DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY AREAS

 

NMME/SubX Science Meeting

Date: September 13-15, 2017

Location: National Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction, College Park MD 20740

Goal:   Moving forward on the subseasonal

and seasonal climate prediction through interaction between research teams.

Themes: 1. Model representation of

physical processes. 2. Subseasonal /seasonal prediction skill of regional or global climate, including extremes. 3. Multi-model forecast consolidation, including weighting, bias correction, or calibration.

*  This workshop will highlight the extensive

research into seasonal and subseasonal climate prediction using data from NMME/SubX.

(More information)

Recent Activities

April 6, 2017   The teleconference presentation by Sarah Strazzo of CPC/INNOVIM explored the idea that, while models may not consistently represent observed teleconnections, e.g. between ENSO and North American temperature and precipitation, they may coherently represent large scale climate variability such as ENSO, AO/NAO, NPO etc. Statistical bridging by Bayesian joint probability model was tested to possibly further improve forecast skill beyond what skill was achieved through calibration. Preliminary results for temperature forecasts showed that the bridging was more skillful than calibration in DJF, particularly over the northern United States, though calibration yielded higher skill relative to bridging overall. At longer leads, skill differences between calibration and bridging varied by model, and the difference generally decreased with lead time. Further testing was planned, such as the performance relative to ensemble regression, merging of bridged and calibrated forecasts, exploring the use of additional bridging predictors etc.

June 8, 2016   A CTB seminar on U.S. flash drought of living period 1-2 pentads, which is distinct from agriculture drought of lasting a season or longer, was given by Dr. Kingtse C. Mo of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Two types of flash drought induced by heat wave and precipitation deficit, respectively, were classified; and their similarities as well as critical differences in feature representations and physical mechanisms explored. Also, the trend for each type was detected in preferred regions. For model forecast capability, Dr. Mo demonstrated NCEP CFSv2 seasonal (first 90-day) forecast from April to July can predict the preferred regions for flash droughts to occur, but not each event. Discussions were stimulated by questions, such as "Are flash droughts forced?", "Can weather model (i.e. GEFS) predict flash droughts?" etc.

(More information: AbstractPresentation pptx)

November 9-10, 2015   The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) Meeting was held in NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Conference Center with over 80 participants including NOAA management, and scientists from the external community and NCEP (EMC and CPC). The meeting has reviewed the CTB recent accomplishments, ongoing R2O activities and R2O/O2R process. The meeting participants discussed the needs for more effective R2O transition for improved climate models and operational products and future CTB directions based on NWS operational requirements and science advances/opportunities. The outcomes of the CTB meeting will help inform the updated CTB 5-10 year Science Plan and Implementation Strategy.

( More information:  Participants, Agenda, Presentations )