Speaker:  Prof. Yongkang Xue

                 Department of Geography

                 University of California, Los Angeles, CA

Time:       1:00 - 2:00 pm EST, 5 December 2017

Location:   NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, Conference Room 3159

                 5830  University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740

Remote Access:   GOTO meeting: https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/621184917

                 Meeting ID: 621-184-917

                 The Dial-in number: 1-877-680-3341

                 The Participant passcode: 858747

ABSTRACT

Extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of Earth’s climate and have large impacts on society. While studies have shown connections between sea surface temperature (SST) variability and land precipitation, they also suggest that SSTs are unable to fully predict these extreme events. The remote effects of large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies in geographical areas upstream and closer to the areas of drought and flood have largely been ignored. Here, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. Evaluation of observational data using Maximum Covariance Analysis identifies significant correlations between springtime LST cold (warm) anomalies in both the northwest U.S. and the Tibetan Plateau and downstream drought (flood) events in late spring/summer. To support these observational findings, climate models are used to demonstrate a causal relationship for two important cases: between spring warm LST/SUBT anomalies in northwest U.S. and the extraordinary 2015 flood in Southern Great Plains and adjacent regions; and between spring cold LST/SUBT anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau and the severe 2003 drought south of the Yangtze River. The LST/SUBT downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. The effects of SST in these cases are also tested and compared with the LST/SUBT effects. These results suggest that consideration of LST/SUBT anomalies have the potential to add value to intraseasonal prediction of dry and wet conditions, in particular extreme drought and flood events.

( Flyer )

Flash Droughts over the United States

NOAA Climate Test Bed

Seminar Series

1. Kingtse C. Mo, Flash Droughts over the United States
(Abstract)

2. Q. J. Wang and Andrew Schepen, The CBaM Seasonal Climate Forecast Post-processing Method: Development and Applications for Water Resources Management in Australia           (Abstract)

3. Rong-Cai Ren, Linkage between the Summer Indian Ocean SST and the Decay of ENSO Events           (Abstract)

4. Thomas Smith, Super-Ensemble Statistical Short-Range Precipitation Forecasting Over the US and Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors           (Abstract)

5. Cristiana Stan, The Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections           (Abstract)

6. Jürgen Kurths, Climate Networks and Extreme Events        (Abstract)

7. Ken Mitchell, Drought Monitoring with the NCEP North American Land Data Assimilation (NLDAS): Implications and Challenges of Extending the Length of the Climatology        (Abstract)

More ......

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