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NOAA CTB - COLA Joint Seminar Series

"CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool"


                                                   Foreword                                  [Full Text]

" In August 2004 the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented a new seasonal prediction system, called the Climate Forecast System (CFS) that marked a turning point in several ways. ...... As a result, a large group of scientists, both at NCEP and at COLA, began analyzing and experimenting with the CFS as a prediction system and research tool.  In the course of discussions in early 2007 between COLA and NCEP, it became clear that an exchange of research results and findings would be highly beneficial to both groups and perfectly consistent with the goals of the CTB, so a joint CTB-COLA seminar series was established in Fall 2007.  During 2007-2008 period, monthly seminars were held at both NCEP (by COLA scientists) and COLA (by NCEP scientists).  The seminar series generated a great deal of interest at both centers and resulted in a rich and valuable exchange of information and insights about seasonal prediction in general and the CFS in particular. ......"

    Wayne Higgins, Director                                                  James  L. Kinter III, Director

    Climate Prediction Center                                               Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere

    National Centers for Environmental Prediction           Studies  

Extended Summaries

COLA

NOAA NCEP

14 May 2008      Circulation regimes in the CFS interactive ensemble: Bridging weather and climate predictability promises and challenges

   by David M. Straus                 [Print Version]

11 Apr 2008      Dominant daily modes of the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

   by Deepthi Achuthavarier     [Print Version]

12 Mar 2008      Sensitivity of CFS mean state and ENSO variability to changes in SST bias

   by Julia V. Manganello         [Print Version]

9 Jan 2008      Surface latent heat flux and relationships with SST in CFS

   by Renguang Wu                  [Print Version]

10 Dec 2007      Mean, variability and the most predictable patterns in CFS over the tropical Atlantic ocean

   by Zeng-Zhen Hu                 [Print Version]

14 Nov 2007      Sensitivity of the MJO to SST: A simulation and predictability study of the MJO using the CFS and GFS

   by Kathy Pegion                   [Print Version]

10 Oct 2007      US National Multi-model ENSO prediction with CFS and CCSM3

   by Ben Kirtman                     [Print Version]

10 Sep 2007      Estimation of the limit of  predictability in the stratosphere versus troposphere using CFS

   by Cristiana Stan                  [Print Version]

28 May 2008  Verification of daily CFS forecasts 1981-2005

   by Huug van den Dool            [Print Version]

   (PowerPoint Presentation)

23 Apr 2008  MJO monitoring and assessment at the Climate Prediction Center and initial impressions of the CFS as an MJO forecast tool

   by Jon Gottschalck                  [Print Version]

26 Mar 2008  Summer season forecast experiments with the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) using different land models and different initial land states

   by Ken Mitchell                         [Print Version]

27 Feb 2008  Global ocean monitoring: A synthesis of atmospheric and oceanic analysis

   by Yan Xue                               [Print Version]

31 Jan 2008  Assessment of the CFS on the predictability of the North American monsoon

   by Lindsey N. Long                 [Print Version]

17 Oct 2007  Evaluation of the stratosphere in the operational CFS and CFS-Next

   by Craig S. Long                      [Print Version]

19 Sep 2007  On the importance of horizontal resolution and initial conditions to forecasting tropical intraseasonal oscillations: the maritime continent prediction barrier

   by Augustin Vintzileos            [Print Version]

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==============================================================

||    Synthesis of Issues from CTB-COLA Joint Seminar Summaries    ||

||                           Jiayu Zhou, S&TI Climate Mission                             ||

||                 Office of Science and Technology, NWS/NOAA                        ||

||                                            [ PowerPoint Presentation ]                                               ||

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