Predictability and Attribution

• Intraseasonal teleconnection between North American and western North Pacific monsoons with 20-day time scale      

  by Xianan Jiang and Ngar-Cheung Lau  

• Progression of ENSO Forecasts for 2006-2007

• Predictability of coupled GCM forecasts: NCEP CFS, CliPAS, and DEMETER

• Climate factors helping to shape winter 2005-2006

• Lessons learned from successful forecast for July 2004   [Print Version]

• A-priori skill estimates of soil moisture forecasts using the constructed analog method

    Multi-model Ensemble

• Consolidation of seasonal forecasts

  An evaluation of the probabilistic information in multi-model ensembles

  by David Unger  (10/25/2005)
  [View the presentation,  Listen to the talk]

  Objective weighting of multi-method seasonal predictions

  by Huug van den Dool  (10/25/2005)
  [View the presentation,  Listen to the talk]

• NOAA/CTB/CST discussions on model overconfidence in prediction