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Test Results of MOS Products Currently Under Development


CAFTI Presentations

Our latest test results can be found in the presentations given to the Committee for Analysis and Forecasting Techniques Implementation (CAFTI). The most recent CAFTI meeting agenda can be found at the NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services.

Previous Results

As part of the process of implementing new statistical guidance packages, the NWS conducts extensive tests of experimental MOS systems. Most frequently, tests are conducted on an independent sample of data after equations are developed from the dependent or developmental sample. In general, test forecasts are made for all model cycles, all projections, all seasonal stratifications, and for a reasonable sample of the stations for which the guidance is to be developed. Comparisons of the test forecasts are made with other MOS guidance packages, direct numerical model output, or a forecast based on climatic means or relative frequencies. A variety of verification measures are used to evaluate the test forecasts.

Short-Range (12-72 hours)


The AVN-Based Guidance

Development of a new MOS package based on the Aviation (AVN) run of the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Global Spectral Model is underway. Drafts of Technical Procedures Bulletins 482 and 481, which describe the AVN MOS 0000/1200 UTC and 0600/1800 UTC alphanumeric messages, respectively, are available from OCWWS. The links to test results for specific elements are listed below. Dates indicate when test results became available for each element.

The ETA-Based Guidance

Development of a new MOS package based on the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Eta Model is underway. A draft of Technical Procedures Bulletin 486, which describes the Eta MOS alphanumeric message, is available. The links to test results for specific elements are listed below. Dates indicate when test results became available for each element.
  • Wind (11/02/01)
  • Max/Min Temperature
  • Temperature/Dewpoint
  • Total Cloud
  • Ceiling Height
  • Thunderstorms
  • Severe Thunderstorms
  • Precipitation Type
  • Precipitation Probability (11/02/01)
  • Precipitation Amount

Medium-Range (24-192 hours)


The MRF-Based Guidance

The MRF MOS is being revised and updated. The new product will contain forecasts for an increased number of stations, as well as additional and modified weather elements. Technical Procedures Bulletin 460, which describes the MRF MOS alphanumeric message, is available from OCWWS. The developmental sample includes our current archive of Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) runs of NCEP's Global Spectral Model dating back to April 1997, as well as reanalysis data from 1992 - 1996. The links to test results for specific elements are listed below. Dates indicate when test results became available for each element.

Model Diagnostics

During the development process we often need to look carefully at the statistical characteristics of certain model fields. The links to current investigations are listed below.

Evaluation of NGM Parallel Test


Last Updated November 27, 2002

National Weather Service
Office Of Science and Technology
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Statistical Modeling Branch
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page Author: MOS Web Team
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Page last Modified: Thursday, 29 July 2010 13:29 UTC