8, 2016 Kirstin Harnos of the Climate Prediction Center presented "NMME Sea Ice Reforecasts: An Update", work that she has done with Michelle L'Heureux and Qin Zhang, both of CPC. Kirstin's team has been assessing the general question "how well does the NMME handle sea ice?" As a first check, they confirmed that the five participating models (NCEP-CFSv2, NCAR-CCSM4, CMC-CanCM3 & 4, and GFDL-FLORb01) produce more ice in March than in September. With this basic quality assessed, they examined the representation of both the total sea ice extent (SIE) and the year-to-year variability in the SIE, during the common hindcast period of 1982-2010. Since the trend in SIE is very strong over the hindcast period, but may be non-linear and is difficult to identify, examining these two quantities allows for an understanding of how the models and the NMME represent the trend (total SIE) and how they represent interannual processes that may be independent of the trend.
The individual models generally either overestimate or underestimate the total SIE, with the exception of the CanCM4, which has a fairly realistic simulation; the NMME multi-model ensemble mean is an improvement over any of the individual models. The NMME has the greatest improvement over the individual models in total bias and in the anomaly correlation of the year-to-year variability. The models, including the NMME, do not capture the recent trend well. However, the observed year-to-year variability is within the envelope of model simulations.
(By Emily Becker)
A CTB seminar on U.S. flash drought of living period 1-2 pentads, which is distinct from agriculture drought of lasting a season or longer, was given by Dr. Kingtse C. Mo of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Two types of flash drought induced by heat wave and precipitation deficit, respectively, were classified; and their similarities as well as critical differences in feature representations and physical mechanisms explored. Also, the trend for each type was detected in preferred regions. For model forecast capability, Dr. Mo demonstrated NCEP CFSv2 seasonal (first 90-day) forecast from April to July can predict the preferred regions for flash droughts to occur, but not each event. Discussions were stimulated
by questions, such as "Are flash droughts forced?", "Can weather model (i.e. GEFS) predict flash droughts?"
(More information: Abstract,
November 9-10, 2015 The NOAA Climate Test Bed
(CTB) Meeting was held in NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Conference Center with
over 80 participants
including NOAA management, and scientists from the external community and NCEP (EMC and CPC). The meeting has reviewed the CTB recent accomplishments,
ongoing R2O activities and R2O/O2R process. The meeting participants discussed the needs for more effective R2O transition for improved climate models
and operational products and future CTB directions based on NWS operational requirements and science advances/opportunities. The outcomes of the CTB
meeting will help inform the updated CTB 5-10 year Science Plan and Implementation Strategy.
( More information:
Participants, Agenda, Presentations