This bulletin, which was prepared by Mr. Lawrence D. Burroughs of the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Mr. J. Paul Dallavalle of the Techniques Development Laboratory, describes the Great Lakes automated storm surge guidance. Forecasts are generated for Toledo, Ohio, and Buffalo, New York, on Lake Erie and for Essexville and Lakeport, Michigan on Lake Huron. The Lake Erie storm surge forecast system is a dynamical system which uses wind input from the Great Lakes wind forecast system. The Lake Huron storm surge forecast system uses sea level pressure forecasts from the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS).

Prior to withdrawal of the Limited-area Fine-mesh model (LFM) from the NCEP operational job stream, the Lake Erie storm surge system was changed to use the new Great Lakes wind forecasts and the Lake Huron storm surge system was changed to use RAFS output. These changes were implemented in March 1993.

In November 1993, the titles of the forecast bulletin were changed to indicate that the product was NGM (Nested Grid Model - the model used in the RAFS) BASED. Finally, in March 1994, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) bulletin header for these guidance products was changed from FZUS1 KWBC to FQUS20 KWBC.

This bulletin describes these Great Lakes storm surge guidance products, discusses the major changes in the system since 1979, and supersedes Technical Procedures Bulletin No. 275 (NWS, 1979), which is now operationally obsolete.

Full HTML Text or PDF file

National Weather Service
Last Modified: November 03, 1997