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Climate Bulletin

40th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

26-29 October 2015, Denver, CO

Climate Prediction S&T Digest

OVERVIEW

NOAA's 40th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in Denver, Colorado on 26-29 October 2015. The workshop was hosted by the Physical Sciences Division (PSD) of NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) and co-sponsored by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Services Division (CSD) of the National Weather Service (NWS).

The workshop addressed the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, and focused on five major themes:

1. The evolution of climate diagnostics and prediction over the last 40 years.

2. Extremes and risk management: knowledge and products to connect the diagnostics and prediction of extremes with preparedness and adaptation strategies.

3. The prediction, attribution, and analysis of drought and pluvial in the framework of climate variability and change.

4. Diagnostics and prediction of high impact extreme climate events.

5. Prediction and attribution of Arctic climate variability, and the linkages of Arctic variability to lower latitudes.

The workshop featured daytime oral presentations, invited speakers, and panel discussions with a poster session event held in the evening on 27 October.

This Digest is a collection of extended summaries of the presentations contributed by participants. The workshop is continuing to grow and expected to provide a stimulus for further improvements in climate monitoring, diagnostics, prediction, applications and services.

Participant Contributions

PREFACE

OPENING ADDRESS

( Read Online,   Download PDF )

Charting a path forward at the Climate Prediction Center

    by David DeWitt

1. 2015 CLIMATE OVERVIEW

An overview of the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 2014

    by Michelle L'Heureux

The faucet: Informal attribution of the May 2015 record-setting Texas rains

    by John W. Nielsen-Gammon

2. DROUGHT / PLUVIAL

California: Indications for continued groundwater depletion after drought and causes of drought variety

    by S.-Y. Simon Wang, Yen-Heng Lin, Robert R. Gillies, Kirsti Hakala, and Lawrence E. Hipps

Simulated U.S. drought response to interannual and decadal Pacific SST variability

    by Robert Burgman and Youkyoung Jang

Reconciling seasonal droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the southeastern US

    by Vasu Misra and Satish Bastola

Flash droughts over the United States

    by Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

The 2011 great flood in Thailand: Climate diagnostics and implications from climate change

    by Parichart Promchote, S.-Y. Simon Wang, and Paul G. Johnson

3. DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION OF HIGH IMPACT EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS

New measure of forecast uncertainty for the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

    by Qin Zhang, Yuejian Zhu, Hong Guan , Jon Gottschalck, Jin Haung, Huug van den Dool, Emily Becker, and Li-Chuan Chen

Forecasting temperature extremes with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

    by Emily J. Becker, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, and Li-Chuan Chen

Detection and attribution of extreme temperature using an analogue-based dynamical adjustment technique                                    

    by Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Laurent Terray

What drove tropical and North Pacific and North America climate anomalies in 2014/15 winter?

    by Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar and Zeng-Zhen Hu

Teleconnection patterns impacting on the summer consecutive extreme rainfall in Central-Eastern China

    by Junmei Lü, Yun Li, Panmao Zhai, Junming Chen, and Tongtiegang Zhao

A revised real-time multivariate MJO index

    by Ping Liu, Qin Zhang, Chidong Zhang, Yuejian Zhu, Marat Khairoutdinov, Hye-Mi Kim, Courtney Schumacher, and Minghua Zhang

Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range Forecasts II: Case Studies

    by Joseph S. Renken, Joshua Herman, Daniel Parker, Travis Bradshaw, and Anthony R. Lupo

The 2014 Primera drought over Central America

    by Miliaritiana Robjhon, and Wassila Thiaw

Impact of large-scale circulation on precipitation events in the Mediterranean region

    by Monika Barcikowska and Sarah Kapnick

A downscaling approach of relating the large-scale patterns to the extreme rainfall frequency in Taiwan Mei-yu season for climate change projection and S2S prediction

    by Mong-Ming Lu, Yin-Ming Cho, and Meng-Shih Chen

Intraseasonal tropical storm prediction in the NCEP CFSv2 45-day forecasts

    by Lindsey N. Long, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, and Stephen Baxter

4. PREDICTION OF ENSO AND ITS REMOTE IMPACTS

ENSO precipitation and temperature forecasts in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Composite analysis and validation

    by Li-Chuan Chen, Huug van den Dool, Emily Becker, and Qin Zhang

The relationship between thermocline depth and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific: Seasonality and decadal variations

    by Jieshun Zhu, Arun Kumar, and Bohua Huang

Global ENSO ocean wave trends during the last 30 years

    by Schaler R. Perry and Mark Willis

ENSO and seasonal rainfall variability over the Hawaiian and US-affiliated Pacific islands

    by Luke He and Pacific Climate Team

5. THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION OVER THE PAST 40 YEARS

Evolution of ENSO prediction over the past 40 years

    by Anthony G. Barnston

Climate extremes past and present: A 40-year perspective

    by Henry F. Diaz

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) international outreach: From the African Desk to the International Desks, twenty years of developing the capacity of national meteorological services

    by Wassila M. Thiaw, Vadlamani B. Kumar, Endalkachew Bekele, Nicholas S. Novella, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Thomas D. Liberto, and Steven Fuhrman

Approaches for estimating seasonal predictability: Where are we with current estimates?

    by Arun Kumar and Martin Hoerling

A real-time multiple ocean reanalyses intercomparison project for quantifying the impacts of tropical Pacific observing systems on constraining ocean reanalyses and enhancing our capability in monitoring and predicting ENSO

    by Y. Xue, C. Wen, A. Kumar, M. Balmaseda, Y. Fujii, G. Vecchi, G. Vernieres, O. Alves, M. Martin, F. Hernandez, T. Lee, D. Legler, D. DeWitt

6. PREDICTION / ATTRIBUTION OF ARCTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND LINKAGES TO LOWER LATITUDES

Prediction of Arctic sea ice melt date as an alternative parameter for local sea ice forecasting

    by Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

7. TOPICS RELATED TO PREDICTABILITY AND STRATEGIES FOR PREDICTION

A NMME-based hybrid prediction system for Atlantic hurricane season activity

    by Daniel S. Harnos, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Hui Wang

Potential and actual predictability of snow water equivalent in historical forecasts of the Canadian Fourth Generation Coupled Climate Model (CanCM4)

    by Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and William J. Merryfield

An analysis of predictability of seasonal atmospheric variability using NMME models

    by Bhaskar Jha, and Arun Kumar

Comparison of warm season North American precipitation variability observations to CFSv2

    by Kirstin J. Harnos and Scott J. Weaver

Feedback attributions of the climate difference in the muted and the accelerated warming periods

    by Yana Li, Xiaoming Hu, Song Yang, Ming Cai, and Yi Deng

Relationship between the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and Summer Rainfall over Central Asia and North China: Roles of the Indian Monsoon and the South Asian High

    by Wei Wei, Renhe Zhang, Min Wen, and Song Yang

Synthesis and integration: Challenges facing the next generation operational CFS

    by Jiayu Zhou, Jin Huang, Annarita Mariotti, Dan Barrie, James L. Kinter III, and Arun Kumar

8. CLIMATE SERVICES AND DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

Climate information needs for hazard mitigation

    by Nancy Selover, Hana Putnam, Nalini Chhetri, and Kenneth Galluppi

Crop yield outlooks under extreme weather: lessons learnt from Canada

    by Aston Chipanshi, Yinsuo Zhang, Dongzhi Qi, and Nathaniel Newlands

A Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability Tool for Famine Early Warning Systems over Africa

    by Nicholas Novella and Wassila Thiaw

APPENDIX

Workshop photos for Digest

2015 CDPW Album

(Updated on 3/3/2016)