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39th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

20-23 October 2014, St. Louis, MO

Climate Prediction S&T Digest

Overview

NOAA's 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in St. Louis, Missouri during 20-23 October 2014. The workshop addressed the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, and focused on five major themes:

1. Prediction, monitoring, and variability of the hydroclimate with an emphasis on the Midwest during the growing season.

2. The prediction, attribution, and assessment of extreme events.

3. Sub-seasonal to interannual predictability.

4. Latest developments in models, tools, and techniques in relation to improving climate prediction.

5. Developing applications to improve climate services.

The workshop was hosted by St. Louis University (SLU) and co-hosted by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is a cooperating sponsor.

The workshop featured daytime oral presentations, invited speakers and a poster session event. This Digest is a collection of extended summaries of the presentations contributed by participants. The workshop is continuing to grow and expected to provide a stimulus for further improvements in climate monitoring, diagnostics, prediction, applications and services.

Participant Contributions

PREFACE

    by David DeWitt

1. HYDROCLIMATE MONITORING, PREDICTION AND VARIABILITY

( Read Online,   Download PDF )

Mechanism behind the spring to summer drought memory and its impact on predictability of the summer drought over US Great Plains

    by Rong Fu, Bing Pu, Nelun Fernando

An enhanced seasonal transition that could have intensified droughts in the central U.S.

    by S.-Y. Simon Wang, Joseph Santanello, Hailan Wang, Daniel Barandiaran, Rachel Pinker, Siegfried Schubert, Robert R. Gillies, Robert Oglesby, Kyle Hilburn, Ayse Kilic, and Paul Houser

Why do some La Niņa years in the southern Great Plains have droughts and other not?

    by Bing Pu, Rong Fu, Robert E. Dickinson, D. Nelun Fernando

2. EXTREME EVENTS: PREDICTION, ATTRIBUTION AND ASSESSMENT

CPC's new week-2 probabilistic hazards forecast and extremes tool

    by Melissa Ou, Ken Pelman, Mike Charles, and Jon Gottschalck

Assessment of the predictability of September sea ice concentration using sea ice thickness

    by Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

Fire and ice - California drought and "polar vortex" in a changing climate

    by S.-Y. Simon Wang, Larry Hipps, Robert Gillies, and Jin-Ho Yoon

What caused the North America climate anomalies in 2013/14 winter?

    by Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar, Mingyue Chen, and Bhaskar Jha

3. NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE

Probabilistic forecasting with NMME

    by Emily J. Becker, Huug van den Dool, and Qin Zhang

4. SUBSEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL PREDICTABILITY

Using the Bering Sea and typhoon rules to generate long-range forecasts

    by Joseph S. Renken, Joshua Herman, Daniel Parker, Travis Bradshaw, and Anthony R. Lupo

Influence of ENSO SSTs on the spread of the probability density function for precipitation and surface temperature

    by Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar

Modulation of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905-2011

    by Philip Klotzbach, and Eric Oliver

Prediction skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2: Impact of ENSO and beyond

    by Zeng-Zhen Hu, Arun Kumar, Bohua Huang, Jieshun Zhu, and Yuanhong Guan

5. INTRASEASONAL PREDICTABILITY

Intra-seasonal mid- and high-latitude circulation fluctuations forced by and coherence with tropical heating: Predictability and prediction

    by David M. Straus, Erik Swenson and Cara-Lyn Lappen

Predictability of eastern Pacific intrasesonal variability

    by J. M. Neena, Xianan Jiang, Duane Waliser, June-Yi Lee, and Bin Wang

6. MONSOON PREDICTABILITY

Variations and seasonal prediction of wet and dry season precipitation over the maritime continent: Roles of ENSO and monsoon circulatione

    by Tuantuan Zhang, Song Yang, and Xingwen Jiang

7. CLIMATE SERVICE DEVELOPMENT AND CHALLENGES

Evaluation of an indicator for the early warning of strong summer drought over the south central United States

    by D. Nelun Fernando, Rong Fu, Ruben S. Solis, Robert E. Mace, Ying Sun, Binyan Yang, and Bing Pu

Achieving the NOAA Arctic action plan- The missing permafrost element

    by Rachael Jonassen, Elchin Jafarov, Kevin Schaefer, Fiona Horsfall, and Marina Timofeyeva

Science planning perspective on improving regional climate prediction for service

    by Jiayu Zhou

APPENDIX

Workshop photos