North American Soil Moisture Related Forecast

2005 2006 2007 2008            


 PRODUCT UPDATE NOTE

The Reanalysis CDAS temperature input has been replaced by the observation based GHCN/CAMS analysis since product update in February 2007.  For information on this new CPC T2m data see ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd51yf/GHCN_CAMS/.  This has changed slightly the runoff, soil moisture and evaporation over 1948 - Feb 2007.

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep      

Fig. 1 

Display of the two first EOFs for soil moisture in the month and period indicated on the top. The soil moisture is at the end of the month. On the left spatial patterns, on the right the time series.

 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep      

Fig. 2 

Upper left: The soil moisture anomaly (cm) at the end of the month/year indicated on the top. Green (brown) are positive (negative) anomalies.

Lower left: The CA reconstruction of the soil moisture anomaly. The construction is done in a space truncated to 30 EOFs, thus leaving details unmatched. 

Upper right:  The weights assigned to the soil moisture anomaly fields in historical years so as to obtain the lower left. +ve (-ve) weights are in red (blue).  Red (blue) years would be analogues (anti-analogues) to a certain degree.

Lower right: The initial match of the CA construction in all years. Here we correlate the CA (30eofs) against raw data. Correlation larger (smaller) than 0.9 is in red (blue). To first order, the correlation reflects ups and downs in the variance explained by 30 modes. A high correlation is desirable, and puts faith in the forecast.

 

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan      

Fig. 3 

Forecasts of soil moisture anomaly (cm) for the month/year indicated in the top. 

Upper left: Persistence of Initial State, i.e. state four months earlier. 

Lower left: The CA forecast. 

Upper right: Skill of persistence forecast in previous years. Persistence of anomaly from the initial month (initial month is shown in top Fig. 1 and 2), four months before verification time. Better than 0.6 in red, worse than 0.6 in blue. 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

 

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan      

Fig. 3a 

Upper left: Same as the lower left panel of Fig. 3. 

Lower left: The predicted change in soil moisture from the initial state (upper left panel of Fig.3). 

Upper right: Same as the upper right panel of Fig. 3.

 

Mar

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov      

Fig. 4 

Forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomaly (cm) for the month/year indicated in the top. 

Upper left: Temperature degree C. 

Lower left: Precipitation mm/month. 

Upper right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available). 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

 

MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ      

Fig. 5 

Forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomaly (cm) for the season/year indicated in the top. 

Upper left: Temperature degree C. 

Lower left: Precipitation mm/month. 

Upper right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available). 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

Contact  Huug van den Dool