NOUS41 KWBC 291538



Technical Implementation Notice 12-06

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

1048 AM Wed EST Feb 29, 2012


To:         Subscribers:

            Family of Services

            NOAA Weather Wire Service

            Emergency Managers Weather Information Network


            Other NWS partners and employees


From:       Cynthia Abelman

            Chief, Aviation Services Branch


Subject:    Extended Convective Forecast Product

            Operational April 16, 2012


Effective Monday, April 16, 2012, at 1800 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the NWS Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, MO, will implement the Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) as an operational product. On that date, ECFP will be available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.


The ECFP Planning Tool is a graphic showing the forecast probability of thunderstorms. The product identifies where in the United States thunderstorms are likely to occur in 6-hour time blocks through 72 hours (Day 3) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF).


This automated graphical forecast is created from the SREF Calibrated Thunderstorm output. Contours are drawn at 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent probability of thunderstorm using CCFP-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40-59 percent probability, solid lined areas represent 60-79 percent probability, and solid blue filled areas represent greater than 80 percent probability. 


NWS developed the ECFP planning tool in response to Federal Aviation Administration needs to plan for weather hazards, specifically convection, 1-2 days in advance. To meet these planning needs, and to support CCFP planning beyond 6 hours, the ECFP is intended to provide traffic planners and collaborators a quick-look forecast of the greatest probability of convection/thunderstorms. By using CCFP-style graphics, users familiar with CCFP can easily determine where traffic constraints are most likely beyond the normal CCFP valid times, including overnight hours, and through Days 2 and 3.


The experimental ECFP can be accessed at


On April 16, the operational product will be online at:


If you have any questions or comments about this change, or the ECFP service, please contact:


Michael Pat Murphy

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Aviation Weather Center

Kansas City, MO 64153



National Technical Implementation Notices are online at: