NOUS41 KWBC 241918



Public Information Statement, Comment Request

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

317 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2013


To:†††††† Subscribers:

††††††††† -Family of Services

††††††††† -NOAA Weather Wire Service

††††††††-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

††††††††† -NOAAPORT

††††††††† Other NWS partners and employees


From:†††† Cynthia Abelman

††††††††† Chief, Aviation Services Branch


Subject:Soliciting Comments on the Experimental Aviation

††††††††† Summer Weather Dashboard June 26, 2013, to

††††††††† October 31, 2013


NWS is soliciting comments on the Experimental Summer Weather

Dashboard from June 26, 2013 and October 31, 2013.


The Experimental Aviation Summer Weather Dashboard depicts the

potential of convective weather impact to the Core 30 airport

minus Honolulu. The web display, updated four times per day,

shows the potential impact to each airspace through a matrix of

color coded boxes that depict nominal (green), slight (yellow),

moderate (orange), and high (red) likelihood of occurrence out

through the Day 2 forecast. The probabilistic information is

calculated using the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)

numerical weather prediction system.


The ASWD was developed to support the FAA Traffic Control System

Command Centerís effort to improve long range strategic summer

weather planning by providing guidance on weather impacts at

major airports.


The Experimental Aviation Summer Weather Dashboard is only

available at:


The dashboard renders the likelihood of weather occurring around

airports, approaches, ARTCCs, and airways (referred to as areas

of interest (AOI) at hourly forecast intervals for the first 15

hours of the SREF forecast, and 3-hour intervals for an

additional 36 hours. The calibrated probability of thunder is

used to determine the probability assigned to each area of

interest for each forecast period. Additionally, a forecast of

convective cloud tops is also shown for each AOI and forecast



Probabilities for airports are calculated by sampling the SREF

forecast within a specified distance from the terminal. For

airways and approaches, the forecast is determined by using

values within a specified distance from the center line of the

airway or standard approach. The likelihood for each ARTCC is a

summary measure of the airway segments that fall within that

ARTCC. The scientific algorithm that produces the likelihood

(nominal, slight, moderate or high) uses probabilistic

information derived from the SREF along with empirically created

thresholds for each weather phenomenon depicted.


Submit comments via our brief online form:


For questions about this experimental forecast, please contact:


Michael Pat Murphy

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Aviation Weather Center

Kansas City, MO 64153

Phone: 816-584-72048†††



NWS Technical Implementation Notices are online at: