NOUS41 KWBC 031149 CCA

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 14-12 Corrected

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

750 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2014

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -Family of Services

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

 

From:    Mark Tew

         Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 

 

Subject: Corrected: Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone

         Storm Surge and Tide above Datum Products Will

         Transition to Operational: Effective July 8, 2014 

 

This notice was corrected to provide information as to where to

download data from the National Digital Guidance Database.

 

This notice was amended to provide an effective date of July

8, 2014 and for the guidance being available 1 hour after the

National Hurricane Center (NHC) nominal advisory time (i.e. 5

am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm).  

 

Effective July 8, 2014, the experimental Probabilistic Hurricane

Inundation Surge Height (also known as P-Surge above ground

level) guidance, which incorporates tide will become operational

and be made available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN)

and NOAAPORT. 

 

This is a replacement of the older P-Surge model that did not

incorporate tide and used older National Geodetic Vertical Datum

of 1929 (NGVD-29) bathymetry and topography data.

 

The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above

North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD-88) guidance

consists

of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic

coastal areas:

 

  a) Probabilities, in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2

     through 25 feet above NAVD-88, at 1 foot intervals (e.g.

     2, 3, 4, ..., 25 feet).

  b) Heights, above NAVD-88, that are exceeded by specific

     probabilities ranging from 10 to 90 percent at 10 percent

     intervals.

 

Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided

out to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the

overall probability the event will occur at each grid cell from

the start of the run until 78 hours.

 

The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland

Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the NHC official

advisory and account for track, size, and intensity errors based

on historic errors. 

 

The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or

warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the

continental United States and on a case by case basis for

tropical storms.

 

The products will be available 1 hour after the NHC nominal

advisory time (i.e. 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm EDT).

 

The products will be available over the Satellite Broadcast

Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.  The WMO Headers

used by the older P-Surge model (which did not consider tides

and used the NGVD-29 datum) will be reused by the newer P-Surge

model.  A complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/mc/psurge_abvdatum.pdf

 

Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge2.0/

 

GRIB2, ESRI shape files, and KMZ formats will be available for

download from the above website.

 

Additionally, GRIB2 data will be available from the National

Digital Guidance Database.  The above datum data will be

available here when posted:

 

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/AR.conus/

 

Please note that these files will replace the current P-Surge

1.0 data.  In addition there will be a name change from

ds.surgeexcd to ds.psurgeexcd.

 

For questions regarding this notice, please contact

     

      Arthur Taylor

      National Weather Service

      Meteorological Development Laboratory

      Silver Spring, Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163

      Email: Arthur.Taylor@noaa.gov

   or

      John Kuhn

      National Weather Service

      Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch

      Silver Spring Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121

      Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov

 

National Technical Information Notices are online at:

 

      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$