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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. AT THE SAME
TIME...FELT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHEN CONSIDERING WHERE THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION (LESS MCS DEBRIS) WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WPC NOTED
THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MCV
TRACK...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC QPF.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z 12KM NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 475622 476627 478634 480643 483650 487657 489660
      490665 495680 496686 495692 495699 495703 494707 494712
      492720 490739 491751 491759 491764 490768 488775 487782
      484787 481807 481812 480815 478821 477825 474830 468835
      464836 460831 459819 456810 450811 451806 452798 448793
      442793 438789 436790 436795 437807 436810 434812 428812
      421801 419806 419809 422810 427815 430832 433825 441824
      446828 449833 453847 455853 458859 461864 464866 468870
      471872 474872 479877 492883 502892 510903 512909 512913
      511918 509924 503924 498920 492917 480915 471915 466920
      462926 456931 452932 450935 444938 438939 432942 425943
      422943 420941 414933 410935 408937 403942 399946 394948
      392945 394940 395935 396930 397922 399915 404901 403883
      403866 399862 396858 395854 393852 388849 383845 378840
      378834 379831 380827 383826 389821 389815 387811 384810
      381811 375813 368818 363823 358834 355840 351843 347843
      346838 350822 351817 347816 344815 342813 343804 346796
      349789 350782 353775 356770 359765 364762 369759 372758
      374760 379764 384769 390770 395773 400778 405785 407792
      411792 413790 418784 421776 424770 427767 431760 431750
      432736 438724 438719 439714 443710 447709 451706 454699
      458699 459696 459684 458674 457667 455656 452647 450635
      451627
 0.01 528247 527244 524242 523239 524236 533227 539210 542184
      546177 547169 549163 551150 550144 548140 546133 541127
      539126 537129 531143 528151 525152 522150 494139 492135
      492131 494124 497116 501110 507096 509092 509086 508082
      506080 505077 502078 499083 496089 491094 485098 481103
      473116 469121 464124 460127 456134 447143 444145 442149
      443159 440167 437172 435177 436181 434185 430194 427199
      422207 419213 418223 421224 427227 427229 426232 423233
      416234 415240 416242 419245 423246 430248 432247 436248
      443250 450252 456257 460259 462262 464265 466267 468265
      470265 473267 478274 491298 493301 497303 503302 507298
      509294 510289 520271
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 477928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488189 486185 483178 477173 470173 460184 456189
      450195 450197 447194 443195 441198 437206 435210 432211
      428218 429220 431219 434218 446213 453212 459209 462209
      465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 381046 377045 375042 372038 368034 364038 359045
      353048 339052 333055 327055 316050 314047 311049 310057
      312064 315067 316071 318074 317079 312079 298075 289074
      281072 268064 258059 251055 247051 240039 237033 234031
      231031 227036 226044 224062 224067 226070 229076 233082
      238087 248093 254097 259101 269110 275114 278115 281114
      288117 293121 297124 304128 321130 324129 329129 332128
      335130 341133 345132 347130 348126 350120 354122 360122
      363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 359103 365099 366095
      369093 372096 376096 383093 384090 385085 385077 389079
      394080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 349747 346747 341746 336747 329752
      320758 312764 300777 294782 286786 278790 265791 256787
      248786 242787 239790 237795 237798 241801 239806 240816
      242819 244821 243823 241827 242833 254848 256852 257855
      256858 253866 251870 248873 242877 236882 231890 229895
      228901 229912 231917 231925 231938 232959 233962 233965
      233971 232978 231981 230989 231994 233999 236004 243009
      252011 258011 262010 266009 268006 276000 281995 294980
      301973 306967 310960 314952 318945 321941 325939 330935
      334932 338930 343930 350924 352919 350914 344908 336907
      333906 327906 319911 315922 313926 309928 306924 305918
      303912 303905 302892 304888 305891 305897 308901 311903
      315901 317900 317896 317893 318890 318877 317862 319851
      323843 326835 329826 331815 335805 336795 338783 339776
      342772 351765 356761 357757
 0.25 534212 534202 534190 531183 526177 522171 516164 507152
      504152 502155 497161 492164 489166 487169 494184 507191
      515204 519210 523216 527220 531220 533215 534212
 0.25 514264 516257 516249 512241 506221 501214 498210 493209
      485208 477210 471215 470228 465232 459240 458243 460245
      463246 473251 491260 500275 503278 506278 505268 505264
      507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 463895 463889 462884 457875 452869 445865 441863 437863
      432864 428866 422871 416879 413888 413901 413907 415911
      420910 422911 412924 417924 420923 429921 437921 447920
      451919 455916 460908 462902 463895
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 320783 316782 312784 306786 297790 293793
      289797 288803 293805 298804 302806 299809 295809 284808
      277807 271808 267810 266815 270818 274820 284823 290824
      291828 287837 287841 288844 292847 297847 303848 310847
      314845 317841 319837 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304944 303937 298926 293918 290913 288908 286893
      284887 281883 278879 274876 268875 263877 258887 254897
      252902 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929 257932
      257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 276972 281971
      290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 288087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231058 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288096 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 454901 454892 453881 451877 445873 439874 433877 427886
      419896 417902 419905 429901 433904 433909 431910 427914
      428917 431918 438918 443916 448912 452907 454901
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 295822 299825 302836
      305840 309841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299943 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263894 262899 260905 258913
      259921 264926 266930 265933 263943 264953 266956 269958
      277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 244065
      246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541196 541183 539171 535160 533146 532132 531127
      525125 519123 517119 514115 516109 520101 524092 525086
      526081 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080 508078
      508075 508069 509064 510057 511050 512044 514037 517025
      519018 520009 520000 518993 513986 507979 500983 497985
      494989 486003 483007 478009 469013 464013 462013 460011
      455010 451007 449003 445001 442992 440988 437984 429980
      395000 395020 379024 373030 368038 361043 353046 336040
      329043 325042 319042 316045 316048 319049 321053 322057
      324064 320068 316070 310068 303064 292064 284066 274064
      257054 249050 245049 239049 232055 226058 225063 227067
      233073 257102 264108 268111 272112 277115 284117 291122
      299126 302127 307126 309125 314125 324126 358123 371108
      374103 377099 385095 393090 400087 414075 418073 420068
      421063 424060 429054 432052 437053 439055 444053 450049
      454041 457037 461034 470036 473042 475047 476051 476055
      477063 475077 471086 469090 466093 460097 456097 452095
      448092 442090 438091 436095 432094 431097 432102 432106
      431111 434114 436119 438117 441120 440124 439132 434139
      427148 424150 420154 414160 413168 414172 420169 424168
      422172 417180 415187 414191 411205 415210 418209 421205
      422202 424203 430205 434199 439192 443183 446178 448176
      451177 454177 457175 462165 466162 472161 475159 477158
      480160 484167 483174 485178 487183 488189 489195 486200
      479205 472208 464212 461215 458216 442216 443225 448227
      453227 453231 451232 447234 440237 436240 432246 430252
      429255 431265 437273 445279 449282 456284 463282 469278
      471274 472269 476267 480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      515273 516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225
      537218 539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472893 469886 466883 463881 456878 455857
      453849 451844 449839 447836 443829 441825 441819 437811
      434809 432804 431799 432793 437787 441782 444776 448759
      450736 450725 452712 450701 444695 441693 437694 428696
      424695 419693 417691 413690 406693 403699 402707 399716
      392728 391732 392738 397744 399750 401755 407757 408760
      407762 404766 400774 397777 395773 390768 383765 378766
      374769 371767 370761 366755 360753 354750 348746 343742
      338738 332731 323719 318716 315714 310714 305716 300722
      299726 299729 297730 292735 288740 287747 286750 287755
      286764 285769 283773 277777 271780 266781 263783 260790
      259793 257794 251795 248796 246800 243809 244819 248825
      252832 257851 258859 254865 248869 244875 243880 241881
      236886 234888 232892 229896 228899 229913 229925 231935
      231944 232953 231960 231972 231983 231996 233004 238010
      245012 252012 258008 261005 264001 266991 270985 285976
      297967 301960 304953 307946 308937 308929 307925 306920
      304914 303904 305895 307892 312890 320885 321883 322878
      323874 322869 319859 317856 316851 315848 314843 316833
      318822 322816 325809 329804 331796 335789 339785 346781
      351781 355783 357797 356806 354812 352816 349824 348829
      346833 345837 346843 350848 356850 361847 367842 373838
      378838 379841 376850 376857 381863 384867 383874 384881
      386886 388888 392889 402892 408896 418905 424910 431914
      435914 437912 445910 458914 465913 469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      505134 502139 501149 502158 497172 498180 504183 508184
      511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 531190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488107 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464112 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 473143 480142 487140 489138 490131 492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449886 449882 448874 446863 444849 440842 429826
      427824 423822 419823 417828 415832 412835 403836 397832
      393832 390835 390842 392847 395849 401850 404851 408854
      411863 415873 421879 426886 431892 434895 440896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 375084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 344078 338076 334077 331081 332086 333090 332094
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 278076 272077 270079 272081 277089 288104
      294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112 335101 341094
      345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322768 321760 316751 313748 310743 307739 304742
      302745 300751 297761 293772 288779 282788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 261813 265816 270817 275818 281819
      289823 293825 300824 304822 307818 318800 321790 323778
      323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289881 288876 285874 279873 264882 257887
      251891 243896 240898 238902 237907 238914 242921 248926
      252933 253939 252946 253951 255955 259954 263950 270947
      278943 284937 287928 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420830 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 308757 305759 302764 297773 290784
      287789 285794 286802 290805 295807 298808 299811 303812
      307808 311803 314798 315792 316785 315776 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279890 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541193 540178 539171 537166 534155 533141 532130
      530126 525125 521124 518121 515118 513113 520104 523094
      524087 526082 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080
      508078 508075 508067 509061 512045 514033 517026 518020
      520014 520007 520999 519995 515988 509980 506979 503981
      498984 495987 490995 486002 484006 480009 471013 465013
      460011 456010 451007 448002 445000 440988 438984 435982
      430980 426980 417984 411991 405994 398998 394000 394005
      396017 395020 392020 390020 379024 374029 369037 365040
      362042 353046 347044 343042 338040 333042 328043 324042
      320042 316045 317048 321052 323059 324062 323065 320067
      313070 302064 296064 291064 287065 281065 274064 270062
      256054 249050 243049 239049 232055 226058 225062 227067
      229069 236075 245088 250095 255100 259104 262107 270112
      276115 282116 290121 294124 299126 302127 306126 309125
      314125 324126 330127 334125 340124 344127 349127 353124
      361121 372107 376100 382097 398088 406084 408079 411076
      418072 421067 422062 428055 432052 437053 440054 444053
      449050 452046 454041 457037 461035 463033 465035 469036
      472039 476048 477060 475071 474079 472084 468091 461097
      455097 451093 446092 438091 436095 431094 432106 432112
      435116 440122 439130 437134 431142 429147 426150 420154
      414160 413169 415172 419170 424167 425169 424171 422172
      417180 414191 412203 411207 412208 415210 419209 421204
      422202 424203 430205 433202 436197 441188 445179 450177
      452178 456176 458172 460166 463165 466162 470162 473161
      477157 483164 484175 486180 488186 489192 489197 487199
      481204 473208 465211 462214 458216 453215 448216 443217
      441218 441221 443225 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234
      439238 433245 429253 431263 432268 434270 442277 446280
      452282 456284 458282 461283 467280 470277 472271 476267
      480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225 537218
      539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472891 466883 461880 457878 455874 455864
      454855 453849 452845 451840 449838 445832 443829 441822
      441817 438813 434810 431800 432793 435790 440784 444776
      447766 448760 449754 450746 450738 450733 452714 451708
      450701 446697 440693 430696 422695 417690 412690 409692
      405695 403699 402708 399716 395723 391732 392738 394741
      397744 398749 400753 402756 408758 405765 401771 399775
      397777 396775 393771 390768 384765 380766 377767 373769
      371768 371765 368757 362753 354750 347745 341740 335735
      330728 325722 321717 315714 308715 304716 301720 299727
      297730 294732 290736 283773 276778 266781 263783 261786
      258794 249795 245801 243807 243816 251831 257851 257861
      253866 248869 244875 243880 240883 234888 230894 228898
      228904 229923 231932 231941 233951 231960 231973 231983
      231996 232001 233005 238010 246012 251012 255010 261006
      265998 265993 266990 272984 282978 289974 296968 301961
      304953 306946 308938 308928 306920 303912 303905 304901
      306892 311890 315890 320885 323877 323870 320863 317853
      314844 314838 316834 317830 317824 325809 329803 331796
      332792 335789 343783 350780 354782 356788 357799 356807
      350821 348825 348831 346835 345841 347845 350848 354850
      358850 368841 375838 379838 379841 376850 376857 378859
      383866 384879 386886 389888 394889 401890 406894 417904
      423910 426912 430913 436914 444910 452911 458914 465913
      469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527144 526140 523137 511132
      507132 505134 502139 501148 502158 497172 498180 504183
      508184 510183 515179 518179 520181 525187 530190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 504220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488106 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464113 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 469150 471145 473143 480142 487140 490138 490132
      492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449885 449881 448875 446863 444850 440842 429826
      424821 419823 417828 415832 412834 409836 403836 398832
      392832 390835 390843 392847 395849 401850 405851 408854
      411863 415872 421879 425886 431892 435895 439896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 376084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 343078 339076 334077 331081 333087 333093 330095
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 286074 282074 278076 272077 271079 272081
      277089 288104 294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112
      335101 341095 345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322767 321761 316751 313747 311743 307739 304742
      301746 300751 297761 293771 288779 283788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 260813 265816 270817 280819 289823
      294825 300824 304821 307818 318800 321791 323778 323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289880 288877 285874 279873 264882 258887
      251891 244896 240898 238902 237908 238913 240918 242921
      248926 252933 253940 252945 254951 255955 260953 263950
      270947 277943 284937 287929 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420829 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 306759 302764 297773 290784 287788
      285794 286802 290805 295807 298809 299811 303812 307808
      311803 314798 315793 316785 315777 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279891 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541193 540178 539171 537166 534155 533141 532130
      530126 525125 521124 518121 515118 513113 520104 523094
      524087 526082 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080
      508078 508075 508067 509061 512045 514033 517026 518020
      520014 520007 520999 519995 515988 509980 506979 503981
      498984 495987 490995 486002 484006 480009 471013 465013
      460011 456010 451007 448002 445000 440988 438984 435982
      430980 426980 417984 411991 405994 398998 394000 394005
      396017 395020 392020 390020 379024 374029 369037 365040
      362042 353046 347044 343042 338040 333042 328043 324042
      320042 316045 317048 321052 323059 324062 323065 320067
      313070 302064 296064 291064 287065 281065 274064 270062
      256054 249050 243049 239049 232055 226058 225062 227067
      229069 236075 245088 250095 255100 259104 262107 270112
      276115 282116 290121 294124 299126 302127 306126 309125
      314125 324126 330127 334125 340124 344127 349127 353124
      361121 372107 376100 382097 398088 406084 408079 411076
      418072 421067 422062 428055 432052 437053 440054 444053
      449050 452046 454041 457037 461035 463033 465035 469036
      472039 476048 477060 475071 474079 472084 468091 461097
      455097 451093 446092 438091 436095 431094 432106 432112
      435116 440122 439130 437134 431142 429147 426150 420154
      414160 413169 415172 419170 424167 425169 424171 422172
      417180 414191 412203 411207 412208 415210 419209 421204
      422202 424203 430205 433202 436197 441188 445179 450177
      452178 456176 458172 460166 463165 466162 470162 473161
      477157 483164 484175 486180 488186 489192 489197 487199
      481204 473208 465211 462214 458216 453215 448216 443217
      441218 441221 443225 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234
      439238 433245 429253 431263 432268 434270 442277 446280
      452282 456284 458282 461283 467280 470277 472271 476267
      480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225 537218
      539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472891 466883 461880 457878 455874 455864
      454855 453849 452845 451840 449838 445832 443829 441822
      441817 438813 434810 431800 432793 435790 440784 444776
      447766 448760 449754 450746 450738 450733 452714 451708
      450701 446697 440693 430696 422695 417690 412690 409692
      405695 403699 402708 399716 395723 391732 392738 394741
      397744 398749 400753 402756 408758 405765 401771 399775
      397777 396775 393771 390768 384765 380766 377767 373769
      371768 371765 368757 362753 354750 347745 341740 335735
      330728 325722 321717 315714 308715 304716 301720 299727
      297730 294732 290736 283773 276778 266781 263783 261786
      258794 249795 245801 243807 243816 251831 257851 257861
      253866 248869 244875 243880 240883 234888 230894 228898
      228904 229923 231932 231941 233951 231960 231973 231983
      231996 232001 233005 238010 246012 251012 255010 261006
      265998 265993 266990 272984 282978 289974 296968 301961
      304953 306946 308938 308928 306920 303912 303905 304901
      306892 311890 315890 320885 323877 323870 320863 317853
      314844 314838 316834 317830 317824 325809 329803 331796
      332792 335789 343783 350780 354782 356788 357799 356807
      350821 348825 348831 346835 345841 347845 350848 354850
      358850 368841 375838 379838 379841 376850 376857 378859
      383866 384879 386886 389888 394889 401890 406894 417904
      423910 426912 430913 436914 444910 452911 458914 465913
      469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527144 526140 523137 511132
      507132 505134 502139 501148 502158 497172 498180 504183
      508184 510183 515179 518179 520181 525187 530190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 504220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488106 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464113 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 469150 471145 473143 480142 487140 490138 490132
      492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449885 449881 448875 446863 444850 440842 429826
      424821 419823 417828 415832 412834 409836 403836 398832
      392832 390835 390843 392847 395849 401850 405851 408854
      411863 415872 421879 425886 431892 435895 439896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 376084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 343078 339076 334077 331081 333087 333093 330095
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 286074 282074 278076 272077 271079 272081
      277089 288104 294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112
      335101 341095 345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322767 321761 316751 313747 311743 307739 304742
      301746 300751 297761 293771 288779 283788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 260813 265816 270817 280819 289823
      294825 300824 304821 307818 318800 321791 323778 323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289880 288877 285874 279873 264882 258887
      251891 244896 240898 238902 237908 238913 240918 242921
      248926 252933 253940 252945 254951 255955 260953 263950
      270947 277943 284937 287929 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420829 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 306759 302764 297773 290784 287788
      285794 286802 290805 295807 298809 299811 303812 307808
      311803 314798 315793 316785 315777 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279891 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH SO THE QPF UPDATE FOLLOWED
THESE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS UPDATE FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE
00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541193 540178 539171 537166 534155 533141 532130
      530126 525125 521124 518121 515118 513113 520104 523094
      524087 526082 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080
      508078 508075 508067 509061 512045 514033 517026 518020
      520014 520007 520999 519995 515988 509980 506979 503981
      498984 495987 490995 486002 484006 480009 471013 465013
      460011 456010 451007 448002 445000 440988 438984 435982
      430980 426980 417984 411991 405994 398998 394000 394005
      396017 395020 392020 390020 379024 374029 369037 365040
      362042 353046 347044 343042 338040 333042 328043 324042
      320042 316045 317048 321052 323059 324062 323065 320067
      313070 302064 296064 291064 287065 281065 274064 270062
      256054 249050 243049 239049 232055 226058 225062 227067
      229069 236075 245088 250095 255100 259104 262107 270112
      276115 282116 290121 294124 299126 302127 306126 309125
      314125 324126 330127 334125 340124 344127 349127 353124
      361121 372107 376100 382097 398088 406084 408079 411076
      418072 421067 422062 428055 432052 437053 440054 444053
      449050 452046 454041 457037 461035 463033 465035 469036
      472039 476048 477060 475071 474079 472084 468091 461097
      455097 451093 446092 438091 436095 431094 432106 432112
      435116 440122 439130 437134 431142 429147 426150 420154
      414160 413169 415172 419170 424167 425169 424171 422172
      417180 414191 412203 411207 412208 415210 419209 421204
      422202 424203 430205 433202 436197 441188 445179 450177
      452178 456176 458172 460166 463165 466162 470162 473161
      477157 483164 484175 486180 488186 489192 489197 487199
      481204 473208 465211 462214 458216 453215 448216 443217
      441218 441221 443225 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234
      439238 433245 429253 431263 432268 434270 442277 446280
      452282 456284 458282 461283 467280 470277 472271 476267
      480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225 537218
      539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472891 466883 461880 457878 455874 455864
      454855 453849 452845 451840 449838 445832 443829 441822
      441817 438813 434810 431800 432793 435790 440784 444776
      447766 448760 449754 450746 450738 450733 452714 451708
      450701 446697 440693 430696 422695 417690 412690 409692
      405695 403699 402708 399716 395723 391732 392738 394741
      397744 398749 400753 402756 408758 405765 401771 399775
      397777 396775 393771 390768 384765 380766 377767 373769
      371768 371765 368757 362753 354750 347745 341740 335735
      330728 325722 321717 315714 308715 304716 301720 299727
      297730 294732 290736 283773 276778 266781 263783 261786
      258794 249795 245801 243807 243816 251831 257851 257861
      253866 248869 244875 243880 240883 234888 230894 228898
      228904 229923 231932 231941 233951 231960 231973 231983
      231996 232001 233005 238010 246012 251012 255010 261006
      265998 265993 266990 272984 282978 289974 296968 301961
      304953 306946 308938 308928 306920 303912 303905 304901
      306892 311890 315890 320885 323877 323870 320863 317853
      314844 314838 316834 317830 317824 325809 329803 331796
      332792 335789 343783 350780 354782 356788 357799 356807
      350821 348825 348831 346835 345841 347845 350848 354850
      358850 368841 375838 379838 379841 376850 376857 378859
      383866 384879 386886 389888 394889 401890 406894 417904
      423910 426912 430913 436914 444910 452911 458914 465913
      469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527144 526140 523137 511132
      507132 505134 502139 501148 502158 497172 498180 504183
      508184 510183 515179 518179 520181 525187 530190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 504220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488106 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464113 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 469150 471145 473143 480142 487140 490138 490132
      492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449885 449881 448875 446863 444850 440842 429826
      424821 419823 417828 415832 412834 409836 403836 398832
      392832 390835 390843 392847 395849 401850 405851 408854
      411863 415872 421879 425886 431892 435895 439896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 376084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 343078 339076 334077 331081 333087 333093 330095
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 286074 282074 278076 272077 271079 272081
      277089 288104 294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112
      335101 341095 345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322767 321761 316751 313747 311743 307739 304742
      301746 300751 297761 293771 288779 283788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 260813 265816 270817 280819 289823
      294825 300824 304821 307818 318800 321791 323778 323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289880 288877 285874 279873 264882 258887
      251891 244896 240898 238902 237908 238913 240918 242921
      248926 252933 253940 252945 254951 255955 260953 263950
      270947 277943 284937 287929 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420829 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 306759 302764 297773 290784 287788
      285794 286802 290805 295807 298809 299811 303812 307808
      311803 314798 315793 316785 315777 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279891 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SHEAR IN TIME
DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MUCH OF THE EARLY DAY 2
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1 UNFOLDS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
OVERLAP. THE FORECAST IS RATHER NEBULOUS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE POSITION OF
A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IS CRUCIAL TO
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THERE WAS AN
INITIAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FAVORING
SOMETHING MORE SHEARED WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF HAD
MAINTAINED A CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE QPF WAS NOTED WHICH HELPED BUILD CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. SLOW CELL MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE THREAT AREA...BUT CHOOSING ANY ONE
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE QPF WAS DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS. LIKEWISE...ITS SOLUTION FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARED ADEQUATE. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. TENDED TO DOWNPLAY
SOLUTIONS WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH A MYRIAD OF
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CA WILL HELP SPAWN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
00Z GFS TRENDED EAST MOVING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. WHILE
THE 00Z GFS FAVORED MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...THESE BULLSEYES ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHICH MAY POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTION COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EACH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
THE FORECAST WAS DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
WHICH HANDLED THE RESOLUTION OF THE TERRAIN MORE READILY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...A PERSISTENT DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY ADVANCE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 850-MB FLOW ENDS UP NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF HANDLED THE
REGION COMPARABLY DURING THE PERIOD SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS
UTILIZED.

FARTHER EAST...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIFT ALONG A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN ND WHERE A PREPONDERANCE
OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS WITH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS. THE FFG VALUES
WERE ON THE LOWER END SO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS
PLACED OVER THE REGION ON DAY 3.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DURING THE START OF DAY 2/THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LEFT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE EXITING
THE GA/SC COAST. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AT THAT POINT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DRAG EASTWARD IN TIME. MOISTURE RETURN IS
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS RISE INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY SURFACE INSOLATION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.
TENDED TO FAVOR A BALANCE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH BOTH
MAINTAINED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. THIS IDEA WAS SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.



HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541193 540178 539171 537166 534155 533141 532130
      530126 525125 521124 518121 515118 513113 520104 523094
      524087 526082 526076 525070 522067 518067 513074 510080
      508078 508075 508067 509061 512045 514033 517026 518020
      520014 520007 520999 519995 515988 509980 506979 503981
      498984 495987 490995 486002 484006 480009 471013 465013
      460011 456010 451007 448002 445000 440988 438984 435982
      430980 426980 417984 411991 405994 398998 394000 394005
      396017 395020 392020 390020 379024 374029 369037 365040
      362042 353046 347044 343042 338040 333042 328043 324042
      320042 316045 317048 321052 323059 324062 323065 320067
      313070 302064 296064 291064 287065 281065 274064 270062
      256054 249050 243049 239049 232055 226058 225062 227067
      229069 236075 245088 250095 255100 259104 262107 270112
      276115 282116 290121 294124 299126 302127 306126 309125
      314125 324126 330127 334125 340124 344127 349127 353124
      361121 372107 376100 382097 398088 406084 408079 411076
      418072 421067 422062 428055 432052 437053 440054 444053
      449050 452046 454041 457037 461035 463033 465035 469036
      472039 476048 477060 475071 474079 472084 468091 461097
      455097 451093 446092 438091 436095 431094 432106 432112
      435116 440122 439130 437134 431142 429147 426150 420154
      414160 413169 415172 419170 424167 425169 424171 422172
      417180 414191 412203 411207 412208 415210 419209 421204
      422202 424203 430205 433202 436197 441188 445179 450177
      452178 456176 458172 460166 463165 466162 470162 473161
      477157 483164 484175 486180 488186 489192 489197 487199
      481204 473208 465211 462214 458216 453215 448216 443217
      441218 441221 443225 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234
      439238 433245 429253 431263 432268 434270 442277 446280
      452282 456284 458282 461283 467280 470277 472271 476267
      480267 482266 484268 487272 491280
 0.01 491280 495286 497289 501291 504291 507288 511282 515277
      516270 522264 525254 527244 528231 530226 533225 537218
      539210
 0.01 509084 509081 508078 507081 507083 508086 509084
 0.01 473902 473897 472891 466883 461880 457878 455874 455864
      454855 453849 452845 451840 449838 445832 443829 441822
      441817 438813 434810 431800 432793 435790 440784 444776
      447766 448760 449754 450746 450738 450733 452714 451708
      450701 446697 440693 430696 422695 417690 412690 409692
      405695 403699 402708 399716 395723 391732 392738 394741
      397744 398749 400753 402756 408758 405765 401771 399775
      397777 396775 393771 390768 384765 380766 377767 373769
      371768 371765 368757 362753 354750 347745 341740 335735
      330728 325722 321717 315714 308715 304716 301720 299727
      297730 294732 290736 283773 276778 266781 263783 261786
      258794 249795 245801 243807 243816 251831 257851 257861
      253866 248869 244875 243880 240883 234888 230894 228898
      228904 229923 231932 231941 233951 231960 231973 231983
      231996 232001 233005 238010 246012 251012 255010 261006
      265998 265993 266990 272984 282978 289974 296968 301961
      304953 306946 308938 308928 306920 303912 303905 304901
      306892 311890 315890 320885 323877 323870 320863 317853
      314844 314838 316834 317830 317824 325809 329803 331796
      332792 335789 343783 350780 354782 356788 357799 356807
      350821 348825 348831 346835 345841 347845 350848 354850
      358850 368841 375838 379838 379841 376850 376857 378859
      383866 384879 386886 389888 394889 401890 406894 417904
      423910 426912 430913 436914 444910 452911 458914 465913
      469910 473902
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527144 526140 523137 511132
      507132 505134 502139 501148 502158 497172 498180 504183
      508184 510183 515179 518179 520181 525187 530190 534187
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 504220 502217 499214 497211 495210 491212
      488210 485214 485217 488221 492226 495231 499236 505234
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 496112 497106 496102 495099 493102 488106 485108 481109
      474109 467111 464113 462116 458123 454129 450136 453144
      455147 456152 454156 451157 451161 452161 456160 459158
      465156 469150 471145 473143 480142 487140 490138 490132
      492122 496112
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 436707 434710 432713 430715 429717
      428721 430723 432725 435725 437724 439721 440719 441715
      442711 442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      433747 433748 433749 433752 433754 433756 435757 437757
      439755 440753 440751 440750
 0.25 448889 449885 449881 448875 446863 444850 440842 429826
      424821 419823 417828 415832 412834 409836 403836 398832
      392832 390835 390843 392847 395849 401850 405851 408854
      411863 415872 421879 425886 431892 435895 439896 444895
      447892 448889
 0.25 420017 418017 416017 416018 418018 420018 420017
 0.25 411061 409056 404054 393051 384056 378064 372063 369063
      368066 369073 371077 373083 376084 379084 382081 385079
      388081 391082 395078 400069 409064 411061
 0.25 389785 387784 383784 380787 378788 377790 374792 373794
      373799 374799 377796 379795 380793 384791 385789 388788
      389785
 0.25 358825 359823 358822 356823 355824 356826 358826 358825
 0.25 345083 343078 339076 334077 331081 333087 333093 330095
      328095 324092 320089 316088 312086 310081 307076 304074
      300072 295071 286074 282074 278076 272077 271079 272081
      277089 288104 294110 297113 302115 312114 316114 320112
      335101 341095 345084 345083
 0.25 323775 322767 321761 316751 313747 311743 307739 304742
      301746 300751 297761 293771 288779 283788 278796 278803
      274803 263806 260809 260813 265816 270817 280819 289823
      294825 300824 304821 307818 318800 321791 323778 323775
 0.25 290912 290887 289880 288877 285874 279873 264882 258887
      251891 244896 240898 238902 237908 238913 240918 242921
      248926 252933 253940 252945 254951 255955 260953 263950
      270947 277943 284937 287929 288918 290912
 0.25 269075 266068 262063 255060 248057 242056 235059 234062
      235065 240070 244071 249072 258073 265075 269075
 0.25 243998 242996 240995 238993 237995 238997 238998 240998
      242998 243998
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507147 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 528180 532178
 0.50 483128 483125 480122 478121 477122 473122 472124 470128
      470133 472136 476135 478134 481133 483130 483128
 0.50 441878 439868 439856 437851 436849 431843 428836 423829
      420829 420834 420846 422851 424853 428854 430857 432866
      434876 436880 440878 441878
 0.50 403060 402058 400057 398057 397057 397058 395059 394059
      393062 393064 394064 395064 396063 398062 400060 402060
      403060
 0.50 378078 378076 378074 378072 378071 376070 376069 375068
      374069 374071 374073 374075 374078 376079 377079 378078
 0.50 315770 313764 310758 306759 302764 297773 290784 287788
      285794 286802 290805 295807 298809 299811 303812 307808
      311803 314798 315793 316785 315777 315770
 0.50 302086 302084 301082 299081 297081 297082 297084 299086
      301087 302086
 0.50 281910 282903 281896 279891 275888 265889 257895 249900
      245903 244907 245912 249915 258919 262922 266924 272923
      275920 281910 281910
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 304787 304785 303783 303782 302783 301783 300785 299787
      298789 298790 298792 299792 300792 302792 302791 303789
      304788 304787

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 553960 553952 553942 552936 551927 549913 547906 544901
      537895 530890 522892 515890 508889 501891 496893 493896
      488901 483909 479915 472922 465929 449940 432953 423956
      416964 405975 398983 394990 383001 377009 372016 363027
      355033 346037 341039 337043 329050 321054 319059 315062
      313066 309066 304066 301064 268061 236046 231048 227052
      225063 225070 226074 231079 235082 245086 251092 256098
      262103 274112 283114 291117 300120 305122 310123 316123
      320122 324121 327121 330122 333125 336126 339124 341120
      342115 344107 348102 353100 359101 363103 368104 378101
      385097 390092 400081 406075 410073 415073 414071 412068
      414067 416063 416058 418049 419043 417040 413036 416031
      420022 426012 428010 432011 435014 439019 442023 447030
      450032 456033 459035 458039 457043 456049 454053 454060
      455065 453068 451068 445065 442070 447078 451083 451086
      448090 445089 440088 438095 437100 440101 442103 443106
      440108 436112 441120 442123 441127 440132 435145 435149
      437155 441161 442171 440176 436174 432168 429168 426171
      423172 422178 419183 416186 414191 412197 410203 407206
      404209 401215 400221 404224 415224 416226 417230 414236
      415242 417245 420249 424252 427254 427257 428262 429265
      434266 440265 446262 452257 456249 459247 464245 472245
      478246 479240 476232 472232 468232 465229 466226 468225
      471222 477221 483222 487222 494225 496228 500230 502227
      504219 500210 497207 492206 483204 478207 470208 463210
      459210 455208 457197 462186 462176 460169 461164 463160
      465160 467162 471165 480164 489170 493169 497170 503179
      507188 514194 516198 520200 523199 526196 529192 531192
      534182 533153 531130 527120 526115 525110
 0.01 525110 524104 524097 525091 526084 530074 533061 535056
      536051 536037 535029 535021 536013 537008 542000 545996
      547990 549979 552968 553960
 0.01 469878 441863 440858 439852 440838 439833 438829 435827
      420825 411819 404817 399815 396807 401802 405794 408785
      413777 416774 418770 419766 418759 416755 414754 408751
      405744 403736 402726 400715 398708 397705 395703 387700
      384704 383708 383713 386727 384736 382741 381746 381751
      383756 384759 382761 380763 376767 372769 367770 360767
      359764 363763 367762 369759 370756 370752 368745 364740
      360738 355738 349738 344740 334753 330760 327761 325759
      324752 323747 321743 320739 318736 312732 307730 301729
      294730 287733 282737 274747 272754 270762 270773 269782
      253791 251796 247801 245805 244810 243813 243818 245824
      247827 250830 258837 262843 265849 265854 264859 262868
      262872 261877 259885 257889 258895 255900 253903 249911
      249920 248929 246935 244940 240945 236950 232955 231962
      232970 234972 235977 233987 232991 232998 232001 235005
      240012 246017 252020 257019 267019 271018 274020 278019
      283015 284012 283008 279004 257989 257986 261984 265982
      270982 279981 283979 286976 294963 300951 303944 303935
      302930 303923 303912 303908 304905 306897 309888 312880
      314875 316874 319871 323869 329868 333869 339869 342871
      350871 357870 361864 364859 366851 371838 375834 378832
      380830 381832 379850 380864 383871 387880 392888 399901
      404907 409910 415915 423915 431914 436912 441909 446905
      451901 455896 457893 461891 467890 468888 468883 469878
 0.25 547952 547936 546930 543926 539920 534912 532909 528907
      520908 515908 509911 504918 498926 492932 487936 475940
      467942 461945 446956 444959 442964 442967 444971 450975
      456977 465986 469990 469997 470010 471015 473018 478025
      482032 484042 476053 474057 471060 466068 464072 464079
      468088 469096 469103 467107 464112 459118 453125 451129
      450135 452142 455145 460146 466146 473142 476140 480140
      487143 494148 500155 513164 517166 521165 526163 527157
      527152 525143 520134 514127 511124 511117 513107 515097
      515086 514076 514069 512067 504063 497057 491051 487045
      486041 488039 494037 504026 517012 526999 534989 538982
      542974 546963 547952
 0.25 446206 448197 447189 444187 441188 435189 432193 429197
      427202 427206 428212 431218 436218 441215 445208 446206
 0.25 426980 426975 423975 417979 414985 409991 404996 400002
      400008 402010 406010 409007 413003 418996 421989 425982
      426980
 0.25 419870 420860 418852 415848 409847 407849 406852 406859
      406868 405875 405880 406884 408885 411885 416882 418877
      419870
 0.25 391776 378783 368788 362792 358796 356800 352802 347802
      337804 334807 335811 337817 338822 341832 343838 345842
      348843 352842 358834 362827 364822 367819 373814 379812
      382809 387804 388801 389798 387794 386792 388788 391781
      391776
 0.25 388072 387068 384066 378064 368059 361061 361056 362054
      359052 356055 355063 352068 349071 344072 331076 329077
      328079 327087 324089 319088 315091 313097 309100 303103
      303107 304113 309116 313117 317116 321113 329107 330103
      332100 337099 342097 345092 349087 355085 361076 368076
      372080 375084 379084 381082 385075 388072
 0.25 330807 324801 317798 313795 310792 308788 310784 310779
      309774 307765 307760 306754 303751 299751 297755 294756
      291756 285757 281759 278762 276771 276777 276783 278788
      280792 283794 289795 297794 301794 303796 304802 306807
      309817 311820 315819 328809 330807
 0.25 308829 308824 306822 301820 295817 290816 288819 288823
      289827 285828 280832 281836 284842 286848 290860 294872
      299870 301865 302857 304852 305844 305841 308829
 0.25 303087 303080 302076 300072 297069 289069 280071 272074
      267081 265082 265085 266089 272094 279101 283101 287100
      294097 300092 303087
 0.25 284902 285896 284892 276892 272894 270900 268908 266915
      263928 257939 253945 252949 253954 257958 265959 270959
      275956 279950 281945 283937 282931 281921 283914 284902
 0.25 276813 275807 272804 268803 265802 259802 255804 253808
      256812 260813 264813 268814 273815 276813
 0.25 256077 254073 251067 248062 245058 241055 235053 232057
      230063 231069 233071 236073 241076 246077 254079 256077
 0.25 255006 254004 253001 251000 248998 246997 242998 241000
      242003 244005 245006 249008 251008 253008 255006
 0.50 543960 544954 544947 542938 539932 536928 531921 528917
      522915 515917 501938 496942 490945 479948 472950 467952
      463956 460962 460967 462969 469971 474974 477978 479987
      480997 480004 482012 486017 493020 499019 504016 513008
      521999 528989 535979 540968 543960
 0.50 513150 513147 511143 509141 507139 504138 501137 499135
      496133 496136 497138 499141 500144 503147 504148 508149
      511151 513150
 0.50 500105 501100 501095 498090 493079 487068 485065 482064
      477066 471076 470079 470082 474086 482095 484101 482107
      480115 479120 480122 482121 488119 492117 499108 500105
 0.50 478127 478126 476126 476127 478128 478127
 0.50 379078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376067 376066 375066
      373065 371065 369066 370068 371070 372073 373073 374075
      374076 375078 376079 377080 379079 379078
 0.50 374794 373793 373792 371792 370793 370794 370795 369797
      370798 371797 372795 373795 374794
 0.50 363818 363815 361815 357815 352815 350818 348822 346827
      345831 347835 351837 353835 355832 358828 360825 362821
      363818
 0.50 348081 347079 345080 345081 345082 347082 348081
 0.50 340096 341093 340092 340091 340089 339088 337088 336088
      335089 335090 334093 334095 335095 336096 338097 340096
      340096
 0.50 302774 302770 299765 295763 292762 286763 283765 281769
      281775 282781 285783 290784 294785 298783 301779 302774
      302774
 0.50 296088 295086 293085 292084 290085 288085 286085 284086
      283086 282088 283091 284091 285093 287093 289093 291092
      292092 293091 294090 295089 296088
 1.00 537957 536949 534946 530939 526931 524928 520926 516929
      514933 510939 505947 499952 493957 489963 488970 489977
      489987 489997 490002 493005 500005 507001 518991 523985
      528978 532971 535963 537957
 1.50 525960 524947 523941 520937 517940 515944 510953 504959
      498965 496970 496972 499977 504977 513976 522973 524970
      525962 525960

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020844
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...PWS OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KTS
ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MCS STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EARLY AM
HOURS...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR OVER
ISOLATED AREAS PER THE RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG VALUES.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
DECAY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE) REMAIN RATHER ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
IN THE DAY WITH PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV
TRACK...THOUGH BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ARE TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON (I.E. LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)... FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THIS IDEA AT THIS POINT IS
THE 00Z SPCWRF (WHILE KEEPING IN MIND ITS HIGH BIAS).

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020844
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...PWS OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KTS
ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MCS STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EARLY AM
HOURS...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR OVER
ISOLATED AREAS PER THE RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG VALUES.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
DECAY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE) REMAIN RATHER ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
IN THE DAY WITH PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV
TRACK...THOUGH BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ARE TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON (I.E. LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)... FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THIS IDEA AT THIS POINT IS
THE 00Z SPCWRF (WHILE KEEPING IN MIND ITS HIGH BIAS).

HURLEY

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020844
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...PWS OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KTS
ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MCS STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EARLY AM
HOURS...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR OVER
ISOLATED AREAS PER THE RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG VALUES.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
DECAY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE) REMAIN RATHER ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
IN THE DAY WITH PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV
TRACK...THOUGH BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ARE TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON (I.E. LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)... FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THIS IDEA AT THIS POINT IS
THE 00Z SPCWRF (WHILE KEEPING IN MIND ITS HIGH BIAS).

HURLEY

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020844
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...PWS OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KTS
ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MCS STRUCTURE THROUGH THE EARLY AM
HOURS...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR OVER
ISOLATED AREAS PER THE RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG VALUES.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
DECAY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE) REMAIN RATHER ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER
IN THE DAY WITH PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV
TRACK...THOUGH BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ARE TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON (I.E. LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)... FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THIS IDEA AT THIS POINT IS
THE 00Z SPCWRF (WHILE KEEPING IN MIND ITS HIGH BIAS).

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020829
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF
1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE
THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...WITH THE
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN SOME OF THE
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE EARLY THIS AM...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE DECAY OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE) REMAINS ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY WITH
PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV TRACK...THOUGH FEEL THE
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION (LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL.

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020829
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW CONTINUED COMPACT MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OUT AHEAD OF A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD
AND NORTHERN NE. THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER
DIVERGENCE) IS INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF
1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE
THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB). THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS...WITH THE
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN SOME OF THE
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE EARLY THIS AM...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG.

DO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE DECAY OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER...THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE) REMAINS ROBUST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY WITH
PEAK HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MCV TRACK...THOUGH FEEL THE
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER QPF. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED AREA OF BEST DESTABILIZATION (LESS
MCS DEBRIS TO OVERCOME)...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CEN/SRN WI INTO NORTHERN IL.

HURLEY

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020349
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 0348Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW EARLY STAGES OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...OUT AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN NE. THE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE) IS
INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB).
THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY (AND
UPDRAFTS) CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2-2.5
INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE DCAPE...EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RE-GENERATION OF CONVECTION (AND INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING) AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
GIVEN SOME OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION OR FFGMPD #475.

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020349
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 0348Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW EARLY STAGES OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...OUT AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN NE. THE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE) IS
INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB).
THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY (AND
UPDRAFTS) CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2-2.5
INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE DCAPE...EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RE-GENERATION OF CONVECTION (AND INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING) AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
GIVEN SOME OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION OR FFGMPD #475.

HURLEY

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020349
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 0348Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW EARLY STAGES OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...OUT AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN NE. THE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE) IS
INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB).
THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY (AND
UPDRAFTS) CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2-2.5
INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE DCAPE...EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RE-GENERATION OF CONVECTION (AND INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING) AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
GIVEN SOME OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION OR FFGMPD #475.

HURLEY

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020038
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
837 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 01Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN FLORIDA / SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

LATEST SATL/RADAR IMAGERY AT 23Z SHOWED WEAK CIRC ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE EXTREME NE GULF JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER
NRN FL NEAR CROSS CITY FL.  PCPN PATRN THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST LIGHT SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR SOME STRONGER BANDS
ROTATING TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION.  CONVECTION AS
OF 00Z WAS STILL RATHER SHALLOW WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING
DETECTED.  STILL...SYSTEM IS EMBEDD WITHIN PLUME OF VERY HIGH MSTR
WITH PWS BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES AND THERE IS THE PSBLITY OF
NOCTURNAL FLAREUP OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRC AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACRS NRN FL/ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION OVERNIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME LATEST HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTNL...INDICATING MAX AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE 12Z HI RES MODEL RUNS.
THUS FEEL ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WOULD BE RATHER ISOLD.

SULLIVAN
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 012124
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM OUTLOOK BASED MAINLY ON
SATL/RADAR TRENDS. SULLIVAN

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 475622 477628 479637 484651 490664 495680 495698
      494712 491728 491736 491742 491746 490766 487780 484786
      483794 481812 480816 481820 481831 479849 476862 474869
      473873 474877 483888 484895 484904 476916 469925 465928
      462936 459940 455943 456949 455954 454957 452964 447972
      438983 429990 425992 422994 419995 417996 414996 412990
      412981 414975 416968 418964 418960 413962 408964 403967
      400970 393974 387977 385974 388968 391961 394957 396949
      400945 402939 406934 414924 422917 424914 423909 423900
      423888 422877 421871 420867 417868 413871 409873 402872
      398867 393862 389859 384857 381857 381854 382838 383830
      381823 378819 374821 369824 362825 358822 360815 359806
      361800 366795 367788 368779 371775 374772 381770 387769
      397775 408783 414793 419796 420798 420803 419809 415815
      415820 416825 420827 426831 431833 440839 448848 456858
      458860 460859 463852 467839 463835 460832 460828 459819
      457812 454810 452811 450810 451807 452799 449793 447788
      446780 445775 446771 449764 452758 453750 454736 454725
      455717 458704 460695 459685 458669 454653 452647 450639
      451627
 0.01 548167 550160 550152 551147 549142 547135 542130 540129
      538132 534137 530143 524147 522149 518149 513147 505143
      497142 494141 492137 486133 481130 479135 480137 480142
      475144 468146 464146 463150 462161 457165 452168 449175
      447179 445185 444191 446194 449192 450189 452187 458185
      462181 467176 472173 476172 480175 484180 485185 488188
      488193 486197 480200 475202 464208 451212 439215 429220
      425220 422221 421224 425225 427226 427230 424233 418234
      416235 415240 419245 427248 428251 431254 432256 436255
      439251 443250 448251 454251 461252 465253 467255 477265
      487275 499286 507288 509288 512285 515280 517278 519272
      520265 521253 520248 521241 525235 530231 534226 537218
      539207 541195 542184 546175 548167
 0.01 504972 504959 504952 503949 493939 489932 484927 479924
      476930 475936 473940 472949 471954 470960 470972 470978
      469982 469991 470996 472994 474993 477997 482997 485993
      486990 488979 494980 497980 500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 385054 388050 392050 394048 392045 389038 385038
      383040 380038 378036 381030 385029 387028 390025 390020
      391009 392999 392990 387990 382997 378004 375010 372018
      366032 363040 359045 332055 327055 326058 324061 325065
      326072 325078 321081 316081 310079 305078 302076 296077
      280074 272072 266068 255060 243053 237051 233055 232060
      233063 238069 247079 252084 259087 268095 277105 280109
      283111 289113 295118 299123 301125 305127 310127 314126
      321125 325122 332119 337114 342109 345103 348095 350092
      352090 354091 356093 360094 359089 356085 358081 361074
      366068 368067 370070 375083 379083 381080 384078 386077
      388079 396080 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340903 335901 327902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343780 341777 334773 329772 330771 329757 328750
      326746 322736 318730 313732 311736 309746 310753 309757
      309768 308778 307784 305788 298793 291796 288796 287794
      287791 265793 253794 244797 240799 238802 236811 241829
      247835 251836 256837 265837 269838 273840 286850 293856
      300858 308854 314847 319841 322832 329815 336798 341792
      344788
 0.01 312949 313943 311940 306935 303930 301920 294904 289897
      285893 282889 279889 274889 271891 267896 264903 260921
      260926 262929 266933 270936 272939 275947 275952 274956
      272960 270962 266965 263966 259967 254968 239971 233975
      231983 232990 232995 234999 236003 239005 241008 245009
      252011 257011 260010 264009 267006 270999 273993 279989
      285983 290978 299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      491165 489169 490173 494182 495185 499187 507190 512194
      516201 520208 523216 528220 530220 532217 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 471215 471218 473220 479222 485224 489228 491234
      492238 489238 484238 476230 471232 466233 464233 462235
      460238 461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 503281
      506280 509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 457219 456218 452217 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457898 456896 455897 454896 453896 455898 454901 455902
      456901 456900 457898
 0.25 455918 456915 455913 455910 455908 454906 453905 452906
      451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916 447917
      447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919 455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443926 443925
      442925 440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935
      442935 443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428969 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 405848 404845 403843 402841 402840 401839 400837 399837
      398836 396836 395837 395838 393840 393842 393843 394844
      395846 397848 397849 399850 401850 402850 404849 405848
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 390797 393795 396791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 322747 320744 318743 316751 315766 313781
      310787 308795 306800 302806 297809 291809 275810 266812
      262812 260813 264817 270819 283823 287825 280826 277829
      278833 282838 290845 296849 300849 302848 307845 311839
      315825 318819 318810 325782 325764
 0.25 299943 298926 295920 292914 287910 281909 276913 273916
      273919 277924 281929 285941 284949 281956 279961 277969
      278971 280973 284973 286971 292960 296954 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213
 0.50 513255 513248 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511260 513255
 0.50 518185 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167 495169
      495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501269 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 481239
      479236 474234 472239 475244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317793 318791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303821 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298821 299823 298826 292827 286829 287835
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540176 539171 537166 534157 529137 521131
      517129 511128 504131 499133 493131 493127 496124 498120
      501118 504115 508113 511112 515110 520102 524091 524082
      523077 522072 520070 517069 512074 506079 483100 479099
      476099 466101 461101 458105 456109 453110 450112 449115
      449122 447129 441134 438138 438141 437167 437170 434171
      431168 422166 417173 415177 414182 412198 411206 411209
      413210 418212 418219 418223 423221 434210 439202 444194
      451190 459183 470166 473164 476160 479159 481163 483166
      482171 483175 485178 487183 488190 489192 488196 485201
      478204 473206 470209 463213 456215 440216 437219 436223
      441226 444226 450228 450232 448233 443234 439238 443254
      447261 455258 459259 462262 465266 470264 476271 482281
      486290 490297 493301 499303 503302 506300 510290 510285
      512281 515276 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 512913 511907 508900 504893 500890 496886 489881 482877
      479875 478869 467855 461851 457843 455831 450823 445820
      443816 438808 436802 436793 438790 440791 444793 452789
      455786 458782 461778 464771 465758 466747 468737 472728
      474725 475718 476709 476702 476694 475678 473664 471658
      469653 465650 461651 459656 458661 459674 460683 460689
      459696 457699 453703 451707 448707 447704 443699 438695
      429696 423702 420706 418711 416722 414731 413752 411763
      405773 402778 399781 394783 390782 385781 382781 381777
      377769 374767 370769 363771 358774 351778 349780 347778
      350774 352772 355768 356764 355758 354751 352749 343746
      339744 335741 334734 332728 327720 321714 313711 310710
      305711 301714 298718 297722 298728 299742 299757 294762
      290769 287777 282785 276788 272790 267790 259788 250786
      243786 239789 237793 239798 243803 244808 244817 244821
      243823 241827 242833 244837 250843 254848 256853 250859
      245865 237879 233886 229894 228899 228906 229919 231943
      232955 233965 232979 231983 230989 231995 234001 236003
      241007 244008 249008 258006 264003 266000 269995 270987
      273985 276985 281985 288981 294977 301969 307961 310952
      311939 310912 310896 310892 313891 317889 322881 323871
      323859 320850 317843 313834 314830 317826 321822 324818
      332800 333795 335791 340784 341782 344782 344788 344794
      346798 349802 352806 356808 361805 364806 363810 362814
      359817 356821 352824 351828 348832 348837 350842 352844
      357844 361843 364839 367835 371832 374833 378834 379837
      379841 380843 383846 389851 399851 402850 404854 405859
      408870 409885 410892 407897 406902 407906 410910 413912
      413925 412930 409934 400949 395956 391963 387972 385977
      386984 389990 392993 399998 406996 412989
 0.01 412989 416983 419978 423971 426966 433952 437947 442942
      446938 450935 455930 459925 463919 469917 473915 476915
      484915 495919 501923 503924 507924 510919 512913
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421205 422206 423205
 0.01 426027 426022 425018 419009 413008 408010 406012 397011
      393013 388013 381017 375021 369028 364035 358042 356039
      355035 353026 347030 339034 335036 335040 332045 328046
      321046 317047 313047 311050 310060 312064 314066 316069
      312068 309066 304065 296067 288070 283071 280071 273067
      268064 255055 248051 244048 242044 239036 236032 232031
      227035 226045 224065 227074 232081 257100 269110 276115
      284116 290121 298126 314131 319131 322132 330136 346143
      351144 355143 364140 370137 374135 375132 381128 389125
      397122 403118 398113 392111 388109 373111 369108 368102
      373097 381097 388093 410068 416064 416059 414057 409048
      408045 410043 412040 417038 422035 426027
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523175 524167 520152 519147 516145
      511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198 517203
      520210 525211 528204 531194
 0.25 496289 498286 498284 498281 496279 495279 494280 494282
      494283 495285 495286 496289 496289
 0.25 499276 500273 500269 499264 498258 496255 492245 488236
      489233 492233 495236 498240 502242 504239 504234 504226
      503221 501217 498214 494212 491212 485210 481210 474213
      472219 474222 475225 473226 472229 472232 469235 467240
      466243 467247 474252 482253 486256 488259 493268 496274
      499276
 0.25 487136 486130 486124 487121 488116 485115 481117 474118
      469123 465128 460131 454144 450151 448157 447166 448170
      451172 455171 457169 461164 471158 474152 479147 483143
      487136 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 437737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 455906 456881 454869 452860 447843 443836 438831 433831
      428836 425846 424855 423874 423884 426893 428902 431911
      435918 440921 444922 448920 452915 455906
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 375069 373072 371075
      372080 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 343122 345117 345111 343105 340098 338095 335093 327096
      321097 315101 307099 298097 295091 291086 286083 279079
      274075 268071 262068 252060 247056 241053 237053 233054
      230059 228063 229066 233071 244079 255085 261090 265094
      274104 281108 288109 297110 304114 310117 317120 324119
      328119 330120 334123 338125 343122
 0.25 328772 328767 327762 325755 323746 319743 311752 304763
      300770 298775 295781 291786 282795 279799 276801 272802
      263804 257805 254807 253811 259815 264818 270820 283823
      289824 289829 287830 285833 285836 288841 293847 296853
      299854 302852 303845 304829 305822 307818 310817 315813
      319808 325796 327790 327784 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 297895 297885 297877 295870 295862 295855 291850 287846
      285845 281846 275848 271852 264862 258871 255876 250880
      242888 237891 234896 233904 233910 235917 237923 240929
      244933 248936 252939 261947 266950 272953 285954 289951
      293945 296940 297932 295914 296902 297895
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 466152 466150 465149 464148 462148 460150 459152 458153
      457155 458156 460157 462156 463156 463155 465154 465153
      466152
 0.50 449887 448875 445863 440856 434850 432854 431862 430874
      430884 432890 434894 438902 441906 445908 448904 448899
      449887
 0.50 322788 323782 323776 319767 316765 313767 308773 304779
      298785 287795 285800 286805 288808 284810 276807 273805
      269805 265807 263810 265813 269814 276816 285818 290817
      293818 297818 300815 309812 312811 315808 319801 321793
      322788
 0.50 291883 289874 284867 277865 273864 268865 263871 260878
      256884 249889 242893 238899 237904 238909 241915 246921
      252926 254927 257925 260924 266919 272915 278910 286897
      289889 291883
 0.50 282095 283090 282087 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 235061 235065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      278097 282095
 1.00 311799 311796 310795 308795 306796 304796 303796 301797
      300798 299799 299800 301801 303802 305802 307802 309802
      310801 310800 311799
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 012124
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM OUTLOOK BASED MAINLY ON
SATL/RADAR TRENDS. SULLIVAN

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 475622 477628 479637 484651 490664 495680 495698
      494712 491728 491736 491742 491746 490766 487780 484786
      483794 481812 480816 481820 481831 479849 476862 474869
      473873 474877 483888 484895 484904 476916 469925 465928
      462936 459940 455943 456949 455954 454957 452964 447972
      438983 429990 425992 422994 419995 417996 414996 412990
      412981 414975 416968 418964 418960 413962 408964 403967
      400970 393974 387977 385974 388968 391961 394957 396949
      400945 402939 406934 414924 422917 424914 423909 423900
      423888 422877 421871 420867 417868 413871 409873 402872
      398867 393862 389859 384857 381857 381854 382838 383830
      381823 378819 374821 369824 362825 358822 360815 359806
      361800 366795 367788 368779 371775 374772 381770 387769
      397775 408783 414793 419796 420798 420803 419809 415815
      415820 416825 420827 426831 431833 440839 448848 456858
      458860 460859 463852 467839 463835 460832 460828 459819
      457812 454810 452811 450810 451807 452799 449793 447788
      446780 445775 446771 449764 452758 453750 454736 454725
      455717 458704 460695 459685 458669 454653 452647 450639
      451627
 0.01 548167 550160 550152 551147 549142 547135 542130 540129
      538132 534137 530143 524147 522149 518149 513147 505143
      497142 494141 492137 486133 481130 479135 480137 480142
      475144 468146 464146 463150 462161 457165 452168 449175
      447179 445185 444191 446194 449192 450189 452187 458185
      462181 467176 472173 476172 480175 484180 485185 488188
      488193 486197 480200 475202 464208 451212 439215 429220
      425220 422221 421224 425225 427226 427230 424233 418234
      416235 415240 419245 427248 428251 431254 432256 436255
      439251 443250 448251 454251 461252 465253 467255 477265
      487275 499286 507288 509288 512285 515280 517278 519272
      520265 521253 520248 521241 525235 530231 534226 537218
      539207 541195 542184 546175 548167
 0.01 504972 504959 504952 503949 493939 489932 484927 479924
      476930 475936 473940 472949 471954 470960 470972 470978
      469982 469991 470996 472994 474993 477997 482997 485993
      486990 488979 494980 497980 500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 385054 388050 392050 394048 392045 389038 385038
      383040 380038 378036 381030 385029 387028 390025 390020
      391009 392999 392990 387990 382997 378004 375010 372018
      366032 363040 359045 332055 327055 326058 324061 325065
      326072 325078 321081 316081 310079 305078 302076 296077
      280074 272072 266068 255060 243053 237051 233055 232060
      233063 238069 247079 252084 259087 268095 277105 280109
      283111 289113 295118 299123 301125 305127 310127 314126
      321125 325122 332119 337114 342109 345103 348095 350092
      352090 354091 356093 360094 359089 356085 358081 361074
      366068 368067 370070 375083 379083 381080 384078 386077
      388079 396080 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340903 335901 327902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343780 341777 334773 329772 330771 329757 328750
      326746 322736 318730 313732 311736 309746 310753 309757
      309768 308778 307784 305788 298793 291796 288796 287794
      287791 265793 253794 244797 240799 238802 236811 241829
      247835 251836 256837 265837 269838 273840 286850 293856
      300858 308854 314847 319841 322832 329815 336798 341792
      344788
 0.01 312949 313943 311940 306935 303930 301920 294904 289897
      285893 282889 279889 274889 271891 267896 264903 260921
      260926 262929 266933 270936 272939 275947 275952 274956
      272960 270962 266965 263966 259967 254968 239971 233975
      231983 232990 232995 234999 236003 239005 241008 245009
      252011 257011 260010 264009 267006 270999 273993 279989
      285983 290978 299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      491165 489169 490173 494182 495185 499187 507190 512194
      516201 520208 523216 528220 530220 532217 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 471215 471218 473220 479222 485224 489228 491234
      492238 489238 484238 476230 471232 466233 464233 462235
      460238 461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 503281
      506280 509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 457219 456218 452217 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457898 456896 455897 454896 453896 455898 454901 455902
      456901 456900 457898
 0.25 455918 456915 455913 455910 455908 454906 453905 452906
      451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916 447917
      447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919 455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443926 443925
      442925 440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935
      442935 443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428969 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 405848 404845 403843 402841 402840 401839 400837 399837
      398836 396836 395837 395838 393840 393842 393843 394844
      395846 397848 397849 399850 401850 402850 404849 405848
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 390797 393795 396791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 322747 320744 318743 316751 315766 313781
      310787 308795 306800 302806 297809 291809 275810 266812
      262812 260813 264817 270819 283823 287825 280826 277829
      278833 282838 290845 296849 300849 302848 307845 311839
      315825 318819 318810 325782 325764
 0.25 299943 298926 295920 292914 287910 281909 276913 273916
      273919 277924 281929 285941 284949 281956 279961 277969
      278971 280973 284973 286971 292960 296954 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213
 0.50 513255 513248 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511260 513255
 0.50 518185 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167 495169
      495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501269 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 481239
      479236 474234 472239 475244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317793 318791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303821 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298821 299823 298826 292827 286829 287835
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540176 539171 537166 534157 529137 521131
      517129 511128 504131 499133 493131 493127 496124 498120
      501118 504115 508113 511112 515110 520102 524091 524082
      523077 522072 520070 517069 512074 506079 483100 479099
      476099 466101 461101 458105 456109 453110 450112 449115
      449122 447129 441134 438138 438141 437167 437170 434171
      431168 422166 417173 415177 414182 412198 411206 411209
      413210 418212 418219 418223 423221 434210 439202 444194
      451190 459183 470166 473164 476160 479159 481163 483166
      482171 483175 485178 487183 488190 489192 488196 485201
      478204 473206 470209 463213 456215 440216 437219 436223
      441226 444226 450228 450232 448233 443234 439238 443254
      447261 455258 459259 462262 465266 470264 476271 482281
      486290 490297 493301 499303 503302 506300 510290 510285
      512281 515276 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 512913 511907 508900 504893 500890 496886 489881 482877
      479875 478869 467855 461851 457843 455831 450823 445820
      443816 438808 436802 436793 438790 440791 444793 452789
      455786 458782 461778 464771 465758 466747 468737 472728
      474725 475718 476709 476702 476694 475678 473664 471658
      469653 465650 461651 459656 458661 459674 460683 460689
      459696 457699 453703 451707 448707 447704 443699 438695
      429696 423702 420706 418711 416722 414731 413752 411763
      405773 402778 399781 394783 390782 385781 382781 381777
      377769 374767 370769 363771 358774 351778 349780 347778
      350774 352772 355768 356764 355758 354751 352749 343746
      339744 335741 334734 332728 327720 321714 313711 310710
      305711 301714 298718 297722 298728 299742 299757 294762
      290769 287777 282785 276788 272790 267790 259788 250786
      243786 239789 237793 239798 243803 244808 244817 244821
      243823 241827 242833 244837 250843 254848 256853 250859
      245865 237879 233886 229894 228899 228906 229919 231943
      232955 233965 232979 231983 230989 231995 234001 236003
      241007 244008 249008 258006 264003 266000 269995 270987
      273985 276985 281985 288981 294977 301969 307961 310952
      311939 310912 310896 310892 313891 317889 322881 323871
      323859 320850 317843 313834 314830 317826 321822 324818
      332800 333795 335791 340784 341782 344782 344788 344794
      346798 349802 352806 356808 361805 364806 363810 362814
      359817 356821 352824 351828 348832 348837 350842 352844
      357844 361843 364839 367835 371832 374833 378834 379837
      379841 380843 383846 389851 399851 402850 404854 405859
      408870 409885 410892 407897 406902 407906 410910 413912
      413925 412930 409934 400949 395956 391963 387972 385977
      386984 389990 392993 399998 406996 412989
 0.01 412989 416983 419978 423971 426966 433952 437947 442942
      446938 450935 455930 459925 463919 469917 473915 476915
      484915 495919 501923 503924 507924 510919 512913
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421205 422206 423205
 0.01 426027 426022 425018 419009 413008 408010 406012 397011
      393013 388013 381017 375021 369028 364035 358042 356039
      355035 353026 347030 339034 335036 335040 332045 328046
      321046 317047 313047 311050 310060 312064 314066 316069
      312068 309066 304065 296067 288070 283071 280071 273067
      268064 255055 248051 244048 242044 239036 236032 232031
      227035 226045 224065 227074 232081 257100 269110 276115
      284116 290121 298126 314131 319131 322132 330136 346143
      351144 355143 364140 370137 374135 375132 381128 389125
      397122 403118 398113 392111 388109 373111 369108 368102
      373097 381097 388093 410068 416064 416059 414057 409048
      408045 410043 412040 417038 422035 426027
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523175 524167 520152 519147 516145
      511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198 517203
      520210 525211 528204 531194
 0.25 496289 498286 498284 498281 496279 495279 494280 494282
      494283 495285 495286 496289 496289
 0.25 499276 500273 500269 499264 498258 496255 492245 488236
      489233 492233 495236 498240 502242 504239 504234 504226
      503221 501217 498214 494212 491212 485210 481210 474213
      472219 474222 475225 473226 472229 472232 469235 467240
      466243 467247 474252 482253 486256 488259 493268 496274
      499276
 0.25 487136 486130 486124 487121 488116 485115 481117 474118
      469123 465128 460131 454144 450151 448157 447166 448170
      451172 455171 457169 461164 471158 474152 479147 483143
      487136 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 437737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 455906 456881 454869 452860 447843 443836 438831 433831
      428836 425846 424855 423874 423884 426893 428902 431911
      435918 440921 444922 448920 452915 455906
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 375069 373072 371075
      372080 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 343122 345117 345111 343105 340098 338095 335093 327096
      321097 315101 307099 298097 295091 291086 286083 279079
      274075 268071 262068 252060 247056 241053 237053 233054
      230059 228063 229066 233071 244079 255085 261090 265094
      274104 281108 288109 297110 304114 310117 317120 324119
      328119 330120 334123 338125 343122
 0.25 328772 328767 327762 325755 323746 319743 311752 304763
      300770 298775 295781 291786 282795 279799 276801 272802
      263804 257805 254807 253811 259815 264818 270820 283823
      289824 289829 287830 285833 285836 288841 293847 296853
      299854 302852 303845 304829 305822 307818 310817 315813
      319808 325796 327790 327784 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 297895 297885 297877 295870 295862 295855 291850 287846
      285845 281846 275848 271852 264862 258871 255876 250880
      242888 237891 234896 233904 233910 235917 237923 240929
      244933 248936 252939 261947 266950 272953 285954 289951
      293945 296940 297932 295914 296902 297895
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 466152 466150 465149 464148 462148 460150 459152 458153
      457155 458156 460157 462156 463156 463155 465154 465153
      466152
 0.50 449887 448875 445863 440856 434850 432854 431862 430874
      430884 432890 434894 438902 441906 445908 448904 448899
      449887
 0.50 322788 323782 323776 319767 316765 313767 308773 304779
      298785 287795 285800 286805 288808 284810 276807 273805
      269805 265807 263810 265813 269814 276816 285818 290817
      293818 297818 300815 309812 312811 315808 319801 321793
      322788
 0.50 291883 289874 284867 277865 273864 268865 263871 260878
      256884 249889 242893 238899 237904 238909 241915 246921
      252926 254927 257925 260924 266919 272915 278910 286897
      289889 291883
 0.50 282095 283090 282087 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 235061 235065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      278097 282095
 1.00 311799 311796 310795 308795 306796 304796 303796 301797
      300798 299799 299800 301801 303802 305802 307802 309802
      310801 310800 311799
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 012124
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM OUTLOOK BASED MAINLY ON
SATL/RADAR TRENDS. SULLIVAN

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 475622 477628 479637 484651 490664 495680 495698
      494712 491728 491736 491742 491746 490766 487780 484786
      483794 481812 480816 481820 481831 479849 476862 474869
      473873 474877 483888 484895 484904 476916 469925 465928
      462936 459940 455943 456949 455954 454957 452964 447972
      438983 429990 425992 422994 419995 417996 414996 412990
      412981 414975 416968 418964 418960 413962 408964 403967
      400970 393974 387977 385974 388968 391961 394957 396949
      400945 402939 406934 414924 422917 424914 423909 423900
      423888 422877 421871 420867 417868 413871 409873 402872
      398867 393862 389859 384857 381857 381854 382838 383830
      381823 378819 374821 369824 362825 358822 360815 359806
      361800 366795 367788 368779 371775 374772 381770 387769
      397775 408783 414793 419796 420798 420803 419809 415815
      415820 416825 420827 426831 431833 440839 448848 456858
      458860 460859 463852 467839 463835 460832 460828 459819
      457812 454810 452811 450810 451807 452799 449793 447788
      446780 445775 446771 449764 452758 453750 454736 454725
      455717 458704 460695 459685 458669 454653 452647 450639
      451627
 0.01 548167 550160 550152 551147 549142 547135 542130 540129
      538132 534137 530143 524147 522149 518149 513147 505143
      497142 494141 492137 486133 481130 479135 480137 480142
      475144 468146 464146 463150 462161 457165 452168 449175
      447179 445185 444191 446194 449192 450189 452187 458185
      462181 467176 472173 476172 480175 484180 485185 488188
      488193 486197 480200 475202 464208 451212 439215 429220
      425220 422221 421224 425225 427226 427230 424233 418234
      416235 415240 419245 427248 428251 431254 432256 436255
      439251 443250 448251 454251 461252 465253 467255 477265
      487275 499286 507288 509288 512285 515280 517278 519272
      520265 521253 520248 521241 525235 530231 534226 537218
      539207 541195 542184 546175 548167
 0.01 504972 504959 504952 503949 493939 489932 484927 479924
      476930 475936 473940 472949 471954 470960 470972 470978
      469982 469991 470996 472994 474993 477997 482997 485993
      486990 488979 494980 497980 500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 385054 388050 392050 394048 392045 389038 385038
      383040 380038 378036 381030 385029 387028 390025 390020
      391009 392999 392990 387990 382997 378004 375010 372018
      366032 363040 359045 332055 327055 326058 324061 325065
      326072 325078 321081 316081 310079 305078 302076 296077
      280074 272072 266068 255060 243053 237051 233055 232060
      233063 238069 247079 252084 259087 268095 277105 280109
      283111 289113 295118 299123 301125 305127 310127 314126
      321125 325122 332119 337114 342109 345103 348095 350092
      352090 354091 356093 360094 359089 356085 358081 361074
      366068 368067 370070 375083 379083 381080 384078 386077
      388079 396080 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340903 335901 327902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343780 341777 334773 329772 330771 329757 328750
      326746 322736 318730 313732 311736 309746 310753 309757
      309768 308778 307784 305788 298793 291796 288796 287794
      287791 265793 253794 244797 240799 238802 236811 241829
      247835 251836 256837 265837 269838 273840 286850 293856
      300858 308854 314847 319841 322832 329815 336798 341792
      344788
 0.01 312949 313943 311940 306935 303930 301920 294904 289897
      285893 282889 279889 274889 271891 267896 264903 260921
      260926 262929 266933 270936 272939 275947 275952 274956
      272960 270962 266965 263966 259967 254968 239971 233975
      231983 232990 232995 234999 236003 239005 241008 245009
      252011 257011 260010 264009 267006 270999 273993 279989
      285983 290978 299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      491165 489169 490173 494182 495185 499187 507190 512194
      516201 520208 523216 528220 530220 532217 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 471215 471218 473220 479222 485224 489228 491234
      492238 489238 484238 476230 471232 466233 464233 462235
      460238 461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 503281
      506280 509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 457219 456218 452217 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457898 456896 455897 454896 453896 455898 454901 455902
      456901 456900 457898
 0.25 455918 456915 455913 455910 455908 454906 453905 452906
      451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916 447917
      447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919 455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443926 443925
      442925 440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935
      442935 443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428969 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 405848 404845 403843 402841 402840 401839 400837 399837
      398836 396836 395837 395838 393840 393842 393843 394844
      395846 397848 397849 399850 401850 402850 404849 405848
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 390797 393795 396791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 322747 320744 318743 316751 315766 313781
      310787 308795 306800 302806 297809 291809 275810 266812
      262812 260813 264817 270819 283823 287825 280826 277829
      278833 282838 290845 296849 300849 302848 307845 311839
      315825 318819 318810 325782 325764
 0.25 299943 298926 295920 292914 287910 281909 276913 273916
      273919 277924 281929 285941 284949 281956 279961 277969
      278971 280973 284973 286971 292960 296954 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213
 0.50 513255 513248 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511260 513255
 0.50 518185 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167 495169
      495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501269 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 481239
      479236 474234 472239 475244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317793 318791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303821 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298821 299823 298826 292827 286829 287835
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540176 539171 537166 534157 529137 521131
      517129 511128 504131 499133 493131 493127 496124 498120
      501118 504115 508113 511112 515110 520102 524091 524082
      523077 522072 520070 517069 512074 506079 483100 479099
      476099 466101 461101 458105 456109 453110 450112 449115
      449122 447129 441134 438138 438141 437167 437170 434171
      431168 422166 417173 415177 414182 412198 411206 411209
      413210 418212 418219 418223 423221 434210 439202 444194
      451190 459183 470166 473164 476160 479159 481163 483166
      482171 483175 485178 487183 488190 489192 488196 485201
      478204 473206 470209 463213 456215 440216 437219 436223
      441226 444226 450228 450232 448233 443234 439238 443254
      447261 455258 459259 462262 465266 470264 476271 482281
      486290 490297 493301 499303 503302 506300 510290 510285
      512281 515276 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 512913 511907 508900 504893 500890 496886 489881 482877
      479875 478869 467855 461851 457843 455831 450823 445820
      443816 438808 436802 436793 438790 440791 444793 452789
      455786 458782 461778 464771 465758 466747 468737 472728
      474725 475718 476709 476702 476694 475678 473664 471658
      469653 465650 461651 459656 458661 459674 460683 460689
      459696 457699 453703 451707 448707 447704 443699 438695
      429696 423702 420706 418711 416722 414731 413752 411763
      405773 402778 399781 394783 390782 385781 382781 381777
      377769 374767 370769 363771 358774 351778 349780 347778
      350774 352772 355768 356764 355758 354751 352749 343746
      339744 335741 334734 332728 327720 321714 313711 310710
      305711 301714 298718 297722 298728 299742 299757 294762
      290769 287777 282785 276788 272790 267790 259788 250786
      243786 239789 237793 239798 243803 244808 244817 244821
      243823 241827 242833 244837 250843 254848 256853 250859
      245865 237879 233886 229894 228899 228906 229919 231943
      232955 233965 232979 231983 230989 231995 234001 236003
      241007 244008 249008 258006 264003 266000 269995 270987
      273985 276985 281985 288981 294977 301969 307961 310952
      311939 310912 310896 310892 313891 317889 322881 323871
      323859 320850 317843 313834 314830 317826 321822 324818
      332800 333795 335791 340784 341782 344782 344788 344794
      346798 349802 352806 356808 361805 364806 363810 362814
      359817 356821 352824 351828 348832 348837 350842 352844
      357844 361843 364839 367835 371832 374833 378834 379837
      379841 380843 383846 389851 399851 402850 404854 405859
      408870 409885 410892 407897 406902 407906 410910 413912
      413925 412930 409934 400949 395956 391963 387972 385977
      386984 389990 392993 399998 406996 412989
 0.01 412989 416983 419978 423971 426966 433952 437947 442942
      446938 450935 455930 459925 463919 469917 473915 476915
      484915 495919 501923 503924 507924 510919 512913
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 423205 424203 423201 422202 421205 422206 423205
 0.01 426027 426022 425018 419009 413008 408010 406012 397011
      393013 388013 381017 375021 369028 364035 358042 356039
      355035 353026 347030 339034 335036 335040 332045 328046
      321046 317047 313047 311050 310060 312064 314066 316069
      312068 309066 304065 296067 288070 283071 280071 273067
      268064 255055 248051 244048 242044 239036 236032 232031
      227035 226045 224065 227074 232081 257100 269110 276115
      284116 290121 298126 314131 319131 322132 330136 346143
      351144 355143 364140 370137 374135 375132 381128 389125
      397122 403118 398113 392111 388109 373111 369108 368102
      373097 381097 388093 410068 416064 416059 414057 409048
      408045 410043 412040 417038 422035 426027
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523175 524167 520152 519147 516145
      511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198 517203
      520210 525211 528204 531194
 0.25 496289 498286 498284 498281 496279 495279 494280 494282
      494283 495285 495286 496289 496289
 0.25 499276 500273 500269 499264 498258 496255 492245 488236
      489233 492233 495236 498240 502242 504239 504234 504226
      503221 501217 498214 494212 491212 485210 481210 474213
      472219 474222 475225 473226 472229 472232 469235 467240
      466243 467247 474252 482253 486256 488259 493268 496274
      499276
 0.25 487136 486130 486124 487121 488116 485115 481117 474118
      469123 465128 460131 454144 450151 448157 447166 448170
      451172 455171 457169 461164 471158 474152 479147 483143
      487136 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 437737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 455906 456881 454869 452860 447843 443836 438831 433831
      428836 425846 424855 423874 423884 426893 428902 431911
      435918 440921 444922 448920 452915 455906
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 375069 373072 371075
      372080 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 343122 345117 345111 343105 340098 338095 335093 327096
      321097 315101 307099 298097 295091 291086 286083 279079
      274075 268071 262068 252060 247056 241053 237053 233054
      230059 228063 229066 233071 244079 255085 261090 265094
      274104 281108 288109 297110 304114 310117 317120 324119
      328119 330120 334123 338125 343122
 0.25 328772 328767 327762 325755 323746 319743 311752 304763
      300770 298775 295781 291786 282795 279799 276801 272802
      263804 257805 254807 253811 259815 264818 270820 283823
      289824 289829 287830 285833 285836 288841 293847 296853
      299854 302852 303845 304829 305822 307818 310817 315813
      319808 325796 327790 327784 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 297895 297885 297877 295870 295862 295855 291850 287846
      285845 281846 275848 271852 264862 258871 255876 250880
      242888 237891 234896 233904 233910 235917 237923 240929
      244933 248936 252939 261947 266950 272953 285954 289951
      293945 296940 297932 295914 296902 297895
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 466152 466150 465149 464148 462148 460150 459152 458153
      457155 458156 460157 462156 463156 463155 465154 465153
      466152
 0.50 449887 448875 445863 440856 434850 432854 431862 430874
      430884 432890 434894 438902 441906 445908 448904 448899
      449887
 0.50 322788 323782 323776 319767 316765 313767 308773 304779
      298785 287795 285800 286805 288808 284810 276807 273805
      269805 265807 263810 265813 269814 276816 285818 290817
      293818 297818 300815 309812 312811 315808 319801 321793
      322788
 0.50 291883 289874 284867 277865 273864 268865 263871 260878
      256884 249889 242893 238899 237904 238909 241915 246921
      252926 254927 257925 260924 266919 272915 278910 286897
      289889 291883
 0.50 282095 283090 282087 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 235061 235065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      278097 282095
 1.00 311799 311796 310795 308795 306796 304796 303796 301797
      300798 299799 299800 301801 303802 305802 307802 309802
      310801 310800 311799
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011951
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540180 540174 539169 535161 531149 528137
      521130 513128 498132 494132 493128 498121 505115 514111
      519106 523095 524089 524081 522072 519069 516070 513072
      510076 507079 504077 498085 495090 491093 485098 479104
      470102 467103 465102 461101 458105 455109 452111 448114
      449116 449125 447129 445130 439136 437139 439143 438147
      438153 439158 436168 434171 432170 429168 423166 420168
      415177 411207 413210 418211 422203 432188 435185 438187
      444189 449190 453188 457185 462179 466169 472165 477159
      480161 483164 482170 483175 486179 487185 488191 489194
      488197 485201 482202 474205 469210 462213 459215 455214
      436220 436223 440225 442227 447227 451226 454226 455230
      449233 442234 439238 439241 442245 443247 443251 444258
      447262 455259 458259 461261 464265 468265 472267 475270
      483284 489294 492299 496302 500303 503302 507299 509294
      512281 515275 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 510921 510914 508908 507903 505900 505895 506887 504880
      502876 499873 495872 486870 481864 476860 468855 461851
      459847 457843 456836 455832 454830 451826 448821 444819
      441813 436803 436793 437790 440791 442793 447793 455786
      460780 463771 464761 466751 467739 471730 474725 476717
      476705 476699 476693 475678 472662 470655 467651 465650
      462650 460654 458659 458664 460679 460688 460694 458699
      454701 450708 448707 447704 444700 438695 431696 424701
      421704 419709 416721 414732 413748 413753 412756 411763
      408768 406773 404776 399781 396783 386782 382780 380775
      378771 374767 372767 368770 353777 349780 347777 348776
      353770 356760 355752 352749 343746 339744 335739 331728
      325718 320713 312710 307711 301713 297720 299744 299754
      298758 295760 291767 288776 281785 273790 263790 256787
      246786 241787 239790 238792 238796 241801 243804 244811
      244821 242826 242832 246839 250843 255849 256852 255855
      252857 246864 242871 233886 229894 228897 228903 229917
      229926 230932 231947 232959 233963 233970 231982 231993
      234000 238005 246008 251008 255007 259006 262003 266001
      268997 270992 270986 280985 287981 294977 301969 305964
      308959 310947 311934 310919 310896 309892 311891 316889
      319886 321883 323874 323863 322856 321852 316840 313834
      313830 316826 321822 325816 329807 337789 342782 345783
      344786 344792 345797 347801 353806 364809 362814 359816
      354823 349831 348835 350840 352844 355844 360843 363841
      366836 370832 376833 378836 379841 384847 392851 403851
      404854 403858 403865 405876 407885 409890 408896 406899
      406905 411910 413912 413916 412921 412927 409934 406937
      404943 398952 395956 392962 387970 385979 386985 389990
      394995 401998 406996 408993
 0.01 408993 417982 423971 430959 433952 437947 442943 447940
      452936 457930 461926 465922 472920 480920 487920 490922
      494922 498927 500929 504930 507929 509926 510921
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 420017 420011 418008 415008 411010 408010 405012 395011
      391013 386013 383015 379019 373023 368030 364036 358042
      356039 355035 354031 354026 347030 341032 336035 335039
      333045 330046 327046 318046 311049 310057 312064 315067
      313069 310066 304065 300065 297067 289070 282072 276069
      263062 257056 251052 247050 244046 240039 239035 235031
      233031 230032 227035 227038 226049 224061 225068 226072
      235084 242089 248093 253096 259101 272113 276115 280115
      284116 286118 298127 314131 322132 329136 348143 357143
      362140 369138 374134 377130 380128 389123 397120 403116
      388109 373111 369109 368105 369102 372098 381097 385095
      389092 399081 403074 408068 416064 416060 414057 410049
      408047 410045 412040 420017
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523176 524167 520152 519148 516145
      514145 511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198
      517203 520210 525211 527207 528204 531194
 0.25 502275 501269 499262 497256 494249 489239 488236 486235
      483237 479234 476232 471234 467237 463242 460246 462248
      465249 470249 473251 475254 478256 483254 487258 490263
      497275 499276 502275
 0.25 498286 498284 498281 496280 495279 494280 494282 494283
      495285 495286 496289 498286
 0.25 504239 504229 503220 498214 495212 492212 484210 477211
      473216 474219 478220 483222 487230 489232 493234 498240
      501242 504240 504239
 0.25 487136 486131 486126 487121 487116 482117 472120 464128
      460131 457138 452149 448155 448165 448168 451169 454169
      456167 465160 469158 472153 476149 481145 485141 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 438737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 457910 458899 456886 455877 452867 448850 444844 441840
      438839 435844 432852 426868 424876 424882 424888 427896
      431904 433911 436919 442923 446924 450923 454918 457910
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 374069 372072 371075
      372079 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 345118 345110 343105 340098 337095 333092 330095 324096
      318100 314100 309099 300098 298097 296094 293088 286083
      264069 258065 253061 249057 242054 238053 235053 231057
      229059 229064 232070 237074 243078 255085 263092 273103
      278107 285109 294109 299111 302113 314119 330119 334123
      339125 343123 345118
 0.25 328772 327763 326757 323748 322745 319743 311752 304763
      301769 298774 296780 291786 283794 278800 272802 264803
      257805 253809 255813 258815 263818 269820 283823 289824
      291829 290836 292841 294844 297849 298852 301850 303843
      304833 306820 317811 323800 326793 327786 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 298884 298876 297871 296863 293855 289852 284852 280852
      277851 272851 268855 265859 259870 253878 244885 236892
      234898 233904 233910 234917 239928 255943 264949 268952
      276953 281954 286954 289952 290949 294943 296938 296932
      297914 296906 296898 298884
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 450899 450887 448877 445870 440865 435870 432877 431881
      432888 435895 439900 443907 447907 449904 450899
 0.50 322788 323777 319767 316765 314766 308773 304779 298785
      287795 286799 286804 287808 287810 284810 280809 277807
      273806 269805 265807 263809 264812 268814 275816 285818
      289817 293818 299815 308812 312810 315808 318802 321793
      322788
 0.50 291885 291879 290875 286868 283866 278865 275864 270864
      264869 261877 257883 251888 245891 241894 239898 237906
      239911 240915 245920 251925 255927 258925 264920 270917
      277912 281906 285898 291885
 0.50 282095 283091 282088 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 236061 236065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      277097 282095
 1.00 310797 310796 308796 306796 305797 303797 301798 301800
      303800 305801 307801 309800 310799 310798 310797
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011951
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540180 540174 539169 535161 531149 528137
      521130 513128 498132 494132 493128 498121 505115 514111
      519106 523095 524089 524081 522072 519069 516070 513072
      510076 507079 504077 498085 495090 491093 485098 479104
      470102 467103 465102 461101 458105 455109 452111 448114
      449116 449125 447129 445130 439136 437139 439143 438147
      438153 439158 436168 434171 432170 429168 423166 420168
      415177 411207 413210 418211 422203 432188 435185 438187
      444189 449190 453188 457185 462179 466169 472165 477159
      480161 483164 482170 483175 486179 487185 488191 489194
      488197 485201 482202 474205 469210 462213 459215 455214
      436220 436223 440225 442227 447227 451226 454226 455230
      449233 442234 439238 439241 442245 443247 443251 444258
      447262 455259 458259 461261 464265 468265 472267 475270
      483284 489294 492299 496302 500303 503302 507299 509294
      512281 515275 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 510921 510914 508908 507903 505900 505895 506887 504880
      502876 499873 495872 486870 481864 476860 468855 461851
      459847 457843 456836 455832 454830 451826 448821 444819
      441813 436803 436793 437790 440791 442793 447793 455786
      460780 463771 464761 466751 467739 471730 474725 476717
      476705 476699 476693 475678 472662 470655 467651 465650
      462650 460654 458659 458664 460679 460688 460694 458699
      454701 450708 448707 447704 444700 438695 431696 424701
      421704 419709 416721 414732 413748 413753 412756 411763
      408768 406773 404776 399781 396783 386782 382780 380775
      378771 374767 372767 368770 353777 349780 347777 348776
      353770 356760 355752 352749 343746 339744 335739 331728
      325718 320713 312710 307711 301713 297720 299744 299754
      298758 295760 291767 288776 281785 273790 263790 256787
      246786 241787 239790 238792 238796 241801 243804 244811
      244821 242826 242832 246839 250843 255849 256852 255855
      252857 246864 242871 233886 229894 228897 228903 229917
      229926 230932 231947 232959 233963 233970 231982 231993
      234000 238005 246008 251008 255007 259006 262003 266001
      268997 270992 270986 280985 287981 294977 301969 305964
      308959 310947 311934 310919 310896 309892 311891 316889
      319886 321883 323874 323863 322856 321852 316840 313834
      313830 316826 321822 325816 329807 337789 342782 345783
      344786 344792 345797 347801 353806 364809 362814 359816
      354823 349831 348835 350840 352844 355844 360843 363841
      366836 370832 376833 378836 379841 384847 392851 403851
      404854 403858 403865 405876 407885 409890 408896 406899
      406905 411910 413912 413916 412921 412927 409934 406937
      404943 398952 395956 392962 387970 385979 386985 389990
      394995 401998 406996 408993
 0.01 408993 417982 423971 430959 433952 437947 442943 447940
      452936 457930 461926 465922 472920 480920 487920 490922
      494922 498927 500929 504930 507929 509926 510921
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 420017 420011 418008 415008 411010 408010 405012 395011
      391013 386013 383015 379019 373023 368030 364036 358042
      356039 355035 354031 354026 347030 341032 336035 335039
      333045 330046 327046 318046 311049 310057 312064 315067
      313069 310066 304065 300065 297067 289070 282072 276069
      263062 257056 251052 247050 244046 240039 239035 235031
      233031 230032 227035 227038 226049 224061 225068 226072
      235084 242089 248093 253096 259101 272113 276115 280115
      284116 286118 298127 314131 322132 329136 348143 357143
      362140 369138 374134 377130 380128 389123 397120 403116
      388109 373111 369109 368105 369102 372098 381097 385095
      389092 399081 403074 408068 416064 416060 414057 410049
      408047 410045 412040 420017
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523176 524167 520152 519148 516145
      514145 511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198
      517203 520210 525211 527207 528204 531194
 0.25 502275 501269 499262 497256 494249 489239 488236 486235
      483237 479234 476232 471234 467237 463242 460246 462248
      465249 470249 473251 475254 478256 483254 487258 490263
      497275 499276 502275
 0.25 498286 498284 498281 496280 495279 494280 494282 494283
      495285 495286 496289 498286
 0.25 504239 504229 503220 498214 495212 492212 484210 477211
      473216 474219 478220 483222 487230 489232 493234 498240
      501242 504240 504239
 0.25 487136 486131 486126 487121 487116 482117 472120 464128
      460131 457138 452149 448155 448165 448168 451169 454169
      456167 465160 469158 472153 476149 481145 485141 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 438737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 457910 458899 456886 455877 452867 448850 444844 441840
      438839 435844 432852 426868 424876 424882 424888 427896
      431904 433911 436919 442923 446924 450923 454918 457910
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 374069 372072 371075
      372079 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 345118 345110 343105 340098 337095 333092 330095 324096
      318100 314100 309099 300098 298097 296094 293088 286083
      264069 258065 253061 249057 242054 238053 235053 231057
      229059 229064 232070 237074 243078 255085 263092 273103
      278107 285109 294109 299111 302113 314119 330119 334123
      339125 343123 345118
 0.25 328772 327763 326757 323748 322745 319743 311752 304763
      301769 298774 296780 291786 283794 278800 272802 264803
      257805 253809 255813 258815 263818 269820 283823 289824
      291829 290836 292841 294844 297849 298852 301850 303843
      304833 306820 317811 323800 326793 327786 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 298884 298876 297871 296863 293855 289852 284852 280852
      277851 272851 268855 265859 259870 253878 244885 236892
      234898 233904 233910 234917 239928 255943 264949 268952
      276953 281954 286954 289952 290949 294943 296938 296932
      297914 296906 296898 298884
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 450899 450887 448877 445870 440865 435870 432877 431881
      432888 435895 439900 443907 447907 449904 450899
 0.50 322788 323777 319767 316765 314766 308773 304779 298785
      287795 286799 286804 287808 287810 284810 280809 277807
      273806 269805 265807 263809 264812 268814 275816 285818
      289817 293818 299815 308812 312810 315808 318802 321793
      322788
 0.50 291885 291879 290875 286868 283866 278865 275864 270864
      264869 261877 257883 251888 245891 241894 239898 237906
      239911 240915 245920 251925 255927 258925 264920 270917
      277912 281906 285898 291885
 0.50 282095 283091 282088 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 236061 236065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      277097 282095
 1.00 310797 310796 308796 306796 305797 303797 301798 301800
      303800 305801 307801 309800 310799 310798 310797
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011951
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TOPS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH POOLING
OF MOISTURE AND 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE/LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN WI/MI.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH
THE RAINFALL DEPICTED IN WI THIS RUN WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00
ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM ON THIS TREND (BUT MISSING FROM
THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM).  THE INCREASED CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS LED TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEING USED FOR MANUAL QPF
IN WI/MI.  THE 12Z ECMWF MOVED HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
EASTERN WI AND MI FOLLOWING A SOUTH DRIFT IN THE 700 MB WAVE AND
EMBEDDED LOW TRAJECTORY.  CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ON THIS
CHANGES SO ONLY MINOR HEDGING WAS DONE TO ADJUST FOR THE 12Z ECMWF.

...SOUTHWEST...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD.  EACH
PERTURBATION FOCUSES LOW LEVEL BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW
TAKE WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.  00Z-12Z GFS DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION WHICH
DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. THE COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL MAXIMA WITH THE COVERAGE WANING
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE HIGHER WITH THEIR
RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THESE 4 FORECASTS GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTIES PLUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PHASING APPARENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ACROSS WA
INTO OR...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
OR/NORTHERN CA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THE JET LEVEL...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
SECTOR OF THE 100 KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM JET MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH
PLAINS FOCUSES DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND RAINFALL ACROSS IDAHO
AND WESTERN MT ON DAY 2.
ON DAY 3 THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS BREAK OUT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING AMOUNTS FRI AFTERNOON IN ND AND ADJACENT
SD/MN...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF.  TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN DIFFERING AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN FL DRIFTS SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR APPALACHEE BAY NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN FL.  ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BNDRY PROMOTES SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
FAVORED DIURNAL CYCLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION.  LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
RAINFALL IN PENINSULAR FLORIDA...AND ARE PREFERRED WITH THE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (GFS FCST
PW VALUES OF 2 INCHES) FAVORING WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OF A 00Z RUN BULLS EYE NEAR THE AL GULF COAST
AND THE 12Z RUN WAS PREFERRED.

BURKE/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 540208 541191 540180 540174 539169 535161 531149 528137
      521130 513128 498132 494132 493128 498121 505115 514111
      519106 523095 524089 524081 522072 519069 516070 513072
      510076 507079 504077 498085 495090 491093 485098 479104
      470102 467103 465102 461101 458105 455109 452111 448114
      449116 449125 447129 445130 439136 437139 439143 438147
      438153 439158 436168 434171 432170 429168 423166 420168
      415177 411207 413210 418211 422203 432188 435185 438187
      444189 449190 453188 457185 462179 466169 472165 477159
      480161 483164 482170 483175 486179 487185 488191 489194
      488197 485201 482202 474205 469210 462213 459215 455214
      436220 436223 440225 442227 447227 451226 454226 455230
      449233 442234 439238 439241 442245 443247 443251 444258
      447262 455259 458259 461261 464265 468265 472267 475270
      483284 489294 492299 496302 500303 503302 507299 509294
      512281 515275 520271 528247 527244 525242 522242 520243
      517243 516238 517233 519231 520229 524228 526228 529227
      530226 533225 534223 536218 537215 539211
 0.01 510921 510914 508908 507903 505900 505895 506887 504880
      502876 499873 495872 486870 481864 476860 468855 461851
      459847 457843 456836 455832 454830 451826 448821 444819
      441813 436803 436793 437790 440791 442793 447793 455786
      460780 463771 464761 466751 467739 471730 474725 476717
      476705 476699 476693 475678 472662 470655 467651 465650
      462650 460654 458659 458664 460679 460688 460694 458699
      454701 450708 448707 447704 444700 438695 431696 424701
      421704 419709 416721 414732 413748 413753 412756 411763
      408768 406773 404776 399781 396783 386782 382780 380775
      378771 374767 372767 368770 353777 349780 347777 348776
      353770 356760 355752 352749 343746 339744 335739 331728
      325718 320713 312710 307711 301713 297720 299744 299754
      298758 295760 291767 288776 281785 273790 263790 256787
      246786 241787 239790 238792 238796 241801 243804 244811
      244821 242826 242832 246839 250843 255849 256852 255855
      252857 246864 242871 233886 229894 228897 228903 229917
      229926 230932 231947 232959 233963 233970 231982 231993
      234000 238005 246008 251008 255007 259006 262003 266001
      268997 270992 270986 280985 287981 294977 301969 305964
      308959 310947 311934 310919 310896 309892 311891 316889
      319886 321883 323874 323863 322856 321852 316840 313834
      313830 316826 321822 325816 329807 337789 342782 345783
      344786 344792 345797 347801 353806 364809 362814 359816
      354823 349831 348835 350840 352844 355844 360843 363841
      366836 370832 376833 378836 379841 384847 392851 403851
      404854 403858 403865 405876 407885 409890 408896 406899
      406905 411910 413912 413916 412921 412927 409934 406937
      404943 398952 395956 392962 387970 385979 386985 389990
      394995 401998 406996 408993
 0.01 408993 417982 423971 430959 433952 437947 442943 447940
      452936 457930 461926 465922 472920 480920 487920 490922
      494922 498927 500929 504930 507929 509926 510921
 0.01 451100 452095 450092 447094 442091 438091 438093 434095
      431094 431097 432099 432104 431111 433114 436114 440110
      443111 444108 442106 444101 450100 451100
 0.01 420017 420011 418008 415008 411010 408010 405012 395011
      391013 386013 383015 379019 373023 368030 364036 358042
      356039 355035 354031 354026 347030 341032 336035 335039
      333045 330046 327046 318046 311049 310057 312064 315067
      313069 310066 304065 300065 297067 289070 282072 276069
      263062 257056 251052 247050 244046 240039 239035 235031
      233031 230032 227035 227038 226049 224061 225068 226072
      235084 242089 248093 253096 259101 272113 276115 280115
      284116 286118 298127 314131 322132 329136 348143 357143
      362140 369138 374134 377130 380128 389123 397120 403116
      388109 373111 369109 368105 369102 372098 381097 385095
      389092 399081 403074 408068 416064 416060 414057 410049
      408047 410045 412040 420017
 0.25 531194 530187 526181 523176 524167 520152 519148 516145
      514145 511147 503155 494163 492171 495179 505187 513198
      517203 520210 525211 527207 528204 531194
 0.25 502275 501269 499262 497256 494249 489239 488236 486235
      483237 479234 476232 471234 467237 463242 460246 462248
      465249 470249 473251 475254 478256 483254 487258 490263
      497275 499276 502275
 0.25 498286 498284 498281 496280 495279 494280 494282 494283
      495285 495286 496289 498286
 0.25 504239 504229 503220 498214 495212 492212 484210 477211
      473216 474219 478220 483222 487230 489232 493234 498240
      501242 504240 504239
 0.25 487136 486131 486126 487121 487116 482117 472120 464128
      460131 457138 452149 448155 448165 448168 451169 454169
      456167 465160 469158 472153 476149 481145 485141 487136
 0.25 451740 451737 449737 444739 440738 438737 435739 434744
      434749 435756 437760 440755 442755 445752 446746 448743
      450743 451740
 0.25 457910 458899 456886 455877 452867 448850 444844 441840
      438839 435844 432852 426868 424876 424882 424888 427896
      431904 433911 436919 442923 446924 450923 454918 457910
 0.25 435722 435720 435717 434715 434713 432714 430716 429719
      429720 429721 430723 432725 433724 435722 435722
 0.25 385074 385072 383069 380067 376068 374069 372072 371075
      372079 374082 375083 379083 381082 383081 385077 385074
 0.25 345118 345110 343105 340098 337095 333092 330095 324096
      318100 314100 309099 300098 298097 296094 293088 286083
      264069 258065 253061 249057 242054 238053 235053 231057
      229059 229064 232070 237074 243078 255085 263092 273103
      278107 285109 294109 299111 302113 314119 330119 334123
      339125 343123 345118
 0.25 328772 327763 326757 323748 322745 319743 311752 304763
      301769 298774 296780 291786 283794 278800 272802 264803
      257805 253809 255813 258815 263818 269820 283823 289824
      291829 290836 292841 294844 297849 298852 301850 303843
      304833 306820 317811 323800 326793 327786 328772
 0.25 297103 298101 298100 297101 297103 297103
 0.25 298884 298876 297871 296863 293855 289852 284852 280852
      277851 272851 268855 265859 259870 253878 244885 236892
      234898 233904 233910 234917 239928 255943 264949 268952
      276953 281954 286954 289952 290949 294943 296938 296932
      297914 296906 296898 298884
 0.25 244996 245992 245988 244986 241984 239983 238985 237988
      236991 236995 237997 240999 240000 243998 244996
 0.50 508177 507174 505172 505171 504170 502169 501168 499169
      498170 497171 497172 497173 497174 498176 500177 501178
      503178 503179 505179 506179 508177
 0.50 450899 450887 448877 445870 440865 435870 432877 431881
      432888 435895 439900 443907 447907 449904 450899
 0.50 322788 323777 319767 316765 314766 308773 304779 298785
      287795 286799 286804 287808 287810 284810 280809 277807
      273806 269805 265807 263809 264812 268814 275816 285818
      289817 293818 299815 308812 312810 315808 318802 321793
      322788
 0.50 291885 291879 290875 286868 283866 278865 275864 270864
      264869 261877 257883 251888 245891 241894 239898 237906
      239911 240915 245920 251925 255927 258925 264920 270917
      277912 281906 285898 291885
 0.50 282095 283091 282088 279084 270075 260070 252063 248060
      241059 236061 236065 237067 247074 255081 264088 272095
      277097 282095
 1.00 310797 310796 308796 306796 305797 303797 301798 301800
      303800 305801 307801 309800 310799 310798 310797
 1.00 268083 267081 265079 263078 259076 257075 254073 256075
      257077 259079 261080 264082 266083 268083

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 567910 564927 564934 561941 561963 561972 561977 559980
      558985 556990 555991 551994 547996 532011 529016 529020
      532020 543022 548017 551017 552023 552031 550039 547047
      543060 539073 537079 534083 530090 530100 531106 534112
      537118 539125 540140 541149 545152 548156 550162 550165
      542195 537197 535200 535204 534209 532214 529217 529229
      527242 525254 522264 518269 516270 511268 508261 505253
      501246 495235 493228 490225 486225 483225 482228 483231
      490235 495244 499251 502258 505265 507276 506281 504284
      502286 499285 494283 492281 485274 481269 477270 474278
      470284 466288 460290 455289 452290 447288 444285 439278
      434276 432278 428277 425275 423270 420264 430234 417239
      404242 400236 396228 396223 397217 401206 405201 408193
      412186 417180 419178 420175 419173 416167 414160 413151
      414146 416144 418142 422142 427144 432140 437120 435112
      436098 461088 459080 458072 458066 460063 464057 468057
      470055 466053 464050 453044 450039 448034 448031 446029
      439024 433028 429030 428032 424037 417041 408041 404041
      404043 406044 412049 415050 418054 424058 428058 431055
      435050 440047 444048 448051 447056 445067 450075 454081
      454084 451085 448080 442074 437073 429068 424074 424079
      425084 426087 426091 407107 396117 395122 392123 388123
      385120 387114 383111 379111 377119 378130 378133 375136
      370140 358145 355147 351146 344144 334137 329133 324131
      320132 312129 304131 299135 295141 292142 289141 284136
      281128 280120 279113 277109 274108 262101 254092 250087
      247084 243083 239081 237078 233071 231069 230065 230061
      232059 236057 241056 250058 257061 261063 265062 272060
      277061 281063 288061 295062 306069 310073 313074 315072
      319061
 0.01 319061 323052 330049 329044 331042 333038 337040 341041
      348037 352034 357029 361024 366017 375007 379002 382001
      384998 386997 389999 394995 399988 406985 412981 413980
      412977 407977 403973 403969 405966 407963 410963 414963
      416966 417968 417973 417977 421975 425974 425969 422962
      419954 419946 423940 424937 428937 432936 435938 438940
      441944 452935 465929 476924 484924 487926 492926 494928
      498927 500924 501920 503909 507903 510896 511892 510890
      509884 511879 514871 518866 522865 524862 537856 540855
      542853 546847 546835 544832 541829 527828 519818 514814
      511809 510797 512788 517782 522778 526776 528774 531771
      531766 529756 525749 519732 519723 519716 520711 520707
      519704 514698 512690 511679 515672 520667
 0.01 491188 490182 488177 485169 482165 478163 469163 464164
      462166 458170 458174 461176 464181 464191 464199 468202
      473203 477202 481200 484196 490190 491188
 0.01 503890 503888 501888 500886 498888 496888 496891 498893
      500893 501893 502893 503890 503890
 0.01 474840 468823 463817 457813 452808 448806 446802 444800
      441800 438799 436801 427800 422804 414807 410807 407810
      395839 389834 387833 385836 379850 378855 378861 379865
      382866 385868 389868 394863 397862 398869 399881 400883
      401890 404896 413897 418903 423906 431909 436907 441907
      450906 455901 457893 460884 461879 461873 464854 464849
      466848 468846 471845 474840
 0.01 448172 446170 445169 444169 445169 444172 446174 448172
 0.01 428707 428702 424702 416704 412710 405708 400705 399697
      400694 399688 398684 395683 388686 384692 382707 380713
      380721 381734 382744 381749 380752 376758 370758 366759
      364757 358754 351755 349754 345754 340750 335745 331739
      326738 322724 320720 315718 313717 309717 304721 301728
      301733 297734 293735 292737 288741 287749 287756 286763
      285766 283767 279767 272766 266767 263771 262776 270781
      260789 255792 251791 254788 258784 258777 255774 252772
      248773 244774 242776 240781 241787 245793 247795 247799
      243803 239811 228785 223786 219792 218798 220804 222811
      223819 223826 224834 225840 228845 239848 243851 249855
      251856 249859 245863 242868 242876 243881 244884 247889
      252902 252910 250915 246920 242923 237932 235938 233946
      232965 233981 234984 238984 245983 253983 260984 264985
      266986 272987 286987 297983 299983 301979 301976 303972
      307964 310960 314958 317958 318952 319948 319944 317937
      314925 314920 312918 312910 312902 313895 318880 321874
      327872 331870 335870 343871 350871 356873 364872 368868
      371860 372853 371849 371844 374839 381828 383823 386818
      404799 409786 412779 413771 415765 415756 415748 414740
      414733 415727 418721 422716 426711 428707
 0.01 399041 398038 394036 391032 390029 388027 381026 375029
      371033 369035 369038 371040 374040 380039 387040 392042
      396042 399041
 0.01 335928 336921 335915 335908 333904 331906 330908 328913
      326917 326924 326928 330930 334930 335928
 0.01 289012 289004 286001 282001 280999 273999 262994 258994
      255992 249992 242991 238993 236996 236000 238005 243016
      247020 252020 263017 269019 276020 287016 289012
 0.01 266835 264833 262832 258830 254829 252826 248823 244821
      242818 241823 240827 242833 246835 249836 253838 259837
      264837 266835
 0.25 540973 539967 538963 536959 534957 528960 523965 519970
      515975 515981 516986 518989 521989 528988 533983 537977
      540973
 0.25 527175 527150 529139 527132 523129 519128 513125 510118
      509110 507099 507089 504083 502080 498078 493076 488081
      484086 479091 468099 460109 455114 451121 445135 441140
      439143 438148 440154 448155 454154 461153 466151 471148
      478146 485145 492147 495148 498150 502157 504166 507172
      511177 516181 521179 525177 527175
 0.25 508024 509019 508014 507008 506002 507996 507988 504982
      497977 484961 473963 466967 458974 450980 446983 443988
      442990 442993 446996 465999 477001 483007 487012 490016
      493019 494026 496035 497041 500041 502037 508024
 0.25 475079 475078 475076 473075 472075 470075 469075 468077
      468078 468080 470082 471083 473082 474081 475079 475079
 0.25 444839 444832 443829 437823 432820 427821 424822 421824
      419827 418837 418846 420856 424860 432859 438855 441849
      444840 444839
 0.25 427008 427004 424002 422003 419006 415008 411009 408012
      406014 404021 407024 411024 415022 418020 421017 425013
      427009 427008
 0.25 396087 397076 396073 392071 382069 374066 369070 367077
      368083 366087 356098 352100 347096 340092 333089 327090
      320092 316092 311090 306086 304084 300084 295088 291094
      287099 288103 290105 294106 298105 302104 305107 309112
      315115 323116 327122 329125 333127 339130 345132 352129
      359127 363124 365114 365109 368106 372102 376097 382094
      386092 391089 396087
 0.25 368809 368802 364802 362807 360810 357813 354817 353822
      354827 360827 363824 366820 367815 368811 368809
 0.25 313758 312747 309741 304742 302751 297765 295771 291776
      284781 279784 276790 275793 271795 263796 257800 256804
      257808 262813 267817 274819 288819 291821 293826 295832
      299838 306840 307833 304825 301819 295816 278803 286806
      293807 296805 297802 301796 308784 310778 312771 313758
 0.25 311856 307848 303845 299849 281858 276862 272866 266874
      263880 261886 260892 261901 264914 264920 262925 255935
      256947 259949 262947 265943 272943 276939 281936 285931
      286927 287918 289911 291905 296895 304886 306882 308875
      310865 311856
 0.25 274087 273085 271083 268081 266080 263078 261078 259078
      255078 255081 257083 259084 262086 264087 267088 271089
      274087
 0.25 241070 240068 239068 238067 238069 238070 240071 241070
 0.50 522165 523157 524150 524142 522138 519138 515141 512142
      508146 508149 509154 512157 515161 518164 522165
 0.50 499121 495112 494106 492104 485106 479106 476108 473109
      470113 468118 469123 467133 476131 480131 484133 488134
      491133 495132 497128 499121
 0.50 345123 345118 345116 344112 342109 341107 337108 336110
      335115 336117 337121 339124 341125 344125 345123
 0.50 306761 304757 301762 299766 299775 297779 293784 290789
      293790 298786 301781 304776 306772 306763 306761
 0.50 301878 302874 301871 299867 294865 288864 281866 278869
      272876 265884 265890 265895 268900 271903 275903 278903
      282900 289894 296887 301878 301878

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
SREF ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IN THE
SHORT TERM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED.
OVERNIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION
FLARES UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER DID FLARE UP OFFSHORE
LAST NIGHT...AND THE WRF-ARW BEING ONE OF THE MORE TRUSTED
MODELS...WE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
NEAR AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME SMALL SCALE INTENSE RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 12Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


...EASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF I-40...

MUCH LIKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ASIDE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE HEAVIER AND MORE GREATLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL OCCUR ON SMALL
SCALES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LESSER DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. ONE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ALONG AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH DEEP LAYER
FORCING WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENCOUNTERING OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST BACK TO
THE SOUTH. A SECOND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE WAS A WEAK CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUM WILL BE FAVORED ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION AND 850-700 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN MORE BY THE HEATING CYCLE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE LOW...FARTHER EAST. THERE WAS NOT MUCH SPECIFIC AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE TO PLACE 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS
ON A 24 HOUR TIME SCALE. WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD
THE 09Z SREF AND LATEST IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHOSE PLACEMENT
MATCHED FAIRLY WELL TO EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO RECEIVED SOME INPUT FROM LOCAL
OFFICES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 473619 484651 489662 494676 496686 495689 495695 494712
      492719 491729 491736 491741 491746 491754 491764 489772
      487780 485785 483789 483794 481808 480816 481828 479848
      476862 474868 473873 474877 481887 483889 484893 484904
      477915 474919 471922 466927 463933 462937 459940 456941
      456947 455955 452962 447972 439982 429990 420995 415996
      413996 412992 412983 413975 416969 418961 414961 408964
      403967 400970 389976 385976 388969 398947 405936 411927
      415921 421917 423915 423909 423900 423880 421873 420867
      418868 414871 409873 404872 399869 391860 385857 381857
      381852 383837 383828 381823 379819 375820 370824 364825
      361825 359823 359819 360816 359808 360801 364797 366794
      367791 368784 368780 370777 373773 376771 379770 387769
      397775 406782 410786 414792 418796 420797 420801 419808
      416813 415816 415820 417825 419827 431833 440839 448848
      455857 459860 462853 464847 467841 466836 464836 460832
      459823 459817 457814 455809 453811 450811 451808 451801
      450796 447789 446780 446773 448765 451759 453752 454745
      454737 455721 456712 457706 460698 459686 458670 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 548167 550155 551149 550143 548136 546133 543131 541129
      538131 534137 526147 521150 518149 515148 502143 494141
      491137 484131 481130 479132 480137 480142 477144 466146
      464147 463152 461162 455166 452168 451171 444186 445193
      447194 449192 449190 452187 458185 468175 473172 477173
      480175 484180 485184 487186 488192 486197 480200 475201
      470204 465207 462209 459210 448213 424220 422222 422224
      427226 428228 426231 416234 415241 417243 419245 424246
      430248 433247 437248 465253 475263 485274 489278 492280
      495283 501287 508289 512285 516279 520269 520261 520251
      520245 522240 526234 530231 534226 537219 539207 541195
      542185 545179 548167
 0.01 504972 504961 504951 500946 496942 487929 479924 475930
      475936 473939 470957 470968 470973 472977 472985 475994
      477997 479997 482997 484995 489978 491980 494980 497980
      500978 504972
 0.01 415066 416061 412059 409056 406053 402051 399053 395055
      395057 399056 404056 407061 408065 410068 414068 415066
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 386056 385051 390050 392050
      394048 389040 388038 385038 383040 381039 378037 378033
      380030 387028 389026 390022 390011 391004 392000 392991
      387990 382996 379004 375010 373017 369023 367030 363039
      362043 359045 353048 349048 345050 343052 339052 334055
      329055 326056 324059 324064 326071 325078 322081 318081
      310079 307078 303076 298077 288076 278074 271071 266068
      255060 244054 238051 233055 232059 233063 238069 246079
      251083 257086 263091 268095 277105 282110 284112 289113
      295117 299122 303126 311127 315126 320126 325122 332119
      336115 342109 345105 347097 352090 356093 360094 359089
      357086 357082 361074 365069 367067 369069 372076 374080
      377083 381081 384078 386077 388079 401078
 0.01 380044 378042 376040 375042 376044 378046 380044
 0.01 376060 375057 374056 372055 370056 368057 370059 371061
      373061 375062 376060
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.01 344788 343781 341777 335773 330772 330770 329757 328751
      326746 325740 323737 318730 313731 311736 309746 309756
      309768 308778 307784 305788 299793 290796 287794 287791
      266793 255794 250795 244797 238802 236810 236815 238818
      239824 241829 247835 254837 265837 269838 273840 286849
      292855 300858 304857 308854 313848 319841 322832 336798
      341792 344788
 0.01 312949 313944 311941 306936 304933 302929 301920 297911
      294905 285893 283890 279889 272890 267896 264903 260920
      260925 262928 266933 270936 272939 275946 275952 274957
      270962 267965 263966 259967 255968 239971 233975 231982
      232990 232996 234999 238005 244009 251011 256011 260010
      264009 267006 270000 271995 273993 279989 285983 289978
      299967 312949
 0.25 534212 535200 533191 525177 522169 518163 507153 498162
      492165 489168 490173 494181 495185 499187 507189 512194
      516200 520208 523216 528220 532218 534212
 0.25 516264 517256 516248 513236 501214 498210 494207 485207
      475211 472215 470218 473220 485224 487226 489228 491234
      492237 489238 484238 476230 467233 464233 462235 460238
      461241 472246 481254 489262 496272 498276 502280 506281
      509275 516264
 0.25 472670 472663 470655 469648 467644 465639 461641 461646
      461653 463660 464665 465672 467677 470678 471676 472670
 0.25 461225 460221 458219 456218 452218 450219 449219 445220
      445222 446224 449226 452225 455224 458225 461225
 0.25 457901 457898 456896 455893 454894 453896 453897 454898
      454901 455903 456901 457901
 0.25 455918 456915 456913 455910 455908 455907 454906 453905
      452906 451906 450907 448908 446910 446911 445913 446916
      447917 447918 448919 450920 452921 453921 454920 455919
      455918
 0.25 445937 446935 446933 446930 445928 445927 443925 442925
      440925 440927 440928 440929 440930 441933 441935 442936
      443937 445937 445937
 0.25 439952 438945 434940 428938 424939 424942 425949 428955
      427961 426968 428970 430968 435966 438959 439952
 0.25 406850 405848 404845 402841 401839 399837 396836 395838
      393840 393843 395846 397848 399850 402850 406850 406850
 0.25 396786 394784 390782 385782 381784 378789 377793 375797
      375800 376802 381800 384798 388796 393794 395791 396786
 0.25 340096 340093 340091 339089 339087 339085 339084 339082
      338081 336082 334083 333084 333086 334088 335090 335091
      335093 336095 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 328105 328101 325097 320097 316098 312100 309102 308109
      309115 310118 315118 319116 321112 322108 326110 328106
      328105
 0.25 325764 324754 323748 321744 318743 317746 316751 315765
      313781 310787 308794 307800 302806 297809 291809 284809
      275810 266812 260813 264817 270819 282823 288825 280826
      277828 278833 282837 286842 290845 296849 302848 307845
      311839 315826 318820 318810 319803 321797 323790 325782
      325764
 0.25 299943 299936 298926 296920 292914 288910 281909 276913
      274915 273919 276924 281929 285941 284948 281956 279961
      277969 280973 284973 286971 292960 296955 299947 299943
 0.25 247998 247996 247994 247992 248990 247988 246986 244984
      242984 240985 239987 239989 239991 239993 239995 240997
      240998 242999 244999 246999 247998
 0.50 531213 531211 532208 532206 532203 532201 532200 530198
      530197 529196 528195 526194 524194 524195 523197 523200
      523203 523205 524208 524210 526212 527213 529215 530215
      531213 316110 315109 314109 315110 316110
 0.50 513255 513249 512244 510237 507232 502222 496213 488211
      482211 478213 478216 480218 484221 489224 492229 497239
      503248 506258 509261 511261 513255
 0.50 518185 518180 518177 514171 511166 506163 501165 498167
      495169 495174 496180 499183 503183 507185 514188 518185
 0.50 503275 501270 500266 494259 491248 489244 485241 482239
      479236 475234 472239 474244 477247 485253 493258 495262
      496267 501275 503275
 0.50 322769 322767 321765 321763 319765 320766 320767 321769
      322769 322769
 0.50 321771 320770 318771 318772 318774 319775 320774 321771
 0.50 320782 319780 318782 318783 317785 316786 316787 315789
      315792 317792 317791 318789 319787 319785 320783 320782
 0.50 308833 307824 303820 301815 291813 280813 278816 283819
      288818 294819 298822 299824 298826 292827 286829 287836
      290839 293843 298846 302844 306839 308833
 0.50 295949 294949 292948 290949 289949 288950 288952 287954
      287955 286956 287958 288958 289958 290956 292954 292953
      293952 294951 295949
 0.50 294933 294931 294929 294926 294924 294923 293922 292921
      291920 290919 288919 286919 286920 286922 286923 287925
      287927 288929 288931 289933 290934 291935 292936 293935
      294934 294933
 1.00 506177 507174 505172 504174 504176 505177 506177
 1.00 301838 302836 301834 300833 299833 297834 297835 295836
      296838 297840 299839 301838 301838

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 011415
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN FLORIDA / SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR...OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 2.42 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN TANDEM WITH REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS WERE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL
AND SOUTHEAST GA...BUT CONCERN WAS LESS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA WHERE THE TAMPA BAY SOUNDING SHOWED LESS MOISTURE
AND POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE TREND IN THE HRRR AND FSL
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WAS TOWARD DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SLOW
MOVING CELLS...THEREFORE...APPEARS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA...AT AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW EXITING OFF THE COAST...AND THE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL WHICH HAD ONCE BEEN ERIKA. HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF MORE SWEEPING CONVECTION FROM THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH FORCING
AND INFLOW DO NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR TRAINING CELLS...A FEW RANDOM
CELL MERGERS IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE
INTENSE SHORT TERM RAIN RATES OVER 2.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 011415
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN FLORIDA / SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR...OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 2.42 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN TANDEM WITH REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS WERE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL
AND SOUTHEAST GA...BUT CONCERN WAS LESS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA WHERE THE TAMPA BAY SOUNDING SHOWED LESS MOISTURE
AND POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE TREND IN THE HRRR AND FSL
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WAS TOWARD DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SLOW
MOVING CELLS...THEREFORE...APPEARS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA...AT AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW EXITING OFF THE COAST...AND THE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL WHICH HAD ONCE BEEN ERIKA. HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF MORE SWEEPING CONVECTION FROM THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH FORCING
AND INFLOW DO NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR TRAINING CELLS...A FEW RANDOM
CELL MERGERS IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE
INTENSE SHORT TERM RAIN RATES OVER 2.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010908
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
507 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.


DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK WAVE
SHOULD BE EMERGING OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS CYCLONE APPEARS
TO BE WHAT REMAINS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. GIVEN ITS
WEAK STATE AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT FAVOR ANY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS RULES OUT THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF
CLUSTER. UTILIZED MORE OF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED
SOMETHING LIGHTER AND MORE OFFSHORE. BESIDES THE EXITING
WAVE...THE USUAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS LOCALLY ENHANCING
AMOUNTS.

TO THE WEST...A VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MX. MODELS SHOW BROAD 850-MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL REACHING THE GULF COAST WILL BE ALONG SEA
BREEZES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONS. IT APPEARS
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF OF MX
WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS DISPLAY
VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BEING MOST CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THUS...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FOR BOTH DAYS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN ACTIVE...YET UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
SUFFICENT DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST A
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ARE THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM ALONG WITH SOME
CAPPING NOTED IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MODEL SPREAD WITH
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO ONE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTION
IN THIS PATTERN. WPC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WHILE TENDED TO WASH OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE
UNCERTAIN.


...NEW ENGLAND...

AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA WHICH
WILL DRAG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIVING SOUTH WHICH
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER NEW ENGLAND BY DAY 3. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR ENOUGH TO FOLLOW SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW TAKE
WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z GFS TENDED TO DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN
SOLUTION WHICH DID NOT SEEM TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. DID INCORPORATE A PORTION OF ITS OUTPUT INTO THE
MIX. AS USUAL...THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL SENSE
TO IT WITH THE COVERAGE WANING OVERNIGHT. HOW THIS CONVECTION
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE TO BETTER ORGANIZE ANY
ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA EMERGING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. TENDED TO BROAD BRUSH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAINFALL GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO WA/OR/ID WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THE JET LEVEL...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTOR OF THE 100
KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WHICH SHOULD SUPPLY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL WIND/MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.50 T0 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...THE PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES. WHILE THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ACTUAL QPF OUTPUT WAS RATHER SIMILAR.
ENDED UP FAVORING THE 27-KM 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO HANDLE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN MORE ADEQUATELY.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537207 538201 536193 533187 531181 530175 527169
      521161 517156 514152 509149 504148 504154 503157 501156
      492160 487163 486169 489173 490176 491180 490190 487196
      484200 480203 472209 463213 453216 444216 438219 435223
      433225 433229 438231 446227 455225 441241 442248 443250
      446251 449249 455249 466248 469248 471250 476254 483262
      487266 489270 496283 497285 500287 503288 505286 510284
      513280 518268 520260 520251 516239 512229 505218 502213
      500206 502202 507202 520218 524220 526223 530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957 472967
      472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 487005 491995
      492987
 0.01 483854 483838 483828 480823 475818 471821 470826 458868
      452882 449884 448881 446876 443868 440858 436854 434849
      430843 423838 415834 413832 412828 408826 405826 403821
      402815 400810 398804 395801 397798 399793 398788 395785
      389786 385788 379795 372800 366806 362812 357817 352823
      347829 344838 343842 346845 352844 355839 359830 364823
      377812 380809 383809 385812 384815 382819 381824 381830
      384839 385844 381847 379850 377854 375864 375869 377871
      376875 375879 373882 374889 377892 380890 388889 392887
      402885 410880 413878 416877 421884 432901 434904 436910
      438917 436923 434927 431930 424934 419935 416936 410942
      405946 401952 395958 391970 383990 386000 387003 386006
      383008 371018 365024 363027 359029 355033 349038 342043
      333047 327050 325053 325057 336058 338056 341058 343059
      344064 342069 340073 331076 327078 321078 311077 303076
      298075 291073 282071 279071 276069 271068 257060 250055
      248054 245054 237056 235059 234063 236068 239070 246078
      260088 263092 267093 278095 288097 295104 300110 304112
      308113 313114 316113 327114 342112 354100 357097 359092
      357087 356079 357072 360069 362068 364070 367073 375090
      376094 381093 384092 389093 392098 392102 385109 380114
      378117 380120 384122 390118 397115 403109 406106 408102
      407100 403099 399096 401085 408079 414075 417067 416062
      413057 411054 405053 393052 388051 385049 381046 379042
      384036 392032 394030 395027 402009 404004 407002 411997
      416996 425993 429991 431988 454959 457937 459932 459927
      460915 470900 478882 481867 483854
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 304795 303801 300805
      291806 285806 275801 269798 262797 255799 250802 250810
      253815 257819 259825 262831 262838 262846 265850 271853
      276855 284855 290856 296858 302859 306856 309852 313837
      314830 316824 321812 324807 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 240005 250010 256010 262007 267004 270001 286993
      292989 296985 300980 303975 310966 317956 321950 322945
      321941 319939 316935 305929 300926 295924 289922 284925
      280929 274931 266939 260943 255945 243949 237957 232971
      231973 232976 233979 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499172 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516254 515247 511236 499219 494209 488207 485207
      479209 475211 472216 471219 476219 482221 487223 491225
      495237 500245 502251 502254 499255 493246 489242 486242
      485246 485250 486256 491266 497275 499280 502282 505282
      508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 434957 434954 433952 431951 430950 428951 427952 426953
      426954 425956 425959 424961 424962 426963 428962 429961
      430961 431959 432959 433957 434957
 0.25 318800 316796 312798 308801 304807 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 286941 283943 277948 271954 265958
      262962 261966 260972 263974 268975 273974 281971 285968
      286966 290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 511263 513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505278 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273835
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 476624 481624 487629 490633 492641 494647 496657
      498663 499673 501688 503705 505725 506734 505741 506750
      505755 503770 500780 494789 490793 487797 482806 478820
      474830 468836 463836 460832 457828 455823 452816 452808
      453802 451797 449793 446793 441793 438789 436789 436792
      437809 434812 429812 426810 424805 422797 421789 420781
      421775 424771 427768 430763 431756 431742 438720 439714
      442711 447709 452705 454700 459696 459683 458669 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 527250 527244 524242 522240 524237 526233 531229 534226
      536221 539211 541198 542189 543183 547172 549162 551146
      548137 546133 543131 541129 538131 533138 528144 522149
      518149 515147 505144 498142 494140 492137 491134 492129
      494125 498115 502107 507102 509094 509090 507080 504078
      502078 498085 495090 492091 486098 480104 476111 472118
      469121 465124 460127 455134 445145 443150 443155 443162
      444167 443179 446183 444188 444192 446194 448193 451188
      457185 464179 470173 477173 484178 485183 488187 488193
      486197 480200 475201 471203 466207 451212 424220 425232
      416234 415238 417243 420246 425247 429248 433247 437249
      439253 442260 451263 460262 465263 470264 475270 484286
      492300 495302 499303 503302 506300 508295 510290 512285
      514282 518275 521269
 0.01 509924 508909 505899 505892 506888 504880 499873 492871
      475867 468865 460861 455856 451850 447838 443830 438824
      435823 430823 427824 424827 422829 420827 419825 420823
      422819 421813 420809 420804 420800 417796 414793 411793
      408790 406786 402778 395773 388770 383765 374767 369773
      366777 362779 359781 356786 357794 359805 360811 359817
      358822 360825 368825 375820 380819 384820 384825 380827
      378830 378834 379841 381843 387849 390851 393852 402851
      408850 407854 405859 404864 405871 406874 410882 415889
      416895 416902 412921 411926 410931 405940 398954 385965
      381972 380976 380981 380988 382991 389996 399998 405996
      410991 416985 423971 443943 449937 449931 450925 456921
      463919 472918 482918 490922 496927 504934 507929 509924
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 401078 401072 399071 393066 389061 386058 386056 389054
      371037 368034 366036 362042 357046 354048 350048 343052
      340051 336053 332055 328055 326056 323054 318050 314047
      312048 310055 310060 311063 316069 317078 314080 312079
      303076 286074 274068 261061 249052 234031 231031 228034
      226042 224062 225067 226071 229077 237086 250095 255100
      259104 264110 270114 278116 285116 289115 294116 299122
      300125 305127 313127 321126 324125 328127 334128 339125
      340130 342131 345132 348129 349122 352119 354117 353115
      348110 346102 347097 348094 352089 356082 358074 365059
      372056 375057 375062 369063 367066 369068 372076 373080
      375084 377085 380082 385077 390080 394079 397080 401078
 0.01 374722 372707 371702 368697 363691 355689 346689 340691
      336693 330695 327698 320704 313711 309710 302712 298717
      297722 298728 299742 299747 299754 298766 294773 291778
      288780 285784 281787 278789 272790 264790 255787 250786
      243786 239789 238792 239801 237804 236810 236815 238820
      241830 242834 244837 250843 257852 258865 257868 255868
      250868 242873 239876 236880 233887 230896 230907 231914
      232919 231930 231944 231957 232961 233968 232979 230989
      232998 235002 238005 242008 247010 252011 258011 262009
      265006 270998 275993 279991 282987 286985 289981 293978
      295974 297970 299966 300960 302956 302942 305932 305919
      304914 303910 302898 303883 303878 306872 307861 307854
      310851 316843 323828 327818 331809 335799 337795 341792
      343789 344784 353778 357772 358768 358761 356756 352753
      358747 366739 370732 373727 374722
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 515261 515252 515246 513244 511237 507230 505222 502216
      499211 495208 492209 485209 480209 474212 470218 469220
      472223 479224 485225 489229 492236 496241 500247 502250
      500253 495249 493243 488238 485237 482234 480231 477229
      472230 467232 462235 457241 457244 460247 467249 475252
      487258 491260 493262 496269 500275 505279 507276 505267
      506261 508262 513264 515261
 0.25 479691 478676 476661 474647 472643 468640 464639 461641
      461646 461653 463668 466680 468684 470690 473703 474716
      473721 471726 468729 467734 466747 465759 467766 468768
      470766 473756 475745 478724 479712 479698 479691
 0.25 462226 463223 462221 461219 459218 457218 456218 454217
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455223 457224
      458225 460225 462226 462226
 0.25 470155 471152 469148 468147 465147 462148 461151 460153
      459158 459160 463162 464161 466159 468157 470155
 0.25 466717 465712 462715 460719 458724 456728 455732 454738
      455742 458741 461738 463733 464727 465722 466717
 0.25 468890 469885 467883 463879 455871 450860 442850 439844
      435844 433852 433861 432866 428864 423867 421874 424890
      424899 423907 420921 418938 419941 423942 428940 432936
      435930 441919 446906 446901 444898 441893 440891 441887
      444886 447886 451890 454895 458900 462900 467896 468890
 0.25 410961 411959 410958 410956 409955 407956 405957 404959
      403959 402961 402962 401963 400966 400968 401970 402971
      403972 405971 406970 407970 408968 409968 410966 410963
      410962 410961
 0.25 396789 394784 391783 387782 381784 379787 377792 376796
      374801 377802 379801 383799 386797 391795 395792 396789
 0.25 340098 341093 340091 339087 340082 338080 336079 333079
      332081 332084 332088 333092 334095 336097 338098 340098
 0.25 329766 328756 327747 323742 321741 316741 314747 313754
      311761 309769 307775 304780 299785 294788 284796 283798
      281803 281805 276807 268807 262809 261813 263816 268820
      280823 283825 285827 280832 280836 282839 285843 294852
      299852 300849 302843 309831 312826 316822 319814 320807
      325795 327787 328780 328772 329766
 0.25 330105 330099 325096 318094 314096 309099 307100 306104
      308109 310115 314118 320118 324113 328110 330105
 0.25 289100 290094 289091 286085 279080 274075 269072 262069
      256065 250061 245057 238053 235053 232055 231063 234068
      239074 249083 262090 272098 279102 283102 287102 289100
 0.25 287941 287924 287915 286908 285899 283893 279888 274884
      270881 265880 259882 254885 249889 245893 241897 238902
      237909 236916 237934 241962 242970 240976 237981 235987
      236994 239998 245997 248996 249992 248985 252982 261976
      270968 275966 279962 283957 285952 287941
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525192 523192
      520191 521194 522198 523203 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502233 502228 500222 498219 495215 491213 487214 483214
      482217 485220 489223 492227 494230 496234 500235 502233
 0.50 487251 488247 486243 485242 482239 480238 478235 477235
      474237 472239 473242 474245 477248 479249 482251 485252
      487251
 0.50 436909 437902 434897 432894 430894 429897 429900 429907
      427912 426916 425921 426927 429928 432926 434921 435916
      436910 436909
 0.50 322791 323781 322776 319774 316774 315776 310781 307786
      300789 295792 290797 288802 289805 289809 278811 276814
      277818 283820 289821 296823 301826 304825 306823 313812
      317807 319800 322791
 0.50 279092 278087 275083 273078 269075 260072 251066 242062
      238062 240066 247074 254080 262085 270091 274094 278094
      279092
 0.50 279921 280912 279902 276896 273891 268888 264888 262889
      253897 244906 242912 241921 241930 242939 245944 250949
      256950 263949 269947 271944 272939 274933 276927 279921
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176
 1.00 316796 316791 313790 310792 308794 306795 303797 302800
      303804 304806 307806 310805 312803 313800 315798 316796
 1.00 259913 260911 259909 258909 257908 255909 253909 251911
      250913 249913 250914 250915 251917 253918 255918 256917
      257916 258915 259914 259913

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541195 540180 539172 537165 533154 530129 526127
      521128 517127 513124 510120 508115 516109 519106 522100
      524094 524085 524080 522074 520070 517069 513072 511069
      512065 516054 517048 518044 516030 513026 509022 502015
      496013 491015 488017 484022 483027 479039 476051 474057
      474066 473074 472084 466094 460099 457102 455102 453100
      451094 449093 438090 436095 435095 431094 431096 432101
      431109 433114 438117 442122 443127 440127 438129 437135
      436138 436143 435147 434153 435158 438162 442164 447173
      451177 452178 454177 457173 458168 459165 463162 472161
      476158 479159 480162 484166 483173 487182 489195 485201
      482203 478206 473207 467211 460215 451215 446217 440217
      444225 448227 453226 455228 455231 450232 441236 435243
      428247 427254 429258 433263 435269 439277 441282 445286
      448289 453290 460290 464289 470284 475276 478269 482273
      486277 489283 493290 495296 499295 504284 509284 512280
      520266 523262 525254 528237 530226 534223 539210
 0.01 485884 484876 481872 469868 465867 463866 460863 459858
      458846 455839 450835 448833 445833 438825 436822 436817
      435811 436806 441801 444793 445786 445779 446761 450744
      453726 452718 449711 446706 442703 434704 431705 429702
      424700 415703 403706 400706 398708 396715 396724 394731
      393734 394740 398747 402752 407756 411757 411763 408769
      404776 399781 397783 395782 394780 393773 389769 380770
      375774 373776 369777 366774 366768 364758 362755 358754
      352755 349754 345754 338751 332748 329744 326739 322724
      319719 314717 308718 303722 301728 301733 297734 293735
      290738 287744 285772 280777 274781 268783 263787 253793
      244801 241809 242817 246822 248823 250826 254830 259832
      265834 268834 270837 273841 278844 285848 292847 296853
      298859 300867 300876 302883 303886 306889 308891 313891
      319887 322881 323874 323865 322857 320849 318844 310833
      309825 310820 312820 317815 321810 328798 332794 337788
      343786 346786 349788 351794 352804 353813 349821 347827
      345830 346836 346842 352844 360843 364838 385825 390829
      387836 387844 388853 390861 393866 400878 404883 409885
      412893 413903 415910 419917 425917 430917 433914 436909
      439907 443906 453905 458901 460896 462893 477892 482887
      485884
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 431994 432982 431975 430970 429965 426961 419954 419949
      417947 414945 410945 405945 402947 396954 387970 386975
      384980 382984 378987 375987 373991 371996 368998 363004
      363016 366020 366023 364025 358031 353036 345043 333051
      327055 325057 326059 324063 324067 322070 318073 314074
      303073 298074 292074 283073 275070 268066 261059 248051
      243050 240050 233055 227059 226060 226066 230073 237079
      248089 260102 267107 273111 281115 288119 294123 298126
      302127 308128 312131 316131 322130 334132 342136 347137
      351133 354132 358133 364133 366130 370121 373116 376112
      384111 390114 398111 400106 404103 410099 414091 415083
      412079 405074 404071 407068 413064 411053 411048 406044
      401041 397043 392043 391040 395037 399035 403035 407033
      408028 409024 407020 406016 405013 408012 416010 422008
      426004 429999 431994
 0.01 371082 371079 370077 370075 369073 367073 365072 364074
      364076 363077 362078 362081 363083 364085 364086 366087
      368088 369086 370084 371082
 0.01 303933 298889 297885 297879 298874 296870 295866 293863
      291859 287856 279856 274855 269853 261852 256854 249859
      244865 242869 242874 244883 238888 234895 231905 230909
      230914 230925 231937 232941 232946 231955 232964 234975
      232984 232995 236002 243006 249007 251005 255998 260991
      266985 272980 279976 285972 290966 294959 296949 300940
      303933
 0.25 528183 529177 529171 528163 526154 526144 525139 524136
      518135 513137 507138 501141 499152 499157 497160 493165
      493172 495179 505187 515198 520202 522202 523197 525186
      528183
 0.25 503233 505230 504226 503220 502217 499213 495212 492214
      488217 486217 485220 487224 492226 495230 498233 503233
      503233
 0.25 498263 499257 497252 493246 490239 486238 484238 482239
      480236 478233 476233 473234 470238 467245 466247 468249
      472250 480253 486257 490258 493261 496264 498263
 0.25 498113 499106 499100 495098 492099 485105 483106 478105
      472104 468104 465107 461115 456121 450139 448144 445147
      445152 447155 453159 453156 456155 459155 464154 467152
      469147 471144 474142 482143 486142 489142 490144 492144
      493137 491133 491128 495120 498113
 0.25 436715 437712 435711 434712 433713 432716 434717 436715
      436715
 0.25 433873 433865 431859 428847 424836 421832 417828 413826
      408826 404829 402834 400840 400846 399854 400862 403866
      407870 411873 416875 420876 423879 426880 429879 432876
      433873
 0.25 402984 403982 403979 401978 400979 398981 397982 396983
      396984 395986 395988 396990 398989 399989 400989 401986
      401985 402984
 0.25 348125 348122 347119 345117 343116 341113 338112 337115
      336117 334121 335125 337127 339128 342129 344129 347127
      348125
 0.25 323780 324771 323767 322762 315753 309741 307741 304742
      303747 302753 299760 294770 291775 288780 281788 278792
      273796 271798 272801 269804 263805 256807 255810 260813
      264816 270817 281820 286821 289820 291818 290814 288812
      284810 278808 276807 278805 289804 301800 306797 312796
      317793 321789 323780
 0.25 305089 303085 297086 294088 290088 283082 276078 268074
      262070 255063 248058 245057 239058 233063 232067 234071
      237073 241075 248079 255085 267096 273102 281105 284105
      288102 295098 300092 305089
 0.25 290912 290905 290897 289892 287886 286880 283875 280871
      276869 266867 262869 258872 249890 242897 240901 238907
      238912 238920 240925 240932 239942 240948 243953 243958
      245964 248965 251965 255962 272952 276950 279946 283936
      287926 290914 290912
 0.25 245992 245990 245988 244987 242986 241986 240985 240986
      239987 239988 239989 240992 242993 244993 245992
 0.50 523168 523160 523155 523147 521142 517141 513142 509144
      506148 506151 507156 511160 514163 517166 521169 523168
 0.50 481127 480122 477118 472116 468117 466122 464127 461131
      461135 464136 469135 472134 476132 479130 481127
 0.50 419856 420851 419846 418842 416840 414838 412838 411839
      409843 409845 408849 407852 407857 409859 412861 415860
      417858 419856
 0.50 319774 317763 311758 307756 303757 299764 297774 293782
      288789 287793 290797 298796 306793 314787 318780 319774
 0.50 279092 279086 275082 267077 259072 253065 246061 243061
      241062 239068 249072 255079 262086 269092 274094 278093
      279092
 0.50 284904 283895 281887 276882 269880 265882 263884 258890
      247899 244904 243913 246920 246927 248935 252941 254942
      259943 266939 270935 274929 279923 282916 284909 284904

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010908
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
507 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.


DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK WAVE
SHOULD BE EMERGING OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS CYCLONE APPEARS
TO BE WHAT REMAINS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. GIVEN ITS
WEAK STATE AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT FAVOR ANY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS RULES OUT THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF
CLUSTER. UTILIZED MORE OF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED
SOMETHING LIGHTER AND MORE OFFSHORE. BESIDES THE EXITING
WAVE...THE USUAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS LOCALLY ENHANCING
AMOUNTS.

TO THE WEST...A VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MX. MODELS SHOW BROAD 850-MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL REACHING THE GULF COAST WILL BE ALONG SEA
BREEZES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONS. IT APPEARS
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF OF MX
WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS DISPLAY
VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BEING MOST CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THUS...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FOR BOTH DAYS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN ACTIVE...YET UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
SUFFICENT DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST A
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ARE THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM ALONG WITH SOME
CAPPING NOTED IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MODEL SPREAD WITH
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO ONE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTION
IN THIS PATTERN. WPC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WHILE TENDED TO WASH OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE
UNCERTAIN.


...NEW ENGLAND...

AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA WHICH
WILL DRAG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIVING SOUTH WHICH
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER NEW ENGLAND BY DAY 3. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR ENOUGH TO FOLLOW SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW TAKE
WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z GFS TENDED TO DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN
SOLUTION WHICH DID NOT SEEM TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. DID INCORPORATE A PORTION OF ITS OUTPUT INTO THE
MIX. AS USUAL...THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL SENSE
TO IT WITH THE COVERAGE WANING OVERNIGHT. HOW THIS CONVECTION
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE TO BETTER ORGANIZE ANY
ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA EMERGING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. TENDED TO BROAD BRUSH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAINFALL GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO WA/OR/ID WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THE JET LEVEL...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTOR OF THE 100
KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WHICH SHOULD SUPPLY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL WIND/MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.50 T0 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...THE PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES. WHILE THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ACTUAL QPF OUTPUT WAS RATHER SIMILAR.
ENDED UP FAVORING THE 27-KM 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO HANDLE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN MORE ADEQUATELY.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537207 538201 536193 533187 531181 530175 527169
      521161 517156 514152 509149 504148 504154 503157 501156
      492160 487163 486169 489173 490176 491180 490190 487196
      484200 480203 472209 463213 453216 444216 438219 435223
      433225 433229 438231 446227 455225 441241 442248 443250
      446251 449249 455249 466248 469248 471250 476254 483262
      487266 489270 496283 497285 500287 503288 505286 510284
      513280 518268 520260 520251 516239 512229 505218 502213
      500206 502202 507202 520218 524220 526223 530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957 472967
      472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 487005 491995
      492987
 0.01 483854 483838 483828 480823 475818 471821 470826 458868
      452882 449884 448881 446876 443868 440858 436854 434849
      430843 423838 415834 413832 412828 408826 405826 403821
      402815 400810 398804 395801 397798 399793 398788 395785
      389786 385788 379795 372800 366806 362812 357817 352823
      347829 344838 343842 346845 352844 355839 359830 364823
      377812 380809 383809 385812 384815 382819 381824 381830
      384839 385844 381847 379850 377854 375864 375869 377871
      376875 375879 373882 374889 377892 380890 388889 392887
      402885 410880 413878 416877 421884 432901 434904 436910
      438917 436923 434927 431930 424934 419935 416936 410942
      405946 401952 395958 391970 383990 386000 387003 386006
      383008 371018 365024 363027 359029 355033 349038 342043
      333047 327050 325053 325057 336058 338056 341058 343059
      344064 342069 340073 331076 327078 321078 311077 303076
      298075 291073 282071 279071 276069 271068 257060 250055
      248054 245054 237056 235059 234063 236068 239070 246078
      260088 263092 267093 278095 288097 295104 300110 304112
      308113 313114 316113 327114 342112 354100 357097 359092
      357087 356079 357072 360069 362068 364070 367073 375090
      376094 381093 384092 389093 392098 392102 385109 380114
      378117 380120 384122 390118 397115 403109 406106 408102
      407100 403099 399096 401085 408079 414075 417067 416062
      413057 411054 405053 393052 388051 385049 381046 379042
      384036 392032 394030 395027 402009 404004 407002 411997
      416996 425993 429991 431988 454959 457937 459932 459927
      460915 470900 478882 481867 483854
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 304795 303801 300805
      291806 285806 275801 269798 262797 255799 250802 250810
      253815 257819 259825 262831 262838 262846 265850 271853
      276855 284855 290856 296858 302859 306856 309852 313837
      314830 316824 321812 324807 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 240005 250010 256010 262007 267004 270001 286993
      292989 296985 300980 303975 310966 317956 321950 322945
      321941 319939 316935 305929 300926 295924 289922 284925
      280929 274931 266939 260943 255945 243949 237957 232971
      231973 232976 233979 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499172 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516254 515247 511236 499219 494209 488207 485207
      479209 475211 472216 471219 476219 482221 487223 491225
      495237 500245 502251 502254 499255 493246 489242 486242
      485246 485250 486256 491266 497275 499280 502282 505282
      508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 434957 434954 433952 431951 430950 428951 427952 426953
      426954 425956 425959 424961 424962 426963 428962 429961
      430961 431959 432959 433957 434957
 0.25 318800 316796 312798 308801 304807 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 286941 283943 277948 271954 265958
      262962 261966 260972 263974 268975 273974 281971 285968
      286966 290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 511263 513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505278 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273835
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 476624 481624 487629 490633 492641 494647 496657
      498663 499673 501688 503705 505725 506734 505741 506750
      505755 503770 500780 494789 490793 487797 482806 478820
      474830 468836 463836 460832 457828 455823 452816 452808
      453802 451797 449793 446793 441793 438789 436789 436792
      437809 434812 429812 426810 424805 422797 421789 420781
      421775 424771 427768 430763 431756 431742 438720 439714
      442711 447709 452705 454700 459696 459683 458669 454653
      452647 450640 451627
 0.01 527250 527244 524242 522240 524237 526233 531229 534226
      536221 539211 541198 542189 543183 547172 549162 551146
      548137 546133 543131 541129 538131 533138 528144 522149
      518149 515147 505144 498142 494140 492137 491134 492129
      494125 498115 502107 507102 509094 509090 507080 504078
      502078 498085 495090 492091 486098 480104 476111 472118
      469121 465124 460127 455134 445145 443150 443155 443162
      444167 443179 446183 444188 444192 446194 448193 451188
      457185 464179 470173 477173 484178 485183 488187 488193
      486197 480200 475201 471203 466207 451212 424220 425232
      416234 415238 417243 420246 425247 429248 433247 437249
      439253 442260 451263 460262 465263 470264 475270 484286
      492300 495302 499303 503302 506300 508295 510290 512285
      514282 518275 521269
 0.01 509924 508909 505899 505892 506888 504880 499873 492871
      475867 468865 460861 455856 451850 447838 443830 438824
      435823 430823 427824 424827 422829 420827 419825 420823
      422819 421813 420809 420804 420800 417796 414793 411793
      408790 406786 402778 395773 388770 383765 374767 369773
      366777 362779 359781 356786 357794 359805 360811 359817
      358822 360825 368825 375820 380819 384820 384825 380827
      378830 378834 379841 381843 387849 390851 393852 402851
      408850 407854 405859 404864 405871 406874 410882 415889
      416895 416902 412921 411926 410931 405940 398954 385965
      381972 380976 380981 380988 382991 389996 399998 405996
      410991 416985 423971 443943 449937 449931 450925 456921
      463919 472918 482918 490922 496927 504934 507929 509924
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 474944 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969
      486975 489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 401078 401072 399071 393066 389061 386058 386056 389054
      371037 368034 366036 362042 357046 354048 350048 343052
      340051 336053 332055 328055 326056 323054 318050 314047
      312048 310055 310060 311063 316069 317078 314080 312079
      303076 286074 274068 261061 249052 234031 231031 228034
      226042 224062 225067 226071 229077 237086 250095 255100
      259104 264110 270114 278116 285116 289115 294116 299122
      300125 305127 313127 321126 324125 328127 334128 339125
      340130 342131 345132 348129 349122 352119 354117 353115
      348110 346102 347097 348094 352089 356082 358074 365059
      372056 375057 375062 369063 367066 369068 372076 373080
      375084 377085 380082 385077 390080 394079 397080 401078
 0.01 374722 372707 371702 368697 363691 355689 346689 340691
      336693 330695 327698 320704 313711 309710 302712 298717
      297722 298728 299742 299747 299754 298766 294773 291778
      288780 285784 281787 278789 272790 264790 255787 250786
      243786 239789 238792 239801 237804 236810 236815 238820
      241830 242834 244837 250843 257852 258865 257868 255868
      250868 242873 239876 236880 233887 230896 230907 231914
      232919 231930 231944 231957 232961 233968 232979 230989
      232998 235002 238005 242008 247010 252011 258011 262009
      265006 270998 275993 279991 282987 286985 289981 293978
      295974 297970 299966 300960 302956 302942 305932 305919
      304914 303910 302898 303883 303878 306872 307861 307854
      310851 316843 323828 327818 331809 335799 337795 341792
      343789 344784 353778 357772 358768 358761 356756 352753
      358747 366739 370732 373727 374722
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340904 335901 328902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      339937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 515261 515252 515246 513244 511237 507230 505222 502216
      499211 495208 492209 485209 480209 474212 470218 469220
      472223 479224 485225 489229 492236 496241 500247 502250
      500253 495249 493243 488238 485237 482234 480231 477229
      472230 467232 462235 457241 457244 460247 467249 475252
      487258 491260 493262 496269 500275 505279 507276 505267
      506261 508262 513264 515261
 0.25 479691 478676 476661 474647 472643 468640 464639 461641
      461646 461653 463668 466680 468684 470690 473703 474716
      473721 471726 468729 467734 466747 465759 467766 468768
      470766 473756 475745 478724 479712 479698 479691
 0.25 462226 463223 462221 461219 459218 457218 456218 454217
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455223 457224
      458225 460225 462226 462226
 0.25 470155 471152 469148 468147 465147 462148 461151 460153
      459158 459160 463162 464161 466159 468157 470155
 0.25 466717 465712 462715 460719 458724 456728 455732 454738
      455742 458741 461738 463733 464727 465722 466717
 0.25 468890 469885 467883 463879 455871 450860 442850 439844
      435844 433852 433861 432866 428864 423867 421874 424890
      424899 423907 420921 418938 419941 423942 428940 432936
      435930 441919 446906 446901 444898 441893 440891 441887
      444886 447886 451890 454895 458900 462900 467896 468890
 0.25 410961 411959 410958 410956 409955 407956 405957 404959
      403959 402961 402962 401963 400966 400968 401970 402971
      403972 405971 406970 407970 408968 409968 410966 410963
      410962 410961
 0.25 396789 394784 391783 387782 381784 379787 377792 376796
      374801 377802 379801 383799 386797 391795 395792 396789
 0.25 340098 341093 340091 339087 340082 338080 336079 333079
      332081 332084 332088 333092 334095 336097 338098 340098
 0.25 329766 328756 327747 323742 321741 316741 314747 313754
      311761 309769 307775 304780 299785 294788 284796 283798
      281803 281805 276807 268807 262809 261813 263816 268820
      280823 283825 285827 280832 280836 282839 285843 294852
      299852 300849 302843 309831 312826 316822 319814 320807
      325795 327787 328780 328772 329766
 0.25 330105 330099 325096 318094 314096 309099 307100 306104
      308109 310115 314118 320118 324113 328110 330105
 0.25 289100 290094 289091 286085 279080 274075 269072 262069
      256065 250061 245057 238053 235053 232055 231063 234068
      239074 249083 262090 272098 279102 283102 287102 289100
 0.25 287941 287924 287915 286908 285899 283893 279888 274884
      270881 265880 259882 254885 249889 245893 241897 238902
      237909 236916 237934 241962 242970 240976 237981 235987
      236994 239998 245997 248996 249992 248985 252982 261976
      270968 275966 279962 283957 285952 287941
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525192 523192
      520191 521194 522198 523203 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502233 502228 500222 498219 495215 491213 487214 483214
      482217 485220 489223 492227 494230 496234 500235 502233
 0.50 487251 488247 486243 485242 482239 480238 478235 477235
      474237 472239 473242 474245 477248 479249 482251 485252
      487251
 0.50 436909 437902 434897 432894 430894 429897 429900 429907
      427912 426916 425921 426927 429928 432926 434921 435916
      436910 436909
 0.50 322791 323781 322776 319774 316774 315776 310781 307786
      300789 295792 290797 288802 289805 289809 278811 276814
      277818 283820 289821 296823 301826 304825 306823 313812
      317807 319800 322791
 0.50 279092 278087 275083 273078 269075 260072 251066 242062
      238062 240066 247074 254080 262085 270091 274094 278094
      279092
 0.50 279921 280912 279902 276896 273891 268888 264888 262889
      253897 244906 242912 241921 241930 242939 245944 250949
      256950 263949 269947 271944 272939 274933 276927 279921
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176
 1.00 316796 316791 313790 310792 308794 306795 303797 302800
      303804 304806 307806 310805 312803 313800 315798 316796
 1.00 259913 260911 259909 258909 257908 255909 253909 251911
      250913 249913 250914 250915 251917 253918 255918 256917
      257916 258915 259914 259913

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541195 540180 539172 537165 533154 530129 526127
      521128 517127 513124 510120 508115 516109 519106 522100
      524094 524085 524080 522074 520070 517069 513072 511069
      512065 516054 517048 518044 516030 513026 509022 502015
      496013 491015 488017 484022 483027 479039 476051 474057
      474066 473074 472084 466094 460099 457102 455102 453100
      451094 449093 438090 436095 435095 431094 431096 432101
      431109 433114 438117 442122 443127 440127 438129 437135
      436138 436143 435147 434153 435158 438162 442164 447173
      451177 452178 454177 457173 458168 459165 463162 472161
      476158 479159 480162 484166 483173 487182 489195 485201
      482203 478206 473207 467211 460215 451215 446217 440217
      444225 448227 453226 455228 455231 450232 441236 435243
      428247 427254 429258 433263 435269 439277 441282 445286
      448289 453290 460290 464289 470284 475276 478269 482273
      486277 489283 493290 495296 499295 504284 509284 512280
      520266 523262 525254 528237 530226 534223 539210
 0.01 485884 484876 481872 469868 465867 463866 460863 459858
      458846 455839 450835 448833 445833 438825 436822 436817
      435811 436806 441801 444793 445786 445779 446761 450744
      453726 452718 449711 446706 442703 434704 431705 429702
      424700 415703 403706 400706 398708 396715 396724 394731
      393734 394740 398747 402752 407756 411757 411763 408769
      404776 399781 397783 395782 394780 393773 389769 380770
      375774 373776 369777 366774 366768 364758 362755 358754
      352755 349754 345754 338751 332748 329744 326739 322724
      319719 314717 308718 303722 301728 301733 297734 293735
      290738 287744 285772 280777 274781 268783 263787 253793
      244801 241809 242817 246822 248823 250826 254830 259832
      265834 268834 270837 273841 278844 285848 292847 296853
      298859 300867 300876 302883 303886 306889 308891 313891
      319887 322881 323874 323865 322857 320849 318844 310833
      309825 310820 312820 317815 321810 328798 332794 337788
      343786 346786 349788 351794 352804 353813 349821 347827
      345830 346836 346842 352844 360843 364838 385825 390829
      387836 387844 388853 390861 393866 400878 404883 409885
      412893 413903 415910 419917 425917 430917 433914 436909
      439907 443906 453905 458901 460896 462893 477892 482887
      485884
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 431994 432982 431975 430970 429965 426961 419954 419949
      417947 414945 410945 405945 402947 396954 387970 386975
      384980 382984 378987 375987 373991 371996 368998 363004
      363016 366020 366023 364025 358031 353036 345043 333051
      327055 325057 326059 324063 324067 322070 318073 314074
      303073 298074 292074 283073 275070 268066 261059 248051
      243050 240050 233055 227059 226060 226066 230073 237079
      248089 260102 267107 273111 281115 288119 294123 298126
      302127 308128 312131 316131 322130 334132 342136 347137
      351133 354132 358133 364133 366130 370121 373116 376112
      384111 390114 398111 400106 404103 410099 414091 415083
      412079 405074 404071 407068 413064 411053 411048 406044
      401041 397043 392043 391040 395037 399035 403035 407033
      408028 409024 407020 406016 405013 408012 416010 422008
      426004 429999 431994
 0.01 371082 371079 370077 370075 369073 367073 365072 364074
      364076 363077 362078 362081 363083 364085 364086 366087
      368088 369086 370084 371082
 0.01 303933 298889 297885 297879 298874 296870 295866 293863
      291859 287856 279856 274855 269853 261852 256854 249859
      244865 242869 242874 244883 238888 234895 231905 230909
      230914 230925 231937 232941 232946 231955 232964 234975
      232984 232995 236002 243006 249007 251005 255998 260991
      266985 272980 279976 285972 290966 294959 296949 300940
      303933
 0.25 528183 529177 529171 528163 526154 526144 525139 524136
      518135 513137 507138 501141 499152 499157 497160 493165
      493172 495179 505187 515198 520202 522202 523197 525186
      528183
 0.25 503233 505230 504226 503220 502217 499213 495212 492214
      488217 486217 485220 487224 492226 495230 498233 503233
      503233
 0.25 498263 499257 497252 493246 490239 486238 484238 482239
      480236 478233 476233 473234 470238 467245 466247 468249
      472250 480253 486257 490258 493261 496264 498263
 0.25 498113 499106 499100 495098 492099 485105 483106 478105
      472104 468104 465107 461115 456121 450139 448144 445147
      445152 447155 453159 453156 456155 459155 464154 467152
      469147 471144 474142 482143 486142 489142 490144 492144
      493137 491133 491128 495120 498113
 0.25 436715 437712 435711 434712 433713 432716 434717 436715
      436715
 0.25 433873 433865 431859 428847 424836 421832 417828 413826
      408826 404829 402834 400840 400846 399854 400862 403866
      407870 411873 416875 420876 423879 426880 429879 432876
      433873
 0.25 402984 403982 403979 401978 400979 398981 397982 396983
      396984 395986 395988 396990 398989 399989 400989 401986
      401985 402984
 0.25 348125 348122 347119 345117 343116 341113 338112 337115
      336117 334121 335125 337127 339128 342129 344129 347127
      348125
 0.25 323780 324771 323767 322762 315753 309741 307741 304742
      303747 302753 299760 294770 291775 288780 281788 278792
      273796 271798 272801 269804 263805 256807 255810 260813
      264816 270817 281820 286821 289820 291818 290814 288812
      284810 278808 276807 278805 289804 301800 306797 312796
      317793 321789 323780
 0.25 305089 303085 297086 294088 290088 283082 276078 268074
      262070 255063 248058 245057 239058 233063 232067 234071
      237073 241075 248079 255085 267096 273102 281105 284105
      288102 295098 300092 305089
 0.25 290912 290905 290897 289892 287886 286880 283875 280871
      276869 266867 262869 258872 249890 242897 240901 238907
      238912 238920 240925 240932 239942 240948 243953 243958
      245964 248965 251965 255962 272952 276950 279946 283936
      287926 290914 290912
 0.25 245992 245990 245988 244987 242986 241986 240985 240986
      239987 239988 239989 240992 242993 244993 245992
 0.50 523168 523160 523155 523147 521142 517141 513142 509144
      506148 506151 507156 511160 514163 517166 521169 523168
 0.50 481127 480122 477118 472116 468117 466122 464127 461131
      461135 464136 469135 472134 476132 479130 481127
 0.50 419856 420851 419846 418842 416840 414838 412838 411839
      409843 409845 408849 407852 407857 409859 412861 415860
      417858 419856
 0.50 319774 317763 311758 307756 303757 299764 297774 293782
      288789 287793 290797 298796 306793 314787 318780 319774
 0.50 279092 279086 275082 267077 259072 253065 246061 243061
      241062 239068 249072 255079 262086 269092 274094 278093
      279092
 0.50 284904 283895 281887 276882 269880 265882 263884 258890
      247899 244904 243913 246920 246927 248935 252941 254942
      259943 266939 270935 274929 279923 282916 284909 284904

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 010839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
439 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK WAVE
SHOULD BE EMERGING OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS CYCLONE APPEARS
TO BE WHAT REMAINS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. GIVEN ITS
WEAK STATE AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT FAVOR ANY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS RULES OUT THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF
CLUSTER. UTILIZED MORE OF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED
SOMETHING LIGHTER AND MORE OFFSHORE. BESIDES THE EXITING
WAVE...THE USUAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS LOCALLY ENHANCING
AMOUNTS.

TO THE WEST...A VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MX. MODELS SHOW BROAD 850-MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL REACHING THE GULF COAST WILL BE ALONG SEA
BREEZES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONS. IT APPEARS
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF OF MX
WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS DISPLAY
VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BEING MOST CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THUS...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FOR BOTH DAYS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN ACTIVE...YET UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
SUFFICENT DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST A
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ARE THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM ALONG WITH SOME
CAPPING NOTED IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MODEL SPREAD WITH
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO ONE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTION
IN THIS PATTERN. WPC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WHILE TENDED TO WASH OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE
UNCERTAIN.


...NEW ENGLAND...

AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA WHICH
WILL DRAG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIVING SOUTH WHICH
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER NEW ENGLAND BY DAY 3. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR ENOUGH TO FOLLOW SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW TAKE
WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z GFS TENDED TO DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN
SOLUTION WHICH DID NOT SEEM TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. DID INCORPORATE A PORTION OF ITS OUTPUT INTO THE
MIX. AS USUAL...THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL SENSE
TO IT WITH THE COVERAGE WANING OVERNIGHT. HOW THIS CONVECTION
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE TO BETTER ORGANIZE ANY
ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA EMERGING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. TENDED TO BROAD BRUSH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAINFALL GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO WA/OR/ID WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THE JET LEVEL...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTOR OF THE 100
KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WHICH SHOULD SUPPLY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL WIND/MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.50 T0 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...THE PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES. WHILE THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ACTUAL QPF OUTPUT WAS RATHER SIMILAR.
ENDED UP FAVORING THE 27-KM 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO HANDLE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN MORE ADEQUATELY.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537204 537195 532183 531177 528171 521161 514153
      510149 507147 504147 504153 504157 501156 492160 488162
      486167 491179 490187 490191 488195 484200 480203 472208
      463213 458215 454215 444216 439218 436221 434224 433228
      437231 446227 455225 456227 454231 450233 445235 441240
      442248 443250 446251 449249 455249 464248 470249 475254
      482261 487265 489270 495281 498286 502287 505287 509285
      513280 518268 520262 521253 516240 512229 505218 500208
      500204 503202 506202 510204 514210 516216 520218 526222
      530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 489972 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957
      472967 472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 485007
      487005 491995 492987
 0.01 483854 484845 483834 482826 477820 475818 473819 471821
      470825 467833 465841 463849 461857 459864 457869 452882
      449888 449901 448908 444913 440918 436925 430935 424941
      417944 406950 400953 395957 391968 387984 383988 383992
      385995 385999 387002 386006 385007 364025 355033 345041
      341044 336046 330049 325053 325057 332058 335058 338056
      344061 343068 342071 336074 323078 308077 295075 288072
      280071 269066 258061 248054 241055 235059 234065 238070
      258087 262090 264093 267093 281096 288097 292101 301110
      304112 307113 314114 329112 343111 352102 356098 358096
      359092 357087 356083 356078 356074 358071 360069 363069
      368074 370080 377094 389092 392098 393100 392102 390104
      385109 380112 378117 381121 385122 390118 400113 405108
      408102 407100 403099 399097 398094 400091 401085 403082
      406081 411078 415072 417066 414059 411054 405053 390052
      385049 380045 378042 381039 386034 389032 393032 397025
      401011 404004 409999 411997 414996 420994 426993 429990
      438979 441975 447971 450967 454959 456942 459932 459922
      459916 461913 462910 465908 472897 477884 479877 481869
      483854
 0.01 417858 413836 412830 410826 403827 402815 398805 396802
      396799 399791 397787 393785 387787 384789 379796 372800
      366806 361813 355819 351825 346831 343840 347845 352844
      354841 356838 357833 362825 367820 373815 380809 383809
      385815 383825 383836 384845 381847 379852 376859 375864
      375869 377872 376876 374881 373886 374890 379891 382890
      386889 403884 411880 413877 414872 417858
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 305794 303800 300805
      292806 285806 275801 270798 263797 255798 250802 250808
      253814 257818 259825 262830 261837 262845 265850 270853
      276855 283855 290856 295858 301859 306857 309852 313838
      314831 316824 321813 324808 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 239004 250010 256010 261008 266005 270001 286993
      292989 296985 299981 303975 310966 313961 317956 322946
      320940 316935 312932 305930 301926 295924 290922 286922
      284924 281929 274931 266939 262943 258943 255945 243949
      237957 232970 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499171 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      519200 521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516255 515248 511236 499219 494210 489207 485207
      480209 475211 472215 471219 475219 481221 487223 491225
      495236 500245 502251 502254 500255 496252 493246 490242
      486242 485245 485249 486256 491266 497275 499280 501282
      504282 508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 428961 428959 428957 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      423967 424967 425966 426965 427964 428962 428961
 0.25 318800 317796 313797 308801 304806 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 287941 283943 277948 271954 265959
      261966 259972 263975 268975 272974 277972 280970 286964
      290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 509263 511263
      513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505279 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273834
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 472619 477625 481624 485627 488631 493643 496657 497660
      498665 499673 502692 505725 506735 505742 506751 505754
      505759 503771 500780 487798 482809 478820 474831 470835
      466836 460832 457828 455823 454818 452815 452807 452800
      450794 441792 438789 436789 436792 436809 433812 428812
      423803 421796 421789 420780 421775 424770 427767 430762
      431756 431742 432735 435731 438726 438719 439714 442711
      448708 452705 455700 458699 459696 459687 458679 456663
      452649 451644 450637 452627
 0.01 527250 527244 523241 524236 527233 533228 535223 537218
      540207 541200 541191 547172 550160 551145 547136 542129
      522149 517149 514147 505143 494141 492137 492132 495121
      499113 503106 507102 509094 509089 506080 503077 500081
      496089 485098 480104 476111 453137 443148 444167 443174
      444180 446185 444189 445194 447194 449190 453187 459184
      465179 470173 477173 484179 485184 488188 487195 484199
      477201 470204 464208 451212 443214 436216 433219 429220
      424219 422222 423225 427227 427230 425232 422233 416235
      415240 417243 420246 426247 430248 434247 446262 454263
      461262 470264 475270 484287 489294 494302 498303 502302
      506299 509294 510289 514282 521269
 0.01 509924 508908 505898 505891 506888 505880 502877 499873
      496872 494871 489871 475867 466865 460861 453855 450845
      447836 443831 438824 435823 430823 426824 423828 420827
      420822 422817 421811 419806 420801 416795 409791 402778
      387769 381765 372768 368775 363778 359781 357785 357794
      360807 360813 359818 359823 363825 371824 378819 383819
      386822 384826 380827 378830 378834 379841 382844 388849
      391851 397852 406850 408851 408854 406857 404861 405866
      405873 407876 410882 413885 415890 416896 416903 414912
      411924 410931 409933 405940 398954 385966 382969 380974
      380986 383992 389996 399997 401998 405996 408994 411990
      416984 425968 433956 438948 443943 447940 449936 449930
      451925 458921 462919 467918 476917 481917 484919 491922
      496927 500932 502934 504934 507929 509924
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476929
      475934 474941 475947 477954 479959 481965 484969 486975
      489978 490980 493980 497980 502976 504972
 0.01 401076 401072 398069 394068 391064 386059 390051 388047
      386047 378044 369036 366036 363040 358045 355047 350048
      344051 340051 337053 330055 324056 320052 313047 311049
      310053 310059 312063 316068 318076 316079 312079 306077
      300075 289074 281072 268064 257058 251055 246050 242043
      239036 235031 231031 228034 226041 225051 225060 225068
      228075 232081 237086 243090 253098 262107 265111 268112
      271114 275116 293116 302126 311127 317126 326125 328127
      333128 340126 340130 343131 346131 348129 348124 351119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 347103 346100 347097 355081
      361067 365061 369057 373078 376085 379084 381081 386077
      388079 392080 395080 398078 401076
 0.01 374722 372706 371701 368697 365692 361690 357689 352689
      343690 333694 326698 320704 314711 310710 304712 300714
      297719 298730 299743 299747 299754 298763 296771 289780
      283785 274790 264790 256787 252787 249786 243786 239789
      238792 238797 239801 237806 236810 237816 240825 242832
      243837 249842 252845 254849 257851 258857 258862 258865
      257868 247871 242873 239876 234885 231894 231934 231948
      232960 232965 232971 231983 231994 234001 241007 244009
      249009 262009 267002 273995 276992 280989 286985 292979
      299964 302951 302945 303939 305933 305927 304914 303909
      302903 302890 302884 303881 306871 306858 308854 311850
      317841 321834 328816 334802 337796 341792 343789 344784
      352778 355775 358770 357760 355755 352753 364742 370731
      374722
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340903 335901 327902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      340937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.25 533214 534203 534193 533187 531183 526177 518165 509154
      505151 502154 498160 492164 487169 493181 495185 499187
      506190 514203 519210 523216 526219 530221 533218 533214
 0.25 515261 515252 515246 513244 511237 508231 503217 499211
      495208 488209 482209 477210 473214 469220 470222 474224
      480224 487226 494239 501248 500253 499253 494247 492242
      487238 476229 467232 457239 457244 459246 465249 473251
      478254 491260 498272 502276 505278 506274 505266 506262
      508261 512264 515261
 0.25 479691 478675 476661 475653 474646 471642 468640 464638
      461642 461653 463669 466680 468684 471692 473703 474717
      471726 468730 467736 466747 466761 467767 469768 470766
      473755 475745 478724 479710 479698 479691
 0.25 462226 463223 462221 461219 459218 457218 456218 454217
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 454223 455223
      455224 457224 458225 460225 461226 462226
 0.25 470155 471152 469148 468147 465147 462148 461151 460153
      459158 459160 463162 464161 466159 468157 470155
 0.25 466717 465712 462715 460719 458724 456728 455733 454738
      455743 458741 461738 463733 464727 465722 466717
 0.25 468890 468885 467883 463878 455871 449859 442850 439844
      436843 435846 433852 433861 433866 432866 427864 423867
      421874 424892 423907 420923 418938 420941 423942 429939
      435930 441918 446906 446900 444897 441892 440889 441887
      444886 447886 451890 454896 458900 462900 467895 468890
 0.25 410961 411959 410958 410956 409955 407956 405957 404959
      403959 402961 402962 401963 400966 400968 401970 402971
      403972 405971 406970 407970 408968 409968 410966 410963
      410962 410961
 0.25 396789 394784 391783 386782 381784 379787 377792 376796
      374801 379801 383799 386797 391795 395792 396789
 0.25 340098 341093 340091 339087 340082 338080 336079 333079
      332081 332085 332088 333092 334095 336097 338098 340098
 0.25 329766 328755 326746 322742 316741 314747 313755 309769
      307775 303781 294788 288793 283797 281803 280806 276807
      267807 263808 261810 263816 268820 281824 283825 285827
      283828 280832 280836 282839 286844 294852 309831 317820
      320807 325793 327786 328780 329771 329766
 0.25 330105 330099 325096 318094 314096 309099 307100 306104
      308109 310115 314118 320118 324113 328110 330105
 0.25 289100 290094 289090 286085 279080 274075 268071 262069
      255065 250061 244057 237054 232055 231058 232065 236071
      241076 251084 259088 264092 274100 283102 287102 289100
 0.25 287941 287922 286908 284898 282891 274884 269881 265880
      261881 252887 243896 239900 237906 236913 236922 237938
      240952 242966 241975 237980 235985 235991 237997 240998
      244998 248996 249992 248988 249983 255980 263974 268970
      274966 281960 284955 285950 287941
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523191
      520191 521194 522198 523203 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 500182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502233 502228 500222 498219 495215 491213 487214 483214
      482217 485220 489223 492227 494230 496234 501235 502233
 0.50 488251 488247 486243 485242 482239 480237 478235 477235
      474237 472239 473242 474245 477248 479249 482251 485252
      488251
 0.50 437909 437902 434897 432894 430894 429897 429900 429907
      427911 426916 425921 426927 429928 432926 434921 435916
      436911 437909
 0.50 322791 323780 321776 319774 316774 314776 310781 306786
      300789 295792 290797 288799 288803 290805 289809 278811
      275814 277818 283820 290821 296823 301826 306823 313812
      317806 319800 322791
 0.50 279092 278086 275083 272078 269075 260072 251066 242062
      239061 238063 240066 247074 254080 262085 270091 274094
      278094 279092
 0.50 279921 280911 278902 276896 273891 267888 262889 253897
      244906 241913 241921 241931 242939 246945 250949 257950
      263949 267948 270946 272940 274933 276927 279921
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176
 1.00 316796 316791 313790 310792 308794 306795 303797 302800
      303804 304806 307806 310805 312803 313800 315798 316796
 1.00 259913 260911 259909 258909 257908 255909 253909 251911
      250913 249913 250914 250915 251917 251918 253918 255918
      256917 257916 258915 259914 259913

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541195 540180 539172 537165 533154 530129 526127
      521128 517127 513124 510120 508115 516109 519106 522100
      524094 524085 524080 522074 520070 517069 513072 511069
      512065 516054 517048 518044 516030 513026 509022 502015
      496013 491015 488017 484022 483027 479039 476051 474057
      474066 473074 472084 466094 460099 457102 455102 453100
      451094 449093 438090 436095 435095 431094 431096 432101
      431109 433114 438117 442122 443127 440127 438129 437135
      436138 436143 435147 434153 435158 438162 442164 447173
      451177 452178 454177 457173 458168 459165 463162 472161
      476158 479159 480162 484166 483173 487182 489195 485201
      482203 478206 473207 467211 460215 451215 446217 440217
      444225 448227 453226 455228 455231 450232 441236 435243
      428247 427254 429258 433263 435269 439277 441282 445286
      448289 453290 460290 464289 470284 475276 478269 482273
      486277 489283 493290 495296 499295 504284 509284 512280
      520266 523262 525254 528237 530226 534223 539210
 0.01 485884 484876 481872 469868 465867 463866 460863 459858
      458846 455839 450835 448833 445833 438825 436822 436817
      435811 436806 441801 444793 445786 445779 446761 450744
      453726 452718 449711 446706 442703 434704 431705 429702
      424700 415703 403706 400706 398708 396715 396724 394731
      393734 394740 398747 402752 407756 411757 411763 408769
      404776 399781 397783 395782 394780 393773 389769 380770
      375774 373776 369777 366774 366768 364758 362755 358754
      352755 349754 345754 338751 332748 329744 326739 322724
      319719 314717 308718 303722 301728 301733 297734 293735
      290738 287744 285772 280777 274781 268783 263787 253793
      244801 241809 242817 246822 248823 250826 254830 259832
      265834 268834 270837 273841 278844 285848 292847 296853
      298859 300867 300876 302883 303886 306889 308891 313891
      319887 322881 323874 323865 322857 320849 318844 310833
      309825 310820 312820 317815 321810 328798 332794 337788
      343786 346786 349788 351794 352804 353813 349821 347827
      345830 346836 346842 352844 360843 364838 385825 390829
      387836 387844 388853 390861 393866 400878 404883 409885
      412893 413903 415910 419917 425917 430917 433914 436909
      439907 443906 453905 458901 460896 462893 477892 482887
      485884
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 431994 432982 431975 430970 429965 426961 419954 419949
      417947 414945 410945 405945 402947 396954 387970 386975
      384980 382984 378987 375987 373991 371996 368998 363004
      363016 366020 366023 364025 358031 353036 345043 333051
      327055 325057 326059 324063 324067 322070 318073 314074
      303073 298074 292074 283073 275070 268066 261059 248051
      243050 240050 233055 227059 226060 226066 230073 237079
      248089 260102 267107 273111 281115 288119 294123 298126
      302127 308128 312131 316131 322130 334132 342136 347137
      351133 354132 358133 364133 366130 370121 373116 376112
      384111 390114 398111 400106 404103 410099 414091 415083
      412079 405074 404071 407068 413064 411053 411048 406044
      401041 397043 392043 391040 395037 399035 403035 407033
      408028 409024 407020 406016 405013 408012 416010 422008
      426004 429999 431994
 0.01 371082 371079 370077 370075 369073 367073 365072 364074
      364076 363077 362078 362081 363083 364085 364086 366087
      368088 369086 370084 371082
 0.01 303933 298889 297885 297879 298874 296870 295866 293863
      291859 287856 279856 274855 269853 261852 256854 249859
      244865 242869 242874 244883 238888 234895 231905 230909
      230914 230925 231937 232941 232946 231955 232964 234975
      232984 232995 236002 243006 249007 251005 255998 260991
      266985 272980 279976 285972 290966 294959 296949 300940
      303933
 0.25 528183 529177 529171 528163 526154 526144 525139 524136
      518135 513137 507138 501141 499152 499157 497160 493165
      493172 495179 505187 515198 520202 522202 523197 525186
      528183
 0.25 503233 505230 504226 503220 502217 499213 495212 492214
      488217 486217 485220 487224 492226 495230 498233 503233
      503233
 0.25 498263 499257 497252 493246 490239 486238 484238 482239
      480236 478233 476233 473234 470238 467245 466247 468249
      472250 480253 486257 490258 493261 496264 498263
 0.25 498113 499106 499100 495098 492099 485105 483106 478105
      472104 468104 465107 461115 456121 450139 448144 445147
      445152 447155 453159 453156 456155 459155 464154 467152
      469147 471144 474142 482143 486142 489142 490144 492144
      493137 491133 491128 495120 498113
 0.25 436715 437712 435711 434712 433713 432716 434717 436715
      436715
 0.25 433873 433865 431859 428847 424836 421832 417828 413826
      408826 404829 402834 400840 400846 399854 400862 403866
      407870 411873 416875 420876 423879 426880 429879 432876
      433873
 0.25 402984 403982 403979 401978 400979 398981 397982 396983
      396984 395986 395988 396990 398989 399989 400989 401986
      401985 402984
 0.25 348125 348122 347119 345117 343116 341113 338112 337115
      336117 334121 335125 337127 339128 342129 344129 347127
      348125
 0.25 323780 324771 323767 322762 315753 309741 307741 304742
      303747 302753 299760 294770 291775 288780 281788 278792
      273796 271798 272801 269804 263805 256807 255810 260813
      264816 270817 281820 286821 289820 291818 290814 288812
      284810 278808 276807 278805 289804 301800 306797 312796
      317793 321789 323780
 0.25 305089 303085 297086 294088 290088 283082 276078 268074
      262070 255063 248058 245057 239058 233063 232067 234071
      237073 241075 248079 255085 267096 273102 281105 284105
      288102 295098 300092 305089
 0.25 290912 290905 290897 289892 287886 286880 283875 280871
      276869 266867 262869 258872 249890 242897 240901 238907
      238912 238920 240925 240932 239942 240948 243953 243958
      245964 248965 251965 255962 272952 276950 279946 283936
      287926 290914 290912
 0.25 245992 245990 245988 244987 242986 241986 240985 240986
      239987 239988 239989 240992 242993 244993 245992
 0.50 523168 523160 523155 523147 521142 517141 513142 509144
      506148 506151 507156 511160 514163 517166 521169 523168
 0.50 481127 480122 477118 472116 468117 466122 464127 461131
      461135 464136 469135 472134 476132 479130 481127
 0.50 419856 420851 419846 418842 416840 414838 412838 411839
      409843 409845 408849 407852 407857 409859 412861 415860
      417858 419856
 0.50 319774 317763 311758 307756 303757 299764 297774 293782
      288789 287793 290797 298796 306793 314787 318780 319774
 0.50 279092 279086 275082 267077 259072 253065 246061 243061
      241062 239068 249072 255079 262086 269092 274094 278093
      279092
 0.50 284904 283895 281887 276882 269880 265882 263884 258890
      247899 244904 243913 246920 246927 248935 252941 254942
      259943 266939 270935 274929 279923 282916 284909 284904

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
439 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK WAVE
SHOULD BE EMERGING OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS CYCLONE APPEARS
TO BE WHAT REMAINS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. GIVEN ITS
WEAK STATE AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT FAVOR ANY SOLUTION SHOWING ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS RULES OUT THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF
CLUSTER. UTILIZED MORE OF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED
SOMETHING LIGHTER AND MORE OFFSHORE. BESIDES THE EXITING
WAVE...THE USUAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS LOCALLY ENHANCING
AMOUNTS.

TO THE WEST...A VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MX. MODELS SHOW BROAD 850-MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING PWATS IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL REACHING THE GULF COAST WILL BE ALONG SEA
BREEZES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONS. IT APPEARS
THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF OF MX
WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS DISPLAY
VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF BEING MOST CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THUS...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FOR BOTH DAYS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN ACTIVE...YET UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD FOR LOCATIONS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
SUFFICENT DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST A
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ARE THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM ALONG WITH SOME
CAPPING NOTED IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MODEL SPREAD WITH
THIS PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BUT NOT READY TO BUY INTO ONE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTION
IN THIS PATTERN. WPC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WHILE TENDED TO WASH OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE
UNCERTAIN.


...NEW ENGLAND...

AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA WHICH
WILL DRAG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIVING SOUTH WHICH
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER NEW ENGLAND BY DAY 3. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR ENOUGH TO FOLLOW SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR RAINFALL BOTH DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. EXACTLY WHAT PATH THESE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW TAKE
WILL DICTATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z GFS TENDED TO DISPLAY A MORE WESTERN
SOLUTION WHICH DID NOT SEEM TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. DID INCORPORATE A PORTION OF ITS OUTPUT INTO THE
MIX. AS USUAL...THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE A DIURNAL SENSE
TO IT WITH THE COVERAGE WANING OVERNIGHT. HOW THIS CONVECTION
TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE TO BETTER ORGANIZE ANY
ONGOING ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THESE VORTICITY MAXIMA EMERGING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. TENDED TO BROAD BRUSH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAINFALL GIVEN THESE CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL DROP DOWN INTO WA/OR/ID WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THE JET LEVEL...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTOR OF THE 100
KNOT PLUS SPEED MAX WHICH SHOULD SUPPLY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WHILE MID/UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL WIND/MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.50 T0 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOCATED
WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...THE PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES. WHILE THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ACTUAL QPF OUTPUT WAS RATHER SIMILAR.
ENDED UP FAVORING THE 27-KM 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO HANDLE THE LOCAL
TERRAIN MORE ADEQUATELY.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537204 537195 532183 531177 528171 521161 514153
      510149 507147 504147 504153 504157 501156 492160 488162
      486167 491179 490187 490191 488195 484200 480203 472208
      463213 458215 454215 444216 439218 436221 434224 433228
      437231 446227 455225 456227 454231 450233 445235 441240
      442248 443250 446251 449249 455249 464248 470249 475254
      482261 487265 489270 495281 498286 502287 505287 509285
      513280 518268 520262 521253 516240 512229 505218 500208
      500204 503202 506202 510204 514210 516216 520218 526222
      530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 489972 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957
      472967 472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 485007
      487005 491995 492987
 0.01 483854 484845 483834 482826 477820 475818 473819 471821
      470825 467833 465841 463849 461857 459864 457869 452882
      449888 449901 448908 444913 440918 436925 430935 424941
      417944 406950 400953 395957 391968 387984 383988 383992
      385995 385999 387002 386006 385007 364025 355033 345041
      341044 336046 330049 325053 325057 332058 335058 338056
      344061 343068 342071 336074 323078 308077 295075 288072
      280071 269066 258061 248054 241055 235059 234065 238070
      258087 262090 264093 267093 281096 288097 292101 301110
      304112 307113 314114 329112 343111 352102 356098 358096
      359092 357087 356083 356078 356074 358071 360069 363069
      368074 370080 377094 389092 392098 393100 392102 390104
      385109 380112 378117 381121 385122 390118 400113 405108
      408102 407100 403099 399097 398094 400091 401085 403082
      406081 411078 415072 417066 414059 411054 405053 390052
      385049 380045 378042 381039 386034 389032 393032 397025
      401011 404004 409999 411997 414996 420994 426993 429990
      438979 441975 447971 450967 454959 456942 459932 459922
      459916 461913 462910 465908 472897 477884 479877 481869
      483854
 0.01 417858 413836 412830 410826 403827 402815 398805 396802
      396799 399791 397787 393785 387787 384789 379796 372800
      366806 361813 355819 351825 346831 343840 347845 352844
      354841 356838 357833 362825 367820 373815 380809 383809
      385815 383825 383836 384845 381847 379852 376859 375864
      375869 377872 376876 374881 373886 374890 379891 382890
      386889 403884 411880 413877 414872 417858
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 305794 303800 300805
      292806 285806 275801 270798 263797 255798 250802 250808
      253814 257818 259825 262830 261837 262845 265850 270853
      276855 283855 290856 295858 301859 306857 309852 313838
      314831 316824 321813 324808 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 239004 250010 256010 261008 266005 270001 286993
      292989 296985 299981 303975 310966 313961 317956 322946
      320940 316935 312932 305930 301926 295924 290922 286922
      284924 281929 274931 266939 262943 258943 255945 243949
      237957 232970 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499171 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      519200 521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516255 515248 511236 499219 494210 489207 485207
      480209 475211 472215 471219 475219 481221 487223 491225
      495236 500245 502251 502254 500255 496252 493246 490242
      486242 485245 485249 486256 491266 497275 499280 501282
      504282 508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 428961 428959 428957 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      423967 424967 425966 426965 427964 428962 428961
 0.25 318800 317796 313797 308801 304806 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 287941 283943 277948 271954 265959
      261966 259972 263975 268975 272974 277972 280970 286964
      290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 509263 511263
      513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505279 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273834
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 472619 477625 481624 485627 488631 493643 496657 497660
      498665 499673 502692 505725 506735 505742 506751 505754
      505759 503771 500780 487798 482809 478820 474831 470835
      466836 460832 457828 455823 454818 452815 452807 452800
      450794 441792 438789 436789 436792 436809 433812 428812
      423803 421796 421789 420780 421775 424770 427767 430762
      431756 431742 432735 435731 438726 438719 439714 442711
      448708 452705 455700 458699 459696 459687 458679 456663
      452649 451644 450637 452627
 0.01 527250 527244 523241 524236 527233 533228 535223 537218
      540207 541200 541191 547172 550160 551145 547136 542129
      522149 517149 514147 505143 494141 492137 492132 495121
      499113 503106 507102 509094 509089 506080 503077 500081
      496089 485098 480104 476111 453137 443148 444167 443174
      444180 446185 444189 445194 447194 449190 453187 459184
      465179 470173 477173 484179 485184 488188 487195 484199
      477201 470204 464208 451212 443214 436216 433219 429220
      424219 422222 423225 427227 427230 425232 422233 416235
      415240 417243 420246 426247 430248 434247 446262 454263
      461262 470264 475270 484287 489294 494302 498303 502302
      506299 509294 510289 514282 521269
 0.01 509924 508908 505898 505891 506888 505880 502877 499873
      496872 494871 489871 475867 466865 460861 453855 450845
      447836 443831 438824 435823 430823 426824 423828 420827
      420822 422817 421811 419806 420801 416795 409791 402778
      387769 381765 372768 368775 363778 359781 357785 357794
      360807 360813 359818 359823 363825 371824 378819 383819
      386822 384826 380827 378830 378834 379841 382844 388849
      391851 397852 406850 408851 408854 406857 404861 405866
      405873 407876 410882 413885 415890 416896 416903 414912
      411924 410931 409933 405940 398954 385966 382969 380974
      380986 383992 389996 399997 401998 405996 408994 411990
      416984 425968 433956 438948 443943 447940 449936 449930
      451925 458921 462919 467918 476917 481917 484919 491922
      496927 500932 502934 504934 507929 509924
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476929
      475934 474941 475947 477954 479959 481965 484969 486975
      489978 490980 493980 497980 502976 504972
 0.01 401076 401072 398069 394068 391064 386059 390051 388047
      386047 378044 369036 366036 363040 358045 355047 350048
      344051 340051 337053 330055 324056 320052 313047 311049
      310053 310059 312063 316068 318076 316079 312079 306077
      300075 289074 281072 268064 257058 251055 246050 242043
      239036 235031 231031 228034 226041 225051 225060 225068
      228075 232081 237086 243090 253098 262107 265111 268112
      271114 275116 293116 302126 311127 317126 326125 328127
      333128 340126 340130 343131 346131 348129 348124 351119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 347103 346100 347097 355081
      361067 365061 369057 373078 376085 379084 381081 386077
      388079 392080 395080 398078 401076
 0.01 374722 372706 371701 368697 365692 361690 357689 352689
      343690 333694 326698 320704 314711 310710 304712 300714
      297719 298730 299743 299747 299754 298763 296771 289780
      283785 274790 264790 256787 252787 249786 243786 239789
      238792 238797 239801 237806 236810 237816 240825 242832
      243837 249842 252845 254849 257851 258857 258862 258865
      257868 247871 242873 239876 234885 231894 231934 231948
      232960 232965 232971 231983 231994 234001 241007 244009
      249009 262009 267002 273995 276992 280989 286985 292979
      299964 302951 302945 303939 305933 305927 304914 303909
      302903 302890 302884 303881 306871 306858 308854 311850
      317841 321834 328816 334802 337796 341792 343789 344784
      352778 355775 358770 357760 355755 352753 364742 370731
      374722
 0.01 355927 355919 352914 348910 344907 340903 335901 327902
      322904 315913 312924 316937 319941 323943 330943 334941
      340937 345935 350934 354930 355927
 0.25 533214 534203 534193 533187 531183 526177 518165 509154
      505151 502154 498160 492164 487169 493181 495185 499187
      506190 514203 519210 523216 526219 530221 533218 533214
 0.25 515261 515252 515246 513244 511237 508231 503217 499211
      495208 488209 482209 477210 473214 469220 470222 474224
      480224 487226 494239 501248 500253 499253 494247 492242
      487238 476229 467232 457239 457244 459246 465249 473251
      478254 491260 498272 502276 505278 506274 505266 506262
      508261 512264 515261
 0.25 479691 478675 476661 475653 474646 471642 468640 464638
      461642 461653 463669 466680 468684 471692 473703 474717
      471726 468730 467736 466747 466761 467767 469768 470766
      473755 475745 478724 479710 479698 479691
 0.25 462226 463223 462221 461219 459218 457218 456218 454217
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 454223 455223
      455224 457224 458225 460225 461226 462226
 0.25 470155 471152 469148 468147 465147 462148 461151 460153
      459158 459160 463162 464161 466159 468157 470155
 0.25 466717 465712 462715 460719 458724 456728 455733 454738
      455743 458741 461738 463733 464727 465722 466717
 0.25 468890 468885 467883 463878 455871 449859 442850 439844
      436843 435846 433852 433861 433866 432866 427864 423867
      421874 424892 423907 420923 418938 420941 423942 429939
      435930 441918 446906 446900 444897 441892 440889 441887
      444886 447886 451890 454896 458900 462900 467895 468890
 0.25 410961 411959 410958 410956 409955 407956 405957 404959
      403959 402961 402962 401963 400966 400968 401970 402971
      403972 405971 406970 407970 408968 409968 410966 410963
      410962 410961
 0.25 396789 394784 391783 386782 381784 379787 377792 376796
      374801 379801 383799 386797 391795 395792 396789
 0.25 340098 341093 340091 339087 340082 338080 336079 333079
      332081 332085 332088 333092 334095 336097 338098 340098
 0.25 329766 328755 326746 322742 316741 314747 313755 309769
      307775 303781 294788 288793 283797 281803 280806 276807
      267807 263808 261810 263816 268820 281824 283825 285827
      283828 280832 280836 282839 286844 294852 309831 317820
      320807 325793 327786 328780 329771 329766
 0.25 330105 330099 325096 318094 314096 309099 307100 306104
      308109 310115 314118 320118 324113 328110 330105
 0.25 289100 290094 289090 286085 279080 274075 268071 262069
      255065 250061 244057 237054 232055 231058 232065 236071
      241076 251084 259088 264092 274100 283102 287102 289100
 0.25 287941 287922 286908 284898 282891 274884 269881 265880
      261881 252887 243896 239900 237906 236913 236922 237938
      240952 242966 241975 237980 235985 235991 237997 240998
      244998 248996 249992 248988 249983 255980 263974 268970
      274966 281960 284955 285950 287941
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523191
      520191 521194 522198 523203 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 500182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502233 502228 500222 498219 495215 491213 487214 483214
      482217 485220 489223 492227 494230 496234 501235 502233
 0.50 488251 488247 486243 485242 482239 480237 478235 477235
      474237 472239 473242 474245 477248 479249 482251 485252
      488251
 0.50 437909 437902 434897 432894 430894 429897 429900 429907
      427911 426916 425921 426927 429928 432926 434921 435916
      436911 437909
 0.50 322791 323780 321776 319774 316774 314776 310781 306786
      300789 295792 290797 288799 288803 290805 289809 278811
      275814 277818 283820 290821 296823 301826 306823 313812
      317806 319800 322791
 0.50 279092 278086 275083 272078 269075 260072 251066 242062
      239061 238063 240066 247074 254080 262085 270091 274094
      278094 279092
 0.50 279921 280911 278902 276896 273891 267888 262889 253897
      244906 241913 241921 241931 242939 246945 250949 257950
      263949 267948 270946 272940 274933 276927 279921
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176
 1.00 316796 316791 313790 310792 308794 306795 303797 302800
      303804 304806 307806 310805 312803 313800 315798 316796
 1.00 259913 260911 259909 258909 257908 255909 253909 251911
      250913 249913 250914 250915 251917 251918 253918 255918
      256917 257916 258915 259914 259913

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 539210 541195 540180 539172 537165 533154 530129 526127
      521128 517127 513124 510120 508115 516109 519106 522100
      524094 524085 524080 522074 520070 517069 513072 511069
      512065 516054 517048 518044 516030 513026 509022 502015
      496013 491015 488017 484022 483027 479039 476051 474057
      474066 473074 472084 466094 460099 457102 455102 453100
      451094 449093 438090 436095 435095 431094 431096 432101
      431109 433114 438117 442122 443127 440127 438129 437135
      436138 436143 435147 434153 435158 438162 442164 447173
      451177 452178 454177 457173 458168 459165 463162 472161
      476158 479159 480162 484166 483173 487182 489195 485201
      482203 478206 473207 467211 460215 451215 446217 440217
      444225 448227 453226 455228 455231 450232 441236 435243
      428247 427254 429258 433263 435269 439277 441282 445286
      448289 453290 460290 464289 470284 475276 478269 482273
      486277 489283 493290 495296 499295 504284 509284 512280
      520266 523262 525254 528237 530226 534223 539210
 0.01 485884 484876 481872 469868 465867 463866 460863 459858
      458846 455839 450835 448833 445833 438825 436822 436817
      435811 436806 441801 444793 445786 445779 446761 450744
      453726 452718 449711 446706 442703 434704 431705 429702
      424700 415703 403706 400706 398708 396715 396724 394731
      393734 394740 398747 402752 407756 411757 411763 408769
      404776 399781 397783 395782 394780 393773 389769 380770
      375774 373776 369777 366774 366768 364758 362755 358754
      352755 349754 345754 338751 332748 329744 326739 322724
      319719 314717 308718 303722 301728 301733 297734 293735
      290738 287744 285772 280777 274781 268783 263787 253793
      244801 241809 242817 246822 248823 250826 254830 259832
      265834 268834 270837 273841 278844 285848 292847 296853
      298859 300867 300876 302883 303886 306889 308891 313891
      319887 322881 323874 323865 322857 320849 318844 310833
      309825 310820 312820 317815 321810 328798 332794 337788
      343786 346786 349788 351794 352804 353813 349821 347827
      345830 346836 346842 352844 360843 364838 385825 390829
      387836 387844 388853 390861 393866 400878 404883 409885
      412893 413903 415910 419917 425917 430917 433914 436909
      439907 443906 453905 458901 460896 462893 477892 482887
      485884
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 431994 432982 431975 430970 429965 426961 419954 419949
      417947 414945 410945 405945 402947 396954 387970 386975
      384980 382984 378987 375987 373991 371996 368998 363004
      363016 366020 366023 364025 358031 353036 345043 333051
      327055 325057 326059 324063 324067 322070 318073 314074
      303073 298074 292074 283073 275070 268066 261059 248051
      243050 240050 233055 227059 226060 226066 230073 237079
      248089 260102 267107 273111 281115 288119 294123 298126
      302127 308128 312131 316131 322130 334132 342136 347137
      351133 354132 358133 364133 366130 370121 373116 376112
      384111 390114 398111 400106 404103 410099 414091 415083
      412079 405074 404071 407068 413064 411053 411048 406044
      401041 397043 392043 391040 395037 399035 403035 407033
      408028 409024 407020 406016 405013 408012 416010 422008
      426004 429999 431994
 0.01 371082 371079 370077 370075 369073 367073 365072 364074
      364076 363077 362078 362081 363083 364085 364086 366087
      368088 369086 370084 371082
 0.01 303933 298889 297885 297879 298874 296870 295866 293863
      291859 287856 279856 274855 269853 261852 256854 249859
      244865 242869 242874 244883 238888 234895 231905 230909
      230914 230925 231937 232941 232946 231955 232964 234975
      232984 232995 236002 243006 249007 251005 255998 260991
      266985 272980 279976 285972 290966 294959 296949 300940
      303933
 0.25 528183 529177 529171 528163 526154 526144 525139 524136
      518135 513137 507138 501141 499152 499157 497160 493165
      493172 495179 505187 515198 520202 522202 523197 525186
      528183
 0.25 503233 505230 504226 503220 502217 499213 495212 492214
      488217 486217 485220 487224 492226 495230 498233 503233
      503233
 0.25 498263 499257 497252 493246 490239 486238 484238 482239
      480236 478233 476233 473234 470238 467245 466247 468249
      472250 480253 486257 490258 493261 496264 498263
 0.25 498113 499106 499100 495098 492099 485105 483106 478105
      472104 468104 465107 461115 456121 450139 448144 445147
      445152 447155 453159 453156 456155 459155 464154 467152
      469147 471144 474142 482143 486142 489142 490144 492144
      493137 491133 491128 495120 498113
 0.25 436715 437712 435711 434712 433713 432716 434717 436715
      436715
 0.25 433873 433865 431859 428847 424836 421832 417828 413826
      408826 404829 402834 400840 400846 399854 400862 403866
      407870 411873 416875 420876 423879 426880 429879 432876
      433873
 0.25 402984 403982 403979 401978 400979 398981 397982 396983
      396984 395986 395988 396990 398989 399989 400989 401986
      401985 402984
 0.25 348125 348122 347119 345117 343116 341113 338112 337115
      336117 334121 335125 337127 339128 342129 344129 347127
      348125
 0.25 323780 324771 323767 322762 315753 309741 307741 304742
      303747 302753 299760 294770 291775 288780 281788 278792
      273796 271798 272801 269804 263805 256807 255810 260813
      264816 270817 281820 286821 289820 291818 290814 288812
      284810 278808 276807 278805 289804 301800 306797 312796
      317793 321789 323780
 0.25 305089 303085 297086 294088 290088 283082 276078 268074
      262070 255063 248058 245057 239058 233063 232067 234071
      237073 241075 248079 255085 267096 273102 281105 284105
      288102 295098 300092 305089
 0.25 290912 290905 290897 289892 287886 286880 283875 280871
      276869 266867 262869 258872 249890 242897 240901 238907
      238912 238920 240925 240932 239942 240948 243953 243958
      245964 248965 251965 255962 272952 276950 279946 283936
      287926 290914 290912
 0.25 245992 245990 245988 244987 242986 241986 240985 240986
      239987 239988 239989 240992 242993 244993 245992
 0.50 523168 523160 523155 523147 521142 517141 513142 509144
      506148 506151 507156 511160 514163 517166 521169 523168
 0.50 481127 480122 477118 472116 468117 466122 464127 461131
      461135 464136 469135 472134 476132 479130 481127
 0.50 419856 420851 419846 418842 416840 414838 412838 411839
      409843 409845 408849 407852 407857 409859 412861 415860
      417858 419856
 0.50 319774 317763 311758 307756 303757 299764 297774 293782
      288789 287793 290797 298796 306793 314787 318780 319774
 0.50 279092 279086 275082 267077 259072 253065 246061 243061
      241062 239068 249072 255079 262086 269092 274094 278093
      279092
 0.50 284904 283895 281887 276882 269880 265882 263884 258890
      247899 244904 243913 246920 246927 248935 252941 254942
      259943 266939 270935 274929 279923 282916 284909 284904

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010810
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 010810
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 010700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537204 537195 532183 531177 528171 521161 514153
      510149 507147 504147 504153 504157 501156 492160 488162
      486167 491179 490187 490191 488195 484200 480203 472208
      463213 458215 454215 444216 439218 436221 434224 433228
      437231 446227 455225 456227 454231 450233 445235 441240
      442248 443250 446251 449249 455249 464248 470249 475254
      482261 487265 489270 495281 498286 502287 505287 509285
      513280 518268 520262 521253 516240 512229 505218 500208
      500204 503202 506202 510204 514210 516216 520218 526222
      530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 489972 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957
      472967 472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 485007
      487005 491995 492987
 0.01 483854 484845 483834 482826 477820 475818 473819 471821
      470825 467833 465841 463849 461857 459864 457869 452882
      449888 449901 448908 444913 440918 436925 430935 424941
      417944 406950 400953 395957 391968 387984 383988 383992
      385995 385999 387002 386006 385007 364025 355033 345041
      341044 336046 330049 325053 325057 332058 335058 338056
      344061 343068 342071 336074 323078 308077 295075 288072
      280071 269066 258061 248054 241055 235059 234065 238070
      258087 262090 264093 267093 281096 288097 292101 301110
      304112 307113 314114 329112 343111 352102 356098 358096
      359092 357087 356083 356078 356074 358071 360069 363069
      368074 370080 377094 389092 392098 393100 392102 390104
      385109 380112 378117 381121 385122 390118 400113 405108
      408102 407100 403099 399097 398094 400091 401085 403082
      406081 411078 415072 417066 414059 411054 405053 390052
      385049 380045 378042 381039 386034 389032 393032 397025
      401011 404004 409999 411997 414996 420994 426993 429990
      438979 441975 447971 450967 454959 456942 459932 459922
      459916 461913 462910 465908 472897 477884 479877 481869
      483854
 0.01 417858 413836 412830 410826 403827 402815 398805 396802
      396799 399791 397787 393785 387787 384789 379796 372800
      366806 361813 355819 351825 346831 343840 347845 352844
      354841 356838 357833 362825 367820 373815 380809 383809
      385815 383825 383836 384845 381847 379852 376859 375864
      375869 377872 376876 374881 373886 374890 379891 382890
      386889 403884 411880 413877 414872 417858
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 305794 303800 300805
      292806 285806 275801 270798 263797 255798 250802 250808
      253814 257818 259825 262830 261837 262845 265850 270853
      276855 283855 290856 295858 301859 306857 309852 313838
      314831 316824 321813 324808 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 239004 250010 256010 261008 266005 270001 286993
      292989 296985 299981 303975 310966 313961 317956 322946
      320940 316935 312932 305930 301926 295924 290922 286922
      284924 281929 274931 266939 262943 258943 255945 243949
      237957 232970 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499171 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      519200 521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516255 515248 511236 499219 494210 489207 485207
      480209 475211 472215 471219 475219 481221 487223 491225
      495236 500245 502251 502254 500255 496252 493246 490242
      486242 485245 485249 486256 491266 497275 499280 501282
      504282 508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 428961 428959 428957 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      423967 424967 425966 426965 427964 428962 428961
 0.25 318800 317796 313797 308801 304806 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 287941 283943 277948 271954 265959
      261966 259972 263975 268975 272974 277972 280970 286964
      290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 509263 511263
      513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505279 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273834
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537204 537195 532183 531177 528171 521161 514153
      510149 507147 504147 504153 504157 501156 492160 488162
      486167 491179 490187 490191 488195 484200 480203 472208
      463213 458215 454215 444216 439218 436221 434224 433228
      437231 446227 455225 456227 454231 450233 445235 441240
      442248 443250 446251 449249 455249 464248 470249 475254
      482261 487265 489270 495281 498286 502287 505287 509285
      513280 518268 520262 521253 516240 512229 505218 500208
      500204 503202 506202 510204 514210 516216 520218 526222
      530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 489972 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957
      472967 472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 485007
      487005 491995 492987
 0.01 483854 484845 483834 482826 477820 475818 473819 471821
      470825 467833 465841 463849 461857 459864 457869 452882
      449888 449901 448908 444913 440918 436925 430935 424941
      417944 406950 400953 395957 391968 387984 383988 383992
      385995 385999 387002 386006 385007 364025 355033 345041
      341044 336046 330049 325053 325057 332058 335058 338056
      344061 343068 342071 336074 323078 308077 295075 288072
      280071 269066 258061 248054 241055 235059 234065 238070
      258087 262090 264093 267093 281096 288097 292101 301110
      304112 307113 314114 329112 343111 352102 356098 358096
      359092 357087 356083 356078 356074 358071 360069 363069
      368074 370080 377094 389092 392098 393100 392102 390104
      385109 380112 378117 381121 385122 390118 400113 405108
      408102 407100 403099 399097 398094 400091 401085 403082
      406081 411078 415072 417066 414059 411054 405053 390052
      385049 380045 378042 381039 386034 389032 393032 397025
      401011 404004 409999 411997 414996 420994 426993 429990
      438979 441975 447971 450967 454959 456942 459932 459922
      459916 461913 462910 465908 472897 477884 479877 481869
      483854
 0.01 417858 413836 412830 410826 403827 402815 398805 396802
      396799 399791 397787 393785 387787 384789 379796 372800
      366806 361813 355819 351825 346831 343840 347845 352844
      354841 356838 357833 362825 367820 373815 380809 383809
      385815 383825 383836 384845 381847 379852 376859 375864
      375869 377872 376876 374881 373886 374890 379891 382890
      386889 403884 411880 413877 414872 417858
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 305794 303800 300805
      292806 285806 275801 270798 263797 255798 250802 250808
      253814 257818 259825 262830 261837 262845 265850 270853
      276855 283855 290856 295858 301859 306857 309852 313838
      314831 316824 321813 324808 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 239004 250010 256010 261008 266005 270001 286993
      292989 296985 299981 303975 310966 313961 317956 322946
      320940 316935 312932 305930 301926 295924 290922 286922
      284924 281929 274931 266939 262943 258943 255945 243949
      237957 232970 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499171 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      519200 521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516255 515248 511236 499219 494210 489207 485207
      480209 475211 472215 471219 475219 481221 487223 491225
      495236 500245 502251 502254 500255 496252 493246 490242
      486242 485245 485249 486256 491266 497275 499280 501282
      504282 508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 428961 428959 428957 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      423967 424967 425966 426965 427964 428962 428961
 0.25 318800 317796 313797 308801 304806 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 287941 283943 277948 271954 265959
      261966 259972 263975 268975 272974 277972 280970 286964
      290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 509263 511263
      513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505279 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273834
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010025
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010025
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010025
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010025
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 312204
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
603 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.



DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558867 555854 552847 549842 546838 543836 537834
      533837 529846 526854 523860 520871 511897 508911 508919
      507926 507935 509944 511948 515950 520947 524944 531936
      538928 541923 545920 553911 557900 560886
 0.01 525257 524244 525236 525231 527229 530229 532224 536218
      539213 540206 540192 535173 529163 524155 517151 509147
      504148 500147 497151 496159 491165 489170 488175 492184
      492190 489195 484199 477202 470206 463211 457214 453215
      450217 451222 453224 454228 453231 450231 447231 443232
      439236 437245 435256 437260 441259 444258 447261 450261
      452265 453268 456271 460270 464267 470262 476258 479262
      481268 483273 484279 487298 488302 490306 492309 496310
      501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499780 498772 495763 492782 490795 487805 481822
      477832 473840 465854 460864 458875 453893 450903 446912
      440928 438933 437937 438938 440935 441939 440943 438947
      440950 444950 445947 451939 456931 460924 465918 481889
      486880 488876 489871 491861 490854 489851 485850 484847
      486845 489842 490837 494830 497820 498812 499802 499788
 0.01 448097 443090 433090 425086 421083 419080 418068 421065
      421060 422055 420051 417045 414040 412035 414029 417024
      427010 432001 434992 435987 436981 436977 435975 431978
      428978 426973 423968 407973 399977 395977 391979 382990
      377997 371005 364011 361014 359018 355026 351033 342043
      326053 324057 323064 320066 317069 312076 303078 296078
      289076 280072 269068 259066 253061 248054 245048 243045
      239043 237041 233041 229043 227046 226052 226058 236071
      249081 254086 258090 263097 271104 274106 280108 285109
      289110 298113 303119 312121 318118 326115 332115 339116
      348119 353123 359128 367131 374130 380128 389125 398122
      406117 411111 414107 419109 426111 437103 444100 448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 437942 437940 437938 436940 437942 437942
 0.01 432885 432881 429878 424878 421877 418874 417871 417863
      417850 416838 415828 412821 410818 406815 403815 399815
      392819 388824 387827 387833 388836 391838 397842 399844
      400848 396856 391862 380868 377871 374874 374884 376887
      374891 372898 367905 361909 348914 346916 348919 355921
      359921 361919 368918 380907 392902 399898 403903 408903
      410898 410894 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 383791 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 351840 353837 357834
      362828 365825 370820 373817 377817 382814 386809 392803
      395798 395798
 0.01 386011 385009 383010 383011 385013 386011
 0.01 371750 370741 369731 365717 358709 352704 344705 338707
      329714 324717 320720 315729 310740 306751 302772 297784
      293788 287791 283793 276794 264796 252797 244803 236808
      233813 232818 235823 240827 244840 244845 248849 256853
      265860 274865 279867 284867 291867 295868 303868 308865
      312861 314855 319834 321827 323821 327809 335791 340786
      342784 346783 353782 356781 358779 365772 368769 369763
      371750
 0.01 230993 236002 242009 249012 253012 257010 261008 265004
      267003 273004 278002 280999 284992 294987 297985 301982
      306977 312969 318962 327956 333953 339952 343950 348949
      351948 354947 359946 363943 368936 370932 348932 340928
      334921 331919 326917 321919 315920 297924 286925 281924
      276925 270922 266915 260907 247906 242907 241911 240916
      240922 244932 247942 245964 244966 243971 241974 236974
      232976
 0.25 533206 534197 533190 531178 528172 525168 518161 512159
      510159 509162 505166 502171 501178 503183 504189 505195
      508201 512205 516208 520210 525213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 519253 515243 510232 506221 502210 499206
      493206 483207 479208 476210 472216 473219 475222 477225
      475228 467235 460239 458242 461243 465242 474248 480251
      483256 488264 493276 496286 497292 503295 507294 510291
      514285 516279 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405022 408021 411019 413018 415015 416013
      417010
 0.25 406875 405872 403869 400871 398873 397874 394876 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 403880
      404878 406875
 0.25 396048 396046 396043 396042 395041 394039 394038 393036
      393035 392034 391033 389033 389034 387036 387038 388040
      389042 389043 390044 391045 392047 393048 394048 395048
      396048
 0.25 363749 363738 361729 357723 352721 341716 336717 332719
      328722 321733 319741 319748 320754 320763 320768 322773
      326775 333773 338770 347767 352764 360756 363749
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 308827 307822 305814 302812 299813 292814 284812
      277812 265806 260806 255807 255811 257813 255821 254825
      255830 260836 264841 274850 281854 287854 296853 301848
      306843 308835 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 279082 274081 271083
      271088 274092 277094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300948 299945 294941 290936 285935 272938 265940
      259939 257941 256945 255952 254961 253968 255974 259978
      264984 266986 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 518167 517170 516173
      512171 510170 508172 506176 506181 509189 513195 516203
      522205 526205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 518259 516254 513247 505229 501218 494212 485213
      483217 486220 489224 491228 494237 501245 503248 502251
      500254 498254 495250 493245 490244 486244 485248 486250
      489254 491258 494267 497276 499282 501286 505288 509287
      518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356746 354737 350733 344729 339727 338723 334723 330726
      326731 323736 327738 330736 332733 338731 338736 329744
      327751 327760 332765 338765 344761 349758 354753 356747
      356746
 0.50 303838 303831 302826 299822 296821 285822 276824 270825
      266827 263830 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301841 303838
 0.50 293956 294950 292946 289943 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259959 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501235 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 293832 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830 270833
      272836 274840 277842 282844 285844 290841 292839 294836
 1.50 287837 287835 286834 284834 283833 282833 280833 280834
      279836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284839 285839 286839
      287837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 427933 426931 424931 423933 424934 426934 427933
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 312204
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
603 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.



DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558867 555854 552847 549842 546838 543836 537834
      533837 529846 526854 523860 520871 511897 508911 508919
      507926 507935 509944 511948 515950 520947 524944 531936
      538928 541923 545920 553911 557900 560886
 0.01 525257 524244 525236 525231 527229 530229 532224 536218
      539213 540206 540192 535173 529163 524155 517151 509147
      504148 500147 497151 496159 491165 489170 488175 492184
      492190 489195 484199 477202 470206 463211 457214 453215
      450217 451222 453224 454228 453231 450231 447231 443232
      439236 437245 435256 437260 441259 444258 447261 450261
      452265 453268 456271 460270 464267 470262 476258 479262
      481268 483273 484279 487298 488302 490306 492309 496310
      501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499780 498772 495763 492782 490795 487805 481822
      477832 473840 465854 460864 458875 453893 450903 446912
      440928 438933 437937 438938 440935 441939 440943 438947
      440950 444950 445947 451939 456931 460924 465918 481889
      486880 488876 489871 491861 490854 489851 485850 484847
      486845 489842 490837 494830 497820 498812 499802 499788
 0.01 448097 443090 433090 425086 421083 419080 418068 421065
      421060 422055 420051 417045 414040 412035 414029 417024
      427010 432001 434992 435987 436981 436977 435975 431978
      428978 426973 423968 407973 399977 395977 391979 382990
      377997 371005 364011 361014 359018 355026 351033 342043
      326053 324057 323064 320066 317069 312076 303078 296078
      289076 280072 269068 259066 253061 248054 245048 243045
      239043 237041 233041 229043 227046 226052 226058 236071
      249081 254086 258090 263097 271104 274106 280108 285109
      289110 298113 303119 312121 318118 326115 332115 339116
      348119 353123 359128 367131 374130 380128 389125 398122
      406117 411111 414107 419109 426111 437103 444100 448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 437942 437940 437938 436940 437942 437942
 0.01 432885 432881 429878 424878 421877 418874 417871 417863
      417850 416838 415828 412821 410818 406815 403815 399815
      392819 388824 387827 387833 388836 391838 397842 399844
      400848 396856 391862 380868 377871 374874 374884 376887
      374891 372898 367905 361909 348914 346916 348919 355921
      359921 361919 368918 380907 392902 399898 403903 408903
      410898 410894 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 383791 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 351840 353837 357834
      362828 365825 370820 373817 377817 382814 386809 392803
      395798 395798
 0.01 386011 385009 383010 383011 385013 386011
 0.01 371750 370741 369731 365717 358709 352704 344705 338707
      329714 324717 320720 315729 310740 306751 302772 297784
      293788 287791 283793 276794 264796 252797 244803 236808
      233813 232818 235823 240827 244840 244845 248849 256853
      265860 274865 279867 284867 291867 295868 303868 308865
      312861 314855 319834 321827 323821 327809 335791 340786
      342784 346783 353782 356781 358779 365772 368769 369763
      371750
 0.01 230993 236002 242009 249012 253012 257010 261008 265004
      267003 273004 278002 280999 284992 294987 297985 301982
      306977 312969 318962 327956 333953 339952 343950 348949
      351948 354947 359946 363943 368936 370932 348932 340928
      334921 331919 326917 321919 315920 297924 286925 281924
      276925 270922 266915 260907 247906 242907 241911 240916
      240922 244932 247942 245964 244966 243971 241974 236974
      232976
 0.25 533206 534197 533190 531178 528172 525168 518161 512159
      510159 509162 505166 502171 501178 503183 504189 505195
      508201 512205 516208 520210 525213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 519253 515243 510232 506221 502210 499206
      493206 483207 479208 476210 472216 473219 475222 477225
      475228 467235 460239 458242 461243 465242 474248 480251
      483256 488264 493276 496286 497292 503295 507294 510291
      514285 516279 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405022 408021 411019 413018 415015 416013
      417010
 0.25 406875 405872 403869 400871 398873 397874 394876 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 403880
      404878 406875
 0.25 396048 396046 396043 396042 395041 394039 394038 393036
      393035 392034 391033 389033 389034 387036 387038 388040
      389042 389043 390044 391045 392047 393048 394048 395048
      396048
 0.25 363749 363738 361729 357723 352721 341716 336717 332719
      328722 321733 319741 319748 320754 320763 320768 322773
      326775 333773 338770 347767 352764 360756 363749
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 308827 307822 305814 302812 299813 292814 284812
      277812 265806 260806 255807 255811 257813 255821 254825
      255830 260836 264841 274850 281854 287854 296853 301848
      306843 308835 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 279082 274081 271083
      271088 274092 277094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300948 299945 294941 290936 285935 272938 265940
      259939 257941 256945 255952 254961 253968 255974 259978
      264984 266986 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 518167 517170 516173
      512171 510170 508172 506176 506181 509189 513195 516203
      522205 526205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 518259 516254 513247 505229 501218 494212 485213
      483217 486220 489224 491228 494237 501245 503248 502251
      500254 498254 495250 493245 490244 486244 485248 486250
      489254 491258 494267 497276 499282 501286 505288 509287
      518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356746 354737 350733 344729 339727 338723 334723 330726
      326731 323736 327738 330736 332733 338731 338736 329744
      327751 327760 332765 338765 344761 349758 354753 356747
      356746
 0.50 303838 303831 302826 299822 296821 285822 276824 270825
      266827 263830 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301841 303838
 0.50 293956 294950 292946 289943 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259959 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501235 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 293832 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830 270833
      272836 274840 277842 282844 285844 290841 292839 294836
 1.50 287837 287835 286834 284834 283833 282833 280833 280834
      279836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284839 285839 286839
      287837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 427933 426931 424931 423933 424934 426934 427933
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 312151
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
550 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 2150Z MON AUG 31 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW BKV 30 NNE VVG 10 E DAB 15 NE TTS MLB 35 SE BOW 25 E SRQ
20 SW SPG 25 WNW PIE 30 NW BKV.


21Z UPDATE...

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES/CAM)...HAVE REMOVED THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEPER CONVECTION (BEST INSTABILITY) HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WHILE
THE ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND ON THE BACKSIDE IS MORE STRATIFORM BASED.
PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS...THE LIMITING STREAMLINE
(BACK EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MOISTURE) IS NEARING
THE CAROLINA COAST...AS IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM W-E
LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH.

OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A FAIRLY WEAK SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE
EXISTS FROM THIS POINT (LATE AFTERNOON) INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. THIS OUTLOOK AREA IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
TRACK OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY (MCV) CENTER...WHICH
WOULD BENEFIT THE MOST FROM ANY SMALL-SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WERE MODEST AT BEST HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY AREAS OF CLOUD TOP COOLING AND ENHANCED (HEAVIER) RAINFALL
RATES. DESPITE MODERATE AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY
(SURFACE-BASED CAPES 2000-3000+ J/KG)...THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED/ROBUST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE CONVECTION
TO REMAIN A BIT UNORGANIZED AND AS SUCH FAIRLY MIGRATORY/OUTFLOW
DOMINANT WITH VERY LITTLE TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW DOES PICK UP OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE IN SERIOUS DOUBT (BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV)...WHILE THE MUCAPES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


15Z UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREAS WAS A SLIGHT TRIMMING OF WRN
PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS THE CAROLINAS AS BEST MSTR
CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE WEAK MID
LEVEL VORT CONTS TO LIFT NEWD INTO SRN VA GIVING A VERY SLIGHT AND
TEMPORARY EWD NUDGE TO N/S UPR SHEAR AXIS.


FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC

THE CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE
WELL DEFINED VORT THAT WILL  CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH
TIME--BUT STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG MOIST (PW VALUES 2.00-2.25"+) SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST PUSH OF
PRECIP---WITH THE OVERALL MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND CMC GEM.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS
THESE AREAS---SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTH
TO NORTH DIRECTION POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING PERIOD---IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.


WEST CENTRAL COASTAL FL

ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
COASTAL AREA OF FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
VORT MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA---THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS VORT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS.  SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING REGIONS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA AND IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL VORT.   THIS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.


ORAVEC/SULLIVAN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 312151
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
550 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...VALID 2150Z MON AUG 31 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 01 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW BKV 30 NNE VVG 10 E DAB 15 NE TTS MLB 35 SE BOW 25 E SRQ
20 SW SPG 25 WNW PIE 30 NW BKV.


21Z UPDATE...

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES/CAM)...HAVE REMOVED THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEPER CONVECTION (BEST INSTABILITY) HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WHILE
THE ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND ON THE BACKSIDE IS MORE STRATIFORM BASED.
PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS...THE LIMITING STREAMLINE
(BACK EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MOISTURE) IS NEARING
THE CAROLINA COAST...AS IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM W-E
LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH.

OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A FAIRLY WEAK SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE
EXISTS FROM THIS POINT (LATE AFTERNOON) INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. THIS OUTLOOK AREA IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
TRACK OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY (MCV) CENTER...WHICH
WOULD BENEFIT THE MOST FROM ANY SMALL-SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WERE MODEST AT BEST HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY AREAS OF CLOUD TOP COOLING AND ENHANCED (HEAVIER) RAINFALL
RATES. DESPITE MODERATE AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY
(SURFACE-BASED CAPES 2000-3000+ J/KG)...THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED/ROBUST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE CONVECTION
TO REMAIN A BIT UNORGANIZED AND AS SUCH FAIRLY MIGRATORY/OUTFLOW
DOMINANT WITH VERY LITTLE TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW DOES PICK UP OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE IN SERIOUS DOUBT (BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV)...WHILE THE MUCAPES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE.

HURLEY


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


15Z UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREAS WAS A SLIGHT TRIMMING OF WRN
PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS THE CAROLINAS AS BEST MSTR
CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE WEAK MID
LEVEL VORT CONTS TO LIFT NEWD INTO SRN VA GIVING A VERY SLIGHT AND
TEMPORARY EWD NUDGE TO N/S UPR SHEAR AXIS.


FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC

THE CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE
WELL DEFINED VORT THAT WILL  CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH
TIME--BUT STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG MOIST (PW VALUES 2.00-2.25"+) SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST PUSH OF
PRECIP---WITH THE OVERALL MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND CMC GEM.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS
THESE AREAS---SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTH
TO NORTH DIRECTION POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING PERIOD---IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.


WEST CENTRAL COASTAL FL

ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
COASTAL AREA OF FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
VORT MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA---THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS VORT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS.  SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING REGIONS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA AND IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL VORT.   THIS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.


ORAVEC/SULLIVAN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 312050
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 312050
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 312050
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 312050
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


DAYS 2/3...

...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AROUND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE
WEAK...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...SUGGESTING LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 3
BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HERE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APPALACHIANS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....THE USUAL DIURNALLY
FOCUSED CONVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANY AREAS
WHERE COLD POOLS CONVERGE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY RAISE AMOUNTS NOT DEPICTED ON THE GRAPHIC. TENDED TO
FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE UTILIZING THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME OF THE MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

STARTING IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP SPARK
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW 850-MB WINDS PICKING UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ADVECTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT AIR INTO
IA/MN. ONE ISSUE THAT MAY NEGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS POSSIBLE CAPPING IN SOME OF THE PROXIMITY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...A WEST-TO-EAST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HELP CARRY A THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF COMBINED WITH AN
AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES
ADVECTING TOWARD THE TX COAST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS REMAINED LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
CARRYING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY INLAND. THE GRAPHIC WAS DRIVEN BY A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE MX BORDER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LEADING TO DAILY INSTANCES OF CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE SURGE AS PWATS ONLY CREEP INTO THE 1.25
INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERALL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION DISORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR
ELEMENTS WHICH ARE AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER WINDS
DO APPEAR TO BE MORE DIFFLUENT FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE.
OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE
12Z NAM AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THE MODELS AS A WHOLE REMAINED
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF AXIS...JUST IN AMOUNTS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PERSISTENT/DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY. A SHARP BAND OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTENSIFYING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS
DEPICT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF STRONGER PVA...MODEST PWATS IN THE 0.75 TO 1
INCH RANGE DO SPREAD INTO WA/OR WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPINGING ON THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DRAGGING AN
IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. MUCH OF THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES WHERE
THE BETTER ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP.
EVENTUALLY THIS OVERLAPS SPREADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
MT ON DAY 3. TENDED TO USE THE WPC PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED QPF
HERE...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM THE HI RES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BETTER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTION.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 479617 483621 486626 491636 495645 498659 502695 505725
      506734 506741 506748 505757 504761 504767 502778 492799
      489803 489808 491810 492818 491825 489832 486844 483852
      479860 475865 470866 464866 461863 455858 452855 449850
      448835 451823 454814 455808 454801 448791 446785 445777
      446772 448768 452760 455755 456748 457742 456734 455721
      457710 460697 458681 458669 457662 456655 452648 450640
      450633 451627
 0.01 538216 540205 541192 542186 544182 547174 548167 550158
      551151 550144 546136 542132 537137 534142 529155 526155
      523153 517151 511146 503143 495142 492137 486134 483130
      479132 480137 481141 480143 477144 470145 464146 463151
      462157 460163 457168 451171 449175 444191 446194 448193
      452187 460182 463178 468175 475173 479173 482176 487182
      488191 486197 481200 471203 427220 424220 422221 422224
      426225 427230 425233 418234 414238 417243 429250 432252
      436253 442250 446251 448254 452255 453258 458258 463257
      465256 469256 476259 479261 481265 485271 490286 492292
      495296 501299 507298 512292 516284 521272 521269 522267
      522264 523262 523259 524257 524254 525252 526249 527247
      527244 528242 529240 530237 530235 531232 532230 533228
      534227 535225 535223 536221 536220
 0.01 528965 528955 527949 525946 522943 513939 506934 503930
      499926 492924 489927 487932 484937 482942 480955 477964
      476974 475980 475994 476001 478007 480010 485010 492003
      495993 497988 498980 499975 504974 512978 520978 524975
      526971 528965
 0.01 475109 473103 470100 471095 471091 469088 467090 464097
      461101 461108 457108 457111 460114 464115 465117 469118
      471115 473111 475109
 0.01 459876 457871 455869 451875 447880 442886 436891 431892
      428893 423898 420907 419917 419923 420927 422931 419931
      417930 414932 409940 403945 395956 386970 383977 380985
      382992 385995 388994 392993 396994 403997 410992 416987
      421982 425978 428973 430969 431959 431952 437949 443943
      447936 450929 451924 449920 445920 444917 445914 449907
      453901 455893 458883 459876
 0.01 419839 419830 417825 416820 416816 414814 415807 415797
      412795 411790 410784 407777 405775 400775 396776 393775
      385768 380766 374769 367777 366781 367786 368793 363803
      352803 354817 352824 349829 348835 352838 355837 357834
      359832 362830 367832 369833 370831 372823 380821 383821
      385825 386827 387831 388834 391837 396839 406845 411847
      413849 415848 418846 418844 419839
 0.01 413075 414063 412060 411054 410049 406049 399050 396050
      394048 390047 381046 376045 373046 371043 369043 369048
      361052 358053 357058 368059 372057 376060 374063 370063
      367066 369069 372076 374081 377085 382088 389085 394085
      396087 402088 404086 406083 409080 413075
 0.01 372718 370707 370702 368699 364692 360689 356687 351686
      346685 340688 336690 334692 327695 316703 313707 312712
      311719 308724 307733 309743 310752 309760 308765 305769
      295775 285785 281790 274793 268790 263790 253795 246798
      241802 236806 234811 235824 244832 248837 252843 256848
      260852 267858 275866 285875 297879 303880 308882 321881
      326877 329876 330872 331867 328860 326855 324849 323841
      324832 330819 333813 336807 338802 340796 344785 351773
      355766 359763 367755 370750 372745 373741 372736 371733
      371729 371723 372718
 0.01 362092 356080 355072 352068 347065 344062 344054 347048
      353037 353032 353030 349026 343026 340028 337034 333038
      332041 329042 326043 322043 320041 317041 315043 314047
      316052 319057 321061 322067 320071 318073 315075 311074
      305072 299073 294074 287074 275071 260068 254059 249049
      244040 240035 239033 235033 229034 227040 226053 228065
      230072 233077 239087 245095 248099 252101 258105 264108
      270110 276111 286109 293109 294115 297122 302126 310127
      316126 332119 343127 347124 351119 354117 355111 352106
      352102 354098 360094 362092
 0.01 355932 352921 350916 346912 343908 339907 333908 329911
      321917 317921 315925 313930 314935 317939 323940 330939
      334937 339934 344936 348939 352938 355932
 0.01 323967 323960 321956 314951 308947 309939 308933 305930
      303928 299930 296932 293930 287925 283915 279908 274902
      269896 258884 254883 251882 241883 234888 232891 231897
      231905 231914 234937 235942 234947 232955 234995 236000
      239003 245008 254009 261013 266014 272014 278008 279005
      279000 280995 282992 293991 301987 312979 323967
 0.25 533222 535215 536208 536196 534186 531178 528170 524164
      513155 511152 507149 504150 502153 497160 493163 489166
      489170 492176 496184 500188 507193 512198 515201 517205
      519214 522222 524225 527226 531224 533222
 0.25 516270 518265 517261 516253 516238 505217 502212 498207
      490204 484205 479207 472212 462216 452216 447217 444219
      444223 449225 453224 457225 460227 461229 461233 454238
      476248 482251 487256 492265 497276 500281 506284 510281
      513276 516270
 0.25 486689 484685 482681 477676 474677 472680 472685 472690
      473702 471710 465707 463709 462713 461718 462724 463735
      465741 467744 469754 471766 472769 476768 479760 479752
      481740 484733 486723 486714 486702 486691 486689
 0.25 496962 496960 496957 496956 495954 494954 492954 491956
      490957 489959 489962 489965 490967 491967 492967 494965
      495965 496963 496962
 0.25 480797 479789 476782 473782 472783 468789 466794 465802
      463809 463817 465818 467816 471812 476807 479802 480797
 0.25 423961 422952 419949 417949 412954 407959 401963 396968
      395974 396979 402982 408981 414977 418970 421964 423961
 0.25 395791 393787 390785 386783 382784 380787 378791 377796
      374801 374805 378805 381803 385800 388798 392796 395792
      395791
 0.25 342713 341704 337700 333700 330702 325705 320712 316723
      315729 316736 319751 321756 321763 321768 319774 309796
      303802 295807 288808 282806 273801 268800 264801 256807
      256810 256814 260818 266821 267822 271822 277824 272824
      267823 261821 256823 256825 257827 262829 267836 272846
      286864 294868 298870 304869 308866 312861 313846 314834
      316823 327801 331792 332778 336767 339761 340755 341744
      341730 341720 342713
 0.25 342089 343087 343086 342085 342083 341081 339081 338082
      338084 337086 338089 338091 340093 342091 342089
 0.25 324106 322102 320099 314097 309097 305100 306104 308108
      310113 312116 318117 320114 322108 324106
 0.25 293096 291089 289085 286084 279081 272078 263077 260079
      258082 259086 261088 267092 272096 277097 281097 287098
      290098 293096
 0.25 294956 292950 288945 285942 282937 278923 273914 268910
      263907 259905 253903 246906 244907 242911 243918 246923
      249928 247935 244945 243955 243961 244974 238985 238992
      240996 251002 257003 260000 261986 265983 270980 276980
      282977 286974 288970 292962 294956
 0.50 532219 533213 533207 533200 533195 531192 528187 525181
      524174 516165 511162 506161 497167 494169 495174 498179
      507187 518193 521199 522205 523214 526220 529221 532219
 0.50 512260 513253 514246 512238 511233 508230 505223 501216
      496211 493209 489208 483209 477212 473216 474220 478222
      484226 488228 490231 494238 497245 502250 504254 502257
      499256 495257 495263 497267 501273 504276 506275 507264
      511262 512260
 0.50 420959 419957 418956 417956 416956 415956 414957 412958
      412959 410961 410963 410966 410967 412967 414966 416964
      416963 417963 419961 420959
 0.50 335714 336709 334706 330708 325712 322715 319721 319729
      321735 324737 327737 330731 331726 333719 335714
 0.50 324801 324797 324793 322790 320791 319794 317797 316799
      314801 313804 311807 311809 312811 315812 317811 320808
      322806 323803 324801
 0.50 308827 307821 304819 297817 288816 283816 281814 278811
      276811 273809 271810 267810 265813 271816 283819 295828
      293830 289829 285829 281831 277834 276838 278846 284852
      289856 295857 298854 302848 305846 307841 306831 308827
 0.50 288093 286091 284089 282088 280086 277084 275083 272082
      270085 271088 273089 276092 278093 282094 285093 288093
 0.50 283958 283950 281945 275935 274927 272923 268919 267921
      264922 257931 254936 253941 253950 252956 251960 252963
      257965 263966 268970 270971 274971 278968 283958
 0.50 253994 254992 253991 253990 251989 250988 248987 246987
      245988 244988 243990 244992 246993 247994 248994 249995
      251995 253995 253994
 1.00 509243 508238 506237 501234 499224 495218 493215 491213
      486211 484212 480215 479218 486221 491223 492225 494230
      497232 499235 500240 507244 509243
 1.00 296843 296840 295840 295838 293837 292837 292836 290836
      288836 286837 284839 284842 285844 287845 288845 290846
      292846 294845 296843 296843

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 525260 527236 530224 535218 539210 540204 541196 539186
      536179 534175 534169 536158 532151 526145 523141 521138
      524129 526124 525121 520114 517112 517108 523102 532090
      534084 535076 535068 533064 528063 520067 510075 505080
      502083 498084 493092 490096 487097 481100 478103 473102
      468100 464101 461104 452118 442133 440137 440143 440148
      443152 436169 435174 438176 446175 473163 477158 477166
      475169 476174 479177 484184 486195 484202 480203 475205
      468210 462212 457212 455213 447214 444217 442218 442222
      444226 448225 450229 450233 449237 448244 452245 452251
      451256 450263 448266 446270 444277 445280 449281 473262
      477264 479267 482275 482281 484286 489293 490297 495299
      500301 503300 507294 509288 510281 510276 511273 514274
      517274 520271
 0.01 516230 517227 516225 516224 514223 513222 511221 510222
      509225 509227 510230 511233 513233 515232 516230
 0.01 520897 516887 513882 510879 506875 503872 492871 488873
      481873 470871 466870 462866 457854 453847 446838 446823
      446814 447807 448803 450801 451794 451785 451782 453780
      458781 462778 465773 467767 468761 468756 470743 473729
      475724 476717 477714 478710 477702 475696 472693 466693
      461697 455699 453703 450708 445710 440711 439717 439722
      439725 435722 430723 427728 426741 429755 423767 422768
      422773 422777 420780 417783 415786 414788 413793 414800
      416807 415811 413812 406819 400820 395819 392821 388826
      387832 387836 389838 391842 397846 400846 400850 398857
      397863 396867 400873 404876 409875 424926 428924 427928
      419935 403949 401954 397959 390968 384976 382981 382988
      387995 394000 404996 411989 423968 430961 437953 442947
      449937 449930 448924 444919 440916 442909 443899 443893
      443889 446889 451890 456893 463898 470903 477910 485919
      487924 491927 494932 499937 503937 506937 507934 509929
      509921 510918 511913 512909 515908 518903 520897
 0.01 501124 502121 500120 499121 497122 496123 495124 494125
      493127 492130 493132 494134 496134 497133 498131 498130
      499128 500126 501124
 0.01 503057 503052 502049 500048 498049 496051 494054 493056
      491058 490063 490068 492071 496069 497067 499065 501062
      502059 503057
 0.01 226046 225056 225066 227070 229073 236078 241085 245092
      248100 252107 257112 264116 274117 278116 283116 291122
      298126 305129 310131 314135 323127 326124 331124 334126
      337125 340126 340129 343131 346131 348127 349122 352119
      354117 351112 349111 348108 345097 345093 346089 351096
      354098 360098 362095 362091 357084 356078 358073 362072
      367073 371075 373078 374083 378085 381084 385081 393082
      399076 401074 401071 399069 396069 391068 388069 386066
      389055 390051 388047 379046 377046 374044 370043 366050
      360055 357060 356064 351070 348071 343071 337071 334068
      336064 340062 345057 351051 357046 359042 361036 361031
      360027 355022 349022 346024 340028 335035 332039 327040
      322044 320048 317050 315047 311049 310060 312064 315067
      316071 318073 316075 315079 311079 306074 300068 292063
      285065 277068 272067 269065 262060 255055 249050 241036
      239031 234029 229031 227037
 0.01 388781 385772 379765 376764 372765 372772 371777 370781
      367784 362791 361796 363800 367807 372801 377794 384788
      388781
 0.01 388815 387811 387808 385806 382807 380807 376810 376812
      377817 377819 381821 383821 386820 386818 388815
 0.01 360821 357817 353816 348819 344822 337831 334836 330839
      326842 322842 320841 320837 322830 326818 328813 329807
      331802 334798 341790 344785 344778 344776 343773 343766
      343760 342752 340747 337744 322724 318722 313722 306723
      303725 303727 302730 302734 304740 305747 306754 304765
      302771 299775 294780 288782 281783 275781 267779 262777
      255778 251781 248786 247791 248797 250799 248802 245807
      243810 244818 246824 247833 249838 253842 258848 265856
      270859 274862 277866 281871 281876 278877 274875 261876
      256876 252879 245887 242891 240895 238902 238907 235913
      234919 232931 231944 231959 233964 232972 232981 232989
      235998 237004 241007 246008 250006 255002 260000 264999
      271999 275995 277991 277987 276985 276980 277976 281973
      286971 290973 294971 297967 300962 301957 302948 307938
      312929 321924 323922 327923 332926 334926 337924 336919
      334914 336910 342900 344895 342890 337887 333886 314896
      310900 306903 304904 302900 302891 316885 320881 323877
      329868 334855 338850 342848 346845 349841 355832 360821
 0.25 532205 533200 531195 528188 523182 521178 518175 515169
      514158 513140 512138 508138 506142 505148 504151 501152
      495157 491162 489170 493177 498183 504187 506190 508195
      511202 515208 517212 520214 524214 527212 532205
 0.25 507250 505243 503236 496226 494220 490215 486212 481211
      471217 466218 462220 459227 460229 462233 467231 471226
      475224 482225 485226 487228 490234 493240 498244 507250
 0.25 494251 494250 494248 493246 491244 490242 489242 488241
      487242 486243 485246 486248 487250 489252 490253 491253
      492252 493253 494251
 0.25 493112 492104 490103 488106 483110 478114 467115 465121
      461126 457131 453138 451147 451152 453156 458158 463156
      468152 473146 482139 484130 487123 493112
 0.25 455740 454737 454736 452736 450737 449738 447736 447737
      448739 447740 447741 448742 449742 450743 451745 453744
      454742 455740
 0.25 447863 447860 446860 445858 445857 443856 443855 441855
      439856 438857 436858 435859 435861 436863 436864 438865
      439866 440866 442866 443866 445865 447863 447863
 0.25 432835 432833 432831 431829 430828 429827 428829 427829
      427831 427834 427836 428836 430837 431836 432835
 0.25 416959 416956 414956 413956 412957 410958 410959 409961
      410963 410964 412964 413963 414962 415961 416960 416959
 0.25 334114 334112 334110 333108 332105 332104 331103 330101
      329101 328100 327100 325100 324102 323104 323106 323108
      324110 326111 327112 329113 330114 331115 333116 334114
 0.25 328790 327783 323779 319779 316781 312784 306793 303797
      298801 293805 291810 285809 278810 268815 265816 263818
      265822 267824 271826 274827 276826 281823 287825 288830
      289838 292845 293853 298863 301867 305869 309865 312861
      313854 311848 310842 309833 309824 311820 315817 319812
      325802 328790
 0.25 320119 321117 321115 321112 321110 320109 319108 317108
      316108 315107 313107 311107 310108 308109 308111 308113
      309114 310115 311116 312117 313118 314118 316119 318120
      319119 320119
 0.25 315092 306083 299074 294071 289074 284077 280082 278089
      275096 274100 273099 270096 267095 264097 263101 267107
      272108 279105 284108 286106 286102 287097 291091 295091
      299092 305095 312095 315092
 0.25 297937 299932 298927 294921 286909 281904 275901 268904
      263909 257921 252937 249943 248950 250954 252957 254960
      257960 263958 267956 272958 279959 285956 289950 294944
      297937
 0.25 252067 250061 247056 243052 240048 238043 235039 232043
      232051 233057 236061 240065 245066 250067 252067
 0.50 512181 511178 510175 509172 507169 506165 505163 502161
      499162 498165 496169 496174 498177 500178 503180 506182
      508183 510183 512181
 0.50 480127 480122 477123 474124 471125 470126 468128 467132
      468135 469137 472139 474139 477137 478134 479130 480127
 0.50 466144 466142 465142 463142 461143 459145 459148 459149
      461148 462149 463149 464147 465147 466145 466144
 0.50 323795 322791 320789 317789 315790 307800 302804 299806
      299811 293822 293839 299851 303855 306850 306833 305826
      304822 305816 309816 315813 319808 322802 323795
 0.50 306089 306087 303085 302082 301080 300077 298075 294074
      292077 294081 295083 297085 300086 302089 303089 306089
      306089

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 311814
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 311814
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
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      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
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      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
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      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
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      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
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      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
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      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234