NOUS41 KWBC 271153
PNSWSH

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
754 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

TO:      FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
         WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
         WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... 
         NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES	  

FROM:    ELI JACKS
         CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CHANGES IN HPC NON-TECHNICAL WINTER LOW TRACK WEB 
	 GRAPHIC: EFFECTIVE SEPTEMBER 15 2006  

EFFECTIVE FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 15 2006...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR 
ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL MAKE THE NON-TECHNICAL 
WINTER LOW TRACK WEB GRAPHIC OPERATIONAL.  

NOTE: THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY TRANSMITTED ON THE WEB.

CONCURRENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NON-
TECHNICAL WINTER LOW GRAPHIC ... THE NCEP HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL 
PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ WILL MAKE THE FOLLOWING TWO CHANGES TO 
THE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT:
  
1.  THE INITIAL POSITION OF EXISTING LOWS AT 00 UTC OR 12 UTC 
    WILL BE DEPICTED BY A RED DOT /WITHOUT CIRCLES/.
  
2.  THE YELLOW CIRCLES AROUND EACH FORECAST LOW POSITION WILL 
    REPRESENT A 75 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT THE OBSERVED LOW WILL 
    BE WITHIN THE CIRCLE. THE PROBABILITY IS DERIVED FROM THE 
    PREVIOUS SEASONS VERIFICATION DATA.  DURING THE LAST WINTER 
    WEATHER SEASON... THE YELLOW CIRCLES REPRESENTED THE AVERAGE 
    HISTORICAL ERROR IN LOW TRACK POSITION AT A GIVEN VALID TIME
    ...E.G. H+12 HOURS... H+24 HOURS. 

USERS CAN FIND THE EXISTING LOW TRACK GRAPHIC AT /USE LOWER CASE 
LETTERS/:

     HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/LOWTRACK_PUBLIC.GIF

A SAMPLE OF THE REVISED PRODUCT IS AVAILABLE AT /USE LOWER CASE 
LETTERS/:
                                    
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/WWDCHANGES20062007/NEW_LOWTRACK
_PUBLIC.GIF 

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE ...PLEASE CONTACT: 

     KEVIN MCCARTHY
     DEPUTY DIRECTOR...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
     NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
     NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
     5200 AUTH ROAD
     CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND 20746
     PHONE: 301-763-8000 X 7304
     EMAIL: KEVIN.MCCARTHY@NOAA.GOV

           	-OR- 

     ROBERT KELLY
     CHIEF...FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
     NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
     NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
     HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
     5200 AUTH ROAD
     CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND 20746
     PHONE: 301-763-8000 X 7306
     EMAIL: ROBERT.KELLY@NOAA.GOV

THIS AND OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE AT /USE LOWER 
CASE LETTERS/:

          HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

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