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000
FOUS30 KWBC 310819
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z WED JUN 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW MLC 20 SSE AQR 25 ESE GYI 10 NW TKI 15 WSW NFW 20 ESE 7F9
10 NW 6R9 25 N SAT 20 SE SSF 55 SSE SSF 15 WNW ALI HBV
20 WSW HBV 20 ESE MMNL LRD 50 WSW COT MMPG 25 NW DRT 40 ESE 6R6
35 SW 6R6 40 ESE E38 10 S FST 20 SE MAF 35 NW BPG 35 SSW LBB
45 WSW PVW 50 WSW AMA 45 NE PVW 35 WNW CDS 40 N CDS 40 SSE WWR
25 ENE P28 WLD TUL 10 NW MLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW PUB 15 NNE PUB 15 WNW LHX 15 SE LHX 35 NW SPD 30 NNE CAO
40 NW CAO 20 E VTP 30 SSW PUB 15 WSW PUB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW LNL 15 ESE RHI ISW 15 NNW LNR 20 SSW MRJ 15 NNW DVN AWG
10 NNE OTM 20 ESE CCY 10 N RPD 10 NE CKC 45 WNW CMX 20 NNW LNL.




...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

A DEEPENING UPR LOW AND ASSOCD SFC WAVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY TUES MORNING OVER NRN ND BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NEWD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ND/MN BORDER BY
WED MRNG.  CONVECTION ALONG ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS MRNG BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING WITH PEAK HEATING DURING
THE AFTN WITH MODEST INFLOW/MSTR SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAINS ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST TUES AFTN/EVE AS UPR JET STREAK
INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE APCHG UPR TROF.  BOTH GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREA FROM ERN IA
INTO THE WRN HALF OF WI AND U.P. OF MI FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT.  PATRN
SUPPORTS POTNL FOR SOME TRAINING BANDS WITH NEAR PARALLEL MID/UPR
FLOW WITH SFC FRONT...WITH 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
SHORT TERM LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINS COULD OCCUR..WHICH WOULD APCH OR
LOCALLY EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER EXISTING FF GUIDANCE VALUES.

..OKLAHOMA/TEXAS/SE CO/NE NM...

A RATHER BROAD BUT INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
TUES/TUES NIGHT ACRS MUCH OF OK/TX INTO PARTS OF SE CO AND NE NM
WITH THE INTERACTION OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL MCS DROPPING
SWD FROM THE THE CNTL PLAINS WITH THE SLOW APCH OF A WEAK UPR TROF
ACRS THE SW U.S. AND CONTINUED DEEP MSTR RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF
THRU SRN TX INTO OK...ALL WITHIN AN AREA WITH AMBIENT LOW FF
VALUES.   MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NEW
CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT..WITH AN ATTEMPT MADE TO EXTRAPOLATE OUTFLOW
FROM EARLY MORNING MCS AFFECTING SRN KS/OK OUTFLOW TO PROJECT
RENEWED DVLPMENT THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...BROADLY DIFLUENT PATRN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER TUE AFTN/EVEN ACRS MUCH OF WRN
TX INTO SRN OK WITH DECENT SLY MSTR FLUX INTO SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BNDRY SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT OF ORGANIZED
TSTMS/PSBL MCS ACRS NRN TX/SRN OK. 00Z HI RES CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTNL FOR LOCALIZED 3 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES ACRS PARTS OF NRN TX INTO SCNTL OK.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
WITH POTNL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACRS W TX EWD TO
THE RIO GRANDE IN REGION...WITH HI RES GUIDANCE AGAIN SUPPORT SOME
SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN SOME OF THE
SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE CONDS INTO SRN CO THIS
AFTN IN A WEAK COL REGION ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLOW
MOVING TSTMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S AND
EAST TUES NIGHT THAT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ANCHORED HEAVY
RAINS AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.


...MIDDLE PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SC COAST
THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD THIS PD.  THE
CIRC REMAINS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT MSTR REMAINS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION TO SUPPORT BANDS OF MDT PCPN..MAJORITY OF WHICH HAVE
REMAINED OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING MON NIGHT..BUT WITH ANY
BREAKS IN OVERCAST TO INCREASE INSTABILITIES...COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE INLAND AS WELL THIS AFTN AND TUES NIGHT.  MANUAL QPF TOOK
A CONSENSUS APCH WITH .50 TO 1 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS THRU ERN NC
INTO THE UPR SC COAST BUT ISOLD NARROW AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL
BE PSBL LEADING TO AN ISOLD THREAT OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVIER RAINS ACRS THIS REGION.

SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 310041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE HNZ 15 NE RIC 10 NNW DOV MJX 30 SE ACY 25 ESE WAL
25 ENE 9W7 30 SE MQI 10 SE HSE 15 SE MRH 20 SE NCA 15 WNW SUT
30 SW MYR 20 ESE OGB 10 NNE SSC 15 N SOP 10 ENE HNZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE LBF 20 NNE ODX 15 NE ONL 25 E PIR 10 NNW MIB 15 N K06D
30 WSW RDR FFM 20 SSW LXL 10 ESE ROS 25 NNW LUM RGK 10 N SLB
20 W LNK 30 SW CNK 10 NNW GBD 25 N DDC 45 SE GLD 35 SW MCK
20 ESE LBF.


0100 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK

ORAVEC


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF NEAR THE
MT/ND BORDER. INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS THEY TAP PROJECTED AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG. EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
ADVANCING HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT FROM
MINNESOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED
STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF AN INVIGORATING SFC WAVE AND PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN. PWS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES THOUGH ISOLD HEAVIER SHORT
TERM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NE INTO KS WITH MODELS SHOWING
THAT AREA UNDER FAVORABLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES MON EVENING.


..TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS..

MUCH OF TEXAS HAS HAS SEEN ITS SHARE OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN
EVENTS OF LATE WHICH HAS LOWERED FF GUIDANCE VALUES CONSIDERABLY
FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MEANING THIS REGION IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN IDENTIFYING ANY LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TODAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITHIN THIS ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
CORRESPONDING MODEL QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND COVERAGE.

BACK TO THE WEST...THE SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE WEAK WITH NO WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN...INITIATING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH ROLLING PLAINS DOWN
TO NEAR AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND. HI-RES GUIDANCE SIGNALS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...ALTHOUGH THE LOOSE DEFINITION OF THE THREAT AREA MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO OUTLINE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.


...MIDDLE PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD...DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC. THE
CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF HIGHER PWS NEAR ITS
CIRCULATION...AS WELL AS A PRIMARY RIVER OF HIGHER TROPICAL PWS
OUT AHEAD...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SOME
BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TODAY WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT
SHOULD BE SMALL. FARTHER NORTH...FOCUSED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WHEREVER CONVECTIVE
CELLS BECOME PERSISTENT FOR ANY AMOUNT OF TIME.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 302018
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...EAST COAST...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE REMAINS THE CENTERPIECE OF THE
EAST COAST FORECAST. BONNIE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAD BECOME DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING
RATHER THAN WARM CORE TROPICAL PROCESSES...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS REGIME NEAR THE LOW CENTER...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL SCALE...NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BONNIE AND THE OFFSHORE STRONG RIDGE WERE ALSO ANCHORING
A CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS ZONE WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRODUCTIVE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE U.S. BORDERS BEING MORE
CONFINED NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER ON TUESDAY. FLARE-UPS OF
CONVECTION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM PA
TO NC...WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. IN FLORIDA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA...WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR ACTIVITY
TO FOCUS OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD OVER TIME...AND WE DID INCREASE
AMOUNTS BASED ON HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. OVER MOST OF THE EAST...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WPC TRENDED TOWARD THE
00Z SSEO MEAN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WRAPS AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH INTO THE DIFLUENT
AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A LENGTHY DURATION
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT. FARTHER
SOUTH...STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A SECOND FOCUS / SEPARATE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES A PRE-EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING A WARM FRONT...FROM THE VICINITY OF
SIOUX FALLS SD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH WARM ADVECTION
CARRYING AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS INTO WISCONSIN. THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...AND 00Z SSEO MEAN...HAD THIS SYSTEM
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ONE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHARPEN UP A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. IN THE AREAS EXPERIENCING EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER...MAINLY CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO THE CAPE
AXIS...PW VALUES AND DECENTLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2.5 INCHES...WHILE
THE MORE STABLE REGION OVER NORTHWEST ND MAY REACH SUCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAINS.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN
STRONGLY BY STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BEING PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THUS...PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF QPF ON 6-HOURLY TIME SCALES IS NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT...BUT THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
24-HOUR TIME SCALE. ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR OVER NEBRASKA...WITH ASCENT INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK BY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT THEN COMING OUT OVER THE SAME REGION ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT
INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN
ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THIS
ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE CORRESPONDING MODEL
QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST
TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND
COVERAGE. WPC QPF RELIED SOMEWHAT ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS WITH THE
LEAD WAVE OVER ARKANSAS/MISSOURI...AND USED MORE OF A CONSENSUS
APPROACH FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS/NEW MEXICO...ALSO INCORPORATING
CONTINUITY.

DAYS 2/3...

...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE ERN PORTION OF CAROLINAS... THUS WPC IS
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINS FOR ERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY AND THURS. THE GFS KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION AND UPPER DYNAMICS INVOF COASTAL NC BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC... WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
BUT STILL KEEPS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL INLAND. WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE TWO WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES EACH DAY BUT WITH THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW DEFINITELY
EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITHIN AND AROUND BONNIE.

...UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL ROLL
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON WED AND THURS. A
STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHERE
A PLUME OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ON WED EXPECT
THIS SWATH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WI AND THE UP OF MI BEFORE
BECOMING MUCH MORE SCATTERED ON THURS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH IS
TRENDING SLOWER.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SRN PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY TX ON
WED AND THURS FEATURING ONCE AGAIN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. A
COMBINATION OF SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT FROM A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM OK INTO TX. THE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS BUT ITS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE THESE RAINS WILL EXACTLY OCCUR... THUS A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THEN ON THURS THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
MORE QUASI-STATIONARY... WHILE THE SWRN TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW
FEATURE EJECT INTO TX. THUS UNFORTUNATELY EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE SATURATED LONE STAR STATE. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HI-RES GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS EACH DAY 2-4 INCH AREAL
AVG AMOUNTS.

BURKE/MUSHER




24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 526089 526081 525077 524062 523049 519037 517027 520017
      527992 528986 528982 528965 526931 525923 524918 519910
      509895 505888 499880 496875 491873 483871 469863 465861
      462862 459861 454864 439870 423881 415885 406889 396891
      385892 378888 370884 365882 361878 358876 353877 341877
      338880 336883 333893 333898 337900 339900 339903 335905
      328910 323909 324904 324897 323892 318871 315860 311850
      309846 308840 308833 309830 311829 312812 322809 330812
      349815 352816 350820 345829 342838 343849 347849 350846
      356839 360830 366822 371817 379811 383807 386804 390801
      392797 393791 393785 390782 385783 381784 378787 374790
      372792 369791 369786 371782 376776 380768 383764 387761
      392758 395760 396767 398769 400768 406762 414753 423739
      424733 423727 421720 422714 430697 433687 434675 433667
      432662 425657 423655 420656 414657 409659 405662 397667
      390674 379686 369701 366705 361709 358711 352713 336720
      326724 317729 311735 310740 312745 319745 325744 330744
      334746 330751 322756 312771 307777 304780 303785 304799
      299807 296809 292809 284807 265800 262799 255800 251803
      249807 249811 251814 257819 265823 275825 280826 284828
      287829 291833 293834 296834 298838 300843 301846 300848
      298853 302862 305870 306883 305893 300902 299907 300911
      304920 308926 317931 321933 322938 322951 325955 328957
      335957 338960 334968 328974 324977 322978 319977 316975
      311974 305973 300971 292971 284973 276977 267978 259982
      253988 249990 243991 237996 236000 237005 238010 241014
      245018 248019 254020 257023 261029
 0.01 261029 270031 275036 291042 297043 300046 303049 305047
      309046 310042 312039 315037 320038 322042 323047 323053
      325060 329068 328080 328085 330090 333096 336099 340100
      345098 346091 345087 345081 347075 353072 369073 375074
      378073 384070 393080 392072 394069 396071 397076 399078
      399076 401071 400067 406062 413059 415056 416052 415047
      411045 396044 387044 381044 377042 370037 372034 377034
      395032 402030 409027 412037 417044 422051 427054 428056
      432054 434050 434044 435033 432023 430018 435017 439016
      443015 450014 454014 454017 451028 445033 441036 440039
      440040 442046 447064 449069 449071 446071 442065 441062
      440065 440071 443073 448078 451081 454086 463087 466090
      467097 466109 467112 471113 480115 485116 487119 493125
      497126 500124 503122 505118 509112 514103 517103 520099
      526089
 0.01 494138 494135 491132 489131 488128 485126 483125 481127
      481128 483131 486133 487134 489137 492138 494138
 0.01 482682 480671 479666 478663 476661 474659 471657 469658
      465664 462671 460678 459687 458691 456694 452698 448704
      445710 444713 445716 448717 452717 454720 456721 459721
      460719 464718 466715 470711 474704 477699 480692 482683
      482682
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 383197 381195 377191 373188 369186 366183 363181 362184
      365189 369191 372194 377196 380198 383197
 0.01 379126 379125 377125 375125 373127 374130 375130 376130
      377130 377128 379126 379126
 0.01 358136 359131 358129 357125 356122 354121 350121 348123
      348125 349128 351130 352133 352137 354138 356138 358136
 0.01 344173 344171 343170 341168 341167 339167 339168 338170
      339171 341171 342173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 277086 274077 272074 273069 274065 273060 272056 268053
      267052 261053 259055 257061 251065 250071 252074 259079
      266084 269087 273088 277086
 0.25 517067 517059 516048 513031 513019 514007 516988 518968
      520958 520949 520939 518932 516925 512918 510917 507917
      501920 497925 493926 489925 483924 479920 476914 476907
      477902 477893 475885 473878 469875 464876 459880 442882
      439886 436893 433900 430906 422914 415926 411932 407937
      401934 395937 390940 386938 385935 383928 381920 383913
      383908 381906 373905 367903 353914 349913 345914 341917
      335922 332928 332935 333941 336947 339949 343948 346944
      349938 361931 364925 371925 374928 378934 379938 377940
      372943 366946 363952 355960 349971 346978 342981 336985
      330988 326990 320991 316990 314988 310983 305978 299975
      291976 286978 260984 257990 255997 254000 256003 258008
      260015 264017 276025 282023 288021 293021 296023 296028
      297031 300033 306032 311028 314022 316017 324016 331016
      333018 333022 330029 331033 333034 348034 353030 357024
      361012 364005 371004 376009 379014 391020 397022 403019
      412010 420001 427992 432988 437984 443982 447983 450985
      453990 455996 462007 469009 471018 471025 469033 468042
      468047 470050 485073 490077 494075 500074 505076 510077
      514075 517067
 0.25 426683 426676 424671 421671 419672 416675 410682 407685
      401686 394687 386693 380699 374705 363718 352732 346739
      343747 338754 332760 324764 317770 313777 312787 314792
      317796 322799 336805 342805 347804 354799 360791 364785
      367775 368771 368764 367757 370753 376748 391739 403726
      409719 414711 422695 426683
 0.25 410945 410942 409940 407941 406942 405943 404945 405946
      407946 409946 410945
 0.25 385799 384797 383798 381798 379799 377800 376801 374802
      372804 371806 371808 373808 374807 376806 378806 380806
      381805 382805 383803 384802 385800 385799
 0.25 366816 364814 363815 361816 359817 358819 358820 357821
      356823 358825 360824 360823 361822 362821 363819 364818
      364817 366816
 0.25 355830 356828 355826 354824 352825 351826 350829 350831
      351831 353832 355831 355830
 0.25 283819 283815 281813 276809 272806 268804 261803 254806
      253808 254812 259814 263817 268820 274821 281819 283819
 0.50 507052 512049 510031 508006 507989 505977 507964 508957
      506951 503946 500941 497941 496942 494946 495951 497957
      498965 492965 488962 485958 483960 480961 477960 473957
      470953 468946 468937 469929 468919 468909 469903 470896
      470891 469888 465885 461886 455888 448888 445888 443890
      441897 440903 437908 429915 426921 424926 424934 426940
      426944 424951 419963 417969 417972 420973 422978 428979
      437975 442973 445972 448974 451977 454982 456989 458994
      461999 466002 470004 475009 475015 474023 474032 475039
      481048 487058 491061 494062 497062 501059 505055 507052
 0.50 422682 422678 421676 417679 410686 403692 398695 392696
      388695 384697 378705 367719 360727 354735 351738 349742
      351746 354750 375742 392733 397731 400727 406719 411711
      415703 419694 422683 422682
 0.50 421994 422988 421982 418981 414982 408985 404986 401984
      401978 400973 394970 395960 393959 389958 386958 382960
      377965 372964 369962 363963 358969 355978 348991 346999
      340002 337005 334003 328001 323000 318000 321005 324008
      325012 331012 337006 342011 348013 351011 353008 357002
      359000 360996 362992 366990 371991 375992 376995 377000
      379004 385006 386011 388014 395016 401014 411005 418999
      421994
 0.50 362771 360765 356761 352757 348758 343761 338765 333768
      329773 323783 325786 329783 334783 337789 335793 334798
      336800 340800 347798 351795 355790 358786 361781 362771
 0.50 348925 349921 348918 345919 343920 341922 339924 337926
      336930 335932 336934 337936 339935 341934 343932 345930
      346927 348925
 0.50 312998 311990 309987 306985 301981 296980 292981 292985
      289987 284988 271984 264986 262989 262993 266999 266009
      271014 274013 275015 276019 279021 286018 293008 295012
      300012 304011 305008 312998
 0.50 309022 310019 309017 308015 307014 305013 303014 303015
      302017 301018 301019 300021 299023 299025 299027 301028
      303028 303027 305027 306026 307025 308024 309022 309022
 0.50 275818 277813 275811 273809 271808 268806 265805 261806
      258806 256807 256811 258812 260813 263815 265817 268818
      270819 274818 275818
 1.00 507034 506027 506017 506008 503001 501995 498990 495985
      490981 486985 482989 479994 478997 479999 480007 480017
      478024 480032 485043 490047 495045 499041 504039 506038
      507034
 1.00 476997 475991 472987 469984 467981 464977 461976 460981
      461986 463991 465994 468997 473998 476997
 1.00 460918 461907 460902 458899 453896 451896 449899 446906
      442911 437915 434921 435930 434938 430952 427960 427966
      432970 437966 442961 444954 448949 452942 455936 457927
      460918
 1.00 416691 414688 413690 408695 405698 401704 398709 397712
      397717 397724 401722 404717 407712 410707 413701 415694
      416691
 1.00 401000 399995 396993 395986 393983 390981 387986 386990
      384995 387995 392993 394997 394002 397004 401000
 1.00 385724 383722 381716 379716 374719 371722 368725 366728
      365732 367735 369734 374733 376737 378737 381734 384729
      385724 385724
 1.00 279999 280998 280996 281995 280995 278995 274996 275997
      275998 275999 277000 278999 279999
 1.00 271812 269811 268810 267810 265810 264811 266812 267814
      268815 270815 270814 271812 271812
 1.50 503026 503013 502010 500007 497000 493992 489991 487994
      484002 483012 482024 485032 491037 494036 497033 502029
      503026
 1.50 449937 449928 448924 447922 442925 440930 440935 438940
      437945 435949 435954 433961 435961 438954 442950 445946
      448940 449937
 1.50 411697 410696 408697 408698 407700 406700 406702 405703
      404705 404706 404708 405708 406708 406707 408705 408702
      409701 410700 410698 411697
 2.00 501021 501016 498011 497008 493003 490002 488005 486010
      485016 484022 485027 487031 492031 496028 499026 501022
      501021

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 545920 546910 544903 544894 542887 541877 540874 540868
      536855 533843 530838 527836 523830 521823 518821 510816
      507814 503816 498819 493820 488827 485830 481832 478833
      474834 459841 456841 454840 450837 441834 436835 430838
      425840 421839 410835 405838 390847 382852 378857 372864
      365869 361871 356869 352868 350865 351864 352861 354859
      357857 363852 369851 372851 374848 375845 375841 373842
      371845 366842 365840 362841 359838 360834 361830 365828
      369829 372826 374822 379822 384823 388825 399825 403825
      407823 413817 418811 421808 420803 422792 424787 422784
      420782 418785 415790 410791 405794 400792 399788 399784
      400781 397779 397775 393773 394770 393767 392763 389760
      384759 380759 381763 381767 376768 374764 372758 371752
      371745 375735 377725 374716 371715 369717 364715 362715
      359718 354719 343737 341741 337744 328751 324755 322759
      319767 316775 314785 312797 307803 302810 296810 291808
      283806 280808 275808 272806 272802 269799 264799 253802
      250805 251810 249813 253816 258819 261823 266830 269831
      271827 275829 280830 283829 289829 296833 299835 301839
      299849 302853 304855 307857 307860 306863 306867 308870
      310872 309874 307876 308880 309886 310887 314884 316886
      314892 311907 315915 319923 318927 316928 312928 296939
      288951 286954 285960 281965 279969 276973 269976 260975
      252976 250977 249984 242990 238994 236999 237004 240009
      246015 254018 259025 266030 274032 278033 281035 288040
      294046 309055 313057 314061 317065 318071 316077 317082
      326087 332096 333103 331108 335114 339115 341109 342109
      344106 349107 351108 353106 351100 354098 355092 357089
      359091 362092 364090 359087 359082 363076 369077 373086
      380086 385076 387081 385086 384090 387088 390083 394078
      395077 397079 396082 395085 397085 398083 398077 399073
      399067 402065 399062 402060 407061 410058 413055 413050
      407045 406032 406026 403027 400029 396026 393024 391027
      388028 386026 384022 382019 383013
 0.01 383013 387004 389999 389992 389986 388980 390976 391971
      397963 398958 401954 408958 412956 419948 425942 431937
      440934 446933 451931 454929 457932 457937 454940 453945
      450949 450954 454957 460964 464967 463975 459982 456999
      462007 461028 459035 458037 461038 467043 470043 472039
      474039 477037 480039 496036 501031 507024 513016 516012
      518007 522998 525989 526980 528972 530961 534951 538944
      540935 542928 545920
 0.01 516270 515261 513255 510249 508243 505237 502232 496233
      497238 500244 502249 505255 507263 510269 513270 516270
 0.01 508285 509278 507274 503268 499261 495254 493248 490244
      489242 487243 486247 486251 489260 493266 496273 499280
      502284 505286 508285
 0.01 516164 516160 515157 514154 512151 509149 508148 505147
      501147 499149 499152 500155 502156 505157 507159 510161
      513163 514164 516164
 0.01 359845 359843 357842 356843 356844 355846 356847 358847
      359845
 0.01 348125 348123 345122 343122 340124 337124 335123 332121
      331125 332127 334130 336132 338134 340131 341129 344128
      346126 348125
 0.01 354850 347848 344848 342850 339852 337850 339845 343842
      343838 343834 341832 339829 337832 337834 334837 334842
      332844 329844 328842 325842 322844 320849 315851 315855
      319862 321868 323870 324872 326870 337865 344864 348866
      349862 347853 351853 354850
 0.01 286072 282065 275060 267056 259052 250049 246051 246056
      248060 251062 260064 267069 274074 280074 284074 286072
 0.25 527947 528940 527933 527919 526906 524894 519877 517869
      516857 517846 516840 514838 510835 506835 502836 489840
      484843 480846 467855 465856 461855 457857 455860 450865
      447866 442866 427867 426862 421864 416868 414872 412874
      406877 400878 395878 390881 387883 386879 385878 380879
      379882 382884 385883 386888 385895 387901 385905 383903
      378898 369898 364899 359903 355901 352900 349901 348911
      345919 345924 342927 336931 334935 331937 326938 325941
      320946 314949 310949 308951 303956 300952 297951 295953
      294956 293961 294966 291970 289972 284974 273979 270980
      267983 262989 260991 255992 248995 245996 245000 249005
      260012 270022 275025 279026 284025 288025 292026 294028
      295025 298025 298028 296033 307039 315037 317040 315045
      317048 321050 323053 322057 324059 328060 335059 340058
      343062 346064 350065 352064 352061 363058 368058 371056
      375055 379058 386060 394057 397056 400055 399053 396044
      393038 390036 386036 379035 374033 370034 365034 362037
      359033 364028 367024 366016 365003 367993 370986 372981
      378982 380980 382976 386961 394948 407923 412922 414924
      414928 413936 416936 417935 424930 428928 431931 438928
      445923 470914 480909 483909 485912 485924 487928 486935
      483941 485944 484946 487952 486970 489978 491990 488996
      487003 488007 491010 497011 504009 508004 515991 519978
      523960 527947
 0.25 388783 385780 380779 377779 375780 372781 369778 369772
      370767 368764 360758 358754 359749 362746 364741 361736
      358735 353737 349741 342747 330759 326762 324767 321776
      320797 324801 322806 320810 321814 329809 330804 328801
      328797 329795 328787 329781 331778 333776 336777 336782
      333791 334794 339792 342790 342793 342799 344803 347806
      349805 350802 349795 356794 359794 357798 354801 353806
      349813 350817 347823 348829 350835 355833 358830 362823
      375808 378801 381797 382793 387787 388783
 0.25 368063 369061 368059 366059 365061 365063 366064 368064
      368063
 0.25 302823 301822 300822 299823 299825 300826 301825 302824
      302823
 0.25 273820 272818 270816 268815 267814 266812 264811 262810
      261811 260813 261815 262817 263818 264819 266820 267820
      268821 270821 272821 273820
 0.50 520955 522945 521935 521918 519904 516894 514888 512880
      512869 511843 508841 504841 495845 488849 480853 472860
      470865 469870 467883 462878 453874 448874 444876 432889
      430890 429894 429899 428901 422908 420913 419917 421916
      424913 432906 437905 441906 443913 445916 450916 453915
      464916 472911 478907 482904 487903 491906 494911 497922
      499937 499942 498947 495961 495969 497973 512965 515966
      518963 520955
 0.50 465908 466905 466903 466900 465898 465896 463897 463898
      463900 463903 463905 463906 465908 465908
 0.50 431883 430882 428883 430885 431883
 0.50 421877 421876 421874 421872 420870 419869 417870 416872
      416874 416875 416876 416877 418878 420878 421877 421877
 0.50 404917 403916 403915 401914 400913 398915 397917 398920
      400919 401918 403918 404917
 0.50 398929 397926 395927 392929 389929 384929 380934 374927
      373925 372921 371918 369917 368918 359925 357925 356929
      354934 350938 346942 341945 337944 333949 324948 315956
      312958 307959 302961 299958 297956 296958 296961 297964
      296969 292974 287976 283976 277979 273982 269986 268990
      266992 261998 258000 259003 263004 267006 271009 275014
      276020 278022 281022 284020 288019 294018 298021 303024
      302028 303030 308028 309032 311035 314035 316032 317028
      321031 322034 322039 322044 320046 323048 334051 337051
      340048 336042 340037 343033 350035 352033 355027 360014
      358012 358008 358006 355005 353004 352000 357997 362989
      365981 366978 368974 373973 376967 379956 385947 393936
      398929
 0.50 393045 390041 387039 382038 377037 375037 369039 368043
      370048 372050 377052 380053 383051 386051 389052 392048
      393045
 0.50 381786 378785 376783 375783 373785 372788 371790 368793
      366794 363796 365798 367798 370796 373794 373792 375788
      377789 380789 381786
 0.50 366771 365767 363765 359762 357760 356756 356750 358746
      357744 350745 344749 340753 332761 330766 329771 333771
      335772 339773 340775 341780 338784 339788 341785 344784
      346785 351788 357790 361789 363787 365780 366771
 0.50 367804 365802 363805 361810 357812 355815 356819 355824
      359823 362821 365818 366811 365807 367805 367804
 0.50 364054 363053 361053 359053 359054 357055 357056 359056
      361056 363055 364054
 0.50 360049 361047 360046 358045 357045 356043 355042 355041
      353040 352040 351038 349039 349040 350042 350044 351045
      351046 353048 354049 356050 358049 360050 360049
 0.50 356826 354824 353826 352828 353829 353828 354827 356826
 0.50 348022 348015 347013 343012 341006 338001 333002 329003
      329004 333008 337012 335019 337025 342028 346028 348022
 0.50 331057 331055 330055 329054 327054 326055 325057 327058
      328059 330058 331057
 0.50 326794 326792 326791 324792 324793 325794 326795 326794
 0.50 325967 325965 325962 326960 325959 323960 322960 321961
      319962 318964 317966 317967 319969 321971 323970 324969
      325967 325967
 0.50 277999 277997 277996 276995 275994 273994 271993 269994
      268994 267994 268995 269995 270997 271998 272999 273000
      275001 277999 277999
 1.00 501862 497860 494861 484865 480869 480877 479884 476888
      471897 470903 474906 478904 482899 488891 493883 495876
      494871 500863 501862
 1.00 387045 387044 385043 385042 383042 382041 380040 378040
      377039 376039 375040 373041 373044 374046 376048 377049
      378049 379049 381049 383048 385047 387046 387045
 1.00 373952 373947 372947 368947 366948 363949 362952 363954
      364956 366961 367963 367967 369967 369963 369958 371956
      372954 373952
 1.00 362774 361770 358769 355767 353764 352753 349750 345752
      342757 338763 336766 338766 340766 342770 346774 349777
      350781 356785 360783 361779 362774
 1.00 357980 356977 354974 352970 352966 350960 346959 344960
      343971 340972 338970 332967 328969 327971 325974 322976
      317973 313969 313964 310963 308965 309969 311972 310975
      309979 309983 306981 305976 301976 298974 295974 293976
      295978 297979 299983 300987 303989 304993 302001 301004
      298005 298008 300011 306013 311009 316009 318009 320005
      320999 320996 322992 326990 329992 331993 333990 334983
      337978 340978 342980 341991 342996 344998 348995 355994
      353991 352988 353985 357980
 1.00 333014 333013 331013 329014 329015 330016 331017 332016
      333014
 1.00 330044 330042 329042 328042 327042 327044 329045 330044
 1.00 314030 312029 312030 312032 314030 314030
 1.00 293991 290987 290981 284978 279980 276984 280989 283993
      281999 279005 280008 284009 286007 287004 287999 289998
      293993 293991
 1.50 478900 477897 476897 475898 474900 474902 475902 476902
      477901 478900
 1.50 382047 383045 381043 380042 379042 378042 376041 376042
      376044 378046 379046 379047 381047 382047
 1.50 358777 357776 357775 355772 353772 353773 352775 352777
      352780 354781 355781 356782 357781 357779 357778 358777
 1.50 349758 349756 349754 347753 346754 345754 344757 344759
      344761 344763 345764 346765 347766 347765 347763 348760
      349758
 1.50 329986 328984 328982 326981 324980 324982 324984 326986
      328987 329986
 1.50 317992 313991 310989 306985 305987 308990 310993 307996
      306002 311004 315002 315996 315994 317992
 1.50 286987 288985 288983 287981 286980 284980 283980 282981
      281981 280983 281984 283985 284985 286987 286987
 2.00 312000 312998 311997 311998 311000 311001 312000
 2.00 285983 284982 283982 282983 283983 284983 285983

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 545768 545765 542766 539767 537765 532752 525746 522742
      520742 519745 514754 511745 500729 495723 491718 489716
      485719 476722 460730 450733 446736 440738 437748 435755
      432756 428753 426757 422766 421772 417771 415769 413769
      409772 405775 400774 397776 395775 395771 397761 396756
      391757 387756 385755 384752 383737 386728 383722 379715
      373713 358726 349733 345736 341740 330753 324760 318769
      316776 312781 301793 299796 297801 293805 296809 290810
      287816 285820 281823 275826 273824 276822 280820 283816
      281810 278806 271800 268800 263801 261797 257796 253798
      248801 246804 245809 243813 244819 246823 249821 252813
      275828 284829 285833 288835 298837 299842 301843 301846
      299849 302851 305850 307846 312843 316845 317850 316853
      314851 311850 309848 309851 311860 314860 317862 317869
      319870 320868 322867 324871 325877 323881 323885 326888
      324891 320896 316907 315910 312911 306911 300911 297911
      295907 291904 290901 290897 293891 291889 287889 285894
      283897 284903 284908 286914 290931 290936 288940 282945
      277951 270955 254965 250967 247972 242981 234988 234998
      237005 244010 257023 264029 269032 282043 291046 298051
      305056 309062 314062 315060 313056 318057 322060 329061
      332061 332063 327067 324070 324073 326077 325083 322087
      325090 329092 331097 333099 337100 340093 344090 348088
      354085 353080 351075 346074 343074 342072 341069 342067
      347067 354071 359072 363076 366079 370082 385083 380076
      381072 384066 386067 387071 389072 390070 392071 396073
      398072 396069 398062 396062 396059 398058 402058 407058
      405052 402051 398052 395050 394044 393040 394035 397025
      395025 393029 387039 384045 383047 379047 377046 377043
      379037 382033 380032 376033 372032 366032 363035 361040
      359042 357040 357035 359031 357029 356025 362020 363016
      363012 365010 365005 363995 363991 364988 365982 368979
      368972 370966 370960 370956 372954
 0.01 372954 380928 382923 384920 391911 393906 396901 394899
      394894 394890 395888 397886 400887 401892 404892 405890
      408887 411885 415884 419880 425879 429876 433874 438874
      447870 452866 455866 458868 464876 465879 464881 459881
      457883 459887 462890 462895 465895 468884 475873 487875
      488876 489879 491887 490894 487900 482907 480912 482917
      483922 482927 483933 486937 488944 489951 491950 494949
      497944 501937 505933 513926 520922 525920 529918 533915
      536908 542898 544885 545877 544871 541852 540842 541834
      543804 545768
 0.01 519276 521266 520259 517249 516240 514235 510225 502202
      497200 494202 492203 489202 485204 481208 476209 470214
      468218 471222 471226 470228 466231 462235 460235 460238
      465247 468251 474253 476264 478266 481268 487270 493277
      498282 503285 508286 512285 515284 516281 519276
 0.01 480228 479226 479224 477224 476225 475225 474227 473227
      472229 473230 475231 476231 477230 478229 480228
 0.01 454108 455102 453098 452092 448092 446097 448099 449107
      448114 445118 444121 448121 450117 452112 454108
 0.01 451078 450075 448073 448072 447070 445069 443069 443070
      443072 444075 446075 448077 448078 449080 451078 451078
 0.01 364794 357793 351791 348789 343785 342781 339781 338786
      337791 340797 343802 349803 354799 358801 362796 364794
 0.01 357045 358042 357041 355042 355044 356045 357045
 0.01 318811 318808 317807 315807 313809 311809 309810 308812
      310813 312813 313813 315813 317811 318811
 0.01 298922 297921 297920 297918 296916 295914 293916 294918
      294920 295922 296922 297923 298922
 0.25 517265 516258 515253 510241 508236 505232 500222 497217
      494214 490218 490221 492228 495233 500243 504252 508264
      511269 513271 515269 517265
 0.25 533798 532789 530785 525784 519785 511789 504788 500781
      497772 494761 492756 490752 484745 480741 477739 472739
      467741 461748 457753 454761 452770 450775 448779 445783
      441784 440777 437775 434775 432779 431786 430790 427789
      424789 421790 412789 404792 399792 395793 390791 385792
      382795 379800 375803 370803 366805 363808 358809 356812
      352813 350818 350820 346819 341820 340825 339830 342834
      342838 339843 339848 341852 342854 340860 341879 347879
      352876 353863 358861 361859 366853 370846 376842 377839
      379841 381845 385847 386850 388852 391852 393849 399840
      400836 399831 399826 403823 408823 412821 419822 422819
      423815 424810 430801 434799 438801 441805 444806 448807
      449813 449817 448821 444827 438833 433842 431846 431850
      432853 443853 450856 454858 459859 461854 461849 464847
      468848 472849 477848 483844 492839 498839 502841 508846
      511846 515843 519838 522829 526821 530812 533798
 0.25 452843 452840 452838 450836 449835 447836 445835 443836
      443839 444839 445841 447842 449843 451844 452843
 0.25 425850 425848 423847 421847 420848 419849 418850 418851
      417853 418855 419856 420856 421855 422855 424853 425850
 0.25 393810 389809 386813 384817 383822 381827 379830 378834
      377838 379841 380834 382831 385828 386824 390820 391815
      393811 393810
 0.25 379739 379734 377730 372730 361732 351738 344744 337753
      332761 329766 328772 327781 325788 326796 331805 334804
      336800 335796 332792 331789 335777 342772 344768 345767
      349770 353779 357783 363784 366782 370778 373773 375768
      374761 373755 370754 372752 375747 379739
 0.25 376053 374049 371047 367050 363050 359051 354053 354056
      357059 361057 365055 369055 374054 376053
 0.25 376900 375885 373878 371876 368874 365874 362876 357880
      354882 349881 346887 348896 343908 340919 335918 330915
      311932 307935 303933 296939 282960 278964 273966 268967
      264970 254979 250983 246987 243990 242997 245003 249007
      254011 259015 270021 279025 285027 288029 288031 290034
      293036 300034 307044 316051 322052 327054 332051 337046
      344037 348032 348025 354013 355005 354997 353987 353980
      356976 356967 359955 363950 364939 366933 368925 367916
      369907 375905 376900
 0.25 369064 368062 367061 366061 364063 366064 368065 369064
 0.25 362067 361065 361064 359064 358065 358067 360068 362067
 0.25 343895 342893 342892 340891 339891 338890 338891 337893
      337895 338897 338898 340898 341897 342896 343895
 0.25 300817 299815 297815 295814 293815 293816 293818 292820
      292821 292822 292824 294825 296825 297824 298821 299819
      300817
 0.25 262807 261805 259804 258804 256805 254805 253806 252807
      252808 253809 253810 255811 256811 258811 260810 261809
      262808 262807
 0.50 512258 512255 511252 509249 508247 507248 508249 508251
      509253 509254 510257 511259 512258
 0.50 509805 508801 507799 503798 499793 497789 495782 492777
      489775 485778 483783 484789 485803 483811 481814 484828
      487832 491834 499829 503825 505819 506813 508807 509805
 0.50 488767 485758 481751 477747 472751 468759 465766 462773
      462776 464777 466777 473773 474770 478769 484770 488769
      488767
 0.50 464822 464819 463817 461817 459818 458818 456819 454819
      453820 453821 451822 451823 451826 452827 453828 455828
      457828 458828 460827 462826 463824 464822
 0.50 422803 418803 415802 411798 407798 404799 401803 399808
      399814 400817 402816 405813 409812 412812 414810 419810
      422806 422803
 0.50 377739 374736 372735 364735 357737 350740 342751 337758
      334764 332767 331770 334770 337770 339766 343764 347765
      352766 357781 361782 365780 369775 369770 369766 363764
      361761 359755 363751 371747 376742 377739
 0.50 379812 376808 373808 366811 364816 361819 356822 356826
      352829 353834 357835 358831 363823 365820 366824 368829
      369832 371832 374828 372823 370822 369819 369817 372816
      377815 379812
 0.50 363845 364843 364840 362839 361841 360843 361845 363845
      363845
 0.50 362054 361053 359053 359054 358054 356056 357057 359056
      360056 361054 362054
 0.50 361934 362924 360914 358912 358909 360905 358902 354904
      352910 351916 350923 345928 339930 334926 330926 327931
      325938 321940 316937 313936 311938 304941 298941 293945
      292952 288956 288961 284966 281968 278968 274969 272972
      263979 253983 247992 246996 247000 252005 261013 271019
      279023 293027 295026 299026 303030 304032 306031 310026
      320024 324023 324028 319033 317037 318039 324040 320044
      315045 316048 320049 327049 330043 335038 340034 343030
      345022 347015 350004 349996 346989 342984 340978 342972
      340964 339959 340954 346951 348954 346959 345966 348972
      350968 349963 351957 354951 357947 359943 361934
 0.50 356843 355841 356839 355838 353838 353839 352842 350842
      348843 347843 346844 347846 349847 350847 352847 354846
      355846 356845 356843
 0.50 310041 309040 308038 307038 307040 308041 309041 310041
 0.50 259807 258806 256806 254808 255810 256810 258809 259807
 1.00 364742 360741 357741 352742 350745 347748 343752 343757
      346761 349760 351757 354753 356750 359747 363744 364742
 1.00 366775 367773 366771 366770 364769 362771 361772 360772
      359774 359775 358776 359779 361780 363779 365778 366775
      366775
 1.00 342008 343006 343004 343002 342000 342999 342997 341995
      340994 340995 339997 339999 339002 339004 338006 339008
      339010 340012 341010 342009 342008
 1.00 340023 340021 340019 340017 340016 339015 338013 336014
      334014 333017 333019 333021 334023 334025 334026 334027
      334029 336028 337028 337027 339026 339024 340023
 1.00 341945 341943 341942 339941 337941 336942 334942 332942
      330943 332945 334947 336948 337948 339947 341946 341945
 1.00 335980 328956 325956 322958 320959 318957 318952 320950
      321947 317945 312943 308945 303956 299959 302960 303963
      300968 294970 287971 282981 281983 281988 279991 276992
      275998 277003 277006 276010 273015 274017 276018 283020
      287019 286012 284008 285003 288003 291005 295008 299008
      304006 308005 309003 311995 317988 321983 328982 334983
      335980
 1.00 332034 333032 332030 330030 329031 328033 328035 328036
      330037 331036 332035 332034
 1.00 331012 330010 329009 328008 327007 326007 324007 323007
      322008 320009 319009 318011 318012 318014 320015 321016
      322016 323016 324016 325015 327014 329013 331013 331012
 1.00 315964 315962 314961 312961 310961 308962 308964 310966
      312965 314965 315964
 1.00 271986 272984 271982 270981 268980 266980 264981 264982
      263984 263986 264988 266988 268989 269988 270988 271986
 1.50 365775 365773 364772 363773 362774 361776 363778 364776
      365775
 1.50 355748 355746 354745 352746 350747 349748 347749 347750
      345752 344754 344757 346758 348758 349756 350756 351753
      352751 354749 355748
 1.50 332978 332977 330975 329975 330976 331978 332978 332978
 1.50 325969 326967 326965 325962 323964 323967 323969 325969
      325969
 1.50 316977 316975 316973 316972 315971 314970 313971 312973
      312975 313977 314978 315978 316977
 1.50 310988 311983 310981 306980 303980 301983 301986 301989
      299994 299996 300997 303996 305994 307992 309990 310988
 1.50 305968 306966 305964 305962 305961 305962 304964 303966
      303967 302968 301969 299970 300973 301974 303973 304971
      305969 305968
 1.50 295000 297998 295996 293998 295000 295000
 1.50 294981 295977 294974 291975 290977 288979 286981 284983
      283987 283991 284994 286997 288999 290997 291993 291991
      292987 293983 294981
 2.00 307988 307985 306984 306983 304983 303983 302985 302987
      302988 304989 306988 307988
 2.00 290991 291989 290987 290985 290983 290982 288983 286985
      285987 285989 285991 286993 287995 288996 288995 289993
      290992 290991

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301905
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST COAST...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE REMAINS THE CENTERPIECE OF THE
EAST COAST FORECAST. BONNIE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAD BECOME DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING
RATHER THAN WARM CORE TROPICAL PROCESSES...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS REGIME NEAR THE LOW CENTER...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL SCALE...NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BONNIE AND THE OFFSHORE STRONG RIDGE WERE ALSO ANCHORING
A CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS ZONE WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRODUCTIVE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE U.S. BORDERS BEING MORE
CONFINED NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER ON TUESDAY. FLARE-UPS OF
CONVECTION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM PA
TO NC...WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. IN FLORIDA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA...WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR ACTIVITY
TO FOCUS OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD OVER TIME...AND WE DID INCREASE
AMOUNTS BASED ON HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. OVER MOST OF THE EAST...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WPC TRENDED TOWARD THE
00Z SSEO MEAN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WRAPS AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH INTO THE DIFLUENT
AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A LENGTHY DURATION
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT. FARTHER
SOUTH...STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A SECOND FOCUS / SEPARATE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES A PRE-EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING A WARM FRONT...FROM THE VICINITY OF
SIOUX FALLS SD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH WARM ADVECTION
CARRYING AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS INTO WISCONSIN. THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...AND 00Z SSEO MEAN...HAD THIS SYSTEM
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ONE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHARPEN UP A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. IN THE AREAS EXPERIENCING EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER...MAINLY CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO THE CAPE
AXIS...PW VALUES AND DECENTLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2.5 INCHES...WHILE
THE MORE STABLE REGION OVER NORTHWEST ND MAY REACH SUCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAINS.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN
STRONGLY BY STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BEING PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THUS...PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF QPF ON 6-HOURLY TIME SCALES IS NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT...BUT THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
24-HOUR TIME SCALE. ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR OVER NEBRASKA...WITH ASCENT INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK BY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT THEN COMING OUT OVER THE SAME REGION ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT
INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN
ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THIS
ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE CORRESPONDING MODEL
QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST
TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND
COVERAGE. WPC QPF RELIED SOMEWHAT ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS WITH THE
LEAD WAVE OVER ARKANSAS/MISSOURI...AND USED MORE OF A CONSENSUS
APPROACH FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS/NEW MEXICO...ALSO INCORPORATING
CONTINUITY.

BURKE/SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 526089 526081 525077 524062 523049 519037 517027 520017
      527992 528986 528982 528965 526931 525923 524918 519910
      509895 505888 499880 496875 491873 483871 469863 465861
      462862 459861 454864 439870 423881 415885 406889 396891
      385892 378888 370884 365882 361878 358876 353877 341877
      338880 336883 333893 333898 337900 339900 339903 335905
      328910 323909 324904 324897 323892 318871 315860 311850
      309846 308840 308833 309830 311829 312812 322809 330812
      349815 352816 350820 345829 342838 343849 347849 350846
      356839 360830 366822 371817 379811 383807 386804 390801
      392797 393791 393785 390782 385783 381784 378787 374790
      372792 369791 369786 371782 376776 380768 383764 387761
      392758 395760 396767 398769 400768 406762 414753 423739
      424733 423727 421720 422714 430697 433687 434675 433667
      432662 425657 423655 420656 414657 409659 405662 397667
      390674 379686 369701 366705 361709 358711 352713 336720
      326724 317729 311735 310740 312745 319745 325744 330744
      334746 330751 322756 312771 307777 304780 303785 304799
      299807 296809 292809 284807 265800 262799 255800 251803
      249807 249811 251814 257819 265823 275825 280826 284828
      287829 291833 293834 296834 298838 300843 301846 300848
      298853 302862 305870 306883 305893 300902 299907 300911
      304920 308926 317931 321933 322938 322951 325955 328957
      335957 338960 334968 328974 324977 322978 319977 316975
      311974 305973 300971 292971 284973 276977 267978 259982
      253988 249990 243991 237996 236000 237005 238010 241014
      245018 248019 254020 257023 261029
 0.01 261029 270031 275036 291042 297043 300046 303049 305047
      309046 310042 312039 315037 320038 322042 323047 323053
      325060 329068 328080 328085 330090 333096 336099 340100
      345098 346091 345087 345081 347075 353072 369073 375074
      378073 384070 393080 392072 394069 396071 397076 399078
      399076 401071 400067 406062 413059 415056 416052 415047
      411045 396044 387044 381044 377042 370037 372034 377034
      395032 402030 409027 412037 417044 422051 427054 428056
      432054 434050 434044 435033 432023 430018 435017 439016
      443015 450014 454014 454017 451028 445033 441036 440039
      440040 442046 447064 449069 449071 446071 442065 441062
      440065 440071 443073 448078 451081 454086 463087 466090
      467097 466109 467112 471113 480115 485116 487119 493125
      497126 500124 503122 505118 509112 514103 517103 520099
      526089
 0.01 494138 494135 491132 489131 488128 485126 483125 481127
      481128 483131 486133 487134 489137 492138 494138
 0.01 482682 480671 479666 478663 476661 474659 471657 469658
      465664 462671 460678 459687 458691 456694 452698 448704
      445710 444713 445716 448717 452717 454720 456721 459721
      460719 464718 466715 470711 474704 477699 480692 482683
      482682
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 383197 381195 377191 373188 369186 366183 363181 362184
      365189 369191 372194 377196 380198 383197
 0.01 379126 379125 377125 375125 373127 374130 375130 376130
      377130 377128 379126 379126
 0.01 358136 359131 358129 357125 356122 354121 350121 348123
      348125 349128 351130 352133 352137 354138 356138 358136
 0.01 344173 344171 343170 341168 341167 339167 339168 338170
      339171 341171 342173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 277086 274077 272074 273069 274065 273060 272056 268053
      267052 261053 259055 257061 251065 250071 252074 259079
      266084 269087 273088 277086
 0.25 517067 517059 516048 513031 513019 514007 516988 518968
      520958 520949 520939 518932 516925 512918 510917 507917
      501920 497925 493926 489925 483924 479920 476914 476907
      477902 477893 475885 473878 469875 464876 459880 442882
      439886 436893 433900 430906 422914 415926 411932 407937
      401934 395937 390940 386938 385935 383928 381920 383913
      383908 381906 373905 367903 353914 349913 345914 341917
      335922 332928 332935 333941 336947 339949 343948 346944
      349938 361931 364925 371925 374928 378934 379938 377940
      372943 366946 363952 355960 349971 346978 342981 336985
      330988 326990 320991 316990 314988 310983 305978 299975
      291976 286978 260984 257990 255997 254000 256003 258008
      260015 264017 276025 282023 288021 293021 296023 296028
      297031 300033 306032 311028 314022 316017 324016 331016
      333018 333022 330029 331033 333034 348034 353030 357024
      361012 364005 371004 376009 379014 391020 397022 403019
      412010 420001 427992 432988 437984 443982 447983 450985
      453990 455996 462007 469009 471018 471025 469033 468042
      468047 470050 485073 490077 494075 500074 505076 510077
      514075 517067
 0.25 426683 426676 424671 421671 419672 416675 410682 407685
      401686 394687 386693 380699 374705 363718 352732 346739
      343747 338754 332760 324764 317770 313777 312787 314792
      317796 322799 336805 342805 347804 354799 360791 364785
      367775 368771 368764 367757 370753 376748 391739 403726
      409719 414711 422695 426683
 0.25 410945 410942 409940 407941 406942 405943 404945 405946
      407946 409946 410945
 0.25 385799 384797 383798 381798 379799 377800 376801 374802
      372804 371806 371808 373808 374807 376806 378806 380806
      381805 382805 383803 384802 385800 385799
 0.25 366816 364814 363815 361816 359817 358819 358820 357821
      356823 358825 360824 360823 361822 362821 363819 364818
      364817 366816
 0.25 355830 356828 355826 354824 352825 351826 350829 350831
      351831 353832 355831 355830
 0.25 283819 283815 281813 276809 272806 268804 261803 254806
      253808 254812 259814 263817 268820 274821 281819 283819
 0.50 507052 512049 510031 508006 507989 505977 507964 508957
      506951 503946 500941 497941 496942 494946 495951 497957
      498965 492965 488962 485958 483960 480961 477960 473957
      470953 468946 468937 469929 468919 468909 469903 470896
      470891 469888 465885 461886 455888 448888 445888 443890
      441897 440903 437908 429915 426921 424926 424934 426940
      426944 424951 419963 417969 417972 420973 422978 428979
      437975 442973 445972 448974 451977 454982 456989 458994
      461999 466002 470004 475009 475015 474023 474032 475039
      481048 487058 491061 494062 497062 501059 505055 507052
 0.50 422682 422678 421676 417679 410686 403692 398695 392696
      388695 384697 378705 367719 360727 354735 351738 349742
      351746 354750 375742 392733 397731 400727 406719 411711
      415703 419694 422683 422682
 0.50 421994 422988 421982 418981 414982 408985 404986 401984
      401978 400973 394970 395960 393959 389958 386958 382960
      377965 372964 369962 363963 358969 355978 348991 346999
      340002 337005 334003 328001 323000 318000 321005 324008
      325012 331012 337006 342011 348013 351011 353008 357002
      359000 360996 362992 366990 371991 375992 376995 377000
      379004 385006 386011 388014 395016 401014 411005 418999
      421994
 0.50 362771 360765 356761 352757 348758 343761 338765 333768
      329773 323783 325786 329783 334783 337789 335793 334798
      336800 340800 347798 351795 355790 358786 361781 362771
 0.50 348925 349921 348918 345919 343920 341922 339924 337926
      336930 335932 336934 337936 339935 341934 343932 345930
      346927 348925
 0.50 312998 311990 309987 306985 301981 296980 292981 292985
      289987 284988 271984 264986 262989 262993 266999 266009
      271014 274013 275015 276019 279021 286018 293008 295012
      300012 304011 305008 312998
 0.50 309022 310019 309017 308015 307014 305013 303014 303015
      302017 301018 301019 300021 299023 299025 299027 301028
      303028 303027 305027 306026 307025 308024 309022 309022
 0.50 275818 277813 275811 273809 271808 268806 265805 261806
      258806 256807 256811 258812 260813 263815 265817 268818
      270819 274818 275818
 1.00 507034 506027 506017 506008 503001 501995 498990 495985
      490981 486985 482989 479994 478997 479999 480007 480017
      478024 480032 485043 490047 495045 499041 504039 506038
      507034
 1.00 476997 475991 472987 469984 467981 464977 461976 460981
      461986 463991 465994 468997 473998 476997
 1.00 460918 461907 460902 458899 453896 451896 449899 446906
      442911 437915 434921 435930 434938 430952 427960 427966
      432970 437966 442961 444954 448949 452942 455936 457927
      460918
 1.00 416691 414688 413690 408695 405698 401704 398709 397712
      397717 397724 401722 404717 407712 410707 413701 415694
      416691
 1.00 401000 399995 396993 395986 393983 390981 387986 386990
      384995 387995 392993 394997 394002 397004 401000
 1.00 385724 383722 381716 379716 374719 371722 368725 366728
      365732 367735 369734 374733 376737 378737 381734 384729
      385724 385724
 1.00 279999 280998 280996 281995 280995 278995 274996 275997
      275998 275999 277000 278999 279999
 1.00 271812 269811 268810 267810 265810 264811 266812 267814
      268815 270815 270814 271812 271812
 1.50 503026 503013 502010 500007 497000 493992 489991 487994
      484002 483012 482024 485032 491037 494036 497033 502029
      503026
 1.50 449937 449928 448924 447922 442925 440930 440935 438940
      437945 435949 435954 433961 435961 438954 442950 445946
      448940 449937
 1.50 411697 410696 408697 408698 407700 406700 406702 405703
      404705 404706 404708 405708 406708 406707 408705 408702
      409701 410700 410698 411697
 2.00 501021 501016 498011 497008 493003 490002 488005 486010
      485016 484022 485027 487031 492031 496028 499026 501022
      501021

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST COAST...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE REMAINS THE CENTERPIECE OF THE
EAST COAST FORECAST. BONNIE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAD BECOME DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING
RATHER THAN WARM CORE TROPICAL PROCESSES...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS REGIME NEAR THE LOW CENTER...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL SCALE...NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BONNIE AND THE OFFSHORE STRONG RIDGE WERE ALSO ANCHORING
A CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS ZONE WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRODUCTIVE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE U.S. BORDERS BEING MORE
CONFINED NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER ON TUESDAY. FLARE-UPS OF
CONVECTION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM PA
TO NC...WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. IN FLORIDA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA...WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR ACTIVITY
TO FOCUS OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD OVER TIME...AND WE DID INCREASE
AMOUNTS BASED ON HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. OVER MOST OF THE EAST...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WPC TRENDED TOWARD THE
00Z SSEO MEAN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WRAPS AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH INTO THE DIFLUENT
AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A LENGTHY DURATION
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT. FARTHER
SOUTH...STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A SECOND FOCUS / SEPARATE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES A PRE-EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING A WARM FRONT...FROM THE VICINITY OF
SIOUX FALLS SD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH WARM ADVECTION
CARRYING AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS INTO WISCONSIN. THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...AND 00Z SSEO MEAN...HAD THIS SYSTEM
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ONE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHARPEN UP A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. IN THE AREAS EXPERIENCING EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER...MAINLY CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO THE CAPE
AXIS...PW VALUES AND DECENTLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2.5 INCHES...WHILE
THE MORE STABLE REGION OVER NORTHWEST ND MAY REACH SUCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAINS.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN
STRONGLY BY STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BEING PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THUS...PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF QPF ON 6-HOURLY TIME SCALES IS NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT...BUT THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
24-HOUR TIME SCALE. ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR OVER NEBRASKA...WITH ASCENT INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITHIN THIS ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
CORRESPONDING MODEL QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND COVERAGE. BACK TO THE WEST...THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE WEAK WITH NO WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ASIDE
FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN...INITIATING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

BURKE/SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 526089 526081 525077 524062 523049 519037 517027 520017
      527992 528986 528982 528965 526931 525923 524918 519910
      509895 505888 499880 496875 491873 483871 469863 465861
      462862 459861 454864 439870 423881 415885 406889 396891
      385892 378888 370884 365882 361878 358876 353877 341877
      338880 336883 333893 333898 337900 339900 339903 335905
      328910 323909 324904 324897 323892 318871 315860 311850
      309846 308840 308833 309830 311829 312812 322809 330812
      349815 352816 350820 345829 342838 343849 347849 350846
      356839 360830 366822 371817 379811 383807 386804 390801
      392797 393791 393785 390782 385783 381784 378787 374790
      372792 369791 369786 371782 376776 380768 383764 387761
      392758 395760 396767 398769 400768 406762 414753 423739
      424733 423727 421720 422714 430697 433687 434675 433667
      432662 425657 423655 420656 414657 409659 405662 397667
      390674 379686 369701 366705 361709 358711 352713 336720
      326724 317729 311735 310740 312745 319745 325744 330744
      334746 330751 322756 312771 307777 304780 303785 304799
      299807 296809 292809 284807 265800 262799 255800 251803
      249807 249811 251814 257819 265823 275825 280826 284828
      287829 291833 293834 296834 298838 300843 301846 300848
      298853 302862 305870 306883 305893 300902 299907 300911
      304920 308926 317931 321933 322938 322951 325955 328957
      335957 338960 334968 328974 324977 322978 319977 316975
      311974 305973 300971 292971 284973 276977 267978 259982
      253988 249990 243991 237996 236000 237005 238010 241014
      245018 248019 254020 257023 261029
 0.01 261029 270031 275036 291042 297043 300046 303049 305047
      309046 310042 312039 315037 320038 322042 323047 323053
      325060 329068 328080 328085 330090 333096 336099 340100
      345098 346091 345087 345081 347075 353072 369073 375074
      378073 384070 393080 392072 394069 396071 397076 399078
      399076 401071 400067 406062 413059 415056 416052 415047
      411045 396044 387044 381044 377042 370037 372034 377034
      395032 402030 409027 412037 417044 422051 427054 428056
      432054 434050 434044 435033 432023 430018 435017 439016
      443015 450014 454014 454017 451028 445033 441036 440039
      440040 442046 447064 449069 449071 446071 442065 441062
      440065 440071 443073 448078 451081 454086 463087 466090
      467097 466109 467112 471113 480115 485116 487119 493125
      497126 500124 503122 505118 509112 514103 517103 520099
      526089
 0.01 494138 494135 491132 489131 488128 485126 483125 481127
      481128 483131 486133 487134 489137 492138 494138
 0.01 482682 480671 479666 478663 476661 474659 471657 469658
      465664 462671 460678 459687 458691 456694 452698 448704
      445710 444713 445716 448717 452717 454720 456721 459721
      460719 464718 466715 470711 474704 477699 480692 482683
      482682
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 383197 381195 377191 373188 369186 366183 363181 362184
      365189 369191 372194 377196 380198 383197
 0.01 379126 379125 377125 375125 373127 374130 375130 376130
      377130 377128 379126 379126
 0.01 358136 359131 358129 357125 356122 354121 350121 348123
      348125 349128 351130 352133 352137 354138 356138 358136
 0.01 344173 344171 343170 341168 341167 339167 339168 338170
      339171 341171 342173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 277086 274077 272074 273069 274065 273060 272056 268053
      267052 261053 259055 257061 251065 250071 252074 259079
      266084 269087 273088 277086
 0.25 517067 517059 516048 513031 513019 514007 516988 518968
      520958 520949 520939 518932 516925 512918 510917 507917
      501920 497925 493926 489925 483924 479920 476914 476907
      477902 477893 475885 473878 469875 464876 459880 442882
      439886 436893 433900 430906 422914 415926 411932 407937
      401934 395937 390940 386938 385935 383928 381920 383913
      383908 381906 373905 367903 353914 349913 345914 341917
      335922 332928 332935 333941 336947 339949 343948 346944
      349938 361931 364925 371925 374928 378934 379938 377940
      372943 366946 363952 355960 349971 346978 342981 336985
      330988 326990 320991 316990 314988 310983 305978 299975
      291976 286978 260984 257990 255997 254000 256003 258008
      260015 264017 276025 282023 288021 293021 296023 296028
      297031 300033 306032 311028 314022 316017 324016 331016
      333018 333022 330029 331033 333034 348034 353030 357024
      361012 364005 371004 376009 379014 391020 397022 403019
      412010 420001 427992 432988 437984 443982 447983 450985
      453990 455996 462007 469009 471018 471025 469033 468042
      468047 470050 485073 490077 494075 500074 505076 510077
      514075 517067
 0.25 426683 426676 424671 421671 419672 416675 410682 407685
      401686 394687 386693 380699 374705 363718 352732 346739
      343747 338754 332760 324764 317770 313777 312787 314792
      317796 322799 336805 342805 347804 354799 360791 364785
      367775 368771 368764 367757 370753 376748 391739 403726
      409719 414711 422695 426683
 0.25 410945 410942 409940 407941 406942 405943 404945 405946
      407946 409946 410945
 0.25 385799 384797 383798 381798 379799 377800 376801 374802
      372804 371806 371808 373808 374807 376806 378806 380806
      381805 382805 383803 384802 385800 385799
 0.25 366816 364814 363815 361816 359817 358819 358820 357821
      356823 358825 360824 360823 361822 362821 363819 364818
      364817 366816
 0.25 355830 356828 355826 354824 352825 351826 350829 350831
      351831 353832 355831 355830
 0.25 283819 283815 281813 276809 272806 268804 261803 254806
      253808 254812 259814 263817 268820 274821 281819 283819
 0.50 507052 512049 510031 508006 507989 505977 507964 508957
      506951 503946 500941 497941 496942 494946 495951 497957
      498965 492965 488962 485958 483960 480961 477960 473957
      470953 468946 468937 469929 468919 468909 469903 470896
      470891 469888 465885 461886 455888 448888 445888 443890
      441897 440903 437908 429915 426921 424926 424934 426940
      426944 424951 419963 417969 417972 420973 422978 428979
      437975 442973 445972 448974 451977 454982 456989 458994
      461999 466002 470004 475009 475015 474023 474032 475039
      481048 487058 491061 494062 497062 501059 505055 507052
 0.50 422682 422678 421676 417679 410686 403692 398695 392696
      388695 384697 378705 367719 360727 354735 351738 349742
      351746 354750 375742 392733 397731 400727 406719 411711
      415703 419694 422683 422682
 0.50 421994 422988 421982 418981 414982 408985 404986 401984
      401978 400973 394970 395960 393959 389958 386958 382960
      377965 372964 369962 363963 358969 355978 348991 346999
      340002 337005 334003 328001 323000 318000 321005 324008
      325012 331012 337006 342011 348013 351011 353008 357002
      359000 360996 362992 366990 371991 375992 376995 377000
      379004 385006 386011 388014 395016 401014 411005 418999
      421994
 0.50 362771 360765 356761 352757 348758 343761 338765 333768
      329773 323783 325786 329783 334783 337789 335793 334798
      336800 340800 347798 351795 355790 358786 361781 362771
 0.50 348925 349921 348918 345919 343920 341922 339924 337926
      336930 335932 336934 337936 339935 341934 343932 345930
      346927 348925
 0.50 312998 311990 309987 306985 301981 296980 292981 292985
      289987 284988 271984 264986 262989 262993 266999 266009
      271014 274013 275015 276019 279021 286018 293008 295012
      300012 304011 305008 312998
 0.50 309022 310019 309017 308015 307014 305013 303014 303015
      302017 301018 301019 300021 299023 299025 299027 301028
      303028 303027 305027 306026 307025 308024 309022 309022
 0.50 275818 277813 275811 273809 271808 268806 265805 261806
      258806 256807 256811 258812 260813 263815 265817 268818
      270819 274818 275818
 1.00 507034 506027 506017 506008 503001 501995 498990 495985
      490981 486985 482989 479994 478997 479999 480007 480017
      478024 480032 485043 490047 495045 499041 504039 506038
      507034
 1.00 476997 475991 472987 469984 467981 464977 461976 460981
      461986 463991 465994 468997 473998 476997
 1.00 460918 461907 460902 458899 453896 451896 449899 446906
      442911 437915 434921 435930 434938 430952 427960 427966
      432970 437966 442961 444954 448949 452942 455936 457927
      460918
 1.00 416691 414688 413690 408695 405698 401704 398709 397712
      397717 397724 401722 404717 407712 410707 413701 415694
      416691
 1.00 401000 399995 396993 395986 393983 390981 387986 386990
      384995 387995 392993 394997 394002 397004 401000
 1.00 385724 383722 381716 379716 374719 371722 368725 366728
      365732 367735 369734 374733 376737 378737 381734 384729
      385724 385724
 1.00 279999 280998 280996 281995 280995 278995 274996 275997
      275998 275999 277000 278999 279999
 1.00 271812 269811 268810 267810 265810 264811 266812 267814
      268815 270815 270814 271812 271812
 1.50 503026 503013 502010 500007 497000 493992 489991 487994
      484002 483012 482024 485032 491037 494036 497033 502029
      503026
 1.50 449937 449928 448924 447922 442925 440930 440935 438940
      437945 435949 435954 433961 435961 438954 442950 445946
      448940 449937
 1.50 411697 410696 408697 408698 407700 406700 406702 405703
      404705 404706 404708 405708 406708 406707 408705 408702
      409701 410700 410698 411697
 2.00 501021 501016 498011 497008 493003 490002 488005 486010
      485016 484022 485027 487031 492031 496028 499026 501022
      501021

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300913
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
512 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU JUN 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

TD BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SE NC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE REMNANT CIRC WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
HIER PWS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION..THOUGH THE MAIN RIVER OF HIER
TROPICAL PWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PD.  SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
STILL PSBL NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER TODAY WITH SOME 1 TO 2
INCHES PSBL..BUT THE AREAL EXTENT SHOULD BE SMALL.  FOCUSED SELY
FLOW FARTHER N SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS INTO NE NC/SE VA AND THE SRN DELMARVA.  ONLY SMALL
CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE MADE GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS..WITH
SOME HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO SOME HI RES GUIDANCE.  ISOLD FF
PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS ACRS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEWD INTO ERN LONG ISLAND.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA ON HOW CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE WITH BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACRS THE SW EJECTING VERY WEAK IMPULSES OUT
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  SURFACE PATRN IS QUITE WEAK HERE WITH NO
WELL DEFINED SFC BNDRY TO FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF A
WEAKENING DRY LINE.  EARLY MORNING MCS ACRS TX APPEARS BEST
HANDLED BY WRF ARW AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS IT DROPS SEWD THRU THE
CNTL AND SRN PART OF THE STATE.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW
BNDRIES PROVIDING MAIN TRIGGERS.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PARTS
OF CNTL/SRN TX NEAR AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND WITH EARLY MRNG MCS
PROVIDING PSBL BNDRY FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON
AFTN/EVE.  USED A COMBO OF WRF ARW/HRRR GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE PD
THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND IN HOUSE BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

NORTHERN AND CNTL PLAINS..INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY

SHARPENING UPR TROF DIGGING SEWED THROUGH SW CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A CLOSED LOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND MOVE TO THE VCNTY OF THE
ND/MT BORDER BY TUES MRNG.  THE STG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT A
DVLPG LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH 85H S TO SWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE WAVE.  INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF STORMS
ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU PARTS OF ND/SD BY MON AFTN SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.  EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT E AND SWD ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT FROM MN SWWD INTO WRN
KS WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED STG BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSECTION OF SFC WAVE AND NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH
SRN MN.  PWS APCHG 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.
 THE WRF ARW IS FOCUSED CONSIDERABLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH QPF MAX
ACRS IA WHICH AT THIS TIME A AN EXTREME SRN OUTLIER.  MANUAL QPF
LEANED CLOSER TO A HI RES NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN GEM CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEP HEAVIER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO PROGGED WARM FRONTAL BNDRY.

DAYS 2/3...


...MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE
DETAILS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND WHERE WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE EXITING STORM...SO PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
BONNIE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
LIFTING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS...WHERE MOIST-LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD FEED INTO DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD (12Z
TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...AND SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
NOT INTRODUCED FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD (12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY).
THE WPC QPF FORECAST STARTED WITH A FAIRLY AGREEABLE GFS/ECMWF.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE COMBINATION OF SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT
FROM A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERN STREAM
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  CONVECTION SHOULD
FOCUS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT IT REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING
TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE.  THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY REMAINED OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DAY
2 (12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.  THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SINKS
SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.


SULLIVAN/GERHARDT




24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 493611 498620 502631 511650 512654 514658 518668 524685
      529704 534727 542766 542773 544779 545794 546809 545815
      545823 544835 543844 541854 539864 537886 536913 536917
      535920 534933 531952 531957 530955 526952 524948 522947
      518942 515939 513935 506890 504883 503872 502862 500854
      496845 494836 490818 488813 487808 484795 483791 482783
      480779 479770 476761 474758 472754 469748 465745 461743
      455740 452738 448741 437749 432754 429760 421769 417776
      411783 400797 397804 392810 383821 375830 366842 363847
      356852 352858 350859 346860 330855 327847 325842 326838
      329833 335828 340823 347818 349817 347815 342816 335815
      332813 328812 321808 318807 315809 308811 303814 304820
      305825 304837 304848 305852 306860 306863 303862 300857
      297848 296836 295832 293830 288828 272828 265826 261822
      255818 250812 245807 245803 249801 252799 257798 266801
      272804 278806 281807 286807 296806 308801 312800 312797
      310796 309790 305784 298786 299779 302774 309769 316764
      320761 324759 323757 317757 311756 305754 303751 299749
      295744 292726 294721 300716 305715 310715 318715 334712
      373707 381705 387701 390699 393695 398688 429644 434639
      437632
 0.01 552138 553121 553112 552104 550099 548093 540085 539078
      538072 535064 527041 524033 521022 518012 513999 510988
      507980 506974 506967 504964 504957 503951 502944 501941
      501935 501931 499929 497924 492921 482919 456894 453891
      450890 446889 443891 439894 437894 436898 433901 427902
      424903 422899 417891 409877 407873 405875 396881 392884
      390888 387902 385906 382911 377917 367915 362914 358911
      352907 348908 345909 337913 328916 319915 315911 313907
      308899 307888 306883 303882 298884 296889 295903 294909
      295912 296916 299925 301931 303934 317945 323950 324952
      323954 322957 316963 309967 302972 300975 295976 292977
      287976 279972 271968 266966 261967 248983 241986 237989
      235991 241996 245998 248002 243008 240011 241013 245022
      246026 249030 252037 258043 267054 274059 278059 281061
      286063 295067 302068 308066 315063 322058 336047 349038
      359036 363035 368039 375033 380027 383026 385029 386032
      391034 395035 393039 386048 384053 384059 385063 384067
      382069 378069 376071 375080 380085 385088 387091 392099
      395103 391107 384110 378114 371115 361118 352119 350121
      355124 360127 368133 372138 375143 377146 381144 382136
      382131 384129 389121 395114 403111 407110 409105 408099
      404097 400094 398092 398089 400084 402078 407077 410076
      413075 415071 416064 416059 417049 420041 425034 429029
      432028 435029 439032 441038 440040 441043 445041 445031
      447030 450031 452034 455045 456049 454051 451053 446060
      440059 437061 434066 434069 435071 443076 446084 448087
      445091 442093 438091 435088 432087 428084 425085 427090
      431093 439098 446101 451105 453108 456111 463108 466107
      467110 469115 474124 483140 488140 492142 500144 504143
      508144 516146 528157 532160 535160 543160
 0.01 543160 544158 545158 546156 546155 548153 548150 549148
      550146 550145 551143 551140 552138
 0.01 383197 379193 375189 371185 364183 361182 355182 353184
      355186 361188 366191 370195 377197 383197
 0.01 393968 394954 394950 392948 389950 384956 380961 377963
      375965 370967 362970 356976 357982 360984 365985 368985
      375980 382975 389970 393968
 0.25 525738 523727 522719 519703 514686 509673 503659 499654
      494655 492656 491660 484662 480667 479673 483681 487684
      490684 491686 491690 490693 490696 491701 493707 493723
      493732 494742 495752 497760 499769 500779 501789 503793
      507800 511799 515794 517787 518778 518770 523766 524760
      525738
 0.25 524110 525104 524098 522087 520077 519067 517051 512032
      506016 500999 497993 493987 488983 484977 479958 477950
      476939 474930 471921 465910 460903 456901 453901 448905
      445913 440926 437931 431936 421950 417954 412961 409967
      402969 392975 386979 380986 376992 374999 373008 374010
      378011 384011 390015 395020 399021 402019 412010 426987
      434984 436985 436989 434993 434996 437999 444002 450004
      455008 460013 463018 468052 474065 478070 482076 486083
      492089 502100 506106 510112 513117 515124 517125 519122
      521117 524110
 0.25 528846 528836 526826 523826 519832 516837 514844 514853
      516861 519868 522872 524870 525868 527860 527849 528846
 0.25 459652 459649 458648 457647 455646 455645 454645 452645
      450647 449649 449650 448652 447653 446655 446656 445658
      447659 449658 450657 451657 452656 453655 455654 457653
      458652 459652
 0.25 442672 441663 439662 436663 430670 417682 403697 395703
      388707 378714 370718 359722 349724 338727 328733 327737
      327742 332750 335754 338758 340764 338767 333769 330771
      328775 327778 328781 329785 327791 327798 330802 332805
      336806 345804 355798 360791 365784 372777 380771 387765
      399751 412737 422722 428711 432701 439685 441677 442672
 0.25 363943 364938 363934 361929 357924 352922 344923 341926
      338932 338937 339940 342945 346949 352951 357949 361945
      363943
 0.25 353007 350000 345998 340000 338002 335001 335998 332996
      332992 324989 317990 314991 313989 312981 309977 303977
      298979 293982 290987 288989 285989 279988 267988 264990
      264994 265000 265006 267011 269019 272023 281029 293034
      299034 303032 308028 314026 319026 323025 325018 327016
      330015 341017 346017 351014 353007
 0.25 270816 270814 267812 265810 263809 261807 259805 256804
      252805 252808 254810 255812 257813 259815 261817 263819
      266820 268818 270816
 0.50 512728 511715 509705 507695 505690 503688 499695 498705
      499714 500724 501736 504743 507746 509745 512736 512728
 0.50 513066 514056 514051 513045 510034 502013 497003 493998
      489997 485000 482999 479996 476992 477987 475979 473972
      472964 471960 467957 468949 467940 465935 462928 458918
      455912 452910 448920 446925 443930 436938 430947 425954
      419964 415975 425977 435975 447972 451974 454979 454987
      450991 448995 450000 460008 466015 473022 479027 483024
      485030 487033 486036 482034 479032 477033 480038 482040
      480043 479046 480050 483052 489051 493056 496064 498070
      501072 504072 510070 513066
 0.50 424703 423699 420694 417692 414694 409699 402703 396709
      389713 376721 367725 360727 351730 343733 340734 340738
      342742 343746 344751 347753 352758 353764 352769 350772
      346774 341774 339773 337775 337782 336787 331792 331798
      334801 338801 345796 351795 356790 360785 383764 394752
      404743 410736 415730 418723 421716 423708 424703
 0.50 405003 406995 403991 397991 396987 397982 395979 392980
      388981 383988 378997 376002 377008 381008 384006 388007
      390011 395018 399015 401012 405003
 0.50 354941 355938 354936 354934 353934 352933 351932 350931
      348931 346932 345932 343934 344936 344939 345939 346940
      347941 348941 350942 352942 354941 354941
 0.50 322005 323003 323000 319999 313002 310994 309988 309982
      307980 299980 294983 292991 289993 284993 279995 275000
      274007 274015 277022 283024 290026 297025 303021 307017
      310016 314016 316014 316011 316008 320008 322005
 1.00 508040 506032 504026 501020 498014 495009 490006 487012
      488020 491027 494031 499034 504037 508040
 1.00 474009 474001 472996 470992 468989 464987 460989 457993
      459998 462001 465003 468006 471010 474009
 1.00 464981 465979 465976 465974 464971 462970 460971 459974
      459976 459979 460981 462983 464983 464981
 1.00 455940 455932 454927 451926 449928 447931 442938 435945
      431952 428956 426961 426966 430968 433969 436967 442960
      446952 452946 455940
 1.00 393997 392997 391995 391994 389993 388993 388990 387990
      385992 385993 385995 384997 383997 383999 383000 385000
      386999 387999 389999 390998 392998 393997
 1.00 381754 379750 374751 371752 366754 363758 364764 363769
      363772 366772 371770 374768 377764 379759 380756 381754
 1.00 353782 353780 352779 350779 348780 347782 346783 345784
      345785 344788 346789 348789 349788 351786 352784 352782
      353782
 1.00 338795 339793 337792 336793 335794 335795 335797 336798
      337797 338795
 1.00 307007 307002 306997 304994 303987 303983 297983 295986
      295991 293996 293001 295004 298008 302010 306009 307007
 1.50 498026 498023 498022 497021 497018 496016 495013 493010
      491010 490013 490015 490018 490020 491022 491023 493025
      494027 496028 498027 498026
 1.50 449942 449935 447937 444940 442943 439947 437950 435955
      433959 433962 435962 437959 439954 442951 445947 447945
      449942
 1.50 374765 372765 370765 370766 372766 374765
 1.50 302002 302000 302998 301996 300994 299995 298996 297998
      297000 298002 299002 300003 302002

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 542089 542083 540079 538075 536073 528074 525072 524067
      524052 523044 517029 516024 515018 516012 518007 525991
      527981 530971 530956 532947 532940 530935 528925 523905
      518889 516879 515874 514868 512854 510841 505834 502827
      493814 476816 472817 469820 465826 455838 445847 439851
      436852 432852 427852 422852 417853 413856 410861 406869
      403873 400874 396876 395880 392889 388894 382898 376901
      358900 351898 344895 334889 318883 304888 300891 298895
      296902 295906 297910 300916 301920 303923 309927 314933
      320938 322940 323945 322950 321954 309961 276969 251985
      244987 240993 238996 239000 239004 240008 247011 251016
      253024 258027 262029 268029 276029 292033 297035 302034
      312035 315034 318036 320042 323045 326047 332051 334054
      339056 347058 371073 376078 381078 384077 393068 396064
      400062 405063 407061 411059 410055 408050 406049 399045
      394041 389039 385037 383034 382029 382024 383022 385018
      388016 395014 399009 404004 407997 410987 415980 423966
      430961 435957 439954 444955 448955 452957 457962 460965
      459968 457969 452973 450978 450983 448986 448990 449994
      450999 451006 448015 445024 440031 436038 438044 440048
      443052 445056 444062 438065 438069 440072 446077 449080
      453081 456083 459084 464090 469095 474100 477102 482103
      487105 491104 499103 507104 512103 516106 519106 522105
      534102 542089
 0.01 433657 431646 429642 426640 421642 416648 412653 410650
      407647 403646 400649 395655 379663 373667 369672 363677
      356682 348685 345687 340688 331691 326695 320700 315705
      313706 312710 313716 311720 309724 309728 310734 312736
      316740 324743 328742 327746 323749 313759 307765 303772
      302775 303781 303788 304791 306794 309795 313795 342803
      347800 351798 356797 363798 365796 369797 350822 348829
      344835 344838 347840 353838 358834 362827 365820 370813
      376808 384804 389800 393794 392785 390783 387783 379787
      376788 375786 376783 376779 377776 382769 385763 384758
      383755 379746 380735 383732 386733 394734 401732 408727
      412721 415715 424680 426674 428668 433657
 0.01 412103 412101 411100 409100 408099 407100 407103 407105
      407106 409106 410105 411104 412103
 0.01 374191 373189 372188 371186 369186 368186 366187 366189
      367190 369191 370192 370193 371192 372192 374191
 0.01 358136 359131 358129 357125 356122 354121 350121 348123
      348125 349128 351130 352133 352137 354138 356138 358136
 0.01 345173 345171 344170 343169 342168 341167 339167 338168
      338170 339171 340172 341173 342174 344174 345173
 0.01 342098 342091 341087 341082 340076 338073 334075 332079
      332084 333086 335093 336097 340098 342098
 0.01 311826 310821 308817 299813 285806 283808 280806 277804
      268801 264800 259801 252806 263819 266823 269825 273826
      278825 281827 285829 289831 293834 295833 298837 300851
      302860 305863 311862 311852 309847 309839 311826
 0.01 277086 274077 272074 271072 273069 273060 272056 268054
      267052 261053 259055 257061 251065 250070 252073 259078
      266083 269087 273088 277086
 0.25 520973 521963 521955 521944 520938 516927 509921 502913
      495904 494895 495888 497873 500860 501854 499846 497840
      494836 491833 487833 482835 477839 471845 463854 458856
      452857 443862 435869 433874 429877 422882 409896 401905
      398908 392912 382911 376911 370913 360916 351917 343921
      339925 336930 334944 330956 323964 315969 305973 295973
      290974 285977 276984 267987 265989 265993 269996 276002
      281005 286007 291009 294012 302016 314020 323020 333025
      338027 345027 351028 356027 364020 377008 384000 387996
      390990 392984 394979 402972 408963 415955 422948 428943
      436937 447933 452931 458931 463932 468935 471939 473944
      475961 476967 476974 474988 469016 467031 465039 462042
      463049 466052 477050 487049 490048 494044 500035 504030
      506025 509009 513998 517985 520973
 0.25 405684 405679 403674 397673 393674 389676 384680 366702
      361707 357712 355718 355728 347740 343744 336749 326758
      321762 317768 314774 316778 318779 325776 332777 337781
      340782 343781 349777 355775 362771 366766 367758 365746
      367737 370733 375728 380722 384716 388715 391716 395716
      397713 399706 405684
 0.25 394055 394050 392048 388045 381043 376041 371039 364037
      361038 361043 363049 367053 374055 379056 385056 391056
      394055
 0.25 290020 289016 287013 282009 276005 271000 264997 260996
      255998 250002 252004 256006 264008 269011 274016 281020
      289021 290020
 0.50 515970 516962 516955 515942 514936 511932 508929 505929
      500931 496930 493928 487928 484931 482936 482949 482977
      479002 478016 479030 482034 487034 494030 498027 500024
      502019 503013 510993 513981 515970
 0.50 494863 495856 494850 492846 489844 482846 477850 471855
      467862 452868 432888 427893 422899 418907 415916 412922
      408923 402923 394922 389919 383916 378916 373918 370920
      364925 351934 347939 343945 335958 330964 325969 275991
      279996 281999 287998 297991 301990 303993 307001 310007
      313008 315007 316003 316997 320998 326002 331006 337010
      341015 343018 348018 352017 355014 357011 361009 381991
      384982 387975 392969 395965 396961 398954 404948 414940
      421935 428933 442926 447923 454919 463919 469917 477916
      481908 487890 491878 493870 494863
 0.50 384706 380702 377703 374705 370709 369712 366717 366721
      369725 373725 376722 377719 380714 382711 384706
 0.50 386049 386047 385046 383045 381045 380045 378044 376044
      374045 372046 372047 372048 374050 376051 377051 379051
      381051 382051 383051 385051 386049
 0.50 360747 359742 353743 347748 340753 334760 331766 336765
      340766 343770 341775 343777 348774 355769 357766 358761
      358755 359750 360747
 0.50 328768 327767 325766 323768 322769 324770 325769 327768
      328768
 1.00 497010 498005 497000 496998 494995 490995 488997 487000
      487004 487007 488012 489015 490018 493018 495017 496013
      497010
 1.00 488866 488860 484860 479866 475872 471880 467884 459883
      451883 444886 438902 436909 438911 443910 449907 457905
      469907 472900 477892 483878 488866
 1.00 432914 431911 429912 428913 426914 424916 423919 422920
      422921 422922 424922 425921 426920 427919 428918 429917
      430916 431914 432914
 1.00 362978 362972 359968 349971 345971 341967 337967 334969
      330973 327977 329983 332986 333991 335999 337003 342005
      348006 353003 355999 355994 357989 359985 362978
 1.50 465898 465894 463893 461891 458890 454890 451891 450894
      449896 450900 453899 456898 458897 462898 464898 465898
 1.50 341984 342982 342980 341978 339977 337977 337978 336980
      336982 337984 337986 338986 339987 340986 341986 341984

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 545774 545766 544761 540753 534739 530733 528731 524731
      518731 512730 505732 502738 494748 490755 486761 476774
      451788 438796 430805 411826 402835 396839 391844 385848
      381853 376857 372863 367867 363869 359868 352868 344868
      336869 330872 325882 323885 324889 325894 325898 325904
      324908 324914 321917 314922 308924 295928 290931 284934
      281935 279939 277946 274951 269956 265961 260965 248970
      247974 245976 241978 240981 235988 232994 235000 238006
      248014 256023 262029 269031 276033 282037 299055 309064
      313069 318074 327081 330084 334085 337087 341087 347090
      351090 354089 357089 359087 363081 367080 371080 378081
      388082 393078 400074 405070 412060 413057 411054 406049
      403046 400046 392044 386042 380039 372029 369022 370014
      371008 372003 376997 380993 381989 385984 389978 393972
      407949 416935 424924 429920 436918 438917 442917 448920
      453925 457930 460940 462943 462947 468963 476972 480973
      484974 491975 502967 509965 515965 522965 525965 527963
      535949 539942 541934 546919 545906 544901 544895 544888
      545882 544871 542860 541848 541839 541829 543809 544798
      544789 545774
 0.01 520271 521263 519257 516252 513247 507238 504228 501222
      498218 494215 489213 486217 486220 488221 491226 493232
      494238 497244 500248 500253 487240 483236 477234 474236
      474242 475249 473254 471263 472268 478269 481267 484267
      487269 490273 497281 502285 507286 514279 517276 520271
 0.01 516164 516160 515157 514154 512151 509149 508148 505147
      501147 499149 499152 500155 502156 505157 507159 510161
      513163 514164 516164
 0.01 407728 406719 402711 396695 394684 395680 395674 391667
      387663 378665 374671 367684 363688 361696 359714 357721
      352726 342735 331746 323756 308780 305787 306789 309792
      314791 320787 323787 324790 322793 320801 316806 309809
      302810 295809 288807 283804 276801 273801 270798 264796
      257797 250800 247806 249812 251814 257818 261823 265828
      268829 272830 279830 285829 289829 291831 297835 302840
      305842 309842 312843 316843 320843 323845 329848 336852
      338854 342854 350853 358852 363847 367842 368834 371826
      374819 377814 387804 393789 391771 391761 393754 402744
      406736 407728
 0.01 286072 282065 275060 267056 259053 250049 247051 246056
      248059 251062 260064 267069 274074 284074 286072
 0.25 534789 534783 533778 531771 528766 524762 518763 514765
      504772 497779 488787 479794 469801 460808 452816 437834
      431843 427847 422851 417855 413858 405866 389881 384886
      379888 368891 356894 346899 342903 338908 334919 331925
      328930 320937 311942 300946 294949 291953 285961 277968
      268974 249986 245990 242997 245002 249004 257011 265017
      277022 286027 305040 310043 318045 323046 330046 336043
      340040 349035 352020 353014 353005 353994 355987 362978
      369971 372966 375959 380946 384935 390926 398919 417905
      426898 431896 435894 448892 459888 471884 481881 486884
      490889 492896 491902 490909 490919 490924 490933 492939
      496944 501945 505944 514938 526934 529822 531813 531803
      534789
 0.25 514266 514260 512255 510252 508247 506242 504238 502237
      499237 499240 501245 503249 505254 507258 509263 512267
      514266
 0.25 383694 382687 379686 377690 374694 374697 373702 369711
      365719 360727 346739 342743 340748 339753 341757 349762
      350764 348769 347774 351777 362775 367775 372775 375772
      377767 375752 376746 378741 381733 382727 382720 382707
      383696 383694
 0.25 374053 374051 374050 373048 372048 371047 369047 367047
      366048 366050 366052 367052 368054 370054 372053 374053
      374053
 0.50 525794 522787 517785 512785 508787 504787 498791 488797
      471811 461819 458824 455829 450841 449848 451853 454860
      456867 454874 458875 461874 465871 476866 484864 491863
      497860 505853 512843 517830 519823 520816 525794
 0.50 524918 524913 521910 518906 515902 511901 508903 505907
      504914 501921 502926 504929 510926 515924 520922 523920
      524918
 0.50 431859 431854 429854 424857 420860 417865 415868 415872
      412877 408882 413881 418877 421873 425869 428864 431859
 0.50 417891 416890 415890 413891 411892 410893 409894 408895
      407896 408897 410897 411896 413895 414893 415892 416891
      417891
 0.50 376730 375726 374724 371723 368725 359733 350740 346745
      346748 347751 358754 359756 359761 356765 352769 353773
      355773 360771 365767 368761 366753 368746 371741 374736
      376730
 0.50 375927 376919 374914 372911 368909 363908 357909 353910
      350913 345922 341930 335936 328941 319944 311948 303952
      296957 291965 285971 270980 264985 258992 252998 258004
      289020 298024 306028 315031 319031 324029 339020 343018
      345013 343002 338994 335989 335986 339978 342974 346972
      354968 360962 365954 369945 373935 375927
 1.00 505828 506821 505813 503810 498811 495814 492818 490822
      490828 492833 494836 498837 501841 504839 505831 505828
 1.00 364740 365737 363737 362738 360739 358740 357741 356741
      355743 354744 355746 356746 357745 359744 361743 362742
      364740 364740
 1.00 327975 326966 324958 322954 319953 313956 307959 301964
      293975 287979 281981 275986 273989 272993 277999 283001
      290004 297002 300000 304002 309002 313999 314996 317989
      321983 326977 327975
 1.50 300985 299981 297981 295982 293984 292985 288987 286988
      284989 286990 290990 293990 296989 298987 300985

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300828
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...VALID 12Z MON MAY 30 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 N 9V9 20 WSW MBG 35 SW KY19 20 WSW KHZE 20 S K08D 15 S KD50
30 SSW CWWF 25 ENE CWWF 20 WNW CWEI 30 SE CWEI 20 NE K5H4
20 N KBAC 20 WSW FAR 20 SW FFM 15 WSW AXN 10 SSW LXL ROS
20 NNE LUM RGK 25 WNW AEL 15 N SLB 15 NNE TQE 20 NW FET HJH
25 NW SLN 15 NNE GBD 25 NE DDC 20 ENE GCK 45 ESE GLD 35 SW MCK
20 NW MCK 25 E LBF BBW 25 E ONL 40 N 9V9.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S MRH 25 ESE SUT 35 SSE MYR 40 S MYR 30 E CHS 10 NNE CHS
30 SE SSC 15 W MEB 10 WNW JNX 20 S RZZ 10 SSW PHF 25 ESE NHK
10 SW MIV 15 N BLM 10 NNE HTO 20 SSE MTP 65 ESE MJX 80 ESE WWD
55 SE WAL 20 ESE HSE 40 SE MRH 35 S MRH.


NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

THREAT OF ISOLD TO PSBL ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
THIS PD ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPR TROF THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF NEAR MT/ND BORDER BY TUES MRNG.  INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA
OF STORMS ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU PARTS OF ND/SD BY MON AFTN
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS THEY TAP PROJECTED AFTN
SBCAPES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 THSD J/KG   EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT E AND SWD
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT FROM MN SWWD INTO
WRN KS WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED STG BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSECTION OF SFC WAVE AND NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH
SRN MN.  PWS APCHG 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
THOUGH ISOLD HEAVIER SHORT TERM AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES OR MORE
WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NEB INTO SRN MN ALONG
INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE
REGION.  ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS/PSBL MCS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
SRN END OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN NEB/KS WITH MODELS SHOWING
THAT AREA UNDER FAVORABLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STGR WLYS MON
EVENING.

..TX..

MUCH OF TX HAS HAS SEEN ITS SHARE OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN EVENTS
OF LATE WHICH HAS LOWERED FF GUIDANCE VALUES CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PANHANDLE SWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FF CONCERNS.  THAT SAID..VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
WITH BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF ACRS THE SW EJECTING VERY WEAK IMPULSES OUT ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.  SURFACE PATRN IS QUITE WEAK HERE WITH NO WELL DEFINED SFC
BNDRY TO FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING DRY LINE.
EARLY MORNING MCS ACRS TX APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY WRF ARW AND HRRR
GUIDANCE AS IT DROPS SEWD THRU THE CNTL AND SRN PART OF THE STATE
THREATENING PORTIONS OF S TEXAS EARLY IN THE PD FOR LOCALIZED
RUNOFF CONCERNS.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE
DRIVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW BNDRIES PROVIDING
MAIN TRIGGERS.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PARTS OF CNTL/SRN TX NEAR
AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND WITH EARLY MRNG MCS PROVIDING PSBL BNDRY
FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON AFTN/EVE.  BASED ON
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE...WHERE THE STGR AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOP...POTNL FOR SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE PSBL.

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

TD BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SE NC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE REMNANT CIRC WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
HIER PWS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION..THOUGH THE MAIN RIVER OF HIER
TROPICAL PWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PD.  SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
STILL PSBL NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER TODAY WITH SOME 1 TO 2
INCHES PSBL..BUT THE AREAL EXTENT SHOULD BE SMALL.  FOCUSED SELY
FLOW FARTHER N SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS INTO NE NC/SE VA AND THE SRN DELMARVA.   ISOLD FF
PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS ACRS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEWD INTO ERN LONG ISLAND.

SULLIVAN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300629
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

TD BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SE NC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE REMNANT CIRC WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
HIER PWS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION..THOUGH THE MAIN RIVER OF HIER
TROPICAL PWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PD.  SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
STILL PSBL NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER TODAY WITH SOME 1 TO 2
INCHES PSBL..BUT THE AREAL EXTENT SHOULD BE SMALL.  FOCUSED SELY
FLOW FARTHER N SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS INTO NE NC/SE VA AND THE SRN DELMARVA.  ONLY SMALL
CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE MADE GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS..WITH
SOME HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO SOME HI RES GUIDANCE.  ISOLD FF
PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS ACRS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEWD INTO ERN LONG ISLAND.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA ON HOW CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE WITH BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACRS THE SW EJECTING VERY WEAK IMPULSES OUT
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  SURFACE PATRN IS QUITE WEAK HERE WITH NO
WELL DEFINED SFC BNDRY TO FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF A
WEAKENING DRY LINE.  EARLY MORNING MCS ACRS TX APPEARS BEST
HANDLED BY WRF ARW AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS IT DROPS SEWD THRU THE
CNTL AND SRN PART OF THE STATE.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW
BNDRIES PROVIDING MAIN TRIGGERS.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PARTS
OF CNTL/SRN TX NEAR AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND WITH EARLY MRNG MCS
PROVIDING PSBL BNDRY FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON
AFTN/EVE.  USED A COMBO OF WRF ARW/HRRR GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE PD
THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND IN HOUSE BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

NORTHERN AND CNTL PLAINS..INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY

SHARPENING UPR TROF DIGGING SEWED THROUGH SW CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A CLOSED LOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND MOVE TO THE VCNTY OF THE
ND/MT BORDER BY TUES MRNG.  THE STG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT A
DVLPG LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH 85H S TO SWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE WAVE.  INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF STORMS
ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU PARTS OF ND/SD BY MON AFTN SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.  EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT E AND SWD ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT FROM MN SWWD INTO WRN
KS WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED STG BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSECTION OF SFC WAVE AND NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH
SRN MN.  PWS APCHG 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.
 THE WRF ARW IS FOCUSED CONSIDERABLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH QPF MAX
ACRS IA WHICH AT THIS TIME A AN EXTREME SRN OUTLIER.  MANUAL QPF
LEANED CLOSER TO A HI RES NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN GEM CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEP HEAVIER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO PROGGED WARM FRONTAL BNDRY.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 493611 498620 502631 511650 512654 514658 518668 524685
      529704 534727 542766 542773 544779 545794 546809 545815
      545823 544835 543844 541854 539864 537886 536913 536917
      535920 534933 531952 531957 530955 526952 524948 522947
      518942 515939 513935 506890 504883 503872 502862 500854
      496845 494836 490818 488813 487808 484795 483791 482783
      480779 479770 476761 474758 472754 469748 465745 461743
      455740 452738 448741 437749 432754 429760 421769 417776
      411783 400797 397804 392810 383821 375830 366842 363847
      356852 352858 350859 346860 330855 327847 325842 326838
      329833 335828 340823 347818 349817 347815 342816 335815
      332813 328812 321808 318807 315809 308811 303814 304820
      305825 304837 304848 305852 306860 306863 303862 300857
      297848 296836 295832 293830 288828 272828 265826 261822
      255818 250812 245807 245803 249801 252799 257798 266801
      272804 278806 281807 286807 296806 308801 312800 312797
      310796 309790 305784 298786 299779 302774 309769 316764
      320761 324759 323757 317757 311756 305754 303751 299749
      295744 292726 294721 300716 305715 310715 318715 334712
      373707 381705 387701 390699 393695 398688 429644 434639
      437632
 0.01 552138 553121 553112 552104 550099 548093 540085 539078
      538072 535064 527041 524033 521022 518012 513999 510988
      507980 506974 506967 504964 504957 503951 502944 501941
      501935 501931 499929 497924 492921 482919 456894 453891
      450890 446889 443891 439894 437894 436898 433901 427902
      424903 422899 417891 409877 407873 405875 396881 392884
      390888 387902 385906 382911 377917 367915 362914 358911
      352907 348908 345909 337913 328916 319915 315911 313907
      308899 307888 306883 303882 298884 296889 295903 294909
      295912 296916 299925 301931 303934 317945 323950 324952
      323954 322957 316963 309967 302972 300975 295976 292977
      287976 279972 271968 266966 261967 248983 241986 237989
      235991 241996 245998 248002 243008 240011 241013 245022
      246026 249030 252037 258043 267054 274059 278059 281061
      286063 295067 302068 308066 315063 322058 336047 349038
      359036 363035 368039 375033 380027 383026 385029 386032
      391034 395035 393039 386048 384053 384059 385063 384067
      382069 378069 376071 375080 380085 385088 387091 392099
      395103 391107 384110 378114 371115 361118 352119 350121
      355124 360127 368133 372138 375143 377146 381144 382136
      382131 384129 389121 395114 403111 407110 409105 408099
      404097 400094 398092 398089 400084 402078 407077 410076
      413075 415071 416064 416059 417049 420041 425034 429029
      432028 435029 439032 441038 440040 441043 445041 445031
      447030 450031 452034 455045 456049 454051 451053 446060
      440059 437061 434066 434069 435071 443076 446084 448087
      445091 442093 438091 435088 432087 428084 425085 427090
      431093 439098 446101 451105 453108 456111 463108 466107
      467110 469115 474124 483140 488140 492142 500144 504143
      508144 516146 528157 532160 535160 543160
 0.01 543160 544158 545158 546156 546155 548153 548150 549148
      550146 550145 551143 551140 552138
 0.01 383197 379193 375189 371185 364183 361182 355182 353184
      355186 361188 366191 370195 377197 383197
 0.01 393968 394954 394950 392948 389950 384956 380961 377963
      375965 370967 362970 356976 357982 360984 365985 368985
      375980 382975 389970 393968
 0.25 525738 523727 522719 519703 514686 509673 503659 499654
      494655 492656 491660 484662 480667 479673 483681 487684
      490684 491686 491690 490693 490696 491701 493707 493723
      493732 494742 495752 497760 499769 500779 501789 503793
      507800 511799 515794 517787 518778 518770 523766 524760
      525738
 0.25 524110 525104 524098 522087 520077 519067 517051 512032
      506016 500999 497993 493987 488983 484977 479958 477950
      476939 474930 471921 465910 460903 456901 453901 448905
      445913 440926 437931 431936 421950 417954 412961 409967
      402969 392975 386979 380986 376992 374999 373008 374010
      378011 384011 390015 395020 399021 402019 412010 426987
      434984 436985 436989 434993 434996 437999 444002 450004
      455008 460013 463018 468052 474065 478070 482076 486083
      492089 502100 506106 510112 513117 515124 517125 519122
      521117 524110
 0.25 528846 528836 526826 523826 519832 516837 514844 514853
      516861 519868 522872 524870 525868 527860 527849 528846
 0.25 459652 459649 458648 457647 455646 455645 454645 452645
      450647 449649 449650 448652 447653 446655 446656 445658
      447659 449658 450657 451657 452656 453655 455654 457653
      458652 459652
 0.25 442672 441663 439662 436663 430670 417682 403697 395703
      388707 378714 370718 359722 349724 338727 328733 327737
      327742 332750 335754 338758 340764 338767 333769 330771
      328775 327778 328781 329785 327791 327798 330802 332805
      336806 345804 355798 360791 365784 372777 380771 387765
      399751 412737 422722 428711 432701 439685 441677 442672
 0.25 363943 364938 363934 361929 357924 352922 344923 341926
      338932 338937 339940 342945 346949 352951 357949 361945
      363943
 0.25 353007 350000 345998 340000 338002 335001 335998 332996
      332992 324989 317990 314991 313989 312981 309977 303977
      298979 293982 290987 288989 285989 279988 267988 264990
      264994 265000 265006 267011 269019 272023 281029 293034
      299034 303032 308028 314026 319026 323025 325018 327016
      330015 341017 346017 351014 353007
 0.25 270816 270814 267812 265810 263809 261807 259805 256804
      252805 252808 254810 255812 257813 259815 261817 263819
      266820 268818 270816
 0.50 512728 511715 509705 507695 505690 503688 499695 498705
      499714 500724 501736 504743 507746 509745 512736 512728
 0.50 513066 514056 514051 513045 510034 502013 497003 493998
      489997 485000 482999 479996 476992 477987 475979 473972
      472964 471960 467957 468949 467940 465935 462928 458918
      455912 452910 448920 446925 443930 436938 430947 425954
      419964 415975 425977 435975 447972 451974 454979 454987
      450991 448995 450000 460008 466015 473022 479027 483024
      485030 487033 486036 482034 479032 477033 480038 482040
      480043 479046 480050 483052 489051 493056 496064 498070
      501072 504072 510070 513066
 0.50 424703 423699 420694 417692 414694 409699 402703 396709
      389713 376721 367725 360727 351730 343733 340734 340738
      342742 343746 344751 347753 352758 353764 352769 350772
      346774 341774 339773 337775 337782 336787 331792 331798
      334801 338801 345796 351795 356790 360785 383764 394752
      404743 410736 415730 418723 421716 423708 424703
 0.50 405003 406995 403991 397991 396987 397982 395979 392980
      388981 383988 378997 376002 377008 381008 384006 388007
      390011 395018 399015 401012 405003
 0.50 354941 355938 354936 354934 353934 352933 351932 350931
      348931 346932 345932 343934 344936 344939 345939 346940
      347941 348941 350942 352942 354941 354941
 0.50 322005 323003 323000 319999 313002 310994 309988 309982
      307980 299980 294983 292991 289993 284993 279995 275000
      274007 274015 277022 283024 290026 297025 303021 307017
      310016 314016 316014 316011 316008 320008 322005
 1.00 508040 506032 504026 501020 498014 495009 490006 487012
      488020 491027 494031 499034 504037 508040
 1.00 474009 474001 472996 470992 468989 464987 460989 457993
      459998 462001 465003 468006 471010 474009
 1.00 464981 465979 465976 465974 464971 462970 460971 459974
      459976 459979 460981 462983 464983 464981
 1.00 455940 455932 454927 451926 449928 447931 442938 435945
      431952 428956 426961 426966 430968 433969 436967 442960
      446952 452946 455940
 1.00 393997 392997 391995 391994 389993 388993 388990 387990
      385992 385993 385995 384997 383997 383999 383000 385000
      386999 387999 389999 390998 392998 393997
 1.00 381754 379750 374751 371752 366754 363758 364764 363769
      363772 366772 371770 374768 377764 379759 380756 381754
 1.00 353782 353780 352779 350779 348780 347782 346783 345784
      345785 344788 346789 348789 349788 351786 352784 352782
      353782
 1.00 338795 339793 337792 336793 335794 335795 335797 336798
      337797 338795
 1.00 307007 307002 306997 304994 303987 303983 297983 295986
      295991 293996 293001 295004 298008 302010 306009 307007
 1.50 498026 498023 498022 497021 497018 496016 495013 493010
      491010 490013 490015 490018 490020 491022 491023 493025
      494027 496028 498027 498026
 1.50 449942 449935 447937 444940 442943 439947 437950 435955
      433959 433962 435962 437959 439954 442951 445947 447945
      449942
 1.50 374765 372765 370765 370766 372766 374765
 1.50 302002 302000 302998 301996 300994 299995 298996 297998
      297000 298002 299002 300003 302002

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...VALID 01Z MON MAY 30 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S MQI 15 NE SUT 30 ENE CHS 20 WSW NBC 35 W OGB 20 NNE MTV
20 NE W99 35 N UNV 30 E BUF 15 ENE UCA 25 SE MSS 10 S CMRY
10 SW MVL VSF 10 SSW DXR 15 E CGE 15 E LFI 15 S MQI.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
HHF 15 SSW OUN 20 NNW GVT 15 ENE AUS 35 SE COT 45 NW LRD
25 S DRT 45 W E29 40 ESE LBB 20 NNE CVN 15 WSW DUX HHF.


0100 UTC UPDATE

A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD (12Z MON) FROM EASTERN SC NNE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WAS TO
COVER THE EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE FAR
REMOVED FROM TD BONNIE`S CIRCULATION...AN ELONGATED WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE (PWS OF AT LEAST
1.50") HAVE EXPANDED WELL N-NE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...ENRICHING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HAS ORIGINS FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS NOTED ON THE SATELLITE TPW LOOPS
ALONG WITH THE 500-300 MB LAYER PW. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG) IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL RATES THAT WILL APPROACH OR IN
SOME AREAS EXCEED 1-3 HOURLY FFG.

CLOSER TO BONNIE`S CIRCULATION...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
AREA THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION (COLDER CLOUD TOPS) IS FAIRLY COMPACT AT THIS POINT.

ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION...BOTH THE GLOBAL AND
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE QPF WELL EAST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS TRIGGERING TWO
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING -- ONE
CENTERED ACROSS KS/NE AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SEE
THE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS (MPDS) FOR FURTHER
SHORT-TERM DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE MUCH OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT HRRR AND PARALLEL HRRR RUNS... FAVOR
THE TX PANHANDLE CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THEREFORE...THE ELONGATED SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
N-S ACROSS TX.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...


HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD WITH
THE SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION OF TS BONNIE INTO SC.  BONNIE REMAINS
EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE
SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC
TOWARD THE NE.  THE APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS
THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.
SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+
RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN NJ WHICH ALSO HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE 00Z UKMET AND HWRF.   MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON
THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE
DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS THERE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH PERHAPS ISOLD AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES...COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND HENCE HAVE INDICATED A MDT RISK FOR THAT AREA NWD
INTO SCNTL NC. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.


...SRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS
NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW
WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE
LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT START
OF THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG
AND EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX
DURING AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER
DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES
WITH PLACEMENT ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY HENCE A RATHER BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FROM THE NW/NRN
TX AND WRN OK SWD TOWARD CNTL TX.

SULLIVAN




$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 292103
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/0000 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST SC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION---WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHORT TERM AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2" AND
ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 5-8" RANGE OVER NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST
NC.  TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES...2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---WILL STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND.  THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---BUT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF
MEAN WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY---WITH HEAVY RAINS DEPICTED FROM EASTERN
VA---ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN MD---DE---EASTERN
PA----NJ--SOUTHERN NY STATE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT
PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS PER THE 0000 AND 1200
UTC ECMWF...GFS...NSSL WRF AND HI RES ARW.  THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OFTEN MAXIMIZES.

NORTHERN PLAINS

NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
RECENT NORTHWEST U.S/SOUTHWESTERN CANADA MEAN TROF POSITION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST.  PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE---HOWEVER---INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE HEIGHT FALLS
PUSH EASTWARD.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
IN AN AREA OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO
PORTIONS OF ND...SD AND NEBRASKA.


DAYS 2/3...

...CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

A PARTIAL 1/4 RING OF FIRE WILL CONTINUE FROM NERN SC/ERN NC AND
SERN VA TO COASTAL PARTS OF THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST TUES AND
POTENTIALLY WED. ON TUES... THE REMNANTS OF TD BONNIE WILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS NERN SC INTO ERN NC WITH LIGHT STEERING
COMPONENT... WHILE STRUNG OUT VORTICITY ALONG THE NWRN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
MID-ATL/NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF...
ON THIS FCST SCENARIO. EVEN INTO WED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AND
VORTICITY COULD STILL BE INVOF NERN NC TO THE DELMARVA COAST.
OBVIOUSLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF BOTH FEATURES EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINS. WPC KEPT A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS EACH DAY AND FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

A VIGOROUS AND AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON TUES AND
WED. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THE GREATEST THREAT AND
CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS/NE INTO MN/IA AND WI. THE THREAT
THEN SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO WI/NRN IL INTO NORTH AND WRN MI. WPC
FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DAYS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE COMBINATION OF SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN US TROUGH AND ARRIVAL OF A NRN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUES AND WED. VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND DELIVER HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
DAY. WPC GENERALLY WENT WITH AN AXIS FOR TUES FROM SRN KS THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL OK INTO WEST CENTRAL TX AND THEN ON WED FROM EAST
CENTRAL OK/WRN AR TO MUCH OF CENTRAL TX. A SLIGHT THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN WAS KEPT ALSO FOR EACH DAY.


ORAVEC/MUSHER




24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 494611 511653 516663 518668 519673 523683 524688 526690
      526695 529702 530709 534722 542749 545761 546768 547773
      550803 552816 551831 550861 550893 550910 551925 551934
      552941 555955 556963 556970 555989 554001 545002 540002
      537004 527003 523994 519984 516971 512962 505942 506936
      507931 510921 510917 508913 507909 504905 500901 495899
      493894 489882 486872 489864 493853 498845 497829 493818
      483814 480813 477811 486773 485764 484762 480762 474764
      471768 461788 456795 453804 452809 449814 444820 437826
      428830 420835 411839 403843 396848 384859 377864 372872
      369876 368882 367888 366894 364899 360901 357903 358907
      362914 364922 366925 370934 373945 377969 377976 378979
      381978 385977 388974 391972 393968 396956 400935 399921
      399917 401915 403912 409912 412914 416924 428944 440957
      445963 448969 449975 451977 454977 457976 465974 470973
      472975 480979 486984 492989 496992 498997 502005 505018
      509029 514040 518053 524074 527078 531079 538086 546092
      549096 549101 551112 552124 553130 551137 547149 546156
      543159 542168 540170 540175 537185 535190 531194 525201
      523205 518204 515206 512202 504197 491183 483176 477170
      472163 464166 460168 456167 451166 448163 447151 447145
      446140 446134 437117 430123 427127 424131 420140 411142
      407145 405150 400157 388169 380172 377171 377167 379162
      382156 387148 389144 393140 395135 397133 396131 393127
      388126 385128 382131 374138 371138 368135 364128 361124
      356122
 0.01 356122 349117 345116 342113 337106 335095 333086 335084
      337086 341091 344099 348105 351110 355112 364118 369119
      372118 376116 380112 384106 389097 391093 393090 391086
      390083 388079 385080 385083 386088 384090 379083 376081
      375076 374073 375070 385068 385064 384061 382060 378054
      377050 381049 390050 398055 403057 409058 414059 416062
      415068 413073 413079 411082 404086 400090 400096 404098
      407096 410094 410097 412101 412107 414110 419110 421105
      423102 425098 426095 421088 424086 428087 431090 435090
      442090 445085 445079 441075 436074 434070 435064 438060
      442059 447060 449063 452066 454071 458080 460079 460076
      459069 461062 464060 463057 461055 457054 453052 449045
      445041 440041 436035 434031 432027 431023 426022 422030
      417041 414043 410045 405045 401043 396037 392028 385023
      381024 377028 375031 371031 356034 338037 327037 317039
      310043 302046 293046 288046 284043 272033 258023 252022
      248020 243016 239000 242997 248996 254997 258996 266992
      270989 273984 270980 270976 274972 280967 285961 288960
      292961 299966 301968 306970 312964 318959 321956 324955
      334955 336955 337952 336947 330941 330928 337911 342904
      350903 353903 354900 352895 351881 354872 356862 366847
      375835 385823 388819 389813 382818 368830 362836 361839
      355839 352839 350837 347833 347827 348823 348820 345819
      336822 328818 322815 318807 314805 314801 315793 318789
      318785 323768 323765 319761 313757 305753 299748 298743
      299737 306731 340717 379708 386703 392697 401685 413668
      423652 430643 434638 437632
 0.01 384200 384195 381192 378189 374186 370184 366181 362181
      360185 362188 366191 370194 373197 377199 382200 384200
 0.01 344180 344175 345171 344169 343166 340165 336164 332163
      329163 328166 328168 330168 334168 335170 338172 340175
      341177 341180 344180
 0.01 288818 287813 284809 280806 276805 271803 266801 257798
      251799 246802 244806 247809 254816 261822 269827 274828
      280828 284826 287823 288818
 0.25 548979 549971 547961 544945 543928 542912 542890 543871
      544861 545854 546836 545818 545808 543799 542791 541783
      541776 540767 537750 535743 532736 529729 527721 523704
      519690 517684 513676 508667 501658 492650 483644 479642
      473642 467646 463650 455650 450649 445652 438661 433670
      426682 418691 403706 385722 382725 375728 364731 350734
      337737 323736 319738 315742 322752 331759 338766 338771
      335775 329787 326792 329799 332804 335808 340811 345812
      350811 356808 366802 370799 375797 384793 390789 395785
      403776 412768 420762 428769 434769 437764 442754 448745
      457735 467728 472729 476731 481733 484738 491748 493753
      496760 502790 510819 513828 513839 514858 515878 516888
      517896 520910 523926 526944 527952 528963 529970 531977
      536987 540992 545990 547985 548979
 0.25 536128 536122 533117 529113 524110 516109 511110 507112
      500119 498124 497128 498131 503134 504140 507152 511155
      517157 519153 521144 524141 528138 532136 535131 536128
 0.25 497074 498070 497066 496059 494043 494036 496032 496024
      495017 490005 485995 481990 477988 465985 453985 446985
      441983 437980 434983 432989 431995 432999 438007 443010
      449011 461013 466015 470019 473023 473032 470048 470058
      471064 479072 483075 489076 493076 497074
 0.25 412824 411820 407820 404821 402823 399825 397826 396828
      393830 394835 396836 398834 401833 403831 406829 408828
      410826 412824
 0.25 373012 372004 369998 362997 358996 355994 349983 340973
      337967 332963 327962 321967 320979 313980 306982 294987
      291980 288980 286985 284991 280995 275999 271004 270007
      271011 273017 277022 283025 291025 297025 310021 319021
      325023 329027 333029 337029 359016 361013 366012 370013
      373012
 0.25 269816 268812 267810 264809 262807 260806 257805 255806
      254808 254810 257812 259814 260815 263817 266818 269816
 0.50 543834 542817 541804 539789 536775 534768 533762 530748
      527743 525743 522741 521737 519729 519720 518708 516693
      514686 512681 507673 501667 496661 492659 487658 485659
      483665 483672 486687 485697 486704 488709 493716 495721
      497730 500742 505750 510756 515762 518768 518774 518791
      514791 515796 519799 521805 522821 521835 522850 523865
      523875 524883 526887 529889 531884 532880 539858 542846
      543834
 0.50 482055 482052 483050 482047 482045 482044 480043 480044
      479047 478048 478049 478052 478054 480056 481056 482055
 0.50 477997 476993 474991 465989 457989 448989 443988 440991
      439995 443002 448007 455005 459004 463004 472005 477999
      477997
 0.50 448729 448726 447726 446725 444726 443728 442728 441730
      441731 440733 440735 440738 442738 443736 444735 445734
      446732 447732 448729 448729
 0.50 438700 435697 431696 425697 421699 414704 407710 399716
      393722 388728 379734 369739 360740 345741 336742 331742
      326744 327748 330753 337758 344761 347763 349767 344775
      338782 333789 333794 334798 337803 340807 344808 349807
      357802 362796 367789 372786 378786 387782 393777 408765
      414758 420752 423749 427747 431750 434749 437744 435742
      431735 433730 435725 437721 437714 436706 438700
 0.50 351013 352010 351007 347005 342005 338004 334004 331008
      331012 332016 334020 339020 343018 347016 351014 351013
 0.50 340989 338981 334976 329980 325986 321990 318991 314990
      311988 307988 299989 293991 288994 280003 278008 280011
      287014 293014 300014 308014 314012 318008 322001 326997
      331993 337992 340989
 0.50 332971 332969 330968 328968 328969 328971 330973 332972
      332971
 1.00 504699 503697 502694 501693 501695 501697 502700 504699
      504699
 1.00 421718 420716 416716 410718 400725 384741 374747 370752
      370756 372759 364766 362771 357775 345780 342784 340790
      343795 347798 351796 355790 359779 363776 370774 378766
      380766 381770 384775 394769 404762 411754 415748 417743
      415736 417731 421718
 1.00 310005 311003 310000 309999 308999 306999 304000 304001
      303002 303004 304005 306005 307006 309005 310005
 1.50 405755 404752 403752 401752 399752 398754 396755 395756
      395758 394759 394761 395762 397762 399761 400761 401760
      402759 403757 404757 405755
 1.50 350787 349785 347785 345785 345787 346789 348790 348789
      349788 350787

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 489613 498633 503642 507652 518676 519682 521689 525704
      527718 528724 529732 529758 527764 527770 525781 523794
      524810 524815 522821 522829 520834 514840 510835 507834
      507830 506821 506811 507805 508797 508793 506790 505782
      503777 487689 485685 482677 481665 481659 481654 481646
      479639 476634 475633 472633 468637 465642 458650 451659
      439675 436678 434683 431692 425710 418725 416729 416737
      423741 416743 412742 409746 414755 415762 410763 406762
      404760 402762 401765 402770 400774 393779 391780 391784
      390789 390794 388799 384806 371819 367821 366825 366829
      365834 363837 357838 354842 352846 343849 340852 337851
      334847 330844 330830 327828 328822 335815 334813 331812
      327813 325816 322817 320812 319810 316809 306810 296810
      299813 304814 308815 313813 317813 317817 314824 318830
      315833 312837 315840 316843 310844 308849 313850 315856
      319858 323862 327864 328866 328870 326872 322872 315870
      311872 311878 311889 310894 310900 308904 310909 312915
      313917 317917 324922 328923 331919 333914 333908 341909
      349905 355905 360903 363902 365900 365896 367895 373895
      376893 381897 385899 395890 397885 397880 396877 395874
      388872 389867 395860 394850 398845 406848 416855 423858
      426861 427864 429866 433867 438867 450866 455864 459860
      465850 467849 470850 473852 480857 488871 492881 497888
      508905 510908 512914 515928 516940 516956 513986 513995
      514003 521010 524014 527017 530024 533026 534034 536046
      535051 533056 531060 532066 537077 540086 544095 542102
      542108 540113 537116 530121 513127 503122 494120 490120
      487117 481113 476113 475115 475118 480127 492137 496140
      498144 498146 498149 493146 481133
 0.01 481133 479130 476129 468125 466122 467117 465113 462111
      461107 457103 453107 451106 450099 445097 439094 431094
      426089 429089 433088 436086 440086 442084 443080 442079
      440081 437081 436079 436076 434073 433072 433069 431066
      430063 428061 425060 421062 420065 414064 410070 406070
      404067 402069 404074 399079 396080 396085 396092 395106
      393109 394113 391115 390120 389124 387126 380129 378131
      376137 382140 377144 376149 374151 371154 371158 368159
      364161 359159 360152 362147 365144 366142 364139 361137
      367135 372129 375122 377116 378111 378106 376099 374089
      370083 370075 358069 353067 348066 341063 332058 327059
      325058 310056 295050 282045 275041 268038 262035 256030
      246021 243018 243014 243002 243996 245992 248984 260979
      262976 266976 273973 283964 290951 296945 299945 302947
      305952 301956 296956 292958 291962 294966 313970 319969
      326969 330967 333965 337964 337961 334960 332957 331950
      328948 325947 321952 319954 316953 316944 306935 301931
      299926 298921 294913 292902 289896 289889 292881 297881
      304868 304862 302859 298851 299844 300840 298836 295832
      289828 276829 272831 268830 260826 255822 251818 244815
      243812 244809 248802 254802 262801 268800 283795 291794
      298790 303784 305780 307776 309771 312769 318763 323759
      324756 325752 323748 319749 309750 302749 298745 298741
      299734 302729 310716 316714 320711 323710 331706 336705
      340706 345705 350706 355705 360703 367700 373695 377691
      380685 382677 386671 395658 398653 401650 404648 409643
      413639
 0.01 467087 464086 462087 461091 459094 457094 457091 454089
      453093 453095 455098 458100 462100 464099 464094 465090
      467087
 0.01 450088 450085 449084 447085 447087 449090 450088
 0.01 443029 442021 440019 442017 444014 444009 442002 438999
      435999 433002 431009 430013 429016 429021 430023 430028
      433030 435032 438032 442031 443029
 0.01 418050 420043 420036 419031 414030 410032 407035 403037
      401042 405044 410047 413048 416051 418050
 0.01 410756 410754 408752 407754 408756 409758 410756
 0.01 411103 411101 410098 410096 408093 406095 405098 405100
      406102 406103 407105 409105 411103 411103
 0.01 395203 394199 389198 383193 378189 371184 365181 357182
      355184 357186 364189 370193 376198 382202 386204 390204
      395203
 0.01 401035 400034 398033 398032 397030 396028 396027 395026
      393026 391027 391029 393032 394034 395034 396036 396037
      398038 399037 400037 401035
 0.01 388098 387095 385094 383093 383092 383090 384088 383085
      382084 380085 379087 380090 380092 380094 380096 381099
      383099 384101 386101 388100 388098 388098
 0.01 387079 387077 387076 385075 384076 385078 385079 386080
      387079
 0.01 366124 366121 363121 359120 356118 352117 350119 351121
      351126 349128 347134 346138 348139 352137 356133 360132
      361130 361123 366124
 0.01 366092 366090 364090 362087 361087 359089 360089 362092
      364092 366092 366092
 0.01 356073 353073 349075 346076 344074 340071 338071 337075
      332077 330081 331086 334090 334097 336102 341104 346110
      346106 345103 344098 344095 342089 346084 352084 354082
      351081 352077 356073
 0.01 344178 344175 344173 343171 343169 343168 341167 339167
      337167 337168 339170 341171 341173 341175 341177 343178
      344178
 0.01 329055 329053 330051 330049 330047 330044 331042 329041
      328042 326043 324044 324046 324048 322050 323052 325054
      327055 329055 329055
 0.01 308901 307899 307897 306895 304895 304893 302891 300893
      298895 299897 299899 299901 300903 302901 304901 306903
      308901
 0.01 292085 293080 291077 287072 280067 273065 269060 267054
      264045 260041 257039 252038 247037 243038 240039 238041
      236045 236048 237052 240058 244062 247064 251065 263074
      269077 273083 277088 286089 292085
 0.25 517101 518095 518089 518082 518072 518062 514044 509024
      507005 506998 506987 507966 506958 504949 503940 503928
      501919 497915 490915 487917 484917 482914 481910 482907
      483902 482896 482886 481881 480879 475875 470872 466871
      463873 457876 445876 439878 433881 427880 422883 419890
      414895 410902 408906 407911 405918 404925 405928 405933
      403940 398939 393936 389931 387924 384917 382915 380916
      376921 370924 363927 357927 351927 347927 343925 339924
      338927 334932 328934 332939 339947 343951 348956 352959
      349965 345970 339971 333974 329975 327979 322985 320986
      317984 310981 305978 302973 299972 295972 290974 284975
      281977 279980 275983 260986 262990 261995 258996 263027
      269027 274027 285026 292025 294023 296020 296021 298023
      298028 296031 293031 298042 301037 306032 312028 315030
      322034 334029 344030 350031 354029 355026 358025 363023
      366023 369025 373024 377025 382022 387018 392013 393008
      394004 394000 396998 398995 400991 401988 403989 405994
      406012 407021 411023 413020 415014 413006 414000 417001
      420003 426005 427003 427999 426995 426990 427987 430984
      434984 438985 442985 444989 447995 450998 454999 458998
      463002 468006 467011 467020 467026 468028 466036 463043
      460045 457045 455047 454051 456059 458069 469079 473083
      476088 481094 486095 491094 495096 498103 503107 508109
      513107 517101
 0.25 475109 476106 475105 474106 474108 474109 475109
 0.25 448971 448969 448966 447964 445961 443962 443964 443966
      443969 444971 445972 447973 448971
 0.25 425674 424669 418669 411676 402675 398677 395679 390686
      384695 379701 373708 367714 360722 358725 354727 344728
      339729 336732 338739 341743 343746 341748 335756 323769
      317776 312783 311788 314792 323797 326799 328803 334804
      337799 339797 343800 346799 346796 346791 351791 355791
      358788 370773 383763 392749 405736 409730 414720 417711
      420702 422685 425674
 0.25 407056 406053 402052 399051 395050 392050 391050 389052
      390056 391058 395058 398057 400057 404057 407056
 0.25 382056 379051 376051 370049 366050 361052 357051 355055
      359057 363055 368056 372055 376055 381058 382056
 0.25 360823 360822 358822 357823 358824 360823 360823
 0.25 274822 274820 273818 274818 275816 275813 273812 271812
      269813 268814 266816 267819 267821 268822 269822 270823
      272823 274822 274822
 0.25 272808 271807 269807 268808 269809 271809 272808
 0.50 512071 513060 513051 510035 504016 503996 499922 493924
      490926 489931 487938 486941 482940 467942 464934 465928
      469915 473910 475903 479888 475884 471883 468885 464889
      458888 453884 448882 445881 441882 439885 438888 441897
      442901 441906 436906 432905 431902 427899 423901 417905
      414909 413928 412936 410944 405949 402953 397956 393952
      391949 388946 379945 375943 369941 364945 361949 359956
      355961 352966 349974 342974 339976 339979 340981 339985
      337987 335986 332984 329984 324989 320996 317997 316995
      313992 312994 310992 316990 312987 307982 300981 299979
      297978 292982 283990 276990 270992 269995 271997 277002
      284004 288004 292004 297000 294995 297989 300988 303990
      304994 303000 302004 303008 304015 304019 302021 299028
      301032 304032 307029 306026 308025 310022 313022 316024
      319026 325027 329025 328023 329019 330017 334014 337013
      340015 345014 348015 346019 344021 344025 346027 349027
      353022 357017 361012 369008 372010 374014 375017 379017
      386015 386009 388002 391999 391990 388984 392979 398979
      402978 403982 407987 410988 414988 419984 428977 441981
      447986 451993 456994 458993 458990 454985 455981 456981
      462983 465989 465994 465999 467002 469001 471998 474999
      475004 478019 478027 476034 485046 487051 492055 496059
      498065 496086 495089 498092 502097 506091 509084 512071
 0.50 488075 487073 487072 486070 485070 484069 482069 481069
      480069 479070 478072 478074 479075 480077 481077 482077
      483078 485079 486078 487077 488075
 0.50 468056 469053 468052 466051 466050 465050 464050 463051
      463052 463055 464057 464058 466058 467058 468056 468056
 0.50 459954 460950 459946 457945 455948 445950 438945 436938
      431938 426947 429953 431957 434963 437966 440972 443975
      448976 451974 454969 455962 455953 459955 459954
 0.50 417703 417698 415697 411698 410697 409693 406689 403686
      399686 396688 388695 375710 368718 362725 354733 350736
      349739 351741 355744 361745 368743 372747 373753 368761
      367766 369767 375764 379761 380757 384753 388748 389744
      393740 400732 405729 408726 413716 416705 417703
 0.50 413015 413013 413012 412010 411008 410008 410007 409007
      408010 408012 408014 409017 411018 412017 413016 413015
 0.50 385993 385992 383991 383992 383995 385993 385993
 0.50 367768 365765 361762 361756 361751 357749 351751 348751
      343752 339757 335763 331768 334778 331781 328780 326779
      323780 319782 319787 324790 328798 331800 334800 334794
      338788 341787 344788 351786 355784 358782 363777 367768
 0.50 351952 351949 351947 351945 351943 351941 351938 351936
      350936 349936 348937 346938 346939 345940 344941 345943
      345945 346947 347949 348951 349952 350953 351952
 0.50 330787 330785 329784 328785 327787 326788 324790 326792
      328792 329790 329789 330787
 0.50 289020 287018 285018 284018 284020 285021 287021 289021
      289020
 0.50 278020 278019 277018 276016 274016 272017 271017 270018
      269019 270020 272021 272022 274022 275022 276021 278020
      278020
 1.00 508050 507041 506035 505034 504037 504031 503019 499000
      497990 496986 493985 487987 485989 483989 482987 480990
      481993 480997 478001 478007 481013 483016 485022 485032
      486036 489040 494044 499051 502050 504047 508050
 1.00 497934 497933 496934 495934 496934 497936 497934
 1.00 487982 487980 486979 484979 484981 484982 485983 487982
 1.00 486957 484954 481956 477957 474961 472962 469962 466965
      465970 471971 475969 476964 481964 484961 486957
 1.00 454925 455923 454920 453920 452918 450918 448919 447920
      447921 445922 444923 445925 445928 447929 448930 448931
      450931 451930 452929 453928 454927 454925
 1.00 430968 430964 429961 428959 426955 424952 423949 422947
      419946 418949 418954 419957 421961 422964 424966 426967
      428968 430968
 1.00 427935 426933 424931 423931 421932 420933 419933 418935
      417936 417938 417940 419942 421942 423941 423940 424939
      425938 426936 427935
 1.00 412975 412973 410971 410970 409970 407969 406970 405973
      405975 407977 408978 409977 410976 412975
 1.00 408956 408954 407954 405956 404959 405960 406959 407958
      408956
 1.00 386742 386740 385738 384740 384741 384743 383745 384746
      385745 386742 386742
 1.00 397968 397965 396965 395965 394965 394968 394969 396970
      397968
 1.00 383749 384747 383745 382748 381748 379749 378750 377751
      376752 376753 376754 378754 380753 382753 383752 383751
      383749
 1.00 379967 377967 376967 376970 375972 375974 375975 377976
      377974 378972 378970 379968 379967
 1.00 361774 362771 361769 360769 358770 357772 357773 356775
      355776 355777 357777 359776 361775 361774
 1.00 368981 368980 367978 366978 365978 364980 364981 363983
      363985 364987 366987 367985 367983 368982 368981
 1.00 356763 356760 355757 351756 346756 344757 346761 344766
      342768 340773 341779 345776 348773 351770 354767 356763
 1.00 364994 364991 362991 358989 355989 352993 349997 348002
      351006 353009 352012 356011 358007 360000 360998 362996
      364994
 1.00 347002 346000 346998 346996 345995 344995 342996 341997
      340999 339999 338000 337002 338004 340005 342005 344004
      345004 346003 347002
 1.00 327010 328008 327006 327005 326003 324001 322001 320002
      320003 320005 321007 322009 324011 325011 327010 327010
 1.00 320020 320018 320017 318018 318019 319020 320020 320020
 1.00 315009 316007 315005 315004 313003 311002 310002 310005
      311006 312007 313009 314009 315009 315009
 1.50 499041 498031 498018 497008 495000 495993 493992 490995
      487997 485005 484011 485015 487019 487025 487032 489034
      494040 496043 499041
 1.50 423959 423956 423959 423959
 2.00 497039 497038 496036 496035 494033 493033 493036 494037
      495038 495039 497039 497039
 2.00 493018 494015 494013 494010 494008 494005 493004 493003
      492000 491000 490000 489000 488001 488002 488003 489005
      489007 488008 487010 487012 488015 488016 489018 490018
      491019 493019 493018

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 540872 539864 538858 537853 536851 535845 532831 528818
      515812 509809 503809 495814 489819 479823 469825 457825
      448822 442826 434830 426836 421838 416839 407841 404845
      402848 402852 397858 390861 382865 375870 371873 371876
      368877 365876 360877 356880 349881 343882 341885 336887
      331887 328883 324881 321878 320871 321866 324862 330855
      336856 339859 342862 346862 353861 356858 357854 360850
      363849 365847 364840 364835 367832 371829 372825 375820
      380821 381820 381816 383810 390804 392801 397798 401796
      402790 401779 402774 400772 397766 394766 394762 397758
      395751 386746 385741 384735 385730 388726 394723 400718
      405708 409698 412686 413676 416664 416659 415652 415648
      411646 404644 393648 385654 379661 376664 374670 367686
      362701 360713 360720 358723 351730 343736 319764 315772
      312781 309786 307790 300796 283802 280805 277805 273803
      276801 274797 270797 268800 263801 258801 253800 250801
      248803 248808 254814 259826 263828 268829 278829 286829
      289831 293835 295839 296845 294851 296856 298865 299878
      298884 298890 301893 304893 306897 310897 311899 312902
      309907 305904 300903 305910 308914 309919 314916 317918
      319924 314928 313932 311937 308941 299941 294947 290949
      286953 278968 270970 264973 260975 254975 251979 249984
      234993 234005 235011 239014 258020 265023 270026 272027
      273030 277038 285043 292048 298053 303053 305052 307055
      311057 324069 330069 333070 334072 331075 327076 326079
      329080 332082 336084 336089 333093 329098 327100 328103
      333112 338120 341124 342129 344130 343133 338132 338136
      342138 349141 352133 349128 357120 360125 364124 366124
      367122 365119 354117 352114 348112 343102 342100 345099
      349097 351095 356094 363090
 0.01 363090 361085 362084 366081 368082 369084 374090 375093
      374096 378098 378096 379089 382087 384091 386089 385079
      387077 390080 393080 396076 401072 403070 402067 400063
      402061 409059 412056 413052 408045 406042 403038 402034
      399035 390034 385031 382032 379031 373032 371030 373026
      378019 383013 385002 387994 388988 389984 390973 392969
      395967 398968 402966 406959 411952 413949 418947 422941
      427937 434934 440929 447925 451923 454925 452931 450935
      455940 457942 455944 452946 450954 452957 455957 457962
      458965 458968 453975 453978 452981 447980 445982 446987
      454990 452000 449005 451008 456008 460010 459013 457015
      454015 451015 447017 447024 448020 453021 457024 455034
      458040 461042 463045 467048 468046 471043 473039 478032
      482030 487031 490029 493026 503016 508011 511008 512004
      515993 517987 520984 524977 528968 532961 533954 532926
      532918 533913 535899 537891 537885 540872
 0.01 491094 491086 488085 485080 483077 481082 478083 473083
      471083 473089 476089 480087 485086 487091 489094 491094
 0.01 457062 458056 454054 449051 446048 445043 445038 441040
      440040 443043 446048 447053 451056 452059 454064 457062
      457062
 0.01 409108 410101 408096 407091 406093 406100 405103 404107
      400108 396108 396112 400113 403109 407110 409108
 0.01 390201 388197 385193 378189 373187 370184 361181 357182
      353183 348182 346182 345185 349186 354186 358186 364187
      368189 370193 377199 385203 390201
 0.01 396777 396775 395773 393775 392778 393780 395780 396777
 0.01 360799 359794 359791 356790 353789 349790 346790 344788
      340784 341779 342777 341774 337778 336782 338786 339795
      345795 348799 354800 360799
 0.01 357848 357846 356845 354845 353846 352847 351848 350848
      349851 349853 351855 353854 354852 356850 357848
 0.01 342175 342172 341170 339167 336166 332166 329165 325165
      328167 332167 335169 337170 340172 340175 342175
 0.01 347118 345117 343116 342115 341115 341118 341119 342120
      343121 345120 347118
 0.01 340106 339105 337104 336106 337108 339108 340106
 0.01 331850 329848 327849 325851 327853 329852 331850
 0.01 307810 306809 304808 302807 300806 298805 296805 295807
      297808 297809 298809 300809 301810 302811 304811 306811
      307810
 0.01 306865 304863 302863 301865 301867 303869 304867 306865
 0.25 527941 527935 527928 526923 524919 520912 516905 512898
      510890 508883 509877 513870 514866 513862 509843 513835
      515830 514823 512819 509818 501818 495822 490826 483831
      476834 463838 457836 454837 452840 450844 448846 442851
      433854 425857 418859 414864 405875 393884 388890 384892
      381890 377893 375901 366910 360914 355911 352908 349907
      344913 341920 340925 341928 338934 333939 327943 323950
      316949 310953 307958 303962 299963 297960 297957 293957
      290964 285968 280973 273976 265978 258982 256984 255990
      250994 248997 249002 255005 259006 262004 267009 273013
      276018 280023 286026 290030 292034 293036 300033 304034
      305037 308040 311041 317047 323050 325053 321054 320057
      323060 331059 335058 334055 331051 334051 339049 343053
      350054 353060 361058 368055 373056 376059 379062 379065
      387064 393062 398057 399055 398051 397046 394044 386041
      381040 371040 366039 362041 360032 359031 356033 353034
      351032 354026 360022 365022 367020 370012 372006 372000
      376992 376985 375980 376974 376968 377964 379960 381958
      388953 404934 412932 415934 418937 424933 430927 431921
      429918 427912 431910 435911 436914 441915 448912 454908
      459906 462908 465915 469912 473906 478902 478906 475914
      474918 474922 478942 479949 480953 481961 484965 487967
      491969 492973 494977 494982 491991 489000 487005 483001
      481002 478005 478007 481009 485008 487006 490007 495005
      500000 504994 506986 507981 509976 514970 517962 520951
      525947 527941
 0.25 410669 409664 407662 402660 397661 394664 389667 382678
      378684 375692 368719 367722 365726 359729 350738 342747
      338753 337757 339761 346762 347767 350773 354779 361780
      366777 372773 376768 379762 380758 378754 375748 375744
      377741 377731 379726 382720 384712 386697 389690 393685
      404678 408674 410669
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 379071 378071 376072 375073 375075
      376077 377078 377079 378078 379076 380076
 0.25 363820 363815 361814 356813 352814 345818 337815 337820
      340823 342830 344833 344836 344841 347844 351842 354840
      357834 360827 363820
 0.25 334796 334791 333791 331794 330796 328795 326797 325801
      325803 325807 326810 330810 331807 331805 331800 332797
      334796
 0.25 311828 311820 310816 308815 303817 299813 294811 291810
      288812 289816 288820 294823 300825 302830 304832 308832
      311828
 0.25 260809 261807 260806 258806 256805 254804 253806 253808
      254809 255810 256811 258810 260809 260809
 0.50 522939 522930 520923 514916 511912 507911 497907 489914
      484922 483926 484929 486934 488940 490947 493951 497954
      507956 511954 514953 515949 522941 522939
 0.50 504865 505860 504856 504847 502842 498840 493838 488838
      482839 471843 466846 459845 455848 452852 450856 446860
      436862 431864 427864 426862 421862 418865 416869 415874
      388902 384904 378905 371912 365919 361919 357919 353916
      353921 353924 349927 346930 344935 340939 336941 331943
      329949 330954 327958 321963 319966 315967 302967 298966
      296971 294976 291979 286981 283980 277979 271980 267983
      264982 261984 259988 260993 267998 273998 276001 282007
      291006 292012 291014 289014 284014 281015 280019 281022
      287024 297024 301026 306027 309037 316038 321037 325038
      328042 331042 332036 333034 337039 343038 344034 346029
      344024 342020 345017 349015 354014 358012 358007 355004
      355998 357992 359987 363984 367982 368975 370970 373961
      378953 382949 384945 381944 379941 384939 389935 391931
      393925 396921 399917 402913 406905 408903 411904 414906
      419909 422906 424900 428895 433893 437895 439899 441906
      445906 448902 449896 452891 453887 455883 462888 465891
      465895 466898 469899 470898 474893 478891 483890 488890
      495889 498884 501878 504865
 0.50 395055 393050 390045 387043 381044 376044 372044 370043
      369046 370051 374054 377056 380057 383056 386055 391056
      395055
 0.50 375765 373758 371752 371744 372738 370733 364731 361731
      357734 350742 346745 343749 341754 342757 344759 348760
      350763 349767 352772 355776 360777 364775 369772 373769
      375765
 0.50 360823 359820 357818 354819 352821 352824 351827 349830
      348833 347835 350837 353835 355833 356830 357828 359825
      360823
 0.50 352040 351039 350037 349037 349039 349040 351040 352040
 0.50 319029 319028 317027 317026 317024 316023 314022 312022
      310022 309024 310026 312026 314027 316028 317029 319029
      319029
 0.50 298819 297818 296819 295820 296820 298820 298819
 1.00 508931 508929 507928 505926 504926 503926 502928 502929
      502930 503931 504932 505932 507932 508931
 1.00 502931 500930 500929 499927 498929 497931 497932 499933
      501933 502931
 1.00 491879 492868 489861 490856 487854 483851 478852 473856
      470861 467868 468874 471875 474873 477875 479877 479882
      481884 488882 491879
 1.00 446884 444883 442883 441883 440885 440887 441889 442889
      442890 443889 444889 445887 446885 446884
 1.00 440878 440875 438875 437875 436875 437878 439878 440878
 1.00 430876 428876 426876 425876 423876 421874 419873 419874
      419875 421877 423877 425877 426877 428877 430876 430876
 1.00 390050 389047 388047 387046 385047 385048 383047 381047
      379047 378047 376048 376051 377052 378053 379054 381054
      382054 383052 384051 385051 386051 388051 390050
 1.00 366744 365735 361734 358736 353742 348747 347751 347754
      350757 352762 352767 354770 356773 359772 366769 366761
      366753 366744
 1.00 370947 371943 370940 366937 362942 361943 357943 354940
      351936 348936 347938 344943 337945 334947 337948 342947
      344949 344954 345959 341962 336964 330961 326963 323969
      324977 324984 327988 329995 327001 324007 325010 328011
      333010 336006 338004 342004 345006 348008 351007 352000
      353985 357982 359976 364965 368963 368960 366958 368952
      370947
 1.00 341984 341982 342980 342978 341976 339976 339975 339976
      338978 337980 335981 335982 334984 334986 335987 337988
      339987 340986 341985 341984
 1.00 321988 317977 315973 312975 307975 304971 301970 299972
      298979 298983 301983 304983 306989 295992 291992 289993
      289996 293996 300998 302000 301004 302008 305007 306004
      309999 313995 317992 321988
 1.00 312032 310032 310033 312034 312032
 1.00 288999 288997 286997 284997 282996 280997 282999 284000
      286000 288000 288999
 1.00 287987 286987 284985 283984 282985 282986 283987 284988
      286988 287987
 1.50 478862 477861 475861 474862 473863 472864 471865 471868
      472868 474868 475867 476867 477865 477864 478862
 1.50 382051 383049 381048 379048 378049 378051 379052 381052
      382051
 1.50 362742 362739 360737 356741 352746 349751 353757 354759
      354764 355768 356770 361767 362760 360754 361748 362742
 1.50 357958 358953 355950 353948 352943 351940 348941 346944
      347947 349951 352952 353958 348964 343967 345974 348981
      352981 354978 355967 357960 357958
 1.50 350002 350000 350998 350996 350993 350991 350989 350988
      349987 348986 347987 346987 344989 343991 343993 344995
      344997 344998 344000 345002 346002 347004 349004 350002
 1.50 332971 332969 332968 331967 330966 328965 326966 326967
      326969 326971 326973 328975 328976 329975 330975 331973
      332972 332971
 1.50 314988 313987 312987 310988 309990 310991 312990 313988
      314988
 2.00 360765 360763 359762 358763 358764 357765 357768 358768
      360766 360765
 2.00 359750 359747 359745 357744 355744 354746 354747 353748
      353751 354753 356753 357752 358751 359750
 2.00 348998 348995 348993 347993 347995 347998 347999 348998
 2.00 328971 330969 328967 327969 328971 328971

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 291831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...VALID 21Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WNW SNK 20 WNW PVW 20 NNW AMA 20 S GUY 15 S LBL 45 E LBL
25 NE WWR 20 WNW END 10 SSW OUN 15 W PVJ 10 NNW GLE NFW
20 SSE SEP 25 SSE SEP 20 W GRK 15 ESE BMQ 10 SW AUS HYI
20 SE BAZ 35 SE SSF 40 E COT 20 ESE COT 15 SSE MMPG 25 SSW DRT
30 NW DRT 40 WSW E29 55 NW E29 55 S BPG 40 NNW BPG 45 WNW SNK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE GRD 15 ENE JQF 10 WNW INT 15 ENE MWK MWK 15 NW MWK
15 SSE MKJ 15 SSW MKJ 10 E VJI VJI 15 S LNP 15 W LNP 20 NW LNP
30 NNW LNP 40 S HTS 20 SSE 3I2 20 S PKB 15 ESE PKB 35 S HLG
10 E HLG BVI 20 NNE BVI 20 SSE FKL 15 NNW DUJ ELZ 30 E ROC
10 SE GTB 25 W SLK 25 N SLK CMCW 10 NW CMSB CMSB 10 ESE CMGB
25 SSE CWQH 10 NE 1V4 15 SSE LEB 15 WNW BAF 10 N HPN 10 SSW EWR
15 NW MIV CGE 15 SSW MFV NTU 10 W MQI 35 WNW HSE 30 NE MRH MRH
20 ESE NCA 15 NE ILM 10 WSW ILM CRE 30 SW MYR 25 SE CHS 15 E HXD
20 E SVN 15 N LHW 20 SW TBR 25 W TBR 35 NW TBR AGS 15 NE DNL
25 ESE GRD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW CAE 20 W CAE 25 NNW CAE 35 NNW CUB 20 SSE UZA 10 SSW VUJ
10 SE HBI 15 W TTA 10 SSE 45J UDG 20 E SSC 25 SE SSC 40 SE SSC
15 NNE CHS 15 SSW CHS 10 WNW NBC 10 NE JYL 25 WSW CAE.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NY WAS EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS
ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY AND
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERKSHIRES OF MA AND THROUGH THE GREEN
MTS OF VT.  THIS WAS TO COVER THE EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING INTO NEW ENGLAND.  NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE THREAT AREAS AHEAD OF BONNIE.  GREATEST THREAT AT THE
MOMENT WILL BE FOR FLARE UPS NEAR THE SLOW MOVING CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST SC...SUPPORTING 2"+ PER HOUR AMOUNTS.  PLEASE SEE WPC`S
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS #0262 AND #0263 VALID UNTIL
APPROX 0000 UTC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE VICINITY OF BONNIE

ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION...THE 1200 UTC GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
VARIABILITY--LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL SET UP.  SUBSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE VERY BROAD
SLIGHT AREA---WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.


1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS RISK AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF BONNIE WERE
TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SC TO
ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION THAT IS FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE.
PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS #0260 AND
#0261 VALID UNTIL 1843 UTC AND 2030 UTC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED
FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN OK.  STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
WITH DETAILS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MORE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OK.  THERE IS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO FIRE IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW---BUT THE DETAILS OF HOW
CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE WARRANTS KEEPING A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...


HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD WITH
THE SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION OF TS BONNIE INTO SC.  BONNIE REMAINS
EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE
SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC
TOWARD THE NE.  THE APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS
THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.
SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+
RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN NJ WHICH ALSO HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE 00Z UKMET AND HWRF.   MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON
THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE
DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS THERE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH PERHAPS ISOLD AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES...COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND HENCE HAVE INDICATED A MDT RISK FOR THAT AREA NWD
INTO SCNTL NC. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.


...SRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS
NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW
WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE
LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT START
OF THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG
AND EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX
DURING AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER
DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES
WITH PLACEMENT ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY HENCE A RATHER BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FROM THE NW/NRN
TX AND WRN OK SWD TOWARD CNTL TX.

SULLIVAN




$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

..SOUTHEAST U.S. NWD ALONG THE MIDATLC INTO THE NE...
T.S. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EDGE NWWD AND JUST INLAND
ACRS SC BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING MORE NEWD BY MON MORNING AS A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SYSTEM REMAINS EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS
PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC TOWARD THE NE.  THE
APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN
NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE
PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.  BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THIS NORTHERN HEAVY RAIN
AXIS..WHILE THE LOWER RES NAM IS TO THE EAST AND WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN GENL.  MANUAL QPF STAYED CLOSE TO 12Z EC/UKMET BLEND
WITH AXIS..THOUGH WENT TOWARD THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
TROPICAL PWS OVER 2".  SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+ RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN
NJ.  MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE
MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S
CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS
ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.  ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU
NEW ENGLAND...THE INCREASING MSTR FLUX AND MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM UPSTATE NY/VT SWWD INTO WRN PA THOUGH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS ACRS THE MID
ATLC/SE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES...
SCTD SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION AS UPR TROF CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE REGION ON SUN.  MAINLY LIGHT
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING UPR FORCING AND
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET
STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON
SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD
ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP
AID CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AT START OF THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG AND EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX DURING AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACRS PARTS OF THE
REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT
ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY.  AS A RESULT..THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALONG WITH OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS USED TO USED TO
MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHILE MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONTINUITY GIVE THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
AND POTNL MCS DVLPMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS AND ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS.

...SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SEWD FROM SWRN CANADA INTO THE THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A PAC COLD FRONT ACRS THE
REGION WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED WITH GENLY LIGHT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS.

DAYS 2/3...

...CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE EVEN TUESDAY
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  NOT ONLY WILL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE REMNANT LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT A DEEP PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD LEAD TO A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL VALID 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.  PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON BONNIE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND ARRIVAL OF A NEW SRN STREAM
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE SWRN STATES WILL YIELD A BROAD UPPER
DIFLUENT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS. MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE
EMBEDDED VORTS WITHIN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EJECT OUT INTO
MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TRACK... ESPECIALLY TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT...
BUT A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE GENERAL
CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY STRETCHING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE/HILL COUNTRY AND PERHAPS OK. THEN ON TUES... POTENTIALLY
A SIMILAR LOCATION FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE/RED RIVER TO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE. AS A RESULT... WPC HAD A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS EACH DAY.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SHORT WAVE OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WHILE FEATURING A RATHER DYNAMIC CLOSED
LOW. EXPECT A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE TO SURGE THROUGH MT/WY AND AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED QPF LATE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THEN ON TUES... THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT MUCH MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FOR WIDESPREAD QPF AND HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
AREA NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ALONG THE OCCLUSION IS A SPOT
WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
OF STEADY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND WPC PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS HERE.

SULLIVAN/GERHARDT




24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 557955 557933 556909 555900 554888 554874 552863 551849
      550839 549825 547821 547815 545787 544782 542777 538769
      535763 533755 531732 529722 527715 521694 515675 510655
      508650 506646 501639 496631 492625 488623 483622 476625
      472630 467636 464642 455655 453658 452663 451672 451677
      450682 450687 448690 440705 437711 435713 432711 427698
      426695 423696 415698 407700 402704 396709 392711 389713
      383718 379720 375721 368720 360722 325725 296730 291734
      287741 286745 292750 301759 307763 312770 317775 320778
      322781 325784 323786 318791 315796 314802 316809 320814
      323820 329823 342828 347828 349831 351836 350841 350845
      352848 359848 366845 372840 377835 379838 377841 375846
      373853 371860 370864 370868 371878 372883 373885 377880
      381873 384864 391858 394853 401848 406843 409841 414840
      416838 420837 422838 422840 420843 413854 412859 415863
      425856 439850 447849 451848 452854 450862 448867 446871
      440875 433878 427882 425886 425890 425900 427907 431921
      435928 439932 441935 444936 453936 457935 460932 467933
      474937 477947 481952 484959 487966 492970 502975 513982
      512994 511003 511009 512013 516020 525021 527018 530018
      537014 540008 547991 550985 553974 557955
 0.01 534225 537209 538190 538186 537183 535178 529165 526160
      524155 520149 523144 525142 527136 527130 526125 525123
      518121 514118 510118 504116 500118 493125 490126 487125
      484123 482120 488107 490104 490100 491096 489094 488091
      489085 490082 491076 488070 484067 476061 472060 466060
      464065 463073 458088 455093 450096 445098 444091 432092
      428089 426089 426092 428097 427100 425101 421104 419108
      414110 412104 412095 410092 407092 400105 393105 388107
      382115 377119 373125 373127 377127 384128 388125 392122
      398122 402127 406126 411123 415123 417127 418131 417133
      413139 410140 406139 401136 392130 389130 383131 379135
      379139 381140 384141 386143 387148 386152 382156 385157
      387160 386169 390174 396176 401174 405171 408167 410164
      413165 419162 422157 423149 423140 425133 432121 436117
      438113 441106 443101 444104 449117 444123 442130 441134
      442140 445145 449148 450149 451154 451161 452166 451171
      452176 457173 462168 465164 468163 469166 471171 475174
      478173 481174 486178 487191 487199 484201 482201 474206
      470210 465211 455217 450221 449224 451225 456226 460228
      464225 470223 474222 478222 484223 489226 503246 505251
      508256 512263 515260 520258 523252 526247 527242 529240
      534225
 0.01 230011 236015 239018 244020 252023 262029 271032 283036
      288038 295039 304043 321049 343046 349042 357035 362031
      367028 374029 378033 378043 375045 369045 361047 356050
      358053 358056 361056 366054 371053 377054 381057 383063
      382066 378067 373064 369064 370067 373077 379085 385090
      389077 393080 398080 401074 403073 406075 413074 415072
      415067 420058 426050 429045 433042 436045 439045 441042
      443037 443031 440021 435017 433004 432999 432995 433993
      436997 439998 441996 443990 444982 442965 440954 437948
      435945 428940 421933 419930 417925 414911 412905 409903
      405903 404904 401910 400917 399924 399933 398938 398965
      401976 399981 397987 390987 386983 383978 384972 379970
      377965 372956 367950 361945 351942 347940 341941 328958
      325960 321964 320967 317968 312969 309968 306971 301977
      293982 283986 274989 268990 263993 260997 254996 246992
      239989 234989 231990
 0.01 392200 390194 385190 381186 375183 365180 358180 352181
      348183 345189 344196 347201 349198 348192 351188 354187
      358188 365190 370194 380200 387202 392200
 0.01 399793 396792 393792 391794 390797 388800 387802 385805
      382807 385808 389806 390805 392803 394801 396798 398795
      399793
 0.01 364856 364854 363852 363851 363852 362854 361854 360856
      358856 358857 356859 356861 355863 355866 357866 359866
      360865 361865 362863 362861 362858 364856 364856
 0.01 345180 345176 345169 343165 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 340177 341182 343183 345180 345180
 0.01 321084 312077 302068 299063 297061 294060 286060 283061
      279061 271060 268060 266062 262066 261074 269085 278092
      286094 294095 302095 309094 313092 317090 319087 321084
 0.01 308873 308867 307862 306856 304855 303852 302848 302841
      302837 299832 294824 292820 288816 274802 270800 265799
      259800 254802 250802 246804 244809 245817 251823 260828
      265829 270829 274827 280828 285827 290830 293832 297838
      298851 300855 302859 302863 304863 305868 305876 308873
 0.25 542912 542897 542879 541866 539850 537840 533827 530818
      527806 525802 522802 516811 515815 516823 518837 522864
      524876 524883 524889 522901 522909 524915 528923 531925
      536926 539925 541921 542912
 0.25 522192 521186 518183 515179 513176 509172 507172 505173
      505176 506180 509185 512189 515191 520194 522192
 0.25 509698 508685 505675 500668 495660 489653 486650 481647
      478648 475651 472653 470658 462671 461682 460693 457702
      450711 443717 437723 428725 421724 416726 413728 406733
      398739 390744 383747 372749 365751 362751 358750 351747
      343745 334745 328746 325749 323754 326758 332763 336768
      340775 340781 337784 331790 327797 325801 324807 325811
      328815 336819 343820 347820 352818 362805 369799 378794
      385789 391783 397778 403774 409769 414767 418766 417773
      414785 413790 411795 404799 401806 400812 401818 401824
      402826 406825 409821 415813 418803 422795 428787 431781
      434773 443757 446749 450744 454742 459740 462741 470744
      475750 480755 486760 489762 494761 496759 498755 501743
      504731 504719 509698
 0.25 476084 477082 477079 477078 475077 473078 471080 471081
      470082 469083 468085 469088 469090 471093 472092 473091
      474089 474088 476086 476084 476084
 0.25 462893 462891 462888 462886 461885 460883 459882 458883
      457884 456885 456886 455889 454890 454891 455894 455896
      456898 456899 458901 460899 460898 461896 461895 462893
 0.25 375994 375985 372978 370976 367976 364969 362966 360964
      354965 351963 347962 340965 335968 330973 324975 317979
      311983 308983 305985 300991 297998 295006 293010 290011
      282008 279006 275007 271011 270015 271018 278022 285024
      293025 296024 299022 303021 307021 311019 319008 324005
      329011 331017 332021 336022 339021 344021 350025 358025
      360024 363021 367014 371006 375994
 0.25 284003 285001 285999 284998 283997 282996 281995 280994
      279994 277993 275993 273994 271994 270995 270997 270999
      271001 273003 275004 276005 278005 280005 282005 284004
      284003
 0.25 270818 271814 269812 267809 264809 262807 260806 257805
      254805 253808 254812 255814 257815 260817 263818 264819
      268819 270818
 0.50 537896 537883 536869 535859 534854 532849 530847 528851
      528862 528875 529886 530899 530905 532910 534910 536907
      537896
 0.50 492710 492703 490697 487695 482696 479694 475694 473697
      472703 474718 473730 474735 478737 480741 484743 488744
      492744 494741 493733 492718 492710
 0.50 444737 443735 441732 439731 436730 435734 434737 433739
      433744 433749 433752 434754 435754 437751 438748 439745
      441743 442740 444737
 0.50 422742 422737 420731 418728 416729 409735 403740 392749
      385752 378753 377755 379757 382756 382760 379759 362756
      349751 342750 338751 335754 337758 339760 343766 348775
      348783 344788 337792 332796 328799 326803 326809 331815
      337817 343818 348816 357806 361798 364796 368795 372794
      376792 381788 388783 393777 405768 416757 420749 422742
 0.50 369996 371991 370985 364979 359975 351978 348978 346974
      341974 335975 332981 324984 317986 312994 312999 315002
      319001 322997 324997 326999 329008 333015 336017 341017
      344016 348017 352020 356021 361016 365007 369996
 0.50 262813 260812 259811 258811 257811 258813 258814 260814
      262814 262813
 1.00 414746 412741 407743 398751 382766 377767 372767 366768
      362773 352792 349796 347798 343798 340797 336800 332802
      330803 327804 327807 330813 335815 339815 345814 353805
      358797 361792 366788 378786 383783 387779 402763 409755
      412751 414746
 1.00 366994 363993 358993 351989 348989 346987 344984 339983
      335983 332986 330989 331995 333003 340005 349005 351008
      354009 360007 364000 366994
 1.00 357763 356761 355760 355759 353758 353757 351757 349756
      348757 346758 346759 346760 347761 348763 350764 352765
      354766 356765 357763
 1.50 407752 405750 401752 398754 395759 390765 382770 375775
      373778 374783 379782 383780 387773 390770 394768 400761
      406754 407752
 1.50 344809 344807 342807 340806 338806 336806 335807 333807
      332807 331806 329805 328807 328809 329811 330812 332813
      333813 335813 337814 339814 341813 342812 343812 344810
      344809
 2.00 404755 403754 401754 400756 402757 403755 404755
 2.00 402758 400756 398757 397758 397759 395761 397762 399761
      399760 400759 402758
 2.00 384772 382772 382773 380774 379775 379776 379778 379780
      381778 382777 383775 384773 384772
 2.00 334811 333810 332809 331808 330807 329807 329809 330810
      331811 332812 333812 334811

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 493611 501639 506651 510658 513664 515670 518680 521689
      523697 525706 527717 528725 529731 528735 529752 528766
      523798 524808 524816 522825 520834 514840 509834 507832
      506826 506818 506811 507802 508800 508795 504780 502761
      501756 498756 492757 487754 481754 467752 462751 459749
      455750 440762 433764 429767 426767 424766 420767 417769
      411779 415786 412793 408796 404797 401800 396805 383820
      365827 360830 358832 353833 351832 351827 351824 352822
      361814 364809 364806 363803 358803 354805 348807 343809
      330813 323813 319811 309806 298803 290804 289806 292807
      299810 304814 307824 308832 307837 311850 311856 308861
      306863 303863 298859 294849 293840 290835 285829 280827
      270825 260822 251815 249811 249805 253802 260800 269805
      276793 287785 290782 295781 304776 309766 309757 308753
      307750 302740 305729 309725 312723 315722 322717 329715
      354709 364705 370701 375697 379693 383687 389677 395667
      404655 407651 411647 422636
 0.01 553110 554099 554092 553089 550082 545075 539070 533066
      531062 532058 536050 536043 536037 533026 524012 513998
      508990 504979 498965 490952 485945 481937 474922 466907
      455896 449891 446889 441889 432885 420886 416886 414888
      406889 396899 391918 387914 384906 378902 371898 368898
      365899 362898 356898 353899 349901 346905 343907 337909
      331910 324904 314896 311894 307894 300893 291904 294911
      297918 303923 307928 312935 317941 321948 329954 330960
      329963 327964 317968 312970 303970 296972 293973 290976
      288979 284980 275980 269985 262987 257987 254990 251993
      246993 241996 238999 237004 235009 236017 239024 244031
      251034 256039 259045 259050 257053 257057 255059 258067
      263074 266076 268080 268085 270086 274089 278091 292092
      295091 300093 305094 306091 304087 301086 297084 295082
      292079 292075 294072 298074 306074 310075 313073 313070
      312067 311064 308062 303060 307057 312056 316049 314040
      318038 322037 325036 328037 334039 339039 344038 350035
      363025 376017 383018 388023 390026 389029 389034 387038
      385042 381044 378046 373047 369048 368052 374055 377056
      380060 380063 377064 373064 373069 375072 377075 379076
      384077 388080 391082 396080 402076 406074 411075 418076
      421075 425075 430076 432080 431085 428088 426090 427094
      431099 433101 434105 435110 436114 439115 443116 446119
      449121 451123 452126 454134 456140 459142 463144 466142
      469141 474142 484145 488149 492152 497155 503158 514169
      523182 527183 530180 530173 529169 528164 525160 519152
      513147 513144 515143 520144 528146 534144 540135 544125
      549120 553110
 0.01 410110 411103 410098 407096 404098 404100 402105 400108
      398108 389113 380117 377119 373124 373129 377130 381128
      384124 388122 392119 400113 405112 410110 410110
 0.01 381197 381194 380191 377189 375188 372186 370184 367185
      367187 371189 372191 375193 377195 379198 381197
 0.25 485614 484620 482626 479631 475635 467645 463650 459657
      455665 449677 446683 443690 439703 431725 425736 416746
      399760 391767 381777 374784 370788 365790 357792 352794
      342802 336802 331800 323794 319789 319785 319781 324769
      329760 329753 329745 328736 332733 339730 348729 367717
      376710 382704 388702 393701 397704 400704 404702 408698
      413688 421676 433657 440646 445641 451638 455636 457633
      459629 459624
 0.25 533106 534102 533097 532090 524079 521073 518066 517056
      516046 517041 514034 509021 506015 503008 496993 490983
      483972 475959 472953 469947 462937 458933 453930 448927
      440927 434925 429924 426921 422919 418919 416922 415926
      416933 419941 418946 413950 403952 399949 395948 391954
      389959 389964 390968 392970 395971 399972 400976 399984
      394994 391001 392006 393009 395011 399012 405011 412011
      419008 428004 434004 439008 449017 454022 458027 459034
      461041 468052 480079 484083 489083 495081 498085 507096
      508100 509103 514109 518112 521114 525114 533106
 0.25 507714 507703 505694 498678 495673 492661 489656 486657
      485661 484669 481678 479683 480689 482693 485697 482703
      478709 477712 476717 481719 487722 490727 493730 496732
      498733 501732 505726 507720 507714
 0.25 361965 361961 359959 354958 347961 341967 334976 327979
      319980 312980 304981 292988 282996 277001 274002 269002
      263000 257000 255003 256006 260012 265014 266017 264020
      265025 267027 272027 277026 283026 290027 298026 305024
      317021 331016 336014 344013 352011 354009 356005 358000
      359996 358992 353987 348982 350978 353974 359969 361965
 0.25 358943 357941 357939 357938 356936 355934 354932 354930
      353929 352929 351930 350931 350932 349934 350936 351938
      352939 353941 354941 355942 357943 358943
 0.50 501705 500703 499700 499701 497701 497704 496705 496707
      496709 496712 497714 499712 499711 500709 500708 501705
      501705
 0.50 500044 502034 501022 499013 496005 489993 480980 473970
      469964 464959 454950 449946 442943 436941 431937 426932
      424934 424939 425947 423954 417959 414961 412964 411968
      414970 422969 431970 435970 438972 441978 442987 442994
      443000 446006 457012 461018 466026 468031 473036 483046
      493051 496051 498049 500044
 0.50 452654 452652 451649 449649 447649 446651 445654 444654
      444656 443658 443659 443661 444662 446663 448662 449661
      450660 450658 451657 452654 452654
 0.50 428707 426700 421699 415705 410710 405714 399716 391718
      386715 382714 379716 374720 369725 362729 358734 355740
      357748 357753 354753 348754 343758 340761 340764 341766
      345772 346776 342782 339790 338794 340797 363784 375777
      385767 404746 409743 415739 421734 425728 426724 427717
      428707
 0.50 423989 424987 424985 422984 421984 420985 419985 418987
      417988 416989 417990 419991 420991 422990 423989
 0.50 408000 410998 408996 406998 404000 404003 406003 406002
      408001 408000
 0.50 342002 341000 340999 338998 337997 335997 333999 331001
      329002 328003 329005 331005 333005 335005 336004 338004
      340003 342002
 0.50 339989 339986 337985 335985 333985 332986 331986 330988
      329988 330989 331990 331991 333992 335992 337992 338991
      339989 339989
 0.50 322001 322997 321994 321992 317990 315990 312989 308989
      306992 308995 309998 311000 313002 315003 318003 320003
      322001
 0.50 306009 306008 305006 304006 302005 301004 300004 299004
      298004 298006 300008 302009 304010 305010 306009
 1.00 464003 462001 460998 458996 458993 457988 455988 453988
      452991 450995 451998 453001 455003 458004 461003 462003
      464003
 1.00 420726 420722 418721 414723 410727 406730 400731 395731
      390732 387735 381745 379749 378753 380755 382755 387752
      395745 399742 403741 409738 413734 420727 420726
 1.50 416726 414727 414728 416727 416726
 1.50 412732 411730 409732 408733 406733 406734 407735 408736
      409735 410734 411733 412732

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 422636 427639 430641 432650 431655 421675 418679 416684
      413689 412694 411700 412708 411714 408719 402727 394732
      385738 383743 382750 384756 383761 382768 380771 377776
      374779 368781 361782 348796 341797 337795 334792 330792
      324790 318789 314787 311784 308781 307774 308768 310762
      311758 314753 315751 312750 307751 302750 299747 298741
      299734 300729 299723 302719 303714 309705 313702 318700
      328695 338689 343688 347685 352683 355682 359680 365673
      373665 379659 382655 388651 410640
 0.01 526081 525059 524049 523039 518020 517012 516001 515996
      516990 518979 520972 522964 522937 522918 521905 520894
      519883 519879 517874 505844 501836 497829 492827 487823
      476818 473817 470820 463824 458829 455832 452833 444843
      440849 436854 429858 423862 414863 407865 402869 396876
      393881 390889 388891 385892 381893 380895 363898 357900
      350898 338889 335886 332884 328884 320883 314884 309887
      307890 307894 306897 306901 312906 317911 322915 327920
      331926 328932 324937 320942 315946 300951 293953 288956
      278963 259983 251986 248988 247990 243995 243000 241003
      237003 235006 236011 238014 249019 255023 261025 264028
      269028 279029 292033 300034 306032 314032 319037 330044
      333045 334049 339054 341057 346057 353058 359062 366067
      374078 381078 385077 387075 390069 394065 397063 401062
      406063 411059 409053 403048 400040 393029 388024 385022
      384018 385015 388012 393011 395009 403000 413992 424983
      429980 433978 436978 443976 449980 452981 454986 454997
      452006 451012 448016 441028 439038 436045 435052 437057
      437062 440069 443075 447080 449082 453083 459089 463096
      465102 470105 484102 488101 491102 500103 507104 512100
      516097 519096 520091 526081
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 373191 373189 372188 371187 369186 368186 367187 367189
      369191 370192 370193 371192 372192 373191
 0.01 358825 356823 354823 352825 351826 349829 347831 346835
      344838 346840 349840 351837 352835 354833 355830 356828
      358825
 0.01 344173 344171 343170 341168 341167 339167 339168 338170
      339171 341171 342173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 304825 301821 298817 294814 291809 288807 283806 277807
      273809 268807 265804 259804 256805 255808 255811 259814
      263815 267818 270822 276822 288821 293823 296826 301828
      304825
 0.01 304852 303850 302848 301848 300849 299851 300853 302855
      304853 304852
 0.01 292085 293080 291077 287072 273065 269060 267054 264045
      260041 257039 253038 251036 247037 243038 240039 238041
      236045 236048 237051 238054 240058 244062 247064 251065
      263074 268077 273083 277088 286089 292085
 0.25 509993 508979 507967 508953 508939 508925 508909 505896
      501886 494868 485849 482848 477849 472854 465859 456864
      441873 433878 427883 402906 396913 389915 377917 369918
      356928 349934 343940 333954 327961 321965 310976 304983
      295985 286989 284991 285995 292000 300003 309006 315010
      324012 333017 344019 352020 356020 361018 366012 371005
      378001 385997 389994 392991 413963 420957 427952 435952
      443953 448955 451957 457963 463971 464974 465981 466995
      465008 464022 464033 466039 469042 477046 491055 497056
      501053 503050 506038 506029 506021 507005 509993
 0.25 404677 402667 398664 391666 386671 381684 378691 374696
      355713 351719 349725 348733 346741 338749 329759 326765
      326772 330776 336778 344777 348774 351768 353760 354752
      357747 369739 377730 386719 391716 396710 398705 400697
      404677
 0.25 394055 392050 390047 385045 381043 376042 371043 368045
      370050 373053 377055 383056 388056 393055 394055
 0.50 502006 502992 502979 500957 499930 499916 497907 494898
      490891 487889 485889 483892 478893 473888 469881 467878
      464878 454877 449878 446880 440883 435888 431895 427905
      426914 425919 426922 433926 440930 445934 455947 465958
      469965 471974 474020 476024 478027 484032 490037 494037
      497033 500019 502006
 0.50 475877 474877 474875 473874 471874 469875 469876 468878
      469879 471879 473879 474878 475877
 0.50 409931 409929 409927 408926 407925 405925 403925 401925
      400926 398929 397931 396933 396936 396937 398937 400937
      402937 403938 405937 407936 407935 409933 409931
 0.50 390707 391704 390702 388702 383706 378708 372711 368716
      366721 366728 368729 371728 376724 379720 383715 387710
      390707
 0.50 389945 387940 383938 379934 373933 363936 358939 354942
      347950 338956 334959 331963 323971 316977 312982 310988
      310992 311995 314999 320000 324000 326001 337006 347009
      354010 359009 362005 365999 370989 377981 383972 388969
      387964 389953 389945
 0.50 345770 345768 343766 341765 339764 338764 336764 335765
      335767 335769 336771 337771 339772 340773 342772 344771
      345770
 1.00 488012 486010 485010 485012 486014 488012
 1.00 476939 474937 472935 472934 471935 470935 469934 469935
      470937 471938 472939 472940 474939 476940 476939
 1.00 467930 466927 465927 464925 464924 462922 460921 460923
      459925 460927 462929 464927 465928 467930 467930
 1.00 465910 464903 462899 458897 455896 449895 444895 443898
      444901 446905 450908 453910 457913 460914 464912 465910
 1.00 368970 369963 368957 364954 361954 357956 355958 350967
      345974 340980 338991 340994 344996 349997 352997 355996
      359989 364981 367972 368970
 1.00 329977 328976 326977 324977 323979 322979 321982 320984
      321986 323985 324984 324983 325982 326981 327980 328978
      329977

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S DUX 25 NNE BGD 25 NW GAG 25 W AVK 20 SSW END 15 W PVJ
10 NNW GLE NFW 20 SSE SEP 25 SE 7F9 35 WSW 05F 25 NNW SAT
15 ESE HDO 30 NW COT 25 ENE MMPG 20 S DLF 40 WNW DRT 30 ESE 6R6
35 WNW E29 25 SSW BPG 45 NNW BPG 25 SW LBB 35 WNW LBB 20 S DUX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE GRD 20 NNW BUY 10 W JYO 30 SW AVP 20 N MSV 35 SW ALB ALB
20 WNW DDH GFL 20 W GFL 50 WNW GFL 30 SE SLK 10 SSW BTV
15 WNW MVL 10 ENE RUT 20 ENE AQW 10 NW DXR 10 WSW DXR 10 SSW EWR
20 ESE ILG RJD 15 SW CGE 20 NE FYJ 10 S FAF SFQ 10 S ECG
25 SW MQI 25 E MRH 15 SSE MRH 15 ESE NCA OAJ DPL 10 SSW CTZ
20 SW CPC 20 SW MYR 20 E HXD 10 NW JYL 25 ESE GRD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW CAE 20 W CAE 25 NNW CAE 35 NNW CUB 20 SSE UZA 10 SSW VUJ
10 SE HBI 15 W TTA 10 SSE 45J 15 NNE SSC 15 SSE MMT 15 ESE OGB
10 WNW CHS 20 E NBC 10 NE JYL 25 WSW CAE.


...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...


HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD WITH
THE SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION OF TS BONNIE INTO SC.  BONNIE REMAINS
EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE
SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE
TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC
TOWARD THE NE.  THE APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS
THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.
SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+
RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN NJ WHICH ALSO HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE 00Z UKMET AND HWRF.   MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON
THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE
DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS THERE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH PERHAPS ISOLD AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES...COULD LEAD TO A HIGHTENED THREAT OF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND HENCE HAVE INDICATED A MDT RISK FOR THAT AREA NWD
INTO SCNTL NC. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.


...SRN PLAINS...

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS
NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW
WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE
LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP AID CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AT START OF
THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG AND
EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX DURING
AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER
DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES
WITH PLACEMENT ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY HENCE A RATHER BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS HAS BEEN DEPICTED FROM THE NW/NRN
TX AND WRN OK SWD TOWARD CNTL TX.

SULLIVAN




$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290620
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

..SOUTHEAST U.S. NWD ALONG THE MIDATLC INTO THE NE...
T.S. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EDGE NWWD AND JUST INLAND
ACRS SC BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING MORE NEWD BY MON MORNING AS A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SYSTEM REMAINS EMBDD WITHIN A LARGE NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR SHEAR AXIS/TROF TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND WHILE THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL WEAKEN THIS
PD..DEEP TROPICAL MSTR WITHIN THE TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM RAPIDLY NNWWD THRU THE MID ATLC TOWARD THE NE.  THE
APPROACH OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION BY SUN
NIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBDD CONVECTION WILL BE
PSBL WELL TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE.  BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM
HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THIS NORTHERN HEAVY RAIN
AXIS..WHILE THE LOWER RES NAM IS TO THE EAST AND WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN GENL.  MANUAL QPF STAYED CLOSE TO 12Z EC/UKMET BLEND
WITH AXIS..THOUGH WENT TOWARD THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN
TROPICAL PWS OVER 2".  SEVERAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2"+ RAINS FROM CNTL VA NEWD INTO SE PA AND NRN
NJ.  MEANWHILE...HI RES MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH THE
MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAIN CORE ON THE WRN/SWRN SIDE OF BONNIE`S
CIRC AND HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE DEPICTION OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS
ACRS SRN SC INTO CNTL SC WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WRN
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.  ALONG THE COLD FRONT THRU
NEW ENGLAND...THE INCREASING MSTR FLUX AND MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM UPSTATE NY/VT SWWD INTO WRN PA THOUGH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS ACRS THE MID
ATLC/SE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES...
SCTD SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION AS UPR TROF CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE REGION ON SUN.  MAINLY LIGHT
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING UPR FORCING AND
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/JET
STREAK WILL BE EJECTING OUT ACRS NRN MEX/NEW MEXICO INTO TX ON
SUN.  STRENGTHENING SLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOW PWS TO INCREASE NWD
ACRS NRN TX/OK EARLY SUN MRNG WHERE LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL HELP
AID CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AT START OF THE PD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP ALONG AND EAST OF DRY LINE SWD TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA AND NRN MEX DURING AFTN HEATING AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE DEEPER DOWNSTREAM MSTR  WHILE MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACRS PARTS OF THE
REGION...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT
ESPECIALLY LATITUDINAL-LY.  AS A RESULT..THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALONG WITH OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS USED TO USED TO
MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES WHILE MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONTINUITY GIVE THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
AND POTNL MCS DVLPMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS AND ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS.

...SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING SEWD FROM SWRN CANADA INTO THE THE NRN
ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A PAC COLD FRONT ACRS THE
REGION WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTM EXPECTED WITH GENLY LIGHT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 557955 557933 556909 555900 554888 554874 552863 551849
      550839 549825 547821 547815 545787 544782 542777 538769
      535763 533755 531732 529722 527715 521694 515675 510655
      508650 506646 501639 496631 492625 488623 483622 476625
      472630 467636 464642 455655 453658 452663 451672 451677
      450682 450687 448690 440705 437711 435713 432711 427698
      426695 423696 415698 407700 402704 396709 392711 389713
      383718 379720 375721 368720 360722 325725 296730 291734
      287741 286745 292750 301759 307763 312770 317775 320778
      322781 325784 323786 318791 315796 314802 316809 320814
      323820 329823 342828 347828 349831 351836 350841 350845
      352848 359848 366845 372840 377835 379838 377841 375846
      373853 371860 370864 370868 371878 372883 373885 377880
      381873 384864 391858 394853 401848 406843 409841 414840
      416838 420837 422838 422840 420843 413854 412859 415863
      425856 439850 447849 451848 452854 450862 448867 446871
      440875 433878 427882 425886 425890 425900 427907 431921
      435928 439932 441935 444936 453936 457935 460932 467933
      474937 477947 481952 484959 487966 492970 502975 513982
      512994 511003 511009 512013 516020 525021 527018 530018
      537014 540008 547991 550985 553974 557955
 0.01 534225 537209 538190 538186 537183 535178 529165 526160
      524155 520149 523144 525142 527136 527130 526125 525123
      518121 514118 510118 504116 500118 493125 490126 487125
      484123 482120 488107 490104 490100 491096 489094 488091
      489085 490082 491076 488070 484067 476061 472060 466060
      464065 463073 458088 455093 450096 445098 444091 432092
      428089 426089 426092 428097 427100 425101 421104 419108
      414110 412104 412095 410092 407092 400105 393105 388107
      382115 377119 373125 373127 377127 384128 388125 392122
      398122 402127 406126 411123 415123 417127 418131 417133
      413139 410140 406139 401136 392130 389130 383131 379135
      379139 381140 384141 386143 387148 386152 382156 385157
      387160 386169 390174 396176 401174 405171 408167 410164
      413165 419162 422157 423149 423140 425133 432121 436117
      438113 441106 443101 444104 449117 444123 442130 441134
      442140 445145 449148 450149 451154 451161 452166 451171
      452176 457173 462168 465164 468163 469166 471171 475174
      478173 481174 486178 487191 487199 484201 482201 474206
      470210 465211 455217 450221 449224 451225 456226 460228
      464225 470223 474222 478222 484223 489226 503246 505251
      508256 512263 515260 520258 523252 526247 527242 529240
      534225
 0.01 230011 236015 239018 244020 252023 262029 271032 283036
      288038 295039 304043 321049 343046 349042 357035 362031
      367028 374029 378033 378043 375045 369045 361047 356050
      358053 358056 361056 366054 371053 377054 381057 383063
      382066 378067 373064 369064 370067 373077 379085 385090
      389077 393080 398080 401074 403073 406075 413074 415072
      415067 420058 426050 429045 433042 436045 439045 441042
      443037 443031 440021 435017 433004 432999 432995 433993
      436997 439998 441996 443990 444982 442965 440954 437948
      435945 428940 421933 419930 417925 414911 412905 409903
      405903 404904 401910 400917 399924 399933 398938 398965
      401976 399981 397987 390987 386983 383978 384972 379970
      377965 372956 367950 361945 351942 347940 341941 328958
      325960 321964 320967 317968 312969 309968 306971 301977
      293982 283986 274989 268990 263993 260997 254996 246992
      239989 234989 231990
 0.01 392200 390194 385190 381186 375183 365180 358180 352181
      348183 345189 344196 347201 349198 348192 351188 354187
      358188 365190 370194 380200 387202 392200
 0.01 399793 396792 393792 391794 390797 388800 387802 385805
      382807 385808 389806 390805 392803 394801 396798 398795
      399793
 0.01 364856 364854 363852 363851 363852 362854 361854 360856
      358856 358857 356859 356861 355863 355866 357866 359866
      360865 361865 362863 362861 362858 364856 364856
 0.01 345180 345176 345169 343165 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 340177 341182 343183 345180 345180
 0.01 321084 312077 302068 299063 297061 294060 286060 283061
      279061 271060 268060 266062 262066 261074 269085 278092
      286094 294095 302095 309094 313092 317090 319087 321084
 0.01 308873 308867 307862 306856 304855 303852 302848 302841
      302837 299832 294824 292820 288816 274802 270800 265799
      259800 254802 250802 246804 244809 245817 251823 260828
      265829 270829 274827 280828 285827 290830 293832 297838
      298851 300855 302859 302863 304863 305868 305876 308873
 0.25 542912 542897 542879 541866 539850 537840 533827 530818
      527806 525802 522802 516811 515815 516823 518837 522864
      524876 524883 524889 522901 522909 524915 528923 531925
      536926 539925 541921 542912
 0.25 522192 521186 518183 515179 513176 509172 507172 505173
      505176 506180 509185 512189 515191 520194 522192
 0.25 509698 508685 505675 500668 495660 489653 486650 481647
      478648 475651 472653 470658 462671 461682 460693 457702
      450711 443717 437723 428725 421724 416726 413728 406733
      398739 390744 383747 372749 365751 362751 358750 351747
      343745 334745 328746 325749 323754 326758 332763 336768
      340775 340781 337784 331790 327797 325801 324807 325811
      328815 336819 343820 347820 352818 362805 369799 378794
      385789 391783 397778 403774 409769 414767 418766 417773
      414785 413790 411795 404799 401806 400812 401818 401824
      402826 406825 409821 415813 418803 422795 428787 431781
      434773 443757 446749 450744 454742 459740 462741 470744
      475750 480755 486760 489762 494761 496759 498755 501743
      504731 504719 509698
 0.25 476084 477082 477079 477078 475077 473078 471080 471081
      470082 469083 468085 469088 469090 471093 472092 473091
      474089 474088 476086 476084 476084
 0.25 462893 462891 462888 462886 461885 460883 459882 458883
      457884 456885 456886 455889 454890 454891 455894 455896
      456898 456899 458901 460899 460898 461896 461895 462893
 0.25 375994 375985 372978 370976 367976 364969 362966 360964
      354965 351963 347962 340965 335968 330973 324975 317979
      311983 308983 305985 300991 297998 295006 293010 290011
      282008 279006 275007 271011 270015 271018 278022 285024
      293025 296024 299022 303021 307021 311019 319008 324005
      329011 331017 332021 336022 339021 344021 350025 358025
      360024 363021 367014 371006 375994
 0.25 284003 285001 285999 284998 283997 282996 281995 280994
      279994 277993 275993 273994 271994 270995 270997 270999
      271001 273003 275004 276005 278005 280005 282005 284004
      284003
 0.25 270818 271814 269812 267809 264809 262807 260806 257805
      254805 253808 254812 255814 257815 260817 263818 264819
      268819 270818
 0.50 537896 537883 536869 535859 534854 532849 530847 528851
      528862 528875 529886 530899 530905 532910 534910 536907
      537896
 0.50 492710 492703 490697 487695 482696 479694 475694 473697
      472703 474718 473730 474735 478737 480741 484743 488744
      492744 494741 493733 492718 492710
 0.50 444737 443735 441732 439731 436730 435734 434737 433739
      433744 433749 433752 434754 435754 437751 438748 439745
      441743 442740 444737
 0.50 422742 422737 420731 418728 416729 409735 403740 392749
      385752 378753 377755 379757 382756 382760 379759 362756
      349751 342750 338751 335754 337758 339760 343766 348775
      348783 344788 337792 332796 328799 326803 326809 331815
      337817 343818 348816 357806 361798 364796 368795 372794
      376792 381788 388783 393777 405768 416757 420749 422742
 0.50 369996 371991 370985 364979 359975 351978 348978 346974
      341974 335975 332981 324984 317986 312994 312999 315002
      319001 322997 324997 326999 329008 333015 336017 341017
      344016 348017 352020 356021 361016 365007 369996
 0.50 262813 260812 259811 258811 257811 258813 258814 260814
      262814 262813
 1.00 414746 412741 407743 398751 382766 377767 372767 366768
      362773 352792 349796 347798 343798 340797 336800 332802
      330803 327804 327807 330813 335815 339815 345814 353805
      358797 361792 366788 378786 383783 387779 402763 409755
      412751 414746
 1.00 366994 363993 358993 351989 348989 346987 344984 339983
      335983 332986 330989 331995 333003 340005 349005 351008
      354009 360007 364000 366994
 1.00 357763 356761 355760 355759 353758 353757 351757 349756
      348757 346758 346759 346760 347761 348763 350764 352765
      354766 356765 357763
 1.50 407752 405750 401752 398754 395759 390765 382770 375775
      373778 374783 379782 383780 387773 390770 394768 400761
      406754 407752
 1.50 344809 344807 342807 340806 338806 336806 335807 333807
      332807 331806 329805 328807 328809 329811 330812 332813
      333813 335813 337814 339814 341813 342812 343812 344810
      344809
 2.00 404755 403754 401754 400756 402757 403755 404755
 2.00 402758 400756 398757 397758 397759 395761 397762 399761
      399760 400759 402758
 2.00 384772 382772 382773 380774 379775 379776 379778 379780
      381778 382777 383775 384773 384772
 2.00 334811 333810 332809 331808 330807 329807 329809 330810
      331811 332812 333812 334811

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E TBR 15 ESE AGS MMT 20 E FLO 15 NNW SUT 25 ESE CRE
30 SSE CHS 30 S HXD 10 E TBR.


...COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...

0100 UTC 05/29 UPDATE...

THE APPROACH OF T.S. BONNIE WILL BRING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...ALONG WITH THE EXTREME SRN
NC COAST AND FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF GA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
SC/GA BORDER. THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGH RES (INCLUDED RECENT HRRR/PARALLEL HRRR RUNS) SHOW AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUN. WHILE INITIALLY HIGH...THE FFG WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE
LATEST ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON BONNIE.


...SRN TX...

MODELS SHOW RETURN FLOW SURGE DVLPG OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SAT/SAT EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION..PSBL MCS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT ACRS NRN
MEX.  MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST HERE BOTH IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
BUT ALL GENLY TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CNVTV
THREAT ACRS THIS AREA.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
PSBL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN LATER DATA TRENDS.

SULLIVAN




$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 282023
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

T.D. #2 WILL CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE LOWER SC COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES WILL BE PUSHING INLAND EARLY THIS PERIOD INTO
SC/NC--SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.  HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW
MOVING LAND-FALLING SYSTEM---AND WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASINGLY LARGE AREA OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY 1
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL ACROSS EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST
NC WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.   SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
ITS PROGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QB.  HOWEVER---WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES STRETCHING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE UPPER  MS VALLEY---THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOTALS ARE DEPICTED.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN CA
CLOSED LOW---MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS---PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME
DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE---HOWEVER---IS NOT
GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL.  THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES---WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL OK.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC---INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA.  HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING
THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT INLAND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE WA CASCADES AND WA COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND LIGHT TOTALS
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES OF NORTHERN ID AND NW MT.

DAYS 2/3...

...CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED MEMORIAL DAY FROM PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATL AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ATLANTIC TD2...UPPER DYNAMICS FROM ATLANTIC TD2 AND A DEEP PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE
WESTERLIES. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING JUST NORTH AND WEST OF AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH WILL GIVE
WAY OVER THE TWO DAYS. SO ON MEMORIAL DAY... EXPECT A POTENTIAL
EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAIN TO SETUP FROM ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC
INTO VA AND COASTAL DELMARVA AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/FRONTAL
ZONE OR INVOF THE I95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO NY/BOS... THOUGH SOME
SPREAD STILL EXISTS HERE. SO THE BOTTOM LINE ON MEMORIAL DAY...
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE NEAR ERN SC/NC AND
PERHAPS A PRE NEAR THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. WPC KEPT A SLIGHT THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ON D2 AND ADDED A MDT OVER SC/NC FOR THE LIKELY
REMNANTS OF TD2 AND SLOW MOVEMENT. THEN ON TUES... KEPT THE
RAINFALL THREAT LINGERING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATL COAST
WITH TD2 AND FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING IN THE AREA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS AND ARRIVAL OF A NEW SRN STREAM
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE SWRN STATES WILL YIELD A BROAD UPPER
DIFLUENT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS. MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE
EMBEDDED VORTS WITHIN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EJECT OUT INTO
MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TRACK... ESPECIALLY TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT...
BUT A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE GENERAL
CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY STRETCHING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE/HILL COUNTRY AND PERHAPS OK. THEN ON TUES... POTENTIALLY
A SIMILAR LOCATION FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE/RED RIVER TO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE. AS A RESULT... WPC HAD A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS EACH DAY.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SHORT WAVE OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WHILE FEATURING A RATHER DYNAMIC CLOSED
LOW. EXPECT A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE TO SURGE THROUGH MT/WY AND AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED QPF LATE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THEN ON TUES... THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT MUCH MORE MOISTURE CONTENT FOR WIDESPREAD QPF AND HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
AREA NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ALONG THE OCCLUSION IS A SPOT
WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
OF STEADY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND WPC PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS HERE.

ORAVEC/MUSHER




24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 552107 552096 552089 553085 553079 552075 549069 544061
      540053 533039 528031 523023 530018 535014 538011 540006
      543001 545996 547992 550985 553974 557954 557929 556914
      555901 554873 550843 549826 547822 547815 544784 536764
      520739 516731 513723 509712 507708 506701 502690 497680
      492672 487666 482659 475655 472652 468651 460651 457653
      456657 456668 456686 454696 452701 448704 435712 429716
      425720 423726 420735 419740 417744 413744 408745 397746
      393745 387745 379745 372744 363746 361742 358741 351740
      347741 344743 339743 335745 330751 327757 318774 305784
      302787 302792 306800 310809 312814 312820 314826 316829
      319830 327830 333833 337835 341835 345843 349843 350846
      353848 358848 366845 370842 373838 379834 381830 384828
      387827 387830 387834 384838 382843 379852 380859 380864
      382864 388861 392855 397851 401845 407838 411838 415835
      418833 419835 414841 410848 404854 396860 391865 380880
      377884 375888 373900 374906 378913 380916 383916 390915
      398911 401909 406908 409906 413906 418906 422907 428912
      430918 431922 430925 429936 428940 425944 423947 422956
      423962 426966 434966 443971 456976 471977 479982 482982
      485985 494985 500983 509983 511982 513983 513991 509002
      507998 503998 498998 495000 490000 486001 483003 483006
      481008 477006 473006 468013 467024 468027 470030 476033
      489043 492045 494049 498056 516086 525104 532112 541114
      545115 548113 552107
 0.01 537213 538202 538195 538185 536177 522152 518148 513144
      508145 502144 497143 491139 486133 481130 475129 471130
      466132 460135 457135 455137 456140 455145 454148 452151
      451156 451161 452166 451170 452173 454176 455167 454162
      453155 455152 457152 461153 467157 470165 470170 472171
      475174 478173 481174 485175 486177 487183 487189 488193
      487198 486201 484201 482201 476205 468211 462213 458215
      452219 450221 449224 455225 460227 470224 475222 481222
      488226 492231 493235 492238 485238 482238 481235 479230
      476228 473229 468231 464231 462233 455233 453235 452240
      458242 469242 479249 485254 490260 494266 499271 503275
      507277 510276 511273 513271 514266 518260 522255 526247
      529240 531234 533226 535217 537213
 0.01 452042 452039 450036 447036 445034 442033 438031 436033
      436038 436040 439043 441043 443046 446046 448044 450042
      452042
 0.01 443101 443094 440091 433095 428089 426091 429098 423102
      417109 414110 413107 412100 412095 410092 406092 404095
      402103 401105 397105 392105 388108 380116 378116 376120
      373125 375131 378130 387126 395119 401117 409118 412120
      414122 416123 417128 417132 415139 411142 406140 398138
      393138 389143 387146 387150 386154 384159 381175 380180
      379183 372182 366179 359179 350181 346186 344192 346199
      347201 349199 348194 349190 351188 356188 361190 371195
      394207 396205 395203 393198 390194 389190 390186 393178
      399176 406178 410178 412177 415173 418169 421164 422156
      424135 425130 426127 430121 434119 438115 443101
 0.01 230011 239018 246020 253024 259027 263030 267031 284036
      297040 303043 306045 310045 314047 319048 329049 332048
      337048 344046 349042 353038 359032 364030 369028 374029
      377031 378037 379041 376044 372046 369046 365047 362047
      356050 358055 362056 364055 373053 380058 382061 382066
      378067 375064 369065 371070 374078 376082 378083 383077
      385075 387075 390078 393080 397080 401074 405073 407075
      413074 418062 415054 409049 407045 408040 412031 418020
      424004 427994 428991 426987 424982 424978 421975 417975
      394961 387957 380954 375953 372951 364949 352952 345955
      340959 336961 334964 329970 323975 319976 314977 299979
      294981 287984 272990 268991 264991 253991 248991 242990
      236989 231990
 0.01 345180 344176 344171 343166 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 341174 341177 341182 345180 345180
 0.01 305078 305072 303065 300063 297060 294060 287060 281061
      268060 263059 259063 256067 256074 259078 264082 273088
      284093 290094 295092 300089 303085 305078
 0.01 291826 287818 286814 284808 278804 270800 267799 261799
      256801 252803 249806 250812 252816 255819 263821 270825
      278828 289827 291826
 0.25 546920 544899 542875 539848 536838 533827 528812 525805
      522802 519802 514802 512797 509789 506778 504764 500747
      498738 495728 488709 480691 476685 473680 469679 468681
      466689 465700 466712 468722 470736 469745 468753 467762
      467768 468771 472780 477787 484806 486812 489820 490833
      489843 485863 484869 484874 479873 471873 466876 461872
      455876 449882 443886 437891 436895 436899 441913 445921
      451925 454926 457925 463919 472904 481894 486890 488887
      488882 490878 492883 495891 498901 502911 503914 502920
      501928 500939 501944 503947 510946 517944 520941 524940
      531939 537937 541933 544926 546920
 0.25 531202 529191 526182 520173 514166 508165 503164 500165
      497168 496173 496177 500185 505194 507197 512199 520204
      526205 529204 531202
 0.25 536083 536076 534071 530063 524055 518050 510046 508045
      509050 513059 516069 521077 526084 530087 533087 535085
      536083
 0.25 503236 504230 503225 501217 496210 490208 483209 477212
      475214 476217 482219 488221 491223 493228 496234 500236
      503236
 0.25 441745 440743 439742 437742 435742 433740 432741 432742
      431745 431746 431747 431750 431752 433754 433755 435755
      437753 438751 438750 440748 441745 441745
 0.25 392764 392761 390760 384761 372762 362761 356760 352759
      344765 335771 328777 325781 320783 316785 313789 313797
      314805 318813 327819 335822 342822 347820 353813 359803
      361799 364796 369793 375790 378788 381784 387774 392764
 0.25 375191 374190 374188 373187 371186 370185 368184 366184
      365184 364186 366187 367188 368190 369190 371191 372192
      374192 375191
 0.25 375988 376983 376979 373974 364964 360962 356962 354964
      347976 345981 341986 336990 330988 316987 303992 290993
      283993 277995 272998 269003 267005 269007 274011 279012
      287013 300013 314015 321016 327016 338012 343011 349013
      355014 360012 365007 369001 371994 375988
 0.25 267013 267011 265010 265011 263011 262012 261013 261014
      262015 263015 265015 267013 267013
 0.50 539917 540910 540903 539887 538872 535856 532846 528837
      525837 524840 522835 517824 511820 507810 505796 503788
      502780 501769 498757 496750 495742 491729 483711 478700
      476702 475707 476720 476732 475746 474760 475767 477771
      482780 490801 494810 497820 499830 499838 497852 496857
      497862 502870 507880 513888 516914 518920 521924 524927
      529926 536923 539917
 0.50 521191 520188 519185 517182 515179 514176 512174 510172
      507171 505171 504176 505179 507182 509185 510187 513189
      515191 518192 521191
 0.50 462898 463895 463893 461892 460893 458895 458896 457898
      456899 456901 455903 455906 456908 457908 458908 459908
      459905 460904 460903 461900 462900 462898
 0.50 367780 367775 365773 360769 355772 350777 338782 332785
      324787 317789 315792 315796 316804 320810 324814 330817
      336819 340818 343816 348813 353807 359796 365784 367780
 0.50 299002 297998 293997 288995 284994 280995 277997 275003
      278006 284007 287008 291006 295004 298003 299002
 1.00 497776 497771 496766 495758 493751 490744 488737 486735
      483735 481741 481751 482761 485768 488774 492777 495778
      497776
 1.00 352793 351791 346790 337791 328792 321793 319795 318800
      319805 321808 326813 333815 340814 345809 349804 351795
      352793
 1.50 346803 345796 341795 337795 332795 326796 323798 322804
      322806 324810 328812 332813 336813 341811 344807 345805
      346803
 2.00 344803 343800 341798 337797 334798 330799 328801 327803
      326806 326808 328809 331811 333811 337811 339810 342808
      343805 344803
 3.00 337806 337804 336803 335804 334804 334806 335807 336807
      337806

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 525193 525187 524182 521174 526163 525152 521142 518137
      518130 516115 514101 513085 509062 506048 503037 501027
      499013 496991 487974 482973 477973 464973 457954 453944
      449937 443929 442926 443923 447921 449919 452920 455925
      459925 464927 466928 469930 471935 472941 472945 474945
      479950 484944 484941 481937 476929 469924 465920 462917
      447908 443904 438904 435907 432905 426898 423887 421873
      419863 415853 411855 406859 402864 398871 395879 395894
      395906 394911 395917 400925 398929 395931 392930 386924
      382920 380915 379910 378907 376907 372909 367907 358904
      354903 350907 342910 338912 333914 329914 326913 319907
      324889 316885 316881 314883 311884 307881 304877 303871
      299869 295855 293851 293847 294843 295841 297842 300846
      303848 303844 301840 299838 301836 302833 300829 301821
      299819 301815 304814 306812 309814 311817 315818 319819
      328821 349821 350824 350828 348833 348837 346843 348848
      346852 338852 342855 339861 336864 330865 328868 331869
      329875 329879 336882 341884 343882 348876 353870 356871
      357874 355877 352879 350883 349886 352888 358883 358879
      360876 363874 366871 371869 373864 376862 380859 383855
      390850 398845 406838 409835 412831 420825 426825 430822
      439821 445827 450834 449841 451843 451865 455869 457867
      460866 464868 467867 469863 472858 473850 474844 473837
      469826 468819 466814 462804 452784 454775 457766 459756
      461751 463746 472728 481710 482697 483695 484691 487686
      489680 487672 486665 483659 480656 480650 480645 477643
      462653 448655 441661 434667 426674 419680 406693 399700
      392706 385712 382721 379725 375728 366734 346742 341743
      339746 334754
 0.01 334754 327766 321780 319788 317793 317797 316801 312803
      306807 301807 298804 292802 286799 278797 274799 272802
      270798 265798 262799 259797 253800 248803 245809 244813
      242815 245821 252823 258823 261824 267828 272834 278839
      283846 287854 289857 289862 291871 292882 293892 297899
      293899 293902 293907 294910 295918 297927 301935 303945
      304954 309960 310963 308966 301970 294973 289973 286971
      284970 279970 271970 266971 262969 260973 263975 268976
      273977 274980 263988 259993 254993 251991 243988 240987
      237990 240006 240016 247021 277033 288040 294044 300048
      310058 312058 313052 312047 313042 316035 323037 329040
      336039 339039 339036 345036 350036 355036 358035 363035
      365036 364038 362042 363047 363053 361056 364057 366057
      368060 371066 372070 372075 372082 374084 378086 381084
      383084 384087 380091 378094 377098 379099 383097 385097
      387094 390090 392091 391094 390098 392101 394105 390108
      388106 385111 378113 376119 374123 372122 367121 364122
      362131 361136 363140 366142 368144 370147 371144 371140
      373141 386150 385166 385172 383176 382181 377181 375185
      373184 372181 370178 365178 364172 361170 360172 360176
      359181 353183 373194 376197 381199 384201 388200 388181
      392173 395165 399151 399145 403145 404149 404154 406156
      410152 412150 411143 414140 418140 427128 430125 432127
      434129 437126 437124 435119 438117 441118 446120 444125
      441129 441136 439144 440144 443140 445138 447138 447148
      450157 450168 449173 451176 456172 464169 465164 465161
      467162 469165 473164 474171 476170 480171 482175 484179
      482183 480186 481190 484192 488193 495192 499191 503192
      516196 521196 525193
 0.01 479215 478213 476211 474211 470212 468214 466216 466219
      467221 471222 472225 474224 476220 477217 479215
 0.01 472153 471151 471149 469149 468150 468152 468155 468156
      470155 472153
 0.01 428999 428997 427995 426995 424997 423999 423001 424002
      425002 427001 428999
 0.01 422091 423088 423086 421084 421083 420081 418083 416085
      415087 416090 417092 419092 421093 422091
 0.01 418100 417097 415099 415100 414101 414104 416104 418102
      418100 418100
 0.01 403095 404093 403090 402088 400090 399092 399094 399097
      401099 403097 403095
 0.01 400800 397799 394800 392802 388803 389806 390806 391808
      389813 392812 393810 395807 397805 398802 400800
 0.01 385834 384831 382830 378830 376832 373835 370838 366840
      364845 361850 364851 367851 370848 374844 377841 380839
      384836 385834
 0.01 371136 372134 372131 373129 371127 369127 368128 368131
      369133 369135 370138 371136
 0.01 378055 377053 375055 375056 377057 378055
 0.01 364159 364157 363155 363154 361154 361156 360159 362159
      364159 364159
 0.01 345178 345176 345171 345168 343166 340165 336164 332164
      332166 334167 337170 339171 339174 340177 340181 343183
      344180 345178
 0.01 333846 325836 323836 323843 323846 321848 314850 307852
      302856 298857 299858 301859 306859 311858 312861 312865
      308866 306865 304866 306869 307871 308875 314878 318878
      320870 321868 321863 326858 330854 332847 333846
 0.01 293834 291833 289831 287829 286831 286833 288834 290835
      291836 293834
 0.01 282827 280827 278827 276828 278829 280829 282827
 0.25 514158 514150 511144 504134 498123 494119 489120 487123
      486128 481130 472133 470135 470139 475143 484148 494156
      498160 501162 505161 509162 514158
 0.25 496072 494054 494048 495042 495035 495029 487015 485005
      481999 478997 476993 474984 472981 470982 464987 460986
      459982 456974 453965 452957 450952 445954 441950 437944
      436934 434926 432922 429920 425920 423916 420906 419894
      417890 412890 407895 405900 406904 410911 414916 413926
      410935 409956 412963 417969 422975 427980 433984 435993
      434998 432997 433001 432008 431012 428010 425008 422004
      420996 418992 416991 410994 406000 403006 401998 400993
      401988 399986 395986 392986 387984 386974 385970 387967
      391961 393957 393952 387945 381942 372941 370940 367937
      363930 357926 354925 352923 345922 338920 335921 333924
      331926 325927 321933 321938 322941 323952 324956 322958
      320958 319961 317966 315969 310971 304974 298978 295985
      296988 293993 291994 290991 286987 284984 281985 276988
      266996 264002 266009 267016 268019 272021 281024 287024
      290021 290019 293017 297019 296023 291027 290032 293035
      302036 305036 308032 306026 313024 319028 327029 332031
      338032 344027 350021 354016 358014 362014 373015 369983
      376981 381983 388996 392996 394995 398002 401005 401009
      400014 399018 397023 398028 404023 408018 414017 417020
      421022 426022 434025 437027 441026 447026 451027 453028
      459032 464038 466046 466050 465055 464062 467071 471073
      471080 471090 469090 468085 466081 464077 464072 462068
      461064 459061 447068 442066 439068 440071 446077 450082
      451085 450089 448092 447095 447099 447105 449108 454114
      457111 459111 460114 460119 462124 469125 470125 473121
      474116 477112 480102 483096 486088 490076 494075 496072
 0.25 477684 476676 473670 469666 465664 461664 458666 449668
      443670 439673 430680 422689 414699 407709 398716 389723
      382733 375744 373747 366749 361747 355746 352747 349749
      344754 340758 337762 336776 335782 332787 325796 317806
      315811 317813 323811 330811 342815 346816 354816 365812
      369810 374806 383800 392789 399782 402778 408774 412772
      415765 418761 425757 428756 431760 434767 437770 441766
      445760 447755 450748 458726 461721 464715 471703 477684
 0.25 466134 466132 466130 464131 464132 465134 465135 466134
 0.25 465097 466095 465093 464092 462093 461094 460096 459099
      460100 462100 463099 465097 465097
 0.25 421780 420780 418780 416780 415781 414781 413782 411783
      410784 408786 407787 408788 410788 412787 413786 415785
      417783 418782 420781 421780
 0.25 407107 409105 409103 409101 410098 410096 408094 406095
      406098 405100 405102 406104 406105 407107 407108 407107
 0.25 389144 390141 389141 389144 389144
 0.25 390123 390122 390121 389118 389116 388116 387117 385118
      383120 382122 381124 382126 384127 385127 386127 388125
      390123 390123
 0.25 364976 363974 362974 361976 362978 364976
 0.25 306998 305996 304995 302994 301993 300994 301994 302996
      302998 302999 304999 306998 306998
 0.25 308935 307933 306931 306930 306928 305926 304924 303923
      301923 301924 301925 301926 302928 303930 303931 304933
      305934 305935 307937 308935
 0.25 288810 287809 286808 285808 284810 284811 284812 284813
      286813 286812 288810 288810
 0.25 273812 272806 270803 265802 263803 258804 253806 255811
      257813 260817 264819 268820 271820 273816 273812
 0.50 510154 508147 504142 500138 496133 493129 489132 485136
      488141 491145 496149 501152 507155 510154
 0.50 493030 491028 488027 480028 479025 481021 483015 482008
      474993 472989 469987 462992 455995 452993 451987 452979
      450973 447970 440967 440959 437949 435947 432949 431952
      426953 423951 421947 419943 417941 415942 414948 415954
      419961 425965 431970 436969 438972 437976 438985 441996
      441001 440005 437008 437014 438017 441019 450021 457023
      462032 466038 470045 477051 477056 476062 477067 483060
      488043 493030
 0.50 473680 471674 467671 461670 457674 451678 446673 442674
      438679 430687 427691 421696 417700 413704 405715 397722
      392725 388731 382741 378748 374751 370755 367757 363757
      360752 357751 353752 347754 342758 340764 340773 339779
      336784 332789 328793 320804 318808 318811 320810 325807
      330804 333810 338812 344813 352814 364810 369808 373804
      379800 381796 399778 408771 414762 424753 428750 432744
      435739 439734 442728 444723 449708 452703 453703 454706
      452712 452719 452724 454726 457720 468695 469683 472683
      473680
 0.50 475109 476106 476104 475101 473101 472101 470102 470103
      468105 468108 469110 471112 472111 473110 474109 475109
 0.50 478039 478037 478034 478032 477030 476029 474029 472029
      471029 469030 469031 468033 469036 470038 471038 472039
      474041 475042 476041 477041 478039
 0.50 454078 453077 452076 451075 450074 448073 447075 448076
      449078 451079 453079 454078
 0.50 399991 398989 396989 394988 392988 391989 389990 388993
      389994 390995 392993 394992 396993 398993 399991
 0.50 384959 384956 384955 383954 382954 380955 380956 379958
      380961 382962 383961 384959 384959
 0.50 383977 382974 380974 378974 377974 375976 377978 378979
      379979 380979 381979 382978 383977
 0.50 372010 373008 373006 373003 373001 373000 372001 371003
      369005 369008 368010 368012 369012 370014 372012 372011
      372010
 0.50 373972 374970 375967 373965 371967 371968 372970 373972
      373972
 0.50 362791 360790 359791 357790 355791 354793 355794 357793
      359793 360794 361794 362791 362791
 0.50 366994 366989 365986 360986 356986 353987 350985 348981
      349976 350973 349970 347966 347961 348959 350960 352963
      357964 359961 362954 366955 366950 364943 361935 353934
      349928 343925 339925 335927 334930 331932 329932 328935
      329940 330945 331948 336954 340959 339964 334963 328962
      322962 320964 316970 311974 306975 304977 302980 303983
      321005 322014 323023 325026 330026 338024 349018 354013
      361011 364002 366994
 0.50 356007 356005 356002 355001 353002 353003 352004 352007
      352009 353009 354008 356007
 0.50 318020 316017 313013 311009 313005 311001 306002 304006
      305011 305015 303015 304019 308021 312022 316022 318020
 0.50 301013 301006 299000 299994 297992 295993 293999 291001
      290997 284990 280988 275991 270999 269002 271007 275010
      280009 281006 280003 282003 284008 289012 293013 300014
      301013
 0.50 270816 268814 266813 264811 262809 263807 263804 259805
      258805 255808 256809 258812 260815 262816 264817 268818
      270816
 1.00 478014 478007 476002 474997 472992 469990 465994 463998
      462003 463009 465014 467018 471020 475018 478014
 1.00 434710 433707 429709 423704 411714 402726 390736 371757
      367762 360762 353764 349766 345765 344768 345773 348775
      351775 366779 375789 373795 377794 378791 383786 390783
      393779 394776 402772 410762 416757 421751 427747 430740
      432737 431731 426739 421740 420736 422732 427715 429714
      434710
 1.00 369802 369800 368800 367802 366802 366804 367805 368804
      369803 369802
 1.00 363998 363996 362994 362992 360991 358991 357993 356994
      357995 357996 358998 360000 362000 363998
 1.00 358808 355803 352802 348805 344804 339803 336800 340798
      343797 345799 347798 347795 347787 347783 343784 335790
      331792 327796 325799 329801 333804 336808 346811 350812
      355810 358808
 1.00 354011 348004 349997 349992 348989 343986 340982 339981
      335980 333978 334973 335969 333967 328966 323966 321968
      322971 328980 325984 320985 315983 312981 312983 315987
      313990 313992 319990 322995 323000 326004 328008 329012
      325013 324020 327024 332023 335020 334014 340009 344007
      346009 346013 347016 350015 354011
 1.00 342941 342939 341936 341935 339935 339936 339939 339941
      341943 342941
 1.00 315020 315018 314016 313015 313014 311013 309013 308015
      308017 309018 311019 311020 312020 314020 315020
 1.00 312005 311004 309003 307004 307007 307008 309008 311007
      311006 312005
 1.00 297006 298004 298002 297000 295002 294004 295005 295006
      296007 297006
 1.00 284997 283995 282995 280994 279995 279997 280998 282999
      284997
 1.50 420718 418714 415717 408723 405728 401731 397734 392737
      378752 375756 372760 371766 365768 348771 355774 359775
      366775 376776 376779 378781 381782 385780 389772 393768
      394768 396771 413758 413753 415748 416744 415740 415736
      416733 419726 420718
 1.50 406747 406745 406743 405743 404742 402743 402744 400746
      399748 398749 397750 397752 396754 396756 396757 398758
      400757 402756 403755 404752 405752 405750 406748 406747
 1.50 355806 353805 349806 348808 345807 342807 339806 336805
      337807 339808 342808 345809 348809 351809 353807 355806
 1.50 351013 352011 351011 350011 349012 347013 349014 351013
      351013
 1.50 345792 344791 342790 340790 339791 337791 335792 333793
      332794 330796 332796 334797 336797 337797 339797 341796
      343795 344794 344793 345792
 1.50 346002 347998 346995 344991 342989 339984 335982 332980
      329982 327984 326988 324994 324999 328003 333007 336007
      338005 342004 346002
 1.50 331021 330020 329019 328018 327018 326018 326020 327022
      328023 329023 330021 331021
 1.50 331969 330968 328968 327969 328971 330971 331969
 1.50 314018 314017 312017 311015 310015 311016 312017 312018
      314018 314018
 2.00 417721 417719 416719 415722 415724 416726 417724 417722
      417721
 2.00 415729 415727 414726 414727 414729 415729 415729
 2.00 412746 412744 411743 410744 409745 408747 408748 407749
      407752 408753 409752 410750 411749 411747 412746
 2.00 409759 409758 408756 408754 407753 406754 405755 404757
      404758 402760 400762 400763 399764 398765 399766 401766
      402765 402764 404763 406762 406761 407760 409759 409759
 2.00 402737 400734 396735 391740 386746 381750 376755 375759
      377762 379766 383764 386761 391756 396750 399744 402737
 2.00 385774 384774 382774 382775 382777 384775 385774
 2.00 373770 373769 371769 369769 367769 365769 364770 362771
      361772 362773 363773 364774 366774 368774 369773 371772
      371771 373770 373770
 2.00 342794 342792 341792 339792 337793 335794 334795 336796
      337796 339796 341795 342794
 2.00 345000 343995 340991 339986 337984 332982 330983 328986
      326992 326996 329999 333001 338000 344001 345000
 3.00 397740 396738 394740 393741 391743 390745 389746 388748
      387749 386749 387749 387751 389752 390751 392750 393748
      393747 394745 395744 395743 396741 397740
 3.00 385756 384755 382755 380756 379757 380759 381759 382758
      384757 385756
 3.00 336989 336986 335986 333987 332987 330988 331990 333990
      335990 336989

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 514158 513152 511148 505142 489134 482128 476121 474116
      478114 481111 484110 488114 491117 494117 497116 498113
      504110 506101 514098 517094 518080 517074 517067 516056
      514051 513046 511035 510021 508009 506996 506981 505970
      504966 504960 501940 493901 486896 479892 479878 478871
      476867 472860 466853 458857 452864 448869 443873 432868
      429868 429866 431864 436862 441862 447863 448855 442851
      439849 434849 419855 409852 404843 402841 400838 398839
      395846 392863 387870 386878 381884 376888 367882 364881
      359883 356885 351885 347884 345885 345890 347893 349896
      349899 351902 354906 350909 345910 341911 335917 335921
      334925 325926 325930 326934 328943 332947 331954 327951
      322945 320941 316939 309935 300935 296936 294939 290946
      286956 283959 280961 277963 275967 273976 270982 268985
      269988 265990 260989 255992 248994 243994 240995 239003
      238007 240010 246015 257025 261029 266031 273035 281039
      288043 300050 314052 322048 323041 326039 331039 337035
      341034 344037 348043 348050 347054 348057 348063 353064
      356065 358067 359069 362070 365072 368071 373073 374078
      375082 377083 384083 383090 384094 387095 389091 391089
      395089 399082 403077 406071 411063 413059 411056 409051
      407048 405047 405044 410043 414036 415033 418033 419036
      419040 418055 418060 421062 422061 426063 428065 431066
      435074 440074 443077 448082 449086 445087 433089 428087
      426089 426091 429094 434095 437094 443099 450094 452090
      453087 456086 461089 464092 467100 467110 463116 464124
      466127 470129 483140 488144 494148 506155 510158 514158
 0.01 480693 474694 471695 470691 473678 472674 468676 465680
      461693 459700 456705 452709 450716 449724 450729 454735
      455732 460719 466708 475700 479696 480693
 0.01 441662 438661 437657 437651 435651 433654 430658 426672
      424676 421678 414679 411682 405684 397690 390697 387701
      384706 381712 377716 370725 362734 356738 351741 345743
      341746 336752 331761 320767 305783 282796 279798 274801
      270800 269798 263797 256798 252800 251805 250807 249806
      245806 243809 245813 249817 254819 258822 263825 269824
      274826 284827 280829 282832 286836 286841 286854 286861
      286869 287876 290881 294887 296893 298895 295897 295902
      299906 303908 306911 308916 326907 331904 333901 327899
      320900 317905 313906 310905 308899 306896 306892 309882
      311876 310869 310862 307858 306851 307846 309843 308838
      306835 304830 306827 307822 307817 305816 301815 299813
      297812 297809 304808 311809 315813 312817 314820 329824
      335822 338822 339824 338825 333828 329833 326837 326842
      328844 329848 331851 331856 329859 328863 328865 331865
      335863 340862 344860 347857 350852 352847 356834 360830
      361823 368813 371808 373805 377803 381800 382794 385786
      386781 384780 384777 386772 389768 402748 405746 409745
      416743 424734 422719 423711 425705 426699 429695 432687
      438672 440667 441662
 0.01 411103 411098 408095 405095 401097 398099 396097 393096
      391097 390100 390104 386102 383102 379099 378096 377099
      375101 376105 373109 370111 369113 372118 375120 373123
      369123 367120 356120 353117 350119 347120 346116 346111
      343109 341103 342096 343084 342076 340073 335073 331077
      336083 338091 338097 339102 337105 337111 339120 342126
      346133 345141 344143 349143 351141 356136 360145 362149
      365146 367143 367137 369132 371129 375123 379120 383118
      389114 392113 396113 401113 406109 411103
 0.01 380197 378191 373186 368183 363180 356179 350180 349183
      351186 355186 362187 367190 372193 377197 380197
 0.01 384081 386079 385077 383079 384081 384081
 0.01 385029 385027 384025 383026 383029 384031 385029
 0.01 350815 348814 346814 344815 343815 341815 340817 341818
      343818 345818 347818 348817 350815
 0.01 347829 347827 345825 344827 344829 346831 347829
 0.01 304865 303863 303861 302859 302857 301855 300853 298851
      296849 295851 295853 296855 297857 298859 299861 301863
      301865 303867 304865
 0.01 296836 296834 295833 294834 294836 295838 296836
 0.25 503075 504066 505058 506047 506036 502997 495969 485949
      483946 483940 482932 482927 482922 483914 482909 479909
      475907 474903 472895 472884 471880 469880 464882 459884
      454882 450880 444881 439883 435886 431887 427887 424888
      423890 422895 420896 413897 409898 407901 404908 401914
      399921 399925 396930 396936 397940 395943 385945 382948
      380950 380953 383960 382967 378973 375972 374969 373962
      372957 372951 375945 378937 382926 380922 379920 375918
      369916 362916 356915 350917 343939 342944 344948 347954
      346958 343958 337960 332963 327962 320956 317952 315950
      312950 306952 302949 298952 295964 287971 283979 277983
      280995 280001 276003 272002 267000 260999 258000 258003
      260008 264013 268016 280021 294023 301022 308021 312020
      319019 327018 332016 336012 338011 341012 344017 345026
      348031 360029 361024 363022 367018 370010 375011 380014
      385017 391020 394020 405022 409020 412020 414021 417022
      419020 415015 414012 415009 419006 423004 426006 428009
      432010 444005 449009 453010 462010 465014 465018 464023
      460025 456030 450043 450048 451052 454058 456067 457071
      459074 463075 468078 471083 474088 473093 474096 477099
      482100 486098 488096 491096 492098 495099 499095 501087
      503075
 0.25 402727 402722 401716 399714 395715 391718 388723 385730
      380736 373745 371752 368755 364756 360752 354751 347751
      341755 337758 334763 326776 319777 316781 314789 317796
      319798 320802 321806 324807 332795 335795 337797 337802
      339804 345802 348799 348796 352790 356787 370781 375778
      379773 383766 383762 386758 389754 393750 397745 400738
      402727
 0.25 399058 399055 397053 396053 395052 393051 392051 390051
      388052 388054 387056 387059 388061 389063 391065 393065
      394064 395064 396062 396061 397060 398058 399058
 0.25 382056 381054 380053 379053 377052 376051 375051 374050
      372049 370049 369048 367049 366050 365052 367053 368054
      370054 372054 374054 375055 377055 378055 379056 381057
      382056
 0.25 285810 284808 282808 280808 278808 277809 277811 278812
      280812 282812 284811 285810
 0.25 268816 268814 266812 264812 262812 261813 262815 264817
      266818 268816 268816
 0.25 263805 263804 261803 259803 258804 256805 256807 258809
      258810 260810 262809 263807 263806 263805
 0.50 503055 504038 502022 500006 497989 494977 489968 479953
      476948 470948 467933 466930 467925 468919 470912 471903
      469898 465894 460894 456892 450886 447883 443885 442887
      442892 443900 445905 445911 441924 439927 435927 428927
      424928 421932 414937 411938 412940 414941 414945 409949
      405954 403960 402963 399965 395963 390964 387969 384975
      380979 377978 373976 368976 366978 363984 361979 362965
      364958 365953 365944 365937 366929 364928 362930 359936
      355936 350935 349941 350946 354949 355952 354957 353962
      351965 344964 340965 336969 330970 330972 332975 335980
      336983 336986 332990 329992 332994 333999 337003 344008
      347012 348017 346024 346026 349027 353024 356019 365014
      366011 364008 364003 365997 368994 375988 378986 381992
      381998 385002 389005 390006 390010 391015 394014 398013
      402009 406003 409998 413996 418988 421985 426984 429988
      430994 430001 432005 441000 443998 446999 449004 461003
      465006 469010 471024 472036 470041 465041 459041 455042
      453044 453047 455053 458058 461062 476076 481075 484071
      487069 491070 493075 494082 494090 496090 496087 499078
      500066 503055
 0.50 447954 447953 445952 446954 447955 447954
 0.50 440981 440976 436973 432971 428968 425968 423968 419969
      418972 419973 422975 428977 431979 436980 440981 440981
 0.50 418952 418949 417949 416949 414952 416953 417953 418952
 0.50 407970 407968 407967 406968 405968 404970 404973 405974
      406973 407970 407970
 0.50 394734 393729 390730 386733 384738 382741 379744 376749
      376753 380754 385753 388750 392747 393742 394736 394734
 0.50 375769 374767 374766 372766 371768 369769 367770 366771
      364772 363773 362775 361776 363778 365778 366778 368778
      370777 372776 373774 374772 375770 375769
 0.50 356766 357762 356759 353756 349753 347754 342757 339760
      334767 332775 332781 334785 336789 339790 341792 343795
      344798 345796 344790 342783 350778 354770 356766
 0.50 330794 330793 328793 326793 324795 324797 324799 325800
      327799 328796 330794 330794
 0.50 318973 317973 316972 314972 313973 312973 311975 310976
      310977 310978 311979 312980 314979 315978 317977 317975
      318973
 0.50 316011 316006 315001 313996 308990 305985 300981 303977
      308972 309969 309964 304962 301964 300966 299969 299975
      298979 295980 289983 286987 284993 285001 284005 281007
      279009 280013 285017 292018 300016 307016 313014 316011
 1.00 498051 500039 499027 496010 494006 492003 490001 489995
      490980 487975 483966 478962 472961 465962 464974 454969
      450971 448974 449978 451982 451993 452996 455996 462993
      467989 469989 471991 471001 471006 473009 475013 475020
      477028 480034 485040 487043 487048 479057 475057 473056
      466051 460049 458050 458052 461055 464056 472058 475061
      479061 484057 488055 493060 496059 497056 498051
 1.00 465905 464903 462903 458902 455902 453904 452908 452913
      455915 457916 459915 462914 464913 465908 465905
 1.00 454957 454953 452949 451947 450945 448942 446940 444940
      444945 446947 447949 449952 450954 454957 454957
 1.00 427938 426937 424938 423939 421940 420942 421943 423943
      424942 424941 425940 426939 427938
 1.00 374983 373983 371982 369982 368983 369984 371984 373983
      374983
 1.00 360009 360998 359990 356987 355983 356977 355973 346972
      341977 341984 342990 341995 344003 347009 350011 354012
      360009
 1.00 349762 348758 344759 341762 338765 336769 335775 336778
      338780 343777 345774 347771 348765 349762
 1.00 305002 304998 302994 299991 295992 292989 289989 290993
      289997 291001 294002 297000 300001 304003 305002
 1.50 496046 497036 496028 495021 493017 488007 485001 484995
      484985 484987 479992 477995 476004 479007 482012 482019
      481025 482030 486035 488040 490047 492051 496046
 1.50 461986 462984 462981 460979 459979 457981 455983 455986
      456988 457989 458990 460988 461986
 1.50 357007 357003 357998 357994 356991 353989 351989 350989
      348993 347995 346000 347004 349006 351007 354009 357007
 1.50 344768 343766 341766 340766 338768 338769 338770 339771
      340772 342772 343770 344769 344768
 1.50 351978 350977 348977 347978 348979 350979 351978
 2.00 494043 494036 493031 492025 490020 488016 486015 486022
      486025 486031 488035 490040 492045 494043
 2.00 349002 349000 349002 349002

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 281839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

T.D. #2 WILL CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE LOWER SC COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES WILL BE PUSHING INLAND EARLY THIS PERIOD INTO
SC/NC--SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.  HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW
MOVING LAND-FALLING SYSTEM---AND WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASINGLY LARGE AREA OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY 1
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL ACROSS EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST
NC WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.   SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
ITS PROGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QB.  HOWEVER---WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES STRETCHING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE UPPER  MS VALLEY---THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOTALS ARE DEPICTED.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN CA
CLOSED LOW---MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS---PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME
DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE---HOWEVER---IS NOT
GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL.  THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES---WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL OK.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC---INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA.  HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING
THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT INLAND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE WA CASCADES AND WA COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND LIGHT TOTALS
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES OF NORTHERN ID AND NW MT.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 552107 552096 552089 553085 553079 552075 549069 544061
      540053 533039 528031 523023 530018 535014 538011 540006
      543001 545996 547992 550985 553974 557954 557929 556914
      555901 554873 550843 549826 547822 547815 544784 536764
      520739 516731 513723 509712 507708 506701 502690 497680
      492672 487666 482659 475655 472652 468651 460651 457653
      456657 456668 456686 454696 452701 448704 435712 429716
      425720 423726 420735 419740 417744 413744 408745 397746
      393745 387745 379745 372744 363746 361742 358741 351740
      347741 344743 339743 335745 330751 327757 318774 305784
      302787 302792 306800 310809 312814 312820 314826 316829
      319830 327830 333833 337835 341835 345843 349843 350846
      353848 358848 366845 370842 373838 379834 381830 384828
      387827 387830 387834 384838 382843 379852 380859 380864
      382864 388861 392855 397851 401845 407838 411838 415835
      418833 419835 414841 410848 404854 396860 391865 380880
      377884 375888 373900 374906 378913 380916 383916 390915
      398911 401909 406908 409906 413906 418906 422907 428912
      430918 431922 430925 429936 428940 425944 423947 422956
      423962 426966 434966 443971 456976 471977 479982 482982
      485985 494985 500983 509983 511982 513983 513991 509002
      507998 503998 498998 495000 490000 486001 483003 483006
      481008 477006 473006 468013 467024 468027 470030 476033
      489043 492045 494049 498056 516086 525104 532112 541114
      545115 548113 552107
 0.01 537213 538202 538195 538185 536177 522152 518148 513144
      508145 502144 497143 491139 486133 481130 475129 471130
      466132 460135 457135 455137 456140 455145 454148 452151
      451156 451161 452166 451170 452173 454176 455167 454162
      453155 455152 457152 461153 467157 470165 470170 472171
      475174 478173 481174 485175 486177 487183 487189 488193
      487198 486201 484201 482201 476205 468211 462213 458215
      452219 450221 449224 455225 460227 470224 475222 481222
      488226 492231 493235 492238 485238 482238 481235 479230
      476228 473229 468231 464231 462233 455233 453235 452240
      458242 469242 479249 485254 490260 494266 499271 503275
      507277 510276 511273 513271 514266 518260 522255 526247
      529240 531234 533226 535217 537213
 0.01 452042 452039 450036 447036 445034 442033 438031 436033
      436038 436040 439043 441043 443046 446046 448044 450042
      452042
 0.01 443101 443094 440091 433095 428089 426091 429098 423102
      417109 414110 413107 412100 412095 410092 406092 404095
      402103 401105 397105 392105 388108 380116 378116 376120
      373125 375131 378130 387126 395119 401117 409118 412120
      414122 416123 417128 417132 415139 411142 406140 398138
      393138 389143 387146 387150 386154 384159 381175 380180
      379183 372182 366179 359179 350181 346186 344192 346199
      347201 349199 348194 349190 351188 356188 361190 371195
      394207 396205 395203 393198 390194 389190 390186 393178
      399176 406178 410178 412177 415173 418169 421164 422156
      424135 425130 426127 430121 434119 438115 443101
 0.01 230011 239018 246020 253024 259027 263030 267031 284036
      297040 303043 306045 310045 314047 319048 329049 332048
      337048 344046 349042 353038 359032 364030 369028 374029
      377031 378037 379041 376044 372046 369046 365047 362047
      356050 358055 362056 364055 373053 380058 382061 382066
      378067 375064 369065 371070 374078 376082 378083 383077
      385075 387075 390078 393080 397080 401074 405073 407075
      413074 418062 415054 409049 407045 408040 412031 418020
      424004 427994 428991 426987 424982 424978 421975 417975
      394961 387957 380954 375953 372951 364949 352952 345955
      340959 336961 334964 329970 323975 319976 314977 299979
      294981 287984 272990 268991 264991 253991 248991 242990
      236989 231990
 0.01 345180 344176 344171 343166 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 341174 341177 341182 345180 345180
 0.01 305078 305072 303065 300063 297060 294060 287060 281061
      268060 263059 259063 256067 256074 259078 264082 273088
      284093 290094 295092 300089 303085 305078
 0.01 291826 287818 286814 284808 278804 270800 267799 261799
      256801 252803 249806 250812 252816 255819 263821 270825
      278828 289827 291826
 0.25 546920 544899 542875 539848 536838 533827 528812 525805
      522802 519802 514802 512797 509789 506778 504764 500747
      498738 495728 488709 480691 476685 473680 469679 468681
      466689 465700 466712 468722 470736 469745 468753 467762
      467768 468771 472780 477787 484806 486812 489820 490833
      489843 485863 484869 484874 479873 471873 466876 461872
      455876 449882 443886 437891 436895 436899 441913 445921
      451925 454926 457925 463919 472904 481894 486890 488887
      488882 490878 492883 495891 498901 502911 503914 502920
      501928 500939 501944 503947 510946 517944 520941 524940
      531939 537937 541933 544926 546920
 0.25 531202 529191 526182 520173 514166 508165 503164 500165
      497168 496173 496177 500185 505194 507197 512199 520204
      526205 529204 531202
 0.25 536083 536076 534071 530063 524055 518050 510046 508045
      509050 513059 516069 521077 526084 530087 533087 535085
      536083
 0.25 503236 504230 503225 501217 496210 490208 483209 477212
      475214 476217 482219 488221 491223 493228 496234 500236
      503236
 0.25 441745 440743 439742 437742 435742 433740 432741 432742
      431745 431746 431747 431750 431752 433754 433755 435755
      437753 438751 438750 440748 441745 441745
 0.25 392764 392761 390760 384761 372762 362761 356760 352759
      344765 335771 328777 325781 320783 316785 313789 313797
      314805 318813 327819 335822 342822 347820 353813 359803
      361799 364796 369793 375790 378788 381784 387774 392764
 0.25 375191 374190 374188 373187 371186 370185 368184 366184
      365184 364186 366187 367188 368190 369190 371191 372192
      374192 375191
 0.25 375988 376983 376979 373974 364964 360962 356962 354964
      347976 345981 341986 336990 330988 316987 303992 290993
      283993 277995 272998 269003 267005 269007 274011 279012
      287013 300013 314015 321016 327016 338012 343011 349013
      355014 360012 365007 369001 371994 375988
 0.25 267013 267011 265010 265011 263011 262012 261013 261014
      262015 263015 265015 267013 267013
 0.50 539917 540910 540903 539887 538872 535856 532846 528837
      525837 524840 522835 517824 511820 507810 505796 503788
      502780 501769 498757 496750 495742 491729 483711 478700
      476702 475707 476720 476732 475746 474760 475767 477771
      482780 490801 494810 497820 499830 499838 497852 496857
      497862 502870 507880 513888 516914 518920 521924 524927
      529926 536923 539917
 0.50 521191 520188 519185 517182 515179 514176 512174 510172
      507171 505171 504176 505179 507182 509185 510187 513189
      515191 518192 521191
 0.50 462898 463895 463893 461892 460893 458895 458896 457898
      456899 456901 455903 455906 456908 457908 458908 459908
      459905 460904 460903 461900 462900 462898
 0.50 367780 367775 365773 360769 355772 350777 338782 332785
      324787 317789 315792 315796 316804 320810 324814 330817
      336819 340818 343816 348813 353807 359796 365784 367780
 0.50 299002 297998 293997 288995 284994 280995 277997 275003
      278006 284007 287008 291006 295004 298003 299002
 1.00 497776 497771 496766 495758 493751 490744 488737 486735
      483735 481741 481751 482761 485768 488774 492777 495778
      497776
 1.00 352793 351791 346790 337791 328792 321793 319795 318800
      319805 321808 326813 333815 340814 345809 349804 351795
      352793
 1.50 346803 345796 341795 337795 332795 326796 323798 322804
      322806 324810 328812 332813 336813 341811 344807 345805
      346803
 2.00 344803 343800 341798 337797 334798 330799 328801 327803
      326806 326808 328809 331811 333811 337811 339810 342808
      343805 344803
 3.00 337806 337804 336803 335804 334804 334806 335807 336807
      337806

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 281417
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...VALID 15Z SAT MAY 28 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S FLO 20 NW SUT 10 WSW SUT 10 S MYR 40 SSW MYR 35 E CHS
10 SSE CHS 20 E NBC HXD 15 W HXD 25 NW NBC 20 S OGB 25 SSE SSC
20 S FLO.


1500 UTC UPDATE

SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO ADD A SEE TEXT OVER SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHWEST MS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST LA FROM THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAUSED BY YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.  THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA.  WHILE FFG
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS---SLOW MOVING CELLS
COULD PRODUCE SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+...WITH RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

COASTAL SC/EXTREME SRN NC COAST...
THE APPROACH OF TD#2 WILL BRING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PARTS OF THE SC AND EXTREME SRN NC COAST PRIMARILY LATE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT IS EMBDD WITHIN A
PLUME OF 1.75 TO 2+" PWS.  SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PSBL AS
SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST..BUT AS OF NOW...TIMING SUGGESTS AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SC AND SRN NC
COASTS BY SUN MRNG. BOTH THE 00Z WRF ARW AND WRF NMM SUGGEST ISOLD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 5 INCHES...THOUGH THE NSSL WRF IS ALIGNED WITH
THE SLOWER NAM CONEST IN KEEPING LOWER TOTALS AND THUS WARRANTING
ONLY A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.   SEE THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS
FROM THIS STORM FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SRN TX...
MODELS SHOW RETURN FLOW SURGE DVLPG OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SAT/SAT EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION..PSBL MCS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT ACRS NRN
MEX.  MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST HERE BOTH IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
BUT ALL GENLY TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CNVTV
THREAT ACRS THIS AREA.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
PSBL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN LATER DATA TRENDS.

SULLIVAN




$$






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