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Public Information Statement 15 Updated

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD

240 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

 

From:   Fiona Horsfall

         Chief, Climate Services Branch

 

Subject: Updated: Soliciting comments on Experimental

         Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlooks through April 15, 2018

 

Updated to extend the comment period for the experimental 

Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlooks through April 15, 2018, to

improve the skill of the forecasts and to gather additional

feedback. The experimental Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlooks will

become operational on or about May 15, 2017 (See SCN17-48).

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-48week3-4temp.htm

 

The operational Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook and the

experimental Week 3-4 precipitation outlooks are online at:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/index.php

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Please provide feedback on the experimental Weeks 3-4

precipitation outlooks at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=EXWK34Precip

 

Effective September 18, 2015, and continuing through April 15,

2018, the NWS is seeking user feedback on experimental 

Weeks 3-4 precipitation outlooks.

 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues temperature and

precipitation outlooks for the Week-2 and 1-month outlook

periods. At the current time, no products exist for the

intermediate time scale (i.e., Weeks 3-4) between these two

forecast time horizons. The CPC seeks to close this gap in the

NWS seamless suite of outlooks by release of this new

experimental product. The objective of the product is to

highlight regions where above or below average 2-week mean

temperature and total precipitation are favored as well as

provide advance notice of potential temperature and

precipitation pattern changes to further assist decision makers

in weather and climate sensitive activities in their decisions. 

 

The audience for this experimental product includes:

- NWS local and regional field structure

- Local, state, regional and national government entities

  (emergency management and planning)

- Private sector (energy, water resource management,

  financial, etc. industries)

- Public and other users

 

The experimental Weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation

outlook maps consist of two categories (above- or below-

average). The shading depicts the favored category, either

above-average (A) or below-average (B) for 2-week mean

temperature or 2-week total accumulated precipitation with the

solid contour lines giving the probability (>50%) of this more

likely category (above or below).

 

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperature or 

2-week total accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to

climatological probabilities and a category cannot be favored,

equal chances (EC: 50% probability for each category) is

indicated. In addition, a text prognostic map discussion will

be provided explaining the rationale behind the forecast. The

outlooks will be issued weekly on Fridays between 3 pm and 4 pm

Eastern time.

 

Further information on the experimental Week 3-4 temperature

and precipitation outlooks can be found in the Product

Description Document located at:

 

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD_CPC_Week3-4 Outlooks.pdf

 

The experimental Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation

outlooks can be accessed at:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/index.php

 

Please provide feedback on the outlooks at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=EW34TPO

 

For questions regarding this notice, please contact:

 

Jon Gottschalck

Chief, Operational Prediction Branch

NWS/Climate Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Telephone:  301-683-3349

Email:  Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov

 

National Public Information Statements are online at:

 

       http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

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