NOUS41 KWBC 291454 AAA

PNSWSH

 

Public Information Statement, Comment Request, Amended

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

1054 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2012

 

To:        Subscribers:

           -Family of Services

           -NOAA Weather Wire Service

           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:      Mark Tew

           Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch 

 

Subject:   Amended: Soliciting Comments for Experimental Wind

           Speed Probabilities-Based Tropical Cyclone Danger

           Graphic through November 30, 2012

 

Amended to state that if the experimental product receives favorable comments and is approved for operational implementation, the current product will be discontinued.

 

The NWS Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) is seeking user feedback on its experimental wind speed probabilities-based tropical cyclone danger graphic through November 30, 2012.

 

TAFB is providing an experimental Tropical Cyclone Danger Area Graphic based on the 34-kt wind speed probabilities through
72 hours. The graphic is based on the latest tropical cyclone advisory for an active tropical cyclone.  The graphic outlines avoidance areas using the 10 percent and 50 percent 34-kt wind speed probability contours from the latest tropical cyclone advisory issuances for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.  The current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic uses the mariners 1-2-3 rule to outline avoidance areas for active tropical cyclones.  Feedback from users indicated that the 1-2-3 methodology has led to "over-warned" large avoidance areas.

 

If at the end of the evaluation period, the experimental Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic receives favorable comments and is approved for operational implementation, the current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic, which uses the mariners 1-2-3 rule,  will be discontinued.

 

In the event there are no active tropical cyclones in either basin, the graphic will be blank with the following wording THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC or THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

 

These experimental tropical cyclone danger area graphics are available four times daily at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

 

More details on the tropical cyclone danger area graphic are posted at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/danger/

 

Users are encouraged to provide feedback on this experimental product by using the brief survey and comment form available on line at:

 

     http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=TCDWBP

 

A link to all NHC experimental products is also provided at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutexperimental.shtml

 

If you have comments or questions please contact:

 

Hugh Cobb

Chief, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

National Hurricane Center

E-mail: Hugh.Cobb@noaa.gov

Phone:  305-229-4454

 

National Public Information Statements are available on line at:

 

      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

 

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