NOUS41 KWBC 131851

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 14-12

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

152 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -Family of Services

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners...and NWS Employees

 

From:    Mark Tew

         Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 

 

Subject: Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge

         and Tide above Datum Products Will Transition To

         Operational 

 

Effective May 28, 2014, Experimental Probabilistic Tropical

Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above North American Vertical Datum

of 1988 (NAVD-88) will become operational and be made available

over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT. 

 

This is a replacement of the older P-Surge model that did not

incorporate tide and used older National Geodetic Vertical Datum

of 1929 (NGVD-29) bathymetry and topography data.

 

The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above

North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD-88) guidance consists

of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic

coastal areas:

 

  a) Probabilities, in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2

     through 25 feet above NAVD-88, at 1 foot intervals (e.g. 2,

     3, 4, ..., 25 feet).

  b) Heights, above NAVD-88, that are exceeded by specific

     probabilities ranging from 10 to 90 percent at 10 percent

     intervals.

 

Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided out

to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the overall

probability the event will occur at each grid cell from

the start of the run until 78 hours.

 

The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland

Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National

Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track,

size, and intensity errors based on historic errors. 

 

The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or

warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the

continental United States and on a case by case basis for

tropical storms.

 

The products will be available over the Satellite Broadcast

Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format.  The WMO Headers used

by the older P-Surge model (which did not consider tides and used

the NGVD-29 datum) will be reused by the newer P-Surge model.  A

complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/mc/psurge_abvdatum.pdf

 

Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge2.0/

 

GRIB2, ESRI shape files, and KMZ formats will be available for

download from the above website.

 

For questions regarding this notice...please contact

     

      Arthur Taylor

      National Weather Service

      Meteorological Development Laboratory

      Silver Spring, Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163

      Email: Arthur.Taylor@noaa.gov

 

      or

   

      John Kuhn

      National Weather Service

      Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch

      Silver Spring Maryland 20910

      Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121

      Email: John.F.Kuhn@noaa.gov

 

 

National Technical Information Notices are online at:

 

      http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$