Marine Professional Development Series
PCU 2: Forecasting the Marine Environment
Description of Job Competency to be Achieved:
Marine weather forecasters at coastal and Great Lakes Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers must be proficient in forecasting wind and wave conditions in the marine environment. Forecasters will learn how to recognize the importance of surface winds (direction and speed), wind-produced waves and associated coastal and lakeshore hazards (e.g. rough surf, coastal flooding, and rip currents), and other weather conditions which may pose a threat to mariners and residents/visitors in and near the shoreline (including fog and other restrictions to visibility and other potential weather hazards, depending on location).- Core Instructional Components
- Ability 1. Forecast wind in the marine environment.
- Skill 1.1. Demonstrate knowledge of marine boundary layer; how it differs from the terrestrial boundary layer; and how it's unique structure and characteristics influence winds in marine areas.
"Winds in the Marine Boundary Layer: A Forecaster's Guide" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.2. Apply knowledge of sea breezes to surface wind forecasts near coastlines.
"Thermally-Forced Circulation I: Sea Breezes" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.3. Apply knowledge of coastal jets to surface wind forecasts.
"Low-Level Coastal Jets" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.4. Apply knowledge of the structure and climatology of "coastal trapped wind reversals" (CTWRs) to surface wind forecasts.
"Coastally-Trapped Wind Reversals" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.5. Analyze and forecast surface wind in Arctic marine environments.
"Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.6. Discover the phenomena affecting (or are affected by) wind patterns in Arctic maritime environments.
"Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography" (COMET Module)
- Skill 1.7. Elaborate as to how interactions of wind patterns and ocean currents can impact navigation at sea.
"Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography" (COMET Module)
- Ability 2. Understand wind-generated waves and apply wave models to marine forecasts.
- Skill 2.1. Describe basic wave types and their associated characteristics.
"Wave Types and Characteristics" (COMET Module).
- Skill 2.3. Understand basic concepts of swell propagation and dispersion, i.e. how waves change (e.g. height, period, steepness) as they move away from their generation area.
"Wave Life Cycle II: Propagation and Dispersion" (COMET Module)
- IC [CORE for all]: Given initial location and destination, and initial wave parameters, demonstrate ability to forecast swell travel time, i.e. length of time for a given swell system to impact a destination. [TRAINING] "Wave Life Cycle II: Propagation and Dispersion" (Section: "Dispersion") (COMET Module)

- Skill 2.4. Understand how wave behavior changes near coastlines (shallow water wave behavior).
"Shallow Water Waves" (COMET Module)
- Skill 2.5. Demonstrate how to use WAVEWATCH III model data in the marine forecast.
"Operational Use of WAVEWATCH III" (COMET Module)
- Skill 2.6. Understand inputs, outputs, and operational use of the "Nearshore Wave Prediction System" in marine forecast operations.
"Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: List the primary inputs to the NWPS. [TRAINING] "Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Briefly describe the concepts of wave "partitioning" and "spatial/temporal tracking" in the NWPS. [TRAINING] "Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: List the primary sources of error in the NWPS. [TRAINING] "Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Describe how the marine forecaster should interpret "Gerling-Hanson Plots" and how they should be used in wave forecasting. [TRAINING] "Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Describe how to populate wave forecast grids with output from the NWPS. [TRAINING] "Operational Use of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System" (FDTB Module -- pending completion)
- Skill 2.7. Understand "North Wall" effects on winds and waves (along eastern coastlines).
"North Wall Effects on Winds and Waves" (COMET Module)
- Skill 2.8. Be knowledgable of techniques for forecasting waves in Arctic marine environments (with respect to effects of sea ice and other pertinent factors).
"Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography" (COMET Module)
- Skill 2.9. Examine and analyze the freezing rate of sea spray and its hazard potential.
"Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography" (COMET Module)
- Ability 3. Understand rip current concepts.
- Skill 3.1. Understand fundamental concepts of rip currents, including near-shore circulation (and associated terminology, characteristics, and forcing mechanisms).
"Rip Currents: Nearshore Fundamentals" (COMET Module)
- Skill 3.2. Understand how rip currents form (with emphasis on factors most important to the
forecaster's local area) and how to apply observed/model data to help anticipate the risk of rip current formation.
"Rip Currents: Forecasting" (COMET Module)
- Ability 4. Understand other significant marine weather phenomena and hazards.
- Skill 4.1. Understand basic concepts of fog formation in marine environments.
In addition to the modules listed for the ICs below, the following COMET module is recommended for west coast offices:
"West Coast Fog" (available at: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=15 ).- IC: Demonstrate ability to assess potential for fog formation (and intensity and duration) by applying observational data (in-situ and remote) and common forecast tools. "Applying Diagnostic Tools: Forecasting Fog and Low Stratus" ("Advection Fog Case", "Radiation Fog Case", and "Summary of Tools") (COMET Module) [TRAINING]

- Skill 4.2. Understand basic concepts of coastal Flooding and Storm Surge.
(Training Needed: PNS # 13-ME52)- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: List and describe the primary causes of coastal flooding with respect to tropical and extratropical cyclones. [TRAINING]
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Identify geographical areas most prone to tropical and extratropical storm surge. [TRAINING]
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Define key terminology associated with surge (e.g. "storm surge," "storm tide," "total water level," etc.). [TRAINING]
- IC [CORE for coastal WFOs]: Describe the role of astronomic tides (i.e. normal ocean tide cycle) with respect to surge. [TRAINING]
- IC: Identify appropriate numerical weather prediction tools and guidance sources for surge, including their principal strengths, weaknesses, and limitations. [TRAINING]
- IC: Understand how to interpret extratropical storm surge model guidance. [TRAINING]
- Skill 4.3. Understand basic concepts of convection in Marine Environments.
(Training Needed: PNS # 13-ME47)- IC: List and describe the primary hazards (direct and indirect) to mariners associated with convective storms in marine environments.
- IC: Describe the importance of the marine boundary layer and sea surface temperatures as contributing factors to development, or modification, of convective storms in marine environments.
- IC: Describe the importance of the major ocean current systems (e.g. Gulf Stream) with respect to their effects on convective development / modification.
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Page last Modified: Friday, March 29, 2013 6:09 PM




