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000
FXUS04 KWBC 040710
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT AS EVIDENT BY BOTH THE GLOBAL AND CAM GUIDANCE AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN ALSO REMAINS TIED TO THE
TOPOGRAPHY IN SOUTHEAST AZ INTO WESTERN NM AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL-CENTRAL CO. AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT
RATHER QUICKLY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL NEVERTHELESS BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC QPF
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ON A 5 KM SCALE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
.50-.75 INCH ALONG THE S/SW FACING SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
AZ...WESTERN NM...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL 500 MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A
GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE
MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A
MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO
/ MONTANA...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT
THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG) POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A
LIKELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. PWS PEAKING BETWEEN
1.75-2.00 INCHES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE 3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND MAY APPROACH THE DAILY MAX FOR INTERNATIONAL FALLS
(1.94"). LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PRIOR WPC QPF FROM 12Z FRI
- 12Z SAT...OUTSIDE OF PULLING THE 1+ INCH AREA A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE)...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT GIVEN THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE
ENSEMBLES)... INCLUDING A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN AS PER THE
700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. THE MESOSCALE MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 222078 225083 231085 239087 245090 250092 255096 264102
      268106 274110 278114 286117 292117 298116 309114 314116
      320115 326112 330114 332117 338126 344136 346138 348139
      352133 351123 354120 354116 353113 353108 355104 359101
      370100 378100 381100 383097 387094 392091 399083 408073
      418065 418057 415052 415043 414040 414036 407026 404026
      401028 398034 389040 378044 374043 370041 365041 360045
      355049 350052 343052 337053 330053 327057 321060 319062
      315062 307063 301062 295060 289060 284063 271062 267061
      264059 259055 250050 238047 225052
 0.01 558927 558918 558908 556903 556895 554889 551884 547873
      544869 542871 538872 533875 525880 516884 485902 478906
      470907 466909 461910 455907 446901 441897 437893 434890
      430887 427882 421872 419864 419855 421842 427841 432843
      435845 438848 442855 456860 459862 462859 465849 464836
      460829 457825 453822 446818 442816 437815 428812 424810
      420809 420805 420799 421796 420794 418788 417781 419769
      425753 423751 419750 416749 415743 413738 412737 405743
      391756 387758 381760 370762 358765 352766 348769 340776
      334785 323801 317805 312807 310809 306809 303807 300806
      302805 305802 305799 302796 299796 290798 286797 285795
      288794 291788 296779 301772 308765 312756 313752 312745
      307737 303734 297734 292738 289742 285749 282756 279767
      278775 278784 276787 273785 270783 269787 267791 262792
      258794 254798 252801 251806 250810 253814 256818 260820
      268826 268835 274847 276850 276855 277869 277882 273890
      269896 265902 262911 260915 260919 264923 270925 275925
      286925 292926 293932 294939 291944 286954 284958 281962
      277965 272966 260968 255970 253974 254978 257981 266980
      275981 279981 284979 291977 303969 306966 308961 311952
      312940 313932 314927 316921 315913 312901 308890 306886
      307882 307875 306871 303862 304859 307859 306854 308845
      313838 320833 324830 329830 331831 334832 333835 334839
      336840 336843 334845 334852 336856 341857 346855 349851
      355843 359839 362837 366837 369836 371838 375841 381846
      387850 390855 391859 395861 399860 402860 404865 401868
      403873 404877 407881 412887 416891 422900 429905 438911
      445916 447916 448919 447928 447933 444938 426949 424961
      423967 426971 426975 424978 421982 420986 419989 420993
      420996 422999 424002 429009 435016 442021 445024 449025
 0.01 449025 457030 462033 459039 457042 457049 457067 459078
      460083 460086 459089 457091 455093 453093 448094 443094
      439135 435145 432153 435157 437161 440166 439170 432169
      427169 424173 413194 408201 402209 401214 402218 404222
      407225 412235 420240 426242 430241 434233 441231 451230
      465226 474222 478221 483222 485221 488221 494223 496223
      498219 499214 498208 495204 486202 481206 477208 473208
      464210 460211 456208 455206 456202 459198 468192 482184
      487178 490175 494174 502172 505175 508180 511184 513189
      517194 520196 523194 525190 533186 536184 538181 540176
      541170 541156 538143 534133 530129 525126 518122 516120
      515116 516112 524094 527080 528073 527068 519061 516057
      513050 506032 518020 530004 533998 536992 540981 543973
      548964 552955 555941 558927
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 369736 368732 367730 363731 357732 352735 344741 341744
      338748 331755 328759 329764 334767 338767 345766 348763
      354762 357759 363749 365744 367740 369736
 0.01 275003 274000 271998 266996 256988 252983 246980 240979
      235982 232989 232997 232001 234004 238008 249014 261019
      266019 267017 263014 259013 260010 264007 273005 275003
 0.25 538944 536919 534908 532906 528905 518906 511911 505916
      499919 490922 480923 473927 469932 464942 461953 462959
      467965 470966 470969 471974 465981 462989 462993 463996
      481002 488006 490008 492013 485017 482021 481026 478049
      481052 485050 490039 493031 498024 504021 511014 516008
      519999 523991 529982 533975 535965 538944
 0.25 521149 522143 521138 517131 513126 510119 510114 510107
      512096 512087 511079 509076 505074 498071 490061 487059
      483060 482063 483068 487074 489081 488086 486090 482096
      473105 468110 462114 458118 455125 451131 446138 438148
      443151 452152 463147 474140 486145 500152 506155 513155
      521149
 0.25 455186 456180 456174 453172 450173 445177 441183 436189
      432195 430201 433205 437206 438209 445210 449205 452196
      455186
 0.25 400062 402058 398055 392057 382061 376060 370057 364056
      360058 352067 348070 344072 338075 334079 326087 317093
      314097 312103 312107 314108 320108 326106 332107 339117
      342102 345097 349092 359089 365086 369087 372088 376091
      379090 393071 400062
 0.25 391780 390780 388780 387781 386782 385782 383784 381785
      380787 382788 383788 384788 385787 387786 388785 388784
      390783 390782 391780
 0.25 388799 385796 379797 374795 368796 362803 355804 351802
      347804 347806 348813 350817 352824 354826 358825 361823
      365818 368813 374806 377801 379803 383805 387802 388799
 0.25 305752 306748 304744 302743 298744 297746 296750 295752
      295756 297760 299761 302760 304758 305755 305752
 0.25 311824 305821 299818 293816 290813 286812 280813 275811
      273812 275816 278822 283819 289820 294824 298826 302827
      311825 311824
 0.25 301903 299899 295897 296891 298888 300882 300876 297871
      294870 289878 283885 278895 275900 274904 274908 277910
      281910 286914 290915 293910 298910 301903
 0.25 292087 292081 288079 279077 269076 259076 257077 257080
      259083 266088 268091 265093 265095 266097 270099 277104
      282103 284099 283094 285092 290090 292087
 0.25 295851 295845 294840 291836 288833 286830 282827 279827
      280834 281838 283842 285846 287850 290854 294853 295851
 0.25 268806 267804 265802 263801 261801 261800 259800 257801
      257803 258805 260807 262808 263808 265808 267808 268806
 0.25 253006 253004 253003 252002 251001 249000 247999 246998
      244997 242998 240999 240000 240002 242003 243004 244004
      245005 247006 249006 251006 253007 253006
 0.50 531947 533936 531926 530920 526915 518919 509921 487929
      477934 471942 469948 468957 471961 476964 478969 475976
      470984 469989 471992 474993 483997 488999 494001 503000
      510001 511996 515986 523976 528968 530963 531955 531947
 0.50 509141 510134 508128 504122 502111 501106 502101 504088
      500087 498088 492094 487099 476111 466122 459128 455134
      453139 456141 458140 463137 470133 476134 485138 492142
      500145 504145 507144 509141
 0.50 446199 448197 448194 448192 447191 445191 444194 444196
      444198 444199 446199 446199
 0.50 381076 381074 380070 378068 376066 373064 371064 369064
      366065 364067 365072 365074 367077 370079 372081 375082
      379082 381078 381076
 0.50 369802 369801 367802 367804 369803 369802
 0.50 341096 341094 341091 340089 340087 341086 342085 341083
      339083 338084 337085 336086 336088 336091 335092 335093
      334095 333097 334099 335099 336100 337099 338098 338097
      340096 341096
 0.50 329103 328102 328100 327099 325098 323098 321099 320099
      319100 319101 318103 319105 321105 322104 323104 325104
      327103 328103 329103
 0.50 296882 294882 294883 296883 296882
 0.50 291891 291887 287887 285889 284893 282896 281898 280900
      280904 281906 284908 286909 288908 289904 289902 290897
      291893 291891
 1.00 523947 522942 519939 514934 507930 503930 501932 489943
      481946 475949 473954 476959 482962 485964 487969 486976
      483979 481984 483988 485990 489990 494988 499988 502986
      504982 507974 512968 518962 520959 520952 523947
 1.50 499962 499954 497952 492952 491952 487952 482953 479952
      479955 482957 484957 487959 491963 494967 496967 499963
      499962

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER STORMS FORMED DURING THE AFTN ACRS
LOWER MI ON THE ERN END OF WEAK CLOSED CIRC.  WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POCKETS OF MDT TO
SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF SRN MI
INTO NRN OH AS LATE EVENING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON CAPE ENERGY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING STATES BORDERING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SBCAPES BUT WITH DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS ..WEAK
INFLOW JET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WELL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

01Z UPDATE...
AS THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..THOUGH SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBDD IN
SSWLY UPR FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS UPR RIDGE AND
MOIST/CONFLUENT 85H-7H SLY FLOW.



JAMES/BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032103
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPATE...
ANY CHANGES TO PRELIM GUIDANCE WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND MAINLY
FOR 1ST PD BASED ON SATL/RADAR TRENDS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BOTTOM
OUT ACROSS OREGON BY THE START OF DAY 2 (FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING) WITH PEAK 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.  A WEAKNESS COL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/HIGH N-S SHEAR GRADIENT AND EASTERN SIDE SPEED MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE A WEDGE
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MT.   GIVEN THE
TOPOGRAPHY/QPF TOTALS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
CONFIDENCE...THERE WERE THOUGHTS OF INTRODUCING A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT GIVEN MORE SYNOPTIC ASCENTS/COOLER
ENVIRONMENTS AND LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL DID NOT DO SO AT
THIS TIME.  BY MID-DAY 2 THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE A STRONGER
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AIDING TO DRAW BACK A MATURING CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC
LEAF) WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX ON 25-30KT 850MB SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE TPWS OVER 1.0"...WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE/JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ND SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD COMING OUT OF
CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.   THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
AGREES WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION OF THE COMMA HEAD AND
CONVEYOR BELT EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A 1.25-1.75" AREAL AVERAGE FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
DAY 3.  SOME OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS RUNS WERE MORE
ROBUST WITH TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FLUX BUT MORE RANDOM IN
NATURE...AS SUCH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS MUCH
OF THE COMMA HEAD AND CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA/FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE DRAWS A WEAK TROPICAL
CONNECTION PULLING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES OUT OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY LEADING TO HEIGHT
FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG 25-30KT LLJ
TAPPING 1.75-2.0" TPWS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  STRONG CONVERGENCE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BOARDER.  PER PMDHMD...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
MIDDLE GROUND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE AND IS FAVORED WITHIN
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL...WITH HIGH TOTALS/RATES
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FFG...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA FOR DAY 2.

FOR DAY 3...A WEAKER LESS FOCUSED SHORTWAVE IT DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE THE DAKOTAS WHILE PHASING WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTING TROF.
 THIS AND STRONG WESTERLY DOWN SLOPING FLOW AIDS THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY OCCLUDING.  THIS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (40-50 KTS) AHEAD OF A STRONGLY FORMED COLD FRONT...LEADS
TO A CORRIDOR OF 1.75-2.0" TPWS AND SOLID INSTABILITIES IN EXCESS
OF 2500 J/KG TO DEVELOP VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH VERY STRONG RAIN RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SUCH A SLIGHT RISK COVERS MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF THE READ RIVER GIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY TO
BE DRAWN OVER THE OCCLUSION.


CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST....

WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...FILLS THE VACANCY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND CUTOFF ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST.   THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BRINGS
A SHOT OF DRIER AIR WITH TOTAL PWATS OF 1.25" CENTRALLY LOCATED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2.  ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DRY CYCLONE...A NARROW BAND OF INCREASE
MOISTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICE FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING TO MORE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555927 540922 537923 534925 528932 523939 517938
      511938 508936 497937 483945 462952 458962 454971 448983
      442987 426992 421993 416993 412994 410996 397007 394009
      390013 385021 382024 382030 381036 382042 341052 337053
      331053 328055 330058 341059 343060 344062 342067 335070
      326074 312077 308079 302079 295078 291075 278071 275069
      272064 267059 259055 256056 253061 252067 250071 241074
      241080 242084 247089 253094 266105 272110 278114 300116
      303123 306127 311129 314131 319132 326133 330132 333129
      337124 346125 351123 354120 358110 359105 362100 368102
      377101 384097 391092 396087 403079 409072 417067 418060
      416054 413049 409046 401041 397035 399031 402026 411022
      416022 419021 425021 428023 433025 435028 437031 440029
      446022 449020 454020 463021 467021 467028 466036 465040
      456062 457074 460084 462090 462095 460097 450094 446092
      442091 439095 437100 439105 436109 435112 436118 436119
      439118 440120 440127 439132 438134 429147 425151 420154
      413161 412164 413167 413171 414172 419170 426165 430161
      434158 436163 440163 443164 446167 445170 442170 437171
      434169 431170 427170 424173 420181 410198 402212 401215
      402218 405224 408227 410231 413236 417237 419240 428242
      432239 431234 434232 439232 447230 456229 465227 471222
      478222 480224 479227 476229 470233 466237 479247 482258
      486266 490276 493280 494283 497284 503286 506282 506275
      506269 504262 502259 498249 494244 492240 486233 482229
      483226 486225 488224 493226 493231 496236 501245 505251
      508260 510265 513269 516270 520266 523262 524256 525253
      528235 530219 535207 537202 538193 539186 538180 540168
      541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 524122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509094 510086 511069 509063 506060 498056
      495055 494053 495048 498043 501039 514025 519018 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552971 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 469160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 428255 432259 440264 444266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 447803 443799 440798 436798 431797 425798 417799
      413799 411797 412794 414791 414787 415781 413778 414775
      416772 420765 423758 421754 415748 413746 414741 420730
      426720 428712 427707 424706 421706 418704 416700 411702
      406707 392734 391739 391741 393746 393750 381757 375760
      367761 360763 357762 355759 318722 311718 307718 303723
      300729 297734 292737 286747 283753 282756 281760 279767
      279774 275778 267781 263784 261786 260789 260795 260797
      258798 253799 251805 251811 254815 258819 265820 271822
      270827 269830 269836 272843 276849 281854 284856 288857
      292857 295853 294843 293840 294836 297835 299837 300846
      300852 302858 306858 306849 307843 311836 315830 326820
      333809 340799 350790 354789 357790 359794 359798 356805
      354811 348820 344826 340833 338839 336841 334840 333829
      327827 322831 322835 324838 325849 325858 323864 322867
      324869 328872 330870 333872 340880 345884 351884 354882
      354878 351871 346865 341859 351851 356846 363843 365841
      369841 373845 387863 393867 397874 400882 403887 407895
      411903 419912 424919 428922 433924 439926 443926 445923
      447918 447913 445910 444903 441894 437887 430871 428863
      431859 435859 441857 445856 446853 450843 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 315914 314905 312899 305873 300870 295869 289871
      284871 278879 274885 272890 271903 271912 273917 280926
      281929 285929 286928 289929 290937 288942 285947 282954
      279959 278965 277972 281975 286973 289970 293965 296960
      303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264994 262992
      254986 250976 241972 236975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 545948 542943 538943 536944 530949 520955 516955
      511960 505961 498961 491962 484964 475971 469975 465979
      457988 452993 448000 450003 455003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 518005 527994 534984
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535167 534163 532155 528137 523133 516130 511126
      505120 502114 502104 502093 499085 496082 492083 488088
      484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451126 444140 440148
      445152 451151 457148 468142 474139 480137 491137 497142
      501148 505154 510159 514164 520170 526179 530179 531177
      534174
 0.25 445005 444004 444002 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006
      442007 443007 444005 445005
 0.25 434830 433825 431821 429817 425816 418818 408821 404822
      401825 395830 394834 393840 394847 395853 398860 403869
      411883 415889 418893 422895 426893 426888 423878 420869
      419862 420856 424850 426845 427841 428836 430834 434830
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400057 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394792 394787 390783 384784 380788 377792 372796
      368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804 390801
      393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 343113 341109 342104 344098 345087 346083 345080
      340080 338081 333084 329091 324092 318091 314095 309100
      307107 309113 311116 314117 317119 320119 319116 320112
      326109 332109 336113 346118
 0.25 315770 313765 310759 309745 305742 302741 298742 295747
      294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784 281789 283796
      285798 288798 296798 302796 306792 312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303904 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 277902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 296816 293813 287808 284805 280804 269805 259804
      254805 256810 259813 263815 272816 279820 287823 290825
      294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290084 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284101 283097 282095 278092 278091 283090 288088
      288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 535958 530959 522962 515965 509972 506973 503970
      496967 489970 482975 476980 474985 472991 475995 480996
      485997 488000 493006 496009 500011 504011 507009 515004
      519999 525991 534973 538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497102 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455139 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493123 496118
 0.50 423829 422828 422827 420827 418827 417827 416828 415829
      413830 414832 414833 416835 417835 418835 419834 420832
      421832 422830 423829
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 416877
      414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886 418887
      420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 409866 408861 406855 405850 404845 403839 400836 398839
      398846 399853 401857 403860 405864 408866 409866
 0.50 341093 340092 340091 339089 339087 337087 336089 336091
      335093 335095 334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095
      341093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980 482984
      484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001 515996
      520987 522981

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 222078 225083 230085 238087 245090 251091 256092 262090
      265090 267091 278097 285100 289100 292098 294097 298097
      303099 310101 316104 326110 336120 341124 346125 349120
      351115 353105 356100 360094 366091 369096 374100 377101
      383097 386092 390088 396085 401079 404074 407070 410065
      414061 415051 415043 414035 412031 409028 406026 404026
      402028 398034 394036 388040 383042 376043 369041 366041
      363042 359045 357047 355047 355038 351035 345036 339038
      333042 329045 325050 325055 325058 323059 320061 316062
      311063 303062 295060 290060 285062 277063 275064 271062
      266060 261057 256054 250049 242042 238039 233036 230038
      228041 225048
 0.01 559883 558875 557867 554856 554843 553829 550824 547822
      543818 539818 528819 519826 514831 507836 498848 491858
      485864 477870 474872 469873 447875 444876 445881 446885
      449889 455896 461905 460908 457908 453906 445901 440895
      437893 434890 426875 424870 423866 424863 428861 429856
      432846 433840 436835 439827 436825 430826 425826 423827
      420825 416818 412813 408810 395810 390800 395791 400784
      402779 402774 397770 392770 389772 360787 362774 369768
      372761 373756 371752 364726 364718 361712 354705 344708
      343710 344717 343724 344730 344737 343742 334757 330763
      327770 323780 320789 317793 314795 303797 297797 294793
      291788 289786 290782 291770 296761 300754 302743 302739
      303735 303729 303725 303721 299717 296715 292714 280721
      277726 274728 269736 264753 263758 260762 256773 248791
      246795 246800 243808 243814 244821 249829 255834 261841
      262844 263850 264860 265865 266872 266885 267896 263904
      258912 253922 243939 239947 234953 233967 233971 237974
      244976 250976 250974 255974 259972 268973 279974 283974
      289973 294968 298960 301956 305954 309950 310945 311938
      312933 315927 319924 327924 329922 326920 330924 332924
      328919 321905 316897 314893 315888 318877 323869 329864
      333861 338861 350860 355857 358853 364846 374840 383841
      389841 396841 401845 400850 401857 401864 402868 404874
      407878 415891 427907 430909 435909 443913 448921 450925
      448928 445929 443932 439940 430946 428949 426953 424961
      420970 418981 406996 416010 420013 422011 424011 431004
 0.01 431004 433002 436002 441002 444003 445005 442009 440013
      437018 433023 430027 431030 433038 435040 440041 445041
      448044 453049 456053 458057 456071 454075 452073 447067
      445070 444075 448077 448082 445091 442095 438095 430097
      423103 419104 417102 410098 407095 403095 397101 393107
      394115 404116 409115 415116 417119 418123 420132 419139
      417144 415153 410164 409168 411171 415179 416182 415186
      412190 407196 405198 404203 401213 404220 410214 419217
      437226 445228 448226 450222 451214 451207 454204 456199
      459197 464192 470185 473181 476179 483177 490175 497172
      501168 508163 515161 522157 523151 524142 525130 528122
      530117 531111 532096 533087 534082 535069 535055 534046
      534038 533016 532008 534003 534989 539980 542977 543973
      548965 550960 552955 554944 556936 558923 558908 557902
      557892 559883
 0.01 275003 273998 268997 263995 260992 253985 250981 246979
      240979 236981 233986 232991 232999 233003 240010 245012
      251013 256012 260010 264007 269006 273005 275003
 0.25 548903 548894 548887 545875 543869 541862 540855 537850
      533847 529849 524855 519863 514870 508877 503885 497894
      490902 479915 469930 464932 461937 458946 457952 451953
      446950 442954 438956 435959 431966 431974 433977 442974
      450971 458968 466973 469977 472983 472995 468003 467017
      467033 469045 470051 470057 471066 473070 476074 477082
      476088 473092 469098 463098 460100 458103 456109 451120
      447128 445134 443141 443149 444157 445162 444168 442173
      440176 433182 428190 426197 426205 428208 433210 438208
      443205 449197 452194 455189 460183 462178 463173 465166
      467162 474156 478155 483157 489158 494158 499157 502154
      510151 514143 515138 515132 514119 515101 517086 519071
      517064 514059 512049 510037 509023 511009 513002 516997
      521990 527982 533972 537964 539954 544928 547914 548903
 0.25 385074 386071 385068 382066 373063 365059 359060 354069
      350077 353077 356075 360073 365073 370079 374084 377085
      380083 383079 385074
 0.25 369802 368798 365799 361802 358806 354807 350807 343803
      339800 336795 332793 328795 322806 316813 308819 299816
      285815 279816 275814 269807 267800 264796 260797 257803
      254806 255812 257815 261818 265821 269824 272828 274835
      280842 285852 287858 290861 293866 291869 288870 283877
      281882 279888 280895 282899 288897 291892 296882 300880
      301876 299871 296872 295870 294866 295863 297866 300867
      304865 308865 311861 311856 311848 312841 317830 320828
      325826 329827 334830 341837 346840 352840 358832 362823
      367811 369802
 0.25 359756 360752 359747 357743 355742 351743 349745 348747
      347752 347754 347758 348763 350764 351764 354762 355761
      357759 359756
 0.25 342080 343078 343076 342075 340075 339076 338077 337078
      336079 336080 335082 335084 335086 337087 339087 340085
      340082 341081 342080
 0.25 288734 288733 286733 284734 284735 283736 282737 281739
      281740 281742 281744 282746 284744 284743 285741 287739
      287737 288735 288734
 0.25 254071 251065 249060 245056 241053 236050 232050 230052
      230058 233063 235067 240071 245074 252073 254071
 0.50 540909 540900 539895 538887 537879 535874 532871 528873
      525876 518883 512892 510896 506899 500905 490924 476933
      470940 468948 469954 471959 474962 482966 486970 488974
      494983 496987 496994 496998 494000 490002 485002 482005
      480009 478018 477024 477031 477044 478053 479057 487064
      490066 495068 498065 501060 504048 504039 504032 502019
      498008 497002 500998 508992 514986 520980 525972 531961
      535950 537939 540923 540909
 0.50 509141 509135 508130 505122 502103 501100 496099 490100
      478105 471108 468109 466112 463120 460128 459134 458138
      457144 459147 466144 473143 480145 486146 490148 495149
      501147 506144 509141
 0.50 454179 454171 451170 449171 447177 446183 441185 437188
      434195 433198 435200 440197 443193 447187 450183 454179
 0.50 442966 442964 442962 441961 440961 439961 438963 438964
      436966 438968 440968 442966 442966
 0.50 348816 347813 346813 344813 343814 344816 345817 346817
      348816
 0.50 268816 268814 267812 266811 265810 264809 263809 262807
      261807 260806 258806 257807 256809 257811 258813 259813
      260815 261815 262816 264817 266817 268817 268816
 0.50 245064 244063 243062 242061 241060 241059 239058 237057
      236057 235057 235059 236061 237062 238063 238064 240065
      242065 244065 245064
 1.00 531931 530919 528912 525912 521915 516918 510924 505926
      494935 489942 484945 480947 479950 481958 483960 487962
      492966 494970 496974 502977 506976 509974 514969 519965
      523959 527951 530943 531931
 1.00 493132 491130 490130 488131 487129 487126 487124 485123
      483125 484128 485129 486130 487131 488132 489134 491134
      492134 493132
 1.50 524944 521940 518939 515939 512942 510947 506949 499949
      491951 487953 486957 488956 491957 495960 497965 499968
      503967 509962 517957 521949 524944

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 462329 464325 467318 468314 471309 473305 476299 478295
      481291 483289 487287 491288 495288 500289 503292 506295
      510299 527252 523244 516235 511228 508224 505218 501212
      495208 491206 483204 477204 473205 469205 465207 459217
      451237 446248 446252 448256 451257 452260 450264 445277
      443282 441286 439300 441306 443304 450297 450304 449310
      447323
 0.01 567983 567977 566969 566952 563925 562909 562902 561898
      561893 560878 557868 551840 546807 545792 543785 541781
      537768 533758 529748 528742 525737 524730 522727 518719
      506706 504704 503710 501719 499726 497732 495743 491771
      489783 488794 483819 480829 477834 472835 466839 463841
      460846 455852 448858 440863 436863 433866 430876 439880
      443882 446889 443895 439899 424907 415912 408917 405919
      400920 392923 373927 353927 337923 332923 328920 323913
      320906 319891 320885 323880 326875 330872 336864 340861
      344859 351854 360850 375842 379835 381830 380826 377818
      375814 372812 367813 362815 356820 347827 343830 337832
      327829 325823 324821 325818 330811 336804 351794 354792
      359790 369789 371786 372781 372774 372767 372762 373757
      375748 377742 377737 377732 376726 373721 368718 366717
      364717 357718 353720 350720 346721 344725 337733 334735
      331733 317724 310719 303717 294717 288719 283722 275725
      266728 256734 252742 246763 246773 248787 248793 250796
      243801 242811 242815 244820 247828 247834 249838 254858
      257867 260875 267893 272903 278912 284919 288927 290932
      290937 292941 292947 288956 288962 292962 297957 304952
      310948 320944 328943 333941 338941 361940 371936 385936
      395936 400938 401943 401950 399955 394965 391974 389979
      389986 396986 403981 406979 407982 405989 405993 409998
      413998 416996 425993 437991 445989 453993 460997 463001
      465006 469019 466025 464033 462042 460050 457052
 0.01 457052 450057 446059 443063 440070 439076 444085 443091
      439092 428091 425096 429101 432104 428110 428114 430118
      434117 440118 441122 440126 439134 438139 437141 436150
      436156 438161 443162 447166 449171 452174 466178 472178
      476177 484176 489174 494172 497171 500175 514191 522198
      526198 525190 523185 520181 514173 511167 508163 507160
      507156 510149 512143 516141 524137 533134 540129 546120
      550109 554095 557078 559072 559063 561048 561036 563029
      564010 567983
 0.01 418081 418076 417073 412073 406073 406077 407079 406083
      404086 400090 397094 403095 406093 410087 414085 418081
 0.01 414844 414837 412833 408833 405836 402838 398841 396844
      395846 399849 402851 408850 411847 414844 414844
 0.01 403827 402822 399818 397816 393814 389812 386813 387817
      388822 392826 394828 398830 401830 403827
 0.01 377078 378076 374075 369070 367070 366065 362065 357069
      353073 351077 354077 360074 365072 367074 370075 372077
      376078 377078
 0.01 225056 229065 235070 238073 241076 250081 259085 266090
      285098 294100 305102 311103 316102 320100 323102 321104
      319108 321106 326107 327102 331104 333108 337111 341109
      345100 347096 348092 345081 342072 340067 339060 340047
      343041 346037 346032 346028 348024 350020 351015 351011
      345011 337014 334017 330023 326031 322038 316046 310053
      307057 303059 295062 285065 280064 273063 238049 233051
      227050
 0.01 302781 301766 299759 297754 290748 284748 277751 276754
      274760 272770 270783 270788 270792 273793 282795 287797
      294796 298793 300787 302781
 0.25 520270 511260 508253 507248 508246 507243 505241 501240
      497238 494245 492246 490247 488244 485238 479234 476234
      474236 473240 475243 479248 486247 490252 493260 495266
      500272 501279 505287 507288 508285 507281 510280 513288
 0.25 546057 547045 546034 544013 536971 531927 528902 529881
      530867 528855 526847 521841 519839 517842 513848 506853
      501860 490867 477867 473870 472874 469883 463900 457917
      455923 450929 439942 435947 432957 431966 433974 437978
      444977 459980 466983 469986 472991 474999 475008 475020
      473029 469048 465055 459063 453066 451069 452072 453076
      453083 452093 452100 453104 452114 450119 450127 453135
      458142 462143 465142 473143 479145 482147 486146 490141
      493137 497134 503129 513124 519121 524115 534102 537096
      541086 545073 546057
 0.25 362751 362747 361743 358739 353736 347739 343742 338747
      336752 333756 327768 324780 323786 323790 326792 331793
      337790 341786 345781 351772 357762 362751
 0.25 308863 309857 308852 305842 301836 295831 289826 281825
      274826 265825 260821 257818 254818 258824 260828 263831
      272843 280856 285862 290869 293877 294882 296882 299874
      303867 308863
 0.25 289077 289076 287075 285076 284076 283077 283078 285079
      285078 287078 289077 289077
 0.50 538064 539053 539042 539034 538024 536015 534007 528992
      521979 518973 516965 516959 517953 518942 519933 517923
      517912 518904 520896 521887 521881 519878 515874 509875
      503879 497883 492884 487882 483883 480884 473895 467912
      462925 456937 447947 443954 441961 438968 441972 454974
      463975 469978 475989 480995 482002 482011 481019 477035
      475045 471054 468061 465067 460081 457090 456095 457098
      458101 459106 459116 459126 465128 471131 476134 480132
      484133 488126 494121 498117 503115 513108 522099 526094
      530087 534077 538064
 0.50 353753 353748 350748 349749 347752 346755 344757 343761
      343763 344765 347766 348763 350761 351758 352755 353753
 0.50 299853 298847 296843 294839 291836 288833 284832 278833
      278838 279842 282846 285850 287853 289856 292857 295855
      298854 299853
 1.00 527065 528057 529048 528040 525034 522023 519017 515014
      511014 507016 500023 489041 485052 481066 477076 474082
      471087 465094 463099 466103 469108 474110 479109 483108
      492104 496102 500098 506092 514086 521080 524074 526068
      527065
 1.00 487924 485919 481920 472927 469932 466940 459949 456953
      453959 449964 450966 452966 462961 469961 474964 480964
      485959 487957 486952 484946 484937 486929 487924
 1.00 475972 474969 474968 472969 472970 473972 474973 475972
 1.50 515066 515061 513058 509057 506058 502059 498057 496056
      493058 489066 486073 484083 485087 488089 494087 500084
      505078 509072 514068 515066

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 032103
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPATE...
ANY CHANGES TO PRELIM GUIDANCE WERE RELATIVELY MINOR AND MAINLY
FOR 1ST PD BASED ON SATL/RADAR TRENDS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BOTTOM
OUT ACROSS OREGON BY THE START OF DAY 2 (FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING) WITH PEAK 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.  A WEAKNESS COL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/HIGH N-S SHEAR GRADIENT AND EASTERN SIDE SPEED MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE A WEDGE
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MT.   GIVEN THE
TOPOGRAPHY/QPF TOTALS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
CONFIDENCE...THERE WERE THOUGHTS OF INTRODUCING A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT GIVEN MORE SYNOPTIC ASCENTS/COOLER
ENVIRONMENTS AND LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL DID NOT DO SO AT
THIS TIME.  BY MID-DAY 2 THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE A STRONGER
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AIDING TO DRAW BACK A MATURING CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC
LEAF) WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX ON 25-30KT 850MB SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE TPWS OVER 1.0"...WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE/JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ND SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD COMING OUT OF
CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.   THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
AGREES WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION OF THE COMMA HEAD AND
CONVEYOR BELT EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A 1.25-1.75" AREAL AVERAGE FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
DAY 3.  SOME OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS RUNS WERE MORE
ROBUST WITH TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FLUX BUT MORE RANDOM IN
NATURE...AS SUCH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS MUCH
OF THE COMMA HEAD AND CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA/FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE DRAWS A WEAK TROPICAL
CONNECTION PULLING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES OUT OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY LEADING TO HEIGHT
FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG 25-30KT LLJ
TAPPING 1.75-2.0" TPWS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  STRONG CONVERGENCE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BOARDER.  PER PMDHMD...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
MIDDLE GROUND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE AND IS FAVORED WITHIN
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL...WITH HIGH TOTALS/RATES
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FFG...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA FOR DAY 2.

FOR DAY 3...A WEAKER LESS FOCUSED SHORTWAVE IT DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE THE DAKOTAS WHILE PHASING WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTING TROF.
 THIS AND STRONG WESTERLY DOWN SLOPING FLOW AIDS THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY OCCLUDING.  THIS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (40-50 KTS) AHEAD OF A STRONGLY FORMED COLD FRONT...LEADS
TO A CORRIDOR OF 1.75-2.0" TPWS AND SOLID INSTABILITIES IN EXCESS
OF 2500 J/KG TO DEVELOP VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH VERY STRONG RAIN RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SUCH A SLIGHT RISK COVERS MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF THE READ RIVER GIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY TO
BE DRAWN OVER THE OCCLUSION.


CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST....

WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...FILLS THE VACANCY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND CUTOFF ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST.   THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BRINGS
A SHOT OF DRIER AIR WITH TOTAL PWATS OF 1.25" CENTRALLY LOCATED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2.  ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DRY CYCLONE...A NARROW BAND OF INCREASE
MOISTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICE FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING TO MORE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555927 540922 537923 534925 528932 523939 517938
      511938 508936 497937 483945 462952 458962 454971 448983
      442987 426992 421993 416993 412994 410996 397007 394009
      390013 385021 382024 382030 381036 382042 341052 337053
      331053 328055 330058 341059 343060 344062 342067 335070
      326074 312077 308079 302079 295078 291075 278071 275069
      272064 267059 259055 256056 253061 252067 250071 241074
      241080 242084 247089 253094 266105 272110 278114 300116
      303123 306127 311129 314131 319132 326133 330132 333129
      337124 346125 351123 354120 358110 359105 362100 368102
      377101 384097 391092 396087 403079 409072 417067 418060
      416054 413049 409046 401041 397035 399031 402026 411022
      416022 419021 425021 428023 433025 435028 437031 440029
      446022 449020 454020 463021 467021 467028 466036 465040
      456062 457074 460084 462090 462095 460097 450094 446092
      442091 439095 437100 439105 436109 435112 436118 436119
      439118 440120 440127 439132 438134 429147 425151 420154
      413161 412164 413167 413171 414172 419170 426165 430161
      434158 436163 440163 443164 446167 445170 442170 437171
      434169 431170 427170 424173 420181 410198 402212 401215
      402218 405224 408227 410231 413236 417237 419240 428242
      432239 431234 434232 439232 447230 456229 465227 471222
      478222 480224 479227 476229 470233 466237 479247 482258
      486266 490276 493280 494283 497284 503286 506282 506275
      506269 504262 502259 498249 494244 492240 486233 482229
      483226 486225 488224 493226 493231 496236 501245 505251
      508260 510265 513269 516270 520266 523262 524256 525253
      528235 530219 535207 537202 538193 539186 538180 540168
      541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 524122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509094 510086 511069 509063 506060 498056
      495055 494053 495048 498043 501039 514025 519018 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552971 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 469160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 428255 432259 440264 444266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 447803 443799 440798 436798 431797 425798 417799
      413799 411797 412794 414791 414787 415781 413778 414775
      416772 420765 423758 421754 415748 413746 414741 420730
      426720 428712 427707 424706 421706 418704 416700 411702
      406707 392734 391739 391741 393746 393750 381757 375760
      367761 360763 357762 355759 318722 311718 307718 303723
      300729 297734 292737 286747 283753 282756 281760 279767
      279774 275778 267781 263784 261786 260789 260795 260797
      258798 253799 251805 251811 254815 258819 265820 271822
      270827 269830 269836 272843 276849 281854 284856 288857
      292857 295853 294843 293840 294836 297835 299837 300846
      300852 302858 306858 306849 307843 311836 315830 326820
      333809 340799 350790 354789 357790 359794 359798 356805
      354811 348820 344826 340833 338839 336841 334840 333829
      327827 322831 322835 324838 325849 325858 323864 322867
      324869 328872 330870 333872 340880 345884 351884 354882
      354878 351871 346865 341859 351851 356846 363843 365841
      369841 373845 387863 393867 397874 400882 403887 407895
      411903 419912 424919 428922 433924 439926 443926 445923
      447918 447913 445910 444903 441894 437887 430871 428863
      431859 435859 441857 445856 446853 450843 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 315914 314905 312899 305873 300870 295869 289871
      284871 278879 274885 272890 271903 271912 273917 280926
      281929 285929 286928 289929 290937 288942 285947 282954
      279959 278965 277972 281975 286973 289970 293965 296960
      303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264994 262992
      254986 250976 241972 236975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 545948 542943 538943 536944 530949 520955 516955
      511960 505961 498961 491962 484964 475971 469975 465979
      457988 452993 448000 450003 455003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 518005 527994 534984
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535167 534163 532155 528137 523133 516130 511126
      505120 502114 502104 502093 499085 496082 492083 488088
      484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451126 444140 440148
      445152 451151 457148 468142 474139 480137 491137 497142
      501148 505154 510159 514164 520170 526179 530179 531177
      534174
 0.25 445005 444004 444002 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006
      442007 443007 444005 445005
 0.25 434830 433825 431821 429817 425816 418818 408821 404822
      401825 395830 394834 393840 394847 395853 398860 403869
      411883 415889 418893 422895 426893 426888 423878 420869
      419862 420856 424850 426845 427841 428836 430834 434830
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400057 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394792 394787 390783 384784 380788 377792 372796
      368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804 390801
      393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 343113 341109 342104 344098 345087 346083 345080
      340080 338081 333084 329091 324092 318091 314095 309100
      307107 309113 311116 314117 317119 320119 319116 320112
      326109 332109 336113 346118
 0.25 315770 313765 310759 309745 305742 302741 298742 295747
      294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784 281789 283796
      285798 288798 296798 302796 306792 312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303904 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 277902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 296816 293813 287808 284805 280804 269805 259804
      254805 256810 259813 263815 272816 279820 287823 290825
      294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290084 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284101 283097 282095 278092 278091 283090 288088
      288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 535958 530959 522962 515965 509972 506973 503970
      496967 489970 482975 476980 474985 472991 475995 480996
      485997 488000 493006 496009 500011 504011 507009 515004
      519999 525991 534973 538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497102 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455139 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493123 496118
 0.50 423829 422828 422827 420827 418827 417827 416828 415829
      413830 414832 414833 416835 417835 418835 419834 420832
      421832 422830 423829
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 416877
      414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886 418887
      420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 409866 408861 406855 405850 404845 403839 400836 398839
      398846 399853 401857 403860 405864 408866 409866
 0.50 341093 340092 340091 339089 339087 337087 336089 336091
      335093 335095 334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095
      341093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980 482984
      484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001 515996
      520987 522981

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 222078 225083 230085 238087 245090 251091 256092 262090
      265090 267091 278097 285100 289100 292098 294097 298097
      303099 310101 316104 326110 336120 341124 346125 349120
      351115 353105 356100 360094 366091 369096 374100 377101
      383097 386092 390088 396085 401079 404074 407070 410065
      414061 415051 415043 414035 412031 409028 406026 404026
      402028 398034 394036 388040 383042 376043 369041 366041
      363042 359045 357047 355047 355038 351035 345036 339038
      333042 329045 325050 325055 325058 323059 320061 316062
      311063 303062 295060 290060 285062 277063 275064 271062
      266060 261057 256054 250049 242042 238039 233036 230038
      228041 225048
 0.01 559883 558875 557867 554856 554843 553829 550824 547822
      543818 539818 528819 519826 514831 507836 498848 491858
      485864 477870 474872 469873 447875 444876 445881 446885
      449889 455896 461905 460908 457908 453906 445901 440895
      437893 434890 426875 424870 423866 424863 428861 429856
      432846 433840 436835 439827 436825 430826 425826 423827
      420825 416818 412813 408810 395810 390800 395791 400784
      402779 402774 397770 392770 389772 360787 362774 369768
      372761 373756 371752 364726 364718 361712 354705 344708
      343710 344717 343724 344730 344737 343742 334757 330763
      327770 323780 320789 317793 314795 303797 297797 294793
      291788 289786 290782 291770 296761 300754 302743 302739
      303735 303729 303725 303721 299717 296715 292714 280721
      277726 274728 269736 264753 263758 260762 256773 248791
      246795 246800 243808 243814 244821 249829 255834 261841
      262844 263850 264860 265865 266872 266885 267896 263904
      258912 253922 243939 239947 234953 233967 233971 237974
      244976 250976 250974 255974 259972 268973 279974 283974
      289973 294968 298960 301956 305954 309950 310945 311938
      312933 315927 319924 327924 329922 326920 330924 332924
      328919 321905 316897 314893 315888 318877 323869 329864
      333861 338861 350860 355857 358853 364846 374840 383841
      389841 396841 401845 400850 401857 401864 402868 404874
      407878 415891 427907 430909 435909 443913 448921 450925
      448928 445929 443932 439940 430946 428949 426953 424961
      420970 418981 406996 416010 420013 422011 424011 431004
 0.01 431004 433002 436002 441002 444003 445005 442009 440013
      437018 433023 430027 431030 433038 435040 440041 445041
      448044 453049 456053 458057 456071 454075 452073 447067
      445070 444075 448077 448082 445091 442095 438095 430097
      423103 419104 417102 410098 407095 403095 397101 393107
      394115 404116 409115 415116 417119 418123 420132 419139
      417144 415153 410164 409168 411171 415179 416182 415186
      412190 407196 405198 404203 401213 404220 410214 419217
      437226 445228 448226 450222 451214 451207 454204 456199
      459197 464192 470185 473181 476179 483177 490175 497172
      501168 508163 515161 522157 523151 524142 525130 528122
      530117 531111 532096 533087 534082 535069 535055 534046
      534038 533016 532008 534003 534989 539980 542977 543973
      548965 550960 552955 554944 556936 558923 558908 557902
      557892 559883
 0.01 275003 273998 268997 263995 260992 253985 250981 246979
      240979 236981 233986 232991 232999 233003 240010 245012
      251013 256012 260010 264007 269006 273005 275003
 0.25 548903 548894 548887 545875 543869 541862 540855 537850
      533847 529849 524855 519863 514870 508877 503885 497894
      490902 479915 469930 464932 461937 458946 457952 451953
      446950 442954 438956 435959 431966 431974 433977 442974
      450971 458968 466973 469977 472983 472995 468003 467017
      467033 469045 470051 470057 471066 473070 476074 477082
      476088 473092 469098 463098 460100 458103 456109 451120
      447128 445134 443141 443149 444157 445162 444168 442173
      440176 433182 428190 426197 426205 428208 433210 438208
      443205 449197 452194 455189 460183 462178 463173 465166
      467162 474156 478155 483157 489158 494158 499157 502154
      510151 514143 515138 515132 514119 515101 517086 519071
      517064 514059 512049 510037 509023 511009 513002 516997
      521990 527982 533972 537964 539954 544928 547914 548903
 0.25 385074 386071 385068 382066 373063 365059 359060 354069
      350077 353077 356075 360073 365073 370079 374084 377085
      380083 383079 385074
 0.25 369802 368798 365799 361802 358806 354807 350807 343803
      339800 336795 332793 328795 322806 316813 308819 299816
      285815 279816 275814 269807 267800 264796 260797 257803
      254806 255812 257815 261818 265821 269824 272828 274835
      280842 285852 287858 290861 293866 291869 288870 283877
      281882 279888 280895 282899 288897 291892 296882 300880
      301876 299871 296872 295870 294866 295863 297866 300867
      304865 308865 311861 311856 311848 312841 317830 320828
      325826 329827 334830 341837 346840 352840 358832 362823
      367811 369802
 0.25 359756 360752 359747 357743 355742 351743 349745 348747
      347752 347754 347758 348763 350764 351764 354762 355761
      357759 359756
 0.25 342080 343078 343076 342075 340075 339076 338077 337078
      336079 336080 335082 335084 335086 337087 339087 340085
      340082 341081 342080
 0.25 288734 288733 286733 284734 284735 283736 282737 281739
      281740 281742 281744 282746 284744 284743 285741 287739
      287737 288735 288734
 0.25 254071 251065 249060 245056 241053 236050 232050 230052
      230058 233063 235067 240071 245074 252073 254071
 0.50 540909 540900 539895 538887 537879 535874 532871 528873
      525876 518883 512892 510896 506899 500905 490924 476933
      470940 468948 469954 471959 474962 482966 486970 488974
      494983 496987 496994 496998 494000 490002 485002 482005
      480009 478018 477024 477031 477044 478053 479057 487064
      490066 495068 498065 501060 504048 504039 504032 502019
      498008 497002 500998 508992 514986 520980 525972 531961
      535950 537939 540923 540909
 0.50 509141 509135 508130 505122 502103 501100 496099 490100
      478105 471108 468109 466112 463120 460128 459134 458138
      457144 459147 466144 473143 480145 486146 490148 495149
      501147 506144 509141
 0.50 454179 454171 451170 449171 447177 446183 441185 437188
      434195 433198 435200 440197 443193 447187 450183 454179
 0.50 442966 442964 442962 441961 440961 439961 438963 438964
      436966 438968 440968 442966 442966
 0.50 348816 347813 346813 344813 343814 344816 345817 346817
      348816
 0.50 268816 268814 267812 266811 265810 264809 263809 262807
      261807 260806 258806 257807 256809 257811 258813 259813
      260815 261815 262816 264817 266817 268817 268816
 0.50 245064 244063 243062 242061 241060 241059 239058 237057
      236057 235057 235059 236061 237062 238063 238064 240065
      242065 244065 245064
 1.00 531931 530919 528912 525912 521915 516918 510924 505926
      494935 489942 484945 480947 479950 481958 483960 487962
      492966 494970 496974 502977 506976 509974 514969 519965
      523959 527951 530943 531931
 1.00 493132 491130 490130 488131 487129 487126 487124 485123
      483125 484128 485129 486130 487131 488132 489134 491134
      492134 493132
 1.50 524944 521940 518939 515939 512942 510947 506949 499949
      491951 487953 486957 488956 491957 495960 497965 499968
      503967 509962 517957 521949 524944

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 462329 464325 467318 468314 471309 473305 476299 478295
      481291 483289 487287 491288 495288 500289 503292 506295
      510299 527252 523244 516235 511228 508224 505218 501212
      495208 491206 483204 477204 473205 469205 465207 459217
      451237 446248 446252 448256 451257 452260 450264 445277
      443282 441286 439300 441306 443304 450297 450304 449310
      447323
 0.01 567983 567977 566969 566952 563925 562909 562902 561898
      561893 560878 557868 551840 546807 545792 543785 541781
      537768 533758 529748 528742 525737 524730 522727 518719
      506706 504704 503710 501719 499726 497732 495743 491771
      489783 488794 483819 480829 477834 472835 466839 463841
      460846 455852 448858 440863 436863 433866 430876 439880
      443882 446889 443895 439899 424907 415912 408917 405919
      400920 392923 373927 353927 337923 332923 328920 323913
      320906 319891 320885 323880 326875 330872 336864 340861
      344859 351854 360850 375842 379835 381830 380826 377818
      375814 372812 367813 362815 356820 347827 343830 337832
      327829 325823 324821 325818 330811 336804 351794 354792
      359790 369789 371786 372781 372774 372767 372762 373757
      375748 377742 377737 377732 376726 373721 368718 366717
      364717 357718 353720 350720 346721 344725 337733 334735
      331733 317724 310719 303717 294717 288719 283722 275725
      266728 256734 252742 246763 246773 248787 248793 250796
      243801 242811 242815 244820 247828 247834 249838 254858
      257867 260875 267893 272903 278912 284919 288927 290932
      290937 292941 292947 288956 288962 292962 297957 304952
      310948 320944 328943 333941 338941 361940 371936 385936
      395936 400938 401943 401950 399955 394965 391974 389979
      389986 396986 403981 406979 407982 405989 405993 409998
      413998 416996 425993 437991 445989 453993 460997 463001
      465006 469019 466025 464033 462042 460050 457052
 0.01 457052 450057 446059 443063 440070 439076 444085 443091
      439092 428091 425096 429101 432104 428110 428114 430118
      434117 440118 441122 440126 439134 438139 437141 436150
      436156 438161 443162 447166 449171 452174 466178 472178
      476177 484176 489174 494172 497171 500175 514191 522198
      526198 525190 523185 520181 514173 511167 508163 507160
      507156 510149 512143 516141 524137 533134 540129 546120
      550109 554095 557078 559072 559063 561048 561036 563029
      564010 567983
 0.01 418081 418076 417073 412073 406073 406077 407079 406083
      404086 400090 397094 403095 406093 410087 414085 418081
 0.01 414844 414837 412833 408833 405836 402838 398841 396844
      395846 399849 402851 408850 411847 414844 414844
 0.01 403827 402822 399818 397816 393814 389812 386813 387817
      388822 392826 394828 398830 401830 403827
 0.01 377078 378076 374075 369070 367070 366065 362065 357069
      353073 351077 354077 360074 365072 367074 370075 372077
      376078 377078
 0.01 225056 229065 235070 238073 241076 250081 259085 266090
      285098 294100 305102 311103 316102 320100 323102 321104
      319108 321106 326107 327102 331104 333108 337111 341109
      345100 347096 348092 345081 342072 340067 339060 340047
      343041 346037 346032 346028 348024 350020 351015 351011
      345011 337014 334017 330023 326031 322038 316046 310053
      307057 303059 295062 285065 280064 273063 238049 233051
      227050
 0.01 302781 301766 299759 297754 290748 284748 277751 276754
      274760 272770 270783 270788 270792 273793 282795 287797
      294796 298793 300787 302781
 0.25 520270 511260 508253 507248 508246 507243 505241 501240
      497238 494245 492246 490247 488244 485238 479234 476234
      474236 473240 475243 479248 486247 490252 493260 495266
      500272 501279 505287 507288 508285 507281 510280 513288
 0.25 546057 547045 546034 544013 536971 531927 528902 529881
      530867 528855 526847 521841 519839 517842 513848 506853
      501860 490867 477867 473870 472874 469883 463900 457917
      455923 450929 439942 435947 432957 431966 433974 437978
      444977 459980 466983 469986 472991 474999 475008 475020
      473029 469048 465055 459063 453066 451069 452072 453076
      453083 452093 452100 453104 452114 450119 450127 453135
      458142 462143 465142 473143 479145 482147 486146 490141
      493137 497134 503129 513124 519121 524115 534102 537096
      541086 545073 546057
 0.25 362751 362747 361743 358739 353736 347739 343742 338747
      336752 333756 327768 324780 323786 323790 326792 331793
      337790 341786 345781 351772 357762 362751
 0.25 308863 309857 308852 305842 301836 295831 289826 281825
      274826 265825 260821 257818 254818 258824 260828 263831
      272843 280856 285862 290869 293877 294882 296882 299874
      303867 308863
 0.25 289077 289076 287075 285076 284076 283077 283078 285079
      285078 287078 289077 289077
 0.50 538064 539053 539042 539034 538024 536015 534007 528992
      521979 518973 516965 516959 517953 518942 519933 517923
      517912 518904 520896 521887 521881 519878 515874 509875
      503879 497883 492884 487882 483883 480884 473895 467912
      462925 456937 447947 443954 441961 438968 441972 454974
      463975 469978 475989 480995 482002 482011 481019 477035
      475045 471054 468061 465067 460081 457090 456095 457098
      458101 459106 459116 459126 465128 471131 476134 480132
      484133 488126 494121 498117 503115 513108 522099 526094
      530087 534077 538064
 0.50 353753 353748 350748 349749 347752 346755 344757 343761
      343763 344765 347766 348763 350761 351758 352755 353753
 0.50 299853 298847 296843 294839 291836 288833 284832 278833
      278838 279842 282846 285850 287853 289856 292857 295855
      298854 299853
 1.00 527065 528057 529048 528040 525034 522023 519017 515014
      511014 507016 500023 489041 485052 481066 477076 474082
      471087 465094 463099 466103 469108 474110 479109 483108
      492104 496102 500098 506092 514086 521080 524074 526068
      527065
 1.00 487924 485919 481920 472927 469932 466940 459949 456953
      453959 449964 450966 452966 462961 469961 474964 480964
      485959 487957 486952 484946 484937 486929 487924
 1.00 475972 474969 474968 472969 472970 473972 474973 475972
 1.50 515066 515061 513058 509057 506058 502059 498057 496056
      493058 489066 486073 484083 485087 488089 494087 500084
      505078 509072 514068 515066

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032050
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BOTTOM
OUT ACROSS OREGON BY THE START OF DAY 2 (FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING) WITH PEAK 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.  A WEAKNESS COL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/HIGH N-S SHEAR GRADIENT AND EASTERN SIDE SPEED MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE A WEDGE
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MT.   GIVEN THE
TOPOGRAPHY/QPF TOTALS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
CONFIDENCE...THERE WERE THOUGHTS OF INTRODUCING A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT GIVEN MORE SYNOPTIC ASCENTS/COOLER
ENVIRONMENTS AND LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL DID NOT DO SO AT
THIS TIME.  BY MID-DAY 2 THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE A STRONGER
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AIDING TO DRAW BACK A MATURING CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC
LEAF) WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX ON 25-30KT 850MB SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE TPWS OVER 1.0"...WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE/JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ND SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD COMING OUT OF
CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.   THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
AGREES WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION OF THE COMMA HEAD AND
CONVEYOR BELT EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A 1.25-1.75" AREAL AVERAGE FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
DAY 3.  SOME OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS RUNS WERE MORE
ROBUST WITH TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FLUX BUT MORE RANDOM IN
NATURE...AS SUCH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS MUCH
OF THE COMMA HEAD AND CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA/FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE DRAWS A WEAK TROPICAL
CONNECTION PULLING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES OUT OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY LEADING TO HEIGHT
FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG 25-30KT LLJ
TAPPING 1.75-2.0" TPWS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  STRONG CONVERGENCE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BOARDER.  PER PMDHMD...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
MIDDLE GROUND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE AND IS FAVORED WITHIN
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL...WITH HIGH TOTALS/RATES
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FFG...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA FOR DAY 2.

FOR DAY 3...A WEAKER LESS FOCUSED SHORTWAVE IT DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE THE DAKOTAS WHILE PHASING WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTING TROF.
 THIS AND STRONG WESTERLY DOWN SLOPING FLOW AIDS THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY OCCLUDING.  THIS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (40-50 KTS) AHEAD OF A STRONGLY FORMED COLD FRONT...LEADS
TO A CORRIDOR OF 1.75-2.0" TPWS AND SOLID INSTABILITIES IN EXCESS
OF 2500 J/KG TO DEVELOP VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH VERY STRONG RAIN RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SUCH A SLIGHT RISK COVERS MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF THE READ RIVER GIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY TO
BE DRAWN OVER THE OCCLUSION.


CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST....

WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...FILLS THE VACANCY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND CUTOFF ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST.   THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BRINGS
A SHOT OF DRIER AIR WITH TOTAL PWATS OF 1.25" CENTRALLY LOCATED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2.  ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DRY CYCLONE...A NARROW BAND OF INCREASE
MOISTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICE FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING TO MORE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY.

BURKE/GALLINA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 222078 224082 229085 236086 240088 246091 253092 266090
      276094 285100 297105 305106 310105 324108 328109 333112
      339115 342116 345114 348110 349105 350104 355091 359087
      364086 372088 376092 378094 381094 384089 391089 394086
      401078 415057 416048 414041 413034 410030 406026 404026
      402028 399033 394036 389040 384042 378043 373043 355042
      355038 353035 350036 344036 339038 329044 325050 325055
      325058 323059 318062 306063 293059 281063 275064 270062
      261056 255053 250049 242042 238038 232036 229038 228041
      225048
 0.01 559883 559875 557870 555859 554833 553826 550822 545815
      539809 532811 517817 508820 503826 500829 499835 495847
      489868 484876 480882 472887 468887 465885 456881 451888
      449891 451895 453903 450903 446901 443899 440895 434890
      430883 427879 425874 423868 423864 425862 428860 430854
      432845 440827 438825 434825 425826 420825 417820 413814
      409810 405810 399811 396811 394807 390799 395791 400785
      402777 400772 398770 393770 390772 383774 379777 375778
      372781 365787 360787 360786 362776 364772 367770 371768
      372763 373757 371752 365730 363717 359710 356706 353705
      344708 344713 344720 344726 344732 344738 342743 338751
      333758 330765 326773 323780 320789 317792 312793 302791
      298790 295786 290778 292768 300755 300750 301745 303734
      302731 304727 303723 301719 298717 295714 291715 287716
      283714 275720 266736 265740 263743 263755 260764 257768
      256772 253781 251786 248790 246799 243808 243814 244820
      248826 261842 265864 266889 267895 266900 262907 253923
      248932 243939 238948 233954 233967 233971 237973 242975
      247976 250974 253974 257972 264972 270973 275974 284974
      289973 292971 296964 299956 301950 306947 312946 313941
      313934 314929 318926 320924 323926 327926 331926 331922
      328919 324911 320904 315896 315891 316884 320875 321871
      325868 328864 332861 343861 353859 358853 361848 365845
      373840 379841 384841 395840 401847 400852 401858 401864
      403869 404874 407878 409883 412887 417894 430909 435909
      439911 441911 443914 445917 448921 450923 449927 443932
      439941 430946 428950 425956 422966 415986 410991 406996
      406000 405003 404007 405010 407012 407014 425011 431004
      433005 434011
 0.01 434011 435015 435022 434028 433031 433037 433041 437047
      442053 448057 453064 450068 446068 442069 441072 442075
      446077 448080 447085 445091 418102 404095 399098 395105
      393107 393111 395115 400116 404116 407115 412115 417118
      419126 420130 420136 415152 411163 410166 410170 414177
      416182 416184 407196 401213 405219 407216 409214 411215
      420217 427221 434225 442228 445228 448226 450222 451218
      451207 454204 457199 462194 467188 471182 477179 490175
      496172 502167 508163 515161 520158 522155 523149 524137
      525130 526127 530118 531110 532103 533089 534077 535063
      535056 534053 534040 533030 533021 532016 532008 534003
      534990 538981 542975 546968 550960 552953 555941 557932
      558927 558918 558910 557906 557892 559883
 0.01 275003 273999 268997 264995 260992 257989 253985 250982
      246979 240979 236981 234986 232991 232998 233003 240010
      245012 251013 255012 260010 264007 269006 273005 275003
 0.25 548903 549895 548887 546876 542865 541858 539853 537849
      532847 528849 524853 519862 514870 508877 503885 498893
      492899 485904 479911 474920 467927 464932 462936 460942
      458945 452952 445952 438957 435961 432966 431979 433984
      436986 451978 457973 461974 464978 470986 468998 462009
      462017 464023 467033 470043 470057 470064 472068 476080
      476088 474095 471099 465099 462100 458103 455114 451125
      447134 444142 444157 445162 444169 441174 438177 434181
      430185 428190 427195 426202 426206 432209 437209 443205
      449197 454190 460182 463176 464169 466163 469160 476156
      480156 485157 494158 499157 502154 511150 513145 515138
      515129 515121 518108 521095 520089 519083 516079 516075
      515059 514051 514043 514035 514028 512022 512014 512006
      514000 516996 519993 525987 529980 534970 539958 541944
      542937 544930 547917 548903
 0.25 388070 387067 384064 377062 368059 363058 357064 354071
      355075 358073 362072 367074 371079 373082 377084 380082
      383079 387072 388070
 0.25 369802 369799 366798 363800 357806 355807 352807 349806
      340801 335795 333793 329794 324803 319810 314815 310818
      306819 297816 289814 281816 277815 274813 267806 266803
      270801 270797 266796 263797 261801 256803 254805 253808
      254811 257815 263819 269824 272828 273833 279840 283847
      286854 289860 291862 297865 300861 303861 306863 309862
      310857 310851 310845 312840 316832 318830 322828 328828
      332830 339836 345840 347842 351841 354838 357834 361825
      366813 369802
 0.25 359756 360752 359747 357743 355742 351743 349745 348747
      347752 347754 347758 348763 350764 351764 354762 355761
      357759 359756
 0.25 342080 343078 343076 342074 340074 338075 337076 336076
      335077 334079 333082 332084 333086 335088 337088 339087
      340085 340082 341081 342080
 0.25 292734 291727 288724 285724 283727 281731 281736 279740
      280746 281748 286746 288743 290738 292735 292734
 0.25 298878 298874 296872 293866 292869 288870 285874 282879
      280884 279892 280898 284900 287898 291893 293889 296882
      298878
 0.25 254071 251065 249060 245056 241053 236050 232050 230052
      230058 233063 235067 240071 245074 252073 254071
 0.50 540906 540896 538885 536877 532872 528873 526875 522880
      517885 512892 507898 503901 494912 490919 485925 475934
      471941 467947 468955 471961 476966 482969 487976 489980
      489982 488989 485996 483001 481004 477007 472014 472020
      473025 475035 476044 476056 480061 489070 493077 495081
      496087 494093 493097 488103 468116 464123 461133 457141
      457145 461146 466143 472143 485146 494148 500147 505141
      507134 505125 505116 507106 510099 510092 509087 505081
      503076 504074 505067 506063 505043 505032 505020 503011
      502004 504000 508993 513989 522980 530968 533960 536949
      538940 539928 540906
 0.50 446189 446185 443184 440185 437187 436189 434191 433195
      432198 433200 435202 438202 440200 442198 443196 445191
      446189
 0.50 441969 442966 441964 440962 438964 437966 438968 439969
      440969 441969
 0.50 378071 376069 375069 374069 375069 375071 376072 378072
      378071
 0.50 348816 347813 346813 344813 343814 344816 345817 346817
      348816
 0.50 304852 302850 302849 301851 302852 303852 304853 304852
 0.50 265815 264813 264812 263811 262809 262808 260807 258806
      256807 256809 256810 257811 258813 259813 260815 261815
      262816 264815 265815
 0.50 245064 244063 243062 242061 241060 241059 239058 237057
      236057 235057 235059 236061 237062 238063 238064 240065
      242065 244065 245064
 1.00 530939 530926 528915 526913 522913 515918 507929 501932
      494936 488939 483944 481948 481954 486961 490966 494972
      500977 504977 509976 513973 518967 523961 527953 529946
      530939
 1.00 492127 492123 490119 489118 487119 484120 482121 480122
      481125 483127 485129 486131 489133 491129 492127
 1.50 520949 520944 518941 515940 510941 504942 500943 498947
      493952 490953 489957 492962 497968 501969 505967 510964
      515957 520952 520949

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 462329 464325 467318 468314 471309 473305 476299 478295
      481291 483289 487287 491288 495288 500289 503292 506295
      510299 527252 523244 516235 511228 508224 505218 501212
      495208 491206 483204 477204 473205 469205 465207 459217
      451237 446248 446252 448256 451257 452260 450264 445277
      443282 441286 439300 441306 443304 450297 450304 449310
      447323
 0.01 567983 567977 566969 566952 563925 562909 562902 561898
      561893 560878 557868 551840 546807 545792 543785 541781
      537768 533758 529748 528742 525737 524730 522727 518719
      506706 504704 503710 501719 499726 497732 495743 491771
      489783 488794 483819 480829 477834 472835 466839 463841
      460846 455852 448858 440863 436863 433866 430876 439880
      443882 446889 443895 439899 424907 415912 408917 405919
      400920 392923 373927 353927 337923 332923 328920 323913
      320906 319891 320885 323880 326875 330872 336864 340861
      344859 351854 360850 375842 379835 381830 380826 377818
      375814 372812 367813 362815 356820 347827 343830 337832
      327829 325823 324821 325818 330811 336804 351794 354792
      359790 369789 371786 372781 372774 372767 372762 373757
      375748 377742 377737 377732 376726 373721 368718 366717
      364717 357718 353720 350720 346721 344725 337733 334735
      331733 317724 310719 303717 294717 288719 283722 275725
      266728 256734 252742 246763 246773 248787 248793 250796
      243801 242811 242815 244820 247828 247834 249838 254858
      257867 260875 267893 272903 278912 284919 288927 290932
      290937 292941 292947 288956 288962 292962 297957 304952
      310948 320944 328943 333941 338941 361940 371936 385936
      395936 400938 401943 401950 399955 394965 391974 389979
      389986 396986 403981 406979 407982 405989 405993 409998
      413998 416996 425993 437991 445989 453993 460997 463001
      465006 469019 466025 464033 462042 460050 457052
 0.01 457052 450057 446059 443063 440070 439076 444085 443091
      439092 428091 425096 429101 432104 428110 428114 430118
      434117 440118 441122 440126 439134 438139 437141 436150
      436156 438161 443162 447166 449171 452174 466178 472178
      476177 484176 489174 494172 497171 500175 514191 522198
      526198 525190 523185 520181 514173 511167 508163 507160
      507156 510149 512143 516141 524137 533134 540129 546120
      550109 554095 557078 559072 559063 561048 561036 563029
      564010 567983
 0.01 418081 418076 417073 412073 406073 406077 407079 406083
      404086 400090 397094 403095 406093 410087 414085 418081
 0.01 414844 414837 412833 408833 405836 402838 398841 396844
      395846 399849 402851 408850 411847 414844 414844
 0.01 403827 402822 399818 397816 393814 389812 386813 387817
      388822 392826 394828 398830 401830 403827
 0.01 377078 378076 374075 369070 367070 366065 362065 357069
      353073 351077 354077 360074 365072 367074 370075 372077
      376078 377078
 0.01 225056 229065 235070 238073 241076 250081 259085 266090
      285098 294100 305102 311103 316102 320100 323102 321104
      319108 321106 326107 327102 331104 333108 337111 341109
      345100 347096 348092 345081 342072 340067 339060 340047
      343041 346037 346032 346028 348024 350020 351015 351011
      345011 337014 334017 330023 326031 322038 316046 310053
      307057 303059 295062 285065 280064 273063 238049 233051
      227050
 0.01 302781 301766 299759 297754 290748 284748 277751 276754
      274760 272770 270783 270788 270792 273793 282795 287797
      294796 298793 300787 302781
 0.25 520270 511260 508253 507248 508246 507243 505241 501240
      497238 494245 492246 490247 488244 485238 479234 476234
      474236 473240 475243 479248 486247 490252 493260 495266
      500272 501279 505287 507288 508285 507281 510280 513288
 0.25 546057 547045 546034 544013 536971 531927 528902 529881
      530867 528855 526847 521841 519839 517842 513848 506853
      501860 490867 477867 473870 472874 469883 463900 457917
      455923 450929 439942 435947 432957 431966 433974 437978
      444977 459980 466983 469986 472991 474999 475008 475020
      473029 469048 465055 459063 453066 451069 452072 453076
      453083 452093 452100 453104 452114 450119 450127 453135
      458142 462143 465142 473143 479145 482147 486146 490141
      493137 497134 503129 513124 519121 524115 534102 537096
      541086 545073 546057
 0.25 362751 362747 361743 358739 353736 347739 343742 338747
      336752 333756 327768 324780 323786 323790 326792 331793
      337790 341786 345781 351772 357762 362751
 0.25 308863 309857 308852 305842 301836 295831 289826 281825
      274826 265825 260821 257818 254818 258824 260828 263831
      272843 280856 285862 290869 293877 294882 296882 299874
      303867 308863
 0.25 289077 289076 287075 285076 284076 283077 283078 285079
      285078 287078 289077 289077
 0.50 538064 539053 539042 539034 538024 536015 534007 528992
      521979 518973 516965 516959 517953 518942 519933 517923
      517912 518904 520896 521887 521881 519878 515874 509875
      503879 497883 492884 487882 483883 480884 473895 467912
      462925 456937 447947 443954 441961 438968 441972 454974
      463975 469978 475989 480995 482002 482011 481019 477035
      475045 471054 468061 465067 460081 457090 456095 457098
      458101 459106 459116 459126 465128 471131 476134 480132
      484133 488126 494121 498117 503115 513108 522099 526094
      530087 534077 538064
 0.50 353753 353748 350748 349749 347752 346755 344757 343761
      343763 344765 347766 348763 350761 351758 352755 353753
 0.50 299853 298847 296843 294839 291836 288833 284832 278833
      278838 279842 282846 285850 287853 289856 292857 295855
      298854 299853
 1.00 527065 528057 529048 528040 525034 522023 519017 515014
      511014 507016 500023 489041 485052 481066 477076 474082
      471087 465094 463099 466103 469108 474110 479109 483108
      492104 496102 500098 506092 514086 521080 524074 526068
      527065
 1.00 487924 485919 481920 472927 469932 466940 459949 456953
      453959 449964 450966 452966 462961 469961 474964 480964
      485959 487957 486952 484946 484937 486929 487924
 1.00 475972 474969 474968 472969 472970 473972 474973 475972
 1.50 515066 515061 513058 509057 506058 502059 498057 496056
      493058 489066 486073 484083 485087 488089 494087 500084
      505078 509072 514068 515066

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 032050
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BOTTOM
OUT ACROSS OREGON BY THE START OF DAY 2 (FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING) WITH PEAK 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.  A WEAKNESS COL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/HIGH N-S SHEAR GRADIENT AND EASTERN SIDE SPEED MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX TO PRODUCE A WEDGE
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MT.   GIVEN THE
TOPOGRAPHY/QPF TOTALS AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
CONFIDENCE...THERE WERE THOUGHTS OF INTRODUCING A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT GIVEN MORE SYNOPTIC ASCENTS/COOLER
ENVIRONMENTS AND LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL DID NOT DO SO AT
THIS TIME.  BY MID-DAY 2 THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE A STRONGER
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AIDING TO DRAW BACK A MATURING CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC
LEAF) WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX ON 25-30KT 850MB SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE TPWS OVER 1.0"...WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE/JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ND SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD COMING OUT OF
CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.   THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
AGREES WITH SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION OF THE COMMA HEAD AND
CONVEYOR BELT EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A 1.25-1.75" AREAL AVERAGE FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
DAY 3.  SOME OF THE HI-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS RUNS WERE MORE
ROBUST WITH TOTALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FLUX BUT MORE RANDOM IN
NATURE...AS SUCH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS MUCH
OF THE COMMA HEAD AND CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA/FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE DRAWS A WEAK TROPICAL
CONNECTION PULLING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES OUT OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY LEADING TO HEIGHT
FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A STRONG 25-30KT LLJ
TAPPING 1.75-2.0" TPWS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  STRONG CONVERGENCE ALLOWS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ALONG THE U.S. CANADA BOARDER.  PER PMDHMD...THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
MIDDLE GROUND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE AND IS FAVORED WITHIN
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL...WITH HIGH TOTALS/RATES
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FFG...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA FOR DAY 2.

FOR DAY 3...A WEAKER LESS FOCUSED SHORTWAVE IT DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE THE DAKOTAS WHILE PHASING WITH THE NEGATIVE TILTING TROF.
 THIS AND STRONG WESTERLY DOWN SLOPING FLOW AIDS THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY OCCLUDING.  THIS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (40-50 KTS) AHEAD OF A STRONGLY FORMED COLD FRONT...LEADS
TO A CORRIDOR OF 1.75-2.0" TPWS AND SOLID INSTABILITIES IN EXCESS
OF 2500 J/KG TO DEVELOP VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH VERY STRONG RAIN RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SUCH A SLIGHT RISK COVERS MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF THE READ RIVER GIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY TO
BE DRAWN OVER THE OCCLUSION.


CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST....

WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...FILLS THE VACANCY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AND CUTOFF ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST.   THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BRINGS
A SHOT OF DRIER AIR WITH TOTAL PWATS OF 1.25" CENTRALLY LOCATED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2.  ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DRY CYCLONE...A NARROW BAND OF INCREASE
MOISTURE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICE FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING TO MORE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN ON SUNDAY.

BURKE/GALLINA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 222078 224082 229085 236086 240088 246091 253092 266090
      276094 285100 297105 305106 310105 324108 328109 333112
      339115 342116 345114 348110 349105 350104 355091 359087
      364086 372088 376092 378094 381094 384089 391089 394086
      401078 415057 416048 414041 413034 410030 406026 404026
      402028 399033 394036 389040 384042 378043 373043 355042
      355038 353035 350036 344036 339038 329044 325050 325055
      325058 323059 318062 306063 293059 281063 275064 270062
      261056 255053 250049 242042 238038 232036 229038 228041
      225048
 0.01 559883 559875 557870 555859 554833 553826 550822 545815
      539809 532811 517817 508820 503826 500829 499835 495847
      489868 484876 480882 472887 468887 465885 456881 451888
      449891 451895 453903 450903 446901 443899 440895 434890
      430883 427879 425874 423868 423864 425862 428860 430854
      432845 440827 438825 434825 425826 420825 417820 413814
      409810 405810 399811 396811 394807 390799 395791 400785
      402777 400772 398770 393770 390772 383774 379777 375778
      372781 365787 360787 360786 362776 364772 367770 371768
      372763 373757 371752 365730 363717 359710 356706 353705
      344708 344713 344720 344726 344732 344738 342743 338751
      333758 330765 326773 323780 320789 317792 312793 302791
      298790 295786 290778 292768 300755 300750 301745 303734
      302731 304727 303723 301719 298717 295714 291715 287716
      283714 275720 266736 265740 263743 263755 260764 257768
      256772 253781 251786 248790 246799 243808 243814 244820
      248826 261842 265864 266889 267895 266900 262907 253923
      248932 243939 238948 233954 233967 233971 237973 242975
      247976 250974 253974 257972 264972 270973 275974 284974
      289973 292971 296964 299956 301950 306947 312946 313941
      313934 314929 318926 320924 323926 327926 331926 331922
      328919 324911 320904 315896 315891 316884 320875 321871
      325868 328864 332861 343861 353859 358853 361848 365845
      373840 379841 384841 395840 401847 400852 401858 401864
      403869 404874 407878 409883 412887 417894 430909 435909
      439911 441911 443914 445917 448921 450923 449927 443932
      439941 430946 428950 425956 422966 415986 410991 406996
      406000 405003 404007 405010 407012 407014 425011 431004
      433005 434011
 0.01 434011 435015 435022 434028 433031 433037 433041 437047
      442053 448057 453064 450068 446068 442069 441072 442075
      446077 448080 447085 445091 418102 404095 399098 395105
      393107 393111 395115 400116 404116 407115 412115 417118
      419126 420130 420136 415152 411163 410166 410170 414177
      416182 416184 407196 401213 405219 407216 409214 411215
      420217 427221 434225 442228 445228 448226 450222 451218
      451207 454204 457199 462194 467188 471182 477179 490175
      496172 502167 508163 515161 520158 522155 523149 524137
      525130 526127 530118 531110 532103 533089 534077 535063
      535056 534053 534040 533030 533021 532016 532008 534003
      534990 538981 542975 546968 550960 552953 555941 557932
      558927 558918 558910 557906 557892 559883
 0.01 275003 273999 268997 264995 260992 257989 253985 250982
      246979 240979 236981 234986 232991 232998 233003 240010
      245012 251013 255012 260010 264007 269006 273005 275003
 0.25 548903 549895 548887 546876 542865 541858 539853 537849
      532847 528849 524853 519862 514870 508877 503885 498893
      492899 485904 479911 474920 467927 464932 462936 460942
      458945 452952 445952 438957 435961 432966 431979 433984
      436986 451978 457973 461974 464978 470986 468998 462009
      462017 464023 467033 470043 470057 470064 472068 476080
      476088 474095 471099 465099 462100 458103 455114 451125
      447134 444142 444157 445162 444169 441174 438177 434181
      430185 428190 427195 426202 426206 432209 437209 443205
      449197 454190 460182 463176 464169 466163 469160 476156
      480156 485157 494158 499157 502154 511150 513145 515138
      515129 515121 518108 521095 520089 519083 516079 516075
      515059 514051 514043 514035 514028 512022 512014 512006
      514000 516996 519993 525987 529980 534970 539958 541944
      542937 544930 547917 548903
 0.25 388070 387067 384064 377062 368059 363058 357064 354071
      355075 358073 362072 367074 371079 373082 377084 380082
      383079 387072 388070
 0.25 369802 369799 366798 363800 357806 355807 352807 349806
      340801 335795 333793 329794 324803 319810 314815 310818
      306819 297816 289814 281816 277815 274813 267806 266803
      270801 270797 266796 263797 261801 256803 254805 253808
      254811 257815 263819 269824 272828 273833 279840 283847
      286854 289860 291862 297865 300861 303861 306863 309862
      310857 310851 310845 312840 316832 318830 322828 328828
      332830 339836 345840 347842 351841 354838 357834 361825
      366813 369802
 0.25 359756 360752 359747 357743 355742 351743 349745 348747
      347752 347754 347758 348763 350764 351764 354762 355761
      357759 359756
 0.25 342080 343078 343076 342074 340074 338075 337076 336076
      335077 334079 333082 332084 333086 335088 337088 339087
      340085 340082 341081 342080
 0.25 292734 291727 288724 285724 283727 281731 281736 279740
      280746 281748 286746 288743 290738 292735 292734
 0.25 298878 298874 296872 293866 292869 288870 285874 282879
      280884 279892 280898 284900 287898 291893 293889 296882
      298878
 0.25 254071 251065 249060 245056 241053 236050 232050 230052
      230058 233063 235067 240071 245074 252073 254071
 0.50 540906 540896 538885 536877 532872 528873 526875 522880
      517885 512892 507898 503901 494912 490919 485925 475934
      471941 467947 468955 471961 476966 482969 487976 489980
      489982 488989 485996 483001 481004 477007 472014 472020
      473025 475035 476044 476056 480061 489070 493077 495081
      496087 494093 493097 488103 468116 464123 461133 457141
      457145 461146 466143 472143 485146 494148 500147 505141
      507134 505125 505116 507106 510099 510092 509087 505081
      503076 504074 505067 506063 505043 505032 505020 503011
      502004 504000 508993 513989 522980 530968 533960 536949
      538940 539928 540906
 0.50 446189 446185 443184 440185 437187 436189 434191 433195
      432198 433200 435202 438202 440200 442198 443196 445191
      446189
 0.50 441969 442966 441964 440962 438964 437966 438968 439969
      440969 441969
 0.50 378071 376069 375069 374069 375069 375071 376072 378072
      378071
 0.50 348816 347813 346813 344813 343814 344816 345817 346817
      348816
 0.50 304852 302850 302849 301851 302852 303852 304853 304852
 0.50 265815 264813 264812 263811 262809 262808 260807 258806
      256807 256809 256810 257811 258813 259813 260815 261815
      262816 264815 265815
 0.50 245064 244063 243062 242061 241060 241059 239058 237057
      236057 235057 235059 236061 237062 238063 238064 240065
      242065 244065 245064
 1.00 530939 530926 528915 526913 522913 515918 507929 501932
      494936 488939 483944 481948 481954 486961 490966 494972
      500977 504977 509976 513973 518967 523961 527953 529946
      530939
 1.00 492127 492123 490119 489118 487119 484120 482121 480122
      481125 483127 485129 486131 489133 491129 492127
 1.50 520949 520944 518941 515940 510941 504942 500943 498947
      493952 490953 489957 492962 497968 501969 505967 510964
      515957 520952 520949

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 462329 464325 467318 468314 471309 473305 476299 478295
      481291 483289 487287 491288 495288 500289 503292 506295
      510299 527252 523244 516235 511228 508224 505218 501212
      495208 491206 483204 477204 473205 469205 465207 459217
      451237 446248 446252 448256 451257 452260 450264 445277
      443282 441286 439300 441306 443304 450297 450304 449310
      447323
 0.01 567983 567977 566969 566952 563925 562909 562902 561898
      561893 560878 557868 551840 546807 545792 543785 541781
      537768 533758 529748 528742 525737 524730 522727 518719
      506706 504704 503710 501719 499726 497732 495743 491771
      489783 488794 483819 480829 477834 472835 466839 463841
      460846 455852 448858 440863 436863 433866 430876 439880
      443882 446889 443895 439899 424907 415912 408917 405919
      400920 392923 373927 353927 337923 332923 328920 323913
      320906 319891 320885 323880 326875 330872 336864 340861
      344859 351854 360850 375842 379835 381830 380826 377818
      375814 372812 367813 362815 356820 347827 343830 337832
      327829 325823 324821 325818 330811 336804 351794 354792
      359790 369789 371786 372781 372774 372767 372762 373757
      375748 377742 377737 377732 376726 373721 368718 366717
      364717 357718 353720 350720 346721 344725 337733 334735
      331733 317724 310719 303717 294717 288719 283722 275725
      266728 256734 252742 246763 246773 248787 248793 250796
      243801 242811 242815 244820 247828 247834 249838 254858
      257867 260875 267893 272903 278912 284919 288927 290932
      290937 292941 292947 288956 288962 292962 297957 304952
      310948 320944 328943 333941 338941 361940 371936 385936
      395936 400938 401943 401950 399955 394965 391974 389979
      389986 396986 403981 406979 407982 405989 405993 409998
      413998 416996 425993 437991 445989 453993 460997 463001
      465006 469019 466025 464033 462042 460050 457052
 0.01 457052 450057 446059 443063 440070 439076 444085 443091
      439092 428091 425096 429101 432104 428110 428114 430118
      434117 440118 441122 440126 439134 438139 437141 436150
      436156 438161 443162 447166 449171 452174 466178 472178
      476177 484176 489174 494172 497171 500175 514191 522198
      526198 525190 523185 520181 514173 511167 508163 507160
      507156 510149 512143 516141 524137 533134 540129 546120
      550109 554095 557078 559072 559063 561048 561036 563029
      564010 567983
 0.01 418081 418076 417073 412073 406073 406077 407079 406083
      404086 400090 397094 403095 406093 410087 414085 418081
 0.01 414844 414837 412833 408833 405836 402838 398841 396844
      395846 399849 402851 408850 411847 414844 414844
 0.01 403827 402822 399818 397816 393814 389812 386813 387817
      388822 392826 394828 398830 401830 403827
 0.01 377078 378076 374075 369070 367070 366065 362065 357069
      353073 351077 354077 360074 365072 367074 370075 372077
      376078 377078
 0.01 225056 229065 235070 238073 241076 250081 259085 266090
      285098 294100 305102 311103 316102 320100 323102 321104
      319108 321106 326107 327102 331104 333108 337111 341109
      345100 347096 348092 345081 342072 340067 339060 340047
      343041 346037 346032 346028 348024 350020 351015 351011
      345011 337014 334017 330023 326031 322038 316046 310053
      307057 303059 295062 285065 280064 273063 238049 233051
      227050
 0.01 302781 301766 299759 297754 290748 284748 277751 276754
      274760 272770 270783 270788 270792 273793 282795 287797
      294796 298793 300787 302781
 0.25 520270 511260 508253 507248 508246 507243 505241 501240
      497238 494245 492246 490247 488244 485238 479234 476234
      474236 473240 475243 479248 486247 490252 493260 495266
      500272 501279 505287 507288 508285 507281 510280 513288
 0.25 546057 547045 546034 544013 536971 531927 528902 529881
      530867 528855 526847 521841 519839 517842 513848 506853
      501860 490867 477867 473870 472874 469883 463900 457917
      455923 450929 439942 435947 432957 431966 433974 437978
      444977 459980 466983 469986 472991 474999 475008 475020
      473029 469048 465055 459063 453066 451069 452072 453076
      453083 452093 452100 453104 452114 450119 450127 453135
      458142 462143 465142 473143 479145 482147 486146 490141
      493137 497134 503129 513124 519121 524115 534102 537096
      541086 545073 546057
 0.25 362751 362747 361743 358739 353736 347739 343742 338747
      336752 333756 327768 324780 323786 323790 326792 331793
      337790 341786 345781 351772 357762 362751
 0.25 308863 309857 308852 305842 301836 295831 289826 281825
      274826 265825 260821 257818 254818 258824 260828 263831
      272843 280856 285862 290869 293877 294882 296882 299874
      303867 308863
 0.25 289077 289076 287075 285076 284076 283077 283078 285079
      285078 287078 289077 289077
 0.50 538064 539053 539042 539034 538024 536015 534007 528992
      521979 518973 516965 516959 517953 518942 519933 517923
      517912 518904 520896 521887 521881 519878 515874 509875
      503879 497883 492884 487882 483883 480884 473895 467912
      462925 456937 447947 443954 441961 438968 441972 454974
      463975 469978 475989 480995 482002 482011 481019 477035
      475045 471054 468061 465067 460081 457090 456095 457098
      458101 459106 459116 459126 465128 471131 476134 480132
      484133 488126 494121 498117 503115 513108 522099 526094
      530087 534077 538064
 0.50 353753 353748 350748 349749 347752 346755 344757 343761
      343763 344765 347766 348763 350761 351758 352755 353753
 0.50 299853 298847 296843 294839 291836 288833 284832 278833
      278838 279842 282846 285850 287853 289856 292857 295855
      298854 299853
 1.00 527065 528057 529048 528040 525034 522023 519017 515014
      511014 507016 500023 489041 485052 481066 477076 474082
      471087 465094 463099 466103 469108 474110 479109 483108
      492104 496102 500098 506092 514086 521080 524074 526068
      527065
 1.00 487924 485919 481920 472927 469932 466940 459949 456953
      453959 449964 450966 452966 462961 469961 474964 480964
      485959 487957 486952 484946 484937 486929 487924
 1.00 475972 474969 474968 472969 472970 473972 474973 475972
 1.50 515066 515061 513058 509057 506058 502059 498057 496056
      493058 489066 486073 484083 485087 488089 494087 500084
      505078 509072 514068 515066

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 04/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHOWING
LITTLE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COST DIGS TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 500
MB HEIGHTS...WITH GRADUAL GRADIENTS AND A GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY IDAHO / MONTANA...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
PICK UP A SMALLER SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE TRACK UP THROUGH NORTHEAST CO INTO NE/SD OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN ND/MN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT ENSUING. WE BACKED UP THE TIMING OF
THE QPF IN ND SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MASS FIELDS FROM THE GFS...BUT
ALSO SUPPORTED BY QPF FROM THE 12Z NAM CONEST.


...GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY / MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WAS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE THAT WAS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.50 INCHES. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS THE COMPACT LOW WAS PRODUCING
LIFT MAINLY NEAR ITS CENTER...ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT A GREATER
RADIUS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN THE DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IN...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
INTO PARTS OF IA/WI...AND THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE
LIMITING IN AREAL COVERAGE. WPC ATTEMPTED TO INCORPORATE TRENDS IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGE...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 0.50 INCH QPF CONFINED NOW TO THE AREAS AWAY FROM THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FROM IL TO OH.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY
THAN IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE
EVEN THE SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND I-8. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW
600 MB...SO STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN
NM...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LAST
NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


...LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EMERGING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND BACK OVER FLORIDA WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME TENDENCY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO HANDLE
FLORIDA WELL...AND WE BLENDED TOWARD BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND WRF-ARW.
AT THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFINABLE TROUGH AXIS SITS
LOUISIANA...WHERE RICH MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED ALONG THE
COAST...AND A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHOWERY REGIME WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ONE INCH
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 556958 555942 555927 550927 546924 538922 527935 521940
      518938 513938 509936 505936 499936 495938 480947 475949
      469949 464949 461955 454971 449982 442986 436987 432989
      424993 412993 406998 401002 395009 389014 383023 382027
      381034 382046 369044 359048 352051 347052 341052 337053
      331053 328055 329058 341059 344061 344065 340068 333071
      324074 316077 309079 305080 299079 291076 282073 277071
      274067 272062 268059 264057 259055 255056 253061 252067
      250071 241074 240079 242083 248090 255095 262101 268106
      274111 277113 282114 292115 297114 300118 304125 307128
      313131 323133 327133 331131 337124 346125 351123 354120
      358110 359104 363100 367101 370100 379101 385095 392091
      398085 410071 417067 418060 416055 414050 411047 403043
      398036 399031 402026 410023 416022 419021 430023 433026
      436030 442027 446022 451020 457020 465020 467021 467024
      467032 465038 463043 459055 456059 456064 456071 457076
      461087 462094 461097 458097 450094 446092 442091 439094
      437100 439105 436109 435114 436119 439119 440125 439132
      436136 427149 419154 414160 412164 413171 414172 420169
      426165 432159 446167 445171 442170 438171 434169 431169
      427170 423176 418184 409201 404207 402211 401216 405224
      410230 412235 416237 420240 425242 427242 429241 432237
      433233 436232 445231 456229 464227 470223 475222 480223
      478228 474229 468235 465236 466238 471241 474245 478246
      480248 480252 489273 494283 499285 501286 503285 506282
      507277 505266 504261 501257 498249 494244 492240 487233
      484232 482228 484225 486225 491225 493226 493230 497239
      501246 505253 509263 511268 516270 522263 526250 528230
      529222 530219 532216 533210 535206 537201 538193 539186
      538180 541168 541160 540154
 0.01 540154 537144 533133 531127 528124 523122 520117 514111
      512106 511100 509093 510086 511069 509063 506060 502057
      498056 495055 494053 496048 498042 501039 514025 526011
      537997 543989 548979 552970 555966 556958
 0.01 493202 494195 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494159
      487155 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451192 451197 454205 459210 465210
      471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 464256 465251 464246 461243 457243 452242 448243 441245
      437245 434248 427252 429256 432259 440264 445266 450267
      456264 459262 462258 464256
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 455835 446802 441798 434797 422798 413799 412797 412794
      414791 415782 413779 413777 414774 420764 423758 421754
      415748 413746 414742 421729 424722 427716 428711 428707
      424706 419705 417701 414700 411702 409704 405710 392734
      391741 393746 393750 386754 380757 377759 373760 366762
      358763 354758 350753 346748 337740 326731 322725 318722
      312718 307718 302723 300730 291739 285749 282756 280762
      279771 278776 275778 263783 260788 260795 260797 258798
      254798 250804 251811 255816 257819 260819 266820 271823
      269830 269837 272843 276849 281854 286857 291858 295853
      294843 293840 294837 297835 299837 301846 300850 300854
      302859 306859 306856 306847 308841 314831 319826 324822
      328818 332811 340799 350790 354789 357791 359796 358800
      356807 353812 346822 342828 339835 336841 334840 334835
      333828 329826 325827 322831 322835 324838 325843 326846
      327853 330862 333869 339880 344883 350884 353883 354880
      352872 348867 344862 342859 342856 346855 348853 357844
      362843 364841 368840 370842 379853 387863 391866 395871
      398878 402885 409898 412904 417910 424919 429923 433924
      435926 443926 446919 445904 439890 432876 429866 429862
      431859 439859 444856 449844 455835
 0.01 407110 408105 408100 406100 404102 404104 402106 400108
      396110 393110 391112 392114 394114 398113 400111 403111
      405112 407110
 0.01 317926 314914 314905 312899 308886 307878 305873 299870
      294869 288871 284871 278879 274885 272890 271904 271912
      273917 280926 281929 284929 286928 289929 290937 288943
      285948 282954 279959 277966 277972 281975 286973 290969
      294964 296960 303952 307947 309941 314934 317926
 0.01 281983 281980 277980 273980 270978 268978 266976 263975
      261976 262978 264980 266982 267984 269986 271987 273986
      275984 279983 281983
 0.01 267019 265015 258012 258007 262004 264999 264995 262992
      254986 250976 241972 235975 233979 232995 234001 236006
      241009 246012 250015 256017 261019 267019
 0.25 546957 546951 545947 541943 535945 530949 520955 516955
      511960 504961 498961 490962 484964 474971 470974 465979
      456988 452993 448000 450003 456003 470001 477002 482004
      490016 494021 497022 499021 509013 519005 527994 534983
      541971 544964 546957
 0.25 534174 535168 534163 532154 528137 525134 522133 516130
      510125 505120 502114 502103 501092 499085 496082 492084
      488088 484094 479099 468105 463109 459115 451127 444140
      440149 445152 451151 457148 468142 473140 480137 491137
      497142 501148 505155 510159 515165 520170 523175 527179
      532177 534174
 0.25 445005 444004 443002 441001 440002 440004 441006 442007
      443007 444005 445005
 0.25 436828 435823 433821 426816 409821 402824 396829 394833
      393838 394845 394851 402866 410882 415889 420895 425894
      426890 423880 419872 416863 415850 415844 416839 421834
      426833 431832 435830 436828
 0.25 433004 433002 432001 431000 429001 428001 428004 428006
      429007 430008 432006 432005 433004
 0.25 401060 402058 400056 398057 397057 396057 395058 393059
      391061 390061 389062 388063 388066 389068 390068 391068
      392068 394066 396065 397064 398063 399062 400060 401060
 0.25 393796 394791 394787 392784 389783 385784 380788 377792
      372796 368800 366802 366807 370808 376807 382807 387804
      390801 393796
 0.25 381081 382076 382072 382069 379067 377065 375064 371064
      370066 371069 373071 374075 374078 375081 377082 379082
      381081
 0.25 365816 364814 362814 361816 360816 359817 358819 357819
      357821 357823 358824 360824 361823 361822 363820 365818
      365816
 0.25 346118 342113 341110 342104 344097 344089 346082 344079
      339080 335083 332085 331088 329091 327092 320090 315093
      311097 307103 308111 311116 318120 320119 319116 320112
      322111 329109 332110 334112 340115 345119 346118
 0.25 315770 313764 310759 310754 310750 309745 305742 302741
      298742 295747 294752 293759 294765 293770 290776 283784
      281790 283796 285798 288798 296798 299798 302796 306792
      312781 314777 315770
 0.25 303909 303903 302898 299889 298884 294880 285880 281887
      277896 278902 279906 284914 290920 293922 296922 299920
      301916 303909
 0.25 297821 295815 293813 287808 283805 280804 269805 259804
      257803 254805 256810 260813 263815 272816 279820 287823
      291825 294824 297821
 0.25 288087 290083 288081 283079 272077 266076 261078 261081
      265084 273091 265093 265095 266097 270100 274102 277104
      281103 284100 282095 277092 278091 283090 288088 288087
 0.50 529172 530166 529162 527151 523144 517141 510136 507137
      507142 509151 513158 518162 521165 523168 524172 526175
      529172
 0.50 538960 534958 530959 522962 515965 509972 496967 489970
      482975 476981 474985 472991 475995 480996 485997 488000
      493006 500011 504011 508009 515004 520999 525991 534973
      538960
 0.50 496118 497108 497103 495100 492099 487102 478108 469114
      466119 461124 458127 455132 454137 455140 460140 469135
      474132 479131 484131 490127 493122 496118
 0.50 422888 422886 422885 421884 420882 419881 418879 417879
      416878 414878 414879 414880 415882 416884 416885 418886
      418887 420888 421888 422889 422888
 0.50 419827 416826 413826 406831 401836 398838 398844 398850
      400855 405863 407866 408861 405850 403839 410833 417828
      419827
 0.50 340093 339091 339089 337088 336088 336091 335093 335095
      334095 334097 336098 337097 338097 340095 340093
 0.50 327102 327100 324098 322097 320097 318099 316101 314103
      312107 312111 315112 316110 318108 321106 323106 325104
      327102
 0.50 308778 309773 309769 307767 303766 301768 300770 298773
      297777 296779 295782 295786 296788 300788 302787 304785
      306782 307780 308778
 0.50 299907 300901 295899 293895 291892 287893 284897 282902
      284906 287910 290913 293914 295911 299908 299907
 0.50 289818 288815 286813 284810 282809 280808 276809 275810
      275814 277815 279816 281817 284819 287820 289818
 0.50 264811 264810 263809 262807 261807 260806 258805 257805
      256807 257809 258810 260811 262810 263811 264811 264811
 1.00 522981 522978 520977 515977 509982 502986 495982 488980
      482984 484987 489988 497993 499995 500000 505002 508001
      515996 520987 522981

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 031337
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 15Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

EARLY ON THURSDAY STRONG CONVECTION HAD BEEN TIED CLOSELY TO THE
CENTER OF A SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR AROUND THE CIRCULATION HAD PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION...AND ONLY BRIEF TRAINING OF ECHOES
LEADING TO ISOLATED OBSERVED TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. TOWARD
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ROOTED CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE MAY FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING
STATES BORDERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT A GIVEN
POINT IS LOW HOWEVER...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SPARSE COVERAGE AND RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW.


...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE PLUME OF GREATEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAD BEEN SHUNTED
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS ARIZONA...ACTING TO SUSTAIN
PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER THE MORNING RAOBS. THE
MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY THAN
IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE EVEN THE
SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND I-8. A
LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB...SO
STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN NM...PRIMARILY
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS.

JAMES/BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 031337
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 15Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

EARLY ON THURSDAY STRONG CONVECTION HAD BEEN TIED CLOSELY TO THE
CENTER OF A SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR AROUND THE CIRCULATION HAD PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION...AND ONLY BRIEF TRAINING OF ECHOES
LEADING TO ISOLATED OBSERVED TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. TOWARD
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ROOTED CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE MAY FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING
STATES BORDERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT A GIVEN
POINT IS LOW HOWEVER...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SPARSE COVERAGE AND RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW.


...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE PLUME OF GREATEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAD BEEN SHUNTED
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS ARIZONA...ACTING TO SUSTAIN
PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER THE MORNING RAOBS. THE
MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY THAN
IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE EVEN THE
SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND I-8. A
LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB...SO
STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN NM...PRIMARILY
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS.

JAMES/BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 031337
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 15Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

EARLY ON THURSDAY STRONG CONVECTION HAD BEEN TIED CLOSELY TO THE
CENTER OF A SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR AROUND THE CIRCULATION HAD PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION...AND ONLY BRIEF TRAINING OF ECHOES
LEADING TO ISOLATED OBSERVED TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. TOWARD
MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ROOTED CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE MAY FORM ALONG A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING
STATES BORDERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT A GIVEN
POINT IS LOW HOWEVER...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SPARSE COVERAGE AND RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW.


...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN.
THE PLUME OF GREATEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAD BEEN SHUNTED
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS ARIZONA...ACTING TO SUSTAIN
PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER THE MORNING RAOBS. THE
MESOSCALE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS STRONGER TODAY THAN
IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WHERE EVEN THE
SSEO MEAN...AN AVERAGE OF SEVERAL MODELS...PRODUCES GENEROUS
COVERAGE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND I-8. A
LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB...SO
STORMS MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AZ TO WESTERN NM...PRIMARILY
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF CELL FORMATION PRIOR TO OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE...AND/OR DURING CELL MERGERS.

JAMES/BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

JAMES/HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556953 555947 554943 552936 546930 542931 539933
      533940 530943 527941 519940 515941 512943 508947 502957
      495972 490985 483999 480008 478017 477023 475027 468034
      465036 462039 462044 463045 465052 461060 461064 459067
      458072 460072 465077 470076 471081 470084 463084 459089
      453093 440092 437094 433094 429099 430101 432110 436119
      440119 440123 440128 432142 428148 423152 414158 412163
      413167 413172 418171 422169 421173 416183 415189 413193
      411205 411207 413208 416211 418209 420206 422202 426203
      428204 431203 434199 441186 445180 449177 452178 456177
      457174 461166 466162 471161 474160 478158 481163 486180
      488189 489194 488199 483203 479205 468210 459216 453215
      447217 442216 441220 442225 445226 454229 451232 447233
      441236 440242 438247 431249 426251 415257 406264 401268
      399272 397281 400287 402292 404294 407297 411298 420297
      427294 434291 439287 451280 460275 466273 470270 474267
      480267 485269 489276 493283 498289 501291 505290 509283
      515277 515272 518269 522264 523258 525254 528234 529229
      530225 534223 537215 540205 541193 541183 540172 536164
      534153 533149 533143 533130 529126 525125 521124 518122
      513116 511114 514111 517107 524092 525073 523070 521070
      519067 517069 513077 511080 508077 508065 509061 510053
      511048 513039 515030 518021 521012 524004 528000 544984
      551973 555966
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 468009 466006 459003 455000 449000 439999 431999
      425000 420001 418002 413006 403018 398025 395030 393034
      389038 384041 371046 363049 355046 351044 345043 335042
      328045 319046 315045 314048 316052 321057 325060 324063
      318070 313070 309067 302064 294064 280067 250052 242051
      236053 233055 232058 230062 230067 234072 240076 252089
      261098 265103 268105 271106 276107 278109 285114 288118
      292121 295124 299125 308126 311124 315125 327122 331122
      334124 336132 341134 346132 348129 352126 356127 359126
      365121 369118 372111 373106 377105 383101 387100 390098
      393099 395101 396096 400090 401085 402083 415076 430042
      433035 438031 451025 456022 462018 466016 468013
 0.01 452716 451709 450703 448698 446695 437694 434692 432688
      428685 424684 420681 417684 413689 410694 407698 405702
      397719 394726 390734 390738 392740 395745 398748 399753
      404758 409757 410754 412750 413747 414748 415755 414760
      411770 407775 404773 403769 399765 395766 390766 387767
      385765 380766 378766 376763 371758 367758 364757 357754
      351749 346745 342743 339740 332730 321717 314714 304716
      299724 299729 297731 293734 290736 288741 286750 287757
      286762 286767 284771 280776 274779 265782 260788 258794
      249795 246801 247807 249810 250813 253816 261821 272824
      278830 281834 284839 286843 287849 286856 284860 280865
      269876 265880 261888 259893 258901 257910 257915 259919
      260922 263925 274925 275923 279925 281925 283929 285932
      287936 283946 280954 276961 271964 264966 262968 262972
      267978 271980 275981 284980 288979 291977 313837 311825
      311822 313821 318820 321820 321824 322831 321835 321841
      323851 328860 334869 340877 345882 349886 353886 356885
      358882 361878 363874 362870 361867 355863 350861 347859
      346855 347851 350848 356843 362838 368831 371826 375823
      377824 378827 378836 379839 380841 382841 384844 387853
      392863 396870 404883 418910 428921 435927 443930 454930
      458926 459920 458913 457908 451902 445897 440893 433888
      432876 432870 434867 436867 443870 449870 454866 456869
      458869 462865 463861 463852 461846 458837 456831 455824
      454818 452812 449807 445804 437801 431800 432796 436790
      443779 446771 448762 449750 450744 450738 452716
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 393778 384775 381774 379773 377776 372781 365785 358790
      352794 345801 342806 334822 331831 332836 333838 335837
      347828 356815 365801 369793 374788 380782 383780 388779
      393778
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 535181 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132
      507132 504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180
      504183 508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189
      531190 534187
 0.25 534971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513004 518000 522994 526987 530980
      533973 534971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 495265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497096 498090 496086 493089 489096
      478105 469107 466107 463109 462113 459118 455125 450132
      448136 447141 454142 457144 458148 459152 462156 467154
      469150 471145 474142 477141 481141 485139 488138 490134
      491127 493123 497117 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 458854 456846 451840 445836 441829 439822 435819 432817
      428817 424818 418821 402823 399828 396835 394844 395851
      397855 400861 405865 409871 413879 416886 418895 427909
      431913 434915 438914 440912 440906 435899 427889 423881
      420872 414858 411852 411845 412840 414844 420846 429847
      432847 436851 440855 445858 455860 458857 458854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428707 425706 422707
      419712 417715 418718 421719 422722 426724 433725 437723
      440718 442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427013 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407030 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382064 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343104 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327080 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 306098 304104
      306110 311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117
      346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 263817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306813 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 285889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522981 522979 520979 518981 517983 515986 515987 514988
      514991 515992 516992 517991 518989 519989 520987 520986
      521983 522981
 0.50 486126 485123 483123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117
      472118 470121 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132
      483131 485128 486126
 0.50 455855 454847 449843 444841 440837 436834 431832 427836
      428841 430842 435845 438849 443853 448855 453856 455855
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373067
      373068 373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094 316095
      314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105 310107
      311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 320104
 0.50 314802 315795 314790 312785 311779 310772 308769 304766
      301768 297776 293784 291788 290793 290798 287801 286803
      289804 293807 297807 300806 303803 308803 311805 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281805 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281805
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 296916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555929 548924 546923 546919 547914
      547905 548899 548879 547869 545865 539866 534869 527873
      520878 509888 493896 482909 477912 473912 467911 464910
      460910 457914 453923 450934 447938 442941 438945 435949
      431953 426955 422957 419961 413968 407972 403978 397985
      394993 383010 375025 369033 359034 323051 320054 319059
      314066 304066 300063 295062 291063 286063 282064 277064
      261059 254055 247049 238046 232046 229049 227053 226058
      224065 225071 228076 232080 241084 267107 275112 278114
      283115 288115 292117 299120 307124 311122 315122 318119
      324118 329118 333117 337116 341119 346121 350120 354122
      359120 368114 389090 403078 409072 415067 422063 423059
      423053 421049 416047 406046 425015 430014 434016 435021
      439019 461021 466024 466029 461034 458036 456041 456054
      454066 453071 450072 447071 444070 441072 443075 448076
      452080 451085 447091 442089 434095 432097 435099 435102
      439105 438109 436112 438115 441120 442124 440127 438130
      436136 434149 434155 436160 441165 439170 436171 433169
      429170 425171 423175 413193 399206 398208 399211 401216
      404222 407226 411234 419240 427242 431239 432236 431234
      433233 437232 446230 453230 460228 467225 470223 474222
      493223 496227 497229 500230 502228 504219 501212 498208
      494204 488202 484203 481206 477208 472208 465210 461211
      458209 455206 457202 461195 468192 471191 474186 476160
      478156 484156 488156 492158 495160 498165 501169 504174
      505183 507188 515196 519199 522200 526196 528191 531192
      533187 535182 537181 538178 541167 541159 540155 537145
      533134 531131 529128 530124 533112
 0.01 533112 536102 538089 537078 535069 533067 532063 533059
      534050 531039 527039 525040 520040 517042 512037 509033
      509030 514025 525012 536000 540994 544987 552969 556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 449823 446822 443822 436822 430821
      422820 415820 411817 405814 403813 399816 395819 392824
      388829 387833 386839 386847 388854 391859 396865 402876
      410888 418898 422902 427907 432905 438907 440909 443909
      445906 444903 443894 446894 448892 449889 449886 446878
      438868 437866 440864 447860 451855 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 410741 407737 405736 402736 397739
      390750 388754 384758 380761 374761 369760 370754 369747
      366741 359737 353737 347738 341741 337737 333734 328731
      321725 317722 315720 314722 296731 291733 289729 287726
      284727 280729 275732 271735 269742 270749 271763 269767
      266769 265772 265776 265783 260785 257785 246802 244807
      244813 244821 248825 255831 260840 263845 263852 264859
      262866 262870 261876 258887 258896 255901 251905 249911
      249924 246935 235951 233954 231959 231966 233971 235977
      234984 232991 232000 237008 239012 243014 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 277017 281014 284010 281006 275003
      275000 272998 263994 257989 258985 264982 271982 275981
      284977 292971 295967 300964 303961 303956 305952 305938
      308926 310922 310916 311912 313913 319915 322909 324904
      324896 324886 324882 325879 328866 337861 342858 347857
      351859 355859 360852 370833 376823 384814 392807 399799
      405792 410783 413778 415769 416757
 0.25 546952 544941 539931 534923 532918 532912 531905 530900
      528898 526898 522902 516907 510911 496922 483932 470943
      464948 460949 455950 452948 450947 447949 441956 435962
      430968 431975 434976 438975 442971 446969 447970 444978
      443982 445987 446989 445993 444998 447002 450003 458003
      463002 468003 476007 483012 491015 499016 507012 514007
      519002 524996 531988 535980 539973 544960 546952
 0.25 523142 521134 516127 515124 514121 515118 519112 520108
      520102 515095 511089 509081 510075 508071 502070 497065
      493058 490051 488048 484047 473053 469059 468064 468072
      470090 471100 466108 457118 442146 441150 442154 444157
      448158 454155 459152 471145 478144 485146 493147 500150
      508151 514152 517150 521147 523142
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418198 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 394787 394782 390782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 387060 382060 376060 371057 368053
      365052 359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076
      324081 322086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109
      315109 321110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088
      357082 363081 368083 372085 379086 387082 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302803 301800 303798 300789 303778
      305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 281761 274772
      271783 271795 253807 258816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      283846 284852 285859 283864 277873 271884 269890 268896
      268911 266922 261935 256945 254951 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299897 300884 303854
      302847 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232059 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250076 252080 256088 267099 275104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 539960 540949 536943 528936 526928 525915 521913 517915
      507922 497929 479944 462961 454971 453978 457981 458991
      461992 465993 477995 482997 487002 496008 502008 508004
      516998 525989 532979 537968 539960
 0.50 508141 506120 507111 503104 494094 487108 482113 477117
      470120 465124 460128 456135 456140 460141 465139 469137
      472138 480138 497143 505143 508141
 0.50 483072 483070 483067 482066 481066 479067 478069 477070
      476071 475074 475076 474079 475081 475082 476083 478083
      480082 481080 481077 482075 482074 483072
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 529958 527958 520957 516955 513955 512952 509947
      502942 498941 496943 489947 483952 471962 469964 467971
      472979 475981 480982 487982 491982 497984 502990 504992
      505994 508993 513989 523977 527971 529965
 1.00 496128 498124 497121 494119 490120 487122 483123 480125
      477129 479132 484134 488134 492132 495130 496128
 1.50 489972 489970 487965 487962 484960 481961 479963 477964
      475967 477969 479971 481973 484973 487973 489972

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

JAMES/HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556953 555947 554943 552936 546930 542931 539933
      533940 530943 527941 519940 515941 512943 508947 502957
      495972 490985 483999 480008 478017 477023 475027 468034
      465036 462039 462044 463045 465052 461060 461064 459067
      458072 460072 465077 470076 471081 470084 463084 459089
      453093 440092 437094 433094 429099 430101 432110 436119
      440119 440123 440128 432142 428148 423152 414158 412163
      413167 413172 418171 422169 421173 416183 415189 413193
      411205 411207 413208 416211 418209 420206 422202 426203
      428204 431203 434199 441186 445180 449177 452178 456177
      457174 461166 466162 471161 474160 478158 481163 486180
      488189 489194 488199 483203 479205 468210 459216 453215
      447217 442216 441220 442225 445226 454229 451232 447233
      441236 440242 438247 431249 426251 415257 406264 401268
      399272 397281 400287 402292 404294 407297 411298 420297
      427294 434291 439287 451280 460275 466273 470270 474267
      480267 485269 489276 493283 498289 501291 505290 509283
      515277 515272 518269 522264 523258 525254 528234 529229
      530225 534223 537215 540205 541193 541183 540172 536164
      534153 533149 533143 533130 529126 525125 521124 518122
      513116 511114 514111 517107 524092 525073 523070 521070
      519067 517069 513077 511080 508077 508065 509061 510053
      511048 513039 515030 518021 521012 524004 528000 544984
      551973 555966
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 468009 466006 459003 455000 449000 439999 431999
      425000 420001 418002 413006 403018 398025 395030 393034
      389038 384041 371046 363049 355046 351044 345043 335042
      328045 319046 315045 314048 316052 321057 325060 324063
      318070 313070 309067 302064 294064 280067 250052 242051
      236053 233055 232058 230062 230067 234072 240076 252089
      261098 265103 268105 271106 276107 278109 285114 288118
      292121 295124 299125 308126 311124 315125 327122 331122
      334124 336132 341134 346132 348129 352126 356127 359126
      365121 369118 372111 373106 377105 383101 387100 390098
      393099 395101 396096 400090 401085 402083 415076 430042
      433035 438031 451025 456022 462018 466016 468013
 0.01 452716 451709 450703 448698 446695 437694 434692 432688
      428685 424684 420681 417684 413689 410694 407698 405702
      397719 394726 390734 390738 392740 395745 398748 399753
      404758 409757 410754 412750 413747 414748 415755 414760
      411770 407775 404773 403769 399765 395766 390766 387767
      385765 380766 378766 376763 371758 367758 364757 357754
      351749 346745 342743 339740 332730 321717 314714 304716
      299724 299729 297731 293734 290736 288741 286750 287757
      286762 286767 284771 280776 274779 265782 260788 258794
      249795 246801 247807 249810 250813 253816 261821 272824
      278830 281834 284839 286843 287849 286856 284860 280865
      269876 265880 261888 259893 258901 257910 257915 259919
      260922 263925 274925 275923 279925 281925 283929 285932
      287936 283946 280954 276961 271964 264966 262968 262972
      267978 271980 275981 284980 288979 291977 313837 311825
      311822 313821 318820 321820 321824 322831 321835 321841
      323851 328860 334869 340877 345882 349886 353886 356885
      358882 361878 363874 362870 361867 355863 350861 347859
      346855 347851 350848 356843 362838 368831 371826 375823
      377824 378827 378836 379839 380841 382841 384844 387853
      392863 396870 404883 418910 428921 435927 443930 454930
      458926 459920 458913 457908 451902 445897 440893 433888
      432876 432870 434867 436867 443870 449870 454866 456869
      458869 462865 463861 463852 461846 458837 456831 455824
      454818 452812 449807 445804 437801 431800 432796 436790
      443779 446771 448762 449750 450744 450738 452716
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 393778 384775 381774 379773 377776 372781 365785 358790
      352794 345801 342806 334822 331831 332836 333838 335837
      347828 356815 365801 369793 374788 380782 383780 388779
      393778
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 535181 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132
      507132 504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180
      504183 508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189
      531190 534187
 0.25 534971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513004 518000 522994 526987 530980
      533973 534971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 495265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497096 498090 496086 493089 489096
      478105 469107 466107 463109 462113 459118 455125 450132
      448136 447141 454142 457144 458148 459152 462156 467154
      469150 471145 474142 477141 481141 485139 488138 490134
      491127 493123 497117 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 458854 456846 451840 445836 441829 439822 435819 432817
      428817 424818 418821 402823 399828 396835 394844 395851
      397855 400861 405865 409871 413879 416886 418895 427909
      431913 434915 438914 440912 440906 435899 427889 423881
      420872 414858 411852 411845 412840 414844 420846 429847
      432847 436851 440855 445858 455860 458857 458854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428707 425706 422707
      419712 417715 418718 421719 422722 426724 433725 437723
      440718 442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427013 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407030 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382064 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343104 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327080 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 306098 304104
      306110 311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117
      346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 263817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306813 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 285889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522981 522979 520979 518981 517983 515986 515987 514988
      514991 515992 516992 517991 518989 519989 520987 520986
      521983 522981
 0.50 486126 485123 483123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117
      472118 470121 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132
      483131 485128 486126
 0.50 455855 454847 449843 444841 440837 436834 431832 427836
      428841 430842 435845 438849 443853 448855 453856 455855
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373067
      373068 373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094 316095
      314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105 310107
      311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 320104
 0.50 314802 315795 314790 312785 311779 310772 308769 304766
      301768 297776 293784 291788 290793 290798 287801 286803
      289804 293807 297807 300806 303803 308803 311805 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281805 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281805
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 296916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555929 548924 546923 546919 547914
      547905 548899 548879 547869 545865 539866 534869 527873
      520878 509888 493896 482909 477912 473912 467911 464910
      460910 457914 453923 450934 447938 442941 438945 435949
      431953 426955 422957 419961 413968 407972 403978 397985
      394993 383010 375025 369033 359034 323051 320054 319059
      314066 304066 300063 295062 291063 286063 282064 277064
      261059 254055 247049 238046 232046 229049 227053 226058
      224065 225071 228076 232080 241084 267107 275112 278114
      283115 288115 292117 299120 307124 311122 315122 318119
      324118 329118 333117 337116 341119 346121 350120 354122
      359120 368114 389090 403078 409072 415067 422063 423059
      423053 421049 416047 406046 425015 430014 434016 435021
      439019 461021 466024 466029 461034 458036 456041 456054
      454066 453071 450072 447071 444070 441072 443075 448076
      452080 451085 447091 442089 434095 432097 435099 435102
      439105 438109 436112 438115 441120 442124 440127 438130
      436136 434149 434155 436160 441165 439170 436171 433169
      429170 425171 423175 413193 399206 398208 399211 401216
      404222 407226 411234 419240 427242 431239 432236 431234
      433233 437232 446230 453230 460228 467225 470223 474222
      493223 496227 497229 500230 502228 504219 501212 498208
      494204 488202 484203 481206 477208 472208 465210 461211
      458209 455206 457202 461195 468192 471191 474186 476160
      478156 484156 488156 492158 495160 498165 501169 504174
      505183 507188 515196 519199 522200 526196 528191 531192
      533187 535182 537181 538178 541167 541159 540155 537145
      533134 531131 529128 530124 533112
 0.01 533112 536102 538089 537078 535069 533067 532063 533059
      534050 531039 527039 525040 520040 517042 512037 509033
      509030 514025 525012 536000 540994 544987 552969 556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 449823 446822 443822 436822 430821
      422820 415820 411817 405814 403813 399816 395819 392824
      388829 387833 386839 386847 388854 391859 396865 402876
      410888 418898 422902 427907 432905 438907 440909 443909
      445906 444903 443894 446894 448892 449889 449886 446878
      438868 437866 440864 447860 451855 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 410741 407737 405736 402736 397739
      390750 388754 384758 380761 374761 369760 370754 369747
      366741 359737 353737 347738 341741 337737 333734 328731
      321725 317722 315720 314722 296731 291733 289729 287726
      284727 280729 275732 271735 269742 270749 271763 269767
      266769 265772 265776 265783 260785 257785 246802 244807
      244813 244821 248825 255831 260840 263845 263852 264859
      262866 262870 261876 258887 258896 255901 251905 249911
      249924 246935 235951 233954 231959 231966 233971 235977
      234984 232991 232000 237008 239012 243014 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 277017 281014 284010 281006 275003
      275000 272998 263994 257989 258985 264982 271982 275981
      284977 292971 295967 300964 303961 303956 305952 305938
      308926 310922 310916 311912 313913 319915 322909 324904
      324896 324886 324882 325879 328866 337861 342858 347857
      351859 355859 360852 370833 376823 384814 392807 399799
      405792 410783 413778 415769 416757
 0.25 546952 544941 539931 534923 532918 532912 531905 530900
      528898 526898 522902 516907 510911 496922 483932 470943
      464948 460949 455950 452948 450947 447949 441956 435962
      430968 431975 434976 438975 442971 446969 447970 444978
      443982 445987 446989 445993 444998 447002 450003 458003
      463002 468003 476007 483012 491015 499016 507012 514007
      519002 524996 531988 535980 539973 544960 546952
 0.25 523142 521134 516127 515124 514121 515118 519112 520108
      520102 515095 511089 509081 510075 508071 502070 497065
      493058 490051 488048 484047 473053 469059 468064 468072
      470090 471100 466108 457118 442146 441150 442154 444157
      448158 454155 459152 471145 478144 485146 493147 500150
      508151 514152 517150 521147 523142
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418198 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 394787 394782 390782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 387060 382060 376060 371057 368053
      365052 359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076
      324081 322086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109
      315109 321110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088
      357082 363081 368083 372085 379086 387082 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302803 301800 303798 300789 303778
      305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 281761 274772
      271783 271795 253807 258816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      283846 284852 285859 283864 277873 271884 269890 268896
      268911 266922 261935 256945 254951 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299897 300884 303854
      302847 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232059 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250076 252080 256088 267099 275104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 539960 540949 536943 528936 526928 525915 521913 517915
      507922 497929 479944 462961 454971 453978 457981 458991
      461992 465993 477995 482997 487002 496008 502008 508004
      516998 525989 532979 537968 539960
 0.50 508141 506120 507111 503104 494094 487108 482113 477117
      470120 465124 460128 456135 456140 460141 465139 469137
      472138 480138 497143 505143 508141
 0.50 483072 483070 483067 482066 481066 479067 478069 477070
      476071 475074 475076 474079 475081 475082 476083 478083
      480082 481080 481077 482075 482074 483072
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 529958 527958 520957 516955 513955 512952 509947
      502942 498941 496943 489947 483952 471962 469964 467971
      472979 475981 480982 487982 491982 497984 502990 504992
      505994 508993 513989 523977 527971 529965
 1.00 496128 498124 497121 494119 490120 487122 483123 480125
      477129 479132 484134 488134 492132 495130 496128
 1.50 489972 489970 487965 487962 484960 481961 479963 477964
      475967 477969 479971 481973 484973 487973 489972

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

JAMES/HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556953 555947 554943 552936 546930 542931 539933
      533940 530943 527941 519940 515941 512943 508947 502957
      495972 490985 483999 480008 478017 477023 475027 468034
      465036 462039 462044 463045 465052 461060 461064 459067
      458072 460072 465077 470076 471081 470084 463084 459089
      453093 440092 437094 433094 429099 430101 432110 436119
      440119 440123 440128 432142 428148 423152 414158 412163
      413167 413172 418171 422169 421173 416183 415189 413193
      411205 411207 413208 416211 418209 420206 422202 426203
      428204 431203 434199 441186 445180 449177 452178 456177
      457174 461166 466162 471161 474160 478158 481163 486180
      488189 489194 488199 483203 479205 468210 459216 453215
      447217 442216 441220 442225 445226 454229 451232 447233
      441236 440242 438247 431249 426251 415257 406264 401268
      399272 397281 400287 402292 404294 407297 411298 420297
      427294 434291 439287 451280 460275 466273 470270 474267
      480267 485269 489276 493283 498289 501291 505290 509283
      515277 515272 518269 522264 523258 525254 528234 529229
      530225 534223 537215 540205 541193 541183 540172 536164
      534153 533149 533143 533130 529126 525125 521124 518122
      513116 511114 514111 517107 524092 525073 523070 521070
      519067 517069 513077 511080 508077 508065 509061 510053
      511048 513039 515030 518021 521012 524004 528000 544984
      551973 555966
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 468009 466006 459003 455000 449000 439999 431999
      425000 420001 418002 413006 403018 398025 395030 393034
      389038 384041 371046 363049 355046 351044 345043 335042
      328045 319046 315045 314048 316052 321057 325060 324063
      318070 313070 309067 302064 294064 280067 250052 242051
      236053 233055 232058 230062 230067 234072 240076 252089
      261098 265103 268105 271106 276107 278109 285114 288118
      292121 295124 299125 308126 311124 315125 327122 331122
      334124 336132 341134 346132 348129 352126 356127 359126
      365121 369118 372111 373106 377105 383101 387100 390098
      393099 395101 396096 400090 401085 402083 415076 430042
      433035 438031 451025 456022 462018 466016 468013
 0.01 452716 451709 450703 448698 446695 437694 434692 432688
      428685 424684 420681 417684 413689 410694 407698 405702
      397719 394726 390734 390738 392740 395745 398748 399753
      404758 409757 410754 412750 413747 414748 415755 414760
      411770 407775 404773 403769 399765 395766 390766 387767
      385765 380766 378766 376763 371758 367758 364757 357754
      351749 346745 342743 339740 332730 321717 314714 304716
      299724 299729 297731 293734 290736 288741 286750 287757
      286762 286767 284771 280776 274779 265782 260788 258794
      249795 246801 247807 249810 250813 253816 261821 272824
      278830 281834 284839 286843 287849 286856 284860 280865
      269876 265880 261888 259893 258901 257910 257915 259919
      260922 263925 274925 275923 279925 281925 283929 285932
      287936 283946 280954 276961 271964 264966 262968 262972
      267978 271980 275981 284980 288979 291977 313837 311825
      311822 313821 318820 321820 321824 322831 321835 321841
      323851 328860 334869 340877 345882 349886 353886 356885
      358882 361878 363874 362870 361867 355863 350861 347859
      346855 347851 350848 356843 362838 368831 371826 375823
      377824 378827 378836 379839 380841 382841 384844 387853
      392863 396870 404883 418910 428921 435927 443930 454930
      458926 459920 458913 457908 451902 445897 440893 433888
      432876 432870 434867 436867 443870 449870 454866 456869
      458869 462865 463861 463852 461846 458837 456831 455824
      454818 452812 449807 445804 437801 431800 432796 436790
      443779 446771 448762 449750 450744 450738 452716
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 393778 384775 381774 379773 377776 372781 365785 358790
      352794 345801 342806 334822 331831 332836 333838 335837
      347828 356815 365801 369793 374788 380782 383780 388779
      393778
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 535181 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132
      507132 504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180
      504183 508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189
      531190 534187
 0.25 534971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513004 518000 522994 526987 530980
      533973 534971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 495265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497096 498090 496086 493089 489096
      478105 469107 466107 463109 462113 459118 455125 450132
      448136 447141 454142 457144 458148 459152 462156 467154
      469150 471145 474142 477141 481141 485139 488138 490134
      491127 493123 497117 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 458854 456846 451840 445836 441829 439822 435819 432817
      428817 424818 418821 402823 399828 396835 394844 395851
      397855 400861 405865 409871 413879 416886 418895 427909
      431913 434915 438914 440912 440906 435899 427889 423881
      420872 414858 411852 411845 412840 414844 420846 429847
      432847 436851 440855 445858 455860 458857 458854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428707 425706 422707
      419712 417715 418718 421719 422722 426724 433725 437723
      440718 442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427013 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407030 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382064 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343104 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327080 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 306098 304104
      306110 311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117
      346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 263817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306813 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 285889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522981 522979 520979 518981 517983 515986 515987 514988
      514991 515992 516992 517991 518989 519989 520987 520986
      521983 522981
 0.50 486126 485123 483123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117
      472118 470121 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132
      483131 485128 486126
 0.50 455855 454847 449843 444841 440837 436834 431832 427836
      428841 430842 435845 438849 443853 448855 453856 455855
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373067
      373068 373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094 316095
      314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105 310107
      311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 320104
 0.50 314802 315795 314790 312785 311779 310772 308769 304766
      301768 297776 293784 291788 290793 290798 287801 286803
      289804 293807 297807 300806 303803 308803 311805 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281805 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281805
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 296916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555929 548924 546923 546919 547914
      547905 548899 548879 547869 545865 539866 534869 527873
      520878 509888 493896 482909 477912 473912 467911 464910
      460910 457914 453923 450934 447938 442941 438945 435949
      431953 426955 422957 419961 413968 407972 403978 397985
      394993 383010 375025 369033 359034 323051 320054 319059
      314066 304066 300063 295062 291063 286063 282064 277064
      261059 254055 247049 238046 232046 229049 227053 226058
      224065 225071 228076 232080 241084 267107 275112 278114
      283115 288115 292117 299120 307124 311122 315122 318119
      324118 329118 333117 337116 341119 346121 350120 354122
      359120 368114 389090 403078 409072 415067 422063 423059
      423053 421049 416047 406046 425015 430014 434016 435021
      439019 461021 466024 466029 461034 458036 456041 456054
      454066 453071 450072 447071 444070 441072 443075 448076
      452080 451085 447091 442089 434095 432097 435099 435102
      439105 438109 436112 438115 441120 442124 440127 438130
      436136 434149 434155 436160 441165 439170 436171 433169
      429170 425171 423175 413193 399206 398208 399211 401216
      404222 407226 411234 419240 427242 431239 432236 431234
      433233 437232 446230 453230 460228 467225 470223 474222
      493223 496227 497229 500230 502228 504219 501212 498208
      494204 488202 484203 481206 477208 472208 465210 461211
      458209 455206 457202 461195 468192 471191 474186 476160
      478156 484156 488156 492158 495160 498165 501169 504174
      505183 507188 515196 519199 522200 526196 528191 531192
      533187 535182 537181 538178 541167 541159 540155 537145
      533134 531131 529128 530124 533112
 0.01 533112 536102 538089 537078 535069 533067 532063 533059
      534050 531039 527039 525040 520040 517042 512037 509033
      509030 514025 525012 536000 540994 544987 552969 556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 449823 446822 443822 436822 430821
      422820 415820 411817 405814 403813 399816 395819 392824
      388829 387833 386839 386847 388854 391859 396865 402876
      410888 418898 422902 427907 432905 438907 440909 443909
      445906 444903 443894 446894 448892 449889 449886 446878
      438868 437866 440864 447860 451855 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 410741 407737 405736 402736 397739
      390750 388754 384758 380761 374761 369760 370754 369747
      366741 359737 353737 347738 341741 337737 333734 328731
      321725 317722 315720 314722 296731 291733 289729 287726
      284727 280729 275732 271735 269742 270749 271763 269767
      266769 265772 265776 265783 260785 257785 246802 244807
      244813 244821 248825 255831 260840 263845 263852 264859
      262866 262870 261876 258887 258896 255901 251905 249911
      249924 246935 235951 233954 231959 231966 233971 235977
      234984 232991 232000 237008 239012 243014 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 277017 281014 284010 281006 275003
      275000 272998 263994 257989 258985 264982 271982 275981
      284977 292971 295967 300964 303961 303956 305952 305938
      308926 310922 310916 311912 313913 319915 322909 324904
      324896 324886 324882 325879 328866 337861 342858 347857
      351859 355859 360852 370833 376823 384814 392807 399799
      405792 410783 413778 415769 416757
 0.25 546952 544941 539931 534923 532918 532912 531905 530900
      528898 526898 522902 516907 510911 496922 483932 470943
      464948 460949 455950 452948 450947 447949 441956 435962
      430968 431975 434976 438975 442971 446969 447970 444978
      443982 445987 446989 445993 444998 447002 450003 458003
      463002 468003 476007 483012 491015 499016 507012 514007
      519002 524996 531988 535980 539973 544960 546952
 0.25 523142 521134 516127 515124 514121 515118 519112 520108
      520102 515095 511089 509081 510075 508071 502070 497065
      493058 490051 488048 484047 473053 469059 468064 468072
      470090 471100 466108 457118 442146 441150 442154 444157
      448158 454155 459152 471145 478144 485146 493147 500150
      508151 514152 517150 521147 523142
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418198 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 394787 394782 390782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 387060 382060 376060 371057 368053
      365052 359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076
      324081 322086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109
      315109 321110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088
      357082 363081 368083 372085 379086 387082 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302803 301800 303798 300789 303778
      305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 281761 274772
      271783 271795 253807 258816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      283846 284852 285859 283864 277873 271884 269890 268896
      268911 266922 261935 256945 254951 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299897 300884 303854
      302847 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232059 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250076 252080 256088 267099 275104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 539960 540949 536943 528936 526928 525915 521913 517915
      507922 497929 479944 462961 454971 453978 457981 458991
      461992 465993 477995 482997 487002 496008 502008 508004
      516998 525989 532979 537968 539960
 0.50 508141 506120 507111 503104 494094 487108 482113 477117
      470120 465124 460128 456135 456140 460141 465139 469137
      472138 480138 497143 505143 508141
 0.50 483072 483070 483067 482066 481066 479067 478069 477070
      476071 475074 475076 474079 475081 475082 476083 478083
      480082 481080 481077 482075 482074 483072
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 529958 527958 520957 516955 513955 512952 509947
      502942 498941 496943 489947 483952 471962 469964 467971
      472979 475981 480982 487982 491982 497984 502990 504992
      505994 508993 513989 523977 527971 529965
 1.00 496128 498124 497121 494119 490120 487122 483123 480125
      477129 479132 484134 488134 492132 495130 496128
 1.50 489972 489970 487965 487962 484960 481961 479963 477964
      475967 477969 479971 481973 484973 487973 489972

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
502 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

JAMES/HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556953 555947 554943 552936 546930 542931 539933
      533940 530943 527941 519940 515941 512943 508947 502957
      495972 490985 483999 480008 478017 477023 475027 468034
      465036 462039 462044 463045 465052 461060 461064 459067
      458072 460072 465077 470076 471081 470084 463084 459089
      453093 440092 437094 433094 429099 430101 432110 436119
      440119 440123 440128 432142 428148 423152 414158 412163
      413167 413172 418171 422169 421173 416183 415189 413193
      411205 411207 413208 416211 418209 420206 422202 426203
      428204 431203 434199 441186 445180 449177 452178 456177
      457174 461166 466162 471161 474160 478158 481163 486180
      488189 489194 488199 483203 479205 468210 459216 453215
      447217 442216 441220 442225 445226 454229 451232 447233
      441236 440242 438247 431249 426251 415257 406264 401268
      399272 397281 400287 402292 404294 407297 411298 420297
      427294 434291 439287 451280 460275 466273 470270 474267
      480267 485269 489276 493283 498289 501291 505290 509283
      515277 515272 518269 522264 523258 525254 528234 529229
      530225 534223 537215 540205 541193 541183 540172 536164
      534153 533149 533143 533130 529126 525125 521124 518122
      513116 511114 514111 517107 524092 525073 523070 521070
      519067 517069 513077 511080 508077 508065 509061 510053
      511048 513039 515030 518021 521012 524004 528000 544984
      551973 555966
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 468009 466006 459003 455000 449000 439999 431999
      425000 420001 418002 413006 403018 398025 395030 393034
      389038 384041 371046 363049 355046 351044 345043 335042
      328045 319046 315045 314048 316052 321057 325060 324063
      318070 313070 309067 302064 294064 280067 250052 242051
      236053 233055 232058 230062 230067 234072 240076 252089
      261098 265103 268105 271106 276107 278109 285114 288118
      292121 295124 299125 308126 311124 315125 327122 331122
      334124 336132 341134 346132 348129 352126 356127 359126
      365121 369118 372111 373106 377105 383101 387100 390098
      393099 395101 396096 400090 401085 402083 415076 430042
      433035 438031 451025 456022 462018 466016 468013
 0.01 452716 451709 450703 448698 446695 437694 434692 432688
      428685 424684 420681 417684 413689 410694 407698 405702
      397719 394726 390734 390738 392740 395745 398748 399753
      404758 409757 410754 412750 413747 414748 415755 414760
      411770 407775 404773 403769 399765 395766 390766 387767
      385765 380766 378766 376763 371758 367758 364757 357754
      351749 346745 342743 339740 332730 321717 314714 304716
      299724 299729 297731 293734 290736 288741 286750 287757
      286762 286767 284771 280776 274779 265782 260788 258794
      249795 246801 247807 249810 250813 253816 261821 272824
      278830 281834 284839 286843 287849 286856 284860 280865
      269876 265880 261888 259893 258901 257910 257915 259919
      260922 263925 274925 275923 279925 281925 283929 285932
      287936 283946 280954 276961 271964 264966 262968 262972
      267978 271980 275981 284980 288979 291977 313837 311825
      311822 313821 318820 321820 321824 322831 321835 321841
      323851 328860 334869 340877 345882 349886 353886 356885
      358882 361878 363874 362870 361867 355863 350861 347859
      346855 347851 350848 356843 362838 368831 371826 375823
      377824 378827 378836 379839 380841 382841 384844 387853
      392863 396870 404883 418910 428921 435927 443930 454930
      458926 459920 458913 457908 451902 445897 440893 433888
      432876 432870 434867 436867 443870 449870 454866 456869
      458869 462865 463861 463852 461846 458837 456831 455824
      454818 452812 449807 445804 437801 431800 432796 436790
      443779 446771 448762 449750 450744 450738 452716
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 393778 384775 381774 379773 377776 372781 365785 358790
      352794 345801 342806 334822 331831 332836 333838 335837
      347828 356815 365801 369793 374788 380782 383780 388779
      393778
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 535181 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132
      507132 504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180
      504183 508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189
      531190 534187
 0.25 534971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513004 518000 522994 526987 530980
      533973 534971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 495265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497096 498090 496086 493089 489096
      478105 469107 466107 463109 462113 459118 455125 450132
      448136 447141 454142 457144 458148 459152 462156 467154
      469150 471145 474142 477141 481141 485139 488138 490134
      491127 493123 497117 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 458854 456846 451840 445836 441829 439822 435819 432817
      428817 424818 418821 402823 399828 396835 394844 395851
      397855 400861 405865 409871 413879 416886 418895 427909
      431913 434915 438914 440912 440906 435899 427889 423881
      420872 414858 411852 411845 412840 414844 420846 429847
      432847 436851 440855 445858 455860 458857 458854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428707 425706 422707
      419712 417715 418718 421719 422722 426724 433725 437723
      440718 442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427013 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407030 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382064 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343104 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327080 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 306098 304104
      306110 311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117
      346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 263817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306813 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 285889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522981 522979 520979 518981 517983 515986 515987 514988
      514991 515992 516992 517991 518989 519989 520987 520986
      521983 522981
 0.50 486126 485123 483123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117
      472118 470121 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132
      483131 485128 486126
 0.50 455855 454847 449843 444841 440837 436834 431832 427836
      428841 430842 435845 438849 443853 448855 453856 455855
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373067
      373068 373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094 316095
      314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105 310107
      311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 320104
 0.50 314802 315795 314790 312785 311779 310772 308769 304766
      301768 297776 293784 291788 290793 290798 287801 286803
      289804 293807 297807 300806 303803 308803 311805 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281805 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281805
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 296916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555929 548924 546923 546919 547914
      547905 548899 548879 547869 545865 539866 534869 527873
      520878 509888 493896 482909 477912 473912 467911 464910
      460910 457914 453923 450934 447938 442941 438945 435949
      431953 426955 422957 419961 413968 407972 403978 397985
      394993 383010 375025 369033 359034 323051 320054 319059
      314066 304066 300063 295062 291063 286063 282064 277064
      261059 254055 247049 238046 232046 229049 227053 226058
      224065 225071 228076 232080 241084 267107 275112 278114
      283115 288115 292117 299120 307124 311122 315122 318119
      324118 329118 333117 337116 341119 346121 350120 354122
      359120 368114 389090 403078 409072 415067 422063 423059
      423053 421049 416047 406046 425015 430014 434016 435021
      439019 461021 466024 466029 461034 458036 456041 456054
      454066 453071 450072 447071 444070 441072 443075 448076
      452080 451085 447091 442089 434095 432097 435099 435102
      439105 438109 436112 438115 441120 442124 440127 438130
      436136 434149 434155 436160 441165 439170 436171 433169
      429170 425171 423175 413193 399206 398208 399211 401216
      404222 407226 411234 419240 427242 431239 432236 431234
      433233 437232 446230 453230 460228 467225 470223 474222
      493223 496227 497229 500230 502228 504219 501212 498208
      494204 488202 484203 481206 477208 472208 465210 461211
      458209 455206 457202 461195 468192 471191 474186 476160
      478156 484156 488156 492158 495160 498165 501169 504174
      505183 507188 515196 519199 522200 526196 528191 531192
      533187 535182 537181 538178 541167 541159 540155 537145
      533134 531131 529128 530124 533112
 0.01 533112 536102 538089 537078 535069 533067 532063 533059
      534050 531039 527039 525040 520040 517042 512037 509033
      509030 514025 525012 536000 540994 544987 552969 556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 449823 446822 443822 436822 430821
      422820 415820 411817 405814 403813 399816 395819 392824
      388829 387833 386839 386847 388854 391859 396865 402876
      410888 418898 422902 427907 432905 438907 440909 443909
      445906 444903 443894 446894 448892 449889 449886 446878
      438868 437866 440864 447860 451855 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 410741 407737 405736 402736 397739
      390750 388754 384758 380761 374761 369760 370754 369747
      366741 359737 353737 347738 341741 337737 333734 328731
      321725 317722 315720 314722 296731 291733 289729 287726
      284727 280729 275732 271735 269742 270749 271763 269767
      266769 265772 265776 265783 260785 257785 246802 244807
      244813 244821 248825 255831 260840 263845 263852 264859
      262866 262870 261876 258887 258896 255901 251905 249911
      249924 246935 235951 233954 231959 231966 233971 235977
      234984 232991 232000 237008 239012 243014 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 277017 281014 284010 281006 275003
      275000 272998 263994 257989 258985 264982 271982 275981
      284977 292971 295967 300964 303961 303956 305952 305938
      308926 310922 310916 311912 313913 319915 322909 324904
      324896 324886 324882 325879 328866 337861 342858 347857
      351859 355859 360852 370833 376823 384814 392807 399799
      405792 410783 413778 415769 416757
 0.25 546952 544941 539931 534923 532918 532912 531905 530900
      528898 526898 522902 516907 510911 496922 483932 470943
      464948 460949 455950 452948 450947 447949 441956 435962
      430968 431975 434976 438975 442971 446969 447970 444978
      443982 445987 446989 445993 444998 447002 450003 458003
      463002 468003 476007 483012 491015 499016 507012 514007
      519002 524996 531988 535980 539973 544960 546952
 0.25 523142 521134 516127 515124 514121 515118 519112 520108
      520102 515095 511089 509081 510075 508071 502070 497065
      493058 490051 488048 484047 473053 469059 468064 468072
      470090 471100 466108 457118 442146 441150 442154 444157
      448158 454155 459152 471145 478144 485146 493147 500150
      508151 514152 517150 521147 523142
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418198 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 394787 394782 390782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 387060 382060 376060 371057 368053
      365052 359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076
      324081 322086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109
      315109 321110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088
      357082 363081 368083 372085 379086 387082 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302803 301800 303798 300789 303778
      305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 281761 274772
      271783 271795 253807 258816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      283846 284852 285859 283864 277873 271884 269890 268896
      268911 266922 261935 256945 254951 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299897 300884 303854
      302847 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232059 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250076 252080 256088 267099 275104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 539960 540949 536943 528936 526928 525915 521913 517915
      507922 497929 479944 462961 454971 453978 457981 458991
      461992 465993 477995 482997 487002 496008 502008 508004
      516998 525989 532979 537968 539960
 0.50 508141 506120 507111 503104 494094 487108 482113 477117
      470120 465124 460128 456135 456140 460141 465139 469137
      472138 480138 497143 505143 508141
 0.50 483072 483070 483067 482066 481066 479067 478069 477070
      476071 475074 475076 474079 475081 475082 476083 478083
      480082 481080 481077 482075 482074 483072
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 529958 527958 520957 516955 513955 512952 509947
      502942 498941 496943 489947 483952 471962 469964 467971
      472979 475981 480982 487982 491982 497984 502990 504992
      505994 508993 513989 523977 527971 529965
 1.00 496128 498124 497121 494119 490120 487122 483123 480125
      477129 479132 484134 488134 492132 495130 496128
 1.50 489972 489970 487965 487962 484960 481961 479963 477964
      475967 477969 479971 481973 484973 487973 489972

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555928 549924 546923 546919 547913
      547903 548898 548877 547868 544865 537866 533869 526873
      519879 509888 493896 488902 482911 471923 464930 457934
      447938 442942 438946 430953 423956 417963 411969 406974
      401979 396986 392995 381013 377019 373028 371032 367033
      360033 356035 346039 335045 327048 323050 320054 319058
      317061 315065 310066 292063 282064 273062 265061 257057
      244048 240046 233046 230048 227051 225058 224066 225071
      228077 236082 244086 256098 270109 303121 306123 309123
      315122 317121 319118 322118 328118 335116 345121 354121
      359120 363117 367115 371112 376105 381099 387092 391088
      417067 421065 423061 423053 422050 420048 417047 412047
      407046 402045 402041 403039 409036 413034 416031 422019
      425015 430014 434016 435021 439019 444020 454020 463021
      464029 457038 454064 453070 452072 449072 445070 443070
      441072 443074 447075 450078 452081 451085 448090 445091
      444089 440091 433097 439105 439109 436112 441120 442125
      439128 436136 434149 434155 435158 440162 441164 441168
      437171 434169 427170 422178 417186 415191 411195 403202
      399206 398208 400211 401217 404221 409230 414236 422241
      427242 430241 432239 432236 432233 434233 438232 445231
      455229 463227 469223 477221 485221 491222 494223 495226
      498230 502228 504218 501211 498208 494204 489202 485202
      482205 478207 470208 463210 460211 458209 456207 455205
      457199 461196 464194 471191 474186 474181 475170 475163
      477157 485155 491157 494159 500168 504174 505183 507188
      510191 517198 522200 524198 526193 529191 531192 534184
      538178 541164 541157 539151 536141 532132 530131 529127
      530123 531120 532114 534109
 0.01 534109 538089 537078 535069 533068 533060 534056 534050
      531041 530039 526039 520041 517042 515040 510034 509032
      511028 521018 525012 529008 539996 543989 546982 552966
      556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 448823 443821 436822 422820 415819
      411816 405814 403813 399815 395819 391824 388830 387833
      386839 386846 388854 396866 402876 410888 418898 422902
      427907 433905 438907 440909 443909 445906 444902 442895
      446894 448892 449889 449886 446878 438868 437866 440864
      447860 451856 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 411741 407737 404736 400736 396740
      390751 387755 383758 380761 375761 370760 370756 370748
      366741 359737 353737 347738 342741 336736 332732 328731
      315720 307726 296731 291733 288728 287726 285726 281727
      280729 276730 275732 270737 269742 270750 271763 265772
      265779 264784 257785 246802 244808 244813 244821 248825
      253829 256834 259838 262841 263853 264860 262866 262871
      261876 258887 258895 254901 251906 249911 249923 247934
      245939 242943 235951 233954 231959 231966 232969 233971
      235979 233987 232993 232001 238009 244015 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 276017 282014 284010 280005 271998
      263994 257989 259984 263982 271982 275981 284977 292970
      295967 301964 305952 305943 305939 307937 307929 309925
      310920 311913 319915 322909 324907 324903 324896 324886
      324882 325879 328865 345857 354860 360852 370833 377823
      385813 392807 397801 405792 410783 413778 414774 415769
      416757
 0.25 546957 547950 546942 542931 538923 532918 531902 529898
      524900 512911 506916 502919 497921 491924 484928 472942
      467948 459951 451949 447951 443954 431965 430968 429973
      431976 433976 437973 444969 447968 447972 443980 445992
      444997 446001 448003 453003 461002 467003 471004 485012
      494015 500014 504012 510009 516004 523998 529990 538976
      543966 546957
 0.25 522141 520133 515126 511119 509111 507089 509081 510074
      509068 503066 496061 489048 484044 479042 474043 470046
      466053 463062 463069 463075 468090 469094 470100 465109
      456118 452124 447132 444139 441147 441152 442156 445158
      449157 455155 460152 473146 480145 486145 494147 502150
      509151 514149 519146 522141
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418199 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 415870 415864 413860 409854 407851 407846 410838 408834
      405832 400833 398836 397840 396844 399853 403859 405867
      411872 413873 415870
 0.25 394787 394782 389782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 382060 376060 371057 367053 365052
      359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076 324081
      321086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109 315109
      322110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088 357082
      363081 368083 373085 379086 387081 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302802 301800 303798 301792 300788
      303778 305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 280761
      274772 271781 271788 271795 271799 269801 262801 257801
      253803 253807 256813 259816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      284850 285858 283864 277873 271885 269890 268897 268911
      266922 261936 256946 254950 254954 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299899 300884 303853
      302846 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232060 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250077 252080 256088 267099 276104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 543952 541945 537939 529931 525914 522913 518914 513917
      504925 494930 489933 484939 480944 477947 467956 459964
      455969 453976 454979 457981 458984 458988 481997 485002
      491005 497006 502005 513999 521992 530982 536972 540960
      543952
 0.50 504135 505129 505123 504113 502103 499097 497093 494091
      490090 487092 486104 483113 477116 472118 461126 455132
      452139 452144 456146 463144 469141 475140 483139 490140
      497140 501139 503137 504135
 0.50 482075 483067 481062 479059 475056 473057 470061 469068
      471073 473078 475082 480082 482077 482075
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 528960 524957 521955 520950 519946 514944 508942
      501938 494940 488947 482951 471961 468964 466969 466971
      469974 472983 479985 483986 487989 491995 494997 498998
      503996 511991 516986 525973 529965
 1.00 498126 497120 494117 491117 487119 484121 480123 476126
      474129 476133 481134 486134 489133 493131 496128 498126
 1.50 494975 494967 492960 491954 489952 486953 481957 477959
      472963 471966 471969 476971 475977 481979 486980 490979
      494975

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY DURING DAY 2 (FRI AND FRI NIGHT)...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY DAY 3 (SAT-SAT NIGHT)...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT E-NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE SPREAD BY DAY 3 IN TERMS OF
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. PER THE
LATEST PMDHMD...THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND AS A RESULT THE QPF DURING BOTH DAYS
2 AND 3 WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING SOME CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
FLOW AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT. FAVORABLE
ALONG-STREAM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS NOTED BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEPENING S/SW
PRE-TROUGH FLOW AND WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PW AND 850-500 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF DETAILS...FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST OCCURS DURING DAY 2 WITH THE
LEAD CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE THAT COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. AN ENSUING 30-40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO POOL PWS OF ~1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS
WITH THIS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AS
FCST MUCAPES ARE CONSERVATIVELY ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. WPC QPF NOTED HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...ALONG
THE LLJ AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS OF 1-1.5" WERE NOTED ON DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE MATURE CONVEYOR BELT
STRUCTURE (BAROCLINIC LEAF) WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
PORTION OF THE WCB PULLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MT (DEEPENING
TROWAL). THIS WILL FAVOR DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL OVER THIS
REGION...THOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH
THE QPF DETAILS. WPC INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THIS AREA DURING DAY 3...IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
(NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN) DURING DAY 3 WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND MCS INITIATION) IN WHAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 556958 556952 555945 555928 549924 546923 546919 547913
      547903 548898 548877 547868 544865 537866 533869 526873
      519879 509888 493896 488902 482911 471923 464930 457934
      447938 442942 438946 430953 423956 417963 411969 406974
      401979 396986 392995 381013 377019 373028 371032 367033
      360033 356035 346039 335045 327048 323050 320054 319058
      317061 315065 310066 292063 282064 273062 265061 257057
      244048 240046 233046 230048 227051 225058 224066 225071
      228077 236082 244086 256098 270109 303121 306123 309123
      315122 317121 319118 322118 328118 335116 345121 354121
      359120 363117 367115 371112 376105 381099 387092 391088
      417067 421065 423061 423053 422050 420048 417047 412047
      407046 402045 402041 403039 409036 413034 416031 422019
      425015 430014 434016 435021 439019 444020 454020 463021
      464029 457038 454064 453070 452072 449072 445070 443070
      441072 443074 447075 450078 452081 451085 448090 445091
      444089 440091 433097 439105 439109 436112 441120 442125
      439128 436136 434149 434155 435158 440162 441164 441168
      437171 434169 427170 422178 417186 415191 411195 403202
      399206 398208 400211 401217 404221 409230 414236 422241
      427242 430241 432239 432236 432233 434233 438232 445231
      455229 463227 469223 477221 485221 491222 494223 495226
      498230 502228 504218 501211 498208 494204 489202 485202
      482205 478207 470208 463210 460211 458209 456207 455205
      457199 461196 464194 471191 474186 474181 475170 475163
      477157 485155 491157 494159 500168 504174 505183 507188
      510191 517198 522200 524198 526193 529191 531192 534184
      538178 541164 541157 539151 536141 532132 530131 529127
      530123 531120 532114 534109
 0.01 534109 538089 537078 535069 533068 533060 534056 534050
      531041 530039 526039 520041 517042 515040 510034 509032
      511028 521018 525012 529008 539996 543989 546982 552966
      556958
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 478232 476232 474233 473233
      471233 469234 468235 467236 465236 465237 467238 468238
      470239 472239 473240 475240 477239 479239 479238
 0.01 455835 454833 453828 448823 443821 436822 422820 415819
      411816 405814 403813 399815 395819 391824 388830 387833
      386839 386846 388854 396866 402876 410888 418898 422902
      427907 433905 438907 440909 443909 445906 444902 442895
      446894 448892 449889 449886 446878 438868 437866 440864
      447860 451856 453850 452840 455835
 0.01 416757 416750 413746 411741 407737 404736 400736 396740
      390751 387755 383758 380761 375761 370760 370756 370748
      366741 359737 353737 347738 342741 336736 332732 328731
      315720 307726 296731 291733 288728 287726 285726 281727
      280729 276730 275732 270737 269742 270750 271763 265772
      265779 264784 257785 246802 244808 244813 244821 248825
      253829 256834 259838 262841 263853 264860 262866 262871
      261876 258887 258895 254901 251906 249911 249923 247934
      245939 242943 235951 233954 231959 231966 232969 233971
      235979 233987 232993 232001 238009 244015 252020 255019
      261019 267019 272018 276017 282014 284010 280005 271998
      263994 257989 259984 263982 271982 275981 284977 292970
      295967 301964 305952 305943 305939 307937 307929 309925
      310920 311913 319915 322909 324907 324903 324896 324886
      324882 325879 328865 345857 354860 360852 370833 377823
      385813 392807 397801 405792 410783 413778 414774 415769
      416757
 0.25 546957 547950 546942 542931 538923 532918 531902 529898
      524900 512911 506916 502919 497921 491924 484928 472942
      467948 459951 451949 447951 443954 431965 430968 429973
      431976 433976 437973 444969 447968 447972 443980 445992
      444997 446001 448003 453003 461002 467003 471004 485012
      494015 500014 504012 510009 516004 523998 529990 538976
      543966 546957
 0.25 522141 520133 515126 511119 509111 507089 509081 510074
      509068 503066 496061 489048 484044 479042 474043 470046
      466053 463062 463069 463075 468090 469094 470100 465109
      456118 452124 447132 444139 441147 441152 442156 445158
      449157 455155 460152 473146 480145 486145 494147 502150
      509151 514149 519146 522141
 0.25 454176 455174 455172 454171 453169 451170 451171 450173
      449175 449177 448180 448181 450182 451180 452180 453178
      454176 454176
 0.25 448199 450196 449192 449187 447185 444185 441185 437184
      434185 426187 423190 421195 418199 415200 412203 411208
      415211 420211 424211 428213 439214 443208 446202 448199
 0.25 415870 415864 413860 409854 407851 407846 410838 408834
      405832 400833 398836 397840 396844 399853 403859 405867
      411872 413873 415870
 0.25 394787 394782 389782 385782 381783 370792 365798 360801
      354806 350811 346819 343825 342830 342834 346838 350838
      353835 357830 366818 370812 376808 384805 388801 392793
      394787
 0.25 392077 394069 393061 382060 376060 371057 367053 365052
      359053 355058 355063 353067 344072 333074 328076 324081
      321086 318088 314091 309095 306099 306105 309109 315109
      322110 327109 337106 341103 344098 346093 350088 357082
      363081 368083 373085 379086 387081 391080 392077
 0.25 312816 310811 305808 302802 301800 303798 301792 300788
      303778 305750 301748 297751 294754 291755 284758 280761
      274772 271781 271788 271795 271799 269801 262801 257801
      253803 253807 256813 259816 268820 271823 274828 280841
      284850 285858 283864 277873 271885 269890 268897 268911
      266922 261936 256946 254950 254954 255958 260959 265956
      273947 285931 291921 294916 296909 299899 300884 303853
      302846 301840 300834 305831 307827 309822 312816
 0.25 303082 303077 301073 296072 291072 281072 271071 254065
      247059 241054 237053 233054 232060 233063 236067 240069
      247074 250077 252080 256088 267099 276104 279105 283103
      285101 287096 293090 303082
 0.25 278805 278804 276804 274804 274805 276805 278805 278805
 0.25 250004 251002 249000 247998 246998 246997 244996 242997
      242998 240000 241002 242002 244004 245004 247005 249004
      250004
 0.50 543952 541945 537939 529931 525914 522913 518914 513917
      504925 494930 489933 484939 480944 477947 467956 459964
      455969 453976 454979 457981 458984 458988 481997 485002
      491005 497006 502005 513999 521992 530982 536972 540960
      543952
 0.50 504135 505129 505123 504113 502103 499097 497093 494091
      490090 487092 486104 483113 477116 472118 461126 455132
      452139 452144 456146 463144 469141 475140 483139 490140
      497140 501139 503137 504135
 0.50 482075 483067 481062 479059 475056 473057 470061 469068
      471073 473078 475082 480082 482077 482075
 0.50 441195 440194 438193 436193 435193 434193 434195 436196
      438196 440196 441195 441195
 0.50 381078 383074 382069 380068 378067 375065 371064 368066
      367068 367072 369074 370076 372077 375080 377081 379080
      381078
 0.50 360821 360819 359819 358821 359821 360821
 0.50 343091 344089 344087 343086 341085 339085 337086 336088
      336091 335092 335093 334095 334096 335097 336097 337097
      338097 340096 341094 342093 343091
 0.50 328103 328100 327098 325098 323099 322100 322102 323102
      325103 327103 328103
 0.50 298769 298764 294761 291761 290763 287767 282770 278774
      276780 278786 283785 290783 295779 297775 298769
 0.50 294820 294819 293818 292816 292815 290815 288814 286816
      286819 286820 287821 288822 289822 290823 292822 293822
      294820 294820
 0.50 290899 290895 290891 290887 289885 285884 282885 280887
      278889 276892 276894 275898 277900 280901 282902 285904
      288904 289902 290899
 0.50 262809 262807 261807 260805 259805 258804 256805 256807
      257809 258811 260811 261811 262810 262809
 1.00 529965 528960 524957 521955 520950 519946 514944 508942
      501938 494940 488947 482951 471961 468964 466969 466971
      469974 472983 479985 483986 487989 491995 494997 498998
      503996 511991 516986 525973 529965
 1.00 498126 497120 494117 491117 487119 484121 480123 476126
      474129 476133 481134 486134 489133 493131 496128 498126
 1.50 494975 494967 492960 491954 489952 486953 481957 477959
      472963 471966 471969 476971 475977 481979 486980 490979
      494975

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 565977 566972 564968 564957 563947 561939 556922 554916
      554905 556894 558883 558875 555864 551844 548835 545832
      544828 540807 539799 536793 533785 530780 529777 527780
      521782 516785 514788 511789 509792 507802 504811 500829
      497837 495848 493850 490850 487849 483849 480847 477852
      469864 467868 467871 466879 463897 462903 460906 455912
      444924 433934 396964 384974 381977 383982 386984 389983
      396981 403980 410978 416975 419973 420975 419977 415984
      415991 418995 426995 430995 432999 433007 435014 435021
      433030 430040 429042 430045 434049 440049 443051 444060
      440069 423103 418098 413092 409089 412087 418080 418076
      417073 410072 406072 406077 407080 405084 401088 397094
      402095 405097 404100 404104 402106 396110 390114 393118
      405119 410120 413122 420127 423129 426127 432122 435121
      437125 436130 434135 429149 423161 420166 416175 413181
      415185 413193 416199 419206 422212 430215 437211 443208
      451204 456202 462199 469192 478185 483180 490181 503181
      510178 514174 517172 519166 522157 518151 517145 519141
      526126 530115 531104 533099 537099 542099 543088 543081
      543075 543060 544047 544039 547034 560007 562001 563991
      564983 565977
 0.01 525257 521254 518249 515235 507226 499214 496210 491208
      484207 478207 474209 470213 462221 471223 478221 479223
      480228 475231 471233 467237 462243 457252 452267 456294
      457297 459298 462299 464297 473290 477287 482286 493286
      501289 511293
 0.01 441854 440846 437837 435830 431825 427821 421817 409819
      402820 399822 395823 392826 389835 389842 393849 397853
      401855 406850 409848 413848 418851 424854 429857 436857
      439856 441854
 0.01 225056 227063 230067 238074 243078 248081 256084 266087
      272088 276091 282093 285095 286098 287106 291111 301121
      303123 307123 310122 315119 320123 327126 328125 329121
      330115 333113 342113 342100 351093 353091 357090 363092
      378090 392091 396088 397080 396077 396073 394069 396064
      404060 405058 402056 400055 397055 395057 391061 385058
      375050 371041 369039 367040 356042 350043 343041 338038
      331040 326044 325048 326053 329058 331060 331064 328069
      325071 324068 322061 322052 320048 317047 314048 314054
      313070 311079 308072 296066 287065 279063 267058 257052
      247044 237035 232031 229032 227035
 0.01 275720 272729 270736 267744 266748 266754 267761 268765
      266767 268779 267787 265792 261793 255794 248800 247803
      248808 256824 259828 258831 256832 253841 253848 254853
      257857 260860 263864 266868 263874 258880 258886 256890
      256897 258901 262908 268917 273927 276935 279943 279967
      279972 283972 286970 288966 294956 297950 301949 304950
      308948 311947 314944 313934 314929 316926 318924 322924
      327927 330928 332924 326917 322907 317900 313894 316883
      317880 319876 321871 324867 331862 344860 353855 358850
      361842 363831 367830 372829 373824 372816 373810 376806
      381797 382795 379793 374794 370792 361794 358796 356797
      354794 353790 355788 354782 357770 358767 360766 365763
      370761 373759 376755 377748 377744 377737 375726 373723
      370722 360725 352730 345736 330750 319762 314767 309759
      302740 296729 292725 288724 276718
 0.25 543879 542865 540856 538851 535848 531846 528846 524848
      521851 516858 509869 507873 503877 496882 489884 485884
      480887 476894 466912 461920 454930 449937 445944 442968
      438974 437978 438982 442984 449984 455985 459988 462992
      463005 466013 466018 465023 462034 462040 462047 461052
      459057 456062 452065 449069 447075 451085 451088 450094
      446100 449109 452113 453121 453127 452133 449138 446142
      442145 440151 441156 444161 448166 452174 455178 453182
      449187 447189 444194 446195 448194 456192 459192 461190
      464184 466179 470176 475173 490168 497162 503154 508145
      510138 511131 511126 512121 516111 522092 527079 528062
      526049 523036 519027 514021 508016 501016 498010 498005
      500002 502001 505001 510003 513998 517988 516984 517976
      520969 524961 528951 532939 535928 538913 540901 542890
      543879
 0.25 497265 497264 496262 496261 494260 494261 494262 495264
      495265 497266 497265
 0.25 362749 361742 358738 355737 352738 348742 341750 335757
      329766 327770 326776 327780 332781 340775 347769 355761
      360754 362749
 0.25 355828 354827 354826 352825 351824 349826 349829 349831
      349833 350835 351836 353835 354835 354833 354830 355829
      355828
 0.25 311850 311841 311837 310833 305829 302827 301823 282806
      278807 276809 277812 278816 275815 272808 262803 258802
      254804 254810 259815 263819 268822 276823 281820 286823
      292825 298828 300830 301834 298835 295835 289831 282830
      277830 275831 273832 275834 284844 292852 295858 297866
      302879 306873 309867 311858 311850
 0.25 247064 246062 244060 242058 240056 237054 236052 234051
      231051 232054 233057 234059 235061 237063 240065 242066
      245066 247064
 0.50 537899 538886 538879 537872 533863 530861 525862 517874
      511882 505888 497901 489896 482898 474910 468919 463925
      459930 454937 450945 450950 452957 453966 455969 459970
      468971 476974 480981 483989 489995 493996 497994 501988
      502982 500977 496969 494963 495954 500950 501939 505931
      509931 512936 515943 520938 523935 525932 530923 535912
      537899
 0.50 522070 522061 520051 518042 512035 508031 502028 494026
      486023 476019 473022 471026 468036 467046 467058 466064
      464068 459074 456074 454077 455081 455091 455101 458117
      460123 459126 457137 454143 450151 451156 453159 458160
      461160 467159 474159 481158 487151 491147 493145 495141
      498131 501121 508109 510105 513100 515090 519081 522070
 0.50 357750 355744 350746 347749 345752 342756 340760 337763
      335767 335770 338770 342768 345765 348762 352759 354755
      356751 357750
 1.00 529907 530902 530896 530891 527889 526889 524890 523892
      521894 520900 519902 520905 521908 523910 526911 528910
      529907
 1.00 511071 512064 511057 510052 506049 490042 487040 483039
      480042 478047 476059 474065 474070 479077 483080 484085
      478091 472096 466102 465110 466115 470116 473114 479107
      481104 486103 489103 492099 496088 498084 501081 507077
      511071
 1.00 478932 477929 474927 471929 469931 467933 466936 464940
      466943 467942 471940 472939 475937 477934 478932

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 030637
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 12Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND TRAINING IN THE MIDST OF THE MODESTLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE REGIME SUPPORT LOW PROBABILISTIC CHANCES OF
GENERATING RAINFALL THAT MAY EXCEED FFG VALUES...WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITIES A RESULT OF HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD AND
GENERALLY HIGH FFG VALUES.  RAINFALL MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW CROSSING MICHIGAN AS WELL ALONG THE TRAILING
AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ALBEIT OVER
VERY SMALL AREAS.

JAMES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 030637
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

...VALID 12Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND TRAINING IN THE MIDST OF THE MODESTLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE REGIME SUPPORT LOW PROBABILISTIC CHANCES OF
GENERATING RAINFALL THAT MAY EXCEED FFG VALUES...WITH THE LOW
PROBABILITIES A RESULT OF HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD AND
GENERALLY HIGH FFG VALUES.  RAINFALL MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW CROSSING MICHIGAN AS WELL ALONG THE TRAILING
AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ALBEIT OVER
VERY SMALL AREAS.

JAMES
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 030049
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 01Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



01Z UPDATE...

...SOUTHWEST U.S...

ACTIVITY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITHIN DECENT MONSOONAL PLUME HAS
STRUGGLED TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO ANY LARGE EXTENT OWING PARTLY TO
RATHER LOW SBCAPES..ONLY MODEST SFC DPS...AND LOWERING PWS BEHIND
MID LEVEL CIRC LIFTING NEWD ACRS NE AZ.  LATEST EXPERMENTAL HRRR
RUNS SHOW POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD HEAVIER STORMS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORT DURING THE EVENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS
REGION..BUT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   THERE IS ALSO POTNL FOR SOME STORMS DVLPG
NEWD FROM NRN MEX INTO SE SECTIONS OF AZ AND SW NM DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH HI LEVEL MSTR FROM TD 14-E
PSBLY COMING INTO PLAY. OTHERWISE...BELIEVE OVERALL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST..THOUGH SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES STILL CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.




BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030049
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 01Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



01Z UPDATE...

...SOUTHWEST U.S...

ACTIVITY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITHIN DECENT MONSOONAL PLUME HAS
STRUGGLED TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO ANY LARGE EXTENT OWING PARTLY TO
RATHER LOW SBCAPES..ONLY MODEST SFC DPS...AND LOWERING PWS BEHIND
MID LEVEL CIRC LIFTING NEWD ACRS NE AZ.  LATEST EXPERMENTAL HRRR
RUNS SHOW POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD HEAVIER STORMS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORT DURING THE EVENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS
REGION..BUT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   THERE IS ALSO POTNL FOR SOME STORMS DVLPG
NEWD FROM NRN MEX INTO SE SECTIONS OF AZ AND SW NM DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH HI LEVEL MSTR FROM TD 14-E
PSBLY COMING INTO PLAY. OTHERWISE...BELIEVE OVERALL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST..THOUGH SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES STILL CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.




BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 030049
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 01Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



01Z UPDATE...

...SOUTHWEST U.S...

ACTIVITY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITHIN DECENT MONSOONAL PLUME HAS
STRUGGLED TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO ANY LARGE EXTENT OWING PARTLY TO
RATHER LOW SBCAPES..ONLY MODEST SFC DPS...AND LOWERING PWS BEHIND
MID LEVEL CIRC LIFTING NEWD ACRS NE AZ.  LATEST EXPERMENTAL HRRR
RUNS SHOW POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD HEAVIER STORMS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORT DURING THE EVENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS
REGION..BUT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   THERE IS ALSO POTNL FOR SOME STORMS DVLPG
NEWD FROM NRN MEX INTO SE SECTIONS OF AZ AND SW NM DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH HI LEVEL MSTR FROM TD 14-E
PSBLY COMING INTO PLAY. OTHERWISE...BELIEVE OVERALL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST..THOUGH SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES STILL CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.




BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030049
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 01Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



01Z UPDATE...

...SOUTHWEST U.S...

ACTIVITY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITHIN DECENT MONSOONAL PLUME HAS
STRUGGLED TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO ANY LARGE EXTENT OWING PARTLY TO
RATHER LOW SBCAPES..ONLY MODEST SFC DPS...AND LOWERING PWS BEHIND
MID LEVEL CIRC LIFTING NEWD ACRS NE AZ.  LATEST EXPERMENTAL HRRR
RUNS SHOW POTNL FOR SOME ISOLD HEAVIER STORMS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORT DURING THE EVENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS
REGION..BUT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   THERE IS ALSO POTNL FOR SOME STORMS DVLPG
NEWD FROM NRN MEX INTO SE SECTIONS OF AZ AND SW NM DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH HI LEVEL MSTR FROM TD 14-E
PSBLY COMING INTO PLAY. OTHERWISE...BELIEVE OVERALL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST..THOUGH SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES STILL CAN`T BE RULED
OUT.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.




BURKE/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 022143
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ON MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM QPF BASED ON LATEST SATL/RADR
TRENDS.



...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 526243 521242 518243 516240 517235 518231 523228
      527227 532225 536219 539210 541197 541189 541181 540173
      538169 530143 527137 524133 520129 512128 505130 502132
      497132 494131 494127 497123 502116 506114 511113 516109
      520104 522098 524089 526082 526075 524068 520066 517069
      514073 512078 508081 505077 502080 484084 478084 473085
      466084 463084 461086 429099 431102 432109 433114 435114
      440115 444113 447115 449121 450124 448127 445131 441135
      440139 441141 442149 443153 443158 442162 441163 433166
      425170 421174 417180 413193 412203 411207 414209 417210
      419210 419214 418222 420222 428218 432211 436209 438204
      440199 442197 445193 451190 455187 463179 464172 467167
      474163 477159 480161 483165 483171 484177 486183 488190
      489193 488198 470208 462213 458215 452215 437218 435223
      441225 442227 444227 449227 453226 453231 448233 439238
      439248 439253 443257 446258 452258 457258 461260 464264
      466266 469266 475270 478275 484287 490297 494302 499303
      503302 507299 513280 515277 515273 520271
 0.01 476694 475679 472661 469655 467651 465650 462651 460654
      458660 458665 460680 461685 460690 459696 456698 453702
      452704 450703 448698 444695 439694 434695 423700 420704
      418708 415717 412727 413737 415751 415756 414760 413765
      410787 407791 407795 406798 404797 402795 392779 388778
      384780 375786 369794 363804 360810 359814 355817 347822
      341827 339837 339843 342848 347850 353849 361843 365840
      370838 374835 378837 382844 383850 385853 393857 395871
      399875 401880 399887 398892 395902 394908 394914 391933
      393938 393942 391945 391950 393958 394960 396956 398942
      402932 407925 412920 417913 420910 425912 431914 435914
      445909 451909 455906 460899 462893 462887 463877 463864
      462848 460842 456838 449832 443823 438817 435813 437808
      436794 436788 440791 442793 447793 455786 461778 464771
      464765 466752 467740 470731 474725 476717 476708 476699
      476694
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421204 422207 423205
 0.01 421209 422207 421205 419206 419209 420211 421209
 0.01 430025 430020 429017 425011 417010 411014 404021 398025
      395030 391035 386040 380043 373041 369043 366048 362049
      358047 353045 351043 347043 337042 322045 315045 312048
      311051 310056 310060 312062 315068 314073 310074 293071
      281071 275073 267070 261068 252068 250071 250075 254081
      262089 270096 275101 277103 280102 284096 285094 288094
      292095 300096 304097 303099 300103 298105 298109 300116
      304121 307124 310126 314127 318128 326129 332128 337132
      342133 352127 357127 359125 365121 369117 372113 373102
      374100 377099 381099 383097 388092 399083 404080 408079
      415076 418071 421066 422060 421056 414053 406050 404048
      404045 407041 419037 427032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 375770 371768 366764 363760 356753 349747 344746
      338746 327752 319758 314758 308760 297779 290785 280789
      266791 256786 245785 241787 238791 236796 239799 244803
      250803 259799 260801 256804 250806 251810 249815 253818
      257822 261823 270825 288838 291841 296841 300844 301848
      302853 306856 309862 313865 319860 322850 320843 322837
      324829 324823 327814 330810 333811 338807 341802 346790
      348787 354784 359784 364786 369787 373783 377778 377776
 0.01 316939 316918 316910 314903 313898 312895 307890 302888
      299882 294878 292876 287876 281877 278883 275889 273896
      273903 275910 278916 280924 282927 282931 280937 276943
      270947 263954 256957 251962 248966 248972 250974 255975
      258976 262977 274976 278982 284985 294981 303971 309960
      311954 314947 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534181 533176 530170 526162 524155 521148 516144
      513144 510146 508154 498161 494166 493176 494180 496182
      502184 509188 513193 520207 522209 525209 528204 529199
      528194 527190 528188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503222 500216 498212 495210 493211 489210 482211
      477214 475217 475221 477224 477226 467237 465240 464244
      467250 469253 472254 476253 477250 485249 487248 488244
      483232 488229 493233 496236 500238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 481122 477124 472127 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 458169 461165
      466161 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 439762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 458879 455866 453855 443836 431821 426820 421823 416830
      423839 424843 424850 414865 409891 410894 417896 421898
      425897 434890 437888 442888 449896 453897 455893 458879
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 406061 406057 402057 397056 391057 388060 384064 381065
      375063 370063 367068 367074 370084 371086 375089 379087
      386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062 406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351767 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 333086 330090 326094 322093 320090
      316089 313092 309097 306104 308112 311117 316118 321117
      323110 330110 334111 337112 340111 341109 339107 336102
      341103 343098
 0.25 322788 321783 320777 315770 312771 308774 305780 298788
      291793 285798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259814 262817
      267818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292823 294826 298826
      301823 305823 308825 312824 317816 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300904 298897 294889 289885 284892 282899 283907
      285914 290931 290940 288945 284953 281960 281964 282967
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299944 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242002 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507170 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 497223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 453879 453873 451868 448863 445852 441846 440842 438838
      434833 428827 427830 427836 429846 432854 431860 427862
      422865 417872 415879 416885 419886 423891 427890 430887
      432881 435877 439876 445880 449887 451886 452882 453879
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318785 316782 311784 309786 303788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302809 299812 299816 302817
      305814 310814 314810 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 318103 318101 318099 316100 314100 314101 313103 312104
      312105 314105 315104 317103 318103
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 555957 556952 555947 552936 551931 552925 548918
      544909 539904 534899 528904 502932 499935 494936 486939
      478945 474947 469951 462957 455963 449968 444974 440981
      436988 427992 424994 421997 418003 415007 409014 401020
      398023 396028 394032 393034 389034 380031 377030 371032
      366032 362033 353035 345039 332048 327052 326058 324063
      317067 314069 310068 306065 299064 287063 276064 266060
      250052 242047 237046 232047 228050 227056 226069 230075
      236080 242084 248086 251089 262100 269106 277111 286116
      294122 298124 304125 310126 314125 322122 326121 332122
      334126 336132 340133 344133 347130 348127 350124 353124
      356124 359121 362116 365115 368112 370108 374105 377105
      381103 384100 388098 393098 395100 406081 411070 417065
      425058 428055 430050 433045 439045 443045 448044 457045
      462046 464051 459059 457062 457067 456074 458079 461088
      462092 461096 455097 447091 441090 438093 437100 441102
      441106 437107 435112 436117 440123 439131 436135 430144
      428148 424150 414161 413167 414171 419170 432161 440163
      442162 443164 447163 448166 448169 446174 442176 440177
      437175 432168 429168 425171 415189 410199 404207 402209
      401215 404223 414237 421241 426242 430241 434233 443231
      452230 461228 469224 477222 479222 480225 477229 473230
      470233 466236 467238 474245 477246 479247 480250 482260
      486267 490276 495283 500286 503285 506282 507277 505265
      496248 491238 488234 484232 482228 485225 490225 496236
      505253 509262 511266 514269 516270 519267 522264 523258
      525253 526245 528230 529223 530219 532216 533210 536205
      537199 538190 537176 538156 535144 532132 531127 529125
      528121 525113 523107 523099
 0.01 523099 526086 529074 530069 532064 535053 536037 535032
      535024 535016 537008 542001 546993 549982 550975 552971
      555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494158
      487154 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 457246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 418256 414257 401268 399272 397279
      398284 401289 405296 412299 416298 424296 431292 438287
      446283 461274 467272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 427810 417806 412805
      406806 400816 397829 395837 395846 395853 396859 400874
      402881 405886 408892 411897 419905 428912 432914 439915
      444916 450915 450906 448901 446895 444887 441871 440861
      440851 445841 450833
 0.01 432703 430698 425695 422694 422690 418688 413689 409693
      405698 404703 401711 399713 397710 395703 392701 389701
      387700 385703 383708 384717 386719 387724 382751 380757
      378759 374760 368759 366755 356752 347745 337736 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 306715 302719 299724 298726
      295728 289732 285736 278745 268768 265780 260789 255792
      250795 247798 245804 245810 246815 249821 251827 260837
      262844 265851 263867 261872 254872 248873 244875 243881
      243888 245896 245904 246923 246932 243936 239941 235945
      233951 232957 231971 231978 233983 232991 233997 235004
      238009 241014 248018 252020 257019 265019 270018 277017
      282014 284010 281006 277005 270004 265002 264994 259990
      256988 257986 263982 271982 277981 283979 286975 289970
      295966 300964 303962 304954 305942 307935 307927 306918
      307913 310912 313913 317914 319915 321913 324907 324901
      324883 327869 330864 334862 344858 349858 354860 360852
      363846 366840 369834 373828 381817 390809 397802 402791
      402777 407765 409759 409749 411742 414739 415736 421725
      432703
 0.25 547949 547938 546933 544931 538930 533934 527938 522941
      507943 501946 497950 486959 477967 468979 464984 461991
      459000 458005 459008 470014 473023 476029 481044 483048
      486050 490047 498036 506024 514013 524002 531992 536985
      540979 542973 545966 547957 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529143 528138 524134 517132
      511128 506126 502126 500121 500113 502100 503090 503083
      502078 500074 495072 492074 490075 490073 491063 488062
      485065 484070 482077 483084 481090 477095 464104 459111
      455117 445133 441140 439149 439152 442152 446153 450153
      453151 465143 473139 479136 485133 492131 497131 499136
      501146 520173 523178 527180 531177 533173
 0.25 435840 436834 435829 433825 430823 424822 417824 410827
      406834 404842 404852 405861 407871 411878 416884 425893
      432897 434893 434890 429871 428860 429854 430850 434845
      435840
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 378799 372799 367804 362811 355816
      353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806 378805
      381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387079 388071 387067 378064 372063 368065 364066 361062
      356062 353066 347070 342072 338074 330079 321082 315087
      311088 309084 308078 303075 299073 294072 285073 275071
      265066 248058 242057 236057 234060 234067 237070 242072
      246073 249075 255083 257086 262088 266088 271089 280092
      290094 295092 300092 305098 307109 329115 338119 343118
      346116 348111 349104 347092 360082 365079 369079 377084
      381084 384083 387079
 0.25 317759 316750 315741 312734 310732 306733 298740 294747
      291753 282760 277774 275779 274786 275793 272798 269800
      266801 258801 254803 252806 257813 276827 282838 288842
      291847 295851 300849 302842 300834 304822 304816 302811
      304808 308803 311798 312790 314782 316770 317759
 0.25 294945 293935 290922 289912 289905 291899 294876 292870
      288869 284868 280871 269886 265894 264899 263905 263917
      261929 255947 252956 251960 252963 257962 274954 283952
      292948 294945
 0.50 543955 543947 541941 537941 534944 527949 517951 499957
      493962 486969 480975 478981 477987 477994 478999 481012
      483015 488016 498015 506011 513006 520000 526991 536975
      540965 543955
 0.50 529172 530168 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 527175 529172
 0.50 488114 489107 485104 478108 471112 468115 466119 459126
      455132 454136 454139 457140 461139 465137 471132 478127
      484121 488114
 0.50 429840 428835 426832 419831 415832 412835 409843 411854
      413863 416872 420877 423878 424872 422862 421857 422853
      426846 429840
 0.50 343111 343105 341100 340097 336094 333096 329098 326100
      324104 326107 330109 333112 338114 342113 343111
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300749 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288799 293801 296800 301798
      304795 308784 311773 309758 309756
 0.50 291820 291818 290817 288816 287818 288820 290820 291820
 0.50 269937 269935 268935 266937 266939 268939 269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 259811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 530967 528965 523965 514966 510965 505966 497965
      491973 487977 486980 487985 489989 494991 499991 505992
      508996 513997 520990 525981 530971
 1.50 500977 500975 499974 497974 497975 495976 495977 494980
      495981 497980 498980 499979 500977

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 022143
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ON MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM QPF BASED ON LATEST SATL/RADR
TRENDS.



...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 526243 521242 518243 516240 517235 518231 523228
      527227 532225 536219 539210 541197 541189 541181 540173
      538169 530143 527137 524133 520129 512128 505130 502132
      497132 494131 494127 497123 502116 506114 511113 516109
      520104 522098 524089 526082 526075 524068 520066 517069
      514073 512078 508081 505077 502080 484084 478084 473085
      466084 463084 461086 429099 431102 432109 433114 435114
      440115 444113 447115 449121 450124 448127 445131 441135
      440139 441141 442149 443153 443158 442162 441163 433166
      425170 421174 417180 413193 412203 411207 414209 417210
      419210 419214 418222 420222 428218 432211 436209 438204
      440199 442197 445193 451190 455187 463179 464172 467167
      474163 477159 480161 483165 483171 484177 486183 488190
      489193 488198 470208 462213 458215 452215 437218 435223
      441225 442227 444227 449227 453226 453231 448233 439238
      439248 439253 443257 446258 452258 457258 461260 464264
      466266 469266 475270 478275 484287 490297 494302 499303
      503302 507299 513280 515277 515273 520271
 0.01 476694 475679 472661 469655 467651 465650 462651 460654
      458660 458665 460680 461685 460690 459696 456698 453702
      452704 450703 448698 444695 439694 434695 423700 420704
      418708 415717 412727 413737 415751 415756 414760 413765
      410787 407791 407795 406798 404797 402795 392779 388778
      384780 375786 369794 363804 360810 359814 355817 347822
      341827 339837 339843 342848 347850 353849 361843 365840
      370838 374835 378837 382844 383850 385853 393857 395871
      399875 401880 399887 398892 395902 394908 394914 391933
      393938 393942 391945 391950 393958 394960 396956 398942
      402932 407925 412920 417913 420910 425912 431914 435914
      445909 451909 455906 460899 462893 462887 463877 463864
      462848 460842 456838 449832 443823 438817 435813 437808
      436794 436788 440791 442793 447793 455786 461778 464771
      464765 466752 467740 470731 474725 476717 476708 476699
      476694
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421204 422207 423205
 0.01 421209 422207 421205 419206 419209 420211 421209
 0.01 430025 430020 429017 425011 417010 411014 404021 398025
      395030 391035 386040 380043 373041 369043 366048 362049
      358047 353045 351043 347043 337042 322045 315045 312048
      311051 310056 310060 312062 315068 314073 310074 293071
      281071 275073 267070 261068 252068 250071 250075 254081
      262089 270096 275101 277103 280102 284096 285094 288094
      292095 300096 304097 303099 300103 298105 298109 300116
      304121 307124 310126 314127 318128 326129 332128 337132
      342133 352127 357127 359125 365121 369117 372113 373102
      374100 377099 381099 383097 388092 399083 404080 408079
      415076 418071 421066 422060 421056 414053 406050 404048
      404045 407041 419037 427032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 375770 371768 366764 363760 356753 349747 344746
      338746 327752 319758 314758 308760 297779 290785 280789
      266791 256786 245785 241787 238791 236796 239799 244803
      250803 259799 260801 256804 250806 251810 249815 253818
      257822 261823 270825 288838 291841 296841 300844 301848
      302853 306856 309862 313865 319860 322850 320843 322837
      324829 324823 327814 330810 333811 338807 341802 346790
      348787 354784 359784 364786 369787 373783 377778 377776
 0.01 316939 316918 316910 314903 313898 312895 307890 302888
      299882 294878 292876 287876 281877 278883 275889 273896
      273903 275910 278916 280924 282927 282931 280937 276943
      270947 263954 256957 251962 248966 248972 250974 255975
      258976 262977 274976 278982 284985 294981 303971 309960
      311954 314947 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534181 533176 530170 526162 524155 521148 516144
      513144 510146 508154 498161 494166 493176 494180 496182
      502184 509188 513193 520207 522209 525209 528204 529199
      528194 527190 528188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503222 500216 498212 495210 493211 489210 482211
      477214 475217 475221 477224 477226 467237 465240 464244
      467250 469253 472254 476253 477250 485249 487248 488244
      483232 488229 493233 496236 500238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 481122 477124 472127 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 458169 461165
      466161 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 439762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 458879 455866 453855 443836 431821 426820 421823 416830
      423839 424843 424850 414865 409891 410894 417896 421898
      425897 434890 437888 442888 449896 453897 455893 458879
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 406061 406057 402057 397056 391057 388060 384064 381065
      375063 370063 367068 367074 370084 371086 375089 379087
      386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062 406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351767 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 333086 330090 326094 322093 320090
      316089 313092 309097 306104 308112 311117 316118 321117
      323110 330110 334111 337112 340111 341109 339107 336102
      341103 343098
 0.25 322788 321783 320777 315770 312771 308774 305780 298788
      291793 285798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259814 262817
      267818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292823 294826 298826
      301823 305823 308825 312824 317816 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300904 298897 294889 289885 284892 282899 283907
      285914 290931 290940 288945 284953 281960 281964 282967
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299944 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242002 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507170 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 497223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 453879 453873 451868 448863 445852 441846 440842 438838
      434833 428827 427830 427836 429846 432854 431860 427862
      422865 417872 415879 416885 419886 423891 427890 430887
      432881 435877 439876 445880 449887 451886 452882 453879
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318785 316782 311784 309786 303788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302809 299812 299816 302817
      305814 310814 314810 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 318103 318101 318099 316100 314100 314101 313103 312104
      312105 314105 315104 317103 318103
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 555957 556952 555947 552936 551931 552925 548918
      544909 539904 534899 528904 502932 499935 494936 486939
      478945 474947 469951 462957 455963 449968 444974 440981
      436988 427992 424994 421997 418003 415007 409014 401020
      398023 396028 394032 393034 389034 380031 377030 371032
      366032 362033 353035 345039 332048 327052 326058 324063
      317067 314069 310068 306065 299064 287063 276064 266060
      250052 242047 237046 232047 228050 227056 226069 230075
      236080 242084 248086 251089 262100 269106 277111 286116
      294122 298124 304125 310126 314125 322122 326121 332122
      334126 336132 340133 344133 347130 348127 350124 353124
      356124 359121 362116 365115 368112 370108 374105 377105
      381103 384100 388098 393098 395100 406081 411070 417065
      425058 428055 430050 433045 439045 443045 448044 457045
      462046 464051 459059 457062 457067 456074 458079 461088
      462092 461096 455097 447091 441090 438093 437100 441102
      441106 437107 435112 436117 440123 439131 436135 430144
      428148 424150 414161 413167 414171 419170 432161 440163
      442162 443164 447163 448166 448169 446174 442176 440177
      437175 432168 429168 425171 415189 410199 404207 402209
      401215 404223 414237 421241 426242 430241 434233 443231
      452230 461228 469224 477222 479222 480225 477229 473230
      470233 466236 467238 474245 477246 479247 480250 482260
      486267 490276 495283 500286 503285 506282 507277 505265
      496248 491238 488234 484232 482228 485225 490225 496236
      505253 509262 511266 514269 516270 519267 522264 523258
      525253 526245 528230 529223 530219 532216 533210 536205
      537199 538190 537176 538156 535144 532132 531127 529125
      528121 525113 523107 523099
 0.01 523099 526086 529074 530069 532064 535053 536037 535032
      535024 535016 537008 542001 546993 549982 550975 552971
      555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494158
      487154 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 457246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 418256 414257 401268 399272 397279
      398284 401289 405296 412299 416298 424296 431292 438287
      446283 461274 467272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 427810 417806 412805
      406806 400816 397829 395837 395846 395853 396859 400874
      402881 405886 408892 411897 419905 428912 432914 439915
      444916 450915 450906 448901 446895 444887 441871 440861
      440851 445841 450833
 0.01 432703 430698 425695 422694 422690 418688 413689 409693
      405698 404703 401711 399713 397710 395703 392701 389701
      387700 385703 383708 384717 386719 387724 382751 380757
      378759 374760 368759 366755 356752 347745 337736 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 306715 302719 299724 298726
      295728 289732 285736 278745 268768 265780 260789 255792
      250795 247798 245804 245810 246815 249821 251827 260837
      262844 265851 263867 261872 254872 248873 244875 243881
      243888 245896 245904 246923 246932 243936 239941 235945
      233951 232957 231971 231978 233983 232991 233997 235004
      238009 241014 248018 252020 257019 265019 270018 277017
      282014 284010 281006 277005 270004 265002 264994 259990
      256988 257986 263982 271982 277981 283979 286975 289970
      295966 300964 303962 304954 305942 307935 307927 306918
      307913 310912 313913 317914 319915 321913 324907 324901
      324883 327869 330864 334862 344858 349858 354860 360852
      363846 366840 369834 373828 381817 390809 397802 402791
      402777 407765 409759 409749 411742 414739 415736 421725
      432703
 0.25 547949 547938 546933 544931 538930 533934 527938 522941
      507943 501946 497950 486959 477967 468979 464984 461991
      459000 458005 459008 470014 473023 476029 481044 483048
      486050 490047 498036 506024 514013 524002 531992 536985
      540979 542973 545966 547957 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529143 528138 524134 517132
      511128 506126 502126 500121 500113 502100 503090 503083
      502078 500074 495072 492074 490075 490073 491063 488062
      485065 484070 482077 483084 481090 477095 464104 459111
      455117 445133 441140 439149 439152 442152 446153 450153
      453151 465143 473139 479136 485133 492131 497131 499136
      501146 520173 523178 527180 531177 533173
 0.25 435840 436834 435829 433825 430823 424822 417824 410827
      406834 404842 404852 405861 407871 411878 416884 425893
      432897 434893 434890 429871 428860 429854 430850 434845
      435840
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 378799 372799 367804 362811 355816
      353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806 378805
      381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387079 388071 387067 378064 372063 368065 364066 361062
      356062 353066 347070 342072 338074 330079 321082 315087
      311088 309084 308078 303075 299073 294072 285073 275071
      265066 248058 242057 236057 234060 234067 237070 242072
      246073 249075 255083 257086 262088 266088 271089 280092
      290094 295092 300092 305098 307109 329115 338119 343118
      346116 348111 349104 347092 360082 365079 369079 377084
      381084 384083 387079
 0.25 317759 316750 315741 312734 310732 306733 298740 294747
      291753 282760 277774 275779 274786 275793 272798 269800
      266801 258801 254803 252806 257813 276827 282838 288842
      291847 295851 300849 302842 300834 304822 304816 302811
      304808 308803 311798 312790 314782 316770 317759
 0.25 294945 293935 290922 289912 289905 291899 294876 292870
      288869 284868 280871 269886 265894 264899 263905 263917
      261929 255947 252956 251960 252963 257962 274954 283952
      292948 294945
 0.50 543955 543947 541941 537941 534944 527949 517951 499957
      493962 486969 480975 478981 477987 477994 478999 481012
      483015 488016 498015 506011 513006 520000 526991 536975
      540965 543955
 0.50 529172 530168 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 527175 529172
 0.50 488114 489107 485104 478108 471112 468115 466119 459126
      455132 454136 454139 457140 461139 465137 471132 478127
      484121 488114
 0.50 429840 428835 426832 419831 415832 412835 409843 411854
      413863 416872 420877 423878 424872 422862 421857 422853
      426846 429840
 0.50 343111 343105 341100 340097 336094 333096 329098 326100
      324104 326107 330109 333112 338114 342113 343111
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300749 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288799 293801 296800 301798
      304795 308784 311773 309758 309756
 0.50 291820 291818 290817 288816 287818 288820 290820 291820
 0.50 269937 269935 268935 266937 266939 268939 269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 259811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 530967 528965 523965 514966 510965 505966 497965
      491973 487977 486980 487985 489989 494991 499991 505992
      508996 513997 520990 525981 530971
 1.50 500977 500975 499974 497974 497975 495976 495977 494980
      495981 497980 498980 499979 500977

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 022143
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ON MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM QPF BASED ON LATEST SATL/RADR
TRENDS.



...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 526243 521242 518243 516240 517235 518231 523228
      527227 532225 536219 539210 541197 541189 541181 540173
      538169 530143 527137 524133 520129 512128 505130 502132
      497132 494131 494127 497123 502116 506114 511113 516109
      520104 522098 524089 526082 526075 524068 520066 517069
      514073 512078 508081 505077 502080 484084 478084 473085
      466084 463084 461086 429099 431102 432109 433114 435114
      440115 444113 447115 449121 450124 448127 445131 441135
      440139 441141 442149 443153 443158 442162 441163 433166
      425170 421174 417180 413193 412203 411207 414209 417210
      419210 419214 418222 420222 428218 432211 436209 438204
      440199 442197 445193 451190 455187 463179 464172 467167
      474163 477159 480161 483165 483171 484177 486183 488190
      489193 488198 470208 462213 458215 452215 437218 435223
      441225 442227 444227 449227 453226 453231 448233 439238
      439248 439253 443257 446258 452258 457258 461260 464264
      466266 469266 475270 478275 484287 490297 494302 499303
      503302 507299 513280 515277 515273 520271
 0.01 476694 475679 472661 469655 467651 465650 462651 460654
      458660 458665 460680 461685 460690 459696 456698 453702
      452704 450703 448698 444695 439694 434695 423700 420704
      418708 415717 412727 413737 415751 415756 414760 413765
      410787 407791 407795 406798 404797 402795 392779 388778
      384780 375786 369794 363804 360810 359814 355817 347822
      341827 339837 339843 342848 347850 353849 361843 365840
      370838 374835 378837 382844 383850 385853 393857 395871
      399875 401880 399887 398892 395902 394908 394914 391933
      393938 393942 391945 391950 393958 394960 396956 398942
      402932 407925 412920 417913 420910 425912 431914 435914
      445909 451909 455906 460899 462893 462887 463877 463864
      462848 460842 456838 449832 443823 438817 435813 437808
      436794 436788 440791 442793 447793 455786 461778 464771
      464765 466752 467740 470731 474725 476717 476708 476699
      476694
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421204 422207 423205
 0.01 421209 422207 421205 419206 419209 420211 421209
 0.01 430025 430020 429017 425011 417010 411014 404021 398025
      395030 391035 386040 380043 373041 369043 366048 362049
      358047 353045 351043 347043 337042 322045 315045 312048
      311051 310056 310060 312062 315068 314073 310074 293071
      281071 275073 267070 261068 252068 250071 250075 254081
      262089 270096 275101 277103 280102 284096 285094 288094
      292095 300096 304097 303099 300103 298105 298109 300116
      304121 307124 310126 314127 318128 326129 332128 337132
      342133 352127 357127 359125 365121 369117 372113 373102
      374100 377099 381099 383097 388092 399083 404080 408079
      415076 418071 421066 422060 421056 414053 406050 404048
      404045 407041 419037 427032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 375770 371768 366764 363760 356753 349747 344746
      338746 327752 319758 314758 308760 297779 290785 280789
      266791 256786 245785 241787 238791 236796 239799 244803
      250803 259799 260801 256804 250806 251810 249815 253818
      257822 261823 270825 288838 291841 296841 300844 301848
      302853 306856 309862 313865 319860 322850 320843 322837
      324829 324823 327814 330810 333811 338807 341802 346790
      348787 354784 359784 364786 369787 373783 377778 377776
 0.01 316939 316918 316910 314903 313898 312895 307890 302888
      299882 294878 292876 287876 281877 278883 275889 273896
      273903 275910 278916 280924 282927 282931 280937 276943
      270947 263954 256957 251962 248966 248972 250974 255975
      258976 262977 274976 278982 284985 294981 303971 309960
      311954 314947 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534181 533176 530170 526162 524155 521148 516144
      513144 510146 508154 498161 494166 493176 494180 496182
      502184 509188 513193 520207 522209 525209 528204 529199
      528194 527190 528188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503222 500216 498212 495210 493211 489210 482211
      477214 475217 475221 477224 477226 467237 465240 464244
      467250 469253 472254 476253 477250 485249 487248 488244
      483232 488229 493233 496236 500238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 481122 477124 472127 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 458169 461165
      466161 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 439762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 458879 455866 453855 443836 431821 426820 421823 416830
      423839 424843 424850 414865 409891 410894 417896 421898
      425897 434890 437888 442888 449896 453897 455893 458879
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 406061 406057 402057 397056 391057 388060 384064 381065
      375063 370063 367068 367074 370084 371086 375089 379087
      386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062 406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351767 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 333086 330090 326094 322093 320090
      316089 313092 309097 306104 308112 311117 316118 321117
      323110 330110 334111 337112 340111 341109 339107 336102
      341103 343098
 0.25 322788 321783 320777 315770 312771 308774 305780 298788
      291793 285798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259814 262817
      267818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292823 294826 298826
      301823 305823 308825 312824 317816 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300904 298897 294889 289885 284892 282899 283907
      285914 290931 290940 288945 284953 281960 281964 282967
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299944 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242002 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507170 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 497223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 453879 453873 451868 448863 445852 441846 440842 438838
      434833 428827 427830 427836 429846 432854 431860 427862
      422865 417872 415879 416885 419886 423891 427890 430887
      432881 435877 439876 445880 449887 451886 452882 453879
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318785 316782 311784 309786 303788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302809 299812 299816 302817
      305814 310814 314810 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 318103 318101 318099 316100 314100 314101 313103 312104
      312105 314105 315104 317103 318103
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 555957 556952 555947 552936 551931 552925 548918
      544909 539904 534899 528904 502932 499935 494936 486939
      478945 474947 469951 462957 455963 449968 444974 440981
      436988 427992 424994 421997 418003 415007 409014 401020
      398023 396028 394032 393034 389034 380031 377030 371032
      366032 362033 353035 345039 332048 327052 326058 324063
      317067 314069 310068 306065 299064 287063 276064 266060
      250052 242047 237046 232047 228050 227056 226069 230075
      236080 242084 248086 251089 262100 269106 277111 286116
      294122 298124 304125 310126 314125 322122 326121 332122
      334126 336132 340133 344133 347130 348127 350124 353124
      356124 359121 362116 365115 368112 370108 374105 377105
      381103 384100 388098 393098 395100 406081 411070 417065
      425058 428055 430050 433045 439045 443045 448044 457045
      462046 464051 459059 457062 457067 456074 458079 461088
      462092 461096 455097 447091 441090 438093 437100 441102
      441106 437107 435112 436117 440123 439131 436135 430144
      428148 424150 414161 413167 414171 419170 432161 440163
      442162 443164 447163 448166 448169 446174 442176 440177
      437175 432168 429168 425171 415189 410199 404207 402209
      401215 404223 414237 421241 426242 430241 434233 443231
      452230 461228 469224 477222 479222 480225 477229 473230
      470233 466236 467238 474245 477246 479247 480250 482260
      486267 490276 495283 500286 503285 506282 507277 505265
      496248 491238 488234 484232 482228 485225 490225 496236
      505253 509262 511266 514269 516270 519267 522264 523258
      525253 526245 528230 529223 530219 532216 533210 536205
      537199 538190 537176 538156 535144 532132 531127 529125
      528121 525113 523107 523099
 0.01 523099 526086 529074 530069 532064 535053 536037 535032
      535024 535016 537008 542001 546993 549982 550975 552971
      555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494158
      487154 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 457246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 418256 414257 401268 399272 397279
      398284 401289 405296 412299 416298 424296 431292 438287
      446283 461274 467272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 427810 417806 412805
      406806 400816 397829 395837 395846 395853 396859 400874
      402881 405886 408892 411897 419905 428912 432914 439915
      444916 450915 450906 448901 446895 444887 441871 440861
      440851 445841 450833
 0.01 432703 430698 425695 422694 422690 418688 413689 409693
      405698 404703 401711 399713 397710 395703 392701 389701
      387700 385703 383708 384717 386719 387724 382751 380757
      378759 374760 368759 366755 356752 347745 337736 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 306715 302719 299724 298726
      295728 289732 285736 278745 268768 265780 260789 255792
      250795 247798 245804 245810 246815 249821 251827 260837
      262844 265851 263867 261872 254872 248873 244875 243881
      243888 245896 245904 246923 246932 243936 239941 235945
      233951 232957 231971 231978 233983 232991 233997 235004
      238009 241014 248018 252020 257019 265019 270018 277017
      282014 284010 281006 277005 270004 265002 264994 259990
      256988 257986 263982 271982 277981 283979 286975 289970
      295966 300964 303962 304954 305942 307935 307927 306918
      307913 310912 313913 317914 319915 321913 324907 324901
      324883 327869 330864 334862 344858 349858 354860 360852
      363846 366840 369834 373828 381817 390809 397802 402791
      402777 407765 409759 409749 411742 414739 415736 421725
      432703
 0.25 547949 547938 546933 544931 538930 533934 527938 522941
      507943 501946 497950 486959 477967 468979 464984 461991
      459000 458005 459008 470014 473023 476029 481044 483048
      486050 490047 498036 506024 514013 524002 531992 536985
      540979 542973 545966 547957 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529143 528138 524134 517132
      511128 506126 502126 500121 500113 502100 503090 503083
      502078 500074 495072 492074 490075 490073 491063 488062
      485065 484070 482077 483084 481090 477095 464104 459111
      455117 445133 441140 439149 439152 442152 446153 450153
      453151 465143 473139 479136 485133 492131 497131 499136
      501146 520173 523178 527180 531177 533173
 0.25 435840 436834 435829 433825 430823 424822 417824 410827
      406834 404842 404852 405861 407871 411878 416884 425893
      432897 434893 434890 429871 428860 429854 430850 434845
      435840
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 378799 372799 367804 362811 355816
      353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806 378805
      381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387079 388071 387067 378064 372063 368065 364066 361062
      356062 353066 347070 342072 338074 330079 321082 315087
      311088 309084 308078 303075 299073 294072 285073 275071
      265066 248058 242057 236057 234060 234067 237070 242072
      246073 249075 255083 257086 262088 266088 271089 280092
      290094 295092 300092 305098 307109 329115 338119 343118
      346116 348111 349104 347092 360082 365079 369079 377084
      381084 384083 387079
 0.25 317759 316750 315741 312734 310732 306733 298740 294747
      291753 282760 277774 275779 274786 275793 272798 269800
      266801 258801 254803 252806 257813 276827 282838 288842
      291847 295851 300849 302842 300834 304822 304816 302811
      304808 308803 311798 312790 314782 316770 317759
 0.25 294945 293935 290922 289912 289905 291899 294876 292870
      288869 284868 280871 269886 265894 264899 263905 263917
      261929 255947 252956 251960 252963 257962 274954 283952
      292948 294945
 0.50 543955 543947 541941 537941 534944 527949 517951 499957
      493962 486969 480975 478981 477987 477994 478999 481012
      483015 488016 498015 506011 513006 520000 526991 536975
      540965 543955
 0.50 529172 530168 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 527175 529172
 0.50 488114 489107 485104 478108 471112 468115 466119 459126
      455132 454136 454139 457140 461139 465137 471132 478127
      484121 488114
 0.50 429840 428835 426832 419831 415832 412835 409843 411854
      413863 416872 420877 423878 424872 422862 421857 422853
      426846 429840
 0.50 343111 343105 341100 340097 336094 333096 329098 326100
      324104 326107 330109 333112 338114 342113 343111
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300749 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288799 293801 296800 301798
      304795 308784 311773 309758 309756
 0.50 291820 291818 290817 288816 287818 288820 290820 291820
 0.50 269937 269935 268935 266937 266939 268939 269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 259811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 530967 528965 523965 514966 510965 505966 497965
      491973 487977 486980 487985 489989 494991 499991 505992
      508996 513997 520990 525981 530971
 1.50 500977 500975 499974 497974 497975 495976 495977 494980
      495981 497980 498980 499979 500977

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 022143
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ON MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM QPF BASED ON LATEST SATL/RADR
TRENDS.



...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/SULLIVAN/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 526243 521242 518243 516240 517235 518231 523228
      527227 532225 536219 539210 541197 541189 541181 540173
      538169 530143 527137 524133 520129 512128 505130 502132
      497132 494131 494127 497123 502116 506114 511113 516109
      520104 522098 524089 526082 526075 524068 520066 517069
      514073 512078 508081 505077 502080 484084 478084 473085
      466084 463084 461086 429099 431102 432109 433114 435114
      440115 444113 447115 449121 450124 448127 445131 441135
      440139 441141 442149 443153 443158 442162 441163 433166
      425170 421174 417180 413193 412203 411207 414209 417210
      419210 419214 418222 420222 428218 432211 436209 438204
      440199 442197 445193 451190 455187 463179 464172 467167
      474163 477159 480161 483165 483171 484177 486183 488190
      489193 488198 470208 462213 458215 452215 437218 435223
      441225 442227 444227 449227 453226 453231 448233 439238
      439248 439253 443257 446258 452258 457258 461260 464264
      466266 469266 475270 478275 484287 490297 494302 499303
      503302 507299 513280 515277 515273 520271
 0.01 476694 475679 472661 469655 467651 465650 462651 460654
      458660 458665 460680 461685 460690 459696 456698 453702
      452704 450703 448698 444695 439694 434695 423700 420704
      418708 415717 412727 413737 415751 415756 414760 413765
      410787 407791 407795 406798 404797 402795 392779 388778
      384780 375786 369794 363804 360810 359814 355817 347822
      341827 339837 339843 342848 347850 353849 361843 365840
      370838 374835 378837 382844 383850 385853 393857 395871
      399875 401880 399887 398892 395902 394908 394914 391933
      393938 393942 391945 391950 393958 394960 396956 398942
      402932 407925 412920 417913 420910 425912 431914 435914
      445909 451909 455906 460899 462893 462887 463877 463864
      462848 460842 456838 449832 443823 438817 435813 437808
      436794 436788 440791 442793 447793 455786 461778 464771
      464765 466752 467740 470731 474725 476717 476708 476699
      476694
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421204 422207 423205
 0.01 421209 422207 421205 419206 419209 420211 421209
 0.01 430025 430020 429017 425011 417010 411014 404021 398025
      395030 391035 386040 380043 373041 369043 366048 362049
      358047 353045 351043 347043 337042 322045 315045 312048
      311051 310056 310060 312062 315068 314073 310074 293071
      281071 275073 267070 261068 252068 250071 250075 254081
      262089 270096 275101 277103 280102 284096 285094 288094
      292095 300096 304097 303099 300103 298105 298109 300116
      304121 307124 310126 314127 318128 326129 332128 337132
      342133 352127 357127 359125 365121 369117 372113 373102
      374100 377099 381099 383097 388092 399083 404080 408079
      415076 418071 421066 422060 421056 414053 406050 404048
      404045 407041 419037 427032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 375770 371768 366764 363760 356753 349747 344746
      338746 327752 319758 314758 308760 297779 290785 280789
      266791 256786 245785 241787 238791 236796 239799 244803
      250803 259799 260801 256804 250806 251810 249815 253818
      257822 261823 270825 288838 291841 296841 300844 301848
      302853 306856 309862 313865 319860 322850 320843 322837
      324829 324823 327814 330810 333811 338807 341802 346790
      348787 354784 359784 364786 369787 373783 377778 377776
 0.01 316939 316918 316910 314903 313898 312895 307890 302888
      299882 294878 292876 287876 281877 278883 275889 273896
      273903 275910 278916 280924 282927 282931 280937 276943
      270947 263954 256957 251962 248966 248972 250974 255975
      258976 262977 274976 278982 284985 294981 303971 309960
      311954 314947 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534181 533176 530170 526162 524155 521148 516144
      513144 510146 508154 498161 494166 493176 494180 496182
      502184 509188 513193 520207 522209 525209 528204 529199
      528194 527190 528188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503222 500216 498212 495210 493211 489210 482211
      477214 475217 475221 477224 477226 467237 465240 464244
      467250 469253 472254 476253 477250 485249 487248 488244
      483232 488229 493233 496236 500238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 481122 477124 472127 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 458169 461165
      466161 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 439762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 458879 455866 453855 443836 431821 426820 421823 416830
      423839 424843 424850 414865 409891 410894 417896 421898
      425897 434890 437888 442888 449896 453897 455893 458879
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 406061 406057 402057 397056 391057 388060 384064 381065
      375063 370063 367068 367074 370084 371086 375089 379087
      386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062 406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351767 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 333086 330090 326094 322093 320090
      316089 313092 309097 306104 308112 311117 316118 321117
      323110 330110 334111 337112 340111 341109 339107 336102
      341103 343098
 0.25 322788 321783 320777 315770 312771 308774 305780 298788
      291793 285798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259814 262817
      267818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292823 294826 298826
      301823 305823 308825 312824 317816 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300904 298897 294889 289885 284892 282899 283907
      285914 290931 290940 288945 284953 281960 281964 282967
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299944 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242002 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507170 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 497223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 453879 453873 451868 448863 445852 441846 440842 438838
      434833 428827 427830 427836 429846 432854 431860 427862
      422865 417872 415879 416885 419886 423891 427890 430887
      432881 435877 439876 445880 449887 451886 452882 453879
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318785 316782 311784 309786 303788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302809 299812 299816 302817
      305814 310814 314810 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 318103 318101 318099 316100 314100 314101 313103 312104
      312105 314105 315104 317103 318103
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 555957 556952 555947 552936 551931 552925 548918
      544909 539904 534899 528904 502932 499935 494936 486939
      478945 474947 469951 462957 455963 449968 444974 440981
      436988 427992 424994 421997 418003 415007 409014 401020
      398023 396028 394032 393034 389034 380031 377030 371032
      366032 362033 353035 345039 332048 327052 326058 324063
      317067 314069 310068 306065 299064 287063 276064 266060
      250052 242047 237046 232047 228050 227056 226069 230075
      236080 242084 248086 251089 262100 269106 277111 286116
      294122 298124 304125 310126 314125 322122 326121 332122
      334126 336132 340133 344133 347130 348127 350124 353124
      356124 359121 362116 365115 368112 370108 374105 377105
      381103 384100 388098 393098 395100 406081 411070 417065
      425058 428055 430050 433045 439045 443045 448044 457045
      462046 464051 459059 457062 457067 456074 458079 461088
      462092 461096 455097 447091 441090 438093 437100 441102
      441106 437107 435112 436117 440123 439131 436135 430144
      428148 424150 414161 413167 414171 419170 432161 440163
      442162 443164 447163 448166 448169 446174 442176 440177
      437175 432168 429168 425171 415189 410199 404207 402209
      401215 404223 414237 421241 426242 430241 434233 443231
      452230 461228 469224 477222 479222 480225 477229 473230
      470233 466236 467238 474245 477246 479247 480250 482260
      486267 490276 495283 500286 503285 506282 507277 505265
      496248 491238 488234 484232 482228 485225 490225 496236
      505253 509262 511266 514269 516270 519267 522264 523258
      525253 526245 528230 529223 530219 532216 533210 536205
      537199 538190 537176 538156 535144 532132 531127 529125
      528121 525113 523107 523099
 0.01 523099 526086 529074 530069 532064 535053 536037 535032
      535024 535016 537008 542001 546993 549982 550975 552971
      555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496162 494158
      487154 481156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169 461176
      461180 459182 453188 451191 451197 452201 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 457246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 418256 414257 401268 399272 397279
      398284 401289 405296 412299 416298 424296 431292 438287
      446283 461274 467272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 427810 417806 412805
      406806 400816 397829 395837 395846 395853 396859 400874
      402881 405886 408892 411897 419905 428912 432914 439915
      444916 450915 450906 448901 446895 444887 441871 440861
      440851 445841 450833
 0.01 432703 430698 425695 422694 422690 418688 413689 409693
      405698 404703 401711 399713 397710 395703 392701 389701
      387700 385703 383708 384717 386719 387724 382751 380757
      378759 374760 368759 366755 356752 347745 337736 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 306715 302719 299724 298726
      295728 289732 285736 278745 268768 265780 260789 255792
      250795 247798 245804 245810 246815 249821 251827 260837
      262844 265851 263867 261872 254872 248873 244875 243881
      243888 245896 245904 246923 246932 243936 239941 235945
      233951 232957 231971 231978 233983 232991 233997 235004
      238009 241014 248018 252020 257019 265019 270018 277017
      282014 284010 281006 277005 270004 265002 264994 259990
      256988 257986 263982 271982 277981 283979 286975 289970
      295966 300964 303962 304954 305942 307935 307927 306918
      307913 310912 313913 317914 319915 321913 324907 324901
      324883 327869 330864 334862 344858 349858 354860 360852
      363846 366840 369834 373828 381817 390809 397802 402791
      402777 407765 409759 409749 411742 414739 415736 421725
      432703
 0.25 547949 547938 546933 544931 538930 533934 527938 522941
      507943 501946 497950 486959 477967 468979 464984 461991
      459000 458005 459008 470014 473023 476029 481044 483048
      486050 490047 498036 506024 514013 524002 531992 536985
      540979 542973 545966 547957 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529143 528138 524134 517132
      511128 506126 502126 500121 500113 502100 503090 503083
      502078 500074 495072 492074 490075 490073 491063 488062
      485065 484070 482077 483084 481090 477095 464104 459111
      455117 445133 441140 439149 439152 442152 446153 450153
      453151 465143 473139 479136 485133 492131 497131 499136
      501146 520173 523178 527180 531177 533173
 0.25 435840 436834 435829 433825 430823 424822 417824 410827
      406834 404842 404852 405861 407871 411878 416884 425893
      432897 434893 434890 429871 428860 429854 430850 434845
      435840
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 378799 372799 367804 362811 355816
      353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806 378805
      381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387079 388071 387067 378064 372063 368065 364066 361062
      356062 353066 347070 342072 338074 330079 321082 315087
      311088 309084 308078 303075 299073 294072 285073 275071
      265066 248058 242057 236057 234060 234067 237070 242072
      246073 249075 255083 257086 262088 266088 271089 280092
      290094 295092 300092 305098 307109 329115 338119 343118
      346116 348111 349104 347092 360082 365079 369079 377084
      381084 384083 387079
 0.25 317759 316750 315741 312734 310732 306733 298740 294747
      291753 282760 277774 275779 274786 275793 272798 269800
      266801 258801 254803 252806 257813 276827 282838 288842
      291847 295851 300849 302842 300834 304822 304816 302811
      304808 308803 311798 312790 314782 316770 317759
 0.25 294945 293935 290922 289912 289905 291899 294876 292870
      288869 284868 280871 269886 265894 264899 263905 263917
      261929 255947 252956 251960 252963 257962 274954 283952
      292948 294945
 0.50 543955 543947 541941 537941 534944 527949 517951 499957
      493962 486969 480975 478981 477987 477994 478999 481012
      483015 488016 498015 506011 513006 520000 526991 536975
      540965 543955
 0.50 529172 530168 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 527175 529172
 0.50 488114 489107 485104 478108 471112 468115 466119 459126
      455132 454136 454139 457140 461139 465137 471132 478127
      484121 488114
 0.50 429840 428835 426832 419831 415832 412835 409843 411854
      413863 416872 420877 423878 424872 422862 421857 422853
      426846 429840
 0.50 343111 343105 341100 340097 336094 333096 329098 326100
      324104 326107 330109 333112 338114 342113 343111
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300749 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288799 293801 296800 301798
      304795 308784 311773 309758 309756
 0.50 291820 291818 290817 288816 287818 288820 290820 291820
 0.50 269937 269935 268935 266937 266939 268939 269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 259811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 530967 528965 523965 514966 510965 505966 497965
      491973 487977 486980 487985 489989 494991 499991 505992
      508996 513997 520990 525981 530971
 1.50 500977 500975 499974 497974 497975 495976 495977 494980
      495981 497980 498980 499979 500977

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 022053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
452 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 556949 552937 551932 552925 547917 544908 538902
      535900 532901 524907 514920 508926 501933 493937 485940
      469951 456964 445976 439984 436988 431990 424994 422996
      420001 409014 402018 397025 395029 392033 384033 379031
      369032 359033 344041 336045 333048 329050 327052 326059
      324063 320065 312069 304065 293063 283063 279064 272063
      265059 245050 239047 233046 229049 227052 226058 226064
      226071 232077 239082 247086 253091 266104 298124 308126
      316124 321123 324121 330121 333124 336132 342134 346132
      351124 355124 359121 362112 364108 366106 369106 373105
      377105 386100 388098 391098 395101 396096 398091 406075
      413068 420062 427056 431047 450044 461045 464048 464053
      460062 459067 458072 461084 462091 460097 455097 452094
      444090 439092 437097 438100 441102 441105 437107 435112
      436119 440119 440123 440127 437133 434138 430144 427149
      423151 417157 414160 413167 414171 416171 423167 430161
      436163 443163 448165 447172 443176 439177 436173 433170
      429168 426170 424175 413193 409201 403208 401212 402218
      407226 411233 413236 418239 427243 431240 432236 432233
      434233 437232 446231 464227 470223 478222 480224 479227
      476229 472231 468235 465236 468238 475245 479248 481254
      482259 485263 488271 493280 496284 501286 504284 507279
      505266 504261 501257 498249 493242 483226 488224 491225
      493228 494233 497239 506256 510265 513268 516270 522264
      523257 525253 528236 530218 534208 537203 538194 538186
      538177 538162 538156 536150 533138 531128 528124 527118
      525115 524109 523102 524094
 0.01 524094 527081 528076 530071 533061 535056 536048 536040
      535035 535019 536011 539006 543998 545995 547990 550976
      554968 555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496161 494158
      487154 484156 480156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169
      461176 461180 459183 453188 451191 451198 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 456246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 419255 414257 401268 399272 397279
      401289 406296 411299 416298 424295 431292 439287 446283
      461274 468272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 457910 445889 443882 442875 440866 440856 440851 441849
      444842 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 414811 409814
      405817 399827 395842 394848 396856 399871 404885 410894
      417903 426910 431914 436914 441913 448912 450913 453913
      457910
 0.01 432703 430699 426695 423694 422690 418688 412689 408694
      405698 404706 401712 398711 397709 396704 393701 387700
      384703 383710 384717 386719 387724 382752 380757 377759
      374760 370760 368758 363755 354750 345743 336735 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 304716 301720 296731 285737
      282742 280746 268769 266780 259789 254793 248796 245805
      245813 247819 249821 250825 254830 260839 262841 262845
      263854 264861 262868 261872 257872 250872 245875 244880
      243887 243891 245894 246926 244933 241938 238943 235948
      231959 231976 233982 232990 232997 234003 240012 249019
      252020 259019 267019 274018 279016 282012 284010 282008
      278005 271004 266003 264000 264995 260991 255988 260984
      262983 266982 272982 278980 285977 288972 290968 297958
      302947 303941 303932 303920 303911 303907 304905 308890
      311884 312878 321870 330864 340859 346857 351859 355859
      359854 370833 377823 380818 385813 394805 400796 402790
      403782 402778 404774 405768 408764 409761 409756 409747
      411742 418731 424720 429711 432703
 0.25 547949 547938 545931 544928 542929 536931 526939 514942
      506944 501947 492954 483964 479970 476977 474984 470991
      467996 463001 461005 462007 467011 473024 478029 482032
      488037 492037 494034 498030 503026 508022 512017 528996
      536986 542973 546962 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529144 528138 525134 519133
      511128 504126 500124 500118 501105 502094 503084 502078
      500075 496073 493074 488081 485089 480095 468103 462106
      458113 449127 445133 443136 441142 440145 439151 447154
      450153 453151 459147 471140 484133 490131 494130 498133
      503150 513163 522176 525180 528179 532176 533173
 0.25 491068 491066 491063 489062 488062 487063 486064 485065
      485067 484069 484070 483072 483075 482077 483080 484080
      485079 487078 488076 489075 490073 490071 491070 491068
 0.25 433838 433832 433828 430825 427822 418824 412828 408833
      405841 404850 405859 407869 411877 414883 420888 424893
      431897 433898 435895 433885 430876 428867 428860 430850
      433838
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 377799 372799 370800 367804 362811
      355816 353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806
      378805 381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387070 383067 379064 373062 370064 366067 362064 358062
      354064 351068 347070 342072 339074 332078 323082 316087
      312088 310085 306076 302074 296072 286073 275071 258063
      249059 239056 235058 233064 235069 240071 249074 254081
      257086 259088 269088 279092 289094 297092 302093 305097
      307107 310110 316112 334115 342116 345114 348110 348103
      345092 358079 360076 365074 369075 372078 373081 377081
      381078 387070
 0.25 317759 316749 314739 310733 308733 305735 299739 295744
      292751 291755 287757 282761 279767 274782 275789 275793
      273796 269800 259801 255802 252806 256813 262817 268820
      274824 278829 280836 286841 294851 298851 300849 301845
      301840 299832 299821 295815 290810 285806 291807 298807
      302806 305804 309799 311792 315776 317767 317759
 0.25 294943 292932 290921 289909 291897 293874 291870 287868
      282869 279872 274879 269886 265895 263900 263907 263919
      261930 258940 254950 251958 251962 253963 259962 276954
      284951 292947 294943
 0.50 543955 543947 541942 538941 534943 528949 520950 512952
      504955 496959 491965 486974 482983 480994 479002 479009
      481012 486013 495012 505012 511008 518002 523996 533980
      537971 541963 543955
 0.50 529172 530167 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 525174 527175
      529172
 0.50 488113 488107 485104 478109 471113 467120 464124 461128
      455134 455137 458138 465134 473130 480125 485118 488113
 0.50 424846 423841 422839 417836 412839 411845 411854 412861
      414868 417875 421877 423876 424872 422865 421855 423848
      424846
 0.50 335101 334099 332098 331098 329098 327100 326100 325102
      324102 324104 325104 326105 328106 330106 332106 332105
      334103 335101
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300750 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288798 293800 299799 303796
      306791 309782 310776 310769 309756
 0.50 269937 269935 268934 268935 266936 266937 266939 268939
      269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 529965 523964 514965 510965 505966 497965 494969
      492975 489990 490993 493994 499993 504995 508998 514997
      517994 523985 528976 530971
 1.50 504980 505978 504977 502975 500973 499974 497975 497977
      497980 497982 497983 499983 500983 500982 502982 504980
      504980

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 022053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
452 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 556949 552937 551932 552925 547917 544908 538902
      535900 532901 524907 514920 508926 501933 493937 485940
      469951 456964 445976 439984 436988 431990 424994 422996
      420001 409014 402018 397025 395029 392033 384033 379031
      369032 359033 344041 336045 333048 329050 327052 326059
      324063 320065 312069 304065 293063 283063 279064 272063
      265059 245050 239047 233046 229049 227052 226058 226064
      226071 232077 239082 247086 253091 266104 298124 308126
      316124 321123 324121 330121 333124 336132 342134 346132
      351124 355124 359121 362112 364108 366106 369106 373105
      377105 386100 388098 391098 395101 396096 398091 406075
      413068 420062 427056 431047 450044 461045 464048 464053
      460062 459067 458072 461084 462091 460097 455097 452094
      444090 439092 437097 438100 441102 441105 437107 435112
      436119 440119 440123 440127 437133 434138 430144 427149
      423151 417157 414160 413167 414171 416171 423167 430161
      436163 443163 448165 447172 443176 439177 436173 433170
      429168 426170 424175 413193 409201 403208 401212 402218
      407226 411233 413236 418239 427243 431240 432236 432233
      434233 437232 446231 464227 470223 478222 480224 479227
      476229 472231 468235 465236 468238 475245 479248 481254
      482259 485263 488271 493280 496284 501286 504284 507279
      505266 504261 501257 498249 493242 483226 488224 491225
      493228 494233 497239 506256 510265 513268 516270 522264
      523257 525253 528236 530218 534208 537203 538194 538186
      538177 538162 538156 536150 533138 531128 528124 527118
      525115 524109 523102 524094
 0.01 524094 527081 528076 530071 533061 535056 536048 536040
      535035 535019 536011 539006 543998 545995 547990 550976
      554968 555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496161 494158
      487154 484156 480156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169
      461176 461180 459183 453188 451191 451198 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 456246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 419255 414257 401268 399272 397279
      401289 406296 411299 416298 424295 431292 439287 446283
      461274 468272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 457910 445889 443882 442875 440866 440856 440851 441849
      444842 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 414811 409814
      405817 399827 395842 394848 396856 399871 404885 410894
      417903 426910 431914 436914 441913 448912 450913 453913
      457910
 0.01 432703 430699 426695 423694 422690 418688 412689 408694
      405698 404706 401712 398711 397709 396704 393701 387700
      384703 383710 384717 386719 387724 382752 380757 377759
      374760 370760 368758 363755 354750 345743 336735 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 304716 301720 296731 285737
      282742 280746 268769 266780 259789 254793 248796 245805
      245813 247819 249821 250825 254830 260839 262841 262845
      263854 264861 262868 261872 257872 250872 245875 244880
      243887 243891 245894 246926 244933 241938 238943 235948
      231959 231976 233982 232990 232997 234003 240012 249019
      252020 259019 267019 274018 279016 282012 284010 282008
      278005 271004 266003 264000 264995 260991 255988 260984
      262983 266982 272982 278980 285977 288972 290968 297958
      302947 303941 303932 303920 303911 303907 304905 308890
      311884 312878 321870 330864 340859 346857 351859 355859
      359854 370833 377823 380818 385813 394805 400796 402790
      403782 402778 404774 405768 408764 409761 409756 409747
      411742 418731 424720 429711 432703
 0.25 547949 547938 545931 544928 542929 536931 526939 514942
      506944 501947 492954 483964 479970 476977 474984 470991
      467996 463001 461005 462007 467011 473024 478029 482032
      488037 492037 494034 498030 503026 508022 512017 528996
      536986 542973 546962 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529144 528138 525134 519133
      511128 504126 500124 500118 501105 502094 503084 502078
      500075 496073 493074 488081 485089 480095 468103 462106
      458113 449127 445133 443136 441142 440145 439151 447154
      450153 453151 459147 471140 484133 490131 494130 498133
      503150 513163 522176 525180 528179 532176 533173
 0.25 491068 491066 491063 489062 488062 487063 486064 485065
      485067 484069 484070 483072 483075 482077 483080 484080
      485079 487078 488076 489075 490073 490071 491070 491068
 0.25 433838 433832 433828 430825 427822 418824 412828 408833
      405841 404850 405859 407869 411877 414883 420888 424893
      431897 433898 435895 433885 430876 428867 428860 430850
      433838
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 377799 372799 370800 367804 362811
      355816 353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806
      378805 381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387070 383067 379064 373062 370064 366067 362064 358062
      354064 351068 347070 342072 339074 332078 323082 316087
      312088 310085 306076 302074 296072 286073 275071 258063
      249059 239056 235058 233064 235069 240071 249074 254081
      257086 259088 269088 279092 289094 297092 302093 305097
      307107 310110 316112 334115 342116 345114 348110 348103
      345092 358079 360076 365074 369075 372078 373081 377081
      381078 387070
 0.25 317759 316749 314739 310733 308733 305735 299739 295744
      292751 291755 287757 282761 279767 274782 275789 275793
      273796 269800 259801 255802 252806 256813 262817 268820
      274824 278829 280836 286841 294851 298851 300849 301845
      301840 299832 299821 295815 290810 285806 291807 298807
      302806 305804 309799 311792 315776 317767 317759
 0.25 294943 292932 290921 289909 291897 293874 291870 287868
      282869 279872 274879 269886 265895 263900 263907 263919
      261930 258940 254950 251958 251962 253963 259962 276954
      284951 292947 294943
 0.50 543955 543947 541942 538941 534943 528949 520950 512952
      504955 496959 491965 486974 482983 480994 479002 479009
      481012 486013 495012 505012 511008 518002 523996 533980
      537971 541963 543955
 0.50 529172 530167 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 525174 527175
      529172
 0.50 488113 488107 485104 478109 471113 467120 464124 461128
      455134 455137 458138 465134 473130 480125 485118 488113
 0.50 424846 423841 422839 417836 412839 411845 411854 412861
      414868 417875 421877 423876 424872 422865 421855 423848
      424846
 0.50 335101 334099 332098 331098 329098 327100 326100 325102
      324102 324104 325104 326105 328106 330106 332106 332105
      334103 335101
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300750 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288798 293800 299799 303796
      306791 309782 310776 310769 309756
 0.50 269937 269935 268934 268935 266936 266937 266939 268939
      269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 529965 523964 514965 510965 505966 497965 494969
      492975 489990 490993 493994 499993 504995 508998 514997
      517994 523985 528976 530971
 1.50 504980 505978 504977 502975 500973 499974 497975 497977
      497980 497982 497983 499983 500983 500982 502982 504980
      504980

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 022053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
452 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REDUCES FLOW IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MICHIGAN BY THE START OF DAY
2.  GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SPLIT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 12Z GEM REGIONAL SUPPORT A STRONGER/CONSOLIDATED FEATURE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ROLLING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI BY
MORNING FRIDAY.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED
OUT FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.  A BLEND
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/NAM IS CONTINUED BUT WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE
OTHER CAMP GIVEN CONSISTENCY.  STILL WITH WEAKENED FLOW AND NO
REFRESH OF MOISTURE... THE FEATURE LINGERS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LIKELY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONVERGED ON BOUNDARIES REINFORCED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION OR THE LAKES.

FURTHER EAST...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BACK TO THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARIES
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS FAVORED OROGRAPHY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 3. SOME
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF QPF EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/PIEDMONT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSES OBVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY
MID-AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PEAK HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HELPING TO
SPAWN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST PARTICULARLY EASTERN/CENTRAL AZ WESTERN NM INTO CO.
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS NOT BEING TAPPED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE EXCEPT LIKELY AT
HIGHER LEVELS (6H-3H).  A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WITH SOLID ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
THROUGHOUT THE MONSOONAL AXIS AND EVEN THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT MORE ROBUST...THIS HINTS AT A CONTINUED SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY (05/00Z).


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD LEVEL ASCENT UNDER STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FOR GOOD DEFORMATIONAL SHIELD PRECIPITATION AS
THE JET STREAK EXITS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
MT...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF INCREASED
PRECIP FROM FAR NE CA/SOUTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH WESTERN MT. A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO WELL THOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF APPEARED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND WEST BY DAY 3
AND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT MORE THERE.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/NORTHERN PLAINS....THE DEEPENING
TROUGH DRAWS A FEW SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING INCREASES
SOUTHERLY LLJ INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.75" RANGE AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...TO
DEVELOPED A HIGHLY EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO STRADDLE THE
US/CANADA BOARDER.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS PROVIDING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/MAGNITUDE
OF THE QPF AREAL AVERAGE ALSO TOWARD LOWER FFG...TO ALLOW FOR A
EASTWARD SHIFT TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER BASIN WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 3.

SATURDAY...INCREASED 35KT PLUS RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WITHIN
BROAD ASCENT REGION OF CONVEYOR BELT/WRAP AROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF MODERATE DEFORMATIONAL ZONE SHOWERS ACROSS N MT/E MT.
 THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS A BIT QUICK IN DRYING OUT AND EJECTING THE
BASE OF THE TROF...AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE IS PLACED
FURTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z GFS...  STILL A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT
RETAINING THE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT SEEMS FAIR... WITH THE NEXT
EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OUT OF NW SD IN THE SPLIT
IN THE NORTHERN AND SUBTROPICAL JET FLOWS.   NORTHEAST MT INTO ND
BARES WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THOUGH DIFFERENCES
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN SPECIFIC LOCATION TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

THE WEAK CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SARGASSO SEA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
CAROLINAS/GEORGIA/FLORIDA THOUGH LEAVING A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH SOME
POOLED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS
SHOULD INVOKE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO FLORIDA.  BY DAY
3...INFLUENCES FROM WEAK SHEAR AXIS DROPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOCUS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM COASTAL GA AND EASTERN FL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF  CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED
FORCING CROSSES PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASED WEIGHTING ON THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF.


BURKE/GALLINA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 555966 556949 552937 551932 552925 547917 544908 538902
      535900 532901 524907 514920 508926 501933 493937 485940
      469951 456964 445976 439984 436988 431990 424994 422996
      420001 409014 402018 397025 395029 392033 384033 379031
      369032 359033 344041 336045 333048 329050 327052 326059
      324063 320065 312069 304065 293063 283063 279064 272063
      265059 245050 239047 233046 229049 227052 226058 226064
      226071 232077 239082 247086 253091 266104 298124 308126
      316124 321123 324121 330121 333124 336132 342134 346132
      351124 355124 359121 362112 364108 366106 369106 373105
      377105 386100 388098 391098 395101 396096 398091 406075
      413068 420062 427056 431047 450044 461045 464048 464053
      460062 459067 458072 461084 462091 460097 455097 452094
      444090 439092 437097 438100 441102 441105 437107 435112
      436119 440119 440123 440127 437133 434138 430144 427149
      423151 417157 414160 413167 414171 416171 423167 430161
      436163 443163 448165 447172 443176 439177 436173 433170
      429168 426170 424175 413193 409201 403208 401212 402218
      407226 411233 413236 418239 427243 431240 432236 432233
      434233 437232 446231 464227 470223 478222 480224 479227
      476229 472231 468235 465236 468238 475245 479248 481254
      482259 485263 488271 493280 496284 501286 504284 507279
      505266 504261 501257 498249 493242 483226 488224 491225
      493228 494233 497239 506256 510265 513268 516270 522264
      523257 525253 528236 530218 534208 537203 538194 538186
      538177 538162 538156 536150 533138 531128 528124 527118
      525115 524109 523102 524094
 0.01 524094 527081 528076 530071 533061 535056 536048 536040
      535035 535019 536011 539006 543998 545995 547990 550976
      554968 555966
 0.01 493202 494196 493191 491183 492171 496166 496161 494158
      487154 484156 480156 474158 468160 461161 458164 457169
      461176 461180 459183 453188 451191 451198 454205 459210
      465210 471208 475208 478207 483203 486202 490202 493202
 0.01 472269 474262 472258 470253 465249 456246 452245 449246
      446245 430250 422253 419255 414257 401268 399272 397279
      401289 406296 411299 416298 424295 431292 439287 446283
      461274 468272 472269
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 457910 445889 443882 442875 440866 440856 440851 441849
      444842 450833 450826 448819 444814 438811 414811 409814
      405817 399827 395842 394848 396856 399871 404885 410894
      417903 426910 431914 436914 441913 448912 450913 453913
      457910
 0.01 432703 430699 426695 423694 422690 418688 412689 408694
      405698 404706 401712 398711 397709 396704 393701 387700
      384703 383710 384717 386719 387724 382752 380757 377759
      374760 370760 368758 363755 354750 345743 336735 329726
      325721 321717 317715 311714 304716 301720 296731 285737
      282742 280746 268769 266780 259789 254793 248796 245805
      245813 247819 249821 250825 254830 260839 262841 262845
      263854 264861 262868 261872 257872 250872 245875 244880
      243887 243891 245894 246926 244933 241938 238943 235948
      231959 231976 233982 232990 232997 234003 240012 249019
      252020 259019 267019 274018 279016 282012 284010 282008
      278005 271004 266003 264000 264995 260991 255988 260984
      262983 266982 272982 278980 285977 288972 290968 297958
      302947 303941 303932 303920 303911 303907 304905 308890
      311884 312878 321870 330864 340859 346857 351859 355859
      359854 370833 377823 380818 385813 394805 400796 402790
      403782 402778 404774 405768 408764 409761 409756 409747
      411742 418731 424720 429711 432703
 0.25 547949 547938 545931 544928 542929 536931 526939 514942
      506944 501947 492954 483964 479970 476977 474984 470991
      467996 463001 461005 462007 467011 473024 478029 482032
      488037 492037 494034 498030 503026 508022 512017 528996
      536986 542973 546962 547949
 0.25 533173 534168 533162 531153 529144 528138 525134 519133
      511128 504126 500124 500118 501105 502094 503084 502078
      500075 496073 493074 488081 485089 480095 468103 462106
      458113 449127 445133 443136 441142 440145 439151 447154
      450153 453151 459147 471140 484133 490131 494130 498133
      503150 513163 522176 525180 528179 532176 533173
 0.25 491068 491066 491063 489062 488062 487063 486064 485065
      485067 484069 484070 483072 483075 482077 483080 484080
      485079 487078 488076 489075 490073 490071 491070 491068
 0.25 433838 433832 433828 430825 427822 418824 412828 408833
      405841 404850 405859 407869 411877 414883 420888 424893
      431897 433898 435895 433885 430876 428867 428860 430850
      433838
 0.25 387801 386797 381798 377799 372799 370800 367804 362811
      355816 353819 353826 358827 361824 367818 372810 374806
      378805 381806 385804 387801
 0.25 387070 383067 379064 373062 370064 366067 362064 358062
      354064 351068 347070 342072 339074 332078 323082 316087
      312088 310085 306076 302074 296072 286073 275071 258063
      249059 239056 235058 233064 235069 240071 249074 254081
      257086 259088 269088 279092 289094 297092 302093 305097
      307107 310110 316112 334115 342116 345114 348110 348103
      345092 358079 360076 365074 369075 372078 373081 377081
      381078 387070
 0.25 317759 316749 314739 310733 308733 305735 299739 295744
      292751 291755 287757 282761 279767 274782 275789 275793
      273796 269800 259801 255802 252806 256813 262817 268820
      274824 278829 280836 286841 294851 298851 300849 301845
      301840 299832 299821 295815 290810 285806 291807 298807
      302806 305804 309799 311792 315776 317767 317759
 0.25 294943 292932 290921 289909 291897 293874 291870 287868
      282869 279872 274879 269886 265895 263900 263907 263919
      261930 258940 254950 251958 251962 253963 259962 276954
      284951 292947 294943
 0.50 543955 543947 541942 538941 534943 528949 520950 512952
      504955 496959 491965 486974 482983 480994 479002 479009
      481012 486013 495012 505012 511008 518002 523996 533980
      537971 541963 543955
 0.50 529172 530167 529163 528156 526148 523144 517141 510141
      508146 509151 513158 517161 521165 523172 525174 527175
      529172
 0.50 488113 488107 485104 478109 471113 467120 464124 461128
      455134 455137 458138 465134 473130 480125 485118 488113
 0.50 424846 423841 422839 417836 412839 411845 411854 412861
      414868 417875 421877 423876 424872 422865 421855 423848
      424846
 0.50 335101 334099 332098 331098 329098 327100 326100 325102
      324102 324104 325104 326105 328106 330106 332106 332105
      334103 335101
 0.50 309756 309749 304747 300750 297754 294758 291761 287770
      281778 281784 283790 285794 288798 293800 299799 303796
      306791 309782 310776 310769 309756
 0.50 269937 269935 268934 268935 266936 266937 266939 268939
      269937
 0.50 263809 262807 261806 259805 258804 256805 256807 256808
      257809 258811 260811 262811 263809
 1.00 530971 529965 523964 514965 510965 505966 497965 494969
      492975 489990 490993 493994 499993 504995 508998 514997
      517994 523985 528976 530971
 1.50 504980 505978 504977 502975 500973 499974 497975 497977
      497980 497982 497983 499983 500983 500982 502982 504980
      504980

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 556886 556873 554865 550850 547840 546833 546826 547808
      540794 535783 531776 529772 526772 513780 509781 507784
      506792 504806 503811 502816 500825 498835 496842 492859
      491864 490867 488871 480888 477895 473900 463910 455918
      452923 448930 443937 440944 435949 431953 421958 416964
      411969 405974 401979 398984 394991 389002 381014 373028
      366039 356042 352043 348043 341040 337038 334039 328042
      321054 315062 312066 310066 306067 303065 295062 288063
      281063 274062 264057 252048 242040 235033 233031 230031
      227035 225056 224065 225071 228076 231079 239083 244085
      247089 254096 263104 267107 273110 285112 303123 308124
      314123 317121 320118 323116 327116 331117 334119 336119
      338115 341111 353091 358088 363086 370088 374090 378092
      379097 385091 395087 401074 406067 405064 405061 407058
      406056 405053 402051 401048 401044 405037 409036 413035
      416031 420022 427011 430009 433008 434011 436017 434025
      429041 431047 434050 443047 447050 449055 453064 452068
      450070 448072 446070 443070 441072 444075 445078 444080
      442083 438083 435083 433085 428089 426094 429099 430102
      428103 425105 423103 410091 398108 394112 390114 393119
      399118 407119 410120 413122 421128 425129 427126 434119
      437126 436130 434135 429149 424160 420166 417173 416175
      414180 414184 415186 414191 411194 399206 400212 403217
      410220 414224 419226 425225 437224 443225 448222 455214
      456204 462198 481182 497172 502167 506164 515166 519170
      521167 525158 526153 527150 528139 528130 530123 534109
      538089 537078 535073 535064
 0.01 535064 537059 535058 533045 531040 529039 523038 519030
      514024 509019 507017 508014 511014 515012 517009 523002
      527997 533991 544979 549960 552950 552943 551938 553914
      554906 555903 556887 556886
 0.01 449889 449884 448883 445877 438868 434864 428862 419858
      414856 410856 408859 406859 405863 405871 405878 409884
      418889 425889 430891 437892 443894 446894 449889
 0.01 441854 441846 439844 439839 434830 429821 425819 420817
      414818 409821 406824 404829 405836 407843 413850 422855
      426857 431857 436857 439856 441854 441854
 0.01 275720 272727 271733 268738 267743 266767 263784 258785
      254788 245809 244816 245822 253829 260836 265843 268851
      269862 267878 261886 256898 253903 251909 249915 249922
      247933 245938 242941 235951 232955 231964 232970 235976
      239980 234983 232991 232999 234004 237008 245012 252013
      256011 261009 266006 273005 275003 274000 262994 258990
      254986 250981 247980 248978 256970 263966 266964 269965
      272968 272972 273980 279981 283981 284977 292970 298956
      302950 308949 313945 314941 313935 314929 317925 323924
      327927 332928 332924 330922 326915 321904 317900 313892
      317878 323869 329862 336861 342861 349858 355853 363843
      366839 371835 374832 376826 378817 381812 388803 394795
      398786 401781 400775 398772 396770 394770 387774 381774
      370781 365784 363785 360783 356780 355774 360765 368760
      370754 369745 360735 359733 355733 349733 348736 345737
      339733 336735 335739 335742 333756 330760 326762 316768
      313766 312764 308758 307754 305751 303743 300738 299734
      297731 296728 293726 288724 276718
 0.25 543887 544877 543868 542852 540850 537851 531857 526859
      522862 516871 503888 497895 491903 484919 479930 470936
      454946 446952 443956 441961 440966 440971 441976 440981
      443986 449987 454989 456995 450022 451029 454034 458043
      460052 461063 461081 461090 458094 455096 454103 454117
      453125 450129 445138 442142 441146 440153 441157 445167
      444176 441181 433185 427194 424200 421203 418207 420211
      426213 434212 439210 443206 449198 456192 463186 476169
      486159 490155 494154 500155 504153 508151 511147 514141
      515132 514116 516100 520077 521066 520059 517053 514049
      503031 496026 487022 483020 481017 480012 480007 480999
      480995 482991 485994 487999 490003 494002 502995 512991
      519987 524983 530977 536967 539961 541954 543941 543922
      543912 543904 542899 543893 543887
 0.25 387077 388073 387070 382065 377063 370061 366061 360065
      360069 365074 369077 374080 377082 381081 385078 387077
 0.25 366807 365802 360801 352804 342807 335811 328816 323820
      320821 315819 306817 302810 297805 285794 279777 276780
      275785 271793 269796 265798 258801 254803 253808 255814
      257817 263821 269825 272827 274831 279838 284845 286853
      289862 292867 295870 299871 304870 309865 312862 313858
      313850 316846 319844 328844 332843 338845 345847 352843
      356837 359828 362818 364813 366807
 0.25 358750 358745 357743 353743 350743 348745 347749 346752
      347756 348759 350761 352760 355757 357755 358752 358750
 0.25 355075 356071 353070 347071 340071 335073 332077 329083
      326089 327092 331093 338094 342090 345085 349081 353077
      355075
 0.25 301796 301795 299794 299793 297792 295791 293792 293793
      293795 293797 294798 294799 296799 297799 299799 301798
      301797 301796
 0.25 260076 257069 253064 249058 243054 236051 232053 231057
      231061 233065 237069 243074 248077 252078 256077 260076
 0.50 537891 537880 534874 530873 524878 517888 513896 513900
      512903 508911 505916 497927 490937 484942 479945 472947
      467947 460952 455957 472974 478977 483978 487983 491990
      494992 498991 502989 513982 519978 522975 531963 534957
      536951 537939 537925 536907 537891
 0.50 508099 509080 510067 507060 494035 482031 477030 474031
      469035 466042 465048 465058 466068 471081 474088 479094
      482099 484106 483111 481115 475118 470120 466123 461129
      457135 454141 452147 452150 455154 462151 467149 471146
      476144 485144 497144 503142 504138 505132 505124 506115
      508099
 0.50 472009 473006 472004 472001 472000 470999 468000 468001
      467004 466006 465008 465011 466013 466014 468014 469014
      470013 471011 472009
 0.50 376071 375069 375068 374069 374070 376071 376071
 0.50 306859 306852 305846 303844 300840 297838 293836 291836
      291839 292843 294848 296853 298857 300861 306859 306859
 0.50 276820 274816 271812 269809 265806 261806 258808 258812
      260816 264818 267820 271822 275822 276820
 1.00 529947 530941 529937 528926 529916 529910 528904 525905
      520910 513920 507931 506937 505947 499957 497966 503970
      508970 514968 518965 522960 528949 529947
 1.00 488068 489060 487055 485051 482049 477049 474051 472056
      473062 475066 477069 482072 486070 488068

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 021830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 021830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 021830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 021830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
SHOW FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...A SWATH OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE BROAD 850-600 MB FRONTAL ZONE AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT
BASIN. OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SPOTS OF 0.75-INCH PLUS
PRECIPITATION IN NW WA / ID / MT. WPC QPF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH 0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE FORECAST IN
SPOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCH AREAS. THIS
NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST...ANALOG...DATA ACROSS
ID/MT...ALTHOUGH THAT TOOL IS DRIER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
OVERALL WE INTRODUCED VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY OVER THIS
REGION.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EAU CLAIR
WISCONSIN TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS
WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY DISPLAY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z WRF-ARW. THE GFS WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MORE LIBERAL WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DID BECOME PROBABLY TOO DRY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.


...GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF BRIDGES TO RIDGING IN THE PLAINS
STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE TROUGH
THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z
NSSL WRF...GEM REGIONAL...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE
QPF IN THIS REGION.


...SOUTHWEST...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN BETWEEN A GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE CENTER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION IN
TERMS OF MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION...AND MANY OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON
LOCAL SCALES. WPC QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...BUT
ULTIMATELY MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 528247 527243 522242 517242 516239 517235 520229 525228
      534223 536218 539211 540206 541195 541181 540174 538169
      535158 530147 528140 525134 521130 516128 511128 507129
      503132 498132 495132 493129 497123 499119 502116 506114
      511113 514111 518107 523094 524086 526084 526078 525072
      523068 518067 515072 512077 509081 505078 502080 500082
      497084 495082 492083 486083 476084 463084 459088 455091
      453093 447094 441093 437094 433095 429099 446128 444133
      441135 442141 442149 443155 442162 433166 425170 421173
      419177 416181 415190 413197 411207 415210 419210 418223
      422222 425219 429216 432211 436209 438204 441198 443194
      453189 461181 463178 465171 468167 472165 476161 477159
      480160 481163 484166 483171 486182 488187 489193 488197
      487200 483203 472206 468210 464212 461214 457215 447216
      442216 437218 435223 440225 442227 448227 453226 454231
      451232 441235 438239 439246 439253 443257 452258 456258
      461260 477272 489295 492300 497303 501302 505301 508297
      510291 510284 513280 515275 517272 520271 528247
 0.01 476694 475680 473665 471658 468653 465650 461651 458660
      459675 460682 460689 459696 456698 451704 449699 446696
      438694 431696 426699 423701 420704 416714 413724 412729
      413737 415750 415757 414762 412767 410772 412777 413781
      411784 407792 407796 405797 401794 397786 395782 392779
      389778 385780 377784 371791 368795 365801 361809 359814
      355816 347822 341827 339836 339843 341847 343849 349850
      355848 359844 367839 375835 379838 381842 383849 385853
      391857 393864 395872 398881 395898 394911 391930 389947
      392958 398953 403937 407926 411921 417913 420911 423910
      425911 432914 437913 441911 444909 447909 450908 452906
      456901 460896 461890 463878 463864 462849 458840 450834
      444825 439818 437815 435812 436809 436794 436788 440791
      442793 447793 453787 460780 464770 464762 465756 467744
      467738 470733 474725 476717 476709 476700 476694
 0.01 430025 430021 429018 426012 424010 420010 416010 413012
      404020 395030 392034 388039 381042 378043 375042 372041
      369043 366048 363049 358047 353045 347043 340042 332043
      325045 317045 313047 311049 310054 310059 312062 315067
      315072 312074 296071 267070 262068 254068 250069 250074
      253079 257084 261088 270096 275100 276102 279103 283099
      285094 290094 297095 301096 304097 300102 299105 298109
      300116 303121 309125 311127 316127 324128 327129 330128
      342133 346131 350126 355127 358126 363123 368118 372113
      373103 374100 377099 381099 383097 387093 397084 402081
      408079 414076 416074 418071 421067 422057 420055 415053
      409051 405049 403047 407042 419037 426032 430025
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380120 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 377776 376770 371768 367765 363760 357754 349747 340746
      335748 329751 325753 321757 308760 303768 301773 298779
      290784 280789 268791 257787 246785 241787 238791 236796
      238799 248803 254802 258799 261800 260801 256804 250806
      251809 249814 252818 260823 270825 275826 278828 278830
      286838 295841 300843 301848 302853 305856 309860 312865
      319860 322850 320844 321839 324825 327815 330810 333811
      337808 340804 345792 347788 352785 359784 364786 368787
      373783 377776
 0.01 316939 316919 316910 314903 312896 307890 302888 299882
      295878 292876 288875 281877 278883 275888 273896 273902
      275910 280923 282930 280937 272947 263954 252961 248965
      248972 250974 254975 261977 274976 277981 283985 294981
      303971 309960 313948 316939
 0.01 261004 258998 254992 250987 244982 237981 234982 232985
      232995 234003 238009 241010 245011 248012 252012 257008
      261004
 0.25 533187 534182 533176 530170 526163 524155 521148 516144
      513143 510146 508154 498161 494166 493170 493176 493179
      495182 502184 508188 513193 520207 521209 525209 528204
      528188 532188 533187
 0.25 524184 525182 525179 525177 525175 524174 523173 522171
      520170 519169 518169 517172 516174 516177 516178 517180
      517182 517183 519183 521184 522185 524184 524184
 0.25 514158 514155 512155 513158 514158
 0.25 504234 503223 500216 496210 489210 482211 477214 475216
      474221 477223 477226 467237 464244 467250 469253 472254
      475253 477250 484250 487248 488244 488241 486237 482235
      483232 487228 493233 496236 499238 504234
 0.25 488136 488123 485122 482122 477124 473126 469131 461141
      457143 454147 450153 448160 449168 453171 457169 461165
      465162 470159 476149 485141 488136
 0.25 450741 449738 447738 442737 439736 435736 432740 431745
      432752 433759 436761 438762 441760 443757 444752 446746
      448743 450741
 0.25 442711 441706 440706 436707 435709 433711 432713 429716
      428719 430723 432724 434725 435725 438722 440720 441717
      442713 442711
 0.25 454874 455867 454859 453854 451850 446841 442834 430820
      425820 421823 416830 421837 424841 424848 424853 420857
      415863 412873 411885 410890 410894 415895 418898 422899
      427897 432891 435889 441887 444887 449884 453879 454874
 0.25 406061 406058 403057 397056 391056 388060 384064 381065
      376063 370063 367068 367074 369078 370084 371086 374088
      379087 386081 390082 393079 397074 399069 401064 405062
      406061
 0.25 363776 362772 360769 359767 357765 356764 354761 351762
      350764 351766 351769 351773 353774 355775 358777 361777
      363776
 0.25 343098 342092 339087 334085 330090 326094 322093 321090
      317089 313092 309098 307104 308111 311117 316118 321117
      322111 330110 340111 341109 339107 336102 341103 343098
 0.25 322788 320778 318774 315770 312770 309773 305780 298787
      291793 286798 276801 266804 260807 258810 259813 262817
      266818 272816 279813 288814 290816 292822 294826 298826
      300823 305823 307825 312824 317817 319808 322788
 0.25 304085 304083 301081 298080 294080 290079 287079 283079
      280080 283082 284083 288084 292085 295085 299086 303086
      304085
 0.25 301914 300905 298897 295889 289885 284891 283895 282899
      283906 285914 290931 291939 288945 284952 281960 281966
      286967 288964 296953 298950 299945 299935 299924 300916
      301914
 0.25 278092 278090 277086 277084 274081 272081 270081 268083
      265084 267087 269088 271089 273092 275094 278094 278092
 0.25 252002 251998 249996 248994 246992 244991 240990 237991
      236993 236997 238999 240001 242003 245004 247004 249004
      252002
 0.50 507177 507174 507172 507171 507169 506167 504167 503166
      501167 500167 499168 498169 497170 497172 496174 497176
      497177 498178 500179 501179 503179 505179 507177 507177
 0.50 497229 497227 497226 496223 496222 495220 493219 492219
      491219 491220 492222 493223 494225 494226 495228 496228
      497231 497229
 0.50 489219 488217 487216 485216 483216 483217 481218 481219
      483220 484221 486221 488221 488220 489219
 0.50 479238 479236 478234 476235 475237 475238 477239 478239
      479238
 0.50 467155 469152 468150 467150 466150 464151 463151 462152
      461153 460155 460157 461157 463157 465157 467155 467155
 0.50 450867 448861 445853 441847 439839 435834 431830 429827
      427827 427830 428841 430849 432857 431861 427862 422865
      418871 416877 415882 416886 422889 424891 427890 431885
      435880 442878 448875 450869 450867
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380072 380070 379069 378068 376067
      376066 375066 373066 372066 372068 373069 373071 373073
      373075 373077 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 338093 337092 336093 336094 337095 338096 339095
 0.50 319791 318786 316782 312784 309786 304788 300790 295796
      292800 292803 298804 301806 302808 299812 299816 302817
      304814 307813 310814 314811 315807 317797 319791
 0.50 319104 318101 318100 316101 314103 315104 317104 319104
 0.50 314105 314104 312104 312105 314105 314105
 0.50 295912 296908 295903 294901 293897 292895 291893 288893
      286895 286900 286904 287908 288911 289914 291916 293917
      295914 295912
 0.50 278807 277805 274804 270805 267806 265808 264810 263813
      265815 268815 271814 273813 275811 278809 278807

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 021615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 1615Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW TCS 65 E DUG 65 SSW DUG 50 SW OLS 25 SSE CGZ 35 SSW INW
50 W RQE 45 N RQE 45 SSE FMN 30 W AEG 30 NNW TCS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.


...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONNECTS WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
WILL FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT
FORM...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 021615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 1615Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW TCS 65 E DUG 65 SSW DUG 50 SW OLS 25 SSE CGZ 35 SSW INW
50 W RQE 45 N RQE 45 SSE FMN 30 W AEG 30 NNW TCS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.


...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONNECTS WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
WILL FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT
FORM...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 021615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 1615Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW TCS 65 E DUG 65 SSW DUG 50 SW OLS 25 SSE CGZ 35 SSW INW
50 W RQE 45 N RQE 45 SSE FMN 30 W AEG 30 NNW TCS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.


...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONNECTS WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
WILL FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT
FORM...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 021615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 1615Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW TCS 65 E DUG 65 SSW DUG 50 SW OLS 25 SSE CGZ 35 SSW INW
50 W RQE 45 N RQE 45 SSE FMN 30 W AEG 30 NNW TCS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.


...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONNECTS WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
WILL FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT
FORM...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 021615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 1615Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW TCS 65 E DUG 65 SSW DUG 50 SW OLS 25 SSE CGZ 35 SSW INW
50 W RQE 45 N RQE 45 SSE FMN 30 W AEG 30 NNW TCS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH. THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION
TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST
ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ
TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER
SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...AND
ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME TRAINING. THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.


...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. HEAVY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WAS
ALSO NOTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FARTHER UP THE LENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AGAIN WITHIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AT
LOW LEVELS. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION...BUT IT WILL START TO
FRACTURE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONNECTS WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS STATES TO FORM A COL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
WILL FAVOR PROLONGED WEAK ASCENT OVER LOUISIANA...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG THE TEXAS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT
FORM...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 021458
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 15Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.



...TEXAS COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE
SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ALSO EXTENDING
TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH.
THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE
PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A
GIVEN LOCATION...AND ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME
TRAINING. THE MODEL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN THIS REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 021458
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 15Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ALSO IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MN/WI BORDER THIS MORNING TO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LEADING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MIGRATING ALONG A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TRAILING
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MINNEAPOLIS AREA TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA. MANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS WERE THOUGHT TO NOT BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...AND LIKELY
DISPLAY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS TO THEIR QPF. WPC PREFERRED THE
00Z SPC WRF...WHICH SHOWED SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF AND
ECMWF.

GENERALLY THE SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
WITH REASONABLY STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE...SHOULD PROMOTE FORWARD
PROGRESSION...AND ACT AGAINST FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
STRONG RAIN RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
WITH THE NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH FORM ON THE TRAILING
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...IN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ONE SUCH BAND
HAD SET UP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR WAS FALLING AT 1430Z. PER
RECENT DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LARGE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES REQUIRING ABOUT 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.



...TEXAS COAST...

A SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD
FLARED UP WITH CONVECTION FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MORNING ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. GALVESTON MEASURED A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF MORE
THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE OUTFLOW
PUSHED THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...STUCK INSIDE A MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE
SMALL CIRCULATION MAY NOT PERSIST IN ITS PRESENT FORM...BUT
PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
AGAIN FAVOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

A MONSOONAL PLUME HAD BEEN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED OR INDICATED BY RADAR IN RECENT DAYS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN HOLD POTENTIAL TO BE
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PLUME OF 1.25 TO 1.65 INCH PW
VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ALSO EXTENDING
TOWARD SE UT / SW CO WHERE PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH.
THERE IS SOME WEAK CONNECTION TO HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS...BUT ALL FORECAST ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ TODAY...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
RESULTING SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY ORGANIZE
PRECIPITATION ONTO LARGER SCALES...MAKE IT MORE PERSISTENT OVER A
GIVEN LOCATION...AND ENHANCE INFLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER ALSO ARGUES FOR SOME
TRAINING. THE MODEL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN THIS REGION...BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK ON LOCAL SCALES.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 50