NOUS41 KWBC 171226
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Headquarters
830 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2012
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees
From: David Soroka
Acting Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch
Subject: Soliciting comments for Experimental Probabilistic
Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance Products through
November 30, 2012
As part of a long term effort to improve communications on storm surge and to reduce confusion among users with the various tidal and geodetic vertical datums, the NWS is providing storm surge information and guidance in terms of feet above ground level, i.e., inundation.
Effective June 1, 2012, and continuing through November 30, 2012, NWS is seeking user feedback on Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance Products.
The Experimental Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance products consist of two suites of probabilities for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas:
1. Probabilities, in percent, of inundation exceeding 0 through
20 feet above ground level, at 1 foot intervals(e.g., the
probabilities in percent, of inundation exceeding 0 feet,
2. Probabilities of inundation heights (above ground level) being
exceeded. The suite of products range from 10 to 50 percent,
at 10 percent intervals.
Each of the probabilities mentioned above will be provided out
to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the overall
probability the event will occur at each grid cell from the start
of the run until some specified time (e.g., 0-6 hours, 0-12,
probability the event will occur sometime during the specified
forecast period (e.g., 0-6 hours, 6-12, 12-18, etc.,) at each
The current series of probabilistic inundation products do not account for tide, waves, and fresh water, i.e., precipitation runoff and river inflow. The products are based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and accounts for track, size, and intensity errors based on historical errors.
NWS is also developing a next generation of probabilistic tropical cyclone inundation guidance products, which will incorporate tide. A Technical Information Notice will be sent before the commencement of these products.
The probabilistic inundation products will only be generated when hurricane watches and/or warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the continental United States. When produced, graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:
ESRI shape files, KMZ and GRIB2 formats will also be available for download from the above website.
Users are encouraged to provide feedback on these experimental products by using the brief survey form available on line at:
Planning is underway to provide the Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance Products in GRIB2 format via the NWS Telecommunication Gateway in the future.
If you have questions regarding this notice, please contact:
National Weather Service
Marine and Coastal Services Branch
Silver Spring Maryland 20910
National Public Information Statements are online at: