NOUS41 KWBC 011949

PNSWSH

 

Service Change Notice 14-54

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

325 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

 

To:        Subscribers:

           -Family of Services

           -NOAA Weather Wire Service

           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

           -NOAAPort

           Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

 

From:      Eli Jacks

           Chief, Fire and Public Weather Services Branch

 

Subject:   Operational Implementation of the Storm Prediction

           Center (SPC) Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks Effective

           December 16, 2014

 

Effective Tuesday, December 16, 2014, at 1500 Coordinated

Universal Time (UTC), SPC will move its Day 4-8 Severe Weather

Outlooks for CONUS from experimental to operational status.

Public comments on the experimental product were very positive.

 

Since May 16, 2014, examples of these outlooks using historical

data have been available at:

 

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy4-8example/

 

After operational implementation, the SPC Day 4-8 Severe Weather

Outlooks will include five separate graphics, one for each day in

the 4-8 cycle. Also, SPC will include areas where the total

severe weather probabilities are at least 15 percent within 25

statute miles of any point. This change is in addition to the 

30 percent total severe threshold currently used.

 

Adding the 15 percent threshold will result in more consistency

between the Day 4-8 graphic and corresponding text discussion and

will help SPC communicate threats earlier in the forecast

process.

 

The following products are available:

 

 WMO Header  AWIPS ID   Description

 ----------  --------   -----------

 ACUS48 KWNS   SWOD48   Days 4-8 Convective Outlook Discussion

 WUUS48 KWNS   PTSD48   Days 4-8 Convective Outlook Areal Outline

 PGNW49 KWNS   RBG44O   Day 4 Red Book Graphic Total Probability

                         of Severe Thunderstorms

 LDIZ48 KWNS    N/A     Day 4 NDFD Total Probability of Severe

                         Thunderstorms

 PGNW50 KWNS   RBG55O   Day 5 Red Book Graphic Total Probability

                         of Severe Thunderstorms

 LDIZ58 KWNS    N/A     Day 5 NDFD Total Probability of Severe

                         Thunderstorms

 PGNW51 KWNS   RBG66O   Day 6 Red Book Graphic Total Probability

                         of Severe Thunderstorms

 LDIZ68 KWNS    N/A     Day 6 NDFD Total Probability of Severe

                         Thunderstorms

 PGNW52 KWNS   RBG77O   Day 7 Red Book Graphic Total Probability

                         of Severe Thunderstorms

 LDIZ78 KWNS    N/A     Day 7 NDFD Total Probability of Severe

                         Thunderstorms

 PGNW53 KWNS   RBG88O   Day 8 Red Book Graphic Total Probability

                         of Severe Thunderstorms

 LDIZ88 KWNS    N/A     Day 8 NDFD Total Probability of Severe

                         Thunderstorms

 

The "points" product (PTSD48) includes labels of "0.15" 

(15 percent) and "0.30" (30 percent). All Day 4-8 Total

Probability of Severe Thunderstorm grid products (LDIZ(4-8)8 and

LK(B-U)Z97) will become probabilistic and contain values of 0, 15

and 30.

 

The Day 4-8 Total Probability of Severe Thunderstorms replaces

the Day 4-8 Categorical Outlooks. The following products will no

longer be produced:

 

 WMO Header    AWIPS ID   Description:

 ----------    --------   -----------

 PGNM98 KWNS   RBG48O     Days 4-8 Red Book Graphic

 LDIZ47 KWNS    N/A       Day 4 NDFD Convective Hazard Outlook

 LDIZ57 KWNS    N/A       Day 5 NDFD Convective Hazard Outlook

 LDIZ67 KWNS    N/A       Day 6 NDFD Convective Hazard Outlook

 LDIZ77 KWNS    N/A       Day 7 NDFD Convective Hazard Outlook

 LDIZ87 KWNS    N/A       Day 8 NDFD Convective Hazard Outlook

 

A Product Description Document will be available on December 16,

2014, at:

 

 http://products.weather.gov/

 

For more information, please contact:

 John Ferree

 NWS Severe Storms Services

 Norman, OK  73072

 john.t.ferree@noaa.gov

 405-325-2209

 

 Steven Weiss

 NWS Storm Prediction Center

 Norman, OK  73072

 steven.j.weiss@noaa.gov

 405-325-2073

 

National Service Change Notices are online at:

 

 http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$