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38th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

21-24 October 2013, College Park, MD

Climate Prediction S&T Digest

OVERVIEW

NOAA's 38th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop was held in College Park, Maryland, on 21-24 October 2013. It was hosted by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS) of University of Maryland; and co-sponsored by NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, and the Climate Services Division (CSD) of National Weather Service (NWS). The American Meteorological Society (AMS) was a cooperating sponsor.

To accelerate improvements in NOAA operational products and datasets, and delivery of climate information, this workshop brought NCEP and the broader climate community together to address the following themes:

1)  Exploring potential sources of predictability on intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) time scales;

2)  Realizing prediction skill by improving forecast tools and techniques through dynamical models and statistical methods, forecaster practices and protocols, data quality and assimilation, and scientific best practices;

3)  Enhancing monitoring and timely attribution and assessment of recent high impact weather, water, and climate events;

4)  Improving the forecast evaluation process, including verification techniques, performance metrics, evaluating existing forecast tools, the process of phasing out old tools and implementing new forecast tools, and engaging users in the evaluation process;

5)  Developing applications that enhance NOAA climate services by improving understanding of user needs and delivering the best available climate information for the NOAA societal challenges in water, coasts, extremes, and marine ecosystems.

This Digest is a collection of extended summaries of the presentations contributed by participants.

( Read Online,   Download PDF )

CONTENTS

PREFACE

    by Mike Halpert

1. EXPLORING POTENTIAL SOURCES OF PREDICTABILITY ON ISI TIME SCALES

Observed linkages between the Northern Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation, cloud incidence, and cloud radiative forcing

    by Ying Li, David W. J. Thompson, Yi Huang, and Minghong Zhang

Towards filling the gap in NOAA’s seamless suite of forecast products; Prospects of “useful” predictions for weeks 3 & 4?

    by Muthuvel Chelliah

Mechanisms for the onset and evolution of North American Monsoon

    by Ehsan Erfani, and David L. Mitchell

Coupling of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones with the Myanmar monsoon onset

    by Boniface Opoku Fosu, and Shih-Yu Wang

2. REALIZING PREDICTION SKILL

Developing a more reliable and usable ENSO prediction plume

    by Anthony G. Barnston, and Co-authors

Sea ice in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

    by Xingren Wu, and Robert Grumbine

Sensitivity study of the skill of the CPC week-2 reforecast tool to reforecast sampling

    by Melissa Ou, and Co-authors

Prediction of short rains over equatorial East Africa using multi-model ensemble

    by T. k. Bahaga, and Co-authors

Meteorological drought prediction using a multi-model ensemble approach

    by Li-Chuan Chen, and Co-authors

Recent science advancement in seamless weather to climate modeling and prediction

    by Jiayu Zhou, Wayne Higgins, and Mike Halpert

National earth system prediction capability project

    by Daniel P. Eleuterio, and Jessie C. Carman

3. ENHANCING MONITORING AND TIMELY ATTRIBUTION AND ASSESSMENT

Could the 2012 drought have been anticipated? – A NASA NEWS initiative

    by S.-Y. Simon Wang, and Co-authors

The surprisingly quiet 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season

    by Philip Klotzbach

Why were some La Niñas as followed by another La Niña?

    by Zeng-Zhen Hu, and Co-authors

Observed trends in the Great Plains low-level jet and associated precipitation changes in relation to recent droughts

    by Daniel Barandiaran, Shih-Yu Wang, and Kyle Hilburn

Climate monitoring from space – Architecture for sustained observations

    by John J. Bates

4. IMPROVING FORECAST EVALUATION PROCESS

Validation of CFSv2 model behavior – Land-atmosphere interactions and the hydrologic cycle

    by Paul A. Dirmeyer, and Ahmed Tawfik

Climate mean, variability and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean atmospheric circulation in the NCEP CFSv2

    by Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar, and Bhaskar Jha

NMME Year 2: verification of real-time monthly-mean forecasts

    by Emily J. Becker, and Co-authors

5. DEVELOPING APPLICATIONS

A different kind of guidance for climate adaptation planning

    by Rachael G. Jonassen, and Marina Timofeyeva

The prediction of extreme agrometeorological indices using the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s medium range forecasts

    by Aston Chipanshi, and Hai Lin

Towards an interannual to decadal local sea level forecasting service

    by Hans-Peter Plag

Analysis of oceanic precipitation before the satellite era

    by Thomas M. Smith, Phillip A. Arkin, and Li Ren

Hydrologic and climatologic conditions that shape groundwater resources in Utah and the Great Basin

    by Kirsti A. Hakala, Shih-Yu Wang, and Jin-Ho Yoon

NWS climate information and tools for decision support services

    by Marina Timofeyeva, and Co-authors

Jaziku - Statistical inference software for the teleconnections analysis

    by Corredor Llano X., and Sánchez Rodríguez I. C.

Developing a framework to incorporate climate information and climate change projections in water planning for Texas

    by Dinali N. Fernando, and Rong Fu

APPENDIX

Workshop photos