NOUS41 KWBC 131851

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 14-11

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

152 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -Family of Services

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

 

From:    Mark Tew

         Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 

 

Subject: Experimental Hurricane Inundation Surge Height

         Products will Transition to Operational and be

         Available over the Satellite Broadcast Network and

         NOAAPORT 

 

Effective May 28, 2014, the experimental Probabilistic Hurricane

Inundation Surge Height (also known as P-Surge above ground

level) guidance, which incorporates tide will become operational

and be made available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN)

and NOAAPORT.

 

The Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height guidance

consists of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and

Atlantic coastal areas:

 

  a) Probabilities, in percent, of inundation exceeding 0

     through 20 feet above ground level, at 1 foot intervals

     (e.g., the probabilities in percent of inundation exceeding

     0, 1, 2, ..., 20 feet).

  b) Heights, above ground level, that are exceeded by specific

     probabilities ranging from 10 to 50 percent at 10 percent

     intervals.

 

Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided out

to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the overall

probability the event will occur at each grid cell from the start

of the run until some specified time (e.g. 0-6 hours, 0-12, 0-18,

etc.) and as an incremental probability, defined as the

probability the event will occur sometime during the specified

forecast period (e.g. 0-6 hours, 6-12, 12-18, etc.) at each grid

cell.

 

The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland

Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National

Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track,

size, and intensity errors based on historic errors. 

 

The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or

warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the

continental United States and on a case-by-case basis for

tropical storms.

 

The products will be available over SBN and NOAAPORT in GRIB2

format. A complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/mc/psurge_abvground.pdf

 

Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge2.0/

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

Only the cumulative above ground level probability products from

0-78 hours, which will replace the current above datum products,

will be available.  There will likely be no timing component (e.g.

0-6 hours, 0-12, 0-18, etc.), however this could change if

resources become available. 

 

ESRI shape files and KMZ formats will be available for download

from the above websites.  GRIB2 files will be available on the

first website.

 

For questions regarding this notice...please contact

 

      Arthur Taylor

      National Weather Service

      Meteorological Development Laboratory

      Silver Spring, Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163

      Email: Arthur.Taylor@noaa.gov

 

      or

   

      John Kuhn

      National Weather Service

      Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch

      Silver Spring Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121

      Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov

 

National Public Information Statements are online at:

 

      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$