What key physical processes were missed or misrepresented?
CPC Ocean Monitoring Group
made a quick examination on some key ocean and atmosphere conditions and
provided some clues as follows.
i) "Most of models forecast ENSO-neutral conditions in summer/fall 2011 from spring 2011, probably due to unrealistic response to positive heat content anomaly in the tropical Pacific and failure in capturing the persistent easterly wind anomalies in the central Pacific."
"Although the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral conditions during
May-Jul 2011, persistence of easterly wind anomalies in the western-central
Pacific and the enhanced (suppressed) convection persisted in NW Pacific
(south central Pacific) probably were related to the persistence of
horse-shoe pattern of negative SSTA. To be able to forecast the onset of La
Niña from spring, models need to be able to maintain the horse-shoe SSTA and
eastern wind anomalies."