NOUS41 KWBC 151211 PNSWSH TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 07-11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 711 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES FROM: PAUL HIRSCHBERG CHIEF...SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/ SUBJECT: NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM EXPANDS FROM 14 TO 20 MEMBERS: EFFECTIVE MARCH 27 2007 EFFECTIVE TUESDAY MARCH 27 2007...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ MODEL CYCLE...NCEP WILL BEGIN PRODUCING SIX ADDITIONAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER GRIDDED DATA SETS PER CYCLE FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM /GEFS/ OPERATIONAL JOB SUITE. THESE SIX NEW PERTURBATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH EACH OF THE FOUR DAILY CYCLES ADDING A TOTAL OF TWENTY-FOUR NEW PERTURBATIONS PER DAY. THESE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE PROVIDED IN GRIB2 FORMAT AND WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY /NWSTG/ PUBLIC FTP SERVER AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: FTP://TGFTP.NWS.NOAA.GOV AS WELL AS ON THE NCEP PUBLIC FTP SERVER AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: FTP://FTP.NCEP.NOAA.GOV THE INCREASED MEMBERS WILL IMPROVE THE OVERALL PROBABILISTIC FORECAST SKILL OF THE NCEP GEFS MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER...THE CHANGE IS NOT INTENDED TO IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD NOT DEGRADE THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SKILL. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT: JOE CARR NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7709 EMAIL: JOE.CARR@NOAA.GOV OR JOHN WARD NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD PHONE: 301-763-8000 X7185 EMAIL: JOHN.WARD@NOAA.GOV THIS AND OTHER NWS TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM $$ NNNN