This bulletin, which was prepared by Mr. Lawrence D. Burroughs of the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Dr. Wilson A. Shaffer of the Techniques Development Laboratory, describes the automated statistical extratropical storm surge guidance for 12 points along the east coast of the United States from Portland, Maine to Charleston, South Carolina (National Weather Service, 1978a) and beach erosion guidance for east coast beaches from Maine through South Carolina (National Weather Service, 1980). The storm surge guidance uses sea level pressure forecasts from the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) (National Weather Service 1985). This bulletin also discusses the development and demise of the east coast marine guidance package (National Weather Service 1979b).

Prior to withdrawal of the Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM) model (Newell and Deaven 1981) from the NCEP operational job stream, the east coast storm surge system was changed to use RAFS output. These changes were implemented in March 1993.

In November 1993, the part titles of the forecast bulletin were changed to include NGM (Nested Grid Model - the model used in the RAFS) BASED. Finally, in March 1994, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) bulletin header for these guidance products was changed from FZUS3 KWBC to FQUS21 KWBC.

This bulletin describes these remaining east coast guidance products, discusses the major changes in the system since 1979, and supersedes Technical Procedures Bulletins No. 226, 278, and 280 (National Weather Service 1978a, 1979b, and 1980), which are now operationally obsolete.


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National Weather Service
Last Modified: November 03, 1997