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000
FOUS30 KWBC 061340
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 15Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 060934
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AN IMPRESSIVE MID WINTER SHORTWAVE DIGS TO A LOW LATITUDE...WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF
FL/GA/SC...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO STRONG ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY DAY 2...AND THE QPF INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE INCORPORATED
WHAT LITTLE TREND WAS OBSERVED TO THE QPF CONSENSUS ON THE 18-00Z
CYCLES...MAINLY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF EACH ISOHYET BY ABOUT 30
MILES...CATCHING MORE OF SE GA WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM DID APPEAR TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AT AN EARLIER LEAD TIME...WHICH CAUSED ITS
DAY ONE OUTPUT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SE GA INTO
COASTAL SC. WHILE THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MANUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE NAM...BEING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS...THE
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL...AND THE NAM CONUS NEST.

MEANWHILE...DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA A REMNANT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST AND LIFTS UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...A SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM FROM
WEST OF NAPLES...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE
INTENSE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE AREA BEING NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SEEMED OVERDONE FOR MAGNITUDES GIVEN THE EVENT WILL
BE QUICKLY EVOLVING...BUT THERE WAS GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT TO THE
QPF FROM THE ECMWF...WRF-NMM...AND NAM CONUS NEST. THESE WERE
BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY.


...NORTHERN U.S. FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN  NEW ENGLAND...

A SHARPLY DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WATCHES WERE IN
EFFECT. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALSO GRAZE THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WORKING WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THERE IS AGREEABLE MODEL SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 0.10 INCH LIQUID FROM NORTHERN ND ACROSS NORTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN NY AND MAINE. THE SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS
PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC...SUCH THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UP AROUND
BOTTINEAU AND NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE INCORPORATED SOME ASPECTS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN TO DEFINE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND EACH CATEGORY UP TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE. THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
DOWNSCALED QPF TECHNIQUES WERE ALSO HELPFUL...AND LINED UP SUCH AS
TO INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE.


...NORTHWEST / NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE SHARP WAVE PASSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY...BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PAINT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECASTS AND OBSERVED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST DATABASE ARE WELL ALIGNED.
WE STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES...INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NDFD FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP TOWARD
HAVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
SURROUNDED BY SUCH DRY AIR...HOWEVER...THAT WIDESPREAD RADAR
ECHOES APPARENTLY REPRESENTED MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
IN OK/TX HAD REGISTERED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS OF 09Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...ACROSS EASTERN TX. A SECOND SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM OFFSHORE IN THE GULF...WHILE MOST AREAS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS THE TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES TO OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE
THE QPF. SINCE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW...REFER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


EAST COAST...

THE 06/00Z MODEL RUNS BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
THAT THEY MADE DURING THE 05/12Z PRODUCTION CYCLE.  AT FIRST...THE
REACTION WAS NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF A MOVE AWAY FROM THE 05/12Z
ECMWF AND THE 06/00Z NAM WHICH CLUSTERED WELL.  THE CORRESPONDING
RUNS OF THE GFS AND UKMET WERE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE
ECMWF/NAM...CONSEQUENTLY THEY TENDED TO MOVE THE FIRST WAVE OUT TO
SEA MORE QUICKLY.  THE QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE
A SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE EVENT THE FIRST WAVE WAS BLOCKING ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION OR WHETHER THE FIRST WAVE WOULD BE OUT OF THE
WAY IN TIME TO ALLOW MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SECOND WAVE.  SINCE
THE OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN...WE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
WPC FORECAST.  WITH THE MODELS HAVING A RATHER DIFFICULT TIME IN
HANDLING THE WAY THE MASS FIELDS INTERACT...IT FOLLOWS THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING QPF WAS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532203 533193 532185 528172 525165 522160 519156 514152
      505145 494138 486129 482125 477124 474122 476115 474108
      470105 468103 466104 465110 462094 460089 458083 450073
      446068 442067 437068 432073 436078 442080 447083 451088
      455093 457097 457101 455100 452095 447094 440095 436095
      433092 429090 427088 426089 428092 429098 430102 428105
      426107 427108 430110 429115 432118 436114 442117 445121
      446123 449124 452119 456116 461114 463114 463119 462121
      463124 462128 460131 458134 458140 456146 455154 460157
      468164 481163 490172 493176 496183 505191 514198 524206
      529206 532203
 0.01 545987 539956 536947 533942 529936 514889 501860 495847
      492841 489833 489827 490823 493815 496803 498795 499786
      499777 496772 495765 498751 499741 495733 495714 497695
      502688 506672 501639 491626 483636 472657 459685 452698
      448712 447720 446726 435753 435761 434769 430781 425795
      423801 427798 440776 444771 447766 451760 453758 454760
      453764 447792 445799 442804 440811 441814 444817 451826
      451831 450834 450839 449843 440852 437858 437863 438866
      442866 444864 447864 447867 444874 444882 445890 448898
      452911 455917 458923 459925 462927 466931 465935 461941
      457947 457955 455962 458968 465979 467982 467987 468997
      468006 469014 477042 479049 481057 485073 490101 495115
      497118 500119 505114 508110 513098 514081 514063 516050
      525034 529030 532024 535019 540011 542003 545987
 0.01 516262 518249 517243 514238 505221 501212 495205 492203
      487201 481206 474209 465211 463213 458214 454218 459226
      467223 475221 484223 489225 492228 496237 498243 495245
      489239 485238 482241 478230 473234 472236 475242 480248
      485256 486262 484266 481269 477271 464278 460287 457302
      458307 461310 469315 477315 484311 490307 498302 503296
      507288 510282 512274 516262
 0.01 482095 482092 483090 481090 479092 481095 480097 482097
      482095
 0.01 452168 452166 450163 449160 448157 446155 445152 443149
      441149 439151 438153 437156 441157 442159 444162 445165
      448165 450168 452168
 0.01 429248 428241 423238 417237 412239 408241 405246 404252
      407256 413256 417254 422251 427249 429248
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 441043 443045
      443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 440060 441055 438050 436045 434042 431040 429042 427046
      428051 432054 433057 436062 439062 440060
 0.01 426060 426058 425058 425060 426061 426060
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 406058 405058 404056 402055 402056 404058 405058 406058
 0.01 358752 357739 356734 352731 344727 335725 327727 323729
      317730 313732 310735 303742 288752 273762 258773 253779
      248786 244794 242797 241803 239807 236811 233820 230826
      227834 227840 230840 239837 241842 244843 248843 252840
      256841 259846 262854 253868 250875 246885 245889 245895
      249901 252906 253914 254923 255934 257938 257945 260954
      265962 268964 274964 285964 294960 299954 303952 309952
      317955 334963 339963 342961 341954 340949 336940 332936
      329934 323930 314926 308920 301915 291901 289897 287891
      286885 285879 284868 281859 279854 279848 276843 273840
      266835 265831 269829 275828 280825 284824 287827 305830
      307833 311833 318826 327823 332822 336820 340818 345814
      350809 352800 355789 356779 358766 358758 358752
 0.01 457130 456132 455133 454132 454130 455130 456129 457130
 0.25 534000 534994 533987 528979 526976 523970 522966 522962
      523955 522948 518938 514929 512926 509925 508926 509929
      506929 507936 508942 510950 507948 504950 501949 497947
      497952 498957 502967 506975 511983 517990 522997 527005
      529006 532005 534000
 0.25 502278 503273 502270 498268 497276 494280 490284 485287
      481291 482295 485296 491297 495293 498288 501280 502278
 0.25 506006 505001 502994 499988 496982 492979 487981 485987
      485997 487003 491008 495010 501013 505012 506009 506006
 0.25 489142 489139 489138 488136 487135 486134 484136 485137
      486139 487140 488142 489142
 0.25 475845 473844 472843 471843 469843 469846 470847 471846
      473847 475845 475845
 0.25 350744 347743 342744 338746 334745 322743 319741 315742
      309747 304752 298757 275774 263784 253794 249800 245807
      239820 238825 240828 244827 247825 253821 261818 266813
      273810 280807 284805 289805 300813 308814 315816 319817
      323818 330814 336809 340803 344796 346788 345765 345759
      347754 350744
 0.25 328949 327947 327946 326945 325944 324943 323942 322941
      321941 319940 317939 316941 317943 317944 319945 321947
      322947 323948 325949 327950 328949
 0.25 282941 281932 279923 278914 275907 271900 269898 266897
      264900 263905 264913 267921 270929 272935 273940 276942
      280943 282941
 0.50 342755 334755 328759 316771 314773 309774 308772 309769
      310766 315759 315755 315749 313747 310749 305756 294766
      289771 282776 275780 269785 258795 251809 246815 245819
      248821 260812 266807 274803 284794 289792 292793 296794
      299798 300804 301808 306809 312807 317807 320810 324811
      328810 334804 338799 341790 339766 341759 342755
 0.50 270909 270908 269909 270909 270909
 1.00 332776 332770 329767 322772 316779 311784 304791 302793
      303797 304804 309804 316800 324795 329788 332778 332776
 1.50 327781 326777 323776 321778 319780 316784 313787 311790
      308794 308799 312799 315796 319793 321791 324788 327783
      327781
 2.00 315792 315791 315792 315792

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 534193 533184 529178 520165 515158 511153 509150 505149
      499149 491146 489147 490152 492155 495157 498159 498163
      493167 491168 492171 498175 505177 509177 511179 515186
      524200 526202 530204 532201 534195 534193
 0.01 520258 520252 517247 514243 512239 509227 507224 503220
      497213 488210 485215 484222 485225 483226 479226 472234
      469243 474245 477246 478249 476255 473259 467266 463274
      465279 468283 472285 476289 481291 485290 489291 493290
      501286 508280 513273 515266 518261 520258
 0.01 528952 525930 525926 526923 526917 526900 522879 519865
      516853 512833 510827 510822 504811 495797 492793 489792
      484783 483780 481777 475771 461765 458763 453764 450767
      449773 449779 448785 442788 436793 426795 408802 394809
      389810 384813 377818 365827 362829 360832 355841 350848
      349852 349859 350864 352867 355870 358872 357880 357886
      360890 370889 377885 391877 403865 407866 409868 410871
      410873 406876 401884 397891 396897 396902 396915 398919
      398926 402933 411946 424958 429964 436968 449978 455983
      457985 460989 467994 470996 471999 471003 469008 468012
      469017 469021 474029 484030 492031 498028 502025 504021
      510014 513004 515994 522973 526961 528952
 0.01 507685 505669 503655 498643 492637 484635 479637 477641
      468661 463669 459679 455688 454700 453705 454714 453719
      454725 458727 464725 471718 476711 482703 485700 488699
      490700 493702 499701 505694 507685
 0.01 488136 487136 486133 484132 483132 481132 479131 478131
      476129 474128 473128 474131 476132 478132 479133 481133
      482133 484136 486136 487137 488136
 0.01 438859 438856 436855 434857 433857 431859 431860 429860
      428862 429864 431866 433866 434864 435863 436861 438859
 0.01 417693 416686 413680 409676 405674 400673 392676 381674
      371674 365673 357675 351677 347680 338687 330695 320702
      302716 292721 281727 274733 269737 265742 259749 252759
      248767 247772 249775 251776 257775 260774 262772 267769
      268767 272767 278768 283773 290779 293782 296788 299792
      305794 308797 315800 320802 325803 335804 342804 347801
      352798 355795 360783 361769 367759 370754 375752 386747
      395740 404732 410722 412717 414710 416701 417693
 0.25 511257 511250 508245 505244 503246 498247 493248 490252
      487259 485264 486268 489270 493269 497268 501264 506261
      509262 511260 511257
 0.25 493939 493933 492926 491914 491900 491886 489874 488869
      486864 481858 475854 473856 472861 472868 470873 466893
      463902 462905 461913 462924 466932 470941 474948 480952
      484952 487951 491945 493939
 0.25 474825 472816 469809 466806 462805 456806 449809 446811
      447817 452821 455822 458825 459828 462830 469833 473830
      474825
 0.25 402701 402696 400693 397690 392690 378685 372683 363682
      354686 348690 336701 325713 315725 311730 304736 296739
      289743 284748 285753 287757 296771 305782 310788 317792
      323795 332796 339795 344792 346789 349782 352773 355766
      360759 365753 372747 393725 397719 400714 402708 402701
 0.50 398709 398699 395697 392696 385696 377694 367689 359689
      351693 340702 331712 323722 314734 306744 303750 301757
      301762 302766 306772 310778 314783 319787 325790 333791
      341788 344782 347775 353762 357757 361751 366746 371742
      382733 387728 391723 395716 398709
 1.00 393711 391706 383707 379710 376710 374707 370704 364703
      353700 347703 343707 335714 327724 321733 315743 311755
      310762 313768 319778 324782 329784 335783 340779 351758
      357748 364740 368736 375734 380731 384726 390718 393711
 1.50 387717 386714 384714 379716 374719 370720 367719 359714
      351711 345712 341715 334721 328730 323739 319748 317760
      318766 320771 323774 326777 332778 335778 339775 343770
      352751 357742 359738 363733 367731 370730 373731 376730
      380727 385721 387717
 2.00 356732 356728 355724 350721 345720 340724 332732 326742
      324747 323754 321760 322764 324769 327772 332774 337773
      342768 347758 352746 355735 356732
 3.00 345752 345745 343741 338741 335743 332748 331752 330757
      328760 328766 331768 336768 340764 341762 344757 345752
      345752

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 512037 511032 508027 505022 501020 495020 491017 488012
      485009 482004 478002 476001 473999 472999 470001 473011
      479019 486027 487033 491036 495038 500040 510040 512037
 0.01 504860 503842 502826 495815 493812 493807 492798 486786
      484781 481777 478772 475768 471764 467761 452750 446748
      442745 440742 441739 444735 447706 449700 453697 457694
      462689 464683 465678 463666 459648 457640 454634 450630
      446631 436634 425652 421657 415659 405663 399667 393670
      388673 384677 362688 356696 353699 347700 343699 341703
      334710 326719 319727 311735 304744 300747 298752 293761
      286780 283787 280792 277797 276802 276809 280812 290816
      298820 292828 286835 282839 283845 284853 287859 292870
      297880 301883 305885 309886 312884 323877 330872 337865
      340862 344864 348866 351872 354878 357883 361885 368885
      370885 372888 373906 375913 377916 378918 382918 386918
      389913 392911 396906 401901 411897 417896 421898 430906
      434910 438911 444914 448918 452920 455925 460932 462935
      466936 471937 480932 487922 490912 490894 495889 497883
      501870 504860
 0.01 361765 360760 358758 353758 350759 348762 343766 338771
      335776 329787 322799 321802 322805 326810 332813 337815
      341811 345805 356799 357797 355795 352795 351786 350782
      352780 357774 361765
 0.25 481864 473845 470835 469821 467810 461802 454797 446795
      430792 421790 412790 403791 397793 393796 388802 383803
      379805 374811 371815 366817 361825 360829 360832 365833
      368835 371838 375839 381840 385838 390831 392827 394825
      398822 402823 407824 410828 417832 423836 431838 443839
      450840 454840 458841 461845 462851 462878 464889 466895
      468898 472897 475893 478884 480873 481864
 0.25 451676 452668 451661 447655 443654 440654 437656 432659
      425664 416669 405675 394681 391684 387688 383697 379700
      375701 356706 348712 340720 333728 328736 317752 312762
      309766 305769 303773 302777 303785 306790 310790 314787
      321780 334765 347751 359735 365733 368729 379729 387732
      398733 404733 409730 416724 424718 428714 431710 437700
      443692 448684 451676
 0.50 442672 441668 439666 434667 431669 418675 405682 399686
      395690 391696 390703 389712 391717 394719 400718 406717
      413713 417709 423705 427700 436689 439683 441676 442672
 0.50 359720 359716 357714 350718 345721 340727 335732 331739
      328746 326753 322759 318765 314770 313774 314779 316779
      319776 323771 326764 327761 330759 337756 341750 350738
      358725 359720

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 060852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AN IMPRESSIVE MID WINTER SHORTWAVE DIGS TO A LOW LATITUDE...WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF
FL/GA/SC...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO STRONG ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY DAY 2...AND THE QPF INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE INCORPORATED
WHAT LITTLE TREND WAS OBSERVED TO THE QPF CONSENSUS ON THE 18-00Z
CYCLES...MAINLY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF EACH ISOHYET BY ABOUT 30
MILES...CATCHING MORE OF SE GA WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM DID APPEAR TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AT AN EARLIER LEAD TIME...WHICH CAUSED ITS
DAY ONE OUTPUT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SE GA INTO
COASTAL SC. WHILE THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MANUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE NAM...BEING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS...THE
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL...AND THE NAM CONUS NEST.

MEANWHILE...DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA A REMNANT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST AND LIFTS UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...A SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM FROM
WEST OF NAPLES...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE
INTENSE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE AREA BEING NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SEEMED OVERDONE FOR MAGNITUDES GIVEN THE EVENT WILL
BE QUICKLY EVOLVING...BUT THERE WAS GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT TO THE
QPF FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST.
THESE WERE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...NORTHERN U.S. FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN  NEW ENGLAND...

A SHARPLY DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WATCHES WERE IN
EFFECT. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALSO GRAZE THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WORKING WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THERE IS AGREEABLE MODEL SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 0.10 INCH LIQUID FROM NORTHERN ND ACROSS NORTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN NY AND MAINE. THE SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS
PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC...SUCH THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UP AROUND
BOTTINEAU AND NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE INCORPORATED SOME ASPECTS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN TO DEFINE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND EACH CATEGORY UP TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE. THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
DOWNSCALED QPF TECHNIQUES WERE ALSO HELPFUL...AND LINED UP SUCH AS
TO INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE.


...NORTHWEST / NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE SHARP WAVE PASSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY...BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PAINT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECASTS AND OBSERVED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST DATABASE ARE WELL ALIGNED.
WE STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES...INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NDFD FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP TOWARD
HAVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
SURROUNDED BY SUCH DRY AIR...HOWEVER...THAT WIDESPREAD RADAR
ECHOES APPARENTLY REPRESENTED MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
IN OK/TX HAD REGISTERED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS OF 06Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...ACROSS EASTERN TX. A SECOND SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM OFFSHORE IN THE GULF...WHILE MOST AREAS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS THE TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES TO OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE
THE QPF. SINCE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW...REFER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


EAST COAST...

THE 06/00Z MODEL RUNS BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
THAT THEY MADE DURING THE 05/12Z PRODUCTION CYCLE.  AT FIRST...THE
REACTION WAS NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF A MOVE AWAY FROM THE 05/12Z
ECMWF AND THE 06/00Z NAM WHICH CLUSTERED WELL.  THE CORRESPONDING
RUNS OF THE GFS AND UKMET WERE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE
ECMWF/NAM...CONSEQUENTLY THEY TENDED TO MOVE THE FIRST WAVE OUT TO
SEA MORE QUICKLY.  THE QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE
A SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE EVENT THE FIRST WAVE WAS BLOCKING ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION OR WHETHER THE FIRST WAVE WOULD BE OUT OF THE
WAY IN TIME TO ALLOW MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SECOND WAVE.  SINCE
THE OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN...WE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
WPC FORECAST.  WITH THE MODELS HAVING A RATHER DIFFICULT TIME IN
HANDLING THE WAY THE MASS FIELDS INTERACT...IT FOLLOWS THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING QPF WAS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN


24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532203 533193 532185 528172 525165 521160 514152 505145
      494138 486129 482125 477124 474122 476115 476111 475108
      470105 468103 466105 464111 464101 462094 460089 458084
      450073 446068 442067 436068 432073 436078 442080 446083
      450088 455093 458099 456102 455099 452095 447094 440095
      434094 430089 428106 429116 432118 436114 441117 445121
      446124 449124 452119 456116 461114 463113 463118 462121
      463124 455132 458132 458137 456146 455154 460157 464161
      470165 481163 490172 493176 496183 501188 505191 514198
      524206 529206 532203
 0.01 545987 539957 534944 530937 527929 518899 506872 495847
      489835 489830 490825 493816 497800 498793 499783 498775
      495768 496761 498755 499748 500744 500739 498732 494727
      493720 495712 496706 497701 497696 498691 501690 505686
      509681 511674 510666 507656 501640 494629 492625 490623
      489626 481637 477643 475649 465672 462681 458687 452698
      448712 448719 446725 440740 437746 435753 434769 430785
      426791 425796 424801 427798 433787 441777 445773 448767
      450760 451756 454754 449784 440813 448821 451826 451831
      450834 450839 448843 444848 440851 437858 436863 438866
      442866 444864 447864 447867 445872 444876 444882 445890
      450906 455918 462927 466931 467932 465935 457946 455963
      458968 462974 465979 467983 467987 468996 468006 471021
      475034 483064 485068 485074 486083 489097 491103 493112
      496117 501118 508110 512103 514097 515059 515053 516047
      519042 523039 527033 533022 540011 545987
 0.01 516262 518249 517243 514238 505221 501212 496205 492203
      487201 483203 481206 474209 465211 463213 458214 454218
      459226 467223 474221 484223 489225 492228 496237 498242
      495245 489239 485238 482241 478231 473234 472237 475242
      480248 485256 486261 484266 481269 477271 464278 460287
      457302 458307 461310 464312 469315 473316 477314 484311
      490307 497302 503296 507288 510282 512274 516262
 0.01 482095 482092 483090 481090 479092 481095 480097 482097
      482095
 0.01 452168 452166 450163 449160 448157 446155 445152 443149
      441149 439151 438153 437156 441157 442159 444162 445165
      448165 450168 452168
 0.01 429248 428241 423238 417237 412239 408241 405246 404252
      407256 413256 417254 422251 427249 429248
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 441043 443045
      443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 426060 426058 425058 424060 425061 426061 426060
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 406058 405058 404056 402055 402056 404058 405058 406058
 0.01 357741 356734 353732 345728 340726 335726 331726 327727
      322729 317730 313732 310737 303743 295748 278758 263769
      251782 242797 228833 227837 228841 236837 242843 250839
      257834 260832 267831 285825 287827 293828 303827 306832
      308834 311833 316827 326824 331823 336820 340818 344815
      350809 353799 350787 353776 353764 357741
 0.01 343965 343960 342955 339947 337943 335939 329934 323930
      316926 304918 294906 290899 287890 286886 286880 285869
      282860 278854 274853 270852 267851 263853 258858 255864
      248879 246888 245892 245897 250902 252905 253911 255931
      257939 260947 264966 266968 270970 275968 281969 286968
      289966 294962 299956 303954 308955 323961 334967 343965
 0.25 534000 534994 533987 528979 526976 523970 522966 522962
      523955 522948 518938 514929 512926 509924 508926 509929
      506929 507936 508942 510950 507948 504950 501949 497947
      497952 498957 502967 506975 511983 517990 522996 527005
      529006 532005 534000
 0.25 502278 503273 502270 498268 497276 494280 490284 485287
      481291 482295 485296 491297 495293 498288 501280 502278
 0.25 506006 505001 502994 499988 496982 492979 487981 485987
      485997 487003 491008 495010 501013 505012 506009 506006
 0.25 489142 489139 489138 488136 487135 486134 484136 485137
      486139 487140 488142 489142
 0.25 475845 473844 472843 471843 469843 469846 470847 471846
      473847 475845 475845
 0.25 350744 347743 343744 338745 334745 329744 325746 321745
      318742 316741 313743 308749 304755 297760 284768 272777
      261786 251796 244809 240816 238824 239828 243828 249823
      262816 267812 276809 285806 290807 292809 297813 305814
      314815 321817 328815 334810 339804 341797 343788 343778
      344768 345759 350744
 0.25 324949 323947 321945 319943 317942 316941 314941 313943
      314945 316947 317947 317948 319949 320949 321950 323952
      324949
 0.25 282941 281931 279924 278914 275908 271900 269898 266897
      264900 263905 264913 267921 270929 272935 273940 276942
      280943 282941
 0.50 341757 339755 335755 328759 318770 311774 307774 305771
      311756 313749 311750 308753 304760 299766 288775 282779
      276783 263791 257795 254802 251809 246815 245819 247821
      253816 258813 264807 278801 284797 288797 292799 302810
      317809 324811 328810 331808 336802 338794 339785 339775
      338769 339763 341757
 1.00 332776 332770 329767 322772 316779 311784 304791 301798
      302802 305805 314801 321797 328791 330787 331783 332776
 1.50 327781 326778 324776 319780 316784 313788 310792 307799
      309801 313798 317795 321791 325786 327781
 2.00 315792 315791 315792 315792

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 534193 534188 533184 529178 520165 515158 511153 508150
      504149 499149 491146 489149 490152 492155 496157 498160
      498163 492167 491168 492171 499176 505177 509177 512180
      515186 524200 526203 530203 532201 534195 534193
 0.01 520258 521253 520251 516246 512239 509227 503220 496212
      488210 485212 485216 484223 485226 482226 479226 472234
      472238 470240 469243 475245 478247 478251 473259 466267
      463274 465280 468283 473286 476289 481291 486291 489291
      493290 502286 508280 513271 518261 520258
 0.01 528952 525925 526920 526911 526904 525898 522878 520870
      519865 518861 517857 516853 510830 510823 508818 506814
      503809 495797 489791 484783 482779 479775 474770 466768
      458763 452765 449773 448785 445787 442788 405803 389810
      377818 369824 363829 358835 356839 353843 350849 349852
      349858 350864 351866 355870 358872 357877 357885 359888
      362890 370889 379884 393875 403865 407867 410872 405878
      400885 397890 396896 396906 396913 397917 398926 400929
      400932 402933 413947 426960 428964 431964 436969 443973
      445976 449978 456984 462989 469995 471999 471003 470006
      468010 468014 469021 471024 474028 476029 484030 494031
      501026 506019 508016 511010 513003 515999 515993 522973
      526960 528952
 0.01 507685 505667 503655 498643 492637 488635 483635 479637
      477641 468661 465665 463670 459679 455688 455692 454695
      454700 453715 454725 456727 459726 465725 471718 473714
      476710 482703 486699 491701 494702 499701 505694 507685
 0.01 488136 487136 486133 484132 483132 481132 479131 478131
      476129 474128 473128 474131 476132 478132 479133 481133
      482133 484136 486136 487137 488136
 0.01 438859 438856 436855 434857 433857 431859 431860 429860
      428862 429864 431866 433866 434864 435863 436861 438859
 0.01 417693 416684 413679 408675 403673 390675 381674 368674
      362673 355676 351677 346681 338687 319703 302716 291721
      280728 272734 268738 265742 258750 251760 249764 247769
      248773 251776 259775 263772 267769 271767 275767 282772
      290779 294784 297790 306795 315800 320802 325803 337805
      344803 350800 357793 360783 362768 364762 368757 371754
      378751 386747 396739 401735 405730 411721 414710 416700
      417693
 0.25 511257 511250 508245 503246 498247 493248 490252 487259
      485264 486268 489270 493269 497268 501264 506261 509262
      511260 511257
 0.25 493939 493932 492925 491914 491899 491886 489874 486864
      480857 475854 472857 472862 472869 470873 466893 463903
      461907 461913 462925 466932 470942 474948 477951 481952
      487951 491945 493939
 0.25 474825 472816 469809 466806 462805 456806 449809 446812
      447817 452821 456822 458825 462830 469833 473830 474825
 0.25 402701 402694 399692 395690 391690 378685 371683 361683
      354686 348690 341696 335702 325713 314726 309732 304736
      294739 288744 284749 285754 287757 296771 305782 311788
      318793 324795 332796 341794 344792 347787 350780 352773
      356764 360758 365753 372747 393725 397719 400713 402706
      402701
 0.50 398709 398703 397698 394696 390697 383696 377694 371691
      365689 358690 351693 340702 331712 322724 314734 306745
      303751 301757 301763 303768 307774 310779 314783 320788
      326791 334791 341788 353762 357756 362751 366746 371742
      383732 391723 396715 398709
 1.00 393711 392706 390706 382708 377710 374707 369704 363703
      353700 347703 342708 335714 327725 321733 315744 311755
      310759 311763 313770 319778 324782 330784 336783 340779
      351758 358748 364740 369736 377733 384726 390718 393711
 1.50 387717 386713 383714 378717 372720 367719 363717 359713
      351711 345712 340715 334721 328731 323739 319749 317760
      318766 320771 323775 326777 332778 336777 340774 343770
      352751 357742 360737 363733 368731 371730 373731 380727
      385721 387717
 2.00 356732 356727 354724 350721 344721 340724 332732 326742
      324748 323754 321761 324769 327773 332774 337772 342768
      347758 352746 355735 356732
 3.00 345752 345745 343741 338741 335743 332748 331752 330757
      328760 328766 331768 336768 340764 341762 344757 345752
      345752

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 512037 511032 508027 505022 501020 495020 491017 488012
      485009 482004 478002 476001 473999 472999 470001 473011
      479019 486027 487033 491036 495038 500040 510040 512037
 0.01 504860 503842 502826 495815 493812 493807 492798 486786
      484781 481777 478772 475768 471764 467761 452750 446748
      442745 440742 441739 444735 447706 449700 453697 457694
      462689 464683 465678 463666 459648 457640 454634 450630
      446631 436634 425652 421657 415659 405663 399667 393670
      388673 384677 362688 356696 353699 347700 343699 341703
      334710 326719 319727 311735 304744 300747 298752 293761
      286780 283787 280792 277797 276802 276809 280812 290816
      298820 292828 286835 282839 283845 284853 287859 292870
      297880 301883 305885 309886 312884 323877 330872 337865
      340862 344864 348866 351872 354878 357883 361885 368885
      370885 372888 373906 375913 377916 378918 382918 386918
      389913 392911 396906 401901 411897 417896 421898 430906
      434910 438911 444914 448918 452920 455925 460932 462935
      466936 471937 480932 487922 490912 490894 495889 497883
      501870 504860
 0.01 361765 360760 358758 353758 350759 348762 343766 338771
      335776 329787 322799 321802 322805 326810 332813 337815
      341811 345805 356799 357797 355795 352795 351786 350782
      352780 357774 361765
 0.25 481864 473845 470835 469821 467810 461802 454797 446795
      430792 421790 412790 403791 397793 393796 388802 383803
      379805 374811 371815 366817 361825 360829 360832 365833
      368835 371838 375839 381840 385838 390831 392827 394825
      398822 402823 407824 410828 417832 423836 431838 443839
      450840 454840 458841 461845 462851 462878 464889 466895
      468898 472897 475893 478884 480873 481864
 0.25 451676 452668 451661 447655 443654 440654 437656 432659
      425664 416669 405675 394681 391684 387688 383697 379700
      375701 356706 348712 340720 333728 328736 317752 312762
      309766 305769 303773 302777 303785 306790 310790 314787
      321780 334765 347751 359735 365733 368729 379729 387732
      398733 404733 409730 416724 424718 428714 431710 437700
      443692 448684 451676
 0.50 442672 441668 439666 434667 431669 418675 405682 399686
      395690 391696 390703 389712 391717 394719 400718 406717
      413713 417709 423705 427700 436689 439683 441676 442672
 0.50 359720 359716 357714 350718 345721 340727 335732 331739
      328746 326753 322759 318765 314770 313774 314779 316779
      319776 323771 326764 327761 330759 337756 341750 350738
      358725 359720

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 060852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AN IMPRESSIVE MID WINTER SHORTWAVE DIGS TO A LOW LATITUDE...WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF
FL/GA/SC...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO STRONG ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY DAY 2...AND THE QPF INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE INCORPORATED
WHAT LITTLE TREND WAS OBSERVED TO THE QPF CONSENSUS ON THE 18-00Z
CYCLES...MAINLY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF EACH ISOHYET BY ABOUT 30
MILES...CATCHING MORE OF SE GA WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM DID APPEAR TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AT AN EARLIER LEAD TIME...WHICH CAUSED ITS
DAY ONE OUTPUT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SE GA INTO
COASTAL SC. WHILE THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MANUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE NAM...BEING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS...THE
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL...AND THE NAM CONUS NEST.

MEANWHILE...DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA A REMNANT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST AND LIFTS UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...A SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM FROM
WEST OF NAPLES...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE
INTENSE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE AREA BEING NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SEEMED OVERDONE FOR MAGNITUDES GIVEN THE EVENT WILL
BE QUICKLY EVOLVING...BUT THERE WAS GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT TO THE
QPF FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST.
THESE WERE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...NORTHERN U.S. FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN  NEW ENGLAND...

A SHARPLY DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WATCHES WERE IN
EFFECT. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALSO GRAZE THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WORKING WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THERE IS AGREEABLE MODEL SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 0.10 INCH LIQUID FROM NORTHERN ND ACROSS NORTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN NY AND MAINE. THE SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS
PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC...SUCH THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UP AROUND
BOTTINEAU AND NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE INCORPORATED SOME ASPECTS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN TO DEFINE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND EACH CATEGORY UP TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE. THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
DOWNSCALED QPF TECHNIQUES WERE ALSO HELPFUL...AND LINED UP SUCH AS
TO INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE.


...NORTHWEST / NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE SHARP WAVE PASSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY...BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PAINT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECASTS AND OBSERVED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST DATABASE ARE WELL ALIGNED.
WE STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES...INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NDFD FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP TOWARD
HAVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
SURROUNDED BY SUCH DRY AIR...HOWEVER...THAT WIDESPREAD RADAR
ECHOES APPARENTLY REPRESENTED MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
IN OK/TX HAD REGISTERED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS OF 06Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...ACROSS EASTERN TX. A SECOND SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM OFFSHORE IN THE GULF...WHILE MOST AREAS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS THE TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES TO OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE
THE QPF. SINCE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW...REFER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


EAST COAST...

THE 06/00Z MODEL RUNS BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
THAT THEY MADE DURING THE 05/12Z PRODUCTION CYCLE.  AT FIRST...THE
REACTION WAS NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF A MOVE AWAY FROM THE 05/12Z
ECMWF AND THE 06/00Z NAM WHICH CLUSTERED WELL.  THE CORRESPONDING
RUNS OF THE GFS AND UKMET WERE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE
ECMWF/NAM...CONSEQUENTLY THEY TENDED TO MOVE THE FIRST WAVE OUT TO
SEA MORE QUICKLY.  THE QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE
A SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE EVENT THE FIRST WAVE WAS BLOCKING ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION OR WHETHER THE FIRST WAVE WOULD BE OUT OF THE
WAY IN TIME TO ALLOW MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SECOND WAVE.  SINCE
THE OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN...WE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
WPC FORECAST.  WITH THE MODELS HAVING A RATHER DIFFICULT TIME IN
HANDLING THE WAY THE MASS FIELDS INTERACT...IT FOLLOWS THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING QPF WAS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN


24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532203 533193 532185 528172 525165 521160 514152 505145
      494138 486129 482125 477124 474122 476115 476111 475108
      470105 468103 466105 464111 464101 462094 460089 458084
      450073 446068 442067 436068 432073 436078 442080 446083
      450088 455093 458099 456102 455099 452095 447094 440095
      434094 430089 428106 429116 432118 436114 441117 445121
      446124 449124 452119 456116 461114 463113 463118 462121
      463124 455132 458132 458137 456146 455154 460157 464161
      470165 481163 490172 493176 496183 501188 505191 514198
      524206 529206 532203
 0.01 545987 539957 534944 530937 527929 518899 506872 495847
      489835 489830 490825 493816 497800 498793 499783 498775
      495768 496761 498755 499748 500744 500739 498732 494727
      493720 495712 496706 497701 497696 498691 501690 505686
      509681 511674 510666 507656 501640 494629 492625 490623
      489626 481637 477643 475649 465672 462681 458687 452698
      448712 448719 446725 440740 437746 435753 434769 430785
      426791 425796 424801 427798 433787 441777 445773 448767
      450760 451756 454754 449784 440813 448821 451826 451831
      450834 450839 448843 444848 440851 437858 436863 438866
      442866 444864 447864 447867 445872 444876 444882 445890
      450906 455918 462927 466931 467932 465935 457946 455963
      458968 462974 465979 467983 467987 468996 468006 471021
      475034 483064 485068 485074 486083 489097 491103 493112
      496117 501118 508110 512103 514097 515059 515053 516047
      519042 523039 527033 533022 540011 545987
 0.01 516262 518249 517243 514238 505221 501212 496205 492203
      487201 483203 481206 474209 465211 463213 458214 454218
      459226 467223 474221 484223 489225 492228 496237 498242
      495245 489239 485238 482241 478231 473234 472237 475242
      480248 485256 486261 484266 481269 477271 464278 460287
      457302 458307 461310 464312 469315 473316 477314 484311
      490307 497302 503296 507288 510282 512274 516262
 0.01 482095 482092 483090 481090 479092 481095 480097 482097
      482095
 0.01 452168 452166 450163 449160 448157 446155 445152 443149
      441149 439151 438153 437156 441157 442159 444162 445165
      448165 450168 452168
 0.01 429248 428241 423238 417237 412239 408241 405246 404252
      407256 413256 417254 422251 427249 429248
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 441043 443045
      443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 426060 426058 425058 424060 425061 426061 426060
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 406058 405058 404056 402055 402056 404058 405058 406058
 0.01 357741 356734 353732 345728 340726 335726 331726 327727
      322729 317730 313732 310737 303743 295748 278758 263769
      251782 242797 228833 227837 228841 236837 242843 250839
      257834 260832 267831 285825 287827 293828 303827 306832
      308834 311833 316827 326824 331823 336820 340818 344815
      350809 353799 350787 353776 353764 357741
 0.01 343965 343960 342955 339947 337943 335939 329934 323930
      316926 304918 294906 290899 287890 286886 286880 285869
      282860 278854 274853 270852 267851 263853 258858 255864
      248879 246888 245892 245897 250902 252905 253911 255931
      257939 260947 264966 266968 270970 275968 281969 286968
      289966 294962 299956 303954 308955 323961 334967 343965
 0.25 534000 534994 533987 528979 526976 523970 522966 522962
      523955 522948 518938 514929 512926 509924 508926 509929
      506929 507936 508942 510950 507948 504950 501949 497947
      497952 498957 502967 506975 511983 517990 522996 527005
      529006 532005 534000
 0.25 502278 503273 502270 498268 497276 494280 490284 485287
      481291 482295 485296 491297 495293 498288 501280 502278
 0.25 506006 505001 502994 499988 496982 492979 487981 485987
      485997 487003 491008 495010 501013 505012 506009 506006
 0.25 489142 489139 489138 488136 487135 486134 484136 485137
      486139 487140 488142 489142
 0.25 475845 473844 472843 471843 469843 469846 470847 471846
      473847 475845 475845
 0.25 350744 347743 343744 338745 334745 329744 325746 321745
      318742 316741 313743 308749 304755 297760 284768 272777
      261786 251796 244809 240816 238824 239828 243828 249823
      262816 267812 276809 285806 290807 292809 297813 305814
      314815 321817 328815 334810 339804 341797 343788 343778
      344768 345759 350744
 0.25 324949 323947 321945 319943 317942 316941 314941 313943
      314945 316947 317947 317948 319949 320949 321950 323952
      324949
 0.25 282941 281931 279924 278914 275908 271900 269898 266897
      264900 263905 264913 267921 270929 272935 273940 276942
      280943 282941
 0.50 341757 339755 335755 328759 318770 311774 307774 305771
      311756 313749 311750 308753 304760 299766 288775 282779
      276783 263791 257795 254802 251809 246815 245819 247821
      253816 258813 264807 278801 284797 288797 292799 302810
      317809 324811 328810 331808 336802 338794 339785 339775
      338769 339763 341757
 1.00 332776 332770 329767 322772 316779 311784 304791 301798
      302802 305805 314801 321797 328791 330787 331783 332776
 1.50 327781 326778 324776 319780 316784 313788 310792 307799
      309801 313798 317795 321791 325786 327781
 2.00 315792 315791 315792 315792

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 534193 534188 533184 529178 520165 515158 511153 508150
      504149 499149 491146 489149 490152 492155 496157 498160
      498163 492167 491168 492171 499176 505177 509177 512180
      515186 524200 526203 530203 532201 534195 534193
 0.01 520258 521253 520251 516246 512239 509227 503220 496212
      488210 485212 485216 484223 485226 482226 479226 472234
      472238 470240 469243 475245 478247 478251 473259 466267
      463274 465280 468283 473286 476289 481291 486291 489291
      493290 502286 508280 513271 518261 520258
 0.01 528952 525925 526920 526911 526904 525898 522878 520870
      519865 518861 517857 516853 510830 510823 508818 506814
      503809 495797 489791 484783 482779 479775 474770 466768
      458763 452765 449773 448785 445787 442788 405803 389810
      377818 369824 363829 358835 356839 353843 350849 349852
      349858 350864 351866 355870 358872 357877 357885 359888
      362890 370889 379884 393875 403865 407867 410872 405878
      400885 397890 396896 396906 396913 397917 398926 400929
      400932 402933 413947 426960 428964 431964 436969 443973
      445976 449978 456984 462989 469995 471999 471003 470006
      468010 468014 469021 471024 474028 476029 484030 494031
      501026 506019 508016 511010 513003 515999 515993 522973
      526960 528952
 0.01 507685 505667 503655 498643 492637 488635 483635 479637
      477641 468661 465665 463670 459679 455688 455692 454695
      454700 453715 454725 456727 459726 465725 471718 473714
      476710 482703 486699 491701 494702 499701 505694 507685
 0.01 488136 487136 486133 484132 483132 481132 479131 478131
      476129 474128 473128 474131 476132 478132 479133 481133
      482133 484136 486136 487137 488136
 0.01 438859 438856 436855 434857 433857 431859 431860 429860
      428862 429864 431866 433866 434864 435863 436861 438859
 0.01 417693 416684 413679 408675 403673 390675 381674 368674
      362673 355676 351677 346681 338687 319703 302716 291721
      280728 272734 268738 265742 258750 251760 249764 247769
      248773 251776 259775 263772 267769 271767 275767 282772
      290779 294784 297790 306795 315800 320802 325803 337805
      344803 350800 357793 360783 362768 364762 368757 371754
      378751 386747 396739 401735 405730 411721 414710 416700
      417693
 0.25 511257 511250 508245 503246 498247 493248 490252 487259
      485264 486268 489270 493269 497268 501264 506261 509262
      511260 511257
 0.25 493939 493932 492925 491914 491899 491886 489874 486864
      480857 475854 472857 472862 472869 470873 466893 463903
      461907 461913 462925 466932 470942 474948 477951 481952
      487951 491945 493939
 0.25 474825 472816 469809 466806 462805 456806 449809 446812
      447817 452821 456822 458825 462830 469833 473830 474825
 0.25 402701 402694 399692 395690 391690 378685 371683 361683
      354686 348690 341696 335702 325713 314726 309732 304736
      294739 288744 284749 285754 287757 296771 305782 311788
      318793 324795 332796 341794 344792 347787 350780 352773
      356764 360758 365753 372747 393725 397719 400713 402706
      402701
 0.50 398709 398703 397698 394696 390697 383696 377694 371691
      365689 358690 351693 340702 331712 322724 314734 306745
      303751 301757 301763 303768 307774 310779 314783 320788
      326791 334791 341788 353762 357756 362751 366746 371742
      383732 391723 396715 398709
 1.00 393711 392706 390706 382708 377710 374707 369704 363703
      353700 347703 342708 335714 327725 321733 315744 311755
      310759 311763 313770 319778 324782 330784 336783 340779
      351758 358748 364740 369736 377733 384726 390718 393711
 1.50 387717 386713 383714 378717 372720 367719 363717 359713
      351711 345712 340715 334721 328731 323739 319749 317760
      318766 320771 323775 326777 332778 336777 340774 343770
      352751 357742 360737 363733 368731 371730 373731 380727
      385721 387717
 2.00 356732 356727 354724 350721 344721 340724 332732 326742
      324748 323754 321761 324769 327773 332774 337772 342768
      347758 352746 355735 356732
 3.00 345752 345745 343741 338741 335743 332748 331752 330757
      328760 328766 331768 336768 340764 341762 344757 345752
      345752

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 512037 511032 508027 505022 501020 495020 491017 488012
      485009 482004 478002 476001 473999 472999 470001 473011
      479019 486027 487033 491036 495038 500040 510040 512037
 0.01 504860 503842 502826 495815 493812 493807 492798 486786
      484781 481777 478772 475768 471764 467761 452750 446748
      442745 440742 441739 444735 447706 449700 453697 457694
      462689 464683 465678 463666 459648 457640 454634 450630
      446631 436634 425652 421657 415659 405663 399667 393670
      388673 384677 362688 356696 353699 347700 343699 341703
      334710 326719 319727 311735 304744 300747 298752 293761
      286780 283787 280792 277797 276802 276809 280812 290816
      298820 292828 286835 282839 283845 284853 287859 292870
      297880 301883 305885 309886 312884 323877 330872 337865
      340862 344864 348866 351872 354878 357883 361885 368885
      370885 372888 373906 375913 377916 378918 382918 386918
      389913 392911 396906 401901 411897 417896 421898 430906
      434910 438911 444914 448918 452920 455925 460932 462935
      466936 471937 480932 487922 490912 490894 495889 497883
      501870 504860
 0.01 361765 360760 358758 353758 350759 348762 343766 338771
      335776 329787 322799 321802 322805 326810 332813 337815
      341811 345805 356799 357797 355795 352795 351786 350782
      352780 357774 361765
 0.25 481864 473845 470835 469821 467810 461802 454797 446795
      430792 421790 412790 403791 397793 393796 388802 383803
      379805 374811 371815 366817 361825 360829 360832 365833
      368835 371838 375839 381840 385838 390831 392827 394825
      398822 402823 407824 410828 417832 423836 431838 443839
      450840 454840 458841 461845 462851 462878 464889 466895
      468898 472897 475893 478884 480873 481864
 0.25 451676 452668 451661 447655 443654 440654 437656 432659
      425664 416669 405675 394681 391684 387688 383697 379700
      375701 356706 348712 340720 333728 328736 317752 312762
      309766 305769 303773 302777 303785 306790 310790 314787
      321780 334765 347751 359735 365733 368729 379729 387732
      398733 404733 409730 416724 424718 428714 431710 437700
      443692 448684 451676
 0.50 442672 441668 439666 434667 431669 418675 405682 399686
      395690 391696 390703 389712 391717 394719 400718 406717
      413713 417709 423705 427700 436689 439683 441676 442672
 0.50 359720 359716 357714 350718 345721 340727 335732 331739
      328746 326753 322759 318765 314770 313774 314779 316779
      319776 323771 326764 327761 330759 337756 341750 350738
      358725 359720

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 060852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AN IMPRESSIVE MID WINTER SHORTWAVE DIGS TO A LOW LATITUDE...WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF
FL/GA/SC...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO STRONG ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY DAY 2...AND THE QPF INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE INCORPORATED
WHAT LITTLE TREND WAS OBSERVED TO THE QPF CONSENSUS ON THE 18-00Z
CYCLES...MAINLY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF EACH ISOHYET BY ABOUT 30
MILES...CATCHING MORE OF SE GA WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM DID APPEAR TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AT AN EARLIER LEAD TIME...WHICH CAUSED ITS
DAY ONE OUTPUT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SE GA INTO
COASTAL SC. WHILE THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MANUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE NAM...BEING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS...THE
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL...AND THE NAM CONUS NEST.

MEANWHILE...DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA A REMNANT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST AND LIFTS UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...A SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM FROM
WEST OF NAPLES...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE
INTENSE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE AREA BEING NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SEEMED OVERDONE FOR MAGNITUDES GIVEN THE EVENT WILL
BE QUICKLY EVOLVING...BUT THERE WAS GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT TO THE
QPF FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST.
THESE WERE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...NORTHERN U.S. FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN  NEW ENGLAND...

A SHARPLY DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WATCHES WERE IN
EFFECT. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALSO GRAZE THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WORKING WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THERE IS AGREEABLE MODEL SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 0.10 INCH LIQUID FROM NORTHERN ND ACROSS NORTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN NY AND MAINE. THE SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS
PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC...SUCH THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UP AROUND
BOTTINEAU AND NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE INCORPORATED SOME ASPECTS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN TO DEFINE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND EACH CATEGORY UP TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE. THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
DOWNSCALED QPF TECHNIQUES WERE ALSO HELPFUL...AND LINED UP SUCH AS
TO INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE.


...NORTHWEST / NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE SHARP WAVE PASSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY...BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PAINT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECASTS AND OBSERVED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST DATABASE ARE WELL ALIGNED.
WE STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES...INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NDFD FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP TOWARD
HAVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
SURROUNDED BY SUCH DRY AIR...HOWEVER...THAT WIDESPREAD RADAR
ECHOES APPARENTLY REPRESENTED MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
IN OK/TX HAD REGISTERED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS OF 06Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...ACROSS EASTERN TX. A SECOND SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM OFFSHORE IN THE GULF...WHILE MOST AREAS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS THE TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES TO OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE
THE QPF. SINCE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW...REFER
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


EAST COAST...

THE 06/00Z MODEL RUNS BACKED AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT
THAT THEY MADE DURING THE 05/12Z PRODUCTION CYCLE.  AT FIRST...THE
REACTION WAS NOT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF A MOVE AWAY FROM THE 05/12Z
ECMWF AND THE 06/00Z NAM WHICH CLUSTERED WELL.  THE CORRESPONDING
RUNS OF THE GFS AND UKMET WERE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE
ECMWF/NAM...CONSEQUENTLY THEY TENDED TO MOVE THE FIRST WAVE OUT TO
SEA MORE QUICKLY.  THE QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE
A SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE EVENT THE FIRST WAVE WAS BLOCKING ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION OR WHETHER THE FIRST WAVE WOULD BE OUT OF THE
WAY IN TIME TO ALLOW MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SECOND WAVE.  SINCE
THE OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN...WE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE
WPC FORECAST.  WITH THE MODELS HAVING A RATHER DIFFICULT TIME IN
HANDLING THE WAY THE MASS FIELDS INTERACT...IT FOLLOWS THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING QPF WAS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN


24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532203 533193 532185 528172 525165 521160 514152 505145
      494138 486129 482125 477124 474122 476115 476111 475108
      470105 468103 466105 464111 464101 462094 460089 458084
      450073 446068 442067 436068 432073 436078 442080 446083
      450088 455093 458099 456102 455099 452095 447094 440095
      434094 430089 428106 429116 432118 436114 441117 445121
      446124 449124 452119 456116 461114 463113 463118 462121
      463124 455132 458132 458137 456146 455154 460157 464161
      470165 481163 490172 493176 496183 501188 505191 514198
      524206 529206 532203
 0.01 545987 539957 534944 530937 527929 518899 506872 495847
      489835 489830 490825 493816 497800 498793 499783 498775
      495768 496761 498755 499748 500744 500739 498732 494727
      493720 495712 496706 497701 497696 498691 501690 505686
      509681 511674 510666 507656 501640 494629 492625 490623
      489626 481637 477643 475649 465672 462681 458687 452698
      448712 448719 446725 440740 437746 435753 434769 430785
      426791 425796 424801 427798 433787 441777 445773 448767
      450760 451756 454754 449784 440813 448821 451826 451831
      450834 450839 448843 444848 440851 437858 436863 438866
      442866 444864 447864 447867 445872 444876 444882 445890
      450906 455918 462927 466931 467932 465935 457946 455963
      458968 462974 465979 467983 467987 468996 468006 471021
      475034 483064 485068 485074 486083 489097 491103 493112
      496117 501118 508110 512103 514097 515059 515053 516047
      519042 523039 527033 533022 540011 545987
 0.01 516262 518249 517243 514238 505221 501212 496205 492203
      487201 483203 481206 474209 465211 463213 458214 454218
      459226 467223 474221 484223 489225 492228 496237 498242
      495245 489239 485238 482241 478231 473234 472237 475242
      480248 485256 486261 484266 481269 477271 464278 460287
      457302 458307 461310 464312 469315 473316 477314 484311
      490307 497302 503296 507288 510282 512274 516262
 0.01 482095 482092 483090 481090 479092 481095 480097 482097
      482095
 0.01 452168 452166 450163 449160 448157 446155 445152 443149
      441149 439151 438153 437156 441157 442159 444162 445165
      448165 450168 452168
 0.01 429248 428241 423238 417237 412239 408241 405246 404252
      407256 413256 417254 422251 427249 429248
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 441043 443045
      443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 426060 426058 425058 424060 425061 426061 426060
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 406058 405058 404056 402055 402056 404058 405058 406058
 0.01 357741 356734 353732 345728 340726 335726 331726 327727
      322729 317730 313732 310737 303743 295748 278758 263769
      251782 242797 228833 227837 228841 236837 242843 250839
      257834 260832 267831 285825 287827 293828 303827 306832
      308834 311833 316827 326824 331823 336820 340818 344815
      350809 353799 350787 353776 353764 357741
 0.01 343965 343960 342955 339947 337943 335939 329934 323930
      316926 304918 294906 290899 287890 286886 286880 285869
      282860 278854 274853 270852 267851 263853 258858 255864
      248879 246888 245892 245897 250902 252905 253911 255931
      257939 260947 264966 266968 270970 275968 281969 286968
      289966 294962 299956 303954 308955 323961 334967 343965
 0.25 534000 534994 533987 528979 526976 523970 522966 522962
      523955 522948 518938 514929 512926 509924 508926 509929
      506929 507936 508942 510950 507948 504950 501949 497947
      497952 498957 502967 506975 511983 517990 522996 527005
      529006 532005 534000
 0.25 502278 503273 502270 498268 497276 494280 490284 485287
      481291 482295 485296 491297 495293 498288 501280 502278
 0.25 506006 505001 502994 499988 496982 492979 487981 485987
      485997 487003 491008 495010 501013 505012 506009 506006
 0.25 489142 489139 489138 488136 487135 486134 484136 485137
      486139 487140 488142 489142
 0.25 475845 473844 472843 471843 469843 469846 470847 471846
      473847 475845 475845
 0.25 350744 347743 343744 338745 334745 329744 325746 321745
      318742 316741 313743 308749 304755 297760 284768 272777
      261786 251796 244809 240816 238824 239828 243828 249823
      262816 267812 276809 285806 290807 292809 297813 305814
      314815 321817 328815 334810 339804 341797 343788 343778
      344768 345759 350744
 0.25 324949 323947 321945 319943 317942 316941 314941 313943
      314945 316947 317947 317948 319949 320949 321950 323952
      324949
 0.25 282941 281931 279924 278914 275908 271900 269898 266897
      264900 263905 264913 267921 270929 272935 273940 276942
      280943 282941
 0.50 341757 339755 335755 328759 318770 311774 307774 305771
      311756 313749 311750 308753 304760 299766 288775 282779
      276783 263791 257795 254802 251809 246815 245819 247821
      253816 258813 264807 278801 284797 288797 292799 302810
      317809 324811 328810 331808 336802 338794 339785 339775
      338769 339763 341757
 1.00 332776 332770 329767 322772 316779 311784 304791 301798
      302802 305805 314801 321797 328791 330787 331783 332776
 1.50 327781 326778 324776 319780 316784 313788 310792 307799
      309801 313798 317795 321791 325786 327781
 2.00 315792 315791 315792 315792

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 534193 534188 533184 529178 520165 515158 511153 508150
      504149 499149 491146 489149 490152 492155 496157 498160
      498163 492167 491168 492171 499176 505177 509177 512180
      515186 524200 526203 530203 532201 534195 534193
 0.01 520258 521253 520251 516246 512239 509227 503220 496212
      488210 485212 485216 484223 485226 482226 479226 472234
      472238 470240 469243 475245 478247 478251 473259 466267
      463274 465280 468283 473286 476289 481291 486291 489291
      493290 502286 508280 513271 518261 520258
 0.01 528952 525925 526920 526911 526904 525898 522878 520870
      519865 518861 517857 516853 510830 510823 508818 506814
      503809 495797 489791 484783 482779 479775 474770 466768
      458763 452765 449773 448785 445787 442788 405803 389810
      377818 369824 363829 358835 356839 353843 350849 349852
      349858 350864 351866 355870 358872 357877 357885 359888
      362890 370889 379884 393875 403865 407867 410872 405878
      400885 397890 396896 396906 396913 397917 398926 400929
      400932 402933 413947 426960 428964 431964 436969 443973
      445976 449978 456984 462989 469995 471999 471003 470006
      468010 468014 469021 471024 474028 476029 484030 494031
      501026 506019 508016 511010 513003 515999 515993 522973
      526960 528952
 0.01 507685 505667 503655 498643 492637 488635 483635 479637
      477641 468661 465665 463670 459679 455688 455692 454695
      454700 453715 454725 456727 459726 465725 471718 473714
      476710 482703 486699 491701 494702 499701 505694 507685
 0.01 488136 487136 486133 484132 483132 481132 479131 478131
      476129 474128 473128 474131 476132 478132 479133 481133
      482133 484136 486136 487137 488136
 0.01 438859 438856 436855 434857 433857 431859 431860 429860
      428862 429864 431866 433866 434864 435863 436861 438859
 0.01 417693 416684 413679 408675 403673 390675 381674 368674
      362673 355676 351677 346681 338687 319703 302716 291721
      280728 272734 268738 265742 258750 251760 249764 247769
      248773 251776 259775 263772 267769 271767 275767 282772
      290779 294784 297790 306795 315800 320802 325803 337805
      344803 350800 357793 360783 362768 364762 368757 371754
      378751 386747 396739 401735 405730 411721 414710 416700
      417693
 0.25 511257 511250 508245 503246 498247 493248 490252 487259
      485264 486268 489270 493269 497268 501264 506261 509262
      511260 511257
 0.25 493939 493932 492925 491914 491899 491886 489874 486864
      480857 475854 472857 472862 472869 470873 466893 463903
      461907 461913 462925 466932 470942 474948 477951 481952
      487951 491945 493939
 0.25 474825 472816 469809 466806 462805 456806 449809 446812
      447817 452821 456822 458825 462830 469833 473830 474825
 0.25 402701 402694 399692 395690 391690 378685 371683 361683
      354686 348690 341696 335702 325713 314726 309732 304736
      294739 288744 284749 285754 287757 296771 305782 311788
      318793 324795 332796 341794 344792 347787 350780 352773
      356764 360758 365753 372747 393725 397719 400713 402706
      402701
 0.50 398709 398703 397698 394696 390697 383696 377694 371691
      365689 358690 351693 340702 331712 322724 314734 306745
      303751 301757 301763 303768 307774 310779 314783 320788
      326791 334791 341788 353762 357756 362751 366746 371742
      383732 391723 396715 398709
 1.00 393711 392706 390706 382708 377710 374707 369704 363703
      353700 347703 342708 335714 327725 321733 315744 311755
      310759 311763 313770 319778 324782 330784 336783 340779
      351758 358748 364740 369736 377733 384726 390718 393711
 1.50 387717 386713 383714 378717 372720 367719 363717 359713
      351711 345712 340715 334721 328731 323739 319749 317760
      318766 320771 323775 326777 332778 336777 340774 343770
      352751 357742 360737 363733 368731 371730 373731 380727
      385721 387717
 2.00 356732 356727 354724 350721 344721 340724 332732 326742
      324748 323754 321761 324769 327773 332774 337772 342768
      347758 352746 355735 356732
 3.00 345752 345745 343741 338741 335743 332748 331752 330757
      328760 328766 331768 336768 340764 341762 344757 345752
      345752

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 512037 511032 508027 505022 501020 495020 491017 488012
      485009 482004 478002 476001 473999 472999 470001 473011
      479019 486027 487033 491036 495038 500040 510040 512037
 0.01 504860 503842 502826 495815 493812 493807 492798 486786
      484781 481777 478772 475768 471764 467761 452750 446748
      442745 440742 441739 444735 447706 449700 453697 457694
      462689 464683 465678 463666 459648 457640 454634 450630
      446631 436634 425652 421657 415659 405663 399667 393670
      388673 384677 362688 356696 353699 347700 343699 341703
      334710 326719 319727 311735 304744 300747 298752 293761
      286780 283787 280792 277797 276802 276809 280812 290816
      298820 292828 286835 282839 283845 284853 287859 292870
      297880 301883 305885 309886 312884 323877 330872 337865
      340862 344864 348866 351872 354878 357883 361885 368885
      370885 372888 373906 375913 377916 378918 382918 386918
      389913 392911 396906 401901 411897 417896 421898 430906
      434910 438911 444914 448918 452920 455925 460932 462935
      466936 471937 480932 487922 490912 490894 495889 497883
      501870 504860
 0.01 361765 360760 358758 353758 350759 348762 343766 338771
      335776 329787 322799 321802 322805 326810 332813 337815
      341811 345805 356799 357797 355795 352795 351786 350782
      352780 357774 361765
 0.25 481864 473845 470835 469821 467810 461802 454797 446795
      430792 421790 412790 403791 397793 393796 388802 383803
      379805 374811 371815 366817 361825 360829 360832 365833
      368835 371838 375839 381840 385838 390831 392827 394825
      398822 402823 407824 410828 417832 423836 431838 443839
      450840 454840 458841 461845 462851 462878 464889 466895
      468898 472897 475893 478884 480873 481864
 0.25 451676 452668 451661 447655 443654 440654 437656 432659
      425664 416669 405675 394681 391684 387688 383697 379700
      375701 356706 348712 340720 333728 328736 317752 312762
      309766 305769 303773 302777 303785 306790 310790 314787
      321780 334765 347751 359735 365733 368729 379729 387732
      398733 404733 409730 416724 424718 428714 431710 437700
      443692 448684 451676
 0.50 442672 441668 439666 434667 431669 418675 405682 399686
      395690 391696 390703 389712 391717 394719 400718 406717
      413713 417709 423705 427700 436689 439683 441676 442672
 0.50 359720 359716 357714 350718 345721 340727 335732 331739
      328746 326753 322759 318765 314770 313774 314779 316779
      319776 323771 326764 327761 330759 337756 341750 350738
      358725 359720

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 060759
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

TO START OFF...THERE IS QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MANY ASPECTS OF
THIS FORECAST.  FIRST...AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH WITH MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR
RAIN/MIXED/SNOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS BUT ALSO DEVELOPS THE QPF ON A
MORE SOUTHERN AXIS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH SOME
OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  WE
CONSIDER THIS ONLY A REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT BUT IT DOES
ADD PAUSE WITH A ONE DAY FORECAST.  THE GEFS MEANS ALSO SUGGEST
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF AND MORNING SREFMEANS KEEP NEAR ZERO SNOWFALL.
THEREFORE...WE DO NOT FORECAST GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST BUT NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW OUR
PROBABILITIES WORK OUT INCORPORATING A LARGER ENSEMBLE SUITE.

EVEN ON DAY 2/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF EVEN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO
NEW YORK CITY. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WHILE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY...IT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SREF MEMBERS MOSTLY ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS THAT ALSO KEEP SNOWFALL
ALONG THE COAST.  AT THIS TIME...THOSE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE
NO MORE THAN 10 TO MAYBE 30 PERCENT.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN LATER ON DAY 3 AS THIS
STORM SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL INFLUENCE HOW THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD PARTICULARLY ON DAY 3/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING WHETHER THIS STORM SYSTEM
REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR IF IT STAYS FARTHER EAST.  THE VERDICT IS NOT
CLEAR.  THE MOST RECENT GEFS/SREF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
STILL AVERAGE OUT TO SOME INFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND IN
PARTICULAR...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN RUNS IN SOME
DEGREE OF AGREEMENT...WHILE THE 00 GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH
FARTHER EAST WITH MUCH LESS INFLUENCE.  IT IS SUSPECTED THAT SUCH
DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO PLAY OUT IN HOW THE FOLLOWING DIGGING TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 AND LATER OR IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE IF THE FIRST STORM REMAINS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND.
THESE FACTORS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TO
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE US DURING MOSTLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 4
INCHES OF SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON DAY
2/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...CREATING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EVEN WHERE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.  THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ON DAY 3/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE STILL IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BUT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SOME
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  AT PRESENT...THERE IS ONLY A LOW TO
MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL AS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS NEAR WEST
VIRGINIA...THERE ALSO COULD SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PORTIONS OF OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 060716
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 060716
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 060716
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 060619
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AN IMPRESSIVE MID WINTER SHORTWAVE DIGS TO A LOW LATITUDE...WITH
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF
FL/GA/SC...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY DEEP UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO STRONG ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...PRODUCING AN
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THIS AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY DAY 2...AND THE QPF INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE INCORPORATED
WHAT LITTLE TREND WAS OBSERVED TO THE QPF CONSENSUS ON THE 18-00Z
CYCLES...MAINLY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF EACH ISOHYET BY ABOUT 30
MILES...CATCHING MORE OF SE GA WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z NAM DID APPEAR TO BE TOO
STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AT AN EARLIER LEAD TIME...WHICH CAUSED ITS
DAY ONE OUTPUT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER SE GA INTO
COASTAL SC. WHILE THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MANUAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE NAM...BEING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS...THE
CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL...AND THE NAM CONUS NEST.

MEANWHILE...DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA A REMNANT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE STATE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST AND LIFTS UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...A SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM FROM
WEST OF NAPLES...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE
INTENSE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE AREA BEING NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
SOME SOLUTIONS SEEMED OVERDONE FOR MAGNITUDES GIVEN THE EVENT WILL
BE QUICKLY EVOLVING...BUT THERE WAS GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT TO THE
QPF FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST.
THESE WERE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...NORTHERN U.S. FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN  NEW ENGLAND...

A SHARPLY DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WATCHES WERE IN
EFFECT. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL ALSO GRAZE THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE WORKING WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...BUT THERE IS AGREEABLE MODEL SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 0.10 INCH LIQUID FROM NORTHERN ND ACROSS NORTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN NY AND MAINE. THE SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA IS
PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC...SUCH THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UP AROUND
BOTTINEAU AND NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE INCORPORATED SOME ASPECTS
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN TO DEFINE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND EACH CATEGORY UP TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE. THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
DOWNSCALED QPF TECHNIQUES WERE ALSO HELPFUL...AND LINED UP SUCH AS
TO INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE.


...NORTHWEST / NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE SHARP WAVE PASSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY...BUT STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PAINT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. MODEL FORECASTS AND OBSERVED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST DATABASE ARE WELL ALIGNED.
WE STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES...INCORPORATING THE GEM REGIONAL AND NDFD FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP TOWARD
HAVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
SURROUNDED BY SUCH DRY AIR...HOWEVER...THAT WIDESPREAD RADAR
ECHOES APPARENTLY REPRESENTED MAINLY VIRGA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES
IN OK/TX HAD REGISTERED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS OF 06Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...ACROSS EASTERN TX. A SECOND SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FORM OFFSHORE IN THE GULF...WHILE MOST AREAS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS THE TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 532203 533193 532185 528172 525165 521160 514152 505145
      494138 486129 482125 477124 474122 476115 476111 475108
      470105 468103 466105 464111 464101 462094 460089 458084
      450073 446068 442067 436068 432073 436078 442080 446083
      450088 455093 458099 456102 455099 452095 447094 440095
      434094 430089 428106 429116 432118 436114 441117 445121
      446124 449124 452119 456116 461114 463113 463118 462121
      463124 455132 458132 458137 456146 455154 460157 464161
      470165 481163 490172 493176 496183 501188 505191 514198
      524206 529206 532203
 0.01 545987 539957 534944 530937 527929 518899 506872 495847
      489835 489830 490825 493816 497800 498793 499783 498775
      495768 496761 498755 499748 500744 500739 498732 494727
      493720 495712 496706 497701 497696 498691 501690 505686
      509681 511674 510666 507656 501640 494629 492625 490623
      489626 481637 477643 475649 465672 462681 458687 452698
      448712 448719 446725 440740 437746 435753 434769 430785
      426791 425796 424801 427798 433787 441777 445773 448767
      450760 451756 454754 449784 440813 448821 451826 451831
      450834 450839 448843 444848 440851 437858 436863 438866
      442866 444864 447864 447867 445872 444876 444882 445890
      450906 455918 462927 466931 467932 465935 457946 455963
      458968 462974 465979 467983 467987 468996 468006 471021
      475034 483064 485068 485074 486083 489097 491103 493112
      496117 501118 508110 512103 514097 515059 515053 516047
      519042 523039 527033 533022 540011 545987
 0.01 516262 518249 517243 514238 505221 501212 496205 492203
      487201 483203 481206 474209 465211 463213 458214 454218
      459226 467223 474221 484223 489225 492228 496237 498242
      495245 489239 485238 482241 478231 473234 472237 475242
      480248 485256 486261 484266 481269 477271 464278 460287
      457302 458307 461310 464312 469315 473316 477314 484311
      490307 497302 503296 507288 510282 512274 516262
 0.01 482095 482092 483090 481090 479092 481095 480097 482097
      482095
 0.01 452168 452166 450163 449160 448157 446155 445152 443149
      441149 439151 438153 437156 441157 442159 444162 445165
      448165 450168 452168
 0.01 429248 428241 423238 417237 412239 408241 405246 404252
      407256 413256 417254 422251 427249 429248
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 441043 443045
      443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 426060 426058 425058 424060 425061 426061 426060
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 406058 405058 404056 402055 402056 404058 405058 406058
 0.01 357741 356734 353732 345728 340726 335726 331726 327727
      322729 317730 313732 310737 303743 295748 278758 263769
      251782 242797 228833 227837 228841 236837 242843 250839
      257834 260832 267831 285825 287827 293828 303827 306832
      308834 311833 316827 326824 331823 336820 340818 344815
      350809 353799 350787 353776 353764 357741
 0.01 343965 343960 342955 339947 337943 335939 329934 323930
      316926 304918 294906 290899 287890 286886 286880 285869
      282860 278854 274853 270852 267851 263853 258858 255864
      248879 246888 245892 245897 250902 252905 253911 255931
      257939 260947 264966 266968 270970 275968 281969 286968
      289966 294962 299956 303954 308955 323961 334967 343965
 0.25 534000 534994 533987 528979 526976 523970 522966 522962
      523955 522948 518938 514929 512926 509924 508926 509929
      506929 507936 508942 510950 507948 504950 501949 497947
      497952 498957 502967 506975 511983 517990 522996 527005
      529006 532005 534000
 0.25 502278 503273 502270 498268 497276 494280 490284 485287
      481291 482295 485296 491297 495293 498288 501280 502278
 0.25 506006 505001 502994 499988 496982 492979 487981 485987
      485997 487003 491008 495010 501013 505012 506009 506006
 0.25 489142 489139 489138 488136 487135 486134 484136 485137
      486139 487140 488142 489142
 0.25 475845 473844 472843 471843 469843 469846 470847 471846
      473847 475845 475845
 0.25 350744 347743 343744 338745 334745 329744 325746 321745
      318742 316741 313743 308749 304755 297760 284768 272777
      261786 251796 244809 240816 238824 239828 243828 249823
      262816 267812 276809 285806 290807 292809 297813 305814
      314815 321817 328815 334810 339804 341797 343788 343778
      344768 345759 350744
 0.25 324949 323947 321945 319943 317942 316941 314941 313943
      314945 316947 317947 317948 319949 320949 321950 323952
      324949
 0.25 282941 281931 279924 278914 275908 271900 269898 266897
      264900 263905 264913 267921 270929 272935 273940 276942
      280943 282941
 0.50 341757 339755 335755 328759 318770 311774 307774 305771
      311756 313749 311750 308753 304760 299766 288775 282779
      276783 263791 257795 254802 251809 246815 245819 247821
      253816 258813 264807 278801 284797 288797 292799 302810
      317809 324811 328810 331808 336802 338794 339785 339775
      338769 339763 341757
 1.00 332776 332770 329767 322772 316779 311784 304791 301798
      302802 305805 314801 321797 328791 330787 331783 332776
 1.50 327781 326778 324776 319780 316784 313788 310792 307799
      309801 313798 317795 321791 325786 327781
 2.00 315792 315791 315792 315792

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 060033
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 060033
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 060033
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
733 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HAYES
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 052120
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE. SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
USING RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR/RAP.

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH
GREAT PRECIP/SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.


DAYS 2/3...

OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OH
VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE THE QPF. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON SNOWFALL.

EAST COAST...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHT WESTWARD AND SLOWER EXIT FOR
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSE LOW OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY GRAZING THE NORTHEAST COAST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE
WESTWARD EDGES LIKELY OVERLAPPING THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW AND/OR
WEST...ITS NESTED DOMAIN RUN...THE CONUS NEST APPEARS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC AND SETTLES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THUS
WAS BLENDED WITH NEARLY EQUAL PARTS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
TO INCORPORATE SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES AS WELL AS TO BETTER
ADDRESS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THE EFFECT IS FOR 0.5 TO PERHAPS
MORE THAN 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO ZERO VALUES NEAR THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/JAMES

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487634 489648 488654 487659 481665 473671
      471673 466676 462678 457680 448683 437688 430691 426694
      421695 411697 404692 401684 400677 401673 411670 416668
      420665 421662 422657 423651 425645 437632
 0.01 556037 557027 555020 552007 547992 543986 539981 533968
      526955 523948 519941 512928 500908 499906 498901 500896
      503877 502871 501868 500856 500844 502834 504826 502819
      507813 509810 509805 507785 505778 504773 510760 513752
      512743 509727 503706 501696 500690 497687 494684 492687
      489688 471703 466706 464705 461705 454705 450706 449708
      449713 448717 450721 452725 452731 448733 444734 433742
      431746 432751 433758 434761 434767 434772 435777 436779
      440781 440785 438788 437791 433790 429785 429781 425781
      422787 420794 418800 417804 417808 416814 416818 420825
      422827 427827 434826 446827 452827 453831 452833 432850
      428854 427857 428862 433864 442864 443868 442873 441882
      441892 441904 452887 456882 456888 455898 451904 449913
      448922 448925 450928 458927 462923 465916 468909 470910
      470912 472917 477929 479934 482939 489950 491958 494965
      496971 500977 508990 510997 513009 512015 511019 506024
      494041 492048 490050 487052 484050 480049 477049 476052
      478071 483076 481080 478082 474086 474096 475099 479100
      487101 491105 494111 496115 499116 500114 504111 508106
      516094 523081 533072 541065 547060 551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538198 538190 538186 535181 535174 528167 516152
      513149 508146 502143 499140 495138 492135 487129 474120
      476113 474108 471105 466105 464112 463118 462121 464127
      461129 456130 450131 451137 454141 454144 452145 449143
      446145 443145 440140 438139 436140 435146 434152 437157
      442164 447179 441185 442188 448190 452193 455189 463183
      465179 465176 463174 459171 457169 459166 463166 468169
      473174 478177 480181 488187 489192 486196 478200 470205
      465205 461203 458203 458206 457212 453213 436215 433218
      427217 423219 422223 423226 421228 416230 413229 412227
      413221 411218 408217 407215 405217 406219 409222 408229
      407233 406234 404233 400231 398235 395240 392242 387244
      383248 386252 391254 400254 409256 416254 421254 426255
      436256 448258 468261 477264 482267 484269 488279 490284
      493283 498285 501289 506291 510287 513285 515279 521266
      522260 522253 521243 517232 511225 506215 505209 508203
      515209 521218 524222 529224 533217 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451097 445096 436095 432092 431090 428089
      426090 429094 432100 430104 428103 428106 430107 429113
      431118 434116 437114 441117 443121 446123 450121 453116
      459108
 0.01 429923 429919 426916 421916 415916 412919 410922 408926
      409931 412933 417933 423933 426931 428928 429923
 0.01 375972 375967 373963 369960 364961 359960 354956 350955
      345952 336936 328928 319924 315921 312918 306911 297905
      290897 288893 287887 286883 282879 277876 272879 265886
      260892 258895 256901 258907 257913 254918 253923 255943
      253949 255955 256961 257964 259964 275973 279977 282982
      286985 289989 296993 297996 299996 304996 323984 325982
      323978 319977 316975 319973 322970 327968 332969 337972
      343978 346981 351983 355987 361988 364987 366985 369983
      373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350734 346730 333740 312763 300772 283779 268785
      265787 259788 252792 239799 233804 230807 228811 229820
      230824 232828 238834 241836 246836 254835 262832 270828
      280826 286823 291823 296822 305819 312813 322804 325801
      327798 328793 331790 333787 333783 333778 334773 343759
      352744
 0.25 532200 532193 530186 528178 525172 519164 509156 503155
      497152 497148 495145 492140 488135 484131 480130 478132
      478134 480137 484140 487145 491150 496153 494158 490155
      486154 479155 475156 470152 467150 464149 463151 465154
      472161 475163 477165 484168 486173 487175 491177 496179
      501184 504187 511191 515195 518201 520206 524208 529206
      532200
 0.25 515259 516251 513242 511235 507227 501216 497209 492204
      489203 482204 471209 449217 443217 437219 435222 437226
      444229 449229 455227 459229 455231 450233 445234 440237
      439242 443242 449241 461242 469243 474247 484254 492266
      500277 503278 505278 509273 510268 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 441663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312940
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327765 324766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      285802 284805 286810 289812 293812 297811 300808 305804
      312795 318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289932 290928 290922 287917 285908 283901
      282896 279894 273891 271893 269897 267904 266914 263920
      263927 265931 265934 266940 268943 271949 270957 274962
      278963 283962 289961 293959 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 264798 260797 253799 247802 243807 241809 238813
      238816 238822 240824 243825 247826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529196 527191 524182 520176 515171 512169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509239 505232 500218 497213 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 455221 458224 463225 468222 470220
      474219 488222 491223 492226 495234 497240 502246 507250
      510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 474619 480618 482618 484620 488627 492630 495634 497638
      500644 502649 511663 513669 515680 518700 519710 521715
      522725 523736 523744 522749 523754 521766 514773 506779
      503778 500778 495779 491778 488778 484779 482781 481787
      483790 487798 491810 496825 499837 503851 507867 513881
      524905 530917 532922 535928 546946 553957 558963 561968
      561977 560984 558994 558999 557001 554020 552028 549033
      543040 537048 533051 528052 517055 510054 504052 492046
      484038 481034 477029 471019 469015 468012 465011 450996
      447991 445985 441978 438969 439964 439959 438956 431945
      431939 433933 433925 434921 438916 442913 448904 453898
      455894 453891 444880 442876 441865 440861 441858 439856
      436857 424858 422855 420847 420844 421843 426838 431833
      434828 441817 435811 431807 429805 427803 426805 421808
      417807 419804 420797 424789 427783 430774 430765 429760
      429752 431745 430739 427734 427729 428728 433725 436726
      436722 437715 437712 439711 443707 448698 445693 444689
      442686 441678 442670 442652 442637 455626
 0.01 470332 474329 477324 487316 488314 491313 494311 499311
      505308 508304 510297 513290 515280 518273 519264 520258
      521254 520250 513241 511233 509227 502217 498213 491211
      488210 486212 484218 484222 486224 488228 486233 484234
      481233 478232 476230 472234 470240 469243 471244 476247
      477252 476256 471264 466275 463281 461291 458308 457317
      458325 457327
 0.01 478162 475155 471148 466143 464136 463131 460131 458134
      458138 458143 456145 454147 455150 458158 459163 462163
      471166 476162 478162
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 457083 452076 448070 441067 437068
      434070 434075 436078 444081 448083 450088 455093 457096
      458100 456102 452095 448094 445095 437096 433104 431108
      433110 436112 441114 446121 448124 450122 455116 462112
      462111
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 416066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410076 413076 415076
 0.01 396687 395680 390677 382674 369677 358684 346690 338694
      319709 314713 310717 302722 292728 281735 271741 264747
      257756 254759 250765 246768 243773 243779 243783 245783
      249782 250784 247789 244793 242799 241805 241813 242819
      246821 254820 260818 265816 271814 277813 282814 291816
      302820 309821 316820 323819 330819 333819 336816 346807
      350796 359777 371756 377746 382737 388726 390721 393714
      396708 397703 396693 396687
 0.01 305933 305925 303920 294912 284906 275901 270900 263901
      259904 255908 253913 255919 260920 268920 279924 284926
      288931 291933 294935 297936 301936 305933
 0.25 510257 511252 509249 504249 501251 498252 495255 492258
      492265 495267 497272 501270 504268 507264 509259 510257
 0.25 526997 523979 523970 522960 520951 517944 510931 506924
      504916 498899 493886 489879 484874 480873 476874 473880
      472889 473902 475922 475930 473939 466952 465955 465962
      469967 473974 474981 476991 479999 483006 487010 491015
      497021 502025 509026 515023 517020 518015 519006 521003
      526997
 0.25 496673 495667 493661 489649 485639 483636 479632 472632
      469633 467639 472648 473654 475659 477664 481666 487671
      490674 494675 496673
 0.25 378716 377709 375705 369700 366698 362697 357697 351699
      344704 338709 325721 314734 307740 298744 290748 285753
      282761 281766 278770 273777 266781 259785 253794 250801
      249805 251808 257809 262808 274806 284806 293807 302807
      313809 321811 329811 332811 337808 342801 350786 356768
      370733 375724 378716
 0.50 494998 495995 495993 494990 492988 490987 489990 488992
      489994 489995 490996 491997 492998 493999 494998
 0.50 367719 366714 364710 359706 356705 352705 343710 338714
      334719 323731 313741 301751 296757 292763 290770 289774
      287779 260793 255799 255802 257804 267802 277801 295801
      311804 325807 332806 338801 343795 346789 351773 362742
      366730 367719
 1.00 357739 357732 356726 353722 350719 342722 334728 323741
      311754 307760 303769 303774 303780 304786 306792 308795
      311797 320800 328801 332800 336797 340790 344781 350763
      353755 356746 357739
 1.50 352746 350740 345735 343734 339735 335741 331745 327749
      317758 314763 311771 311778 313787 316792 323795 329795
      335791 338787 341781 346767 351753 352746
 2.00 348754 347750 341748 336750 333753 326758 319763 317767
      317774 318785 320788 324790 331789 334786 338782 341775
      345765 347756 348754
 3.00 342761 339759 335760 330762 327764 324769 324773 325777
      329780 334778 336776 338771 340767 341763 342761

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 514269 515261 514256 512251 511246 509241 506238 502240
      502244 503249 504255 505260 507264 510269 514269
 0.01 526923 526899 523889 522884 521877 519873 519868 515856
      512847 509841 492814 489805 485800 480790 476785 472778
      470776 467779 458781 455783 451784 445780 436780 428780
      423781 420780 412780 409779 404779 390775 382774 378772
      373773 365772 358774 351788 353795 357802 359807 357811
      353818 346829 338843 337852 339863 341868 343871 348877
      352881 355882 356885 356890 361893 362898 364903 371916
      389943 393947 398952 408960 420949 431954 445960 450964
      455971 459974 463974 470979 473979 477982 484983 487982
      490980 495980 497978 500978 502973 502968 504963 504960
      506957 506951 509944 513942 517942 522934 525928 526923
 0.01 458672 457665 455659 447655 441655 436655 427655 416658
      405663 398668 391671 387674 384677 378679 373678 367679
      357681 350687 342692 338695 335699 332704 329708 324715
      318723 311730 307737 304748 306762 310771 312776 316778
      320781 325782 337781 346777 363765 369759 376752 382745
      383742 387741 391742 396741 401739 410734 421728 428722
      435716 441708 447700 452691 454685 456680 458672
 0.01 414875 414870 412866 412863 410860 408861 405864 403865
      401867 402871 402873 404876 405878 407882 408885 410884
      411882 412877 414875
 0.01 400894 399892 397890 395888 393885 390883 388881 386880
      384881 385884 386886 388888 390890 392892 394895 397896
      400894
 0.25 472892 472885 470880 467880 464884 463889 462896 461900
      462908 463913 465916 469915 471910 471902 472895 472892
 0.25 465817 464811 462807 457802 453799 450798 441799 426806
      411813 394817 386820 382821 383816 393803 393798 388798
      379802 368813 359825 355832 353836 355838 358835 361834
      368836 365843 364847 368849 376844 381839 387833 393829
      400825 403825 407827 407832 406836 405839 409842 424835
      433833 439833 444834 448833 457829 460827 462824 465817
 0.25 438678 437675 434672 427669 418669 410672 396680 390684
      382689 373691 366690 362689 358690 352695 340705 336710
      330717 323730 317745 315753 315758 317763 323769 329771
      337769 344765 350762 357757 368746 372740 374737 379735
      395730 404727 410723 416717 420711 430698 436688 437683
      438678
 0.50 426683 423678 417676 412678 404682 393688 383697 380699
      376699 371697 363696 358698 352702 347707 339716 332728
      326740 323746 322753 324761 330764 338763 344761 350757
      356752 364744 372733 383725 397721 405718 409714 418704
      424694 426689 426683
 1.00 357743 358740 356738 351739 347741 342744 339746 337749
      335754 338758 342757 346755 349753 352750 355746 357743

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 052106
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...NC/SC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

A DYNAMIC UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR TEXARKANA WILL EVENTUALLY ROLL
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF A MID TO UPPER LOW...
WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
ANTICIPATED CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BURST OF PRECIP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM ERN
SC AND SERN NC. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CONVERT THIS MOISTURE
FROM RAIN OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SNOW. THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
AND TH GFS/ECMWF BEING A SLIGHTLY CLOSER PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WPC
INTRODUCED POSSIBLE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH FROM
FAY TO FLO TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CHS.

THEN ON MON WITH THE STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC... THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAMMOTH
PRECIP SHIELD COULD POTENTIALLY CLIP SERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY
SNOW. THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREA FOR POSSIBLE DEFORMATION
ZONE/BANDING SNOWS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM ERN LONG ISLAND TO
ERN/SERN MA. THIS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES GFS AND
ECMWF.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO UPPER MIDWEST TO OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...

A POTENT PAC SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE PAC NW LATE TODAY AND
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SAT. REASONABLE PAC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND
BITTERROOTS.

THIS PAC SYSTEM WILL THEN TEAM WITH THE NRN STREAM TO TRACK ALONG
OR NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. INITIALLY
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A BAND OF
HEAVY OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF
HEAVY SNOW. ADD IN INCREASINGLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER
WINDS COULD POSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS SET
FROM NERN ND THROUGH NRN MN.

THE ENTIRE AMPLIFYING SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST ON MON WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION DROPPING INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY...
WHILE A DYNAMIC UPPER JET CARVES THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE MID-ATL
REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MAINLY MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ENOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT TO MDT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS

FOR THE MOST PART... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A HI-RES ECMWF AND
GFS BLEND THROUGHOUT THE FCST.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051929
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH
GREAT PRECIP/SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

DAYS 2/3...

OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OH
VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE THE QPF. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON SNOWFALL.

EAST COAST...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHT WESTWARD AND SLOWER EXIT FOR
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSE LOW OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY GRAZING THE NORTHEAST COAST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE
WESTWARD EDGES LIKELY OVERLAPPING THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW AND/OR
WEST...ITS NESTED DOMAIN RUN...THE CONUS NEST APPEARS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC AND SETTLES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THUS
WAS BLENDED WITH NEARLY EQUAL PARTS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
TO INCORPORATE SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES AS WELL AS TO BETTER
ADDRESS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THE EFFECT IS FOR 0.5 TO PERHAPS
MORE THAN 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO ZERO VALUES NEAR THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/JAMES

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 474619 481618 485622 492630 498638 500645 503650 510662
      513667 514674 517696 519707 521715 522726 523738 523746
      523755 522757 522762 520766 513774 509779 504778 498778
      495779 493777 486778 483780 481782 482787 483790 487798
      492812 496825 503852 507867 513881 524905 530917 533923
      535929 546947 553957 556960 560965 561966 561972 560982
      557001 554021 552028 549033 543040 537049 527053 523053
      520055 513054 507054 501052 492046 483037 477029 471019
      469015 467012 465011 456003 453999 450995 438969 439963
      439958 437955 431945 431938 433933 433924 435920 450903
      453898 455896 454893 452890 444880 442877 442874 442870
      440864 441859 439856 436857 425858 422854 421850 420846
      433830 440818 442816 439813 437813 435811 430806 428804
      426805 423806 421808 417807 420797 425788 428782 429774
      430768 429762 431747 431742 430740 427734 427729 429728
      433725 436725 436722 437714 444706 446702 448700 447697
      445693 444689 442686 441677 442674 441669 443654 442637
      455626
 0.01 470332 474329 478324 487316 488313 491313 494311 500311
      505308 510297 511292 513290 515280 518273 519264 519260
      520257 521253 520250 513240 509227 502217 497213 491211
      488210 486212 484219 484222 487226 488229 486233 484234
      481233 478232 476230 473233 470240 469243 471244 477247
      477252 475258 471264 466275 463282 461291 458309 457317
      458325 457327
 0.01 478162 475155 471148 466143 464136 463131 460131 458134
      458138 458144 456145 454147 455150 458158 459163 462163
      471166 476162 478162
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 457083 452076 448070 441067 437068
      434070 434076 436078 444081 450088 455093 457097 458100
      456102 452095 445095 440095 437096 433104 431108 434110
      437112 441114 446121 448124 450122 456116 462112 462111
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 416066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410076 413076 415076
 0.01 396687 395679 389677 382674 367678 358684 346690 338695
      319709 309717 301722 281735 270741 264747 256757 253761
      250765 242799 241806 241813 242819 246821 253820 258818
      263816 271814 277813 282814 292816 303821 316820 324819
      330819 333819 337816 341812 344808 347803 350796 359776
      371756 377746 382736 389724 393714 396708 397702 396691
      396687
 0.01 305933 305924 303920 294912 284906 275901 270900 263901
      259904 255908 253913 255919 260920 268920 279924 284927
      288931 292933 294935 297936 301936 305933
 0.25 510257 511252 509249 504249 501251 498252 495255 492258
      492265 495267 497272 501270 504268 507264 509259 510257
 0.25 526997 523979 523969 522960 520951 517944 510931 506924
      504916 498899 493886 488878 484874 480873 476874 473880
      472891 473902 475922 475931 473939 466952 465956 465962
      469967 473974 475982 477992 479999 483006 487010 492016
      497021 502025 506026 509026 516023 517020 518015 519006
      521003 526997
 0.25 496673 495667 493661 489649 485639 483636 479632 472632
      469633 467639 472648 473654 475659 477664 481666 487671
      490674 494675 496673
 0.25 378716 377709 375705 369700 366698 361697 356697 351699
      344704 337709 325721 314734 307740 298744 289748 285753
      282759 282763 278770 273777 265781 261783 258787 253794
      250801 250806 252809 257809 264808 274806 284806 293807
      304807 313809 321811 329811 333810 337808 342801 350785
      356768 370733 375724 378716
 0.50 494998 495995 495993 494990 492988 490987 489990 488992
      489994 489995 490996 491997 492998 493999 494998
 0.50 367719 366714 364710 359706 356705 350706 343710 338715
      334719 327727 323731 313741 301751 296757 292763 290772
      287779 285781 281783 274785 265789 260793 255799 255803
      258804 268802 277801 296801 311804 326807 333806 338801
      343795 346789 351773 362742 366730 367719
 1.00 357739 357732 356726 350719 342722 334728 323741 311754
      307760 303769 303774 303780 304787 306792 308795 312797
      320800 328801 332799 336797 340790 344781 350763 353755
      356746 357739
 1.50 352746 350740 345735 342734 339735 335741 331745 327749
      317758 313763 311771 311778 313787 316792 323795 329795
      335791 338787 341781 346767 351753 352746
 2.00 348754 346750 341748 336750 333753 326758 319763 317767
      317774 318785 320789 324790 331789 334786 338782 341775
      345765 347756 348754
 3.00 342761 339759 335760 330762 327764 324769 324773 325777
      329780 334778 336776 338771 340767 341763 342761

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 514269 515261 514256 512251 511246 509241 506238 502240
      502244 503249 504255 505260 507264 510269 514269
 0.01 526923 526899 523889 522884 521877 519873 519868 515856
      512847 509841 492814 489805 485800 480790 476785 472778
      470776 467779 458781 455783 451784 445780 436780 428780
      423781 420780 412780 409779 404779 390775 382774 378772
      373773 365772 358774 351788 353795 357802 359807 357811
      353818 346829 338843 337852 339863 341868 343871 348877
      352881 355882 356885 356890 361893 362898 364903 371916
      389943 393947 398952 408960 420949 431954 445960 450964
      455971 459974 463974 470979 473979 477982 484983 487982
      490980 495980 497978 500978 502973 502968 504963 504960
      506957 506951 509944 513942 517942 522934 525928 526923
 0.01 458672 457665 455659 447655 441655 436655 427655 416658
      405663 398668 391671 387674 384677 378679 373678 367679
      357681 350687 342692 338695 335699 332704 329708 324715
      318723 311730 307737 304748 306762 310771 312776 316778
      320781 325782 337781 346777 363765 369759 376752 382745
      383742 387741 391742 396741 401739 410734 421728 428722
      435716 441708 447700 452691 454685 456680 458672
 0.01 414875 414870 412866 412863 410860 408861 405864 403865
      401867 402871 402873 404876 405878 407882 408885 410884
      411882 412877 414875
 0.01 400894 399892 397890 395888 393885 390883 388881 386880
      384881 385884 386886 388888 390890 392892 394895 397896
      400894
 0.25 472892 472885 470880 467880 464884 463889 462896 461900
      462908 463913 465916 469915 471910 471902 472895 472892
 0.25 465817 464811 462807 457802 453799 450798 441799 426806
      411813 394817 386820 382821 383816 393803 393798 388798
      379802 368813 359825 355832 353836 355838 358835 361834
      368836 365843 364847 368849 376844 381839 387833 393829
      400825 403825 407827 407832 406836 405839 409842 424835
      433833 439833 444834 448833 457829 460827 462824 465817
 0.25 438678 437675 434672 427669 418669 410672 396680 390684
      382689 373691 366690 362689 358690 352695 340705 336710
      330717 323730 317745 315753 315758 317763 323769 329771
      337769 344765 350762 357757 368746 372740 374737 379735
      395730 404727 410723 416717 420711 430698 436688 437683
      438678
 0.50 426683 423678 417676 412678 404682 393688 383697 380699
      376699 371697 363696 358698 352702 347707 339716 332728
      326740 323746 322753 324761 330764 338763 344761 350757
      356752 364744 372733 383725 397721 405718 409714 418704
      424694 426689 426683
 1.00 357743 358740 356738 351739 347741 342744 339746 337749
      335754 338758 342757 346755 349753 352750 355746 357743

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051905
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH
GREAT PRECIP/SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 051900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 051427
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 15Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051030
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL QPF AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD...BUT HAD SHOWN TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER ONSET AND GREATER
EMPHASIS ON WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH DECREASING EXPECTATIONS OVER
OREGON. FOR THE 06Z PRELIMINARY PACKAGE WPC HAD MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST...BUT IN THE FINAL 0830Z PACKAGE WE FOLLOWED
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS TO DELAY TIMING AND DECREASE
AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS BEING CONFINED TO
THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS AT 10Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT
ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDES...AND A
RETURN FETCH OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING ONE LOCAL
MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
GEFS PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH
EVENT TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...AIDING THE
PRODUCTION OF GENERALLY LIGHT QPF.  A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON DAY
2/EARLY ON DAY 3.  AS THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH THEN MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.  MOISTURE AND
LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON DAY 3 BUT
THERE HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT OF A SIGNAL AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW.  THE ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO QUICK TO SWEEP THE
SYSTEM OUT BUT THE NAM SEEMED TO BE TOO WET IN PLACES WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS GENERALLY NOT FOUND IN SUCH A SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE
QPF WAS LARGELY BASED ON THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH MOST EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS.

WHILE MUCH OF THE PCPN TIED TO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE
OF A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THE 00Z MODELS GOT
INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR QPF.

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE ON
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL. AFTER THAT TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
CONTINUES CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE TENDED TO FAVOR A SOLN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF
AND MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM.

A SURFACE FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD
INITIALLY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.  THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEPARATING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM PW CLOSER TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF
THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. WE ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE HERE.

A SURFACE WAVE SPINS UP ALONG THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF THE FL
EAST COAST. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS
IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.  ONCE AGAIN...WE
TENDED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND LEAST
ON THE ECMWF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487634 489649 489654 487658 475673 467681
      461691 456699 452706 442721 436730 429737 415751 401761
      394766 387770 380773 376774 367772 350764 343761 338762
      335764 325777 320785 313794 302808 299811 293813 286814
      278811 272808 265804 261801 258797 255797 252799 248802
      241809 237816 235823 232827 230828 228818 227810 231800
      239781 243773 249768 256764 266762 270764 272766 271770
      272773 277771 281772 282776 279780 276783 269789 269792
      272795 278794 282792 287787 294780 301773 317759 324755
      330750 336743 340737 353720 358714 367707 381696 389681
      400666 407657 415649 425642 432637 437632
 0.01 541203 539196 537190 535182 535175 532170 526166 517158
      499145 490135 486131 483129 480128 469125 468127 469133
      466133 464131 456130 451131 450133 451136 454141 453145
      450144 445145 443145 441143 438139 436140 435143 434152
      437158 442169 444174 446177 446180 441183 439185 438191
      438198 439202 442204 443209 439211 429213 421222 417222
      415224 412229 404236 396242 391245 387248 385250 383254
      385257 389257 394257 399260 404263 403269 401277 400286
      406298 410302 415304 427309 435311 441311 448314 454314
      464315 474314 484313 495309 501306 508300 524262 522252
      520242 518234 516227 512218 508211 507208 509202 514208
      520213 523214 525213 530219 531221 534223
 0.01 504826 503822 502819 500814 496812 490812 484813 478817
      475817 473819 469820 465819 463814 459811 455808 455802
      455797 456793 455784 452779 449780 448782 447790 445796
      439804 436806 435811 433816 439815 441814 444817 452822
      455827 456834 449845 445858 442873 442879 440882 441886
      441896 442905 438918 435931 433937 432946 429952 428955
      428960 428964 429966 433971 440981 443993 444997 444002
      446007 448010 451010 456008 462996 467986 472973 478959
      487936 489927 492920 494914 496906 501878 502868 502858
      501839 504826
 0.01 475197 475192 473189 470188 467187 465189 463191 461193
      459195 456199 458203 461203 463203 465204 467205 469203
      471201 474199 475197
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 443098 439098 438099
      434099 435105 437105 437110 440112 442118 444123 448121
      453117 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 432106 430106 428106 427106 426108 428108 430106 432106
      432106
 0.01 414064 412061 410059 407058 404058 402056 398055 391063
      389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063 405065
      403065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 416968 415963 412964 405973 396993 392003 386015 373030
      366034 362038 364041 365048 364052 361054 361056 364054
      369053 375054 379051 382046 386043 390041 394037 399016
      403006 407993 416970 416968
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 365979 361973 362969 363963 361958 359956 354952
      346949 330944 317940 312939 309941 307943 305947 298949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 258939 255941 254945
      254955 256961 258964 261966 268971 280978 290989 301996
      315988 321986 325981 326978 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344985 344990 343001 345004 349005 355000 363995
      368985
 0.25 461623 468624 471625 473628 476633 478638 479645 478651
      471665 466673 461680 452692 440706 431716 418729 407738
      398744 390747 381749 374749 366747 362745 359740 361733
      366726 370720 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 438637
      443632 450627
 0.25 530200 529191 526182 523176 517171 511167 507165 503165
      497165 492164 490162 487159 485156 483156 479157 473158
      475161 478163 483167 488175 491181 499185 505188 511194
      523203 527204 530200
 0.25 519274 520264 519254 518244 514235 511227 507220 498205
      493200 486200 479202 473206 467210 461212 454213 446216
      434220 434236 427236 420235 416237 414240 411243 411247
      418249 421250 423252 421265 422270 425271 430274 432277
      437277 443284 449290 457293 464294 481296 494296 501294
      508291 514285 518278 519274
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 459180 459180
 0.50 518271 519263 518256 515243 511231 505220 499211 495206
      488204 483204 479205 470211 462215 457219 458224 457229
      454231 449233 446235 446238 448241 453244 459247 465250
      480267 485277 493287 497290 501290 506288 510284 515277
      518271
 0.50 523189 521184 518179 513175 507174 504172 500171 496174
      502177 505178 506180 510186 515189 520192 522192 523189
 0.50 471645 471639 470635 466630 459627 457627 453628 447632
      443637 438641 432648 424658 414670 407680 397693 380714
      377720 375726 372733 371736 373737 378736 393733 400732
      406729 416721 423715 428711 446690 455680 464665 468657
      471645
 1.00 513271 515264 515256 513245 509235 504224 499217 496212
      491209 481207 477209 475214 481219 487222 489226 492237
      486238 483240 481237 480232 476229 471229 469235 470241
      473245 477249 480252 482257 487267 492275 495280 499284
      504285 507282 513272 513271
 1.00 463640 461636 457634 452636 448641 439647 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 387713 385718 384721 386722
      392720 401714 407710 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685
      444676 451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 510257 512253 511249 509241 507235 504228 501223 498219
      495217 493218 492221 492226 494233 497239 500244 503249
      506256 510257
 1.50 505281 506277 506272 504265 501259 498255 494249 491244
      489242 486243 485251 487259 490265 493269 497276 499281
      502282 505281
 1.50 487213 486211 484210 484209 483209 481208 479210 478213
      479213 480215 482215 483216 485215 486215 487213 487213
 1.50 478243 480241 480239 479236 478233 476232 474232 473233
      472234 471236 472238 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244
      478244 478243
 1.50 448653 447650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417681 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503276 503269 501264 499260 497256 494251 491247 489247
      488254 489259 491263 493266 496271 499275 501277 503276
 2.00 506245 506240 505237 503234 502231 500228 499225 498223
      494223 495228 495231 497234 498237 500240 502243 503244
      506245
 2.00 477240 478238 477236 477235 476235 475235 474235 473236
      474238 474239 475240 477241 477240

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 480616 488623 492627 495632 497636 501640 506650 516674
      517682 518686 519689 521703 524729 523758 521768 525776
      527786 526790 526794 524797 520809 516814 513819 509828
      502837 499840 497846 496852 494859 500869 505876 514889
      519896 523905 528912 530918 533922 541936 547946 551951
      555954 558957 560961 562968 563976 562994 560008 557024
      556038 553049 550057 544063 538068 531072 526078 525081
      526083 527089 530100 530103 532105 535110 541119 542122
      541130 539137 537146 535153 534160 530173 529178 530183
      533187 536193 538197 539199 538203 533206 525206 517204
      512198 509195 506195 503195 500191 499185 496181 493176
      491175 489177 488180 486180 483176 481174 478173 473174
      469172 467170 466173 466177 464181 462183 456190 450195
      449189 449179 446172 441166 437158 435153 435148 435143
      437140 439139 442142 446143 448140 450134 451128 435117
      428125 424129 423126 423121 426115 422111 423105 428103
      430101 430098 427091 428089 430093 433095 436097 438095
      445094 451093 454096 456100 457096 451088 446083 443080
      437079 434076 433072 435069 443067 448070 451073 457082
      459086 461092 463099 464101 467102 472103 475106 476109
      473114 471118 473122 481126 486127 489130 497136 508147
      513149 515152 517151 517147 516143 513129 509124 505125
      500124 497121 490113 487107 483103 483100 481099 477099
      474096 470095 465087 459081 455074 451065 447063 443058
      437056 434052 433048 433037 437028 437026 440026 442026
      444029 452026 460022 464018 463012 463007 461003 460000
      455991 452980 452974 454968 457964 462964 465961 467957
      472940 469940 465937 463933 462929 460926 461921 462915
      465910 467910 468906 464902 461898 461889 456878 454874
      453866 445870 440873 435874 430874 426872 424872 424867
      424859 427852 435847 434839 433833 431827 426827 422827
      420824 418821 416819 414819 411814 410808 408803 413784
 0.01 413784 418776 423772 425767 423763 421759 421754 420747
      423744 430740 433738 436734 432733 427734 427729 430728
      432725 435726 438721 437714 438711 442709 447702 448698
      445695 444690 442686 441677 442664 442658 443654 445644
      449638 453631 457629 459626 462625 464622
 0.01 470332 487315 491312 496310 501310 505308 508302 511294
      517278 522263 524258 524251 514240 511235 508228 505222
      502217 500213 499210 496210 492209 489206 487204 483203
      478204 473207 465211 460212 455212 444213 438212 433215
      425220 429231 426233 423234 416232 408232 404233 400236
      401240 402243 401247 398253 391267 388274 388278 394278
      398277 406274 415265 424258 432251 436248 438241 441235
      446231 453231 458229 461226 463225 466226 472236 472240
      474244 476246 477251 476255 474259 471265 465277 463282
      461291 457313 457327
 0.01 494238 494236 493233 493230 492229 490227 489225 488226
      487226 485226 484227 484228 482229 483231 485231 486232
      488233 488234 489236 490237 490239 492240 494238
 0.01 475091 476089 476086 476084 475081 473081 471083 471086
      471088 471091 472093 474093 475091
 0.01 474074 472073 470071 471068 470066 469064 468065 468068
      469070 470071 472073 474074 474074
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 356732 355724 352719 349715 346712 342710 337711 333713
      330717 316732 302743 269765 260771 257775 251777 245778
      242780 239783 237787 236792 232796 229800 228805 228810
      228816 226823 230828 233831 235839 237843 243847 247849
      252849 258848 262844 271839 278844 281844 284840 288835
      289831 292825 295822 299820 304819 316817 327814 336809
      343803 348798 355788 354781 352776 349771 350764 353755
      354750 355743 356732
 0.01 345958 343951 339943 335932 333928 330927 323924 317923
      312920 306917 299915 290909 284906 277903 272900 266900
      259903 255908 254915 255919 257920 259922 258925 257928
      257933 257941 258947 262963 266968 270971 274977 279981
      283981 284979 288975 296964 299959 305956 313958 319961
      328968 334969 339965 345958
 0.25 541995 541987 539984 535979 532976 531972 528965 518953
      513947 509944 506945 505950 506960 507971 510978 514987
      518992 520015 522026 523028 525028 529020 534016 537012
      538008 540998 541995
 0.25 516185 516182 516181 515179 515178 513177 512177 510177
      509178 508180 509183 511185 511186 512187 514187 515186
      516185
 0.25 478714 478711 477709 476708 475707 474706 473707 471708
      470709 468711 468712 467714 467717 468719 469721 471721
      472721 473720 474719 476718 477717 478714
 0.25 472158 472153 471150 469148 468146 466144 463142 460143
      460148 458153 460156 463158 466159 470159 472158
 0.25 447111 449109 447109 445108 445109 447111 447111
 0.25 442752 442751 440752 440753 440754 442752 442752
 0.25 429243 428239 424238 421237 418236 416237 413238 412240
      410244 410248 414249 417249 419249 422248 424246 427245
      429243
 0.25 342755 341746 339742 335741 331742 324744 313753 304759
      290766 279771 266778 259780 254783 238802 234808 236812
      240813 248811 255811 269812 277811 284812 292813 299813
      306813 313811 320809 326805 336798 340792 341789 341784
      340775 340768 342755
 0.25 324949 323946 321943 319941 317940 316938 312938 310941
      312945 314946 316948 319949 321951 324949
 0.25 279947 277947 277948 279948 279947
 0.50 466154 467152 466150 464150 463151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 422243 423241 422241 421239 419239 417239 416241 417242
      418243 420244 422243 422243
 0.50 337758 336756 333754 327754 317759 307765 298770 287775
      277778 269781 264783 260785 256789 252792 248796 242803
      243805 247806 254805 261804 265805 278807 283807 288808
      295809 301809 313807 319805 323801 330795 334791 334783
      335771 337758
 1.00 328775 328769 325768 320770 313773 308777 303781 298785
      292788 286789 278789 273792 273795 276797 281799 284800
      288800 294799 299802 305803 310802 314800 317797 322791
      325786 328775

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 474619 481621 486625 495634 498638 500645 502654 502664
      501674 499678 497681 491681 484680 476683 469688 466695
      459707 454715 451722 449741 447750 443756 441758 440754
      439743 440722 441714 442711 445708 449701 452692 454685
      457680 462671 465665 466660 465654 460649 453648 447651
      443646 440640 447632 454626
 0.01 520258 521253 520250 517246 514242 512239 509227 503220
      496213 488210 485212 485216 484222 487226 488230 486233
      482233 477230 472234 471238 470240 471244 476246 479249
      479254 478257 476262 471272 469276 471281 478287 482291
      487294 493290 502286 508280 513271 515264 518261 520258
 0.01 533979 533961 533949 530939 527930 526907 526901 525898
      524892 522886 517863 514854 513848 511845 507837 504831
      500824 495817 489810 484805 472797 470793 467792 459790
      445789 410796 395802 390803 388806 383809 378817 372824
      364836 361842 357850 356853 356858 357861 360865 360869
      359872 356875 350881 347888 345896 346906 347909 350910
      359910 362908 364905 367901 371898 373895 376893 377896
      379898 382896 385895 387893 388896 392913 398929 401935
      403938 409945 414947 417950 419954 423961 426967 431973
      431978 429980 428982 428986 429990 436994 441993 443996
      448003 473017 491023 499024 503024 505022 509022 512020
      517015 521010 525002 528996 530989 533979
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 430885 427879 424874 421870 415866 408866 407868 403869
      399874 402876 405875 409875 409877 411882 414882 420884
      425886 427887 430885
 0.01 408702 406693 402688 398686 395680 389674 383675 378674
      356682 339694 304721 283733 273738 265744 251760 245769
      243773 242777 241782 244784 249784 254783 258779 266774
      275779 280783 283788 291793 299799 309801 317801 323799
      333794 349782 354777 357773 362763 363757 363753 365751
      374745 389729 399723 404715 407708 408702
 0.25 510260 511257 512255 511252 511250 510249 509247 508246
      508245 507245 506245 505246 504247 504249 503252 504253
      504255 504257 504259 506260 506261 507262 508262 509261
      510260
 0.25 501939 502937 501934 501931 500929 499928 498926 497925
      496924 495924 495927 495929 495932 495934 496935 496937
      496939 497941 498942 499943 500942 501940 501939
 0.25 490909 488899 485896 484892 485884 484877 481867 478857
      475849 466834 461828 459832 460834 463843 464850 463854
      464881 463905 464910 466915 469917 472914 478907 481906
      484908 489912 490909
 0.25 388705 388698 385695 380691 367687 359688 352691 342700
      331711 322721 313733 304742 294745 288749 284755 289757
      298760 299766 300775 304780 317786 325786 331784 344776
      349770 352766 365737 375726 382715 387709 388705
 0.50 376708 376702 374700 371696 367693 363692 356694 351697
      343704 335712 328719 321728 316737 310746 307750 305755
      305764 307769 313777 319780 325781 331780 335777 344769
      350761 358740 371722 376708
 1.00 363717 363710 361707 354703 348707 342713 336718 331724
      323737 315751 313759 314763 316767 322772 325774 330774
      335772 338769 342764 350749 356734 360727 363719 363717
 1.50 357723 357718 355714 349714 343717 339720 335725 332730
      327740 322752 320757 321763 326767 331769 336765 339762
      345751 350740 355729 357723
 2.00 353726 352721 348720 345721 340724 335730 331738 327746
      324756 324760 327764 331765 335763 340755 343748 347739
      352731 353726
 3.00 346732 344728 340731 338734 335738 333743 333748 333752
      334751 337747 339744 342739 343736 346732 346732

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 051030
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL QPF AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD...BUT HAD SHOWN TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER ONSET AND GREATER
EMPHASIS ON WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH DECREASING EXPECTATIONS OVER
OREGON. FOR THE 06Z PRELIMINARY PACKAGE WPC HAD MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST...BUT IN THE FINAL 0830Z PACKAGE WE FOLLOWED
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS TO DELAY TIMING AND DECREASE
AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS BEING CONFINED TO
THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS AT 10Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT
ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDES...AND A
RETURN FETCH OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING ONE LOCAL
MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
GEFS PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH
EVENT TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...AIDING THE
PRODUCTION OF GENERALLY LIGHT QPF.  A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON DAY
2/EARLY ON DAY 3.  AS THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH THEN MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.  MOISTURE AND
LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON DAY 3 BUT
THERE HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT OF A SIGNAL AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW.  THE ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO QUICK TO SWEEP THE
SYSTEM OUT BUT THE NAM SEEMED TO BE TOO WET IN PLACES WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS GENERALLY NOT FOUND IN SUCH A SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE
QPF WAS LARGELY BASED ON THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH MOST EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS.

WHILE MUCH OF THE PCPN TIED TO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE
OF A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THE 00Z MODELS GOT
INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR QPF.

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE ON
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL. AFTER THAT TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
CONTINUES CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE TENDED TO FAVOR A SOLN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF
AND MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM.

A SURFACE FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD
INITIALLY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.  THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEPARATING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM PW CLOSER TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF
THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. WE ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE HERE.

A SURFACE WAVE SPINS UP ALONG THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF THE FL
EAST COAST. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS
IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.  ONCE AGAIN...WE
TENDED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND LEAST
ON THE ECMWF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487634 489649 489654 487658 475673 467681
      461691 456699 452706 442721 436730 429737 415751 401761
      394766 387770 380773 376774 367772 350764 343761 338762
      335764 325777 320785 313794 302808 299811 293813 286814
      278811 272808 265804 261801 258797 255797 252799 248802
      241809 237816 235823 232827 230828 228818 227810 231800
      239781 243773 249768 256764 266762 270764 272766 271770
      272773 277771 281772 282776 279780 276783 269789 269792
      272795 278794 282792 287787 294780 301773 317759 324755
      330750 336743 340737 353720 358714 367707 381696 389681
      400666 407657 415649 425642 432637 437632
 0.01 541203 539196 537190 535182 535175 532170 526166 517158
      499145 490135 486131 483129 480128 469125 468127 469133
      466133 464131 456130 451131 450133 451136 454141 453145
      450144 445145 443145 441143 438139 436140 435143 434152
      437158 442169 444174 446177 446180 441183 439185 438191
      438198 439202 442204 443209 439211 429213 421222 417222
      415224 412229 404236 396242 391245 387248 385250 383254
      385257 389257 394257 399260 404263 403269 401277 400286
      406298 410302 415304 427309 435311 441311 448314 454314
      464315 474314 484313 495309 501306 508300 524262 522252
      520242 518234 516227 512218 508211 507208 509202 514208
      520213 523214 525213 530219 531221 534223
 0.01 504826 503822 502819 500814 496812 490812 484813 478817
      475817 473819 469820 465819 463814 459811 455808 455802
      455797 456793 455784 452779 449780 448782 447790 445796
      439804 436806 435811 433816 439815 441814 444817 452822
      455827 456834 449845 445858 442873 442879 440882 441886
      441896 442905 438918 435931 433937 432946 429952 428955
      428960 428964 429966 433971 440981 443993 444997 444002
      446007 448010 451010 456008 462996 467986 472973 478959
      487936 489927 492920 494914 496906 501878 502868 502858
      501839 504826
 0.01 475197 475192 473189 470188 467187 465189 463191 461193
      459195 456199 458203 461203 463203 465204 467205 469203
      471201 474199 475197
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 443098 439098 438099
      434099 435105 437105 437110 440112 442118 444123 448121
      453117 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 432106 430106 428106 427106 426108 428108 430106 432106
      432106
 0.01 414064 412061 410059 407058 404058 402056 398055 391063
      389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063 405065
      403065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 416968 415963 412964 405973 396993 392003 386015 373030
      366034 362038 364041 365048 364052 361054 361056 364054
      369053 375054 379051 382046 386043 390041 394037 399016
      403006 407993 416970 416968
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 365979 361973 362969 363963 361958 359956 354952
      346949 330944 317940 312939 309941 307943 305947 298949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 258939 255941 254945
      254955 256961 258964 261966 268971 280978 290989 301996
      315988 321986 325981 326978 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344985 344990 343001 345004 349005 355000 363995
      368985
 0.25 461623 468624 471625 473628 476633 478638 479645 478651
      471665 466673 461680 452692 440706 431716 418729 407738
      398744 390747 381749 374749 366747 362745 359740 361733
      366726 370720 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 438637
      443632 450627
 0.25 530200 529191 526182 523176 517171 511167 507165 503165
      497165 492164 490162 487159 485156 483156 479157 473158
      475161 478163 483167 488175 491181 499185 505188 511194
      523203 527204 530200
 0.25 519274 520264 519254 518244 514235 511227 507220 498205
      493200 486200 479202 473206 467210 461212 454213 446216
      434220 434236 427236 420235 416237 414240 411243 411247
      418249 421250 423252 421265 422270 425271 430274 432277
      437277 443284 449290 457293 464294 481296 494296 501294
      508291 514285 518278 519274
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 459180 459180
 0.50 518271 519263 518256 515243 511231 505220 499211 495206
      488204 483204 479205 470211 462215 457219 458224 457229
      454231 449233 446235 446238 448241 453244 459247 465250
      480267 485277 493287 497290 501290 506288 510284 515277
      518271
 0.50 523189 521184 518179 513175 507174 504172 500171 496174
      502177 505178 506180 510186 515189 520192 522192 523189
 0.50 471645 471639 470635 466630 459627 457627 453628 447632
      443637 438641 432648 424658 414670 407680 397693 380714
      377720 375726 372733 371736 373737 378736 393733 400732
      406729 416721 423715 428711 446690 455680 464665 468657
      471645
 1.00 513271 515264 515256 513245 509235 504224 499217 496212
      491209 481207 477209 475214 481219 487222 489226 492237
      486238 483240 481237 480232 476229 471229 469235 470241
      473245 477249 480252 482257 487267 492275 495280 499284
      504285 507282 513272 513271
 1.00 463640 461636 457634 452636 448641 439647 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 387713 385718 384721 386722
      392720 401714 407710 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685
      444676 451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 510257 512253 511249 509241 507235 504228 501223 498219
      495217 493218 492221 492226 494233 497239 500244 503249
      506256 510257
 1.50 505281 506277 506272 504265 501259 498255 494249 491244
      489242 486243 485251 487259 490265 493269 497276 499281
      502282 505281
 1.50 487213 486211 484210 484209 483209 481208 479210 478213
      479213 480215 482215 483216 485215 486215 487213 487213
 1.50 478243 480241 480239 479236 478233 476232 474232 473233
      472234 471236 472238 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244
      478244 478243
 1.50 448653 447650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417681 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503276 503269 501264 499260 497256 494251 491247 489247
      488254 489259 491263 493266 496271 499275 501277 503276
 2.00 506245 506240 505237 503234 502231 500228 499225 498223
      494223 495228 495231 497234 498237 500240 502243 503244
      506245
 2.00 477240 478238 477236 477235 476235 475235 474235 473236
      474238 474239 475240 477241 477240

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 480616 488623 492627 495632 497636 501640 506650 516674
      517682 518686 519689 521703 524729 523758 521768 525776
      527786 526790 526794 524797 520809 516814 513819 509828
      502837 499840 497846 496852 494859 500869 505876 514889
      519896 523905 528912 530918 533922 541936 547946 551951
      555954 558957 560961 562968 563976 562994 560008 557024
      556038 553049 550057 544063 538068 531072 526078 525081
      526083 527089 530100 530103 532105 535110 541119 542122
      541130 539137 537146 535153 534160 530173 529178 530183
      533187 536193 538197 539199 538203 533206 525206 517204
      512198 509195 506195 503195 500191 499185 496181 493176
      491175 489177 488180 486180 483176 481174 478173 473174
      469172 467170 466173 466177 464181 462183 456190 450195
      449189 449179 446172 441166 437158 435153 435148 435143
      437140 439139 442142 446143 448140 450134 451128 435117
      428125 424129 423126 423121 426115 422111 423105 428103
      430101 430098 427091 428089 430093 433095 436097 438095
      445094 451093 454096 456100 457096 451088 446083 443080
      437079 434076 433072 435069 443067 448070 451073 457082
      459086 461092 463099 464101 467102 472103 475106 476109
      473114 471118 473122 481126 486127 489130 497136 508147
      513149 515152 517151 517147 516143 513129 509124 505125
      500124 497121 490113 487107 483103 483100 481099 477099
      474096 470095 465087 459081 455074 451065 447063 443058
      437056 434052 433048 433037 437028 437026 440026 442026
      444029 452026 460022 464018 463012 463007 461003 460000
      455991 452980 452974 454968 457964 462964 465961 467957
      472940 469940 465937 463933 462929 460926 461921 462915
      465910 467910 468906 464902 461898 461889 456878 454874
      453866 445870 440873 435874 430874 426872 424872 424867
      424859 427852 435847 434839 433833 431827 426827 422827
      420824 418821 416819 414819 411814 410808 408803 413784
 0.01 413784 418776 423772 425767 423763 421759 421754 420747
      423744 430740 433738 436734 432733 427734 427729 430728
      432725 435726 438721 437714 438711 442709 447702 448698
      445695 444690 442686 441677 442664 442658 443654 445644
      449638 453631 457629 459626 462625 464622
 0.01 470332 487315 491312 496310 501310 505308 508302 511294
      517278 522263 524258 524251 514240 511235 508228 505222
      502217 500213 499210 496210 492209 489206 487204 483203
      478204 473207 465211 460212 455212 444213 438212 433215
      425220 429231 426233 423234 416232 408232 404233 400236
      401240 402243 401247 398253 391267 388274 388278 394278
      398277 406274 415265 424258 432251 436248 438241 441235
      446231 453231 458229 461226 463225 466226 472236 472240
      474244 476246 477251 476255 474259 471265 465277 463282
      461291 457313 457327
 0.01 494238 494236 493233 493230 492229 490227 489225 488226
      487226 485226 484227 484228 482229 483231 485231 486232
      488233 488234 489236 490237 490239 492240 494238
 0.01 475091 476089 476086 476084 475081 473081 471083 471086
      471088 471091 472093 474093 475091
 0.01 474074 472073 470071 471068 470066 469064 468065 468068
      469070 470071 472073 474074 474074
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 356732 355724 352719 349715 346712 342710 337711 333713
      330717 316732 302743 269765 260771 257775 251777 245778
      242780 239783 237787 236792 232796 229800 228805 228810
      228816 226823 230828 233831 235839 237843 243847 247849
      252849 258848 262844 271839 278844 281844 284840 288835
      289831 292825 295822 299820 304819 316817 327814 336809
      343803 348798 355788 354781 352776 349771 350764 353755
      354750 355743 356732
 0.01 345958 343951 339943 335932 333928 330927 323924 317923
      312920 306917 299915 290909 284906 277903 272900 266900
      259903 255908 254915 255919 257920 259922 258925 257928
      257933 257941 258947 262963 266968 270971 274977 279981
      283981 284979 288975 296964 299959 305956 313958 319961
      328968 334969 339965 345958
 0.25 541995 541987 539984 535979 532976 531972 528965 518953
      513947 509944 506945 505950 506960 507971 510978 514987
      518992 520015 522026 523028 525028 529020 534016 537012
      538008 540998 541995
 0.25 516185 516182 516181 515179 515178 513177 512177 510177
      509178 508180 509183 511185 511186 512187 514187 515186
      516185
 0.25 478714 478711 477709 476708 475707 474706 473707 471708
      470709 468711 468712 467714 467717 468719 469721 471721
      472721 473720 474719 476718 477717 478714
 0.25 472158 472153 471150 469148 468146 466144 463142 460143
      460148 458153 460156 463158 466159 470159 472158
 0.25 447111 449109 447109 445108 445109 447111 447111
 0.25 442752 442751 440752 440753 440754 442752 442752
 0.25 429243 428239 424238 421237 418236 416237 413238 412240
      410244 410248 414249 417249 419249 422248 424246 427245
      429243
 0.25 342755 341746 339742 335741 331742 324744 313753 304759
      290766 279771 266778 259780 254783 238802 234808 236812
      240813 248811 255811 269812 277811 284812 292813 299813
      306813 313811 320809 326805 336798 340792 341789 341784
      340775 340768 342755
 0.25 324949 323946 321943 319941 317940 316938 312938 310941
      312945 314946 316948 319949 321951 324949
 0.25 279947 277947 277948 279948 279947
 0.50 466154 467152 466150 464150 463151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 422243 423241 422241 421239 419239 417239 416241 417242
      418243 420244 422243 422243
 0.50 337758 336756 333754 327754 317759 307765 298770 287775
      277778 269781 264783 260785 256789 252792 248796 242803
      243805 247806 254805 261804 265805 278807 283807 288808
      295809 301809 313807 319805 323801 330795 334791 334783
      335771 337758
 1.00 328775 328769 325768 320770 313773 308777 303781 298785
      292788 286789 278789 273792 273795 276797 281799 284800
      288800 294799 299802 305803 310802 314800 317797 322791
      325786 328775

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 474619 481621 486625 495634 498638 500645 502654 502664
      501674 499678 497681 491681 484680 476683 469688 466695
      459707 454715 451722 449741 447750 443756 441758 440754
      439743 440722 441714 442711 445708 449701 452692 454685
      457680 462671 465665 466660 465654 460649 453648 447651
      443646 440640 447632 454626
 0.01 520258 521253 520250 517246 514242 512239 509227 503220
      496213 488210 485212 485216 484222 487226 488230 486233
      482233 477230 472234 471238 470240 471244 476246 479249
      479254 478257 476262 471272 469276 471281 478287 482291
      487294 493290 502286 508280 513271 515264 518261 520258
 0.01 533979 533961 533949 530939 527930 526907 526901 525898
      524892 522886 517863 514854 513848 511845 507837 504831
      500824 495817 489810 484805 472797 470793 467792 459790
      445789 410796 395802 390803 388806 383809 378817 372824
      364836 361842 357850 356853 356858 357861 360865 360869
      359872 356875 350881 347888 345896 346906 347909 350910
      359910 362908 364905 367901 371898 373895 376893 377896
      379898 382896 385895 387893 388896 392913 398929 401935
      403938 409945 414947 417950 419954 423961 426967 431973
      431978 429980 428982 428986 429990 436994 441993 443996
      448003 473017 491023 499024 503024 505022 509022 512020
      517015 521010 525002 528996 530989 533979
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 430885 427879 424874 421870 415866 408866 407868 403869
      399874 402876 405875 409875 409877 411882 414882 420884
      425886 427887 430885
 0.01 408702 406693 402688 398686 395680 389674 383675 378674
      356682 339694 304721 283733 273738 265744 251760 245769
      243773 242777 241782 244784 249784 254783 258779 266774
      275779 280783 283788 291793 299799 309801 317801 323799
      333794 349782 354777 357773 362763 363757 363753 365751
      374745 389729 399723 404715 407708 408702
 0.25 510260 511257 512255 511252 511250 510249 509247 508246
      508245 507245 506245 505246 504247 504249 503252 504253
      504255 504257 504259 506260 506261 507262 508262 509261
      510260
 0.25 501939 502937 501934 501931 500929 499928 498926 497925
      496924 495924 495927 495929 495932 495934 496935 496937
      496939 497941 498942 499943 500942 501940 501939
 0.25 490909 488899 485896 484892 485884 484877 481867 478857
      475849 466834 461828 459832 460834 463843 464850 463854
      464881 463905 464910 466915 469917 472914 478907 481906
      484908 489912 490909
 0.25 388705 388698 385695 380691 367687 359688 352691 342700
      331711 322721 313733 304742 294745 288749 284755 289757
      298760 299766 300775 304780 317786 325786 331784 344776
      349770 352766 365737 375726 382715 387709 388705
 0.50 376708 376702 374700 371696 367693 363692 356694 351697
      343704 335712 328719 321728 316737 310746 307750 305755
      305764 307769 313777 319780 325781 331780 335777 344769
      350761 358740 371722 376708
 1.00 363717 363710 361707 354703 348707 342713 336718 331724
      323737 315751 313759 314763 316767 322772 325774 330774
      335772 338769 342764 350749 356734 360727 363719 363717
 1.50 357723 357718 355714 349714 343717 339720 335725 332730
      327740 322752 320757 321763 326767 331769 336765 339762
      345751 350740 355729 357723
 2.00 353726 352721 348720 345721 340724 335730 331738 327746
      324756 324760 327764 331765 335763 340755 343748 347739
      352731 353726
 3.00 346732 344728 340731 338734 335738 333743 333748 333752
      334751 337747 339744 342739 343736 346732 346732

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 051030
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL QPF AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
BE GOOD...BUT HAD SHOWN TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER ONSET AND GREATER
EMPHASIS ON WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH DECREASING EXPECTATIONS OVER
OREGON. FOR THE 06Z PRELIMINARY PACKAGE WPC HAD MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST...BUT IN THE FINAL 0830Z PACKAGE WE FOLLOWED
THE TREND IN THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS TO DELAY TIMING AND DECREASE
AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS BEING CONFINED TO
THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS AT 10Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT
ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDES...AND A
RETURN FETCH OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING ONE LOCAL
MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE
RETURNING MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
GEFS PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH
EVENT TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...AIDING THE
PRODUCTION OF GENERALLY LIGHT QPF.  A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON DAY
2/EARLY ON DAY 3.  AS THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH THEN MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.  MOISTURE AND
LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON DAY 3 BUT
THERE HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT OF A SIGNAL AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW.  THE ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO QUICK TO SWEEP THE
SYSTEM OUT BUT THE NAM SEEMED TO BE TOO WET IN PLACES WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS GENERALLY NOT FOUND IN SUCH A SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE
QPF WAS LARGELY BASED ON THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH MOST EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS.

WHILE MUCH OF THE PCPN TIED TO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE
OF A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THE 00Z MODELS GOT
INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR QPF.

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE ON
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL. AFTER THAT TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
CONTINUES CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE TENDED TO FAVOR A SOLN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF
AND MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM.

A SURFACE FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD
INITIALLY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.  THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEPARATING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM PW CLOSER TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF
THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. WE ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE HERE.

A SURFACE WAVE SPINS UP ALONG THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF THE FL
EAST COAST. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS
IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.  ONCE AGAIN...WE
TENDED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND LEAST
ON THE ECMWF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487634 489649 489654 487658 475673 467681
      461691 456699 452706 442721 436730 429737 415751 401761
      394766 387770 380773 376774 367772 350764 343761 338762
      335764 325777 320785 313794 302808 299811 293813 286814
      278811 272808 265804 261801 258797 255797 252799 248802
      241809 237816 235823 232827 230828 228818 227810 231800
      239781 243773 249768 256764 266762 270764 272766 271770
      272773 277771 281772 282776 279780 276783 269789 269792
      272795 278794 282792 287787 294780 301773 317759 324755
      330750 336743 340737 353720 358714 367707 381696 389681
      400666 407657 415649 425642 432637 437632
 0.01 541203 539196 537190 535182 535175 532170 526166 517158
      499145 490135 486131 483129 480128 469125 468127 469133
      466133 464131 456130 451131 450133 451136 454141 453145
      450144 445145 443145 441143 438139 436140 435143 434152
      437158 442169 444174 446177 446180 441183 439185 438191
      438198 439202 442204 443209 439211 429213 421222 417222
      415224 412229 404236 396242 391245 387248 385250 383254
      385257 389257 394257 399260 404263 403269 401277 400286
      406298 410302 415304 427309 435311 441311 448314 454314
      464315 474314 484313 495309 501306 508300 524262 522252
      520242 518234 516227 512218 508211 507208 509202 514208
      520213 523214 525213 530219 531221 534223
 0.01 504826 503822 502819 500814 496812 490812 484813 478817
      475817 473819 469820 465819 463814 459811 455808 455802
      455797 456793 455784 452779 449780 448782 447790 445796
      439804 436806 435811 433816 439815 441814 444817 452822
      455827 456834 449845 445858 442873 442879 440882 441886
      441896 442905 438918 435931 433937 432946 429952 428955
      428960 428964 429966 433971 440981 443993 444997 444002
      446007 448010 451010 456008 462996 467986 472973 478959
      487936 489927 492920 494914 496906 501878 502868 502858
      501839 504826
 0.01 475197 475192 473189 470188 467187 465189 463191 461193
      459195 456199 458203 461203 463203 465204 467205 469203
      471201 474199 475197
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 443098 439098 438099
      434099 435105 437105 437110 440112 442118 444123 448121
      453117 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 432106 430106 428106 427106 426108 428108 430106 432106
      432106
 0.01 414064 412061 410059 407058 404058 402056 398055 391063
      389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063 405065
      403065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 416968 415963 412964 405973 396993 392003 386015 373030
      366034 362038 364041 365048 364052 361054 361056 364054
      369053 375054 379051 382046 386043 390041 394037 399016
      403006 407993 416970 416968
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 365979 361973 362969 363963 361958 359956 354952
      346949 330944 317940 312939 309941 307943 305947 298949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 258939 255941 254945
      254955 256961 258964 261966 268971 280978 290989 301996
      315988 321986 325981 326978 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344985 344990 343001 345004 349005 355000 363995
      368985
 0.25 461623 468624 471625 473628 476633 478638 479645 478651
      471665 466673 461680 452692 440706 431716 418729 407738
      398744 390747 381749 374749 366747 362745 359740 361733
      366726 370720 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 438637
      443632 450627
 0.25 530200 529191 526182 523176 517171 511167 507165 503165
      497165 492164 490162 487159 485156 483156 479157 473158
      475161 478163 483167 488175 491181 499185 505188 511194
      523203 527204 530200
 0.25 519274 520264 519254 518244 514235 511227 507220 498205
      493200 486200 479202 473206 467210 461212 454213 446216
      434220 434236 427236 420235 416237 414240 411243 411247
      418249 421250 423252 421265 422270 425271 430274 432277
      437277 443284 449290 457293 464294 481296 494296 501294
      508291 514285 518278 519274
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 459180 459180
 0.50 518271 519263 518256 515243 511231 505220 499211 495206
      488204 483204 479205 470211 462215 457219 458224 457229
      454231 449233 446235 446238 448241 453244 459247 465250
      480267 485277 493287 497290 501290 506288 510284 515277
      518271
 0.50 523189 521184 518179 513175 507174 504172 500171 496174
      502177 505178 506180 510186 515189 520192 522192 523189
 0.50 471645 471639 470635 466630 459627 457627 453628 447632
      443637 438641 432648 424658 414670 407680 397693 380714
      377720 375726 372733 371736 373737 378736 393733 400732
      406729 416721 423715 428711 446690 455680 464665 468657
      471645
 1.00 513271 515264 515256 513245 509235 504224 499217 496212
      491209 481207 477209 475214 481219 487222 489226 492237
      486238 483240 481237 480232 476229 471229 469235 470241
      473245 477249 480252 482257 487267 492275 495280 499284
      504285 507282 513272 513271
 1.00 463640 461636 457634 452636 448641 439647 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 387713 385718 384721 386722
      392720 401714 407710 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685
      444676 451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 510257 512253 511249 509241 507235 504228 501223 498219
      495217 493218 492221 492226 494233 497239 500244 503249
      506256 510257
 1.50 505281 506277 506272 504265 501259 498255 494249 491244
      489242 486243 485251 487259 490265 493269 497276 499281
      502282 505281
 1.50 487213 486211 484210 484209 483209 481208 479210 478213
      479213 480215 482215 483216 485215 486215 487213 487213
 1.50 478243 480241 480239 479236 478233 476232 474232 473233
      472234 471236 472238 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244
      478244 478243
 1.50 448653 447650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417681 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503276 503269 501264 499260 497256 494251 491247 489247
      488254 489259 491263 493266 496271 499275 501277 503276
 2.00 506245 506240 505237 503234 502231 500228 499225 498223
      494223 495228 495231 497234 498237 500240 502243 503244
      506245
 2.00 477240 478238 477236 477235 476235 475235 474235 473236
      474238 474239 475240 477241 477240

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 480616 488623 492627 495632 497636 501640 506650 516674
      517682 518686 519689 521703 524729 523758 521768 525776
      527786 526790 526794 524797 520809 516814 513819 509828
      502837 499840 497846 496852 494859 500869 505876 514889
      519896 523905 528912 530918 533922 541936 547946 551951
      555954 558957 560961 562968 563976 562994 560008 557024
      556038 553049 550057 544063 538068 531072 526078 525081
      526083 527089 530100 530103 532105 535110 541119 542122
      541130 539137 537146 535153 534160 530173 529178 530183
      533187 536193 538197 539199 538203 533206 525206 517204
      512198 509195 506195 503195 500191 499185 496181 493176
      491175 489177 488180 486180 483176 481174 478173 473174
      469172 467170 466173 466177 464181 462183 456190 450195
      449189 449179 446172 441166 437158 435153 435148 435143
      437140 439139 442142 446143 448140 450134 451128 435117
      428125 424129 423126 423121 426115 422111 423105 428103
      430101 430098 427091 428089 430093 433095 436097 438095
      445094 451093 454096 456100 457096 451088 446083 443080
      437079 434076 433072 435069 443067 448070 451073 457082
      459086 461092 463099 464101 467102 472103 475106 476109
      473114 471118 473122 481126 486127 489130 497136 508147
      513149 515152 517151 517147 516143 513129 509124 505125
      500124 497121 490113 487107 483103 483100 481099 477099
      474096 470095 465087 459081 455074 451065 447063 443058
      437056 434052 433048 433037 437028 437026 440026 442026
      444029 452026 460022 464018 463012 463007 461003 460000
      455991 452980 452974 454968 457964 462964 465961 467957
      472940 469940 465937 463933 462929 460926 461921 462915
      465910 467910 468906 464902 461898 461889 456878 454874
      453866 445870 440873 435874 430874 426872 424872 424867
      424859 427852 435847 434839 433833 431827 426827 422827
      420824 418821 416819 414819 411814 410808 408803 413784
 0.01 413784 418776 423772 425767 423763 421759 421754 420747
      423744 430740 433738 436734 432733 427734 427729 430728
      432725 435726 438721 437714 438711 442709 447702 448698
      445695 444690 442686 441677 442664 442658 443654 445644
      449638 453631 457629 459626 462625 464622
 0.01 470332 487315 491312 496310 501310 505308 508302 511294
      517278 522263 524258 524251 514240 511235 508228 505222
      502217 500213 499210 496210 492209 489206 487204 483203
      478204 473207 465211 460212 455212 444213 438212 433215
      425220 429231 426233 423234 416232 408232 404233 400236
      401240 402243 401247 398253 391267 388274 388278 394278
      398277 406274 415265 424258 432251 436248 438241 441235
      446231 453231 458229 461226 463225 466226 472236 472240
      474244 476246 477251 476255 474259 471265 465277 463282
      461291 457313 457327
 0.01 494238 494236 493233 493230 492229 490227 489225 488226
      487226 485226 484227 484228 482229 483231 485231 486232
      488233 488234 489236 490237 490239 492240 494238
 0.01 475091 476089 476086 476084 475081 473081 471083 471086
      471088 471091 472093 474093 475091
 0.01 474074 472073 470071 471068 470066 469064 468065 468068
      469070 470071 472073 474074 474074
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 356732 355724 352719 349715 346712 342710 337711 333713
      330717 316732 302743 269765 260771 257775 251777 245778
      242780 239783 237787 236792 232796 229800 228805 228810
      228816 226823 230828 233831 235839 237843 243847 247849
      252849 258848 262844 271839 278844 281844 284840 288835
      289831 292825 295822 299820 304819 316817 327814 336809
      343803 348798 355788 354781 352776 349771 350764 353755
      354750 355743 356732
 0.01 345958 343951 339943 335932 333928 330927 323924 317923
      312920 306917 299915 290909 284906 277903 272900 266900
      259903 255908 254915 255919 257920 259922 258925 257928
      257933 257941 258947 262963 266968 270971 274977 279981
      283981 284979 288975 296964 299959 305956 313958 319961
      328968 334969 339965 345958
 0.25 541995 541987 539984 535979 532976 531972 528965 518953
      513947 509944 506945 505950 506960 507971 510978 514987
      518992 520015 522026 523028 525028 529020 534016 537012
      538008 540998 541995
 0.25 516185 516182 516181 515179 515178 513177 512177 510177
      509178 508180 509183 511185 511186 512187 514187 515186
      516185
 0.25 478714 478711 477709 476708 475707 474706 473707 471708
      470709 468711 468712 467714 467717 468719 469721 471721
      472721 473720 474719 476718 477717 478714
 0.25 472158 472153 471150 469148 468146 466144 463142 460143
      460148 458153 460156 463158 466159 470159 472158
 0.25 447111 449109 447109 445108 445109 447111 447111
 0.25 442752 442751 440752 440753 440754 442752 442752
 0.25 429243 428239 424238 421237 418236 416237 413238 412240
      410244 410248 414249 417249 419249 422248 424246 427245
      429243
 0.25 342755 341746 339742 335741 331742 324744 313753 304759
      290766 279771 266778 259780 254783 238802 234808 236812
      240813 248811 255811 269812 277811 284812 292813 299813
      306813 313811 320809 326805 336798 340792 341789 341784
      340775 340768 342755
 0.25 324949 323946 321943 319941 317940 316938 312938 310941
      312945 314946 316948 319949 321951 324949
 0.25 279947 277947 277948 279948 279947
 0.50 466154 467152 466150 464150 463151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 422243 423241 422241 421239 419239 417239 416241 417242
      418243 420244 422243 422243
 0.50 337758 336756 333754 327754 317759 307765 298770 287775
      277778 269781 264783 260785 256789 252792 248796 242803
      243805 247806 254805 261804 265805 278807 283807 288808
      295809 301809 313807 319805 323801 330795 334791 334783
      335771 337758
 1.00 328775 328769 325768 320770 313773 308777 303781 298785
      292788 286789 278789 273792 273795 276797 281799 284800
      288800 294799 299802 305803 310802 314800 317797 322791
      325786 328775

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 474619 481621 486625 495634 498638 500645 502654 502664
      501674 499678 497681 491681 484680 476683 469688 466695
      459707 454715 451722 449741 447750 443756 441758 440754
      439743 440722 441714 442711 445708 449701 452692 454685
      457680 462671 465665 466660 465654 460649 453648 447651
      443646 440640 447632 454626
 0.01 520258 521253 520250 517246 514242 512239 509227 503220
      496213 488210 485212 485216 484222 487226 488230 486233
      482233 477230 472234 471238 470240 471244 476246 479249
      479254 478257 476262 471272 469276 471281 478287 482291
      487294 493290 502286 508280 513271 515264 518261 520258
 0.01 533979 533961 533949 530939 527930 526907 526901 525898
      524892 522886 517863 514854 513848 511845 507837 504831
      500824 495817 489810 484805 472797 470793 467792 459790
      445789 410796 395802 390803 388806 383809 378817 372824
      364836 361842 357850 356853 356858 357861 360865 360869
      359872 356875 350881 347888 345896 346906 347909 350910
      359910 362908 364905 367901 371898 373895 376893 377896
      379898 382896 385895 387893 388896 392913 398929 401935
      403938 409945 414947 417950 419954 423961 426967 431973
      431978 429980 428982 428986 429990 436994 441993 443996
      448003 473017 491023 499024 503024 505022 509022 512020
      517015 521010 525002 528996 530989 533979
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 430885 427879 424874 421870 415866 408866 407868 403869
      399874 402876 405875 409875 409877 411882 414882 420884
      425886 427887 430885
 0.01 408702 406693 402688 398686 395680 389674 383675 378674
      356682 339694 304721 283733 273738 265744 251760 245769
      243773 242777 241782 244784 249784 254783 258779 266774
      275779 280783 283788 291793 299799 309801 317801 323799
      333794 349782 354777 357773 362763 363757 363753 365751
      374745 389729 399723 404715 407708 408702
 0.25 510260 511257 512255 511252 511250 510249 509247 508246
      508245 507245 506245 505246 504247 504249 503252 504253
      504255 504257 504259 506260 506261 507262 508262 509261
      510260
 0.25 501939 502937 501934 501931 500929 499928 498926 497925
      496924 495924 495927 495929 495932 495934 496935 496937
      496939 497941 498942 499943 500942 501940 501939
 0.25 490909 488899 485896 484892 485884 484877 481867 478857
      475849 466834 461828 459832 460834 463843 464850 463854
      464881 463905 464910 466915 469917 472914 478907 481906
      484908 489912 490909
 0.25 388705 388698 385695 380691 367687 359688 352691 342700
      331711 322721 313733 304742 294745 288749 284755 289757
      298760 299766 300775 304780 317786 325786 331784 344776
      349770 352766 365737 375726 382715 387709 388705
 0.50 376708 376702 374700 371696 367693 363692 356694 351697
      343704 335712 328719 321728 316737 310746 307750 305755
      305764 307769 313777 319780 325781 331780 335777 344769
      350761 358740 371722 376708
 1.00 363717 363710 361707 354703 348707 342713 336718 331724
      323737 315751 313759 314763 316767 322772 325774 330774
      335772 338769 342764 350749 356734 360727 363719 363717
 1.50 357723 357718 355714 349714 343717 339720 335725 332730
      327740 322752 320757 321763 326767 331769 336765 339762
      345751 350740 355729 357723
 2.00 353726 352721 348720 345721 340724 335730 331738 327746
      324756 324760 327764 331765 335763 340755 343748 347739
      352731 353726
 3.00 346732 344728 340731 338734 335738 333743 333748 333752
      334751 337747 339744 342739 343736 346732 346732

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF...AND AGAIN THE 00Z RUN...WAS QUITE
FLAT WITH THIS WAVE...AND FORECASTS LESS PRECIPITATION. WPC LEANED
ON THE SIDE OF CONSENSUS...AWAY FROM THE DRIER ECMWF...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDED SUCH GOOD DETAIL THAT WE
INTRODUCED NEARLY ZERO CHANGE IN THE 06Z UPDATE.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO AT
06Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN
FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE
WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDE...AND A MODEST RETURN FETCH OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH EVENT
TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...AIDING THE
PRODUCTION OF GENERALLY LIGHT QPF.  A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES
OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON DAY
2/EARLY ON DAY 3.  AS THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH THEN MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.  MOISTURE AND
LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON DAY 3 BUT
THERE HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT OF A SIGNAL AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW.  THE ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO QUICK TO SWEEP THE
SYSTEM OUT BUT THE NAM SEEMED TO BE TOO WET IN PLACES WHERE HIGHER
QPF IS GENERALLY NOT FOUND IN SUCH A SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE
QPF WAS LARGELY BASED ON THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH MOST EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS.

WHILE MUCH OF THE PCPN TIED TO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE
OF A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THE 00Z MODELS GOT
INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SO A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST APPROACH FOR QPF.

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE ON
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL. AFTER THAT TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
CONTINUES CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE TENDED TO FAVOR A SOLN AWAY FROM THE ECMWF
AND MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM.

A SURFACE FRONT TIED TO A SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOULD
INITIALLY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.  THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEPARATING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM PW CLOSER TO 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES NORTH OF
THE FRONT.  INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. WE ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE HERE.

A SURFACE WAVE SPINS UP ALONG THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF THE FL
EAST COAST. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS
IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.  ONCE AGAIN...WE
TENDED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND LEAST
ON THE ECMWF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487635 489648 489653 487658 475672 463688
      458697 453704 449712 445718 439726 433732 426739 418745
      410750 403756 388763 380766 371766 361767 355767 351767
      349766 343766 339764 336763 333767 328773 323780 318787
      313793 302808 298811 293813 286814 278811 272808 264804
      261802 258805 244818 238818 235820 234826 231828 229827
      229820 228815 227813 233796 236787 240778 245771 252766
      260763 264762 268764 272766 271770 270773 268777 265781
      263786 267790 271791 272795 277794 282792 285789 295779
      307767 314761 324755 331749 336743 341736 345730 356716
      362710 372703 380698 384691 388683 393677 398669 403662
      410655 414651 418647 427640 437632
 0.01 541203 534177 533173 532170 526166 517159 500146 483129
      476128 472125 468125 469131 469133 466134 462130 455130
      450131 451137 454139 454143 444146 437138 435143 434152
      440164 442169 440174 434184 432186 431191 430196 431200
      434205 431211 424217 417226 407232 399240 394240 391243
      388250 387256 385265 381273 378288 381290 385288 389286
      394287 393294 401297 406300 412303 424307 435311 442312
      449314 470314 480313 491311 499307 508300 524262 523259
      523258 523256 523254 522251 523248 523246 523243 524240
      524238 525235 525233 525230 526228 526225 527223 527220
      528218 530219 531220 532222 534223 536224
 0.01 504826 503821 502819 499814 496812 489812 483814 481816
      478817 475818 472820 469820 465819 463814 458810 455807
      455801 455796 456792 455784 451779 448782 447790 444797
      441801 438805 436806 435811 433816 439815 440813 442815
      444817 453823 455829 455835 449844 445858 442873 441887
      441904 441911 438918 431947 429953 428955 428960 429966
      433971 436976 440983 441989 443993 444998 444003 446007
      448010 453010 456008 462996 467986 478959 487934 496906
      499891 501878 502867 502859 501839 504826
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 441101 437105 438110
      441115 443120 446123 450119 454115 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 411059 407058 404058 402056 398055
      391063 389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063
      405065 402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072
      412068 410066 414064
 0.01 417970 416966 412963 409968 407973 399000 398006 395011
      390022 383029 378031 373030 366034 362038 362041 365043
      363054 365052 368053 374054 379051 382047 396030 401021
      404007 408996 412982 417970
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 361972 363968 363962 359956 353952 349951 346949
      330944 316940 312939 309941 307943 305947 297949 293949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 257939 254945 254956
      257961 261966 268971 280978 290989 296994 298996 302996
      315988 321986 324983 325980 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344986 344991 344002 345004 349005 355000 364994
      368985
 0.01 256795 254792 252790 250789 247789 247791 248794 248798
      247800 245803 244805 242807 245807 247805 248803 250801
      252799 254797 256795
 0.25 461623 468624 474629 478638 479644 478651 470665 466672
      461680 451692 440705 430717 418729 406739 398744 391745
      382746 375746 370747 365746 361745 360740 362732 366726
      370719 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 427650 438637
      444632 450627
 0.25 519274 520263 519253 518243 515232 511225 508219 503212
      498204 496201 492199 484199 479201 472206 466209 460211
      446216 439217 434220 428235 419234 413236 409242 407245
      405252 407261 408265 410268 421280 425281 430283 437284
      445285 453287 461288 468288 474291 483295 492298 497297
      504294 510289 515283 519274
 0.25 529204 530198 531191 526182 521176 515171 508167 504165
      500165 497165 493163 487158 484156 481155 477157 473157
      469157 467160 467166 470168 475171 477173 481181 483186
      485189 489188 494188 501188 506188 510190 520203 525207
      529204
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 451173 451173
 0.50 517273 519263 518253 513235 510228 506221 502215 496208
      490205 483204 477206 471210 460215 453218 450223 456226
      455230 453231 446233 441237 435240 427238 419236 416237
      413243 414248 416251 419257 421260 424262 429263 433261
      444257 447256 451256 458261 463261 470265 476270 481276
      491287 495290 499291 505289 512282 517273
 0.50 523195 523193 522192 521191 521192 523195 523195
 0.50 504176 504173 502172 500172 499172 499173 497174 498176
      500176 502177 503177 504176
 0.50 485230 485228 484228 482227 482226 482227 483229 483230
      485231 485230
 0.50 471645 471639 470634 466629 460627 457627 453628 443637
      437642 432648 424658 414670 406681 397693 380714 374726
      371734 370736 374736 404730 415722 420718 426712 434703
      445691 454681 458675 462668 468658 470651 471645
 1.00 515267 516259 515252 513245 511238 506226 499216 488209
      482207 476210 473214 469216 463216 458219 458223 462225
      466222 470218 475216 480219 485220 489226 491234 491237
      489237 484239 482238 481235 480231 477228 471229 468234
      468239 469242 472248 480256 487267 493277 497283 501285
      506284 509279 515267
 1.00 463640 461636 457635 452637 448641 438648 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 386714 384718 385722 387722
      392720 402713 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685 444676
      451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 512255 511246 509238 505231 501223 497218 494218 492222
      493231 497239 501246 504252 506256 510258 512255
 1.50 505281 506276 506271 503262 499255 495249 491242 488241
      485243 483246 484251 487259 490265 495272 498279 501282
      505281
 1.50 486213 486211 485209 484209 483208 481208 479210 478210
      478213 479214 480216 482216 483216 485215 485214 486213
 1.50 480246 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233
      478232 476231 475231 473231 473232 471233 470236 471238
      472240 472241 473243 474244 474245 476246 477246 479246
      480246
 1.50 448653 446650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417682 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503275 503269 501264 499260 497255 494251 492248 490246
      488246 488254 489259 491263 493267 496270 499275 501277
      503275
 2.00 507248 506242 507240 505235 502231 500227 498223 496222
      494225 496231 498235 500240 503244 505247 507248
 2.00 478241 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 473234 472236
      473239 475241 476243 478241

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 480616 488623 492627 495632 501640 506650 511662 515674
      521703 523719 524728 523734 524747 524754 523759 521770
      524775 525780 527783 526787 526794 524797 520808 516814
      513820 509828 505832 502837 499840 498845 494858 496864
      499868 505876 514889 519896 522903 528912 529916 531920
      541936 547946 551951 555955 558958 561962 563969 563976
      562994 561999 560007 557022 556038 555045 553049 550057
      544063 539066 528076 526077 525082 527089 530100 531105
      534110 542120 540132 539138 537147 535159 530172 529174
      529179 531184 533187 536193 538198 539201 538203 531206
      527205 525206 516203 511197 509195 505195 501194 500191
      496181 493176 492174 490176 488180 486179 483175 478173
      473173 470173 467171 466173 465180 462183 456189 450195
      449188 449179 445172 441166 438159 435150 435144 437140
      439139 443142 446143 449139 451128 434118 428125 424129
      423126 425104 429102 430100 429096 427090 428090 432094
      434097 438095 447093 451093 454096 456100 457096 454091
      450088 445082 442080 437079 434076 433073 435070 437068
      441067 444067 448070 451073 457083 462093 463099 467102
      472103 475106 476109 473114 471118 471121 473122 482126
      487127 490130 498136 508147 513149 515153 517150 517147
      516143 513129 511126 509124 504125 499124 497120 490112
      488108 485105 483100 480100 471096 465086 458079 454071
      449063 447063 444059 436055 434052 432047 433037 435031
      437028 437026 439026 442026 444029 446030 447028 449027
      453026 457023 461022 464018 465013 461003 458998 457993
      453988 452983 452976 453970 457964 461964 464962 471946
      473941 469940 466937 463934 461929 460923 463913 466910
      468907 466903 462899 461892 460884 457880 455875 454870
      453866 450866 446869 438873 431874 427873 424870 424864
      424858 425855 427852 431851 434849 435844 433838 433832
      433829 431826 426827 422827 419823 416818 412817 410812
      408806 409802 411797 411793 414788
 0.01 414788 413783 416778 421773 424770 424765 421759 420747
      423744 427743 435737 435733 431733 427733 427729 432725
      435726 437724 437719 437714 439711 443708 445705 448702
      447697 441679 441657 443647 446641 452634 454631 458629
      464622
 0.01 470332 487315 491312 497310 500310 505308 511294 517278
      521265 523259 524251 518245 514240 510234 508228 505222
      502218 500213 499210 496210 492209 488206 487204 483203
      473207 465211 460212 455212 444213 439212 433215 426220
      429231 427233 423234 416232 408232 404233 400236 401240
      402242 401246 398253 391267 389273 387276 388278 393278
      397277 406274 415265 424258 432252 435248 438241 442235
      446231 453231 458229 462226 466226 472236 472239 474244
      476246 477251 476256 474260 471265 466275 463282 461291
      457313 457327
 0.01 494238 494236 493233 493230 492229 490227 489225 488226
      487226 485226 484227 484228 482229 483231 485231 486232
      488233 488234 489236 490237 490239 492240 494238
 0.01 475091 476089 476086 476084 475081 473081 471083 471086
      471088 471091 472093 474093 475091
 0.01 474074 472073 470071 471068 470066 469064 468065 468068
      469070 470071 472073 474074 474074
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 356732 355723 352719 349715 345712 341710 337711 333713
      330717 316732 302743 269765 260771 257775 251777 246777
      243779 239783 237787 236792 232796 229800 228806 228811
      228816 226823 230828 233832 235839 237843 243847 247849
      252849 258848 262844 271839 277844 281844 284840 288835
      289831 292825 295822 300820 304819 316817 327814 336809
      343803 348798 355788 354782 352776 350771 350765 353755
      354750 355743 356732
 0.01 345958 343951 339943 335932 332928 330927 323924 318923
      312920 306917 299915 290909 284906 277903 272900 266900
      259903 255908 254915 255919 257920 259922 258925 257928
      257933 257941 258947 262963 266968 270971 274977 279981
      282981 284979 288975 296964 300959 305956 313958 319961
      328968 334969 339965 345958
 0.25 541995 541987 539984 535979 532976 531972 528965 518953
      513947 509944 506945 505950 506960 507973 510979 514988
      518992 520015 523023 526023 528021 534016 537011 541995
 0.25 516185 516182 516181 515179 515178 513177 512177 510177
      509178 508180 509183 511185 511186 512187 514187 515186
      516185
 0.25 478714 478711 477709 476708 475707 474706 473707 471708
      470709 468711 468712 467714 467717 468719 469721 471721
      472721 473720 474719 476718 477717 478714
 0.25 472158 472153 471150 469148 468146 466144 463142 460143
      460148 458153 460156 463158 466159 470159 472158
 0.25 447111 449109 447109 445108 445109 447111 447111
 0.25 442752 442751 440752 440753 440754 442752 442752
 0.25 429243 428239 424238 421237 418236 416237 413238 412240
      410244 410248 414249 417249 419249 422248 424246 427245
      429243
 0.25 342755 341746 339742 335741 331741 324744 313753 304759
      290766 279771 266778 259780 254783 238802 234808 236812
      240813 247811 255811 269812 277811 284812 292813 299813
      306813 313811 321809 326805 336798 340792 341789 341784
      340775 340768 342755
 0.25 324949 323946 321943 319941 317940 316938 312938 310941
      312945 314946 316948 319949 321951 324949
 0.25 279947 277947 277948 279948 279947
 0.50 466154 467152 466150 464150 463151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 422243 423241 422241 421239 419239 417239 416241 417242
      418243 420244 422243 422243
 0.50 337758 336755 333754 327754 317759 307765 298770 287775
      277778 269781 264783 260785 256789 252792 248796 242803
      243805 247806 254805 260804 265805 278807 283807 288808
      295809 301809 313807 319805 323801 330795 334791 334783
      335771 337758
 1.00 328775 328769 325768 320770 313773 308777 303781 298785
      292788 286789 278789 273792 273795 276797 281799 284800
      288800 294799 299802 305803 310802 314800 317797 322791
      325786 328775

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 474619 481621 486625 495634 498638 500645 502654 502664
      501674 499678 497681 491681 484680 476683 469688 466695
      459707 454715 451722 449741 447750 443756 441758 440754
      439743 440722 441714 442711 445708 449701 452692 454685
      457680 462671 465665 466660 465654 460649 453648 447651
      443646 440640 447632 454626
 0.01 520258 521253 520250 517246 514242 512239 509227 503220
      496213 488210 485212 485216 484222 487226 488230 486233
      482233 477230 472234 471238 470240 471244 476246 479249
      479254 478257 476262 471272 469276 471281 478287 482291
      487294 493290 502286 508280 513271 515264 518261 520258
 0.01 533979 533961 533949 530939 527930 526907 526901 525898
      524892 522886 517863 514854 513848 511845 507837 504831
      500824 495817 489810 484805 472797 470793 467792 459790
      445789 410796 395802 390803 388806 383809 378817 372824
      364836 361842 357850 356853 356858 357861 360865 360869
      359872 356875 350881 347888 345896 346906 347909 350910
      359910 362908 364905 367901 371898 373895 376893 377896
      379898 382896 385895 387893 388896 392913 398929 401935
      403938 409945 414947 417950 419954 423961 426967 431973
      431978 429980 428982 428986 429990 436994 441993 443996
      448003 473017 491023 499024 503024 505022 509022 512020
      517015 521010 525002 528996 530989 533979
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 430885 427879 424874 421870 415866 408866 407868 403869
      399874 402876 405875 409875 409877 411882 414882 420884
      425886 427887 430885
 0.01 408702 406693 402688 398686 395680 389674 383675 378674
      356682 339694 304721 283733 273738 265744 251760 245769
      243773 242777 241782 244784 249784 254783 258779 266774
      275779 280783 283788 291793 299799 309801 317801 323799
      333794 349782 354777 357773 362763 363757 363753 365751
      374745 389729 399723 404715 407708 408702
 0.25 510260 511257 512255 511252 511250 510249 509247 508246
      508245 507245 506245 505246 504247 504249 503252 504253
      504255 504257 504259 506260 506261 507262 508262 509261
      510260
 0.25 501939 502937 501934 501931 500929 499928 498926 497925
      496924 495924 495927 495929 495932 495934 496935 496937
      496939 497941 498942 499943 500942 501940 501939
 0.25 490909 488899 485896 484892 485884 484877 481867 478857
      475849 466834 461828 459832 460834 463843 464850 463854
      464881 463905 464910 466915 469917 472914 478907 481906
      484908 489912 490909
 0.25 388705 388698 385695 380691 367687 359688 352691 342700
      331711 322721 313733 304742 294745 288749 284755 289757
      298760 299766 300775 304780 317786 325786 331784 344776
      349770 352766 365737 375726 382715 387709 388705
 0.50 376708 376702 374700 371696 367693 363692 356694 351697
      343704 335712 328719 321728 316737 310746 307750 305755
      305764 307769 313777 319780 325781 331780 335777 344769
      350761 358740 371722 376708
 1.00 363717 363710 361707 354703 348707 342713 336718 331724
      323737 315751 313759 314763 316767 322772 325774 330774
      335772 338769 342764 350749 356734 360727 363719 363717
 1.50 357723 357718 355714 349714 343717 339720 335725 332730
      327740 322752 320757 321763 326767 331769 336765 339762
      345751 350740 355729 357723
 2.00 353726 352721 348720 345721 340724 335730 331738 327746
      324756 324760 327764 331765 335763 340755 343748 347739
      352731 353726
 3.00 346732 344728 340731 338734 335738 333743 333748 333752
      334751 337747 339744 342739 343736 346732 346732

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 050757
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAY 1...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST...

A FAST MOVING INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THAT HAS TRENDED WESTWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND. SOME MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE THE STORM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE AREAS EXPECTING SNOW HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
AND WEST...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW NOW EXPECTED FROM LONG
ISLAND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN A MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND DOWNEAST MAINE WITH EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
FOOT OF SNOW.   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN NEW YORK CITY BY
AFTERNOON AFTER A CHANGEOVER THIS MORNING WHILE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
TAPER OFF IN BOSTON BY EVENING AFTER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY.


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 2 BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BUT SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...

A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN ON MONDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES/INCREASING WINDS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.  MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL STAY NORTH OF THE US BORDER ON DAY 2...WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FOUR
INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 050745
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAY 1...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST...

A FAST MOVING INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THAT HAS TRENDED WESTWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND. SOME MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD BEFORE THE STORM EXITS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE AREAS EXPECTING SNOW HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
AND WEST...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW NOW EXPECTED FROM LONG
ISLAND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A
FOOT EXCEPT EAST OF MAINE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END IN NEW YORK
CITY BY AFTERNOON AFTER A CHANGEOVER THIS MORNING WHILE SNOW IS
LIKELY TO TAPER OFF IN BOSTON BY EVENING AFTER SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/DAY 2 BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BUT SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...

A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN ON MONDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES/INCREASING WINDS INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.  MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL STAY NORTH OF THE US BORDER ON DAY 2...WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FOUR
INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050652
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050652
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050652
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 06 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 050624
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF...AND AGAIN THE 00Z RUN...WAS QUITE
FLAT WITH THIS WAVE...AND FORECASTS LESS PRECIPITATION. WPC LEANED
ON THE SIDE OF CONSENSUS...AWAY FROM THE DRIER ECMWF...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDED SUCH GOOD DETAIL THAT WE
INTRODUCED NEARLY ZERO CHANGE IN THE 06Z UPDATE.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO AT
06Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN
FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE
WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDE...AND A MODEST RETURN FETCH OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH EVENT
TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487635 489648 489653 487658 475672 463688
      458697 453704 449712 445718 439726 433732 426739 418745
      410750 403756 388763 380766 371766 361767 355767 351767
      349766 343766 339764 336763 333767 328773 323780 318787
      313793 302808 298811 293813 286814 278811 272808 264804
      261802 258805 244818 238818 235820 234826 231828 229827
      229820 228815 227813 233796 236787 240778 245771 252766
      260763 264762 268764 272766 271770 270773 268777 265781
      263786 267790 271791 272795 277794 282792 285789 295779
      307767 314761 324755 331749 336743 341736 345730 356716
      362710 372703 380698 384691 388683 393677 398669 403662
      410655 414651 418647 427640 437632
 0.01 541203 534177 533173 532170 526166 517159 500146 483129
      476128 472125 468125 469131 469133 466134 462130 455130
      450131 451137 454139 454143 444146 437138 435143 434152
      440164 442169 440174 434184 432186 431191 430196 431200
      434205 431211 424217 417226 407232 399240 394240 391243
      388250 387256 385265 381273 378288 381290 385288 389286
      394287 393294 401297 406300 412303 424307 435311 442312
      449314 470314 480313 491311 499307 508300 524262 523259
      523258 523256 523254 522251 523248 523246 523243 524240
      524238 525235 525233 525230 526228 526225 527223 527220
      528218 530219 531220 532222 534223 536224
 0.01 504826 503821 502819 499814 496812 489812 483814 481816
      478817 475818 472820 469820 465819 463814 458810 455807
      455801 455796 456792 455784 451779 448782 447790 444797
      441801 438805 436806 435811 433816 439815 440813 442815
      444817 453823 455829 455835 449844 445858 442873 441887
      441904 441911 438918 431947 429953 428955 428960 429966
      433971 436976 440983 441989 443993 444998 444003 446007
      448010 453010 456008 462996 467986 478959 487934 496906
      499891 501878 502867 502859 501839 504826
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 441101 437105 438110
      441115 443120 446123 450119 454115 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 411059 407058 404058 402056 398055
      391063 389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063
      405065 402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072
      412068 410066 414064
 0.01 417970 416966 412963 409968 407973 399000 398006 395011
      390022 383029 378031 373030 366034 362038 362041 365043
      363054 365052 368053 374054 379051 382047 396030 401021
      404007 408996 412982 417970
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 361972 363968 363962 359956 353952 349951 346949
      330944 316940 312939 309941 307943 305947 297949 293949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 257939 254945 254956
      257961 261966 268971 280978 290989 296994 298996 302996
      315988 321986 324983 325980 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344986 344991 344002 345004 349005 355000 364994
      368985
 0.01 256795 254792 252790 250789 247789 247791 248794 248798
      247800 245803 244805 242807 245807 247805 248803 250801
      252799 254797 256795
 0.25 461623 468624 474629 478638 479644 478651 470665 466672
      461680 451692 440705 430717 418729 406739 398744 391745
      382746 375746 370747 365746 361745 360740 362732 366726
      370719 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 427650 438637
      444632 450627
 0.25 519274 520263 519253 518243 515232 511225 508219 503212
      498204 496201 492199 484199 479201 472206 466209 460211
      446216 439217 434220 428235 419234 413236 409242 407245
      405252 407261 408265 410268 421280 425281 430283 437284
      445285 453287 461288 468288 474291 483295 492298 497297
      504294 510289 515283 519274
 0.25 529204 530198 531191 526182 521176 515171 508167 504165
      500165 497165 493163 487158 484156 481155 477157 473157
      469157 467160 467166 470168 475171 477173 481181 483186
      485189 489188 494188 501188 506188 510190 520203 525207
      529204
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 451173 451173
 0.50 517273 519263 518253 513235 510228 506221 502215 496208
      490205 483204 477206 471210 460215 453218 450223 456226
      455230 453231 446233 441237 435240 427238 419236 416237
      413243 414248 416251 419257 421260 424262 429263 433261
      444257 447256 451256 458261 463261 470265 476270 481276
      491287 495290 499291 505289 512282 517273
 0.50 523195 523193 522192 521191 521192 523195 523195
 0.50 504176 504173 502172 500172 499172 499173 497174 498176
      500176 502177 503177 504176
 0.50 485230 485228 484228 482227 482226 482227 483229 483230
      485231 485230
 0.50 471645 471639 470634 466629 460627 457627 453628 443637
      437642 432648 424658 414670 406681 397693 380714 374726
      371734 370736 374736 404730 415722 420718 426712 434703
      445691 454681 458675 462668 468658 470651 471645
 1.00 515267 516259 515252 513245 511238 506226 499216 488209
      482207 476210 473214 469216 463216 458219 458223 462225
      466222 470218 475216 480219 485220 489226 491234 491237
      489237 484239 482238 481235 480231 477228 471229 468234
      468239 469242 472248 480256 487267 493277 497283 501285
      506284 509279 515267
 1.00 463640 461636 457635 452637 448641 438648 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 386714 384718 385722 387722
      392720 402713 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685 444676
      451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 512255 511246 509238 505231 501223 497218 494218 492222
      493231 497239 501246 504252 506256 510258 512255
 1.50 505281 506276 506271 503262 499255 495249 491242 488241
      485243 483246 484251 487259 490265 495272 498279 501282
      505281
 1.50 486213 486211 485209 484209 483208 481208 479210 478210
      478213 479214 480216 482216 483216 485215 485214 486213
 1.50 480246 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233
      478232 476231 475231 473231 473232 471233 470236 471238
      472240 472241 473243 474244 474245 476246 477246 479246
      480246
 1.50 448653 446650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417682 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503275 503269 501264 499260 497255 494251 492248 490246
      488246 488254 489259 491263 493267 496270 499275 501277
      503275
 2.00 507248 506242 507240 505235 502231 500227 498223 496222
      494225 496231 498235 500240 503244 505247 507248
 2.00 478241 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 473234 472236
      473239 475241 476243 478241

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050624
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF...AND AGAIN THE 00Z RUN...WAS QUITE
FLAT WITH THIS WAVE...AND FORECASTS LESS PRECIPITATION. WPC LEANED
ON THE SIDE OF CONSENSUS...AWAY FROM THE DRIER ECMWF...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDED SUCH GOOD DETAIL THAT WE
INTRODUCED NEARLY ZERO CHANGE IN THE 06Z UPDATE.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO AT
06Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN
FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE
WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDE...AND A MODEST RETURN FETCH OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH EVENT
TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487635 489648 489653 487658 475672 463688
      458697 453704 449712 445718 439726 433732 426739 418745
      410750 403756 388763 380766 371766 361767 355767 351767
      349766 343766 339764 336763 333767 328773 323780 318787
      313793 302808 298811 293813 286814 278811 272808 264804
      261802 258805 244818 238818 235820 234826 231828 229827
      229820 228815 227813 233796 236787 240778 245771 252766
      260763 264762 268764 272766 271770 270773 268777 265781
      263786 267790 271791 272795 277794 282792 285789 295779
      307767 314761 324755 331749 336743 341736 345730 356716
      362710 372703 380698 384691 388683 393677 398669 403662
      410655 414651 418647 427640 437632
 0.01 541203 534177 533173 532170 526166 517159 500146 483129
      476128 472125 468125 469131 469133 466134 462130 455130
      450131 451137 454139 454143 444146 437138 435143 434152
      440164 442169 440174 434184 432186 431191 430196 431200
      434205 431211 424217 417226 407232 399240 394240 391243
      388250 387256 385265 381273 378288 381290 385288 389286
      394287 393294 401297 406300 412303 424307 435311 442312
      449314 470314 480313 491311 499307 508300 524262 523259
      523258 523256 523254 522251 523248 523246 523243 524240
      524238 525235 525233 525230 526228 526225 527223 527220
      528218 530219 531220 532222 534223 536224
 0.01 504826 503821 502819 499814 496812 489812 483814 481816
      478817 475818 472820 469820 465819 463814 458810 455807
      455801 455796 456792 455784 451779 448782 447790 444797
      441801 438805 436806 435811 433816 439815 440813 442815
      444817 453823 455829 455835 449844 445858 442873 441887
      441904 441911 438918 431947 429953 428955 428960 429966
      433971 436976 440983 441989 443993 444998 444003 446007
      448010 453010 456008 462996 467986 478959 487934 496906
      499891 501878 502867 502859 501839 504826
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 441101 437105 438110
      441115 443120 446123 450119 454115 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 411059 407058 404058 402056 398055
      391063 389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063
      405065 402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072
      412068 410066 414064
 0.01 417970 416966 412963 409968 407973 399000 398006 395011
      390022 383029 378031 373030 366034 362038 362041 365043
      363054 365052 368053 374054 379051 382047 396030 401021
      404007 408996 412982 417970
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 361972 363968 363962 359956 353952 349951 346949
      330944 316940 312939 309941 307943 305947 297949 293949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 257939 254945 254956
      257961 261966 268971 280978 290989 296994 298996 302996
      315988 321986 324983 325980 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344986 344991 344002 345004 349005 355000 364994
      368985
 0.01 256795 254792 252790 250789 247789 247791 248794 248798
      247800 245803 244805 242807 245807 247805 248803 250801
      252799 254797 256795
 0.25 461623 468624 474629 478638 479644 478651 470665 466672
      461680 451692 440705 430717 418729 406739 398744 391745
      382746 375746 370747 365746 361745 360740 362732 366726
      370719 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 427650 438637
      444632 450627
 0.25 519274 520263 519253 518243 515232 511225 508219 503212
      498204 496201 492199 484199 479201 472206 466209 460211
      446216 439217 434220 428235 419234 413236 409242 407245
      405252 407261 408265 410268 421280 425281 430283 437284
      445285 453287 461288 468288 474291 483295 492298 497297
      504294 510289 515283 519274
 0.25 529204 530198 531191 526182 521176 515171 508167 504165
      500165 497165 493163 487158 484156 481155 477157 473157
      469157 467160 467166 470168 475171 477173 481181 483186
      485189 489188 494188 501188 506188 510190 520203 525207
      529204
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 451173 451173
 0.50 517273 519263 518253 513235 510228 506221 502215 496208
      490205 483204 477206 471210 460215 453218 450223 456226
      455230 453231 446233 441237 435240 427238 419236 416237
      413243 414248 416251 419257 421260 424262 429263 433261
      444257 447256 451256 458261 463261 470265 476270 481276
      491287 495290 499291 505289 512282 517273
 0.50 523195 523193 522192 521191 521192 523195 523195
 0.50 504176 504173 502172 500172 499172 499173 497174 498176
      500176 502177 503177 504176
 0.50 485230 485228 484228 482227 482226 482227 483229 483230
      485231 485230
 0.50 471645 471639 470634 466629 460627 457627 453628 443637
      437642 432648 424658 414670 406681 397693 380714 374726
      371734 370736 374736 404730 415722 420718 426712 434703
      445691 454681 458675 462668 468658 470651 471645
 1.00 515267 516259 515252 513245 511238 506226 499216 488209
      482207 476210 473214 469216 463216 458219 458223 462225
      466222 470218 475216 480219 485220 489226 491234 491237
      489237 484239 482238 481235 480231 477228 471229 468234
      468239 469242 472248 480256 487267 493277 497283 501285
      506284 509279 515267
 1.00 463640 461636 457635 452637 448641 438648 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 386714 384718 385722 387722
      392720 402713 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685 444676
      451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 512255 511246 509238 505231 501223 497218 494218 492222
      493231 497239 501246 504252 506256 510258 512255
 1.50 505281 506276 506271 503262 499255 495249 491242 488241
      485243 483246 484251 487259 490265 495272 498279 501282
      505281
 1.50 486213 486211 485209 484209 483208 481208 479210 478210
      478213 479214 480216 482216 483216 485215 485214 486213
 1.50 480246 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233
      478232 476231 475231 473231 473232 471233 470236 471238
      472240 472241 473243 474244 474245 476246 477246 479246
      480246
 1.50 448653 446650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417682 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503275 503269 501264 499260 497255 494251 492248 490246
      488246 488254 489259 491263 493267 496270 499275 501277
      503275
 2.00 507248 506242 507240 505235 502231 500227 498223 496222
      494225 496231 498235 500240 503244 505247 507248
 2.00 478241 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 473234 472236
      473239 475241 476243 478241

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 050624
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/1200 UTC THRU FEB 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND...

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP JUST BELOW 1000 MB BY 00Z
SATURDAY AS IT COMES WHIPPING UP THE COAST TODAY...MOVING FROM OFF
NORTH CAROLINA TO OFF OF MAINE...PASSING NEAR THE 70/40 BENCHMARK.
THE SYSTEM WAS FORMING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 180
KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET...WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS
CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM LONG
ISLAND TO MAINE...AND WPC INCREASED 24-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS BY 0.10
INCHES ALONG THIS ZONE...SLIGHTLY MORE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
CAPE...WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z TODAY MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH LIQUID. WHILE SOME OF THAT WILL BE RAIN OUT OVER THE
CAPE...SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER
WEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD...HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...FOR
DETAILS.

THE QPF WAS BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF PREVIOUS WPC / 00Z NAM /
00Z NAM CONEST. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE CONEST LEANED A BIT FARTHER EAST
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH WILL BE
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO THE CONEST WAS
USED TO TEMPER THE TENDENCY OF THE NAM TO SPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AGAIN...THE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL...BUT DOES HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS...INCLUDING MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN THE NORTHEAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND THEN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IT SHOULD LOSE THE CONNECTION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AS THE SHARPNESS OF THE WAVE AND SHORT WAVELENGTH
LEAVES THE CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE PW VALUES PINCHED OFF IN AN
AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...THE MODELS AND ANALOG EVENT DATA FROM
THE GEFS REFORECAST EFFORTS SUGGEST RELATIVELY HEAVY 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH AREAL
AVERAGE FARTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. MODEL AGREEMENT WAS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF...AND AGAIN THE 00Z RUN...WAS QUITE
FLAT WITH THIS WAVE...AND FORECASTS LESS PRECIPITATION. WPC LEANED
ON THE SIDE OF CONSENSUS...AWAY FROM THE DRIER ECMWF...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDED SUCH GOOD DETAIL THAT WE
INTRODUCED NEARLY ZERO CHANGE IN THE 06Z UPDATE.


...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE TO PROVIDE MUCH DEFINITION WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.10 INCHES. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THEIR SIMILARITIES...AND
USED SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE DOWNSCALED QPF AND PROBABILISTIC FIELDS
TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.


...COLORADO TO TEXAS...

THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW WILL DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WAS ALREADY ONGOING IN COLORADO AT
06Z. THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE MAY BE LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN
FROM KS TO W TX EARLY TODAY...BUT ASCENT WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE
WAVE SPINS UP AT LOWER LATITUDE...AND A MODEST RETURN FETCH OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM OK INTO NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
FORCING...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS
PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO USEFUL IN CRAFTING QPF HERE...WITH EVENT
TOTALS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...UNDER A HALF INCH AT BEST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 477618 483625 487635 489648 489653 487658 475672 463688
      458697 453704 449712 445718 439726 433732 426739 418745
      410750 403756 388763 380766 371766 361767 355767 351767
      349766 343766 339764 336763 333767 328773 323780 318787
      313793 302808 298811 293813 286814 278811 272808 264804
      261802 258805 244818 238818 235820 234826 231828 229827
      229820 228815 227813 233796 236787 240778 245771 252766
      260763 264762 268764 272766 271770 270773 268777 265781
      263786 267790 271791 272795 277794 282792 285789 295779
      307767 314761 324755 331749 336743 341736 345730 356716
      362710 372703 380698 384691 388683 393677 398669 403662
      410655 414651 418647 427640 437632
 0.01 541203 534177 533173 532170 526166 517159 500146 483129
      476128 472125 468125 469131 469133 466134 462130 455130
      450131 451137 454139 454143 444146 437138 435143 434152
      440164 442169 440174 434184 432186 431191 430196 431200
      434205 431211 424217 417226 407232 399240 394240 391243
      388250 387256 385265 381273 378288 381290 385288 389286
      394287 393294 401297 406300 412303 424307 435311 442312
      449314 470314 480313 491311 499307 508300 524262 523259
      523258 523256 523254 522251 523248 523246 523243 524240
      524238 525235 525233 525230 526228 526225 527223 527220
      528218 530219 531220 532222 534223 536224
 0.01 504826 503821 502819 499814 496812 489812 483814 481816
      478817 475818 472820 469820 465819 463814 458810 455807
      455801 455796 456792 455784 451779 448782 447790 444797
      441801 438805 436806 435811 433816 439815 440813 442815
      444817 453823 455829 455835 449844 445858 442873 441887
      441904 441911 438918 431947 429953 428955 428960 429966
      433971 436976 440983 441989 443993 444998 444003 446007
      448010 453010 456008 462996 467986 478959 487934 496906
      499891 501878 502867 502859 501839 504826
 0.01 456113 454105 453100 448095 445096 441101 437105 438110
      441115 443120 446123 450119 454115 456113
 0.01 441755 440748 436746 435749 435756 435761 434766 434773
      436780 437777 438772 440767 440762 440755 441755
 0.01 435787 431785 429781 427781 424781 422780 422782 419785
      413784 414791 418795 420799 424801 427798 427796 428793
      428788 429784 431785 435787
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 411059 407058 404058 402056 398055
      391063 389066 389070 390073 396066 402058 406061 407063
      405065 402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072
      412068 410066 414064
 0.01 417970 416966 412963 409968 407973 399000 398006 395011
      390022 383029 378031 373030 366034 362038 362041 365043
      363054 365052 368053 374054 379051 382047 396030 401021
      404007 408996 412982 417970
 0.01 403792 402792 400793 398793 396793 395793 393794 391796
      390796 388797 388799 390797 391796 393796 395796 397796
      398795 400795 402792 403792 403792
 0.01 368985 361972 363968 363962 359956 353952 349951 346949
      330944 316940 312939 309941 307943 305947 297949 293949
      289948 283945 278937 272935 265935 257939 254945 254956
      257961 261966 268971 280978 290989 296994 298996 302996
      315988 321986 324983 325980 329978 333978 338978 341979
      342982 344986 344991 344002 345004 349005 355000 364994
      368985
 0.01 256795 254792 252790 250789 247789 247791 248794 248798
      247800 245803 244805 242807 245807 247805 248803 250801
      252799 254797 256795
 0.25 461623 468624 474629 478638 479644 478651 470665 466672
      461680 451692 440705 430717 418729 406739 398744 391745
      382746 375746 370747 365746 361745 360740 362732 366726
      370719 376712 386701 396687 405675 417662 427650 438637
      444632 450627
 0.25 519274 520263 519253 518243 515232 511225 508219 503212
      498204 496201 492199 484199 479201 472206 466209 460211
      446216 439217 434220 428235 419234 413236 409242 407245
      405252 407261 408265 410268 421280 425281 430283 437284
      445285 453287 461288 468288 474291 483295 492298 497297
      504294 510289 515283 519274
 0.25 529204 530198 531191 526182 521176 515171 508167 504165
      500165 497165 493163 487158 484156 481155 477157 473157
      469157 467160 467166 470168 475171 477173 481181 483186
      485189 489188 494188 501188 506188 510190 520203 525207
      529204
 0.25 483857 483852 482847 480844 478842 476842 474843 473845
      473850 473853 475857 476860 479862 482859 483857
 0.25 451173 451173
 0.50 517273 519263 518253 513235 510228 506221 502215 496208
      490205 483204 477206 471210 460215 453218 450223 456226
      455230 453231 446233 441237 435240 427238 419236 416237
      413243 414248 416251 419257 421260 424262 429263 433261
      444257 447256 451256 458261 463261 470265 476270 481276
      491287 495290 499291 505289 512282 517273
 0.50 523195 523193 522192 521191 521192 523195 523195
 0.50 504176 504173 502172 500172 499172 499173 497174 498176
      500176 502177 503177 504176
 0.50 485230 485228 484228 482227 482226 482227 483229 483230
      485231 485230
 0.50 471645 471639 470634 466629 460627 457627 453628 443637
      437642 432648 424658 414670 406681 397693 380714 374726
      371734 370736 374736 404730 415722 420718 426712 434703
      445691 454681 458675 462668 468658 470651 471645
 1.00 515267 516259 515252 513245 511238 506226 499216 488209
      482207 476210 473214 469216 463216 458219 458223 462225
      466222 470218 475216 480219 485220 489226 491234 491237
      489237 484239 482238 481235 480231 477228 471229 468234
      468239 469242 472248 480256 487267 493277 497283 501285
      506284 509279 515267
 1.00 463640 461636 457635 452637 448641 438648 433652 430656
      418674 404692 398700 390709 386714 384718 385722 387722
      392720 402713 412708 418707 422704 429693 435685 444676
      451669 455664 457658 461649 463644 463640
 1.50 512255 511246 509238 505231 501223 497218 494218 492222
      493231 497239 501246 504252 506256 510258 512255
 1.50 505281 506276 506271 503262 499255 495249 491242 488241
      485243 483246 484251 487259 490265 495272 498279 501282
      505281
 1.50 486213 486211 485209 484209 483208 481208 479210 478210
      478213 479214 480216 482216 483216 485215 485214 486213
 1.50 480246 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233
      478232 476231 475231 473231 473232 471233 470236 471238
      472240 472241 473243 474244 474245 476246 477246 479246
      480246
 1.50 448653 446650 442651 436655 431660 427666 423673 418679
      417682 420681 422679 427678 434677 438671 443664 446658
      448653
 2.00 503275 503269 501264 499260 497255 494251 492248 490246
      488246 488254 489259 491263 493267 496270 499275 501277
      503275
 2.00 507248 506242 507240 505235 502231 500227 498223 496222
      494225 496231 498235 500240 503244 505247 507248
 2.00 478241 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 473234 472236
      473239 475241 476243 478241

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050043
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050043
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050043
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042139
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON DAY 2 REACHES
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST LATER ON DAY 2 INTO DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORT
WAVE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.
SOME 09Z SREF WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMUM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE WA/OR COAST EARLY ON DAY 2...AND PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. THE 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WA CASCADES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHWEST OR AND NORTHWEST CA. AN AXIS
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE WA AND OR
CASCADES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN WA RANGE.
ANOTHER MAXIMUM WAS PLACED OVER THE KLAMATH RANGE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
OR AND NORTHWEST CA...WHERE AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS RANGE RECEIVES THE BEST INFLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR.

HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...PRODUCING
LIFT FOR QPF. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3...AND THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES ALONG A SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM ON DAY 3...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME
SPREAD DURING THAT TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO GUIDES A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOSTERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS ACROSS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LAKES.
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE UP OF MI
AND THE NORTHERN LP OF MI ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN TIME AND
FETCH...AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THESE AREAS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOMES FOCUSED ON A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN DAY 2.

OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATION IS MORE
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPEN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE OR LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE FETCH
IS NOT ALONG THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY
STATE.

DAY 3...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSES ND EARLY ON DAY 3 CLOSES OFF IN THE MID
LEVELS...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE SAME PATH. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF
A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ITSELF SHOULD
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.250 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US BORDER. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THAT SWATH SHOULD TOUCH
NORTHERNMOST MN INTO THE UP OF MI....WITH LESSER QPF AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN...NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MI.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON DAY
3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS ARE ON THE FASTER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
SURFACE LOW...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM (AND HAS SUPPORT OF
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN)...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z
ECMWF.

DAY 2...
A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY CROSSES FL DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TRANSPORT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INSTABILITY WAS GENERALLY LACKING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL...LED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...FOR A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTH FL.

DAY 3...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
DAY 3 HELPS TO SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF
THE FL EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE
TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST...LEAVING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OPEN AS IT GOES NEGATIVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT
MODELS TREND OF BEING FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
SYSTEMS.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO DEVELOPING
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS THAT WRAP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES TO REACH BACK TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST
NC...COASTAL SC AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT...DUE TO THE SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
SOLUTIONS...THAT THE FORECAST HERE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. TRENDS
NEED TO BE FOLLOWED...AND CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF COULD BE FORTHCOMING.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/HAYES

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 479621 482621 487626 488633 487638
      482657 476666 471676 461692 458699 455703 454705 456707
      463700 467699 469701 468707 465712 457717 454723 453729
      451739 448747 446750 444751 443745 439739 438733 434732
      433735 426741 420745 396770 390778 383785 376791 370795
      354805 348809 340814 330818 320820 300825 283833 269840
      260844 256846 250847 245847 242845 240842 240837 242833
      242830 239831 233831 230829 229824 229819 229814 230810
      240796 246788 252783 263770 274760 281752 288747 301736
      309730 317726 320724 322722 321720 319718 318713 319708
      322705 327699 341684 354672 360668 367662 372660 376657
      387653 398650 403648 408646 414645 420643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 506194 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219
      529219 531221 534223 541203 538194 537185 534179 530174
      526168 523165 520164 514165 510166 506165 499167 493167
      489167 488164 485158 481153 475152 475146 477144 480142
      483143 488149 492150 493149 493145 492142 489139 488136
      487126 483123 480120 478121 474122 471124 463135 458140
      454142 447147 444147 439144 436148 434150 434155 434159
      437161 441166 444169 444172 446175 446180 444184 441185
      442190 449190 451195 453196 458190 462186 465179 464175
      461175 457172 455169 456163 459160 462159 465161 471165
      478167 479161 481163 484169 489173 493175 491180 491187
      490190 488190 489193 488198 484198 472202 468206 464209
      457208 453214 447216 444217 440217 434220 428220 425220
      423222 423224 427226 430228 432233 429236 425236 421235
      418236 416236 413240 411250 408257 402271 398278 396283
      394286 392291 392293 396297 402298 406301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494053 494044 491033 491028 489022 488016 488009
      486997 483988 479984 474982 474973 474964 475956 477950
      481942 484932 489924 492919 493915 494909 494901 493892
      492887 490881 488878 488874 493848 493843 492839 487832
      484829 480827 470826 468823 469819 471814 476805 475799
      473795 472795 468793 466789 464785 459785 450787 447792
      443794 442800 440805 438810 434813 430814 427819 425823
      429824 432823 437821 441820 444822 452827 455830 456833
      454835 450843 444853 436854 433853 429855 426860 424864
      422866 421870 422875 425879 437894 441904 444906 446904
      453894 456886 459884 461886 462890 461901 462905 463905
      464909 462912 453918 442930 430942 426947 426951 423962
      420971 421975 422977 425981 429985 433985 436985 438983
      442983 446980 448981 448985 444995 442998 441002 443005
      448005 457010 463011 466009 466015 464020 464028 465033
      466035 465038 462040 459044 455046 455049 457052 464058
      464062 462068 463074 465077 470078 475077 478077 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 480091 475092 466092 464094 463097 461100
      458098 454094 451092 449093 443095 435094 430090 425086
      424088 426091 428098 429100 428103 421104 422112 418113
      414112 412110 411106 411103 409100 405107 400111 396112
      390115 394115 402117 405117 407120 411121 414123 417128
      422133 426132 430125 434121 438120 442122 447125 449126
      451124 455118 460115 466115 471115 473113 476109 484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 412800 406801 406806 409810 412815 416816
      420815 424810 429802 432796 431792 432790 433784 432776
      433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427046 432023 432016 431012 429002
      427990 424987 421987 417989 416983 416976 414973 412970
      409972 405975 403979 403984 401988 398998 397003 395007
      392016 391023 392027 394031 392034 385038 383040 387043
      391043 394039 403040 407043 409048 407053 404053 399055
      396057 391062 384063 385066 384068 382069 380069 377065
      375062 371061 371065 372070 374080 387091 390079 395085
      397087 400086 415079 421078 424077 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 397791 389794 379803 368813 356819 353823 351824
      347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816 375817
      385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 301760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 521258 519248 516236 512228 506220 501214 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470213 463216 459218 458220
      458224 462227 465226 471222 480221 484222 486225 485233
      483232 481227 476225 472226 469229 461231 446236 432246
      426250 421256 419261 418266 419271 421277 435288 438290
      439294 438295 431302 430306 433307 440306 449305 457305
      473307 483307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476640 473637 467637 461636 455636 449637 441639
      427647 421651 415656 407665 395677 387689 383694 379700
      370708 359718 349727 332748 322758 312766 297788 279809
      270819 269822 269826 273827 276826 287819 294815 301813
      316808 328803 343796 355790 367782 377773 388764 398755
      407745 415735 433711 442700 449689 458676 466665 472655
      477646
 0.50 518273 519264 519257 517250 515243 511233 504222 497214
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488224 489231 486236
      483237 481234 480231 478228 475227 470230 468235 462246
      459252 458255 459258 464262 466267 470273 470279 468289
      471294 480300 484302 490302 500301 509296 512293 514285
      518273
 0.50 466644 462642 457642 445644 431650 422656 413664 405672
      397682 391690 384700 377707 361724 353733 346740 338749
      332759 324766 316772 313775 312777 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 304803 310803 317800 323799 335794 345789
      354783 374770 383763 391756 399747 407738 420722 428712
      434703 447685 455673 460663 464654 466647 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502227 499222 496220
      493222 492227 493234 496239 498244 496245 489239 486240
      483243 481242 480239 479234 478231 475231 472234 472241
      473244 480253 484263 485268 486274 486281 487286 491291
      494293 499295 502294 506292 509288 512278 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 432659 423664 417670
      411676 399691 377717 367730 354744 347750 342755 333771
      328778 330781 333781 338780 343777 351774 382755 388749
      393743 406729 416716 427702 437687 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 504289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 428672 423675 419678 404691 392706
      385712 379720 375728 371738 366745 365749 369751 378747
      386740 398728 411713 416705 421697 427690 431685 433680
      433679
 1.50 363753 362752 361751 360751 358752 356753 355754 353755
      352758 351758 350760 349762 350763 352763 354763 356762
      357761 359761 361759 361758 362756 362755 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      490246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 408696 404701 401705 396709 391711 387717
      386724 389725 392723 396719 400714 403709 408705 412701
      414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 484615 484620 487624 491628 493632 495634 496639 497644
      495647 493653 490657 488660 485661 476671 471673 465675
      458677 454679 452681 440685 436688 433687 429688 425687
      419688 416687 412688 404690 401693 394695 388698 381700
      376699 371700 358697 350693 346689 343686 344684 349676
      360668 368661 380654 390648 393645
 0.01 523262 524251 523247 524241 526229 528218 529215 531213
      533214 536214 538211 539200 536193 533187 533177 533173
      532170 533164 534161 541130 542122 539116 531105 529097
      527089 526080 530074 533069 536067 539068 545069 547071
      550072 555073 557067 557062 559060 559056 560051 562043
      563036 563011 564005 562001 562990 563977 559971 551964
      547960 544963 539968 536968 534970 526975 518983 509993
      500003 496008 493015 492023 490029 489035 485039 474034
      470036 467041 465043 465048 468053 469058 469064 469070
      466065 464061 464057 463055 460057 456057 454058 452059
      452064 452068 453071 459081 467089 470095 472101 465102
      460101 457100 452094 445094 440096 436097 433095 428089
      426091 427094 430100 428103 425105 423105 422110 424129
      429124 433119 438116 442122 444124 447125 450127 451130
      449134 449139 444144 440139 437138 435140 434148 434152
      436155 440165 442172 438177 432187 430197 433203 434207
      432210 427214 422219 418226 410230 404233 400236 399240
      394240 388250 386259 385264 383267 382271 380274 378283
      377288 380289 385288 391286 394286 396288 401291 406290
      410288 415285 423280 432276 452264 463260 467260 470263
      474268 479279 482283 484289 487295 491300 496302 500298
      505298 508293 510290 513289
 0.01 532752 531742 529738 527734 522728 518719 511709 504696
      499688 492689 484692 478698 475699 473702 467704 460706
      457706 455705 447707 445710 442713 441716 442721 445723
      446729 445734 442738 438742 434748 433754 434766 434772
      433776 429783 424789 420794 416799 415804 415808 416816
      420832 429831 431826 434828 433830 434838 435844 433849
      427852 424858 424869 426872 431873 437876 439881 439886
      438895 433911 431919 431925 433929 435936 440942 447942
      451939 456934 460928 473920 477920 480922 484930 489934
      493936 494933 494927 494916 494910 495906 495900 497895
      500887 503875 504857 505852 505847 508839 509836 509830
      512822 518803 520796 524789 526781 529777 532763 531755
      532752
 0.01 517151 517145 516142 514134 512128 511126 508125 503125
      500124 497125 496128 494125 490122 487118 484113 482110
      479108 475111 472117 471121 473123 485127 494134 503142
      507146 513149 515152 517151
 0.01 474086 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088 471091 472093
      474091 474089 474086 474086
 0.01 449056 450049 448044 448039 447034 444029 442026 437026
      436031 436035 438040 439045 442050 444053 447056 449056
 0.01 380972 380967 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366950 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 354733 351728 349729 346726 342711 338706 331713 321719
      313727 300739 283754 280758 277761 273763 269760 257764
      249770 245772 242777 237785 232787 229792 228798 228804
      227817 227829 225840 226848 228854 230857 233860 237864
      240866 247865 252863 263858 278847 285840 290829 292824
      296822 305817 310816 315813 322804 327796 330785 335775
      341765 346757 350748 353739 354733
 0.01 361958 361951 359947 351943 343940 339938 337935 343928
      341923 337921 332917 321917 311918 302915 295914 295924
      290923 285921 279914 275912 272912 267911 266905 267900
      265897 261894 257896 254904 251913 251918 246919 246926
      247930 249934 252937 261939 266945 270948 275947 282943
      285941 287940 290941 286951 283963 282967 283972 286976
      295971 298968 300963 305958 308954 311955 312958 320962
      330965 334966 339965 343963 348963 357963 361958
 0.25 529199 530191 527187 523178 520173 516169 508164 504162
      498162 492159 488155 484153 476152 472150 468145 465142
      461140 458144 457150 457155 459159 463162 465168 469170
      474171 478175 481180 485189 494186 499186 504188 513194
      519199 523203 525203 529199
 0.25 518273 520266 519259 516248 510231 506222 502213 497207
      495204 490201 487199 484199 476204 471207 464211 448214
      441215 435218 431222 431229 428233 424234 415234 409237
      404243 401247 401250 398260 396265 397269 398271 401271
      404269 411264 424258 432256 439251 452248 460245 468245
      476247 481248 485250 492269 497276 503281 513279 518273
 0.25 491142 490139 488136 486134 484133 481131 478131 476131
      473133 474136 477138 478140 481140 484140 487141 488143
      491142
 0.25 484859 485851 483846 481841 478839 473840 471843 471850
      471858 472863 476865 481867 482865 484861 484859
 0.25 463181 464177 463174 460173 456174 454172 454169 452164
      450165 449168 448172 449176 452179 454184 457184 461183
      463181
 0.25 448638 448633 446631 441633 434636 428639 423642 421649
      425653 430654 437652 442649 446643 448638
 0.25 330772 330768 327766 323769 315775 311779 307781 302784
      298787 293795 291801 293806 304808 311804 317798 321793
      322788 324782 326778 330772
 0.25 336952 336950 335949 334948 332949 332950 334951 335952
      336952 336952
 0.25 260825 259823 257820 255819 252820 250821 248825 248827
      248831 249833 253834 256832 258830 259827 260825
 0.50 516264 516259 515255 513247 509235 506228 503221 496211
      490207 485204 480205 476207 465213 460215 454216 450218
      443218 440218 438220 436223 437226 441227 443227 450226
      454225 457227 459229 459233 463234 465233 468235 472240
      476242 478242 479237 476230 473226 476221 483223 491226
      496237 499244 503249 509261 513268 516264
 0.50 518185 516180 513177 510175 505171 502170 499170 495171
      497176 500178 505180 508183 511186 515188 518185
 0.50 489170 489169 488167 488166 486164 485161 483161 482160
      481160 480160 479160 478162 478165 479166 481167 481168
      482169 484170 485171 486172 487172 489171 489170
 0.50 471160 472158 470157 469155 469154 468152 467151 466149
      464149 462151 461153 462154 463156 464156 465157 467157
      468157 469157 469160 470161 471161 471160
 0.50 479852 479850 478849 477850 477852 478853 479852
 0.50 436243 433238 427236 420235 415236 411240 407244 406251
      408254 411255 416255 421253 426251 432249 436245 436243
 0.50 318787 319780 317778 314783 312786 309789 306793 304795
      304799 305801 310800 314797 317794 318789 318787
 1.00 500232 501230 500228 500227 500224 499224 499221 498221
      497218 495219 493220 493222 494224 494225 495227 496228
      497230 498231 499232 500233 500232
 1.00 489216 489214 489213 488210 486209 484208 483207 481207
      480208 479208 477209 477210 476211 475212 475213 476215
      477215 478217 480218 481218 483218 485218 486218 487217
      488216 489216
 1.00 463221 463218 462218 461220 462221 463221
 1.00 429243 429240 426239 423238 419237 418237 415239 413243
      416246 420246 422246 425245 427245 429243
 1.50 483214 484212 483209 481209 479210 479213 480215 482215
      483214
 1.50 423241 422241 421240 419240 418240 419241 420241 422241
      423241

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 480616 491626 499638 506649 512665 525695 530716 532730
      532737 531742 532755 531759 532766 530773 529777 527780
      516788 512786 504787 501788 498787 491787 488786 484786
      481787 478786 478789 483796 487803 491810 493817 501832
      506850 508858 510864 515869 519874 524881 529886 537898
      541903 545909 550917 552919 552925 552932 553936 556941
      558943 560945 561949 563952 563959 563984 562994 561004
      559018 556026 553034 549039 538043 530043 526044 523044
      496050 490051 488053 484054 480057 476061 470066 467068
      464067 455057 451051 444047 441045 439042 438038 438033
      458023 462022 464019 466016 464013 462013 459013 457011
      454013 451012 438016 434018 430018 430014 429010 429989
      429978 432976 436975 443971 438964 435959 431952 426940
      426929 424921 427903 425899 422895 418890 413884 411882
      412879 407866 410856 410853 413851 423841 433833 445828
      446826 445823 442821 441822 439820 437816 436810 439804
      440794 439791 437790 433791 429796 424803 421811 416816
      411817 409815 408809 408799 410793 415781 424770 423763
      421759 421755 420749 422746 430740 435736 436734 434733
      429733 427732 427729 430726 433725 436725 437722 437712
      442709 446704 448701 447697 445695 444691 442686 439685
      435686 433684 431682 430677 431670 432660 435651 438643
      442637 464622
 0.01 511297 517278 520264 520258 521251 520247 515242 512232
      508225 503218 497213 490211 481207 480205 476207 471208
      466209 462210 456213 442214 439216 435215 432218 430221
      431226 434229 442231 448244 451245 453249 457255 461263
      463273 461280 461284 465290 466297 463301 458307 479327
      482331 484330 487329 490328 496325 498321 502317 505309
      510300
 0.01 490147 488144 487143 485141 484138 482135 479132 478131
      476131 477134 478137 480140 482141 483144 485146 488147
      490147
 0.01 478162 475156 471148 466143 464140 464136 462131 461131
      458134 458138 459144 456145 454147 455150 458158 460162
      462163 471166 473165 476162 478162
 0.01 480105 480102 479099 477096 476093 474091 471090 467090
      467092 467097 468100 470101 471103 473106 476107 478107
      480105
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 459086 457083 452076 448070 441067
      437068 434070 433072 434076 436078 444081 448084 450088
      455093 457097 457100 455098 453095 450092 445094 442093
      439091 435097 432106 432109 435112 439113 443116 445118
      446123 449124 451121 454117 457115 462111
 0.01 459793 459790 459788 457786 455786 454787 452787 450789
      449790 447792 446795 448797 449799 451799 453801 455801
      457802 458800 458798 458795 459793
 0.01 415076 414072 412068 415066 416062 410063 408064 406063
      405061 404058 400057 397057 395059 394065 396069 396072
      399076 399079 402077 403073 404070 406070 408075 411076
      415076
 0.01 389677 388668 385661 382657 377660 367668 354675 332687
      321695 311702 300709 294712 289715 269731 261739 254748
      241769 235778 231789 226799 223813 222816 222820 224826
      234829 237835 241838 248839 257838 272837 287836 292834
      297830 299828 302826 309827 315825 321822 325819 328814
      337806 342802 348798 352793 354787 356774 360760 362754
      367749 375725 384699 385692 387687 389677
 0.25 512274 514264 512258 509252 506251 500252 497257 496262
      498270 500277 503281 504285 507285 507280 509278 512274
 0.25 530978 531972 531966 528958 526948 524939 518925 510911
      503900 496886 493879 489873 487870 487864 485860 482858
      473848 470848 467849 464851 464856 463865 464874 464881
      466887 468890 470892 471897 473905 479920 485935 486945
      487951 486954 483957 482961 484968 488975 493980 504987
      509991 515990 520988 523985 528982 530978
 0.25 483644 483641 483639 482636 481635 481634 480634 478633
      476634 475636 475639 476641 477643 478643 479645 480645
      481646 483645 483644
 0.25 375687 374681 370679 365679 359682 352687 340692 333698
      324703 307716 294728 282742 276750 271758 267767 264777
      260786 259791 260797 250814 248820 249823 252824 260827
      264825 267821 274814 319811 327807 334802 342795 347786
      350762 353752 357742 373704 375696 375687
 0.50 365696 364692 360690 353693 343697 335702 326707 320711
      313717 307723 301730 297736 293744 288751 283758 280766
      276773 273783 269790 267794 267799 256812 254816 256820
      260820 263817 268812 272809 276807 285806 295807 303808
      309808 315807 324804 331800 338795 343788 345778 346768
      351749 356731 361722 363718 364713 365696
 1.00 351722 351713 347708 343708 336711 331714 327717 319726
      312735 306745 294764 288773 282783 280789 277793 279798
      284800 290801 297800 309801 316800 321799 332793 335789
      338783 341770 348745 351722
 1.50 344743 345737 344732 341722 336721 332723 328729 318742
      313747 307754 299766 297775 294782 293788 297790 305791
      312793 316794 321794 324792 327790 331783 338768 343750
      344743
 2.00 339744 338738 335740 329741 324744 318750 311758 306767
      305772 305777 307780 314785 319786 323783 330776 336767
      338763 339758 339744
 3.00 332761 331756 327755 324757 321759 317762 314766 314770
      316774 321775 325773 327770 330766 332761 332761

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 042050
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 00Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS... NEAR LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE MOMENT... IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND REACH THE MID-ATL/NC COAST BY FRI MORNING.
MEANWHILE... A WEAKER SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NRN STREAM IS DIGGING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. THE
TWO STREAMS WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE... TAKE A NEG TILT WITH BACKING
FLOW... INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
NC AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OR EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED STREAM OF QPF. THE DEFINITE
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HRS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTH AND WEST
SHIFT TO THE QPF... AS THE SURFACE WAVE RACES TOWARD THE BENCH
MARK OVER THE ATLANTIC. A FORECAST THIS CLOSE WITH VERY NARROW
SPREAD AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT
AND IT`S A BIG BUT IS THE SPLIT FLOW AND TIMING OF PHASING IS
ALWAYS VERY DIFFICULT. WPC WENT AHEAD WITH A STRIPE OF
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN NECK OF VA/MD EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH DE/NJ/EXTREME SERN PA INTO POTENTIALLY NYC AND MOST OR ALL
OF SERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS THE LATTER SPOT OF ERN/SERN MA/CAPE COD
AND RI/NERN CT TO EXTREME ERN MAINE WHERE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT BEFORE THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS THE ERN
SEABOARD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. REASONABLE PAC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL
FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BITTERROOTS. THIS
PAC SYSTEM WILL TEAM WITH THE NRN STREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT THROUGH SUN.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA
BUT A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
ND INTO MN/WI AND THE UP OF MI.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 042050
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 00Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS... NEAR LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE MOMENT... IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND REACH THE MID-ATL/NC COAST BY FRI MORNING.
MEANWHILE... A WEAKER SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NRN STREAM IS DIGGING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. THE
TWO STREAMS WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE... TAKE A NEG TILT WITH BACKING
FLOW... INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
NC AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OR EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED STREAM OF QPF. THE DEFINITE
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HRS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTH AND WEST
SHIFT TO THE QPF... AS THE SURFACE WAVE RACES TOWARD THE BENCH
MARK OVER THE ATLANTIC. A FORECAST THIS CLOSE WITH VERY NARROW
SPREAD AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT
AND IT`S A BIG BUT IS THE SPLIT FLOW AND TIMING OF PHASING IS
ALWAYS VERY DIFFICULT. WPC WENT AHEAD WITH A STRIPE OF
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN NECK OF VA/MD EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH DE/NJ/EXTREME SERN PA INTO POTENTIALLY NYC AND MOST OR ALL
OF SERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS THE LATTER SPOT OF ERN/SERN MA/CAPE COD
AND RI/NERN CT TO EXTREME ERN MAINE WHERE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT BEFORE THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS THE ERN
SEABOARD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. REASONABLE PAC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL
FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BITTERROOTS. THIS
PAC SYSTEM WILL TEAM WITH THE NRN STREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT THROUGH SUN.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA
BUT A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
ND INTO MN/WI AND THE UP OF MI.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 042050
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 05 2016 - 00Z MON FEB 08 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS... NEAR LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE MOMENT... IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND REACH THE MID-ATL/NC COAST BY FRI MORNING.
MEANWHILE... A WEAKER SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NRN STREAM IS DIGGING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. THE
TWO STREAMS WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE... TAKE A NEG TILT WITH BACKING
FLOW... INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
NC AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OR EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED STREAM OF QPF. THE DEFINITE
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HRS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTH AND WEST
SHIFT TO THE QPF... AS THE SURFACE WAVE RACES TOWARD THE BENCH
MARK OVER THE ATLANTIC. A FORECAST THIS CLOSE WITH VERY NARROW
SPREAD AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT
AND IT`S A BIG BUT IS THE SPLIT FLOW AND TIMING OF PHASING IS
ALWAYS VERY DIFFICULT. WPC WENT AHEAD WITH A STRIPE OF
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN NECK OF VA/MD EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH DE/NJ/EXTREME SERN PA INTO POTENTIALLY NYC AND MOST OR ALL
OF SERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS THE LATTER SPOT OF ERN/SERN MA/CAPE COD
AND RI/NERN CT TO EXTREME ERN MAINE WHERE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT BEFORE THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS THE ERN
SEABOARD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. REASONABLE PAC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL
FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BITTERROOTS. THIS
PAC SYSTEM WILL TEAM WITH THE NRN STREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT THROUGH SUN.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA
BUT A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
ND INTO MN/WI AND THE UP OF MI.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 042041
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON DAY 2 REACHES
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST LATER ON DAY 2 INTO DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORT
WAVE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.
SOME 09Z SREF WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMUM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE WA/OR COAST EARLY ON DAY 2...AND PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. THE 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WA CASCADES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHWEST OR AND NORTHWEST CA. AN AXIS
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE WA AND OR
CASCADES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN WA RANGE.
ANOTHER MAXIMUM WAS PLACED OVER THE KLAMATH RANGE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
OR AND NORTHWEST CA...WHERE AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS RANGE RECEIVES THE BEST INFLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR.

HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...PRODUCING
LIFT FOR QPF. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3...AND THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES ALONG A SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM ON DAY 3...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME
SPREAD DURING THAT TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO GUIDES A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOSTERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS ACROSS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LAKES.
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE UP OF MI
AND THE NORTHERN LP OF MI ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN TIME AND
FETCH...AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THESE AREAS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOMES FOCUSED ON A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN DAY 2.

OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATION IS MORE
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPEN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE OR LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE FETCH
IS NOT ALONG THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY
STATE.

DAY 3...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSES ND EARLY ON DAY 3 CLOSES OFF IN THE MID
LEVELS...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE SAME PATH. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF
A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ITSELF SHOULD
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.250 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US BORDER. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THAT SWATH SHOULD TOUCH
NORTHERNMOST MN INTO THE UP OF MI....WITH LESSER QPF AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN...NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MI.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON DAY
3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS ARE ON THE FASTER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
SURFACE LOW...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM (AND HAS SUPPORT OF
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN)...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z
ECMWF.

DAY 2...
A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY CROSSES FL DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TRANSPORT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INSTABILITY WAS GENERALLY LACKING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL...LED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...FOR A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTH FL.

DAY 3...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
DAY 3 HELPS TO SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF
THE FL EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE
TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST...LEAVING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OPEN AS IT GOES NEGATIVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT
MODELS TREND OF BEING FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
SYSTEMS.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO DEVELOPING
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS THAT WRAP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES TO REACH BACK TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST
NC...COASTAL SC AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT...DUE TO THE SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
SOLUTIONS...THAT THE FORECAST HERE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. TRENDS
NEED TO BE FOLLOWED...AND CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF COULD BE FORTHCOMING.



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/HAYES

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 487614 482626 476636 469646 462656 454665 446674 429690
      420698 409704 396708 389709 387708 383709 380715 377715
      373713 369709 360702 356699 352694 348690 345686 344679
      349673 353672 355670 358668 368661 390648 393645
 0.01 523262 524253 523246 526226 528218 529215 531213 535215
      538210 539199 536192 533185 534176 532168 535160 535154
      537150 538139 541130 542122 541118 534108 530103 528094
      526086 525082 526077 534067 536065 541066 546069 553075
      558070 560063 561060 561056 562051 563030 563018 564012
      565007 564995 564980 563977 562971 559966 552960 545960
      540963 536968 531971 515985 499004 496008 493015 492026
      489035 470036 463045 465050 469053 469070 466065 464061
      464057 463055 461056 456057 453058 452061 452069 459081
      464085 467090 470095 472098 470102 460101 458102 456100
      453094 446093 440096 436097 433095 428090 426091 427093
      429097 430102 427104 423106 422111 424113 426115 425118
      423122 424127 426127 433119 438116 442122 445124 448125
      450127 451131 449139 444143 440140 439138 437139 434146
      434152 435155 441167 442170 441173 438177 431187 430197
      433203 434207 431210 427214 422219 419225 415228 410230
      401238 399240 395240 392241 391244 382271 380273 379278
      378288 381290 387287 394286 399291 404291 410288 427278
      444268 454263 459261 462260 466260 472266 475271 478276
      482283 487295 491300 496302 500298 505298 508292 510289
      513289
 0.01 534755 533746 530737 520725 517718 514712 511707 509704
      505696 501690 497685 492685 485691 475700 468705 461705
      457706 455705 447707 442713 441715 442721 445723 444727
      446732 444736 439740 435746 433754 434763 434768 434775
      430782 425789 420794 416800 415804 415809 416816 418825
      420827 422830 420832 428831 429829 432828 433838 435843
      435847 429851 425855 424859 424864 424870 427872 430874
      434874 437875 439880 439893 433911 431918 431926 438942
      446942 450940 462928 472920 476920 480922 484929 492937
      494932 494925 494911 497894 500883 501874 501862 500856
      502852 506844 508839 508833 510825 514819 522805 524797
      526794 526789 527782 529777 532771 534755
 0.01 517151 517146 516143 514134 512129 511126 508125 503125
      498126 496128 495126 492124 490122 487118 484113 480107
      475111 472116 471120 473123 485127 494134 503142 507146
      513149 515152 517151
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      471091 472093 474091 476089
 0.01 449056 450049 448044 448039 447034 444029 442026 437026
      436031 436035 438040 439045 442050 444053 447056 449056
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 354733 349724 348718 345712 339704 333706 328709 314725
      299739 292745 288749 285754 278759 276761 272762 269760
      266761 257764 248770 234786 229793 228799 228805 227831
      225841 226849 228855 231858 234862 238866 244865 249865
      254863 264858 271853 279845 285839 291828 292823 297821
      308817 312816 316812 320808 323803 327795 329787 331783
      352746 354733
 0.01 361958 361953 360948 352943 345940 341938 337936 339932
      343927 341923 337920 330917 317917 314919 312920 310918
      305918 300916 296914 295918 295922 292924 284920 278914
      275912 268911 266907 268902 266899 264896 261894 258895
      256897 253905 251914 251916 250919 247919 246923 246929
      248934 251937 261939 266944 270947 274947 281943 283941
      287939 290941 287949 286955 284960 283964 282970 284975
      287976 290975 296971 299967 301962 307956 310954 312958
      314959 321963 330965 336965 341965 346963 352963 358962
      361958
 0.25 529199 530192 527188 523178 517169 508164 492159 485153
      476152 461140 459143 457149 457154 460159 463161 465167
      469170 474171 478174 480179 485189 494186 498186 504188
      519199 525203 529199
 0.25 518273 519268 520261 517251 511233 504217 499210 494203
      488199 484199 480201 467210 462211 454213 447215 438216
      433219 431223 431231 428234 425235 416234 410238 404243
      402246 400249 402251 405258 407260 410261 419259 432255
      438252 445249 460245 466244 475247 485250 487253 488257
      491265 495273 502280 504281 508280 514278 518273
 0.25 491142 490139 488136 486134 484133 481131 478131 476131
      473133 474136 477139 478140 481140 484140 487141 488142
      491142
 0.25 483857 483854 482852 482849 482847 481845 481844 480843
      478843 476843 475844 474845 474848 474850 474853 475855
      475857 475858 476860 477862 479862 480861 482859 483857
 0.25 463181 464178 463174 460173 456174 454173 454169 452164
      450164 449168 448172 449176 452179 454184 457184 461183
      463181
 0.25 448638 448633 446631 441633 434636 428639 423642 421649
      425653 430654 437652 442649 446643 448638
 0.25 336952 336950 335949 334948 332949 332950 334951 335952
      336952 336952
 0.25 324775 322773 317774 310779 303783 296789 292796 290805
      293807 298807 304808 308805 314799 319792 322784 324775
 0.25 286808 285807 285806 283805 282804 281804 280804 279805
      278806 276807 276809 275811 276813 276815 276817 277819
      279818 281818 282817 283816 284815 284813 284812 285810
      286809 286808
 0.50 516264 516257 514249 512242 509235 503223 500217 496212
      486205 481205 476207 466212 461215 458216 454216 451217
      445218 441218 438220 437222 437226 442227 448226 454225
      457226 459230 459232 462234 468234 470239 476243 479239
      477232 473227 476221 482222 489225 493231 496237 498243
      503249 509261 513269 516264
 0.50 518185 516180 513177 510175 505171 502170 499170 495171
      497176 500178 505180 508183 511186 515188 518185
 0.50 489170 489169 488167 488166 486164 485161 483161 482160
      481160 480159 479160 478162 478165 479166 481167 481168
      482169 484170 485171 487172 489171 489170
 0.50 472158 470157 469155 468152 467151 466149 464149 462151
      461153 462154 463156 464156 465157 467157 468157 468156
      469158 469160 470161 471160 472158
 0.50 431246 431243 430240 426238 423237 419236 416237 414238
      415243 414246 414250 417253 420253 422252 424250 426249
      429248 431246
 0.50 318780 316781 316782 318781 318780
 0.50 317785 315783 314783 312786 310788 308790 307793 306795
      307798 308797 311794 312792 314790 316787 317785
 1.00 501233 501230 500227 500224 499223 499221 498220 497218
      495219 494220 493222 494224 494225 495227 496228 497230
      498232 500234 501233
 1.00 489216 489214 489213 488210 486209 484208 483207 481207
      480208 479208 477209 477210 476211 475212 475213 476215
      477215 478217 480218 481218 483218 485218 486218 487217
      488216 489216
 1.00 463221 463218 462218 461220 462221 463221
 1.50 483214 484212 483209 482209 481209 479210 479213 480215
      482215 483214

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 480616 491626 499638 506649 512665 525695 530716 532730
      532737 531742 532755 531759 532766 530773 529777 527780
      516788 512786 504787 501788 498787 491787 488786 484786
      481787 478786 478789 483796 487803 491810 493817 501832
      506850 508858 510864 515869 519874 524881 529886 537898
      541903 545909 550917 552919 552925 552932 553936 556941
      558943 560945 561949 563952 563959 563984 562994 561004
      559018 556026 553034 549039 538043 530043 526044 523044
      496050 490051 488053 484054 480057 476061 470066 467068
      464067 455057 451051 444047 441045 439042 438038 438033
      458023 462022 464019 466016 464013 462013 459013 457011
      454013 451012 438016 434018 430018 430014 429010 429989
      429978 432976 436975 443971 438964 435959 431952 426940
      426929 424921 427903 425899 422895 418890 413884 411882
      412879 407866 410856 410853 413851 423841 433833 445828
      446826 445823 442821 441822 439820 437816 436810 439804
      440794 439791 437790 433791 429796 424803 421811 416816
      411817 409815 408809 408799 410793 415781 424770 423763
      421759 421755 420749 422746 430740 435736 436734 434733
      429733 427732 427729 430726 433725 436725 437722 437712
      442709 446704 448701 447697 445695 444691 442686 439685
      435686 433684 431682 430677 431670 432660 435651 438643
      442637 464622
 0.01 511297 517278 520264 520258 521251 520247 515242 512232
      508225 503218 497213 490211 481207 480205 476207 471208
      466209 462210 456213 442214 439216 435215 432218 430221
      431226 434229 442231 448244 451245 453249 457255 461263
      463273 461280 461284 465290 466297 463301 458307 479327
      482331 484330 487329 490328 496325 498321 502317 505309
      510300
 0.01 490147 488144 487143 485141 484138 482135 479132 478131
      476131 477134 478137 480140 482141 483144 485146 488147
      490147
 0.01 478162 475156 471148 466143 464140 464136 462131 461131
      458134 458138 459144 456145 454147 455150 458158 460162
      462163 471166 473165 476162 478162
 0.01 480105 480102 479099 477096 476093 474091 471090 467090
      467092 467097 468100 470101 471103 473106 476107 478107
      480105
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 459086 457083 452076 448070 441067
      437068 434070 433072 434076 436078 444081 448084 450088
      455093 457097 457100 455098 453095 450092 445094 442093
      439091 435097 432106 432109 435112 439113 443116 445118
      446123 449124 451121 454117 457115 462111
 0.01 459793 459790 459788 457786 455786 454787 452787 450789
      449790 447792 446795 448797 449799 451799 453801 455801
      457802 458800 458798 458795 459793
 0.01 415076 414072 412068 415066 416062 410063 408064 406063
      405061 404058 400057 397057 395059 394065 396069 396072
      399076 399079 402077 403073 404070 406070 408075 411076
      415076
 0.01 389677 388668 385661 382657 377660 367668 354675 332687
      321695 311702 300709 294712 289715 269731 261739 254748
      241769 235778 231789 226799 223813 222816 222820 224826
      234829 237835 241838 248839 257838 272837 287836 292834
      297830 299828 302826 309827 315825 321822 325819 328814
      337806 342802 348798 352793 354787 356774 360760 362754
      367749 375725 384699 385692 387687 389677
 0.25 512274 514264 512258 509252 506251 500252 497257 496262
      498270 500277 503281 504285 507285 507280 509278 512274
 0.25 530978 531972 531966 528958 526948 524939 518925 510911
      503900 496886 493879 489873 487870 487864 485860 482858
      473848 470848 467849 464851 464856 463865 464874 464881
      466887 468890 470892 471897 473905 479920 485935 486945
      487951 486954 483957 482961 484968 488975 493980 504987
      509991 515990 520988 523985 528982 530978
 0.25 483644 483641 483639 482636 481635 481634 480634 478633
      476634 475636 475639 476641 477643 478643 479645 480645
      481646 483645 483644
 0.25 375687 374681 370679 365679 359682 352687 340692 333698
      324703 307716 294728 282742 276750 271758 267767 264777
      260786 259791 260797 250814 248820 249823 252824 260827
      264825 267821 274814 319811 327807 334802 342795 347786
      350762 353752 357742 373704 375696 375687
 0.50 365696 364692 360690 353693 343697 335702 326707 320711
      313717 307723 301730 297736 293744 288751 283758 280766
      276773 273783 269790 267794 267799 256812 254816 256820
      260820 263817 268812 272809 276807 285806 295807 303808
      309808 315807 324804 331800 338795 343788 345778 346768
      351749 356731 361722 363718 364713 365696
 1.00 351722 351713 347708 343708 336711 331714 327717 319726
      312735 306745 294764 288773 282783 280789 277793 279798
      284800 290801 297800 309801 316800 321799 332793 335789
      338783 341770 348745 351722
 1.50 344743 345737 344732 341722 336721 332723 328729 318742
      313747 307754 299766 297775 294782 293788 297790 305791
      312793 316794 321794 324792 327790 331783 338768 343750
      344743
 2.00 339744 338738 335740 329741 324744 318750 311758 306767
      305772 305777 307780 314785 319786 323783 330776 336767
      338763 339758 339744
 3.00 332761 331756 327755 324757 321759 317762 314766 314770
      316774 321775 325773 327770 330766 332761 332761

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042041
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON DAY 2 REACHES
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST LATER ON DAY 2 INTO DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORT
WAVE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.
SOME 09Z SREF WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMUM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE WA/OR COAST EARLY ON DAY 2...AND PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. THE 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WA CASCADES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHWEST OR AND NORTHWEST CA. AN AXIS
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE WA AND OR
CASCADES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN WA RANGE.
ANOTHER MAXIMUM WAS PLACED OVER THE KLAMATH RANGE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
OR AND NORTHWEST CA...WHERE AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS RANGE RECEIVES THE BEST INFLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR.

HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...PRODUCING
LIFT FOR QPF. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3...AND THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES ALONG A SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM ON DAY 3...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME
SPREAD DURING THAT TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO GUIDES A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOSTERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS ACROSS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LAKES.
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE UP OF MI
AND THE NORTHERN LP OF MI ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN TIME AND
FETCH...AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THESE AREAS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOMES FOCUSED ON A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN DAY 2.

OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATION IS MORE
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPEN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE OR LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE FETCH
IS NOT ALONG THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY
STATE.

DAY 3...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSES ND EARLY ON DAY 3 CLOSES OFF IN THE MID
LEVELS...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE SAME PATH. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF
A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ITSELF SHOULD
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.250 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US BORDER. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THAT SWATH SHOULD TOUCH
NORTHERNMOST MN INTO THE UP OF MI....WITH LESSER QPF AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN...NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MI.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON DAY
3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS ARE ON THE FASTER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
SURFACE LOW...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM (AND HAS SUPPORT OF
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN)...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z
ECMWF.

DAY 2...
A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY CROSSES FL DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TRANSPORT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INSTABILITY WAS GENERALLY LACKING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL...LED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...FOR A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTH FL.

DAY 3...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
DAY 3 HELPS TO SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF
THE FL EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE
TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST...LEAVING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OPEN AS IT GOES NEGATIVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT
MODELS TREND OF BEING FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
SYSTEMS.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO DEVELOPING
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS THAT WRAP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES TO REACH BACK TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST
NC...COASTAL SC AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT...DUE TO THE SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
SOLUTIONS...THAT THE FORECAST HERE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. TRENDS
NEED TO BE FOLLOWED...AND CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF COULD BE FORTHCOMING.



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/HAYES

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 487614 482626 476636 469646 462656 454665 446674 429690
      420698 409704 396708 389709 387708 383709 380715 377715
      373713 369709 360702 356699 352694 348690 345686 344679
      349673 353672 355670 358668 368661 390648 393645
 0.01 523262 524253 523246 526226 528218 529215 531213 535215
      538210 539199 536192 533185 534176 532168 535160 535154
      537150 538139 541130 542122 541118 534108 530103 528094
      526086 525082 526077 534067 536065 541066 546069 553075
      558070 560063 561060 561056 562051 563030 563018 564012
      565007 564995 564980 563977 562971 559966 552960 545960
      540963 536968 531971 515985 499004 496008 493015 492026
      489035 470036 463045 465050 469053 469070 466065 464061
      464057 463055 461056 456057 453058 452061 452069 459081
      464085 467090 470095 472098 470102 460101 458102 456100
      453094 446093 440096 436097 433095 428090 426091 427093
      429097 430102 427104 423106 422111 424113 426115 425118
      423122 424127 426127 433119 438116 442122 445124 448125
      450127 451131 449139 444143 440140 439138 437139 434146
      434152 435155 441167 442170 441173 438177 431187 430197
      433203 434207 431210 427214 422219 419225 415228 410230
      401238 399240 395240 392241 391244 382271 380273 379278
      378288 381290 387287 394286 399291 404291 410288 427278
      444268 454263 459261 462260 466260 472266 475271 478276
      482283 487295 491300 496302 500298 505298 508292 510289
      513289
 0.01 534755 533746 530737 520725 517718 514712 511707 509704
      505696 501690 497685 492685 485691 475700 468705 461705
      457706 455705 447707 442713 441715 442721 445723 444727
      446732 444736 439740 435746 433754 434763 434768 434775
      430782 425789 420794 416800 415804 415809 416816 418825
      420827 422830 420832 428831 429829 432828 433838 435843
      435847 429851 425855 424859 424864 424870 427872 430874
      434874 437875 439880 439893 433911 431918 431926 438942
      446942 450940 462928 472920 476920 480922 484929 492937
      494932 494925 494911 497894 500883 501874 501862 500856
      502852 506844 508839 508833 510825 514819 522805 524797
      526794 526789 527782 529777 532771 534755
 0.01 517151 517146 516143 514134 512129 511126 508125 503125
      498126 496128 495126 492124 490122 487118 484113 480107
      475111 472116 471120 473123 485127 494134 503142 507146
      513149 515152 517151
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      471091 472093 474091 476089
 0.01 449056 450049 448044 448039 447034 444029 442026 437026
      436031 436035 438040 439045 442050 444053 447056 449056
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 354733 349724 348718 345712 339704 333706 328709 314725
      299739 292745 288749 285754 278759 276761 272762 269760
      266761 257764 248770 234786 229793 228799 228805 227831
      225841 226849 228855 231858 234862 238866 244865 249865
      254863 264858 271853 279845 285839 291828 292823 297821
      308817 312816 316812 320808 323803 327795 329787 331783
      352746 354733
 0.01 361958 361953 360948 352943 345940 341938 337936 339932
      343927 341923 337920 330917 317917 314919 312920 310918
      305918 300916 296914 295918 295922 292924 284920 278914
      275912 268911 266907 268902 266899 264896 261894 258895
      256897 253905 251914 251916 250919 247919 246923 246929
      248934 251937 261939 266944 270947 274947 281943 283941
      287939 290941 287949 286955 284960 283964 282970 284975
      287976 290975 296971 299967 301962 307956 310954 312958
      314959 321963 330965 336965 341965 346963 352963 358962
      361958
 0.25 529199 530192 527188 523178 517169 508164 492159 485153
      476152 461140 459143 457149 457154 460159 463161 465167
      469170 474171 478174 480179 485189 494186 498186 504188
      519199 525203 529199
 0.25 518273 519268 520261 517251 511233 504217 499210 494203
      488199 484199 480201 467210 462211 454213 447215 438216
      433219 431223 431231 428234 425235 416234 410238 404243
      402246 400249 402251 405258 407260 410261 419259 432255
      438252 445249 460245 466244 475247 485250 487253 488257
      491265 495273 502280 504281 508280 514278 518273
 0.25 491142 490139 488136 486134 484133 481131 478131 476131
      473133 474136 477139 478140 481140 484140 487141 488142
      491142
 0.25 483857 483854 482852 482849 482847 481845 481844 480843
      478843 476843 475844 474845 474848 474850 474853 475855
      475857 475858 476860 477862 479862 480861 482859 483857
 0.25 463181 464178 463174 460173 456174 454173 454169 452164
      450164 449168 448172 449176 452179 454184 457184 461183
      463181
 0.25 448638 448633 446631 441633 434636 428639 423642 421649
      425653 430654 437652 442649 446643 448638
 0.25 336952 336950 335949 334948 332949 332950 334951 335952
      336952 336952
 0.25 324775 322773 317774 310779 303783 296789 292796 290805
      293807 298807 304808 308805 314799 319792 322784 324775
 0.25 286808 285807 285806 283805 282804 281804 280804 279805
      278806 276807 276809 275811 276813 276815 276817 277819
      279818 281818 282817 283816 284815 284813 284812 285810
      286809 286808
 0.50 516264 516257 514249 512242 509235 503223 500217 496212
      486205 481205 476207 466212 461215 458216 454216 451217
      445218 441218 438220 437222 437226 442227 448226 454225
      457226 459230 459232 462234 468234 470239 476243 479239
      477232 473227 476221 482222 489225 493231 496237 498243
      503249 509261 513269 516264
 0.50 518185 516180 513177 510175 505171 502170 499170 495171
      497176 500178 505180 508183 511186 515188 518185
 0.50 489170 489169 488167 488166 486164 485161 483161 482160
      481160 480159 479160 478162 478165 479166 481167 481168
      482169 484170 485171 487172 489171 489170
 0.50 472158 470157 469155 468152 467151 466149 464149 462151
      461153 462154 463156 464156 465157 467157 468157 468156
      469158 469160 470161 471160 472158
 0.50 431246 431243 430240 426238 423237 419236 416237 414238
      415243 414246 414250 417253 420253 422252 424250 426249
      429248 431246
 0.50 318780 316781 316782 318781 318780
 0.50 317785 315783 314783 312786 310788 308790 307793 306795
      307798 308797 311794 312792 314790 316787 317785
 1.00 501233 501230 500227 500224 499223 499221 498220 497218
      495219 494220 493222 494224 494225 495227 496228 497230
      498232 500234 501233
 1.00 489216 489214 489213 488210 486209 484208 483207 481207
      480208 479208 477209 477210 476211 475212 475213 476215
      477215 478217 480218 481218 483218 485218 486218 487217
      488216 489216
 1.00 463221 463218 462218 461220 462221 463221
 1.50 483214 484212 483209 482209 481209 479210 479213 480215
      482215 483214

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 480616 491626 499638 506649 512665 525695 530716 532730
      532737 531742 532755 531759 532766 530773 529777 527780
      516788 512786 504787 501788 498787 491787 488786 484786
      481787 478786 478789 483796 487803 491810 493817 501832
      506850 508858 510864 515869 519874 524881 529886 537898
      541903 545909 550917 552919 552925 552932 553936 556941
      558943 560945 561949 563952 563959 563984 562994 561004
      559018 556026 553034 549039 538043 530043 526044 523044
      496050 490051 488053 484054 480057 476061 470066 467068
      464067 455057 451051 444047 441045 439042 438038 438033
      458023 462022 464019 466016 464013 462013 459013 457011
      454013 451012 438016 434018 430018 430014 429010 429989
      429978 432976 436975 443971 438964 435959 431952 426940
      426929 424921 427903 425899 422895 418890 413884 411882
      412879 407866 410856 410853 413851 423841 433833 445828
      446826 445823 442821 441822 439820 437816 436810 439804
      440794 439791 437790 433791 429796 424803 421811 416816
      411817 409815 408809 408799 410793 415781 424770 423763
      421759 421755 420749 422746 430740 435736 436734 434733
      429733 427732 427729 430726 433725 436725 437722 437712
      442709 446704 448701 447697 445695 444691 442686 439685
      435686 433684 431682 430677 431670 432660 435651 438643
      442637 464622
 0.01 511297 517278 520264 520258 521251 520247 515242 512232
      508225 503218 497213 490211 481207 480205 476207 471208
      466209 462210 456213 442214 439216 435215 432218 430221
      431226 434229 442231 448244 451245 453249 457255 461263
      463273 461280 461284 465290 466297 463301 458307 479327
      482331 484330 487329 490328 496325 498321 502317 505309
      510300
 0.01 490147 488144 487143 485141 484138 482135 479132 478131
      476131 477134 478137 480140 482141 483144 485146 488147
      490147
 0.01 478162 475156 471148 466143 464140 464136 462131 461131
      458134 458138 459144 456145 454147 455150 458158 460162
      462163 471166 473165 476162 478162
 0.01 480105 480102 479099 477096 476093 474091 471090 467090
      467092 467097 468100 470101 471103 473106 476107 478107
      480105
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 459086 457083 452076 448070 441067
      437068 434070 433072 434076 436078 444081 448084 450088
      455093 457097 457100 455098 453095 450092 445094 442093
      439091 435097 432106 432109 435112 439113 443116 445118
      446123 449124 451121 454117 457115 462111
 0.01 459793 459790 459788 457786 455786 454787 452787 450789
      449790 447792 446795 448797 449799 451799 453801 455801
      457802 458800 458798 458795 459793
 0.01 415076 414072 412068 415066 416062 410063 408064 406063
      405061 404058 400057 397057 395059 394065 396069 396072
      399076 399079 402077 403073 404070 406070 408075 411076
      415076
 0.01 389677 388668 385661 382657 377660 367668 354675 332687
      321695 311702 300709 294712 289715 269731 261739 254748
      241769 235778 231789 226799 223813 222816 222820 224826
      234829 237835 241838 248839 257838 272837 287836 292834
      297830 299828 302826 309827 315825 321822 325819 328814
      337806 342802 348798 352793 354787 356774 360760 362754
      367749 375725 384699 385692 387687 389677
 0.25 512274 514264 512258 509252 506251 500252 497257 496262
      498270 500277 503281 504285 507285 507280 509278 512274
 0.25 530978 531972 531966 528958 526948 524939 518925 510911
      503900 496886 493879 489873 487870 487864 485860 482858
      473848 470848 467849 464851 464856 463865 464874 464881
      466887 468890 470892 471897 473905 479920 485935 486945
      487951 486954 483957 482961 484968 488975 493980 504987
      509991 515990 520988 523985 528982 530978
 0.25 483644 483641 483639 482636 481635 481634 480634 478633
      476634 475636 475639 476641 477643 478643 479645 480645
      481646 483645 483644
 0.25 375687 374681 370679 365679 359682 352687 340692 333698
      324703 307716 294728 282742 276750 271758 267767 264777
      260786 259791 260797 250814 248820 249823 252824 260827
      264825 267821 274814 319811 327807 334802 342795 347786
      350762 353752 357742 373704 375696 375687
 0.50 365696 364692 360690 353693 343697 335702 326707 320711
      313717 307723 301730 297736 293744 288751 283758 280766
      276773 273783 269790 267794 267799 256812 254816 256820
      260820 263817 268812 272809 276807 285806 295807 303808
      309808 315807 324804 331800 338795 343788 345778 346768
      351749 356731 361722 363718 364713 365696
 1.00 351722 351713 347708 343708 336711 331714 327717 319726
      312735 306745 294764 288773 282783 280789 277793 279798
      284800 290801 297800 309801 316800 321799 332793 335789
      338783 341770 348745 351722
 1.50 344743 345737 344732 341722 336721 332723 328729 318742
      313747 307754 299766 297775 294782 293788 297790 305791
      312793 316794 321794 324792 327790 331783 338768 343750
      344743
 2.00 339744 338738 335740 329741 324744 318750 311758 306767
      305772 305777 307780 314785 319786 323783 330776 336767
      338763 339758 339744
 3.00 332761 331756 327755 324757 321759 317762 314766 314770
      316774 321775 325773 327770 330766 332761 332761

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042041
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON DAY 2 REACHES
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST LATER ON DAY 2 INTO DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORT
WAVE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.
SOME 09Z SREF WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMUM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE WA/OR COAST EARLY ON DAY 2...AND PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. THE 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WA CASCADES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHWEST OR AND NORTHWEST CA. AN AXIS
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE WA AND OR
CASCADES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN WA RANGE.
ANOTHER MAXIMUM WAS PLACED OVER THE KLAMATH RANGE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
OR AND NORTHWEST CA...WHERE AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS RANGE RECEIVES THE BEST INFLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR.

HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...PRODUCING
LIFT FOR QPF. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3...AND THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES ALONG A SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOME FOCUSED ON
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM ON DAY 3...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME
SPREAD DURING THAT TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO GUIDES A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOSTERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS ACROSS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER LAKES.
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE UP OF MI
AND THE NORTHERN LP OF MI ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN TIME AND
FETCH...AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THESE AREAS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOMES FOCUSED ON A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN DAY 2.

OVER THE LOWER LAKES...THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATION IS MORE
PRONOUNCED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPEN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE OR LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE FETCH
IS NOT ALONG THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE LAKE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY
STATE.

DAY 3...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSES ND EARLY ON DAY 3 CLOSES OFF IN THE MID
LEVELS...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE SAME PATH. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF
A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ITSELF SHOULD
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.250 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US BORDER. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THAT SWATH SHOULD TOUCH
NORTHERNMOST MN INTO THE UP OF MI....WITH LESSER QPF AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN...NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MI.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL DURING DAY
2...AND THE FRONT ACTS AS A CONDUIT FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON DAY
3...A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE DEEPENS AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS ARE ON THE FASTER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
SURFACE LOW...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM (AND HAS SUPPORT OF
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN)...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z
ECMWF.

DAY 2...
A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY CROSSES FL DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TRANSPORT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INSTABILITY WAS GENERALLY LACKING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO THE QPF SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEPENING MOISTURE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL...LED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...FOR A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTH FL.

DAY 3...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
DAY 3 HELPS TO SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...GENERALLY OFF
THE FL EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS CAN BE
TRACED TO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE BOTTOM OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AS IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST...LEAVING THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OPEN AS IT GOES NEGATIVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT
MODELS TREND OF BEING FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
SYSTEMS.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS SYSTEMS TO THE COAST
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO DEVELOPING
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS THAT WRAP BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES TO REACH BACK TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST
NC...COASTAL SC AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT...DUE TO THE SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
SOLUTIONS...THAT THE FORECAST HERE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. TRENDS
NEED TO BE FOLLOWED...AND CHANGES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF COULD BE FORTHCOMING.



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/HAYES

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 487614 482626 476636 469646 462656 454665 446674 429690
      420698 409704 396708 389709 387708 383709 380715 377715
      373713 369709 360702 356699 352694 348690 345686 344679
      349673 353672 355670 358668 368661 390648 393645
 0.01 523262 524253 523246 526226 528218 529215 531213 535215
      538210 539199 536192 533185 534176 532168 535160 535154
      537150 538139 541130 542122 541118 534108 530103 528094
      526086 525082 526077 534067 536065 541066 546069 553075
      558070 560063 561060 561056 562051 563030 563018 564012
      565007 564995 564980 563977 562971 559966 552960 545960
      540963 536968 531971 515985 499004 496008 493015 492026
      489035 470036 463045 465050 469053 469070 466065 464061
      464057 463055 461056 456057 453058 452061 452069 459081
      464085 467090 470095 472098 470102 460101 458102 456100
      453094 446093 440096 436097 433095 428090 426091 427093
      429097 430102 427104 423106 422111 424113 426115 425118
      423122 424127 426127 433119 438116 442122 445124 448125
      450127 451131 449139 444143 440140 439138 437139 434146
      434152 435155 441167 442170 441173 438177 431187 430197
      433203 434207 431210 427214 422219 419225 415228 410230
      401238 399240 395240 392241 391244 382271 380273 379278
      378288 381290 387287 394286 399291 404291 410288 427278
      444268 454263 459261 462260 466260 472266 475271 478276
      482283 487295 491300 496302 500298 505298 508292 510289
      513289
 0.01 534755 533746 530737 520725 517718 514712 511707 509704
      505696 501690 497685 492685 485691 475700 468705 461705
      457706 455705 447707 442713 441715 442721 445723 444727
      446732 444736 439740 435746 433754 434763 434768 434775
      430782 425789 420794 416800 415804 415809 416816 418825
      420827 422830 420832 428831 429829 432828 433838 435843
      435847 429851 425855 424859 424864 424870 427872 430874
      434874 437875 439880 439893 433911 431918 431926 438942
      446942 450940 462928 472920 476920 480922 484929 492937
      494932 494925 494911 497894 500883 501874 501862 500856
      502852 506844 508839 508833 510825 514819 522805 524797
      526794 526789 527782 529777 532771 534755
 0.01 517151 517146 516143 514134 512129 511126 508125 503125
      498126 496128 495126 492124 490122 487118 484113 480107
      475111 472116 471120 473123 485127 494134 503142 507146
      513149 515152 517151
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      471091 472093 474091 476089
 0.01 449056 450049 448044 448039 447034 444029 442026 437026
      436031 436035 438040 439045 442050 444053 447056 449056
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 354733 349724 348718 345712 339704 333706 328709 314725
      299739 292745 288749 285754 278759 276761 272762 269760
      266761 257764 248770 234786 229793 228799 228805 227831
      225841 226849 228855 231858 234862 238866 244865 249865
      254863 264858 271853 279845 285839 291828 292823 297821
      308817 312816 316812 320808 323803 327795 329787 331783
      352746 354733
 0.01 361958 361953 360948 352943 345940 341938 337936 339932
      343927 341923 337920 330917 317917 314919 312920 310918
      305918 300916 296914 295918 295922 292924 284920 278914
      275912 268911 266907 268902 266899 264896 261894 258895
      256897 253905 251914 251916 250919 247919 246923 246929
      248934 251937 261939 266944 270947 274947 281943 283941
      287939 290941 287949 286955 284960 283964 282970 284975
      287976 290975 296971 299967 301962 307956 310954 312958
      314959 321963 330965 336965 341965 346963 352963 358962
      361958
 0.25 529199 530192 527188 523178 517169 508164 492159 485153
      476152 461140 459143 457149 457154 460159 463161 465167
      469170 474171 478174 480179 485189 494186 498186 504188
      519199 525203 529199
 0.25 518273 519268 520261 517251 511233 504217 499210 494203
      488199 484199 480201 467210 462211 454213 447215 438216
      433219 431223 431231 428234 425235 416234 410238 404243
      402246 400249 402251 405258 407260 410261 419259 432255
      438252 445249 460245 466244 475247 485250 487253 488257
      491265 495273 502280 504281 508280 514278 518273
 0.25 491142 490139 488136 486134 484133 481131 478131 476131
      473133 474136 477139 478140 481140 484140 487141 488142
      491142
 0.25 483857 483854 482852 482849 482847 481845 481844 480843
      478843 476843 475844 474845 474848 474850 474853 475855
      475857 475858 476860 477862 479862 480861 482859 483857
 0.25 463181 464178 463174 460173 456174 454173 454169 452164
      450164 449168 448172 449176 452179 454184 457184 461183
      463181
 0.25 448638 448633 446631 441633 434636 428639 423642 421649
      425653 430654 437652 442649 446643 448638
 0.25 336952 336950 335949 334948 332949 332950 334951 335952
      336952 336952
 0.25 324775 322773 317774 310779 303783 296789 292796 290805
      293807 298807 304808 308805 314799 319792 322784 324775
 0.25 286808 285807 285806 283805 282804 281804 280804 279805
      278806 276807 276809 275811 276813 276815 276817 277819
      279818 281818 282817 283816 284815 284813 284812 285810
      286809 286808
 0.50 516264 516257 514249 512242 509235 503223 500217 496212
      486205 481205 476207 466212 461215 458216 454216 451217
      445218 441218 438220 437222 437226 442227 448226 454225
      457226 459230 459232 462234 468234 470239 476243 479239
      477232 473227 476221 482222 489225 493231 496237 498243
      503249 509261 513269 516264
 0.50 518185 516180 513177 510175 505171 502170 499170 495171
      497176 500178 505180 508183 511186 515188 518185
 0.50 489170 489169 488167 488166 486164 485161 483161 482160
      481160 480159 479160 478162 478165 479166 481167 481168
      482169 484170 485171 487172 489171 489170
 0.50 472158 470157 469155 468152 467151 466149 464149 462151
      461153 462154 463156 464156 465157 467157 468157 468156
      469158 469160 470161 471160 472158
 0.50 431246 431243 430240 426238 423237 419236 416237 414238
      415243 414246 414250 417253 420253 422252 424250 426249
      429248 431246
 0.50 318780 316781 316782 318781 318780
 0.50 317785 315783 314783 312786 310788 308790 307793 306795
      307798 308797 311794 312792 314790 316787 317785
 1.00 501233 501230 500227 500224 499223 499221 498220 497218
      495219 494220 493222 494224 494225 495227 496228 497230
      498232 500234 501233
 1.00 489216 489214 489213 488210 486209 484208 483207 481207
      480208 479208 477209 477210 476211 475212 475213 476215
      477215 478217 480218 481218 483218 485218 486218 487217
      488216 489216
 1.00 463221 463218 462218 461220 462221 463221
 1.50 483214 484212 483209 482209 481209 479210 479213 480215
      482215 483214

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 480616 491626 499638 506649 512665 525695 530716 532730
      532737 531742 532755 531759 532766 530773 529777 527780
      516788 512786 504787 501788 498787 491787 488786 484786
      481787 478786 478789 483796 487803 491810 493817 501832
      506850 508858 510864 515869 519874 524881 529886 537898
      541903 545909 550917 552919 552925 552932 553936 556941
      558943 560945 561949 563952 563959 563984 562994 561004
      559018 556026 553034 549039 538043 530043 526044 523044
      496050 490051 488053 484054 480057 476061 470066 467068
      464067 455057 451051 444047 441045 439042 438038 438033
      458023 462022 464019 466016 464013 462013 459013 457011
      454013 451012 438016 434018 430018 430014 429010 429989
      429978 432976 436975 443971 438964 435959 431952 426940
      426929 424921 427903 425899 422895 418890 413884 411882
      412879 407866 410856 410853 413851 423841 433833 445828
      446826 445823 442821 441822 439820 437816 436810 439804
      440794 439791 437790 433791 429796 424803 421811 416816
      411817 409815 408809 408799 410793 415781 424770 423763
      421759 421755 420749 422746 430740 435736 436734 434733
      429733 427732 427729 430726 433725 436725 437722 437712
      442709 446704 448701 447697 445695 444691 442686 439685
      435686 433684 431682 430677 431670 432660 435651 438643
      442637 464622
 0.01 511297 517278 520264 520258 521251 520247 515242 512232
      508225 503218 497213 490211 481207 480205 476207 471208
      466209 462210 456213 442214 439216 435215 432218 430221
      431226 434229 442231 448244 451245 453249 457255 461263
      463273 461280 461284 465290 466297 463301 458307 479327
      482331 484330 487329 490328 496325 498321 502317 505309
      510300
 0.01 490147 488144 487143 485141 484138 482135 479132 478131
      476131 477134 478137 480140 482141 483144 485146 488147
      490147
 0.01 478162 475156 471148 466143 464140 464136 462131 461131
      458134 458138 459144 456145 454147 455150 458158 460162
      462163 471166 473165 476162 478162
 0.01 480105 480102 479099 477096 476093 474091 471090 467090
      467092 467097 468100 470101 471103 473106 476107 478107
      480105
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 459086 457083 452076 448070 441067
      437068 434070 433072 434076 436078 444081 448084 450088
      455093 457097 457100 455098 453095 450092 445094 442093
      439091 435097 432106 432109 435112 439113 443116 445118
      446123 449124 451121 454117 457115 462111
 0.01 459793 459790 459788 457786 455786 454787 452787 450789
      449790 447792 446795 448797 449799 451799 453801 455801
      457802 458800 458798 458795 459793
 0.01 415076 414072 412068 415066 416062 410063 408064 406063
      405061 404058 400057 397057 395059 394065 396069 396072
      399076 399079 402077 403073 404070 406070 408075 411076
      415076
 0.01 389677 388668 385661 382657 377660 367668 354675 332687
      321695 311702 300709 294712 289715 269731 261739 254748
      241769 235778 231789 226799 223813 222816 222820 224826
      234829 237835 241838 248839 257838 272837 287836 292834
      297830 299828 302826 309827 315825 321822 325819 328814
      337806 342802 348798 352793 354787 356774 360760 362754
      367749 375725 384699 385692 387687 389677
 0.25 512274 514264 512258 509252 506251 500252 497257 496262
      498270 500277 503281 504285 507285 507280 509278 512274
 0.25 530978 531972 531966 528958 526948 524939 518925 510911
      503900 496886 493879 489873 487870 487864 485860 482858
      473848 470848 467849 464851 464856 463865 464874 464881
      466887 468890 470892 471897 473905 479920 485935 486945
      487951 486954 483957 482961 484968 488975 493980 504987
      509991 515990 520988 523985 528982 530978
 0.25 483644 483641 483639 482636 481635 481634 480634 478633
      476634 475636 475639 476641 477643 478643 479645 480645
      481646 483645 483644
 0.25 375687 374681 370679 365679 359682 352687 340692 333698
      324703 307716 294728 282742 276750 271758 267767 264777
      260786 259791 260797 250814 248820 249823 252824 260827
      264825 267821 274814 319811 327807 334802 342795 347786
      350762 353752 357742 373704 375696 375687
 0.50 365696 364692 360690 353693 343697 335702 326707 320711
      313717 307723 301730 297736 293744 288751 283758 280766
      276773 273783 269790 267794 267799 256812 254816 256820
      260820 263817 268812 272809 276807 285806 295807 303808
      309808 315807 324804 331800 338795 343788 345778 346768
      351749 356731 361722 363718 364713 365696
 1.00 351722 351713 347708 343708 336711 331714 327717 319726
      312735 306745 294764 288773 282783 280789 277793 279798
      284800 290801 297800 309801 316800 321799 332793 335789
      338783 341770 348745 351722
 1.50 344743 345737 344732 341722 336721 332723 328729 318742
      313747 307754 299766 297775 294782 293788 297790 305791
      312793 316794 321794 324792 327790 331783 338768 343750
      344743
 2.00 339744 338738 335740 329741 324744 318750 311758 306767
      305772 305777 307780 314785 319786 323783 330776 336767
      338763 339758 339744
 3.00 332761 331756 327755 324757 321759 317762 314766 314770
      316774 321775 325773 327770 330766 332761 332761

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 041900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 041900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 041900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 041420
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
919 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

...VALID 15Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S ASJ 35 ENE 9W7 50 E FFA 30 ESE HSE 65 SE SUT 30 SSW SUT
25 S ASJ.


1500 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
RATES MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS...BUT THOSE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY COME DOWN GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES
WHICH FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS TRIMMED
BACK A BIT...WITH LESS EXTENSION INLAND...NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE
OUTER BANKS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST EARLY
TODAY...LIKELY KEEPING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. WPC
FAVORED THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND GEM REGIONAL FOR QPF DETAILS...AND
BOTH INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...WITH OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXTENDING INLAND AS A FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO FORM IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET. ADDITIONAL AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST IN THE RISK
AREA...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
THOSE AMOUNTS OVER A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.


...NORTHERN FLORIDA...

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP UNUSUALLY
MOIST FEBRUARY AIR OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY. INFLOW SPEEDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES ARE RUNNING AT RECORD LEVELS FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. INSTABILITY HAD WANED AS OF EARLY MORNING...BUT THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS LATER TODAY MAY TAP INTO 250-750
J/KG CAPE PER NAM FORECASTS...SUPPORTING STRONG RAIN RATES IN THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM/HUMID ENVIRONMENT. WITH LINE SEGMENTS TRAINING
AND SHOWING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED 2.5 OR 3.0 INCHES LOCALLY. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...FLOW BEGINS TO VEER...AND CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE MORE OUTFLOW...PUSHING EASTWARD MORE RAPIDLY. A SLIGHT
RISK WAS CONSIDERED HERE GIVEN THE PW ANOMALIES AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN THAT WAS OBSERVED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SO HIGH OVER
FLORIDA...HOWEVER...THAT THE ODDS OF EXCEEDANCE AND OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040957
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
PARTS OF FL/GA AMIDST HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES
RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE.
WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND
VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY
BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD
00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO
BOTH CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO
VIRGINIA. THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE FAVORED FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
THE NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE ECMWF / OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
GRADIENT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...THE ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...AND
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK INCREASED WITH THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO
MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
SEE THE HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.


...NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN U.S...

WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH STRUCTURE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
STEERED TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
IN THE DAKOTAS AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SETS IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND...MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE
TROUGH...SUCH THAT THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL PRIMARILY HIT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A VERY MODEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF 0.25
INCH AMOUNTS BEING LIMITED TO THE BITTERROOTS THE THE TETONS. THIS
IS BACKED UP BY THE GEFS REFORECAST ANALOG CASES. WPC WAS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN STRONG CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE INCORPORATINS SOME DETAILS FROM THE 00Z NAM AND
GEM REGIONAL.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THUS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518236 515231 511225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 451214 446214
      433214 429219 428223 430226 434228 436231 436235 435238
      434244 437248 449250 456250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452273 448276 443280 438282 430289 421298 417305
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537202 536197 536193 534188 528174 525168 521162
      512153 501147 495142 492135 488129 487126 484124 480120
      477121 461121 460126 458129 452129 448131 446128 449126
      452125 456121 458121 458118 471114 478104 482099 483094
      482092 478091 474093 469092 466094 464095 463098 461099
      455094 452092 450092 436093 432091 430089 425086 427101
      424103 422102 420105 416105 412102 412098 412093 414085
      415080 418079 422077 426077 435078 437077 441077 448081
      450084 452086 453079 450073 446070 431068 437064 435057
      430046 428039 430032 432028 432021 432016 431012 428994
      427990 426989 424987 420987 416991 413998 412019 402027
      383040 385042 388043 391043 393040 401039 408045 409048
      407053 400053 396056 392061 387064 383070 379070 377069
      371066 369066 369068 372073 374078 374082 374084 376087
      378092 377098 379099 382098 385096 389095 394096 396094
      396092 400090 404091 405094 403107 391112 384115 381114
      378116 379120 381124 388136 394142 392149 406152 404155
      402155 396159 396166 392170 393172 399171 411165 417163
      421158 426148 431140 435134 440130 442133 441137 438138
      435144 434153 434157 436160 440166 442174 443182 441183
      441186 443189 448193 452196 456191 458188 461187 465179
      464177 462173 459171 459168 461166 470174 478176 485178
      492183 496187 504197 509202 511207 521215 526220 530216
      536209
 0.01 513126 512120 509117 504110 501101 498090 500084 500075
      501062 497041 495034 494028 490019 489015 488008 486997
      482987 479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996
      441000 441002 444005 449005 454003 459004 463006 466010
      465012 463013 458013 451017 447019 445024 449032 452034
      455035 458037 461038 460042 457044 455048 456052 459055
      463057 466058 474059 477059 478061 481066 484075 485078
      486085 487098 489109 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128
      511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472639 467636 462633 457632 451632 448630
      442631 435634 430637 424639 418641 414645 404653 398662
      370701 362710 354718 348725 339733 330742 321750 304763
      269788 250804 233816 228827 227833 227840 225852 226859
      229864 232865 235864 240860 248852 251851 253853 256859
      257864 260870 264872 268874 280876 295875 303869 312860
      319850 326841 333833 347820 362803 371793 379783 386774
      394767 408753 415745 424735 432724 436718 438713 444722
      438733 431756 426755 424760 424765 428772 432778 436780
      440767 444755 449744 456721 460716 464713 471703 470698
      466697 461698 454700 449704 442711 439711 440708 443703
      450694 456685 469664 473655 475646
 0.01 493848 493843 492839 489834 486831 481827 477827 471827
      463821 458817 454813 450800 448795 445793 442793 441796
      440799 438801 431812 428823 426829 426836 430838 433836
      441836 446837 441848 439851 437853 434852 432852 429850
      423850 415858 413861 414864 416868 428883 436893 441904
      444910 441914 438918 438923 441931 442941 442950 443956
      447964 450964 452962 454957 457950 459944 460937 460931
      459927 460923 462918 469908 470913 470918 470922 472925
      483926 486929 487930 489927 488921 486914 482908 480902
      479899 480895 482890 487880 488874 488864 490861 492856
      493848
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 431790 430782 427777 423779 418778 410779 408780 406782
      396789 392793 387795 379803 369811 365814 359816 351824
      348833 350831 354831 355835 357834 358830 362825 380814
      389806 397799 403795 409794 413794 415796 417804 418812
      421811 424806 424803 427803 430798 431790
 0.25 516283 520266 517254 513245 509237 503228 498219 494211
      484208 468212 452218 451220 453223 456225 461228 465226
      471221 478218 484219 488222 491225 493230 500248 496246
      492243 488241 485243 483247 483253 484259 483263 478274
      473282 467289 460292 454291 449291 443294 437299 431304
      432307 434306 438304 445302 453300 462300 472302 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453659 452651 450647 445643 437644 430646 424648 418652
      408662 397675 389686 380698 372708 361720 352729 334749
      323760 313768 308773 304779 301783 295788 285798 278811
      270822 264833 262836 262841 264849 267855 269859 272861
      279861 285860 292857 298853 310844 319835 329824 337816
      358795 367785 375775 381769 386763 395753 403743 411731
      428706 434691 441679 448668 453659
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.25 444111 442108 440107 439107 438107 438110 440111 442111
      443111 444111
 0.25 251832 249831 245829 243827 239827 236831 234836 233842
      234848 236851 239850 243846 246841 249837 251832
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506246
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488250 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 484214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      484214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 443662 443655 440652 433652 426653 420656 411664 401674
      396680 392685 385696 378706 369716 349735 333754 324764
      315773 307783 299792 290802 283812 277823 272834 270843
      272849 276854 281855 286853 292851 303843 313834 322825
      340808 359790 375771 406729 415715 421704 433680 438670
      443662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 428671 424666 418666 409673 402680 395689 380709 372718
      364726 354734 347742 333759 318777 303793 296804 295811
      292814 287822 285828 282833 281840 283846 286847 290846
      295843 302837 311830 329814 337806 345798 359780 367772
      374763 387743 400725 413703 424682 427676 428671
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 416684 415679 413677 408681 401689 395698 387707 353739
      344748 337756 324773 316783 311788 310793 305802 302806
      301813 298821 295826 290835 288841 293840 303833 320817
      324813 329810 336802 344793 347787 342788 332793 327796
      323796 320795 326791 334784 342777 355773 360769 365764
      371756 385738 392727 398718 410697 414690 416684
 2.00 403696 402694 401697 398701 391711 387715 380718 372724
      355740 346748 339757 325775 321780 319785 325784 330781
      339775 351769 356766 360762 367753 374744 381735 388725
      395715 400705 403696
 3.00 368741 366739 364740 356743 350748 345753 341759 337764
      336768 340768 347765 354761 358756 363751 366744 368741
 4.00 358748 358747 356747 354748 353748 352749 351751 350751
      349753 348754 347755 347756 347758 348760 350760 352759
      353757 355755 356752 357750 358748 358748

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 483623 486624 487626 486631 483640 479649 471668
      461684 438714 412740 404745 396752 390758 383762 377767
      368773 357775 352775 348774 344774 340772 335770 332767
      327781 324791 319800 314805 308810 304812 299813 292814
      288812 282808 275804 271797 265796 260799 252804 250808
      252812 256820 258825 257830 254832 251831 245831 242829
      239829 235828 233826 232823 231818 231808 233796 235788
      240779 245772 251768 258764 263761 269760 275764 277765
      276772 275774 274778 275780 276784 276788 278787 291778
      298773 305767 313762 318761 320758 318755 314753 309754
      299751 297749 297745 298741 301737 310722 313721 317718
      318713 321708 336695 342690 345686 344680 345676 349673
      354672 358669 366664 373658 383652 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538192 537184 535174 533169 530166 525160 522159
      520156 505148 493139 488134 481130 477129 473130 465129
      461128 458129 454129 450131 449135 445133 444135 446138
      447143 444145 436146 434149 434155 435158 436163 438172
      437178 435182 433185 431189 431198 433203 434207 428213
      423218 419224 417227 413228 407232 402238 397243 395245
      392250 390260 383277 383281 386284 388283 393284 396287
      397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507821 502814 498809 493805 482796 474797 470793
      466791 464787 462784 458785 455784 453779 451779 449782
      448785 448790 445797 435811 430814 425822 425824 429824
      432823 435821 443820 451821 453825 453831 449840 444845
      442848 441853 438861 436864 436868 439889 439895 438899
      434909 431916 429919 428925 420935 416940 416950 418952
      416956 412961 410966 410970 407981 406989 410994 413992
      415989 419983 422978 426969 429962 433953 435950 437952
      442957 447964 450966 450972 452980 455988 455993 457996
      461003 466008 471007 475998 477989 479979 479969 479959
      476957 475954 477952 481947 485943 493942 497942 499939
      502931 504926 504921 504915 502911 502906 500901 498896
      498891 500888 500881 501873 500860 500856 502852 506844
      509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391066 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 341939 337938 330934 325934
      323937 319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 464622 469632 470635 470640 467649 464655 456670 445683
      436695 428707 422714 416719 404729 399735 394739 386743
      379746 370750 363751 356750 350745 346737 343729 343724
      344720 347712 352706 357701 361694 366688 373683 378679
      382673 386666 392660 397656 405651 411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532192 531186 526179 519172 516170 511168 493163
      485157 483155 479156 470156 467159 467163 467166 473172
      477182 479186 482188 485187 487188 490188 489190 493193
      497191 504189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205
      532197
 0.25 519274 520267 520262 519252 517243 514234 511225 507219
      498205 493198 485195 473204 468207 461209 455211 449214
      441216 436219 433222 432228 432233 431236 416236 414240
      415244 414251 413256 412261 412266 415272 416276 419279
      428283 437285 445289 454292 461296 476299 483300 490299
      502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 519265 518259 517251 515242 512234 505220 501214
      495208 488203 482204 470210 445221 441220 442224 444226
      448228 449230 444235 434244 430245 427243 424242 422243
      422252 425259 429265 433267 436267 444267 450266 456263
      459262 463263 471266 475272 479278 483285 485287 490290
      496290 503290 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 464642 462639 459638 454636 446634 439638 426646 420650
      413655 402666 393677 373699 369705 366712 364715 361717
      356722 354725 353729 356736 362738 369736 384731 392727
      400724 411716 422704 430692 440680 449670 453664 457656
      464642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515262 515255 514248 512242 508232 503223 499217
      494215 486209 481208 477211 476214 477216 481220 487222
      489226 494238 492240 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229
      469235 469244 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 493280
      496283 501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 426661 424663 417669 410673 405680 399686 393691
      390698 384705 377708 372710 370713 370718 371721 376720
      381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703 404702
      409700 416696 420690 423685 424681 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 505276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THUS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 484622 480630 477641 473651 469661 464670 453686
      445701 440709 434717 429724 423730 415738 407743 379765
      371771 367773 363774 352775 342773 330769 331771 329777
      326786 322795 320800 316802 309808 302813 292814 289814
      286810 278806 273799 269796 263797 254802 251805 250809
      252814 255817 258825 258828 255832 251831 245831 237829
      234827 232823 231819 231813 231806 232801 234792 241777
      244773 248770 255766 263761 269760 273762 277765 276768
      276772 273776 276780 276784 274786 277788 280786 287780
      295775 303768 312762 320759 319755 316755 313754 309754
      304753 297750 297745 298741 303733 307726 310722 314720
      318716 319711 321708 326705 338694 341690 345685 344679
      346676 380654 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538194 537184 535174 530166 526161 522159 520156
      505148 499144 493139 488134 481130 477129 475130 466129
      459128 454129 450131 449134 445133 446138 447142 444144
      436146 434148 434154 436163 438171 438178 435182 431187
      431198 434206 432210 428213 424217 419224 417227 414228
      407232 397243 395245 393250 391253 390260 383277 383281
      386284 388283 393284 396287 397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507822 503816 498810 493806 482796 474797 470793
      466791 465788 464785 460784 456784 453781 452779 449781
      448790 446797 440805 439809 435811 430814 426820 425824
      428824 432824 434821 442820 449822 453824 453830 449840
      445844 442851 438860 436864 436867 439890 439895 438899
      434909 429921 428926 428928 425930 422931 420934 412961
      408977 407982 406988 410994 412993 415990 419984 426969
      431956 433952 435950 436952 442957 446963 449964 450968
      450972 452981 455988 455993 456996 460001 463005 465007
      468009 470007 474999 477989 479979 479969 479959 474954
      485944 489942 493942 496942 499939 502931 504926 504921
      503912 500903 499899 498892 500888 500882 501873 500860
      500856 502853 506844 509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391065 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 337938 330934 325934 323937
      319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 463623 464628 466631 468634 467638 462646 460652 457659
      453666 443679 429704 425711 419716 415721 407726 398735
      391740 384744 370750 362751 356750 351746 346739 344732
      343726 343721 346714 350708 355703 357701 360696 363691
      369686 374682 380676 384670 388663 392659 400654 405651
      411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532193 531187 526179 520173 516170 511168 493163
      486157 482155 479156 470156 467159 467166 473172 477182
      479185 481188 484187 487188 490187 489190 492193 497191
      503189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205 532197
 0.25 519274 520264 519252 517243 514234 511226 507219 498205
      494199 486195 473204 468207 462209 449214 442216 439217
      436219 434222 432227 432233 431236 424236 420235 416236
      414240 415244 414251 413256 412263 415272 418278 422281
      428283 436285 445289 453292 457293 461296 476299 483300
      490299 502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 518261 517252 515243 512234 505220 501214 495208
      489204 485203 482204 470210 445221 441219 441223 444225
      449230 444235 439239 434244 430245 427243 425242 422243
      422251 425259 429265 432267 436267 443267 450266 455263
      459262 463263 470265 475271 483285 489290 496290 502290
      505289 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 457642 456638 454636 448634 444635 440637 434641 421649
      416653 410658 400668 391679 382689 372699 369705 366712
      364715 361717 356722 353728 355735 360738 364738 369736
      396726 402722 408718 419708 434684 451660 455651 457642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515263 515255 514249 512242 508232 503223 500218
      494215 486209 481208 477211 477215 481220 486221 489226
      494238 493241 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229 470230
      469235 469243 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 496283
      501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 427661 424663 417669 410673 405680 400686 393691
      390698 387702 384705 377708 372710 370713 370717 371721
      376721 381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703
      404702 409700 416696 420690 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 506276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THUS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
WEAK LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 484622 480630 477641 473651 469661 464670 453686
      445701 440709 434717 429724 423730 415738 407743 379765
      371771 367773 363774 352775 342773 330769 331771 329777
      326786 322795 320800 316802 309808 302813 292814 289814
      286810 278806 273799 269796 263797 254802 251805 250809
      252814 255817 258825 258828 255832 251831 245831 237829
      234827 232823 231819 231813 231806 232801 234792 241777
      244773 248770 255766 263761 269760 273762 277765 276768
      276772 273776 276780 276784 274786 277788 280786 287780
      295775 303768 312762 320759 319755 316755 313754 309754
      304753 297750 297745 298741 303733 307726 310722 314720
      318716 319711 321708 326705 338694 341690 345685 344679
      346676 380654 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538194 537184 535174 530166 526161 522159 520156
      505148 499144 493139 488134 481130 477129 475130 466129
      459128 454129 450131 449134 445133 446138 447142 444144
      436146 434148 434154 436163 438171 438178 435182 431187
      431198 434206 432210 428213 424217 419224 417227 414228
      407232 397243 395245 393250 391253 390260 383277 383281
      386284 388283 393284 396287 397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507822 503816 498810 493806 482796 474797 470793
      466791 465788 464785 460784 456784 453781 452779 449781
      448790 446797 440805 439809 435811 430814 426820 425824
      428824 432824 434821 442820 449822 453824 453830 449840
      445844 442851 438860 436864 436867 439890 439895 438899
      434909 429921 428926 428928 425930 422931 420934 412961
      408977 407982 406988 410994 412993 415990 419984 426969
      431956 433952 435950 436952 442957 446963 449964 450968
      450972 452981 455988 455993 456996 460001 463005 465007
      468009 470007 474999 477989 479979 479969 479959 474954
      485944 489942 493942 496942 499939 502931 504926 504921
      503912 500903 499899 498892 500888 500882 501873 500860
      500856 502853 506844 509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391065 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 337938 330934 325934 323937
      319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 463623 464628 466631 468634 467638 462646 460652 457659
      453666 443679 429704 425711 419716 415721 407726 398735
      391740 384744 370750 362751 356750 351746 346739 344732
      343726 343721 346714 350708 355703 357701 360696 363691
      369686 374682 380676 384670 388663 392659 400654 405651
      411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532193 531187 526179 520173 516170 511168 493163
      486157 482155 479156 470156 467159 467166 473172 477182
      479185 481188 484187 487188 490187 489190 492193 497191
      503189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205 532197
 0.25 519274 520264 519252 517243 514234 511226 507219 498205
      494199 486195 473204 468207 462209 449214 442216 439217
      436219 434222 432227 432233 431236 424236 420235 416236
      414240 415244 414251 413256 412263 415272 418278 422281
      428283 436285 445289 453292 457293 461296 476299 483300
      490299 502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 518261 517252 515243 512234 505220 501214 495208
      489204 485203 482204 470210 445221 441219 441223 444225
      449230 444235 439239 434244 430245 427243 425242 422243
      422251 425259 429265 432267 436267 443267 450266 455263
      459262 463263 470265 475271 483285 489290 496290 502290
      505289 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 457642 456638 454636 448634 444635 440637 434641 421649
      416653 410658 400668 391679 382689 372699 369705 366712
      364715 361717 356722 353728 355735 360738 364738 369736
      396726 402722 408718 419708 434684 451660 455651 457642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515263 515255 514249 512242 508232 503223 500218
      494215 486209 481208 477211 477215 481220 486221 489226
      494238 493241 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229 470230
      469235 469243 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 496283
      501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 427661 424663 417669 410673 405680 400686 393691
      390698 387702 384705 377708 372710 370713 370717 371721
      376721 381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703
      404702 409700 416696 420690 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 506276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE INA MOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THIS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN O INTERACT WITH A WEAK
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST SON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN O MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY S
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BORDER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EATS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS INA  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 484622 480630 477641 473651 469661 464670 453686
      445701 440709 434717 429724 423730 415738 407743 379765
      371771 367773 363774 352775 342773 330769 331771 329777
      326786 322795 320800 316802 309808 302813 292814 289814
      286810 278806 273799 269796 263797 254802 251805 250809
      252814 255817 258825 258828 255832 251831 245831 237829
      234827 232823 231819 231813 231806 232801 234792 241777
      244773 248770 255766 263761 269760 273762 277765 276768
      276772 273776 276780 276784 274786 277788 280786 287780
      295775 303768 312762 320759 319755 316755 313754 309754
      304753 297750 297745 298741 303733 307726 310722 314720
      318716 319711 321708 326705 338694 341690 345685 344679
      346676 380654 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538194 537184 535174 530166 526161 522159 520156
      505148 499144 493139 488134 481130 477129 475130 466129
      459128 454129 450131 449134 445133 446138 447142 444144
      436146 434148 434154 436163 438171 438178 435182 431187
      431198 434206 432210 428213 424217 419224 417227 414228
      407232 397243 395245 393250 391253 390260 383277 383281
      386284 388283 393284 396287 397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507822 503816 498810 493806 482796 474797 470793
      466791 465788 464785 460784 456784 453781 452779 449781
      448790 446797 440805 439809 435811 430814 426820 425824
      428824 432824 434821 442820 449822 453824 453830 449840
      445844 442851 438860 436864 436867 439890 439895 438899
      434909 429921 428926 428928 425930 422931 420934 412961
      408977 407982 406988 410994 412993 415990 419984 426969
      431956 433952 435950 436952 442957 446963 449964 450968
      450972 452981 455988 455993 456996 460001 463005 465007
      468009 470007 474999 477989 479979 479969 479959 474954
      485944 489942 493942 496942 499939 502931 504926 504921
      503912 500903 499899 498892 500888 500882 501873 500860
      500856 502853 506844 509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391065 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 337938 330934 325934 323937
      319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 463623 464628 466631 468634 467638 462646 460652 457659
      453666 443679 429704 425711 419716 415721 407726 398735
      391740 384744 370750 362751 356750 351746 346739 344732
      343726 343721 346714 350708 355703 357701 360696 363691
      369686 374682 380676 384670 388663 392659 400654 405651
      411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532193 531187 526179 520173 516170 511168 493163
      486157 482155 479156 470156 467159 467166 473172 477182
      479185 481188 484187 487188 490187 489190 492193 497191
      503189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205 532197
 0.25 519274 520264 519252 517243 514234 511226 507219 498205
      494199 486195 473204 468207 462209 449214 442216 439217
      436219 434222 432227 432233 431236 424236 420235 416236
      414240 415244 414251 413256 412263 415272 418278 422281
      428283 436285 445289 453292 457293 461296 476299 483300
      490299 502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 518261 517252 515243 512234 505220 501214 495208
      489204 485203 482204 470210 445221 441219 441223 444225
      449230 444235 439239 434244 430245 427243 425242 422243
      422251 425259 429265 432267 436267 443267 450266 455263
      459262 463263 470265 475271 483285 489290 496290 502290
      505289 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 457642 456638 454636 448634 444635 440637 434641 421649
      416653 410658 400668 391679 382689 372699 369705 366712
      364715 361717 356722 353728 355735 360738 364738 369736
      396726 402722 408718 419708 434684 451660 455651 457642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515263 515255 514249 512242 508232 503223 500218
      494215 486209 481208 477211 477215 481220 486221 489226
      494238 493241 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229 470230
      469235 469243 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 496283
      501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 427661 424663 417669 410673 405680 400686 393691
      390698 387702 384705 377708 372710 370713 370717 371721
      376721 381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703
      404702 409700 416696 420690 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 506276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE INA MOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THIS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN O INTERACT WITH A WEAK
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST SON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN O MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY S
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BORDER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EATS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS INA  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 484622 480630 477641 473651 469661 464670 453686
      445701 440709 434717 429724 423730 415738 407743 379765
      371771 367773 363774 352775 342773 330769 331771 329777
      326786 322795 320800 316802 309808 302813 292814 289814
      286810 278806 273799 269796 263797 254802 251805 250809
      252814 255817 258825 258828 255832 251831 245831 237829
      234827 232823 231819 231813 231806 232801 234792 241777
      244773 248770 255766 263761 269760 273762 277765 276768
      276772 273776 276780 276784 274786 277788 280786 287780
      295775 303768 312762 320759 319755 316755 313754 309754
      304753 297750 297745 298741 303733 307726 310722 314720
      318716 319711 321708 326705 338694 341690 345685 344679
      346676 380654 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538194 537184 535174 530166 526161 522159 520156
      505148 499144 493139 488134 481130 477129 475130 466129
      459128 454129 450131 449134 445133 446138 447142 444144
      436146 434148 434154 436163 438171 438178 435182 431187
      431198 434206 432210 428213 424217 419224 417227 414228
      407232 397243 395245 393250 391253 390260 383277 383281
      386284 388283 393284 396287 397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507822 503816 498810 493806 482796 474797 470793
      466791 465788 464785 460784 456784 453781 452779 449781
      448790 446797 440805 439809 435811 430814 426820 425824
      428824 432824 434821 442820 449822 453824 453830 449840
      445844 442851 438860 436864 436867 439890 439895 438899
      434909 429921 428926 428928 425930 422931 420934 412961
      408977 407982 406988 410994 412993 415990 419984 426969
      431956 433952 435950 436952 442957 446963 449964 450968
      450972 452981 455988 455993 456996 460001 463005 465007
      468009 470007 474999 477989 479979 479969 479959 474954
      485944 489942 493942 496942 499939 502931 504926 504921
      503912 500903 499899 498892 500888 500882 501873 500860
      500856 502853 506844 509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391065 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 337938 330934 325934 323937
      319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 463623 464628 466631 468634 467638 462646 460652 457659
      453666 443679 429704 425711 419716 415721 407726 398735
      391740 384744 370750 362751 356750 351746 346739 344732
      343726 343721 346714 350708 355703 357701 360696 363691
      369686 374682 380676 384670 388663 392659 400654 405651
      411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532193 531187 526179 520173 516170 511168 493163
      486157 482155 479156 470156 467159 467166 473172 477182
      479185 481188 484187 487188 490187 489190 492193 497191
      503189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205 532197
 0.25 519274 520264 519252 517243 514234 511226 507219 498205
      494199 486195 473204 468207 462209 449214 442216 439217
      436219 434222 432227 432233 431236 424236 420235 416236
      414240 415244 414251 413256 412263 415272 418278 422281
      428283 436285 445289 453292 457293 461296 476299 483300
      490299 502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 518261 517252 515243 512234 505220 501214 495208
      489204 485203 482204 470210 445221 441219 441223 444225
      449230 444235 439239 434244 430245 427243 425242 422243
      422251 425259 429265 432267 436267 443267 450266 455263
      459262 463263 470265 475271 483285 489290 496290 502290
      505289 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 457642 456638 454636 448634 444635 440637 434641 421649
      416653 410658 400668 391679 382689 372699 369705 366712
      364715 361717 356722 353728 355735 360738 364738 369736
      396726 402722 408718 419708 434684 451660 455651 457642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515263 515255 514249 512242 508232 503223 500218
      494215 486209 481208 477211 477215 481220 486221 489226
      494238 493241 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229 470230
      469235 469243 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 496283
      501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 427661 424663 417669 410673 405680 400686 393691
      390698 387702 384705 377708 372710 370713 370717 371721
      376721 381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703
      404702 409700 416696 420690 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 506276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHEAST...

AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE ALL CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEST WITH THIS
STORM OVER THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS...COMING CLOSER IN LINE TO THE
MORE CONSISTENTLY WEST UKMET. THE NAM/GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE
FURTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEAN IS
CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE STRONG TREND
SEEN...WOULD APPEAR THE NAM/GEM ARE LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. FAVORED A
SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS...21Z SREF
AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THIS BLEND RESULTED IN
AN INCREASE INA MOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO
COASTAL MAINE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND. FOR NOW THE
03Z SREF MEAN AND 0Z UKMET ARE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THIS BRINGING HIGHER QPF FURTHER INLAND. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS THESE SOLUTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS A FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB ARE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
THE ARW. THIS DOES RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THEY SEEM TO REPRESENT LESS
LIKELY SOLUTIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE A NAM CORE AND THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE PLAYING A
FACTOR IN THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER FRIDAY. THERE IT WILL BEGIN O INTERACT WITH A WEAK
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST SON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING WEST COAST RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A COMPLEX PATTERN AND
THUS NO SURPRISE GUIDANCE OFFERS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORE CONSOLIDATED WAVE AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SLOWER. NOT
NECESSARILY A CLEAR TREND...BUT A LOOK AT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RUNS SUGGEST IF ANYTHING THERE MAY BE A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER SYSTEM. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE
ENERGY WITHIN THE WAVE AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLOWER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE LESS QPF OVER FL ON DAY 3.
DECIDED THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS OFFERED THE BEST
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOPEFULLY TODAY`S SET OF MODEL RUNS CAN
CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION GIVEN THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE
FEATURES ARE NOW OVER LAND.

...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
SHOULD BEGIN O MOVE ASHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WILL END UP KEEPING QPF TOTALS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. ALSO
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY S
THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE WITH DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT A SHORT SHOT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN. IN GENERAL A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF...0Z GFS AND OUR IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE
WAS USED FOR QPF. THIS SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE BEST CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BORDER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...AS SOME
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.

THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EATS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE RESULTS INA  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN
GENERAL AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION
FOR THE TIME BEING. THUS THE WPC QPF TRIED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS
OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 487614 484622 480630 477641 473651 469661 464670 453686
      445701 440709 434717 429724 423730 415738 407743 379765
      371771 367773 363774 352775 342773 330769 331771 329777
      326786 322795 320800 316802 309808 302813 292814 289814
      286810 278806 273799 269796 263797 254802 251805 250809
      252814 255817 258825 258828 255832 251831 245831 237829
      234827 232823 231819 231813 231806 232801 234792 241777
      244773 248770 255766 263761 269760 273762 277765 276768
      276772 273776 276780 276784 274786 277788 280786 287780
      295775 303768 312762 320759 319755 316755 313754 309754
      304753 297750 297745 298741 303733 307726 310722 314720
      318716 319711 321708 326705 338694 341690 345685 344679
      346676 380654 393645
 0.01 460328 464327 467326 471324 475322 478320 481317 484315
      487312 491311 494309 497307 501305 504302 506300 508300
      524262 523259 523258 523256 522253 522252 522250 522248
      522245 522243 524241 524240 524238 525235 525233 527231
      527228 528226 528223 529221 531221 532223 534223
      541203 538194 537184 535174 530166 526161 522159 520156
      505148 499144 493139 488134 481130 477129 475130 466129
      459128 454129 450131 449134 445133 446138 447142 444144
      436146 434148 434154 436163 438171 438178 435182 431187
      431198 434206 432210 428213 424217 419224 417227 414228
      407232 397243 395245 393250 391253 390260 383277 383281
      386284 388283 393284 396287 397292 394303
 0.01 509831 507822 503816 498810 493806 482796 474797 470793
      466791 465788 464785 460784 456784 453781 452779 449781
      448790 446797 440805 439809 435811 430814 426820 425824
      428824 432824 434821 442820 449822 453824 453830 449840
      445844 442851 438860 436864 436867 439890 439895 438899
      434909 429921 428926 428928 425930 422931 420934 412961
      408977 407982 406988 410994 412993 415990 419984 426969
      431956 433952 435950 436952 442957 446963 449964 450968
      450972 452981 455988 455993 456996 460001 463005 465007
      468009 470007 474999 477989 479979 479969 479959 474954
      485944 489942 493942 496942 499939 502931 504926 504921
      503912 500903 499899 498892 500888 500882 501873 500860
      500856 502853 506844 509831
 0.01 471703 471701 470700 469699 468698 467697 466697 465699
      464700 464703 465705 466706 467706 469705 471704 471703
 0.01 449748 448743 443744 439747 436748 435754 434761 434766
      437770 438770 441765 443760 444756 447752 449748
 0.01 450117 451109 449102 448098 446099 445104 442105 439105
      438107 438110 437117 434123 433128 437126 442123 446123
      448121 450117
 0.01 436785 436782 436780 436777 435775 433773 432771 431771
      430771 428771 428772 428774 428776 429779 429781 431781
      432783 433783 434783 436785 436785
 0.01 414064 414061 412060 407058 403056 398055 394058 391061
      391065 389068 390073 396067 402058 406062 407063 405065
      402065 401069 397073 399076 403074 408075 412072 412068
      410066 414064
 0.01 380972 380968 379965 379961 377958 375952 372947 368947
      366949 366954 364961 364967 365972 366976 367978 371981
      375981 377979 379974 380972
 0.01 361961 361949 354945 346941 337938 330934 325934 323937
      319943 323952 328958 336963 346963 355963 361961
 0.25 463623 464628 466631 468634 467638 462646 460652 457659
      453666 443679 429704 425711 419716 415721 407726 398735
      391740 384744 370750 362751 356750 351746 346739 344732
      343726 343721 346714 350708 355703 357701 360696 363691
      369686 374682 380676 384670 388663 392659 400654 405651
      411646 421637
 0.25 532197 532193 531187 526179 520173 516170 511168 493163
      486157 482155 479156 470156 467159 467166 473172 477182
      479185 481188 484187 487188 490187 489190 492193 497191
      503189 508190 511193 517200 523206 527207 530205 532197
 0.25 519274 520264 519252 517243 514234 511226 507219 498205
      494199 486195 473204 468207 462209 449214 442216 439217
      436219 434222 432227 432233 431236 424236 420235 416236
      414240 415244 414251 413256 412263 415272 418278 422281
      428283 436285 445289 453292 457293 461296 476299 483300
      490299 502294 508291 514285 517280 519274
 0.50 518270 518261 517252 515243 512234 505220 501214 495208
      489204 485203 482204 470210 445221 441219 441223 444225
      449230 444235 439239 434244 430245 427243 425242 422243
      422251 425259 429265 432267 436267 443267 450266 455263
      459262 463263 470265 475271 483285 489290 496290 502290
      505289 509286 514279 518270
 0.50 526198 526193 525190 524187 522185 521183 518182 515182
      515186 517189 518191 520194 521197 524199 526198
 0.50 504176 503176 502173 500173 499174 498174 498176 500176
      502177 503176 504176
 0.50 457642 456638 454636 448634 444635 440637 434641 421649
      416653 410658 400668 391679 382689 372699 369705 366712
      364715 361717 356722 353728 355735 360738 364738 369736
      396726 402722 408718 419708 434684 451660 455651 457642
 0.50 456229 454227 453228 452228 453228 454229 456229
 1.00 513271 515263 515255 514249 512242 508232 503223 500218
      494215 486209 481208 477211 477215 481220 486221 489226
      494238 493241 489239 482239 479233 477229 472229 470230
      469235 469243 472247 477250 480254 485265 490276 496283
      501286 505284 509277 513271
 1.00 464224 465221 466219 464218 463217 461218 459219 458219
      458222 458223 460224 462225 464224 464224
 1.00 430661 427661 424663 417669 410673 405680 400686 393691
      390698 387702 384705 377708 372710 370713 370717 371721
      376721 381719 388715 392713 394710 395705 397703 399703
      404702 409700 416696 420690 426673 429666 430661
 1.50 510257 511252 511248 510241 507234 503230 500224 497219
      493220 493222 493230 496236 499240 502246 504252 505256
      508257 510257
 1.50 505281 506276 505271 503262 500255 495249 490243 487244
      485248 486257 488265 492272 496279 499282 502284 505281
 1.50 487215 486212 484211 482210 481210 480211 479213 480215
      481216 482217 483217 485217 485216 487216 487215
 1.50 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474232
      473233 472234 471236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245
      478244 479243
 2.00 503281 503273 502267 500264 498259 496255 494250 491247
      488249 488255 489260 491266 493270 495274 498278 501280
      503281
 2.00 507243 507240 506240 506242 507244 507243
 2.00 497226 496223 494225 496227 497226
 2.00 479238 477235 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237 475240
      476241 478241 479239 479238

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 479617 484617 488621 496629 506650 511660 515671 517674
      518679 520681 525693 531720 532734 533746 534755 533760
      533765 531775 527786 524797 522805 519811 516816 513820
      508830 502837 494843 486847 487852 490856 501870 512885
      520897 523901 526904 530910 544928 547930 550935 557942
      561946 562951 563965 563974 564980 564000 564010 564020
      563037 562051 561056 560062 557073 553074 546069 539065
      537065 535067 531070 528074 526077 525082 528094 530100
      530104 532106 539116 542120 542124 537150 534161 530173
      528176 529179 532184 535190 539199 537204 534205 527206
      520205 512199 510196 507195 502194 500190 498183 496179
      492174 487180 480174 470173 466171 465178 464181 461184
      454185 450183 449176 448173 448170 449167 448165 445161
      441158 437156 435148 437141 443144 446144 448142 448136
      450128 445128 442128 442126 439120 435117 430118 427114
      424110 426106 429104 430101 429099 427094 430093 433092
      438093 445094 451094 454095 456100 456096 454092 452088
      449083 446080 443076 442074 442071 445065 442060 440054
      441048 439041 441035 443031 452027 458022 463020 465016
      456011 447015 444015 441017 436017 435024 430028 428025
      428020 429999 429983 429978 433975 436975 438973 444973
      447973 448971 451968 452964 455951 452938 450932 452928
      457919 453893 452881 455872 456868 456861 451865 443871
      439873 434874 430874 426872 424870 424862 424857 427852
      432849 435847 435841 432835 428836 423836 418835 411828
      407828 405831 400839 398841 396837 397831 396828 395821
      397817 398808 400800 406785 414778 417775 421771 423745
      430740 435736 436734 434732 431733 427734 427729 431725
      436725 437719 437712 443708 446705 447701 441701 433703
      429702 428698 429693 430689 434682 437671 438668 436665
      435659 433657 432654 431648 435642
 0.01 435642 437641 439641 440638 442637 443637 445634 446633
      448633 450632 451629 453629 454628 456627 458627 459624
 0.01 511297 521264 523261 524251 518244 510232 507227 503220
      499211 496213 492212 487205 485204 482203 473207 464211
      460212 455212 435211 433215 428218 427223 430227 431232
      429237 424240 417239 413240 404245 396250 395252 396255
      394261 391266 388273 387277 389279 392279 400277 412271
      420265 424263 427261 436255 440249 444245 450233 454231
      456230 460231 464234 464241 469246 470248 471254 471261
      468268 462276 461283 464289 472299 476304 481307 485311
      491313 499312 505308 510300
 0.01 517153 517144 516139 513129 511125 507125 503125 498126
      496128 492125 487119 483110 481108 479108 476109 472107
      470102 468100 467095 466087 464085 462084 461089 462095
      464101 468107 470120 472124 476125 487128 493132 506145
      512151 515154 517153
 0.01 498245 496234 493228 491225 483227 480231 478230 474220
      468225 471233 474239 476242 479238 482242 480244 480248
      482249 488244 492242 495246 498245
 0.01 476089 476086 475084 474084 473082 471083 471086 471088
      472090 474090 476089
 0.01 469070 470068 469067 468068 469070 469070
 0.01 455056 454055 453054 451054 449056 447056 446058 447060
      449063 450065 452063 452061 452059 452058 454058 455056
 0.01 412066 412064 412063 410063 409063 407065 405065 403065
      405067 405068 406070 408072 408073 408072 410071 410070
      410068 412066 412066
 0.01 362729 362726 359723 354721 350721 348718 346716 346712
      341704 335705 332706 330709 328710 326713 321717 317721
      312721 299723 295726 292729 283739 274745 267751 258758
      241773 235781 230790 226801 223813 222818 222824 226828
      227835 226842 227849 229855 234858 238860 240862 240866
      241870 248869 263868 271861 276852 278847 281844 292836
      295832 298830 300832 307831 310828 320823 328815 337808
      341805 343801 345795 345787 347771 349766 351760 354756
      356750 359741 362729
 0.01 352947 352939 350936 343930 338927 334924 326919 321917
      317917 312921 311926 312933 315937 323941 328945 332946
      341950 346952 350950 352947
 0.01 306920 303912 297907 291907 288904 285901 282899 276899
      273900 271905 272908 275917 280925 286929 297929 305924
      306920
 0.25 547971 546966 543965 538966 534968 531968 528960 523957
      517959 508970 505979 503982 504987 507994 507001 510011
      513017 516021 520021 524017 527008 529997 537990 545976
      547971
 0.25 477714 476712 476710 475707 474706 473706 471707 471708
      470710 469711 468713 468714 468717 468719 469721 469722
      471722 473721 473720 474719 475717 476717 477714
 0.25 470158 472156 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466145
      465144 463143 462144 461146 461148 461149 460150 459153
      460155 461156 462156 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158
      470158
 0.25 446109 445108 444107 442106 440106 439107 439108 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445109 446109
 0.25 349753 350750 350746 347742 341737 335734 328731 320730
      314735 304744 291757 286762 281766 267776 256785 244795
      238808 235817 235820 237823 239823 248823 254826 257828
      262827 266821 277813 285808 292810 295812 298812 306812
      314812 322810 328805 332799 335789 336780 338772 341766
      346758 349753
 0.50 466154 466152 465151 464151 463154 465155 466154
 0.50 339755 338749 337747 334745 328742 321743 317744 310750
      295762 284775 281780 277784 272789 271794 273800 274803
      280804 287803 292803 300806 305807 311805 318802 323798
      325794 329786 336767 339755
 1.00 323775 321771 317771 307774 299779 293784 287790 285794
      288796 299795 306797 313798 315795 318787 322778 323775

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040753
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

...VALID 12Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 05 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S ASJ 35 ENE 9W7 50 E FFA 30 ESE HSE 65 SE SUT 30 SSW SUT
25 S ASJ.


...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
RATES MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS...BUT THOSE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY COME DOWN GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES
WHICH FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS TRIMMED
BACK A BIT...WITH LESS EXTENSION INLAND...NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE
OUTER BANKS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WAS PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE COAST EARLY
TODAY...LIKELY KEEPING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. WPC
FAVORED THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND GEM REGIONAL FOR QPF DETAILS...AND
BOTH INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...WITH OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXTENDING INLAND AS A FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO FORM IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET. ADDITIONAL AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST IN THE RISK
AREA...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
THOSE AMOUNTS OVER A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.


...NORTHERN FLORIDA...

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP UNUSUALLY
MOIST FEBRUARY AIR OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TODAY. INFLOW SPEEDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES ARE RUNNING AT RECORD LEVELS FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. INSTABILITY HAD WANED AS OF EARLY MORNING...BUT THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS LATER TODAY MAY TAP INTO 250-750
J/KG CAPE PER NAM FORECASTS...SUPPORTING STRONG RAIN RATES IN THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM/HUMID ENVIRONMENT. WITH LINE SEGMENTS TRAINING
AND SHOWING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED 2.5 OR 3.0 INCHES LOCALLY. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...FLOW BEGINS TO VEER...AND CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE MORE OUTFLOW...PUSHING EASTWARD MORE RAPIDLY. A SLIGHT
RISK WAS CONSIDERED HERE GIVEN THE PW ANOMALIES AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN THAT WAS OBSERVED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SO HIGH OVER
FLORIDA...HOWEVER...THAT THE ODDS OF EXCEEDANCE AND OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 040742
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

VALID 12Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016


DAYS 1 TO 2...

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

IN GENERAL...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  A SHARPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
OFFSHORE. IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A BROAD SHIELD OF QPF WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST.  RAIN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM EASTERN
VIRGINIA INTO NEW JERSEY WHERE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OR BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
OF THE SNOW WILL END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN DOWNEAST
MAINE.  THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON WITH A LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE QPF AND HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...THERE IS STILL ONLY AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ENSEMBLE SUITE.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER THE WEST COAST AND HEAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WEST
BEFORE REACHING THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE US CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIVING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE
SNOWS ACROSS THE CASCADES/BITTERROOTS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MONTANA/EASTERN IDAHO AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...AS WELL AS SOME
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THERE ARE ONLY MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES
OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE BITTERROOTS SEPARATING IDAHO
AND MONTANA.

ON DAY 2/FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW FOR THE
OLYMPICS/CASCADES/BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE BITTERROOTS.  THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THERE
IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES WITH
SOME AREAS PICKING UP MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW.

ON DAY 3/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH CONTINUES
DIGGING SOUTH AND EASTWARD AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY TO
FALL ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING...WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 4
TO 8 INCH RANGE.  MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/1200 UTC THRU FEB 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA...

AS OF 06Z CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD FINALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY...BUT HAD EARLIER PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN AMIDST
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...AND IN SOME CASES RECORD...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
STRENGTHENS FURTHER OVER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY UNDER THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREM SHORTWAVE. WITH MERIDIONAL WIND FIELDS ONLY
SLOWLY SWINGING AROUND AND VEERING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS/EFFECTIVE FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...UNTIL
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALONG
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...LEADING TO A BROAD INCREASE TO BOTH CONVECTIVE AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM GEORGIA UP TO VIRGINIA...WITH THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEING FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THE
NEARBY DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE / SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE TWO LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE IN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE OTHER IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CERTAINLY THE NAM WAS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER IN FOCUSING NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...HENCE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. A FEW HI-RES
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...HAVE DONE JUST THE
OPPOSITE...AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE WRF-ARW IS TYPICALLY
VERY SKILLFUL...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LARGE
SCALE...WPC LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...SUPPORTED
ALSO BY THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL. THE MANUAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GEM AND THE ECMWF...BUT THE 00Z GFS CAME IN
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS...

SATELLITE LOOPS REVEALED A LARGE AMOUNT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PUSH TOO FAR OFFSHORE
BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
FORM THURSDAY EVENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AS A 175 KNOT ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET STRENGTHENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES. THE RESULTING BACKING OF FLOW MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE AS THE LOW / WAVE BEGINS TO MATURE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
FOREAST HAS TRENDED WETTER FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD. THE I-95
CORRIDOR IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENING...AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS
NOT BEEN WETTER...BUT RATHER SHARPER...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN ZERO PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS RAMPING UP QUICKLY TOWARD A
HALF INCH. WPC STARTED WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF /
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE / PREVIOUS WPC. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TOWARD THE GEM REGIONAL. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WETTER...INCREASING
THE ODDS OF AT LEAST A TENTH INCH OF LIQUID ALONG I-95 FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK. GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRENGTH
OF UPSTREAM FEATURES...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...AND WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SEE THE HEAVY SNOW
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462315
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522252 520242 518236 515231 512225 507219 499209
      496204 489202 482201 478202 457210 455214 453213 446214
      433214 429219 428222 430226 434228 436231 436235 435237
      434242 437248 449250 455250 462253 468256 468260 466262
      457270 452272 448276 443279 438282 430289 421298 417304
      415309 416311
 0.01 536209 537203 537199 535192 532186 530178 527171 523165
      518159 513155 494139 487126 480120 474122 468121 461121
      459128 452129 448131 446129 447127 453124 458121 458117
      460115 464115 471114 475109 482100 484095 482092 479091
      476091 473093 467092 463096 460099 457096 430089 426086
      424087 425090 426096 428099 427101 416106 412110 411106
      411101 412090 414084 416080 418079 421077 425077 433078
      436078 440077 444078 446080 451085 453085 453080 451075
      447070 439068 434070 432070 431068 435066 437062 434054
      429042 428037 430035 432028 432017 430008 429004 429998
      428994 427990 424987 419987 415993 413003 413011 412016
      411021 402028 383040 385043 390043 395039 403040 408045
      409048 409052 401053 397055 392061 387063 384068 382070
      379070 373066 369067 371071 375085 378093 377098 381099
      386095 394096 396091 400090 404091 405102 404106 402108
      398108 394110 390112 383115 380114 378116 379121 380124
      383125 385132 391132 394133 398134 401137 404137 412136
      416137 418140 417144 417147 419150 423144 427138 431133
      436132 441130 444129 442132 441137 437138 434145 434157
      438163 440165 441168 442176 443182 441183 441186 440188
      444190 450195 453195 457190 462186 464180 464177 462174
      459169 461166 464168 468173 476175 484178 490182 495187
      503195 508201 511207 516211 519212 521215 525219 528218
      533213 536209
 0.01 513126 512121 510118 504110 501101 498090 500085 500078
      501062 497041 494028 491019 488013 488007 486997 482987
      479984 475983 466983 458986 450990 446993 444996 441000
      441002 444005 449005 453003 458003 463006 466009 465012
      462013 458013 451017 448019 446024 449032 452034 455035
      458037 461039 460042 455047 456052 459055 463057 466058
      474059 478060 480064 484075 485078 486085 487090 487098
      489108 491114 494117 500118 505125 508128 511129 513126
 0.01 475646 474642 472640 468636 464634 459633 456632 452632
      448630 440632 434635 429637 423640 416643 411647 403655
      396664 367704 352721 336737 318752 307760 303764 298767
      280780 262794 254801 245808 240811 234815 231820 229825
      226838 226848 226855 227861 228864 229866 231865 236862
      244855 249852 252851 254854 256860 257864 258868 263872
      268874 279876 294875 299872 303869 311860 315857 320854
      325852 329848 339838 342834 345832 348833 352831 355835
      358832 360827 363823 365820 368820 374819 379815 384811
      387808 395800 401796 409794 413794 415796 417806 418812
      419813 421811 426802 429801 430798 430793 431790 431785
      429779 425777 423779 420778 415778 408780 406782 403783
      398788 394792 388795 369811 361816 355819 355815 357813
      362803 369794 385774 416741 432723 436715 438709 446700
      459680 462676 465670 468666 471658 474652 475646
 0.01 493848 492842 490836 483829 479827 474827 469826 465823
      461819 458817 454813 452806 448795 445793 442793 441796
      439801 436804 433809 431815 428819 427824 426831 426836
      430838 434835 446837 442846 439851 437853 435852 425850
      420853 418857 414860 414865 416868 421872 423877 426881
      433889 443906 442912 440916 438918 438923 440929 441934
      442941 442950 442954 443957 445962 448964 452962 455956
      459945 461932 459927 460920 464915 466909 470910 474913
      478915 480915 482912 480902 479897 481894 482888 488879
      488864 490861 492856 493848
 0.01 471703 470698 466697 456699 453701 448704 442710 440714
      442718 444720 444722 442727 439730 438734 435744 432754
      426755 423760 424765 428772 432776 434780 436779 438775
      440764 444755 448746 451738 453727 454722 457719 465713
      469704 471703
 0.01 457837 457835 457832 455831 455830 453828 451826 450828
      452830 452831 452833 452835 452838 453840 454842 456840
      457837
 0.01 448048 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 448048
 0.01 428187 429185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 426189
      428187 428187
 0.01 429168 429166 428165 427168 429168 429168
 0.01 409122 408119 406119 404118 402118 401118 399118 397118
      395117 394117 392119 390119 388120 390123 391123 393123
      395123 397124 398124 400124 402125 404125 405125 407124
      407123 409122
 0.25 516283 519268 519261 517254 514246 509237 504229 498219
      494211 484208 480208 477210 472212 468212 452218 452222
      455224 461227 465226 471221 478218 486221 490225 493230
      500248 497247 493243 489241 485243 483247 483254 484260
      483263 478274 473282 467289 460292 451291 443294 436299
      431304 434306 437304 445302 453300 462300 470301 482305
      497305 504304 508301
 0.25 481244 480238 478232 474231 473232 471234 467233 464232
      462233 457234 451236 449237 451239 458241 464242 470241
      475242 479245 481244
 0.25 484136 484135 482133 481132 479131 478131 476131 474131
      473131 471133 471135 472138 473138 474139 475139 476139
      477139 479138 480138 481137 482137 484136 484136
 0.25 478164 478160 475156 472152 469148 468145 463143 459145
      457147 458153 461156 463159 466162 471165 474163 478165
      478164
 0.25 461181 462178 461176 459176 458177 457177 456179 455179
      454181 454184 455184 456184 457184 459183 459182 460181
      461181
 0.25 453656 452650 450647 445643 441643 436644 429646 422649
      416653 407663 397674 388686 372708 362719 351730 333750
      323759 312769 307775 303781 295788 285798 277811 273818
      270823 263833 262837 262841 264849 267855 269859 273861
      280861 287859 293857 299853 309845 320834 339814 359794
      367785 376774 385764 395752 403739 411728 419717 423710
      426706 427702 433691 441678 448667 451662 453656
 0.25 451222 450221 448221 447220 445221 444223 446224 448224
      449224 450223 451222
 0.25 445111 444108 442106 440106 439107 437107 435108 434109
      433111 432114 433115 434116 436116 438115 440115 441115
      442115 443115 445113 445111
 0.25 251832 251828 245828 240829 236831 235835 233838 233844
      234848 235851 238851 241848 243845 246841 248838 250834
      251832
 0.25 452173 451172 451173 451174 452173
 0.50 512287 512279 514269 516262 514256 512249 508245 506245
      505250 506258 503257 499253 495249 490247 488249 487254
      487262 487272 485282 483292 485298 491300 496300 502300
      506298 510294 512287
 0.50 483214 482212 481212 479212 478213 479214 480215 482216
      483214
 0.50 479238 478236 477234 476233 474234 473237 474237 475239
      477240 479238
 0.50 464221 464219 463217 461217 459217 457218 456219 456221
      457222 458224 460225 462225 463223 464222 464221
 0.50 442662 443656 441652 435652 427653 420656 411664 401674
      397679 393685 385697 378706 370716 349735 333754 325764
      315773 311778 307783 299792 291801 283812 277823 272834
      270841 271846 275853 277855 281855 287853 292851 303843
      312835 322825 340808 349800 359790 367780 375771 391749
      405728 413717 420704 432679 438670 442662
 1.00 508288 509283 508278 507272 504265 501259 497255 492252
      491258 491267 492274 495280 498287 500289 503290 508288
 1.00 426669 422666 417667 408674 404678 401681 393692 380710
      373718 365726 356733 348741 340751 334758 328767 320776
      313785 307793 295811 288820 284830 281835 281840 283846
      287847 290846 299840 307833 340804 369770 381751 394734
      400724 407713 413702 417693 423680 425674 426669
 1.50 505284 506279 505275 504272 503269 502267 500264 497261
      496259 494259 494262 494267 495270 495273 497277 498279
      499282 502285 505284
 1.50 414682 413678 410678 406682 399691 388707 381715 373722
      358736 351742 343750 332765 326773 319782 308798 302806
      299817 290835 288840 290842 293841 301835 316822 322815
      326812 330808 336802 339796 338793 367765 378748 390732
      402713 407705 411695 414682
 2.00 408691 407687 404689 400695 393706 384717 375726 354741
      349746 345751 337762 323782 320787 322790 326788 336781
      346773 353771 358767 367757 374745 382736 391725 398714
      404703 407696 408691
 3.00 364749 364744 361743 354746 350749 346754 344759 341765
      340768 344769 349765 354762 357758 360754 364749
 4.00 353757 353755 352755 351756 350758 352759 353757 353757

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040123
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CUT BACK QUITE A BIT OF THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK
AREA...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH (NORTH OF NC)...BASED ON THE
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/MESOANALYSIS TRENDS AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE. FARTHER NORTH (NORTH OF
NC)... THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES ARE RUNNING OUT OF REAL ESTATE AS
THEY HEAD TOWARD THE COAST...AND EVEN IN THESE AREAS...THE RATES
ARE WELL BELOW THE 1/3/6 HOURLY FFG. FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA...MIXED LAYER CAPE TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND AS HAS THE 1 AND 3 HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES. BECAUSE OF THIS...MPD #30 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS OF 0030Z.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW SLIGHT RISK REGION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY CONTINUES...AS THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL INFLOW COULD STILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN AREAS
WITH CELL TRAINING.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...



1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032150
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTH FLORIDA---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN 2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  THIS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTH FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THE ENTIRE
PRECIP AREA..WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW
AND NSSL WRF.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN NY AND THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ALSO VERY ANOMALOUS...3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE TOTALS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DEPICTED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN PERIOD...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND EARLY DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
EMANATING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL BE SEVERED---WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP EVENT FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.  STILL...THE
FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  ID...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC
RANGE  WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE
.50-1"+ RANGE.


DAYS 2/3...


...EAST COAST...

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL OCCUR ON DAY
1...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT OFF
THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ON FRIDAY...A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
PROLONG PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
CAROLINA...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER BANKS REGION.   HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING...PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.40
INCHES...WHICH IS THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WITH THE FORCING OF THE FRONT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT.  IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT
RISK.  IN ADDITION...MOST OF THIS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WILMINGTON REGION...THUS
DECIDED TO HAVE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENCOMPASS THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  BY FRIDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY PUSH OFF SHORE EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE COD REGION AND SOUTH FLORIDA. WPC USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF
ECMWF/GFS AND IN HOUSE BIASED CORRECTED...WITH MORE WEIGHT PUT ON
THE ECMWF SINCE TIMING MATCHED UP WELL.


...WEST COAST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX MOVING INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND.  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
CANADIAN CASCADES.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AND MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES.  THIS WILL
SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD TOWARD COASTAL WASHINGTON AND
OREGON...ALONG WITH THE CASCADES.  BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
MORNING.  BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...BUT EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF
MONTANA/WYOMING.

BY THE TIME THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES SOUTH TOWARD
WASHINGTON/OREGON...THE CONTENT BREAKS OFF FROM ITS SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN.  THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT.  QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50-1.0"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1"...CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY FOR THE
CASCADES.  WPC USED MOSTLY GFS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ECMWF.
NONETHELESS...ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE DRY THAN THE GFS SO USED IT
SPARINGLY.


...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
EVENING.  ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH RESULTS IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
STAYING IN CANADA. SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.  WPC USED A BLEND OF 12Z
NAM/SREF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/FANNING

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 483615 487616 488619 491623 498634 501640 504646 510663
      515679 521696 523702 523707 522710 521723 517755 514762
      509768 503778 500784 498791 492803 478805 475803 473798
      470793 468790 469785 471769 470759 469750 467746 466741
      465735 463732 457730 453730 452733 450739 450746 446759
      444761 441763 438768 437772 435773 434767 434762 432759
      429753 426753 427750 432745 435741 442740 447739 448736
      448733 446730 444729 440729 436731 430732 418736 414739
      411743 403751 396760 379780 365799 351815 291883 283891
      276900 268909 262911 257914 251917 244919 241918 237914
      236908 236900 236894 238890 239886 239882 238875 236868
      237862 241849 245837 247831 251827 261819 267812 276805
      292791 310774 323758 338739 345731 351720 366700 373689
      379678 384667 390658 399643
 0.01 534212 535198 533184 531177 529172 522162 514154 507148
      498143 494140 492135 486128 478124 472122 468120 463120
      461114 469115 475109 479105 483103 486099 486095 484095
      478094 475091 469090 466090 468100 463100 460100 458102
      450094 442094 436095 428089 424089 425092 427098 422100
      417109 416111 412110 411103 411099 410096 407093 405098
      405105 404108 401108 398106 396109 392112 383115 379115
      379119 381124 386125 389120 394118 400119 404121 414127
      419130 416134 410141 409142 408146 406149 403150 401148
      399148 399151 394162 395168 394172 389176 387180 386185
      387189 390192 395194 396198 394199 389199 385201 386205
      392214 393216 391219 387220 382222 378226 377232 380236
      383240 387243 393244 397244 407247 417249 427248 438250
      451252 460254 467257 471261 475270 479278 483287 491294
      497298 500301 504302 509299 511291 513287 515281 517275
      518268 519262 518253 517246 510225 507219 504213 498205
      497199 499194 503195 504197 508202 514211 517212 521213
      529216 534212
 0.01 506955 506944 503941 498941 497934 496927 494923 481919
      471920 462919 459918 457913 461905 464902 466902 467905
      469910 472912 475915 479915 482913 482909 479901 477898
      479895 482887 482881 481876 477874 476870 472865 470860
      469856 469849 467845 464843 460845 458848 455850 453845
      451841 450836 450823 448818 452816 452813 449809 448804
      445802 443798 438798 435805 431809 427812 426814 427827
      431835 432834 436832 441830 443832 446840 443842 441847
      438850 434851 427849 424847 423840 423834 419834 415835
      412840 411842 411848 409853 408858 408864 410866 412868
      416868 419871 422870 426872 430871 436867 445865 451861
      455860 458862 463870 464874 465877 463878 441901 435906
      431911 431921 435928 450959 454968 457976 460984 465991
      469994 471991 473986 476977 476970 474964 476953 477952
      478955 476958 477964 481967 489967 494965 498961 503958
      506955
 0.01 453085 453080 451075 448072 445070 440069 436071 434073
      438074 441072 444077 446080 449083 452086 453085
 0.01 430790 429784 427779 425777 420777 409779 406782 403783
      389794 376805 373810 370813 366820 368822 372820 375819
      379815 385809 392803 399798 402796 407796 409800 410808
      410812 413817 416818 419816 422806 425798 430790
 0.01 415069 415066 412062 407060 405058 402060 399060 396062
      391066 385065 387068 384072 378069 374068 372066 369066
      369068 373074 375082 375085 379085 382083 386086 387085
      386078 390082 393081 395085 397085 397081 401079 405075
      413076 414071 415069
 0.25 435632 448639 456643 459644 464643 472643 476645 479649
      484657 487665 488673 487677 484687 480690 475690 467687
      461685 454689 446695 441701 428714 422721 415727 408733
      403740 394753 384766 372781 351805 340817 329831 320843
      309856 297868 285879 279884 275891 272894 268893 260891
      256872 257860 257854 258850 261841 264832 269826 274821
      286810 298798 318772 339746 359718 368705 378689 397661
      404651 410640
 0.25 529202 528193 524185 520179 515174 509170 502168 497165
      488163 484158 477153 471148 467142 464140 460140 458141
      456145 454150 451152 443151 438148 434150 433155 435159
      438161 442166 446173 447177 445179 442181 440184 440188
      444191 446189 448192 450195 453195 457188 462184 464181
      464178 462174 458173 456170 457165 460164 464166 468172
      474173 478173 481175 488180 494182 501183 507185 512191
      520202 523204 526204 529202
 0.25 516264 516257 514250 509236 499213 495208 488205 482204
      476205 467210 461209 456213 451215 445215 441215 436219
      435222 436225 441229 442233 440239 443243 450245 461245
      467247 472250 481258 488268 495279 499284 504287 508286
      509281 513270 516264
 0.25 498253 496244 493236 489229 484224 476221 470224 468227
      470229 477228 480231 482234 489237 493244 497252 498253
 0.25 499677 499674 499672 499669 498667 498665 498664 496664
      495665 495668 496670 497671 498672 499675 499677 499677
 0.25 490142 490139 488136 486134 483133 481132 479132 476133
      474133 474138 477138 480137 482138 484138 487141 488142
      490142
 0.25 455228 454228 453227 452227 452229 454229 455228
 0.50 512258 512251 510245 506235 497216 495212 490209 485208
      479207 471210 468212 463212 455215 447218 443218 441220
      441222 444225 448226 452225 457226 461228 465227 471221
      475220 480220 485222 488224 493233 499242 504252 509259
      512258
 0.50 505276 505267 501260 496254 493247 489239 487238 484239
      481236 479233 476230 472231 468232 464230 459232 451234
      449235 446238 450241 454242 461242 469244 476248 482252
      487259 495272 500277 503278 505276
 0.50 494171 492169 491168 489168 488167 486166 484165 483166
      483168 484170 485171 485172 487173 489173 490173 490172
      492172 494171
 0.50 480165 478162 474159 472156 470150 468147 463145 459147
      459151 462155 464159 466162 469163 473164 478166 480165
 0.50 462663 460660 458658 452654 441643 434641 430639 427639
      421644 416648 406659 395672 387683 378696 369709 360723
      352733 343746 324771 316782 306794 296805 285815 276825
      271831 268839 267847 265854 264863 266873 268876 271877
      282875 288872 293868 303859 313846 331824 370778 379766
      389753 406729 412724 417718 427705 432699 437692 443687
      449683 453679 457674 461669 462663
 0.50 462181 461176 458177 456177 454175 453171 451169 449170
      449174 451177 452180 452183 455185 457184 460183 462181
 1.00 506242 505239 503236 502233 500230 499227 498224 496221
      493222 494227 495229 497231 499235 501238 502240 503242
      506242
 1.00 485217 486215 485213 484212 482211 481210 479210 477211
      475212 474214 473214 473216 474216 475216 477217 478217
      480217 482218 483218 485218 485217
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 468220 466217 465216 462216 459217 457217 454218 454220
      456221 458224 460225 462225 464224 466222 468220
 1.00 429668 428666 425666 420669 415674 408677 400679 395684
      388693 381702 373713 358732 351741 343752 337760 329771
      323782 316792 309801 304806 299809 291816 286821 284823
      285828 286834 284840 279850 279858 282864 288864 294861
      303852 310845 317835 324824 331815 340807 349798 357789
      363780 367773 371768 378759 386749 392739 398726 403715
      406708 410703 418693 423682 429668
 1.50 463221 462219 461218 459219 459220 460222 460223 461223
      462222 463221
 1.50 399700 397698 395699 391703 385704 381708 369723 356737
      351743 346752 335767 331775 327786 317801 308816 303824
      298832 288847 287852 288857 292858 297856 304850 309843
      314836 320827 324820 329811 331808 335806 344800 350793
      356786 361778 364768 374753 379745 383740 387737 390727
      390721 399700
 2.00 373736 370728 363733 353743 350749 347756 338768 335773
      335780 336785 335790 333793 328798 324802 318808 310819
      307825 303832 295843 292849 292854 296853 302849 307844
      315832 321819 328806 330804 334802 339797 349787 353782
      357775 360769 364762 372750 373747 372741 373736
 3.00 315826 314822 312824 309829 305833 302838 298842 296847
      298849 303844 306840 310836 313831 315826

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 483615 482626 477637 474646 469654 463663 457672 452679
      446686 439694 435705 429711 424720 415738 410746 405753
      390767 384772 378780 373788 370791 365795 358801 351805
      334816 327820 324823 320827 315834 308842 303848 296854
      290860 281866 266874 261876 258876 245875 241874 235874
      230874 228870 224860 221856 219850 219840 218835 222834
      226836 233826 238822 231820 230816 231813 236809 241805
      247800 254789 258785 262780 267775 269769 271762 275755
      281744 289732 292727 300725 304730 309724 318716 318712
      321709 326704 330699 336695 347685 356677 377659 396644
 0.01 460328 462328 463328 465328 467329 468329 470330 472331
      472330 474329 475330 477330 479331 480330 482330 484329
      486329 487330 488329 489328 491329 491328 493327 495328
      495327 497326 525256 521247 518236 516227
      510217 504212 500209 499203 499198 501199 508204 516210
      523216 529222 533231 544188 535183 531180 528173 524169
      520166 516163 513159 496144 489138 487126 480120 474121
      470125 467130 464134 458140 453143 450147 443147 440146
      436148 437153 439157 441164 442170 443177 445184 448188
      454189 458188 462186 463178 458169 457164 459160 461159
      465161 473166 478175 483187 484194 480199 471202 463203
      454209 450211 443210 426217 417222 408226 400230 394237
      393245 396250 400253 403260 397271 396277 397283 396293
      394303
 0.01 502096 500075 498065 498057 497053 495043 491035 487011
      485005 483002 481992 479974 477964 476961 477958 479955
      486955 492957 496957 498956 501946 498922 494899 490890
      489886 492883 496881 499877 504870 506867 506861 505849
      505844 503841 502839 498837 497832 496828 492825 484825
      478822 471815 475806 475802 473798 469789 467786 467781
      464773 461770 458771 452774 442788 438803 435808 433811
      433816 436823 438828 441829 443827 447826 450826 451832
      453838 452843 447846 442846 438847 435849 428852 424857
      421863 421872 428876 428881 430885 436890 443890 449887
      454891 458899 460910 454915 448919 441923 429935 420949
      417956 417966 413985 410993 406998 399011 389024 387027
      383029 375031 367033 364035 362039 363044 365047 370050
      371053 378056 380058 382056 386058 387061 383063 382065
      382068 380070 376071 374073 374077 379083 386086 390087
      395088 404086 410083 418079 423079 426077 433077 441075
      446080 449087 448092 446092 440089 433092 430087 425086
      427094 429099 429104 421104 405109 402110 398110 397115
      400118 409120 416125 419128 419133 420138 423138 425136
      426133 428128 430127 442123 450125 454125 456120 457116
      459114 460116 465117 468116 472114 476113 482107 483104
      484097 479092 468090 466092 464096 461099 457096 457091
      459088 459084 458079 456076 452075 447070 448068 445063
      443055 441050 438048 435046 433042 432038 433036 437038
      439043 441048 446053 449056 451059 457069 460072 461070
      468068 473074 472076 476077 480077 483080 485085 487091
      491094 493092 495092 499096 502096
 0.01 469701 468699 465699 462703 454708 446717 442727 439731
      438736 443747 445752 447749 450743 451738 454725 456720
      457717 460716 464713 466709 469701
 0.01 452020 451017 451013 451005 450001 450996 451992 450988
      448990 445991 441988 436979 433984 433992 434999 438002
      444012 442019 439024 445033 447034 445029 445022 449021
      452020
 0.01 439779 438772 438765 437755 436751 432756 426755 423761
      424765 428772 430776 434781 439779
 0.01 431790 431783 427777 423780 418780 415788 416795 417802
      421808 424806 424803 427803 429800 430797 430793 431790
 0.01 375066 373064 371063 370063 368061 366061 364063 366065
      368066 369066 371066 373066 375067 375066
 0.25 462623 462634 459644 456653 451662 435688 431696 427704
      420709 415717 407730 398744 389757 378770 368781 363787
      357792 345801 327809 314815 302825 296830 289834 269838
      262841 256845 243853 236856 227858 225854 225849 225844
      227840 231836 234833 239832 243831 247829 253826 265816
      270810 272806 268803 261802 256802 255799 261795 265789
      314750 324738 329732 333723 337716 341709 351698 362686
      375675 387666 398654 403648 406641
 0.25 536210 536204 535198 532192 527185 523180 517175 515174
      513179 514189 517198 522204 526209 530211 533211 536210
 0.25 514288 521267 518248 515238 511230 507223 502216 499214
      495211 490209 485209 478210 472212 465216 458219 456222
      457226 462227 466227 445240 440248 434254 429258 424265
      420275 418289 418293 420297 426300 434298 441294 447293
      451293 455295 459303 464311 468313 472314 480314 494311
      500308 505303 510297 513292
 0.25 482229 484227 484224 483222 482221 481221 480220 478219
      476219 475219 474221 474222 476223 477224 479224 480226
      480227 481229 482229 482229
 0.50 452627 454633 455642 449656 444667 437677 431687 424700
      410718 404729 396740 382759 367778 360786 355790 350793
      339798 326803 315808 304814 295821 291824 287826 283825
      280821 280813 282800 284794 284792 281791 280789 280786
      284781 290778 295777 305771 311767 315762 323753 331745
      336736 343726 347721 350714 353709 356704 363696 381678
      389670 398662 406650 412640
 0.50 517273 519268 519263 517254 515246 512239 505227 501222
      497218 491217 488218 488222 490231 488236 483238 480236
      478233 473231 469238 467246 465249 462251 456253 452257
      444270 443273 444275 449271 453268 459265 464262 468263
      471265 472268 471270 467276 468284 470291 473297 478302
      484306 490307 496306 502302 509293 517273
 1.00 439631 442636 444640 444645 443652 441658 430677 426687
      420697 407714 395732 383748 376757 368765 360771 352776
      341781 336784 332788 318801 308805 302806 298802 297798
      300793 307786 324773 329766 330761 333755 338746 345736
      350729 353724 356721 358716 362711 370703 378696 384689
      391680 397670 403662 408653 415639
 1.00 515272 516265 516261 514251 511243 508237 502230 497226
      494225 494229 496236 497241 496244 490241 487242 484244
      482247 481252 484268 486280 486288 489296 495297 501294
      506290 514274 515272
 1.50 431634 433637 435643 434653 431661 429668 426677 422685
      414698 405711 396722 385735 381741 375745 370750 364757
      359761 352766 345769 342768 342763 343754 346747 350741
      354735 363722 372709 382698 393686 400674 404666 409659
      419648 430634
 1.50 506282 509272 509264 511256 509249 508242 504236 500236
      502242 504249 505252 503255 498252 494247 489244 486246
      485254 487262 490275 493281 497285 500286 503286 506282
 1.50 321789 321786 320786 318785 316787 315787 314787 313789
      312790 311790 310792 310793 308795 308796 308797 308798
      310798 312798 314797 315796 315795 317794 317793 319792
      319791 320789 321789
 2.00 505281 505274 504265 501259 498255 494249 489246 487249
      487254 489261 491268 493274 496280 501284 505281
 2.00 424655 423653 419656 416662 407677 401684 396689 390695
      386701 380708 376714 375719 376724 380723 384725 387723
      390720 396715 406702 412695 415689 419681 421673 422661
      424655
 3.00 499274 500269 499266 497263 496260 495257 493254 492252
      491255 491258 492262 493266 495269 496271 497274 499274

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 488613 486620 482626 476633 472638 467644 461649 458652
      455653 453656 449658 440660 435659 430653 429648 429643
      429639 431636 432633
 0.01 540205 539194 538187 535183 525167 519159 515155 510153
      502148 495142 481130 474127 470124 468119 469112 467105
      466103 467100 470100 472099 475099 477102 480105 481110
      484113 488114 492117 499114 508117 514114 518104 519097
      521092 519078 517062 515052 510042 502041 496047 493050
      487048 483046 480041 477037 474034 471031 467031 461036
      453042 441052 438057 436063 438069 440073 446080 449084
      450090 448094 444094 435090 429094 426096 423099 419108
      417114 418120 418125 421131 423135 423143 422149 423153
      428162 426173 424177 423184 422191 425194 427196 422199
      412200 409201 405205 403214 409223 405227 402228 400232
      399236 397238 391243 386252 389262 383269 381275 382279
      384284 389286 393286 396284 403279 410273 418269 426265
      435262 441260 450258 459258 463257 468258 476264 483270
      487274 491277 499285 505291 507294 511295 524262 521251
      517241 513232 509223 505215 501207 501203 502200 505200
      512205 515208 517212 522215 525219 527222 532224 535220
      538215 539212
 0.01 523736 522724 521709 519702 518698 514690 505676 499670
      495668 491668 484671 477676 465686 453700 448707 446715
      445724 443734 438741 434748 433758 435773 435777 438780
      442772 443776 442780 440790 437799 434806 433811 434815
      438821 441825 443827 443831 442844 439851 434857 429864
      433871 447877 447882 446884 444889 441894 436899 432905
      427912 424921 424925 422931 423945 428949 437950 439952
      441950 445949 448946 459935 470925 473923 477925 482932
      487937 493942 500946 507948 516947 522939 525931 528921
      529910 529907 528901 527894 526889 523881 518874 514866
      510856 509851 508844 508831 509826 509819 511809 514801
      519782 522757 523736
 0.01 479092 479089 478087 478084 476082 475084 473084 471086
      469088 469090 471093 472093 473093 474094 475094 476094
      477094 479092
 0.01 423789 422784 422782 418783 417785 417788 416790 416795
      415800 415802 417804 419802 420799 421794 421792 423789
 0.01 395963 395959 391954 388952 383951 379949 375945 371945
      368949 357948 349944 335932 332928 328926 320923 312917
      306911 291903 269900 262903 256910 253920 253927 255931
      259938 262941 263945 259955 260959 263962 270967 278971
      287975 292983 295985 301985 309983 318977 326973 330972
      336971 347971 356968 360965 362968 362972 362983 368990
      375991 381991 384988 387984 391974 395963
 0.01 369734 367718 361709 357705 351703 346701 340702 333709
      326716 317725 308733 299738 292746 275762 269760 263761
      254766 248769 244773 238781 234792 233804 234812 231817
      228822 227828 226841 226846 228852 231857 236860 240862
      247862 257857 265851 268846 276845 287848 300847 306846
      312844 323838 327835 329831 332825 333819 333813 332811
      331807 330799 330795 331791 333785 338781 341777 344772
      346767 349763 353758 358754 362750 364744 367739 369734
 0.25 536212 537207 537201 535194 531187 527182 523176 518173
      513168 508164 501160 496158 488157 484154 479150 473147
      467144 462139 460137 456136 454138 453143 450152 446156
      442172 441181 444190 445193 449193 454190 463181 468177
      473176 477175 481176 488179 493183 498186 504187 509190
      518201 525214 528216 532217 536212
 0.25 522267 520258 517249 510231 503216 499209 494201 492191
      490190 488194 485198 482201 475204 463211 457212 451212
      446210 439210 433213 426218 420223 415227 408230 405233
      404236 404239 406242 407248 405259 407261 411259 424252
      436245 443242 447242 451244 454246 457246 465246 470247
      475249 482253 487259 491266 496274 503280 508282 512284
      516283
 0.25 467704 468702 467700 465702 465705 466705 467704 467704
 0.25 456739 456737 456736 456737 455739 456740 456739
 0.25 461797 461795 460793 459790 458788 457786 455788 455789
      454790 454791 453794 453796 454798 455799 456800 458800
      460800 461797
 0.25 313792 314786 310782 302785 293789 282791 279793 276797
      275801 276805 284809 291812 297812 302811 306809 308805
      312796 313792
 0.25 265823 266821 265819 264818 262818 261818 259819 257821
      257822 257824 258824 259825 260826 261825 263825 264825
      265823 265823
 0.50 531205 532200 531197 530194 528191 526190 523189 520188
      517188 518191 519194 521197 522200 524203 526206 529207
      531205
 0.50 519271 520266 519261 517254 511239 499213 495207 491203
      484203 481203 478205 469211 458215 452215 446218 439217
      433218 428222 426223 427227 430229 432229 439227 444227
      452228 458229 460232 460235 456239 454240 455243 468242
      480248 485251 490258 497270 500275 504277 507276 510278
      514279 519271
 0.50 505260 505255 504252 500245 494238 491232 486225 479223
      477224 477228 480231 481234 483238 486238 489239 492242
      495249 498255 500259 504261 505260
 0.50 485166 485163 483161 478160 475156 470153 466149 461144
      457148 456156 463158 467162 473165 474163 476165 482167
      485166
 0.50 463178 463174 462171 460170 457168 453167 451168 450173
      450178 451180 453183 455184 457184 459182 461181 463178
 0.50 420235 420233 420231 419230 418230 417229 416229 415230
      413230 412230 411230 410231 409232 407234 407236 409238
      410239 412239 414239 415239 416238 417238 419237 420236
      420235
 1.00 515261 510249 505237 501233 499225 497219 494213 493211
      490210 484209 481208 479210 478215 482219 488221 491223
      492225 495232 499235 502241 506245 509251 512257 515261

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032150
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTH FLORIDA---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN 2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  THIS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTH FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THE ENTIRE
PRECIP AREA..WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW
AND NSSL WRF.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN NY AND THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ALSO VERY ANOMALOUS...3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE TOTALS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DEPICTED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN PERIOD...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND EARLY DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
EMANATING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL BE SEVERED---WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP EVENT FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.  STILL...THE
FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  ID...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC
RANGE  WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE
.50-1"+ RANGE.


DAYS 2/3...


...EAST COAST...

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL OCCUR ON DAY
1...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT OFF
THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ON FRIDAY...A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
PROLONG PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
CAROLINA...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER BANKS REGION.   HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING...PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.40
INCHES...WHICH IS THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WITH THE FORCING OF THE FRONT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT.  IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT
RISK.  IN ADDITION...MOST OF THIS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WILMINGTON REGION...THUS
DECIDED TO HAVE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENCOMPASS THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  BY FRIDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY PUSH OFF SHORE EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE COD REGION AND SOUTH FLORIDA. WPC USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF
ECMWF/GFS AND IN HOUSE BIASED CORRECTED...WITH MORE WEIGHT PUT ON
THE ECMWF SINCE TIMING MATCHED UP WELL.


...WEST COAST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX MOVING INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND.  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
CANADIAN CASCADES.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AND MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES.  THIS WILL
SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD TOWARD COASTAL WASHINGTON AND
OREGON...ALONG WITH THE CASCADES.  BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
MORNING.  BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...BUT EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF
MONTANA/WYOMING.

BY THE TIME THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES SOUTH TOWARD
WASHINGTON/OREGON...THE CONTENT BREAKS OFF FROM ITS SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN.  THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT.  QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50-1.0"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1"...CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY FOR THE
CASCADES.  WPC USED MOSTLY GFS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ECMWF.
NONETHELESS...ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE DRY THAN THE GFS SO USED IT
SPARINGLY.


...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
EVENING.  ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH RESULTS IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
STAYING IN CANADA. SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.  WPC USED A BLEND OF 12Z
NAM/SREF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/FANNING

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 483615 487616 488619 491623 498634 501640 504646 510663
      515679 521696 523702 523707 522710 521723 517755 514762
      509768 503778 500784 498791 492803 478805 475803 473798
      470793 468790 469785 471769 470759 469750 467746 466741
      465735 463732 457730 453730 452733 450739 450746 446759
      444761 441763 438768 437772 435773 434767 434762 432759
      429753 426753 427750 432745 435741 442740 447739 448736
      448733 446730 444729 440729 436731 430732 418736 414739
      411743 403751 396760 379780 365799 351815 291883 283891
      276900 268909 262911 257914 251917 244919 241918 237914
      236908 236900 236894 238890 239886 239882 238875 236868
      237862 241849 245837 247831 251827 261819 267812 276805
      292791 310774 323758 338739 345731 351720 366700 373689
      379678 384667 390658 399643
 0.01 534212 535198 533184 531177 529172 522162 514154 507148
      498143 494140 492135 486128 478124 472122 468120 463120
      461114 469115 475109 479105 483103 486099 486095 484095
      478094 475091 469090 466090 468100 463100 460100 458102
      450094 442094 436095 428089 424089 425092 427098 422100
      417109 416111 412110 411103 411099 410096 407093 405098
      405105 404108 401108 398106 396109 392112 383115 379115
      379119 381124 386125 389120 394118 400119 404121 414127
      419130 416134 410141 409142 408146 406149 403150 401148
      399148 399151 394162 395168 394172 389176 387180 386185
      387189 390192 395194 396198 394199 389199 385201 386205
      392214 393216 391219 387220 382222 378226 377232 380236
      383240 387243 393244 397244 407247 417249 427248 438250
      451252 460254 467257 471261 475270 479278 483287 491294
      497298 500301 504302 509299 511291 513287 515281 517275
      518268 519262 518253 517246 510225 507219 504213 498205
      497199 499194 503195 504197 508202 514211 517212 521213
      529216 534212
 0.01 506955 506944 503941 498941 497934 496927 494923 481919
      471920 462919 459918 457913 461905 464902 466902 467905
      469910 472912 475915 479915 482913 482909 479901 477898
      479895 482887 482881 481876 477874 476870 472865 470860
      469856 469849 467845 464843 460845 458848 455850 453845
      451841 450836 450823 448818 452816 452813 449809 448804
      445802 443798 438798 435805 431809 427812 426814 427827
      431835 432834 436832 441830 443832 446840 443842 441847
      438850 434851 427849 424847 423840 423834 419834 415835
      412840 411842 411848 409853 408858 408864 410866 412868
      416868 419871 422870 426872 430871 436867 445865 451861
      455860 458862 463870 464874 465877 463878 441901 435906
      431911 431921 435928 450959 454968 457976 460984 465991
      469994 471991 473986 476977 476970 474964 476953 477952
      478955 476958 477964 481967 489967 494965 498961 503958
      506955
 0.01 453085 453080 451075 448072 445070 440069 436071 434073
      438074 441072 444077 446080 449083 452086 453085
 0.01 430790 429784 427779 425777 420777 409779 406782 403783
      389794 376805 373810 370813 366820 368822 372820 375819
      379815 385809 392803 399798 402796 407796 409800 410808
      410812 413817 416818 419816 422806 425798 430790
 0.01 415069 415066 412062 407060 405058 402060 399060 396062
      391066 385065 387068 384072 378069 374068 372066 369066
      369068 373074 375082 375085 379085 382083 386086 387085
      386078 390082 393081 395085 397085 397081 401079 405075
      413076 414071 415069
 0.25 435632 448639 456643 459644 464643 472643 476645 479649
      484657 487665 488673 487677 484687 480690 475690 467687
      461685 454689 446695 441701 428714 422721 415727 408733
      403740 394753 384766 372781 351805 340817 329831 320843
      309856 297868 285879 279884 275891 272894 268893 260891
      256872 257860 257854 258850 261841 264832 269826 274821
      286810 298798 318772 339746 359718 368705 378689 397661
      404651 410640
 0.25 529202 528193 524185 520179 515174 509170 502168 497165
      488163 484158 477153 471148 467142 464140 460140 458141
      456145 454150 451152 443151 438148 434150 433155 435159
      438161 442166 446173 447177 445179 442181 440184 440188
      444191 446189 448192 450195 453195 457188 462184 464181
      464178 462174 458173 456170 457165 460164 464166 468172
      474173 478173 481175 488180 494182 501183 507185 512191
      520202 523204 526204 529202
 0.25 516264 516257 514250 509236 499213 495208 488205 482204
      476205 467210 461209 456213 451215 445215 441215 436219
      435222 436225 441229 442233 440239 443243 450245 461245
      467247 472250 481258 488268 495279 499284 504287 508286
      509281 513270 516264
 0.25 498253 496244 493236 489229 484224 476221 470224 468227
      470229 477228 480231 482234 489237 493244 497252 498253
 0.25 499677 499674 499672 499669 498667 498665 498664 496664
      495665 495668 496670 497671 498672 499675 499677 499677
 0.25 490142 490139 488136 486134 483133 481132 479132 476133
      474133 474138 477138 480137 482138 484138 487141 488142
      490142
 0.25 455228 454228 453227 452227 452229 454229 455228
 0.50 512258 512251 510245 506235 497216 495212 490209 485208
      479207 471210 468212 463212 455215 447218 443218 441220
      441222 444225 448226 452225 457226 461228 465227 471221
      475220 480220 485222 488224 493233 499242 504252 509259
      512258
 0.50 505276 505267 501260 496254 493247 489239 487238 484239
      481236 479233 476230 472231 468232 464230 459232 451234
      449235 446238 450241 454242 461242 469244 476248 482252
      487259 495272 500277 503278 505276
 0.50 494171 492169 491168 489168 488167 486166 484165 483166
      483168 484170 485171 485172 487173 489173 490173 490172
      492172 494171
 0.50 480165 478162 474159 472156 470150 468147 463145 459147
      459151 462155 464159 466162 469163 473164 478166 480165
 0.50 462663 460660 458658 452654 441643 434641 430639 427639
      421644 416648 406659 395672 387683 378696 369709 360723
      352733 343746 324771 316782 306794 296805 285815 276825
      271831 268839 267847 265854 264863 266873 268876 271877
      282875 288872 293868 303859 313846 331824 370778 379766
      389753 406729 412724 417718 427705 432699 437692 443687
      449683 453679 457674 461669 462663
 0.50 462181 461176 458177 456177 454175 453171 451169 449170
      449174 451177 452180 452183 455185 457184 460183 462181
 1.00 506242 505239 503236 502233 500230 499227 498224 496221
      493222 494227 495229 497231 499235 501238 502240 503242
      506242
 1.00 485217 486215 485213 484212 482211 481210 479210 477211
      475212 474214 473214 473216 474216 475216 477217 478217
      480217 482218 483218 485218 485217
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 468220 466217 465216 462216 459217 457217 454218 454220
      456221 458224 460225 462225 464224 466222 468220
 1.00 429668 428666 425666 420669 415674 408677 400679 395684
      388693 381702 373713 358732 351741 343752 337760 329771
      323782 316792 309801 304806 299809 291816 286821 284823
      285828 286834 284840 279850 279858 282864 288864 294861
      303852 310845 317835 324824 331815 340807 349798 357789
      363780 367773 371768 378759 386749 392739 398726 403715
      406708 410703 418693 423682 429668
 1.50 463221 462219 461218 459219 459220 460222 460223 461223
      462222 463221
 1.50 399700 397698 395699 391703 385704 381708 369723 356737
      351743 346752 335767 331775 327786 317801 308816 303824
      298832 288847 287852 288857 292858 297856 304850 309843
      314836 320827 324820 329811 331808 335806 344800 350793
      356786 361778 364768 374753 379745 383740 387737 390727
      390721 399700
 2.00 373736 370728 363733 353743 350749 347756 338768 335773
      335780 336785 335790 333793 328798 324802 318808 310819
      307825 303832 295843 292849 292854 296853 302849 307844
      315832 321819 328806 330804 334802 339797 349787 353782
      357775 360769 364762 372750 373747 372741 373736
 3.00 315826 314822 312824 309829 305833 302838 298842 296847
      298849 303844 306840 310836 313831 315826

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 483615 482626 477637 474646 469654 463663 457672 452679
      446686 439694 435705 429711 424720 415738 410746 405753
      390767 384772 378780 373788 370791 365795 358801 351805
      334816 327820 324823 320827 315834 308842 303848 296854
      290860 281866 266874 261876 258876 245875 241874 235874
      230874 228870 224860 221856 219850 219840 218835 222834
      226836 233826 238822 231820 230816 231813 236809 241805
      247800 254789 258785 262780 267775 269769 271762 275755
      281744 289732 292727 300725 304730 309724 318716 318712
      321709 326704 330699 336695 347685 356677 377659 396644
 0.01 460328 462328 463328 465328 467329 468329 470330 472331
      472330 474329 475330 477330 479331 480330 482330 484329
      486329 487330 488329 489328 491329 491328 493327 495328
      495327 497326 525256 521247 518236 516227
      510217 504212 500209 499203 499198 501199 508204 516210
      523216 529222 533231 544188 535183 531180 528173 524169
      520166 516163 513159 496144 489138 487126 480120 474121
      470125 467130 464134 458140 453143 450147 443147 440146
      436148 437153 439157 441164 442170 443177 445184 448188
      454189 458188 462186 463178 458169 457164 459160 461159
      465161 473166 478175 483187 484194 480199 471202 463203
      454209 450211 443210 426217 417222 408226 400230 394237
      393245 396250 400253 403260 397271 396277 397283 396293
      394303
 0.01 502096 500075 498065 498057 497053 495043 491035 487011
      485005 483002 481992 479974 477964 476961 477958 479955
      486955 492957 496957 498956 501946 498922 494899 490890
      489886 492883 496881 499877 504870 506867 506861 505849
      505844 503841 502839 498837 497832 496828 492825 484825
      478822 471815 475806 475802 473798 469789 467786 467781
      464773 461770 458771 452774 442788 438803 435808 433811
      433816 436823 438828 441829 443827 447826 450826 451832
      453838 452843 447846 442846 438847 435849 428852 424857
      421863 421872 428876 428881 430885 436890 443890 449887
      454891 458899 460910 454915 448919 441923 429935 420949
      417956 417966 413985 410993 406998 399011 389024 387027
      383029 375031 367033 364035 362039 363044 365047 370050
      371053 378056 380058 382056 386058 387061 383063 382065
      382068 380070 376071 374073 374077 379083 386086 390087
      395088 404086 410083 418079 423079 426077 433077 441075
      446080 449087 448092 446092 440089 433092 430087 425086
      427094 429099 429104 421104 405109 402110 398110 397115
      400118 409120 416125 419128 419133 420138 423138 425136
      426133 428128 430127 442123 450125 454125 456120 457116
      459114 460116 465117 468116 472114 476113 482107 483104
      484097 479092 468090 466092 464096 461099 457096 457091
      459088 459084 458079 456076 452075 447070 448068 445063
      443055 441050 438048 435046 433042 432038 433036 437038
      439043 441048 446053 449056 451059 457069 460072 461070
      468068 473074 472076 476077 480077 483080 485085 487091
      491094 493092 495092 499096 502096
 0.01 469701 468699 465699 462703 454708 446717 442727 439731
      438736 443747 445752 447749 450743 451738 454725 456720
      457717 460716 464713 466709 469701
 0.01 452020 451017 451013 451005 450001 450996 451992 450988
      448990 445991 441988 436979 433984 433992 434999 438002
      444012 442019 439024 445033 447034 445029 445022 449021
      452020
 0.01 439779 438772 438765 437755 436751 432756 426755 423761
      424765 428772 430776 434781 439779
 0.01 431790 431783 427777 423780 418780 415788 416795 417802
      421808 424806 424803 427803 429800 430797 430793 431790
 0.01 375066 373064 371063 370063 368061 366061 364063 366065
      368066 369066 371066 373066 375067 375066
 0.25 462623 462634 459644 456653 451662 435688 431696 427704
      420709 415717 407730 398744 389757 378770 368781 363787
      357792 345801 327809 314815 302825 296830 289834 269838
      262841 256845 243853 236856 227858 225854 225849 225844
      227840 231836 234833 239832 243831 247829 253826 265816
      270810 272806 268803 261802 256802 255799 261795 265789
      314750 324738 329732 333723 337716 341709 351698 362686
      375675 387666 398654 403648 406641
 0.25 536210 536204 535198 532192 527185 523180 517175 515174
      513179 514189 517198 522204 526209 530211 533211 536210
 0.25 514288 521267 518248 515238 511230 507223 502216 499214
      495211 490209 485209 478210 472212 465216 458219 456222
      457226 462227 466227 445240 440248 434254 429258 424265
      420275 418289 418293 420297 426300 434298 441294 447293
      451293 455295 459303 464311 468313 472314 480314 494311
      500308 505303 510297 513292
 0.25 482229 484227 484224 483222 482221 481221 480220 478219
      476219 475219 474221 474222 476223 477224 479224 480226
      480227 481229 482229 482229
 0.50 452627 454633 455642 449656 444667 437677 431687 424700
      410718 404729 396740 382759 367778 360786 355790 350793
      339798 326803 315808 304814 295821 291824 287826 283825
      280821 280813 282800 284794 284792 281791 280789 280786
      284781 290778 295777 305771 311767 315762 323753 331745
      336736 343726 347721 350714 353709 356704 363696 381678
      389670 398662 406650 412640
 0.50 517273 519268 519263 517254 515246 512239 505227 501222
      497218 491217 488218 488222 490231 488236 483238 480236
      478233 473231 469238 467246 465249 462251 456253 452257
      444270 443273 444275 449271 453268 459265 464262 468263
      471265 472268 471270 467276 468284 470291 473297 478302
      484306 490307 496306 502302 509293 517273
 1.00 439631 442636 444640 444645 443652 441658 430677 426687
      420697 407714 395732 383748 376757 368765 360771 352776
      341781 336784 332788 318801 308805 302806 298802 297798
      300793 307786 324773 329766 330761 333755 338746 345736
      350729 353724 356721 358716 362711 370703 378696 384689
      391680 397670 403662 408653 415639
 1.00 515272 516265 516261 514251 511243 508237 502230 497226
      494225 494229 496236 497241 496244 490241 487242 484244
      482247 481252 484268 486280 486288 489296 495297 501294
      506290 514274 515272
 1.50 431634 433637 435643 434653 431661 429668 426677 422685
      414698 405711 396722 385735 381741 375745 370750 364757
      359761 352766 345769 342768 342763 343754 346747 350741
      354735 363722 372709 382698 393686 400674 404666 409659
      419648 430634
 1.50 506282 509272 509264 511256 509249 508242 504236 500236
      502242 504249 505252 503255 498252 494247 489244 486246
      485254 487262 490275 493281 497285 500286 503286 506282
 1.50 321789 321786 320786 318785 316787 315787 314787 313789
      312790 311790 310792 310793 308795 308796 308797 308798
      310798 312798 314797 315796 315795 317794 317793 319792
      319791 320789 321789
 2.00 505281 505274 504265 501259 498255 494249 489246 487249
      487254 489261 491268 493274 496280 501284 505281
 2.00 424655 423653 419656 416662 407677 401684 396689 390695
      386701 380708 376714 375719 376724 380723 384725 387723
      390720 396715 406702 412695 415689 419681 421673 422661
      424655
 3.00 499274 500269 499266 497263 496260 495257 493254 492252
      491255 491258 492262 493266 495269 496271 497274 499274

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 488613 486620 482626 476633 472638 467644 461649 458652
      455653 453656 449658 440660 435659 430653 429648 429643
      429639 431636 432633
 0.01 540205 539194 538187 535183 525167 519159 515155 510153
      502148 495142 481130 474127 470124 468119 469112 467105
      466103 467100 470100 472099 475099 477102 480105 481110
      484113 488114 492117 499114 508117 514114 518104 519097
      521092 519078 517062 515052 510042 502041 496047 493050
      487048 483046 480041 477037 474034 471031 467031 461036
      453042 441052 438057 436063 438069 440073 446080 449084
      450090 448094 444094 435090 429094 426096 423099 419108
      417114 418120 418125 421131 423135 423143 422149 423153
      428162 426173 424177 423184 422191 425194 427196 422199
      412200 409201 405205 403214 409223 405227 402228 400232
      399236 397238 391243 386252 389262 383269 381275 382279
      384284 389286 393286 396284 403279 410273 418269 426265
      435262 441260 450258 459258 463257 468258 476264 483270
      487274 491277 499285 505291 507294 511295 524262 521251
      517241 513232 509223 505215 501207 501203 502200 505200
      512205 515208 517212 522215 525219 527222 532224 535220
      538215 539212
 0.01 523736 522724 521709 519702 518698 514690 505676 499670
      495668 491668 484671 477676 465686 453700 448707 446715
      445724 443734 438741 434748 433758 435773 435777 438780
      442772 443776 442780 440790 437799 434806 433811 434815
      438821 441825 443827 443831 442844 439851 434857 429864
      433871 447877 447882 446884 444889 441894 436899 432905
      427912 424921 424925 422931 423945 428949 437950 439952
      441950 445949 448946 459935 470925 473923 477925 482932
      487937 493942 500946 507948 516947 522939 525931 528921
      529910 529907 528901 527894 526889 523881 518874 514866
      510856 509851 508844 508831 509826 509819 511809 514801
      519782 522757 523736
 0.01 479092 479089 478087 478084 476082 475084 473084 471086
      469088 469090 471093 472093 473093 474094 475094 476094
      477094 479092
 0.01 423789 422784 422782 418783 417785 417788 416790 416795
      415800 415802 417804 419802 420799 421794 421792 423789
 0.01 395963 395959 391954 388952 383951 379949 375945 371945
      368949 357948 349944 335932 332928 328926 320923 312917
      306911 291903 269900 262903 256910 253920 253927 255931
      259938 262941 263945 259955 260959 263962 270967 278971
      287975 292983 295985 301985 309983 318977 326973 330972
      336971 347971 356968 360965 362968 362972 362983 368990
      375991 381991 384988 387984 391974 395963
 0.01 369734 367718 361709 357705 351703 346701 340702 333709
      326716 317725 308733 299738 292746 275762 269760 263761
      254766 248769 244773 238781 234792 233804 234812 231817
      228822 227828 226841 226846 228852 231857 236860 240862
      247862 257857 265851 268846 276845 287848 300847 306846
      312844 323838 327835 329831 332825 333819 333813 332811
      331807 330799 330795 331791 333785 338781 341777 344772
      346767 349763 353758 358754 362750 364744 367739 369734
 0.25 536212 537207 537201 535194 531187 527182 523176 518173
      513168 508164 501160 496158 488157 484154 479150 473147
      467144 462139 460137 456136 454138 453143 450152 446156
      442172 441181 444190 445193 449193 454190 463181 468177
      473176 477175 481176 488179 493183 498186 504187 509190
      518201 525214 528216 532217 536212
 0.25 522267 520258 517249 510231 503216 499209 494201 492191
      490190 488194 485198 482201 475204 463211 457212 451212
      446210 439210 433213 426218 420223 415227 408230 405233
      404236 404239 406242 407248 405259 407261 411259 424252
      436245 443242 447242 451244 454246 457246 465246 470247
      475249 482253 487259 491266 496274 503280 508282 512284
      516283
 0.25 467704 468702 467700 465702 465705 466705 467704 467704
 0.25 456739 456737 456736 456737 455739 456740 456739
 0.25 461797 461795 460793 459790 458788 457786 455788 455789
      454790 454791 453794 453796 454798 455799 456800 458800
      460800 461797
 0.25 313792 314786 310782 302785 293789 282791 279793 276797
      275801 276805 284809 291812 297812 302811 306809 308805
      312796 313792
 0.25 265823 266821 265819 264818 262818 261818 259819 257821
      257822 257824 258824 259825 260826 261825 263825 264825
      265823 265823
 0.50 531205 532200 531197 530194 528191 526190 523189 520188
      517188 518191 519194 521197 522200 524203 526206 529207
      531205
 0.50 519271 520266 519261 517254 511239 499213 495207 491203
      484203 481203 478205 469211 458215 452215 446218 439217
      433218 428222 426223 427227 430229 432229 439227 444227
      452228 458229 460232 460235 456239 454240 455243 468242
      480248 485251 490258 497270 500275 504277 507276 510278
      514279 519271
 0.50 505260 505255 504252 500245 494238 491232 486225 479223
      477224 477228 480231 481234 483238 486238 489239 492242
      495249 498255 500259 504261 505260
 0.50 485166 485163 483161 478160 475156 470153 466149 461144
      457148 456156 463158 467162 473165 474163 476165 482167
      485166
 0.50 463178 463174 462171 460170 457168 453167 451168 450173
      450178 451180 453183 455184 457184 459182 461181 463178
 0.50 420235 420233 420231 419230 418230 417229 416229 415230
      413230 412230 411230 410231 409232 407234 407236 409238
      410239 412239 414239 415239 416238 417238 419237 420236
      420235
 1.00 515261 510249 505237 501233 499225 497219 494213 493211
      490210 484209 481208 479210 478215 482219 488221 491223
      492225 495232 499235 502241 506245 509251 512257 515261

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032057
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

NORTH FLORIDA---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN 2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  THIS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTH FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THE ENTIRE
PRECIP AREA..WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW
AND NSSL WRF.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN NY AND THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ALSO VERY ANOMALOUS...3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE TOTALS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DEPICTED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN PERIOD...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND EARLY DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
EMANATING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL BE SEVERED---WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP EVENT FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.  STILL...THE
FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  ID...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC
RANGE  WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE
.50-1"+ RANGE.

DAYS 2/3...


...EAST COAST...

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL OCCUR ON DAY
1...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT OFF
THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ON FRIDAY...A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL
PROLONG PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
CAROLINA...MOST ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER BANKS REGION.   HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING...PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.40
INCHES...WHICH IS THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WITH THE FORCING OF THE FRONT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT.  IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT
RISK.  IN ADDITION...MOST OF THIS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WILMINGTON REGION...THUS
DECIDED TO HAVE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENCOMPASS THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  BY FRIDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY PUSH OFF SHORE EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE COD REGION AND SOUTH FLORIDA. WPC USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF
ECMWF/GFS AND IN HOUSE BIASED CORRECTED...WITH MORE WEIGHT PUT ON
THE ECMWF SINCE TIMING MATCHED UP WELL.


...WEST COAST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL SET UP FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...PRIMARILY IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...WITH MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX MOVING INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND.  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
CANADIAN CASCADES.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AND MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES.  THIS WILL
SHIFT PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD TOWARD COASTAL WASHINGTON AND
OREGON...ALONG WITH THE CASCADES.  BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
MORNING.  BY SATURDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...BUT EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF
MONTANA/WYOMING.

BY THE TIME THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES SOUTH TOWARD
WASHINGTON/OREGON...THE CONTENT BREAKS OFF FROM ITS SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN.  THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT.  QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50-1.0"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1"...CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY FOR THE
CASCADES.  WPC USED MOSTLY GFS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ECMWF.
NONETHELESS...ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE DRY THAN THE GFS SO USED IT
SPARINGLY.


...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
EVENING.  ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH RESULTS IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
STAYING IN CANADA. SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.  WPC USED A BLEND OF 12Z
NAM/SREF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/FANNING

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 483615 487616 488619 491624 494627 497634 503644 505652
      508657 514674 516682 519691 522699 523706 522715 521723
      517754 515760 512765 506773 500784 498791 495797 491803
      483804 477804 473798 470793 468789 469785 471770 470761
      469754 468749 467747 466739 464734 463732 457730 453732
      451736 450745 448751 446759 442762 440765 438768 437772
      435773 434766 434762 432759 429754 426753 430748 432744
      436741 443740 447739 448733 446730 444730 442729 438730
      431732 424734 416737 411743 383775 367796 360806 351815
      337832 323846 291883 283891 276899 270907 261911 256915
      251917 244919 241918 237913 236904 236895 238890 239886
      239881 237874 236869 237863 240853 244842 247831 256822
      276805 291791 299784 306778 315767 324758 338739 345730
      351721 363704 367699 371692 377680 383669 390658 399643
 0.01 534212 535204 535197 533184 531179 529174 525166 521161
      517157 509150 505147 499144 495141 492135 486128 478124
      473123 469120 462119 462113 468115 471113 475108 479105
      483103 486099 486095 484095 478094 475091 466090 467095
      470098 467100 462100 428089 424089 425092 427098 425101
      423100 420104 418109 416111 412110 410096 406093 405101
      405105 402108 398106 396109 392112 382114 378116 379119
      380124 385125 390119 395117 402119 411125 415128 419130
      417134 410141 409142 408146 405150 403150 401148 399150
      394159 394163 395168 394173 389176 386181 386188 389191
      394194 396196 394199 389199 385201 386206 392213 393218
      389220 381222 378226 377230 378233 384242 394245 399245
      407247 417249 426248 445251 452253 458253 464255 468259
      472262 474268 477273 479278 484288 490294 496297 499300
      503302 506302 509297 511292 512290 514285 516275 519263
      518253 517246 510225 505217 500209 497203 497199 498197
      500193 503195 507200 513209 516212 521213 528216 532214
      534212
 0.01 506955 506948 505944 503941 499941 496926 493923 489921
      484921 480919 471920 462919 459918 457913 460905 463903
      467903 469910 475915 479915 482912 479895 482887 481877
      472865 466843 462843 459846 456850 454849 453845 451841
      450835 450824 452812 449808 448804 445802 443798 438799
      436803 431809 427812 426815 427827 430833 431835 434833
      437831 440830 443831 445835 446839 443842 442846 439849
      437851 434851 427849 424847 423841 423835 421834 415836
      411844 410850 408854 409864 412868 416868 419871 423870
      426872 430871 435868 438867 442866 450862 453860 458861
      462868 464873 465876 463878 444899 438904 432910 431915
      431921 435928 448957 453966 457974 460984 465991 469994
      471990 473986 476977 476968 474963 475959 475954 477952
      478955 476960 477964 481967 489967 497962 506955
 0.01 453085 453080 451075 448072 445070 440069 436071 434073
      438074 441072 444077 446080 449083 452086 453085
 0.01 430790 429784 428780 425777 420777 410779 403783 396788
      389794 376805 371812 368815 366817 366820 368822 371821
      375819 379815 384809 392803 398798 402796 407796 413817
      416818 419817 422806 425798 430790
 0.01 415069 415066 412063 411061 407060 405058 403060 399060
      396062 392066 385065 387068 385072 378069 374068 373066
      369066 369068 372073 375082 375085 379085 381083 386086
      387086 386081 386078 390082 392081 395085 397085 397081
      401079 404075 413075 414071 415069
 0.25 435632 459644 471643 474644 477646 482655 487665 488673
      487678 484686 481689 477690 470689 463685 458687 455689
      450692 446695 441701 428714 418724 411731 405737 394753
      385765 375777 363791 351805 341816 331828 320842 309856
      297868 287877 280883 276890 273893 269894 260891 256872
      257854 260844 263835 267828 274822 286811 296802 303795
      307788 319773 337749 359718 368705 376693 381683 386677
      397661 404652 410640
 0.25 529202 528194 525187 520180 515174 509170 504169 497165
      488163 484158 479154 472149 467142 464140 460140 458141
      456144 452152 447152 443151 438148 435149 433152 434158
      437161 442166 447177 441182 440188 444191 446189 448191
      449195 452197 456189 462184 464181 464178 463174 460173
      456172 457166 459164 464166 468172 472173 477172 481174
      488180 494182 498183 499183 504184 507185 512191 520201
      522204 525205 529202
 0.25 516264 516257 514250 509236 499214 495208 489206 482204
      476205 467210 461209 456213 451215 447215 441215 436219
      435222 436225 440229 443232 440239 443243 449245 461245
      471249 476253 481258 488267 495279 499283 502286 506287
      508287 509281 512271 516264
 0.25 498253 496244 493236 489229 484224 476221 470224 468227
      470229 477228 480231 482234 489237 493244 497252 498253
 0.25 499677 499674 499672 499669 498667 498665 498664 496664
      495665 495668 496670 497671 498672 499675 499677 499677
 0.25 490142 490139 488136 486134 483133 481132 479132 476133
      474133 474138 477138 480137 482138 484138 487141 488142
      490142
 0.25 455228 454228 453227 452227 452229 454229 455228
 0.50 512258 512252 511247 506235 497216 495212 491210 486208
      479207 473210 468212 463212 447218 443218 441219 441222
      444225 448226 452225 456225 460228 465227 471222 475220
      480220 487223 491228 493233 498241 504252 508258 510259
      512258
 0.50 505276 505268 503263 501260 496255 493247 489240 487238
      484239 481236 479233 476230 472231 469232 465230 459232
      452234 449235 446238 449241 453241 461242 468243 476248
      482252 487259 495272 499277 503278 505276
 0.50 494171 492169 491168 489168 488167 486166 484165 483166
      483168 484170 485171 485172 487173 489173 490173 490172
      492172 494171
 0.50 480165 478162 474159 472156 470150 468147 463145 459147
      459151 462155 464159 466162 469163 473164 478166 480165
 0.50 462663 460660 457657 452654 443646 437642 430639 423642
      416648 406658 397669 387682 382690 378696 369709 361720
      352733 342746 326768 317782 306794 288813 277825 272831
      268839 268843 267847 265853 264861 264868 266874 269877
      275877 280876 287873 293868 303859 311849 321837 331824
      348802 370778 379766 387756 406729 412723 416718 425708
      431700 436693 443687 449683 457675 461669 462663
 0.50 462181 461176 458177 456177 454175 453171 451169 449170
      449174 451177 452180 452183 455185 457184 460183 462181
 1.00 506242 505239 503236 502233 500230 499227 498224 496221
      493222 494227 495229 497231 499235 501238 502240 503242
      506242
 1.00 485217 486215 485213 484212 482211 481210 479210 477211
      475212 474214 473214 473216 474216 475216 477217 478217
      480217 482218 483218 485218 485217
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 468220 466217 465216 462216 459217 457217 454218 454220
      456221 458224 460225 462225 464224 466222 468220
 1.00 429668 425667 422668 417672 413675 408678 399680 394685
      387695 373712 357732 350741 343750 336760 329771 318789
      310800 306804 300808 292815 285822 286835 280848 278854
      280861 284865 289864 293862 299857 304853 308848 315839
      320831 327820 335809 350794 367775 374767 380757 394736
      399724 404714 407708 410702 418692 424681 429668
 1.50 463221 462219 461218 459219 459220 460222 460223 461223
      462222 463221
 1.50 399700 383706 369723 358735 351743 346752 336765 331774
      327785 318799 308816 287848 286852 287858 291859 295857
      302851 309844 314836 318829 324821 328811 333804 339798
      348793 354786 366772 372764 378755 381746 385739 390730
      392718 399700
 2.00 375751 373744 372739 373736 371729 365732 360736 355741
      352745 349752 346757 341763 338767 334774 335782 335791
      344787 349785 354781 362770 370760 373756 375751
 2.00 327803 327800 325801 320805 313814 310819 308824 301834
      295843 292847 290854 293855 296855 301851 308842 314832
      319821 324812 327807 327803
 3.00 315826 314823 312824 309829 306833 302838 298842 296847
      296851 301846 305842 308838 310833 314828 315826

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 476618 474629 469639 464647 459656 453664 447672 443681
      439691 436701 433706 430710 423715 417722 407740 396755
      390763 384771 379778 377782 376787 378790 378792 375793
      371795 365796 350807 341812 333816 326821 320828 313837
      308843 302849 295855 288862 281867 265874 261876 255875
      244875 234874 230874 228869 223860 221856 219850 219840
      218835 222834 225836 233826 238821 231820 230816 231813
      236809 247800 250795 251792 254789 262780 267775 269769
      271761 275755 278750 281744 289732 292727 300725 302727
      306728 310723 318713 327702 333698 337694 358675 365670
      369665 380657 396644
 0.01 460328 462328 463328 465328 467329 468329 470330 472331
      472330 474329 475330 477330 479331 480330 482330 484329
      486329 487330 488329 489328 491329 491328 493327 495328
      495327 497326 525256 522248 520239 517231
      513224 510217 504211 500206 501201 504202 510207 516211
      522216 526220 530223 531227 533231 545186 542183 537181
      530175 525169 522166 518164 493141 487135 486131 483127
      475124 469125 468132 466137 460143 458147 457150 462156
      466164 475169 482184 485187 486191 485195 482198 479199
      472202 465203 451211 444213 434210 428215 422219 415223
      408225 400228 397229 397234 397240 398243 400248 403250
      396285 397289 396294 394303
 0.01 502096 498060 495045 490033 488015 487008 485004 482998
      481991 481986 479982 479974 478970 477965 476962 477957
      480955 484955 490957 497958 499957 500953 501951 501945
      501940 499937 499929 497920 494909 494904 492899 490893
      488891 485891 483897 481915 480918 478922 471924 463924
      458927 452927 445927 438927 434930 426938 423942 421947
      418953 417961 417965 419968 420971 419975 412988 408999
      402012 399016 396021 389029 385033 383035 379035 373032
      368034 364036 364043 368048 372055 375055 379058 382056
      386054 390052 393055 389057 385063 382063 382065 384066
      383069 381074 381081 385085 391087 394087 396090 400087
      407084 413082 417080 423079 436076 441075 445079 447085
      449087 448092 445092 443089 440088 435090 433092 431090
      428087 425086 424089 429103 417105 407109 398111 398116
      403118 406119 410121 416125 418126 419131 420138 436121
      438120 441121 446124 454125 457120 457117 459114 464117
      468116 473114 476114 477112 481108 484103 484097 482094
      478092 472091 467090 463097 460099 458098 457095 459088
      459084 458081 456076 450073 447070 448068 445064 445062
      443055 440049 435046 431040 433035 436037 438038 439043
      443050 447053 453064 457069 460072 465070 468068 470071
      473073 472076 477077 480077 483079 485083 487090 489093
      491094 493091 497094 502096
 0.01 506867 506859 505850 505844 503839 492825 483825 476821
      473818 471816 472813 476805 472794 467786 466779 465774
      461770 457771 453774 448780 443786 440791 440796 439801
      436806 434810 433815 436824 438828 441829 445827 450826
      451830 452835 453838 453842 450845 441846 437847 432850
      428852 425855 421863 421872 425874 427876 428880 430885
      433887 435890 440890 444889 448887 452889 455893 458897
      459902 460909 462911 464913 467910 470905 472900 474896
      478894 484887 491884 496881 501876 506867
 0.01 469701 468699 465699 462703 454708 446717 442727 439731
      438736 443747 445752 447749 450743 451738 454725 456720
      457717 460716 464713 466709 469701
 0.01 463178 458170 456162 454157 451154 446152 442149 440146
      438148 442157 444160 444167 444174 445179 445184 448187
      451188 455186 461180 463178
 0.01 452020 451017 451013 451005 450000 450996 451992 450988
      448990 445991 441988 439984 436980 431988 431994 432999
      433008 435014 435025 438026 440028 443031 448036 445026
      445022 447021 449021 452020
 0.01 439779 438772 438765 437755 436751 432756 430755 426755
      423761 424765 428772 430776 434781 439779
 0.01 431790 431783 427777 423780 418780 415788 416795 417802
      421808 424806 424803 427803 429800 430797 430793 431790
 0.01 410054 409052 408049 404047 403046 399045 397046 395048
      394050 392052 393055 397055 400054 404055 407055 410054
 0.01 375066 373064 371063 370063 368061 366061 364063 366065
      368066 369066 371066 373066 375067 375066
 0.25 462623 461632 458642 455651 450658 434686 425702 416715
      408729 400742 389755 378769 359791 345801 329808 315814
      303824 290834 271838 264840 257844 245852 237856 227858
      225855 225850 225846 226841 236833 244831 252827 265817
      269811 272807 270804 262802 254802 263792 272779 276773
      280769 283768 293766 300763 306759 311754 322741 327736
      330732 331728 335720 338713 347701 358689 364683 371678
      383669 395657 403649 409641
 0.25 535209 535198 531190 527185 522178 517174 513173 513178
      513189 516197 520203 525209 528211 532211 535209
 0.25 520271 521264 520258 518248 516240 512231 508224 503217
      496212 488209 479209 473212 467215 460218 457219 456224
      464229 466232 463232 455234 448236 443243 439249 434254
      428259 423266 420278 418290 419295 423299 429300 442294
      449293 453293 456297 459305 465311 469314 475315 482314
      494311 501307 506301 511294 515285 520271
 0.25 482229 484227 484224 483222 482221 481221 480220 478219
      476219 475219 474221 474222 476223 477224 479225 480226
      480227 481229 482229 482229
 0.50 454626 455634 453643 448655 442666 436677 429690 422700
      408721 402732 395743 380762 363780 356788 345795 332802
      322804 312811 303818 297821 290824 283823 280818 284792
      279790 280786 282783 288779 293777 298774 304770 312764
      330746 337737 342726 348713 351708 356703 373686 391667
      398660 406650 415639
 0.50 517273 519267 519263 517254 515247 512239 505227 502222
      497218 490217 488218 488222 490230 490234 488236 482238
      477234 473231 469238 467247 462251 456253 452257 444270
      444275 446273 449273 454268 459265 464262 468263 469288
      471294 476301 481304 488307 494306 500304 504300 507296
      511289 514283 517273
 1.00 443629 446633 446641 443651 440658 435666 426684 422691
      418699 397728 392736 386742 375756 369762 363768 349778
      345780 339781 334780 331777 328774 327770 329761 330757
      333753 338746 348732 353724 356721 357717 362710 368703
      381691 387685 392678 402663 413649 424636
 1.00 515272 516265 516261 514251 511244 508237 502230 497226
      494225 494228 496236 497242 496244 490241 487242 484245
      483249 482255 485273 489281 489290 490294 494297 499295
      505291 509284 515272
 1.00 325788 323783 320780 316780 312779 302785 299788 298792
      300791 303787 311783 314785 315789 310797 305802 297799
      295796 293796 294798 294800 290798 288802 291809 286813
      290814 293813 302808 309803 321793 325788
 1.00 298796 297794 295793 294794 295796 296796 297797 298796
 1.50 506282 509272 509264 511257 509249 508243 504236 500235
      502242 504249 505252 503255 498252 494247 489244 486247
      485254 487262 488268 490274 493280 497285 500287 503286
      506282
 1.50 438643 438637 434634 430636 427639 417650 407665 398677
      388691 377703 372709 368716 359728 348741 345748 343751
      344754 344759 342763 342768 345768 352765 358761 364755
      369748 381739 387733 392726 397720 402714 412701 417695
      421687 434657 437649 438643
 1.50 292799 290799 289801 290802 291801 292800 292799
 2.00 505281 505274 504265 501259 498255 494249 489246 487249
      487254 489261 491268 493274 496280 501284 505281
 2.00 433647 433645 430645 427647 421654 411669 406677 400683
      394690 389697 383704 378711 375720 377723 380723 384723
      389721 394715 405701 412695 416688 420679 423670 427661
      431653 433647
 3.00 500274 501269 499266 497263 496260 495257 493254 492252
      491255 491258 492262 493266 495269 496271 497274 500274

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 488613 486620 482626 476633 472638 467644 461649 458652
      455653 453656 449658 440660 435659 430653 429648 429643
      429639 431636 432633
 0.01 540205 539194 538187 535183 525167 519159 515155 510153
      502148 495142 481130 474127 470124 468119 469112 467105
      466103 467100 470100 472099 475099 477102 480105 481110
      484113 488114 492117 499114 508117 514114 518104 519097
      521092 519078 517062 515052 510042 502041 496047 493050
      487048 483046 480041 477037 474034 471031 467031 461036
      453042 441052 438057 436063 438069 440073 446080 449084
      450090 448094 444094 435090 429094 426096 423099 419108
      417114 418120 418125 421131 423135 423143 422149 423153
      428162 426173 424177 423184 422191 425194 427196 422199
      412200 409201 405205 403214 409223 405227 402228 400232
      399236 397238 391243 386252 389262 383269 381275 382279
      384284 389286 393286 396284 403279 410273 418269 426265
      435262 441260 450258 459258 463257 468258 476264 483270
      487274 491277 499285 505291 507294 511295 524262 521251
      517241 513232 509223 505215 501207 501203 502200 505200
      512205 515208 517212 522215 525219 527222 532224 535220
      538215 539212
 0.01 523736 522724 521709 519702 518698 514690 505676 499670
      495668 491668 484671 477676 465686 453700 448707 446715
      445724 443734 438741 434748 433758 435773 435777 438780
      442772 443776 442780 440790 437799 434806 433811 434815
      438821 441825 443827 443831 442844 439851 434857 429864
      433871 447877 447882 446884 444889 441894 436899 432905
      427912 424921 424925 422931 423945 428949 437950 439952
      441950 445949 448946 459935 470925 473923 477925 482932
      487937 493942 500946 507948 516947 522939 525931 528921
      529910 529907 528901 527894 526889 523881 518874 514866
      510856 509851 508844 508831 509826 509819 511809 514801
      519782 522757 523736
 0.01 479092 479089 478087 478084 476082 475084 473084 471086
      469088 469090 471093 472093 473093 474094 475094 476094
      477094 479092
 0.01 423789 422784 422782 418783 417785 417788 416790 416795
      415800 415802 417804 419802 420799 421794 421792 423789
 0.01 395963 395959 391954 388952 383951 379949 375945 371945
      368949 357948 349944 335932 332928 328926 320923 312917
      306911 291903 269900 262903 256910 253920 253927 255931
      259938 262941 263945 259955 260959 263962 270967 278971
      287975 292983 295985 301985 309983 318977 326973 330972
      336971 347971 356968 360965 362968 362972 362983 368990
      375991 381991 384988 387984 391974 395963
 0.01 369734 367718 361709 357705 351703 346701 340702 333709
      326716 317725 308733 299738 292746 275762 269760 263761
      254766 248769 244773 238781 234792 233804 234812 231817
      228822 227828 226841 226846 228852 231857 236860 240862
      247862 257857 265851 268846 276845 287848 300847 306846
      312844 323838 327835 329831 332825 333819 333813 332811
      331807 330799 330795 331791 333785 338781 341777 344772
      346767 349763 353758 358754 362750 364744 367739 369734
 0.25 536212 537207 537201 535194 531187 527182 523176 518173
      513168 508164 501160 496158 488157 484154 479150 473147
      467144 462139 460137 456136 454138 453143 450152 446156
      442172 441181 444190 445193 449193 454190 463181 468177
      473176 477175 481176 488179 493183 498186 504187 509190
      518201 525214 528216 532217 536212
 0.25 522267 520258 517249 510231 503216 499209 494201 492191
      490190 488194 485198 482201 475204 463211 457212 451212
      446210 439210 433213 426218 420223 415227 408230 405233
      404236 404239 406242 407248 405259 407261 411259 424252
      436245 443242 447242 451244 454246 457246 465246 470247
      475249 482253 487259 491266 496274 503280 508282 512284
      516283
 0.25 467704 468702 467700 465702 465705 466705 467704 467704
 0.25 456739 456737 456736 456737 455739 456740 456739
 0.25 461797 461795 460793 459790 458788 457786 455788 455789
      454790 454791 453794 453796 454798 455799 456800 458800
      460800 461797
 0.25 313792 314786 310782 302785 293789 282791 279793 276797
      275801 276805 284809 291812 297812 302811 306809 308805
      312796 313792
 0.25 265823 266821 265819 264818 262818 261818 259819 257821
      257822 257824 258824 259825 260826 261825 263825 264825
      265823 265823
 0.50 531205 532200 531197 530194 528191 526190 523189 520188
      517188 518191 519194 521197 522200 524203 526206 529207
      531205
 0.50 519271 520266 519261 517254 511239 499213 495207 491203
      484203 481203 478205 469211 458215 452215 446218 439217
      433218 428222 426223 427227 430229 432229 439227 444227
      452228 458229 460232 460235 456239 454240 455243 468242
      480248 485251 490258 497270 500275 504277 507276 510278
      514279 519271
 0.50 505260 505255 504252 500245 494238 491232 486225 479223
      477224 477228 480231 481234 483238 486238 489239 492242
      495249 498255 500259 504261 505260
 0.50 485166 485163 483161 478160 475156 470153 466149 461144
      457148 456156 463158 467162 473165 474163 476165 482167
      485166
 0.50 463178 463174 462171 460170 457168 453167 451168 450173
      450178 451180 453183 455184 457184 459182 461181 463178
 0.50 420235 420233 420231 419230 418230 417229 416229 415230
      413230 412230 411230 410231 409232 407234 407236 409238
      410239 412239 414239 415239 416238 417238 419237 420236
      420235
 1.00 515261 510249 505237 501233 499225 497219 494213 493211
      490210 484209 481208 479210 478215 482219 488221 491223
      492225 495232 499235 502241 506245 509251 512257 515261

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 032031
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

VALID 00Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 07 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO UPPER MIDWEST...

A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW IS GIVING WAY TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS SYSTEM
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE NW AND WILL PROCEED DOWNSTREAM ON THURS
INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE CASCADES TO THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
TRANSITION TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
ON FRI RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT SNOW FROM WY/CO OUT INTO PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE THESE TWO STREAMS TRACK SOUTH AND EAST ON
SAT... A THIRD STREAM OF ARCTIC VARIETY WILL COME INTO PICTURE AS
IT DIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
SPELL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE UP OF MI.

BY LATE FRI THROUGH SAT... A PROGRESSIVE PAC SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT
THE NW AND NRN ROCKIES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
THE CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND BITTERROOTS.

...COASTAL NORTHEAST/MID-ATL...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND PRESSING
INTO THE EAST TODAY WILL REMAIN PREVALENT INTO LATE THURS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRI. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM UPPER DYNAMICS NEAR CO/NM AT THIS
TIME WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE... A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE ALONG THE NRN STREAM WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TWO STREAMS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PHASE... TAKE A NEG TILT WITH BACKING FLOW... INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF NC AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A
BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OR EDGE OF
THE ANTICIPATED STREAM OF QPF. NOW THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ON THE EXACT MASS FIELD SETUP
ALONG WITH CRITICAL QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES. WPC WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED A STRIPE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM NERN NC/SERN VA
THROUGH SRN DE/SERN MD AND SERN NJ TO THE ERN PORTION OF LONG
ISLAND AND SERN NEW ENGLAND. ITS THE LATTER SPOT NEAR SERN MA/CAPE
COD WHERE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS COULD DOUBLE BEFORE THE PHASED
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE ERN SEABOARD.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031906
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 21Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE BVY 30 SSE ACY 9W7 25 S FLO 20 SSW LHW 20 NW CTY
110 SSW AAF 45 SSE KVOA 30 NE KVOA HRT 25 SW OZR 15 SW MLJ UZA
15 SSE EXX CJR 25 NE DDH MWN 15 ENE BML WVL IWI 10 NE BVY.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E VLD 10 NW 40J 10 SE AAF 45 SSW PAM 55 SW PAM 45 S DTS
20 S DTS 11J 40 WSW EZM 20 S EZM 15 SSE DQH 15 E VLD.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTH FLORIDA---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN 2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN DAY 1.  THIS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD FROM
NORTH FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THE ENTIRE
PRECIP AREA..WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW
AND NSSL WRF.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.

COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN NY AND THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ALSO VERY ANOMALOUS...3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODERATE TOTALS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DEPICTED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN PERIOD...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND EARLY DAY 1 INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
EMANATING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WILL BE SEVERED---WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP EVENT FROM BEING VERY HEAVY.  STILL...THE
FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM THE NORTHERN  ID...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC
RANGE  WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE
.50-1"+ RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 483615 487616 488619 491624 494627 497634 503644 505652
      508657 514674 516682 519691 522699 523706 522715 521723
      517754 515760 512765 506773 500784 498791 495797 491803
      483804 477804 473798 470793 468789 469785 471770 470761
      469754 468749 467747 466739 464734 463732 457730 453732
      451736 450745 448751 446759 442762 440765 438768 437772
      435773 434766 434762 432759 429754 426753 430748 432744
      436741 443740 447739 448733 446730 444730 442729 438730
      431732 424734 416737 411743 383775 367796 360806 351815
      337832 323846 291883 283891 276899 270907 261911 256915
      251917 244919 241918 237913 236904 236895 238890 239886
      239881 237874 236869 237863 240853 244842 247831 256822
      276805 291791 299784 306778 315767 324758 338739 345730
      351721 363704 367699 371692 377680 383669 390658 399643
 0.01 534212 535204 535197 533184 531179 529174 525166 521161
      517157 509150 505147 499144 495141 492135 486128 478124
      473123 469120 462119 462113 468115 471113 475108 479105
      483103 486099 486095 484095 478094 475091 466090 467095
      470098 467100 462100 428089 424089 425092 427098 425101
      423100 420104 418109 416111 412110 410096 406093 405101
      405105 402108 398106 396109 392112 382114 378116 379119
      380124 385125 390119 395117 402119 411125 415128 419130
      417134 410141 409142 408146 405150 403150 401148 399150
      394159 394163 395168 394173 389176 386181 386188 389191
      394194 396196 394199 389199 385201 386206 392213 393218
      389220 381222 378226 377230 378233 384242 394245 399245
      407247 417249 426248 445251 452253 458253 464255 468259
      472262 474268 477273 479278 484288 490294 496297 499300
      503302 506302 509297 511292 512290 514285 516275 519263
      518253 517246 510225 505217 500209 497203 497199 498197
      500193 503195 507200 513209 516212 521213 528216 532214
      534212
 0.01 506955 506948 505944 503941 499941 496926 493923 489921
      484921 480919 471920 462919 459918 457913 460905 463903
      467903 469910 475915 479915 482912 479895 482887 481877
      472865 466843 462843 459846 456850 454849 453845 451841
      450835 450824 452812 449808 448804 445802 443798 438799
      436803 431809 427812 426815 427827 430833 431835 434833
      437831 440830 443831 445835 446839 443842 442846 439849
      437851 434851 427849 424847 423841 423835 421834 415836
      411844 410850 408854 409864 412868 416868 419871 423870
      426872 430871 435868 438867 442866 450862 453860 458861
      462868 464873 465876 463878 444899 438904 432910 431915
      431921 435928 448957 453966 457974 460984 465991 469994
      471990 473986 476977 476968 474963 475959 475954 477952
      478955 476960 477964 481967 489967 497962 506955
 0.01 453085 453080 451075 448072 445070 440069 436071 434073
      438074 441072 444077 446080 449083 452086 453085
 0.01 430790 429784 428780 425777 420777 410779 403783 396788
      389794 376805 371812 368815 366817 366820 368822 371821
      375819 379815 384809 392803 398798 402796 407796 413817
      416818 419817 422806 425798 430790
 0.01 415069 415066 412063 411061 407060 405058 403060 399060
      396062 392066 385065 387068 385072 378069 374068 373066
      369066 369068 372073 375082 375085 379085 381083 386086
      387086 386081 386078 390082 392081 395085 397085 397081
      401079 404075 413075 414071 415069
 0.25 435632 459644 471643 474644 477646 482655 487665 488673
      487678 484686 481689 477690 470689 463685 458687 455689
      450692 446695 441701 428714 418724 411731 405737 394753
      385765 375777 363791 351805 341816 331828 320842 309856
      297868 287877 280883 276890 273893 269894 260891 256872
      257854 260844 263835 267828 274822 286811 296802 303795
      307788 319773 337749 359718 368705 376693 381683 386677
      397661 404652 410640
 0.25 529202 528194 525187 520180 515174 509170 504169 497165
      488163 484158 479154 472149 467142 464140 460140 458141
      456144 452152 447152 443151 438148 435149 433152 434158
      437161 442166 447177 441182 440188 444191 446189 448191
      449195 452197 456189 462184 464181 464178 463174 460173
      456172 457166 459164 464166 468172 472173 477172 481174
      488180 494182 498183 499183 504184 507185 512191 520201
      522204 525205 529202
 0.25 516264 516257 514250 509236 499214 495208 489206 482204
      476205 467210 461209 456213 451215 447215 441215 436219
      435222 436225 440229 443232 440239 443243 449245 461245
      471249 476253 481258 488267 495279 499283 502286 506287
      508287 509281 512271 516264
 0.25 498253 496244 493236 489229 484224 476221 470224 468227
      470229 477228 480231 482234 489237 493244 497252 498253
 0.25 499677 499674 499672 499669 498667 498665 498664 496664
      495665 495668 496670 497671 498672 499675 499677 499677
 0.25 490142 490139 488136 486134 483133 481132 479132 476133
      474133 474138 477138 480137 482138 484138 487141 488142
      490142
 0.25 455228 454228 453227 452227 452229 454229 455228
 0.50 512258 512252 511247 506235 497216 495212 491210 486208
      479207 473210 468212 463212 447218 443218 441219 441222
      444225 448226 452225 456225 460228 465227 471222 475220
      480220 487223 491228 493233 498241 504252 508258 510259
      512258
 0.50 505276 505268 503263 501260 496255 493247 489240 487238
      484239 481236 479233 476230 472231 469232 465230 459232
      452234 449235 446238 449241 453241 461242 468243 476248
      482252 487259 495272 499277 503278 505276
 0.50 494171 492169 491168 489168 488167 486166 484165 483166
      483168 484170 485171 485172 487173 489173 490173 490172
      492172 494171
 0.50 480165 478162 474159 472156 470150 468147 463145 459147
      459151 462155 464159 466162 469163 473164 478166 480165
 0.50 462663 460660 457657 452654 443646 437642 430639 423642
      416648 406658 397669 387682 382690 378696 369709 361720
      352733 342746 326768 317782 306794 288813 277825 272831
      268839 268843 267847 265853 264861 264868 266874 269877
      275877 280876 287873 293868 303859 311849 321837 331824
      348802 370778 379766 387756 406729 412723 416718 425708
      431700 436693 443687 449683 457675 461669 462663
 0.50 462181 461176 458177 456177 454175 453171 451169 449170
      449174 451177 452180 452183 455185 457184 460183 462181
 1.00 506242 505239 503236 502233 500230 499227 498224 496221
      493222 494227 495229 497231 499235 501238 502240 503242
      506242
 1.00 485217 486215 485213 484212 482211 481210 479210 477211
      475212 474214 473214 473216 474216 475216 477217 478217
      480217 482218 483218 485218 485217
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 468220 466217 465216 462216 459217 457217 454218 454220
      456221 458224 460225 462225 464224 466222 468220
 1.00 429668 425667 422668 417672 413675 408678 399680 394685
      387695 373712 357732 350741 343750 336760 329771 318789
      310800 306804 300808 292815 285822 286835 280848 278854
      280861 284865 289864 293862 299857 304853 308848 315839
      320831 327820 335809 350794 367775 374767 380757 394736
      399724 404714 407708 410702 418692 424681 429668
 1.50 463221 462219 461218 459219 459220 460222 460223 461223
      462222 463221
 1.50 399700 383706 369723 358735 351743 346752 336765 331774
      327785 318799 308816 287848 286852 287858 291859 295857
      302851 309844 314836 318829 324821 328811 333804 339798
      348793 354786 366772 372764 378755 381746 385739 390730
      392718 399700
 2.00 375751 373744 372739 373736 371729 365732 360736 355741
      352745 349752 346757 341763 338767 334774 335782 335791
      344787 349785 354781 362770 370760 373756 375751
 2.00 327803 327800 325801 320805 313814 310819 308824 301834
      295843 292847 290854 293855 296855 301851 308842 314832
      319821 324812 327807 327803
 3.00 315826 314823 312824 309829 306833 302838 298842 296847
      296851 301846 305842 308838 310833 314828 315826

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031436
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 15Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW MFV 10 ENE JNX 35 SSE SSC 10 ESE LHW 10 SW CTY 110 S AAF
65 ENE KIPN 20 S KVOA 35 SW JKA 25 SW GZH 15 ENE ALX 20 WNW 47A
15 ESE TYS 25 WSW LNP 30 WNW I16 25 WNW W22 25 SW LBE 20 NE DUJ
10 ENE DSV 15 SW ART 20 W SLK 25 S MPV 15 ENE BML WVL IWI
10 N BVY GON 20 E BLM 20 WNW MFV.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE VLD 10 SW 40J 40 SSE AAF 70 SSW PAM 35 S DTS 30 N ECP
20 N 11J 40 N ABY 20 S EZM 15 SSE DQH 15 SE VLD.


1500 UTC UPDATE

THERE WERE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STRETCHING FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE WESTERN EDGE WAS TRIMMED AS PER THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM AND NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
RATIONALE AS STATED BELOW.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...THERE WILL
BE A PATTERN OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 50 TO 70 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY
HIGH MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER PWS
WHERE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COINCIDING WITH A
RELATIVELY DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERDONE WITH THEIR QPF
FOR THIS EVENT...AND THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE
SIMPLY NOT GENERATING ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED RECORD PW VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ON WED...AND
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...HEAVY RAINS ARE GUARANTEED OVER A LARGE
AREA OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT
WETTER AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z UKMET...BUT EVEN THESE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO BE LOCALLY UNDERDONE.

WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS
INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE PERIOD THOUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. PERSISTENTLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A MUCH
BETTER DEFINED AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS HERE WHICH IS STRONGLY
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND THE 00Z NSSL-WRF SOLUTIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
ONGOING SNOW-MELT...EXPECT THERE TO BE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED DOWN ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031436
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 15Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW MFV 10 ENE JNX 35 SSE SSC 10 ESE LHW 10 SW CTY 110 S AAF
65 ENE KIPN 20 S KVOA 35 SW JKA 25 SW GZH 15 ENE ALX 20 WNW 47A
15 ESE TYS 25 WSW LNP 30 WNW I16 25 WNW W22 25 SW LBE 20 NE DUJ
10 ENE DSV 15 SW ART 20 W SLK 25 S MPV 15 ENE BML WVL IWI
10 N BVY GON 20 E BLM 20 WNW MFV.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE VLD 10 SW 40J 40 SSE AAF 70 SSW PAM 35 S DTS 30 N ECP
20 N 11J 40 N ABY 20 S EZM 15 SSE DQH 15 SE VLD.


1500 UTC UPDATE

THERE WERE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STRETCHING FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE WESTERN EDGE WAS TRIMMED AS PER THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM AND NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
RATIONALE AS STATED BELOW.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...THERE WILL
BE A PATTERN OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 50 TO 70 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY
HIGH MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER PWS
WHERE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COINCIDING WITH A
RELATIVELY DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERDONE WITH THEIR QPF
FOR THIS EVENT...AND THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE
SIMPLY NOT GENERATING ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED RECORD PW VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ON WED...AND
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...HEAVY RAINS ARE GUARANTEED OVER A LARGE
AREA OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT
WETTER AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z UKMET...BUT EVEN THESE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO BE LOCALLY UNDERDONE.

WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS
INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE PERIOD THOUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. PERSISTENTLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A MUCH
BETTER DEFINED AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS HERE WHICH IS STRONGLY
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND THE 00Z NSSL-WRF SOLUTIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
ONGOING SNOW-MELT...EXPECT THERE TO BE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED DOWN ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031436
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 15Z WED FEB 03 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW MFV 10 ENE JNX 35 SSE SSC 10 ESE LHW 10 SW CTY 110 S AAF
65 ENE KIPN 20 S KVOA 35 SW JKA 25 SW GZH 15 ENE ALX 20 WNW 47A
15 ESE TYS 25 WSW LNP 30 WNW I16 25 WNW W22 25 SW LBE 20 NE DUJ
10 ENE DSV 15 SW ART 20 W SLK 25 S MPV 15 ENE BML WVL IWI
10 N BVY GON 20 E BLM 20 WNW MFV.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE VLD 10 SW 40J 40 SSE AAF 70 SSW PAM 35 S DTS 30 N ECP
20 N 11J 40 N ABY 20 S EZM 15 SSE DQH 15 SE VLD.


1500 UTC UPDATE

THERE WERE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STRETCHING FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE WESTERN EDGE WAS TRIMMED AS PER THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END.  OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM AND NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
RATIONALE AS STATED BELOW.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...THERE WILL
BE A PATTERN OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER BASICALLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS AXIS OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 50 TO 70 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY
HIGH MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER PWS
WHERE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COINCIDING WITH A
RELATIVELY DIVERGENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERDONE WITH THEIR QPF
FOR THIS EVENT...AND THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE
SIMPLY NOT GENERATING ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED RECORD PW VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ON WED...AND
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...HEAVY RAINS ARE GUARANTEED OVER A LARGE
AREA OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT
WETTER AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z UKMET...BUT EVEN THESE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO BE LOCALLY UNDERDONE.

WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS
INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE PERIOD THOUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. PERSISTENTLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A MUCH
BETTER DEFINED AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS HERE WHICH IS STRONGLY
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND THE 00Z NSSL-WRF SOLUTIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
ONGOING SNOW-MELT...EXPECT THERE TO BE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED DOWN ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

$$





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