NOUS41 KWBC 051509
PNSWSH
Technical
Implementation Notice 13-07
National Weather
Service Headquarters Washington DC
1010 AM EST Tue
Mar 5 2013
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners...and NWS Employees
From: Mark Tew
Chief, Marine and Coastal Services
Branch
Subject: NWS
Transitioning from Deterministic To Probabilistic
Storm Surge Forecasts effective with the
2013 Hurricane Season
Effective with
the 2013 hurricane season and thereafter, the NWS
will no longer provide deterministic Sea, Lake,
and Overland
Flooding from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) model output during tropical
cyclones in an unofficial manner.
The American
Meteorological Society and the National Academies of
Science have
endorsed greater use of probabilistic forecasts by
NWS. For several years, the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) has
been providing probabilistic storm surge products
as part of a
long-term, multiyear NWS effort to improve
communications on
storm surge.
SLOSH
deterministic guidance was informally provided to some
users over the past several years; however, the
deterministic
SLOSH model
output has the potential to conflict with the
official NWS forecast for storm surge and to
interfere with
evacuation decisions from emergency managers.
A description of
the current suite of operational, probabilistic
storm surge guidance products is provided on line
at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml
The NWS will
again provide an experimental suite of probabilistic
storm surge products for 2013 that communicate
inundation in
terms of feet above ground level. This information
will be
provided on an interactive Google Earth background
map and as a
static image. Information on these experimental
products is
available at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/phish
A separate Public
Information Statement on these experimental
products will be disseminated prior to May 15, 2013.
In addition to
the operational and experimental probabilistic
storm surge products, the NWS is also actively
developing
inundation graphics and a storm surge watch/warning.
For technical
questions regarding this notice, please contact:
Jamie Rhome
National Hurricane Center
Storm Surge Team Lead
Miami, FL
33165
305-299-4444
For policy
questions regarding this notice, please contact:
Timothy Schott
NWS Marine and Coastal Services Branch
Silver Spring Maryland 20910
301-713-1677 X122
National
Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$