MRF MOS MAX/MIN Temperature and Dewpoint Development

Single station equations were developed for 335 stations (300 in the CONUS, 30 in Alaska, 4 in Hawaii and 1 in Puerto Rico) for the cool season (October through March) and the warm season (April through September).

Cool Season Developmental Sample

1992-96 MRF Reanalysis Forecast Data (every 5^th day)
1997-98 and 1998-99 MRF Forecast Data, holding out the last 15 days of each month in the 1998-99 cool season.

Cool Season Independent Sample
The last 15 days in each month of the 1998-99 cool season.

Warm Season Developmental Sample
1992-96 MRF Reanalysis Forecast Data (every 5^th day)
1997 and 1998 MRF Forecast Data.

Warm Season Independent Sample
April through July 1999.

Cool Season Verification
Daytime max and nighttime min were more accurate that the old MRF MOS out to 108 hours and comparable in skill thereafter (out to 192 hours).
Temperature and dew point guidance improved significantly over direct model output and climatology at all projections.

Cool Season Predictors
The most frequently chosen predictors were the 1000 millibar temperature, 2 meter temperature, low level thicknesses, 1000 millibar dewpoint and the mean relitave humidity. It is noted that the 2 meter temperature is the favored predictor for the daytime max and the 18Z and 00Z temperature temperature and dew point. However, the temperature at a particular layer (usually 1000 mb) is favored for the nighttime min and the 06Z and 12Z temperature and dew point. At the extended projections, the climatological terms became more frequently used, accounting for the decreasing skill of the model as time increases.

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Developer: Kevin L. Carroll
Last Updated: January 28, 2000