Home > Products > National Data >
000
FOUS30 KWBC 020108
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 01Z MON MAY 02 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW ACP 15 SW BTR 20 WSW MSY 10 WNW KXPY 15 NNE KSPR
15 NNE KCRH 15 NNW KGVX 10 S SGR 15 SE UTS 35 NNE JAS 20 NNW ACP.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S PKB CKB 20 ESE EKN 10 SE HSP 20 ENE MKJ 20 NNE LNP
20 SSE HTS 20 S PKB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW KCMB 10 SSW GLS 15 NNE EFD 25 NNW BPT 25 S ACP
15 NNW PTN 25 ENE SRN 15 WNW KCMB.




...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV... WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN IOWA
AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" PER THE LATEST GPS VALUES.
DAYTIME RANGE PER GPS VALUES. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE-BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED TO
AROUND 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT TO FAVOR CONTINUED FORWARD (DOWNWIND)
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...CELL MERGERS AND AND VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING
HAVE RESULTED IN 1-1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER RADAR IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE TOPOGRAPHY...ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS...AND THUS VERY
LOW FFG (1" OR LESS WITHIN 3 HOURS)...SOME EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN. THE LATEST (18Z) SSEO
GUIDANCE IN FACT SHOWS AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES OF 3 HOURLY QPF
EXCEEDING 3 HOURLY FFG WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA (BETWEEN 30-60%)
THROUGH 02-04Z...OR PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY.


...UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS...

0100 UTC UPDATE...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS. CONVECTION LIKELY TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH BETTER HIGH-RES CAM
CONSENSUS FOR A POCKET OF 3-6+ INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
(TO INCLUDE THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA) PER RECENT
HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AND NAM CONEST RUNS.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
THE LATEST (18Z) SSEO GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF 3 HOURLY QPF
EXCEEDING 3 HOURLY FFG CLIMBING BETWEEN 60-80% WITHIN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA AFTER 09Z.

HURLEY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
857 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 01Z MON MAY 02 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW ACP 15 SW BTR 20 WSW MSY 10 WNW KXPY 15 NNE KSPR
15 NNE KCRH 15 NNW KGVX 10 S SGR 15 SE UTS 35 NNE JAS 20 NNW ACP.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S PKB CKB 20 ESE EKN 10 SE HSP 20 ENE MKJ 20 NNE LNP
20 SSE HTS 20 S PKB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW KCMB 10 SSW GLS 15 NNE EFD 25 NNW BPT 25 S ACP
15 NNW PTN 25 ENE SRN 15 WNW KCMB.




...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV... WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN IOWA
AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" PER THE LATEST GPS VALUES.
DAYTIME RANGE PER GPS VALUES. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE-BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED TO
AROUND 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT TO FAVOR CONTINUED FORWARD (DOWNWIND)
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...CELL MERGERS AND AND VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING
HAVE RESULTED IN 1-1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER RADAR IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE TOPOGRAPHY...ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS...AND THUS VERY
LOW FFG (1" OR LESS WITHIN 3 HOURS)...SOME EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN. THE LATEST SSEO GUIDANCE
IN FACT SHOWS AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES OF 3 HOURLY QPF EXCEEDING
3 HOURLY FFG WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA (BETWEEN 30-60%) THROUGH
02-04Z...OR PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY.


...UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHERN LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING
THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE 08-12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
AND EXPERIMENTAL RUNS...ALONG WITH WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE SPC WRF
TO SHOW 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES.  THE
0000 HI RES NSSL WRF DEVELOPED THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF SO WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAVING DEVELOPED INLAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LEAST RELIABLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION SHOULD BRING THE CELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THEN.

PETERSEN/HURLEY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 012247
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 02/0000 UTC THRU MAY 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

......LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA...TN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTS IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEEP LAYER
JET.  AS THIS OCCURS A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND OF 700 MB
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IN THE
COUPLED 300 MB JET REGION AND THEN MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...INCLUDING ALREADY WET LOUISIANA...AND THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST MON.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN LA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MON WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES----ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA OVERHEAD IN THE COUPLED JET
REGION IN THE SOUTHEAST MON.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WHICH HAD A SIMILAR
AXIS/ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL.
THE 12Z NAM WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH ITS PRECIP AXIS IN
AR/WESTERN TN AND WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING CONSIDERING ITS
FRONTAL AXIS/ORIENTATION WAS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS.

IN THE CAROLINAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CONFLUENT LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MEAN INDICATING 1.5-1.75 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.  MANUAL QPF USED THE HIGHER ECMWF/CANADIAN REGION GEM
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE PLUS FAVORED PEAK
PERIOD FOR INSTABILITY.

...LOWER LAKES---OH/PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND...

AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OHIO INTO PA BY MON
MORNING AND REFORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MON. A CORRESPONDING
700 MB WAVE CROSSES FURTHER NORTH AND LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE WAVE WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON.
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A STRIPE OF HALF TO ONE INCH
FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND INTERIOR NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED. THIS IS NORTH OF THE NAM AXIS
OF QPF WITH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM JOINING THE GFS/UKMET WITH
AN AXIS FURTHER NORTH...ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGER 700 MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE.

...SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  ENHANCED 700 MB MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF 70-90 PERCENT
ARE FCST TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE RANGES OF SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE
SYNOPTIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE VALLEY
SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
MON MORNING AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
WEAKEN.  AN UPTICK IN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION MON.  GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEG C/KM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM MON...WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL AND SREF MEAN BLEND.


DAYS 2/3...


***CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE EAST COAST***

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RATHER
SLOWLY AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT PWS TO 1.5 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP PW GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT.  MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (DAY 2)
IN CONJUNCTION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE ASCENT.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFERING MORE THAN USUAL WITH NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE TIMING OF THESE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AND THIS LEADS TO A QPF FORECAST THAT HAS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN RESPECT TO MESOSCALE DETAILS.  THE ENSEMBLE
BIASED CORRECTED MODEL WAS USED AS A BASELINE FOR QPF, ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
THAT WAS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD ALSO HAVE THESE
TYPE OF AMOUNTS.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 2 WAS MAINTAINED
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  BY DAY 3, THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND NO EXCESSIVE AREAS ARE NOTED DURING THIS
TIME.


***GREAT LAKE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST***

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. BY MIDWEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA CANADA IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.  THE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND THERMAL ZONE THOUGH WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
SEPARATE FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  AS A RESULT, MAINLY LIGHT QPF CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CONVECTIVE
SHOWER ACTIVITY.


***PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA***

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WEST OF THE COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD EVOLVING INTO A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AS PART OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.   LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 442630 455640 466654 470661 472663 476663 483664 486665
      490668 495673 498678 495698 491716 487722 482726 476732
      474734 472738 461753 457760 455768 453777 448785 445793
      441801 438807 435815 433835 433844 433854 435858 436866
      437870 436874 434885 434896 430900 426908 420912 415912
      412916 410918 408922 409926 411926 423919 426919 429916
      433919 438923 440926 438930 431935 429936 427940 428945
      425947 420949 417952 415954 410955 408957 403958 400959
      396959 386959 379958 375952 375948 373945 377938 380924
      381919 378916 375918 390888 385883 382882 380884 378887
      368898 364904 363913 361923 358932 354947 352955 350961
      343978 339986 334994 331002 327009 319022 314026 308030
      302035 295038 289040 287041 283041 280039 276039 268038
      257028 252022 252015 250011 244007 238004 233999 232988
      233983 238977 249968 254965 256962 257957 260943 261938
      261931 260921 260908 260903 263899 279875 284868 284860
      285855 285850 284845 281842 271835 260828 254824 251816
      249810 248805 254801 260796 267793 275795 282797 281791
      283791 291790 299791 309790 315786 322783 324777 327768
      330761 335752 340746 349734 358721 362714 366708 374694
      378688 379680 381673 382665 383659 384655 385654 393645
 0.01 492005 489990 486977 482974 480972 477972 471972 467974
      460973 454974 450976 445976 433980 426987 419996 417001
      416008 416013 418015 421020 425023 428027 431040 433045
      434047 437047 448044 453044 457040 464033 469026 468023
      469021 471019 475016 485013 487011 490008 492005
 0.01 459235 457231 454233 450232 450227 450223 452220 450219
      448221 447228 446234 449237 453236 457236 459235
 0.01 437236 436235 436230 437228 435225 430223 424219 420219
      417215 414210 412202 406204 402201 399196 396194 390194
      388192 387188 389185 388180 391179 392181 396182 397172
      401167 405163 408168 409167 413169 415167 416163 417161
      419159 414148 411145 406147 400139 396141 390140 387138
      386134 388128 397123 399127 401130 405130 406130 406123
      402120 400118 402117 409110 409103 406100 403106 400105
      399101 397100 397095 399088 402082 402079 401070 400064
      397059 396053 392051 388050 386050 381048 378048 376044
      377036 378028 379026 380021 378015 376008 373001 373999
      370998 369003 369007 367012 365016 364025 365029 369042
      369046 367049 363050 359053 355049 355044 353042 347041
      343044 338049 335053 329053 327055 328057 332058 335060
      335062 336064 336068 332079 332086 333090 337102 344128
      347132 348136 348140 351144 353142 353140 355138 361139
      370143 371148 374151 372156 369155 369151 369149 365148
      362152 359153 357150 355149 353150 350154 352157 356162
      360163 363162 365164 367165 367169 370172 373173 382170
      384179 384184 380185 378178 378175 375176 373178 369177
      362177 362173 363172 363168 359169 359174 359182 360188
      364192 378204 388211 401216 403219 405219 409219 413223
      410228 407229 403228 399229 400233 404237 421237 426240
      431240 435239 437236
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 389093 387094
      385095 385097 383096 382097 383098 385097 385099 386102
      388104 389105 391105 392103
 0.01 385111 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384111 385111
      385111
 0.01 377110 377103 375101 375098 374092 371087 371080 371077
      369075 366075 363079 360080 361083 364086 369089 372093
      368096 366097 368099 371104 372109 369118 371123 373118
      373114 374111 376111 377110
 0.01 376060 375056 374054 368055 364054 361056 357055 356058
      352062 350068 350073 352073 355071 358073 360071 358069
      359062 359058 363061 368058 373059 376060
 0.01 356113 356111 355109 353111 354113 355113 356113
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.25 481690 481684 479680 473676 460669 448665 442663 439663
      436660 426650 421646 415648 411647 405651 398660 390674
      383690 377703 374710 371717 364727 361733 360741 364742
      368740 372740 374743 376750 375758 371764 368763 366760
      357746 358743 355743 350748 345753 341760 337774 336780
      333787 330795 327802 324806 319809 313814 306818 303821
      301824 306829 317835 323838 324844 322848 316859 313864
      308869 290887 285892 280898 276906 273914 271929 268937
      268946 269955 268962 267966 269969 271972 271977 272980
      270981 266980 262981 261977 261972 258970 255973 250978
      249982 250986 248995 249000 251002 256005 266016 272019
      278020 286020 291018 295013 294005 292002 290000 284997
      284985 288983 292985 295988 297987 299991 301988 301982
      308968 315957 323947 325945 328945 331952 332954 335954
      339948 343941 346933 347922 350914 355901 362886 368872
      375858 379845 382840 384834 385829 389828 392830 393834
      393844 394855 395866 396871 398874 402880 408884 411886
      415886 420882 423874 424865 427851 428841 426829 426821
      427811 428799 432792 444763 449751 453745 458741 464735
      468729 470722 472714 477699 481690
 0.25 400753 400751 400749 400746 399744 398743 398742 396741
      396742 395743 394745 394747 393748 393750 393752 394754
      395754 396755 398756 400754 400753
 0.25 399825 399823 399821 399818 399816 399814 398812 397814
      397816 397818 398821 398823 399825 399825
 0.25 394080 393079 393078 392076 390077 389077 389079 390081
      391082 393081 394080
 0.25 381076 381074 380071 378070 376071 376073 375075 376077
      377078 379077 381076
 0.25 315998 316994 315991 312991 309992 306992 303994 301996
      299998 299002 301004 304005 307006 311005 312003 314001
      315998
 0.50 468707 468698 467691 461684 456677 449672 445672 440674
      437677 435681 435694 434703 430714 428723 426735 424744
      423750 424756 427766 436761 439759 441755 443749 445745
      450738 458733 462726 465716 468707
 0.50 424679 423671 422667 419662 417660 413658 407659 400664
      395672 391679 384697 381706 379715 378724 379734 380741
      384743 387742 389739 398723 405706 408701 411699 418693
      423687 424679
 0.50 430771 428768 426770 421775 417783 415790 411798 410806
      410811 412814 415814 417812 420804 421794 424789 427785
      429782 430773 430771
 0.50 422848 423843 421840 416843 411846 404847 402853 403861
      405866 409871 412872 416870 417864 418856 420851 422848
 0.50 390799 389790 387783 382783 377785 363799 354807 351811
      348815 346824 342833 337843 330852 324858 318866 310874
      302881 288893 285897 283904 280915 279922 277927 274936
      273943 275950 279960 283964 288966 297968 303966 308962
      313953 317943 323935 330927 336918 346901 358881 363873
      366862 370849 374838 377828 378825 380823 385821 388815
      389810 390799
 0.50 359778 359770 356764 351762 347765 344770 344776 341783
      342790 348790 353788 357783 359778
 0.50 285972 283971 281971 279971 277972 276972 275974 275975
      276976 277977 279977 281977 281976 283976 284974 285974
      285972
 0.50 281012 278005 274999 269995 266992 263992 260992 259989
      255983 252985 253989 257994 258999 260001 264007 269013
      276014 280014 281012
 0.50 279985 279983 277980 275981 273982 272983 270984 270985
      269986 270987 271988 273988 275987 276987 277986 279985
      279985
 1.00 413675 412667 407666 403670 400674 396683 393694 391706
      387716 387723 389726 394717 398707 399700 402697 408688
      412678 413675
 1.00 366840 366836 364832 358830 355831 354835 351842 348849
      344855 341862 343865 346863 351858 356854 361848 365843
      366840
 1.00 335889 334884 329885 322887 315890 309894 301899 295906
      294911 293916 290923 285931 281939 282946 285949 291954
      298959 303958 306956 308952 309947 309941 308935 310929
      312925 317917 322910 328904 332897 335889
 1.50 298939 298937 298935 297934 296933 294934 292935 290937
      289939 289941 289943 290944 292945 294943 296942 296941
      297939 298939

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 474619 481626 487636 492645 498656 503667 507680 508688
      507695 505701 501703 498706 492709 484715 465725 459727
      455730 450729 446727 444725 443718 446712 449709 451703
      449697 442686 439673 436659 434645 435632
 0.01 521269 521261 519255 514245 507234 501224 496221 493217
      494213 492210 487207 467210 457211 447212 440211 433209
      425201 427193 430188 431182 432173 431168 424166 422163
      421158 422155 420152 418152 416157 415166 415170 416173
      417180 420185 420192 418196 416198 412200 410203 406208
      400207 398203 391200 381194 378197 378200 381204 386207
      394215 405222 405226 401229 398233 397237 398240 400243
      403244 409245 416247 421247 441245 447245 452248 458250
      463250 469251 473252 479253 485255 497276 505284 508287
      510285 514286 516285
 0.01 520829 520817 519813 516811 511807 507807 502806 500798
      495793 489790 483793 474804 466818 460831 454847 451866
      449887 449910 450916 451920 453930 457935 463934 469929
      472920 475927 481932 485933 489932 492927 494918 495911
      498909 502908 504906 507903 508898 510896 511891 513883
      515861 515851 516848 516842 520829
 0.01 493241 493232 492225 489222 483221 477219 473220 465226
      461226 455226 451228 446228 442230 445232 448231 457234
      462236 468238 471235 472231 474229 479229 483232 490240
      493241
 0.01 463178 463176 461175 458177 454176 453171 451170 450170
      449175 450178 450183 450185 451188 453188 455186 457184
      459182 461180 463178
 0.01 443232 442230 440230 438231 439233 441233 443232
 0.01 436681 435672 433667 429656 425652 420650 411646 409645
      405646 399650 389658 385662 382667 378675 375680 374685
      370695 367707 365712 362718 355728 347738 333753 325760
      317765 308772 299778 290784 285787 278790 255792 248795
      248799 252804 256804 262809 270823 293832 294837 291841
      287845 286852 284862 282869 280873 277877 274882 271887
      270892 269898 266902 260911 254923 249933 246937 245943
      244955 242969 243974 246980 250982 255988 265990 271989
      275987 281986 285983 292975 294971 295965 298952 302941
      308929 315922 330906 342891 350883 356874 363864 366865
      366869 364872 366875 367883 369888 369891 373891 379891
      383888 386884 388880 388877 389874 389856 388840 387832
      388825 395815 406792 410782 413771 417758 421747 426737
      429721 435693 436681
 0.01 449044 449033 449027 448025 448013 448001 448995 446992
      442987 435984 428982 422984 415984 411991 408999 404005
      398009 389011 385006 378006 376008 376012 375017 374023
      370027 374044 375047 371048 362046 358046 355048 351052
      348054 348057 352063 352069 349072 340071 336073 336075
      339081 342083 345083 351088 354089 353093 351096 352098
      354101 353106 348111 344111 345115 350121 358129 362130
      364128 368121 369118 369112 367104 367101 364098 358093
      366090 363085 360077 362072 365070 369068 373071 373076
      373080 375083 379083 380080 381075 384072 387072 392068
      394064 397061 401058 405058 406056 403055 399055 397057
      392060 386063 382062 379063 371061 369058 371055 374054
      377055 381056 382053 390050 393044 395042 397044 406045
      410045 413043 418038 420035 424037 434047 437048 442048
      447046 449044
 0.01 415116 411113 409111 409106 409103 408098 406100 404107
      399106 397106 396111 391112 380115 377121 373127 374131
      377135 380142 382145 381149 385148 388148 390152 390155
      392157 393160 391162 388166 389171 395172 397171 401170
      403177 405176 404168 404165 401162 398163 394162 393159
      393156 392153 391150 394149 396147 395145 390143 387146
      383133 383129 385128 389124 391123 392119 397115 406117
      413118 415116
 0.01 407871 407864 407857 406850 402850 399853 397855 396860
      394865 394872 395878 397881 400883 404880 405876 407871
      407871
 0.01 401074 401072 399071 398071 397071 397073 397074 399074
      401074 401074
 0.01 396096 396094 394094 392093 392094 392096 392098 394098
      396096 396096
 0.01 393080 394078 392077 390077 388079 390080 392080 393080
      393080
 0.01 387088 388086 386084 384083 384086 386088 387088 387088
 0.01 377101 378098 378096 376098 377101 377101
 0.01 371001 371996 370994 369990 368987 366985 362984 353984
      347986 342989 338993 334999 332006 332016 332025 335032
      339036 345037 348035 349032 352026 357027 363023 363015
      362007 371001
 0.01 280020 280015 278012 271007 257000 249998 242998 235997
      232000 231003 230007 232011 235019 244031 248037 253043
      256045 260046 264044 264039 261033 258025 258018 263018
      267020 269022 274022 280020
 0.01 282968 281966 277965 274965 272966 270968 269972 268976
      266978 270980 273978 274976 276974 278972 280970 282968
 0.25 465622 472632 479642 482646 485653 483669 482675 482685
      480690 478692 474692 465690 461686 457681 453666 449650
      446641 445631 444629
 0.25 508251 507250 507248 506247 506249 506250 507251 508251
 0.25 424241 422240 422238 421238 419237 418236 416237 416238
      415239 417240 419241 420241 422241 424241
 0.25 424694 424687 423681 418676 410672 401671 395674 391677
      386683 381691 376699 368713 359728 336756 325767 312778
      304785 297790 291796 288798 285798 278802 271805 275811
      277813 281815 286816 291816 294815 298816 303822 307825
      307829 302836 300844 299848 299855 301858 300863 287877
      279892 273908 266924 264935 268937 271936 278932 282930
      286930 291936 296935 298933 296930 294928 294924 296920
      296912 299908 302905 308900 315894 319888 322887 326887
      329887 334885 338878 340873 344869 351864 356859 362852
      372840 377832 381825 390807 397789 402772 406764 409754
      414732 417724 421713 423703 424694
 0.25 253010 253008 251006 250006 249006 247005 245005 245006
      243006 242006 240006 238007 237007 238009 238010 240011
      241012 243012 245012 247012 249012 251011 252010 253010
 0.50 469664 467654 465647 463640 459634 456636 454643 453651
      456659 458665 463670 464671 468671 469664
 0.50 420690 419685 418683 413680 407678 400678 395679 392681
      387686 380698 366721 357734 348744 345749 342755 338760
      333765 323775 312784 308789 306793 308797 311798 319795
      325792 328792 329796 325803 320806 314810 316816 321821
      324827 315854 316858 320855 324850 328844 331828 343821
      348815 351814 354814 354817 351821 347825 340840 339847
      342856 346858 354857 362847 371835 378823 383811 389796
      397765 404734 410720 416705 419697 420690
 0.50 327872 325870 322869 319870 317873 313877 309878 308875
      304874 298876 294877 291879 287885 282896 279903 279910
      279914 281915 284916 285914 288909 293904 304897 308894
      313890 317885 321880 326877 327872
 1.00 386756 384741 383738 381738 377738 375730 375722 372718
      366727 363733 368734 368741 365748 360761 355772 351777
      346781 343785 344788 346789 354789 360791 366792 373791
      375792 373795 370801 368806 367813 368824 369827 370824
      373820 377814 381801 384788 385780 386774 385769 385765
      386756
 1.00 313884 310884 307886 302887 296888 293890 291893 288897
      288900 291899 295897 298895 302892 305890 309887 312884
      313884
 1.50 376805 376803 376802 376803 376805 376806 376805
 1.50 375810 375808 374808 374810 375811 375810
 1.50 369766 369764 369761 368761 367763 366764 365765 364767
      364768 363769 364770 365771 366771 367769 368768 369767
      369766


24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 522267 516240 510226 504215 497207 492204 487202 481202
      475204 470206 464205 461204 458202 455199 454195 454191
      458185 462181 463176 456177 453171 449173 449177 447179
      443181 436182 433182 429181 424185 420188 416189 408189
      404190 399192 393193 388193 380191 376188 370183 364181
      360182 360186 364187 368190 373195 377200 382209 393216
      398220 401224 389227 384230 386233 390239 393242 400246
      406247 417246 431250 441246 451244 462243 469245 476247
      484254 487256 488259 490266 493271 498276 507284 511285
      514284 518277
 0.01 489234 489231 488229 488228 487227 485226 484226 482227
      480225 480226 479228 480230 481231 482232 483233 484234
      486234 488235 489234
 0.01 494805 493787 491780 489775 485773 480774 470780 462785
      452789 446792 440793 427795 415797 408798 404801 400804
      396809 390816 376832 375835 371833 369836 367849 358854
      354857 357859 363859 365862 364867 364872 366878 370880
      375880 382880 386882 392881 394880 395884 395890 399897
      406901 419901 423900 425905 431916 434920 438923 443924
      448923 452920 454914 457909 457906 460903 463903 465901
      467898 468893 467890 468888 469880 467873 471860 474848
      479837 485829 490816 493810 494805
 0.01 442647 441639 438636 435634 431635 416646 407653 398659
      384669 359694 350701 342707 334712 328718 324720 320723
      314727 309733 302740 294747 288754 275766 265778 259784
      254791 250798 245808 243812 243818 244829 255842 257853
      257864 256869 258873 265880 280873 285872 287876 290879
      294879 299878 302876 308870 315864 320858 326851 332841
      335833 340826 346819 347825 350830 353831 354844 354846
      356846 359845 363842 364836 366830 369826 371823 372817
      377812 380812 384809 386806 391803 397798 399795 399791
      402786 406784 421773 424770 425769 428770 428774 432776
      437775 440773 442769 443762 442757 444750 445747 444743
      444735 441732 437731 434731 433729 433723 434718 433710
      432703 432698 434688 433682 431679 429676 431673 434668
      438658 441653 442647
 0.01 432198 431195 429195 428197 428199 428200 430200 432198
 0.01 415739 413736 411738 406743 399748 394753 383763 379768
      375774 367787 364794 362798 362800 363802 369797 375792
      380788 385782 392769 397765 402759 409746 415739
 0.01 373066 372063 370061 366059 364060 362062 358062 355070
      349074 345074 343076 345079 349079 354075 358070 361068
      364065 367064 369066 373066
 0.01 369052 368052 367050 367049 365047 363047 361049 360051
      359051 358053 357053 357056 359056 361056 363054 365054
      367054 368052 369052
 0.01 348974 345967 342966 339968 335973 331980 329988 327997
      325000 325005 327008 331009 334007 336004 339996 342989
      345982 348974 348974
 0.25 515269 515263 514258 512251 512245 511240 509235 504226
      499216 492209 488207 485207 479207 474208 467212 459215
      440215 432217 428218 424220 417227 416225 417220 416210
      416207 411206 406207 401207 392203 389207 391211 398216
      404219 406223 404230 401230 396231 394235 397240 400242
      405244 410244 420245 426246 430246 437241 448242 456241
      461240 464238 466237 466234 464229 466223 469220 478220
      483221 488223 491226 493230 504247 508262 511269 515269
 0.25 479241 479239 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 472234
      471236 471238 472239 473241 475242 476242 478242 479241
 0.25 487808 484796 481792 476791 468795 460800 453807 449810
      445812 435815 425819 424821 425824 421828 417837 427837
      431835 436833 440832 443834 446838 445843 443849 445854
      449852 453848 455845 457839 458834 461829 478820 483815
      487808
 0.25 458229 458228 456227 454227 453227 452228 451230 452231
      454232 455232 457232 457231 458229
 0.25 422658 420656 417656 411659 404663 398667 387677 378687
      361709 343730 335740 325749 316758 305768 261799 256805
      255812 255820 257826 261831 268835 268840 265849 265855
      267859 270863 276863 282858 287852 289845 292830 294822
      294818 292814 291811 291807 293801 296799 300800 306801
      321796 333802 341799 347796 352793 358786 364775 372764
      376758 381754 391743 395737 397731 400714 404700 417672
      420665 422658
 0.25 424708 424706 424705 422706 421709 420711 420714 421714
      422713 423712 423711 424708 424708
 0.25 413830 407827 401825 396829 391834 387840 383848 382851
      383857 385859 389861 393859 396856 401851 405845 409839
      412833 413830
 0.25 328809 325806 321808 319810 316815 315819 315826 317830
      321830 322825 324821 326816 327812 328809
 0.50 501235 500232 499230 498229 497227 497226 496223 495222
      493222 493225 494226 494228 495229 496231 497232 498234
      499234 499235 501235 501235
 0.50 486215 486212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477210 476210
      474211 473211 472213 472216 473217 475217 476217 477217
      478217 480217 482217 483217 484217 485216 486215
 0.50 477238 477237 475237 475238 477238 477238
 0.50 460238 460236 458235 457235 455235 454235 453236 451237
      453239 454239 456239 458239 460238 460238
 0.50 476807 476802 475800 472799 470798 468801 467802 464804
      462807 462810 462815 463817 466817 470816 471815 474813
      476810 476807
 0.50 429243 428238 423234 418234 414234 409235 405235 402235
      398236 399239 404242 409242 413242 418243 424244 427244
      429243
 0.50 413221 414217 411215 409214 405212 402211 399210 394209
      396212 401215 405217 408220 408227 411226 412224 413221
 0.50 412671 411666 407667 399671 392677 386683 367710 356722
      350730 345735 322759 311770 298781 296786 299789 306791
      310792 316793 326791 336791 346788 352784 358777 367763
      373756 378750 383744 389737 392730 393724 391720 389716
      390713 393704 397695 402688 408680 412671
 0.50 287829 287821 284815 279805 276804 273804 267807 264812
      264819 267823 271827 275830 273835 268846 268853 269856
      272857 276856 280852 285841 287829
 1.00 396684 396681 394682 390684 387688 384691 382695 380699
      378703 376708 379707 382703 385699 388696 390693 393689
      396685 396684
 1.00 384713 381711 377713 376711 375708 372712 368716 365722
      370719 374718 369725 361735 355736 349739 340749 332759
      312779 308783 309786 313786 322786 329786 336787 340787
      344785 347780 346776 343775 334776 335772 340768 345763
      353752 357745 361743 363745 367744 371739 378726 382719
      384713
 1.00 279840 279838 278836 277836 275838 273840 272843 271845
      272847 272848 274848 276847 276846 277845 278844 279842
      279841 279840
 1.50 353746 351743 348744 346746 345748 343750 341753 340755
      341758 344758 347756 348754 350751 352749 353746


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 012225
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
624 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 21Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE HEZ 30 WNW PIB 15 NE HBG 15 N MOB 20 WSW JKA 40 NNW KVOA
10 S KVKY 30 SE KDLP 15 NNE S58 20 SSW SRN 10 E KCRH 30 SSW KVBS
20 SSW BPT 25 N BPT 15 S DRI ACP 20 SE ESF 15 ENE HEZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE BAK 35 NW HTS PKB MGW 20 NNW W99 15 NNW HSP 15 ENE 6V3
15 N 1A6 40 NE GLW 15 N FTK 35 SSE BAK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE ARA 10 SE HDC 15 SE HSA 20 SSE KMIS 30 NNE KSPR
20 ESE KVBS 15 WNW 7R5 25 E CWF 15 NE ARA.


...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV... WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN IOWA
AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" PER THE LATEST GPS VALUES.
DAYTIME RANGE PER GPS VALUES. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE-BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED TO
AROUND 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT TO FAVOR CONTINUED FORWARD (DOWNWIND)
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...CELL MERGERS AND AND VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING
HAVE RESULTED IN 1-1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER RADAR IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE TOPOGRAPHY...ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS...AND THUS VERY
LOW FFG (1" OR LESS WITHIN 3 HOURS)...SOME EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN. THE LATEST SSEO GUIDANCE
IN FACT SHOWS AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES OF 3 HOURLY QPF EXCEEDING
3 HOURLY FFG WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA (BETWEEN 30-60%) THROUGH
02-04Z...OR PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY.


...UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHERN LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING
THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE 08-12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
AND EXPERIMENTAL RUNS...ALONG WITH WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE SPC WRF
TO SHOW 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES.  THE
0000 HI RES NSSL WRF DEVELOPED THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF SO WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAVING DEVELOPED INLAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LEAST RELIABLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION SHOULD BRING THE CELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THEN.

PETERSEN/HURLEY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 012117
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 21Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE HEZ 30 WNW PIB 15 NE HBG 15 N MOB 20 WSW JKA 40 NNW KVOA
10 S KVKY 30 SE KDLP 15 NNE S58 20 SSW SRN 10 E KCRH 30 SSW KVBS
20 SSW BPT 25 N BPT 15 S DRI ACP 20 SE ESF 15 ENE HEZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE BAK 35 NW HTS PKB MGW 20 NNW W99 15 NNW HSP 15 ENE 6V3
15 N 1A6 40 NE GLW 15 N FTK 35 SSE BAK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE ARA 10 SE HDC 15 SE HSA 20 SSE KMIS 30 NNE KSPR
20 ESE KVBS 15 WNW 7R5 25 E CWF 15 NE ARA.


...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN WV... WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN IOWA
AND SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" PER THE LATEST GPS VALUES.
DAYTIME RANGE PER GPS VALUES. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED
DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE-BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED TO
AROUND 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES...WITH SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT TO FAVOR CONTINUED FORWARD (DOWNWIND)
PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...CELL MERGERS AND AND VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING
HAVE RESULTED IN 1-1.5" AN HOUR RAIN RATES PER RADAR IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE TOPOGRAPHY...ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS...AND THUS VERY
LOW FFG (1" OR LESS WITHIN 3 HOURS)...SOME EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN. THE LATEST SSEO GUIDANCE
IN FACT SHOWS AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES OF 3 HOURLY QPF EXCEEDING
3 HOURLY FFG WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA (BETWEEN 30-60%) THROUGH
02-04Z...OR PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY.


...UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHERN LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING
THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE 08-12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
AND EXPERIMENTAL RUNS...ALONG WITH WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE SPC WRF
TO SHOW 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES.  THE
0000 HI RES NSSL WRF DEVELOPED THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF SO WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAVING DEVELOPED INLAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LEAST RELIABLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION SHOULD BRING THE CELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THEN.

PETERSEN/HURLEY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 012049
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 2/0000 UTC THRU MAY 5/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

......LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA...TN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTS IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEEP LAYER
JET.  AS THIS OCCURS A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND OF 700 MB
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IN THE
COUPLED 300 MB JET REGION AND THEN MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...INCLUDING ALREADY WET LOUISIANA...AND THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST MON.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN LA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MON WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES----ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA OVERHEAD IN THE COUPLED JET
REGION IN THE SOUTHEAST MON.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WHICH HAD A SIMILAR
AXIS/ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL.
THE 12Z NAM WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH ITS PRECIP AXIS IN
AR/WESTERN TN AND WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING CONSIDERING ITS
FRONTAL AXIS/ORIENTATION WAS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS.

IN THE CAROLINAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CONFLUENT LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MEAN INDICATING 1.5-1.75 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.  MANUAL QPF USED THE HIGHER ECMWF/CANADIAN REGION GEM
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE PLUS FAVORED PEAK
PERIOD FOR INSTABILITY.

...LOWER LAKES---OH/PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND...

AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OHIO INTO PA BY MON
MORNING AND REFORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MON. A CORRESPONDING
700 MB WAVE CROSSES FURTHER NORTH AND LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE WAVE WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON.
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A STRIPE OF HALF TO ONE INCH
FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND INTERIOR NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED. THIS IS NORTH OF THE NAM AXIS
OF QPF WITH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM JOINING THE GFS/UKMET WITH
AN AXIS FURTHER NORTH...ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGER 700 MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE.

...SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  ENHANCED 700 MB MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF 70-90 PERCENT
ARE FCST TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE RANGES OF SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE
SYNOPTIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE VALLEY
SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
MON MORNING AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
WEAKEN.  AN UPTICK IN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION MON.  GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEG C/KM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM MON...WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL AND SREF MEAN BLEND.

DAYS 2/3...


***CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE EAST COAST***

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RATHER
SLOWLY AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT PWS TO 1.5 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP PW GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT.  MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (DAY 2)
IN CONJUNCTION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE ASCENT.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DIFFERING MORE THAN USUAL WITH NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AROUND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE TIMING OF THESE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AND THIS LEADS TO A QPF FORECAST THAT HAS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN RESPECT TO MESOSCALE DETAILS.  THE ENSEMBLE
BIASED CORRECTED MODEL WAS USED AS A BASELINE FOR QPF, ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
THAT WAS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD ALSO HAVE THESE
TYPE OF AMOUNTS.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 2 WAS MAINTAINED
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  BY DAY 3, THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND NO EXCESSIVE AREAS ARE NOTED DURING THIS
TIME.


***GREAT LAKE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST***

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. BY MIDWEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA CANADA IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.  THE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND THERMAL ZONE THOUGH WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
SEPARATE FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  AS A RESULT, MAINLY LIGHT QPF CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CONVECTIVE
SHOWER ACTIVITY.


***PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA***

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WEST OF THE COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD EVOLVING INTO A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AS PART OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.   LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 442630 454639 464653 469659 471663 474663 486665 491670
      496675 498678 497686 495696 493705 491714 490718 488720
      477731 475742 470750 463762 460763 456766 453773 448789
      445797 444805 440820 436835 434845 435857 435871 434876
      434883 433897 430900 427905 425909 422912 418912 414914
      412917 409919 408922 409926 412926 422919 428918 429916
      433918 438923 440925 439929 432935 429936 426940 428945
      426947 422947 419950 416954 409956 402959 395959 385959
      380959 379962 379965 382979 385988 387995 392011 388032
      387037 385039 378042 373040 367037 364031 361023 358007
      353002 352999 349998 345001 340006 332019 327024 321029
      314033 308035 294038 288041 281041 274039 268038 257029
      252024 252016 248009 242006 234002 233999 232993 231987
      235981 240976 245972 255964 258958 261954 261948 260913
      260903 264897 269890 274884 277877 282872 284868 284863
      285857 285847 281842 268833 258828 254824 251818 249810
      248804 251803 258797 264794 268792 271794 278796 291800
      298801 305799 308797 312795 318791 321784 324778 328766
      331759 335752 345739 361716 369702 376691 380677 381670
      383662 384656 387652 393645
 0.01 492005 489990 486977 482974 480972 477972 472972 469972
      467974 460973 454974 450976 445976 433980 426987 419996
      417001 416008 416012 418015 421020 425023 428027 431040
      433045 434047 437047 448044 453044 457040 464033 469026
      468023 469021 471019 475016 478015 481015 485013 487011
      490008 492005
 0.01 459235 457231 454233 450232 450227 450223 452220 450219
      448221 447228 446234 449237 453236 457236 459235
 0.01 437236 435231 436227 427220 420219 418217 415213 414207
      412202 408203 404204 401200 397194 392194 388192 387188
      390185 389180 395182 396176 401167 406163 408168 412167
      413169 417161 419158 417153 414148 410145 405146 402141
      399138 394141 388139 386135 388129 391126 398124 399127
      403130 407130 406124 401117 409110 409103 406100 403106
      401106 399103 396099 397092 401083 402080 402075 401067
      399063 397056 395052 389050 383049 379046 373047 367047
      363049 359053 356051 355044 353042 348041 344043 341046
      337050 336053 332053 329053 327055 328057 332058 336064
      335070 334076 332081 332087 334092 340113 343123 344128
      346132 348134 348138 348141 350142 351144 355144 353141
      355138 361139 364142 368142 370147 373150 375152 373154
      371156 369153 369149 367148 363150 360153 354148 350155
      355160 356162 359163 363162 368166 369172 371172 377171
      382170 385174 384177 384181 383185 380184 378181 378175
      374177 368177 361176 362172 364171 363168 359169 359181
      359186 361190 367196 376201 380206 384208 389211 395214
      405219 410219 413222 411227 406229 401227 399230 401235
      405238 409239 412237 417238 421237 426240 431240 435239
      437236
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 389093 387094
      385095 385097 383096 382097 383098 385097 385099 386102
      388104 389105 391105 392103
 0.01 385111 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384111 385111
      385111
 0.01 391890 386883 383879 380884 374891 369896 366901 364906
      363916 360926 357936 354946 354952 352956 356956 359953
      362950 366949 375949 373945 375943 381922 381919 379916
      378916 375918 375916 376912 376909 379907 382904 385900
      391890
 0.01 377110 377103 374098 374092 371087 371080 371077 369075
      366075 363079 360080 361083 364086 369089 372093 368096
      366097 368099 371104 372109 369118 371123 373118 373114
      374111 376111 377110
 0.01 376060 375056 374054 368055 365054 361056 357055 356058
      352062 350068 349073 352073 355071 358073 360071 358069
      359062 359058 363061 368058 373059 376060
 0.01 356113 356111 355109 353111 354113 355113 356113
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 353960 354958 352956 350958 350960 352962 353960
 0.25 482690 481685 480680 475676 469672 464670 453667 442663
      437661 432657 424650 421650 417651 412651 408651 405653
      402657 397663 394669 387682 376706 369718 362727 353748
      344758 341764 337772 337780 335786 329797 325802 321806
      314812 304821 304824 307827 311829 317833 320838 320845
      318853 316859 312865 305873 288889 281897 275908 273915
      273923 271942 269970 270973 271978 271980 270982 267982
      264984 262984 260982 261975 259971 256972 250979 249982
      250986 252992 255000 259005 266014 273017 278019 290021
      295020 300017 308009 312003 315998 317991 317983 318975
      321967 333945 338935 344924 350913 355900 358894 361888
      367873 377848 384836 387831 390830 391833 395844 395860
      397868 400875 404880 410885 413886 416884 420878 422871
      422862 434804 438791 442773 444764 447758 450752 453747
      461738 468730 473719 478704 482690
 0.25 399749 399746 397745 395745 394747 395750 395752 396752
      398753 399751 399749 399749
 0.25 394080 393079 393078 392076 390077 389077 389079 390080
      391081 393081 394080
 0.25 381076 381074 380071 378070 376071 376073 375075 376077
      377078 379077 381076
 0.50 472698 472691 470687 465681 460678 455675 448672 444673
      440675 436679 435688 435694 434699 432707 427722 426733
      424740 423749 423754 425759 425763 423766 418772 415779
      414788 415794 414799 412808 414813 416816 418821 418827
      420827 420822 422819 423809 424801 433787 435780 435769
      435758 439756 442750 446744 451736 456730 464720 468714
      470709 472698
 0.50 423672 421666 419662 416659 411658 406660 402664 397671
      393680 389689 381707 371725 367734 366739 370742 374742
      378741 383739 387736 396719 401711 404707 410706 419701
      422697 422692 423680 423672
 0.50 413849 414847 413844 413842 412840 411838 410837 409836
      407838 408840 408843 409845 409846 410847 411849 412849
      413850 413849
 0.50 390806 391801 390796 387790 384789 381790 375792 370800
      360807 345823 336828 333833 331839 330846 327852 321862
      314869 307877 298885 290891 286895 284900 281912 279927
      276940 276947 277954 280966 277971 275973 275977 274981
      270985 271987 274988 279986 283983 286978 292977 299974
      304971 307968 312957 317949 325939 331929 342911 353889
      358881 364869 372844 375834 379821 383817 387815 390810
      390806
 0.50 368773 367768 365764 359761 356759 352760 346765 344769
      344773 342781 341790 343794 346795 350793 353791 358787
      363782 367775 368773
 0.50 306998 304996 300997 298994 295989 291991 290997 289002
      288008 293009 296006 298004 304002 306998 306998
 0.50 277009 276006 275004 273001 271999 269998 266996 263998
      264002 265005 266007 268009 271010 274010 277009
 0.50 255988 255986 253984 253986 253988 255989 255988
 1.00 412673 411667 409667 406670 403674 401678 399683 399688
      402692 405691 408688 410684 412680 412675 412673
 1.00 365840 364836 360836 353838 341845 337850 334856 331863
      328869 323874 318879 308886 298897 295901 292908 290917
      288923 284937 283946 286952 292953 299951 305947 309941
      316929 324917 331908 338894 343881 351868 357857 365840
 1.00 353773 354771 353769 351769 350771 350773 352775 353773
      353773
 1.50 321902 317902 313904 306909 302916 297922 294931 292936
      292940 296941 299940 305933 310926 313918 317909 321902

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 474619 481626 487636 492645 498656 503667 507680 508688
      507695 505701 501703 498706 492709 484715 465725 459727
      455730 450729 446727 444725 443718 446712 449709 451703
      449697 442686 439673 436659 434645 435632
 0.01 521269 521261 519255 514245 507234 501224 496221 493217
      494213 492210 487207 467210 457211 447212 440211 433209
      425201 427193 430188 431182 432173 431168 424166 422163
      421158 422155 420152 418152 416157 415166 415170 416173
      417180 420185 420192 418196 416198 412200 410203 406208
      400207 398203 391200 381194 378197 378200 381204 386207
      394215 405222 405226 401229 398233 397237 398240 400243
      403244 409245 416247 421247 441245 447245 452248 458250
      463250 469251 473252 479253 485255 497276 505284 508287
      510285 514286 516285
 0.01 520829 520817 519813 516811 511807 507807 502806 500798
      495793 489790 483793 474804 466818 460831 454847 451866
      449887 449910 450916 451920 453930 457935 463934 469929
      472920 475927 481932 485933 489932 492927 494918 495911
      498909 502908 504906 507903 508898 510896 511891 513883
      515861 515851 516848 516842 520829
 0.01 493241 493232 492225 489222 483221 477219 473220 465226
      461226 455226 451228 446228 442230 445232 448231 457234
      462236 468238 471235 472231 474229 479229 483232 490240
      493241
 0.01 463178 463176 461175 458177 454176 453171 451170 450170
      449175 450178 450183 450185 451188 453188 455186 457184
      459182 461180 463178
 0.01 443232 442230 440230 438231 439233 441233 443232
 0.01 436681 435672 433667 429656 425652 420650 411646 409645
      405646 399650 389658 385662 382667 378675 375680 374685
      370695 367707 365712 362718 355728 347738 333753 325760
      317765 308772 299778 290784 285787 278790 255792 248795
      248799 252804 256804 262809 270823 293832 294837 291841
      287845 286852 284862 282869 280873 277877 274882 271887
      270892 269898 266902 260911 254923 249933 246937 245943
      244955 242969 243974 246980 250982 255988 265990 271989
      275987 281986 285983 292975 294971 295965 298952 302941
      308929 315922 330906 342891 350883 356874 363864 366865
      366869 364872 366875 367883 369888 369891 373891 379891
      383888 386884 388880 388877 389874 389856 388840 387832
      388825 395815 406792 410782 413771 417758 421747 426737
      429721 435693 436681
 0.01 449044 449033 449027 448025 448013 448001 448995 446992
      442987 435984 428982 422984 415984 411991 408999 404005
      398009 389011 385006 378006 376008 376012 375017 374023
      370027 374044 375047 371048 362046 358046 355048 351052
      348054 348057 352063 352069 349072 340071 336073 336075
      339081 342083 345083 351088 354089 353093 351096 352098
      354101 353106 348111 344111 345115 350121 358129 362130
      364128 368121 369118 369112 367104 367101 364098 358093
      366090 363085 360077 362072 365070 369068 373071 373076
      373080 375083 379083 380080 381075 384072 387072 392068
      394064 397061 401058 405058 406056 403055 399055 397057
      392060 386063 382062 379063 371061 369058 371055 374054
      377055 381056 382053 390050 393044 395042 397044 406045
      410045 413043 418038 420035 424037 434047 437048 442048
      447046 449044
 0.01 415116 411113 409111 409106 409103 408098 406100 404107
      399106 397106 396111 391112 380115 377121 373127 374131
      377135 380142 382145 381149 385148 388148 390152 390155
      392157 393160 391162 388166 389171 395172 397171 401170
      403177 405176 404168 404165 401162 398163 394162 393159
      393156 392153 391150 394149 396147 395145 390143 387146
      383133 383129 385128 389124 391123 392119 397115 406117
      413118 415116
 0.01 407871 407864 407857 406850 402850 399853 397855 396860
      394865 394872 395878 397881 400883 404880 405876 407871
      407871
 0.01 401074 401072 399071 398071 397071 397073 397074 399074
      401074 401074
 0.01 396096 396094 394094 392093 392094 392096 392098 394098
      396096 396096
 0.01 393080 394078 392077 390077 388079 390080 392080 393080
      393080
 0.01 387088 388086 386084 384083 384086 386088 387088 387088
 0.01 377101 378098 378096 376098 377101 377101
 0.01 371001 371996 370994 369990 368987 366985 362984 353984
      347986 342989 338993 334999 332006 332016 332025 335032
      339036 345037 348035 349032 352026 357027 363023 363015
      362007 371001
 0.01 280020 280015 278012 271007 257000 249998 242998 235997
      232000 231003 230007 232011 235019 244031 248037 253043
      256045 260046 264044 264039 261033 258025 258018 263018
      267020 269022 274022 280020
 0.01 282968 281966 277965 274965 272966 270968 269972 268976
      266978 270980 273978 274976 276974 278972 280970 282968
 0.25 465622 472632 479642 482646 485653 483669 482675 482685
      480690 478692 474692 465690 461686 457681 453666 449650
      446641 445631 444629
 0.25 508251 507250 507248 506247 506249 506250 507251 508251
 0.25 424241 422240 422238 421238 419237 418236 416237 416238
      415239 417240 419241 420241 422241 424241
 0.25 424694 424687 423681 418676 410672 401671 395674 391677
      386683 381691 376699 368713 359728 336756 325767 312778
      304785 297790 291796 288798 285798 278802 271805 275811
      277813 281815 286816 291816 294815 298816 303822 307825
      307829 302836 300844 299848 299855 301858 300863 287877
      279892 273908 266924 264935 268937 271936 278932 282930
      286930 291936 296935 298933 296930 294928 294924 296920
      296912 299908 302905 308900 315894 319888 322887 326887
      329887 334885 338878 340873 344869 351864 356859 362852
      372840 377832 381825 390807 397789 402772 406764 409754
      414732 417724 421713 423703 424694
 0.25 253010 253008 251006 250006 249006 247005 245005 245006
      243006 242006 240006 238007 237007 238009 238010 240011
      241012 243012 245012 247012 249012 251011 252010 253010
 0.50 469664 467654 465647 463640 459634 456636 454643 453651
      456659 458665 463670 464671 468671 469664
 0.50 420690 419685 418683 413680 407678 400678 395679 392681
      387686 380698 366721 357734 348744 345749 342755 338760
      333765 323775 312784 308789 306793 308797 311798 319795
      325792 328792 329796 325803 320806 314810 316816 321821
      324827 315854 316858 320855 324850 328844 331828 343821
      348815 351814 354814 354817 351821 347825 340840 339847
      342856 346858 354857 362847 371835 378823 383811 389796
      397765 404734 410720 416705 419697 420690
 0.50 327872 325870 322869 319870 317873 313877 309878 308875
      304874 298876 294877 291879 287885 282896 279903 279910
      279914 281915 284916 285914 288909 293904 304897 308894
      313890 317885 321880 326877 327872
 1.00 386756 384741 383738 381738 377738 375730 375722 372718
      366727 363733 368734 368741 365748 360761 355772 351777
      346781 343785 344788 346789 354789 360791 366792 373791
      375792 373795 370801 368806 367813 368824 369827 370824
      373820 377814 381801 384788 385780 386774 385769 385765
      386756
 1.00 313884 310884 307886 302887 296888 293890 291893 288897
      288900 291899 295897 298895 302892 305890 309887 312884
      313884
 1.50 376805 376803 376802 376803 376805 376806 376805
 1.50 375810 375808 374808 374810 375811 375810
 1.50 369766 369764 369761 368761 367763 366764 365765 364767
      364768 363769 364770 365771 366771 367769 368768 369767
      369766

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 522267 516240 510226 504215 497207 492204 487202 481202
      475204 470206 464205 461204 458202 455199 454195 454191
      458185 462181 463176 456177 453171 449173 449177 447179
      443181 436182 433182 429181 424185 420188 416189 408189
      404190 399192 393193 388193 380191 376188 370183 364181
      360182 360186 364187 368190 373195 377200 382209 393216
      398220 401224 389227 384230 386233 390239 393242 400246
      406247 417246 431250 441246 451244 462243 469245 476247
      484254 487256 488259 490266 493271 498276 507284 511285
      514284 518277
 0.01 489234 489231 488229 488228 487227 485226 484226 482227
      480225 480226 479228 480230 481231 482232 483233 484234
      486234 488235 489234
 0.01 494805 493787 491780 489775 485773 480774 470780 462785
      452789 446792 440793 427795 415797 408798 404801 400804
      396809 390816 376832 375835 371833 369836 367849 358854
      354857 357859 363859 365862 364867 364872 366878 370880
      375880 382880 386882 392881 394880 395884 395890 399897
      406901 419901 423900 425905 431916 434920 438923 443924
      448923 452920 454914 457909 457906 460903 463903 465901
      467898 468893 467890 468888 469880 467873 471860 474848
      479837 485829 490816 493810 494805
 0.01 442647 441639 438636 435634 431635 416646 407653 398659
      384669 359694 350701 342707 334712 328718 324720 320723
      314727 309733 302740 294747 288754 275766 265778 259784
      254791 250798 245808 243812 243818 244829 255842 257853
      257864 256869 258873 265880 280873 285872 287876 290879
      294879 299878 302876 308870 315864 320858 326851 332841
      335833 340826 346819 347825 350830 353831 354844 354846
      356846 359845 363842 364836 366830 369826 371823 372817
      377812 380812 384809 386806 391803 397798 399795 399791
      402786 406784 421773 424770 425769 428770 428774 432776
      437775 440773 442769 443762 442757 444750 445747 444743
      444735 441732 437731 434731 433729 433723 434718 433710
      432703 432698 434688 433682 431679 429676 431673 434668
      438658 441653 442647
 0.01 432198 431195 429195 428197 428199 428200 430200 432198
 0.01 415739 413736 411738 406743 399748 394753 383763 379768
      375774 367787 364794 362798 362800 363802 369797 375792
      380788 385782 392769 397765 402759 409746 415739
 0.01 373066 372063 370061 366059 364060 362062 358062 355070
      349074 345074 343076 345079 349079 354075 358070 361068
      364065 367064 369066 373066
 0.01 369052 368052 367050 367049 365047 363047 361049 360051
      359051 358053 357053 357056 359056 361056 363054 365054
      367054 368052 369052
 0.01 348974 345967 342966 339968 335973 331980 329988 327997
      325000 325005 327008 331009 334007 336004 339996 342989
      345982 348974 348974
 0.25 515269 515263 514258 512251 512245 511240 509235 504226
      499216 492209 488207 485207 479207 474208 467212 459215
      440215 432217 428218 424220 417227 416225 417220 416210
      416207 411206 406207 401207 392203 389207 391211 398216
      404219 406223 404230 401230 396231 394235 397240 400242
      405244 410244 420245 426246 430246 437241 448242 456241
      461240 464238 466237 466234 464229 466223 469220 478220
      483221 488223 491226 493230 504247 508262 511269 515269
 0.25 479241 479239 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 472234
      471236 471238 472239 473241 475242 476242 478242 479241
 0.25 487808 484796 481792 476791 468795 460800 453807 449810
      445812 435815 425819 424821 425824 421828 417837 427837
      431835 436833 440832 443834 446838 445843 443849 445854
      449852 453848 455845 457839 458834 461829 478820 483815
      487808
 0.25 458229 458228 456227 454227 453227 452228 451230 452231
      454232 455232 457232 457231 458229
 0.25 422658 420656 417656 411659 404663 398667 387677 378687
      361709 343730 335740 325749 316758 305768 261799 256805
      255812 255820 257826 261831 268835 268840 265849 265855
      267859 270863 276863 282858 287852 289845 292830 294822
      294818 292814 291811 291807 293801 296799 300800 306801
      321796 333802 341799 347796 352793 358786 364775 372764
      376758 381754 391743 395737 397731 400714 404700 417672
      420665 422658
 0.25 424708 424706 424705 422706 421709 420711 420714 421714
      422713 423712 423711 424708 424708
 0.25 413830 407827 401825 396829 391834 387840 383848 382851
      383857 385859 389861 393859 396856 401851 405845 409839
      412833 413830
 0.25 328809 325806 321808 319810 316815 315819 315826 317830
      321830 322825 324821 326816 327812 328809
 0.50 501235 500232 499230 498229 497227 497226 496223 495222
      493222 493225 494226 494228 495229 496231 497232 498234
      499234 499235 501235 501235
 0.50 486215 486212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477210 476210
      474211 473211 472213 472216 473217 475217 476217 477217
      478217 480217 482217 483217 484217 485216 486215
 0.50 477238 477237 475237 475238 477238 477238
 0.50 460238 460236 458235 457235 455235 454235 453236 451237
      453239 454239 456239 458239 460238 460238
 0.50 476807 476802 475800 472799 470798 468801 467802 464804
      462807 462810 462815 463817 466817 470816 471815 474813
      476810 476807
 0.50 429243 428238 423234 418234 414234 409235 405235 402235
      398236 399239 404242 409242 413242 418243 424244 427244
      429243
 0.50 413221 414217 411215 409214 405212 402211 399210 394209
      396212 401215 405217 408220 408227 411226 412224 413221
 0.50 412671 411666 407667 399671 392677 386683 367710 356722
      350730 345735 322759 311770 298781 296786 299789 306791
      310792 316793 326791 336791 346788 352784 358777 367763
      373756 378750 383744 389737 392730 393724 391720 389716
      390713 393704 397695 402688 408680 412671
 0.50 287829 287821 284815 279805 276804 273804 267807 264812
      264819 267823 271827 275830 273835 268846 268853 269856
      272857 276856 280852 285841 287829
 1.00 396684 396681 394682 390684 387688 384691 382695 380699
      378703 376708 379707 382703 385699 388696 390693 393689
      396685 396684
 1.00 384713 381711 377713 376711 375708 372712 368716 365722
      370719 374718 369725 361735 355736 349739 340749 332759
      312779 308783 309786 313786 322786 329786 336787 340787
      344785 347780 346776 343775 334776 335772 340768 345763
      353752 357745 361743 363745 367744 371739 378726 382719
      384713
 1.00 279840 279838 278836 277836 275838 273840 272843 271845
      272847 272848 274848 276847 276846 277845 278844 279842
      279841 279840
 1.50 353746 351743 348744 346746 345748 343750 341753 340755
      341758 344758 347756 348754 350751 352749 353746


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 011905
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 00Z MON MAY 02 2016 - 00Z THU MAY 05 2016


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4-INCHES OR MORE TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SAN JUANS.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO
ENCOURAGE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MON.  SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BY TUE AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAYS 2/3...

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING AND/OR SNOW IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 02/0000 UTC THRU MAY 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

......LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA...TN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTS IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEEP LAYER
JET.  AS THIS OCCURS A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND OF 700 MB
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IN THE
COUPLED 300 MB JET REGION AND THEN MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...INCLUDING ALREADY WET LOUISIANA...AND THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST MON.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN LA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MON WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES----ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA OVERHEAD IN THE COUPLED JET
REGION IN THE SOUTHEAST MON.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WHICH HAD A SIMILAR
AXIS/ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL.
THE 12Z NAM WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH ITS PRECIP AXIS IN
AR/WESTERN TN AND WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING CONSIDERING ITS
FRONTAL AXIS/ORIENTATION WAS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS.

IN THE CAROLINAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CONFLUENT LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MEAN INDICATING 1.5-1.75 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.  MANUAL QPF USED THE HIGHER ECMWF/CANADIAN REGION GEM
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE PLUS FAVORED PEAK
PERIOD FOR INSTABILITY.

...LOWER LAKES---OH/PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND...

AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OHIO INTO PA BY MON
MORNING AND REFORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MON. A CORRESPONDING
700 MB WAVE CROSSES FURTHER NORTH AND LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE WAVE WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON.
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A STRIPE OF HALF TO ONE INCH
FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND INTERIOR NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED. THIS IS NORTH OF THE NAM AXIS
OF QPF WITH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM JOINING THE GFS/UKMET WITH
AN AXIS FURTHER NORTH...ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGER 700 MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE.

...SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  ENHANCED 700 MB MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF 70-90 PERCENT
ARE FCST TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE RANGES OF SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE
SYNOPTIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE VALLEY
SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
MON MORNING AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
WEAKEN.  AN UPTICK IN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION MON.  GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEG C/KM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM MON...WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL AND SREF MEAN BLEND.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 442630 454639 464653 469659 471663 474663 486665 491670
      496675 498678 497686 495696 493705 491714 490718 488720
      477731 475742 470750 463762 460763 456766 453773 448789
      445797 444805 440820 436835 434845 435857 435871 434876
      434883 433897 430900 427905 425909 422912 418912 414914
      412917 409919 408922 409926 412926 422919 428918 429916
      433918 438923 440925 439929 432935 429936 426940 428945
      426947 422947 419950 416954 409956 402959 395959 385959
      380959 379962 379965 382979 385988 387995 392011 388032
      387037 385039 378042 373040 367037 364031 361023 358007
      353002 352999 349998 345001 340006 332019 327024 321029
      314033 308035 294038 288041 281041 274039 268038 257029
      252024 252016 248009 242006 234002 233999 232993 231987
      235981 240976 245972 255964 258958 261954 261948 260913
      260903 264897 269890 274884 277877 282872 284868 284863
      285857 285847 281842 268833 258828 254824 251818 249810
      248804 251803 258797 264794 268792 271794 278796 291800
      298801 305799 308797 312795 318791 321784 324778 328766
      331759 335752 345739 361716 369702 376691 380677 381670
      383662 384656 387652 393645
 0.01 492005 489990 486977 482974 480972 477972 472972 469972
      467974 460973 454974 450976 445976 433980 426987 419996
      417001 416008 416012 418015 421020 425023 428027 431040
      433045 434047 437047 448044 453044 457040 464033 469026
      468023 469021 471019 475016 478015 481015 485013 487011
      490008 492005
 0.01 459235 457231 454233 450232 450227 450223 452220 450219
      448221 447228 446234 449237 453236 457236 459235
 0.01 437236 435231 436227 427220 420219 418217 415213 414207
      412202 408203 404204 401200 397194 392194 388192 387188
      390185 389180 395182 396176 401167 406163 408168 412167
      413169 417161 419158 417153 414148 410145 405146 402141
      399138 394141 388139 386135 388129 391126 398124 399127
      403130 407130 406124 401117 409110 409103 406100 403106
      401106 399103 396099 397092 401083 402080 402075 401067
      399063 397056 395052 389050 383049 379046 373047 367047
      363049 359053 356051 355044 353042 348041 344043 341046
      337050 336053 332053 329053 327055 328057 332058 336064
      335070 334076 332081 332087 334092 340113 343123 344128
      346132 348134 348138 348141 350142 351144 355144 353141
      355138 361139 364142 368142 370147 373150 375152 373154
      371156 369153 369149 367148 363150 360153 354148 350155
      355160 356162 359163 363162 368166 369172 371172 377171
      382170 385174 384177 384181 383185 380184 378181 378175
      374177 368177 361176 362172 364171 363168 359169 359181
      359186 361190 367196 376201 380206 384208 389211 395214
      405219 410219 413222 411227 406229 401227 399230 401235
      405238 409239 412237 417238 421237 426240 431240 435239
      437236
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 389093 387094
      385095 385097 383096 382097 383098 385097 385099 386102
      388104 389105 391105 392103
 0.01 385111 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384111 385111
      385111
 0.01 391890 386883 383879 380884 374891 369896 366901 364906
      363916 360926 357936 354946 354952 352956 356956 359953
      362950 366949 375949 373945 375943 381922 381919 379916
      378916 375918 375916 376912 376909 379907 382904 385900
      391890
 0.01 377110 377103 374098 374092 371087 371080 371077 369075
      366075 363079 360080 361083 364086 369089 372093 368096
      366097 368099 371104 372109 369118 371123 373118 373114
      374111 376111 377110
 0.01 376060 375056 374054 368055 365054 361056 357055 356058
      352062 350068 349073 352073 355071 358073 360071 358069
      359062 359058 363061 368058 373059 376060
 0.01 356113 356111 355109 353111 354113 355113 356113
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 353960 354958 352956 350958 350960 352962 353960
 0.25 482690 481685 480680 475676 469672 464670 453667 442663
      437661 432657 424650 421650 417651 412651 408651 405653
      402657 397663 394669 387682 376706 369718 362727 353748
      344758 341764 337772 337780 335786 329797 325802 321806
      314812 304821 304824 307827 311829 317833 320838 320845
      318853 316859 312865 305873 288889 281897 275908 273915
      273923 271942 269970 270973 271978 271980 270982 267982
      264984 262984 260982 261975 259971 256972 250979 249982
      250986 252992 255000 259005 266014 273017 278019 290021
      295020 300017 308009 312003 315998 317991 317983 318975
      321967 333945 338935 344924 350913 355900 358894 361888
      367873 377848 384836 387831 390830 391833 395844 395860
      397868 400875 404880 410885 413886 416884 420878 422871
      422862 434804 438791 442773 444764 447758 450752 453747
      461738 468730 473719 478704 482690
 0.25 399749 399746 397745 395745 394747 395750 395752 396752
      398753 399751 399749 399749
 0.25 394080 393079 393078 392076 390077 389077 389079 390080
      391081 393081 394080
 0.25 381076 381074 380071 378070 376071 376073 375075 376077
      377078 379077 381076
 0.50 472698 472691 470687 465681 460678 455675 448672 444673
      440675 436679 435688 435694 434699 432707 427722 426733
      424740 423749 423754 425759 425763 423766 418772 415779
      414788 415794 414799 412808 414813 416816 418821 418827
      420827 420822 422819 423809 424801 433787 435780 435769
      435758 439756 442750 446744 451736 456730 464720 468714
      470709 472698
 0.50 423672 421666 419662 416659 411658 406660 402664 397671
      393680 389689 381707 371725 367734 366739 370742 374742
      378741 383739 387736 396719 401711 404707 410706 419701
      422697 422692 423680 423672
 0.50 413849 414847 413844 413842 412840 411838 410837 409836
      407838 408840 408843 409845 409846 410847 411849 412849
      413850 413849
 0.50 390806 391801 390796 387790 384789 381790 375792 370800
      360807 345823 336828 333833 331839 330846 327852 321862
      314869 307877 298885 290891 286895 284900 281912 279927
      276940 276947 277954 280966 277971 275973 275977 274981
      270985 271987 274988 279986 283983 286978 292977 299974
      304971 307968 312957 317949 325939 331929 342911 353889
      358881 364869 372844 375834 379821 383817 387815 390810
      390806
 0.50 368773 367768 365764 359761 356759 352760 346765 344769
      344773 342781 341790 343794 346795 350793 353791 358787
      363782 367775 368773
 0.50 306998 304996 300997 298994 295989 291991 290997 289002
      288008 293009 296006 298004 304002 306998 306998
 0.50 277009 276006 275004 273001 271999 269998 266996 263998
      264002 265005 266007 268009 271010 274010 277009
 0.50 255988 255986 253984 253986 253988 255989 255988
 1.00 412673 411667 409667 406670 403674 401678 399683 399688
      402692 405691 408688 410684 412680 412675 412673
 1.00 365840 364836 360836 353838 341845 337850 334856 331863
      328869 323874 318879 308886 298897 295901 292908 290917
      288923 284937 283946 286952 292953 299951 305947 309941
      316929 324917 331908 338894 343881 351868 357857 365840
 1.00 353773 354771 353769 351769 350771 350773 352775 353773
      353773
 1.50 321902 317902 313904 306909 302916 297922 294931 292936
      292940 296941 299940 305933 310926 313918 317909 321902

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 011321
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
921 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 15Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE HEZ 30 WNW PIB 15 NE HBG 15 N MOB 20 WSW JKA 40 NNW KVOA
10 S KVKY 30 SE KDLP 15 NNE S58 20 SSW SRN 10 E KCRH 30 SSW KVBS
20 SSW BPT 25 N BPT 15 S DRI ACP 20 SE ESF 15 ENE HEZ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE ARA 10 SE HDC 15 SE HSA 20 SSE KMIS 30 NNE KSPR
20 ESE KVBS 15 WNW 7R5 25 E CWF 15 NE ARA.


UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO SOUTHERN LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSSING
THE REGION...AS SHOWN IN THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.

THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE 08-12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
AND EXPERIMENTAL RUNS...ALONG WITH WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE SPC WRF
TO SHOW 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES.  THE
0000 HI RES NSSL WRF DEVELOPED THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF SO WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAVING DEVELOPED INLAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LEAST RELIABLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES---FLOODING
SHOULD OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING CELLS PRODUCE 2" PER HOUR RATES.
SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION SHOULD BRING THE CELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN THEN.

PETERSEN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011006
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
605 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/1200 UTC THRU MAY 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WILL
ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE USED FOR DETAILS TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS RESULTS IN A BROAD REGION OF .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TOTALS---AS PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IN MANY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY---EQUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PW VALUES 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER---WITH SUCH SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS RESULTING IN THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED PRIMARILY.

SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE LA COAST AND UPPER TX COAST DAY 1.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL
AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.  SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS
USED PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
MS---ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.  WITH THE
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AT
THE MOMENT---GIVEN NO CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS---DAY 1
QPF KEPT PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HERE.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST---BECOMING
MORE SHEARED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN---THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMMB ARE SHOWING A MORE
DEFINED STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  CAN NOT SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
HI RES DETAIL IS NOT POSSIBLE---BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLER
SCALE OF THESE PRECIP AREAS---CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.

MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT OVER OVER THE MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION IN THE
0000 TO O600 UTC PERIOD MONDAY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.



DAYS 2/3...

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...

THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ERN NE THIS MORNING WILL
FINALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES ON SUN AND STREAM THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST ON MON. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WAVE WILL PROCEED FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY AND CAPITALIZE ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONTENT FOR A STREAK OF HEAVIER QPF. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY CAPTURES THIS AXIS FROM UPSTATE NY TO NRN MAINE
AND WPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH .50 TO 1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS BY TUES MORNING.

...MID-ATL/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TO GULF COAST...

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE WRN GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TWO DAYS... AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIG TOWARD THE SOUTH/GULF COAST.
INVOF AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A DEEP PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO SETUP A
POSSIBLE EXTENDED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY
FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS OR ERN TN/SWRN VA
AND SRN WV TO SWRN LA/SERN TX ON MON. THIS IS THE GENERAL ZONE
THAT THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER NUMBERS. WPC FOLLOWED A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AS LIGHT STEERING
COMPONENT AND SEMI QUARTER RING OF FIRE EVOLVES. THEN ON TUES...
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND NERN GULF COAST FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN FROM SERN VA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST...
THOUGH A BIT MORE SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
AND HELD OFF AN EXCESSIVE THREAT UNTIL GUIDANCE NARROWS SOME.

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON THE HEELS OF THE SEMI FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON MON AND TUES... A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL ZONE THOUGH WILL BASICALLY BE COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT QPF ACROSS WI/MI.

...PAC NW TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED ON MON AND TUES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IN LIMBO
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MON... BASICALLY SOUTH OF A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY FROM NV
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS
IN THIS AREA SHEAR-OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WHILE A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT OVER THE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LIGHT QPF INVOF OR JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE EXTENDED ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN CA UP INTO WA/OR.

GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 482698 480685 479680 476676 473672 470668 467667 463669
      458671 455670 445669 434655 430651 427650 420647 413649
      403654 397661 394664 391668 386676 382683 374699 369707
      367711 364715 353727 347735 343744 339751 335760 331769
      329777 325798 324803 322806 315813 313820 309828 307833
      306839 305850 302872 299879 294889 284902 276917 275921
      277925 277928 275931 270939 266949 264956 260965 253983
      249992 247996 249000 256016 259023 267027 277031 287031
      297030 307032 311041 315043 318044 321047 322051 322058
      321063 318072 322076 326077 328087 326098 326104 329109
      334115 343131 346135 349138 352139 355138 365125 373120
      376116 378112 381105 385094 389092 392089 394084 396079
      397075 397070 397064 398060 408057 411056 411054 409049
      394041 390039 386036 378033 372034 367033 364030 363024
      364022 366022 368023 375020 379018 379014 380007 378002
      375977 374966 373960 370956 368954 364955 358961 356966
      350967 344967 340965 337962 337958 344953 353948 359943
      364935 364931 363927 359920 355911 355896 355889 357884
      358880 361876 370871 375866 380858 386877 388881 393883
      397890 398895 400900 404912 404918 402923 398933 398958
      398973 398979 400984 403991 409996 415996 417994 424985
      430978 433974 434967 436955 437944 440919 443909 445899
      454853 456844 457837 457833 459821 462816 464810 467801
      468796 468788 468776 467761 468754 471749 475742 478719
      482698
 0.01 399213 397207 394202 388195 381188 372182 363177 359178
      357183 362190 370197 378203 386210 392213 398214 399213
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 275809 275803 272799 268798 266798 262801 258803 257807
      259811 262815 266816 270814 274812 275809
 0.25 461723 460719 457714 451706 448703 443702 434701 426698
      422697 420692 421681 420674 418667 416664 412663 408666
      404670 394686 384701 375719 367737 366742 367748 367760
      366764 366771 367778 366784 364789 361789 356790 349790
      345792 342795 336802 332811 329821 323841 319849 315859
      311867 306876 298894 289911 286920 285933 284944 284951
      285958 287960 291960 295961 300960 308956 316951 325934
      328925 331913 336892 341883 346875 354857 358848 363840
      369834 376828 383822 387819 389820 390824 389831 390838
      395849 399856 407863 413868 417870 421869 427849 427841
      429835 432824 436815 440805 446799 452798 456795 458790
      458782 458769 460758 460743 460731 461723
 0.25 423931 423928 423926 423924 422922 421923 421924 420926
      419928 419929 418931 418933 418935 419938 421938 422935
      423933 423931
 0.25 384083 383077 382071 378065 373063 370062 367063 369069
      370077 370084 373090 375096 378097 380095 382089 382084
      384083
 0.25 371052 368051 367049 363047 362047 358046 354046 353047
      351051 352053 354056 357057 361057 363056 366055 368053
      371052
 0.25 351117 350112 348108 346105 345101 344094 342091 338091
      337097 338102 339106 341111 344114 347117 351117
 0.25 313017 314012 313009 306006 298003 289002 283999 280999
      277001 275004 275009 280014 287017 294020 301021 306022
      310022 313017
 0.50 452755 453747 451738 449727 448720 446714 443712 437713
      426716 416715 412716 407718 403721 401725 400730 401737
      403739 397741 390748 387751 384756 381780 370797 366806
      361815 349830 344838 341841 339846 339854 342852 349846
      352842 353837 355833 357826 361824 366826 370823 373819
      378810 381800 385790 387786 392782 398776 403767 409758
      414756 419756 427761 432770 438777 444778 448775 451764
      452755
 0.50 416686 415680 414677 410677 408680 399691 389702 385708
      382716 377730 375740 375743 377746 382744 385742 387737
      390730 393724 399719 402713 410700 413694 416686
 0.50 425794 423789 421785 417784 412786 408788 405790 404794
      406798 408801 412805 415806 418802 420799 425796 425794
 0.50 412737 410737 409737 410739 412737 412737
 0.50 379080 379078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376069 375068
      374068 373070 373071 372073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379081 379080
 0.50 326898 326887 325884 321881 316878 312879 309881 305886
      302893 298899 294906 290912 289920 288931 289941 290950
      293953 297952 304949 308945 312939 316931 321917 324909
      326900 326898
 1.00 318913 318906 317899 314895 307895 304899 300903 295911
      294916 293922 292934 295945 299945 303943 307939 310935
      314925 317915 318913
 1.50 315911 315907 313903 310901 306901 301907 298914 296922
      295931 297939 299941 301941 307936 310929 313922 315913
      315911
 2.00 313911 311907 306907 302912 299918 298924 297931 299937
      305933 308928 310924 312918 313911

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 474619 480626 486634 492644 498656 505673 507678 508685
      508693 506698 498704 493706 492710 491716 489719 482725
      476731 470737 463744 459749 458756 453777 447788 441798
      431809 427810 425808 422802 421797 420793 418793 416798
      410805 407809 406814 404818 404822 403828 405835 410835
      413840 415845 413851 413858 416861 419860 411877 409882
      409886 411889 418889 420886 423888 425886 430884 438882
      430890 429894 429899 427905 426909 421912 417912 413915
      412920 417921 420919 425919 429916 432918 438923 440925
      438930 431935 428938 426940 428942 426947 423947 420950
      417953 412955 394959 385959 380959 377957 375949 373945
      377940 379931 380928 378925 379921 380916 378916 375918
      376914 376909 379907 385899 397888 396862 397853 400842
      400836 398833 397834 393842 390853 389864 386873 382881
      374900 373905 370909 364917 362919 360919 356922 350928
      336945 330949 327957 319962 314968 312971 310975 311978
      313982 315983 317981 321975 325972 327977 327983 324993
      319003 318016 315021 312024 308017 305018 304022 305024
      306029 303034 291033 294030 294028 292027 284026 277027
      273028 268025 263021 256014 248009 240004 233999 232989
      232986 234982 240976 243973 245971 243970 243963 244958
      252941 259929 265922 269914 271908 274904 279896 287883
      292876 299871 302866 303862 296858 294853 293849 297848
      298846 295843 293839 294835 295830 296827 294824 284825
      279820 276818 272820 264819 258815 253809 251807 252804
      251797 251794 253793 260792 271791 275792 282792 288790
      292788 301783 311778 320772 325766 329760 338745 358717
      360713 364710 369702 374694 377690 378684 382665
 0.01 382665 383662 383660 384657 384655 385654 387652 389651
      390649 390648 392648 393645
 0.01 514838 514827 513817 511812 509809 506809 501808 496812
      490823 489828 489838 487854 486859 485861 486871 494877
      501875 504872 510861 513846 514838
 0.01 480249 473245 466243 459239 458233 455232 451232 451224
      452220 448222 446233 447236 445237 443234 443231 442227
      437226 436222 440219 444217 442214 439215 437217 433216
      431219 426219 420219 417215 422212 420207 417203 412201
      410202 406202 401200 398194 394194 388192 387188 389185
      390179 395183 397174 401168 403165 407164 408168 410167
      413169 415167 417161 419159 417153 411144 404145 400138
      395141 388139 386135 389127 394124 396123 398126 403130
      407131 406127 401117 409110 409103 406100 405104 403106
      400104 399101 397099 397094 399088 402072 401067 400064
      397058 396054 393052 388050 386052 382053 379049 377058
      366059 361060 359058 361056 364054 368055 373053 375051
      373048 371041 367043 368049 364049 362051 356055 349058
      339056 331055 334058 337058 342060 343063 344066 343068
      342070 340069 338071 334082 337086 338091 338096 340102
      340108 344117 344127 347132 348139 351143 355144 353142
      354138 361139 364142 367141 370138 372141 370147 374151
      372155 370154 369149 364149 359153 354148 350154 356161
      366165 369172 373173 375171 381171 384172 384175 383177
      384181 383185 381186 378180 378176 376175 371178 366178
      363177 361175 362172 364171 363168 359169 359176 359184
      361188 369191 376195 385203 393210 398214 403219 406220
      409218 413224 411226 408229 403228 400228 399230 400232
      404237 408240 413237 426244 432246 436246 441244 447245
      453244 462247 473250 477251 480249
 0.01 481239 482237 482234 481233 480232 479231 478229 477229
      476230 475232 474234 475237 476237 477239 478240 480240
      481239
 0.01 497005 489003 487998 487992 486987 480984 476984 472985
      464986 457983 453982 450981 448982 438983 436984 432984
      423984 415986 407982 403983 410998 411002 408006 404007
      405009 400014 395018 396022 393027 396030 398033 399037
      408038 410034 414033 412028 416027 419029 424030 426029
      433033 439031 444032 447031 450028 452029 452032 452038
      453038 457037 460035 465031 469026 469022 471019 473014
      476012 480012 484014 487015 489012 497005
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 391093 389092
      388093 387094 385095 385097 383095 382097 383098 385097
      385099 386102 388104 389105 391105 391104 392103
 0.01 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384108
 0.01 377110 377103 374100 376096 376091 372087 371086 371082
      373076 372074 369075 364076 363078 361078 360082 361084
      366087 370090 371094 366096 368101 372104 373107 372111
      369116 370119 372123 372116 374112 377110
 0.01 356111 355109 354105 352102 352099 351096 349094 347092
      346094 345098 347102 348105 349108 351109 353111 355113
      356111
 0.01 360071 358069 358067 358065 359062 359060 357058 356058
      354058 352060 352062 352064 351066 351068 351070 353070
      355070 356070 357071 358073 360071
 0.01 304983 304981 304979 304977 304975 303973 301975 301977
      301979 301981 301983 303984 304983
 0.01 299027 299025 298023 296023 294025 294027 295029 297029
      299027
 0.01 299981 297979 297977 295975 294975 293977 292978 291979
      291981 292983 293985 295984 296983 297982 299981
 0.01 286989 284988 282988 281989 282990 284990 286989
 0.25 464622 472634 477641 482647 485654 484661 484665 486667
      491672 493674 494679 493690 490697 486701 480705 474710
      470715 465722 457734 452742 450751 444763 442769 437775
      434778 430779 428776 428770 426767 423772 421776 419774
      421768 423762 425758 424754 424746 426738 428734 431730
      435728 437725 440721 440718 439712 440704 437700 430698
      428692 425689 421684 419683 416684 412688 410694 409702
      413701 418707 418713 420716 417736 416743 414744 411744
      405742 402746 405748 408746 411745 411748 409763 405769
      403776 402787 403792 402795 399797 398800 394806 389813
      386822 384828 382834 378840 375846 373855 371862 370869
      370873 367881 363888 354899 330916 314935 312939 309941
      301943 298944 296947 294950 292949 280953 275958 272960
      270958 272950 272942 272936 274932 276922 280910 284904
      288900 290893 294887 297882 303879 311876 316873 319865
      326856 332846 330844 327847 325854 320857 317854 313851
      314844 319841 320832 317828 308825 306822 310820 313819
      314811 309792 339758 347748 355738 371713 379700 384692
      387685 392674 399661 404656 410652 419649 426650 431653
      434657 440661 444661 447658 447651 445643 444635 445629
 0.25 378128 378127 378126 377125 375125 373127 374129 374131
      376130 377130 378128 378128
 0.25 380076 381074 381072 380069 378069 376071 376073 376075
      376076 377078 379077 380076
 0.25 367135 365133 364135 365136 367136 367135
 0.25 368108 368107 366108 365110 366111 367110 368110 368108
 0.25 361130 360128 359127 357129 358130 360131 361130
 0.25 314958 315955 313954 309954 305955 299954 297954 294952
      291956 293960 297962 303961 308960 312959 314958
 0.25 304831 302830 302832 304831 304831
 0.25 307998 306997 304996 303998 302999 302000 302001 304002
      306000 307998
 0.25 289974 290970 288968 283969 276970 273974 274980 270983
      265986 266990 270989 275988 281985 283981 287977 289974
 0.25 277009 273001 268994 264990 260993 260988 259978 259972
      257971 256974 252975 250978 249984 251988 253991 257994
      260001 265009 269011 273011 277009
 0.25 263966 264964 263964 262964 261965 260966 259968 258970
      259971 259970 261968 263967 263966
 0.50 485692 484686 483683 479678 471668 466653 464646 462642
      460640 454641 452648 453654 453661 448673 446679 448690
      450698 449705 448714 448719 447722 436746 434761 433767
      434769 436767 444756 446750 448744 450735 452729 456722
      459718 467708 471703 477700 482696 485692
 0.50 414672 414668 412664 408662 403665 400669 397675 395680
      394687 397692 404691 408686 411680 413675 414672
 0.50 393736 391731 388728 385726 380730 376737 373746 361757
      359758 358761 361762 363760 365764 365769 363774 359776
      357774 355766 351760 356752 361743 354745 349751 343759
      337766 334771 332776 332780 334783 333789 333795 336799
      334802 331806 329810 324809 321811 320821 322825 326824
      336819 340817 342813 340809 341804 347808 354802 358801
      358804 358810 362811 361817 358818 354816 351813 347811
      344812 344818 344825 342830 340835 339841 338852 335859
      328866 320873 316879 310884 301884 298886 295892 295902
      293910 289913 284914 282919 284925 283934 283938 286942
      294941 305939 309938 311935 310930 312927 320923 327915
      330912 333910 337908 338906 337904 331902 329900 334897
      335892 336890 339890 342891 340895 340897 344900 348897
      350892 354890 358888 360884 363874 362869 363863 366853
      371845 374837 385795 387791 386789 386778 389753 393736
 0.50 373726 373722 370721 368723 366726 364728 363730 361733
      360736 358738 362739 364737 367735 368734 370732 372729
      373726
 0.50 352881 353879 353877 352875 350875 348877 347879 347880
      346882 345884 344886 345887 347887 348888 349889 350888
      351887 351886 352883 352882 352881
 0.50 313956 310955 307956 305956 301957 297956 296956 295958
      296960 299960 301960 305959 308959 311958 313956
 0.50 306899 306897 306896 304895 304894 304895 303897 304898
      305899 306899 306899
 0.50 283974 283973 282972 281972 279972 279973 277974 277975
      279976 281976 283975 283974
 0.50 278985 277982 275982 274982 273983 272984 271984 272985
      273986 275986 277985 278985
 1.00 378778 377776 377774 376776 376778 377779 378778
 1.00 377796 378791 376788 373792 367804 368810 366815 362827
      358839 353833 343838 341845 341854 340861 337867 333870
      327872 323877 323883 324885 326885 331885 337884 340883
      341880 347871 353860 360860 370838 373824 375810 377796
 1.00 354788 353787 351789 353789 354788
 1.00 315913 308908 306904 304906 306912 304915 302909 299907
      299913 299917 296922 298928 298931 296931 294934 295937
      297938 305936 306934 302932 304928 307925 306923 303922
      312916 315913
 1.50 372819 372810 370806 368813 366819 364825 362832 361838
      360845 362850 365845 367838 369831 371826 372819
 1.50 352842 348841 345840 343842 343849 344853 343858 342863
      343868 346866 349862 351857 352853 351846 352842
 1.50 341875 341874 341873 340871 339871 337871 336872 334873
      332874 330874 328875 328876 328878 329880 330880 330881
      332881 334881 336880 338879 339879 340878 341876 341875
 2.00 370817 368817 367820 366822 365826 365829 363832 362835
      362838 362843 364843 365840 366837 367833 368831 368827
      369824 370820 370817
 2.00 349855 349854 349853 347852 346853 345855 345858 344860
      344861 344862 344863 346864 347862 348861 348860 349857
      349856 349855


24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 521269 522262 519254 515240 502217 500210 499201 492198
      486197 479203 472202 469202 468205 464205 461203 459202
      456204 452202 449203 447201 448197 450195 454193 456189
      449187 447184 444183 440190 438187 436184 435181 436180
      435174 432171 429176 426179 425188 423188 421186 421178
      418173 415170 414172 417175 419190 416192 413193 410194
      406193 403193 401194 395198 392192 385190 379192 380197
      385200 385206 378213 383217 386218 397222 404222 408222
      407225 402227 399227 399231 403235 404242 413242 420242
      426246 432246 439246 442244 447242 450248 458250 485254
      487262 490266 494271 497276 502282 506286 516285
 0.01 520829 519815 517811 515809 509807 505807 503809 493817
      490819 489815 489805 487801 485800 482798 477798 469799
      460802 437816 434817 430818 427819 425824 425829 423832
      419839 409849 405853 402860 399867 396875 399883 403889
      403893 401895 398894 397899 394899 389902 386902 383902
      378904 375901 367909 364916 366921 367925 366928 363936
      364941 367938 369937 371938 376941 379943 382942 386946
      389945 389943 386941 388937 391938 393936 391928 401927
      412933 414931 418929 422933 424935 426940 433941 440945
      445951 447957 450950 451945 453944 455950 459952 462952
      469950 471948 470944 468933 472926 476925 477922 480920
      482924 487928 489929 491927 494919 500879 504863 510848
      514843 517838 520829
 0.01 495233 494228 492225 488222 484223 479222 475222 477225
      482229 483233 486237 490240 493241 494235 495233
 0.01 473237 473234 473232 471233 471234 469234 467235 465235
      464235 462236 463238 465238 467238 468238 470238 472238
      473237
 0.01 463238 462236 460236 459237 460239 461239 463238
 0.01 459240 458238 456238 455238 456241 458241 459240
 0.01 461225 460224 458224 457223 455224 453225 452225 453227
      454228 456228 458228 459227 460227 461225
 0.01 456241 454238 453239 451240 452242 454242 456241
 0.01 452698 450694 447693 441698 435702 434696 435691 436683
      437679 436674 430658 427652 423651 413646 409645 407650
      403651 395653 391655 390658 387663 382669 378675 374682
      365709 357720 350728 344732 339734 334739 331744 310763
      301773 296777 290780 280785 273787 268789 264794 261799
      257801 258802 260805 263807 267812 267817 265820 265835
      262849 263859 266865 271869 277870 280871 279875 277881
      271890 265901 252926 245938 242944 238948 236953 236956
      237964 237967 239970 242970 246972 251976 251984 252992
      254995 257994 261988 261984 263980 266978 268975 269967
      269958 269953 272950 276946 283939 288927 290921 294917
      297911 298907 302906 313898 317891 321886 324881 328874
      330866 332860 334858 338857 341856 343854 342850 342845
      344842 348837 351839 348842 348844 352844 355846 359845
      363841 366840 366845 364849 362852 355856 355859 356859
      364859 364868 359877 361883 365889 367891 370892 378891
      383893 388888 388879 391872 393869 393863 391860 390854
      390849 388851 387849 388845 391843 393837 390838 388836
      389833 389830 390826 393819 395814 399808 412787 415788
      417790 419792 422789 427785 427781 424780 426772 427767
      434755 438752 440750 440747 440742 444741 443735 436734
      434734 431733 433723 437717 446707 450703 452698
 0.01 436196 436194 436192 437189 435186 434184 432183 430185
      429185 427187 428189 430190 430192 429195 431197 432197
      434198 436196
 0.01 423219 422217 421216 419218 420220 422221 423219
 0.01 405177 404167 401162 398163 394163 393160 393157 392153
      392149 388146 386143 385140 382140 381146 381149 383148
      388148 390153 393160 393168 398169 402172 403176 405177
      405177
 0.01 397057 385063 374064 369059 368056 372055 380056 381051
      377050 374048 365046 362045 360042 359040 356040 358044
      355047 353050 350052 346055 350062 352062 351058 356059
      361061 358061 356064 355069 352071 349074 345073 340071
      334075 329077 330079 334080 336078 338081 340083 343081
      349086 350088 356084 356080 358076 362077 364074 369073
      370070 373069 374073 373078 374082 376081 376078 378076
      377069 382067 386066 391066 395062 397057
 0.01 390020 390013 388011 387008 383012 379010 379013 381016
      381019 379024 380028 380033 384031 386029 388025 390020
 0.01 377934 377931 375929 374931 373934 375936 377934
 0.01 364092 364090 362087 361087 359087 357089 356091 357091
      358093 358094 360094 362092 364092 364092
 0.01 369003 368997 368993 368987 364985 360985 356982 355989
      343989 338995 335999 333001 333004 332011 334017 332023
      333028 333032 335034 338036 340043 339050 336054 338056
      343059 342055 342051 343048 347046 346042 347038 350033
      352029 350024 350014 350011 351009 352006 354007 358017
      362020 363018 362012 360010 362007 369003
 0.01 365813 365811 364810 362812 361813 360814 359815 358817
      357818 357819 358820 359821 361818 363816 364815 365813
 0.01 341078 341076 340074 338076 336078 338080 339080 341078
 0.25 517273 517263 516254 513246 509238 505233 501232 499235
      500245 499255 500265 502273 508278 512279 515277 517273
 0.25 488213 486210 482209 477210 474209 469210 465211 462213
      460217 464220 468220 472218 475217 478215 484215 487213
      488213
 0.25 482832 483824 478824 475827 472829 469833 466836 465841
      468843 468846 471845 474842 478839 481835 482832
 0.25 464817 463816 461817 460817 461819 463819 464817
 0.25 464871 464868 464866 462865 461866 460867 460869 461870
      461871 462873 462874 463873 464872 464871
 0.25 461820 459818 458820 460821 461820
 0.25 445218 442217 439219 436221 433222 428226 422231 418230
      415231 411230 415236 419237 420235 422234 424235 428237
      432236 434233 439229 440222 443220 445218
 0.25 425684 423679 420677 412675 405672 400673 394674 389679
      385685 376700 372708 368716 358730 345738 340742 334750
      329757 324763 313775 308780 306783 301784 295789 294793
      294797 287804 285806 283804 278804 276805 276807 276813
      280815 289815 294809 303815 300823 301828 301834 296841
      295844 293849 287852 284855 283858 288859 291856 293855
      296857 301859 304856 306852 308851 309854 308861 311863
      313866 316866 319864 320860 319858 313855 313850 322852
      325849 327845 328842 326840 321840 317841 315839 315836
      319828 321826 321821 323818 326820 328825 332824 336822
      340819 341816 344814 351809 360806 364799 370795 372786
      371779 371773 374769 379768 380764 377761 375760 377755
      379751 380747 380743 382738 384736 388734 391739 391742
      393741 394737 397733 401730 406723 411716 415710 418711
      417707 418704 422702 423699 425684
 0.25 408215 407213 405211 404211 402211 401211 400211 398212
      397213 398214 399215 399216 401216 402216 403216 405217
      406216 408215
 0.25 328796 325795 323796 319797 316801 313804 309806 305808
      308810 311808 317807 320805 323803 326799 328796
 0.25 324874 320873 318875 312878 310880 305880 302876 293872
      290872 289876 287881 284884 284888 280894 278900 277904
      278908 281910 286908 291906 300897 305894 309893 316883
      321878 324874
 0.25 291835 290833 289833 287831 286832 284833 285835 286836
      288837 290837 291835 291835
 0.25 283838 284835 282834 279834 275836 273838 272841 270843
      269845 268847 269849 272849 274848 276846 277844 279842
      281840 283838
 0.50 515267 515264 514259 514255 513252 511249 510246 508243
      505244 505250 506253 506257 507261 508264 509267 511270
      514269 515267
 0.50 471216 470214 468214 467214 468216 470216 471216
 0.50 418686 414682 410680 404678 400678 395680 391683 385692
      373711 362727 358732 354735 349738 345741 339748 333756
      325766 318773 312781 307788 302792 301794 300798 304800
      308801 311800 314796 319794 330791 333791 331794 331801
      327805 321807 317810 317813 324813 328811 338805 336801
      335799 338798 345793 349789 352786 351791 350792 349795
      350800 355801 357803 359801 361796 364791 366787 365780
      367773 369768 373763 372755 375746 378734 383722 389714
      393710 396709 399709 403710 408707 414696 418686
 0.50 365746 361745 358750 356753 353757 352760 349765 351769
      354767 358765 361760 362757 364753 365748 365746
 0.50 340784 340783 339782 338780 337779 336778 335776 334777
      332778 332779 331781 332783 332784 333785 333787 335789
      337789 338787 339786 340784 340784
 0.50 337817 336817 335817 334818 332819 332820 334820 336820
      336819 337817 337817
 0.50 316881 316879 314879 311882 304886 300889 298887 297882
      294879 292880 291883 290887 289892 286895 284898 284904
      288905 291902 297897 300893 304891 308890 311887 316881
 0.50 310837 310836 308837 306837 305837 304838 303839 302840
      302842 303844 303846 303848 303846 304844 305843 306842
      306841 308840 308839 310837 310837
 0.50 289812 288811 286810 285812 286814 288813 289812
 1.00 372729 372727 371725 371724 371725 369726 368728 366730
      368731 369732 370732 371731 372730 372729
 1.00 367732 366732 366730 364730 364731 363731 361733 360734
      361735 363735 365733 366732 367732
 1.00 367755 368752 367752 367753 367755 367755
 1.00 364769 364767 363766 363767 363769 364769 364769
 1.00 361736 356737 351740 343748 335758 329766 322775 318781
      320783 323782 325780 328776 336767 345761 348755 351751
      358741 361736
 1.50 353744 351743 350744 349745 348746 347747 347748 346750
      346752 347752 349750 350749 350748 351746 352746 353744


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 010844
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z WED MAY 04 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

AS SNOW TAPERS OFF TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER LOW...THERE IS THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS UPSTREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

BANN

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/1200 UTC THRU MAY 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WILL
ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE USED FOR DETAILS TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS RESULTS IN A BROAD REGION OF .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TOTALS---AS PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IN MANY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY---EQUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PW VALUES 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER---WITH SUCH SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS RESULTING IN THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED PRIMARILY.

SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE LA COAST AND UPPER TX COAST DAY 1.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL
AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.  SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS
USED PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
MS---ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.  WITH THE
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AT
THE MOMENT---GIVEN NO CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS---DAY 1
QPF KEPT PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HERE.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST---BECOMING
MORE SHEARED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN---THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMMB ARE SHOWING A MORE
DEFINED STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  CAN NOT SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
HI RES DETAIL IS NOT POSSIBLE---BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLER
SCALE OF THESE PRECIP AREAS---CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.

MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT OVER OVER THE MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION IN THE
0000 TO O600 UTC PERIOD MONDAY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...

THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ERN NE THIS MORNING WILL
FINALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES ON SUN AND STREAM THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST ON MON. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WAVE WILL PROCEED FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY AND CAPITALIZE ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONTENT FOR A STREAK OF HEAVIER QPF. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY CAPTURES THIS AXIS FROM UPSTATE NY TO NRN MAINE
AND WPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH .50 TO 1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS BY TUES MORNING.

...MID-ATL/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TO GULF COAST...

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE WRN GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TWO DAYS... AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIG TOWARD THE SOUTH/GULF COAST.
INVOF AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A DEEP PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO SETUP A
POSSIBLE EXTENDED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY
FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS OR ERN TN/SWRN VA
AND SRN WV TO SWRN LA/SERN TX ON MON. THIS IS THE GENERAL ZONE
THAT THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER NUMBERS. WPC FOLLOWED A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AS LIGHT STEERING
COMPONENT AND SEMI QUARTER RING OF FIRE EVOLVES. THEN ON TUES...
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND NERN GULF COAST FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN FROM SERN VA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST...
THOUGH A BIT MORE SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
AND HELD OFF AN EXCESSIVE THREAT UNTIL GUIDANCE NARROWS SOME.

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON THE HEELS OF THE SEMI FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON MON AND TUES... A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL ZONE THOUGH WILL BASICALLY BE COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT QPF ACROSS WI/MI.

...PAC NW TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED ON MON AND TUES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IN LIMBO
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MON... BASICALLY SOUTH OF A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY FROM NV
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS
IN THIS AREA SHEAR-OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WHILE A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT OVER THE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LIGHT QPF INVOF OR JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE EXTENDED ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN CA UP INTO WA/OR.

GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 482698 480683 476676 471670 469668 466667 461670 456670
      447670 434655 428651 420647 411650 405653 401657 394663
      390670 382683 374698 366713 353728 347735 343744 339751
      335760 332768 330774 329780 326797 325802 322806 315813
      309828 307837 306840 306847 302868 299878 297884 294889
      283903 275918 275922 277925 277929 275931 270940 266949
      260964 253980 251989 247998 256016 318044 323076 327079
      328086 328091 326098 326104 328108 334115 344131 348137
      352139 356138 358136 360130 366124 373119 378112 382103
      385095 390091 393088 395082 397076 398071 396066 398060
      407057 410056 411055 409049 380033 376034 370034 366032
      363027 363023 365022 368023 375020 379017 379012 380007
      378003 375982 375974 374970 374962 372958 369955 366954
      362957 358961 355966 350967 345967 341965 337962 337959
      343954 358944 363936 365932 363927 355911 355900 355893
      356888 357882 359877 367873 374867 380858 386878 388881
      389882 394885 398896 402906 403911 404917 398933 398957
      398969 398976 399981 403991 409996 415996 418993 424985
      429979 432976 434970 437954 438941 440928 441916 445899
      449879 450868 453857 456845 457833 460820 463815 464810
      468798 468793 468785 468773 467759 469753 471749 475743
      478719 482698
 0.01 399213 397207 394202 388195 381188 372182 363177 359178
      357183 362190 370197 378203 386210 392213 398214 399213
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 275809 275803 272799 268798 266798 262801 258803 257807
      259811 262815 266816 270814 274812 275809
 0.25 461723 459718 457715 452707 449704 444702 434701 426698
      422697 420693 421680 420674 418667 416664 412663 409665
      406668 394686 389694 383703 375719 367737 366741 367748
      367760 366764 366771 367778 366783 365789 362789 356790
      349790 345792 342794 336801 334805 332811 329821 323841
      319849 316854 315859 312867 307875 298894 290908 288912
      286919 285933 284943 284949 284956 287960 290960 295961
      300960 315951 320942 325934 328926 331915 336892 341884
      345877 350867 354857 358848 363841 369834 376828 383822
      387820 389819 390822 389831 390838 395849 399855 405862
      413868 417870 421869 425858 427847 428840 429835 432824
      435816 440806 446799 452798 456795 460743 460731 461723
 0.25 423931 423928 423926 423924 422922 421923 421924 420926
      419928 419929 418931 418933 418935 419938 421938 422935
      423933 423931
 0.25 384083 383077 382071 378065 373063 370062 367063 369069
      370077 370084 373090 375096 378097 380095 382089 382084
      384083
 0.25 371052 368051 367049 363047 362047 358046 354046 353047
      351051 352053 354056 357057 361057 363056 366055 368053
      371052
 0.25 351117 350112 348108 346105 345101 344094 342091 338091
      337097 338102 339106 341111 344114 347117 351117
 0.25 313017 314012 313009 306006 298003 289002 283999 280999
      277001 275004 275009 280014 287017 294020 301021 306022
      310022 313017
 0.50 452755 453747 452740 450732 449727 449721 447715 443712
      437713 427716 415715 408717 404720 401725 400730 401737
      403739 397741 390747 387751 384756 381780 370797 367805
      361815 349830 344837 341842 339846 338852 340854 347847
      350844 352841 356829 358825 362825 368826 371822 376814
      380803 384793 385788 389784 392782 396779 402770 407762
      409758 416755 421756 423759 428762 431767 436775 440778
      446777 449772 450766 452755
 0.50 416686 416681 414677 410677 408680 399691 389702 385708
      382716 377730 375740 375743 377746 382744 385741 387737
      390730 393724 399719 402713 410700 413694 416686
 0.50 425794 423789 421785 417784 412786 408788 405790 404794
      406798 408801 412805 415806 418802 420799 425796 425794
 0.50 412737 410737 409737 410739 412737 412737
 0.50 379080 379078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376069 375068
      374068 373070 373071 372073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379081 379080
 0.50 326896 326891 326885 324882 321881 320881 318879 313878
      310879 305886 302893 299899 295904 291910 289918 288929
      289939 290950 291952 296952 303950 308945 312939 315932
      320917 325902 326896
 1.00 315911 316905 315898 313895 307895 302902 297908 294912
      293916 292929 292933 293937 294941 297945 305941 308937
      310933 312924 315913 315911
 1.50 312916 312907 311905 308903 304904 302907 300912 299918
      297924 296931 296934 297936 299939 301939 304935 307930
      309924 311918 312916
 2.00 303928 303927 301928 300931 301931 302931 303929 303928

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 474619 480626 486634 492644 498656 505673 507678 508685
      508693 506698 498704 493706 492710 491716 489719 482725
      476731 470737 463744 459749 458756 453777 447788 441798
      431809 427810 425808 422802 421797 420793 418793 416798
      410805 407809 406814 404818 404822 403828 405835 410835
      413840 415845 413851 413858 416861 419860 411877 409882
      409886 411889 418889 420886 423888 425886 430884 438882
      430890 429894 429899 427905 426909 421912 417912 413915
      412920 417921 420919 425919 429916 432918 438923 440925
      438930 431935 428938 426940 428942 426947 423947 420950
      417953 412955 394959 385959 380959 377957 375949 373945
      377940 379931 380928 378925 379921 380916 378916 375918
      376914 376909 379907 385899 397888 396862 397853 400842
      400836 398833 397834 393842 390853 389864 386873 382881
      374900 373905 370909 364917 362919 360919 356922 350928
      336945 330949 327957 319962 314968 312971 310975 311978
      313982 315983 317981 321975 325972 327977 327983 324993
      319003 318016 315021 312024 308017 305018 304022 305024
      306029 303034 291033 294030 294028 292027 284026 277027
      273028 268025 263021 256014 248009 240004 233999 232989
      232986 234982 240976 243973 245971 243970 243963 244958
      252941 259929 265922 269914 271908 274904 279896 287883
      292876 299871 302866 303862 296858 294853 293849 297848
      298846 295843 293839 294835 295830 296827 294824 284825
      279820 276818 272820 264819 258815 253809 251807 252804
      251797 251794 253793 260792 271791 275792 282792 288790
      292788 301783 311778 320772 325766 329760 338745 358717
      360713 364710 369702 374694 377690 378684 382665
 0.01 382665 383662 383660 384657 384655 385654 387652 389651
      390649 390648 392648 393645
 0.01 514838 514827 513817 511812 509809 506809 501808 496812
      490823 489828 489838 487854 486859 485861 486871 494877
      501875 504872 510861 513846 514838
 0.01 480249 473245 466243 459239 458233 455232 451232 451224
      452220 448222 446233 447236 445237 443234 443231 442227
      437226 436222 440219 444217 442214 439215 437217 433216
      431219 426219 420219 417215 422212 420207 417203 412201
      410202 406202 401200 398194 394194 388192 387188 389185
      390179 395183 397174 401168 403165 407164 408168 410167
      413169 415167 417161 419159 417153 411144 404145 400138
      395141 388139 386135 389127 394124 396123 398126 403130
      407131 406127 401117 409110 409103 406100 405104 403106
      400104 399101 397099 397094 399088 402072 401067 400064
      397058 396054 393052 388050 386052 382053 379049 377058
      366059 361060 359058 361056 364054 368055 373053 375051
      373048 371041 367043 368049 364049 362051 356055 349058
      339056 331055 334058 337058 342060 343063 344066 343068
      342070 340069 338071 334082 337086 338091 338096 340102
      340108 344117 344127 347132 348139 351143 355144 353142
      354138 361139 364142 367141 370138 372141 370147 374151
      372155 370154 369149 364149 359153 354148 350154 356161
      366165 369172 373173 375171 381171 384172 384175 383177
      384181 383185 381186 378180 378176 376175 371178 366178
      363177 361175 362172 364171 363168 359169 359176 359184
      361188 369191 376195 385203 393210 398214 403219 406220
      409218 413224 411226 408229 403228 400228 399230 400232
      404237 408240 413237 426244 432246 436246 441244 447245
      453244 462247 473250 477251 480249
 0.01 481239 482237 482234 481233 480232 479231 478229 477229
      476230 475232 474234 475237 476237 477239 478240 480240
      481239
 0.01 497005 489003 487998 487992 486987 480984 476984 472985
      464986 457983 453982 450981 448982 438983 436984 432984
      423984 415986 407982 403983 410998 411002 408006 404007
      405009 400014 395018 396022 393027 396030 398033 399037
      408038 410034 414033 412028 416027 419029 424030 426029
      433033 439031 444032 447031 450028 452029 452032 452038
      453038 457037 460035 465031 469026 469022 471019 473014
      476012 480012 484014 487015 489012 497005
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 391093 389092
      388093 387094 385095 385097 383095 382097 383098 385097
      385099 386102 388104 389105 391105 391104 392103
 0.01 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384108
 0.01 377110 377103 374100 376096 376091 372087 371086 371082
      373076 372074 369075 364076 363078 361078 360082 361084
      366087 370090 371094 366096 368101 372104 373107 372111
      369116 370119 372123 372116 374112 377110
 0.01 356111 355109 354105 352102 352099 351096 349094 347092
      346094 345098 347102 348105 349108 351109 353111 355113
      356111
 0.01 360071 358069 358067 358065 359062 359060 357058 356058
      354058 352060 352062 352064 351066 351068 351070 353070
      355070 356070 357071 358073 360071
 0.01 304983 304981 304979 304977 304975 303973 301975 301977
      301979 301981 301983 303984 304983
 0.01 299027 299025 298023 296023 294025 294027 295029 297029
      299027
 0.01 299981 297979 297977 295975 294975 293977 292978 291979
      291981 292983 293985 295984 296983 297982 299981
 0.01 286989 284988 282988 281989 282990 284990 286989
 0.25 464622 472634 477641 482647 485654 484661 484665 486667
      491672 493674 494679 493690 490697 486701 480705 474710
      470715 465722 457734 452742 450751 444763 442769 437775
      434778 430779 428776 428770 426767 423772 421776 419774
      421768 423762 425758 424754 424746 426738 428734 431730
      435728 437725 440721 440718 439712 440704 437700 430698
      428692 425689 421684 419683 416684 412688 410694 409702
      413701 418707 418713 420716 417736 416743 414744 411744
      405742 402746 405748 408746 411745 411748 409763 405769
      403776 402787 403792 402795 399797 398800 394806 389813
      386822 384828 382834 378840 375846 373855 371862 370869
      370873 367881 363888 354899 330916 314935 312939 309941
      301943 298944 296947 294950 292949 280953 275958 272960
      270958 272950 272942 272936 274932 276922 280910 284904
      288900 290893 294887 297882 303879 311876 316873 319865
      326856 332846 330844 327847 325854 320857 317854 313851
      314844 319841 320832 317828 308825 306822 310820 313819
      314811 309792 339758 347748 355738 371713 379700 384692
      387685 392674 399661 404656 410652 419649 426650 431653
      434657 440661 444661 447658 447651 445643 444635 445629
 0.25 378128 378127 378126 377125 375125 373127 374129 374131
      376130 377130 378128 378128
 0.25 380076 381074 381072 380069 378069 376071 376073 376075
      376076 377078 379077 380076
 0.25 367135 365133 364135 365136 367136 367135
 0.25 368108 368107 366108 365110 366111 367110 368110 368108
 0.25 361130 360128 359127 357129 358130 360131 361130
 0.25 314958 315955 313954 309954 305955 299954 297954 294952
      291956 293960 297962 303961 308960 312959 314958
 0.25 304831 302830 302832 304831 304831
 0.25 307998 306997 304996 303998 302999 302000 302001 304002
      306000 307998
 0.25 289974 290970 288968 283969 276970 273974 274980 270983
      265986 266990 270989 275988 281985 283981 287977 289974
 0.25 277009 273001 268994 264990 260993 260988 259978 259972
      257971 256974 252975 250978 249984 251988 253991 257994
      260001 265009 269011 273011 277009
 0.25 263966 264964 263964 262964 261965 260966 259968 258970
      259971 259970 261968 263967 263966
 0.50 485692 484686 483683 479678 471668 466653 464646 462642
      460640 454641 452648 453654 453661 448673 446679 448690
      450698 449705 448714 448719 447722 436746 434761 433767
      434769 436767 444756 446750 448744 450735 452729 456722
      459718 467708 471703 477700 482696 485692
 0.50 414672 414668 412664 408662 403665 400669 397675 395680
      394687 397692 404691 408686 411680 413675 414672
 0.50 393736 391731 388728 385726 380730 376737 373746 361757
      359758 358761 361762 363760 365764 365769 363774 359776
      357774 355766 351760 356752 361743 354745 349751 343759
      337766 334771 332776 332780 334783 333789 333795 336799
      334802 331806 329810 324809 321811 320821 322825 326824
      336819 340817 342813 340809 341804 347808 354802 358801
      358804 358810 362811 361817 358818 354816 351813 347811
      344812 344818 344825 342830 340835 339841 338852 335859
      328866 320873 316879 310884 301884 298886 295892 295902
      293910 289913 284914 282919 284925 283934 283938 286942
      294941 305939 309938 311935 310930 312927 320923 327915
      330912 333910 337908 338906 337904 331902 329900 334897
      335892 336890 339890 342891 340895 340897 344900 348897
      350892 354890 358888 360884 363874 362869 363863 366853
      371845 374837 385795 387791 386789 386778 389753 393736
 0.50 373726 373722 370721 368723 366726 364728 363730 361733
      360736 358738 362739 364737 367735 368734 370732 372729
      373726
 0.50 352881 353879 353877 352875 350875 348877 347879 347880
      346882 345884 344886 345887 347887 348888 349889 350888
      351887 351886 352883 352882 352881
 0.50 313956 310955 307956 305956 301957 297956 296956 295958
      296960 299960 301960 305959 308959 311958 313956
 0.50 306899 306897 306896 304895 304894 304895 303897 304898
      305899 306899 306899
 0.50 283974 283973 282972 281972 279972 279973 277974 277975
      279976 281976 283975 283974
 0.50 278985 277982 275982 274982 273983 272984 271984 272985
      273986 275986 277985 278985
 1.00 378778 377776 377774 376776 376778 377779 378778
 1.00 377796 378791 376788 373792 367804 368810 366815 362827
      358839 353833 343838 341845 341854 340861 337867 333870
      327872 323877 323883 324885 326885 331885 337884 340883
      341880 347871 353860 360860 370838 373824 375810 377796
 1.00 354788 353787 351789 353789 354788
 1.00 315913 308908 306904 304906 306912 304915 302909 299907
      299913 299917 296922 298928 298931 296931 294934 295937
      297938 305936 306934 302932 304928 307925 306923 303922
      312916 315913
 1.50 372819 372810 370806 368813 366819 364825 362832 361838
      360845 362850 365845 367838 369831 371826 372819
 1.50 352842 348841 345840 343842 343849 344853 343858 342863
      343868 346866 349862 351857 352853 351846 352842
 1.50 341875 341874 341873 340871 339871 337871 336872 334873
      332874 330874 328875 328876 328878 329880 330880 330881
      332881 334881 336880 338879 339879 340878 341876 341875
 2.00 370817 368817 367820 366822 365826 365829 363832 362835
      362838 362843 364843 365840 366837 367833 368831 368827
      369824 370820 370817
 2.00 349855 349854 349853 347852 346853 345855 345858 344860
      344861 344862 344863 346864 347862 348861 348860 349857
      349856 349855

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 521269 522262 519254 515240 502217 500210 499201 492198
      486197 479203 472202 469202 468205 464205 461203 459202
      456204 452202 449203 447201 448197 450195 454193 456189
      449187 447184 444183 440190 438187 436184 435181 436180
      435174 432171 429176 426179 425188 423188 421186 421178
      418173 415170 414172 417175 419190 416192 413193 410194
      406193 403193 401194 395198 392192 385190 379192 380197
      385200 385206 378213 383217 386218 397222 404222 408222
      407225 402227 399227 399231 403235 404242 413242 420242
      426246 432246 439246 442244 447242 450248 458250 485254
      487262 490266 494271 497276 502282 506286 516285
 0.01 520829 519815 517811 515809 509807 505807 503809 493817
      490819 489815 489805 487801 485800 482798 477798 469799
      460802 437816 434817 430818 427819 425824 425829 423832
      419839 409849 405853 402860 399867 396875 399883 403889
      403893 401895 398894 397899 394899 389902 386902 383902
      378904 375901 367909 364916 366921 367925 366928 363936
      364941 367938 369937 371938 376941 379943 382942 386946
      389945 389943 386941 388937 391938 393936 391928 401927
      412933 414931 418929 422933 424935 426940 433941 440945
      445951 447957 450950 451945 453944 455950 459952 462952
      469950 471948 470944 468933 472926 476925 477922 480920
      482924 487928 489929 491927 494919 500879 504863 510848
      514843 517838 520829
 0.01 495233 494228 492225 488222 484223 479222 475222 477225
      482229 483233 486237 490240 493241 494235 495233
 0.01 473237 473234 473232 471233 471234 469234 467235 465235
      464235 462236 463238 465238 467238 468238 470238 472238
      473237
 0.01 463238 462236 460236 459237 460239 461239 463238
 0.01 459240 458238 456238 455238 456241 458241 459240
 0.01 461225 460224 458224 457223 455224 453225 452225 453227
      454228 456228 458228 459227 460227 461225
 0.01 456241 454238 453239 451240 452242 454242 456241
 0.01 452698 450694 447693 441698 435702 434696 435691 436683
      437679 436674 430658 427652 423651 413646 409645 407650
      403651 395653 391655 390658 387663 382669 378675 374682
      365709 357720 350728 344732 339734 334739 331744 310763
      301773 296777 290780 280785 273787 268789 264794 261799
      257801 258802 260805 263807 267812 267817 265820 265835
      262849 263859 266865 271869 277870 280871 279875 277881
      271890 265901 252926 245938 242944 238948 236953 236956
      237964 237967 239970 242970 246972 251976 251984 252992
      254995 257994 261988 261984 263980 266978 268975 269967
      269958 269953 272950 276946 283939 288927 290921 294917
      297911 298907 302906 313898 317891 321886 324881 328874
      330866 332860 334858 338857 341856 343854 342850 342845
      344842 348837 351839 348842 348844 352844 355846 359845
      363841 366840 366845 364849 362852 355856 355859 356859
      364859 364868 359877 361883 365889 367891 370892 378891
      383893 388888 388879 391872 393869 393863 391860 390854
      390849 388851 387849 388845 391843 393837 390838 388836
      389833 389830 390826 393819 395814 399808 412787 415788
      417790 419792 422789 427785 427781 424780 426772 427767
      434755 438752 440750 440747 440742 444741 443735 436734
      434734 431733 433723 437717 446707 450703 452698
 0.01 436196 436194 436192 437189 435186 434184 432183 430185
      429185 427187 428189 430190 430192 429195 431197 432197
      434198 436196
 0.01 423219 422217 421216 419218 420220 422221 423219
 0.01 405177 404167 401162 398163 394163 393160 393157 392153
      392149 388146 386143 385140 382140 381146 381149 383148
      388148 390153 393160 393168 398169 402172 403176 405177
      405177
 0.01 397057 385063 374064 369059 368056 372055 380056 381051
      377050 374048 365046 362045 360042 359040 356040 358044
      355047 353050 350052 346055 350062 352062 351058 356059
      361061 358061 356064 355069 352071 349074 345073 340071
      334075 329077 330079 334080 336078 338081 340083 343081
      349086 350088 356084 356080 358076 362077 364074 369073
      370070 373069 374073 373078 374082 376081 376078 378076
      377069 382067 386066 391066 395062 397057
 0.01 390020 390013 388011 387008 383012 379010 379013 381016
      381019 379024 380028 380033 384031 386029 388025 390020
 0.01 377934 377931 375929 374931 373934 375936 377934
 0.01 364092 364090 362087 361087 359087 357089 356091 357091
      358093 358094 360094 362092 364092 364092
 0.01 369003 368997 368993 368987 364985 360985 356982 355989
      343989 338995 335999 333001 333004 332011 334017 332023
      333028 333032 335034 338036 340043 339050 336054 338056
      343059 342055 342051 343048 347046 346042 347038 350033
      352029 350024 350014 350011 351009 352006 354007 358017
      362020 363018 362012 360010 362007 369003
 0.01 365813 365811 364810 362812 361813 360814 359815 358817
      357818 357819 358820 359821 361818 363816 364815 365813
 0.01 341078 341076 340074 338076 336078 338080 339080 341078
 0.25 517273 517263 516254 513246 509238 505233 501232 499235
      500245 499255 500265 502273 508278 512279 515277 517273
 0.25 488213 486210 482209 477210 474209 469210 465211 462213
      460217 464220 468220 472218 475217 478215 484215 487213
      488213
 0.25 482832 483824 478824 475827 472829 469833 466836 465841
      468843 468846 471845 474842 478839 481835 482832
 0.25 464817 463816 461817 460817 461819 463819 464817
 0.25 464871 464868 464866 462865 461866 460867 460869 461870
      461871 462873 462874 463873 464872 464871
 0.25 461820 459818 458820 460821 461820
 0.25 445218 442217 439219 436221 433222 428226 422231 418230
      415231 411230 415236 419237 420235 422234 424235 428237
      432236 434233 439229 440222 443220 445218
 0.25 425684 423679 420677 412675 405672 400673 394674 389679
      385685 376700 372708 368716 358730 345738 340742 334750
      329757 324763 313775 308780 306783 301784 295789 294793
      294797 287804 285806 283804 278804 276805 276807 276813
      280815 289815 294809 303815 300823 301828 301834 296841
      295844 293849 287852 284855 283858 288859 291856 293855
      296857 301859 304856 306852 308851 309854 308861 311863
      313866 316866 319864 320860 319858 313855 313850 322852
      325849 327845 328842 326840 321840 317841 315839 315836
      319828 321826 321821 323818 326820 328825 332824 336822
      340819 341816 344814 351809 360806 364799 370795 372786
      371779 371773 374769 379768 380764 377761 375760 377755
      379751 380747 380743 382738 384736 388734 391739 391742
      393741 394737 397733 401730 406723 411716 415710 418711
      417707 418704 422702 423699 425684
 0.25 408215 407213 405211 404211 402211 401211 400211 398212
      397213 398214 399215 399216 401216 402216 403216 405217
      406216 408215
 0.25 328796 325795 323796 319797 316801 313804 309806 305808
      308810 311808 317807 320805 323803 326799 328796
 0.25 324874 320873 318875 312878 310880 305880 302876 293872
      290872 289876 287881 284884 284888 280894 278900 277904
      278908 281910 286908 291906 300897 305894 309893 316883
      321878 324874
 0.25 291835 290833 289833 287831 286832 284833 285835 286836
      288837 290837 291835 291835
 0.25 283838 284835 282834 279834 275836 273838 272841 270843
      269845 268847 269849 272849 274848 276846 277844 279842
      281840 283838
 0.50 515267 515264 514259 514255 513252 511249 510246 508243
      505244 505250 506253 506257 507261 508264 509267 511270
      514269 515267
 0.50 471216 470214 468214 467214 468216 470216 471216
 0.50 418686 414682 410680 404678 400678 395680 391683 385692
      373711 362727 358732 354735 349738 345741 339748 333756
      325766 318773 312781 307788 302792 301794 300798 304800
      308801 311800 314796 319794 330791 333791 331794 331801
      327805 321807 317810 317813 324813 328811 338805 336801
      335799 338798 345793 349789 352786 351791 350792 349795
      350800 355801 357803 359801 361796 364791 366787 365780
      367773 369768 373763 372755 375746 378734 383722 389714
      393710 396709 399709 403710 408707 414696 418686
 0.50 365746 361745 358750 356753 353757 352760 349765 351769
      354767 358765 361760 362757 364753 365748 365746
 0.50 340784 340783 339782 338780 337779 336778 335776 334777
      332778 332779 331781 332783 332784 333785 333787 335789
      337789 338787 339786 340784 340784
 0.50 337817 336817 335817 334818 332819 332820 334820 336820
      336819 337817 337817
 0.50 316881 316879 314879 311882 304886 300889 298887 297882
      294879 292880 291883 290887 289892 286895 284898 284904
      288905 291902 297897 300893 304891 308890 311887 316881
 0.50 310837 310836 308837 306837 305837 304838 303839 302840
      302842 303844 303846 303848 303846 304844 305843 306842
      306841 308840 308839 310837 310837
 0.50 289812 288811 286810 285812 286814 288813 289812
 1.00 372729 372727 371725 371724 371725 369726 368728 366730
      368731 369732 370732 371731 372730 372729
 1.00 367732 366732 366730 364730 364731 363731 361733 360734
      361735 363735 365733 366732 367732
 1.00 367755 368752 367752 367753 367755 367755
 1.00 364769 364767 363766 363767 363769 364769 364769
 1.00 361736 356737 351740 343748 335758 329766 322775 318781
      320783 323782 325780 328776 336767 345761 348755 351751
      358741 361736
 1.50 353744 351743 350744 349745 348746 347747 347748 346750
      346752 347752 349750 350749 350748 351746 352746 353744


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/1200 UTC THRU MAY 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WILL
ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE USED FOR DETAILS TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS RESULTS IN A BROAD REGION OF .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TOTALS---AS PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IN MANY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY---EQUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PW VALUES 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER---WITH SUCH SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS RESULTING IN THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED PRIMARILY.

SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE LA COAST AND UPPER TX COAST DAY 1.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL
AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.  SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS
USED PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
MS---ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.  WITH THE
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AT
THE MOMENT---GIVEN NO CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS---DAY 1
QPF KEPT PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HERE.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST---BECOMING
MORE SHEARED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN---THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMMB ARE SHOWING A MORE
DEFINED STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  CAN NOT SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
HI RES DETAIL IS NOT POSSIBLE---BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLER
SCALE OF THESE PRECIP AREAS---CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.

MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT OVER OVER THE MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION IN THE
0000 TO O600 UTC PERIOD MONDAY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...

THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR ERN NE THIS MORNING WILL
FINALLY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES ON SUN AND STREAM THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST ON MON. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INDUCE A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WAVE WILL PROCEED FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY AND CAPITALIZE ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONTENT FOR A STREAK OF HEAVIER QPF. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY CAPTURES THIS AXIS FROM UPSTATE NY TO NRN MAINE
AND WPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH .50 TO 1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS BY TUES MORNING.

...MID-ATL/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TO GULF COAST...

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE WRN GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER TWO DAYS... AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIG TOWARD THE SOUTH/GULF COAST.
INVOF AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A DEEP PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO SETUP A
POSSIBLE EXTENDED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY
FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS OR ERN TN/SWRN VA
AND SRN WV TO SWRN LA/SERN TX ON MON. THIS IS THE GENERAL ZONE
THAT THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER NUMBERS. WPC FOLLOWED A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AS LIGHT STEERING
COMPONENT AND SEMI QUARTER RING OF FIRE EVOLVES. THEN ON TUES...
HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND NERN GULF COAST FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN FROM SERN VA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST...
THOUGH A BIT MORE SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO
AND HELD OFF AN EXCESSIVE THREAT UNTIL GUIDANCE NARROWS SOME.

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON THE HEELS OF THE SEMI FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON MON AND TUES... A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND IMPRESSIVE
THERMAL ZONE THOUGH WILL BASICALLY BE COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT QPF ACROSS WI/MI.

...PAC NW TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED ON MON AND TUES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IN LIMBO
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MON... BASICALLY SOUTH OF A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY FROM NV
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS
IN THIS AREA SHEAR-OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WHILE A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT OVER THE PAC BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LIGHT QPF INVOF OR JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE EXTENDED ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN CA UP INTO WA/OR.

GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 482698 480683 476676 471670 469668 466667 461670 456670
      447670 434655 428651 420647 411650 405653 401657 394663
      390670 382683 374698 366713 353728 347735 343744 339751
      335760 332768 330774 329780 326797 325802 322806 315813
      309828 307837 306840 306847 302868 299878 297884 294889
      283903 275918 275922 277925 277929 275931 270940 266949
      260964 253980 251989 247998 256016 318044 323076 327079
      328086 328091 326098 326104 328108 334115 344131 348137
      352139 356138 358136 360130 366124 373119 378112 382103
      385095 390091 393088 395082 397076 398071 396066 398060
      407057 410056 411055 409049 380033 376034 370034 366032
      363027 363023 365022 368023 375020 379017 379012 380007
      378003 375982 375974 374970 374962 372958 369955 366954
      362957 358961 355966 350967 345967 341965 337962 337959
      343954 358944 363936 365932 363927 355911 355900 355893
      356888 357882 359877 367873 374867 380858 386878 388881
      389882 394885 398896 402906 403911 404917 398933 398957
      398969 398976 399981 403991 409996 415996 418993 424985
      429979 432976 434970 437954 438941 440928 441916 445899
      449879 450868 453857 456845 457833 460820 463815 464810
      468798 468793 468785 468773 467759 469753 471749 475743
      478719 482698
 0.01 399213 397207 394202 388195 381188 372182 363177 359178
      357183 362190 370197 378203 386210 392213 398214 399213
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 275809 275803 272799 268798 266798 262801 258803 257807
      259811 262815 266816 270814 274812 275809
 0.25 461723 459718 457715 452707 449704 444702 434701 426698
      422697 420693 421680 420674 418667 416664 412663 409665
      406668 394686 389694 383703 375719 367737 366741 367748
      367760 366764 366771 367778 366783 365789 362789 356790
      349790 345792 342794 336801 334805 332811 329821 323841
      319849 316854 315859 312867 307875 298894 290908 288912
      286919 285933 284943 284949 284956 287960 290960 295961
      300960 315951 320942 325934 328926 331915 336892 341884
      345877 350867 354857 358848 363841 369834 376828 383822
      387820 389819 390822 389831 390838 395849 399855 405862
      413868 417870 421869 425858 427847 428840 429835 432824
      435816 440806 446799 452798 456795 460743 460731 461723
 0.25 423931 423928 423926 423924 422922 421923 421924 420926
      419928 419929 418931 418933 418935 419938 421938 422935
      423933 423931
 0.25 384083 383077 382071 378065 373063 370062 367063 369069
      370077 370084 373090 375096 378097 380095 382089 382084
      384083
 0.25 371052 368051 367049 363047 362047 358046 354046 353047
      351051 352053 354056 357057 361057 363056 366055 368053
      371052
 0.25 351117 350112 348108 346105 345101 344094 342091 338091
      337097 338102 339106 341111 344114 347117 351117
 0.25 313017 314012 313009 306006 298003 289002 283999 280999
      277001 275004 275009 280014 287017 294020 301021 306022
      310022 313017
 0.50 452755 453747 452740 450732 449727 449721 447715 443712
      437713 427716 415715 408717 404720 401725 400730 401737
      403739 397741 390747 387751 384756 381780 370797 367805
      361815 349830 344837 341842 339846 338852 340854 347847
      350844 352841 356829 358825 362825 368826 371822 376814
      380803 384793 385788 389784 392782 396779 402770 407762
      409758 416755 421756 423759 428762 431767 436775 440778
      446777 449772 450766 452755
 0.50 416686 416681 414677 410677 408680 399691 389702 385708
      382716 377730 375740 375743 377746 382744 385741 387737
      390730 393724 399719 402713 410700 413694 416686
 0.50 425794 423789 421785 417784 412786 408788 405790 404794
      406798 408801 412805 415806 418802 420799 425796 425794
 0.50 412737 410737 409737 410739 412737 412737
 0.50 379080 379078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376069 375068
      374068 373070 373071 372073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379081 379080
 0.50 326896 326891 326885 324882 321881 320881 318879 313878
      310879 305886 302893 299899 295904 291910 289918 288929
      289939 290950 291952 296952 303950 308945 312939 315932
      320917 325902 326896
 1.00 315911 316905 315898 313895 307895 302902 297908 294912
      293916 292929 292933 293937 294941 297945 305941 308937
      310933 312924 315913 315911
 1.50 312916 312907 311905 308903 304904 302907 300912 299918
      297924 296931 296934 297936 299939 301939 304935 307930
      309924 311918 312916
 2.00 303928 303927 301928 300931 301931 302931 303929 303928

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 474619 480626 486634 492644 498656 505673 507678 508685
      508693 506698 498704 493706 492710 491716 489719 482725
      476731 470737 463744 459749 458756 453777 447788 441798
      431809 427810 425808 422802 421797 420793 418793 416798
      410805 407809 406814 404818 404822 403828 405835 410835
      413840 415845 413851 413858 416861 419860 411877 409882
      409886 411889 418889 420886 423888 425886 430884 438882
      430890 429894 429899 427905 426909 421912 417912 413915
      412920 417921 420919 425919 429916 432918 438923 440925
      438930 431935 428938 426940 428942 426947 423947 420950
      417953 412955 394959 385959 380959 377957 375949 373945
      377940 379931 380928 378925 379921 380916 378916 375918
      376914 376909 379907 385899 397888 396862 397853 400842
      400836 398833 397834 393842 390853 389864 386873 382881
      374900 373905 370909 364917 362919 360919 356922 350928
      336945 330949 327957 319962 314968 312971 310975 311978
      313982 315983 317981 321975 325972 327977 327983 324993
      319003 318016 315021 312024 308017 305018 304022 305024
      306029 303034 291033 294030 294028 292027 284026 277027
      273028 268025 263021 256014 248009 240004 233999 232989
      232986 234982 240976 243973 245971 243970 243963 244958
      252941 259929 265922 269914 271908 274904 279896 287883
      292876 299871 302866 303862 296858 294853 293849 297848
      298846 295843 293839 294835 295830 296827 294824 284825
      279820 276818 272820 264819 258815 253809 251807 252804
      251797 251794 253793 260792 271791 275792 282792 288790
      292788 301783 311778 320772 325766 329760 338745 358717
      360713 364710 369702 374694 377690 378684 382665
 0.01 382665 383662 383660 384657 384655 385654 387652 389651
      390649 390648 392648 393645
 0.01 514838 514827 513817 511812 509809 506809 501808 496812
      490823 489828 489838 487854 486859 485861 486871 494877
      501875 504872 510861 513846 514838
 0.01 480249 473245 466243 459239 458233 455232 451232 451224
      452220 448222 446233 447236 445237 443234 443231 442227
      437226 436222 440219 444217 442214 439215 437217 433216
      431219 426219 420219 417215 422212 420207 417203 412201
      410202 406202 401200 398194 394194 388192 387188 389185
      390179 395183 397174 401168 403165 407164 408168 410167
      413169 415167 417161 419159 417153 411144 404145 400138
      395141 388139 386135 389127 394124 396123 398126 403130
      407131 406127 401117 409110 409103 406100 405104 403106
      400104 399101 397099 397094 399088 402072 401067 400064
      397058 396054 393052 388050 386052 382053 379049 377058
      366059 361060 359058 361056 364054 368055 373053 375051
      373048 371041 367043 368049 364049 362051 356055 349058
      339056 331055 334058 337058 342060 343063 344066 343068
      342070 340069 338071 334082 337086 338091 338096 340102
      340108 344117 344127 347132 348139 351143 355144 353142
      354138 361139 364142 367141 370138 372141 370147 374151
      372155 370154 369149 364149 359153 354148 350154 356161
      366165 369172 373173 375171 381171 384172 384175 383177
      384181 383185 381186 378180 378176 376175 371178 366178
      363177 361175 362172 364171 363168 359169 359176 359184
      361188 369191 376195 385203 393210 398214 403219 406220
      409218 413224 411226 408229 403228 400228 399230 400232
      404237 408240 413237 426244 432246 436246 441244 447245
      453244 462247 473250 477251 480249
 0.01 481239 482237 482234 481233 480232 479231 478229 477229
      476230 475232 474234 475237 476237 477239 478240 480240
      481239
 0.01 497005 489003 487998 487992 486987 480984 476984 472985
      464986 457983 453982 450981 448982 438983 436984 432984
      423984 415986 407982 403983 410998 411002 408006 404007
      405009 400014 395018 396022 393027 396030 398033 399037
      408038 410034 414033 412028 416027 419029 424030 426029
      433033 439031 444032 447031 450028 452029 452032 452038
      453038 457037 460035 465031 469026 469022 471019 473014
      476012 480012 484014 487015 489012 497005
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 391093 389092
      388093 387094 385095 385097 383095 382097 383098 385097
      385099 386102 388104 389105 391105 391104 392103
 0.01 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384108
 0.01 377110 377103 374100 376096 376091 372087 371086 371082
      373076 372074 369075 364076 363078 361078 360082 361084
      366087 370090 371094 366096 368101 372104 373107 372111
      369116 370119 372123 372116 374112 377110
 0.01 356111 355109 354105 352102 352099 351096 349094 347092
      346094 345098 347102 348105 349108 351109 353111 355113
      356111
 0.01 360071 358069 358067 358065 359062 359060 357058 356058
      354058 352060 352062 352064 351066 351068 351070 353070
      355070 356070 357071 358073 360071
 0.01 304983 304981 304979 304977 304975 303973 301975 301977
      301979 301981 301983 303984 304983
 0.01 299027 299025 298023 296023 294025 294027 295029 297029
      299027
 0.01 299981 297979 297977 295975 294975 293977 292978 291979
      291981 292983 293985 295984 296983 297982 299981
 0.01 286989 284988 282988 281989 282990 284990 286989
 0.25 464622 472634 477641 482647 485654 484661 484665 486667
      491672 493674 494679 493690 490697 486701 480705 474710
      470715 465722 457734 452742 450751 444763 442769 437775
      434778 430779 428776 428770 426767 423772 421776 419774
      421768 423762 425758 424754 424746 426738 428734 431730
      435728 437725 440721 440718 439712 440704 437700 430698
      428692 425689 421684 419683 416684 412688 410694 409702
      413701 418707 418713 420716 417736 416743 414744 411744
      405742 402746 405748 408746 411745 411748 409763 405769
      403776 402787 403792 402795 399797 398800 394806 389813
      386822 384828 382834 378840 375846 373855 371862 370869
      370873 367881 363888 354899 330916 314935 312939 309941
      301943 298944 296947 294950 292949 280953 275958 272960
      270958 272950 272942 272936 274932 276922 280910 284904
      288900 290893 294887 297882 303879 311876 316873 319865
      326856 332846 330844 327847 325854 320857 317854 313851
      314844 319841 320832 317828 308825 306822 310820 313819
      314811 309792 339758 347748 355738 371713 379700 384692
      387685 392674 399661 404656 410652 419649 426650 431653
      434657 440661 444661 447658 447651 445643 444635 445629
 0.25 378128 378127 378126 377125 375125 373127 374129 374131
      376130 377130 378128 378128
 0.25 380076 381074 381072 380069 378069 376071 376073 376075
      376076 377078 379077 380076
 0.25 367135 365133 364135 365136 367136 367135
 0.25 368108 368107 366108 365110 366111 367110 368110 368108
 0.25 361130 360128 359127 357129 358130 360131 361130
 0.25 314958 315955 313954 309954 305955 299954 297954 294952
      291956 293960 297962 303961 308960 312959 314958
 0.25 304831 302830 302832 304831 304831
 0.25 307998 306997 304996 303998 302999 302000 302001 304002
      306000 307998
 0.25 289974 290970 288968 283969 276970 273974 274980 270983
      265986 266990 270989 275988 281985 283981 287977 289974
 0.25 277009 273001 268994 264990 260993 260988 259978 259972
      257971 256974 252975 250978 249984 251988 253991 257994
      260001 265009 269011 273011 277009
 0.25 263966 264964 263964 262964 261965 260966 259968 258970
      259971 259970 261968 263967 263966
 0.50 485692 484686 483683 479678 471668 466653 464646 462642
      460640 454641 452648 453654 453661 448673 446679 448690
      450698 449705 448714 448719 447722 436746 434761 433767
      434769 436767 444756 446750 448744 450735 452729 456722
      459718 467708 471703 477700 482696 485692
 0.50 414672 414668 412664 408662 403665 400669 397675 395680
      394687 397692 404691 408686 411680 413675 414672
 0.50 393736 391731 388728 385726 380730 376737 373746 361757
      359758 358761 361762 363760 365764 365769 363774 359776
      357774 355766 351760 356752 361743 354745 349751 343759
      337766 334771 332776 332780 334783 333789 333795 336799
      334802 331806 329810 324809 321811 320821 322825 326824
      336819 340817 342813 340809 341804 347808 354802 358801
      358804 358810 362811 361817 358818 354816 351813 347811
      344812 344818 344825 342830 340835 339841 338852 335859
      328866 320873 316879 310884 301884 298886 295892 295902
      293910 289913 284914 282919 284925 283934 283938 286942
      294941 305939 309938 311935 310930 312927 320923 327915
      330912 333910 337908 338906 337904 331902 329900 334897
      335892 336890 339890 342891 340895 340897 344900 348897
      350892 354890 358888 360884 363874 362869 363863 366853
      371845 374837 385795 387791 386789 386778 389753 393736
 0.50 373726 373722 370721 368723 366726 364728 363730 361733
      360736 358738 362739 364737 367735 368734 370732 372729
      373726
 0.50 352881 353879 353877 352875 350875 348877 347879 347880
      346882 345884 344886 345887 347887 348888 349889 350888
      351887 351886 352883 352882 352881
 0.50 313956 310955 307956 305956 301957 297956 296956 295958
      296960 299960 301960 305959 308959 311958 313956
 0.50 306899 306897 306896 304895 304894 304895 303897 304898
      305899 306899 306899
 0.50 283974 283973 282972 281972 279972 279973 277974 277975
      279976 281976 283975 283974
 0.50 278985 277982 275982 274982 273983 272984 271984 272985
      273986 275986 277985 278985
 1.00 378778 377776 377774 376776 376778 377779 378778
 1.00 377796 378791 376788 373792 367804 368810 366815 362827
      358839 353833 343838 341845 341854 340861 337867 333870
      327872 323877 323883 324885 326885 331885 337884 340883
      341880 347871 353860 360860 370838 373824 375810 377796
 1.00 354788 353787 351789 353789 354788
 1.00 315913 308908 306904 304906 306912 304915 302909 299907
      299913 299917 296922 298928 298931 296931 294934 295937
      297938 305936 306934 302932 304928 307925 306923 303922
      312916 315913
 1.50 372819 372810 370806 368813 366819 364825 362832 361838
      360845 362850 365845 367838 369831 371826 372819
 1.50 352842 348841 345840 343842 343849 344853 343858 342863
      343868 346866 349862 351857 352853 351846 352842
 1.50 341875 341874 341873 340871 339871 337871 336872 334873
      332874 330874 328875 328876 328878 329880 330880 330881
      332881 334881 336880 338879 339879 340878 341876 341875
 2.00 370817 368817 367820 366822 365826 365829 363832 362835
      362838 362843 364843 365840 366837 367833 368831 368827
      369824 370820 370817
 2.00 349855 349854 349853 347852 346853 345855 345858 344860
      344861 344862 344863 346864 347862 348861 348860 349857
      349856 349855

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 521269 522262 519254 515240 502217 500210 499201 492198
      486197 479203 472202 469202 468205 464205 461203 459202
      456204 452202 449203 447201 448197 450195 454193 456189
      449187 447184 444183 440190 438187 436184 435181 436180
      435174 432171 429176 426179 425188 423188 421186 421178
      418173 415170 414172 417175 419190 416192 413193 410194
      406193 403193 401194 395198 392192 385190 379192 380197
      385200 385206 378213 383217 386218 397222 404222 408222
      407225 402227 399227 399231 403235 404242 413242 420242
      426246 432246 439246 442244 447242 450248 458250 485254
      487262 490266 494271 497276 502282 506286 516285
 0.01 520829 519815 517811 515809 509807 505807 503809 493817
      490819 489815 489805 487801 485800 482798 477798 469799
      460802 437816 434817 430818 427819 425824 425829 423832
      419839 409849 405853 402860 399867 396875 399883 403889
      403893 401895 398894 397899 394899 389902 386902 383902
      378904 375901 367909 364916 366921 367925 366928 363936
      364941 367938 369937 371938 376941 379943 382942 386946
      389945 389943 386941 388937 391938 393936 391928 401927
      412933 414931 418929 422933 424935 426940 433941 440945
      445951 447957 450950 451945 453944 455950 459952 462952
      469950 471948 470944 468933 472926 476925 477922 480920
      482924 487928 489929 491927 494919 500879 504863 510848
      514843 517838 520829
 0.01 495233 494228 492225 488222 484223 479222 475222 477225
      482229 483233 486237 490240 493241 494235 495233
 0.01 473237 473234 473232 471233 471234 469234 467235 465235
      464235 462236 463238 465238 467238 468238 470238 472238
      473237
 0.01 463238 462236 460236 459237 460239 461239 463238
 0.01 459240 458238 456238 455238 456241 458241 459240
 0.01 461225 460224 458224 457223 455224 453225 452225 453227
      454228 456228 458228 459227 460227 461225
 0.01 456241 454238 453239 451240 452242 454242 456241
 0.01 452698 450694 447693 441698 435702 434696 435691 436683
      437679 436674 430658 427652 423651 413646 409645 407650
      403651 395653 391655 390658 387663 382669 378675 374682
      365709 357720 350728 344732 339734 334739 331744 310763
      301773 296777 290780 280785 273787 268789 264794 261799
      257801 258802 260805 263807 267812 267817 265820 265835
      262849 263859 266865 271869 277870 280871 279875 277881
      271890 265901 252926 245938 242944 238948 236953 236956
      237964 237967 239970 242970 246972 251976 251984 252992
      254995 257994 261988 261984 263980 266978 268975 269967
      269958 269953 272950 276946 283939 288927 290921 294917
      297911 298907 302906 313898 317891 321886 324881 328874
      330866 332860 334858 338857 341856 343854 342850 342845
      344842 348837 351839 348842 348844 352844 355846 359845
      363841 366840 366845 364849 362852 355856 355859 356859
      364859 364868 359877 361883 365889 367891 370892 378891
      383893 388888 388879 391872 393869 393863 391860 390854
      390849 388851 387849 388845 391843 393837 390838 388836
      389833 389830 390826 393819 395814 399808 412787 415788
      417790 419792 422789 427785 427781 424780 426772 427767
      434755 438752 440750 440747 440742 444741 443735 436734
      434734 431733 433723 437717 446707 450703 452698
 0.01 436196 436194 436192 437189 435186 434184 432183 430185
      429185 427187 428189 430190 430192 429195 431197 432197
      434198 436196
 0.01 423219 422217 421216 419218 420220 422221 423219
 0.01 405177 404167 401162 398163 394163 393160 393157 392153
      392149 388146 386143 385140 382140 381146 381149 383148
      388148 390153 393160 393168 398169 402172 403176 405177
      405177
 0.01 397057 385063 374064 369059 368056 372055 380056 381051
      377050 374048 365046 362045 360042 359040 356040 358044
      355047 353050 350052 346055 350062 352062 351058 356059
      361061 358061 356064 355069 352071 349074 345073 340071
      334075 329077 330079 334080 336078 338081 340083 343081
      349086 350088 356084 356080 358076 362077 364074 369073
      370070 373069 374073 373078 374082 376081 376078 378076
      377069 382067 386066 391066 395062 397057
 0.01 390020 390013 388011 387008 383012 379010 379013 381016
      381019 379024 380028 380033 384031 386029 388025 390020
 0.01 377934 377931 375929 374931 373934 375936 377934
 0.01 364092 364090 362087 361087 359087 357089 356091 357091
      358093 358094 360094 362092 364092 364092
 0.01 369003 368997 368993 368987 364985 360985 356982 355989
      343989 338995 335999 333001 333004 332011 334017 332023
      333028 333032 335034 338036 340043 339050 336054 338056
      343059 342055 342051 343048 347046 346042 347038 350033
      352029 350024 350014 350011 351009 352006 354007 358017
      362020 363018 362012 360010 362007 369003
 0.01 365813 365811 364810 362812 361813 360814 359815 358817
      357818 357819 358820 359821 361818 363816 364815 365813
 0.01 341078 341076 340074 338076 336078 338080 339080 341078
 0.25 517273 517263 516254 513246 509238 505233 501232 499235
      500245 499255 500265 502273 508278 512279 515277 517273
 0.25 488213 486210 482209 477210 474209 469210 465211 462213
      460217 464220 468220 472218 475217 478215 484215 487213
      488213
 0.25 482832 483824 478824 475827 472829 469833 466836 465841
      468843 468846 471845 474842 478839 481835 482832
 0.25 464817 463816 461817 460817 461819 463819 464817
 0.25 464871 464868 464866 462865 461866 460867 460869 461870
      461871 462873 462874 463873 464872 464871
 0.25 461820 459818 458820 460821 461820
 0.25 445218 442217 439219 436221 433222 428226 422231 418230
      415231 411230 415236 419237 420235 422234 424235 428237
      432236 434233 439229 440222 443220 445218
 0.25 425684 423679 420677 412675 405672 400673 394674 389679
      385685 376700 372708 368716 358730 345738 340742 334750
      329757 324763 313775 308780 306783 301784 295789 294793
      294797 287804 285806 283804 278804 276805 276807 276813
      280815 289815 294809 303815 300823 301828 301834 296841
      295844 293849 287852 284855 283858 288859 291856 293855
      296857 301859 304856 306852 308851 309854 308861 311863
      313866 316866 319864 320860 319858 313855 313850 322852
      325849 327845 328842 326840 321840 317841 315839 315836
      319828 321826 321821 323818 326820 328825 332824 336822
      340819 341816 344814 351809 360806 364799 370795 372786
      371779 371773 374769 379768 380764 377761 375760 377755
      379751 380747 380743 382738 384736 388734 391739 391742
      393741 394737 397733 401730 406723 411716 415710 418711
      417707 418704 422702 423699 425684
 0.25 408215 407213 405211 404211 402211 401211 400211 398212
      397213 398214 399215 399216 401216 402216 403216 405217
      406216 408215
 0.25 328796 325795 323796 319797 316801 313804 309806 305808
      308810 311808 317807 320805 323803 326799 328796
 0.25 324874 320873 318875 312878 310880 305880 302876 293872
      290872 289876 287881 284884 284888 280894 278900 277904
      278908 281910 286908 291906 300897 305894 309893 316883
      321878 324874
 0.25 291835 290833 289833 287831 286832 284833 285835 286836
      288837 290837 291835 291835
 0.25 283838 284835 282834 279834 275836 273838 272841 270843
      269845 268847 269849 272849 274848 276846 277844 279842
      281840 283838
 0.50 515267 515264 514259 514255 513252 511249 510246 508243
      505244 505250 506253 506257 507261 508264 509267 511270
      514269 515267
 0.50 471216 470214 468214 467214 468216 470216 471216
 0.50 418686 414682 410680 404678 400678 395680 391683 385692
      373711 362727 358732 354735 349738 345741 339748 333756
      325766 318773 312781 307788 302792 301794 300798 304800
      308801 311800 314796 319794 330791 333791 331794 331801
      327805 321807 317810 317813 324813 328811 338805 336801
      335799 338798 345793 349789 352786 351791 350792 349795
      350800 355801 357803 359801 361796 364791 366787 365780
      367773 369768 373763 372755 375746 378734 383722 389714
      393710 396709 399709 403710 408707 414696 418686
 0.50 365746 361745 358750 356753 353757 352760 349765 351769
      354767 358765 361760 362757 364753 365748 365746
 0.50 340784 340783 339782 338780 337779 336778 335776 334777
      332778 332779 331781 332783 332784 333785 333787 335789
      337789 338787 339786 340784 340784
 0.50 337817 336817 335817 334818 332819 332820 334820 336820
      336819 337817 337817
 0.50 316881 316879 314879 311882 304886 300889 298887 297882
      294879 292880 291883 290887 289892 286895 284898 284904
      288905 291902 297897 300893 304891 308890 311887 316881
 0.50 310837 310836 308837 306837 305837 304838 303839 302840
      302842 303844 303846 303848 303846 304844 305843 306842
      306841 308840 308839 310837 310837
 0.50 289812 288811 286810 285812 286814 288813 289812
 1.00 372729 372727 371725 371724 371725 369726 368728 366730
      368731 369732 370732 371731 372730 372729
 1.00 367732 366732 366730 364730 364731 363731 361733 360734
      361735 363735 365733 366732 367732
 1.00 367755 368752 367752 367753 367755 367755
 1.00 364769 364767 363766 363767 363769 364769 364769
 1.00 361736 356737 351740 343748 335758 329766 322775 318781
      320783 323782 325780 328776 336767 345761 348755 351751
      358741 361736
 1.50 353744 351743 350744 349745 348746 347747 347748 346750
      346752 347752 349750 350749 350748 351746 352746 353744


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 010823
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
TVR 35 NE JAN 20 WNW NMM 20 SE NMM 60 SE MEI PQL 35 NNE 1B7
25 NNE GSM 35 NE KEHC 10 SW KCRH 25 SSE KXIH 20 SSW KXIH
20 WSW GLS HOU 15 NE CXO 30 NNW JAS 25 SSE MLU TVR.


UPPER TX COAST---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST FROM THE UPPER TX COAST---ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LA AND
INTO SOUTHERN MS.  THE FORECAST BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY FIRING
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
SOUTHWEST LA.  CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS THIS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TX AND
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE WITH
RESPECT TO THE DETAILS---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED
PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN MS---ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. THE 0000 HI RES ARW AND
NSSL WRF EXEMPLIFY THE SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY---BOTH
SHOWING CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA
THIS MORNING PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WAS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONTINUITY IN BOTH MODELS AND IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRR RUNS.    WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA
HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS THAT PRODUCE 1-2"+ PRECIP TOTALS IN A SHORT
PERIOD.  PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION #0158
VALID FROM 0900-1500 UTC FOR ADDTIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA.

OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

HI RES MODEL CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF THE CURRENT AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS FOR IT TO BE
PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHORTLY AFTER THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...12000 UTC SUNDAY.  RAINFALL
RATES OF .50-1" PER HOUR MAY LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD---WITH ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION---BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS ORGANIZED AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/1200 UTC THRU MAY 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WILL
ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE USED FOR DETAILS TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS RESULTS IN A BROAD REGION OF .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TOTALS---AS PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IN MANY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY---EQUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PW VALUES 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER---WITH SUCH SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS RESULTING IN THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED PRIMARILY.

SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE LA COAST AND UPPER TX COAST DAY 1.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL
AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.  SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS
USED PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
MS---ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.  WITH THE
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AT
THE MOMENT---GIVEN NO CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS---DAY 1
QPF KEPT PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HERE.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST---BECOMING
MORE SHEARED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN---THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMMB ARE SHOWING A MORE
DEFINED STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  CAN NOT SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
HI RES DETAIL IS NOT POSSIBLE---BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLER
SCALE OF THESE PRECIP AREAS---CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.

MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT OVER OVER THE MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION IN THE
0000 TO O600 UTC PERIOD MONDAY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 482698 480683 476676 471670 469668 466667 461670 456670
      447670 434655 428651 420647 411650 405653 401657 394663
      390670 382683 374698 366713 353728 347735 343744 339751
      335760 332768 330774 329780 326797 325802 322806 315813
      309828 307837 306840 306847 302868 299878 297884 294889
      283903 275918 275922 277925 277929 275931 270940 266949
      260964 253980 251989 247998 256016 318044 323076 327079
      328086 328091 326098 326104 328108 334115 344131 348137
      352139 356138 358136 360130 366124 373119 378112 382103
      385095 390091 393088 395082 397076 398071 396066 398060
      407057 410056 411055 409049 380033 376034 370034 366032
      363027 363023 365022 368023 375020 379017 379012 380007
      378003 375982 375974 374970 374962 372958 369955 366954
      362957 358961 355966 350967 345967 341965 337962 337959
      343954 358944 363936 365932 363927 355911 355900 355893
      356888 357882 359877 367873 374867 380858 386878 388881
      389882 394885 398896 402906 403911 404917 398933 398957
      398969 398976 399981 403991 409996 415996 418993 424985
      429979 432976 434970 437954 438941 440928 441916 445899
      449879 450868 453857 456845 457833 460820 463815 464810
      468798 468793 468785 468773 467759 469753 471749 475743
      478719 482698
 0.01 399213 397207 394202 388195 381188 372182 363177 359178
      357183 362190 370197 378203 386210 392213 398214 399213
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 275809 275803 272799 268798 266798 262801 258803 257807
      259811 262815 266816 270814 274812 275809
 0.25 461723 459718 457715 452707 449704 444702 434701 426698
      422697 420693 421680 420674 418667 416664 412663 409665
      406668 394686 389694 383703 375719 367737 366741 367748
      367760 366764 366771 367778 366783 365789 362789 356790
      349790 345792 342794 336801 334805 332811 329821 323841
      319849 316854 315859 312867 307875 298894 290908 288912
      286919 285933 284943 284949 284956 287960 290960 295961
      300960 315951 320942 325934 328926 331915 336892 341884
      345877 350867 354857 358848 363841 369834 376828 383822
      387820 389819 390822 389831 390838 395849 399855 405862
      413868 417870 421869 425858 427847 428840 429835 432824
      435816 440806 446799 452798 456795 460743 460731 461723
 0.25 423931 423928 423926 423924 422922 421923 421924 420926
      419928 419929 418931 418933 418935 419938 421938 422935
      423933 423931
 0.25 384083 383077 382071 378065 373063 370062 367063 369069
      370077 370084 373090 375096 378097 380095 382089 382084
      384083
 0.25 371052 368051 367049 363047 362047 358046 354046 353047
      351051 352053 354056 357057 361057 363056 366055 368053
      371052
 0.25 351117 350112 348108 346105 345101 344094 342091 338091
      337097 338102 339106 341111 344114 347117 351117
 0.25 313017 314012 313009 306006 298003 289002 283999 280999
      277001 275004 275009 280014 287017 294020 301021 306022
      310022 313017
 0.50 452755 453747 452740 450732 449727 449721 447715 443712
      437713 427716 415715 408717 404720 401725 400730 401737
      403739 397741 390747 387751 384756 381780 370797 367805
      361815 349830 344837 341842 339846 338852 340854 347847
      350844 352841 356829 358825 362825 368826 371822 376814
      380803 384793 385788 389784 392782 396779 402770 407762
      409758 416755 421756 423759 428762 431767 436775 440778
      446777 449772 450766 452755
 0.50 416686 416681 414677 410677 408680 399691 389702 385708
      382716 377730 375740 375743 377746 382744 385741 387737
      390730 393724 399719 402713 410700 413694 416686
 0.50 425794 423789 421785 417784 412786 408788 405790 404794
      406798 408801 412805 415806 418802 420799 425796 425794
 0.50 412737 410737 409737 410739 412737 412737
 0.50 379080 379078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376069 375068
      374068 373070 373071 372073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379081 379080
 0.50 326896 326891 326885 324882 321881 320881 318879 313878
      310879 305886 302893 299899 295904 291910 289918 288929
      289939 290950 291952 296952 303950 308945 312939 315932
      320917 325902 326896
 1.00 315911 316905 315898 313895 307895 302902 297908 294912
      293916 292929 292933 293937 294941 297945 305941 308937
      310933 312924 315913 315911
 1.50 312916 312907 311905 308903 304904 302907 300912 299918
      297924 296931 296934 297936 299939 301939 304935 307930
      309924 311918 312916
 2.00 303928 303927 301928 300931 301931 302931 303929 303928

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/1200 UTC THRU MAY 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES WILL
ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  CONFIDENCE ON THE
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE USED FOR DETAILS TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS RESULTS IN A BROAD REGION OF .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TOTALS---AS PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IN MANY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY---EQUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PW VALUES 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER---WITH SUCH SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS RESULTING IN THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED PRIMARILY.

SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK EARLY THIS MORNING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE LA COAST AND UPPER TX COAST DAY 1.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD MODEL TO MODEL
AND A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.  SUBSEQUENLTY---CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER THAN NORMAL SIDE---WITH THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS
USED PRIMARILY---RESULTING IN THE MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
MS---ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.  WITH THE
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG VALUES----ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
TX/SOUTHERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AT
THE MOMENT---GIVEN NO CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS---DAY 1
QPF KEPT PRECIP TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HERE.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PRESS STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST---BECOMING
MORE SHEARED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN---THE LATEST HI RES ARW AND NMMB ARE SHOWING A MORE
DEFINED STREAK OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM EAST CENTRAL NM INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  CAN NOT SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
HI RES DETAIL IS NOT POSSIBLE---BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLER
SCALE OF THESE PRECIP AREAS---CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH LIGHTER
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED.

MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  NIGHT OVER OVER THE MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION IN THE
0000 TO O600 UTC PERIOD MONDAY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 482698 480683 476676 471670 469668 466667 461670 456670
      447670 434655 428651 420647 411650 405653 401657 394663
      390670 382683 374698 366713 353728 347735 343744 339751
      335760 332768 330774 329780 326797 325802 322806 315813
      309828 307837 306840 306847 302868 299878 297884 294889
      283903 275918 275922 277925 277929 275931 270940 266949
      260964 253980 251989 247998 256016 318044 323076 327079
      328086 328091 326098 326104 328108 334115 344131 348137
      352139 356138 358136 360130 366124 373119 378112 382103
      385095 390091 393088 395082 397076 398071 396066 398060
      407057 410056 411055 409049 380033 376034 370034 366032
      363027 363023 365022 368023 375020 379017 379012 380007
      378003 375982 375974 374970 374962 372958 369955 366954
      362957 358961 355966 350967 345967 341965 337962 337959
      343954 358944 363936 365932 363927 355911 355900 355893
      356888 357882 359877 367873 374867 380858 386878 388881
      389882 394885 398896 402906 403911 404917 398933 398957
      398969 398976 399981 403991 409996 415996 418993 424985
      429979 432976 434970 437954 438941 440928 441916 445899
      449879 450868 453857 456845 457833 460820 463815 464810
      468798 468793 468785 468773 467759 469753 471749 475743
      478719 482698
 0.01 399213 397207 394202 388195 381188 372182 363177 359178
      357183 362190 370197 378203 386210 392213 398214 399213
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 275809 275803 272799 268798 266798 262801 258803 257807
      259811 262815 266816 270814 274812 275809
 0.25 461723 459718 457715 452707 449704 444702 434701 426698
      422697 420693 421680 420674 418667 416664 412663 409665
      406668 394686 389694 383703 375719 367737 366741 367748
      367760 366764 366771 367778 366783 365789 362789 356790
      349790 345792 342794 336801 334805 332811 329821 323841
      319849 316854 315859 312867 307875 298894 290908 288912
      286919 285933 284943 284949 284956 287960 290960 295961
      300960 315951 320942 325934 328926 331915 336892 341884
      345877 350867 354857 358848 363841 369834 376828 383822
      387820 389819 390822 389831 390838 395849 399855 405862
      413868 417870 421869 425858 427847 428840 429835 432824
      435816 440806 446799 452798 456795 460743 460731 461723
 0.25 423931 423928 423926 423924 422922 421923 421924 420926
      419928 419929 418931 418933 418935 419938 421938 422935
      423933 423931
 0.25 384083 383077 382071 378065 373063 370062 367063 369069
      370077 370084 373090 375096 378097 380095 382089 382084
      384083
 0.25 371052 368051 367049 363047 362047 358046 354046 353047
      351051 352053 354056 357057 361057 363056 366055 368053
      371052
 0.25 351117 350112 348108 346105 345101 344094 342091 338091
      337097 338102 339106 341111 344114 347117 351117
 0.25 313017 314012 313009 306006 298003 289002 283999 280999
      277001 275004 275009 280014 287017 294020 301021 306022
      310022 313017
 0.50 452755 453747 452740 450732 449727 449721 447715 443712
      437713 427716 415715 408717 404720 401725 400730 401737
      403739 397741 390747 387751 384756 381780 370797 367805
      361815 349830 344837 341842 339846 338852 340854 347847
      350844 352841 356829 358825 362825 368826 371822 376814
      380803 384793 385788 389784 392782 396779 402770 407762
      409758 416755 421756 423759 428762 431767 436775 440778
      446777 449772 450766 452755
 0.50 416686 416681 414677 410677 408680 399691 389702 385708
      382716 377730 375740 375743 377746 382744 385741 387737
      390730 393724 399719 402713 410700 413694 416686
 0.50 425794 423789 421785 417784 412786 408788 405790 404794
      406798 408801 412805 415806 418802 420799 425796 425794
 0.50 412737 410737 409737 410739 412737 412737
 0.50 379080 379078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376069 375068
      374068 373070 373071 372073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379081 379080
 0.50 326896 326891 326885 324882 321881 320881 318879 313878
      310879 305886 302893 299899 295904 291910 289918 288929
      289939 290950 291952 296952 303950 308945 312939 315932
      320917 325902 326896
 1.00 315911 316905 315898 313895 307895 302902 297908 294912
      293916 292929 292933 293937 294941 297945 305941 308937
      310933 312924 315913 315911
 1.50 312916 312907 311905 308903 304904 302907 300912 299918
      297924 296931 296934 297936 299939 301939 304935 307930
      309924 311918 312916
 2.00 303928 303927 301928 300931 301931 302931 303929 303928

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 010056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE RAM 40 SE KDLP 15 NE 1B7 20 NNW MOB 20 NNW PNS 45 SSE NPA
30 SE RAM.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 1A5 25 SSE TRI 10 N UKF 15 SW INT 10 SSW EQY 20 SW HQU
15 ESE ATL 15 NNE 47A 20 NNW 1A5.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...

2100 UTC UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THE MODERATE RISK AND TRIMMED THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA...NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN
MS-AL...AND THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BASED ON THE PROGRESSION
AND OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF THE MCS. LATEST GOES-14 SRSO
LONGWAVE IR LOOPS SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING/LOWERING OF CLOUD
TOPS...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING TO THE LOWERING OF THE 1-3 HR
RAINFALL RATES PER THE LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING TRENDS...GIVEN THE CONTINUED W-E EXPANSE OF MOD-HEAVY
RAIN CORES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY STILL
IN PLAY DOWNWIND (MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG)...LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AROUND 2"/HOUR AND 3-4" WITHIN 3 HOURS WILL NONETHELESS LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT PARTICULARLY WELL OVERALL.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOTED A WET BIAS NORTH OF THE MCS...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME TOO SLOW WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

AS THE DECAYING MCS CONTINUES EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW...INCREASED LOW-MID LAYER SHEAR WILL
MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD COMPONENT...LEADING TO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.


...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHEAST GA...

2100 UTC UPDATE...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
DEEP-LAYER WAA/ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH A POOL OF MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG)...IS ALLOWING FOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...NORTHWEST SC...
EASTERN TN...AND WESTERN NC. FFG VALUES ARE HIGH INITIALLY (3-4"
WITHIN 3 HOURS)...HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION FOR RE-FIRING AND (THUS)
SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
CONTINUED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE GENESIS REGION...ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION AND
POTENTIALLY A FAIRLY RAPID DROP IN THE FFG FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BASED ON THE TERRAIN (CLIMATOLOGY).
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1-1.5" PER
THE LATEST WPCQPF...HOWEVER AS NOTED WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE (INCLUDED THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST)...ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT (~04Z) WHILE THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT.

HURLEY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 010050
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
850 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE RAM 40 SE KDLP 15 NE 1B7 20 NNW MOB 20 NNW PNS 45 SSE NPA
30 SE RAM.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 1A5 25 SSE TRI 10 N UKF 15 SW INT 10 SSW EQY 20 SW HQU
15 ESE ATL 15 NNE 47A 20 NNW 1A5.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...

2100 UTC UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THE MODERATE RISK AND TRIMMED THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA...NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN
MS-AL...AND THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BASED ON THE PROGRESSION
AND OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF THE MCS. LATEST GOES-14 SRSO
LONGWAVE IR LOOPS SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING/LOWERING OF CLOUD
TOPS...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING TO THE LOWERING OF THE 1-3 HR
RAINFALL RATES PER THE LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING TRENDS...GIVEN THE CONTINUED W-E EXPANSE OF MOD-HEAVY
RAIN CORES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY STILL
IN PLAY DOWNWIND (MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG)...LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AROUND 2"/HOUR AND 3-4" WITHIN 3 HOURS WILL NONETHELESS LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT PARTICULARLY WELL OVERALL.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOTED A WET BIAS NORTH OF THE MCS...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME TOO SLOW WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

AS THE DECAYING MCS CONTINUES EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW...INCREASED LOW-MID LAYER SHEAR WILL
MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD COMPONENT...LEADING TO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.


...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHEAST GA...

2100 UTC UPDATE...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
DEEP-LAYER WAA/ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH A POOL OF MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG)...IS ALLOWING FOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...NORTHWEST SC...
EASTERN TN...AND WESTERN NC. FFG VALUES ARE HIGH INITIALLY (3-4"
WITHIN 3 HOURS)...HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION FOR RE-FIRING AND (THUS)
SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
CONTINUED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE GENESIS REGION...ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION AND
POTENTIALLY A FAIRLY RAPID DROP IN THE FFG FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BASED ON THE TERRAIN (CLIMATOLOGY).
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1-1.5" PER
THE LATEST WPCQPF...HOWEVER AS NOTED WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE (INCLUDED THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST)...ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING (~01Z) WHILE
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT.

HURLEY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 302238
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
637 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/0000 UTC THRU MAY 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


2100 UTC UPDATE...MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE QPF FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OVER NORTHEAST GA INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE TRENDS IN SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
(HRRR ESPECIALLY). PROGRESSIVE...WEAKENING MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION
(SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION) WEST OF SIDE OF THE MESO-CONVECTIVE
VORT LOBE. HAVE LOWERED THE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST
(WESTERN GULF COAST)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RAISED AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA EAST TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
WITH THE LINGERING...INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM RAINFALL FROM THE
WEAKENING MCS.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
LA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MS AND THEN WEAKENS AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS WITH TIME...PLUS
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THE MODELS TRIGGER
SHOWER/STORMS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.  THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAKER THAN TODAY...FINDING A RELIABLE AREA
OF LIFT MORE DIFFICULT THAN TODAY.

THE HIGH RES RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION
OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LA SUNDAY. THE WRF
RUNS FROM NSSL/ARW/NMMB AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM SHOW A MAXIMUM
IN THIS AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.  HOWEVER...WITH A WEAKER FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET AND
EVEN ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOCAL BOUNDARIES
ARE NEEDED TO GENERATE LIFT...LIKE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.
MANUAL QPF WAS LIGHTER THAN THE HIGH RES RUNS AS THE RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE DIAGNOSTICS FOR SUSTAINED LIFT.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INT HE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS HAS LED TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN TN/GA
IN THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE RETURN THEN GETS LIFTED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ENHANCED TOTALS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES RUNS..INCLUDING THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE 12Z CONUS NEST NAM IN EITHER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR IN MS/LA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW ONE QPF MAXIMA IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION TONIGHT IN
NEBRASKA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SUPPORTS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO PA AND
NY.  AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FOCUSES SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A
PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN LONG ISLAND SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES RUNS CLUSTER NORMALLY WITH
TYPICAL TIMING/AMOUNT DIFFERENCES. A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND
WAS USED.

BIGGER DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO WHERE/WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORM....AS THE
AIRMASS RECOVERS AFTER THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.  A MAXIMA IN THE
700 MB CONVERGENCE INT HE GFS FORECAST FOCUSES ENHANCED TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE CMC
GEM...NSSL WRF AND A MULTI-MODEL/SREF MEAN QPF AMOUNTS WERE USED
PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW
EJECTING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF AZ INTO NM SUNDAY.  A COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AZ ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND
NORTHERN NM.  PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY COUPLED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WITH ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.
MANUAL PROGS USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 09Z SREF MEAN QPF.


DAYS 2/3...

***MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND***

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES
PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY, TRACKING NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  STRONG MID-UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW YORK WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.
 THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RAIN, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY.  FARTHER SOUTH, RIGHT ENTRANCE JET
DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


***GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST***

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
POSITION OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.  MODEL QPFS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
WILL BECOME BETTER DEPICTED IN LATER MODEL RUNS.  WE GENERALLY
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/BIASED CORRECTED MODEL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.  CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH, THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS THAT WERE ISSUED OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE OWING TO ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAIN
AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE AREAS.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CELLS.


***INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST MOUNTAINS***

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  FARTHER
WEST, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOST AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 470759 467730 466724 465720 462708 459704 456702 449698
      443693 435690 418682 411678 405673 399669 388676 384680
      382684 379691 375700 374710 371719 366726 359742 355751
      353755 350758 345766 338773 328779 321784 313790 310792
      306797 303805 300808 300813 302816 301819 298819 294817
      289817 286816 286821 287825 291826 300830 304831 306832
      307835 304842 300851 298854 293855 282857 278860 276865
      274870 273873 273877 274884 275890 275897 269915 268917
      269923 271933 275952 275965 277968 275974 278993 282004
      283009 280014 278020 278023 284029 290030 295033 303037
      306039 312040 316045 322052 327059 328070 328081 329087
      327091 323098 323105 324109 326118 330122 334125 340134
      341140 344141 350142 355141 357141 358145 357151 353153
      354159 353162 355167 359174 359177 357177 353179 353184
      356188 359190 363192 367194 370197 386209 393214 397215
      398212 399208 398206 394203 391201 388197 383189 380185
      378179 376172 378167 376162 374159 372156 372153 373147
      379139 380136 383132 385129 389126 396122 401116 407112
      410107 410101 408095 406100 405105 404107 402107 399102
      397091 399085 402081 404076 405072 403069 401066 404064
      408066 415071 418074 420077 422088 423100 421105 421111
      419117 417121 412129 407136 403144 400149 397152 397157
      398161 402164 405164 411159 419152 423148 427145 435141
      438139 438131 436121 435115 435109 436103 440102 444100
      449100 453100 452095 450092 447091 440085 440078 445078
      448078 451080 452078 451073 449070 437057 434054 433049
      434043 435036 438028 440021 443009 444995 446989 446981
      450879 452867 455856 458828 462803 465792 469784 470778
      470771 469763 470759
 0.01 399949 399944 398940 398936 396932 394923 391915 385917
      379921 373925 366928 361932 355935 352937 350938 349936
      344928 342922 340919 337917 334917 332920 328926 322940
      319947 316954 309967 308973 308979 312986 319998 324004
      331007 338005 343001 353989 355987 358986 360985 365984
      371987 376989 380990 382992 386992 389994 391989 394972
      397961 398953 399949
 0.01 275009 274009 274007 273006 271005 271004 271005 269006
      268007 267008 266009 267011 269013 271014 271013 273012
      273011 274009 275009
 0.01 257004 256000 253996 249995 244995 240993 237995 238997
      242999 244002 247006 251007 255006 257004
 0.25 454769 451739 450732 448727 443719 439716 434715 423716
      418716 414712 411708 406706 397711 391718 386725 382735
      378744 375756 372766 366775 360783 358786 353786 348785
      344787 338795 330801 325803 322806 319812 319818 319826
      320834 320841 319845 317850 314852 307858 303861 298863
      292862 286862 282865 280869 282894 278915 277919 277925
      279931 281935 285939 290943 294945 298945 306940 314935
      318927 321918 325909 328905 332903 337900 340895 343889
      346886 353881 356881 357883 360886 363890 366892 371892
      375891 384887 393891 401895 407895 410898 411907 410915
      409931 408957 409985 410992 412996 417005 421010 427012
      431009 433004 436992 438981 437976 436971 434966 434958
      434942 434926 434917 434908 436895 441872 443861 443845
      446816 450789 453780 454769
 0.25 399053 400048 399044 398041 394041 383048 380042 376037
      364029 361023 356019 352019 349021 345027 331053 333056
      336058 343060 345062 346065 344068 340072 337079 337088
      336097 336108 339123 344128 351131 357130 362126 371114
      380107 382102 383097 384086 385056 399053
 0.25 313022 313018 313013 311011 309011 305010 302010 300011
      298013 296015 296019 297021 299023 301024 305025 308026
      311024 313022
 0.50 441772 440764 439756 437751 434748 429746 424744 420744
      415747 411745 408741 406735 404731 399729 393731 390735
      388742 385751 382762 378772 376778 372782 365788 361790
      355792 350789 344793 338801 333809 326814 325817 325822
      326833 330842 333856 336859 342859 345858 349859 352864
      357872 361874 367875 371873 378873 388872 392872 395870
      402864 410856 414853 419853 426859 428865 430870 433871
      432869 432864 434852 434836 434820 433813 433807 436792
      439782 441772
 0.50 425971 426966 425961 424958 423954 422952 421949 419950
      417953 416956 415959 415963 414968 415973 416975 419977
      422975 424973 425971
 0.50 379085 381080 380075 376069 371066 366066 356073 349073
      346076 345079 344088 345096 347102 346110 346117 350123
      354124 359118 362112 365106 367101 369100 372095 375087
      379085
 0.50 370055 371051 371047 367041 362040 357038 353036 351037
      347042 345048 343052 345054 352057 357060 361060 365061
      368061 370057 370055
 0.50 338893 336893 335895 335896 335897 335898 337898 337897
      338895 338893 338893
 0.50 328874 325868 319864 314862 310864 301867 296867 293865
      290863 286864 283868 282871 283883 285892 283902 282911
      282917 282923 286929 289931 294932 301929 306924 314921
      316911 318902 321894 325887 328878 328874
 1.00 421785 421780 421775 419771 417771 414771 412772 410775
      408777 409782 409787 412788 414790 416792 418794 420794
      420792 420787 421785
 1.00 388795 387792 383791 376794 370797 363798 355800 349804
      345808 341814 339820 336826 334833 335837 339838 346836
      351833 361823 366823 372826 378825 382820 384814 386806
      388795
 1.00 313884 312877 308873 301872 294872 292868 290865 286866
      284870 285879 287893 288899 287906 288912 291918 295920
      300918 303914 306907 309894 311888 313884
 1.50 361814 360808 356807 351806 347809 344814 345818 347818
      350815 351820 349824 353827 355824 358820 360816 361814
 1.50 346825 345823 344823 343822 343823 342823 340825 338827
      338828 337830 337831 336832 337834 339834 340832 341832
      342831 343829 344828 345827 345825 346825
 1.50 309882 308878 305875 294875 291872 290868 287869 286871
      286876 287883 289893 291904 291909 293913 297912 299907
      300901 298897 298892 301888 308884 309882
 2.00 356819 356818 354819 353819 352821 352822 352823 354822
      355821 356819 356819
 2.00 350811 350810 348811 346814 348814 348813 350811 350811
 2.00 303884 298880 294877 288876 288883 289889 291897 292904
      295908 297903 296897 296890 300886 303884
 3.00 295903 295901 293899 293897 293895 293893 293895 293897
      293899 293900 294901 294903 295904 295903
 3.00 292885 292883 292881 290880 290881 289883 290885 291887
      292885 292885

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 287808 291809 296809 300810 305808 309806 312803 317796
      319793 320787 322778 325769 328761 332752 335743 339736
      344730 350723 355715 359696 361686 364678 371667 377659
      380658 387652 405636 433626 456642 462649 467657 473664
      480664 487666 494673 497677 497682 495694 491716 485725
      479731 477735 475741 475748 473753 465772 460781 457789
      452797 449806 446814 443825 436849 428867 424870 418870
      414869 411865 401853 397849 393847 385843 375842 370849
      367853 366858 363866 364879 363894 361904 360910 359913
      361916 364918 366923 369928 370933 370940 368945 366951
      364954 361963 360966 363967 368967 372965 376967 381967
      385970 391976 396983 400991 403000 406010 408021 410048
      411055 414059 417064 415068 415073 413076 409077 403085
      392097 393087 391088 389093 381098 379104 380109 384111
      388111 393110 396108 404102 406093 408092 410095 412106
      412111 417113 419116 417120 408121 406125 402126 397125
      391126 387129 385136 386139 391141 399138 400140 401148
      405151 410150 394175 388175 386169 385163 383159 380154
      376150 375147 373147 371152 369157 366157 365154 370147
      370142 366142 362139 359141 357143 354142 350139 349135
      347132 347130 344126 345120 343118 342113 343106 351104
      351097 348094 345096 345101 343104 340103 338102 336098
      336094 334089 331086 333080 337076 344072 348071 353068
      355065 353060 347057 342052 338052 329047 311042 300040
      293038 273032 265025 259019 253013 246009 238004 232999
      231987 235981 242974 248969 255964 260957 264950 266943
      270933 274924 281905 285894 288883 291873 293864 296856
      297851 297845 296837 295831 289825 287821 284818 275816
      260811 257804 254806 255810 255816 252815 249816 248818
      247823 245823 243821 242819 243813 245808 246802 247798
      249796 255795 259795 265795 274797 277801 278805 287808
 0.01 523955 523949 523944 520937 518935 514935 509937 504942
      501947 497953 495960 472969 455956 450957 447964 441976
      438983 437991 438000 440007 444012 450013 453012 455010
      460006 465011 470011 474012 476010 480009 482007 487005
      491000 495997 500998 505996 508991 513977 519966 523955
 0.01 482214 482211 481210 479210 477210 476211 474211 472211
      470213 468215 469218 470218 471216 472216 473215 475215
      475214 477213 479214 480214 482214 482214
 0.01 462221 462220 461219 459219 457218 456218 454218 453221
      454221 455221 457222 459222 460221 462221 462221
 0.01 461180 462178 461178 459177 457179 457182 459182 461180
      461180
 0.01 449219 445218 440217 436218 433219 429221 425222 423224
      425223 430224 434225 438223 441222 445221 449219
 0.01 453176 453174 453173 451171 451173 451175 451176 452176
      453176
 0.01 426242 425238 419236 414235 409234 404233 401235 403239
      408239 412239 416239 419240 424242 426242
 0.01 428187 429185 427187 425186 427187 428187 428187
 0.01 414224 416222 417220 415219 413219 413221 411223 412226
      414224 414224
 0.01 419159 420157 420154 420152 421150 419149 417151 416154
      416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161 419159 419159
 0.01 405217 400208 396205 393202 385194 380192 376187 373184
      366183 361183 360188 366190 370194 376201 380204 386207
      394213 398216 404218 405217
 0.01 379183 377182 376181 374181 372180 370181 372182 374182
      375183 377183 379183
 0.01 374111 374109 374107 373105 372104 370104 369106 368108
      368109 366110 366112 366115 367117 368119 370118 371118
      372116 372113 373113 374111
 0.25 478706 477696 475690 467683 462681 459677 453667 446656
      438645 433643 427644 415646 408650 403653 395661 388670
      383679 372704 362724 356733 349742 337760 331771 329777
      329784 332799 331809 330816 327822 322832 317841 312851
      308862 304878 296899 288922 281945 276957 272971 270975
      266980 259986 251988 248990 244994 242998 244000 261011
      266015 271017 282023 288025 295027 305027 311025 316022
      320019 323015 327005 328999 326993 325988 326983 330980
      333975 336970 339955 340949 340941 339932 341923 344911
      347899 349887 355857 359844 364834 370825 378818 388813
      394812 399812 404817 406822 411827 417830 420829 425824
      429814 434803 440792 444782 451772 463749 469737 473726
      476716 478706
 0.25 398210 397209 396207 395207 394207 393207 395208 396210
      397211 398210
 0.25 412071 411067 409064 404064 401065 398064 399062 400058
      398056 393061 390068 388071 388075 389080 391082 397078
      403074 402069 406070 412071
 0.25 408107 408105 408103 408100 407103 407105 407107 407109
      408107
 0.25 394115 394114 392114 391114 392115 394115 394115
 0.25 386790 386785 384783 379780 373777 369771 368768 365768
      358771 355776 351782 345794 343799 344807 347815 350820
      353822 356821 361817 367815 371814 373811 380800 386790
 0.25 386086 384083 383079 383072 381067 376066 373063 368063
      368066 371070 373073 373080 375083 380083 384083 386086
      386086
 0.25 373188 371188 370188 371188 373189 373188
 0.25 372053 370052 368052 370053 372053
 0.50 472711 472705 470701 468696 465692 460689 450686 447680
      445673 443664 441658 438653 434650 428649 420653 409657
      403661 399665 392673 386684 381694 371715 366726 360735
      353744 350749 348754 348758 352758 355756 363749 375765
      380768 384767 388762 391757 394753 398749 404741 410728
      418721 422717 425716 428719 428726 427743 427752 427760
      430774 429781 429788 433786 437781 444773 451763 456754
      462742 467730 470720 472711
 0.50 379078 380076 379074 378073 377073 377076 377078 377080
      379079 379078
 0.50 357832 356828 353828 347833 343835 339834 332837 326842
      322848 315862 309879 302894 296909 290927 286943 283952
      282962 283967 284971 286974 289976 294983 298983 301982
      320958 326942 332925 337909 340898 341888 343879 344871
      349853 357832
 0.50 318009 318003 315001 311001 297000 284998 277997 271995
      266994 261996 259002 262007 267011 271013 283017 288020
      294021 301021 307020 316014 318009
 1.00 462718 461713 458709 454710 453714 449723 446732 441740
      439750 439757 441762 444761 447757 451748 454739 459731
      462721 462718
 1.00 423684 422674 421671 418669 411670 405673 400678 396684
      393690 391697 391713 391723 389730 388737 392738 396736
      399731 403725 409713 412707 416701 419696 422689 423684
 1.00 330906 331900 330894 328883 327876 326875 323876 320884
      314890 307896 303903 300912 297920 294931 292939 290949
      290956 291960 294962 299963 306959 312953 316945 320937
      326919 330906
 1.00 293012 293010 291009 290008 289007 287007 286006 284006
      282007 282010 284010 285011 286012 287012 289013 291013
      293013 293012
 1.50 321911 321904 319900 312900 308903 303912 299922 298927
      298935 298942 297947 296951 297954 303954 306951 309947
      313937 316926 320915 321911
 2.00 313909 310907 308909 306913 304917 303922 303926 304931
      307930 308926 310922 312918 313911 313909


24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 455606 468614 488637 494648 499659 505673 507679 508687
      508693 507696 506702 499711 493713 489713 481720 477724
      472728 464734 454740 448742 445739 441733 440726 442713
      442705 442698 442691 441682 441674 440665 437651 436623
      455606
 0.01 520829 520816 518812 516811 511807 506807 499809 494815
      492820 489823 487821 481816 477816 475818 470822 467826
      460841 456854 452872 451882 451889 451894 453899 453902
      456904 462903 467898 470890 472884 474877 475873 477872
      478885 481890 486893 488894 490892 495888 499882 501876
      506870 509864 512856 513848 514844 516840 519834 520829
 0.01 494220 493215 494211 496206 494202 491199 487199 482202
      477207 471210 465211 461216 469219 475217 481219 489222
      494220
 0.01 481239 481236 480233 479233 478231 476231 474232 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 467237 462234 459231 450232 443233 435235 430236 425236
      422233 423227 427225 431225 438223 448224 452222 457222
      461220 459218 451214 434218 425219 417218 412219 408217
      407214 408210 404207 402207 399210 397205 394201 386196
      378189 372185 367182 364183 363186 365188 369190 376196
      383202 392206 396210 400211 407218 412222 410223 407228
      396226 396231 400234 402238 407240 410239 415240 424244
      429244 433244 449241 460239 467237
 0.01 471153 468147 465144 461146 460151 457155 451158 449160
      454164 458162 463161 467157 471153
 0.01 463178 461175 458176 454174 451171 449173 448180 445183
      442186 444189 448187 450185 454181 456182 459182 462179
      463178
 0.01 445206 446204 446201 444200 443198 442200 442203 442205
      443206 445206 445206
 0.01 452983 450977 448973 447971 444970 438971 435973 431977
      428980 424985 420994 418000 418008 418010 421012 425015
      434014 437011 441007 445996 450988 452983
 0.01 419693 417681 417677 415668 413662 410656 407651 402649
      397651 391655 385664 378675 374683 371693 366707 361716
      358721 354725 346734 334748 329752 326756 319764 311775
      309779 303782 293787 281792 276792 272791 258792 255792
      254794 255801 261801 259805 258809 260811 263815 274819
      284823 288825 295825 301826 306828 309833 309836 309840
      307845 303848 298855 290866 285876 279885 276888 273895
      264911 252929 245940 243943 241949 239955 239963 239975
      237980 236988 237998 238004 241010 243014 247016 252021
      258024 263026 270026 276026 281024 289016 293005 295992
      301970 305956 309943 319922 330904 342888 350878 357870
      364861 370850 378829 382819 384814 387808 390802 393796
      396784 396780 397777 397769 396764 397759 399755 410734
      415724 417714 419702 419693
 0.01 409154 410150 407147 402141 399138 391141 384138 381137
      380142 383147 388148 392151 395152 396156 396161 400162
      404158 407155 409154
 0.01 409117 410109 411102 410096 408092 406088 402087 400084
      399078 403076 404081 406081 409077 411074 412069 407065
      404063 406061 409059 407056 403055 400053 398054 394055
      391059 388061 383061 374062 372061 370059 371056 374055
      379056 383056 387054 390052 388050 380049 376048 372049
      362051 359052 356055 355060 351061 347070 346075 347080
      348086 350089 353091 358092 363097 366102 367107 363115
      360117 355116 349112 345113 344115 347118 350121 357125
      366126 369127 371129 375130 382127 389124 392121 394117
      409117
 0.01 311811 304809 296807 289806 282805 274803 271802 270804
      277807 284809 290812 297813 306814 310813 311811
 0.25 456619 470631 477641 484651 486656 485660 484662 481664
      477665 477669 479678 480684 479689 478691 472695 466695
      462691 460685 455670 450654 446639 445627 456619
 0.25 403692 402684 400679 396671 392670 389673 385681 372709
      369713 366717 361723 350735 334761 324775 320782 318786
      319789 321790 326794 328796 328799 326818 324830 320837
      311850 302861 294873 285888 281896 279905 279909 277912
      272917 262927 259932 259935 260938 264940 267938 269939
      270941 270946 270955 270960 271964 274966 279967 285964
      290960 294952 298945 301936 305929 312914 320902 340876
      348863 352857 353848 353840 355836 359829 363823 367814
      373801 379784 382774 384765 385755 387745 390727 397714
      401702 403692
 0.25 378080 378078 379076 378075 376075 375078 375080 377081
      378080
 0.25 262009 262007 263005 263002 262002 261002 260003 259004
      258006 258008 258009 260010 262009 262009
 0.50 468666 467659 465652 464647 462641 458640 454643 453648
      455653 458659 459664 462668 466670 468668 468666
 0.50 393701 392696 389695 383697 379702 376710 373715 369720
      361729 351741 348748 345754 342768 339782 338792 336799
      333806 332814 331830 331834 329837 323840 315852 310857
      307862 301874 298880 294884 289890 286896 284903 288910
      289918 286925 286932 285940 282949 281953 283955 285955
      290951 294945 296938 297930 299916 307902 313890 325868
      328864 330862 332867 334868 338868 340866 344860 346857
      345852 345847 347839 349833 356820 359814 362807 371781
      377747 378739 380732 385720 391710 393701
 0.50 327883 327881 325882 324883 325884 327883 327883
 0.50 324887 325885 323884 322885 320887 320890 322891 323889
      324887 324887
 1.00 372729 368729 366731 361736 357743 354748 348763 346772
      346781 345798 347808 349809 351808 359794 362787 364780
      367764 366752 367743 372729
 1.50 360781 360778 359776 359774 359773 358772 357770 356769
      356770 355772 355773 355775 354777 354779 354782 354784
      354786 355788 357789 357788 358786 358785 359783 359782
      360781


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 302238
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
637 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/0000 UTC THRU MAY 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


2100 UTC UPDATE...MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE QPF FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OVER NORTHEAST GA INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE TRENDS IN SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
(HRRR ESPECIALLY). PROGRESSIVE...WEAKENING MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION
(SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION) WEST OF SIDE OF THE MESO-CONVECTIVE
VORT LOBE. HAVE LOWERED THE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST
(WESTERN GULF COAST)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RAISED AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA EAST TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
WITH THE LINGERING...INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM RAINFALL FROM THE
WEAKENING MCS.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
LA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MS AND THEN WEAKENS AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS WITH TIME...PLUS
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THE MODELS TRIGGER
SHOWER/STORMS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.  THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAKER THAN TODAY...FINDING A RELIABLE AREA
OF LIFT MORE DIFFICULT THAN TODAY.

THE HIGH RES RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION
OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LA SUNDAY. THE WRF
RUNS FROM NSSL/ARW/NMMB AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM SHOW A MAXIMUM
IN THIS AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.  HOWEVER...WITH A WEAKER FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET AND
EVEN ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOCAL BOUNDARIES
ARE NEEDED TO GENERATE LIFT...LIKE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.
MANUAL QPF WAS LIGHTER THAN THE HIGH RES RUNS AS THE RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE DIAGNOSTICS FOR SUSTAINED LIFT.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INT HE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS HAS LED TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN TN/GA
IN THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE RETURN THEN GETS LIFTED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ENHANCED TOTALS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES RUNS..INCLUDING THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE 12Z CONUS NEST NAM IN EITHER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR IN MS/LA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW ONE QPF MAXIMA IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION TONIGHT IN
NEBRASKA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SUPPORTS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO PA AND
NY.  AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FOCUSES SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A
PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN LONG ISLAND SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES RUNS CLUSTER NORMALLY WITH
TYPICAL TIMING/AMOUNT DIFFERENCES. A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND
WAS USED.

BIGGER DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO WHERE/WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORM....AS THE
AIRMASS RECOVERS AFTER THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.  A MAXIMA IN THE
700 MB CONVERGENCE INT HE GFS FORECAST FOCUSES ENHANCED TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE CMC
GEM...NSSL WRF AND A MULTI-MODEL/SREF MEAN QPF AMOUNTS WERE USED
PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW
EJECTING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF AZ INTO NM SUNDAY.  A COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AZ ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND
NORTHERN NM.  PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY COUPLED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WITH ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.
MANUAL PROGS USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 09Z SREF MEAN QPF.


DAYS 2/3...

***MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND***

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES
PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY, TRACKING NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  STRONG MID-UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW YORK WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.
 THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RAIN, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY.  FARTHER SOUTH, RIGHT ENTRANCE JET
DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


***GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST***

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
POSITION OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.  MODEL QPFS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
WILL BECOME BETTER DEPICTED IN LATER MODEL RUNS.  WE GENERALLY
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/BIASED CORRECTED MODEL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.  CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH, THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS THAT WERE ISSUED OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE OWING TO ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAIN
AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE AREAS.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CELLS.


***INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST MOUNTAINS***

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  FARTHER
WEST, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOST AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 470759 467730 466724 465720 462708 459704 456702 449698
      443693 435690 418682 411678 405673 399669 388676 384680
      382684 379691 375700 374710 371719 366726 359742 355751
      353755 350758 345766 338773 328779 321784 313790 310792
      306797 303805 300808 300813 302816 301819 298819 294817
      289817 286816 286821 287825 291826 300830 304831 306832
      307835 304842 300851 298854 293855 282857 278860 276865
      274870 273873 273877 274884 275890 275897 269915 268917
      269923 271933 275952 275965 277968 275974 278993 282004
      283009 280014 278020 278023 284029 290030 295033 303037
      306039 312040 316045 322052 327059 328070 328081 329087
      327091 323098 323105 324109 326118 330122 334125 340134
      341140 344141 350142 355141 357141 358145 357151 353153
      354159 353162 355167 359174 359177 357177 353179 353184
      356188 359190 363192 367194 370197 386209 393214 397215
      398212 399208 398206 394203 391201 388197 383189 380185
      378179 376172 378167 376162 374159 372156 372153 373147
      379139 380136 383132 385129 389126 396122 401116 407112
      410107 410101 408095 406100 405105 404107 402107 399102
      397091 399085 402081 404076 405072 403069 401066 404064
      408066 415071 418074 420077 422088 423100 421105 421111
      419117 417121 412129 407136 403144 400149 397152 397157
      398161 402164 405164 411159 419152 423148 427145 435141
      438139 438131 436121 435115 435109 436103 440102 444100
      449100 453100 452095 450092 447091 440085 440078 445078
      448078 451080 452078 451073 449070 437057 434054 433049
      434043 435036 438028 440021 443009 444995 446989 446981
      450879 452867 455856 458828 462803 465792 469784 470778
      470771 469763 470759
 0.01 399949 399944 398940 398936 396932 394923 391915 385917
      379921 373925 366928 361932 355935 352937 350938 349936
      344928 342922 340919 337917 334917 332920 328926 322940
      319947 316954 309967 308973 308979 312986 319998 324004
      331007 338005 343001 353989 355987 358986 360985 365984
      371987 376989 380990 382992 386992 389994 391989 394972
      397961 398953 399949
 0.01 275009 274009 274007 273006 271005 271004 271005 269006
      268007 267008 266009 267011 269013 271014 271013 273012
      273011 274009 275009
 0.01 257004 256000 253996 249995 244995 240993 237995 238997
      242999 244002 247006 251007 255006 257004
 0.25 454769 451739 450732 448727 443719 439716 434715 423716
      418716 414712 411708 406706 397711 391718 386725 382735
      378744 375756 372766 366775 360783 358786 353786 348785
      344787 338795 330801 325803 322806 319812 319818 319826
      320834 320841 319845 317850 314852 307858 303861 298863
      292862 286862 282865 280869 282894 278915 277919 277925
      279931 281935 285939 290943 294945 298945 306940 314935
      318927 321918 325909 328905 332903 337900 340895 343889
      346886 353881 356881 357883 360886 363890 366892 371892
      375891 384887 393891 401895 407895 410898 411907 410915
      409931 408957 409985 410992 412996 417005 421010 427012
      431009 433004 436992 438981 437976 436971 434966 434958
      434942 434926 434917 434908 436895 441872 443861 443845
      446816 450789 453780 454769
 0.25 399053 400048 399044 398041 394041 383048 380042 376037
      364029 361023 356019 352019 349021 345027 331053 333056
      336058 343060 345062 346065 344068 340072 337079 337088
      336097 336108 339123 344128 351131 357130 362126 371114
      380107 382102 383097 384086 385056 399053
 0.25 313022 313018 313013 311011 309011 305010 302010 300011
      298013 296015 296019 297021 299023 301024 305025 308026
      311024 313022
 0.50 441772 440764 439756 437751 434748 429746 424744 420744
      415747 411745 408741 406735 404731 399729 393731 390735
      388742 385751 382762 378772 376778 372782 365788 361790
      355792 350789 344793 338801 333809 326814 325817 325822
      326833 330842 333856 336859 342859 345858 349859 352864
      357872 361874 367875 371873 378873 388872 392872 395870
      402864 410856 414853 419853 426859 428865 430870 433871
      432869 432864 434852 434836 434820 433813 433807 436792
      439782 441772
 0.50 425971 426966 425961 424958 423954 422952 421949 419950
      417953 416956 415959 415963 414968 415973 416975 419977
      422975 424973 425971
 0.50 379085 381080 380075 376069 371066 366066 356073 349073
      346076 345079 344088 345096 347102 346110 346117 350123
      354124 359118 362112 365106 367101 369100 372095 375087
      379085
 0.50 370055 371051 371047 367041 362040 357038 353036 351037
      347042 345048 343052 345054 352057 357060 361060 365061
      368061 370057 370055
 0.50 338893 336893 335895 335896 335897 335898 337898 337897
      338895 338893 338893
 0.50 328874 325868 319864 314862 310864 301867 296867 293865
      290863 286864 283868 282871 283883 285892 283902 282911
      282917 282923 286929 289931 294932 301929 306924 314921
      316911 318902 321894 325887 328878 328874
 1.00 421785 421780 421775 419771 417771 414771 412772 410775
      408777 409782 409787 412788 414790 416792 418794 420794
      420792 420787 421785
 1.00 388795 387792 383791 376794 370797 363798 355800 349804
      345808 341814 339820 336826 334833 335837 339838 346836
      351833 361823 366823 372826 378825 382820 384814 386806
      388795
 1.00 313884 312877 308873 301872 294872 292868 290865 286866
      284870 285879 287893 288899 287906 288912 291918 295920
      300918 303914 306907 309894 311888 313884
 1.50 361814 360808 356807 351806 347809 344814 345818 347818
      350815 351820 349824 353827 355824 358820 360816 361814
 1.50 346825 345823 344823 343822 343823 342823 340825 338827
      338828 337830 337831 336832 337834 339834 340832 341832
      342831 343829 344828 345827 345825 346825
 1.50 309882 308878 305875 294875 291872 290868 287869 286871
      286876 287883 289893 291904 291909 293913 297912 299907
      300901 298897 298892 301888 308884 309882
 2.00 356819 356818 354819 353819 352821 352822 352823 354822
      355821 356819 356819
 2.00 350811 350810 348811 346814 348814 348813 350811 350811
 2.00 303884 298880 294877 288876 288883 289889 291897 292904
      295908 297903 296897 296890 300886 303884
 3.00 295903 295901 293899 293897 293895 293893 293895 293897
      293899 293900 294901 294903 295904 295903
 3.00 292885 292883 292881 290880 290881 289883 290885 291887
      292885 292885

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 287808 291809 296809 300810 305808 309806 312803 317796
      319793 320787 322778 325769 328761 332752 335743 339736
      344730 350723 355715 359696 361686 364678 371667 377659
      380658 387652 405636 433626 456642 462649 467657 473664
      480664 487666 494673 497677 497682 495694 491716 485725
      479731 477735 475741 475748 473753 465772 460781 457789
      452797 449806 446814 443825 436849 428867 424870 418870
      414869 411865 401853 397849 393847 385843 375842 370849
      367853 366858 363866 364879 363894 361904 360910 359913
      361916 364918 366923 369928 370933 370940 368945 366951
      364954 361963 360966 363967 368967 372965 376967 381967
      385970 391976 396983 400991 403000 406010 408021 410048
      411055 414059 417064 415068 415073 413076 409077 403085
      392097 393087 391088 389093 381098 379104 380109 384111
      388111 393110 396108 404102 406093 408092 410095 412106
      412111 417113 419116 417120 408121 406125 402126 397125
      391126 387129 385136 386139 391141 399138 400140 401148
      405151 410150 394175 388175 386169 385163 383159 380154
      376150 375147 373147 371152 369157 366157 365154 370147
      370142 366142 362139 359141 357143 354142 350139 349135
      347132 347130 344126 345120 343118 342113 343106 351104
      351097 348094 345096 345101 343104 340103 338102 336098
      336094 334089 331086 333080 337076 344072 348071 353068
      355065 353060 347057 342052 338052 329047 311042 300040
      293038 273032 265025 259019 253013 246009 238004 232999
      231987 235981 242974 248969 255964 260957 264950 266943
      270933 274924 281905 285894 288883 291873 293864 296856
      297851 297845 296837 295831 289825 287821 284818 275816
      260811 257804 254806 255810 255816 252815 249816 248818
      247823 245823 243821 242819 243813 245808 246802 247798
      249796 255795 259795 265795 274797 277801 278805 287808
 0.01 523955 523949 523944 520937 518935 514935 509937 504942
      501947 497953 495960 472969 455956 450957 447964 441976
      438983 437991 438000 440007 444012 450013 453012 455010
      460006 465011 470011 474012 476010 480009 482007 487005
      491000 495997 500998 505996 508991 513977 519966 523955
 0.01 482214 482211 481210 479210 477210 476211 474211 472211
      470213 468215 469218 470218 471216 472216 473215 475215
      475214 477213 479214 480214 482214 482214
 0.01 462221 462220 461219 459219 457218 456218 454218 453221
      454221 455221 457222 459222 460221 462221 462221
 0.01 461180 462178 461178 459177 457179 457182 459182 461180
      461180
 0.01 449219 445218 440217 436218 433219 429221 425222 423224
      425223 430224 434225 438223 441222 445221 449219
 0.01 453176 453174 453173 451171 451173 451175 451176 452176
      453176
 0.01 426242 425238 419236 414235 409234 404233 401235 403239
      408239 412239 416239 419240 424242 426242
 0.01 428187 429185 427187 425186 427187 428187 428187
 0.01 414224 416222 417220 415219 413219 413221 411223 412226
      414224 414224
 0.01 419159 420157 420154 420152 421150 419149 417151 416154
      416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161 419159 419159
 0.01 405217 400208 396205 393202 385194 380192 376187 373184
      366183 361183 360188 366190 370194 376201 380204 386207
      394213 398216 404218 405217
 0.01 379183 377182 376181 374181 372180 370181 372182 374182
      375183 377183 379183
 0.01 374111 374109 374107 373105 372104 370104 369106 368108
      368109 366110 366112 366115 367117 368119 370118 371118
      372116 372113 373113 374111
 0.25 478706 477696 475690 467683 462681 459677 453667 446656
      438645 433643 427644 415646 408650 403653 395661 388670
      383679 372704 362724 356733 349742 337760 331771 329777
      329784 332799 331809 330816 327822 322832 317841 312851
      308862 304878 296899 288922 281945 276957 272971 270975
      266980 259986 251988 248990 244994 242998 244000 261011
      266015 271017 282023 288025 295027 305027 311025 316022
      320019 323015 327005 328999 326993 325988 326983 330980
      333975 336970 339955 340949 340941 339932 341923 344911
      347899 349887 355857 359844 364834 370825 378818 388813
      394812 399812 404817 406822 411827 417830 420829 425824
      429814 434803 440792 444782 451772 463749 469737 473726
      476716 478706
 0.25 398210 397209 396207 395207 394207 393207 395208 396210
      397211 398210
 0.25 412071 411067 409064 404064 401065 398064 399062 400058
      398056 393061 390068 388071 388075 389080 391082 397078
      403074 402069 406070 412071
 0.25 408107 408105 408103 408100 407103 407105 407107 407109
      408107
 0.25 394115 394114 392114 391114 392115 394115 394115
 0.25 386790 386785 384783 379780 373777 369771 368768 365768
      358771 355776 351782 345794 343799 344807 347815 350820
      353822 356821 361817 367815 371814 373811 380800 386790
 0.25 386086 384083 383079 383072 381067 376066 373063 368063
      368066 371070 373073 373080 375083 380083 384083 386086
      386086
 0.25 373188 371188 370188 371188 373189 373188
 0.25 372053 370052 368052 370053 372053
 0.50 472711 472705 470701 468696 465692 460689 450686 447680
      445673 443664 441658 438653 434650 428649 420653 409657
      403661 399665 392673 386684 381694 371715 366726 360735
      353744 350749 348754 348758 352758 355756 363749 375765
      380768 384767 388762 391757 394753 398749 404741 410728
      418721 422717 425716 428719 428726 427743 427752 427760
      430774 429781 429788 433786 437781 444773 451763 456754
      462742 467730 470720 472711
 0.50 379078 380076 379074 378073 377073 377076 377078 377080
      379079 379078
 0.50 357832 356828 353828 347833 343835 339834 332837 326842
      322848 315862 309879 302894 296909 290927 286943 283952
      282962 283967 284971 286974 289976 294983 298983 301982
      320958 326942 332925 337909 340898 341888 343879 344871
      349853 357832
 0.50 318009 318003 315001 311001 297000 284998 277997 271995
      266994 261996 259002 262007 267011 271013 283017 288020
      294021 301021 307020 316014 318009
 1.00 462718 461713 458709 454710 453714 449723 446732 441740
      439750 439757 441762 444761 447757 451748 454739 459731
      462721 462718
 1.00 423684 422674 421671 418669 411670 405673 400678 396684
      393690 391697 391713 391723 389730 388737 392738 396736
      399731 403725 409713 412707 416701 419696 422689 423684
 1.00 330906 331900 330894 328883 327876 326875 323876 320884
      314890 307896 303903 300912 297920 294931 292939 290949
      290956 291960 294962 299963 306959 312953 316945 320937
      326919 330906
 1.00 293012 293010 291009 290008 289007 287007 286006 284006
      282007 282010 284010 285011 286012 287012 289013 291013
      293013 293012
 1.50 321911 321904 319900 312900 308903 303912 299922 298927
      298935 298942 297947 296951 297954 303954 306951 309947
      313937 316926 320915 321911
 2.00 313909 310907 308909 306913 304917 303922 303926 304931
      307930 308926 310922 312918 313911 313909


24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 455606 468614 488637 494648 499659 505673 507679 508687
      508693 507696 506702 499711 493713 489713 481720 477724
      472728 464734 454740 448742 445739 441733 440726 442713
      442705 442698 442691 441682 441674 440665 437651 436623
      455606
 0.01 520829 520816 518812 516811 511807 506807 499809 494815
      492820 489823 487821 481816 477816 475818 470822 467826
      460841 456854 452872 451882 451889 451894 453899 453902
      456904 462903 467898 470890 472884 474877 475873 477872
      478885 481890 486893 488894 490892 495888 499882 501876
      506870 509864 512856 513848 514844 516840 519834 520829
 0.01 494220 493215 494211 496206 494202 491199 487199 482202
      477207 471210 465211 461216 469219 475217 481219 489222
      494220
 0.01 481239 481236 480233 479233 478231 476231 474232 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 467237 462234 459231 450232 443233 435235 430236 425236
      422233 423227 427225 431225 438223 448224 452222 457222
      461220 459218 451214 434218 425219 417218 412219 408217
      407214 408210 404207 402207 399210 397205 394201 386196
      378189 372185 367182 364183 363186 365188 369190 376196
      383202 392206 396210 400211 407218 412222 410223 407228
      396226 396231 400234 402238 407240 410239 415240 424244
      429244 433244 449241 460239 467237
 0.01 471153 468147 465144 461146 460151 457155 451158 449160
      454164 458162 463161 467157 471153
 0.01 463178 461175 458176 454174 451171 449173 448180 445183
      442186 444189 448187 450185 454181 456182 459182 462179
      463178
 0.01 445206 446204 446201 444200 443198 442200 442203 442205
      443206 445206 445206
 0.01 452983 450977 448973 447971 444970 438971 435973 431977
      428980 424985 420994 418000 418008 418010 421012 425015
      434014 437011 441007 445996 450988 452983
 0.01 419693 417681 417677 415668 413662 410656 407651 402649
      397651 391655 385664 378675 374683 371693 366707 361716
      358721 354725 346734 334748 329752 326756 319764 311775
      309779 303782 293787 281792 276792 272791 258792 255792
      254794 255801 261801 259805 258809 260811 263815 274819
      284823 288825 295825 301826 306828 309833 309836 309840
      307845 303848 298855 290866 285876 279885 276888 273895
      264911 252929 245940 243943 241949 239955 239963 239975
      237980 236988 237998 238004 241010 243014 247016 252021
      258024 263026 270026 276026 281024 289016 293005 295992
      301970 305956 309943 319922 330904 342888 350878 357870
      364861 370850 378829 382819 384814 387808 390802 393796
      396784 396780 397777 397769 396764 397759 399755 410734
      415724 417714 419702 419693
 0.01 409154 410150 407147 402141 399138 391141 384138 381137
      380142 383147 388148 392151 395152 396156 396161 400162
      404158 407155 409154
 0.01 409117 410109 411102 410096 408092 406088 402087 400084
      399078 403076 404081 406081 409077 411074 412069 407065
      404063 406061 409059 407056 403055 400053 398054 394055
      391059 388061 383061 374062 372061 370059 371056 374055
      379056 383056 387054 390052 388050 380049 376048 372049
      362051 359052 356055 355060 351061 347070 346075 347080
      348086 350089 353091 358092 363097 366102 367107 363115
      360117 355116 349112 345113 344115 347118 350121 357125
      366126 369127 371129 375130 382127 389124 392121 394117
      409117
 0.01 311811 304809 296807 289806 282805 274803 271802 270804
      277807 284809 290812 297813 306814 310813 311811
 0.25 456619 470631 477641 484651 486656 485660 484662 481664
      477665 477669 479678 480684 479689 478691 472695 466695
      462691 460685 455670 450654 446639 445627 456619
 0.25 403692 402684 400679 396671 392670 389673 385681 372709
      369713 366717 361723 350735 334761 324775 320782 318786
      319789 321790 326794 328796 328799 326818 324830 320837
      311850 302861 294873 285888 281896 279905 279909 277912
      272917 262927 259932 259935 260938 264940 267938 269939
      270941 270946 270955 270960 271964 274966 279967 285964
      290960 294952 298945 301936 305929 312914 320902 340876
      348863 352857 353848 353840 355836 359829 363823 367814
      373801 379784 382774 384765 385755 387745 390727 397714
      401702 403692
 0.25 378080 378078 379076 378075 376075 375078 375080 377081
      378080
 0.25 262009 262007 263005 263002 262002 261002 260003 259004
      258006 258008 258009 260010 262009 262009
 0.50 468666 467659 465652 464647 462641 458640 454643 453648
      455653 458659 459664 462668 466670 468668 468666
 0.50 393701 392696 389695 383697 379702 376710 373715 369720
      361729 351741 348748 345754 342768 339782 338792 336799
      333806 332814 331830 331834 329837 323840 315852 310857
      307862 301874 298880 294884 289890 286896 284903 288910
      289918 286925 286932 285940 282949 281953 283955 285955
      290951 294945 296938 297930 299916 307902 313890 325868
      328864 330862 332867 334868 338868 340866 344860 346857
      345852 345847 347839 349833 356820 359814 362807 371781
      377747 378739 380732 385720 391710 393701
 0.50 327883 327881 325882 324883 325884 327883 327883
 0.50 324887 325885 323884 322885 320887 320890 322891 323889
      324887 324887
 1.00 372729 368729 366731 361736 357743 354748 348763 346772
      346781 345798 347808 349809 351808 359794 362787 364780
      367764 366752 367743 372729
 1.50 360781 360778 359776 359774 359773 358772 357770 356769
      356770 355772 355773 355775 354777 354779 354782 354784
      354786 355788 357789 357788 358786 358785 359783 359782
      360781


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 302208
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
607 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 21Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
7R3 AUD 10 SW GPT 15 NNE MOB 20 NNW PNS 45 SSE NPA 35 SE RAM
10 ENE KMDJ 30 WSW 9F2 20 S P92 7R3.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 1A5 25 SSE TRI 10 N UKF 15 SW INT 10 SSW EQY 20 SW HQU
15 ESE ATL 15 NNE 47A 20 NNW 1A5.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...

2100 UTC UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THE MODERATE RISK AND TRIMMED THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA...NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN
MS-AL...AND THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BASED ON THE PROGRESSION
AND OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF THE MCS. LATEST GOES-14 SRSO
LONGWAVE IR LOOPS SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING/LOWERING OF CLOUD
TOPS...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING TO THE LOWERING OF THE 1-3 HR
RAINFALL RATES PER THE LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING TRENDS...GIVEN THE CONTINUED W-E EXPANSE OF MOD-HEAVY
RAIN CORES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY STILL
IN PLAY DOWNWIND (MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG)...LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AROUND 2"/HOUR AND 3-4" WITHIN 3 HOURS WILL NONETHELESS LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT PARTICULARLY WELL OVERALL.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOTED A WET BIAS NORTH OF THE MCS...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME TOO SLOW WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

AS THE DECAYING MCS CONTINUES EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW...INCREASED LOW-MID LAYER SHEAR WILL
MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD COMPONENT...LEADING TO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.


...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHEAST GA...

2100 UTC UPDATE...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
DEEP-LAYER WAA/ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH A POOL OF MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG)...IS ALLOWING FOR AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...NORTHWEST SC...
EASTERN TN...AND WESTERN NC. FFG VALUES ARE HIGH INITIALLY (3-4"
WITHIN 3 HOURS)...HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION FOR RE-FIRING AND (THUS)
SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
CONTINUED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE GENESIS REGION...ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION AND
POTENTIALLY A FAIRLY RAPID DROP IN THE FFG FOLLOWING THE INITIAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BASED ON THE TERRAIN (CLIMATOLOGY).
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 1-1.5" PER
THE LATEST WPCQPF...HOWEVER AS NOTED WITH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE (INCLUDED THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST)...ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING (~01Z) WHILE
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT.

HURLEY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 302050
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 1/0000 UTC THRU MAY 4/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
LA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MS AND THEN WEAKENS AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS WITH TIME...PLUS
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THE MODELS TRIGGER
SHOWER/STORMS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.  THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAKER THAN TODAY...FINDING A RELIABLE AREA
OF LIFT MORE DIFFICULT THAN TODAY.

THE HIGH RES RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION
OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LA SUNDAY. THE WRF
RUNS FROM NSSL/ARW/NMMB AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM SHOW A MAXIMUM
IN THIS AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.  HOWEVER...WITH A WEAKER FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET AND
EVEN ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOCAL BOUNDARIES
ARE NEEDED TO GENERATE LIFT...LIKE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.
MANUAL QPF WAS LIGHTER THAN THE HIGH RES RUNS AS THE RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE DIAGNOSTICS FOR SUSTAINED LIFT.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS HAS LED TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN TN/GA
IN THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE RETURN THEN GETS LIFTED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ENHANCED TOTALS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES RUNS...INCLUDING THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE 12Z CONUS NEST NAM IN EITHER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR IN MS/LA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW ONE QPF MAXIMA IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION TONIGHT IN
NEBRASKA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SUPPORTS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO PA AND
NY.  AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FOCUSES SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A
PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN LONG ISLAND SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES RUNS CLUSTER NORMALLY WITH
TYPICAL TIMING/AMOUNT DIFFERENCES. A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND
WAS USED.

BIGGER DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO WHERE/WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORM....AS THE
AIRMASS RECOVERS AFTER THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.  A MAXIMA IN THE
700 MB CONVERGENCE INT HE GFS FORECAST FOCUSES ENHANCED TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE CMC
GEM...NSSL WRF AND A MULTI-MODEL/SREF MEAN QPF AMOUNTS WERE USED
PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW
EJECTING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF AZ INTO NM SUNDAY.  A COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AZ ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND
NORTHERN NM.  PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY COUPLED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WITH ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.
MANUAL PROGS USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 09Z SREF MEAN QPF.


DAYS 2/3...

***MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND***

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES
PLACE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY, TRACKING NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  STRONG MID-UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW YORK WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.
 THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RAIN, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY.  FARTHER SOUTH, RIGHT ENTRANCE JET
DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


***GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST***

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
POSITION OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.  MODEL QPFS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
WILL BECOME BETTER DEPICTED IN LATER MODEL RUNS.  WE GENERALLY
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/BIASED CORRECTED MODEL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.  CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG
THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH, THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS THAT WERE ISSUED OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE OWING TO ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAIN
AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE AREAS.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CELLS.


***INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WEST COAST MOUNTAINS***

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  FARTHER
WEST, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOST AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 470759 467729 466722 464715 463708 459704 447696 434688
      426686 418682 412678 406674 399669 397672 392673 388675
      384680 380688 374706 371718 366726 359743 356750 353755
      350758 345765 340771 326781 320784 313790 308794 306797
      302806 300810 301815 305825 307830 306837 303846 299853
      295859 287877 282882 279886 277892 274901 271908 268945
      268950 272952 274952 275955 275962 276967 277971 276974
      277984 277989 278993 281003 283007 282013 278020 278023
      280026 285029 290030 304038 313041 318046 323054 326058
      328060 328064 329085 327090 324096 323106 325115 327120
      329122 333124 336128 340135 341140 344141 353142 357141
      358148 353155 353163 358172 359177 353179 353184 356188
      389210 395215 398213 399209 398205 394202 390200 388196
      382188 378180 377175 376170 377166 376160 373157 372151
      377142 382134 387127 393124 400118 403114 407112 410107
      409100 408094 406100 405104 404107 402107 400103 397094
      397091 398088 400084 404077 404072 402068 401065 404064
      407065 415071 418074 421078 422085 422091 423098 421105
      420115 415125 404142 399150 397154 397158 398161 402165
      409161 421150 427146 435141 438139 439130 436121 435115
      435109 437102 441102 444100 449100 453100 452095 449092
      444089 441086 439083 440079 441077 443078 448078 451081
      451075 447067 442062 434055 432050 433044 439025 444001
      446988 447971 448960 449945 448934 447916 447902 448893
      449887 450881 452867 455859 456852 457845 459820 460809
      462800 470779 470767 469761 470759
 0.01 399945 398936 396933 396929 394926 394922 391919 387918
      383919 380920 375923 371924 369925 363929 358932 352934
      337939 326943 323944 321946 316952 313958 310964 309967
      309972 308977 310981 315992 319998 323003 329007 332007
      335006 338005 340003 346998 353989 355987 359986 361984
      366985 371987 374989 378990 384992 390993 394977 397961
      398951 399945
 0.01 275009 274009 274007 273006 271005 271004 271005 269006
      268007 267008 266009 267011 269013 271014 271013 273012
      273011 274009 275009
 0.01 257004 256000 253996 249995 244995 240993 237995 238997
      242999 244002 247006 251007 255006 257004
 0.25 454769 453753 452744 451736 447724 442717 437715 433715
      420717 417715 414711 408705 399710 391718 385726 381734
      375758 371766 368773 362781 358785 354786 349784 345785
      340792 334798 325803 321806 319812 319823 322833 322839
      320845 315852 308858 296872 290879 286887 282896 278906
      276917 276930 279941 281947 285951 288953 293953 301949
      309943 316935 327922 332915 338909 342906 348905 358902
      376891 382887 385886 388891 396896 401898 408898 410901
      410907 410919 408949 408963 409976 410990 411994 415998
      417001 422005 426003 431000 438899 443873 444861 444845
      445820 449794 450787 453781 454769
 0.25 399053 400048 399044 397041 394041 388045 386048 383048
      380041 375037 364029 361023 359020 355019 349022 345027
      341034 338040 333045 331048 331053 333056 337058 343061
      346063 344067 340072 338075 337080 337090 336098 336108
      339123 344128 347130 351131 358129 362125 371114 377110
      381106 382102 383096 384086 385072 382065 382063 384058
      387055 392055 397055 399053
 0.25 312022 313018 313013 311011 309011 305010 302010 300011
      298013 296015 296019 297021 299023 301024 305025 308026
      311024 312022
 0.50 441772 441766 440760 439755 436751 432747 425744 420745
      416747 412746 409744 408740 406735 404731 399729 394731
      391734 386747 381765 376778 372783 366789 360792 356793
      353791 350789 346791 341797 337803 333808 328812 325816
      325817 329824 329831 330838 330850 328857 322861 314862
      308867 298876 293880 290886 283900 279916 278920 279925
      281931 286937 290938 296938 308933 311932 314930 318923
      325911 330905 337901 344890 355879 360876 366873 382870
      390867 395862 406852 411848 418849 425852 429857 432866
      433869 435866 436856 437850 437843 436832 434822 432811
      431807 432802 435795 437789 440780 441772
 0.50 425971 426966 425961 424958 423954 422952 421949 419950
      417953 416956 415959 415963 414968 415973 416975 419976
      422975 424973 425971
 0.50 379085 381080 380075 376069 371066 366066 356073 348073
      345079 344088 345096 347102 346110 346117 350123 355123
      359118 362111 365106 372095 375086 379085
 0.50 370055 371050 371047 367041 362040 357038 353036 351037
      347042 345048 343052 345054 352057 357060 361060 365061
      368061 370057 370055
 1.00 420782 421776 421774 419771 412772 408777 408787 412793
      416800 415804 415809 418813 419811 418806 417801 418797
      420793 420787 420782
 1.00 392796 391792 387790 380791 368799 361802 356806 350810
      346816 343834 345842 350844 355842 358843 363848 369852
      373852 375848 380832 383826 386819 389810 391803 392796
 1.00 316888 315883 311879 306879 302882 295889 291897 286908
      286913 287918 290923 295924 301922 304919 310911 314901
      315895 316888 316888
 1.50 358821 359819 357817 356817 355817 354819 354821 356822
      358821 358821
 1.50 307895 305890 302891 298894 297897 295901 293906 292912
      295915 299914 302909 303905 304901 306897 307895

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 287808 291809 296809 300810 305808 309806 312803 317796
      319793 320787 322778 325769 328761 332752 335743 339736
      344730 350723 355715 359696 361686 364678 371667 377659
      380658 387652 405636 433626 456642 462649 467657 473664
      480664 487666 494673 497677 497682 495694 491716 485725
      479731 477735 475741 475748 473753 465772 460781 457789
      452797 449806 446814 443825 436849 428867 424870 418870
      414869 411865 401853 397849 393847 385843 375842 370849
      367853 366858 363866 364879 363894 361904 360910 359913
      361916 364918 366923 369928 370933 370940 368945 366951
      364954 361963 360966 363967 368967 372965 376967 381967
      385970 391976 396983 400991 403000 406010 408021 410048
      411055 414059 417064 415068 415073 413076 409077 403085
      392097 393087 391088 389093 381098 379104 380109 384111
      388111 393110 396108 404102 406093 408092 410095 412106
      412111 417113 419116 417120 408121 406125 402126 397125
      391126 387129 385136 386139 391141 399138 400140 401148
      405151 410150 394175 388175 386169 385163 383159 380154
      376150 375147 373147 371152 369157 366157 365154 370147
      370142 366142 362139 359141 357143 354142 350139 349135
      347132 347130 344126 345120 343118 342113 343106 351104
      351097 348094 345096 345101 343104 340103 338102 336098
      336094 334089 331086 333080 337076 344072 348071 353068
      355065 353060 347057 342052 338052 329047 311042 300040
      293038 273032 265025 259019 253013 246009 238004 232999
      231987 235981 242974 248969 255964 260957 264950 266943
      270933 274924 281905 285894 288883 291873 293864 296856
      297851 297845 296837 295831 289825 287821 284818 275816
      260811 257804 254806 255810 255816 252815 249816 248818
      247823 245823 243821 242819 243813 245808 246802 247798
      249796 255795 259795 265795 274797 277801 278805 287808
 0.01 523955 523949 523944 520937 518935 514935 509937 504942
      501947 497953 495960 472969 455956 450957 447964 441976
      438983 437991 438000 440007 444012 450013 453012 455010
      460006 465011 470011 474012 476010 480009 482007 487005
      491000 495997 500998 505996 508991 513977 519966 523955
 0.01 482214 482211 481210 479210 477210 476211 474211 472211
      470213 468215 469218 470218 471216 472216 473215 475215
      475214 477213 479214 480214 482214 482214
 0.01 462221 462220 461219 459219 457218 456218 454218 453221
      454221 455221 457222 459222 460221 462221 462221
 0.01 461180 462178 461178 459177 457179 457182 459182 461180
      461180
 0.01 449219 445218 440217 436218 433219 429221 425222 423224
      425223 430224 434225 438223 441222 445221 449219
 0.01 453176 453174 453173 451171 451173 451175 451176 452176
      453176
 0.01 426242 425238 419236 414235 409234 404233 401235 403239
      408239 412239 416239 419240 424242 426242
 0.01 428187 429185 427187 425186 427187 428187 428187
 0.01 414224 416222 417220 415219 413219 413221 411223 412226
      414224 414224
 0.01 419159 420157 420154 420152 421150 419149 417151 416154
      416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161 419159 419159
 0.01 405217 400208 396205 393202 385194 380192 376187 373184
      366183 361183 360188 366190 370194 376201 380204 386207
      394213 398216 404218 405217
 0.01 379183 377182 376181 374181 372180 370181 372182 374182
      375183 377183 379183
 0.01 374111 374109 374107 373105 372104 370104 369106 368108
      368109 366110 366112 366115 367117 368119 370118 371118
      372116 372113 373113 374111
 0.25 478706 477696 475690 467683 462681 459677 453667 446656
      438645 433643 427644 415646 408650 403653 395661 388670
      383679 372704 362724 356733 349742 337760 331771 329777
      329784 332799 331809 330816 327822 322832 317841 312851
      308862 304878 296899 288922 281945 276957 272971 270975
      266980 259986 251988 248990 244994 242998 244000 261011
      266015 271017 282023 288025 295027 305027 311025 316022
      320019 323015 327005 328999 326993 325988 326983 330980
      333975 336970 339955 340949 340941 339932 341923 344911
      347899 349887 355857 359844 364834 370825 378818 388813
      394812 399812 404817 406822 411827 417830 420829 425824
      429814 434803 440792 444782 451772 463749 469737 473726
      476716 478706
 0.25 398210 397209 396207 395207 394207 393207 395208 396210
      397211 398210
 0.25 412071 411067 409064 404064 401065 398064 399062 400058
      398056 393061 390068 388071 388075 389080 391082 397078
      403074 402069 406070 412071
 0.25 408107 408105 408103 408100 407103 407105 407107 407109
      408107
 0.25 394115 394114 392114 391114 392115 394115 394115
 0.25 386790 386785 384783 379780 373777 369771 368768 365768
      358771 355776 351782 345794 343799 344807 347815 350820
      353822 356821 361817 367815 371814 373811 380800 386790
 0.25 386086 384083 383079 383072 381067 376066 373063 368063
      368066 371070 373073 373080 375083 380083 384083 386086
      386086
 0.25 373188 371188 370188 371188 373189 373188
 0.25 372053 370052 368052 370053 372053
 0.50 472711 472705 470701 468696 465692 460689 450686 447680
      445673 443664 441658 438653 434650 428649 420653 409657
      403661 399665 392673 386684 381694 371715 366726 360735
      353744 350749 348754 348758 352758 355756 363749 375765
      380768 384767 388762 391757 394753 398749 404741 410728
      418721 422717 425716 428719 428726 427743 427752 427760
      430774 429781 429788 433786 437781 444773 451763 456754
      462742 467730 470720 472711
 0.50 379078 380076 379074 378073 377073 377076 377078 377080
      379079 379078
 0.50 357832 356828 353828 347833 343835 339834 332837 326842
      322848 315862 309879 302894 296909 290927 286943 283952
      282962 283967 284971 286974 289976 294983 298983 301982
      320958 326942 332925 337909 340898 341888 343879 344871
      349853 357832
 0.50 318009 318003 315001 311001 297000 284998 277997 271995
      266994 261996 259002 262007 267011 271013 283017 288020
      294021 301021 307020 316014 318009
 1.00 462718 461713 458709 454710 453714 449723 446732 441740
      439750 439757 441762 444761 447757 451748 454739 459731
      462721 462718
 1.00 423684 422674 421671 418669 411670 405673 400678 396684
      393690 391697 391713 391723 389730 388737 392738 396736
      399731 403725 409713 412707 416701 419696 422689 423684
 1.00 330906 331900 330894 328883 327876 326875 323876 320884
      314890 307896 303903 300912 297920 294931 292939 290949
      290956 291960 294962 299963 306959 312953 316945 320937
      326919 330906
 1.00 293012 293010 291009 290008 289007 287007 286006 284006
      282007 282010 284010 285011 286012 287012 289013 291013
      293013 293012
 1.50 321911 321904 319900 312900 308903 303912 299922 298927
      298935 298942 297947 296951 297954 303954 306951 309947
      313937 316926 320915 321911
 2.00 313909 310907 308909 306913 304917 303922 303926 304931
      307930 308926 310922 312918 313911 313909

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 455606 468614 488637 494648 499659 505673 507679 508687
      508693 507696 506702 499711 493713 489713 481720 477724
      472728 464734 454740 448742 445739 441733 440726 442713
      442705 442698 442691 441682 441674 440665 437651 436623
      455606
 0.01 520829 520816 518812 516811 511807 506807 499809 494815
      492820 489823 487821 481816 477816 475818 470822 467826
      460841 456854 452872 451882 451889 451894 453899 453902
      456904 462903 467898 470890 472884 474877 475873 477872
      478885 481890 486893 488894 490892 495888 499882 501876
      506870 509864 512856 513848 514844 516840 519834 520829
 0.01 494220 493215 494211 496206 494202 491199 487199 482202
      477207 471210 465211 461216 469219 475217 481219 489222
      494220
 0.01 481239 481236 480233 479233 478231 476231 474232 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 467237 462234 459231 450232 443233 435235 430236 425236
      422233 423227 427225 431225 438223 448224 452222 457222
      461220 459218 451214 434218 425219 417218 412219 408217
      407214 408210 404207 402207 399210 397205 394201 386196
      378189 372185 367182 364183 363186 365188 369190 376196
      383202 392206 396210 400211 407218 412222 410223 407228
      396226 396231 400234 402238 407240 410239 415240 424244
      429244 433244 449241 460239 467237
 0.01 471153 468147 465144 461146 460151 457155 451158 449160
      454164 458162 463161 467157 471153
 0.01 463178 461175 458176 454174 451171 449173 448180 445183
      442186 444189 448187 450185 454181 456182 459182 462179
      463178
 0.01 445206 446204 446201 444200 443198 442200 442203 442205
      443206 445206 445206
 0.01 452983 450977 448973 447971 444970 438971 435973 431977
      428980 424985 420994 418000 418008 418010 421012 425015
      434014 437011 441007 445996 450988 452983
 0.01 419693 417681 417677 415668 413662 410656 407651 402649
      397651 391655 385664 378675 374683 371693 366707 361716
      358721 354725 346734 334748 329752 326756 319764 311775
      309779 303782 293787 281792 276792 272791 258792 255792
      254794 255801 261801 259805 258809 260811 263815 274819
      284823 288825 295825 301826 306828 309833 309836 309840
      307845 303848 298855 290866 285876 279885 276888 273895
      264911 252929 245940 243943 241949 239955 239963 239975
      237980 236988 237998 238004 241010 243014 247016 252021
      258024 263026 270026 276026 281024 289016 293005 295992
      301970 305956 309943 319922 330904 342888 350878 357870
      364861 370850 378829 382819 384814 387808 390802 393796
      396784 396780 397777 397769 396764 397759 399755 410734
      415724 417714 419702 419693
 0.01 409154 410150 407147 402141 399138 391141 384138 381137
      380142 383147 388148 392151 395152 396156 396161 400162
      404158 407155 409154
 0.01 409117 410109 411102 410096 408092 406088 402087 400084
      399078 403076 404081 406081 409077 411074 412069 407065
      404063 406061 409059 407056 403055 400053 398054 394055
      391059 388061 383061 374062 372061 370059 371056 374055
      379056 383056 387054 390052 388050 380049 376048 372049
      362051 359052 356055 355060 351061 347070 346075 347080
      348086 350089 353091 358092 363097 366102 367107 363115
      360117 355116 349112 345113 344115 347118 350121 357125
      366126 369127 371129 375130 382127 389124 392121 394117
      409117
 0.01 311811 304809 296807 289806 282805 274803 271802 270804
      277807 284809 290812 297813 306814 310813 311811
 0.25 456619 470631 477641 484651 486656 485660 484662 481664
      477665 477669 479678 480684 479689 478691 472695 466695
      462691 460685 455670 450654 446639 445627 456619
 0.25 403692 402684 400679 396671 392670 389673 385681 372709
      369713 366717 361723 350735 334761 324775 320782 318786
      319789 321790 326794 328796 328799 326818 324830 320837
      311850 302861 294873 285888 281896 279905 279909 277912
      272917 262927 259932 259935 260938 264940 267938 269939
      270941 270946 270955 270960 271964 274966 279967 285964
      290960 294952 298945 301936 305929 312914 320902 340876
      348863 352857 353848 353840 355836 359829 363823 367814
      373801 379784 382774 384765 385755 387745 390727 397714
      401702 403692
 0.25 378080 378078 379076 378075 376075 375078 375080 377081
      378080
 0.25 262009 262007 263005 263002 262002 261002 260003 259004
      258006 258008 258009 260010 262009 262009
 0.50 468666 467659 465652 464647 462641 458640 454643 453648
      455653 458659 459664 462668 466670 468668 468666
 0.50 393701 392696 389695 383697 379702 376710 373715 369720
      361729 351741 348748 345754 342768 339782 338792 336799
      333806 332814 331830 331834 329837 323840 315852 310857
      307862 301874 298880 294884 289890 286896 284903 288910
      289918 286925 286932 285940 282949 281953 283955 285955
      290951 294945 296938 297930 299916 307902 313890 325868
      328864 330862 332867 334868 338868 340866 344860 346857
      345852 345847 347839 349833 356820 359814 362807 371781
      377747 378739 380732 385720 391710 393701
 0.50 327883 327881 325882 324883 325884 327883 327883
 0.50 324887 325885 323884 322885 320887 320890 322891 323889
      324887 324887
 1.00 372729 368729 366731 361736 357743 354748 348763 346772
      346781 345798 347808 349809 351808 359794 362787 364780
      367764 366752 367743 372729
 1.50 360781 360778 359776 359774 359773 358772 357770 356769
      356770 355772 355773 355775 354777 354779 354782 354784
      354786 355788 357789 357788 358786 358785 359783 359782
      360781


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 302017
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 01 2016 - 00Z WED MAY 04 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DELIVERED HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND TRACK STEADILY TO THE EAST...KICKED DOWNSTREAM BY A MID-UPPER
LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS -- WHERE FOR THE
24-HR PERIOD ENDING LATE SUN...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
8-INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPSTREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/0000 UTC THRU MAY 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
LA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MS AND THEN WEAKENS AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS WITH TIME...PLUS
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THE MODELS TRIGGER
SHOWER/STORMS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.  THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAKER THAN TODAY...FINDING A RELIABLE AREA
OF LIFT MORE DIFFICULT THAN TODAY.

THE HIGH RES RUNS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION
OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LA SUNDAY. THE WRF
RUNS FROM NSSL/ARW/NMMB AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM SHOW A MAXIMUM
IN THIS AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.  HOWEVER...WITH A WEAKER FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET AND
EVEN ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING LOW LEVEL WINDS...LOCAL BOUNDARIES
ARE NEEDED TO GENERATE LIFT...LIKE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.
MANUAL QPF WAS LIGHTER THAN THE HIGH RES RUNS AS THE RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE DIAGNOSTICS FOR SUSTAINED LIFT.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INT HE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS HAS LED TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN TN/GA
IN THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE RETURN THEN GETS LIFTED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ENHANCED TOTALS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES RUNS..INCLUDING THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE 12Z CONUS NEST NAM IN EITHER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR IN MS/LA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW ONE QPF MAXIMA IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION TONIGHT IN
NEBRASKA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SUPPORTS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES TO PA AND
NY.  AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FOCUSES SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A
PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN LONG ISLAND SUNDAY JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES RUNS CLUSTER NORMALLY WITH
TYPICAL TIMING/AMOUNT DIFFERENCES. A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND
WAS USED.

BIGGER DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO WHERE/WHEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORM....AS THE
AIRMASS RECOVERS AFTER THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.  A MAXIMA IN THE
700 MB CONVERGENCE INT HE GFS FORECAST FOCUSES ENHANCED TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THE CMC
GEM...NSSL WRF AND A MULTI-MODEL/SREF MEAN QPF AMOUNTS WERE USED
PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

...CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW
EJECTING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF AZ INTO NM SUNDAY.  A COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AZ ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND
NORTHERN NM.  PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY COUPLED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WITH ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.
MANUAL PROGS USED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 09Z SREF MEAN QPF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 470759 467729 466722 464715 463708 459704 447696 434688
      426686 418682 412678 406674 399669 397672 392673 388675
      384680 380688 374706 371718 366726 359743 356750 353755
      350758 345765 340771 326781 320784 313790 308794 306797
      302806 300810 301815 305825 307830 306837 303846 299853
      295859 287877 282882 279886 277892 274901 271908 268945
      268950 272952 274952 275955 275962 276967 277971 276974
      277984 277989 278993 281003 283007 282013 278020 278023
      280026 285029 290030 304038 313041 318046 323054 326058
      328060 328064 329085 327090 324096 323106 325115 327120
      329122 333124 336128 340135 341140 344141 353142 357141
      358148 353155 353163 358172 359177 353179 353184 356188
      389210 395215 398213 399209 398205 394202 390200 388196
      382188 378180 377175 376170 377166 376160 373157 372151
      377142 382134 387127 393124 400118 403114 407112 410107
      409100 408094 406100 405104 404107 402107 400103 397094
      397091 398088 400084 404077 404072 402068 401065 404064
      407065 415071 418074 421078 422085 422091 423098 421105
      420115 415125 404142 399150 397154 397158 398161 402165
      409161 421150 427146 435141 438139 439130 436121 435115
      435109 437102 441102 444100 449100 453100 452095 449092
      444089 441086 439083 440079 441077 443078 448078 451081
      451075 447067 442062 434055 432050 433044 439025 444001
      446988 447971 448960 449945 448934 447916 447902 448893
      449887 450881 452867 455859 456852 457845 459820 460809
      462800 470779 470767 469761 470759
 0.01 399945 398936 396933 396929 394926 394922 391919 387918
      383919 380920 375923 371924 369925 363929 358932 352934
      337939 326943 323944 321946 316952 313958 310964 309967
      309972 308977 310981 315992 319998 323003 329007 332007
      335006 338005 340003 346998 353989 355987 359986 361984
      366985 371987 374989 378990 384992 390993 394977 397961
      398951 399945
 0.01 275009 274009 274007 273006 271005 271004 271005 269006
      268007 267008 266009 267011 269013 271014 271013 273012
      273011 274009 275009
 0.01 257004 256000 253996 249995 244995 240993 237995 238997
      242999 244002 247006 251007 255006 257004
 0.25 454769 453753 452744 451736 447724 442717 437715 433715
      420717 417715 414711 408705 399710 391718 385726 381734
      375758 371766 368773 362781 358785 354786 349784 345785
      340792 334798 325803 321806 319812 319823 322833 322839
      320845 315852 308858 296872 290879 286887 282896 278906
      276917 276930 279941 281947 285951 288953 293953 301949
      309943 316935 327922 332915 338909 342906 348905 358902
      376891 382887 385886 388891 396896 401898 408898 410901
      410907 410919 408949 408963 409976 410990 411994 415998
      417001 422005 426003 431000 438899 443873 444861 444845
      445820 449794 450787 453781 454769
 0.25 399053 400048 399044 397041 394041 388045 386048 383048
      380041 375037 364029 361023 359020 355019 349022 345027
      341034 338040 333045 331048 331053 333056 337058 343061
      346063 344067 340072 338075 337080 337090 336098 336108
      339123 344128 347130 351131 358129 362125 371114 377110
      381106 382102 383096 384086 385072 382065 382063 384058
      387055 392055 397055 399053
 0.25 312022 313018 313013 311011 309011 305010 302010 300011
      298013 296015 296019 297021 299023 301024 305025 308026
      311024 312022
 0.50 441772 441766 440760 439755 436751 432747 425744 420745
      416747 412746 409744 408740 406735 404731 399729 394731
      391734 386747 381765 376778 372783 366789 360792 356793
      353791 350789 346791 341797 337803 333808 328812 325816
      325817 329824 329831 330838 330850 328857 322861 314862
      308867 298876 293880 290886 283900 279916 278920 279925
      281931 286937 290938 296938 308933 311932 314930 318923
      325911 330905 337901 344890 355879 360876 366873 382870
      390867 395862 406852 411848 418849 425852 429857 432866
      433869 435866 436856 437850 437843 436832 434822 432811
      431807 432802 435795 437789 440780 441772
 0.50 425971 426966 425961 424958 423954 422952 421949 419950
      417953 416956 415959 415963 414968 415973 416975 419976
      422975 424973 425971
 0.50 379085 381080 380075 376069 371066 366066 356073 348073
      345079 344088 345096 347102 346110 346117 350123 355123
      359118 362111 365106 372095 375086 379085
 0.50 370055 371050 371047 367041 362040 357038 353036 351037
      347042 345048 343052 345054 352057 357060 361060 365061
      368061 370057 370055
 1.00 420782 421776 421774 419771 412772 408777 408787 412793
      416800 415804 415809 418813 419811 418806 417801 418797
      420793 420787 420782
 1.00 392796 391792 387790 380791 368799 361802 356806 350810
      346816 343834 345842 350844 355842 358843 363848 369852
      373852 375848 380832 383826 386819 389810 391803 392796
 1.00 316888 315883 311879 306879 302882 295889 291897 286908
      286913 287918 290923 295924 301922 304919 310911 314901
      315895 316888 316888
 1.50 358821 359819 357817 356817 355817 354819 354821 356822
      358821 358821
 1.50 307895 305890 302891 298894 297897 295901 293906 292912
      295915 299914 302909 303905 304901 306897 307895

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 301408
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 15Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW 1A6 15 S EKQ 30 ESE GLW 35 SE FTK 20 W FFT 30 S CVG
50 NW HTS 15 NNW 3I2 10 S PKB 10 NW CKB 15 WSW 2G4 15 WSW CBE
15 NE W99 25 S W99 HSP 20 SE LWB 20 NNE BCB 10 N MWK SVH
15 N EHO FQD 25 NNW FQD 15 SW TNB 15 WNW TNB 20 WSW TRI
25 SE 1A6 30 WSW 1A6.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW DRI 15 ENE POE 35 NNE ESF 25 S TVR 40 NNE MCB 20 ENE HBG
10 WNW MOB 15 NNE KVKY 20 S KMIS 10 ENE S58 20 SW KEIR
15 ENE KEHC 20 NW KEHC 30 WSW KCRH KXIH 35 NNE GLS 30 S JAS
20 WSW DRI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
KVNP 20 NW KVNP 30 WSW LFT 20 WNW LFT 35 NNE LFT 25 NNW BTR
15 N BTR 15 ENE BTR 25 SE BTR 30 NNE 7R3 PTN 25 W P92 KVNP.


FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION DIFFERS AS THE BANDS PROGRESS ACROSS LA. WHILE OVERALL
INCREASED PROGRESSION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD---TRAINING OF CELLS IS
POSSIBLE...AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF CELLS.
SOUTHERN LA REMAINS DEPICTED WITH A MODERATE RISK--WITH SHORT TERM
PRECIP TOTALS OF 2"+ POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF TRAINING(OBSERVED AT
LAKE CHARLES LA AT 13Z).  THE EXCESSIVE THREAT IS SHOWN INTO
SOUTHERN MS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE FASTER TIMING.  THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE THREAT AREA IN MS WAS TRIMMED SOUTH AS SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE LOWER THAN IN COASTAL AREAS PLUS THE MIXED LAYER CALE VALUES
ARE LOWER.  THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUITY NOT SHOWING PARTICULARLY
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A MARGINAL RISK.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE BEST
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A SLIGHT RISK
AREA WAS DEPICTED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TO COVER THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL QPF DETAILS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IN A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS.  THE WESTERN EDGE FO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MADE TO TRIM WESTERN ND CENTRAL KY WHERE
ONGOING SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO
A SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN CLUSTER...PLUS THE RECENT RUNS THE OF THE
HIGH RES RAPID RESPONSE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RE-DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NSSL WRF AND WRF ARW SHOW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN EASTERN
KY ACROSS MUCH OF WV...SO A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THESE
AREAS.  WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
THESE AREAS---LOW FFG VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
WHERE CONVECTION PERSISTS---WITH SHORT TERM 1-1.5"+ PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

PETERSEN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300947
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW THE ONGOING VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER NORTHEAST TX...NW LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EVOLVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VARIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---BUT THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED PROGRESSION EARLY DAY 1 AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA AND THE
CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CMC GEM FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH ITS TIMING FASTER THAN
THE NMMB---BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW AND HRRR.  AFTER
THIS---THE ARW BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSHING IT THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA BY 0000
UTC---MUCH FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  WHILE THE ARW OFTEN DOES
BEST WITH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION---LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
IT WHEN IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.  THE NSSL WRF AND
CMC GEM WERE SLOWER THAN THE ARW FOR THE 2ND SIX HOUR PERIOD AND
WERE FOLLOWED.  WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MS---TOTALS LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF TX/AR AS INCREASED PROGRESSION
IS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
BEST LARGE SCALE FORCINGS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ARE LATER DAY 1---THE EMPHASIS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE LIFTING  NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES---BUT A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THE CMC GEM...NSSL WRF AND IN HOUSE QPF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNTS AND AXIS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA.  THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FOLLOWED
TO MITIGATE AND SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THIS AREA.

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT IN
THE SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.---WITH THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.   A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN NV--FAR SOUTHERN UT---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AZ---SOUTHWEST CO INTO NW NM.



DAYS 2/3...

OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT EWD INTO
THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THE START OF DAY 2...THEN GET PICKED UP BY A
NRN STREAM TROUGH AND LIFT ACROSS THE NERN U.S THROUGH DAY 2/3.
MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY COALESCING AROUND A SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE WITH A FEATURE IN THE NRN
STREAM...BUT TRENDS IN THE NAM/SREFMEAN/GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND UP THE WRN SIDE
OF THE APPALACIANS THAN EARLIER RUNS.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY MON...TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING. QPF-WISE...ON SUN MORNING...STRONG
WAA AHD OF THE OH VALLEY LOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
OVERRUNNING PCPN  THROUGH THE MID-ALTANTIC REGION. STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF HIGH PWS ALONG THE ATTENDANT E-W
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROMOTE A SWATH OF MDT AMOUNTS ACRS
ERN MD/SRN AND CNTRL NJ.  THEN DURING SUN AFTN...CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
MEANWHILE...STRONG MID-UPR DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NY WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF MDT PCPN FROM NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SUN-MON.
MAJORITY OF THIS PCPN LOOKS TO BE RAIN...THOUGH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY MON
MORNING.  FARTHER SOUTH...RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN JET DYNAMICS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON AFTN
AND EVENING.

TX/GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
PSN OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ALONG
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...MODEL QPFS SHOWED A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA INTO SRN AND CNTRL
MS. ACROSS THIS AREA...MODELS SHOW THE BEST POOLING OF HIGH PW AIR
ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING NWD
FROM THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF COAST.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH..CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA ON DAY 1...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAY 2 AND 3 FROM ERN TX THROUGH CNTRL LA
AND SRN MS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5-2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS
(ESPECIALLY ON DAY 2).  FARTHER WEST...STRONG POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX ON DAY 2.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SWD ALG THE RIO GRANDE DURING DAY 3 AS
HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.


INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AMTS ARE LIKELY DAY 2
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF CO/ERN UT AND NRN NM..WITH UPWARDS OF 8-12
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS WHERE MDT INSTABILITY
AND JET DYNAMICS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFTING.  FARTHER
WEST...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHD OF AN APPROACHING PAC SYS MAY TRIGGER
ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW ON
DAY 3.  AMTS...THOUGH...WILL BE LGT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/KLEIN

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 527169 523163 517156 512148 504141 500137 495135 489132
      485130 481129 480127 477121 474116 475106 475100 474095
      471088 457080 454070 454056 452032 451020 449009 447996
      447978 447943 447925 448908 451887 454876 454860 453832
      452818 452809 451796 450789 449784 441760 439753 435750
      427743 420738 414738 408737 391734 374742 370747 367755
      364763 361771 359779 356783 352786 343791 341795 337795
      324796 317797 313799 309803 309809 314822 319827 320831
      319836 317843 318854 315864 309870 296878 285891 273906
      268914 264919 263926 264936 266941 266945 265949 264954
      266958 266970 268972 274974 278975 283975 294966 301962
      308958 323952 327948 331946 339941 349937 359933 367927
      373917 376916 380918 383921 385924 387948 391967 394991
      397012 399025 398030 396034 393040 389044 384047 378046
      371036 367034 362032 354033 344032 337036 331043 331049
      332051 334056 337057 338062 337067 336078 334082 332084
      328085 326088 327092 326094 323100 323104 326109 333116
      337126 339130 339134 338137 335142 334147 336149 331167
      338172 341177 342181 347184 352179 354176 358176 361177
      363180 366185 370189 374192 379193 381195 384196 387196
      389194 387189 384185 381181 380175 380167 382161 384147
      389137 393129 398120 402118 407120 410122 412126 412128
      410131 407132 402137 399140 397143 398148 401152 408159
      415155 418156 423155 427151 428145 429135 432134 432139
      436150 437154 439157 443160 445164 448173 449177 446181
      443183 442188 446190 449194 451195 454192 458186 462183
      464177 467170
 0.01 467170 469165 474164 479167 482169 487172 490173 495175
      500176 505177 510178 515179 518178 521178 524174 527169
 0.01 421102 422092 421084 418079 411078 402079 390082 385095
      384102 386108 389108 393107 398106 406098 406093 408091
      408096 410098 410104 412109 418106 421102
 0.25 441854 438826 439812 438802 437794 434783 430772 425763
      420759 405752 393753 387753 383756 374772 365785 360792
      353799 344806 342810 339816 337824 335829 335835 336844
      339854 339859 336862 329868 313883 300894 290905 280920
      276930 275945 275950 276953 282959 288959 292957 300954
      308950 316945 324938 332932 339926 346921 359914 367910
      374904 378902 382901 384903 387908 388915 390918 394919
      398930 401939 406945 408948 409954 408958 405964 405971
      405977 407993 410016 412027 414038 416046 423054 427056
      430056 431053 432047 435040 439033 441020 441995 441981
      441965 440946 439931 439901 440878 441863 441854
 0.25 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088 428089 428090 428092
      429092 431093 432092
 0.25 376130 370104 370098 371090 373083 377080 377072 375065
      374058 372053 367050 361049 356051 356055 359067 358072
      353074 347086 344090 340091 340099 340107 342118 344123
      348128 352132 356135 359140 359147 357153 359156 364156
      368152 370142 373134 376130
 0.50 438990 438977 438964 437945 437929 436917 435910 435903
      435890 435879 436854 436845 435840 433833 431824 431811
      428799 428789 426779 423769 420765 415765 408761 404760
      401761 396764 390769 384775 374788 363801 356808 352813
      349817 346826 344835 343841 345845 351850 353851 355856
      355862 355868 353874 350879 347883 342886 338887 336888
      336885 334880 330878 323881 314885 308889 302895 295903
      289911 282928 280937 279943 281947 284954 287956 290955
      294953 304949 313943 319938 325932 335921 340917 348912
      353909 358906 365900 371895 378891 385893 388896 389899
      393908 398915 407938 412955 410980 413005 415017 416025
      418031 422040 424042 428041 432033 435023 436016 437004
      438990
 0.50 362110 364108 363105 363103 362101 361100 360098 360097
      359098 359100 358102 358105 358107 359108 360109 360110
      362110 362110
 1.00 434987 435977 434971 430957 424945 419938 419946 419952
      417960 417968 417985 418995 419001 422008 424013 426015
      429016 431011 433003 434995 434987
 1.00 425869 425863 422862 418867 414869 412866 408861 403860
      402864 402870 403876 409879 413885 418889 422888 423886
      423874 425869
 1.00 403790 403786 402785 397785 394786 387792 379801 373808
      371814 368820 362829 362834 367838 370844 370851 366863
      361873 358878 357886 357890 360891 363887 365883 369878
      375871 382861 388854 392849 395843 394830 392823 391815
      396805 401797 403790
 1.00 343906 341903 336903 328904 323904 320902 317894 314892
      311892 306895 300900 297907 292921 288937 288942 290945
      296948 303945 308942 319934 328924 333917 337911 340907
      343906
 1.50 431992 431987 432983 432978 431975 429972 427973 426975
      425980 425985 424989 424994 425999 426001 428001 429999
      431994 431992
 1.50 332915 329910 322910 316908 313904 313901 311897 307897
      302901 300905 297918 297927 296931 295938 296944 300945
      305943 314936 323928 329919 332915
 2.00 326922 326916 323915 317914 313912 308907 304908 302912
      301922 299929 297933 298941 300943 303942 307940 313935
      319930 325924 326922
 3.00 321924 317923 314922 310922 306924 303927 301931 301937
      303940 307937 310935 312932 316929 319926 321924

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 483705 481688 477684 473682 469681 464682 454680 449681
      445678 441674 438670 428653 420650 414649 398650 392652
      388651 383653 379656 375662 372670 365694 363705 362710
      358714 352722 348731 344741 339749 337758 334765 327779
      321795 316804 315809 315813 312817 308821 305824 305833
      306840 305846 304853 303858 301870 299881 293889 287895
      283902 280911 275920 275930 277938 277947 275954 270961
      268965 266970 266978 268982 272986 270990 267994 264996
      258998 256000 255996 252994 249994 244994 239991 235995
      239998 249007 254007 257006 258010 261013 268018 274025
      279032 283033 286031 293039 296042 304043 315043 320042
      325041 325055 326058 329058 335060 333064 329068 330072
      328076 327081 328085 329088 333092 335095 335100 334107
      334113 342128 345136 348141 354143 359143 363150 359152
      354153 353155 354158 353162 359172 364178 361182 357185
      358187 362190 370195 377202 384206 392210 396212 398211
      401208 398205 390200 385194 378186 376181 375173 377169
      377163 375159 372157 374156 379158 383156 380146 378141
      377138 379136 385129 398120 402115 409110 410106 410100
      408090 407085 407077 408072 409066 413066 416062 421060
      425058 424052 422046 418037 414029 412023 409020 406014
      406010 405007 404003 402997 402991 403986 401977 398968
      396959 387943 382936 380933 377931 372929 366929 361927
      354927 346920 343916 341912 339907 339900 345892 352884
      358877 365872 370871 375873 382879 388885 401917 401926
      403931 403949 404955 407958 415965 417966 420960 424948
      431928 438909 442893 453852 456840 457835 457830
 0.01 457830 460820 460805 462795 464782 464772 466759 466747
      470739 474728 478719 479715 480711 483705
 0.01 442094 442088 438090 435091 431089 428086 425084 424089
      426092 429095 432097 438098 440096 442094
 0.01 405107 405105 405102 404100 404097 403096 401095 399097
      399099 399101 400104 402106 402107 403108 405107
 0.01 272801 272799 268798 266797 262797 259798 255799 253800
      254802 257803 259803 263803 267803 270802 272801
 0.01 255816 255810 253806 250803 246805 244809 243813 242819
      243821 244823 246823 248819 249816 255816 255816
 0.25 460728 460719 459714 457712 447709 442707 438704 434701
      431697 427686 423677 418669 414665 409665 404665 398668
      389675 386678 383683 378695 375705 371714 368723 365732
      363747 362752 362760 362767 361773 360787 352806 346813
      340819 336821 333824 332827 327837 323848 318857 314867
      309875 301891 296902 292913 289924 289932 288939 285950
      283961 284967 285972 288981 288989 286996 279003 275005
      274009 278015 281018 284022 287024 296027 306030 310030
      316029 320026 325022 327017 325010 324996 321984 321971
      321965 323958 325948 327939 329923 331909 333898 338886
      343879 347871 351862 354857 356854 369851 374848 379845
      401837 410840 416845 425841 428837 429832 431826 432816
      436806 441804 445800 450788 454777 456766 458756 459744
      460728
 0.25 385198 384197 383196 381195 379197 380198 382200 383200
      384200 385198
 0.25 389089 390082 388081 388077 390075 389071 385071 383069
      379063 374059 376057 382057 389056 392054 393049 392046
      390045 385045 380041 376036 366030 359029 355032 351036
      349042 352048 355054 361063 359065 359067 361075 362080
      359086 352082 350081 350084 357091 362096 363104 364108
      366109 370108 372113 374114 380117 383113 383104 384097
      386093 389089
 0.50 451745 451740 449735 443727 437727 433727 424723 422721
      422716 422702 421692 419684 417679 411675 405676 401680
      395687 390696 381712 376720 372731 370740 369754 369766
      371772 374776 381780 385781 388787 387792 384797 377803
      375806 373810 377820 383826 385828 388827 390824 393821
      396817 400807 404797 405790 404783 403777 406773 409769
      412767 418768 421770 425781 431786 436787 441784 446775
      449763 451754 451745
 0.50 385083 384081 383079 381074 380072 378069 376068 373067
      371070 370073 370077 370080 372083 373085 375087 378088
      380086 382084 385083
 0.50 338871 337864 332861 328861 322865 316873 312878 309884
      304894 299905 295916 294922 294929 294934 292943 290956
      290961 292968 296972 297977 299977 306970 310966 313960
      317948 319942 321935 322929 322920 324913 326907 334882
      338871
 0.50 313020 314015 313010 308005 300002 293001 286003 283004
      280007 282012 287018 292022 299024 308024 313020
 1.00 409714 409705 407698 403697 400699 397705 391715 385724
      382729 379735 378741 381748 386760 391761 397759 401753
      404748 408735 408721 409714
 1.00 325881 325876 323876 318881 311891 304903 301916 299925
      300935 299941 302947 304949 307950 310945 313938 315930
      315921 317914 322900 325885 325881
 1.50 400735 399730 398726 396724 393727 391728 390730 388733
      388737 389742 390745 392748 394749 395747 397744 398741
      399737 400735
 1.50 318898 319894 317892 313894 310899 308903 306909 304916
      304924 307926 310921 312916 314909 317903 318898

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 390660 428633 459616 473638 474643 481666 484676 487683
      492690 493694 494700 499711 499716 498721 493728 486735
      481737 478740 473742 469744 465752 462760 458768 455777
      448795 445802 442808 433822 431826 428828 422832 418833
      414835 404836 400835 394835 389833 387831 386816 385810
      387806 386800 388795 390786 395767 396758 392750 389751
      389756 388765 386774 383782 380791 376801 357830 354839
      353849 351871 350880 351887 357904 360912 364918 366923
      369926 371930 374934 377936 380938 383938 395938 402954
      402968 402972 400975 400978 398988 396993 395999 393007
      390015 388018 385018 379014 376010 374006 371001 369996
      373975 370966 368961 366958 360952 350952 345958 339966
      336974 333983 327019 324027 323033 321035 318037 313037
      309039 305038 299038 293036 287036 286041 282045 278045
      273038 271030 268027 264026 257025 255022 248018 238009
      236003 233000 232997 231987 234983 238981 241977 242973
      246964 250957 254949 260935 263927 266919 273901 283873
      286864 289861 291854 294847 296842 296835 295832 292828
      287823 281819 275814 269810 263805 259804 254806 248811
      246809 246805 246800 248797 253793 262791 268791 271792
      280791 290792 299791 305789 308786 314778 319772 324764
      329757 332749 332745 336743 343737 358712 365699 370691
      373682 377675 381672 384667 390660
 0.01 509833 509821 507814 504808 499803 493801 486801 482801
      478804 474805 469808 465813 461817 456824 452830 449835
      444848 442852 443857 444864 447872 451877 454879 457879
      458882 455884 451889 450896 450907 454908 458908 462910
      465917 468922 474922 484912 498888 501883 503876 504867
      506857 506848 507843 509833
 0.01 494217 492215 491213 487211 484210 481210 477210 476211
      473211 473214 475217 478219 481220 484221 488222 490221
      492220 494217
 0.01 481239 480238 479237 478236 478234 476234 474233 474234
      474235 474237 475239 476240 476241 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 472231 450227 445229 441230 436232 436233 439235 441237
      439237 435238 428237 425236 422234 423229 425224 432225
      434224 436221 441220 447221 447216 446218 442217 433218
      427219 423222 419227 415228 404231 401234 405237 411239
      417238 427244 434246 437246 439245 448241 453239 458239
      462237 460235 465233 469234 471232 472231
 0.01 463178 463176 463175 461175 459177 457179 457180 459181
      460181 461180 462179 463178
 0.01 464169 464164 463163 461160 460157 458155 456156 454158
      451158 449158 449161 452164 454164 456163 459165 460166
      462169 464169
 0.01 420159 420157 420154 421152 421150 421149 419149 418152
      417153 416154 416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161
      419159 420159
 0.01 420116 418114 414111 411099 410096 405093 400090 401086
      403083 406080 409075 412073 412068 407056 399052 393051
      386051 382050 376049 373045 368046 363047 359049 355052
      352057 348063 346069 342072 338075 335080 332084 332088
      336089 340091 343092 347094 350098 352102 352105 350106
      345107 342109 345116 348121 350126 356135 366138 369138
      371140 372145 378154 380159 380162 381165 385167 389171
      387173 392174 395175 396173 399169 398165 403160 409154
      410149 407147 403143 402141 399140 389139 387134 386131
      389130 396128 409129 408125 408121 411120 417120 420116
 0.01 398206 395199 390199 386197 381192 377187 373184 368184
      364183 360186 362189 367190 374194 378195 380198 386203
      392207 398206
 0.25 497850 497840 495832 492831 489833 486837 483842 480849
      481854 484861 487865 491866 495860 497853 497850
 0.25 485705 485699 483694 480688 475684 470681 467679 464673
      459660 455654 451650 446647 441643 438643 438646 438652
      437656 433661 430662 425658 420656 414655 410656 407658
      400665 394675 387686 380698 374710 367721 360731 355734
      350740 345748 339757 327777 320789 319792 319795 320802
      318807 316814 312827 311840 309854 306867 305873 302879
      291906 285918 280930 273953 268963 264969 260974 251981
      246986 243992 243996 244999 248003 254007 256012 260015
      263016 266015 277016 283014 286010 287006 287001 285993
      291980 294975 299970 308963 312959 316953 321945 326934
      331923 335910 336901 336891 338873 340857 340850 340839
      339831 340826 342820 346815 359792 362787 364780 368766
      369758 371752 375738 380729 386719 392708 395704 401700
      407697 416695 419695 422697 424700 425705 427726 427744
      429752 432756 436760 441762 447758 451755 460744 478722
      482714 485705
 0.25 394078 393075 391073 389075 386082 384080 384074 381067
      373065 369066 369068 370077 371082 373086 377086 381084
      385090 389089 391084 394078
 0.25 362056 361054 359055 359056 359058 361058 362056
 0.50 475707 474701 473698 467692 459681 455673 454669 451667
      448667 446670 441676 438682 436693 435700 435706 436712
      436722 437734 438740 439745 441748 445749 457739 462735
      467728 473713 475707
 0.50 371736 371732 370731 367734 361740 354745 349751 340767
      331783 329791 326801 325811 326817 330815 337810 342803
      346796 350787 354779 356769 358765 361762 363758 365753
      368744 371736
 0.50 333854 332846 330839 327833 323833 321835 318841 316848
      313862 309876 306882 303888 299901 295907 292914 284941
      280955 277962 277965 277970 280972 284971 288968 299962
      305958 309954 312950 316943 322931 325925 327917 329901
      331885 333869 333854
 0.50 278005 278001 277998 273993 270990 264991 259993 253995
      251993 250996 251002 256001 260006 262008 265008 270009
      276007 278005
 1.00 460718 461713 460709 459705 457702 455702 453705 452708
      452711 450714 450716 449721 450726 451728 455728 457727
      459724 460721 460718
 1.00 319902 316899 311898 308901 306905 301914 298919 296924
      294936 292947 294952 297949 305945 312937 314934 316928
      318915 319902

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300947
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW THE ONGOING VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER NORTHEAST TX...NW LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EVOLVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VARIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---BUT THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED PROGRESSION EARLY DAY 1 AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA AND THE
CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CMC GEM FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH ITS TIMING FASTER THAN
THE NMMB---BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW AND HRRR.  AFTER
THIS---THE ARW BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSHING IT THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA BY 0000
UTC---MUCH FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  WHILE THE ARW OFTEN DOES
BEST WITH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION---LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
IT WHEN IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.  THE NSSL WRF AND
CMC GEM WERE SLOWER THAN THE ARW FOR THE 2ND SIX HOUR PERIOD AND
WERE FOLLOWED.  WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MS---TOTALS LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF TX/AR AS INCREASED PROGRESSION
IS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
BEST LARGE SCALE FORCINGS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ARE LATER DAY 1---THE EMPHASIS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE LIFTING  NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES---BUT A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THE CMC GEM...NSSL WRF AND IN HOUSE QPF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNTS AND AXIS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA.  THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FOLLOWED
TO MITIGATE AND SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THIS AREA.

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT IN
THE SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.---WITH THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.   A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN NV--FAR SOUTHERN UT---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AZ---SOUTHWEST CO INTO NW NM.



DAYS 2/3...

OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT EWD INTO
THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THE START OF DAY 2...THEN GET PICKED UP BY A
NRN STREAM TROUGH AND LIFT ACROSS THE NERN U.S THROUGH DAY 2/3.
MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY COALESCING AROUND A SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE WITH A FEATURE IN THE NRN
STREAM...BUT TRENDS IN THE NAM/SREFMEAN/GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND UP THE WRN SIDE
OF THE APPALACIANS THAN EARLIER RUNS.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY MON...TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING. QPF-WISE...ON SUN MORNING...STRONG
WAA AHD OF THE OH VALLEY LOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
OVERRUNNING PCPN  THROUGH THE MID-ALTANTIC REGION. STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF HIGH PWS ALONG THE ATTENDANT E-W
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROMOTE A SWATH OF MDT AMOUNTS ACRS
ERN MD/SRN AND CNTRL NJ.  THEN DURING SUN AFTN...CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
MEANWHILE...STRONG MID-UPR DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NY WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF MDT PCPN FROM NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SUN-MON.
MAJORITY OF THIS PCPN LOOKS TO BE RAIN...THOUGH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY MON
MORNING.  FARTHER SOUTH...RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN JET DYNAMICS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON AFTN
AND EVENING.

TX/GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
PSN OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ALONG
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...MODEL QPFS SHOWED A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA INTO SRN AND CNTRL
MS. ACROSS THIS AREA...MODELS SHOW THE BEST POOLING OF HIGH PW AIR
ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING NWD
FROM THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF COAST.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH..CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA ON DAY 1...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAY 2 AND 3 FROM ERN TX THROUGH CNTRL LA
AND SRN MS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5-2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS
(ESPECIALLY ON DAY 2).  FARTHER WEST...STRONG POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX ON DAY 2.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SWD ALG THE RIO GRANDE DURING DAY 3 AS
HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.


INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AMTS ARE LIKELY DAY 2
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF CO/ERN UT AND NRN NM..WITH UPWARDS OF 8-12
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS WHERE MDT INSTABILITY
AND JET DYNAMICS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFTING.  FARTHER
WEST...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHD OF AN APPROACHING PAC SYS MAY TRIGGER
ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW ON
DAY 3.  AMTS...THOUGH...WILL BE LGT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/KLEIN

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 527169 523163 517156 512148 504141 500137 495135 489132
      485130 481129 480127 477121 474116 475106 475100 474095
      471088 457080 454070 454056 452032 451020 449009 447996
      447978 447943 447925 448908 451887 454876 454860 453832
      452818 452809 451796 450789 449784 441760 439753 435750
      427743 420738 414738 408737 391734 374742 370747 367755
      364763 361771 359779 356783 352786 343791 341795 337795
      324796 317797 313799 309803 309809 314822 319827 320831
      319836 317843 318854 315864 309870 296878 285891 273906
      268914 264919 263926 264936 266941 266945 265949 264954
      266958 266970 268972 274974 278975 283975 294966 301962
      308958 323952 327948 331946 339941 349937 359933 367927
      373917 376916 380918 383921 385924 387948 391967 394991
      397012 399025 398030 396034 393040 389044 384047 378046
      371036 367034 362032 354033 344032 337036 331043 331049
      332051 334056 337057 338062 337067 336078 334082 332084
      328085 326088 327092 326094 323100 323104 326109 333116
      337126 339130 339134 338137 335142 334147 336149 331167
      338172 341177 342181 347184 352179 354176 358176 361177
      363180 366185 370189 374192 379193 381195 384196 387196
      389194 387189 384185 381181 380175 380167 382161 384147
      389137 393129 398120 402118 407120 410122 412126 412128
      410131 407132 402137 399140 397143 398148 401152 408159
      415155 418156 423155 427151 428145 429135 432134 432139
      436150 437154 439157 443160 445164 448173 449177 446181
      443183 442188 446190 449194 451195 454192 458186 462183
      464177 467170
 0.01 467170 469165 474164 479167 482169 487172 490173 495175
      500176 505177 510178 515179 518178 521178 524174 527169
 0.01 421102 422092 421084 418079 411078 402079 390082 385095
      384102 386108 389108 393107 398106 406098 406093 408091
      408096 410098 410104 412109 418106 421102
 0.25 441854 438826 439812 438802 437794 434783 430772 425763
      420759 405752 393753 387753 383756 374772 365785 360792
      353799 344806 342810 339816 337824 335829 335835 336844
      339854 339859 336862 329868 313883 300894 290905 280920
      276930 275945 275950 276953 282959 288959 292957 300954
      308950 316945 324938 332932 339926 346921 359914 367910
      374904 378902 382901 384903 387908 388915 390918 394919
      398930 401939 406945 408948 409954 408958 405964 405971
      405977 407993 410016 412027 414038 416046 423054 427056
      430056 431053 432047 435040 439033 441020 441995 441981
      441965 440946 439931 439901 440878 441863 441854
 0.25 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088 428089 428090 428092
      429092 431093 432092
 0.25 376130 370104 370098 371090 373083 377080 377072 375065
      374058 372053 367050 361049 356051 356055 359067 358072
      353074 347086 344090 340091 340099 340107 342118 344123
      348128 352132 356135 359140 359147 357153 359156 364156
      368152 370142 373134 376130
 0.50 438990 438977 438964 437945 437929 436917 435910 435903
      435890 435879 436854 436845 435840 433833 431824 431811
      428799 428789 426779 423769 420765 415765 408761 404760
      401761 396764 390769 384775 374788 363801 356808 352813
      349817 346826 344835 343841 345845 351850 353851 355856
      355862 355868 353874 350879 347883 342886 338887 336888
      336885 334880 330878 323881 314885 308889 302895 295903
      289911 282928 280937 279943 281947 284954 287956 290955
      294953 304949 313943 319938 325932 335921 340917 348912
      353909 358906 365900 371895 378891 385893 388896 389899
      393908 398915 407938 412955 410980 413005 415017 416025
      418031 422040 424042 428041 432033 435023 436016 437004
      438990
 0.50 362110 364108 363105 363103 362101 361100 360098 360097
      359098 359100 358102 358105 358107 359108 360109 360110
      362110 362110
 1.00 434987 435977 434971 430957 424945 419938 419946 419952
      417960 417968 417985 418995 419001 422008 424013 426015
      429016 431011 433003 434995 434987
 1.00 425869 425863 422862 418867 414869 412866 408861 403860
      402864 402870 403876 409879 413885 418889 422888 423886
      423874 425869
 1.00 403790 403786 402785 397785 394786 387792 379801 373808
      371814 368820 362829 362834 367838 370844 370851 366863
      361873 358878 357886 357890 360891 363887 365883 369878
      375871 382861 388854 392849 395843 394830 392823 391815
      396805 401797 403790
 1.00 343906 341903 336903 328904 323904 320902 317894 314892
      311892 306895 300900 297907 292921 288937 288942 290945
      296948 303945 308942 319934 328924 333917 337911 340907
      343906
 1.50 431992 431987 432983 432978 431975 429972 427973 426975
      425980 425985 424989 424994 425999 426001 428001 429999
      431994 431992
 1.50 332915 329910 322910 316908 313904 313901 311897 307897
      302901 300905 297918 297927 296931 295938 296944 300945
      305943 314936 323928 329919 332915
 2.00 326922 326916 323915 317914 313912 308907 304908 302912
      301922 299929 297933 298941 300943 303942 307940 313935
      319930 325924 326922
 3.00 321924 317923 314922 310922 306924 303927 301931 301937
      303940 307937 310935 312932 316929 319926 321924

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 483705 481688 477684 473682 469681 464682 454680 449681
      445678 441674 438670 428653 420650 414649 398650 392652
      388651 383653 379656 375662 372670 365694 363705 362710
      358714 352722 348731 344741 339749 337758 334765 327779
      321795 316804 315809 315813 312817 308821 305824 305833
      306840 305846 304853 303858 301870 299881 293889 287895
      283902 280911 275920 275930 277938 277947 275954 270961
      268965 266970 266978 268982 272986 270990 267994 264996
      258998 256000 255996 252994 249994 244994 239991 235995
      239998 249007 254007 257006 258010 261013 268018 274025
      279032 283033 286031 293039 296042 304043 315043 320042
      325041 325055 326058 329058 335060 333064 329068 330072
      328076 327081 328085 329088 333092 335095 335100 334107
      334113 342128 345136 348141 354143 359143 363150 359152
      354153 353155 354158 353162 359172 364178 361182 357185
      358187 362190 370195 377202 384206 392210 396212 398211
      401208 398205 390200 385194 378186 376181 375173 377169
      377163 375159 372157 374156 379158 383156 380146 378141
      377138 379136 385129 398120 402115 409110 410106 410100
      408090 407085 407077 408072 409066 413066 416062 421060
      425058 424052 422046 418037 414029 412023 409020 406014
      406010 405007 404003 402997 402991 403986 401977 398968
      396959 387943 382936 380933 377931 372929 366929 361927
      354927 346920 343916 341912 339907 339900 345892 352884
      358877 365872 370871 375873 382879 388885 401917 401926
      403931 403949 404955 407958 415965 417966 420960 424948
      431928 438909 442893 453852 456840 457835 457830
 0.01 457830 460820 460805 462795 464782 464772 466759 466747
      470739 474728 478719 479715 480711 483705
 0.01 442094 442088 438090 435091 431089 428086 425084 424089
      426092 429095 432097 438098 440096 442094
 0.01 405107 405105 405102 404100 404097 403096 401095 399097
      399099 399101 400104 402106 402107 403108 405107
 0.01 272801 272799 268798 266797 262797 259798 255799 253800
      254802 257803 259803 263803 267803 270802 272801
 0.01 255816 255810 253806 250803 246805 244809 243813 242819
      243821 244823 246823 248819 249816 255816 255816
 0.25 460728 460719 459714 457712 447709 442707 438704 434701
      431697 427686 423677 418669 414665 409665 404665 398668
      389675 386678 383683 378695 375705 371714 368723 365732
      363747 362752 362760 362767 361773 360787 352806 346813
      340819 336821 333824 332827 327837 323848 318857 314867
      309875 301891 296902 292913 289924 289932 288939 285950
      283961 284967 285972 288981 288989 286996 279003 275005
      274009 278015 281018 284022 287024 296027 306030 310030
      316029 320026 325022 327017 325010 324996 321984 321971
      321965 323958 325948 327939 329923 331909 333898 338886
      343879 347871 351862 354857 356854 369851 374848 379845
      401837 410840 416845 425841 428837 429832 431826 432816
      436806 441804 445800 450788 454777 456766 458756 459744
      460728
 0.25 385198 384197 383196 381195 379197 380198 382200 383200
      384200 385198
 0.25 389089 390082 388081 388077 390075 389071 385071 383069
      379063 374059 376057 382057 389056 392054 393049 392046
      390045 385045 380041 376036 366030 359029 355032 351036
      349042 352048 355054 361063 359065 359067 361075 362080
      359086 352082 350081 350084 357091 362096 363104 364108
      366109 370108 372113 374114 380117 383113 383104 384097
      386093 389089
 0.50 451745 451740 449735 443727 437727 433727 424723 422721
      422716 422702 421692 419684 417679 411675 405676 401680
      395687 390696 381712 376720 372731 370740 369754 369766
      371772 374776 381780 385781 388787 387792 384797 377803
      375806 373810 377820 383826 385828 388827 390824 393821
      396817 400807 404797 405790 404783 403777 406773 409769
      412767 418768 421770 425781 431786 436787 441784 446775
      449763 451754 451745
 0.50 385083 384081 383079 381074 380072 378069 376068 373067
      371070 370073 370077 370080 372083 373085 375087 378088
      380086 382084 385083
 0.50 338871 337864 332861 328861 322865 316873 312878 309884
      304894 299905 295916 294922 294929 294934 292943 290956
      290961 292968 296972 297977 299977 306970 310966 313960
      317948 319942 321935 322929 322920 324913 326907 334882
      338871
 0.50 313020 314015 313010 308005 300002 293001 286003 283004
      280007 282012 287018 292022 299024 308024 313020
 1.00 409714 409705 407698 403697 400699 397705 391715 385724
      382729 379735 378741 381748 386760 391761 397759 401753
      404748 408735 408721 409714
 1.00 325881 325876 323876 318881 311891 304903 301916 299925
      300935 299941 302947 304949 307950 310945 313938 315930
      315921 317914 322900 325885 325881
 1.50 400735 399730 398726 396724 393727 391728 390730 388733
      388737 389742 390745 392748 394749 395747 397744 398741
      399737 400735
 1.50 318898 319894 317892 313894 310899 308903 306909 304916
      304924 307926 310921 312916 314909 317903 318898

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 390660 428633 459616 473638 474643 481666 484676 487683
      492690 493694 494700 499711 499716 498721 493728 486735
      481737 478740 473742 469744 465752 462760 458768 455777
      448795 445802 442808 433822 431826 428828 422832 418833
      414835 404836 400835 394835 389833 387831 386816 385810
      387806 386800 388795 390786 395767 396758 392750 389751
      389756 388765 386774 383782 380791 376801 357830 354839
      353849 351871 350880 351887 357904 360912 364918 366923
      369926 371930 374934 377936 380938 383938 395938 402954
      402968 402972 400975 400978 398988 396993 395999 393007
      390015 388018 385018 379014 376010 374006 371001 369996
      373975 370966 368961 366958 360952 350952 345958 339966
      336974 333983 327019 324027 323033 321035 318037 313037
      309039 305038 299038 293036 287036 286041 282045 278045
      273038 271030 268027 264026 257025 255022 248018 238009
      236003 233000 232997 231987 234983 238981 241977 242973
      246964 250957 254949 260935 263927 266919 273901 283873
      286864 289861 291854 294847 296842 296835 295832 292828
      287823 281819 275814 269810 263805 259804 254806 248811
      246809 246805 246800 248797 253793 262791 268791 271792
      280791 290792 299791 305789 308786 314778 319772 324764
      329757 332749 332745 336743 343737 358712 365699 370691
      373682 377675 381672 384667 390660
 0.01 509833 509821 507814 504808 499803 493801 486801 482801
      478804 474805 469808 465813 461817 456824 452830 449835
      444848 442852 443857 444864 447872 451877 454879 457879
      458882 455884 451889 450896 450907 454908 458908 462910
      465917 468922 474922 484912 498888 501883 503876 504867
      506857 506848 507843 509833
 0.01 494217 492215 491213 487211 484210 481210 477210 476211
      473211 473214 475217 478219 481220 484221 488222 490221
      492220 494217
 0.01 481239 480238 479237 478236 478234 476234 474233 474234
      474235 474237 475239 476240 476241 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 472231 450227 445229 441230 436232 436233 439235 441237
      439237 435238 428237 425236 422234 423229 425224 432225
      434224 436221 441220 447221 447216 446218 442217 433218
      427219 423222 419227 415228 404231 401234 405237 411239
      417238 427244 434246 437246 439245 448241 453239 458239
      462237 460235 465233 469234 471232 472231
 0.01 463178 463176 463175 461175 459177 457179 457180 459181
      460181 461180 462179 463178
 0.01 464169 464164 463163 461160 460157 458155 456156 454158
      451158 449158 449161 452164 454164 456163 459165 460166
      462169 464169
 0.01 420159 420157 420154 421152 421150 421149 419149 418152
      417153 416154 416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161
      419159 420159
 0.01 420116 418114 414111 411099 410096 405093 400090 401086
      403083 406080 409075 412073 412068 407056 399052 393051
      386051 382050 376049 373045 368046 363047 359049 355052
      352057 348063 346069 342072 338075 335080 332084 332088
      336089 340091 343092 347094 350098 352102 352105 350106
      345107 342109 345116 348121 350126 356135 366138 369138
      371140 372145 378154 380159 380162 381165 385167 389171
      387173 392174 395175 396173 399169 398165 403160 409154
      410149 407147 403143 402141 399140 389139 387134 386131
      389130 396128 409129 408125 408121 411120 417120 420116
 0.01 398206 395199 390199 386197 381192 377187 373184 368184
      364183 360186 362189 367190 374194 378195 380198 386203
      392207 398206
 0.25 497850 497840 495832 492831 489833 486837 483842 480849
      481854 484861 487865 491866 495860 497853 497850
 0.25 485705 485699 483694 480688 475684 470681 467679 464673
      459660 455654 451650 446647 441643 438643 438646 438652
      437656 433661 430662 425658 420656 414655 410656 407658
      400665 394675 387686 380698 374710 367721 360731 355734
      350740 345748 339757 327777 320789 319792 319795 320802
      318807 316814 312827 311840 309854 306867 305873 302879
      291906 285918 280930 273953 268963 264969 260974 251981
      246986 243992 243996 244999 248003 254007 256012 260015
      263016 266015 277016 283014 286010 287006 287001 285993
      291980 294975 299970 308963 312959 316953 321945 326934
      331923 335910 336901 336891 338873 340857 340850 340839
      339831 340826 342820 346815 359792 362787 364780 368766
      369758 371752 375738 380729 386719 392708 395704 401700
      407697 416695 419695 422697 424700 425705 427726 427744
      429752 432756 436760 441762 447758 451755 460744 478722
      482714 485705
 0.25 394078 393075 391073 389075 386082 384080 384074 381067
      373065 369066 369068 370077 371082 373086 377086 381084
      385090 389089 391084 394078
 0.25 362056 361054 359055 359056 359058 361058 362056
 0.50 475707 474701 473698 467692 459681 455673 454669 451667
      448667 446670 441676 438682 436693 435700 435706 436712
      436722 437734 438740 439745 441748 445749 457739 462735
      467728 473713 475707
 0.50 371736 371732 370731 367734 361740 354745 349751 340767
      331783 329791 326801 325811 326817 330815 337810 342803
      346796 350787 354779 356769 358765 361762 363758 365753
      368744 371736
 0.50 333854 332846 330839 327833 323833 321835 318841 316848
      313862 309876 306882 303888 299901 295907 292914 284941
      280955 277962 277965 277970 280972 284971 288968 299962
      305958 309954 312950 316943 322931 325925 327917 329901
      331885 333869 333854
 0.50 278005 278001 277998 273993 270990 264991 259993 253995
      251993 250996 251002 256001 260006 262008 265008 270009
      276007 278005
 1.00 460718 461713 460709 459705 457702 455702 453705 452708
      452711 450714 450716 449721 450726 451728 455728 457727
      459724 460721 460718
 1.00 319902 316899 311898 308901 306905 301914 298919 296924
      294936 292947 294952 297949 305945 312937 314934 316928
      318915 319902

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300825
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW THE ONGOING VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER NORTHEAST TX...NW LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EVOLVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VARIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---BUT THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED PROGRESSION EARLY DAY 1 AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA AND THE
CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CMC GEM FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH ITS TIMING FASTER THAN
THE NMMB---BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW AND HRRR.  AFTER
THIS---THE ARW BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSHING IT THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA BY 0000
UTC---MUCH FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  WHILE THE ARW OFTEN DOES
BEST WITH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION---LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
IT WHEN IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.  THE NSSL WRF AND
CMC GEM WERE SLOWER THAN THE ARW FOR THE 2ND SIX HOUR PERIOD AND
WERE FOLLOWED.  WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MS---TOTALS LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF TX/AR AS INCREASED PROGRESSION
IS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
BEST LARGE SCALE FORCINGS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ARE LATER DAY 1---THE EMPHASIS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE LIFTING  NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES---BUT A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THE CMC GEM...NSSL WRF AND IN HOUSE QPF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNTS AND AXIS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA.  THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FOLLOWED
TO MITIGATE AND SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THIS AREA.

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT IN
THE SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.---WITH THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.   A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN NV--FAR SOUTHERN UT---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AZ---SOUTHWEST CO INTO NW NM.


DAYS 2/3...

OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT EWD INTO
THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THE START OF DAY 2...THEN GET PICKED UP BY A
NRN STREAM TROUGH AND LIFT ACROSS THE NERN U.S THROUGH DAY 2/3.
MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY COALESCING AROUND A SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE WITH A FEATURE IN THE NRN
STREAM...BUT TRENDS IN THE NAM/SREFMEAN/GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND UP THE WRN SIDE
OF THE APPALACIANS THAN EARLIER RUNS.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY MON...TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING. QPF-WISE...ON SUN MORNING...STRONG
WAA AHD OF THE OH VALLEY LOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
OVERRUNNING PCPN  THROUGH THE MID-ALTANTIC REGION. STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF HIGH PWS ALONG THE ATTENDANT E-W
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROMOTE A SWATH OF MDT AMOUNTS ACRS
ERN MD/SRN AND CNTRL NJ.  THEN DURING SUN AFTN...CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
MEANWHILE...STRONG MID-UPR DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NY WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF MDT PCPN FROM NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SUN-MON.
MAJORITY OF THIS PCPN LOOKS TO BE RAIN...THOUGH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY MON
MORNING.  FARTHER SOUTH...RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN JET DYNAMICS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON AFTN
AND EVENING.

TX/GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND
PSN OF THE MOSTLY EAST-WEST ALIGNED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ALONG
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...MODEL QPFS SHOWED A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN TX THROUGH LA INTO SRN AND CNTRL
MS. ACROSS THIS AREA...MODELS SHOW THE BEST POOLING OF HIGH PW AIR
ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTING NWD
FROM THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF COAST.  WHILE OVERALL AREAL AVERAGES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH..CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA ON DAY 1...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAY 2 AND 3 FROM ERN TX THROUGH CNTRL LA
AND SRN MS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5-2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS
(ESPECIALLY ON DAY 2).  FARTHER WEST...STRONG POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL TX ON DAY 2.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SWD ALG THE RIO GRANDE DURING DAY 3 AS
HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.


INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AMTS ARE LIKELY DAY 2
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF CO/ERN UT AND NRN NM..WITH UPWARDS OF 8-12
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS WHERE MDT INSTABILITY
AND JET DYNAMICS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFTING.  FARTHER
WEST...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHD OF AN APPROACHING PAC SYS MAY TRIGGER
ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW ON
DAY 3.  AMTS...THOUGH...WILL BE LGT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/KLEIN

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 527169 523162 517154 505142 498136 492134 487131 482129
      478124 476121 474114 475100 472091 468085 459083 456078
      454072 454056 452032 451019 449006 447995 447981 447914
      450901 450894 451889 454877 454863 453837 452822 452814
      452809 451794 448782 442762 440755 437751 433749 429745
      422740 419738 412737 397735 390734 386737 382738 372743
      370747 368753 366757 364762 361771 358781 355784 351786
      344790 342794 339795 326796 314798 310801 309804 312817
      320831 318839 317843 317850 316863 309870 296878 275904
      264920 263927 264931 264938 266943 264954 266958 266964
      266969 268972 277975 282975 285973 293967 300962 308958
      324951 337942 347937 352936 357934 365928 368925 370921
      372917 376916 383920 387945 391968 394991 397015 399024
      398030 396034 394039 390043 386046 380046 376043 373039
      370035 366033 349032 344032 340034 336037 333040 331045
      331050 334055 337058 338062 337067 336078 333082 330085
      326087 327090 323100 322104 324107 332113 335123 340132
      335144 335149 337154 340157 339160 337160 331159 328160
      325163 326166 331167 335169 341176 343181 346185 352179
      355176 358176 362178 364182 367186 370189 373192 377192
      381195 387196 389193 387188 381181 380175 380165 382160
      383152 387141 397122 400118 404119 411123 412129 408132
      405134 402137 398140 397145 399150 402153 408159 413155
      417156 422155 425153 428148 429141 429136 431133 432140
      434145 437156 442159 444162 446167 448172 449175 449177
      445181 443183 442188 446190 449194 451195 454192 458186
      462183 464178 467170
 0.01 467170 469165 474164 479167 482169 487172 490173 495175
      500176 505177 510178 515179 518178 521178 524174 527169
 0.01 421102 422093 421084 418079 411078 409080 406079 402079
      390082 385095 384102 384106 386108 389108 393107 398106
      406098 406093 408091 408096 410098 410103 412109 418107
      421102
 0.25 441854 438827 439813 439804 437796 434784 431776 427766
      424761 420759 405752 394753 389753 385754 381758 379762
      376769 365785 360792 354798 345805 340812 335832 335838
      336843 339854 340857 339860 336863 330868 314881 301893
      290905 280919 276929 275934 276942 275948 276953 281959
      287959 292958 300954 309950 315945 330933 337927 344923
      352918 359914 367909 373905 378902 383902 387906 387911
      389917 393919 395922 397927 400936 406945 408950 409955
      406963 405969 405975 407989 414038 417047 422053 426056
      430055 434042 437039 439033 441021 441995 441980 441966
      440948 439935 439906 440878 441854
 0.25 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088 428089 428090 428092
      429092 431093 432092
 0.25 376130 376122 373116 370112 370104 370098 371091 373084
      377080 377072 375065 374058 372053 368050 362049 357051
      356055 359066 357072 353074 347085 344090 340091 340099
      340106 342118 344123 347128 352131 356135 358139 359146
      357152 359156 363156 368153 370142 373135 376130
 0.50 438990 438975 438964 437947 437931 436919 435912 435906
      436899 435890 435878 436852 436844 434838 433832 431824
      431817 430809 428797 428786 425775 421766 413764 409761
      404760 398763 395766 388771 383777 371790 348820 345829
      343841 345845 349848 352850 354854 355859 355866 353874
      350879 347883 343886 339887 336888 336885 334880 329879
      323881 316884 309889 302895 297900 291908 286917 283926
      281933 279944 281949 283952 285956 289955 297952 306947
      313943 321937 327930 338919 344914 352910 367898 374893
      378891 381892 385893 388896 392906 394910 397913 401921
      405933 409942 412954 412960 412964 411978 411991 413003
      414014 416027 420037 423041 427042 431036 435024 437011
      438990
 0.50 362110 364108 363105 363103 362101 361100 360098 360097
      359098 359100 358102 358105 358107 359108 360109 360110
      362110 362110
 1.00 434987 435978 434971 430957 424945 419938 419945 419952
      417959 417968 417985 418994 419001 422008 424013 426015
      428016 431011 433004 434995 434987
 1.00 425869 425863 422862 418867 415869 412866 408861 404860
      402864 402870 403876 409879 413885 418889 422889 423886
      423874 425869
 1.00 403790 403786 402785 398785 395786 390789 387792 379800
      373808 371814 368820 362829 362833 366838 369843 370851
      366863 361873 358878 357885 357889 359891 363887 368878
      375871 382861 388854 392849 395843 394830 392823 391816
      396805 400797 403790
 1.00 343906 341904 336903 328904 323904 320902 318899 316894
      311892 306895 300900 297906 292921 289929 287937 288942
      289945 296948 303946 308942 319934 328924 333917 337911
      343906
 1.50 431992 431987 432983 432978 431975 429972 427973 426975
      425980 425985 424989 424994 425999 426001 428001 429999
      431994 431992
 1.50 332915 329910 322910 317908 312905 310898 307897 302900
      300905 297918 297927 296935 295941 297945 303944 307941
      316934 325926 331917 332915
 2.00 326922 326917 323915 313913 308911 306908 302910 301914
      301922 299929 297933 298941 300943 303942 307940 313935
      319930 325924 326922
 3.00 321924 317923 314922 310922 306924 303927 301931 301937
      303940 307937 310935 312932 316929 319926 321924

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 483697 481688 476684 469681 465682 462681 459681 455680
      451681 446679 443676 437669 433661 428654 420650 411649
      400650 394651 389651 385652 381654 377659 374664 371674
      368682 366690 364699 363707 360712 358715 354719 351723
      344741 327781 320796 316805 313815 307821 305823 305827
      306838 306844 305849 301871 299882 293889 287896 281907
      277916 275920 275927 277937 277947 274955 268963 266971
      266980 272985 269991 263997 257999 253995 250994 247995
      238992 236996 240999 246005 250007 255006 258007 258010
      266017 270020 274024 280033 284031 288033 293040 295042
      299042 308043 313043 317042 321041 324041 325044 325050
      326056 334059 333064 329068 328085 334093 335099 334106
      334113 337117 341127 345136 348141 351142 352144 354169
      357185 358188 363191 367193 372197 378203 382205 386207
      391210 394212 398211 401209 398205 390199 383191 378185
      376179 375173 377169 376161 372156 377158 381157 382155
      382149 379145 377141 378138 380136 407111 409107 411103
      410099 408090 406084 407077 409070 409065 412066 414066
      416062 423060 425058 425053 424048 421045 413027 411021
      409021 408017 405006 403997 402990 403985 400972 396962
      395955 393952 389947 387943 381934 378931 373929 358927
      354927 351924 345919 342915 340911 339904 341898 346890
      352884 359876 361874 367871 372871 376874 382879 388886
      392897 398909 399913 401922 403932 403943 404955 409960
      416966 417966 418963 420958 425948 428938 435918 438909
      439903 440898 442893 443886 447874 453847 456838 459827
 0.01 459827 460822 460815 460802 463792 463785 464780 465767
      466762 465755 467743 471734 475725 479716 482708 483697
 0.01 442094 442088 438090 435091 431089 428086 425084 424089
      426092 429095 432097 438098 440096 442094
 0.01 405107 405105 405102 404100 404097 403096 401095 399097
      399099 399101 400104 402106 402107 403108 405107
 0.01 272801 272799 268798 266797 262797 259798 255799 253800
      254802 257803 259803 263803 267803 270802 272801
 0.01 255816 255810 253806 250803 246805 244809 243813 242819
      243821 246823 248819 249816 255816 255816
 0.25 460729 460721 459715 456711 453710 443707 435702 431698
      429691 426683 423678 418669 414665 409665 405665 401666
      393671 386678 380688 377700 374709 369721 365732 362752
      362759 362768 361779 360786 358791 354800 352806 348811
      340819 334823 330832 325842 321852 312871 301891 293907
      290919 289924 289931 287943 284954 283963 285970 288981
      289987 288992 286997 283999 275005 274009 277014 283021
      288024 294026 304029 310030 316029 322025 325022 327017
      325010 325003 322990 321984 321976 322962 325950 327939
      330915 332903 335893 340882 346873 351863 353857 356854
      366852 374848 378845 383843 393839 400837 406838 413843
      416845 419844 424842 427838 429832 431822 431807 432802
      434800 436801 441804 444800 449791 453779 458751 460729
 0.25 385198 384197 383196 381195 379197 380198 382200 383200
      384200 385198
 0.25 389089 389083 388079 389072 383069 381064 375061 374057
      382057 388056 393052 393048 390045 385045 376038 375035
      373034 366030 361029 356031 351036 349042 351047 354052
      357058 360060 361063 359065 361072 362079 361083 359086
      350081 352087 357091 361095 363102 365108 370108 372114
      378117 381117 382114 383104 385094 389089
 0.50 452745 451739 450734 444725 440724 434724 429726 424725
      422721 422716 422703 420691 419685 417679 411675 408675
      405676 402679 396686 390696 381711 376721 372731 370740
      369753 369765 371772 374776 381780 385781 388786 387792
      384797 377803 375806 373810 376819 383826 385828 388827
      390824 396817 400808 404797 405791 404783 403777 406774
      412767 417768 421770 427779 432783 438782 441780 444776
      446770 450760 451752 452745
 0.50 385083 384081 383079 381074 380072 378069 376068 373067
      371070 370073 370077 370080 372083 373085 375087 378088
      380086 382084 385083
 0.50 338871 337864 332861 328861 322865 316873 312878 309884
      304893 299905 295915 293922 294929 294934 292942 290956
      290961 292968 296972 297977 299977 306970 310966 313960
      316948 319942 321935 322929 322921 324914 326907 334882
      338871
 0.50 313020 314015 313010 308005 300002 293001 286003 283004
      280007 282012 287018 292022 299024 308024 313020
 1.00 409714 409705 407698 404697 401699 397705 391715 385724
      382729 379735 378741 381748 386760 391761 397759 401754
      404748 408735 408721 409714
 1.00 325881 325877 323876 318881 311891 304903 301916 299925
      300935 299941 302947 304949 307950 310945 315930 315921
      317914 322900 325885 325881
 1.50 400735 399730 398726 396724 393727 391728 390730 388733
      388737 389742 390745 392748 394749 395747 397744 398740
      399737 400735
 1.50 318898 319894 317892 313894 310899 308903 306909 304916
      304924 307926 310921 312916 314909 317903 318898

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 390660 428633 459616 473638 474643 481666 484676 487683
      492690 493694 494700 499711 499716 498721 493728 486735
      481737 478740 473742 469744 465752 462760 458768 455777
      448795 445802 442808 433822 431826 428828 422832 418833
      414835 404836 400835 394835 389833 387831 386816 385810
      387806 386800 388795 390786 395767 396758 392750 389751
      389756 388765 386774 383782 380791 376801 357830 354839
      353849 351871 350880 351887 357904 360912 364918 366923
      369926 371930 374934 377936 380938 383938 395938 402954
      402968 402972 400975 400978 398988 396993 395999 393007
      390015 388018 385018 379014 376010 374006 371001 369996
      373975 370966 368961 366958 360952 350952 345958 339966
      336974 333983 327019 324027 323033 321035 318037 313037
      309039 305038 299038 293036 287036 286041 282045 278045
      273038 271030 268027 264026 257025 255022 248018 238009
      236003 233000 232997 231987 234983 238981 241977 242973
      246964 250957 254949 260935 263927 266919 273901 283873
      286864 289861 291854 294847 296842 296835 295832 292828
      287823 281819 275814 269810 263805 259804 254806 248811
      246809 246805 246800 248797 253793 262791 268791 271792
      280791 290792 299791 305789 308786 314778 319772 324764
      329757 332749 332745 336743 343737 358712 365699 370691
      373682 377675 381672 384667 390660
 0.01 509833 509821 507814 504808 499803 493801 486801 482801
      478804 474805 469808 465813 461817 456824 452830 449835
      444848 442852 443857 444864 447872 451877 454879 457879
      458882 455884 451889 450896 450907 454908 458908 462910
      465917 468922 474922 484912 498888 501883 503876 504867
      506857 506848 507843 509833
 0.01 494217 492215 491213 487211 484210 481210 477210 476211
      473211 473214 475217 478219 481220 484221 488222 490221
      492220 494217
 0.01 481239 480238 479237 478236 478234 476234 474233 474234
      474235 474237 475239 476240 476241 478241 479241 480239
      481239
 0.01 472231 450227 445229 441230 436232 436233 439235 441237
      439237 435238 428237 425236 422234 423229 425224 432225
      434224 436221 441220 447221 447216 446218 442217 433218
      427219 423222 419227 415228 404231 401234 405237 411239
      417238 427244 434246 437246 439245 448241 453239 458239
      462237 460235 465233 469234 471232 472231
 0.01 463178 463176 463175 461175 459177 457179 457180 459181
      460181 461180 462179 463178
 0.01 464169 464164 463163 461160 460157 458155 456156 454158
      451158 449158 449161 452164 454164 456163 459165 460166
      462169 464169
 0.01 420159 420157 420154 421152 421150 421149 419149 418152
      417153 416154 416156 414158 416160 416161 417161 418161
      419159 420159
 0.01 420116 418114 414111 411099 410096 405093 400090 401086
      403083 406080 409075 412073 412068 407056 399052 393051
      386051 382050 376049 373045 368046 363047 359049 355052
      352057 348063 346069 342072 338075 335080 332084 332088
      336089 340091 343092 347094 350098 352102 352105 350106
      345107 342109 345116 348121 350126 356135 366138 369138
      371140 372145 378154 380159 380162 381165 385167 389171
      387173 392174 395175 396173 399169 398165 403160 409154
      410149 407147 403143 402141 399140 389139 387134 386131
      389130 396128 409129 408125 408121 411120 417120 420116
 0.01 398206 395199 390199 386197 381192 377187 373184 368184
      364183 360186 362189 367190 374194 378195 380198 386203
      392207 398206
 0.25 497850 497840 495832 492831 489833 486837 483842 480849
      481854 484861 487865 491866 495860 497853 497850
 0.25 485705 485699 483694 480688 475684 470681 467679 464673
      459660 455654 451650 446647 441643 438643 438646 438652
      437656 433661 430662 425658 420656 414655 410656 407658
      400665 394675 387686 380698 374710 367721 360731 355734
      350740 345748 339757 327777 320789 319792 319795 320802
      318807 316814 312827 311840 309854 306867 305873 302879
      291906 285918 280930 273953 268963 264969 260974 251981
      246986 243992 243996 244999 248003 254007 256012 260015
      263016 266015 277016 283014 286010 287006 287001 285993
      291980 294975 299970 308963 312959 316953 321945 326934
      331923 335910 336901 336891 338873 340857 340850 340839
      339831 340826 342820 346815 359792 362787 364780 368766
      369758 371752 375738 380729 386719 392708 395704 401700
      407697 416695 419695 422697 424700 425705 427726 427744
      429752 432756 436760 441762 447758 451755 460744 478722
      482714 485705
 0.25 394078 393075 391073 389075 386082 384080 384074 381067
      373065 369066 369068 370077 371082 373086 377086 381084
      385090 389089 391084 394078
 0.25 362056 361054 359055 359056 359058 361058 362056
 0.50 475707 474701 473698 467692 459681 455673 454669 451667
      448667 446670 441676 438682 436693 435700 435706 436712
      436722 437734 438740 439745 441748 445749 457739 462735
      467728 473713 475707
 0.50 371736 371732 370731 367734 361740 354745 349751 340767
      331783 329791 326801 325811 326817 330815 337810 342803
      346796 350787 354779 356769 358765 361762 363758 365753
      368744 371736
 0.50 333854 332846 330839 327833 323833 321835 318841 316848
      313862 309876 306882 303888 299901 295907 292914 284941
      280955 277962 277965 277970 280972 284971 288968 299962
      305958 309954 312950 316943 322931 325925 327917 329901
      331885 333869 333854
 0.50 278005 278001 277998 273993 270990 264991 259993 253995
      251993 250996 251002 256001 260006 262008 265008 270009
      276007 278005
 1.00 460718 461713 460709 459705 457702 455702 453705 452708
      452711 450714 450716 449721 450726 451728 455728 457727
      459724 460721 460718
 1.00 319902 316899 311898 308901 306905 301914 298919 296924
      294936 292947 294952 297949 305945 312937 314934 316928
      318915 319902

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300812
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SUN MAY 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
W99 25 W SHD 20 SSE HSP BCB 10 NNE MKJ VJI 20 W TRI 10 W EKQ
25 E GLW 25 SSW OWB EHR 20 WNW HNB 30 NNE HNB 10 NW CVG
35 ESE ILN UNI 10 NW PKB 25 ENE PKB 20 S AFJ 15 NE MGW 20 S 2G4
W99.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E SRN 10 NNE KCRH 35 W KCRH 25 S KXIH 25 SE LBX 15 NW LBX
10 WSW DWH 15 SE UTS 35 NE OCH 25 WSW LLQ 35 E PBF 35 WSW UTA
25 SSE UTA 40 SSE UTA 45 SE UTA 40 ESE GWO 35 SW MEI PIB
20 S HBG 15 E NEW 2GL 25 E SRN.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW HEZ 25 NNW BTR 15 N BTR 15 ENE BTR 25 SE BTR 30 NNE 7R3
10 NNW PTN 15 E 7R4 15 ENE KCMB KVBS 15 WSW BPT 30 WNW POE
25 ENE IER 25 NE ESF 35 SSW HEZ.


FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE IS UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CURRENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX---NW LA INTO
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AS THE NEW DAY 1 EXCESSIVE PERIOD BEGINS AT
1200 UTC.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION DIFFERS AS DOES HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH THE
CONVECTION BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TX---BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED PROGRESSION BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 1200 UTC.  THE STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TX IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
SUPPORT INCREASED DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION.
WHETHER THIS OCCURS PRIOR TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC WILL
DETERMINE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RISK AREA.  THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
REACHING THE HOUSTON AREA IN THE 1200 TO 1800 UTC TIME
FRAME---WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL.  WHILE OVERALL INCREASED PROGRESSION EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD--- TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD---FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA.  THIS IS THE REGION
DEPICTED WITH A MODERATE RISK--WITH SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF
2"+ POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF TRAINING.  WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASED
PROGRESSION---THE EXCESSIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS THE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WHILE THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY---IT WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
THE BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  A FAIRLY BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
DEPICTED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO COVER
THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL QPF DETAILS.  WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES---THERE IS A STRONG
MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION.  WHILE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THESE AREAS---LOW
FFG VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE CONVECTION
BECOME MOST ORGANIZED---WITH SHORT TERM 1-1.5"+ PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 300749
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 12Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 03 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES/WEST CENTRAL NE...

THE LATE SEASON SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HRS BEFORE THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS TO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS TERRAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TIGHTLY COMPACTED MID TO UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NWRN
KS/NERN CO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ON SAT WHILE BEGINNING TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. THE IMPRESSIVE RADAR REFLECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NE AND SPREADING UPSTREAM INTO WY/CO WITH
TREMENDOUS DYNAMIC COOLING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE WITH DECREASING INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW AND
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS SERN WY TERRAIN
BACK TO THE WIND RIVER AND ABSAROKA RANGES WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOCAL MAX NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SWRN SD. MEANWHILE... GUIDANCE
IS IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE AND AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH COOLING OF THE
ENTIRE THERMAL COLUMN FOR STILL MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEST
CENTRAL NE FROM AIA TO TIF.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM... ANOTHER DYNAMIC JET STREAK WILL DIG
AND BOTTOM-OUT OVER THE DESERT SW/FOUR CORNERS REGION. FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
FOR THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY MON... THE SYSTEM WILL FILL WHILE UPPER DYNAMICS SHEAR
DOWNSTREAM AND EXPECT LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW THE ONGOING VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER NORTHEAST TX...NW LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EVOLVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VARIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---BUT THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED PROGRESSION EARLY DAY 1 AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA AND THE
CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CMC GEM FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH ITS TIMING FASTER THAN
THE NMMB---BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW AND HRRR.  AFTER
THIS---THE ARW BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSHING IT THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA BY 0000
UTC---MUCH FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  WHILE THE ARW OFTEN DOES
BEST WITH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION---LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
IT WHEN IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.  THE NSSL WRF AND
CMC GEM WERE SLOWER THAN THE ARW FOR THE 2ND SIX HOUR PERIOD AND
WERE FOLLOWED.  WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MS---TOTALS LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF TX/AR AS INCREASED PROGRESSION
IS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
BEST LARGE SCALE FORCINGS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ARE LATER DAY 1---THE EMPHASIS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE LIFTING  NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES---BUT A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THE CMC GEM...NSSL WRF AND IN HOUSE QPF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNTS AND AXIS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA.  THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FOLLOWED
TO MITIGATE AND SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THIS AREA.

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT IN
THE SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.---WITH THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.   A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN NV--FAR SOUTHERN UT---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AZ---SOUTHWEST CO INTO NW NM.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 527169 523162 517154 505142 498136 492134 487131 482129
      478124 476121 474114 475100 472091 468085 459083 456078
      454072 454056 452032 451019 449006 447995 447981 447914
      450901 450894 451889 454877 454863 453837 452822 452814
      452809 451794 448782 442762 440755 437751 433749 429745
      422740 419738 412737 397735 390734 386737 382738 372743
      370747 368753 366757 364762 361771 358781 355784 351786
      344790 342794 339795 326796 314798 310801 309804 312817
      320831 318839 317843 317850 316863 309870 296878 275904
      264920 263927 264931 264938 266943 264954 266958 266964
      266969 268972 277975 282975 285973 293967 300962 308958
      324951 337942 347937 352936 357934 365928 368925 370921
      372917 376916 383920 387945 391968 394991 397015 399024
      398030 396034 394039 390043 386046 380046 376043 373039
      370035 366033 349032 344032 340034 336037 333040 331045
      331050 334055 337058 338062 337067 336078 333082 330085
      326087 327090 323100 322104 324107 332113 335123 340132
      335144 335149 337154 340157 339160 337160 331159 328160
      325163 326166 331167 335169 341176 343181 346185 352179
      355176 358176 362178 364182 367186 370189 373192 377192
      381195 387196 389193 387188 381181 380175 380165 382160
      383152 387141 397122 400118 404119 411123 412129 408132
      405134 402137 398140 397145 399150 402153 408159 413155
      417156 422155 425153 428148 429141 429136 431133 432140
      434145 437156 442159 444162 446167 448172 449175 449177
      445181 443183 442188 446190 449194 451195 454192 458186
      462183 464178 467170
 0.01 467170 469165 474164 479167 482169 487172 490173 495175
      500176 505177 510178 515179 518178 521178 524174 527169
 0.01 421102 422093 421084 418079 411078 409080 406079 402079
      390082 385095 384102 384106 386108 389108 393107 398106
      406098 406093 408091 408096 410098 410103 412109 418107
      421102
 0.25 441854 438827 439813 439804 437796 434784 431776 427766
      424761 420759 405752 394753 389753 385754 381758 379762
      376769 365785 360792 354798 345805 340812 335832 335838
      336843 339854 340857 339860 336863 330868 314881 301893
      290905 280919 276929 275934 276942 275948 276953 281959
      287959 292958 300954 309950 315945 330933 337927 344923
      352918 359914 367909 373905 378902 383902 387906 387911
      389917 393919 395922 397927 400936 406945 408950 409955
      406963 405969 405975 407989 414038 417047 422053 426056
      430055 434042 437039 439033 441021 441995 441980 441966
      440948 439935 439906 440878 441854
 0.25 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088 428089 428090 428092
      429092 431093 432092
 0.25 376130 376122 373116 370112 370104 370098 371091 373084
      377080 377072 375065 374058 372053 368050 362049 357051
      356055 359066 357072 353074 347085 344090 340091 340099
      340106 342118 344123 347128 352131 356135 358139 359146
      357152 359156 363156 368153 370142 373135 376130
 0.50 438990 438975 438964 437947 437931 436919 435912 435906
      436899 435890 435878 436852 436844 434838 433832 431824
      431817 430809 428797 428786 425775 421766 413764 409761
      404760 398763 395766 388771 383777 371790 348820 345829
      343841 345845 349848 352850 354854 355859 355866 353874
      350879 347883 343886 339887 336888 336885 334880 329879
      323881 316884 309889 302895 297900 291908 286917 283926
      281933 279944 281949 283952 285956 289955 297952 306947
      313943 321937 327930 338919 344914 352910 367898 374893
      378891 381892 385893 388896 392906 394910 397913 401921
      405933 409942 412954 412960 412964 411978 411991 413003
      414014 416027 420037 423041 427042 431036 435024 437011
      438990
 0.50 362110 364108 363105 363103 362101 361100 360098 360097
      359098 359100 358102 358105 358107 359108 360109 360110
      362110 362110
 1.00 434987 435978 434971 430957 424945 419938 419945 419952
      417959 417968 417985 418994 419001 422008 424013 426015
      428016 431011 433004 434995 434987
 1.00 425869 425863 422862 418867 415869 412866 408861 404860
      402864 402870 403876 409879 413885 418889 422889 423886
      423874 425869
 1.00 403790 403786 402785 398785 395786 390789 387792 379800
      373808 371814 368820 362829 362833 366838 369843 370851
      366863 361873 358878 357885 357889 359891 363887 368878
      375871 382861 388854 392849 395843 394830 392823 391816
      396805 400797 403790
 1.00 343906 341904 336903 328904 323904 320902 318899 316894
      311892 306895 300900 297906 292921 289929 287937 288942
      289945 296948 303946 308942 319934 328924 333917 337911
      343906
 1.50 431992 431987 432983 432978 431975 429972 427973 426975
      425980 425985 424989 424994 425999 426001 428001 429999
      431994 431992
 1.50 332915 329910 322910 317908 312905 310898 307897 302900
      300905 297918 297927 296935 295941 297945 303944 307941
      316934 325926 331917 332915
 2.00 326922 326917 323915 313913 308911 306908 302910 301914
      301922 299929 297933 298941 300943 303942 307940 313935
      319930 325924 326922
 3.00 321924 317923 314922 310922 306924 303927 301931 301937
      303940 307937 310935 312932 316929 319926 321924

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW THE ONGOING VERY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER NORTHEAST TX...NW LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EVOLVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  TIMING OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION VARIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---BUT THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED PROGRESSION EARLY DAY 1 AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA AND THE
CURRENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE CMC GEM FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH ITS TIMING FASTER THAN
THE NMMB---BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW AND HRRR.  AFTER
THIS---THE ARW BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS CONVECTION TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSHING IT THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST LA BY 0000
UTC---MUCH FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  WHILE THE ARW OFTEN DOES
BEST WITH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION---LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
IT WHEN IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.  THE NSSL WRF AND
CMC GEM WERE SLOWER THAN THE ARW FOR THE 2ND SIX HOUR PERIOD AND
WERE FOLLOWED.  WHILE HEAVY PRECIP AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE LIKELY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MS---TOTALS LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF TX/AR AS INCREASED PROGRESSION
IS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
BEST LARGE SCALE FORCINGS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 1 AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN ARE LATER DAY 1---THE EMPHASIS FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE 0000-1200 UTC SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL
ALSO BE LIFTING  NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES---BUT A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THE CMC GEM...NSSL WRF AND IN HOUSE QPF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE QPF AXIS DETAILS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNTS AND AXIS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA.  THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FOLLOWED
TO MITIGATE AND SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  LATE SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THIS AREA.

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT IN
THE SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.---WITH THE NEXT CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.   A DEVELOPING
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN NV--FAR SOUTHERN UT---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN AZ---SOUTHWEST CO INTO NW NM.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 527169 523162 517154 505142 498136 492134 487131 482129
      478124 476121 474114 475100 472091 468085 459083 456078
      454072 454056 452032 451019 449006 447995 447981 447914
      450901 450894 451889 454877 454863 453837 452822 452814
      452809 451794 448782 442762 440755 437751 433749 429745
      422740 419738 412737 397735 390734 386737 382738 372743
      370747 368753 366757 364762 361771 358781 355784 351786
      344790 342794 339795 326796 314798 310801 309804 312817
      320831 318839 317843 317850 316863 309870 296878 275904
      264920 263927 264931 264938 266943 264954 266958 266964
      266969 268972 277975 282975 285973 293967 300962 308958
      324951 337942 347937 352936 357934 365928 368925 370921
      372917 376916 383920 387945 391968 394991 397015 399024
      398030 396034 394039 390043 386046 380046 376043 373039
      370035 366033 349032 344032 340034 336037 333040 331045
      331050 334055 337058 338062 337067 336078 333082 330085
      326087 327090 323100 322104 324107 332113 335123 340132
      335144 335149 337154 340157 339160 337160 331159 328160
      325163 326166 331167 335169 341176 343181 346185 352179
      355176 358176 362178 364182 367186 370189 373192 377192
      381195 387196 389193 387188 381181 380175 380165 382160
      383152 387141 397122 400118 404119 411123 412129 408132
      405134 402137 398140 397145 399150 402153 408159 413155
      417156 422155 425153 428148 429141 429136 431133 432140
      434145 437156 442159 444162 446167 448172 449175 449177
      445181 443183 442188 446190 449194 451195 454192 458186
      462183 464178 467170
 0.01 467170 469165 474164 479167 482169 487172 490173 495175
      500176 505177 510178 515179 518178 521178 524174 527169
 0.01 421102 422093 421084 418079 411078 409080 406079 402079
      390082 385095 384102 384106 386108 389108 393107 398106
      406098 406093 408091 408096 410098 410103 412109 418107
      421102
 0.25 441854 438827 439813 439804 437796 434784 431776 427766
      424761 420759 405752 394753 389753 385754 381758 379762
      376769 365785 360792 354798 345805 340812 335832 335838
      336843 339854 340857 339860 336863 330868 314881 301893
      290905 280919 276929 275934 276942 275948 276953 281959
      287959 292958 300954 309950 315945 330933 337927 344923
      352918 359914 367909 373905 378902 383902 387906 387911
      389917 393919 395922 397927 400936 406945 408950 409955
      406963 405969 405975 407989 414038 417047 422053 426056
      430055 434042 437039 439033 441021 441995 441980 441966
      440948 439935 439906 440878 441854
 0.25 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088 428089 428090 428092
      429092 431093 432092
 0.25 376130 376122 373116 370112 370104 370098 371091 373084
      377080 377072 375065 374058 372053 368050 362049 357051
      356055 359066 357072 353074 347085 344090 340091 340099
      340106 342118 344123 347128 352131 356135 358139 359146
      357152 359156 363156 368153 370142 373135 376130
 0.50 438990 438975 438964 437947 437931 436919 435912 435906
      436899 435890 435878 436852 436844 434838 433832 431824
      431817 430809 428797 428786 425775 421766 413764 409761
      404760 398763 395766 388771 383777 371790 348820 345829
      343841 345845 349848 352850 354854 355859 355866 353874
      350879 347883 343886 339887 336888 336885 334880 329879
      323881 316884 309889 302895 297900 291908 286917 283926
      281933 279944 281949 283952 285956 289955 297952 306947
      313943 321937 327930 338919 344914 352910 367898 374893
      378891 381892 385893 388896 392906 394910 397913 401921
      405933 409942 412954 412960 412964 411978 411991 413003
      414014 416027 420037 423041 427042 431036 435024 437011
      438990
 0.50 362110 364108 363105 363103 362101 361100 360098 360097
      359098 359100 358102 358105 358107 359108 360109 360110
      362110 362110
 1.00 434987 435978 434971 430957 424945 419938 419945 419952
      417959 417968 417985 418994 419001 422008 424013 426015
      428016 431011 433004 434995 434987
 1.00 425869 425863 422862 418867 415869 412866 408861 404860
      402864 402870 403876 409879 413885 418889 422889 423886
      423874 425869
 1.00 403790 403786 402785 398785 395786 390789 387792 379800
      373808 371814 368820 362829 362833 366838 369843 370851
      366863 361873 358878 357885 357889 359891 363887 368878
      375871 382861 388854 392849 395843 394830 392823 391816
      396805 400797 403790
 1.00 343906 341904 336903 328904 323904 320902 318899 316894
      311892 306895 300900 297906 292921 289929 287937 288942
      289945 296948 303946 308942 319934 328924 333917 337911
      343906
 1.50 431992 431987 432983 432978 431975 429972 427973 426975
      425980 425985 424989 424994 425999 426001 428001 429999
      431994 431992
 1.50 332915 329910 322910 317908 312905 310898 307897 302900
      300905 297918 297927 296935 295941 297945 303944 307941
      316934 325926 331917 332915
 2.00 326922 326917 323915 313913 308911 306908 302910 301914
      301922 299929 297933 298941 300943 303942 307940 313935
      319930 325924 326922
 3.00 321924 317923 314922 310922 306924 303927 301931 301937
      303940 307937 310935 312932 316929 319926 321924

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300111
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 6R9 25 SE 7F9 15 NNW F18 20 ENE ADM 15 E CFV 35 SW SZL
20 S VIH 35 S PAH 30 N MSL 30 SSW 1M4 25 ESE GTR 50 WSW GTR
30 SSE GLH 30 NE ESF 10 NNW CWF 10 ENE GLS 10 SSE LBX 15 S 3T5
10 W AUS 25 NNW T82 20 NNW 6R9.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE IAH 10 SSW DWH 10 WSW CLL 25 E TPL 10 N LNC 10 E GYI MLC
20 N FSM 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH 20 WSW MLU
20 W DRI 35 ENE IAH.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 25 SSW M89 30 N DTN
20 SW SHV 15 SSE GGG 10 E TYR 20 SE GVT 30 SE DUA 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR ASCENT AND
RICH LOW LEVEL INFLOW POINT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LARGE SCALE INTENSE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AT
01Z A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE
ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH MUCH OF THAT RISK BEING DRIVEN BY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. WE ALSO
EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK DOWN TO ABOUT TYLER AND LONGVIEW ALONG
I-20...WITH SWATHS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING ALREADY FALLEN
AS OBSERVED BY GAUGES AND ESTIMATED BY RADAR. UP NORTH INTO
ARKANSAS...THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD ENDED...BUT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS.
ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 2.5
INCHES IS FORECAST IN ARKANSAS. MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEW
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE EXPANDED PORTION OF THE HIGH
RISK...AND WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND
WRF-NMM SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALL EXCEEDING 7
INCHES AT A GIVEN POINT OVER EAST TEXAS TONIGHT...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE AHEAD OF A MIGRATING
UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT / ENHANCED
WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGHLY FOCUSED OVER EAST TEXAS PER THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE RAP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISING TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE 2.10 INCHES PER LATEST SATELLITE DATA
AND 00Z KCRP SOUNDING. THESE PW VALUES ARE 2.0 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACTING UPON SUCH MOISTURE...EXTREME LOCAL RAIN RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES PER HOUR.

A MORE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXTENDS BACK WESTWARD TO
INCLUDE DRYLINE CONVECTION...BEING DRIVEN MORE BY STRONG
INSTABILITY RATHER THAN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF
TRAINING MAY LEAD TO SURFACE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.


...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS
CONVECTION RIDING UP OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAD PROMPTED A FEW
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...AND MOISTURE CONTENT WAS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...WHILE LOCAL CELL MERGERS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 2.5 INCHES OR MORE.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300111
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 6R9 25 SE 7F9 15 NNW F18 20 ENE ADM 15 E CFV 35 SW SZL
20 S VIH 35 S PAH 30 N MSL 30 SSW 1M4 25 ESE GTR 50 WSW GTR
30 SSE GLH 30 NE ESF 10 NNW CWF 10 ENE GLS 10 SSE LBX 15 S 3T5
10 W AUS 25 NNW T82 20 NNW 6R9.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE IAH 10 SSW DWH 10 WSW CLL 25 E TPL 10 N LNC 10 E GYI MLC
20 N FSM 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH 20 WSW MLU
20 W DRI 35 ENE IAH.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 25 SSW M89 30 N DTN
20 SW SHV 15 SSE GGG 10 E TYR 20 SE GVT 30 SE DUA 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR ASCENT AND
RICH LOW LEVEL INFLOW POINT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LARGE SCALE INTENSE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AT
01Z A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE
ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH MUCH OF THAT RISK BEING DRIVEN BY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. WE ALSO
EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK DOWN TO ABOUT TYLER AND LONGVIEW ALONG
I-20...WITH SWATHS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING ALREADY FALLEN
AS OBSERVED BY GAUGES AND ESTIMATED BY RADAR. UP NORTH INTO
ARKANSAS...THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD ENDED...BUT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS.
ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 2.5
INCHES IS FORECAST IN ARKANSAS. MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEW
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE EXPANDED PORTION OF THE HIGH
RISK...AND WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND
WRF-NMM SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALL EXCEEDING 7
INCHES AT A GIVEN POINT OVER EAST TEXAS TONIGHT...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE AHEAD OF A MIGRATING
UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT / ENHANCED
WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS HIGHLY FOCUSED OVER EAST TEXAS PER THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE RAP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISING TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE 2.10 INCHES PER LATEST SATELLITE DATA
AND 00Z KCRP SOUNDING. THESE PW VALUES ARE 2.0 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACTING UPON SUCH MOISTURE...EXTREME LOCAL RAIN RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CERTAINLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES PER HOUR.

A MORE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXTENDS BACK WESTWARD TO
INCLUDE DRYLINE CONVECTION...BEING DRIVEN MORE BY STRONG
INSTABILITY RATHER THAN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT. BRIEF PERIODS OF
TRAINING MAY LEAD TO SURFACE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN THE HILL COUNTRY.


...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS
CONVECTION RIDING UP OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAD PROMPTED A FEW
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...AND MOISTURE CONTENT WAS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...WHILE LOCAL CELL MERGERS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 2.5 INCHES OR MORE.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300101
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW 6R9 25 SE 7F9 15 NNW F18 20 ENE ADM 15 E CFV 35 SW SZL
20 S VIH 35 S PAH 30 N MSL 30 SSW 1M4 25 ESE GTR 50 WSW GTR
30 SSE GLH 30 NE ESF 10 NNW CWF 10 ENE GLS 10 SSE LBX 15 S 3T5
10 W AUS 25 NNW T82 20 NNW 6R9.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE IAH 10 SSW DWH 10 WSW CLL 25 E TPL 10 N LNC 10 E GYI MLC
20 N FSM 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH 20 WSW MLU
20 W DRI 35 ENE IAH.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 25 SSW M89 30 N DTN
20 SW SHV 15 SSE GGG 10 E TYR 20 SE GVT 30 SE DUA 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR ASCENT AND
RICH LOW LEVEL INFLOW POINT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LARGE SCALE INTENSE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AT
01Z A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE
ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK DOWN TO ABOUT TYLER AND
LONGVIEW ALONG I-20...WITH SWATHS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING
ALREADY FALLEN AS OBSERVED BY GAUGES AND ESTIMATED BY RADAR. UP
NORTH INTO ARKANSAS...THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD
ENDED...BUT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS
CAUSED BY EARLIER INTENSE RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF
1 TO 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST IN ARKANSAS. MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEW RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE EXPANDED
PORTION OF THE HIGH RISK...AND IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 7 INCHES AT A GIVEN POINT OVER EAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE
AHEAD OF A MIGRATING UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT / ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THE WPC QPF FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF AND
WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH A SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN EVENT IN THE STYLE
OF THE HRRR COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 292251
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
650 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...2030Z FINAL PRODUCT...

PUSHED THE MCS IN MS/AL FARTHER FORWARD...PER OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...AND USING THE NSSL WRF AND WRF-ARW AS GUIDANCE. THE MCS
WILL START TO RUN INTO A WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...HOWEVER...SO WE KEPT AMOUNTS MODEST AFTER 00Z. BACK TO
THE WEST...TOOK ANOTHER GOOD LOOK AT TEXAS AND ADJACENT
STATES...AND LARGELY AGREED WITH THE DAY SHIFT. SYNOPTICS FAVOR
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT FOR A QPF MAX...ALTHOUGH
SMALLER SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY ALSO
YIELD EXTREME LOCAL RAIN RATES AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TRENDS IN
THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGESTED NARROWING THE HEAVIER ISOHYETS OVER
OK/KS/MO/AR...AND WE PUSHED THE BACK EDGE THROUGH OK/NORTH TX A
LITTLE QUICKER. -BURKE


...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND EVOLVING TROWAL WILL SHIFT
THE EXPANSIVE MOD-HVY PCPN AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO-EASTERN WY AND
INTO NORTHERN KS...ALL OF NE...AND SOUTHERN SD. INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
ROBUST ALONG-STREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEST OF THE AMPLIFYING...MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD THE
AXIS OF MAX PW AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX WILL EXPAND
W-NW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE STRONG E-NE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS ALLOWING FOR OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO THE QPF. WPC
CONTINUED TO NOTE A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 24 HR AREAL-AVERAGE QPF
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (AROUND 2") NOTED
OVER CENTRAL NE WHERE THERE STATIC STABILITY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST WITH SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE
700-400 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES) NOTED PER THE MODELS.


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND OH VALLEY...

SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A
RECYCLING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO EAST TEXAS NNE ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. POSITIVE PW AND
850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES DURING THIS PERIOD (2 AND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS RESPECTIVELY) ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST COMPARED
TO PRIOR HIGH-IMPACT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN RECENT WEEKS...IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE PROXIMITY WELL DOWNSTREAM (SE) OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
SURFACE FRONT...COINCIDENT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION S-SE-E OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL
LEAD TO REDEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CELL TRAINING... ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS EAST
TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WHERE THE S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL AND AROUND THE SAME OR GREATER MAGNITUDE
AS THE MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS (EAST OF THE DRY LINE). THE AIRMASS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER-CENTRAL TX COAST...IS FAIRLY WELL
CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 9-10C AND SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS...THE 12Z NAM CONEST...12Z RGEM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NSSL-WRF) ARE RATHER BULLISH WITH LOCALIZED 3-5+ INCH AMOUNTS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS AND NW OF THE HOUSTON AREA. AT LEAST
THROUGH 12Z SAT...WPC CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
WITH THE QPF DETAILS NORTH OF HOUSTON-GALVESTON...THOUGH GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF HIGHEST 24 HOUR AMOUNTS (2-3+ INCHES FROM 00Z SAT-00Z SUN)
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST...

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING SLOWLY FROM THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
AMPLIFYING THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS AREAS OF
LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS SAT AFTN WITH THE STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
(WHERE THERE WAS GOOD MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.75").


DAYS 2/3...

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SOUTHERN MEMBER OF A REX BLOCK MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION, DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
HELPS LEAD TO A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. WPC FORECAST IS A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DRAW SOME DECENT
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID ATLANTIC LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS KEPT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS TO THE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO DAY 3.
WPC FORECAST IS A MULTI MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND
LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.


NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL
FEED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
LINE...ALLOWING IT TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY.
THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WIDELY VARIED WITH AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. I NUDGED CONTINUITY TOWARD A MODEL BLEND OF
THE 12 GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO USE AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THE END RESULT IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
CONTINUITY EXCEPT FOR BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND HEAVIER WITH THE
QPF ON DAY 2. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS KEPT IN JUST ABOUT THE SAME
LOCATION AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST. FOR DAY 3...A
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12
GFS HAS THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST VS THE
12Z NAM/ECMWF THE PUSH THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER THAN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE WPC FORECAST INCORPORATE A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. A
SLIGHT RISK WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WHILE THE FORECAST QPF FOR THE DAY 3 EXCESSIVE PERIOD IS
NOT ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO WARRANT A CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING...THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL ON DAYS ONE AND TWO COULD PRIME THE AREA FOR
ISSUES ON DAY 3. ALSO...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN THE FORECAST.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY/KREKELER

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 538196 536191 536184 537176 534171 528163 522157 507145
      491132 485128 479122 475121 474118 474114 475107 475103
      472093 469080 466068 461057 455037 452026 450013 447954
      445929 443917 440907 426864 425860 424853 420841 414817
      411805 409800 406795 396780 392773 389769 385769 381770
      378772 372774 369772 364764 363762 359762 354764 349771
      346776 343779 333780 330783 331789 335789 339788 341787
      341791 340796 336804 333809 329811 317812 311812 306812
      296812 293811 288811 283810 279812 273812 269811 263808
      259806 255808 254811 254814 257819 259822 264823 273825
      278826 282829 297837 301839 305842 312849 319866 320871
      317873 311879 306884 300891 295901 290909 283927 263957
      259964 255968 256971 257979 259983 261984 266983 271983
      273984 272987 271990 272994 273999 275004 284004 295989
      303984 312981 322978 326976 332975 339972 348976 353977
      356979 363985 375001 380009 382012 382018 382025 380029
      376038 368036 362036 357037 349042 343049 338056 337062
      333064 329068 329072 337077 337082 332080 328081 330086
      331099 326107 336117 340126 343133 353149 356153 356159
      359163 357167 355171 356177 353180 348178 344169 340167
      334166 329165 327165 326167 326173 329177 334185 339193
      344199 347201 349196 351191 353190 356190 362192 364194
      380204 396215 400216 404214 402210 404207 408204 410202
      413203 415205 419204 427187 430188 431185 432176 432169
      431166 424161 423157 423151 424137 431129 434126 436124
      438124 434135 433142 433147 433155 435160 437163 443170
 0.01 443170 445172 446175 441181 439185 444190 448195 452193
      457188 462186 466180 465177 467173 473173 476177 479180
      482181 489185 500191 504192 506195 513198 518202 521205
      523208 527208 532203 538196
 0.01 497794 496782 493776 491774 487775 483778 479786 478792
      475800 472806 470814 466819 464828 464836 465839 466845
      470848 473850 476851 483850 485848 487845 488841 488836
      488824 490818 493811 495802 497794
 0.01 464226 464221 463218 454215 447215 440216 435219 430224
      434230 440230 446228 453227 461229 464226
 0.01 432757 431748 428741 424731 412708 406699 403693 401688
      398683 396681 392682 386683 380685 375689 372693 370698
      368704 366716 365724 367728 375733 380736 383738 393744
      398745 402748 402764 405770 409773 420771 425772 428769
      431762 432757
 0.01 416137 416135 416132 416130 415127 414126 412126 411126
      410126 409127 407128 407131 408132 410133 410134 411135
      412136 413137 415139 416137
 0.01 420095 420085 418079 416077 413077 409080 405084 399085
      394098 388098 383101 379106 379110 382111 389111 393110
      395108 396103 397101 399102 402103 404099 404095 405093
      407090 409091 412096 414104 417102 420095
 0.01 407128 405127 403127 402127 403129 405129 407128
 0.01 356071 355069 353069 351069 349070 350073 351074 353075
      354073 354072 356071
 0.25 531189 530183 528177 523171 519167 514166 506162 501161
      497162 491165 487167 489171 492174 497176 505179 512185
      520191 523192 526192 531189
 0.25 484135 482134 481133 479132 477134 477137 479137 481136
      482136 484135
 0.25 446109 444105 445101 445095 442091 440088 437086 434088
      431092 431094 433099 433107 437108 440111 444110 446109
 0.25 444041 445034 444027 444016 442991 441980 440969 437947
      433925 428905 422888 416870 403832 398815 397803 396798
      393796 385797 377801 371807 367815 364823 360829 357836
      352844 348850 343851 340854 337856 332856 327856 324861
      325866 323870 320877 309886 304893 300900 294917 291924
      288933 284949 281959 281963 282966 284976 285980 287985
      299977 313969 342954 350953 358954 366958 370964 395030
      398039 401048 406054 412059 419064 424069 430070 435070
      438069 444041
 0.25 432109 432107 430106 428105 427106 425108 426110 426111
      428112 429112 430111 431109 432109
 0.25 412155 412150 409148 405144 400139 397138 395140 390142
      386143 385145 391158 391160 389162 382162 384175 382188
      385191 387187 391183 394175 398169 401162 405158 411156
      412155
 0.25 385198 384197 384195 383194 381194 380194 381197 382198
      384198 385198
 0.25 398062 393060 387063 382063 378064 375063 371062 368063
      370066 374071 376078 378080 381076 385071 392071 396066
      398062
 0.25 393117 392114 389113 383114 374118 361119 356117 351113
      346112 345116 348122 352126 363132 373138 374141 377143
      382142 382135 384128 388125 391119 393117
 0.25 381716 381713 381711 380709 378709 376710 374711 374713
      373714 373715 373717 374718 375719 376720 378721 379719
      380718 381717 381716
 0.25 368158 368156 368153 367151 365151 363152 361154 360156
      361157 362158 364159 366160 368158 368158
 0.25 367052 367050 367049 365048 363048 361048 360048 359049
      359051 359052 361053 363053 365053 367052 367052
 0.25 337891 336891 335891 334891 335891 336892 337891
 0.50 438038 440031 440024 439011 438985 436964 434953 432942
      429933 427922 422902 416883 410866 405857 402856 399860
      398862 394862 391859 388855 383849 378848 374849 367856
      365863 360881 355883 351884 345890 337903 335906 330908
      325908 321907 312894 309892 305893 303897 301901 299910
      296920 292937 286953 286958 286964 288975 290978 295977
      300973 305967 314965 321962 328958 335954 341949 348943
      355941 361937 364929 371924 374921 377920 380920 381924
      380926 375934 373937 373941 379946 382945 386947 389953
      390958 389963 388969 385971 380978 377981 376985 387997
      395010 399018 401029 407035 412041 419055 422059 426061
      429059 431056 438038
 0.50 392805 392803 390800 388801 385803 383805 381807 379809
      378812 379816 381818 383818 384818 388816 389814 391810
      392808 392805
 0.50 366126 366124 365121 363121 361121 360120 359121 357121
      356122 357124 357125 359125 361126 362126 364126 366126
 0.50 355122 354120 353119 352119 353122 354122 355122
 0.50 334869 334867 333867 332866 330866 328868 327870 326871
      326872 326874 327875 327876 328878 329880 330880 332878
      332877 332876 333874 333872 334870 334869
 1.00 433021 435011 435000 433983 430967 425954 422949 418943
      416938 414929 412921 409915 403924 397926 392929 396932
      402933 407938 410943 412945 412948 410950 409954 404967
      397977 389985 391991 394996 408017 416027 420032 426034
      429031 431027 433021
 1.00 389888 389882 387878 384876 381877 377884 374887 372887
      351898 345902 341909 328916 322920 315922 311905 310899
      308896 305897 304901 300918 299927 296937 291952 292956
      294958 300959 303958 314962 328955 334951 339946 345941
      349935 353928 358923 363917 369912 376899 380896 384893
      389888
 1.50 431004 431997 430990 429983 427978 423966 420962 416960
      413965 412970 409976 407980 401989 399991 399994 401998
      408007 415014 419017 425016 428012 430006 431004
 1.50 339939 339934 336932 333933 330932 334926 335921 330921
      321923 314926 310923 308918 308914 309910 308905 306901
      305903 303912 302917 302922 297940 294949 295954 299955
      304954 310955 317957 331949 337944 339939
 2.00 421992 421986 419982 416977 415980 415985 415989 413994
      413000 415005 418006 419001 420994 421992
 2.00 332943 330941 327941 322941 324937 325927 316929 305930
      302933 301937 297947 297952 301952 310951 319953 327949
      330946 332943
 3.00 311939 311937 310935 308936 307937 306937 305939 304939
      303941 302943 301945 301946 303947 305946 305945 307945
      308943 310941 310940 311939

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 505680 504678 503677 501677 500678 498679 497680 498681
      499682 500683 502683 503682 505681 505680
 0.01 498659 497654 496652 494648 492646 490644 487647 485648
      484651 483654 482659 482664 484666 488668 490668 493667
      494666 497662 498659
 0.01 468722 466705 466701 465698 463694 459692 455692 450691
      444693 439694 435693 428691 425688 423684 418675 410659
      406658 401659 394665 382659 380656 375657 370659 368662
      371666 372674 373680 372686 371697 370703 368709 362715
      361725 359734 357737 356742 358747 359753 357764 353772
      347778 345780 341779 339780 337784 337788 333790 328792
      324794 293815 288816 284818 282822 284826 289825 292824
      294826 295831 297834 302838 303849 304855 307858 308862
      308866 305874 300876 297878 292885 287893 282900 277907
      273915 268918 262919 258926 257929 258934 261941 264950
      267956 274960 275962 274965 273970 270978 267980 271984
      272987 273993 275997 278000 281003 278006 275007 272005
      267009 269013 272015 274020 277024 283028 292030 297030
      300032 304035 307039 320048 329053 332055 334057 332061
      329068 327072 326077 325081 327083 329092 329097 330101
      328103 324110 322113 325115 327118 330118 332121 334126
      334131 332134 327141 343139 347142 349142 357141 365139
      371139 374142 373147 370151 368154 365152 361152 359154
      354153 354158 352163 351169 351174 355183 360187 361193
      366199 374204 375207 381209 384207 385205 378158 382156
      385152 386146 385141 385136 388135 391137 391140 393145
      394150 397154 401156 406157 414155 416152 418148 417139
      418134 421132 425131 427127 432120 440115 446109 450107
      455108 456105 455100 454095 451090 449087 448081 448068
      442057 440049 440046 441043 443040 444034 442031 441028
      441023 443018 446009 447993 448989 448981 448968 447954
      448941 449931 448920 445864 447852 446845 447839 448816
      449812 449805 449798 452796 460783 464775 466770 466764
      466737 468722
 0.01 426103 420093 421083 423081 423077 420071 415067 408067
      407070 406074 400084 398090 396094 396099 398106 397110
      396117 397122 396127 398130 405131 416129 419123 421117
      423107 426103
 0.01 417099 415097 413094 412094 410094 407096 406098 404100
      405102 407105 409106 411105 413104 415101 417099
 0.01 403063 402060 400059 399060 399062 400064 402064 403063
 0.01 399970 400964 398959 396956 396951 396946 395940 390940
      387938 376929 373928 371930 364932 358938 352941 345941
      339939 336939 332941 328946 323950 323956 321962 321968
      321971 319974 308982 303989 308993 311999 314002 318003
      328003 333003 336001 342997 346993 354991 360987 366983
      369987 382995 385999 389006 394012 394003 393993 394983
      399970
 0.01 313131 311128 309128 307130 309132 311132 313131 313131
 0.01 301861 301859 300859 298859 300861 301861
 0.25 449755 449747 447742 441735 436728 432727 428729 421730
      412728 409726 406722 405717 403713 399710 397705 395701
      392700 389701 382707 376712 371719 368726 367732 370736
      371740 370745 367754 365759 365765 363775 361779 358783
      349796 342800 338803 335806 331814 329819 328825 333831
      338838 340842 339846 338855 336860 333863 330866 326868
      320869 317871 311880 306885 304889 302894 299901 294908
      289915 285923 277926 270926 266929 266932 268935 276939
      278942 279948 281950 285952 290953 293956 299961 305961
      309959 314950 317942 319939 323937 344912 357897 368887
      372888 374891 378899 380903 383902 388895 391889 393885
      399877 403871 408863 413862 417862 419865 421870 426870
      428867 429854 430848 431842 431834 429825 429820 429813
      431802 432791 437785 443779 447770 449755
 0.25 436988 437982 437978 435971 428961 425956 421953 410952
      407959 406966 407973 407980 405988 405993 406002 410005
      415004 420002 431999 435994 436988
 0.25 386088 388080 386075 384063 384059 387054 387049 383045
      369034 364034 361037 356044 353050 353057 354061 355065
      353067 346073 344078 343085 344093 344098 344104 342109
      348129 352131 358133 361131 364128 367122 367115 373109
      377104 380101 384092 386088
 0.50 431769 431764 428760 426757 422754 417752 413746 409740
      403738 400736 399732 396723 391717 388715 382717 377721
      377730 377740 376747 373754 371758 370763 348820 349825
      351826 358821 362822 366821 369822 368826 367834 365841
      352845 351854 344859 340865 336870 330874 323875 319877
      317879 312884 297910 292915 290922 288929 287934 288939
      290943 293944 296943 298946 300948 304949 310945 314939
      318935 323930 328924 337912 341905 344899 348895 354890
      363881 366876 367873 370869 373868 378864 381855 383852
      385852 388849 390846 396830 401825 403822 406818 406809
      408806 411804 419803 421799 422796 427779 431769
 0.50 421837 421834 421832 421830 420829 419828 417828 416830
      415832 415833 415835 416836 416837 418839 419841 421839
      421838 421837
 0.50 383083 383079 382076 381074 380071 378069 375067 373066
      371068 371070 369075 368079 370083 372084 375086 377087
      380088 382085 383083
 0.50 372055 373053 372050 370049 369049 367050 366050 365050
      363051 362052 361052 359054 361055 363055 365055 366056
      368056 370056 372055 372055
 0.50 363101 363100 363099 361097 360097 358097 358098 357100
      358101 358102 359104 361104 362103 363102 363101
 1.00 391817 392812 392808 390805 387804 384806 383809 383813
      384818 384822 385825 387824 389822 390819 391817
 1.00 383763 384761 383759 382758 380757 379759 378760 378762
      379764 379765 381765 383764 383763
 1.00 367802 365801 363801 361802 360803 358805 357806 356807
      356808 355810 355812 355813 357814 359814 360812 361812
      362810 362809 364807 365805 366804 367802 367802
 1.00 350866 349864 348863 346864 345864 344865 343866 344869
      346869 348869 349868 350866 350866
 1.00 337902 338896 338892 336884 333882 329882 322883 317886
      314892 310897 306903 300914 297921 298926 301934 305939
      310935 314930 320926 324922 331911 337902
 1.50 334902 335898 334894 332889 326888 323888 320889 315898
      312902 309905 304914 303919 303924 304932 307933 314924
      318922 322919 326911 333903 334902
 2.00 331895 329893 326892 322891 320893 317899 313906 308911
      306918 307920 312920 319918 322913 326906 331900 331895
 3.00 321902 321900 320900 320902 320904 321902


24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 440631 447636 451638 455640 460639 464639 471638 474641
      475647 474652 472662 476666 478670 485673 491681 499685
      505689 506691 507696 508704 508709 506714 500723 496730
      494733 489734 484735 481736 479739 476751 478755 477760
      476765 472768 467769 464770 463775 458776 456773 454767
      452763 448761 446762 445766 444768 441767 438768 437770
      434775 430782 429792 427805 425817 422827 420832 420839
      419845 419849 420852 422855 424861 424867 422872 416882
      410887 404883 389877 380873 375871 373869 372857 371852
      368856 368862 366868 362877 364887 365893 366900 363911
      360921 363932 368942 372950 377956 385951 389952 391949
      395949 398947 398945 401944 401948 404951 405956 406964
      407968 408976 411978 414980 415984 408998 406001 405005
      406009 408020 409026 409031 410035 410040 411047 411052
      410057 409072 407082 409091 412094 413099 412110 406115
      402125 394128 390130 386132 387137 390141 400143 402144
      402146 399152 398157 395162 392166 387169 377167 374164
      374157 372148 372141 371137 363139 362142 357143 352141
      348139 345136 342131 342120 339111 337105 337101 333091
      333086 334080 331073 329068 332066 337065 343067 348069
      351069 353066 354064 354061 350059 347056 342055 338056
      334056 332053 332047 334043 330041 324041 320042 311045
      305045 301043 295042 293039 289036 286039 282045 278044
      275042 271032 270026 266025 257025 254020 254016 253012
      249010 241006 234002 232999 232994 231989 233985 236982
      239981 246973 253970 257967 258963 259957 257954 255949
      258946 262937 265934 270932 274931 280930 284927 286922
      291914 292909 291904 289894 289889 291886 294884 296881
      304867 305864 304857 303852 300847 284817 282817 279815
      275812 269805 274803 281802 287808 293812 304810 309809
      313807 317805 317803 315802 313805 311804 307799 305797
      304791 309784 312783 314781 315777 316770 319767 323764
      327762 328758 331748 342735
 0.01 342735 344730 346727 349724 352720 353715 354710 355706
      355701 355694 355690 355683 356678 358675 360670 362667
      364663
 0.01 498662 496655 496652 495644 492643 488644 485646 482652
      483656 482661 484664 486667 490668 495666 497663 498662
 0.01 473036 472031 474026 474023 471021 466021 463020 459020
      456025 452027 452031 454034 457037 460040 465040 469041
      470038 473036
 0.01 402097 399095 398093 394092 393090 390091 389093 386095
      385097 383101 384105 386106 389108 391106 393105 396103
      398101 400099 402097
 0.01 389201 389199 388196 386194 384195 384196 382197 382200
      383202 385203 387203 389201
 0.01 407912 405910 403910 401910 399910 398913 396913 394913
      392915 394917 396920 398920 400920 401917 403917 405915
      407912
 0.01 377194 378188 377182 372179 371176 373175 372168 367161
      360162 354166 353173 360179 362186 367191 368194 372196
      375196 377194
 0.01 369178 367178 365178 367178 369178 369178
 0.01 377110 375107 373106 372107 371107 370109 370111 369113
      369115 368117 367119 368121 370120 371118 371116 369115
      371115 372113 373113 374111 375109 377110 377110
 0.25 421637 424641 429643 436646 440648 442653 442662 444669
      456683 463690 470693 474696 477702 476707 474713 470721
      467726 463730 449741 442747 435755 432759 427761 419766
      415769 415775 413779 410781 408780 405777 401780 395784
      387780 384777 380775 377778 372780 364780 359781 356779
      352775 348774 339771 337764 338754 340749 343746 348743
      351738 355730 360723 364714 368705 370693 370682 372670
      372662 375655
 0.25 400807 400800 398795 395793 389794 386795 383798 381798
      378802 373810 367815 367820 369823 374823 379821 386815
      391810 396807 398807 400807
 0.25 350760 348760 346760 346761 348762 350761 350760
 0.25 353974 355970 354966 352960 352948 354939 355930 354923
      352909 348900 344892 343886 343877 344853 341851 338853
      334855 328859 322867 317875 304888 300898 299905 297916
      293927 288936 282942 277950 276955 274962 271973 265979
      262982 261984 262988 264994 264996 263004 265009 267013
      271015 280018 288023 308030 317031 328033 336027 342020
      347011 348006 348998 348990 349983 351977 353974
 0.25 313983 312981 311981 310982 308983 310985 312985 313983
 0.25 306000 306999 305998 304998 302998 301000 302000 304001
      306001 306000
 0.25 281999 281997 281995 281993 280992 279992 277992 276993
      276995 276997 277998 278999 280000 281999
 0.25 256002 256998 255995 254992 251990 250989 248990 246993
      244996 244998 245000 247002 249003 252004 253004 256002
 0.50 407641 413647 417651 424651 432651 441687 442708 441716
      437718 434717 431716 428713 425711 423710 417713 414716
      412720 408726 404734 400749 397757 393763 392766 389768
      381767 378769 376772 373774 370775 364773 360772 360769
      364753 366746 365737 363732 364727 366719 372706 373696
      373688 374679 375669 383648
 0.50 438729 438726 437725 435726 434727 434729 434730 434732
      436731 437729 438729
 0.50 432742 433740 433737 431735 429736 428737 427738 426740
      426741 425743 427745 428748 429750 431748 431747 432745
      432744 432742
 0.50 426732 426729 425728 423727 421727 420728 419730 420733
      422733 424732 425732 426732
 0.50 425744 424741 423741 422742 421743 421744 422745 424746
      425744
 0.50 347969 346963 343960 339963 337963 336967 335973 333975
      330975 326977 323979 315998 313002 309006 305008 300006
      295004 289002 285004 281007 280011 283016 287018 292018
      303022 308021 311017 316018 320020 323024 326029 330029
      334025 339017 342013 343006 340993 341988 342982 346971
      347969
 0.50 345939 346933 345928 343921 342914 339906 334893 336878
      336867 333863 330866 326872 320885 316890 312889 309891
      300918 296933 290945 287949 283956 277966 276971 276976
      276980 279981 283983 290981 298979 299973 303972 310969
      315966 321964 325960 332958 336952 339947 343943 345939
 0.50 301989 301987 301985 299985 298987 298989 299990 301990
      301989
 1.00 433691 433689 432687 432684 431683 431682 429681 428682
      427683 427686 427687 426688 427690 427693 429695 431694
      432691 433691
 1.00 418671 417665 415661 409656 395652 393647 389648 387656
      382663 379670 378691 377701 375710 373719 374724 378725
      381725 383722 388716 393709 395705 397705 400703 402699
      404689 415679 418671
 1.00 338941 339935 338931 335924 331911 329908 325908 319910
      312913 310914 309918 312924 310929 303939 299944 296950
      295955 295959 296962 299964 304963 306962 310957 317954
      323953 329950 334946 338941
 1.00 295012 296010 295008 294008 293007 291006 289007 287007
      287008 285010 286012 287012 289013 291014 293013 294012
      295012
 1.50 410666 409662 406660 401661 396661 392660 389662 385666
      382672 383681 383688 380700 378707 377714 379717 382716
      385711 390700 393687 396682 400676 409669 410666
 1.50 334936 333930 330925 329921 326920 323920 321924 319929
      316935 313939 310945 312948 316949 322947 327944 332941
      334936
 2.00 393676 393673 394671 393669 392667 391666 389667 389668
      388669 387670 387673 387675 387677 388679 388680 390680
      391679 392678 393676 393676


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 292245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
645 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW TPL INJ 15 SE GLE 10 SSW SNL ASG 35 E UNO 35 S PAH
30 NNW MSL 30 W 1M4 GWO 20 ESE MLU 15 ESE POE 10 SSW GLS
10 NNE KRP 55 E COT 10 SE RND 10 SW TPL.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GVT DUA 15 N MLC 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH
25 WSW MLU 15 WSW DRI 25 WNW BPT 15 NNW LBX 20 NNW 5R5
30 NNE CLL 25 W TYR GVT.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 30 NE TXK
30 ESE LBR 15 SSW LBR PRX 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...22Z UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE DAY 1 RISK AREAS.
UPDATED TEXT TO REFRESH THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED STATE OF CONVECTION
AND TO DESCRIBE LATEST THINKING. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT
OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE MOST INTENSE
PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD ENDED OVER THIS AREA...BUT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS CAUSED BY EARLIER
INTENSE RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE HIGH RISK AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES.

A MODERATE RISK EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH
03-05Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR IN NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...WHERE THE MID LEVEL
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE AHEAD OF A MIGRATING UPPER
TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT / ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

GRADUALLY THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED SHIFT SOUTHWARD...INTO THE PINEY
WOODS OVERNIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL PEAKS FROM LONGVIEW TO LUFKIN
TO NEAR HOUSTON...IN TERMS OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER ASCENT. HENCE...THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS FAIRLY WIDE FROM THE PINEY WOODS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT THEN NARROWS TOWARD HOUSTON...WITH A QPF
GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER VALUES BEING FORECAST WEST OF HOUSTON.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE...AND ALSO PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT...AS
OUTLINED IN RECENT MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION NUMBER 0151.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM THE NSSL WRF AND GEM REGIONAL...AND MOST
NOTABLY THE HRRR...FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES TO OCCUR IN A FOCUSED
WAY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IN THE HRRR HAS BEEN MIGRATING...HOWEVER...FROM RUN TO
RUN. WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT MAXIMIZED FARTHER NORTH...ANY ANCHORED AND
WELL DEVELOPED EVENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY INITIATE FROM THE
STORM SCALE UP...WHICH AFFORDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHICH
AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THOUGH...AND ANCHORED...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
BE AT THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM...GIVEN STRONG CAPE AND
INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES AND
2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.

THE WPC QPF FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF AND
WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH A SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN EVENT IN THE STYLE
OF THE HRRR COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 292245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
645 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW TPL INJ 15 SE GLE 10 SSW SNL ASG 35 E UNO 35 S PAH
30 NNW MSL 30 W 1M4 GWO 20 ESE MLU 15 ESE POE 10 SSW GLS
10 NNE KRP 55 E COT 10 SE RND 10 SW TPL.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GVT DUA 15 N MLC 20 NW BVX 20 NE NQA 20 SSE OLV 45 N GLH
25 WSW MLU 15 WSW DRI 25 WNW BPT 15 NNW LBX 20 NNW 5R5
30 NNE CLL 25 W TYR GVT.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
RUE 10 NE SRC 30 NE SGT 15 ESE SGT 10 W PBF 30 NE TXK
30 ESE LBR 15 SSW LBR PRX 35 ESE MLC RUE.


...22Z UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE DAY 1 RISK AREAS.
UPDATED TEXT TO REFRESH THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED STATE OF CONVECTION
AND TO DESCRIBE LATEST THINKING. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLATEX...PARTS OF ADJACENT
OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE MOST INTENSE
PERIOD OF RAINFALL HAD ENDED OVER THIS AREA...BUT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...COMPOUNDING THE ONGOING PROBLEMS CAUSED BY EARLIER
INTENSE RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE HIGH RISK AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES.

A MODERATE RISK EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH
03-05Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR IN NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH RISK AREA...WHERE THE MID LEVEL
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESPONSE AHEAD OF A MIGRATING UPPER
TROUGH WILL OVERLAP WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT / ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

GRADUALLY THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED SHIFT SOUTHWARD...INTO THE PINEY
WOODS OVERNIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL PEAKS FROM LONGVIEW TO LUFKIN
TO NEAR HOUSTON...IN TERMS OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER ASCENT. HENCE...THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS FAIRLY WIDE FROM THE PINEY WOODS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT THEN NARROWS TOWARD HOUSTON...WITH A QPF
GRADIENT TOWARD LESSER VALUES BEING FORECAST WEST OF HOUSTON.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE...AND ALSO PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT...AS
OUTLINED IN RECENT MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION NUMBER 0151.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM THE NSSL WRF AND GEM REGIONAL...AND MOST
NOTABLY THE HRRR...FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES TO OCCUR IN A FOCUSED
WAY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IN THE HRRR HAS BEEN MIGRATING...HOWEVER...FROM RUN TO
RUN. WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT MAXIMIZED FARTHER NORTH...ANY ANCHORED AND
WELL DEVELOPED EVENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY INITIATE FROM THE
STORM SCALE UP...WHICH AFFORDS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHICH
AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THOUGH...AND ANCHORED...THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
BE AT THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM...GIVEN STRONG CAPE AND
INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES AND
2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.

THE WPC QPF FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NSSL WRF AND
WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH A SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN EVENT IN THE STYLE
OF THE HRRR COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 292055
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 00Z SAT APR 30 2016 - 00Z TUE MAY 3 2016

DAYS 1-3...

***CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA***

A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL,
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH POINT WEAKENING
OCCURS AND THE FEATURE BECOMES MORE SHEARED OUT.  INCREASING LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS TOWARDS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL RESULT
IN COOLING UPSLOPE FLOW AND TRANSITIONING TO A DYNAMIC COOLING
SITUATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROSPECTS OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS, BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN THE FORECAST IS A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARYING SOME WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.  THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE QPF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS, THUS LEADING TO
SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NEBRASKA AND THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES HERE ARE THE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST, AND A DIFFERENCE OF JUST A FEW DEGREES COULD RESULT IN
NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN THE OBSERVED SNOWFALL TOTALS.  IN
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS, THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
SNOWFALL RATES, WITH BETTER DYNAMIC COOLING IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND OVERCOMING WARMER ANTECEDENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES.  LOW SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT OVER THE PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE NEXT JET
STREAK AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES WILL
LIKELY GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HAMRICK/KOCIN

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 292054
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND EVOLVING TROWAL WILL SHIFT
THE EXPANSIVE MOD-HVY PCPN AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO-EASTERN WY AND
INTO NORTHERN KS...ALL OF NE...AND SOUTHERN SD. INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
ROBUST ALONG-STREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEST OF THE AMPLIFYING...MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD THE
AXIS OF MAX PW AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX WILL EXPAND
W-NW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE STRONG E-NE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS ALLOWING FOR OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO THE QPF. WPC
CONTINUED TO NOTE A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 24 HR AREAL-AVERAGE QPF
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (AROUND 2") NOTED
OVER CENTRAL NE WHERE THERE STATIC STABILITY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKEST WITH SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE
700-400 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES) NOTED PER THE MODELS.


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND OH VALLEY...

SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A
RECYCLING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS INTO EAST TEXAS NNE ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS
VALLEY...WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. POSITIVE PW AND
850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES DURING THIS PERIOD (2 AND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS RESPECTIVELY) ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST COMPARED
TO PRIOR HIGH-IMPACT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN RECENT WEEKS...IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE PROXIMITY WELL DOWNSTREAM (SE) OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
SURFACE FRONT...COINCIDENT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION S-SE-E OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL
LEAD TO REDEVELOPING LINE SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CELL TRAINING... ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS EAST
TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WHERE THE S-SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL AND AROUND THE SAME OR GREATER MAGNITUDE
AS THE MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS (EAST OF THE DRY LINE). THE AIRMASS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER-CENTRAL TX COAST...IS FAIRLY WELL
CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 9-10C AND SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS...THE 12Z NAM CONEST...12Z RGEM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
NSSL-WRF) ARE RATHER BULLISH WITH LOCALIZED 3-5+ INCH AMOUNTS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS AND NW OF THE HOUSTON AREA. AT LEAST
THROUGH 12Z SAT...WPC CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
WITH THE QPF DETAILS NORTH OF HOUSTON-GALVESTON...THOUGH GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AND MESOANALYSIS HAVE SHIFTED THE
AREA OF HIGHEST 24 HOUR AMOUNTS (2-3+ INCHES FROM 00Z SAT-00Z SUN)
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST...

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING SLOWLY FROM THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
AMPLIFYING THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS AREAS OF
LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS SAT AFTN WITH THE STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
(WHERE THERE WAS GOOD MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.75").

HURLEY


DAYS 2/3...

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SOUTHERN MEMBER OF A REX BLOCK MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION, DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
HELPS LEAD TO A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. WPC FORECAST IS A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DRAW SOME DECENT
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID ATLANTIC LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS KEPT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS TO THE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO DAY 3.
WPC FORECAST IS A MULTI MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND
LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.


NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL
FEED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
LINE...ALLOWING IT TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY.
THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WIDELY VARIED WITH AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. I NUDGED CONTINUITY TOWARD A MODEL BLEND OF
THE 12 GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO USE AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH. THE END RESULT IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
CONTINUITY EXCEPT FOR BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND HEAVIER WITH THE
QPF ON DAY 2. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS KEPT IN JUST ABOUT THE SAME
LOCATION AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST. FOR DAY 3...A
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12
GFS HAS THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST VS THE
12Z NAM/ECMWF THE PUSH THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER THAN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE WPC FORECAST INCORPORATE A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE LOCAL ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. A
SLIGHT RISK WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WHILE THE FORECAST QPF FOR THE DAY 3 EXCESSIVE PERIOD IS
NOT ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO WARRANT A CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING...THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL ON DAYS ONE AND TWO COULD PRIME THE AREA FOR
ISSUES ON DAY 3. ALSO...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN THE FORECAST.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY/KREKELER

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 497326 490323 489322 488317 489309 493306 490299 489293
      490286 494280 497276 501272 506271 512273 516275 517273
      519274
 0.01 537196 536190 536181 536174 533171 529164 522157 492133
      478121 473097 468077 465067 461057 454035 452025 450013
      447956 446945 445931 444926 444920 440909 434887 426864
      420840 414817 412807 410801 408797 402788 397781 390772
      388769 382770 379772 372774 368771 366767 364763 360762
      355763 352766 348773 346776 343779 332780 330784 331789
      336789 339788 342788 341791 340796 338801 335806 333809
      326811 315812 310812 307812 297812 293811 288811 284810
      279811 275813 273817 272820 275823 282829 297837 307841
      315845 318847 320853 325859 322862 321868 318873 315875
      312871 308869 303867 300889 297899 294906 286922 276939
      265955 257969 257976 258980 259984 262983 268983 270984
      271986 269992 270997 271003 275004 281004 284002 294990
      299983 308981 317977 326971 330968 336967 339967 341970
      342975 345984 347989 349992 365004 372009 378014 377024
      376031 374036 364036 357038 352039 349042 344049 338056
      337069 349070 354069 356071 354073 349080 349082 351086
      354091 354095 352099 349098 344089 339082 334081 332079
      329081 330088 331099 327105 326109 330111 334113 336117
      343136 366166 369169 372174 372178 370180 364179 361180
      357182 348182 344171 343168 336166 332164 327163 326166
      328169 332176 337184 341193 343197 347200 349197 351192
      355189 361191 376202 384207 393213 397215 401215 403214
      402210 400205 401199 402196 405196 409199 417203 419204
      422201 424198 423191 424187 427187 430187 432172 431166
      426163 423160 423155 424141
 0.01 424141 425136 426134 430130 437123 438127 437129 434135
      433144 433150 435161 442169 446173 444177 439185 448194
      455191 458187 463184 464179 461176 458174 456172 456168
      458166 460164 463165 467169 472171 476175 481178 484181
      505193 509196 515199 523208 526209 530205 537196
 0.01 509807 509802 507796 505792 502790 496785 492777 490774
      486775 480782 478791 477796 475800 472807 469816 466819
      465824 464829 464834 466844 470844 473848 478852 485851
      493852 497850 498847 499841 499835 499828 498822 497817
      499814 503813 506815 509810 509807
 0.01 464226 464221 463218 454215 447215 440216 435219 430224
      434230 440230 446228 453227 461229 464226
 0.01 432757 431747 428740 422730 417717 411706 405696 398686
      392683 388681 382680 378680 376682 369684 365688 358696
      356703 355706 356710 361722 366726 370728 378735 386743
      392752 394757 395761 396768 400774 404776 416774 426772
      429767 430763 432757
 0.01 416137 416130 414126 410126 407128 403127 400125 397125
      394125 394128 398131 403132 406133 409137 413140 416137
 0.01 420095 420086 418079 416077 413077 409080 405084 402084
      399085 394098 388098 383101 379105 379110 382111 389111
      393110 395108 396103 397101 399102 402103 404100 404095
      405093 407090 409091 412096 414104 417102 420095
 0.25 527188 528181 527177 523171 518166 510163 506162 501163
      500165 496166 495170 497172 503177 509183 514187 520192
      526190 527188
 0.25 484135 482134 481133 480132 479132 477133 477134 477136
      477137 479137 481136 482136 484135
 0.25 446109 444105 445101 445095 442091 440088 437086 434088
      431092 431094 433099 433107 437108 440110 444110 446109
 0.25 443041 445033 444026 444016 442990 441981 440968 437945
      433924 427905 424895 421885 415868 402830 399818 397808
      397802 395797 392796 388796 379799 373805 369811 367821
      366825 366831 366836 364839 351850 349853 351855 349859
      347861 330866 324871 321877 314882 307888 302895 300902
      295920 292930 288937 285944 282952 280962 282971 285978
      293981 305974 311970 319966 333958 340953 348951 351953
      352957 353971 353976 356977 362977 366978 374993 385006
      389012 393021 396028 399037 402046 406053 411059 419064
      424069 427071 430070 435070 439068 441064 441057 442046
      443041
 0.25 432109 432107 430106 428105 427105 426106 425108 426110
      426111 428112 429112 430111 431109 432109
 0.25 413155 412150 410149 407147 405144 402141 399139 396140
      391142 386140 383135 384129 391119 393116 392114 386113
      381115 376119 371120 367119 361119 356117 351113 347113
      345116 348122 352126 364131 369131 374134 377139 380143
      384147 387153 387157 384159 380162 381167 383173 385179
      390183 394178 397172 400166 403161 413155
 0.25 388065 384063 379065 377064 371062 369065 373068 375071
      376078 377081 379078 381072 383069 387066 388065
 0.25 367052 367050 367049 365048 363048 361048 360048 359049
      359051 359052 361053 363053 365053 367052 367052
 0.50 440031 439007 438985 437973 436962 434952 432942 422904
      416885 411868 407859 405857 401857 397863 394862 391858
      387853 385850 381848 375849 369854 366863 361870 357875
      354877 351879 349878 343875 340873 335872 333876 334881
      337889 337895 335898 329902 321905 317905 315901 312895
      309892 306893 304896 302899 301908 299920 297926 290942
      287950 286954 285960 287968 288973 290976 296976 299973
      304968 311966 319962 331956 344947 347945 351944 357949
      361954 371956 377956 384954 387955 388959 387964 385968
      380975 377983 376986 378989 384995 389000 392006 397015
      400023 403030 408038 412043 416051 420057 426061 429059
      432055 435047 438039 440031
 0.50 392805 392803 390800 387801 385803 383805 381807 379809
      379814 381817 383818 386818 388817 390815 391812 392808
      392805
 0.50 364126 365124 365122 363121 361121 359121 357121 356122
      357124 358125 359125 361125 362126 364126 364126
 0.50 355122 354120 353119 352119 353122 354122 355122
 1.00 433023 435014 435004 434987 431973 427959 416938 412921
      410915 407919 401923 396925 394927 395931 399933 408940
      411945 412949 408964 407968 405970 400972 392981 391985
      394991 398003 404012 410024 413029 417033 423036 428034
      432029 433023
 1.00 392886 391881 390876 385870 382870 379872 375879 374882
      371882 368880 365882 363889 361892 358896 350899 344902
      339908 333907 327912 319910 315910 312911 311903 309898
      307896 305898 304902 302911 302922 299931 298940 294946
      292949 292954 294956 298956 307958 309960 314962 321958
      333951 339946 345941 353929 363918 369914 371911 372905
      383897 389891 392886
 1.50 429013 430005 430997 428983 426976 424973 421967 418966
      419972 419978 412980 406982 403986 402992 403998 408007
      415015 418019 423021 427018 429013
 1.50 338926 338919 336916 333914 330915 322919 319920 319917
      319913 314912 310914 307914 308909 306906 304908 305911
      304920 302930 300934 300939 299949 300952 303954 312956
      317957 319956 327952 334947 336945 336940 332933 338926
 2.00 329926 327922 323923 315926 310928 305933 302936 302941
      301946 303951 310953 313954 317954 320953 322949 325941
      325938 323935 326930 329926
 3.00 318943 317942 317941 316940 314940 313939 313937 312936
      310937 308938 308939 307941 306941 305943 306945 307946
      308947 309947 310948 312949 314949 316947 317945 318943

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 505680 504678 503677 501677 500678 498679 497680 498681
      499682 500683 502683 503682 505681 505680
 0.01 498659 497654 496652 494648 492646 490644 487647 485648
      484651 483654 482659 482664 484666 488668 490668 493667
      494666 497662 498659
 0.01 468722 466705 466701 465698 463694 459692 455692 450691
      444693 439694 435693 428691 425688 423684 418675 410659
      406658 401659 394665 382659 380656 375657 370659 368662
      371666 372674 373680 372686 371697 370703 368709 362715
      361725 359734 357737 356742 358747 359753 357764 353772
      347778 345780 341779 339780 337784 337788 333790 328792
      324794 293815 288816 284818 282822 284826 289825 292824
      294826 295831 297834 302838 303849 304855 307858 308862
      308866 305874 300876 297878 292885 287893 282900 277907
      273915 268918 262919 258926 257929 258934 261941 264950
      267956 274960 275962 274965 273970 270978 267980 271984
      272987 273993 275997 278000 281003 278006 275007 272005
      267009 269013 272015 274020 277024 283028 292030 297030
      300032 304035 307039 320048 329053 332055 334057 332061
      329068 327072 326077 325081 327083 329092 329097 330101
      328103 324110 322113 325115 327118 330118 332121 334126
      334131 332134 327141 343139 347142 349142 357141 365139
      371139 374142 373147 370151 368154 365152 361152 359154
      354153 354158 352163 351169 351174 355183 360187 361193
      366199 374204 375207 381209 384207 385205 378158 382156
      385152 386146 385141 385136 388135 391137 391140 393145
      394150 397154 401156 406157 414155 416152 418148 417139
      418134 421132 425131 427127 432120 440115 446109 450107
      455108 456105 455100 454095 451090 449087 448081 448068
      442057 440049 440046 441043 443040 444034 442031 441028
      441023 443018 446009 447993 448989 448981 448968 447954
      448941 449931 448920 445864 447852 446845 447839 448816
      449812 449805 449798 452796 460783 464775 466770 466764
      466737 468722
 0.01 426103 420093 421083 423081 423077 420071 415067 408067
      407070 406074 400084 398090 396094 396099 398106 397110
      396117 397122 396127 398130 405131 416129 419123 421117
      423107 426103
 0.01 417099 415097 413094 412094 410094 407096 406098 404100
      405102 407105 409106 411105 413104 415101 417099
 0.01 403063 402060 400059 399060 399062 400064 402064 403063
 0.01 399970 400964 398959 396956 396951 396946 395940 390940
      387938 376929 373928 371930 364932 358938 352941 345941
      339939 336939 332941 328946 323950 323956 321962 321968
      321971 319974 308982 303989 308993 311999 314002 318003
      328003 333003 336001 342997 346993 354991 360987 366983
      369987 382995 385999 389006 394012 394003 393993 394983
      399970
 0.01 313131 311128 309128 307130 309132 311132 313131 313131
 0.01 301861 301859 300859 298859 300861 301861
 0.25 449755 449747 447742 441735 436728 432727 428729 421730
      412728 409726 406722 405717 403713 399710 397705 395701
      392700 389701 382707 376712 371719 368726 367732 370736
      371740 370745 367754 365759 365765 363775 361779 358783
      349796 342800 338803 335806 331814 329819 328825 333831
      338838 340842 339846 338855 336860 333863 330866 326868
      320869 317871 311880 306885 304889 302894 299901 294908
      289915 285923 277926 270926 266929 266932 268935 276939
      278942 279948 281950 285952 290953 293956 299961 305961
      309959 314950 317942 319939 323937 344912 357897 368887
      372888 374891 378899 380903 383902 388895 391889 393885
      399877 403871 408863 413862 417862 419865 421870 426870
      428867 429854 430848 431842 431834 429825 429820 429813
      431802 432791 437785 443779 447770 449755
 0.25 436988 437982 437978 435971 428961 425956 421953 410952
      407959 406966 407973 407980 405988 405993 406002 410005
      415004 420002 431999 435994 436988
 0.25 386088 388080 386075 384063 384059 387054 387049 383045
      369034 364034 361037 356044 353050 353057 354061 355065
      353067 346073 344078 343085 344093 344098 344104 342109
      348129 352131 358133 361131 364128 367122 367115 373109
      377104 380101 384092 386088
 0.50 431769 431764 428760 426757 422754 417752 413746 409740
      403738 400736 399732 396723 391717 388715 382717 377721
      377730 377740 376747 373754 371758 370763 348820 349825
      351826 358821 362822 366821 369822 368826 367834 365841
      352845 351854 344859 340865 336870 330874 323875 319877
      317879 312884 297910 292915 290922 288929 287934 288939
      290943 293944 296943 298946 300948 304949 310945 314939
      318935 323930 328924 337912 341905 344899 348895 354890
      363881 366876 367873 370869 373868 378864 381855 383852
      385852 388849 390846 396830 401825 403822 406818 406809
      408806 411804 419803 421799 422796 427779 431769
 0.50 421837 421834 421832 421830 420829 419828 417828 416830
      415832 415833 415835 416836 416837 418839 419841 421839
      421838 421837
 0.50 383083 383079 382076 381074 380071 378069 375067 373066
      371068 371070 369075 368079 370083 372084 375086 377087
      380088 382085 383083
 0.50 372055 373053 372050 370049 369049 367050 366050 365050
      363051 362052 361052 359054 361055 363055 365055 366056
      368056 370056 372055 372055
 0.50 363101 363100 363099 361097 360097 358097 358098 357100
      358101 358102 359104 361104 362103 363102 363101
 1.00 391817 392812 392808 390805 387804 384806 383809 383813
      384818 384822 385825 387824 389822 390819 391817
 1.00 383763 384761 383759 382758 380757 379759 378760 378762
      379764 379765 381765 383764 383763
 1.00 367802 365801 363801 361802 360803 358805 357806 356807
      356808 355810 355812 355813 357814 359814 360812 361812
      362810 362809 364807 365805 366804 367802 367802
 1.00 350866 349864 348863 346864 345864 344865 343866 344869
      346869 348869 349868 350866 350866
 1.00 337902 338896 338892 336884 333882 329882 322883 317886
      314892 310897 306903 300914 297921 298926 301934 305939
      310935 314930 320926 324922 331911 337902
 1.50 334902 335898 334894 332889 326888 323888 320889 315898
      312902 309905 304914 303919 303924 304932 307933 314924
      318922 322919 326911 333903 334902
 2.00 331895 329893 326892 322891 320893 317899 313906 308911
      306918 307920 312920 319918 322913 326906 331900 331895
 3.00 321902 321900 320900 320902 320904 321902

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 440631 447636 451638 455640 460639 464639 471638 474641
      475647 474652 472662 476666 478670 485673 491681 499685
      505689 506691 507696 508704 508709 506714 500723 496730
      494733 489734 484735 481736 479739 476751 478755 477760
      476765 472768 467769 464770 463775 458776 456773 454767
      452763 448761 446762 445766 444768 441767 438768 437770
      434775 430782 429792 427805 425817 422827 420832 420839
      419845 419849 420852 422855 424861 424867 422872 416882
      410887 404883 389877 380873 375871 373869 372857 371852
      368856 368862 366868 362877 364887 365893 366900 363911
      360921 363932 368942 372950 377956 385951 389952 391949
      395949 398947 398945 401944 401948 404951 405956 406964
      407968 408976 411978 414980 415984 408998 406001 405005
      406009 408020 409026 409031 410035 410040 411047 411052
      410057 409072 407082 409091 412094 413099 412110 406115
      402125 394128 390130 386132 387137 390141 400143 402144
      402146 399152 398157 395162 392166 387169 377167 374164
      374157 372148 372141 371137 363139 362142 357143 352141
      348139 345136 342131 342120 339111 337105 337101 333091
      333086 334080 331073 329068 332066 337065 343067 348069
      351069 353066 354064 354061 350059 347056 342055 338056
      334056 332053 332047 334043 330041 324041 320042 311045
      305045 301043 295042 293039 289036 286039 282045 278044
      275042 271032 270026 266025 257025 254020 254016 253012
      249010 241006 234002 232999 232994 231989 233985 236982
      239981 246973 253970 257967 258963 259957 257954 255949
      258946 262937 265934 270932 274931 280930 284927 286922
      291914 292909 291904 289894 289889 291886 294884 296881
      304867 305864 304857 303852 300847 284817 282817 279815
      275812 269805 274803 281802 287808 293812 304810 309809
      313807 317805 317803 315802 313805 311804 307799 305797
      304791 309784 312783 314781 315777 316770 319767 323764
      327762 328758 331748 342735
 0.01 342735 344730 346727 349724 352720 353715 354710 355706
      355701 355694 355690 355683 356678 358675 360670 362667
      364663
 0.01 498662 496655 496652 495644 492643 488644 485646 482652
      483656 482661 484664 486667 490668 495666 497663 498662
 0.01 473036 472031 474026 474023 471021 466021 463020 459020
      456025 452027 452031 454034 457037 460040 465040 469041
      470038 473036
 0.01 402097 399095 398093 394092 393090 390091 389093 386095
      385097 383101 384105 386106 389108 391106 393105 396103
      398101 400099 402097
 0.01 389201 389199 388196 386194 384195 384196 382197 382200
      383202 385203 387203 389201
 0.01 407912 405910 403910 401910 399910 398913 396913 394913
      392915 394917 396920 398920 400920 401917 403917 405915
      407912
 0.01 377194 378188 377182 372179 371176 373175 372168 367161
      360162 354166 353173 360179 362186 367191 368194 372196
      375196 377194
 0.01 369178 367178 365178 367178 369178 369178
 0.01 377110 375107 373106 372107 371107 370109 370111 369113
      369115 368117 367119 368121 370120 371118 371116 369115
      371115 372113 373113 374111 375109 377110 377110
 0.25 421637 424641 429643 436646 440648 442653 442662 444669
      456683 463690 470693 474696 477702 476707 474713 470721
      467726 463730 449741 442747 435755 432759 427761 419766
      415769 415775 413779 410781 408780 405777 401780 395784
      387780 384777 380775 377778 372780 364780 359781 356779
      352775 348774 339771 337764 338754 340749 343746 348743
      351738 355730 360723 364714 368705 370693 370682 372670
      372662 375655
 0.25 400807 400800 398795 395793 389794 386795 383798 381798
      378802 373810 367815 367820 369823 374823 379821 386815
      391810 396807 398807 400807
 0.25 350760 348760 346760 346761 348762 350761 350760
 0.25 353974 355970 354966 352960 352948 354939 355930 354923
      352909 348900 344892 343886 343877 344853 341851 338853
      334855 328859 322867 317875 304888 300898 299905 297916
      293927 288936 282942 277950 276955 274962 271973 265979
      262982 261984 262988 264994 264996 263004 265009 267013
      271015 280018 288023 308030 317031 328033 336027 342020
      347011 348006 348998 348990 349983 351977 353974
 0.25 313983 312981 311981 310982 308983 310985 312985 313983
 0.25 306000 306999 305998 304998 302998 301000 302000 304001
      306001 306000
 0.25 281999 281997 281995 281993 280992 279992 277992 276993
      276995 276997 277998 278999 280000 281999
 0.25 256002 256998 255995 254992 251990 250989 248990 246993
      244996 244998 245000 247002 249003 252004 253004 256002
 0.50 407641 413647 417651 424651 432651 441687 442708 441716
      437718 434717 431716 428713 425711 423710 417713 414716
      412720 408726 404734 400749 397757 393763 392766 389768
      381767 378769 376772 373774 370775 364773 360772 360769
      364753 366746 365737 363732 364727 366719 372706 373696
      373688 374679 375669 383648
 0.50 438729 438726 437725 435726 434727 434729 434730 434732
      436731 437729 438729
 0.50 432742 433740 433737 431735 429736 428737 427738 426740
      426741 425743 427745 428748 429750 431748 431747 432745
      432744 432742
 0.50 426732 426729 425728 423727 421727 420728 419730 420733
      422733 424732 425732 426732
 0.50 425744 424741 423741 422742 421743 421744 422745 424746
      425744
 0.50 347969 346963 343960 339963 337963 336967 335973 333975
      330975 326977 323979 315998 313002 309006 305008 300006
      295004 289002 285004 281007 280011 283016 287018 292018
      303022 308021 311017 316018 320020 323024 326029 330029
      334025 339017 342013 343006 340993 341988 342982 346971
      347969
 0.50 345939 346933 345928 343921 342914 339906 334893 336878
      336867 333863 330866 326872 320885 316890 312889 309891
      300918 296933 290945 287949 283956 277966 276971 276976
      276980 279981 283983 290981 298979 299973 303972 310969
      315966 321964 325960 332958 336952 339947 343943 345939
 0.50 301989 301987 301985 299985 298987 298989 299990 301990
      301989
 1.00 433691 433689 432687 432684 431683 431682 429681 428682
      427683 427686 427687 426688 427690 427693 429695 431694
      432691 433691
 1.00 418671 417665 415661 409656 395652 393647 389648 387656
      382663 379670 378691 377701 375710 373719 374724 378725
      381725 383722 388716 393709 395705 397705 400703 402699
      404689 415679 418671
 1.00 338941 339935 338931 335924 331911 329908 325908 319910
      312913 310914 309918 312924 310929 303939 299944 296950
      295955 295959 296962 299964 304963 306962 310957 317954
      323953 329950 334946 338941
 1.00 295012 296010 295008 294008 293007 291006 289007 287007
      287008 285010 286012 287012 289013 291014 293013 294012
      295012
 1.50 410666 409662 406660 401661 396661 392660 389662 385666
      382672 383681 383688 380700 378707 377714 379717 382716
      385711 390700 393687 396682 400676 409669 410666
 1.50 334936 333930 330925 329921 326920 323920 321924 319929
      316935 313939 310945 312948 316949 322947 327944 332941
      334936
 2.00 393676 393673 394671 393669 392667 391666 389667 389668
      388669 387670 387673 387675 387677 388679 388680 390680
      391679 392678 393676 393676


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 291448
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 15Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE HYI 15 E DTO 20 SE OUN 20 E UNO 40 S PAH 50 E MKL
10 NNE TUP 10 SSW MLU 20 N CWF 15 ESE BYY 10 ENE HYI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GVT 25 NE ADH 25 NW BVX 20 NNE NQA 20 SSE OLV 25 NW GLH
40 S ELD 20 ENE JAS LVJ 30 NW 5R5 25 NNE 62H GVT.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S SGT 20 W M89 15 SSE PRX 25 SSE MLC 15 NNW SRC 30 NE SGT
10 S SGT.


1500 UTC UPDATE...

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM CONEST)...HAVE
INTRODUCED A HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTH TX EAST INTO CENTRAL AR. THE LATEST GOES-14 SRSO
IR LOOPS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS (-70C OR
LOWER) WITHIN A ROBUST MCS ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK. PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IN
THE GENESIS REGION (MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG) ARE ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIALLY ROBUST 1-3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES...UP TO 2-2.5 INCHES AN
HOUR. PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM-CONEST...LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH RISK AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY.

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

BROAD SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING UPPER TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN
TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES OVER
EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW MS
AND WESTERN TN.  THE HI RES ARW---NSSL WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO
MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
WERE FAVORED FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION.   IN AREAS OF TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP
TOTAL OF 2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290926
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
525 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND BASED ON
LATEST HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS.  PRECIP TOTALS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST OK...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR INTO WESTERN TN.
ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE FINAL DAY 1 ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAX
PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP
AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.


DAYS 2/3...

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SOUTHERN MEMBER OF A REX BLOCK MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION, DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  STARTED
OUT WITH AN 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED
CONTINUITY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY HELPS LEAD
TO A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH DROPS
SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  WENT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ONLY NEAR 1-1.25", WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD POOL TO
SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE AREA MORE SOUTHWARD.  THE 00Z GUIDANCE HELD
SERVE FOR THE MOST PART, SO FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.


CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW, STARTED WITH 18Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF CONTINUITY THEN MADE INCREMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
00Z GUIDANCE -- THE QPF PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST MOST RESEMBLES A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION.  THIS KEPT REASONABLE
CONTINUITY AND TIGHTENED UP THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN A TAD.  A
PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH SLOWLY DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND RELATED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS.  GOOD INFLOW, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND
POTENTIALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF WV.  AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE
RLX/CHARLESTON WV OFFICE, DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 2 (SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING), HOLDING OFF ON THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 (SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING) UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME AND SEE IF THE GUIDANCE CAN
RETAIN CONSISTENCY QPF-WISE IN THIS REGION LATER TODAY.


NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE 00Z SPCWRF AND WRF4NSSL KEEP AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE GOING
FROM THE MORNING OF APRIL 30 ONWARD WITHIN A DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FOLLOWED
THEIR LEAD WHICH WAS WELL REFLECTED WITHIN 29/00Z WPC CONTINUITY
THOUGH THE PROGRESSION WAS SPED UP A TAD PER RECENT GUIDANCE.  THE
06Z WPC QPF SOLUTION STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE 28/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
REFORECAST FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING (DAY 2).  THE
ORIENTATION/STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE SOUTH IN 21Z
SREF MEAN CAPE FIELDS ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
SHOULD EASILY KEEP THE LINE ACTIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING/MAY 1.
AFTER THAT THE INFLOW WEAKENS, WHICH ALLOWS THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER.  USED THE 9C 700 HPA ISOTHERM AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD (PROXY FOR THE MID-LEVEL
CAP THIS TIME OF THE YEAR).  STILL, SINCE WE`RE DEALING WITH A
POTENTIALLY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREA, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO ITS TIMING -- IT COULD MOVE FASTER PER
12Z/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LINE, WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH
THE GULF COAST FORECAST OFFICES.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/ROTH

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537180 538174 534169 529162 524157 499139 494136
      491133 483126 476121 470119 467119 465117 459112 456102
      455097 452094 450092 445091 441089 438087 437084 436078
      437074 439072 445075 445067 443065 445044 447032 445024
      443013 443006 442002 439977 437964 434953 431940 428930
      426919 422906 417887 414879 411872 405853 401843 396832
      393829 389827 378827 370830 364835 355848 352852 349855
      339859 332862 321863 317866 315860 313852 312847 311844
      309836 306825 305818 302815 296809 293807 288807 269804
      265804 259804 256806 254810 255814 259818 266823 272827
      280830 285831 287835 288839 290843 295857 299864 302867
      303872 307894 309900 309907 310913 306917 299923 292929
      290931 289939 282944 276949 271955 270959 272962 277968
      279974 278982 275989 275993 277997 279000 282002 291006
      303007 311003 313001 316002 320005 325010 343020 349037
      351054 348060 346064 347068 350073 347075 338074 335078
      334083 335094 335105 336109 339111 347116 354122 363123
      361120 357117 352111 347104 344096 343091 347090 350091
      351093 352096 357101 363106 366108 371109 377111 379116
      376118 373122 371127 370133 366146 364151 365156 369163
      374166 376171 376177 375185 376194 381200 384203 387203
      390201 393203 395206 398206 400202 402196 408197 411200
      420204 428211 430214 429218 423226 426233 427238 429243
      436245 442245 448247 451250 457252 465254 473254 480253
      482251 482246 481236 478228 480226 485227 493233 500239
      502241 505238 509238 512239 515239 518236 520231 521223
      525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 470189 467185 465183 462185
      457189 452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205
      481203
 0.01 443176 442171 441166 435160 432156 430152 430145 431142
      432135 434133 437128 438125 437122 434122 432123 430127
      424134 418130 411125 405124 402125 398127 397130 399131
      405132 408134 413142 419147 421152 423157 424162 427165
      429168 430173 429178 426181 427184 430185 434184 438184
      440182 443176
 0.01 443863 443858 442856 441849 439845 438839 434825 433811
      431807 431803 430795 432783 432778 432769 431760 432754
      431747 428740 424732 419721 414712 403694 397685 388682
      384680 379680 369684 361692 358696 357700 355705 356710
      361720 363724 369727 367732 363735 361736 360740 361745
      361749 363752 364755 370765 372769 375772 379777 381782
      382786 383789 384793 387804 390810 393812 398814 400814
      400811 400808 402807 405806 408808 412818 414835 415851
      419860 423869 435869 440866 443863
 0.25 529186 528182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438025 437016 434001 429982 425968 420953 415941
      410926 405908 401890 399884 396879 392872 387866 382862
      376861 369863 363863 352866 337872 333877 331883 331894
      330903 328909 324913 314922 304931 295941 287948 283954
      283962 286978 289985 295988 302989 308988 321983 328980
      335979 341984 345988 347991 346994 345001 347005 349007
      355011 361015 363021 364040 365049 368054 376055 378058
      379063 383070 385071 389071 398072 404070 409069 413065
      426061 429053 434047 437042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433012 432004 428991 423975 418963 414957 411953
      402947 395935 385929 384923 385918 386911 386904 385894
      385890 383888 379881 375877 370873 365871 357870 346874
      341877 336883 334889 334898 332906 330911 322918 303935
      300941 296944 288951 286957 287966 292979 295985 300986
      310983 334973 342972 350973 353976 353983 352990 353998
      355002 358004 363006 368012 370016 370024 369031 369038
      374044 379048 386049 400052 412051 418050 423047 430035
      433027 433021
 1.00 427020 426007 426998 424992 421981 418976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 374969
      371974 368978 364981 362985 363990 366994 369999 372001
      376005 379010 380016 381023 380033 385036 390038 394039
      401040 411039 415039 416037 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 373900 372892 370886 366882 361878 356877 350879 346882
      342886 337900 335907 332913 323920 314928 306936 303943
      299947 292954 291959 292964 295968 299973 303975 309975
      315975 327972 339967 349962 355958 359954 365944 368937
      369929 370913 373900
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 414978 413979 410984 406993 403995
      401995 396995 395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019
      409018 412020 415017 420008 422999
 1.50 366900 365894 363889 360884 354882 349884 345888 342899
      339906 337909 330917 321923 313930 310935 309941 306945
      302949 298954 296958 296962 300966 304969 310969 316971
      319971 339963 345955 351954 354949 363927 364912 366900
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 361905 360899 358893 356888 351888 341906 335913 332918
      328921 320926 313932 312935 312938 312942 310947 307951
      302953 300957 301963 306966 313965 317964 321961 323956
      326950 329948 333945 339943 343947 348948 352947 355941
      358930 359924 358918 361905
 3.00 352921 353915 352908 348907 344909 339915 334922 332926
      328930 321934 318943 319949 324947 331943 336936 341934
      344932 348925 352921

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 537196 535182 534177 533173 531171 524162 518155 504142
      491132 482126 477125 473122 475110 475104 474098 469081
      466071 463060 461055 458050 455037 452024 450018 450011
      448956 446944 445930 443916 441904 436854 436846 437840
      441827 446802 448780 447765 449752 452742 454738 455733
      457729 454723 451720 447719 440719 431720 421723 416722
      413720 398705 395703 389702 384702 379702 368714 368720
      370724 371728 370734 369744 366752 361759 359762 354763
      345778 341781 337780 332780 330785 332790 338789 340787
      341790 338795 329800 323801 319804 300810 296812 292811
      283810 275813 272816 272820 282830 291833 297837 301847
      303851 307853 312854 316858 319862 320865 320870 317874
      314874 311871 307868 301863 296864 293867 298887 300889
      299893 291899 278910 271914 266919 260923 258927 257931
      266951 266965 264970 261974 259978 259984 262990 266997
      267004 269008 275014 281018 289021 299021 303019 302017
      298010 291005 288001 283999 279996 284993 291986 300981
      307975 319965 334956 343952 350948 359943 366938 369935
      375936 380941 384947 386952 386956 387964 388970 388979
      389985 388000 387006 386012 389033 388037 385037 379037
      367035 358037 351040 345045 338049 334049 330052 327057
      332065 335069 336071 334073 330077 330079 329083 329091
      326096 324103 325108 328111 339126 343135 348141 352149
      356153 356160 370170 372174 371179 362179 356182 347180
      344170 342167 337166
 0.01 337166 331164 327163 326167 333176 335181 338188 344197
      347201 350193 352191 356189 363193 383207 395214 400216
      402212 401208 394182 396177 398175 401173 403174 406176
      409169 416180 419185 425187 428187 430183 425182 422176
      422171 422164 424165 425168 427170 429172 432166 426162
      422156 425136 429131 433127 437123 440125 441130 438134
      434139 433150 434157 435162 437164 444172 447189 450190
      453189 457185 463178 459177 456174 456168 458166 460164
      463165 467170 473172 479176 487185 511197 517201 520205
      525210 528209 529207 537196
 0.01 509807 508801 507795 502790 496784 492777 490774 485775
      480782 478791 475800 469816 466819 465824 464829 464834
      466839 466844 470844 473848 478852 485851 488851 493853
      497850 498847 499841 499835 499828 498822 497817 499814
      503813 506815 509810 509807
 0.01 492736 490718 487714 483712 481704 477703 475709 476712
      477717 476720 473725 471733 474738 475742 473749 469753
      472754 476750 480748 482746 483743 488741 491737 492736
 0.01 415137 416132 415130 413127 411126 407128 402126 397124
      393126 389130 388134 390136 395135 403136 407139 413139
      415137
 0.01 420095 420085 418080 414078 411079 407082 402085 398090
      395095 394098 392098 388098 385099 381103 379106 379110
      384110 388111 393109 395107 396103 399102 402103 404099
      405093 407090 409092 412096 414104 417102 420095
 0.01 287858 286856 285856 285858 286860 287858 287858
 0.01 246809 246807 245806 244805 243803 241805 241807 242809
      243810 245809 246809
 0.25 451100 450095 448093 444089 440086 435081 433088 427089
      429096 432102 432109 438110 442108 447106 451100
 0.25 450078 448071 445066 441060 440055 440046 441040 443033
      443024 443993 442977 441964 438947 436933 430907 427891
      425877 423851 425835 426819 427805 427791 426783 424778
      421772 417768 413767 410764 405757 398745 395741 390738
      385737 382741 379751 376762 371772 368775 363777 360776
      357779 347802 342810 337819 331828 328833 330841 331852
      331863 330870 326875 322880 318883 303895 295901 288908
      274919 270921 266927 267932 270937 276943 278948 279956
      282965 285970 290970 298967 305960 320945 334931 340925
      348920 353918 360916 368917 374918 380920 387928 392939
      395952 395958 395965 395973 396981 398993 400005 404019
      407031 411042 414054 419064 422067 428070 433078 435080
      437078 439076 450078
 0.25 427122 429120 427118 427117 426117 425117 424119 424122
      425123 427123 427122
 0.25 417118 417116 415113 413113 410112 409110 409106 407104
      406107 405109 403112 400113 402116 404118 406119 409120
      413120 416120 417118
 0.25 411155 412150 410149 405145 401141 397142 391144 389145
      387148 390153 395158 397164 400162 405158 409156 411155
 0.25 397115 394113 390113 385113 376116 372116 371113 370106
      368095 367087 365082 361079 356078 353082 355088 358098
      361105 364108 365111 360112 352106 345098 340095 338095
      337099 337106 338113 342124 345129 349132 359138 370142
      375139 378135 385127 397115
 0.25 385166 385163 383162 382161 380162 380165 381166 383167
      385166
 0.25 384086 386077 386070 385064 386058 387054 387051 383048
      372046 366045 362045 356048 354053 355057 359059 364069
      367072 369077 373088 376093 378094 382090 384086
 0.25 366155 366154 366153 365152 363152 361153 360154 360156
      361158 362159 364159 366157 366156 366155
 0.50 443099 445096 444094 443092 442091 442090 440089 439088
      438088 437087 436088 435090 435093 435095 436097 436098
      437100 439100 440100 441100 443099 443099
 0.50 439007 439991 438973 437961 434949 424904 420890 417877
      417865 416851 417839 418824 420804 421795 421789 418784
      415783 411787 409791 407793 404794 400790 394752 389750
      385754 381766 372781 359796 356805 353813 351819 349824
      344834 341845 341858 337866 336872 333877 327882 320886
      310892 302898 290911 283918 275922 271925 270927 271930
      276937 286956 288960 292962 297960 301956 315945 326932
      353904 359899 363898 365903 369906 374908 382909 386911
      391915 394921 398924 402932 405943 407950 406957 406972
      405984 405996 408009 412021 415032 418043 420053 423058
      426059 427057 430046 434037 437030 438021 439007
 0.50 399857 399841 398825 397818 395817 392822 386823 380830
      371835 368840 369844 373843 377844 382847 385850 389861
      392866 396867 398863 399857
 0.50 380080 381078 381076 380074 380072 379071 378071 376070
      375069 373071 373073 374075 374077 374078 375080 375081
      377082 379081 380080
 0.50 370127 369122 365119 360118 356116 353114 347112 345113
      344116 346121 348125 351128 355131 358132 363132 365130
      369127 370127
 0.50 375053 375051 374050 372049 370049 369048 367048 365048
      363048 361048 360049 358051 358053 358054 359055 361054
      363054 365054 367053 368053 370053 372053 374053 375053
 0.50 363094 362092 362091 361089 360088 359089 359091 359094
      360095 362095 363094
 1.00 434007 434990 433976 430964 426953 424951 421950 417952
      414958 413963 415977 416991 418006 423015 426018 430017
      433012 434007
 1.00 403852 407879 416913 410872 404842 403852
 1.00 391808 391805 391803 390802 388802 387803 385804 383806
      383807 382809 382811 382812 384813 386813 387812 389810
      391808 391808
 1.00 394897 393890 392883 389877 386871 382866 380864 377866
      375873 375880 376886 376891 378895 383897 389898 392899
      394897
 1.00 362125 362123 361122 359121 357121 356121 354122 355124
      357126 359127 360127 362125
 1.00 344899 341890 339886 334886 318892 309896 303901 297907
      292914 285931 284936 285940 287943 290946 294949 298951
      305947 312941 317935 328922 339909 344899
 1.50 428987 428983 427980 427975 426973 423971 421970 421971
      422975 422980 423982 424987 425989 427990 428987
 1.50 388890 388888 388886 387884 386881 384879 383881 382882
      381884 380886 381888 383891 385892 387891 388890
 1.50 337904 333898 328896 325895 321896 315898 308900 304904
      299908 295914 292929 292935 296941 297944 301945 307942
      315932 323923 331913 337904
 2.00 330911 327907 322905 322902 317902 311903 306905 302907
      299912 298917 297923 297930 298935 301940 303941 310935
      317927 324919 330912 330911

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 418015 413007 410998 407989 403988 400986 394981 393983
      388983 373987 369989 364989 355989 349983 343976 338972
      334967 330960 328952 323932 317926 312922 310920 311917
      313915 319908 323903 328899 341890 357884 363884 366885
      375885 378886 381888 385893 388897 390902 394909 396917
      400927 403934 405943 408951 410961 414970 416973 417970
      421964 423960 424954 423952 423946 423932 423921 422915
      421912 416864 422825 423815 426807 430807 434809 439804
      443799 447794 451775 454754 459746 461741 462737 470722
      474715 481716 488719 492721 493720 491706 492701 492693
      491687 492682 493676 494672 494666 496663 498657 503655
      507651 510645 502626 496628 493632 491637 487642 476656
      470663 467668 464672 452687 444693 441694 439693 437689
      435685 434679 435668 435656 430650 427647 422648 418649
      414652 398666 386679 379688 375698 371705 364711 353723
      349727 346732 342739 333754 326768 321778 317782 312783
      305788 299794 292801 290801 288804 290808 295809 301809
      307809 305813 303816 303822 301826 302831 304834 307835
      312835 316835 320836 326837 328840 330842 328844 325848
      318855 304868 293881 286889 281897 277905 273912 268918
      264921 263925 262930 265934 270942 273950 273960 268962
      266964 262972 266994 262994 259992 253988 246983 237987
      233989 231992 232997 233000 235001 242005 251008 255010
      256013 257016 261020 263023 267025 273030 275032 279033
      285033 288035 291039 295043 299046 304047 313050 322053
      329058 331062 331069 331072 329078 328085 330089 330095
      329098 328104 329109 335128 339129 343133 348139 354144
      362144 363146 362148 360148 355150 359161 362163 366166
      368169 367173 359167 356176 356180 351179 347178 346171
      345167 342164 340161 335160 327163 326165 329166 333169
      338176 344184 347191 352191 353188 358190 363193 367196
      371199 378204 386210 401219 406219 409213 403207 397200
      391193 389189 390185 393184 398183 402186 403183 400176
      399173 399170 401166 407159 410152 408147 405144 405140
      397138 393138 390139 385136 383132 390126 393124 397123
      406127 411121 415119 417118 417114 413104 411099 411092
      410089 407085 406083 407080 409077 413075 419075 420080
      423084 424089 427094 430097 434100 443100 447099 450095
      437081 436078 438076 440075 442076 448081 454086 454083
      453078 442062 432047 428039 424032 421022 418015
 0.01 470155 471150 468148 465144 462131 458125 454122 454128
      451131 448124 446123 444125 440129 437138 436148 435157
      438163 444168 446170 448173 451180 454179 455174 461165
      470155 470155
 0.01 448192 449190 449187 448185 446184 445184 443186 441188
      439190 439192 439195 439197 441198 443196 445196 447194
      448192
 0.01 264774 263773 262772 261772 260772 258772 258773 256774
      256775 255776 254777 253779 255781 255783 257785 258785
      259783 260782 261781 261780 262778 263776 264774 264774
 0.25 476689 473684 469687 462694 445708 436713 431712 428708
      426702 425696 424684 424674 422666 419663 414664 405670
      399674 395677 388684 382691 373708 366717 361725 354734
      349742 345752 341762 340766 340773 341781 341786 342789
      347790 352788 355788 358790 357794 355799 350809 346818
      345829 341839 336847 333859 327866 319873 311878 302883
      294889 288896 284902 280907 279913 276923 276931 278935
      281941 283947 284960 285965 287969 291972 293972 295969
      299960 304950 306938 305935 302933 300928 304918 308911
      315902 326889 334881 344878 362868 400867 406813 408799
      410787 412783 415779 421774 426770 429765 434757 442751
      448741 467705 473696 476689
 0.25 403074 402071 399071 394073 390069 387070 384070 379060
      377057 382056 387053 387049 387046 384041 385037 387036
      391032 392024 395022 395020 395014 393007 390003 386003
      383003 378006 361014 355016 350015 346003 343999 339998
      336998 327003 323006 320007 317006 307000 303997 300997
      298998 289002 286008 283012 283016 283019 288021 304034
      313039 326042 337042 342043 346046 349052 352056 355061
      358066 360071 358075 354078 351082 351091 352097 358106
      360112 358116 356117 355122 359122 362120 363116 366113
      375107 384101 387098 390093 403074
 0.25 387201 386198 384197 383195 381194 379193 378192 378191
      376191 375189 375188 374188 374190 375191 376192 377194
      379195 380197 381197 382198 384200 385201 387201
 0.25 390116 389115 387115 385115 383116 381117 379119 378121
      377123 377126 379126 380125 382124 384122 385122 386120
      388118 390116
 0.50 448726 447725 447724 446722 445722 443722 442723 440724
      439726 438729 438731 440732 441733 443733 445732 446731
      447729 448727 448726
 0.50 419690 417681 416676 410674 406674 397679 390686 383694
      379705 368721 356739 354745 353751 355757 357759 360765
      362772 365773 368772 372769 376771 378776 379784 378789
      367808 361818 358826 355838 352843 349846 345849 343851
      342856 342860 344863 346862 347864 350862 354859 359857
      379851 386850 390847 393842 395837 396824 397812 397797
      397788 399782 400776 403771 408764 414755 417752 421747
      422741 420735 420729 421724 421715 419705 419690
 0.50 388091 385086 384083 384079 382072 379067 375063 371062
      369063 370070 370079 370086 371093 375098 379099 385095
      388091
 0.50 374053 373049 369048 365045 369042 370039 368030 367027
      363026 355029 352030 350033 353040 355044 355049 356054
      359055 367054 374053
 0.50 343013 342010 339011 334012 330018 325020 319017 314014
      307007 304005 300005 293006 290010 291017 298025 303029
      308032 319035 325035 330031 332027 334021 343013
 0.50 320887 321883 317882 311884 305885 300888 292895 285904
      282910 282916 281925 283933 287936 292934 296929 298924
      304914 310903 316894 320887
 0.50 302945 301942 299945 297946 296949 294952 293954 292958
      294960 296960 297956 298954 299951 301947 302945
 1.00 412694 411688 408683 405682 401683 394688 388694 383702
      380709 371725 366733 363742 365748 369750 373758 381757
      384758 386762 389765 393764 398757 403749 407741 410732
      411721 412697 412694
 1.00 386811 386806 383805 380807 378809 377812 376814 375817
      375820 377823 379824 381823 383820 384817 386813 386811
 1.00 380076 380074 379074 378072 377071 376070 375071 375073
      375075 376078 377080 379078 380076
 1.00 313026 313023 312020 311016 309013 305009 300010 297010
      294010 294013 295014 298017 300021 303024 307026 312026
      313026
 1.00 309894 309890 305889 299893 294897 289902 286910 286918
      286923 288925 294922 298916 301910 305903 308897 309894
 1.50 405710 404701 401697 399695 395695 391699 387703 384708
      379719 375731 375735 376739 379744 389751 390753 393753
      397749 401739 404731 405724 405710
 1.50 307017 306015 305013 304012 303013 302014 301015 302016
      302017 303019 305019 307017 307017
 1.50 306895 302893 298896 295899 293901 291906 290910 290914
      290917 293915 296912 299908 300905 302901 305897 306895
 2.00 399714 398710 396708 392710 391712 389715 388719 388721
      387725 387728 389730 391730 395729 396726 397724 398721
      398716 399714

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290926
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
525 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND BASED ON
LATEST HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS.  PRECIP TOTALS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST OK...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR INTO WESTERN TN.
ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE FOR THE FINAL DAY 1 ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAX
PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP
AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.


DAYS 2/3...

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SOUTHERN MEMBER OF A REX BLOCK MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION, DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  STARTED
OUT WITH AN 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED
CONTINUITY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY HELPS LEAD
TO A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH DROPS
SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  WENT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ONLY NEAR 1-1.25", WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD POOL TO
SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE AREA MORE SOUTHWARD.  THE 00Z GUIDANCE HELD
SERVE FOR THE MOST PART, SO FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.


CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW, STARTED WITH 18Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF CONTINUITY THEN MADE INCREMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
00Z GUIDANCE -- THE QPF PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST MOST RESEMBLES A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION.  THIS KEPT REASONABLE
CONTINUITY AND TIGHTENED UP THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN A TAD.  A
PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH SLOWLY DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND RELATED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS.  GOOD INFLOW, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND
POTENTIALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF WV.  AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE
RLX/CHARLESTON WV OFFICE, DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 2 (SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING), HOLDING OFF ON THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 (SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING) UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME AND SEE IF THE GUIDANCE CAN
RETAIN CONSISTENCY QPF-WISE IN THIS REGION LATER TODAY.


NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE 00Z SPCWRF AND WRF4NSSL KEEP AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE GOING
FROM THE MORNING OF APRIL 30 ONWARD WITHIN A DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FOLLOWED
THEIR LEAD WHICH WAS WELL REFLECTED WITHIN 29/00Z WPC CONTINUITY
THOUGH THE PROGRESSION WAS SPED UP A TAD PER RECENT GUIDANCE.  THE
06Z WPC QPF SOLUTION STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE 28/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
REFORECAST FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING (DAY 2).  THE
ORIENTATION/STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY POOL TO THE SOUTH IN 21Z
SREF MEAN CAPE FIELDS ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
SHOULD EASILY KEEP THE LINE ACTIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING/MAY 1.
AFTER THAT THE INFLOW WEAKENS, WHICH ALLOWS THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER.  USED THE 9C 700 HPA ISOTHERM AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD (PROXY FOR THE MID-LEVEL
CAP THIS TIME OF THE YEAR).  STILL, SINCE WE`RE DEALING WITH A
POTENTIALLY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREA, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO ITS TIMING -- IT COULD MOVE FASTER PER
12Z/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LINE, WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH
THE GULF COAST FORECAST OFFICES.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/ROTH

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537180 538174 534169 529162 524157 499139 494136
      491133 483126 476121 470119 467119 465117 459112 456102
      455097 452094 450092 445091 441089 438087 437084 436078
      437074 439072 445075 445067 443065 445044 447032 445024
      443013 443006 442002 439977 437964 434953 431940 428930
      426919 422906 417887 414879 411872 405853 401843 396832
      393829 389827 378827 370830 364835 355848 352852 349855
      339859 332862 321863 317866 315860 313852 312847 311844
      309836 306825 305818 302815 296809 293807 288807 269804
      265804 259804 256806 254810 255814 259818 266823 272827
      280830 285831 287835 288839 290843 295857 299864 302867
      303872 307894 309900 309907 310913 306917 299923 292929
      290931 289939 282944 276949 271955 270959 272962 277968
      279974 278982 275989 275993 277997 279000 282002 291006
      303007 311003 313001 316002 320005 325010 343020 349037
      351054 348060 346064 347068 350073 347075 338074 335078
      334083 335094 335105 336109 339111 347116 354122 363123
      361120 357117 352111 347104 344096 343091 347090 350091
      351093 352096 357101 363106 366108 371109 377111 379116
      376118 373122 371127 370133 366146 364151 365156 369163
      374166 376171 376177 375185 376194 381200 384203 387203
      390201 393203 395206 398206 400202 402196 408197 411200
      420204 428211 430214 429218 423226 426233 427238 429243
      436245 442245 448247 451250 457252 465254 473254 480253
      482251 482246 481236 478228 480226 485227 493233 500239
      502241 505238 509238 512239 515239 518236 520231 521223
      525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 470189 467185 465183 462185
      457189 452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205
      481203
 0.01 443176 442171 441166 435160 432156 430152 430145 431142
      432135 434133 437128 438125 437122 434122 432123 430127
      424134 418130 411125 405124 402125 398127 397130 399131
      405132 408134 413142 419147 421152 423157 424162 427165
      429168 430173 429178 426181 427184 430185 434184 438184
      440182 443176
 0.01 443863 443858 442856 441849 439845 438839 434825 433811
      431807 431803 430795 432783 432778 432769 431760 432754
      431747 428740 424732 419721 414712 403694 397685 388682
      384680 379680 369684 361692 358696 357700 355705 356710
      361720 363724 369727 367732 363735 361736 360740 361745
      361749 363752 364755 370765 372769 375772 379777 381782
      382786 383789 384793 387804 390810 393812 398814 400814
      400811 400808 402807 405806 408808 412818 414835 415851
      419860 423869 435869 440866 443863
 0.25 529186 528182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438025 437016 434001 429982 425968 420953 415941
      410926 405908 401890 399884 396879 392872 387866 382862
      376861 369863 363863 352866 337872 333877 331883 331894
      330903 328909 324913 314922 304931 295941 287948 283954
      283962 286978 289985 295988 302989 308988 321983 328980
      335979 341984 345988 347991 346994 345001 347005 349007
      355011 361015 363021 364040 365049 368054 376055 378058
      379063 383070 385071 389071 398072 404070 409069 413065
      426061 429053 434047 437042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433012 432004 428991 423975 418963 414957 411953
      402947 395935 385929 384923 385918 386911 386904 385894
      385890 383888 379881 375877 370873 365871 357870 346874
      341877 336883 334889 334898 332906 330911 322918 303935
      300941 296944 288951 286957 287966 292979 295985 300986
      310983 334973 342972 350973 353976 353983 352990 353998
      355002 358004 363006 368012 370016 370024 369031 369038
      374044 379048 386049 400052 412051 418050 423047 430035
      433027 433021
 1.00 427020 426007 426998 424992 421981 418976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 374969
      371974 368978 364981 362985 363990 366994 369999 372001
      376005 379010 380016 381023 380033 385036 390038 394039
      401040 411039 415039 416037 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 373900 372892 370886 366882 361878 356877 350879 346882
      342886 337900 335907 332913 323920 314928 306936 303943
      299947 292954 291959 292964 295968 299973 303975 309975
      315975 327972 339967 349962 355958 359954 365944 368937
      369929 370913 373900
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 414978 413979 410984 406993 403995
      401995 396995 395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019
      409018 412020 415017 420008 422999
 1.50 366900 365894 363889 360884 354882 349884 345888 342899
      339906 337909 330917 321923 313930 310935 309941 306945
      302949 298954 296958 296962 300966 304969 310969 316971
      319971 339963 345955 351954 354949 363927 364912 366900
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 361905 360899 358893 356888 351888 341906 335913 332918
      328921 320926 313932 312935 312938 312942 310947 307951
      302953 300957 301963 306966 313965 317964 321961 323956
      326950 329948 333945 339943 343947 348948 352947 355941
      358930 359924 358918 361905
 3.00 352921 353915 352908 348907 344909 339915 334922 332926
      328930 321934 318943 319949 324947 331943 336936 341934
      344932 348925 352921

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 537196 535182 534177 533173 531171 524162 518155 504142
      491132 482126 477125 473122 475110 475104 474098 469081
      466071 463060 461055 458050 455037 452024 450018 450011
      448956 446944 445930 443916 441904 436854 436846 437840
      441827 446802 448780 447765 449752 452742 454738 455733
      457729 454723 451720 447719 440719 431720 421723 416722
      413720 398705 395703 389702 384702 379702 368714 368720
      370724 371728 370734 369744 366752 361759 359762 354763
      345778 341781 337780 332780 330785 332790 338789 340787
      341790 338795 329800 323801 319804 300810 296812 292811
      283810 275813 272816 272820 282830 291833 297837 301847
      303851 307853 312854 316858 319862 320865 320870 317874
      314874 311871 307868 301863 296864 293867 298887 300889
      299893 291899 278910 271914 266919 260923 258927 257931
      266951 266965 264970 261974 259978 259984 262990 266997
      267004 269008 275014 281018 289021 299021 303019 302017
      298010 291005 288001 283999 279996 284993 291986 300981
      307975 319965 334956 343952 350948 359943 366938 369935
      375936 380941 384947 386952 386956 387964 388970 388979
      389985 388000 387006 386012 389033 388037 385037 379037
      367035 358037 351040 345045 338049 334049 330052 327057
      332065 335069 336071 334073 330077 330079 329083 329091
      326096 324103 325108 328111 339126 343135 348141 352149
      356153 356160 370170 372174 371179 362179 356182 347180
      344170 342167 337166
 0.01 337166 331164 327163 326167 333176 335181 338188 344197
      347201 350193 352191 356189 363193 383207 395214 400216
      402212 401208 394182 396177 398175 401173 403174 406176
      409169 416180 419185 425187 428187 430183 425182 422176
      422171 422164 424165 425168 427170 429172 432166 426162
      422156 425136 429131 433127 437123 440125 441130 438134
      434139 433150 434157 435162 437164 444172 447189 450190
      453189 457185 463178 459177 456174 456168 458166 460164
      463165 467170 473172 479176 487185 511197 517201 520205
      525210 528209 529207 537196
 0.01 509807 508801 507795 502790 496784 492777 490774 485775
      480782 478791 475800 469816 466819 465824 464829 464834
      466839 466844 470844 473848 478852 485851 488851 493853
      497850 498847 499841 499835 499828 498822 497817 499814
      503813 506815 509810 509807
 0.01 492736 490718 487714 483712 481704 477703 475709 476712
      477717 476720 473725 471733 474738 475742 473749 469753
      472754 476750 480748 482746 483743 488741 491737 492736
 0.01 415137 416132 415130 413127 411126 407128 402126 397124
      393126 389130 388134 390136 395135 403136 407139 413139
      415137
 0.01 420095 420085 418080 414078 411079 407082 402085 398090
      395095 394098 392098 388098 385099 381103 379106 379110
      384110 388111 393109 395107 396103 399102 402103 404099
      405093 407090 409092 412096 414104 417102 420095
 0.01 287858 286856 285856 285858 286860 287858 287858
 0.01 246809 246807 245806 244805 243803 241805 241807 242809
      243810 245809 246809
 0.25 451100 450095 448093 444089 440086 435081 433088 427089
      429096 432102 432109 438110 442108 447106 451100
 0.25 450078 448071 445066 441060 440055 440046 441040 443033
      443024 443993 442977 441964 438947 436933 430907 427891
      425877 423851 425835 426819 427805 427791 426783 424778
      421772 417768 413767 410764 405757 398745 395741 390738
      385737 382741 379751 376762 371772 368775 363777 360776
      357779 347802 342810 337819 331828 328833 330841 331852
      331863 330870 326875 322880 318883 303895 295901 288908
      274919 270921 266927 267932 270937 276943 278948 279956
      282965 285970 290970 298967 305960 320945 334931 340925
      348920 353918 360916 368917 374918 380920 387928 392939
      395952 395958 395965 395973 396981 398993 400005 404019
      407031 411042 414054 419064 422067 428070 433078 435080
      437078 439076 450078
 0.25 427122 429120 427118 427117 426117 425117 424119 424122
      425123 427123 427122
 0.25 417118 417116 415113 413113 410112 409110 409106 407104
      406107 405109 403112 400113 402116 404118 406119 409120
      413120 416120 417118
 0.25 411155 412150 410149 405145 401141 397142 391144 389145
      387148 390153 395158 397164 400162 405158 409156 411155
 0.25 397115 394113 390113 385113 376116 372116 371113 370106
      368095 367087 365082 361079 356078 353082 355088 358098
      361105 364108 365111 360112 352106 345098 340095 338095
      337099 337106 338113 342124 345129 349132 359138 370142
      375139 378135 385127 397115
 0.25 385166 385163 383162 382161 380162 380165 381166 383167
      385166
 0.25 384086 386077 386070 385064 386058 387054 387051 383048
      372046 366045 362045 356048 354053 355057 359059 364069
      367072 369077 373088 376093 378094 382090 384086
 0.25 366155 366154 366153 365152 363152 361153 360154 360156
      361158 362159 364159 366157 366156 366155
 0.50 443099 445096 444094 443092 442091 442090 440089 439088
      438088 437087 436088 435090 435093 435095 436097 436098
      437100 439100 440100 441100 443099 443099
 0.50 439007 439991 438973 437961 434949 424904 420890 417877
      417865 416851 417839 418824 420804 421795 421789 418784
      415783 411787 409791 407793 404794 400790 394752 389750
      385754 381766 372781 359796 356805 353813 351819 349824
      344834 341845 341858 337866 336872 333877 327882 320886
      310892 302898 290911 283918 275922 271925 270927 271930
      276937 286956 288960 292962 297960 301956 315945 326932
      353904 359899 363898 365903 369906 374908 382909 386911
      391915 394921 398924 402932 405943 407950 406957 406972
      405984 405996 408009 412021 415032 418043 420053 423058
      426059 427057 430046 434037 437030 438021 439007
 0.50 399857 399841 398825 397818 395817 392822 386823 380830
      371835 368840 369844 373843 377844 382847 385850 389861
      392866 396867 398863 399857
 0.50 380080 381078 381076 380074 380072 379071 378071 376070
      375069 373071 373073 374075 374077 374078 375080 375081
      377082 379081 380080
 0.50 370127 369122 365119 360118 356116 353114 347112 345113
      344116 346121 348125 351128 355131 358132 363132 365130
      369127 370127
 0.50 375053 375051 374050 372049 370049 369048 367048 365048
      363048 361048 360049 358051 358053 358054 359055 361054
      363054 365054 367053 368053 370053 372053 374053 375053
 0.50 363094 362092 362091 361089 360088 359089 359091 359094
      360095 362095 363094
 1.00 434007 434990 433976 430964 426953 424951 421950 417952
      414958 413963 415977 416991 418006 423015 426018 430017
      433012 434007
 1.00 403852 407879 416913 410872 404842 403852
 1.00 391808 391805 391803 390802 388802 387803 385804 383806
      383807 382809 382811 382812 384813 386813 387812 389810
      391808 391808
 1.00 394897 393890 392883 389877 386871 382866 380864 377866
      375873 375880 376886 376891 378895 383897 389898 392899
      394897
 1.00 362125 362123 361122 359121 357121 356121 354122 355124
      357126 359127 360127 362125
 1.00 344899 341890 339886 334886 318892 309896 303901 297907
      292914 285931 284936 285940 287943 290946 294949 298951
      305947 312941 317935 328922 339909 344899
 1.50 428987 428983 427980 427975 426973 423971 421970 421971
      422975 422980 423982 424987 425989 427990 428987
 1.50 388890 388888 388886 387884 386881 384879 383881 382882
      381884 380886 381888 383891 385892 387891 388890
 1.50 337904 333898 328896 325895 321896 315898 308900 304904
      299908 295914 292929 292935 296941 297944 301945 307942
      315932 323923 331913 337904
 2.00 330911 327907 322905 322902 317902 311903 306905 302907
      299912 298917 297923 297930 298935 301940 303941 310935
      317927 324919 330912 330911

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 418015 413007 410998 407989 403988 400986 394981 393983
      388983 373987 369989 364989 355989 349983 343976 338972
      334967 330960 328952 323932 317926 312922 310920 311917
      313915 319908 323903 328899 341890 357884 363884 366885
      375885 378886 381888 385893 388897 390902 394909 396917
      400927 403934 405943 408951 410961 414970 416973 417970
      421964 423960 424954 423952 423946 423932 423921 422915
      421912 416864 422825 423815 426807 430807 434809 439804
      443799 447794 451775 454754 459746 461741 462737 470722
      474715 481716 488719 492721 493720 491706 492701 492693
      491687 492682 493676 494672 494666 496663 498657 503655
      507651 510645 502626 496628 493632 491637 487642 476656
      470663 467668 464672 452687 444693 441694 439693 437689
      435685 434679 435668 435656 430650 427647 422648 418649
      414652 398666 386679 379688 375698 371705 364711 353723
      349727 346732 342739 333754 326768 321778 317782 312783
      305788 299794 292801 290801 288804 290808 295809 301809
      307809 305813 303816 303822 301826 302831 304834 307835
      312835 316835 320836 326837 328840 330842 328844 325848
      318855 304868 293881 286889 281897 277905 273912 268918
      264921 263925 262930 265934 270942 273950 273960 268962
      266964 262972 266994 262994 259992 253988 246983 237987
      233989 231992 232997 233000 235001 242005 251008 255010
      256013 257016 261020 263023 267025 273030 275032 279033
      285033 288035 291039 295043 299046 304047 313050 322053
      329058 331062 331069 331072 329078 328085 330089 330095
      329098 328104 329109 335128 339129 343133 348139 354144
      362144 363146 362148 360148 355150 359161 362163 366166
      368169 367173 359167 356176 356180 351179 347178 346171
      345167 342164 340161 335160 327163 326165 329166 333169
      338176 344184 347191 352191 353188 358190 363193 367196
      371199 378204 386210 401219 406219 409213 403207 397200
      391193 389189 390185 393184 398183 402186 403183 400176
      399173 399170 401166 407159 410152 408147 405144 405140
      397138 393138 390139 385136 383132 390126 393124 397123
      406127 411121 415119 417118 417114 413104 411099 411092
      410089 407085 406083 407080 409077 413075 419075 420080
      423084 424089 427094 430097 434100 443100 447099 450095
      437081 436078 438076 440075 442076 448081 454086 454083
      453078 442062 432047 428039 424032 421022 418015
 0.01 470155 471150 468148 465144 462131 458125 454122 454128
      451131 448124 446123 444125 440129 437138 436148 435157
      438163 444168 446170 448173 451180 454179 455174 461165
      470155 470155
 0.01 448192 449190 449187 448185 446184 445184 443186 441188
      439190 439192 439195 439197 441198 443196 445196 447194
      448192
 0.01 264774 263773 262772 261772 260772 258772 258773 256774
      256775 255776 254777 253779 255781 255783 257785 258785
      259783 260782 261781 261780 262778 263776 264774 264774
 0.25 476689 473684 469687 462694 445708 436713 431712 428708
      426702 425696 424684 424674 422666 419663 414664 405670
      399674 395677 388684 382691 373708 366717 361725 354734
      349742 345752 341762 340766 340773 341781 341786 342789
      347790 352788 355788 358790 357794 355799 350809 346818
      345829 341839 336847 333859 327866 319873 311878 302883
      294889 288896 284902 280907 279913 276923 276931 278935
      281941 283947 284960 285965 287969 291972 293972 295969
      299960 304950 306938 305935 302933 300928 304918 308911
      315902 326889 334881 344878 362868 400867 406813 408799
      410787 412783 415779 421774 426770 429765 434757 442751
      448741 467705 473696 476689
 0.25 403074 402071 399071 394073 390069 387070 384070 379060
      377057 382056 387053 387049 387046 384041 385037 387036
      391032 392024 395022 395020 395014 393007 390003 386003
      383003 378006 361014 355016 350015 346003 343999 339998
      336998 327003 323006 320007 317006 307000 303997 300997
      298998 289002 286008 283012 283016 283019 288021 304034
      313039 326042 337042 342043 346046 349052 352056 355061
      358066 360071 358075 354078 351082 351091 352097 358106
      360112 358116 356117 355122 359122 362120 363116 366113
      375107 384101 387098 390093 403074
 0.25 387201 386198 384197 383195 381194 379193 378192 378191
      376191 375189 375188 374188 374190 375191 376192 377194
      379195 380197 381197 382198 384200 385201 387201
 0.25 390116 389115 387115 385115 383116 381117 379119 378121
      377123 377126 379126 380125 382124 384122 385122 386120
      388118 390116
 0.50 448726 447725 447724 446722 445722 443722 442723 440724
      439726 438729 438731 440732 441733 443733 445732 446731
      447729 448727 448726
 0.50 419690 417681 416676 410674 406674 397679 390686 383694
      379705 368721 356739 354745 353751 355757 357759 360765
      362772 365773 368772 372769 376771 378776 379784 378789
      367808 361818 358826 355838 352843 349846 345849 343851
      342856 342860 344863 346862 347864 350862 354859 359857
      379851 386850 390847 393842 395837 396824 397812 397797
      397788 399782 400776 403771 408764 414755 417752 421747
      422741 420735 420729 421724 421715 419705 419690
 0.50 388091 385086 384083 384079 382072 379067 375063 371062
      369063 370070 370079 370086 371093 375098 379099 385095
      388091
 0.50 374053 373049 369048 365045 369042 370039 368030 367027
      363026 355029 352030 350033 353040 355044 355049 356054
      359055 367054 374053
 0.50 343013 342010 339011 334012 330018 325020 319017 314014
      307007 304005 300005 293006 290010 291017 298025 303029
      308032 319035 325035 330031 332027 334021 343013
 0.50 320887 321883 317882 311884 305885 300888 292895 285904
      282910 282916 281925 283933 287936 292934 296929 298924
      304914 310903 316894 320887
 0.50 302945 301942 299945 297946 296949 294952 293954 292958
      294960 296960 297956 298954 299951 301947 302945
 1.00 412694 411688 408683 405682 401683 394688 388694 383702
      380709 371725 366733 363742 365748 369750 373758 381757
      384758 386762 389765 393764 398757 403749 407741 410732
      411721 412697 412694
 1.00 386811 386806 383805 380807 378809 377812 376814 375817
      375820 377823 379824 381823 383820 384817 386813 386811
 1.00 380076 380074 379074 378072 377071 376070 375071 375073
      375075 376078 377080 379078 380076
 1.00 313026 313023 312020 311016 309013 305009 300010 297010
      294010 294013 295014 298017 300021 303024 307026 312026
      313026
 1.00 309894 309890 305889 299893 294897 289902 286910 286918
      286923 288925 294922 298916 301910 305903 308897 309894
 1.50 405710 404701 401697 399695 395695 391699 387703 384708
      379719 375731 375735 376739 379744 389751 390753 393753
      397749 401739 404731 405724 405710
 1.50 307017 306015 305013 304012 303013 302014 301015 302016
      302017 303019 305019 307017 307017
 1.50 306895 302893 298896 295899 293901 291906 290910 290914
      290917 293915 296912 299908 300905 302901 305897 306895
 2.00 399714 398710 396708 392710 391712 389715 388719 388721
      387725 387728 389730 391730 395729 396726 397724 398721
      398716 399714

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290807
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z SAT APR 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW MLC 15 SW MKO 10 N BPK 30 SE POF 50 WSW HOP 50 SSW CKV
40 NNW MSL 15 NE TUP 25 ENE GWO 30 S GLH 35 ENE BQP 20 SW AEX
15 ENE BPT GLS 10 NW BYY 45 WNW VCT 20 ESE HDO 25 SW ERV
10 WSW 05F 15 WNW GYI 20 NW MLC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE CLL CRS 15 WSW GVT 40 WNW DEQ 40 NW DEQ 25 ESE RKR
25 NE RUE 15 N M19 15 SE JBR NQA 10 SE OLV 35 SE UTA 35 N GWO
25 SSE LLQ 35 WSW MLU 10 ESE JAS 30 W BPT LVJ 10 WNW SGR
15 ESE 11R 25 NE CLL.


EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

BROAD SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING UPPER TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN
TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES OVER
EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW MS
AND WESTERN TN.  THE HI RES ARW---NSSL WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO
MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
WERE FAVORED FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION.   IN AREAS OF TRAINING---SHORT TERM PRECIP
TOTAL OF 2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 290804
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 12Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/CENTRAL NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI. INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CO WILL
TRANSITION TO A DYNAMIC COOLING/DEVELOPING DEFORMATION PLUME... AS
MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTS FROM NWRN NM TO SERN CO AND DRIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY UNANIMOUS
IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO ROCKIES AND SPREAD DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN THE GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT WITH PTYPE. THE ECMWF/NAM DUO REMAIN MUCH COLDER WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS THAN THE GFS/SREF MEAN... WPC WENT WITH A
LARGE COMPROMISE OF THE FOURSOME WITH AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN CO INTO WRN NE. THE SNOW ON SAT WILL BE
IN TWO AREAS... ONE WITH A TROWAL FEATURE WRAPPING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NE INTO WY AND THE OTHER
WITH THE NEXT DYNAMIC JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SRN CO INTO NRN NM. THE TRICKY SPOT HERE AGAIN
CONTINUES TO BE OUT OVER NE WHERE THE SAME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DISCREPANCIES EXIST. WPC FOLLOWED THE SAME MODEL
COMPROMISE FOR PTYPE ON SAT. FINALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL FILL AND SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EXPAND/FILL WHILE UPPER DYNAMICS TRANSITION DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE SAN
JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 290804
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 12Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 12Z MON MAY 02 2016

DAYS 1-3...

...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES/CENTRAL NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A LATE SEASON SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI. INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CO WILL
TRANSITION TO A DYNAMIC COOLING/DEVELOPING DEFORMATION PLUME... AS
MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTS FROM NWRN NM TO SERN CO AND DRIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY UNANIMOUS
IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO ROCKIES AND SPREAD DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN THE GUIDANCE VARIES
QUITE A BIT WITH PTYPE. THE ECMWF/NAM DUO REMAIN MUCH COLDER WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS THAN THE GFS/SREF MEAN... WPC WENT WITH A
LARGE COMPROMISE OF THE FOURSOME WITH AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN CO INTO WRN NE. THE SNOW ON SAT WILL BE
IN TWO AREAS... ONE WITH A TROWAL FEATURE WRAPPING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NE INTO WY AND THE OTHER
WITH THE NEXT DYNAMIC JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SRN CO INTO NRN NM. THE TRICKY SPOT HERE AGAIN
CONTINUES TO BE OUT OVER NE WHERE THE SAME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DISCREPANCIES EXIST. WPC FOLLOWED THE SAME MODEL
COMPROMISE FOR PTYPE ON SAT. FINALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL FILL AND SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EXPAND/FILL WHILE UPPER DYNAMICS TRANSITION DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE SAN
JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290710
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU MAY 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON TAP FOR A LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES OF STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN---ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH TWO MAX PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE
FROM EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS PRECIP AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST
WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS.


EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.


PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.


LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.


DAYS 2/3...

INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SOUTHERN MEMBER OF A REX BLOCK MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION, DROPPING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  STARTED
OUT WITH AN 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED
CONTINUITY THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY HELPS LEAD
TO A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH DROPS
SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  WENT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ONLY NEAR 1-1.25", WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLD POOL TO
SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE AREA MORE SOUTHWARD.  THE 00Z GUIDANCE HELD
SERVE FOR THE MOST PART, SO FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.


CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW, STARTED WITH 18Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF CONTINUITY THEN MADE INCREMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS PER THE
00Z GUIDANCE -- THE QPF PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST MOST RESEMBLES A
00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION.  THIS KEPT REASONABLE
CONTINUITY AND TIGHTENED UP THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN A TAD.  A
PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH SLOWLY DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND RELATED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS.  GOOD INFLOW, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND
POTENTIALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF WV.  AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE
RLX/CHARLESTON WV OFFICE, DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 2 (SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING), HOLDING OFF ON THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 (SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING) UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME AND SEE IF THE GUIDANCE CAN
RETAIN CONSISTENCY QPF-WISE IN THIS REGION LATER TODAY.


NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE 00Z SPCWRF AND WRF4NSSL KEEP AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE GOING
FROM THE MORNING OF APRIL 30 ONWARD WITHIN A DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FOLLOWED
THEIR LEAD WHICH WAS WELL REFLECTED WITHIN 29/00Z WPC CONTINUITY
THOUGH THE PROGRESSION WAS SPED UP A TAD PER RECENT GUIDANCE.  THE
06Z WPC QPF SOLUTION STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE 28/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
REFORECAST FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING (DAY 2).  THE
ORIENTATION/STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY POOL IN 21Z SREF MEAN CAPE
FIELDS ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD EASILY
KEEP THE LINE ACTIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING/MAY 1.  AFTER THAT THE
INFLOW WEAKENS, WHICH ALLOWS THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND
LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
USED THE 9C 700 HPA ISOTHERM AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD (PROXY FOR THE MID-LEVEL CAP
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR).  STILL, SINCE WE`RE DEALING WITH A
POTENTIALLY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREA, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO ITS TIMING -- IT COULD MOVE FASTER PER
12Z/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LINE, WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH
THE GULF COAST FORECAST OFFICES.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/ROTH

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537184 538176 537172 531165 525158 514149 502141
      492135 485128 478121 466118 460113 458111 457108 456103
      455098 453095 449092 445091 438087 436081 436075 438072
      441072 444075 445070 444066 446029 443004 439981 437967
      436961 435954 428930 426920 423911 420899 417890 414879
      411872 407857 402845 398836 394830 391828 387826 381827
      375828 371830 364836 355848 353852 350854 343858 334861
      323863 317865 315857 310839 308834 307829 306822 303816
      297810 293807 288807 268804 264804 259804 255806 254810
      255814 258817 264822 271827 278830 285831 288839 290843
      290847 294853 302870 307895 309900 309907 309914 306918
      299923 292929 290931 289936 288940 284943 272953 279978
      277984 275989 275993 277997 279000 283002 291006 305007
      309005 312002 314001 317003 320005 325010 328014 332015
      337015 341017 345026 348035 350044 351052 346065 350073
      346075 342074 338073 336077 334081 334086 337111 342112
      347115 354122 362123 363121 359119 353112 348105 345099
      343091 347090 351093 354100 361105 368108 374109 378112
      379116 377118 374122 366146 364151 365156 369163 373165
      375169 376174 375181 375186 375193 377196 380199 386203
      391201 395206 399205 400202 401197 404196 409199 415202
      419204 423208 428210 430214 429220 424225 423228 425232
      426237 428242 432244 436245 441245 445246 453251 464254
      467253 472254 475253 479254 482252 483249 482241 480231
      478227 483226 491231 499238 502241 506237 513239 516238
      519233 521223 525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 467185 465183 462185 457189
      452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205 481203
 0.01 443176 441167 435160 432157 430153 430145 431142 432135
      434133 437128 438125 437122 432123 430126 428130 424134
      418130 411125 406124 402125 398127 397130 399131 405132
      407134 413142 418147 421151 423157 424162 427165 429168
      430173 429178 427181 427184 430185 434184 438184 440182
      443176
 0.01 443863 441849 439846 438839 435826 433811 431808 431804
      430796 431785 432777 432769 431760 432754 431747 428741
      424734 419722 414712 404696 398686 388682 384680 379680
      370684 362690 359696 357700 355705 356710 359719 363724
      367726 368729 367731 363735 361738 361744 361749 364754
      368764 372769 375772 379776 380781 383791 384797 387804
      393812 397814 400814 400812 400809 402807 407806 410812
      412814 412818 414835 415851 417854 417859 423869 435869
      440866 443863
 0.25 529186 529182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438027 437016 434002 430985 425968 420954 416943
      410925 405908 401891 400886 397880 393873 389867 383863
      376861 363863 353866 338871 334877 331883 331892 331897
      330902 328908 325912 314922 304931 295940 288947 283954
      282957 283962 286978 288984 294988 301989 307988 321983
      329980 335979 340983 344988 346990 346994 345999 363021
      364039 364047 366053 375055 377057 378062 382069 385071
      389071 396072 403070 409069 412066 426061 430053 434047
      436042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433013 432005 429993 424978 418963 385929 384925
      385920 386912 386905 385896 385891 383888 379882 375878
      370874 366871 360869 349872 343875 338880 335886 334893
      333900 331908 328913 325915 315924 305933 299942 291948
      287954 286962 288970 290974 292981 296985 302985 307984
      332974 337972 345973 350974 354977 352986 353996 355002
      361005 365008 369013 371019 370026 369036 371041 376046
      383049 389050 396052 402052 407051 416051 422049 429037
      432030 433021
 1.00 427020 426008 426999 424992 421982 419976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 375969
      368978 364981 362984 363990 366994 369999 372001 376005
      379010 380016 381022 380033 384036 389038 395039 401040
      411039 414040 416038 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 370927 370918 370910 370899 367891 362882 357877 350879
      345883 342886 337901 335907 332912 323920 314928 306937
      303943 300946 291956 291960 292964 295968 299973 301975
      305975 310974 315975 322973 328971 350962 355958 358955
      366943 368936 370927
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 413979 410984 406993 401995 396995
      395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019 409018 412020
      415017 420008 422999
 1.50 363912 362904 360899 359892 356887 351884 346886 341897
      340903 338908 330917 323922 318926 314930 303949 297956
      296961 299966 303969 308969 318971 327969 337964 341960
      343955 347951 350951 353949 355945 357939 360925 363912
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 357912 356902 351892 348892 346895 342905 332918 326923
      317928 313933 312943 308950 305952 301955 300960 302964
      306966 312966 319962 323959 323954 326950 329948 337944
      344944 348942 350938 352934 353929 353923 355918 357912
 3.00 348919 349913 344911 340912 337915 332924 330927 328930
      320935 318945 319948 321949 325947 332942 339937 342935
      344930 347921 348919

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 537196 536186 534176 529168 524162 517155 511149 504142
      497138 490131 480126 475124 473121 474118 475104 469080
      463060 460052 457042 452023 449999 449969 446938 444925
      442913 440899 439882 438870 436854 436847 437841 440832
      444814 446802 447790 447782 448778 447763 449752 453740
      454734 457729 453721 413720 401709 395703 389702 380701
      374708 367715 368721 370725 371729 370734 368745 366752
      363757 360760 355763 345777 341781 336780 332780 330785
      331789 336789 339788 341787 341790 337795 328800 308807
      303808 300810 296812 293811 284810 275813 273815 273818
      272820 273822 280828 288832 295836 298838 299841 301846
      303851 304853 307853 315856 319862 321868 319872 316875
      313874 307867 301863 297863 293866 293872 296876 296882
      298886 300889 299893 291899 283906 277911 270915 261923
      258926 257931 257937 260939 266943 266955 266961 265967
      261974 259978 259983 262992 267999 267005 270009 278016
      285020 296022 300021 301020 303018 300013 297010 290004
      288001 283999 279997 282995 288989 300980 314969 321965
      327960 332957 337954 346950 355945 363941 368936 373935
      377938 383945 385951 386956 388967 388979 389989 388000
      387006 386013 386018 388023 389029 389036 386037 383037
      378037 368035 360037 350041 347044 344046 335049 331051
      328055 334073 330077 329077 329083 329090 327094 325098
      324103 342133 348141 353150 356155 356159 358161 361164
      367167 370170 372175 370180 366179 361179 357182 352181
      347180 345172 343168 337166
 0.01 337166 332164 327163 326166 327169 331173 335180 337185
      344197 347201 350196 352191 356189 359191 371198 383207
      392212 397215 400216 402212 398197 394182 395177 397176
      401173 405177 407173 410169 412171 412174 415178 418185
      425187 428187 430186 430181 427182 423179 422176 423174
      422167 423162 424165 427171 430171 432169 432166 424159
      422155 423151 424141 425136 427133 431129 436124 439122
      440125 441129 440132 436137 433142 433149 435162 444172
      448176 449179 447179 444180 443185 445188 451190 455186
      463178 457175 456172 456168 460164 465168 477175 481178
      487185 529207 537196
 0.01 509807 509802 507797 505792 502790 497786 492777 490774
      486775 480782 479790 478795 475800 472806 469816 466819
      465824 464829 464834 466843 469844 473848 474850 477852
      485851 492851 497850 498847 499837 499829 498822 498814
      503813 506815 509810 509807
 0.01 492736 490718 487714 483712 482705 481703 477703 475708
      476712 476719 473725 471733 474738 476740 475742 473748
      469753 472754 476750 480749 482746 483743 487741 490740
      491737 492736
 0.01 415137 416132 415130 414127 411126 407128 402126 397124
      393126 389130 388134 390136 395135 403136 407139 413139
      415137
 0.01 420095 420086 418080 415078 412078 407082 402084 398090
      396095 394098 392098 389098 385099 381103 380105 379109
      384110 388111 393109 395108 396104 397101 399102 402103
      404100 405093 407090 409091 412096 414103 416104 417102
      420095
 0.01 287858 286856 285856 285858 286860 287858 287858
 0.01 246809 246807 245806 244805 243803 241805 241807 242809
      243810 245809 246809
 0.25 451100 450095 448093 444089 440086 435081 433088 427089
      429096 432102 432109 438110 442108 447106 451100
 0.25 450078 447068 441060 440055 440046 443032 443012 443998
      442979 441964 439951 437938 435926 432913 426884 423851
      425825 426813 427798 427790 426783 423775 421771 416768
      411766 405757 400748 394741 391738 386737 382741 380745
      377756 374766 371772 366776 362777 361776 357779 353787
      349797 340816 334824 331828 328834 330841 331847 331863
      330869 328872 322880 314885 306892 298899 291906 283913
      274919 268923 266927 267932 273940 276944 278949 280961
      282966 285970 287971 290970 295968 300964 305960 317948
      330934 339927 348920 353918 359916 368917 377919 381921
      384924 387928 390932 393944 395957 395973 397991 400005
      405026 413048 414054 417060 421067 426068 429072 432076
      433079 436080 439076 450078
 0.25 427122 429120 427118 427117 426117 425117 424119 424122
      425123 427123 427122
 0.25 417118 417116 415113 413113 410112 409110 409106 407104
      406107 405109 403112 400113 402116 404118 406119 409120
      413120 416120 417118
 0.25 411155 412151 410149 405145 401141 397142 391144 387148
      390153 395158 397164 400162 405158 409156 411155
 0.25 397115 395113 392113 385113 376116 372115 370109 368095
      367089 365083 361079 356078 354081 354086 358098 360103
      363108 366110 365111 360112 352106 345098 341095 338095
      337097 337106 338113 341122 344128 349132 357137 370142
      374140 377136 385127 397115
 0.25 385166 385163 383162 382161 380162 380165 381166 383167
      385166
 0.25 384086 386078 386070 385065 386058 387055 387052 383048
      372046 367045 362045 357047 354053 354056 359059 364069
      367072 369077 373088 375092 378094 382090 384086
 0.25 366155 366154 366153 365152 363152 361153 360154 360156
      361158 362159 364159 366157 366156 366155
 0.50 443099 445096 444094 443092 442091 442090 440089 439088
      438088 437087 436088 435090 435093 435095 436097 436098
      437100 439100 440100 441100 443099 443099
 0.50 439007 439992 438974 436959 433944 429929 426913 422898
      418882 417873 417867 416852 416844 417836 419821 421790
      420786 417784 415783 412785 409792 406799 405811 400814
      398820 399838 399856 398864 396867 393867 389862 387855
      385850 381845 375843 368846 364849 359850 358847 360842
      366831 369826 375824 394814 394804 395796 395790 395781
      398769 398760 396755 392751 387751 384758 382763 379771
      375776 368786 360794 357800 355808 352818 347828 343840
      341846 341855 336870 334876 330880 309892 301899 294907
      286914 277921 272924 270927 272932 279941 281947 285954
      288959 290961 294961 302956 310949 318941 326933 343915
      351906 360898 364900 367905 371907 378909 383910 389912
      395922 400927 403935 407949 406968 405978 405986 406000
      409013 417038 420053 422057 424059 427058 428053 430045
      433039 436032 438023 439007
 0.50 380080 381078 381076 380074 380072 379071 378071 376070
      375069 373071 373073 374075 374077 374078 375080 375081
      377082 379081 380080
 0.50 370127 369122 365119 360118 356116 353114 347112 345113
      344116 346121 348125 351128 355131 358132 363132 365130
      369127 370127
 0.50 375053 375051 374050 372049 370049 369048 367048 365048
      363048 361048 360049 358051 358053 358054 359055 361054
      363054 365054 367053 368053 370053 372053 374053 375053
 0.50 363094 362092 362091 361089 360088 359089 359091 359094
      360095 362095 363094
 1.00 434007 434990 433976 430964 426953 422950 417952 415957
      413963 415977 416991 418006 423015 426018 430017 432013
      434007
 1.00 417912 417910 417909 416907 415905 415907 415909 416910
      417912 417912
 1.00 409877 409875 409873 408875 407877 407878 407879 409878
      409877
 1.00 409861 409859 408857 408855 408854 407852 406850 406848
      406847 405848 404848 403850 403852 404855 404857 405858
      405859 406861 407861 408862 409861
 1.00 394897 393890 392883 389877 386871 382866 380865 377866
      375873 375880 376886 378895 383897 389898 392899 394897
 1.00 386809 386806 385806 385809 386809
 1.00 362125 362123 361122 359121 357121 356121 354122 355124
      357126 359127 360127 362125
 1.00 344899 341892 339887 334886 318892 310896 303901 298907
      292914 285931 284934 285940 287943 290946 297951 301949
      305947 311942 317935 328922 339909 344899
 1.50 428987 428983 427980 427975 426973 423971 421970 421971
      422975 422980 423982 424987 425989 427990 428987
 1.50 388890 388888 388886 387884 386881 384879 383881 382882
      381884 380886 381888 383891 385892 387891 388890
 1.50 337904 333899 332897 328896 322895 315898 309900 304904
      299908 295914 292929 292935 296941 296943 300945 307942
      315932 323923 331913 337904
 2.00 330911 322905 322902 317902 312903 306905 302907 299912
      298916 297923 297929 298935 300939 303941 310935 317927
      324919 330912 330911

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 418015 413007 410998 407989 403988 400986 394981 393983
      388983 373987 369989 364989 355989 349983 343976 338972
      334967 330960 328952 323932 317926 312922 310920 311917
      313915 319908 323903 328899 341890 357884 363884 366885
      375885 378886 381888 385893 388897 390902 394909 396917
      400927 403934 405943 408951 410961 414970 416973 417970
      421964 423960 424954 423952 423946 423932 423921 422915
      421912 416864 422825 423815 426807 430807 434809 439804
      443799 447794 451775 454754 459746 461741 462737 470722
      474715 481716 488719 492721 493720 491706 492701 492693
      491687 492682 493676 494672 494666 496663 498657 503655
      507651 510645 502626 496628 493632 491637 487642 476656
      470663 467668 464672 452687 444693 441694 439693 437689
      435685 434679 435668 435656 430650 427647 422648 418649
      414652 398666 386679 379688 375698 371705 364711 353723
      349727 346732 342739 333754 326768 321778 317782 312783
      305788 299794 292801 290801 288804 290808 295809 301809
      307809 305813 303816 303822 301826 302831 304834 307835
      312835 316835 320836 326837 328840 330842 328844 325848
      318855 304868 293881 286889 281897 277905 273912 268918
      264921 263925 262930 265934 270942 273950 273960 268962
      266964 262972 266994 262994 259992 253988 246983 237987
      233989 231992 232997 233000 235001 242005 251008 255010
      256013 257016 261020 263023 267025 273030 275032 279033
      285033 288035 291039 295043 299046 304047 313050 322053
      329058 331062 331069 331072 329078 328085 330089 330095
      329098 328104 329109 335128 339129 343133 348139 354144
      362144 363146 362148 360148 355150 359161 362163 366166
      368169 367173 359167 356176 356180 351179 347178 346171
      345167 342164 340161 335160 327163 326165 329166 333169
      338176 344184 347191 352191 353188 358190 363193 367196
      371199 378204 386210 401219 406219 409213 403207 397200
      391193 389189 390185 393184 398183 402186 403183 400176
      399173 399170 401166 407159 410152 408147 405144 405140
      397138 393138 390139 385136 383132 390126 393124 397123
      406127 411121 415119 417118 417114 413104 411099 411092
      410089 407085 406083 407080 409077 413075 419075 420080
      423084 424089 427094 430097 434100 443100 447099 450095
      437081 436078 438076 440075 442076 448081 454086 454083
      453078 442062 432047 428039 424032 421022 418015
 0.01 470155 471150 468148 465144 462131 458125 454122 454128
      451131 448124 446123 444125 440129 437138 436148 435157
      438163 444168 446170 448173 451180 454179 455174 461165
      470155 470155
 0.01 448192 449190 449187 448185 446184 445184 443186 441188
      439190 439192 439195 439197 441198 443196 445196 447194
      448192
 0.01 264774 263773 262772 261772 260772 258772 258773 256774
      256775 255776 254777 253779 255781 255783 257785 258785
      259783 260782 261781 261780 262778 263776 264774 264774
 0.25 476689 473684 469687 462694 445708 436713 431712 428708
      426702 425696 424684 424674 422666 419663 414664 405670
      399674 395677 388684 382691 373708 366717 361725 354734
      349742 345752 341762 340766 340773 341781 341786 342789
      347790 352788 355788 358790 357794 355799 350809 346818
      345829 341839 336847 333859 327866 319873 311878 302883
      294889 288896 284902 280907 279913 276923 276931 278935
      281941 283947 284960 285965 287969 291972 293972 295969
      299960 304950 306938 305935 302933 300928 304918 308911
      315902 326889 334881 344878 362868 400867 406813 408799
      410787 412783 415779 421774 426770 429765 434757 442751
      448741 467705 473696 476689
 0.25 403074 402071 399071 394073 390069 387070 384070 379060
      377057 382056 387053 387049 387046 384041 385037 387036
      391032 392024 395022 395020 395014 393007 390003 386003
      383003 378006 361014 355016 350015 346003 343999 339998
      336998 327003 323006 320007 317006 307000 303997 300997
      298998 289002 286008 283012 283016 283019 288021 304034
      313039 326042 337042 342043 346046 349052 352056 355061
      358066 360071 358075 354078 351082 351091 352097 358106
      360112 358116 356117 355122 359122 362120 363116 366113
      375107 384101 387098 390093 403074
 0.25 387201 386198 384197 383195 381194 379193 378192 378191
      376191 375189 375188 374188 374190 375191 376192 377194
      379195 380197 381197 382198 384200 385201 387201
 0.25 390116 389115 387115 385115 383116 381117 379119 378121
      377123 377126 379126 380125 382124 384122 385122 386120
      388118 390116
 0.50 448726 447725 447724 446722 445722 443722 442723 440724
      439726 438729 438731 440732 441733 443733 445732 446731
      447729 448727 448726
 0.50 419690 417681 416676 410674 406674 397679 390686 383694
      379705 368721 356739 354745 353751 355757 357759 360765
      362772 365773 368772 372769 376771 378776 379784 378789
      367808 361818 358826 355838 352843 349846 345849 343851
      342856 342860 344863 346862 347864 350862 354859 359857
      379851 386850 390847 393842 395837 396824 397812 397797
      397788 399782 400776 403771 408764 414755 417752 421747
      422741 420735 420729 421724 421715 419705 419690
 0.50 388091 385086 384083 384079 382072 379067 375063 371062
      369063 370070 370079 370086 371093 375098 379099 385095
      388091
 0.50 374053 373049 369048 365045 369042 370039 368030 367027
      363026 355029 352030 350033 353040 355044 355049 356054
      359055 367054 374053
 0.50 343013 342010 339011 334012 330018 325020 319017 314014
      307007 304005 300005 293006 290010 291017 298025 303029
      308032 319035 325035 330031 332027 334021 343013
 0.50 320887 321883 317882 311884 305885 300888 292895 285904
      282910 282916 281925 283933 287936 292934 296929 298924
      304914 310903 316894 320887
 0.50 302945 301942 299945 297946 296949 294952 293954 292958
      294960 296960 297956 298954 299951 301947 302945
 1.00 412694 411688 408683 405682 401683 394688 388694 383702
      380709 371725 366733 363742 365748 369750 373758 381757
      384758 386762 389765 393764 398757 403749 407741 410732
      411721 412697 412694
 1.00 386811 386806 383805 380807 378809 377812 376814 375817
      375820 377823 379824 381823 383820 384817 386813 386811
 1.00 380076 380074 379074 378072 377071 376070 375071 375073
      375075 376078 377080 379078 380076
 1.00 313026 313023 312020 311016 309013 305009 300010 297010
      294010 294013 295014 298017 300021 303024 307026 312026
      313026
 1.00 309894 309890 305889 299893 294897 289902 286910 286918
      286923 288925 294922 298916 301910 305903 308897 309894
 1.50 405710 404701 401697 399695 395695 391699 387703 384708
      379719 375731 375735 376739 379744 389751 390753 393753
      397749 401739 404731 405724 405710
 1.50 307017 306015 305013 304012 303013 302014 301015 302016
      302017 303019 305019 307017 307017
 1.50 306895 302893 298896 295899 293901 291906 290910 290914
      290917 293915 296912 299908 300905 302901 305897 306895
 2.00 399714 398710 396708 392710 391712 389715 388719 388721
      387725 387728 389730 391730 395729 396726 397724 398721
      398716 399714

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU APR 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAX
PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP
AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537184 538176 537172 531165 525158 514149 502141
      492135 485128 478121 466118 460113 458111 457108 456103
      455098 453095 449092 445091 438087 436081 436075 438072
      441072 444075 445070 444066 446029 443004 439981 437967
      436961 435954 428930 426920 423911 420899 417890 414879
      411872 407857 402845 398836 394830 391828 387826 381827
      375828 371830 364836 355848 353852 350854 343858 334861
      323863 317865 315857 310839 308834 307829 306822 303816
      297810 293807 288807 268804 264804 259804 255806 254810
      255814 258817 264822 271827 278830 285831 288839 290843
      290847 294853 302870 307895 309900 309907 309914 306918
      299923 292929 290931 289936 288940 284943 272953 279978
      277984 275989 275993 277997 279000 283002 291006 305007
      309005 312002 314001 317003 320005 325010 328014 332015
      337015 341017 345026 348035 350044 351052 346065 350073
      346075 342074 338073 336077 334081 334086 337111 342112
      347115 354122 362123 363121 359119 353112 348105 345099
      343091 347090 351093 354100 361105 368108 374109 378112
      379116 377118 374122 366146 364151 365156 369163 373165
      375169 376174 375181 375186 375193 377196 380199 386203
      391201 395206 399205 400202 401197 404196 409199 415202
      419204 423208 428210 430214 429220 424225 423228 425232
      426237 428242 432244 436245 441245 445246 453251 464254
      467253 472254 475253 479254 482252 483249 482241 480231
      478227 483226 491231 499238 502241 506237 513239 516238
      519233 521223 525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 467185 465183 462185 457189
      452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205 481203
 0.01 443176 441167 435160 432157 430153 430145 431142 432135
      434133 437128 438125 437122 432123 430126 428130 424134
      418130 411125 406124 402125 398127 397130 399131 405132
      407134 413142 418147 421151 423157 424162 427165 429168
      430173 429178 427181 427184 430185 434184 438184 440182
      443176
 0.01 443863 441849 439846 438839 435826 433811 431808 431804
      430796 431785 432777 432769 431760 432754 431747 428741
      424734 419722 414712 404696 398686 388682 384680 379680
      370684 362690 359696 357700 355705 356710 359719 363724
      367726 368729 367731 363735 361738 361744 361749 364754
      368764 372769 375772 379776 380781 383791 384797 387804
      393812 397814 400814 400812 400809 402807 407806 410812
      412814 412818 414835 415851 417854 417859 423869 435869
      440866 443863
 0.25 529186 529182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438027 437016 434002 430985 425968 420954 416943
      410925 405908 401891 400886 397880 393873 389867 383863
      376861 363863 353866 338871 334877 331883 331892 331897
      330902 328908 325912 314922 304931 295940 288947 283954
      282957 283962 286978 288984 294988 301989 307988 321983
      329980 335979 340983 344988 346990 346994 345999 363021
      364039 364047 366053 375055 377057 378062 382069 385071
      389071 396072 403070 409069 412066 426061 430053 434047
      436042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433013 432005 429993 424978 418963 385929 384925
      385920 386912 386905 385896 385891 383888 379882 375878
      370874 366871 360869 349872 343875 338880 335886 334893
      333900 331908 328913 325915 315924 305933 299942 291948
      287954 286962 288970 290974 292981 296985 302985 307984
      332974 337972 345973 350974 354977 352986 353996 355002
      361005 365008 369013 371019 370026 369036 371041 376046
      383049 389050 396052 402052 407051 416051 422049 429037
      432030 433021
 1.00 427020 426008 426999 424992 421982 419976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 375969
      368978 364981 362984 363990 366994 369999 372001 376005
      379010 380016 381022 380033 384036 389038 395039 401040
      411039 414040 416038 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 370927 370918 370910 370899 367891 362882 357877 350879
      345883 342886 337901 335907 332912 323920 314928 306937
      303943 300946 291956 291960 292964 295968 299973 301975
      305975 310974 315975 322973 328971 350962 355958 358955
      366943 368936 370927
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 413979 410984 406993 401995 396995
      395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019 409018 412020
      415017 420008 422999
 1.50 363912 362904 360899 359892 356887 351884 346886 341897
      340903 338908 330917 323922 318926 314930 303949 297956
      296961 299966 303969 308969 318971 327969 337964 341960
      343955 347951 350951 353949 355945 357939 360925 363912
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 357912 356902 351892 348892 346895 342905 332918 326923
      317928 313933 312943 308950 305952 301955 300960 302964
      306966 312966 319962 323959 323954 326950 329948 337944
      344944 348942 350938 352934 353929 353923 355918 357912
 3.00 348919 349913 344911 340912 337915 332924 330927 328930
      320935 318945 319948 321949 325947 332942 339937 342935
      344930 347921 348919

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU APR 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STRONG CLOSED LOWS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTER TERM TIMING...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO MAX
PRECIP AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ONE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS AND INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NE.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP
AREA THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
FAR NORTHWEST KS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER SOUTHEAST CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAX LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHEAST OK---MUCH OF AR--NORTHWEST MS INTO WESTERN TN.  LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 INTO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM  NORTHERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS HERE AS THERE IS A
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM TIMING.  DAY 1 QPF
LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-FOCUSES
OVER EASTERN TX...PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW LA...AR...NW
MS AND WESTERN TN.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ARW---NSSL
WRF WHICH WERE QUICKER TO MOVE THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
TROF...WITH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW---THERE WILL BE A LARGE THREAT
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---MUCH OF LA---NW MS---SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFYING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THESE
AREAS--BUT AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 535198 537184 538176 537172 531165 525158 514149 502141
      492135 485128 478121 466118 460113 458111 457108 456103
      455098 453095 449092 445091 438087 436081 436075 438072
      441072 444075 445070 444066 446029 443004 439981 437967
      436961 435954 428930 426920 423911 420899 417890 414879
      411872 407857 402845 398836 394830 391828 387826 381827
      375828 371830 364836 355848 353852 350854 343858 334861
      323863 317865 315857 310839 308834 307829 306822 303816
      297810 293807 288807 268804 264804 259804 255806 254810
      255814 258817 264822 271827 278830 285831 288839 290843
      290847 294853 302870 307895 309900 309907 309914 306918
      299923 292929 290931 289936 288940 284943 272953 279978
      277984 275989 275993 277997 279000 283002 291006 305007
      309005 312002 314001 317003 320005 325010 328014 332015
      337015 341017 345026 348035 350044 351052 346065 350073
      346075 342074 338073 336077 334081 334086 337111 342112
      347115 354122 362123 363121 359119 353112 348105 345099
      343091 347090 351093 354100 361105 368108 374109 378112
      379116 377118 374122 366146 364151 365156 369163 373165
      375169 376174 375181 375186 375193 377196 380199 386203
      391201 395206 399205 400202 401197 404196 409199 415202
      419204 423208 428210 430214 429220 424225 423228 425232
      426237 428242 432244 436245 441245 445246 453251 464254
      467253 472254 475253 479254 482252 483249 482241 480231
      478227 483226 491231 499238 502241 506237 513239 516238
      519233 521223 525213 531207 535198
 0.01 481203 482198 478195 471193 467185 465183 462185 457189
      452196 451207 454210 457209 464208 471206 478205 481203
 0.01 443176 441167 435160 432157 430153 430145 431142 432135
      434133 437128 438125 437122 432123 430126 428130 424134
      418130 411125 406124 402125 398127 397130 399131 405132
      407134 413142 418147 421151 423157 424162 427165 429168
      430173 429178 427181 427184 430185 434184 438184 440182
      443176
 0.01 443863 441849 439846 438839 435826 433811 431808 431804
      430796 431785 432777 432769 431760 432754 431747 428741
      424734 419722 414712 404696 398686 388682 384680 379680
      370684 362690 359696 357700 355705 356710 359719 363724
      367726 368729 367731 363735 361738 361744 361749 364754
      368764 372769 375772 379776 380781 383791 384797 387804
      393812 397814 400814 400812 400809 402807 407806 410812
      412814 412818 414835 415851 417854 417859 423869 435869
      440866 443863
 0.25 529186 529182 527177 522170 516166 510163 506162 502163
      498170 500178 505184 510189 516194 522198 526191 529186
 0.25 467162 466157 464153 459150 456147 454147 450149 447151
      446156 449160 452163 455164 459163 464164 467162
 0.25 454223 454221 454220 452220 450219 449218 447218 446218
      445220 444220 443222 442222 443223 444224 446225 448225
      449225 451225 451224 453223 454223
 0.25 438035 438027 437016 434002 430985 425968 420954 416943
      410925 405908 401891 400886 397880 393873 389867 383863
      376861 363863 353866 338871 334877 331883 331892 331897
      330902 328908 325912 314922 304931 295940 288947 283954
      282957 283962 286978 288984 294988 301989 307988 321983
      329980 335979 340983 344988 346990 346994 345999 363021
      364039 364047 366053 375055 377057 378062 382069 385071
      389071 396072 403070 409069 412066 426061 430053 434047
      436042 438035
 0.25 391176 391174 389173 389175 389176 391177 391176
 0.50 433021 433013 432005 429993 424978 418963 385929 384925
      385920 386912 386905 385896 385891 383888 379882 375878
      370874 366871 360869 349872 343875 338880 335886 334893
      333900 331908 328913 325915 315924 305933 299942 291948
      287954 286962 288970 290974 292981 296985 302985 307984
      332974 337972 345973 350974 354977 352986 353996 355002
      361005 365008 369013 371019 370026 369036 371041 376046
      383049 389050 396052 402052 407051 416051 422049 429037
      432030 433021
 1.00 427020 426008 426999 424992 421982 419976 415973 411970
      406969 403970 402973 400977 391975 382968 378967 375969
      368978 364981 362984 363990 366994 369999 372001 376005
      379010 380016 381022 380033 384036 389038 395039 401040
      411039 414040 416038 419031 423025 427020
 1.00 370927 370918 370910 370899 367891 362882 357877 350879
      345883 342886 337901 335907 332912 323920 314928 306937
      303943 300946 291956 291960 292964 295968 299973 301975
      305975 310974 315975 322973 328971 350962 355958 358955
      366943 368936 370927
 1.50 422999 421987 417980 413979 410984 406993 401995 396995
      395000 395005 397009 399014 402019 405019 409018 412020
      415017 420008 422999
 1.50 363912 362904 360899 359892 356887 351884 346886 341897
      340903 338908 330917 323922 318926 314930 303949 297956
      296961 299966 303969 308969 318971 327969 337964 341960
      343955 347951 350951 353949 355945 357939 360925 363912
 2.00 417996 417994 417993 415993 415994 415995 416996 417996
      417996
 2.00 357912 356902 351892 348892 346895 342905 332918 326923
      317928 313933 312943 308950 305952 301955 300960 302964
      306966 312966 319962 323959 323954 326950 329948 337944
      344944 348942 350938 352934 353929 353923 355918 357912
 3.00 348919 349913 344911 340912 337915 332924 330927 328930
      320935 318945 319948 321949 325947 332942 339937 342935
      344930 347921 348919

$$






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities