NOUS41 KWBC 281838



Service Change Notice 17-54

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD

238 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017


To:       Subscribers:

            -NOAA Weather Wire Service

            -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network


            Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees


From:     Dave Myrick

          NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration


Subject:  HYSPLIT Wildfire Smoke Prediction Update:

          Effective June 13, 2017


Effective on or about Tuesday, June 13, 2017, beginning with the

0600 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers

for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the HYSPLIT

wildfire smoke prediction capability over CONUS, Alaska and



The scope of this upgrade includes:


Replace the current U.S. Forest Service BlueSky fire emission

module (BSF) with an updated version (BSF v3.5.1) that provides

wildfire smoke emissions to HYSPLIT smoke prediction for CONUS,

Alaska, Hawaii and to PM2.5 predictions from Community Multi-

scale Air Quality (CMAQ) for CONUS. 


The updated BlueSky version 3.5.1 has:


- The Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2

(FCCS2), which includes a more detailed description of the fuel

loadings with additional plant type categories

- Improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production

system (FEPS)

- Explicit fuel load map for Alaska (HYSPLIT only)


The expected impact of these changes includes:


- Improved wildfire smoke predictions for CONUS, Alaska and

Hawaii, especially from large forest fires


Predictions from the updated HYSPLIT model will be made available

through a parallel feed at the following:


Experimental HYSPLIT smoke predictions over CONUS, Alaska and

Hawaii will be available on the EMC air quality web page at:


Verification statistics of both HYSPLIT operational and

experimental predictions compared to the GOES satellite smoke

mask is found here: 


With this upgrade there are no changes to any output. Current

HYSPLIT smoke prediction files are available at the following web



NWS Services:


NCEP Services:


Web graphics:


For questions regarding the updated model forecast guidance,

please contact:


Ivanka Stajner


Silver Spring, MD



For questions regarding the data flow, please contact:


Carissa Klemmer

NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team Lead

College Park, MD



NWS Service Change Notices are online at: