NOUS41 KWBC 011920

PNSWSH

 

Service Change Notice 17-55

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD

320 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017 

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Dave Myrick

          NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

 

Subject:  Air Quality Prediction Update:

          Effective June 13, 2017

 

Effective on or about Tuesday, June 13, 2017, beginning with

the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National

Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the 

Air Quality Model (AQM) capability over CONUS only. The AQM uses

the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system to

provide ozone and fine particulate matter air quality

predictions.

 

This upgrade will do the following:

 

- Update the chemical transport model to CMAQ V5.0.2

- Update the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) 2011 Point

Source Emissions to projections for 2017

- Update U.S. Forest Service BlueSky smoke emissions system to

V3.5.1

- Add 24-hour "analysis cycle" to include wildfire emissions

when they were observed

- Update the bias correction technique for fine particulate

matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance to the Kalman Filter Analog

technique (KFAN)

- Update dust-related aerosol species at the CMAQ lateral

boundaries to use the NEMS Global Aerosol Capability (NGAC) V2

forecasts

 

The expected impact of these changes includes:

 

- Improved raw and bias corrected fine particulate matter

  (PM2.5) products especially near wild fires

- Improved summertime surface ozone predictions especially in

coastal areas

 

NOTE: These changes will only be applicable to CONUS results.

Alaska and Hawaii will continue using CMAQ v4.

 

Predictions for the updated AQM over the CONUS region will be

made available through a parallel feed at the following

location:

  http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/aqm/para/

 

Experimental CMAQ ozone and PM2.5 predictions over CONUS will be

available on the EMC air quality web page at:  

  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/cmaq/web/html

 

Experimental CMAQ bias corrected PM2.5 predictions over CONUS

will be available on the EMC air quality web page at:

  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/cmaqparabc/web/html

 

I. Current Output Changes

 

Output files can be found on the following sites

 

NCEP services:

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/aqm/prod/

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/aqm/prod/

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/aqm/prod/

 

 

NWS services:

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.conus/

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.conus

 

Web graphics:

http://airquality.weather.gov/

 

1) The forecast time range header for the ozone daily maximum

files will be corrected.

06 UTC data is available on NWS servers with these names:

 - ds.mozone01.bin Day 1 will change to "-1-22 forecast hours"

from "-2-21 hour"

 - ds.mozone08.bin Day 2 will change to "29-52 forecast hours"

from "30-49 hour"

12 UTC data is available on the NWS servers with these names:

 - ds.mozone01.bin Day 1 will change to "-7-16 hour" from "-8-15

hour"

 - ds.mozone08.bin Day 2 will change to "23-46 hour" from "24-47

hour"

 

06 UTC data is available on the NCEP servers with these names:

 - aqm.t06z.max_1hr_o3.227.grib2 Day 1 will change to "-1-22

hour" from "-2-21 hour"

 - aqm.t06z.max_8hr_o3.227.grib2 Day 2 will change to "29-52

hour" from "30-49 hour"

12 UTC data is available on the NCEP servers with these names:

 - aqm.t12z.max_1hr_o3.227.grib2 Day 1 will change to "-7-16

hour" from "-8-15 hour"

 - aqm.t12z.max_8hr_o3.227.grib2 Day 2 will change to "23-46

hour" from "24-47 hour"

 

2) All output CONUS files will increase in size as land-water

bit mask is included, but variables and extent will remain

unchanged.  

 

II. New Products

 

1) CONUS domain raw and bias corrected PM2.5 prediction files

will be sent to the NWS website for the National Digital

Guidance Database (NDGD). 

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.conus

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.conus

 

 

 - 1 hour average PM2.5 raw and bias corrected (_bc) predictions

on AWIPS 227 CONUS 5 km grid through 48 forecast hours:

   ds.apm25h01.bin 

   ds.apm25h01_bc.bin

 

 - 24 hour average daily PM2.5 raw and bias corrected (_bc)

predictions on AWIPS 227 CONUS 5 km grid (Day 1 and Day 2

forecasts):

  ds.apm25h24.bin

  ds.apm25h24_bc.bin

 

 - 1 hour average daily maximum PM2.5 raw and bias corrected

(_bc) predictions on AWIPS 227 CONUS 5 km grid (Day 1 and Day 2

forecasts):

  ds.mpm25h01.bin

  ds.mpm25h01_bc.bin

 

 - The updated PM2.5 products and maps will be made publicly

available from the www.airquality.gov web site at a later time.

 

2) Adding the following raw and bias CONUS 5km corrected fine

particulate matter (PM2.5) files to the NCEP services:

 

- 1hr average daily maximum PM2.5 (day 1 and day 2)

  aqm.tCCz.max_1hr_pm25.227.grib2

- Daily 24hr average PM2.5 (day 1 and day 2)

  aqm.tCCz.ave_24hr_pm25.227.grib2

- Bias corrected 1hr average daily maximum PM2.5 (day 1 and day

2)

  aqm.tCCz.max_1hr_pm25_bc.227.grib2

- Bias corrected daily 24hr average PM2.5 (day 1 and day 2)

  aqm.tCCz.ave_24hr_pm25_bc.227.grib2

 

  Where CC is cycle (06, 12)

 

- 1hr average PM2.5 for forecast hours 00-48

  aqm.tCCz.ave_1hr_pm25.227.grib2

- Bias corrected 1hr average PM2.5 for forecast hours 00-48

  aqm.tCCz.ave_1hr_pm25_bc.227.grib2

 

  Where CC is cycle (00, 06, 12, 18)

 

III. Product Removals

 

The following files will be removed from the NCEP Services sites

 

 - aqm.tCCz.pm25.fHH.148.grib2

where CC is cycle (00,06,12,18) and HH is hour(00-48)

Users can instead find the hourly data combined in the higher

resolution file:

  aqm.tCCz.ave_1hr_pm25.227.grib2

 

 - aqm.tCCz.pm25_bc.fHH.148.grib2 

where CC is cycle( 00,06,12,18) and HH is hour(00-48)

Users can instead find the hourly data combined in the higher

resolution file:

  aqm.tCCz.ave_1hr_pm25_bc.227.grib2

 

 

For questions regarding these updated model forecast guidance,

please contact:

 

 Ivanka Stajner

 NOAA/NWS/STI

 Silver Spring, MD 20910

 ivanka.stajner@noaa.gov

 301-427-9103

 

For questions regarding the data flow, please contact:

 

 Carissa Klemmer

 NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team

 College Park, MD

 ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@noaa.gov

 301-683-0567

 

NWS Service Change Notices are online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

 

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