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37th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 22-25 October 2012, Fort Collins, CO Climate Prediction S&T Digest |
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Overview NOAA's 37th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in Fort Collins, Colorado, on 22-25 October 2012. It was hosted by the Colorado State University (CSU) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA); and co-sponsored by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The American Meteorological Society was a cooperating sponsor. The workshop addressed the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, with emphasis on five major themes: 1) Improving climate prediction tools and techniques through dynamical and statistical models and methods, forecaster practices and protocols, data and model improvements, and scientific concepts. 2) Prospects for improved understanding, prediction, and simulation of intra-seasonal, seasonal, and inter-annual climate variability, including the extratropical annular modes, stratosphere/troposphere coupling, tropical-extratropical interactions, land-surface forcing, etc. 3) Climate variability and prediction in relation to the hydrologic cycle and in particular Western water resources. 4) Prediction and attribution of recent high impact weather and climate events. 5) Improving climate services through the application of new technologies, including GIS, statistical tools, and software development practices. This Digest is a collection of extended summaries of the presentations contributed by participants. The workshop is continuing to grow and expect to provide a stimulus for further improvements in climate monitoring, diagnostics, prediction, applications and services. |
(To be online by 1/31/2013) |
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Participant Contributions Preface by Wayne Higgins US climate review of 2012: The hot and dry by Melissa Ou by Philip Klotzbach Weakened interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean since 2000 by Zeng-Zhen Hu, and Co-authors The equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El Niņo and La Niņa by Amy H. Butler, and Co-authors Prediction skill of monthly SST in the North Atlantic Ocean in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 by Zeng-Zhen Hu, and Co-authors A comparison of skill between two versions of the NCAP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s operational short-lead seasonal outlooks by Peitao Peng, Anthony G. Barnston, and Arun Kumar Monitoring and maintenance of a cold-season drought by Er Lu NWS efforts to improve weather to climate based-services by Jiayu Zhou, Wayne Higgins, and Mike Halpert Weather and climate analyses using the new NVAP-MEaSUREs global water vapor dataset by Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Janice L. Bytheway, and John M. Forsythe Sea surface temperature - precipitation relationship in different reanalyses by Li Zhang, Arun Kumar, and Wanqiu Wang Evaluation of the National Multi-Model Ensemble System for seasonal and monthly prediction by Emily Becker, and Co-authors Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and predictability by Emily J. Becker, Huug van den Dool, and Malaquias Peņa A comparison of skill of CFSv1 and CFSv2 hindcasts of Nino 3.4 SST by Anthony G. Barnston, and Michael K. Tippett Assessing the daily and radiative performance of the CFSR, ERA-interim and MERRA by Wesley Ebisuzaki, and Co-authors The multivariate PNA index: A new index for identifying MJO impacts over North America by Carl J. Schreck III, and David Margolin Homogeneous and heterogeneous predictability and forecast skill in MME by Huug van den Dool, Emily Becker, and Malaquias Peņa Combining sub-seasonal and seasonal precipitation forecasts over Indonesia by Andrew W. Robertson, and Co-authors Tree-ring extension of precipitation variability at 12-km grid points in eastern Nevada: Implications for drought analysis by Franco Biondi The current state of Arctic sea ice by Gregory J. Deemer, and Co-authors Improvement of grand multi-model ensemble prediction skills for the coupled models of APCC/ENSEMBLES using a climate filter by Doo Young Lee, and Co-authors Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) to allow easy analysis and comparison of reanalyses and other datasets by Catherine A. Smith, Gilbert P. Compo, and Don K. Hooper Changes in activity of the intense tropical cyclones for the western North Pacific during the last decades, derived from a regional climate model simulation by Monika Barcikowska, Frauke Feser, and Hans von Storch Comparison of dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal climate forecasts for the cold season over the United States by Jin-Ho Yoon, L. Ruby Leung, and James Correia Jr. Wet weeks in the warm season: Processes supporting widespread, multi-day precipitation episodes by Russ S. Schumacher Is global warming changing the ENSO precursor in the Western North Pacific? by Shih-Yu Wang, Michelle L’Heureux, and Jin-Ho Yoon The influence of teleconnections on synoptic-scale circulation patterns affecting western Canadian water resources by B. W. Newton, T. D. Prowse, and B. R. Bonsal Objective blends of multiple ensemble-mean NLDAS drought indices by Youlong Xia and Co-authors Characteristics of oceanic response to ENSO estimated from simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System by Hui Wang, Arun Kumar, and Wanqiu Wang Factors driving the persistence of ENSO-led winter rainfall deficits into late-spring and early-summer over Texas by Dinali Nelun Fernando, and Co-authors The signature of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation in tropospheric clouds by Ying Li and David W. J. Thompson A teleconnection between geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa by Daniel Barandiaran and Shih-Yu Wang Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) to better serve NWS staff and users by Marina Timofeyeva and Co-authors
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