NOUS41 KWBC 041102
AAA
PNSWSH
Technical
Implementation Notice 12-25 Amended
National Weather
Service Headquarters Washington DC
702 AM EDT Mon
Jun 4 2012
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners, Users and
Employees
From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology
Subject: Amended: Update to GFS-based Model Output
Statistics
(MOS) Wind Guidance and resulting
changes to LAMP wind
guidance:
Implementation postponed to June 12, 2012.
Amended to
postpone implementation to June 12, 2012
On Tuesday, June
12, 2012, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated
Universal Time
(UTC) model cycle, the NWS Meteorological
Development
Laboratory will implement new Global Forecast System
(GFS)-based Model
Output Statistics (MOS) wind speed and
direction guidance for sites available in the
short-range (MAV)
and extended-range (MEX) text bulletins. These
new equations
correct bias changes in the GFS model upgrade
implemented May
10, 2011:
www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-07gfs_update_aaa.htm
These changes
also will impact the GFS-based Localized Aviation
MOS
Program (LAMP) beginning with the 1600 UTC Run.
Geographic
expanses of certain vegetation types in the southern
and western United States correspond to areas
where degradation
in the MOS wind guidance was most evident,
particularly in the
warm season. Wind equations are being replaced
for most stations
over the CONUS. The GFS model upgrade has shown
little impact on
MOS guidance over
ocean water so the current set of equations
for all marine stations will remain in place.
Guidance for
stations in Alaska and neighboring Canadian sites
also are not
being replaced at this time because verification
of the new
equations shows a slight degradation in skill.
Three METAR sites
in the West no longer report or do not contain
a sufficient number of wind observations from
which to develop
new equations. Forecasts produced from the old
equations are
significantly degraded. Guidance for wind direction and
speed
will be missing for the following three sites for
all cycles and
projections in the MAV and MEX bulletins:
K4BM
Wilkerson Pass, CO
KBJN
Tonopah Range 74 Nellis AFB, NV
KTDO
Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
As a result of
the GFS MOS change above, LAMP guidance for wind
direction, speed, and gusts will now be missing for
the
following site for all cycles and projections in the
LAMP LAV
bulletins and BUFR messages:
KTDO
Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
In addition,
guidance for wind direction and speed has been
added for the following two Air Force sites for
all cycles and
projections in the Air Force MAV and MEX bulletins:
KBYS
Bicycle Lake Army Airfield, CA
KL35
Big Bear City Airport, CA
These changes will
slightly alter the format of the MAV and MEX
text products because lines for wind direction
and speed will be
added or removed for the 5 sites listed
above. These changes
will slightly alter the format of the LAV text
products because
lines for wind direction, speed, and gusts will be
removed for
the 1 site listed above. The tables below list the
communication identifiers for all products affected by
these
changes.
A temporary
Website has been made available until the new
equations are implemented so users may compare the
current
operational GFS MOS wind speed with the improved GFS MOS
wind
speed guidance.
The comparison page can be found at:
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_wind/
Table 1:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public
text products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
-------------------- ----------------------
FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0
FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0
FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1
FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1
FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1
FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1
FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1
FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1
FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1
FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1
FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1
FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1
FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0
FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0
Table 2:
Communication identifiers for the affected Air Force
MOS
text products.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
--------------------- ----------------------
FOUS30 KWNO MAVF26
FEUS30 KWNO MEXF26
Table
3. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR
products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING WMO HEADING REGION
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
------------ -----------
------------------
JSML30 KWNO JSMT30 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSML31 KWNO JSMT31 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSML32 KWNO JSMT32 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSML33 KWNO JSMT33 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML34 KWNO JSMT34 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML35 KWNO JSMT35 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSML36 KWNO JSMT36 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
Table 4:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public
text product affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA
Table 5:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR
products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING REGION
------------ ---------------
JSMF10 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSMF11 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSMF12 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSMF13 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF14 KWNO
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF15 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSMF16 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
For questions
regarding the update to the GFS MOS wind guidance
and resulting changes to the MAV and MEX
bulletins contact:
Kathryn Gilbert
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0023, Ext. 130
Kathryn.Gilbert@noaa.gov
For questions
regarding the changes to LAMP guidance contact:
Judy Ghirardelli
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0056, Ext. 194
Judy.Ghirardelli@noaa.gov
Links to the MOS
products and descriptions are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop
NWS national
Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$