PCU 2: Continuously Assess and Forecast the Aviation Weather Environment

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Aviation Professional Development Series

PCU 2: Continuously Assess and Forecast the Aviation Weather Environment

Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved:

Observations and forecasts of weather parameters and significant weather phenomena relevant to the mission of the meteorologist's office are continuously monitored to determine the need for issuance, cancellation, amendments, or updates of decision support information according to documented thresholds, regulations and operational impacts.

Description of Need:

Pilots, dispatchers, air traffic controllers and managers, airport officials, and other users in the National Airspace System require consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to determine the level of safety for operating decisions and to enhance the efficiency of operations.
- Ability 1. Forecast wind including temporal and spatial variability. This includes surface and vertical profiles for wind direction and speed, wind-shear and gusts.
  - Skill 1.1. Continuously monitor in situ and remote sensing data for changes in wind conditions and validate current forecasts.
    - Gap: No formal training identified.
  - Skill 1.2. Analyze and assess in situ and remote sensing data, local effects, and short-term numerical model guidance for surface wind (including cross wind on runways) and vertical profiles for direction, speed and low level wind shear.
- Ability 2. Forecast cloud types, heights, amounts, and cloud tops.
  - Skill 2.1. Continuously monitor in situ data and remote sensing data for changing cloud conditions which impact aviation operations.
  - Skill 2.2. Analyze and interpret in situ and satellite data for cloud conditions which can impact aircraft operations.
    - Satellite Interpretation for various Coastal Effects (VISIT, 1.5 hours) [Training]
    - Satellite Interpretation of Orographic Clouds / Effects (VISIT, 1.5 hours) [Training]
- Ability 3. Forecast low-level clouds and fog and other types of obscurations (dust, smoke, haze, dust/sand-storms, blowing snow, etc.) which can restrict visibilities.
  - Skill 3.1. Assess local climatology for the formation of fog and low-level clouds.
  - Skill 3.2. Continuously monitor in situ data and remote sensing data for the formation and/or dissipation of low-level clouds, fog which impact aviation operations.
  - Skill 3.3. Analyze and interpret in situ data and satellite data, and short-term numerical model guidance for physical processes which affect the formation or dissipation of low-level clouds and fog.
  - Skill 3.4. Continuously monitor in situ data and remote sensing data for precipitation types which impact aviation operations.
  - Skill 3.5. Analyze and interpret in situ data, radar, satellite data and short-term numerical model guidance for physical processes which affect the formation or dissipation of precipitation and types.
  - Skill 3.6. Continuously monitor in situ data and remote sensing data for blowing dust, haze and smoke which impact aviation operations.
    - Atmospheric Dust (COMET, 45 mins) [Training]
    - Visible and Infrared Dust Detection Techniques (COMET, 25 mins) [Training]
  - Skill 3.7. Analyze and interpret in situ data, satellite data and short-term numerical model guidance for physical processes which affect the formation or dissipation of blowing dust or haze.
    - Forecasting Dust Storms ver2 (COMET, 2 hrs) [Training]
- Ability 4. Forecast convection and associated phenomena such as , thunderstorms, lightning, heavy precipitation (restrictions to visibility), down burst/microburst, gust fronts, and tornadic activity.
  - Skill 4.1. Describe and assess local thunderstorm climatology and associated phenomena for your forecast area.
    - Conduct local climatological studies.
    - Severe Convection Forecasting and Warnings PDS: PCU 2: Assessing Climatology
    - Local WFO Thunderstorm Climatology Studies on Aviation Focal Point Training page (OCWWS)
  - Skill 4.2. Analyze and assess in situ data and remote sensing data for synoptic-scale features which can contribute to the development of convection.
    - Interpreting Satellite Signatures (VISIT, 45 mins) [Training]
    - Satellite Feature Identification: Atmospheric Rivers (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
    - Satellite Feature Identification: Ring of Fire (COMET, 30 mins) [Training]
    - Utility of GOES Satellite Imagery in Forecasting / Nowcasting Severe Weather (VISIT, 1.15 mins) [Training]
    - Severe Convection Forecasting and Warnings PDS: PCU 3: Assessing the Synoptic Environment: Identifying Patterns and Synoptic-Scale Features.
    - Images in Weather Forecasting, 1995. Bader, Forbes, Grant, Lilley and Waters. [Not online, hardcopy only]
  - Skill 4.3. Analyze and assess in situ data and remote sensing data to determine if the mesoscale environment is conducive for the development of convection.
    - Skew-T Mastery (COMET, 2-3 hrs) [Training]
    - Introduction to Satellite Interpretation for Severe Weather (VISIT, 1.5 hrs) [Training]
    - Principles of Convection I: Buoyancy and CAPE (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
    - Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
    - Principles of Convection III: Shear and Convective Storms (COMET, 1 hr) [Training}
    - DLAC 2 Convection WES Simulations (WDTB) [Training]
    - Writing TAFs for Convective Weather (COMET, 2 hours) {Training}
    - Severe Convection Forecasting and Warnings PDS: PCU 4: Analyzing and Assessing the Mesoscale Environment
    - CoSPA Hourly Thunderstorm Observations and Forecasts for National Airspace System [Resource]
    - LAMP Thunderstorm Forecast Images [Resource]
    - Gap: Most of the training available focuses on forecasting thunderstorms for NWS public weather products and a lack of application to aviation forecasting. Several gaps were identified: 1) Lack of of mesoscale to storm scale forecasting techniques as they pertain to writing terminal aviation forecasts. 2) There is minimal training available on the impacts of thunderstorms on aviation customers and partners. Included in this would be the impacts with respect to the aerial coverage or extent of the convection.
- Ability 5. Forecast Icing.
  - Skill 5.1. Describe the different types of aircraft icing and the physical processes which cause icing to develop.
    - Forecast Aviation Icing: Icing Type and Severity (COMET, 3.0 hrs) [Training]
    - CWSU-ATC Training Library (WDTB)
  - Skill 5.2. Monitor and assess observations and remote sensing data for icing conditions or the potential for icing to develop.
    - Icing Assessment Using Observations and Pilot Reports (COMET, 1.0 hrs) [Training]
    - SHyMet: Aviation Hazards (VISIT, 3 hrs) [Training]
    - Images in Weather Forecasting, 1995. Bader, Forbes, Grant, Lilley and Waters. [Not online, hardcopy only]
  - Skill 5.3. Use observations and model data to evaluate and forecast potential icing threat areas.
- Ability 6. Forecast transport and dispersion of volcanic ash which impacts the NAS.
  - Skill 6.1. Identify volcanic eruption types and their ash dispersion patterns.
  - Skill 6.2. Describe the impacts of volcanic ash to aviation.
    - Volcanic Ash: Impacts to Aviation, Climate, Maritime Operations and Society (COMET, 45 mins) [Training]
    - Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part 2 (VISIT, 1.5 hrs) [Training]
  - Skill 6.3. Monitor and assess observations and remote sensing data to evaluate the presence of volcanic ash.
    - Volcanic Ash: Observation Tools and Dispersion Models (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
  - Skill 6.4. Use observations and models to forecast transport and dispersion of volcanic ash.
    - HYSPLIT Applications for Emergency Decision Support (COMET, 3 hrs) [Training]
    - Volcanic Ash: Observation Tools and Dispersion Models (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
- Ability 7. Analyze and forecast the development or dissipation of tropical systems which can impact aircraft operations
  - Skill 7.1. Identify circulation patterns and processes which can lead to the formation of tropical systems
  - Skill 7.2. Forecast the occurrence of specific tropical weather phenomena which can impact aircraft operations
  - Skill 7.3. Analyze and interpret in situ and satellite data for tropical weather phenomena which can impact aircraft operations
- Ability 8. Forecast jet streams, wind shear and turbulence
  - Skill 8.1. Analyze and interpret in situ and model data for the presence of jet streams and wind-maxima aloft
    - Deformation Zone Analysis (COMET, 1.5 hrs) [Training]
    - Deformation Zone Distribution (COMET, 30 mins) [Training]
    - Recognition and Impact of Vorticity Maxima and Minima in Satellite Imagery (COMET, 1 hr) [Training]
    - Vorticity Maxima and Comma Patterns (COMET, 30 mins) [Training]
    - Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns (COMET, 30 mins) [Training]
    - Dynamic Feature Identification: Deformation Zone Diagnosis (COMET, 35 mins) [Training]
    - SHyMet: GOES High Density Winds (VISIT, 75 mins) [Training]
    - Images in Weather Forecasting, 1995. Bader, Forbes, Grant, Lilley and Waters. [Not online, hardcopy only]
  - Skill 8.2. Analyze and interpret in situ and model data for the presence of high level wind shear and turbulence
    - SHyMet: Aviation Hazards (VISIT, 3 hrs) [Training]
    - Synoptic Patterns of High Turbulence [VISIT...under development]
    - CWSU-ATC Training Library (WDTB)
    - Air Force Weather: Meteorological Techniques. Ch 2, Sec II Turbulence. (Air Force Weather) (7.6 mb pdf)
    - Air Force Weather Qualification Training Package Forecasting Weather Elements (9.6 mb pdf)
  - Skill 8.3. Analyze and interpret in situ and model data for the presence of low-level turbulence.
    - Gap:No formal training identified.
  - Skill 8.4. Analyze and interpret in situ and model data for the presence of low-level wind shear.
    - DLAC 2: Writing TAFs for Winds and LLWS (COMET, 2-3 hrs) [Training]
    - DLOC Topic 5, Lesson 17: Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile (VWP) (WDTB, 0.5 hours) [Training]
    - Air Force Weather Qualification Training Package Forecasting Weather Elements (9.6 mb pdf)
  - Skill 8.5. Analyze and interpret in situ and model data for the presence of mountain waves.
    - Mountain Waves and Downslope Winds (COMET, 2 hrs) [Training]
    - S-290 Unit 7: Wind Systems (COMET, 1 hr) [Resource]
- Ability 9. Identify and communicate space weather events and their impacts to aviation stakeholders
  - Skill 9.1. Describes the different types and basic characteristics of space weather events.
  - Skill 9.2. Identify and interpret Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) products.
  - Skill 9.3. Effectively communicate space weather information and impacts to aviation stakeholders.
- Ability 10. Forecast movement and dispersion of hazardous chemical and radiation releases which impacts the NAS.
  - Skill 10.1. Analyze in situ and remote sensing data for the presence of hazardous chemical or radiation releases.
    - Dispersion Basics (COMET, 30 mins) [Training]
  - Skill 10.2. Forecast the movement and/or dispersion of hazardous chemical or radiation releases
    - HYSPLIT Applications for Emergency Decision Support (COMET, 3 hrs) [Training]

Page last Modified: Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:25 AM