NOUS41 KWBC 171445 AAA

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 14-46 Amended

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

945 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2014

 

To:        Subscribers:

           -Family of Services

           -NOAA Weather Wire Service

           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

           -NOAAPORT

           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:      Timothy McClung

           Chief, Science Plans Branch

           Office of Science and Technology

 

Subject:   Amended: Global Forecast Systems (GFS) Update:

           Effective January 7, 2015

 

Amended to change effective date to January 7, 2015

 

Effective on or about January 7, 2015, beginning with the

1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National

Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the

GFS Analysis and Forecast System which includes:

 

  - Changes to the model components

  - Increases in horizontal resolution

  - Addition of 0.25 degree gridded output

  - New product fields

  - Change of product naming convention

  - Changes in product timeliness

  - Downstream model impacts

 

1) Model changes to the GFS Global Spectral Model:

 

- Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the

forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian

T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from 192

hours to 240 hours

- Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of

the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian

T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384

hours  

- Change from Eulerian dynamics to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics,

which uses Hermite interpolation in both vertical and

horizontal directions.

- Use 5 minute daily Real-Time Global (RTG) Sea Surface

Temperature (SST) to replace 1.0 degree Reynolds 7 day SST

analysis

- Initialize ice at small inland lakes in the northern

hemisphere with 4 km Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice

Mapping System (IMS) ice analysis data from the National Ice

Center.  For large water bodies, use 5 minute NCEP/MMAB ice

analysis data to replace 30 minute ice data

- Use 1982-2012 5 minute SST climatology (replacing 1982-

2001 1 degree SST climatology).

- Use 1982-2012 30 minute sea ice concentration climatology

(replacing 1982-2001 1 degree climatology).

- Replace update of model snow depth by direct insertion of

AFWA depth data with a blend of the model first guess depth

and the AFWA depth.

- Use X-number to prepare spectral transform base functions. 

X-number is a numerical technique. It uses paired numbers to

represent real number to avoid computational underflow or

overflow that can occur in spectral truncation for wave

number larger than T1000.

- Use divergence damping in the stratosphere to reduce noise

- Add a tracer fixer for maintaining global column ozone

mass

- Use the Monte-Carlo Independent Column Approximation

(McICA) for Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) Radiation

- Reduce drag coefficient at high wind speeds

- Use Hybrid Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Planetary Boundary

Layer (EDMF PBL) scheme and Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE)

dissipative heating

- Re-tune ice and water cloud conversion rates, orographic

gravity-wave forcing and mountain block; and reduce

background diffusion of momentum

- Add stationary convective gravity wave drag

- Modify initialization of forecast state variables to

reduce a sharp decrease in cloud water in the first model

time step

- Correct a bug in the condensation calculation after the

digital filter is applied

- Replace 1.0 degree bucket soil moisture climatology with

CFS/Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) climatology

at T574 (~27 km)

- Replace 1.0 degree momentum roughness length climatology

by using a look-up table based on vegetation type

- Add a dependence of the ratio of the thermal and momentum

roughness on vegetation type

 

2) Model changes to the GDAS/GFS Hybrid 3D-VAR Ensemble

Kalman Filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation:

- Increase EnKF resolution from T254L64 to T574L64

- Assimilate hourly GOES and EUMETSAT atmospheric motion

vectors

- Update radiance assimilation: 

   - Assimilate SSM/IS UPP LAS and Metop-B IASI radiances

   - Use enhanced radiance bias correction scheme

   - Update to version 2.1.3 of the Community Radiative

     Transfer Model (CRTM).  CRTM v2.1.3 improves

     specification of microwave sea surface emissivities.

     This, in turn, improves the analysis of near surface

     temperature over water, especially in the southern

     oceans.

   - Use stochastic physics in EnKF ensemble forecasts

   - The dump window for GOES Satellite Wind (satwnd) data

     will change from 1 hour to 6 hours. Subtypes will be

     added for (NOAA/METOP AVHRR SATWIND) infrared cloud

     motion vector and (NESDIS/GOES 3.9 micron channel)

     derived cloud motion vector

 

 

3) Output product changes

 

All filenames given below can be located on the NCEP ftp

server, the NCEP http server, NOMADS or the NWS ftp server

respectively via the following URLs (YYYYMMDD is the year,

month, and day; CC is the cycle):

 

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gdas.YYYYMMDD

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gdas.YYYYMMDD/

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/nfs/nwstg/ftp/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.gfs_CY.CC/RD.YYYYMMDD/

 

Product Removals:

 

With this upgrade NCEP is removing output files that are

obsolete and not widely used. Please reference this html for

explanations and possible replacement products:

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/gfs_upgrade.shtml

 

- The following files will be removed

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.sstgrb

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.engicegrb

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.snogrb

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.engicegrb.grib2

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.sstgrb.grib2

      PT.grid_DF.gr2/fh.00xx_tl.press_gr.sstgrb

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.snogrb.grib2

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs_grb211.tCCz.pgrbFH.grib2

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.master.grbfFF.10m.uv.grib2

      PT.grid_DF.gr2/fh.xxxx_pa.sw10m_tl.press_gr.0p5deg

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.satang

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.trmm.tm00.bufr_d

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.sptrmm.tm00.bufr_d

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.sptrmm.tm00.bufr_d

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.forecmwf.YYYYMMDDCC.grib2

 

- Remove variables from GFS and GDAS pressure GRIB files

(*pgrb*)

    - Geopotential Height Anomaly (GPA)

    - 5-Wave Geopotential Height Anomaly (5WAVA)

 

Current Product Changes:

 

- The naming convention will change to include the grid and

3 digit forecast hours:

 

     On the NCEP server -

     GFS FH = "anl" or "f000-f384"

     GDAS FH = "anl" or "f000-f009"

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.fFFF -> gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.0p50.FH

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb2b.fFFF -> gfs.tCCz.pgrb2b.0p50.FH

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb.fFFF.grib2 -> gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.1p00.FH

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb2b.fFFF -> gfs.tCCz.pgrb2b.1p00.FH

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb.2p5deg.fFFF.grib2 ->

        gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.2p50.FH

      gfs.tCCz.pgrb.fFFF.grib2 -> gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.2p50.FH

      gfs.tCCz.goessimpgrb2fFFF.1p0deg ->

        gfs.tCCz.goessimpgrb2FH.1p0deg

      gfs.tCCz.goessimpgrb2fFFF.grd221 ->

        gfs.tCCz.goessimpgrb2FH.grd221

      master/gfs.tCCz.mastergrb2fFFF ->

        gfs.tCCz.pgrb2full.0p50.FH

      gdas1.tCCz.pgrbfFF.grib2 -> gdas1.tCCz.pgrb2.1p00.FH

 

     On the NWS server:

     GFS FH = 000-384

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.0p5deg ->

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.0p50deg

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.1p0deg ->

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.1p00deg

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.2p5deg ->

      fh.0FH_tl.press_gr.2p50deg

 

- The following files will have decreased forecast hour

availability to now only:

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.bfFF hourly output from 00-12

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.sfFF hourly output from 00-12

 

- There are numerous changes to the operational NOMADS

files. For all of the details please reference this page:

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/gfs_upgrade.shtml

 

- The packing for GRIB2 will be switched to secondorder

complex packing. The benefits for users will be much faster

IO time compared with the existing JPEG packing. The second

order packing provides good accuracy, although files will be

slightly larger than JPEG packing.

 

- Modify the list of stations for which BUFR data is

generated for the GFS.  The changes will also modify the

lists of stations in the GFS BUFR sounding collectives

disseminated on NOAAPORT. For the full list please reference

this page:

 

           

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/gfs_upgrade.shtml

 

- Use of the enhanced radiance bias correction scheme will

be changing the abias file. The format of the file is being

changed to incorporate information from the satang file.

      gdas.YYYYMMDD/gdas1.tCCz.abias

 

- The GFS cyclone tracker file code has changed from "NA" to

"AA" for storms in the Arabian Sea.

 PT.text_GP.tratcf/cyclone.trackatcf

          

- Change variables averaged or accumulated over time, such

as precipitation accumulation, to 6 hourly up to forecast

hour 240 for all products (some had been 12 hourly after

forecast hour 180 and some had been 12 hourly after forecast

hour 192).

 

- Modify fields to both GFS and GDAS:

  - Add Frozen Precipitation Fraction (CPOFP)

  - Add Ozone (O3MR) at 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, and 400 mb

  - Add Dew Point (DPT) at 2 meters

  - Add Apparent Temperature (APTMP)

  - Add instantaneous precipitation type (CICEP, CFRZR,

    CRAIN, CSNOW)

  - Add Membrane SLP in GDAS pressure grib files

  - Rename TMP at 0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.4 m, 0.4-1.0 m, and 1-2 m

    to the more accurate name of Soil Temperature (TSOIL)

  - Modify the precision of Relative Humidity (RH) grids

  - Modify GRIB encoding level of Total Cloud Cover (TCDC),

    removing "considered as a single layer"

  - Move Snow Depth (SNOD) from the *pgrb2b* files into the

    *pgrb2* files

 

New Products:

 

  - Produce GRIB2 output at the highest resolution on 0.25

    degree latitude-longitude grid 193 (1440x721)

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.0p25.FH

      gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/gfs.tCCz.pgrb2b.0p25.FH

 

Product Timeliness:

 

GFS product delivery timing on NOMADS, the ftp server and

NOAAPORT will be delayed for numerous products. Pressure

GRIB (*pgrb*) files will be as much as 20 minutes delayed.

Please reference this page for a full list of delays:

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/gfs_upgrade.shtml

 

 

NOAAPORT/SBN product changes:

 

- Additional forecast hours 186, 198, 210, 222, and 234 will

be added for the following GRIB2 grids only. There are no

new headers to add as these grids use existing headers:

 

201 - 381km Northern Hemisphere

212 - 40km CONUS

213 - 95km CONUS

160 - 47.5km Alaska

161 - 0.5 degree lat/lon for Puerto Rico

254 - 40km Pacific Region

 

- Variables averaged or accumulated over time, such as

precipitation, will now be valid over a 6 hour period

for forecast hours 180 through 240, rather than a 12

hour period. There are no new headers to add as these

new grids use existing headers.

 

4) Downstream model impacts

 

There are impacts to downstream GFS models and their product

output. Please reference this page for more information on

the following:

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/gfs_upgrade.shtml

 

- GFS-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) products

- Global Ensemble Forecast System variable change

- Numerous downstream model output timeliness changes. These

changes impact both NOAAPORT/SBN and the NCEP/NWS servers.

 

5) Parallel data available

 

Due to system constraints the parallel GFS will run on the

backup supercomputer. This will cause impact to output

availability on at least 3 days due to mandatory

maintenance. We will notify users when a cycle will not be

available through this user list:

 

https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.nomads-ftpprd

 

Starting in late October all parallel data sets will be

available on the following servers:

 

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/gdas.YYYYMMDD

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/gfs.YYYYMMDDCC/

http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/gdas.YYYYMMDD/

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov

 

NCEP has a full list of products that will be available for

download from both the NCEP and NWS servers as well as

NOMADS. You can find the file names and their inventory

through the following http page:

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/index.shtml.up

grade

 

For more information on this GFS upgrade, please see EMC

real-time and retrospective parallels and verification

pages:

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/vsdb/gfs2015/

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wd20rt/

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

NCEP urges all users to ensure their decoders can handle

changes in content order, changes in the scaling factor

component within the product definition section (PDS) of the

GRIB files, and volume changes. These elements may change

with future NCEP model implementations. NCEP will make every

attempt to alert users to these changes before

implementation.

 

For questions regarding these changes, please contact:

 

     Mark Iredell

     NCEP/Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch

     College Park, MD

     301-683-3739

     Mark.Iredell@noaa.gov

 

For questions regarding the data flow aspects of these data

sets, please contact:

 

     Carissa Klemmer

     NCEP/NCO Dataflow Team

     College Park, MD

     301-683-0567

     ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@noaa.gov

 

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

 

   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$