NOAA Climate Tesbed Memorandum

FY06 in Retrospect

                                                                                                       [Print Version]

Accomplishments

Official Product Improvements:

  • An objective consolidation tool that contributed to improved skill of official US seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts (see following caveats);

  •  An objective verification system for CPC official 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly and seasonal US temperature and precipitation forecasts.

Tools for Evaluation of Future Model Improvements:

  • A standard suite of diagnostics for evaluation of potential CFS/GFS upgrades; Atlas

  • Twice Daily CFS hindcasts (1981-present) on public server;

  • A 25-year GLDAS run for use in hindcast / simulation experiments.

Improvements to ocean-atmosphere-land components of CFS:

  • A long term erroneous temperature error in the operational GODAS was eliminated;

  • A new land surface model (Noah) was coupled to CFS and tested.

  Caveats

1.  Skill Goal –vs – Actual Skill  (Figure on the right)

There is a need to accelerate improvements in NOAAs Official Seasonal Forecasts.

  • Recently there has been a string of very good forecasts, which have raised skill levels well above the current target level.

  • These skillful forecasts can be attributed, at least in part, to CTB/CPC efforts during FY06 to implement a skill weighted consolidation scheme in operational seasonal prediction.

2.  Actual Skill -vs- Consolidation (Figure on the left)

  • When the scheme is applied to 1995-present on a combination of in-house methods (CCA, OCN, SMLR and CFS), we find that we would have scored better on US temperature by some 10-20%.

  • Gains in the skill of precipitation forecasts are also noteworthy.

  • Ongoing efforts to consolidate tools may improve these forecasts further and help to reset the base level of skill above current skill (GPRA) goals.

  • Bottom line: CTB is attempting to increase benefits from the investments we make in the seasonal forecast arena.

(Contact Wayne Higgins)