DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY AREAS

 

MISSION

To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

VISION

To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.

 

Recent Activities

April 5, 2018   Dr. Arun Kumar, Principal Scientist at NOAA Climate Prediction Center, gave a presentation on a research challenge on the predictability of 2015/16 winter precipitation anomaly over the west coast of the U. S., where the observation was opposite to the mean El Niņo signal. Key research questions were raised. 1) Were the differences due to unpredictable noise having an influence on individual seasonal mean? 2) Were the differences due to changes in atmospheric response to differences in ENSO SSTs, atmospheric response to other boundary forcing, or changes in ENSO teleconnections in a changing climate? Were those factors predictable? Using CFSv2 hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015), Dr. Kumar demonstrated the model forecasts with DJF 2015/16 SST forcings were consistent with historical expectations; the contribution from noise could lead to subtle changes in circulation and could appreciably change seasonal mean precipitation outcomes from the “expected response”. For better understanding, there are further questions that need to be answered, e.g. 1) What is the PDF of seasonal mean atmospheric states during different El Niņo conditions? 2) How does the “response and noise” vary from one event to another? 3) How predictable are the variations in SSTs themselves? “Though we know the approach, i.e. ensemble of GCM simulations with multiple models to pursue attribution studies, we don’t know how to build confidence in answering some of the questions and bringing them to a closure. With such a view, the use of probabilistic forecasts in decision making on an individual forecast basis is a hard dilemma to come to grips with”, said Dr. Kumar.

December 5, 2017    Prof. Yongkang Xue of the University of California, Los Angeles gave a CPC/CTB seminar on the relationship of spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. His study revealed such remote effect is the first order forcing of the drought and compatible to SST’s, thus can be used to improve prediction of high-impact events in the regions of North America and East Asia. The dynamical mechanisms were explored and the challenges in applications and model improvement discussed. Many ideas from audience in Q&A after the presentation showed common interests of strengthening collaboration between the university research and NCEP operation to accelerate high impact short-term climate prediction skill improvement for better public services.

(More information: AbstractPresentation pdf)

September 13-15, 2017   The NMME/SubX Science meeting was held at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, MD on 13-15 September 2017. The objective of the meeting is to highlight the extensive ongoing research into seasonal and subseasonal climate prediction, using retrospective and/or realtime forecast data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). Succeeded from NMME, the SubX project expands the interagency effort to subseasonal prediction research to test individual and multi-model ensemble predictions at timescales of weeks 3-4 and beyond through interaction between participant research teams.

( More information:  News Report, Agenda, Abstracts )