NOUS41 KWBC 101118 AAA

PNSWSH

 

Public Information Statement, Comment Request: Amended

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

720 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014 

 

To:         Subscribers:

           -Family of Services

           -NOAA Weather Wire Service

           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

           -NOAAPORT   

           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:      Mark Tew

           Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 

 

Subject:   Amended: Extension of comment period for Experimental

           Wind Speed Probabilities-Based Tropical Cyclone Danger

           Graphic through November 30, 2014.

 

Amended to extend comment period through November 30, 2014

 

The NWS Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) is extending

the user feedback period for its experimental wind speed

probabilities-based tropical cyclone danger graphic into the 2014

hurricane season. The period is from May 15, 2014, through

November 30, 2014.

 

The current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic uses the

mariners 1-2-3 rule to outline avoidance areas for active

tropical cyclones. Feedback from users indicated that the 1-2-3

methodology has led to over-warned large avoidance areas. For the

2012 and 2013 Hurricane Seasons, TAFB provided, on an

experimental basis, a Tropical Cyclone Danger Area Graphic based

on the 34-kt wind speed probabilities through 72 hours from the

latest tropical cyclone advisory for an active tropical cyclone

using the 10 percent and 50 percent 34 kt wind speed probability

contours. Feedback suggested that the 10 percent contour

represented a much smaller potential avoidance area than what is

considered adequate for planning purposes. For the 2014 Hurricane

season, the graphic will outline avoidance areas using the 5

percent and 50 percent 34-kt wind speed probability contours from

the latest tropical cyclone advisory issuances for both the

Atlantic and East Pacific basins. 

 

In the event there are no active tropical cyclones in either

basin, the graphic will be blank with the following wording:

 

THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC or THERE IS

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

 

These experimental tropical cyclone danger area graphics are

available four times daily at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200

Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) on the National Hurricane Center

(NHC) website at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#graphical

 

A comprehensive description of the tropical cyclone danger area

graphic is posted at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/danger/

 

Users are encouraged to provide feedback on this experimental

product by using the brief survey and comment form available on

line at:

 

     http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=TCDWBP

 

A link to all NHC experimental products is also provided at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutexperimental.shtml

 

If you have comments or questions please contact:

 

Hugh Cobb

Chief, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

National Hurricane Center

E-mail: Hugh.Cobb@noaa.gov

Phone:  305-229-4454

 

National NWS Public Information Statements are on line at:

 

      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

 

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