NOUS41 KWBC 171405

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 12-28

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

405 PM EDT Thu May 18 2012

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -Family of Services

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          -Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Matthew Peroutka

          Chief, Product Generation Branch

          Office of Science and Technology

 

Subject:  Implementation of Ensemble Kernel Density Model

          Output Statistics Effective May 29, 2012

 

Effective on or about Tuesday, May 29, 2012, beginning at 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), Ensemble Kernel Density Model

Output Statistics (EKDMOS) will be implemented on NOAA’s Central

Computing System. EKDMOS uses output from the North American

Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) to produce probability

distributions of sensible weather elements. The EKDMOS CONUS

(Alaska) products contain guidance on a 2.5 km Lambert Conformal

(3.0 km Polar Stereographic) grid. These grids cover the same

expanse as the corresponding National Digital Forecast Database

grids. Grids will be generated twice daily, based on the 0000 and

1200 UTC runs of the NAEFS. To express the probability

distribution, grids will be produced for the ensemble mean and

for these 11 non-exceedance probability levels:

 

     .05, .10, .20, .30, .40, .50, .60, .70, .80, .90, and .95

 

The following surface weather elements and time projections will

be available initially:

 

     - 2-m temperature guidance every 3 hours for days 1 to 8,

       then every 6 hours for days 8 to 10 for the ensemble

       mean and 11 non-exceedance probability levels

     - 2-m dewpoint guidance every 3 hours for days 1 to 8,

       then every 6 hours for days 8 to 10 for the ensemble

       mean and 11 non-exceedance probability levels

     - Daytime maximum temperature guidance for days 1 to 14

       for the ensemble mean and 11 non-exceedance probability

       levels

     - Nighttime minimum temperature guidance for days 1 to 14

       for the ensemble mean and 11 non-exceedance probability

       levels

 

Additional weather elements will be added in the future.

 

A web page outlining the EKDMOS products and the NWS server

directory and file structure can be found online at:

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~naefs_ekdmos

 

The grib2 products will be provided as part of the National

Digital Guidance Database (NDGD). These products will initially

be available on the NWS ftp server at:

 

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mo

sekd/AR.conus

 

and:

 

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mo

sekd/AR.alaska

 

On a date to be announced, these products will be disseminated

across the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT.

 

Table 1: Communication Identifiers for the EKDMOS Grib2

         Products for CONUS

 

     WMO HEADING    ELEMENT

 

     LEXXXX KMDL    2-Meter Temperature

     LFXXXX KMDL    2-Meter Dew Point Temperature

     LGXXXX KMDL    Daytime Maximum Temperature

     LHXXXX KMDL    Nighttime Minimum Temperature

 

Table 2: Communication Identifiers for the EKDMOS Grib2 Products

for Alaska

 

     WMO HEADING    ELEMENT

 

     MEXXXX KMDL    2-Meter Temperature

     MFXXXX KMDL    2-Meter Dew Point Temperature

     MGXXXX KMDL    Daytime Maximum Temperature

     MHXXXX KMDL    Nighttime Minimum Temperature

 

Each grib2 element and probability has a unique WMO header.  The

table above lists representations of the WMO headers. A complete

list of EKDMOS WMO headers is available at:

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~naefs_ekdmos/EKDMOS_WMO_Headers.pdf

 

A web page outlining the EKDMOS guidance and the ftp server

structure can be found online at:

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~naefs_ekdmos/

 

For questions regarding the new EKDMOS guidance please contact:

 

      John Wagner

      MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland

      301-713-0056, Ext. 187

      John.L.Wagner@noaa.Gov

     

NWS national Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

 

http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$