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Technical Implementation Notice 16-05 Amended

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

250 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2016

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Timothy McClung

          Chief Operating Officer

          NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

 

Subject:  Amended: Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated

          Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Model Update

          Effective date July 6, 2016

 

Amended to change the date from TBD to July 6, 2016

 

Effective Wednesday, July 6, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated

Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental

Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the HYSPLIT modeling system that

produces operational predictions of wildfire smoke and dust from

dust storms as well as volcanic ash. The output file names on the

NCEP ftp servers will change.

 

- Science Upgrades

 

1. No scientific enhancements to the smoke and dust products were

made.

 

2. For volcanic ash, the wet deposition technique was

modified.  The new wet deposition technique has been shown to

give improved deposition results when there is precipitation for

an analogous application  (particulate from the Fukushima Nuclear

Power Plant), and hence is expected to also apply to volcanic

ash.

New volcanic ash trajectory products will be generated:

 

6 hour forward trajectories from the GFS at 1525, 3050, 4550,

6100, 9100, 12200, and 15200 m AGL for each of these volcanoes in

Alaska:

 

Akutan, Aniakchak, Atka, Augustine, Churchill, Cleveland, Dutton,

Gareloi, Great Sitkin, Griggs, Hayes, Iliamna, Kaguyak, Kanaga,

Kasatochi, Katmai, Mageik, Makushin, Martin, Novarupta, Okmok,

Pavlof, Pavlof Sister, Redoubt, Seguam, Semisopochnoi,

Shishaldin, Spurr, Trident, Ugashik-Peulik, Veniaminof, Westdahl,

and Wrangell.

 

- Expected Benefits

 

1. Improved Volcanic Ash predictions for ash in and near areas of

precipitation. Ash well-above clouds and precipitation will not

be affected.

 

2. Consistent GRIB2 smoke/dust output file name structure

3. New Volcanic Ash trajectories products for user (NWS,

USGS) requirements

 

- File name changes

 

The files found under this operational server will change:

  http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hysplit/prod/

  ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hysplit/prod/

 

1. The smoke directory and file name formats will change:

 

CONUS GRIB2 directory and files:         

/smoke.yyyymmdd -> /smokecs.yyyymmdd

smoke.t06z.grib2_pbl.1hr_227 -> smokecs.t06z.pbl.1hr_227.grib2

smoke.t06z.grib2_sfc.1hr_227 -> smokecs.t06z.sfc.1hr_227.grib2

 

Alaska GRIB2 files:    

smokeak.t06z.grib2ak_pbl.1hr_198 ->

smokeak.t06z.pbl.1hr_198.grib2

smokeak.t06z.grib2ak_sfc.1hr_198 ->

smokeak.t06z.sfc.1hr_198.grib2

 

Hawaii GRIB2 files:          

smokehi.t06z.grib2hi_pbl.1hr_196 ->

smokehi.t06z.pbl.1hr_196.grib2

smokehi.t06z.grib2hi_sfc.1hr_196 ->

smokehi.t06Z.sfc.1hr_196.grib2

 

2. Additional files will be available:

 

The forecast duration HYSPLIT-formatted NAM CONUS Nest files will

be extended from 24-h to 48-h with the following files:

 

  hysplit.yyyymmdd/hysplit.tCCz.namsf24.CONUS

  hysplit.yyyymmdd/hysplit.tCCz.namsf30.CONUS

  hysplit.yyyymmdd/hysplit.tCCz.namsf36.CONUS

  hysplit.yyyymmdd/hysplit.tCCz.namsf42.CONUS, where CC=00,06,12,

or 18 and yyyymmdd is year, month, day.

 

For some meteorological situations, there may be improved HYSPLIT

dispersion guidance using NAM CONUS Nest predictions for longer

times (up to 48 hours) into the forecast.     

 

- Parallel data

 

Forecasts from the updated HYSPLIT model will be made available

through a parallel feed starting in late February, 2016. The

HYSPLIT smoke GRIB2 products for all three domains, CONUS

(continental US), Alaska and Hawaii and dust for CONUS from the

parallel feed are disseminated via the NCEP website:

  http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov

 

The products for smoke and dust will be displayed through:

  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/hysplit/web/html/

 

- Current operational HYSPLIT model will continue providing forecasts through:

 

ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hysplit/

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.conus/

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.alaska/

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.aq/AR.hawaii/

 

Graphical display for smoke and dust at:

  http://airquality.weather.gov/

 

Display for Volcanic ash at:

  http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/wafsash.shtml

  http://www.aviationweather.gov/iffdp/volc

 

More details about the HYSPLIT are available at:

  http://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php

 

For questions regarding these updated predictions, please contact:

 

Barbara Stunder

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

College Park, Maryland

301-683-1374

barbara.stunder@noaa.gov

 

Jeff McQueen

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

College Park, Maryland

301-683-3736

jeff.mcqueen@noaa.gov

 

For questions regarding the dataflow aspects of these data sets please contact:

 

Carissa Klemmer

NCEP Dataflow Team

College Park, Maryland 20740

301-683-0567

ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@noaa.gov

 

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

 

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