NOUS41 KWBC 151210



Public Information Statement, Comment Request

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

811 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2013 


To:         Subscribers:

           -Family of Services

           -NOAA Weather Wire Service

           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees


From:      Mark Tew

           Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 


Subject:   Extension of Comment Period for Experimental Wind

           Speed Probabilities-Based Tropical Cyclone Danger

           Graphic From May 13, 2013, Through November 30, 2013.


The NWS Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) is extending

the user feedback period for its experimental wind speed

probabilities-based tropical cyclone danger graphic into the

2013 hurricane season. The period is from May 15, 2013, through

November 30, 2013.


The current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic uses the

mariners 1-2-3 rule to outline avoidance areas for active

tropical cyclones. Some users feel the 1-2-3 methodology has led

to over-warned large avoidance areas.


For the 2012 Hurricane Season, TAFB provided an experimental

Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic based on the 34-kt wind

speed probabilities. The graphic goes out through 72 hours from

the latest active tropical cyclone advisory using the 10% and

50% 34-kt wind speed probability contours. Feedback suggested

that the 10% contour represented a much smaller potential

avoidance area than what is considered adequate for planning

purposes. For the 2013 Hurricane season, the graphic will outline

avoidance areas using the 5% and 50% 34-kt wind speed probability

contours from the latest tropical cyclone advisory issuances for

both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. 


When there are no active tropical cyclones in either basin, the

graphic will be blank with the following wording: THERE IS NO




These experimental tropical cyclone danger area graphics are

available four times daily at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200

Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) on the National Hurricane Center

(NHC) website at:


A comprehensive description of the tropical cyclone danger area

graphic is posted at:


Users are encouraged to provide feedback on this experimental

product by using the brief survey and comment form available on

line at:


A link to all NHC experimental products is also provided at:


If you have comments or questions please contact:


Hugh Cobb

Chief, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

National Hurricane Center


Phone:  305-229-4454


NWS Public Information Statements are online at: