To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.


To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.


Recent Activities

December 7, 2017   Dr. Hai Lin of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) presented an overview of the GEM-NEMO global coupled model. It is anticipated that this model will join the NMME operational system in 2018. The atmospheric model, the Global Environmental Model (GEM), has a horizontal resolution of approximately 1.4° x 1.4°, and 79 vertical levels. During the discussion, a question was raised about the choice to invest in more vertical levels over increasing the horizontal resolution further. The ocean model, NEMO, is coupled with the sea ice model, CICE. Using the standard hindcast period, 1980-2010, and 10 ensemble members, model skill has been assessed, and compared to the CanCM3 and CanCM4 models, both individually and in all combinations of multi-model ensembles. Preliminary results find that the GEM-NEMO is the highest-scoring individual model, and the GEM-NEMO + CanCM4 combination is the most skillful MME. The addition of CanCM3 results in negligible additional skill, or slightly decreased skill. Both the MJO and NAO forecasting skill is improved in GEM-NEMO.    (EMILY BECKER)

December 5, 2017    Prof. Yongkang Xue of the University of California, Los Angeles gave a CPC/CTB seminar on the relationship of spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. His study revealed such remote effect is the first order forcing of the drought and compatible to SST’s, thus can be used to improve prediction of high-impact events in the regions of North America and East Asia. The dynamical mechanisms were explored and the challenges in applications and model improvement discussed. Many ideas from audience in Q&A after the presentation showed common interests of strengthening collaboration between the university research and NCEP operation to accelerate high impact short-term climate prediction skill improvement for better public services.

(More information: AbstractPresentation pdf)

September 13-15, 2017   The NMME/SubX Science meeting was held at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, MD on 13-15 September 2017. The objective of the meeting is to highlight the extensive ongoing research into seasonal and subseasonal climate prediction, using retrospective and/or realtime forecast data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). Succeeded from NMME, the SubX project expands the interagency effort to subseasonal prediction research to test individual and multi-model ensemble predictions at timescales of weeks 3-4 and beyond through interaction between participant research teams.

( More information:  News Report, Agenda, Abstracts )