NMME/SubX Science Meeting

Date: September 13-15, 2017

Location: National Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction, College Park MD 20740

Goal:   Moving forward on the subseasonal

and seasonal climate prediction through interaction between research teams.

Themes: 1. Model representation of

physical processes. 2. Subseasonal /seasonal prediction skill of regional or global climate, including extremes. 3. Multi-model forecast consolidation, including weighting, bias correction, or calibration.

*  This workshop will highlight the extensive

research into seasonal and subseasonal climate prediction using data from NMME/SubX.

(Abstract submision, More information)

Recent Activities

June 1, 2017   Dr. Benjamin Cash of George Mason University presented his research on understanding unexpected rainfall deficiency in Southern California (SOCAL) during the 2015-2016 El Niņo winter. His study revealed NMME multi-model ensemble mean simulation of California rainfall had significant correlation with Niņo 3.4 SST, preferring to produce enhanced rainfall over the area for every El Niņo event. Meanwhile, the model noise component, which had a rainfall pattern similar to ENSO along the west coast but minimal association with SST, was largely in response to variations in strength of the west coast low. Composite and noise analyses of the 2015/16 event delivered consistent messages, that variations in simulated El Niņo event strength did not appear to be the driver of the intra-event variability, neither did the non-ENSO SST anomalies. Atmospheric noise appeared to play a key role. Suggestions for future directions were actively discussed.

June 8, 2016   A CTB seminar on U.S. flash drought of living period 1-2 pentads, which is distinct from agriculture drought of lasting a season or longer, was given by Dr. Kingtse C. Mo of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Two types of flash drought induced by heat wave and precipitation deficit, respectively, were classified; and their similarities as well as critical differences in feature representations and physical mechanisms explored. Also, the trend for each type was detected in preferred regions. For model forecast capability, Dr. Mo demonstrated NCEP CFSv2 seasonal (first 90-day) forecast from April to July can predict the preferred regions for flash droughts to occur, but not each event. Discussions were stimulated by questions, such as "Are flash droughts forced?", "Can weather model (i.e. GEFS) predict flash droughts?" etc.

(More information: AbstractPresentation pptx)

November 9-10, 2015   The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) Meeting was held in NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Conference Center with over 80 participants including NOAA management, and scientists from the external community and NCEP (EMC and CPC). The meeting has reviewed the CTB recent accomplishments, ongoing R2O activities and R2O/O2R process. The meeting participants discussed the needs for more effective R2O transition for improved climate models and operational products and future CTB directions based on NWS operational requirements and science advances/opportunities. The outcomes of the CTB meeting will help inform the updated CTB 5-10 year Science Plan and Implementation Strategy.

( More information:  Participants, Agenda, Presentations )