NOUS41 KWBC 151700 AAA PNSWSH SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-30...AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION SUBJECT: AMENDED: THE EFFECTIVE DATE FOR THE LOCAL THREE- MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS BECOMING OFFICIAL HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY JANUARY 18 2007. REFER TO: SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 06-30 SENT AUGUST 21 2006 AMENDED FOR A FOUR MONTH DELAY DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES. THE NWS CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION /CSD/ HAS DELAYED THE OFFICIAL ISSUANCE OF THE LOCAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS /L3MTO/ UNTIL THURSDAY JANUARY 18 2007. IN THE MEANTIME CSD WILL CONTINUE EXPERIMENTALLY ISSUING THE L3MTO ON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE /WFO/ CLIMATE WEB PAGES ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH AT 830 AM EASTERN LOCAL TIME. THESE WFO WEB PAGES ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/L3MTO.PHP COMMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCEPTED FROM THE WEBSITE SHOWN ABOVE AND WILL BE CONSIDERED IN PERIODIC WEBSITE REVIEWS FOR POSSIBLE REVISIONS. CSD WILL ISSUE L3MTO CONCURRENTLY WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ NATIONAL 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. L3MTO ARE TAILORED FROM CPC OUTLOOKS TO APPROXIMATELY 1200 SITE-SPECIFIC STATIONS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. /CONUS/ AND ALASKA. CSD WILL ISSUE L3MTO FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 STATIONS IN EACH WFO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN CONUS AND ALASKA. ADDITIONAL SITES AND CLIMATE PARAMETERS ARE PLANNED IN THE FUTURE. L3MTO INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN BOTH GRAPHIC AND TEXT FORMATS. FOR EACH STATION...THE L3MTO PRODUCT SUITE WILL CONSIST OF OUTLOOKS WITH LEAD TIMES FROM 0.5 MONTHS TO 12.5 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THE THIRD THURSDAY IN JANUARY THERE WILL BE AN L3MTO FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL...MARCH THROUGH MAY...APRIL THOUGH JUNE...AND SO ON TO FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR. AN L3MTO WILL CONSIST OF THREE TYPES OF OUTPUT: A. OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE TEMPERATURE CATEGORIES: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE OUTLOOK AS FORECASTED PROBABILITY /IN PERCENT/ THAT THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE WILL FALL INTO EACH OF THREE CATEGORIES: ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. CSD REFERENCE TO NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY COMES FROM THE 30-YEAR /1971-2000/ MEAN 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND CATEGORY LIMITS. CSD DEFINES THE CATEGORIES AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY EQUALLY LIKELY: FOR EXAMPLE...THE TOP 10 CASES OF A 30 YEAR RECORD DEFINE THE ABOVE CATEGORY. THE MIDDLE 10 CASES DEFINE THE NORMAL CATEGORY. THE BOTTOM 10 CASES DEFINE THE BELOW CATEGORY. B. TEMPERATURE RANGE OUTLOOK: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE EXPECTED RANGE OF THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE. EXPECTED RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE PRODUCED FOR FIVE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS OR LEVELS OF EXPECTED CHANCE: 99 PERCENT 95 PERCENT 90 PERCENT 75 PERCENT 50 PERCENT C. PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE/NON EXCEEDENCE /POE...PONE/ OUTLOOKS: CSD WILL EXPRESS THE POE/PONE OUTLOOKS AS THE EXPECTED CHANCE OF THE AVERAGE 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING OR NOT EXCEEDING A PARTICULAR TEMPERATURE VALUE. POE AND PONE ARE PRODUCED FOR 19 PROBABILITY VALUES: 99 PERCENT 98 PERCENT 97 PERCENT 96 PERCENT 95 PERCENT 90 PERCENT 80 PERCENT 70 PERCENT 60 PERCENT 50 PERCENT 40 PERCENT 30 PERCENT 20 PERCENT 10 PERCENT 5 PERCENT 4 PERCENT 3 PERCENT 2 PERCENT 1 PERCENT. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT: MICHAEL J. BREWER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OF CLIMATE...WATER...AND WEATHER SERVICES CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION - W/OS4 1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY SILVER SPRING MD 20910 /301/713-1970 EXT 123 THIS AND ALL OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE POSTED AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM $$ NNNN