North American Soil Moisture Related Forecast

2005 2006 2007 2008            

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Fig. 1

Display of the two first EOFs for soil moisture in the month and period indicated on the top. The soil moisture is at the end of the month. On the left spatial patterns, on the right the time series.

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Fig. 2 

Upper left: The soil moisture anomaly (cm) at the end of the month/year indicated on the top. Green (brown) are positive (negative) anomalies.

Lower left: The CA reconstruction of the soil moisture anomaly. The construction is done in a space truncated to 30 EOFs, thus leaving details unmatched. 

Upper right:  The weights assigned to the soil moisture anomaly fields in historical years. +ve (-ve) weights are in red (blue).  Red (blue) years would be analogues (anti-analogues) to a certain degree.

Lower right: The initial match of the CA construction in all years 1948-2004. Here we correlate the CA (30eofs) against raw data. Correlation larger (smaller) than 0.9 is in red (blue). To first order, the correlation reflects ups and downs in the variance explained by 30 modes. A high correlation is desirable, and puts faith in the forecast.

 

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 07

Feb

Mar

Apr

Fig. 3 

Forecasts of soil moisture anomaly (cm) for the end of the month/year. 

Upper left: Persistence of Initial State, i.e. state four months earlier. 

Lower left: The CA forecast. 

Upper right: Skill of persistence forecast in previous years. Persistence of anomaly from initial month (initial month is shown in top Fig. 1 and 2), four months before verification time. Better than 0.6 in red, worse than 0.6 in blue. 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

 

 

 

 

 

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 07

Feb

Mar

Apr

Fig. 3a 

Upper left: Same as the lower left panel of Fig. 3. 

Lower left: The predicted change in soil moisture from the initial state (upper left panel of Fig.3). 

Upper right: Same as the upper right panel of Fig. 3.

 

Mar

Apr

May

June

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 07

Feb

Fig. 4 

Forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomaly (cm) for the month/year. 

Upper left: Temperature degree C. 

Lower left: Precipitation mm/month. 

Upper right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available). 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

 

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

DJF

JFM

FMA

Fig. 5 

Forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomaly (cm) for the season/year. 

Upper left: Temperature degree C. 

Lower left: Precipitation mm/month. 

Upper right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available). 

Lower right: Skill of CA forecast in previous years (Not yet available).

 

Contact  Huug van den Dool