NOUS41 KWBC 311610 AAB

PNSWSH

 

Service Change Notice 17-22 Updated

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD

1210 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Dave Myrick

          NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

 

Subject:  Updated: Changes to LAMP and Gridded LAMP ceiling and

visibility guidance and to the dissemination of GLMP

wind gusts and probabilities of ceiling height and

visibility effective April 3, 2017

 

Updated effective date to Monday, April 3, 2017, starting with

the 1100 UTC cycle due to critical weather day

 

On or about Monday, April 3, 2017, beginning with the 1100

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement

changes to the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics

Program (LAMP) station-based and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) guidance.

 

LAMP station-based guidance is produced at more than 1600

stations in the Continental U.S. (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii and

Puerto Rico.  GLMP guidance is generated on a 2.5-km Lambert

Conformal grid over the CONUS. LAMP station-based forecasts and

GLMP gridded observations and gridded forecasts (1 to 25 hour

projections) are produced hourly. These products are

disseminated on the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN),

NOAAPORT, and are available in the operational National Digital

Guidance Database (NDGD).

 

Specific changes are as follows:

 

1. The LAMP system is being upgraded to statistically

incorporate model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh

(HRRR) model for the following weather elements at stations

over the CONUS:

 

   - Categorical ceiling height forecasts

   - Probabilities of categorical ceiling height

   - Categorical visibility forecasts

   - Probabilities of categorical visibility

 

The LAMP station data over Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico are

not being upgraded at this time.

 

2. The GLMP system is being upgraded to statistically

incorporate model output from the HRRR model for the following

weather elements on a grid covering the CONUS domain:

 

   - Ceiling height forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than 500 ft. forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than 1000 ft. forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than or equal to

     3000 ft. forecasts

   - Visibility forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than 1 mile forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than 3 miles forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than or equal to 5 miles

     forecasts

 

The analysis fields of ceiling height and visibility

observations will be unchanged.

 

3. In June 2016, the GLMP system was upgraded to provide

gridded guidance over the CONUS for:

 

   - 10m wind gusts observations

   - 10m wind gusts forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than 500 ft. forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than 1000 ft. forecasts

   - Probability of ceiling height less than or equal to 3000

     ft. forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than 1 mile forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than 3 miles forecasts

   - Probability of visibility less than or equal to 5 miles

     forecasts

 

At that time, it was determined that the above, then-new, GLMP

products would not be disseminated on the SBN or NOAAPORT until

such time as there was sufficient bandwidth available to

accommodate these new products. On implementation day, the GLMP

guidance for the above products will begin to be available on

the SBN and NOAAPORT.

 

No changes are being made with this implementation to the LAMP

stations for which guidance is provided, the WMO headers

associated with these products, the format of any of the

guidance products in LAMP or GLMP, or to the grid definition

for which GLMP guidance is provided.  These changes only impact

LAMP guidance over the CONUS.

 

Benefits of the system changes include improved forecast skill

of upgraded forecast elements over the CONUS through

redevelopment of linear regression equations and incorporation

of the HRRR-based predictors and added ability to resolve the

weather conditions over the CONUS that are depicted by the HRRR

model

 

All other LAMP and GLMP guidance is unchanged with this

implementation.

 

Because the LAMP ceiling height and visibility guidance

products have been updated to include predictors from the HRRR

model and no other LAMP guidance has been updated, it is

possible we will see  an increase in inter-element

inconsistencies between the LAMP guidance including the HRRR

model input and the LAMP guidance not including the HRRR model

input.  This difference is most likely to be noticed with the

LAMP guidance for visibility and obstruction to vision. The

other LAMP elements will be upgraded in the future to

incorporate output from the HRRR model that will minimize

such inconsistencies.

 

Before implementation, images of the upgraded guidance can be

found at the Experimental LAMP website:

 

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_experimental

 

Once these changes are implemented, the products will be

available on the main LAMP website:

 

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_home

 

More details about LAMP/GLMP products and this implementation

can be found online at the LAMP Documentation web site:

 

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_docs

 

Dissemination:

With this upgrade the elements withheld from the last upgrade

will now be added to NOAAPORT/SBN. Please reference the

following Technical Implementation Notice for those details:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin16-13griddedlampaaa.htm

 

There are no other changes to the dissemination with this

implementation. The LAMP and GLMP products continue to be

available in operational NDGD, SBN, NOAAPORT and the 

NWS server.

 

Details for the locations of the LAMP and GLMP products on the

NWS web servers can be found here:

 

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_NWS_tgftp_server

 

Complete lists of LAMP and GLMP WMO headers can be found here:

 

LAMP headers:

http://www.weather.gov/media/mdl/lampheaders_201403.pdf

 

GLMP headers:

http://www.weather.gov/media/mdl/glmpheaders_2016.pdf

 

The communication identifiers for the LAMP text and BUFR

products are shown in Tables 1 and 2 below.

 

Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP

products in ASCII format. Listed below are the WMO heading and

the AWIPS identifier.

 

WMO heading     AWIPS ID

-----------     --------

FOUS11 KWNO     LAVUSA

 

Table 2: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP

products in BUFR format.  Listed below are the WMO headings.

 

WMO heading     Region

-----------     ------

JSMF10 KWNO     LAMP BUFR Pacific Region

JSMF11 KWNO     LAMP BUFR Northeast Region

JSMF12 KWNO     LAMP BUFR Southeast Region

JSMF13 KWNO     LAMP BUFR North Central Region

JSMF14 KWNO     LAMP BUFR South Central Region

JSMF15 KWNO     LAMP BUFR Rocky Mountains Region

JSMF16 KWNO     LAMP BUFR West Coast Region

JSMF17 KWNO     LAMP BUFR Alaska Region

 

The communication identifiers for the GRIB2 products are shown

below in Tables 3 and 4.

 

Table 3:  Communication identifiers for the Gridded LAMP

ceiling height and visibility observation products in GRIB2

format

 

Listed below are representations of the WMO header: xx

represents the valid UTC hour (00-23).

 

WMO HEADER      ELEMENT

-----------     -------

LCUAxx KMDL     Gridded ceiling height observations

LDUAxx KMDL     Gridded visibility observations

 

Table 4:  Communication identifiers for the Gridded LAMP

ceiling height and visibility forecast products in GRIB2 format

 

Listed below are representations of the WMO header: xx

represents the forecast projections (01-25).  For details about

the superheaders of these products, please refer to the link

for the GLMP headers referenced above.

 

WMO HEADER      ELEMENT

-----------     -------

LMUAxx KMDL     Gridded ceiling height forecasts

LNUAxx KMDL     Gridded visibility forecasts

LMUCxx KMDL     Gridded probability of ceiling height less than

                500 ft. forecasts

LMUDxx KMDL     Gridded probability of ceiling height less than

                1000 ft. forecasts

LMUFxx KMDL     Gridded probability of ceiling height less than

                or equal to 3000 ft. forecasts

LNUCxx KMDL     Gridded probability of visibility less than

                1 mile forecasts

LNUExx KMDL     Gridded probability of visibility less than

                3 miles forecasts

LNUFxx KMDL     Gridded probability of visibility less than or

                equal to 5 miles forecasts

 

A consistent parallel feed of data will be made available in

the near future on the NCEP HTTP site.  The data will be

available at the following URLs:

 

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/lmp

 

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/glmp

 

For questions, comments or requests regarding this

implementation, contact:

 

Judy Ghirardelli

National Weather Service

Meteorological Development Laboratory

Judy.Ghirardelli@noaa.gov

301-427-9496

 

Links to the LAMP products and descriptions can be found at:

 

    http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp_home

 

National Service Change Notices are online at:

 

    http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

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