NOUS41 KWBC 031149 CCA

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 14-11 Corrected

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

750 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2014

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -Family of Services

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

 

From:    Mark Tew

         Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch

 

Subject: Corrected: Experimental Hurricane Inundation Surge

         Height Products will Transition to Operational and be

         Available over the Satellite Broadcast Network and

         NOAAPORT: Effective July 8, 2014 

 

This notice was corrected to provide information as to where to

download data from the National Digital Guidance Database.

 

This notice was amended to provide an effective date of July

8, 2014, and for the guidance being available 1 hour after the

National Hurricane Center (NHC) nominal advisory time (i.e., 

5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm). 

 

Effective July 8, 2014, the experimental Probabilistic Hurricane

Inundation Surge Height (also known as P-Surge above ground

level) guidance, which incorporates tide will become operational

and be made available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN)

and NOAAPORT.

 

The Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height guidance

consists of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and

Atlantic coastal areas:

 

  a) Probabilities, in percent, of inundation exceeding 0

     through 20 feet above ground level, at 1 foot intervals

     (e.g., the probabilities in percent of inundation exceeding

     0, 1, 2, ..., 20 feet)

  b) Heights above ground level that are exceeded by specific

     probabilities ranging from 10 to 50 percent at 10 percent

     intervals

 

Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided

out to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the

overall probability the event will occur at each grid cell from

the start of the run until some specified time (e.g., 0-6 hours,

0-12, 0-18, etc.) and as an incremental probability, defined as

the probability the event will occur sometime during the

specified forecast period (e.g., 0-6 hours, 6-12, 12-18, etc.)

at each grid cell.

 

The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake and Overland

Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the NHC official

advisory and account for track, size, and intensity errors based

on historic errors. 

 

The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or

warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the

continental United States and on a case-by-case basis for

tropical storms.

 

The products will be available 1 hour after the NHC nominal

advisory time (i.e., 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm EDT).

 

The products will be available over SBN and NOAAPORT in GRIB2

format. A complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/mc/psurge_abvground.pdf

 

Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge2.0/

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

On NHC’s webpage only the cumulative above ground level

probability products from 0-78 hours, which will replace the

current above datum products, will be available.  There will

likely be no timing component (e.g., 0-6 hours, 0-12, 0-18,

etc.), however, this could change if resources become available.

 

ESRI shape files and KMZ formats will be available to download

from the above websites. GRIB2 files will be available on the

MDL website above.

 

Additionally, GRIB2 data will be available from the National

Digital Guidance Database in the near future. The above ground

level data will be available here when published:

 

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/AR.conus/vd.AGL

 

For questions regarding this notice, please contact

 

      Arthur Taylor

      National Weather Service

      Meteorological Development Laboratory

      Silver Spring, Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163

      Email: Arthur.Taylor@noaa.gov

        or 

      John Kuhn

      National Weather Service

      Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch

      Silver Spring Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121

      Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov

 

National Public Information Statements are online at:

 

      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$