NOUS41 KWBC 181450 AAC

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 16-31 Amended

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

850 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Tim McClung

          Portfolio Manager

          Office of Science and Technology Integration

 

Subject:  Amended: Changes to GFS-based Model Output

          Statistics (MOS) Guidance effective on or about

          November 15, 2016

 

Amended to postpone the implementation date from Thursday,

November 3, 2016, to Tuesday, November 15, 2016.

 

On or about Tuesday, November 15, 2016, beginning with the

1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement

changes to the Global Forecast System (GFS)-based Model Output

Statistics (MOS) station-based and gridded guidance. These

changes will include:

 

1. Updated cool and warm season equations for certain elements

contained in the short-range GFS MOS text (MAV) and BUFR

messages for the 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC cycles. These

updates will include the following elements:

 

     Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

     2-meter Temperature

     2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

     Wind speed

     Wind direction

     6-/12-h probability of precipitation

     6-/12-h categorical precipitation amount

 

2. Updated cool and warm season equations for certain elements

contained in the medium-range GFS MOS text (MEX) and BUFR

messages for the 0000 and 1200 UTC cycles. These updates will

include the following elements:

 

     Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

     2-meter Temperature

     2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

     Maximum sustained surface wind (12-h)

     12-/24-h probability of precipitation

     12-/24-h categorical precipitation amount

 

3. Updated cool and warm season maximum and minimum temperature

guidance for all cycles of the short-range and extended-range

Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) maximum and minimum

temperature messages, known by their AWIPS IDs MCG and MCX,

respectively.

 

4. Updated cool and warm season equations for all cycles of the

marine MOS message, known by its AWIPS ID: MMG.  These updates

include the following elements:

 

     Air temperature

     Dewpoint temperature

     Wind speed

     Wind direction

 

For changes 1-4 above, current equations will be retained for a

small number of stations that did not have a sufficient sample

to develop new equations.  There are no stations being dropped

from the MAV, MEX, MMG, MCG or MCX messages at this time.

 

5. Adding 910 stations to the GFS-based short-range and

extended-range COOP maximum and minimum temperature messages. A

list of the stations being added can be found at:

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/changes/new_sites2016.php#coop

 

6. Updated cool and warm season mesonet guidance for the 0000

and 1200 UTC cycles.  These updates will include the following

elements:

 

     Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

     2-meter Temperature

     2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

     Wind Speed

     Wind Direction

 

Mesonet guidance is used in the GFS MOS River Forecast Center

(RFC) SHEF message (known by the AWIPS IDL: FTP) and also

influences the Gridded MOS analysis for temperature and wind.

No new sites are being added to the FTP message at this time.

New mesonet sites will be added to the Gridded MOS analysis in

a future upgrade.

 

7. Expansion of dissemination grid for 2.5-km CONUS Gridded MOS

products. The output grid for 2.5-km CONUS Gridded MOS will be

expanded northward by 220 grid lengths (~340 miles) to provide

coverage for the full Northwest RFC domain. The dimensions of

the output grid will change from 2145 X 1377 to 2145 X 1597.

Other grid characteristics (grid projection and grid resolution)

will be unchanged. This change will affect all 2.5 km CONUS

Gridded MOS products disseminated over the Satellite Broadcast

Network, NOAAPORT, to the NCEP FTPPRD server and to TGFTP/NDGD.

Users can find comparison graphics for parallel and operational

2.5-km CONUS Gridded MOS at the following link (This page is not

operationally supported and guidance may not be current):

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/gmos/conus25_all/view_gmos_comp.php

 

8. Replacing hi-res MOS (HRMOS) probability of precipitation

(PoP) and quantitative precipitation amount (QPF) with the

standard PoP/QPF in the CONUS Gridded MOS analysis. This change

will provide coverage for the Northwest RFC domain and will

incorporate the latest updates to the station-based PoP/QPF

equations.

 

9. Adding new terrain and land-water mask to the Gridded

MOS analysis for CONUS. This new mask and terrain set is the

result of a coordinated effort between MDL, EMC and the AWIPS

program to generate a single terrain and land/water dataset for

use in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis/UnRestricted Mesoscale

Analysis (RTMA/URMA), Gridded MOS, National Blend of Models, and

AWIPS/GFE.

 

10. Expanding gridded MOS guidance coverage over Alaska. The

forecast extent of Gridded MOS guidance over Alaska will be

expanded eastward to cover the Yukon River Basin and will be

expanded northward to include offshore Arctic marine zones. The

coverage expansion will affect the following Alaska Gridded MOS

elements:

 

     Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

     2-meter Temperature

     2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

     Wind speed, wind direction, wind gust

     6-/12-h probability of precipitation

     6-/12-h quantitative precipitation amount

     Relative humidity

     Total sky cover

 

This expansion only affects the extent to which Gridded MOS

forecasts are produced. Guidance will continue to be

disseminated on the NDFD Alaska grid. Forecast coverage for

elements not listed above is not being expanded at this time.

Users can find graphics for the expanded Alaska Gridded MOS at

the following link (This page is not operationally supported and

guidance may not be current.):

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/gmos/conus25_all/view_gmos_AK_para.php

 

11. GFS MOS text, GRIB and BUFR products that currently reside

on the NCEP FTPPRD server in the gfs.YYYYMMDDCC directory will

be moved to a new directory named gfsmos.YYYYMMDD as follows

(YYYYMMDD denotes run date, CC is the cycle):

 

Old FTPPRD directory:

http://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYYMMDDCC

 

New FTPPRD directory:

http://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfsmos.YYYYMMDD

 

12. Moving GFS MOS text products that currently reside on TGFTP

to the NCEP FTPPRD server as follows:

 

Old TGFTP paths for GFS MOS text products:

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mav

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mavaf

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mcg

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mcx

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mex

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/DF.anf/DC.mos/DS.mexaf

 

New path for GFS MOS text products (YYYYMMDD denotes run date):

http://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfsmos.YYYYMM

DD/

 

New filenames for each GFS MOS text product that will reside in

the gfsmos.YYYYMMDD directory on FTPPRD (CC denotes cycle):

 

mdl_gfsmav.tCCz     Short-range GFS MOS text product

mdl_gfsafmav.tCCz   Short-range GFS MOS Air Force text product

mdl_gfsmcg.tCCz     Short-range COOP text product

mdl_gfsmcx.tCCz     Medium-range COOP text product

mdl_gfsmex.tCCz     Medium-range GFS MOS text product

mdl_gfsafmex.tCCz   Medium-range GFS MOS Air Force text product

 

The expected benefits of changes 1-10 include:

 

1. MOS station guidance will be better-tuned to the new version

of the GFS model.

2. Northward expansion of 2.5 km CONUS Gridded MOS output grid

will provide coverage for all of the Northwest RFC domain.

3. Replacement of HRMOS PoP/QPF with standard PoP/QPF analysis

in Gridded MOS will provide coverage for the Northwest RFC

domain.

4. Updated terrain and land-water masks give a better

representation of topography and improve consistency with

observational analysis datasets.

5. Expansion of Alaska Gridded MOS will provide coverage over

the Yukon River Basin and Arctic offshore waters.

 

Tables 1-5 below list the communication identifiers for the

affected products.

 

Due to the migration to a new computing platform, there will be

a slight change in dissemination times for GFS MOS products.

Some products will be disseminated sooner, while most others

will be delayed by no more than 5 minutes.  The following

Gridded MOS products for Alaska will be delayed by up to

10 minutes from their current dissemination time: extended-range

precipitation potential index (PPI) and extended-range

predominant weather. WMO headers for the affected Alaska Gridded

MOS products are listed in Table 6 below.

 

Beginning approximately 1 month prior to the implementation

date, users may find parallel data for download on NOAA's

Parallel Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

(NOMADS) at the following link:

 

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/gfsmos

 

Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public

text products affected by the updated station guidance: for Air

Force MOS messages: xx = 01...29

 

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID   WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

         (SHORT RANGE)           (EXTENDED RANGE)

     ----------------------   ----------------------

     FOCN20 KWNO    N/A       FECN21 KWNO    N/A

     FOUS10 KWNO   MCGUSA     FEUS10 KWNO   MCXUSA

     FOPA20 KWNO   MAVPA0     FEPA20 KWNO   MEXPA0

     FOUS21 KWNO   MAVNE1     FEUS21 KWNO   MEXNE1

     FOUS22 KWNO   MAVSE1     FEUS22 KWNO   MEXSE1

     FOUS23 KWNO   MAVNC1     FEUS23 KWNO   MEXNC1

     FOUS24 KWNO   MAVSC1     FEUS24 KWNO   MEXSC1

     FOUS25 KWNO   MAVRM1     FEUS25 KWNO   MEXRM1

     FOUS26 KWNO   MAVWC0     FEUS26 KWNO   MEXWC0

     FOUS30 KWNO   MAVFxx     FEUS30 KWNO   MEXFxx

     FOAK37 KWNO   MAVAJK     FEUS37 KWNO   MEXAJK

     FOAK38 KWNO   MAVAFC     FEUS38 KWNO   MEXAFC

     FOAK39 KWNO   MAVAFG     FEUS39 KWNO   MEXAFG

     FQPA20 KWNO   MMGHI1

     FQUS21 KWNO   MMGNE1

     FQUS22 KWNO   MMGSE1

     FQUS23 KWNO   MMGGL1

     FQUS24 KWNO   MMGGF1

     FQUS25 KWNO   MMGNW1

     FQUS26 KWNO   MMGSW1

     FQAK37 KWNO   MMGAK1

 

Table 2: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR

products affected by the updated station guidance

 

     WMO HEADING   WMO HEADING    REGION

    (SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)

     -----------   -----------    ------------------  

     JSML30 KWNO   JSMT30 KWNO    PACIFIC REGION

     JSML31 KWNO   JSMT31 KWNO    NORTHEAST CONUS

     JSML32 KWNO   JSMT32 KWNO    SOUTHEAST CONUS

     JSML33 KWNO   JSMT33 KWNO    NORTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSML34 KWNO   JSMT34 KWNO    SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSML35 KWNO   JSMT35 KWNO    ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS

     JSML36 KWNO   JSMT36 KWNO    WEST COAST CONUS

     JSML37 KWNO   JSMT37 KWNO    ALASKA

 

Table 3: WMO superheaders for each 2.5 km CONUS Gridded MOS

element affected by the output grid expansion

 

Listed below are representations of the superheaders where ii=98

for short-range guidance (days 1-3) and ii=97 for medium-range

guidance (days 4-7). Elements indicated by (**) include ii=96

for extra extended-range (days 8-11).

 

     WMO SUPERHEADER     ELEMENT

     ---------------    -----------------------------

     MAUZii KWBQ         Cond. prob. freezing precip.

     MBUZii KWBQ         Cond. prob. frozen precip.

     MCUZii KWBQ         Cond. prob. liquid precip.

     YAUZii KWBQ         Total sky cover

     YBUZii KWBQ**       Wind direction

     YCUZii KWBQ**       Wind speed

     YDUZii KWBQ**       12-h prob. of precipitation

     YEUZii KWBQ**       2-meter temperature

     YFUZii KWBQ**       2-meter dew point temperature

     YGUZii KWBQ**       Daytime maximum temperature

     YHUZii KWBQ**       Nighttime minimum temperature

     YIUZii KWBQ         6-h quantitative precipitation

     YJUZii KWBQ         6-h prob. of a thunderstorm

     YLUZii KWBQ         Precipitation type best category

     YMUZii KWBQ         Precipitation potential index

     YNUZii KWBQ         Prob. of precip. occurrence

     YRUZii KWBQ**       Relative humidity

     YSUZii KWBQ         24-h snowfall amount

     YUUZii KWBQ         6-h prob. of precipitation

     YVUZii KWBQ         12-h quantitative precipitation

     YWUZii KWBQ         Wind Gusts

     YXUZii KWBQ         12-h prob. of a thunderstorm

     YYUZii KWBQ         3-h prob. of a thunderstorm

     YZUZii KWBQ         Predominant weather

 

Table 4: WMO superheaders for each Alaska Gridded MOS element

affected by the coverage expansion

 

Listed below are representations of the superheaders where ii=98

for short-range guidance (days 1-3) and ii=97 for medium-range

guidance (days 4-7). Elements indicated by (**) include ii=96

for extra extended-range (days 8-11).

 

     WMO SUPERHEADER     ELEMENT

     ---------------    -----------------------------

     LARZii KWBQ         Total sky cover

     LBRZii KWBQ**       Wind direction

     LCRZii KWBQ**       Wind speed

     LDRZii KWBQ**       12-h prob. of precipitation

     LERZii KWBQ**       2-meter temperature

     LFRZii KWBQ**       2-meter dew point temperature

     LGRZii KWBQ**       Daytime maximum temperature

     LHRZii KWBQ**       Nighttime minimum temperature

     LIRZii KWBQ         6-h quantitative precipitation

     LRRZii KWBQ**       Relative humidity

     LURZii KWBQ         6-h prob. of precipitation

     LVRZii KWBQ         12-h quantitative precipitation

     LWRZii KWBQ         Wind Gusts

 

Table 5: WMO superheaders for CONUS Gridded MOS elements

affected by the replacement of HRMOS PoP/QPF with the standard

PoP/QPF analysis

 

Listed below are representations of the superheaders where ii=98

for short-range guidance (days 1-3) and ii=97 for medium-range

guidance (days 4-7). Elements indicated by (**) include ii=96

for extra extended-range (days 8-11).

 

     WMO SUPERHEADER     ELEMENT

     ---------------     -------------------------------

     YDUZii KWBQ**       12-h prob. of precipitation

     YIUZii KWBQ         6-h quantitative precipitation

     YUUZii KWBQ         6-h prob. of precipitation

     YVUZii KWBQ         12-h quantitative precipitation

 

Table 6. WMO superheaders and corresponding tgftp filenames for

the Alaska Gridded MOS products that will delayed by up to 10

minutes from their current dissemination time.

 

   WMO SUPERHEADER          ELEMENT           TGFTP FILENAME

   ---------------  -----------------------  ----------------

   LMRZ97 KWBQ      Precip. Potential Index     ds.ppi.bin

   LZRZ97 KWBQ      Predominant weather         ds.wx.bin

 

For questions regarding the changes to GFS-based MOS guidance

please contact:

 

  Phil Shafer

  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland

  301-427-9488

  Phil.Shafer@noaa.gov

 or

  Matthew Peroutka

  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland

  301-427-9483

  Matthew.Peroutka@noaa.gov

 

For questions regarding the data flow, please contact:

 

  Carissa Klemmer

  NCEP Central Operations

  301-683-0567

  ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@noaa.gov

 

A Web page outlining the gridded MOS guidance can be found at:

 

  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/gmos.php

 

Links to MOS products and descriptions are online at:

 

  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop

 

 

NWS national Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

 

  http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

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