NOUS41 KWBC 031149 CCA
Technical Implementation Notice 14-12 Corrected
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
750 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2014
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees
From: Mark Tew
Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch
Subject: Corrected: Experimental Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone
Storm Surge and Tide above Datum Products Will
Transition to Operational: Effective July 8, 2014
This notice was corrected to provide information as to where to
download data from the National Digital Guidance Database.
This notice was amended to provide an effective date of July
8, 2014 and for the guidance being available 1 hour after the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) nominal advisory time (i.e. 5
am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm).
Effective July 8, 2014, the experimental Probabilistic Hurricane
Inundation Surge Height (also known as P-Surge above ground
level) guidance, which incorporates tide will become operational
and be made available over the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN)
This is a replacement of the older P-Surge model that did not
incorporate tide and used older National Geodetic Vertical Datum
of 1929 (NGVD-29) bathymetry and topography data.
The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Tide above
North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD-88) guidance
of two suites of products for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
a) Probabilities, in percent, of storm surge exceeding 2
through 25 feet above NAVD-88, at 1 foot intervals (e.g.
2, 3, 4, ..., 25 feet).
b) Heights, above NAVD-88, that are exceeded by specific
probabilities ranging from 10 to 90 percent at 10 percent
Each of the probabilistic products mentioned will be provided
out to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the
overall probability the event will occur at each grid cell from
the start of the run until 78 hours.
The products are based on an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland
Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the NHC official
advisory and account for track, size, and intensity errors based
on historic errors.
The products will be generated when hurricane watches and/or
warnings are in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the
continental United States and on a case by case basis for
The products will be available 1 hour after the NHC nominal
advisory time (i.e. 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm EDT).
The products will be available over the Satellite Broadcast
Network (SBN) and NOAAPORT in GRIB2 format. The WMO Headers
used by the older P-Surge model (which did not consider tides
and used the NGVD-29 datum) will be reused by the newer P-Surge
model. A complete list of WMO Headers can be found online at:
Graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:
GRIB2, ESRI shape files, and KMZ formats will be available for
download from the above website.
Additionally, GRIB2 data will be available from the National
Digital Guidance Database. The above datum data will be
available here when posted:
Please note that these files will replace the current P-Surge
1.0 data. In addition there will be a name change from
ds.surgeexcd to ds.psurgeexcd.
For questions regarding this notice, please contact
National Weather Service
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
Telephone: 301-713-1613 x163
National Weather Service
Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch
Silver Spring Maryland 20910
Telephone: 301-713-1677 X121
National Technical Information Notices are online at: