Accomplishments

Official Product Improvements:

• An objective consolidation tool that contributed to improved skill of official US seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts (see following caveats);

•  An objective verification system for CPC official 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly and seasonal US temperature and precipitation forecasts.

Tools for Evaluation of Future Model Improvements:

• A standard suite of diagnostics for evaluation of potential CFS/GFS upgrades; Atlas

• Twice Daily CFS hindcasts (1981-present) on public server;

• A 25-year GLDAS run for use in hindcast / simulation experiments.

Improvements to ocean-atmosphere-land components of CFS:

• A long term erroneous temperature error in the operational GODAS was eliminated;

• A new land surface model (Noah) was coupled to CFS and tested.

  Caveats

1.  Skill Goal –vs – Actual Skill  (Figure on the right)

There is a need to accelerate improvements in NOAAs Official Seasonal Forecasts.

• Recently there has been a string of very good forecasts, which have raised skill levels well above the current target level.

• These skillful forecasts can be attributed, at least in part, to CTB/CPC efforts during FY06 to implement a skill weighted consolidation scheme in operational seasonal prediction.