NOUS41 KWBC 292044                                                  
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 03-27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
435 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

TO        FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
          WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
          WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
          NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
          /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM      ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
          CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
                    
SUBJECT   ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED MAY 19 2003

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ WILL ISSUE THE HURRICANE
OUTLOOK FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON MONDAY MAY 19 2003 AROUND 
100 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME UNDER THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT
IDENTIFIERS...

          WMO HEADING         AWIPS ID
          FXNT20 KWNC         PMDAHU

THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE ISSUED ON THE CPC WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER
CASE LETTERS/

     http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html

THE OUTLOOK...VALID UNTIL NOVEMBER 30 2003...INCLUDES THE
ATLANTIC...GULF OF MEXICO...AND CARRIBEAN.   CPC ISSUES THIS
OUTLOOK IN COOPERATION WITH THE NWS TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND
NOAA/S HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.  THE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED IN
EARLY AUGUST 2003.

CPC WILL PROVIDE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ACTIVITY.  CPC USES
A DEFINITION OF OVERALL ACTIVITY REFLECTING A COMBINATION OF
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES.  THESE MEASURES OF OVERALL ACTIVITY ARE A MUCH BETTER
INDICATOR THAN THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES ALONE.  
CPC PROVIDES AN ACCOMPANYING PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION DETAILING THE
ATMOSPHERIC...OCEANIC...AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE LEVEL
OF ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
AT THE URL ADDRESS ABOVE.

THIS OUTLOOK REPRESENTS OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE EXPECTED OVERALL
LEVEL OF ACTIVITY FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  NO OUTLOOK CAN GIVE 
CERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A PARTICULAR LOCALITY WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A HURRICANE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR.  RESIDENTS AND
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES OF COASTAL OR NEAR-COASTAL REGIONS SHOULD
ALWAYS MAINTAIN HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS EFFORTS...REGARDLESS OF THE
OVERALL OUTLOOK FOR A GIVEN YEAR.

FAR MORE DAMAGE CAN BE DONE BY ONE MAJOR HURRICANE HITTING A
HEAVILY POPULATED AREA THAN BY SEVERAL HURRICANES HITTING SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS OR...OF COURSE...NOT MAKING LANDFALL AT ALL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HURRICANE-SPAWNED DISASTERS CAN OCCUR EVEN IN
YEARS WITH NORMAL /OR BELOW-NORMAL/ LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT

PRIMARY CONTACT
     GERALD D BELL          
     NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER W/NP52      
     5200 AUTH RD              
     CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
     PHONE  /301/ 763-8000 EXT 7536 

BACKUP CONTACT
     MUTHUVEL CHELLIAH
     NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER W/NP52      
     5200 AUTH RD                
     CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
     PHONE  /301/ 763-8000 EXT 7546 

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE/:

          http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

$$
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