DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY AREAS

 

MISSION

To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

VISION

To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.

 

Recent Activities

September 13-15, 2017   The NMME/SubX Science meeting was held at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, MD on 13-15 September 2017. The objective of the meeting is to highlight the extensive ongoing research into seasonal and subseasonal climate prediction, using retrospective and/or realtime forecast data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). Succeeded from NMME, the SubX project expands the interagency effort to subseasonal prediction research to test individual and multi-model ensemble predictions at timescales of weeks 3-4 and beyond through interaction between participant research teams.

( More information:  News Report, Agenda, Abstracts )

June 1, 2017   Dr. Benjamin Cash of George Mason University presented his research on understanding unexpected rainfall deficiency in Southern California (SOCAL) during the 2015-2016 El Niņo winter. His study revealed NMME multi-model ensemble mean simulation of California rainfall had significant correlation with Niņo 3.4 SST, preferring to produce enhanced rainfall over the area for every El Niņo event. Meanwhile, the model noise component, which had a rainfall pattern similar to ENSO along the west coast but minimal association with SST, was largely in response to variations in strength of the west coast low. Composite and noise analyses of the 2015/16 event delivered consistent messages, that variations in simulated El Niņo event strength did not appear to be the driver of the intra-event variability, neither did the non-ENSO SST anomalies. Atmospheric noise appeared to play a key role. Suggestions for future directions were actively discussed.

June 8, 2016   A CTB seminar on U.S. flash drought of living period 1-2 pentads, which is distinct from agriculture drought of lasting a season or longer, was given by Dr. Kingtse C. Mo of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Two types of flash drought induced by heat wave and precipitation deficit, respectively, were classified; and their similarities as well as critical differences in feature representations and physical mechanisms explored. Also, the trend for each type was detected in preferred regions. For model forecast capability, Dr. Mo demonstrated NCEP CFSv2 seasonal (first 90-day) forecast from April to July can predict the preferred regions for flash droughts to occur, but not each event. Discussions were stimulated by questions, such as "Are flash droughts forced?", "Can weather model (i.e. GEFS) predict flash droughts?" etc.

(More information: AbstractPresentation pptx)