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000
FXUS04 KWBC 092105
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...18Z UPDATE...

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE TO REDUCE AMOUNTS JUST
SLIGHTLY TO THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA AND NJ BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH CAME IN A BIT DRIER...AND
ALSO WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A RATHER DISORGANIZED
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1
QPF.

ORRISON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH RH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH ONE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST COAST AND ULTIMATELY
PASSING WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT PER THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WHILE GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS DEPICT A RATHER WEAK/STRUNG-OUT CIRCULATION
WITH THIS LOW OFF THE COAST...AS THE GFS/PARALLEL GFS/UKMET/CMC
DEPICT A SURFACE REFLECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BETWEEN 12-18Z WED WHILE THE NAM AN ECMWF ARE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WPC OPTED CLOSER TO A NON-NAM/NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH
THE QPF...WHICH LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (TO
0.25+ INCH) FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG LONG
ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND EASTERN MASS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL FOSTER PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE FIRST PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THE INITIAL SYSTEM
IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A MAJOR LIMITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IS MEAGER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PWATS BEGIN AROUND 0.25 INCHES BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW
0.10 INCHES AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MANY OF THE LAKE SURFACES
ARE NEARLY ICE-FREE WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HELP MAXIMIZE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ANY INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS WITH THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT.
OVERALL...THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM/NAM CONUS NEST AND 09Z SREF
MEAN. DID MAKE ADD SOME MANUAL ENHANCEMENTS IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO GIVEN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN
NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IN MODELS IS FOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. A COMPROMISE OF MODELS
WAS USED FOR DAY 2 GIVEN SIMILAR FORECASTS WHILE MOVING MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERN CA...

THE WESTERN FLANK OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORING THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
MIGRATES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS FORECAST A PRETTY
SUFFICIENT SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND...COURTESY OF A 40 TO 50 KNOT SW LLJ. THERE IS A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPAWN A BROAD
AXIS LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WA/OR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
EVENTUALLY SPREADS RAINFALL INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
DAY 3. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CA WITH THE 12Z NAM REMAINING
ONE OF THE LIGHTER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN IT REDUCES MOISTURE CONTENT
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION...FELT INCLINED TO
REMOVE IT DURING THE DAY 3 FORECAST. WPC FAVORED A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 557080 552081 545080 540078 531071 522062 502046
      492038 482030 478024 474019 466011 455003 446996 437986
      434981 430976 421968 413959 405947 397938 387929 380920
      373908 372902 374899 376898 379897 382899 385900 387901
      396908 416924 433942 443951 453956 474967 497980 507987
      516992 520993 523996 529999 532002 537008 555022 559026
      561032 564038 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 499215 496212
      491211 483209 478209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226
      468225 471223 476219 481219 485222 489229 487234 483235
      479229 474228 470230 463231 460233 457231 451235 448236
      445240 438242 432241 427238 426237 423239 420246 423249
      427252 418253 415254 414258 416261 422264 429264 434263
      435267 437270 441271 456269 467273 476276 492286 497290
      503292 508293 513291
 0.01 518798 517772 516760 513754 512747 510738 508718 507709
      505705 504700 499689 494671 487660 483656 480655 476654
      471655 470661 467674 466682 464689 458689 453688 448684
      443679 441674 437670 431660 422648 420647 417648 415650
      412651 408655 403658 392664 385662 381663 373666 367669
      362671 358674 351676 347681 338692 330700 326705 323710
      318719 307737 303750 300764 299772 298776 300779 303785
      306789 327779 332776 336772 340769 342765 347760 351753
      357743 358740 361738 369741 375740 382741 388750 393763
      398775 398783 395787 389791 384796 378805 373810 365813
      360817 357821 344840 338847 338856 341859 346862 350862
      353864 366860 369860 372858 381857 389857 394860 401867
      405871 411872 420879 427879 434877 445873 449871 454873
      459876 461879 461885 459891 459901 461906 465911 469913
      471906 475893 478886 482880 484874 484870 479857 474851
      468847 466846 464840 466833 467829 469831 473835 477839
      482841 488842 490843 493843 500842 504836 510830 513827
      514824 515817 517806 518798
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 497235
      498239 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246 489241
      486241 485244 482252 480254 480257 485262 488267 492274
      496279 500282 503283 507282 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527028 525024 519018 511014 509011 506007 498003
      490002 490005 493010 498016 502019 503024 506028 509032
      515036 518038 523039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 444737 442737 441738 440740 441741 442740 444737 444737
 0.25 445761 445754 441750 441745 437743 436746 433750 430753
      429756 430759 432764 434766 438770 440773 443769 444764
      445761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 444810 444804 443801 443793 442788 440786 438791 437800
      436804 434804 430803 429799 431790 431783 429780 425780
      419793 416800 414807 414815 416818 419816 422814 424816
      427822 433825 438825 441823 442819 443810 444810
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 416703 408707 405710 403710
      394692 391681 387675 382673 377674 370678 356688 344700
      334712 330721 327728 320743 317753 315761 312766 314768
      320766 324763 327760 331754 338739 342730 349726 360724
      369722 378721 381722 384726 390733 396737 400738 405736
      411731 414729 416724 418716 419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385800 383802 381804
      381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806 390803
      391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389718 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381695 381693 381690 381688 381686 380684 379683 378684
      377687 376688 376689 375691 375692 374694 374695 373697
      373699 375701 377702 379702 380700 381697 381695

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 536210 538203 536198 534193 532189 525174 522170 518169
      511168 505163 501162 498163 495165 490164 487161 485158
      481157 480160 481164 484166 489173 494174 497177 501178
      505181 510187 517192 521199 524209 526214 528217 536210
 0.01 545098 538072 532061 529055 526052 518043 514039 512035
      498016 491010 486007 483007 482009 478012 479018 483030
      486035 488041 493053 499062 502067 505070 519091 526097
      536102 541100 545098
 0.01 520271 523257 523244 520234 516226 512217 507209 504202
      499199 494198 491195 488195 480198 473200 470204 469207
      465210 462210 455215 451224 445229 439235 435243 431251
      429255 425257 411263 407265 405269 401277 400284 401288
      404296 408299 412301 422304 430307 438305 443307 447310
      455314 465318 472315 477312 481310 486311 493311 496310
      499307 505302 510294 520271
 0.01 476692 474687 470683 462680 460679 459675 459668 461662
      461657 459644 455640 451639 445640 442643 435647 431650
      414662 403666 393670 388673 383673 379672 374672 368674
      364677 356685 350693 347696 345701 343706 341711 340722
      340728 337733 332739 318756 315759 313765 315769 318772
      328769 333767 338764 354754 360752 365753 373756 376754
      379753 384750 391744 397742 400740 405737 408733 420716
      428710 431706 434706 437708 437711 436714 430716 427725
      421743 417747 415753 417770 416773 414774 410776 407779
      402781 398785 394787 390790 386793 372808 364814 360818
      357822 358828 361827 368820 381818 388813 396808 402809
      405813 410823 413828 418831 422830 425826 430824 434826
      443832 447834 451833 462816 468814 472811 481805 483800
      483795 483789 481784 478778 474774 473768 469764 463759
      459756 457749 456747 456742 458739 460732 460727 461720
      462713 471706 474703 475699 476692
 0.01 485882 485873 484866 482860 480857 480852 478846 476842
      472840 466841 460842 457842 454840 450840 447843 445849
      441852 437855 431857 425855 423850 420846 418849 417852
      414853 412859 412864 414869 417873 421875 426876 430876
      440873 445869 450867 454866 457869 460874 462881 462889
      463896 467900 470899 477892 483884 485882
 0.01 403922 403912 399905 396899 390892 386888 383881 379873
      375866 371862 368859 365858 363856 360858 358860 359865
      362872 361881 368894 376907 385918 389922 393925 396925
      403922
 0.01 359834 358832 357830 356829 355830 354830 353832 353833
      352835 352836 351837 351840 351842 352843 354842 354841
      355840 356839 357837 359834
 0.25 516265 517258 516254 513247 508232 501218 500214 497211
      489209 481208 475209 466219 458231 452232 447236 445240
      445244 442249 434259 423266 418272 415279 415289 419294
      423296 427296 433295 445290 457287 469284 476284 482283
      487282 494283 500282 506279 508274 510269 514267 516265
 0.25 442669 440668 436670 435672 432674 430677 429680 431683
      435681 436680 438678 440675 442672 442669
 0.25 438760 437758 435756 434756 433756 432758 431759 431762
      431764 432766 433767 435768 436766 436765 437763 437762
      438760
 0.25 437818 437817 437816 435814 434814 433813 431812 430813
      429814 430815 432816 434818 435819 437818 437818
 0.25 424798 423795 421792 419791 418793 416796 415800 415804
      415807 415812 417811 419809 421807 422804 423801 424798
 0.25 393704 392698 390691 388685 385682 374681 370685 368690
      364701 360710 357715 356721 357725 360728 371727 376726
      381722 388716 391711 393706 393704
 0.50 511260 511252 509245 506239 503233 497220 494218 490218
      488221 489224 489229 488232 486234 482233 476228 473227
      471228 466232 463237 460244 456249 452253 447257 443260
      438264 434269 429272 425275 421279 422285 425287 429288
      435287 440285 461276 471274 477273 482272 487268 492267
      499270 501267 501262 502257 505255 509259 511260
 0.50 379702 377696 377689 375688 372690 370696 368703 365708
      362713 363717 370717 375714 378708 379702
 1.00 497255 493248 489242 485240 483241 480238 478235 474234
      470241 468253 467256 467259 468260 476258 481255 488256
      495256 497255

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 525260 523251 519241 517232 514225 510218 507215 507209
      509206 514207 517211 521213 525214 528218 533220 537215
      538211 538205 538200 537196 536195 531188 527179 524171
      518164 513162 509154 505148 498144 495142 492137 488131
      483129 480126 474130 470138 471141 475142 479143 481147
      477148 473146 466142 462143 459143 462151 461158 464162
      466167 467172 469172 473172 474176 474186 472190 469192
      460194 458192 457189 458185 462181 462176 458175 456174
      454170 454166 450165 445169 448174 452177 453179 452182
      447181 443183 441184 439187 439197 440201 439203 436205
      431208 426207 424205 422207 422210 421217 418219 415216
      412216 407220 407223 404226 397228 393227 389225 388225
      388228 390232 390236 391242 390249 390260 389264 391268
      394271 399272 413274 431273 440276 448276 455276 463274
      470275 476279 482283 491288 494291 498291 506291 514284
      521272
 0.01 546095 544079 541073 537069 533064 528059 520049 506029
      500018 495013 492008 478987 474982 471977 462964 459962
      454955 451950 449945 443933 436918 429908 427904 423900
      416901 413901 411900 405898 402903 400910 400921 401930
      402936 404943 408949 412954 417957 422961 426966 431970
      433974 437979 441983 445990 448995 460018 468027 470029
      474029 477027 479029 488039 494049 496056 499062 503068
      505072 507073 514085 517090 521094 530103 532106 535107
      538107 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 474634 474628 472623 465624 460626 457630 452636 442647
      435649 426649 423648 418648 411649 401652 398655 395656
      386660 379664 371669 365675 360680 356687 353695 351704
      353716 356723 362729 368732 377733 385732 390730 393728
      400723 406717 410711 413703 418700 423701 430699 435694
      445679 448677 451674 456668 459659 461656 465652 468649
      471643 474634
 0.01 484872 476845 474840 473832 472823 468823 465829 465837
      463843 460842 457840 448837 446838 444840 441845 437849
      435852 432852 427848 422848 419848 418851 417856 420861
      424865 427867 432869 443868 450865 452865 455867 459871
      461874 459878 456889 457895 462900 466901 471900 477890
      484872
 0.01 466735 460713 462701 461695 459692 445701 443703 440709
      437712 437719 435724 432727 428726 425727 425732 427737
      428741 426743 423744 420742 417750 413756 409777 407782
      403785 397791 390796 386797 383801 380804 382810 387809
      389807 396800 399800 400798 406797 407799 408803 408810
      410814 411819 417826 420827 424825 430819 436824 444829
      448831 450833 454833 455828 456816 457810 458803 458797
      458791 460780 463771 464765 463760 459751 458748 459745
      462743 466735
 0.01 449192 449190 447188 446189 444191 443193 442195 443197
      445197 446197 447197 448194 449192
 0.25 520266 521260 521255 518247 512231 504216 500209 493204
      490202 486202 482201 479203 473205 467209 454215 450220
      443224 437226 429226 423230 420228 417229 410230 405235
      401241 400246 402249 408255 414257 429256 442252 448251
      458252 464257 468259 472260 479261 484268 494280 501284
      505285 509283 513280 515275 520266
 0.25 522194 523190 522186 519180 518177 514172 510169 504167
      495163 485158 482156 480156 479160 479165 480170 483176
      487177 491181 498190 504191 508195 518195 521196 522194
 0.50 519266 520260 519255 516248 512239 510232 506225 503218
      498212 495210 491208 483205 477206 465214 460217 456222
      454228 452231 446236 442239 436242 421238 419235 415234
      410235 407239 406242 412247 420250 425251 439247 451244
      458243 461243 464244 468246 470250 472253 475255 482258
      488265 496276 502280 508279 511273 513271 517269 519266
 0.50 487231 487230 485228 484227 482225 481224 479224 477225
      477226 477227 477228 478229 480230 481231 481232 483233
      484233 485233 487231 487231
 1.00 516259 509238 498218 490212 484211 477210 475213 478217
      482219 486223 490227 492232 492236 490238 485238 481239
      479235 476232 472234 471237 472240 475244 478249 483252
      496268 501270 501265 497253 494249 494242 498242 502246
      508255 511260 515262 516259
 1.00 473219 471218 470217 469218 469219 471219 473219
 1.50 503236 502230 500227 498222 495219 490219 489215 487215
      486220 489220 491222 492227 493230 495236 499239 502238
      503236
 1.50 495257 494254 494253 492251 492250 491248 491247 490245
      490244 488243 487242 485242 484243 483245 484247 485248
      486249 487250 488252 489252 489255 490255 491257 493258
      495257
 1.50 477238 477237 475237 477239 477238

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 092056
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH RH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH ONE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST COAST AND ULTIMATELY
PASSING WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT PER THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WHILE GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS DEPICT A RATHER WEAK/STRUNG-OUT CIRCULATION
WITH THIS LOW OFF THE COAST...AS THE GFS/PARALLEL GFS/UKMET/CMC
DEPICT A SURFACE REFLECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BETWEEN 12-18Z WED WHILE THE NAM AN ECMWF ARE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WPC OPTED CLOSER TO A NON-NAM/NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH
THE QPF...WHICH LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (TO
0.25+ INCH) FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG LONG
ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND EASTERN MASS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL FOSTER PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE FIRST PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THE INITIAL SYSTEM
IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A MAJOR LIMITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IS MEAGER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PWATS BEGIN AROUND 0.25 INCHES BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW
0.10 INCHES AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MANY OF THE LAKE SURFACES
ARE NEARLY ICE-FREE WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HELP MAXIMIZE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ANY INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS WITH THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT.
OVERALL...THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM/NAM CONUS NEST AND 09Z SREF
MEAN. DID MAKE ADD SOME MANUAL ENHANCEMENTS IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO GIVEN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN
NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IN MODELS IS FOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. A COMPROMISE OF MODELS
WAS USED FOR DAY 2 GIVEN SIMILAR FORECASTS WHILE MOVING MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERN CA...

THE WESTERN FLANK OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORING THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
MIGRATES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS FORECAST A PRETTY
SUFFICIENT SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND...COURTESY OF A 40 TO 50 KNOT SW LLJ. THERE IS A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPAWN A BROAD
AXIS LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WA/OR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
EVENTUALLY SPREADS RAINFALL INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
DAY 3. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CA WITH THE 12Z NAM REMAINING
ONE OF THE LIGHTER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN IT REDUCES MOISTURE CONTENT
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION...FELT INCLINED TO
REMOVE IT DURING THE DAY 3 FORECAST. WPC FAVORED A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 536210 537202 535197 534193 532189 525174 522170 517168
      511168 505163 501161 498163 494165 490164 485158 480157
      480160 482164 484166 490173 494174 497177 502178 504179
      506182 510187 517193 521199 524210 528217 536210
 0.01 545098 543089 541083 540077 538072 531060 529055 526052
      521046 518043 512035 507029 504024 502020 498016 489010
      486007 483007 482009 478012 479020 483030 493053 496058
      499063 505070 519091 527097 536102 542100 545098
 0.01 520271 522264 523255 522248 522242 516226 511216 507208
      502201 494198 491195 487196 479199 473201 469207 465210
      461211 454216 453221 450225 445229 439236 434244 430252
      428255 425257 417260 410264 405269 401277 402288 402292
      404293 406296 413301 422304 427306 431305 436305 440306
      445308 447311 455314 461316 465317 469317 472314 475313
      479311 481309 484310 494309 498309 500306 510294 520271
 0.01 476692 474687 470683 465682 460679 460651 459644 456642
      453639 449639 431650 423656 412663 390673 385674 381672
      376672 370673 365676 362679 356685 350693 346697 344703
      341714 340727 338731 335735 330741 318756 315760 313765
      314768 316770 321772 326769 333767 341762 345759 350758
      357753 375756 393743 404737 411730 415722 419719 421713
      424711 428709 433706 437708 437712 435714 430716 428722
      426727 423729 423732 425734 426736 424739 422743 418745
      416750 416755 417767 417771 414774 410775 406780 403782
      393787 389791 384794 381798 377803 369811 362815 359819
      357822 358828 360827 368820 382818 386815 390811 394809
      399809 402810 404812 407817 411826 415830 418831 422829
      425825 430824 434826 440829 443832 448834 454833 456828
      458822 459818 461817 463814 466814 475810 478807 481807
      483796 483789 481784 468763 463760 459756 458754 457750
      457741 460731 460718 463713 466710 473705 476692
 0.01 485882 485872 485867 483865 481859 480852 478845 475842
      471840 466841 459842 456842 454840 450840 447843 444850
      440853 436855 431857 425855 422849 420846 418849 417852
      413854 412860 412866 414869 417873 422875 430876 437874
      441872 445869 450867 454867 458871 462881 462890 463895
      464897 467900 470899 483884 485882
 0.01 403922 402911 399905 395898 390892 386887 383881 379873
      375866 370861 365858 362856 359858 358860 359865 362873
      361881 365888 368894 376907 385918 390923 393925 396925
      403922
 0.01 359834 358832 357830 356829 355830 354830 353832 353833
      352835 352836 351837 351840 351842 352843 354842 354841
      355840 356839 357837 359834
 0.25 516265 516258 515253 513245 508232 501216 497211 489209
      481208 474209 466219 462226 460230 457231 452232 447236
      445240 444246 440252 431261 425265 420270 416275 415283
      415288 417292 420294 424296 430296 436294 442291 448289
      459287 466285 473285 478284 484282 498283 503281 507277
      509270 512267 516265
 0.25 442669 440668 436670 435671 432674 430677 429680 429681
      431683 435681 436680 438678 440675 442672 442669
 0.25 438760 437758 435756 434756 433756 432758 431759 431762
      431764 431766 433767 435768 436766 436765 437763 437762
      438760
 0.25 437818 437817 437816 435814 434814 433813 431812 430813
      429814 430815 432816 434818 435819 437818 437818
 0.25 424798 423794 422792 419791 418793 416796 415800 415804
      415807 415812 417811 419809 421807 422805 423801 424798
 0.25 393704 392697 390691 389686 386682 381683 377681 374681
      371683 369687 365699 361707 357716 356721 357725 360727
      371727 376726 381722 388716 391711 393706 393704
 0.50 511260 511251 508244 506238 503233 500225 496219 490218
      488221 489224 489230 487233 484234 481232 476228 473227
      471228 466232 464234 462239 459245 456249 451254 446258
      442260 438264 434269 429272 424275 421281 422285 426288
      433288 442284 454280 462276 475274 480273 484271 489267
      497269 500269 501267 501259 504255 507256 509260 511260
 0.50 379702 377698 377691 375688 373689 371693 370698 368703
      366705 363710 362713 363717 368718 373716 376712 378708
      379704 379702
 1.00 497255 493248 489242 485240 482241 480238 478235 474234
      470241 468253 466256 468260 476258 481255 488256 495256
      497255

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 525260 523251 519241 517232 514225 510218 507215 507209
      509206 514207 517211 521213 525214 528218 533220 537215
      538211 538205 538200 537196 536195 531188 527179 524171
      518164 513162 509154 505148 498144 495142 492137 488131
      483129 480126 474130 470138 471141 475142 479143 481147
      477148 473146 466142 462143 459143 462151 461158 464162
      466167 467172 469172 473172 474176 474186 472190 469192
      460194 458192 457189 458185 462181 462176 458175 456174
      454170 454166 450165 445169 448174 452177 453179 452182
      447181 443183 441184 439187 439197 440201 439203 436205
      431208 426207 424205 422207 422210 421217 418219 415216
      412216 407220 407223 404226 397228 393227 389225 388225
      388228 390232 390236 391242 390249 390260 389264 391268
      394271 399272 413274 431273 440276 448276 455276 463274
      470275 476279 482283 491288 494291 498291 506291 514284
      521272
 0.01 546095 544079 541073 537069 533064 528059 520049 506029
      500018 495013 492008 478987 474982 471977 462964 459962
      454955 451950 449945 443933 436918 429908 427904 423900
      416901 413901 411900 405898 402903 400910 400921 401930
      402936 404943 408949 412954 417957 422961 426966 431970
      433974 437979 441983 445990 448995 460018 468027 470029
      474029 477027 479029 488039 494049 496056 499062 503068
      505072 507073 514085 517090 521094 530103 532106 535107
      538107 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 474634 474628 472623 465624 460626 457630 452636 442647
      435649 426649 423648 418648 411649 401652 398655 395656
      386660 379664 371669 365675 360680 356687 353695 351704
      353716 356723 362729 368732 377733 385732 390730 393728
      400723 406717 410711 413703 418700 423701 430699 435694
      445679 448677 451674 456668 459659 461656 465652 468649
      471643 474634
 0.01 484872 476845 474840 473832 472823 468823 465829 465837
      463843 460842 457840 448837 446838 444840 441845 437849
      435852 432852 427848 422848 419848 418851 417856 420861
      424865 427867 432869 443868 450865 452865 455867 459871
      461874 459878 456889 457895 462900 466901 471900 477890
      484872
 0.01 466735 460713 462701 461695 459692 445701 443703 440709
      437712 437719 435724 432727 428726 425727 425732 427737
      428741 426743 423744 420742 417750 413756 409777 407782
      403785 397791 390796 386797 383801 380804 382810 387809
      389807 396800 399800 400798 406797 407799 408803 408810
      410814 411819 417826 420827 424825 430819 436824 444829
      448831 450833 454833 455828 456816 457810 458803 458797
      458791 460780 463771 464765 463760 459751 458748 459745
      462743 466735
 0.01 449192 449190 447188 446189 444191 443193 442195 443197
      445197 446197 447197 448194 449192
 0.25 520266 521260 521255 518247 512231 504216 500209 493204
      490202 486202 482201 479203 473205 467209 454215 450220
      443224 437226 429226 423230 420228 417229 410230 405235
      401241 400246 402249 408255 414257 429256 442252 448251
      458252 464257 468259 472260 479261 484268 494280 501284
      505285 509283 513280 515275 520266
 0.25 522194 523190 522186 519180 518177 514172 510169 504167
      495163 485158 482156 480156 479160 479165 480170 483176
      487177 491181 498190 504191 508195 518195 521196 522194
 0.50 519266 520260 519255 516248 512239 510232 506225 503218
      498212 495210 491208 483205 477206 465214 460217 456222
      454228 452231 446236 442239 436242 421238 419235 415234
      410235 407239 406242 412247 420250 425251 439247 451244
      458243 461243 464244 468246 470250 472253 475255 482258
      488265 496276 502280 508279 511273 513271 517269 519266
 0.50 487231 487230 485228 484227 482225 481224 479224 477225
      477226 477227 477228 478229 480230 481231 481232 483233
      484233 485233 487231 487231
 1.00 516259 509238 498218 490212 484211 477210 475213 478217
      482219 486223 490227 492232 492236 490238 485238 481239
      479235 476232 472234 471237 472240 475244 478249 483252
      496268 501270 501265 497253 494249 494242 498242 502246
      508255 511260 515262 516259
 1.00 473219 471218 470217 469218 469219 471219 473219
 1.50 503236 502230 500227 498222 495219 490219 489215 487215
      486220 489220 491222 492227 493230 495236 499239 502238
      503236
 1.50 495257 494254 494253 492251 492250 491248 491247 490245
      490244 488243 487242 485242 484243 483245 484247 485248
      486249 487250 488252 489252 489255 490255 491257 493258
      495257
 1.50 477238 477237 475237 477239 477238

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 092041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 00Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016

DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON WED.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
MODELS -- WHICH OVERALL TRENDED WETTER.  WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 4-INCHES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A NARROW
STRIPE OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN AND CENTRAL IA ON
WED.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW..STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LAKES EFFECT SNOWS.  FROM LATE TUE INTO WED...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AND WESTERN LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI.  MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
PA...WESTERN NY AND THE TUG HILL REGION INTO THU.  BY THU
EVENING...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THE MEAN FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH HUDSON BAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 092041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 00Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016

DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON WED.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
MODELS -- WHICH OVERALL TRENDED WETTER.  WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 4-INCHES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A NARROW
STRIPE OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN AND CENTRAL IA ON
WED.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW..STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LAKES EFFECT SNOWS.  FROM LATE TUE INTO WED...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AND WESTERN LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI.  MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
PA...WESTERN NY AND THE TUG HILL REGION INTO THU.  BY THU
EVENING...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THE MEAN FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH HUDSON BAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 092041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 00Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016

DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON WED.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK WAVE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WED.  INCREASED COVERAGE OF
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION IN DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z
MODELS -- WHICH OVERALL TRENDED WETTER.  WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 4-INCHES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A NARROW
STRIPE OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN AND CENTRAL IA ON
WED.

DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW..STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LAKES EFFECT SNOWS.  FROM LATE TUE INTO WED...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AND WESTERN LOWER
PENINSULA OF MI.  MEANWHILE...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
PA...WESTERN NY AND THE TUG HILL REGION INTO THU.  BY THU
EVENING...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THE MEAN FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH HUDSON BAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 091919
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH RH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH ONE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST COAST AND ULTIMATELY
PASSING WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT PER THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WHILE GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS DEPICT A RATHER WEAK/STRUNG-OUT CIRCULATION
WITH THIS LOW OFF THE COAST...AS THE GFS/PARALLEL GFS/UKMET/CMC
DEPICT A SURFACE REFLECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BETWEEN 12-18Z WED WHILE THE NAM AN ECMWF ARE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WPC OPTED CLOSER TO A NON-NAM/NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH
THE QPF...WHICH LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (TO
0.25+ INCH) FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG LONG
ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND EASTERN MASS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 091858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 091858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 091858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 091349
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

...VALID 15Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 091059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
558 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...09Z UPDATE...

THE 06Z MODELS MADE SOME MODEST SHIFTS IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT THE WPC MANUAL
GRAPHICS MADE FEW CHANGES FROM THE PACKAGE ISSUED AT 06Z.

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF DAY 2 /18Z WED...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WED MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD SHIFT
AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...BRINGING SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INTO THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BENEATH THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ON WED AND THURS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURS. UPSLOPE
SNOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AN ARCTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND FAST-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC
SURFACE FRONT...WILL MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND WILL RELY LARGELY ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO TO STRONGER
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE
FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID FROM EACH
SYSTEM. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN -- BUT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC QPF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE IN
TERMS OF TIMING...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557037 555021 553017 550014 547011 542010
      532006 523002 508993 474976 465972 459969 454969 445969
      440970 436973 435978 434985 438996 434997 432001 428004
      426008 428021 433023 435023 435021 434018 435015 438014
      440016 447022 456025 460030 463034 466037 468042 470046
      475049 481055 491061 495062 498064 505070 509071 510074
      515074 519073 521071 523073 535088 541095 544095 546098
      550097 552094 554089 555081 556073 558054 563046
 0.01 509288 509282 507276 505271 504265 504259 502253 495246
      478244 472243 468244 464245 459244 450247 442249 438248
      433250 430251 426254 427257 429258 434258 439259 443258
      452257 462258 466258 472260 480265 485268 489272 495279
      502287 507289 509288
 0.01 335683 336689 332695 326703 322709 320714 314727 306746
      313775 315792 317798 322795 326795 328792 331787 334781
      338775 344765 347760 351756 359748 363749 367753 371756
      373760 372763 373772 374778 378782 383786 385790 383793
      379798 372805 369810 365813 361817 357822 350831 347837
      341838 338835 334836 332841 333848 332852 329853 329858
      330861 337867 344875 347881 351885 354888 358888 361890
      366892 369887 368879 371876 373875 379873 384868 387865
      388862 389861 391864 391867 394884 395892 398896 401899
      405901 411899 417898 420898 423896 430895 432893 436892
      440895 445894 449895 452900 456906 461910 466913 471912
      474907 476901 486879 486876 489872 492868 496863 498856
      505844 507838 510828 512822 514813 515797 517769 515746
      512726 511721 510718 508706 503689 493667 490659 486654
      480645 471635 469631 467629 466631 460644 458651 456653
      453653 448657 445662 437671 431680 428683 425688 424695
      422699 420700 420692 422685 423679 422670 418664 411666
      405668 399667 389663 383663 379659 372663 366667 360671
      345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 442689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 417710 416714 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722
      447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 467858 465858 463864
      463869 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456834 454830 450828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      431813 426814 424818 425824 429832 432837 434837 439835
      443834 449836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405742 403725 401715 397710 395705 391699
      387696 386690 387686 385682 381680 375680 367681 361684
      356687 353691 349697 347701 346708 347716 350722 356722
      360718 367709 370711 371715 373720 373729 376738 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 394775 400778 406777 408775
      407771 408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 397723 394721 388714 383713 381716 378725 378733
      380738 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745 389735
      390733 392738 397739 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537201 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510175 510178 516185 519194 522205 525210 527214 532214
      534212 536210
 0.01 520271 522258 521246 515231 510224 505216 499211 494210
      491209 489210 486213 485217 487227 485231 481231 477229
      473229 467234 463238 457243 444250 440253 434256 426258
      420263 410270 405277 403284 402291 403294 405296 407299
      412301 420303 427307 435309 441307 447305 454301 459296
      464292 467289 471290 476291 480290 493290 497290 504293
      509293 513291
 0.01 534021 534016 533013 529010 524007 520006 517002 510996
      507993 504993 500990 496988 492985 486980 481976 477972
      472969 464964 443952 436947 426940 408925 402917 396908
      390897 386890 382885 380880 376876 368871 363874 361879
      363885 367892 369896 371900 371905 375914 389936 391941
      394945 398949 402952 419971 435983 438983 440986 445990
      456997 473009 478011 482014 494021 516022 527026 530027
      532025 534021
 0.01 508794 507774 504766 503755 503750 501747 497745 492744
      485750 481753 478748 475742 474735 474725 473720 471718
      468714 468709 469707 473702 475697 477694 476689 473685
      470683 467684 460686 449697 441705 437702 437698 439697
      445688 452679 454673 456668 458662 459654 457652 454651
      447653 445655 440657 433660 431662 428663 424657 421653
      419652 417652 406658 398665 391673 387675 383674 377674
      371677 365681 360686 355692 349700 346705 345710 342721
      339726 335730 322750 314762 313770 311776 312783 313787
      314788 322788 327784 342770 348761 351756 357753 364754
      370755 382751 397738 408742 412744 415750 417765 419767
      419771 415776 403781 398786 392790 387792 383797 380800
      376803 373808 369812 366812 364814 359819 357824 356830
      354837 353840 356840 359834 362832 365832 366835 377840
      379846 383850 388849 392846 396844 399845 404848 410854
      412857 412861 414868 418873 424876 438876 444875 449873
      451874 458875 460881 461886 460888 460898 462903 465908
      470907 472905 478895 482889 483886 484881 485872 483863
      482858 480855 480849 477846 478843 481842 483839 486839
      489834 492830 500822 503811 507800 508794
 0.25 516272 518267 518261 516254 513246 510241 502228 498222
      495220 493223 493227 494235 494239 493243 488241 483244
      479249 478252 478256 481262 486269 490273 499282 506284
      510281 516272
 0.25 448276 449274 447271 446272 445272 444273 443274 441275
      441276 440278 440280 438282 438283 439285 439286 440286
      441285 443284 443283 445282 446281 446280 447278 448276
      448276
 0.25 440762 440760 440757 439755 438754 437754 435755 435756
      433757 432759 431761 431764 432766 433768 433769 434770
      435771 436770 437770 438767 439765 439763 440762
 0.25 434780 434778 432777 431778 430779 430781 429783 429786
      431787 433786 433785 434783 434781 434780
 0.25 429788 429784 427783 425782 424787 422792 420795 416799
      416804 419807 421804 423799 425794 427791 429788
 0.25 391711 391706 389704 386700 383699 382694 381686 378685
      375687 372692 366701 359711 353722 351727 350731 356733
      363733 369733 375731 383722 391713 391711
 0.50 515267 515264 515261 515259 515257 514256 514253 513253
      512251 511249 509248 508248 507250 507252 507253 508256
      508257 508259 509261 510262 510264 511265 512266 513268
      515267
 0.50 506276 504271 502267 499263 497260 495256 492253 488254
      489260 492265 494269 496273 498276 503279 506276
 0.50 378705 377700 375700 372702 370704 368706 367708 365711
      365715 366717 370718 373715 375713 376710 377707 378705

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 537207 537201 535198 534193 532189 525174 524171 520169
      514166 511164 508161 503155 497150 496148 491147 486151
      484153 483158 482171 485179 491182 497187 507198 512205
      516209 520210 523209 528206 534207 537207
 0.01 546095 544079 540071 536067 532061 529055 524052 521046
      517043 513036 509029 506021 503016 498011 495008 489005
      485000 483994 474982 467971 464966 460959 454949 447935
      443923 438909 432896 427890 422886 416884 410884 404887
      402892 399898 399907 401916 403922 410935 417945 424954
      430959 435961 443971 447977 450983 455996 458003 461008
      469020 473024 476024 478027 482030 486036 490043 493051
      505073 509078 513084 517090 522094 526100 531103 532106
      535107 539108 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 518268 520262 521253 521246 520240 519235 517230 513222
      503206 500203 496202 491200 486200 479201 472207 467212
      463215 459217 452220 448222 446226 444229 440231 432234
      426239 418241 411242 404245 400246 397250 394255 391258
      391261 396262 403260 410258 419262 424268 426271 425275
      424282 426292 427296 430300 433303 438305 448309 457313
      466315 483315 490313 497308 502302 507293 514280 518268
 0.01 474634 474626 471622 460626 453633 448638 444642 436649
      430651 427653 422656 417660 413661 408660 400657 389660
      382662 377665 369672 361679 356687 354692 353696 352709
      353716 354720 357725 359730 359737 362742 371746 380748
      383750 389749 397742 402740 406736 411730 418720 423708
      425706 427705 429707 432706 447695 452698 454701 451703
      444710 439712 435714 430716 427720 425727 423729 423732
      428736 431734 434734 436736 436740 433742 421744 418747
      417753 420761 421768 419773 410779 402785 391791 384797
      381802 379806 380810 382810 385809 387807 394802 399800
      402799 404801 408805 409811 412815 419814 425816 428820
      438824 446829 453833 455835 457830 455825 455818 456811
      457804 458797 457788 457783 455783 450782 447785 445793
      442796 441801 439806 436808 433807 427800 429795 432792
      435790 435787 437781 439775 440767 446759 451748 457738
      459734 460729 459714 460708 464706 469708 472706 474701
      473694 471691 468690 464688 460684 458675 462665 461657
      462654 464653 469646 474634
 0.01 483867 481856 480852 478849 474842 473837 473830 472824
      470823 468824 465829 464839 463842 459844 452843 447846
      445849 442851 438858 438862 440864 447866 455865 459864
      462866 463872 464879 463884 464890 465894 468896 472895
      474892 478885 480877 483867
 0.01 428862 428860 427859 426857 424857 422855 420855 418855
      417855 415856 415858 415861 415863 417865 419865 421865
      422865 424865 426863 428862 428862
 0.25 517265 518258 517249 512238 507227 502217 498212 493209
      488208 483208 479212 480217 481220 482222 481226 475226
      471227 466231 458237 455240 454245 454249 456250 456259
      449270 447276 447280 448283 450286 453287 460288 469288
      474286 479285 490288 495288 500287 504285 508281 517265
 0.25 469856 468853 467853 466853 466856 467858 469858 469856
 0.25 433766 433764 432763 432761 430760 429761 429762 428764
      429767 431768 433766 433766
 0.25 393711 391707 388703 385701 380701 376703 374706 371711
      369714 369721 373723 378722 383721 387719 391716 393713
      393711
 0.50 514266 515259 515253 514248 512242 504225 499216 496214
      491212 486211 483215 483219 486224 488228 488233 486235
      482236 479233 475230 471233 469236 468240 470251 466259
      461268 463272 468274 484273 488275 491278 498281 503281
      506279 510269 514266
 1.00 502272 501261 497250 497244 500245 504247 504244 501235
      500229 497226 495228 495233 494239 490241 487241 484245
      483253 483258 488265 496272 502272
 1.00 477240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 477240
 1.50 493259 493256 493255 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 488247 488249 489251 489252 490255 491257 492258
      493259 493259

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 091059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
558 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...09Z UPDATE...

THE 06Z MODELS MADE SOME MODEST SHIFTS IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT THE WPC MANUAL
GRAPHICS MADE FEW CHANGES FROM THE PACKAGE ISSUED AT 06Z.

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF DAY 2 /18Z WED...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WED MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD SHIFT
AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...BRINGING SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INTO THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BENEATH THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ON WED AND THURS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURS. UPSLOPE
SNOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AN ARCTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND FAST-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC
SURFACE FRONT...WILL MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND WILL RELY LARGELY ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO TO STRONGER
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE
FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID FROM EACH
SYSTEM. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN -- BUT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC QPF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE IN
TERMS OF TIMING...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557037 555021 553017 550014 547011 542010
      532006 523002 508993 474976 465972 459969 454969 445969
      440970 436973 435978 434985 438996 434997 432001 428004
      426008 428021 433023 435023 435021 434018 435015 438014
      440016 447022 456025 460030 463034 466037 468042 470046
      475049 481055 491061 495062 498064 505070 509071 510074
      515074 519073 521071 523073 535088 541095 544095 546098
      550097 552094 554089 555081 556073 558054 563046
 0.01 509288 509282 507276 505271 504265 504259 502253 495246
      478244 472243 468244 464245 459244 450247 442249 438248
      433250 430251 426254 427257 429258 434258 439259 443258
      452257 462258 466258 472260 480265 485268 489272 495279
      502287 507289 509288
 0.01 335683 336689 332695 326703 322709 320714 314727 306746
      313775 315792 317798 322795 326795 328792 331787 334781
      338775 344765 347760 351756 359748 363749 367753 371756
      373760 372763 373772 374778 378782 383786 385790 383793
      379798 372805 369810 365813 361817 357822 350831 347837
      341838 338835 334836 332841 333848 332852 329853 329858
      330861 337867 344875 347881 351885 354888 358888 361890
      366892 369887 368879 371876 373875 379873 384868 387865
      388862 389861 391864 391867 394884 395892 398896 401899
      405901 411899 417898 420898 423896 430895 432893 436892
      440895 445894 449895 452900 456906 461910 466913 471912
      474907 476901 486879 486876 489872 492868 496863 498856
      505844 507838 510828 512822 514813 515797 517769 515746
      512726 511721 510718 508706 503689 493667 490659 486654
      480645 471635 469631 467629 466631 460644 458651 456653
      453653 448657 445662 437671 431680 428683 425688 424695
      422699 420700 420692 422685 423679 422670 418664 411666
      405668 399667 389663 383663 379659 372663 366667 360671
      345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 442689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 417710 416714 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722
      447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 467858 465858 463864
      463869 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456834 454830 450828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      431813 426814 424818 425824 429832 432837 434837 439835
      443834 449836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405742 403725 401715 397710 395705 391699
      387696 386690 387686 385682 381680 375680 367681 361684
      356687 353691 349697 347701 346708 347716 350722 356722
      360718 367709 370711 371715 373720 373729 376738 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 394775 400778 406777 408775
      407771 408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 397723 394721 388714 383713 381716 378725 378733
      380738 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745 389735
      390733 392738 397739 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537201 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510175 510178 516185 519194 522205 525210 527214 532214
      534212 536210
 0.01 520271 522258 521246 515231 510224 505216 499211 494210
      491209 489210 486213 485217 487227 485231 481231 477229
      473229 467234 463238 457243 444250 440253 434256 426258
      420263 410270 405277 403284 402291 403294 405296 407299
      412301 420303 427307 435309 441307 447305 454301 459296
      464292 467289 471290 476291 480290 493290 497290 504293
      509293 513291
 0.01 534021 534016 533013 529010 524007 520006 517002 510996
      507993 504993 500990 496988 492985 486980 481976 477972
      472969 464964 443952 436947 426940 408925 402917 396908
      390897 386890 382885 380880 376876 368871 363874 361879
      363885 367892 369896 371900 371905 375914 389936 391941
      394945 398949 402952 419971 435983 438983 440986 445990
      456997 473009 478011 482014 494021 516022 527026 530027
      532025 534021
 0.01 508794 507774 504766 503755 503750 501747 497745 492744
      485750 481753 478748 475742 474735 474725 473720 471718
      468714 468709 469707 473702 475697 477694 476689 473685
      470683 467684 460686 449697 441705 437702 437698 439697
      445688 452679 454673 456668 458662 459654 457652 454651
      447653 445655 440657 433660 431662 428663 424657 421653
      419652 417652 406658 398665 391673 387675 383674 377674
      371677 365681 360686 355692 349700 346705 345710 342721
      339726 335730 322750 314762 313770 311776 312783 313787
      314788 322788 327784 342770 348761 351756 357753 364754
      370755 382751 397738 408742 412744 415750 417765 419767
      419771 415776 403781 398786 392790 387792 383797 380800
      376803 373808 369812 366812 364814 359819 357824 356830
      354837 353840 356840 359834 362832 365832 366835 377840
      379846 383850 388849 392846 396844 399845 404848 410854
      412857 412861 414868 418873 424876 438876 444875 449873
      451874 458875 460881 461886 460888 460898 462903 465908
      470907 472905 478895 482889 483886 484881 485872 483863
      482858 480855 480849 477846 478843 481842 483839 486839
      489834 492830 500822 503811 507800 508794
 0.25 516272 518267 518261 516254 513246 510241 502228 498222
      495220 493223 493227 494235 494239 493243 488241 483244
      479249 478252 478256 481262 486269 490273 499282 506284
      510281 516272
 0.25 448276 449274 447271 446272 445272 444273 443274 441275
      441276 440278 440280 438282 438283 439285 439286 440286
      441285 443284 443283 445282 446281 446280 447278 448276
      448276
 0.25 440762 440760 440757 439755 438754 437754 435755 435756
      433757 432759 431761 431764 432766 433768 433769 434770
      435771 436770 437770 438767 439765 439763 440762
 0.25 434780 434778 432777 431778 430779 430781 429783 429786
      431787 433786 433785 434783 434781 434780
 0.25 429788 429784 427783 425782 424787 422792 420795 416799
      416804 419807 421804 423799 425794 427791 429788
 0.25 391711 391706 389704 386700 383699 382694 381686 378685
      375687 372692 366701 359711 353722 351727 350731 356733
      363733 369733 375731 383722 391713 391711
 0.50 515267 515264 515261 515259 515257 514256 514253 513253
      512251 511249 509248 508248 507250 507252 507253 508256
      508257 508259 509261 510262 510264 511265 512266 513268
      515267
 0.50 506276 504271 502267 499263 497260 495256 492253 488254
      489260 492265 494269 496273 498276 503279 506276
 0.50 378705 377700 375700 372702 370704 368706 367708 365711
      365715 366717 370718 373715 375713 376710 377707 378705

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 537207 537201 535198 534193 532189 525174 524171 520169
      514166 511164 508161 503155 497150 496148 491147 486151
      484153 483158 482171 485179 491182 497187 507198 512205
      516209 520210 523209 528206 534207 537207
 0.01 546095 544079 540071 536067 532061 529055 524052 521046
      517043 513036 509029 506021 503016 498011 495008 489005
      485000 483994 474982 467971 464966 460959 454949 447935
      443923 438909 432896 427890 422886 416884 410884 404887
      402892 399898 399907 401916 403922 410935 417945 424954
      430959 435961 443971 447977 450983 455996 458003 461008
      469020 473024 476024 478027 482030 486036 490043 493051
      505073 509078 513084 517090 522094 526100 531103 532106
      535107 539108 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 518268 520262 521253 521246 520240 519235 517230 513222
      503206 500203 496202 491200 486200 479201 472207 467212
      463215 459217 452220 448222 446226 444229 440231 432234
      426239 418241 411242 404245 400246 397250 394255 391258
      391261 396262 403260 410258 419262 424268 426271 425275
      424282 426292 427296 430300 433303 438305 448309 457313
      466315 483315 490313 497308 502302 507293 514280 518268
 0.01 474634 474626 471622 460626 453633 448638 444642 436649
      430651 427653 422656 417660 413661 408660 400657 389660
      382662 377665 369672 361679 356687 354692 353696 352709
      353716 354720 357725 359730 359737 362742 371746 380748
      383750 389749 397742 402740 406736 411730 418720 423708
      425706 427705 429707 432706 447695 452698 454701 451703
      444710 439712 435714 430716 427720 425727 423729 423732
      428736 431734 434734 436736 436740 433742 421744 418747
      417753 420761 421768 419773 410779 402785 391791 384797
      381802 379806 380810 382810 385809 387807 394802 399800
      402799 404801 408805 409811 412815 419814 425816 428820
      438824 446829 453833 455835 457830 455825 455818 456811
      457804 458797 457788 457783 455783 450782 447785 445793
      442796 441801 439806 436808 433807 427800 429795 432792
      435790 435787 437781 439775 440767 446759 451748 457738
      459734 460729 459714 460708 464706 469708 472706 474701
      473694 471691 468690 464688 460684 458675 462665 461657
      462654 464653 469646 474634
 0.01 483867 481856 480852 478849 474842 473837 473830 472824
      470823 468824 465829 464839 463842 459844 452843 447846
      445849 442851 438858 438862 440864 447866 455865 459864
      462866 463872 464879 463884 464890 465894 468896 472895
      474892 478885 480877 483867
 0.01 428862 428860 427859 426857 424857 422855 420855 418855
      417855 415856 415858 415861 415863 417865 419865 421865
      422865 424865 426863 428862 428862
 0.25 517265 518258 517249 512238 507227 502217 498212 493209
      488208 483208 479212 480217 481220 482222 481226 475226
      471227 466231 458237 455240 454245 454249 456250 456259
      449270 447276 447280 448283 450286 453287 460288 469288
      474286 479285 490288 495288 500287 504285 508281 517265
 0.25 469856 468853 467853 466853 466856 467858 469858 469856
 0.25 433766 433764 432763 432761 430760 429761 429762 428764
      429767 431768 433766 433766
 0.25 393711 391707 388703 385701 380701 376703 374706 371711
      369714 369721 373723 378722 383721 387719 391716 393713
      393711
 0.50 514266 515259 515253 514248 512242 504225 499216 496214
      491212 486211 483215 483219 486224 488228 488233 486235
      482236 479233 475230 471233 469236 468240 470251 466259
      461268 463272 468274 484273 488275 491278 498281 503281
      506279 510269 514266
 1.00 502272 501261 497250 497244 500245 504247 504244 501235
      500229 497226 495228 495233 494239 490241 487241 484245
      483253 483258 488265 496272 502272
 1.00 477240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 477240
 1.50 493259 493256 493255 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 488247 488249 489251 489252 490255 491257 492258
      493259 493259

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 091059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
558 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...09Z UPDATE...

THE 06Z MODELS MADE SOME MODEST SHIFTS IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT THE WPC MANUAL
GRAPHICS MADE FEW CHANGES FROM THE PACKAGE ISSUED AT 06Z.

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF DAY 2 /18Z WED...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WED MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD SHIFT
AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...BRINGING SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INTO THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BENEATH THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ON WED AND THURS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURS. UPSLOPE
SNOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AN ARCTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND FAST-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC
SURFACE FRONT...WILL MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND WILL RELY LARGELY ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO TO STRONGER
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE
FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID FROM EACH
SYSTEM. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN -- BUT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC QPF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE IN
TERMS OF TIMING...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557037 555021 553017 550014 547011 542010
      532006 523002 508993 474976 465972 459969 454969 445969
      440970 436973 435978 434985 438996 434997 432001 428004
      426008 428021 433023 435023 435021 434018 435015 438014
      440016 447022 456025 460030 463034 466037 468042 470046
      475049 481055 491061 495062 498064 505070 509071 510074
      515074 519073 521071 523073 535088 541095 544095 546098
      550097 552094 554089 555081 556073 558054 563046
 0.01 509288 509282 507276 505271 504265 504259 502253 495246
      478244 472243 468244 464245 459244 450247 442249 438248
      433250 430251 426254 427257 429258 434258 439259 443258
      452257 462258 466258 472260 480265 485268 489272 495279
      502287 507289 509288
 0.01 335683 336689 332695 326703 322709 320714 314727 306746
      313775 315792 317798 322795 326795 328792 331787 334781
      338775 344765 347760 351756 359748 363749 367753 371756
      373760 372763 373772 374778 378782 383786 385790 383793
      379798 372805 369810 365813 361817 357822 350831 347837
      341838 338835 334836 332841 333848 332852 329853 329858
      330861 337867 344875 347881 351885 354888 358888 361890
      366892 369887 368879 371876 373875 379873 384868 387865
      388862 389861 391864 391867 394884 395892 398896 401899
      405901 411899 417898 420898 423896 430895 432893 436892
      440895 445894 449895 452900 456906 461910 466913 471912
      474907 476901 486879 486876 489872 492868 496863 498856
      505844 507838 510828 512822 514813 515797 517769 515746
      512726 511721 510718 508706 503689 493667 490659 486654
      480645 471635 469631 467629 466631 460644 458651 456653
      453653 448657 445662 437671 431680 428683 425688 424695
      422699 420700 420692 422685 423679 422670 418664 411666
      405668 399667 389663 383663 379659 372663 366667 360671
      345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 442689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 417710 416714 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722
      447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 467858 465858 463864
      463869 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456834 454830 450828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      431813 426814 424818 425824 429832 432837 434837 439835
      443834 449836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405742 403725 401715 397710 395705 391699
      387696 386690 387686 385682 381680 375680 367681 361684
      356687 353691 349697 347701 346708 347716 350722 356722
      360718 367709 370711 371715 373720 373729 376738 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 394775 400778 406777 408775
      407771 408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 397723 394721 388714 383713 381716 378725 378733
      380738 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745 389735
      390733 392738 397739 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537201 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510175 510178 516185 519194 522205 525210 527214 532214
      534212 536210
 0.01 520271 522258 521246 515231 510224 505216 499211 494210
      491209 489210 486213 485217 487227 485231 481231 477229
      473229 467234 463238 457243 444250 440253 434256 426258
      420263 410270 405277 403284 402291 403294 405296 407299
      412301 420303 427307 435309 441307 447305 454301 459296
      464292 467289 471290 476291 480290 493290 497290 504293
      509293 513291
 0.01 534021 534016 533013 529010 524007 520006 517002 510996
      507993 504993 500990 496988 492985 486980 481976 477972
      472969 464964 443952 436947 426940 408925 402917 396908
      390897 386890 382885 380880 376876 368871 363874 361879
      363885 367892 369896 371900 371905 375914 389936 391941
      394945 398949 402952 419971 435983 438983 440986 445990
      456997 473009 478011 482014 494021 516022 527026 530027
      532025 534021
 0.01 508794 507774 504766 503755 503750 501747 497745 492744
      485750 481753 478748 475742 474735 474725 473720 471718
      468714 468709 469707 473702 475697 477694 476689 473685
      470683 467684 460686 449697 441705 437702 437698 439697
      445688 452679 454673 456668 458662 459654 457652 454651
      447653 445655 440657 433660 431662 428663 424657 421653
      419652 417652 406658 398665 391673 387675 383674 377674
      371677 365681 360686 355692 349700 346705 345710 342721
      339726 335730 322750 314762 313770 311776 312783 313787
      314788 322788 327784 342770 348761 351756 357753 364754
      370755 382751 397738 408742 412744 415750 417765 419767
      419771 415776 403781 398786 392790 387792 383797 380800
      376803 373808 369812 366812 364814 359819 357824 356830
      354837 353840 356840 359834 362832 365832 366835 377840
      379846 383850 388849 392846 396844 399845 404848 410854
      412857 412861 414868 418873 424876 438876 444875 449873
      451874 458875 460881 461886 460888 460898 462903 465908
      470907 472905 478895 482889 483886 484881 485872 483863
      482858 480855 480849 477846 478843 481842 483839 486839
      489834 492830 500822 503811 507800 508794
 0.25 516272 518267 518261 516254 513246 510241 502228 498222
      495220 493223 493227 494235 494239 493243 488241 483244
      479249 478252 478256 481262 486269 490273 499282 506284
      510281 516272
 0.25 448276 449274 447271 446272 445272 444273 443274 441275
      441276 440278 440280 438282 438283 439285 439286 440286
      441285 443284 443283 445282 446281 446280 447278 448276
      448276
 0.25 440762 440760 440757 439755 438754 437754 435755 435756
      433757 432759 431761 431764 432766 433768 433769 434770
      435771 436770 437770 438767 439765 439763 440762
 0.25 434780 434778 432777 431778 430779 430781 429783 429786
      431787 433786 433785 434783 434781 434780
 0.25 429788 429784 427783 425782 424787 422792 420795 416799
      416804 419807 421804 423799 425794 427791 429788
 0.25 391711 391706 389704 386700 383699 382694 381686 378685
      375687 372692 366701 359711 353722 351727 350731 356733
      363733 369733 375731 383722 391713 391711
 0.50 515267 515264 515261 515259 515257 514256 514253 513253
      512251 511249 509248 508248 507250 507252 507253 508256
      508257 508259 509261 510262 510264 511265 512266 513268
      515267
 0.50 506276 504271 502267 499263 497260 495256 492253 488254
      489260 492265 494269 496273 498276 503279 506276
 0.50 378705 377700 375700 372702 370704 368706 367708 365711
      365715 366717 370718 373715 375713 376710 377707 378705

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 537207 537201 535198 534193 532189 525174 524171 520169
      514166 511164 508161 503155 497150 496148 491147 486151
      484153 483158 482171 485179 491182 497187 507198 512205
      516209 520210 523209 528206 534207 537207
 0.01 546095 544079 540071 536067 532061 529055 524052 521046
      517043 513036 509029 506021 503016 498011 495008 489005
      485000 483994 474982 467971 464966 460959 454949 447935
      443923 438909 432896 427890 422886 416884 410884 404887
      402892 399898 399907 401916 403922 410935 417945 424954
      430959 435961 443971 447977 450983 455996 458003 461008
      469020 473024 476024 478027 482030 486036 490043 493051
      505073 509078 513084 517090 522094 526100 531103 532106
      535107 539108 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 518268 520262 521253 521246 520240 519235 517230 513222
      503206 500203 496202 491200 486200 479201 472207 467212
      463215 459217 452220 448222 446226 444229 440231 432234
      426239 418241 411242 404245 400246 397250 394255 391258
      391261 396262 403260 410258 419262 424268 426271 425275
      424282 426292 427296 430300 433303 438305 448309 457313
      466315 483315 490313 497308 502302 507293 514280 518268
 0.01 474634 474626 471622 460626 453633 448638 444642 436649
      430651 427653 422656 417660 413661 408660 400657 389660
      382662 377665 369672 361679 356687 354692 353696 352709
      353716 354720 357725 359730 359737 362742 371746 380748
      383750 389749 397742 402740 406736 411730 418720 423708
      425706 427705 429707 432706 447695 452698 454701 451703
      444710 439712 435714 430716 427720 425727 423729 423732
      428736 431734 434734 436736 436740 433742 421744 418747
      417753 420761 421768 419773 410779 402785 391791 384797
      381802 379806 380810 382810 385809 387807 394802 399800
      402799 404801 408805 409811 412815 419814 425816 428820
      438824 446829 453833 455835 457830 455825 455818 456811
      457804 458797 457788 457783 455783 450782 447785 445793
      442796 441801 439806 436808 433807 427800 429795 432792
      435790 435787 437781 439775 440767 446759 451748 457738
      459734 460729 459714 460708 464706 469708 472706 474701
      473694 471691 468690 464688 460684 458675 462665 461657
      462654 464653 469646 474634
 0.01 483867 481856 480852 478849 474842 473837 473830 472824
      470823 468824 465829 464839 463842 459844 452843 447846
      445849 442851 438858 438862 440864 447866 455865 459864
      462866 463872 464879 463884 464890 465894 468896 472895
      474892 478885 480877 483867
 0.01 428862 428860 427859 426857 424857 422855 420855 418855
      417855 415856 415858 415861 415863 417865 419865 421865
      422865 424865 426863 428862 428862
 0.25 517265 518258 517249 512238 507227 502217 498212 493209
      488208 483208 479212 480217 481220 482222 481226 475226
      471227 466231 458237 455240 454245 454249 456250 456259
      449270 447276 447280 448283 450286 453287 460288 469288
      474286 479285 490288 495288 500287 504285 508281 517265
 0.25 469856 468853 467853 466853 466856 467858 469858 469856
 0.25 433766 433764 432763 432761 430760 429761 429762 428764
      429767 431768 433766 433766
 0.25 393711 391707 388703 385701 380701 376703 374706 371711
      369714 369721 373723 378722 383721 387719 391716 393713
      393711
 0.50 514266 515259 515253 514248 512242 504225 499216 496214
      491212 486211 483215 483219 486224 488228 488233 486235
      482236 479233 475230 471233 469236 468240 470251 466259
      461268 463272 468274 484273 488275 491278 498281 503281
      506279 510269 514266
 1.00 502272 501261 497250 497244 500245 504247 504244 501235
      500229 497226 495228 495233 494239 490241 487241 484245
      483253 483258 488265 496272 502272
 1.00 477240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 477240
 1.50 493259 493256 493255 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 488247 488249 489251 489252 490255 491257 492258
      493259 493259

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090828
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF DAY 2 /18Z WED...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WED MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD SHIFT
AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...BRINGING SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INTO THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BENEATH THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ON WED AND THURS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURS. UPSLOPE
SNOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AN ARCTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND FAST-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC
SURFACE FRONT...WILL MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND WILL RELY LARGELY ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO TO STRONGER
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE
FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID FROM EACH
SYSTEM. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN -- BUT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC QPF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE IN
TERMS OF TIMING...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537202 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510174 510178 516185 519194 522205 524210 527214 532214
      534212 536210
 0.01 520271 522258 522253 521247 515231 510224 505218 500212
      494210 491209 489210 486213 485217 487226 485231 481231
      477229 473229 467233 463238 457243 444249 439254 434256
      426258 421263 415266 410270 405277 402289 403293 405296
      407299 412301 420303 426306 435309 441307 447305 454301
      459296 464292 467289 471290 476291 479290 493290 497290
      504293 508293 513291
 0.01 534021 534016 532013 529010 518004 510996 500990 492985
      487982 482977 464964 444953 426940 409926 405922 401916
      396908 390897 387890 383886 380880 377877 372873 368871
      363874 361879 363885 366890 375914 389935 391940 395945
      402952 418970 428978 435983 438983 440986 445990 454996
      464002 468006 473009 482014 492021 516022 527026 530027
      532025 534021
 0.01 508794 506772 504765 503755 503749 501747 496745 492744
      487747 486750 483751 481753 479749 477744 475736 474726
      473721 471719 468714 468710 469707 473702 476695 476689
      473685 470683 467684 460686 455690 451694 444703 443704
      440704 436700 444688 452679 457666 459654 456651 453651
      447653 442656 435659 431662 427662 426659 421653 419652
      416652 406658 398665 389674 377674 371677 365681 357689
      349699 347704 345710 341721 339726 335730 322750 315759
      314762 313767 312774 311777 312781 313788 320788 325786
      342770 348760 352756 357753 364754 370756 381752 385749
      390744 394740 397738 401738 409742 413745 415750 416758
      416764 418766 419771 415776 411777 409779 404781 399785
      393789 388791 384795 380800 376803 373809 369812 364814
      359819 357824 357829 356832 354838 353840 356840 359834
      362832 366834 368838 376838 381848 383850 386850 391847
      396844 401846 410854 412856 412861 415870 419874 424876
      437876 450874 455874 458875 460878 460897 461903 464907
      470907 472905 480892 482888 484881 485877 484871 483863
      479848 477846 479842 484839 492830 499822 503811 506801
      508794
 0.25 516272 518267 518261 516254 513247 510241 502228 498223
      495220 493223 492227 494235 494239 493243 488241 484244
      479249 478255 481262 485268 490273 499282 505284 510281
      516272
 0.25 448276 449274 447271 446272 445272 444273 443274 441275
      441276 440278 440280 438282 438283 439285 439286 440286
      441285 443284 443283 445282 446281 446280 447278 448276
      448276
 0.25 440762 440760 440757 439755 438754 437754 435755 435756
      433757 432759 431761 431764 432766 433768 433769 434770
      435771 436770 437770 438767 439765 439763 440762
 0.25 434780 434778 432777 431778 430779 430781 429783 429786
      431787 433786 433785 434783 434781 434780
 0.25 429788 429784 427783 425782 424787 422792 420795 416799
      416804 419807 421804 423799 425794 427791 429788
 0.25 391711 390704 386700 383699 382694 381686 378685 375687
      372692 366701 359711 353722 351727 350731 356733 363733
      369733 375731 383722 391713 391711
 0.50 515267 515264 515261 515259 515257 514256 514253 513253
      512251 511249 509248 508248 507250 507252 507253 508256
      508257 508259 509261 510262 510264 511265 512266 513268
      515267
 0.50 506276 504271 502267 499263 497260 495256 492253 488254
      489260 492265 494269 496273 498276 503279 506276
 0.50 378705 377700 375700 372702 370704 368706 367708 365711
      365715 366717 370718 373715 375713 376710 377707 378705

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 537207 537201 535198 534193 532189 525174 524171 520169
      514166 511164 508161 503155 497150 496148 491147 486151
      484153 483158 482171 485179 491182 497187 507198 512205
      516209 520210 523209 528206 534207 537207
 0.01 546095 544079 540071 536067 532061 529055 524052 521046
      517043 513036 509029 506021 503016 498011 495008 489005
      485000 483994 474982 467971 464966 460959 454949 447935
      443923 438909 432896 427890 422886 416884 410884 404887
      402892 399898 399907 401916 403922 410935 417945 424954
      430959 435961 443971 447977 450983 455996 458003 461008
      469020 473024 476024 478027 482030 486036 490043 493051
      505073 509078 513084 517090 522094 526100 531103 532106
      535107 539108 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 518268 520262 521253 521246 520240 519235 517230 513222
      503206 500203 496202 491200 486200 479201 472207 467212
      463215 459217 452220 448222 446226 444229 440231 432234
      426239 418241 411242 404245 400246 397250 394255 391258
      391261 396262 403260 410258 419262 424268 426271 425275
      424282 426292 427296 430300 433303 438305 448309 457313
      466315 483315 490313 497308 502302 507293 514280 518268
 0.01 474634 474626 471622 460626 453633 448638 444642 436649
      430651 427653 422656 417660 413661 408660 400657 389660
      382662 377665 369672 361679 356687 354692 353696 352709
      353716 354720 357725 359730 359737 362742 371746 380748
      383750 389749 397742 402740 406736 411730 418720 423708
      425706 427705 429707 432706 447695 452698 454701 451703
      444710 439712 435714 430716 427720 425727 423729 423732
      428736 431734 434734 436736 436740 433742 421744 418747
      417753 420761 421768 419773 410779 402785 391791 384797
      381802 379806 380810 382810 385809 387807 394802 399800
      402799 404801 408805 409811 412815 419814 425816 428820
      438824 446829 453833 455835 457830 455825 455818 456811
      457804 458797 457788 457783 455783 450782 447785 445793
      442796 441801 439806 436808 433807 427800 429795 432792
      435790 435787 437781 439775 440767 446759 451748 457738
      459734 460729 459714 460708 464706 469708 472706 474701
      473694 471691 468690 464688 460684 458675 462665 461657
      462654 464653 469646 474634
 0.01 483867 481856 480852 478849 474842 473837 473830 472824
      470823 468824 465829 464839 463842 459844 452843 447846
      445849 442851 438858 438862 440864 447866 455865 459864
      462866 463872 464879 463884 464890 465894 468896 472895
      474892 478885 480877 483867
 0.01 428862 428860 427859 426857 424857 422855 420855 418855
      417855 415856 415858 415861 415863 417865 419865 421865
      422865 424865 426863 428862 428862
 0.25 517265 518258 517249 512238 507227 502217 498212 493209
      488208 483208 479212 480217 481220 482222 481226 475226
      471227 466231 458237 455240 454245 454249 456250 456259
      449270 447276 447280 448283 450286 453287 460288 469288
      474286 479285 490288 495288 500287 504285 508281 517265
 0.25 469856 468853 467853 466853 466856 467858 469858 469856
 0.25 433766 433764 432763 432761 430760 429761 429762 428764
      429767 431768 433766 433766
 0.25 393711 391707 388703 385701 380701 376703 374706 371711
      369714 369721 373723 378722 383721 387719 391716 393713
      393711
 0.50 514266 515259 515253 514248 512242 504225 499216 496214
      491212 486211 483215 483219 486224 488228 488233 486235
      482236 479233 475230 471233 469236 468240 470251 466259
      461268 463272 468274 484273 488275 491278 498281 503281
      506279 510269 514266
 1.00 502272 501261 497250 497244 500245 504247 504244 501235
      500229 497226 495228 495233 494239 490241 487241 484245
      483253 483258 488265 496272 502272
 1.00 477240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 477240
 1.50 493259 493256 493255 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 488247 488249 489251 489252 490255 491257 492258
      493259 493259

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 090758
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z FRI FEB 12 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...GREAT LAKES...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR AND RELATIVELY ICE FREE WATER
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW QUITE ALIVE ON ALL 3
DAYS.  A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ON DAY 1/TUESDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
REINFORCE THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 2.  THIS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY/DAY 3
AS A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC/POLAR AIR BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON DAYS 1/2 AND 3 WITH SOME MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN
AND HURON ON DAY 1...EXPANDING TO INCLUDE THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON DAY 2 AND ONLY MORE LOCALIZED THREATS ON
DAY 3/THURSDAY...MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NEW
YORK.

DAYS 1 TO 2...

...EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...

SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE ON DAY 1/TUESDAY.  A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL BRING
SOME SCATTERED SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND POSSIBLY BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE STILL REMAIN QUITE A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THERE HAS CERTAINLY BEEN MORE CLUSTERING WITH
WHERE SOME OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A MODEST CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...A SECOND IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS SERIES OF FORECASTS THAT MAY BE
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHILE DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF SNOW FARTHER SOUTH.  FOR
EXAMPLE MOST OF VIRGINIA WILL ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS MILD
TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY COOL ON TUESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW MODELS
STILL PUT QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .25 INCHES OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA.


THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE EDGED
NORTHWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MARYLAND AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY...WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY RIPE FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  SOME FORECASTS EVEN
EXTEND THE SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK CITY/ISLAND AND POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS, INCLUDING THE 00Z HI RES
GFS/00Z NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET/NAMCONEST/ARW AND NMM ALL SEEM TO POINT
THIS WAY.  ITS ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT BUT POSSIBLY REDUCES THREAT IN
AND AROUND DC AND INCREASES IT IN NYC.  THERE IS ONLY A LOW TO
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FARTHER
WEST...THERE ARE STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA/WESTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE
TWO DAY TOTALS SHOULD APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
PREDICTABILITY.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 090728
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BANN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 090728
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BANN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 090057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

SULLIVAN
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 090057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

SULLIVAN
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 090057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

SULLIVAN
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 082158
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
A SLIGHT SWD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE ACRS THE MID ATLC IN VCNTY OF
DVLPG BACK BENT SFC TROF LATE TONIGHT/TUES TO THE WEST OF DVLPG
COASTAL LOW WHERE FOCUS FOR PSBL MESOSCALE BANDING COULD OCCUR AS
UPR VORT MAX PIVOTS ACRS THE REGION DURING THE MRNG/EARLY AFTN.
WHILE TREND OF 18Z GFS/NAM WERE HEAVIER HERE...STILL PLENTY OF
SPREAD IN MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS TO SUGGEST MAKING
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AMOUNTS ACRS PARTS OF NRN VA/CNTL AND
SRN MD.

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY. ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH HAVE AN IMPACT ON QPF TOTALS. A PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MD...DE...SOUTHEAST PA
AND PORTIONS OF NJ. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE HIGHER TOTALS
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/UKMET HAVE AN AXIS OF OF HIGHER
TOTALS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB AND
GEM REGIONAL ARE ALSO HIGHER WITH AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE NAM IS LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH...WITH THE AXIS SHOWN BY
THE GEM/UKMET AND HIGH RES MODELS MORE LIKELY IF HIGHER TOTALS ARE
TO OCCUR. FOR NOW PLAYED A MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH PAINTS BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.25" OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AS THE POTENTIAL IS
CERTAINLY THERE FOR A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 0.5" SOMEWHERE FROM
FAR NORTHEAST MD INTO NORTHERN DE...FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN
NJ. DID DECREASE QPF SOME IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2 FROM
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW AND TROUGH GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW...BOTH
WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR QPF.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

WEAK WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THREATS TO THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG AREA OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS ACCOMPANYING THESE WEAK SYSTEMS. THUS SHOULD BE A
GOOD SETUP FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE QUICK FLOW AND SUBTLE NATURE OF THE WAVES
NOT A SURPRISE THAT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IS LOW. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION..CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS. THE 12Z GEM AND
NAM ARE ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET FURTHER SOUTHWEST. FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO
THESE SOUTHWEST SOLUTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN A SLIGHT TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION...AND THE 12Z PARALLEL GFS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF EVEN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 0Z ECMWF SEEMED A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET A BIT QUICK. SO THE WPC QPF STAYED
CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMED TO MATCH BEST WITH
OUR MOST PROBABLE TIMING AND AXIS PREFERENCE. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME
IN STRONGER...BUT QUICKER LIKE THE UKMET SOLUTION. MADE A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THIS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO HAVE MORE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE FOR USE. SEEMS LIKE THE TYPE OF SYSTEM IN WHICH THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE WILL BE MOST USEFUL...WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.


...NORTHWEST...

AS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST
COAST...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE. OVERALL THERE
WAS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AMONG THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE SUITED...WITH THE 0Z GEM/UKMET QUICKER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY CONSISTENT TRENDS...WITH THE LATEST
UKMET TRENDING SLOWER...BUT THE GEM AND GFS A BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AS
THAT SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION IN THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE PERIOD. THIS BRINGS SOME 0.25"-0.5" AMOUNTS INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WA...BUT KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF NORTH INTO CANADA THROUGH
0Z FRIDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

OTTO/SULLIVAN/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 456629 464626 468623 474621 479630 483636 483641
      484649 483655 484663 488667 489675 489682 489690 487696
      480724 478737 478752 477783 480819 481841 482850 484859
      485866 483872 481887 478900 475907 472912 468920 464923
      462920 457916 450918 445921 439921 427921 422921 419919
      416919 407915 403911 403908 394904 389902 387899 383893
      379893 376891 371889 365889 359888 354888 347880 335865
      329858 333848 332841 335835 338835 341839 345838 349833
      354822 359814 365808 369803 370798 368793 366791 362789
      360787 356787 350789 343791 339794 331801 324808 318815
      312822 305829 300832 297832 295830 292826 293818 293805
      297794 298788 297780 296773 296769 297767 303757 305752
      308748 313740 324721 329713 337704 342697 349689 355681
      363672 372664 377661 382661 388660 391664 394669 395672
      399672 403668 410666 415663 417659 419654 423650 428639
      433635 437633 440630
 0.01 520070 519064 516064 515059 516055 515052 513049 507045
      502039 500036 499034 501033 507037 513038 517037 519034
      519030 516027 514025 510024 504019 497018 490019 483019
      480017 476016 463008 457004 450004 444005 440004 432003
      429004 427006 427012 428016 428021 432023 435024 435021
      434017 435014 438014 444019 450024 455028 459033 461035
      465037 469045 475049 480054 485058 498064 510074 513074
      516073 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 414713 412711 411713 410716 410721
      409728 409735 410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 419742
      419738 420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341773
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253812 251808 252806
      254803 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273068 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469638 466637 463638 460640 455642 451642 445644
      439652 437660 436670 432677 429682 427685 425689 425693
      427700 429703 431704 434702 437693 436690 438688 442687
      447688 449691 451695 454698 458698 461695 464688 469680
      468671 467666 468660 469651 470646
 0.25 475882 474878 472878 469872 469863 467859 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468888 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461817 460815 457810 452807 448807 446810 443815
      438815 433812 428811 424815 422818 423822 426827 428833
      432838 438837 444835 449836 451839 451842 448848 450851
      452850 456846 460845 461843 462839 461834 460825 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 392739 391734 392730 392722 390714 389711 386710
      383708 382700 384688 382682 378678 372681 368684 355700
      346709 340717 335726 329735 326740 324745 321758 320763
      320768 321770 324770 329767 334763 338760 345752 351744
      357734 362723 364718 367717 371717 375717 375724 374730
      376737 375740 375745 378751 383760 384768 385776 386780
      388783 392785 394786 395789 391794 384801 381805 380811
      383822 386829 391831 396822 401820 401812 402806 404799
      406794 408789 413781
 0.25 357834 358832 357830 356832 356835 357836 357834
 0.25 356839 356837 355836 355837 354839 355840 356839
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 402776 400769 400764 399760 396756 393750 389737 387728
      389722 387717 383715 383720 382722 379728 378735 380741
      385752 388757 389761 389765 389770 393775 398777 401778
      402776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391807 391808
      392808 394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352725 349723 348719 344718 340722 335730 332735
      330739 331744 332749 334752 334757 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563046 551022 547021 543019 540014 531005 491975 485971
      481967 471962 464961 458959 453954 447949 442945 437942
      432940 428935 423931 418930 416928 401924 395924 389924
      385929 387935 388939 390943 395947 405955 411958 414962
      422972 426978 430981 433983 435986 436991 439995 433998
      430004 430006 433009 437012 464021 475027 477029 481030
      485034 496043 506052 510057 513062 517068 520073 536099
      539104 544107 545109 548108 550102 552099 553093 554085
      556069 557064 557059 560051 563046
 0.01 519276 520265 518255 513245 508238 487213 482214 479212
      474219 472223 472226 475225 479221 483219 487222 489224
      491226 491228 485233 476230 465236 462241 457241 451247
      448248 444247 438249 430251 427254 426257 428258 444258
      452257 455257 456259 452262 443274 440278 439285 440290
      444292 450291 456287 464284 470281 478279 481279 485280
      492286 496289 501291 508293 511292 513290
 0.01 335683 336688 333694 327702 321711 317722 307743 306746
      306750 307754 309757 310768 313777 315792 317798 321795
      327794 330790 335779 348759 357749 365750 369754 373759
      375765 376771 379776 383780 385781 389781 394783 399785
      398788 394790 387792 383797 377802 367809 364814 359819
      348836 351859 353861 355861 360861 363859 367854 369852
      372853 379854 385856 396860 405866 409868 411873 412877
      415878 419880 430883 453873 457874 459876 459882 459889
      457896 457901 459903 465913 470912 474907 476902 478897
      481889 484885 487869 491861 494861 496858 498856 502855
      505851 511846 511843 514840 516837 515834 515824 516815
      517808 519792 522779 523760 524754 522745 521740 520737
      518727 513709 511702 507698 502687 499682 496676 490665
      484656 476644 473637 470634 468630 467629 465632 463638
      458651 454661 463666 468669 471672 472677 471681 467687
      465690 462689 457689 453694 449701 443705 437700 429692
      425689 423684 421677 419674 419669 414670 412671 409674
      400667 393664 386663 383663 381661 379659 377659 367666
      358672 345676
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539042 536041 533042
      534047 535050 537053 538055 540057 542060 544061 546059
      548055 549052 550050
 0.25 514266 515264 515261 515259 515258 514256 514254 513253
      512251 511250 509250 508251 507253 508256 508257 509259
      509260 510262 510264 511265 512267 513268 514266
 0.25 504279 505274 504270 500264 498259 495253 491249 489249
      487254 486259 488266 491271 495276 499280 503281 504279
 0.25 527031 527027 525022 523019 521016 514014 506013 498013
      496013 495016 498023 503029 506031 507035 509038 513040
      520041 525039 527031
 0.25 435821 434820 432819 430819 432819 433821 434821 435821
 0.25 427791 427788 426788 425789 424790 424791 423793 422794
      421796 421799 422800 422799 423797 424796 425795 426793
      426792 427791
 0.25 419806 419804 418804 418806 419807 419806
 0.25 418811 418809 417807 417809 416811 418813 418811
 0.25 400723 400718 398716 395716 391717 388719 389723 390728
      390732 391737 392741 394743 397743 398741 399737 399735
      400730 400725 400723
 0.25 384685 381681 375680 365682 360684 356687 349696 346705
      346713 348720 351723 355723 358721 364714 370706 376698
      382689 384685

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 521261 522253 522249 523240 524235 527217 527210 525203
      523193 519183 517179 515174 514166 512160 507162 502170
      499177 500182 494192 492196 489200 483205 476210 472213
      469218 465221 463222 456228 450236 446248 444255 441257
      438260 436266 420276 414279 410280 407284 412292 419301
      422304 426306 436307 444313 448316 455319 488317 495312
      502307 507299 512287 514279 516273 521261
 0.01 507034 508029 508023 503016 499011 493005 488005 485007
      483012 483022 485030 489036 494041 499044 502042 504039
      507034
 0.01 474680 470673 466669 454658 448656 444659 444663 443670
      438672 427676 414684 412687 409688 406691 403696 391678
      388677 383677 377677 372678 369677 361681 356688 354697
      353702 353707 357719 364732 369738 375743 378744 382743
      386742 391739 397733 405727 410733 411730 412726 414722
      417722 419723 423732 425737 422739 420740 416742 415746
      413751 415755 416760 418764 419767 419772 417775 414776
      407782 404780 401783 397786 392787 386793 380800 376807
      375815 377819 383813 392810 396808 400811 405817 417830
      419824 421821 425820 431824 437828 445832 449836 452838
      455836 456832 457827 460822 473816 475815 477810 477805
      478800 477785 477777 475773 467769 464770 461770 459768
      457766 455764 455761 454750 454738 457730 460718 463710
      465705 468702 472700 470696 473693 474688 474680
 0.01 483874 478849 471841 465840 462844 460846 457846 453844
      447846 442849 436858 428858 424856 420854 416850 409842
      406845 406852 406859 408868 411871 415875 421875 426873
      438871 450868 456868 460871 463876 464886 463891 463900
      466899 470895 483874 483874
 0.01 443706 443703 443701 442699 442696 440694 438693 437695
      437697 437700 438702 438705 438707 438709 440710 442708
      443706
 0.01 440711 438709 437710 435710 433711 432713 432716 433718
      434720 435720 436721 438719 439716 439714 440711
 0.01 433973 433966 432957 428942 426936 423931 421926 416921
      414917 410912 405912 401917 401926 404931 409943 415954
      417959 421964 424969 429972 433973
 0.25 516262 517254 516247 514240 510233 504223 500218 496214
      490213 485215 484222 484225 482229 474233 467245 460254
      452262 444269 440275 438282 438289 441293 445298 453301
      463302 475302 479302 485301 494295 502288 509278 513269
      516262
 0.25 435766 434763 433763 433765 433766 435768 435766
 0.50 514261 515256 514251 510241 500224 495220 492225 492230
      490233 487236 480241 476249 471259 460271 455276 459286
      463288 468290 477290 485291 490291 493290 499285 505278
      510271 514261
 1.00 501275 502267 501262 499258 497254 494250 491247 487248
      485252 484258 483265 484270 487273 492275 496275 500275
      501275

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 082100
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY. ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH HAVE AN IMPACT ON QPF TOTALS. A PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MD...DE...SOUTHEAST PA
AND PORTIONS OF NJ. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP THE HIGHER TOTALS
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM/GEM/UKMET HAVE AN AXIS OF OF HIGHER
TOTALS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION. THE HIGH RES ARW/NMMB AND
GEM REGIONAL ARE ALSO HIGHER WITH AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE NAM IS LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH...WITH THE AXIS SHOWN BY
THE GEM/UKMET AND HIGH RES MODELS MORE LIKELY IF HIGHER TOTALS ARE
TO OCCUR. FOR NOW PLAYED A MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH PAINTS BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.25" OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AS THE POTENTIAL IS
CERTAINLY THERE FOR A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 0.5" SOMEWHERE FROM
FAR NORTHEAST MD INTO NORTHERN DE...FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN
NJ. DID DECREASE QPF SOME IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2 FROM
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW AND TROUGH GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW...BOTH
WITH LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WITH
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR QPF.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

WEAK WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THREATS TO THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG AREA OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS ACCOMPANYING THESE WEAK SYSTEMS. THUS SHOULD BE A
GOOD SETUP FOR A BAND OF LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE QUICK FLOW AND SUBTLE NATURE OF THE WAVES
NOT A SURPRISE THAT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IS LOW. SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION..CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS. THE 12Z GEM AND
NAM ARE ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET FURTHER SOUTHWEST. FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO
THESE SOUTHWEST SOLUTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN A SLIGHT TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION...AND THE 12Z PARALLEL GFS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF EVEN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 0Z ECMWF SEEMED A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET A BIT QUICK. SO THE WPC QPF STAYED
CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMED TO MATCH BEST WITH
OUR MOST PROBABLE TIMING AND AXIS PREFERENCE. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME
IN STRONGER...BUT QUICKER LIKE THE UKMET SOLUTION. MADE A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THIS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO HAVE MORE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE FOR USE. SEEMS LIKE THE TYPE OF SYSTEM IN WHICH THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE WILL BE MOST USEFUL...WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.


...NORTHWEST...

AS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST
COAST...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE WEST COAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE. OVERALL THERE
WAS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AMONG THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE SUITED...WITH THE 0Z GEM/UKMET QUICKER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY CONSISTENT TRENDS...WITH THE LATEST
UKMET TRENDING SLOWER...BUT THE GEM AND GFS A BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AS
THAT SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION IN THIS LOWER
CONFIDENCE PERIOD. THIS BRINGS SOME 0.25"-0.5" AMOUNTS INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WA...BUT KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF NORTH INTO CANADA THROUGH
0Z FRIDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

OTTO/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 455628 460628 465626 469623 474621 477625 483636
      483642 484649 483657 484662 486665 489670 490676 489680
      489688 487696 484705 482717 479730 477745 478752 477756
      477760 477768 476773 477777 479800 480819 481834 482851
      485865 482880 480894 475907 470917 466922 464923 462920
      458917 453916 445921 439921 432921 426921 422921 415919
      414917 411917 407915 403910 403908 396904 387899 384895
      382893 379893 371889 364890 360888 354888 350884 343874
      340869 335865 329859 333848 332843 333839 335835 338835
      342839 346838 349833 351828 354821 357816 361811 366808
      369802 370799 370795 366791 362789 358786 353787 349790
      343791 327805 320813 312822 304829 300832 297832 295830
      293826 292822 293817 293810 293804 295799 297794 298787
      296769 302759 307750 313740 322725 327716 334708 363672
      377661 388660 394669 396672 399671 401669 405668 412666
      416662 421651 425645 428639 432635 440630
 0.01 520070 516057 514050 507045 505044 503041 499033 506036
      513038 518036 519032 517028 514025 511024 504019 499018
      492019 483019 480017 476016 471013 464009 458005 450004
      442004 434003 429003 427006 427011 428016 428020 430022
      435023 434018 437014 444019 453027 458032 461035 465037
      468043 470046 474047 477050 479053 485058 497064 503068
      510074 515074 519072 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 411713 410716 410721 409728 409735
      410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 420747 419742 419738
      420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341772
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 252808 254804
      257802 261801 264802 267805 270806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469640 466637 463638 460640 456642 451642 445644
      440650 437659 436669 432677 428684 425688 425693 428702
      431705 434702 436694 437689 442687 446687 448690 451695
      454697 457699 460696 464688 469681 469676 468671 467661
      469651 470646
 0.25 475882 475879 472878 469872 469863 467860 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468887 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461818 460815 457810 452807 449807 446810 444815
      441816 438815 434813 428811 425815 422817 423822 426826
      428833 431838 435838 438837 443835 449837 451842 448848
      449851 452850 456846 461844 462840 461834 460826 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 413774 410771 407768 404762 399750 396742 392739
      392733 392726 389711 383708 382706 382702 384688 383684
      380680 375679 370682 362690 355700 341715 335724 329735
      325744 322755 320760 320767 323770 329767 336761 343753
      351744 357734 361726 363720 364717 368717 373717 375718
      375720 374727 375733 376737 374742 376747 378753 382758
      384764 385773 386781 392785 394787 393792 386799 382805
      380809 381816 383822 385827 389831 392829 394824 397821
      400821 401819 401815 402806 404799 408789 413781
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 403776 401770 401765 398757 394753 389739 388733 387729
      389725 388719 384715 384719 380724 378729 378734 379739
      380743 383747 386753 390760 393773 397778 398780 402779
      403776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391808 392808
      394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352726 349723 348720 344718 340723 335730 332735
      331738 331744 332749 334752 334756 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563046 559041 558038 557032 555025 550022 545021 541015
      534008 529004 523001 515993 497980 477964 468961 457957
      449945 440937 431933 421926 415926 410929 410933 412936
      412945 414952 417957 424966 438986 444996 437996 434997
      432999 430006 435010 446015 450015 451017 457018 468023
      479030 489036 506052 509057 514064 520074 533094 536099
      540105 543106 545109 549106 552100 554091 555072 558054
      563046
 0.01 519276 520269 520263 517253 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472225 473227 479221 483219 488223 491225
      490229 483234 480231 476230 470234 467235 465239 461242
      457242 451247 435249 430251 427254 426257 428258 438259
      441258 446258 452257 455257 456259 452262 447268 441275
      440279 439285 440291 444292 470281 479280 482279 487281
      490284 493286 496290 501291 508293 511292 513290
 0.01 335683 336688 333694 324705 314727 312734 309739 306745
      307751 313777 315792 318798 321796 326795 330790 332784
      338775 343766 347760 351756 359748 364750 369754 372758
      375765 377772 382779 393783 398785 398788 396789 388791
      385795 378801 373804 367809 364813 359819 353828 349833
      346840 348846 352852 351858 354861 360861 364858 368852
      373853 385856 390858 396860 405866 407866 410870 412877
      425881 429883 432883 434881 444877 453873 457873 459876
      459885 458893 457899 459903 465913 469913 471911 475903
      478897 481890 484884 485878 487870 489864 496858 505852
      510848 514840 517803 519788 522779 522771 524754 522749
      521739 517725 516717 514714 513709 500684 487660 475641
      469631 467629 465632 463638 460644 458651 455658 454661
      456663 466667 470672 472676 471681 467686 465690 462688
      457690 453694 450699 447703 444705 441704 437700 429692
      425687 423684 422678 420676 419670 414670 410674 405670
      400667 393665 389663 383663 379659 377659 367666 362670
      357672 345676
 0.25 550050 550044 549042 545038 539036 535034 528034 527037
      529039 532045 535050 538055 542060 545061 546059 549052
      550050
 0.25 514266 515264 515261 515259 515258 514256 514254 513253
      512251 511250 509250 508251 507253 508256 508257 509259
      509260 510262 510264 511265 512267 513268 514266
 0.25 504279 505273 504270 500264 498259 495253 491249 489250
      487254 486259 488266 491271 495276 499280 503281 504279
 0.25 527031 527026 525022 523018 521016 514014 506013 498013
      496015 497018 501024 506029 512035 517038 521040 525039
      527031
 0.25 435821 434820 432819 430819 432819 433821 434821 435821
 0.25 427791 427788 426788 425789 424790 424791 423793 422794
      421796 421799 422800 422799 423797 424796 425795 426793
      426792 427791
 0.25 419806 419804 418804 418806 419807 419806
 0.25 418811 418809 417807 417809 416811 418813 418811
 0.25 400723 400718 398716 395716 391717 388719 389723 390728
      390732 391737 392741 394743 397743 398741 399737 399735
      400730 400725 400723
 0.25 384685 381681 375680 365682 360684 356687 349696 346705
      346713 348720 352723 355723 358721 364714 370706 376698
      382689 384685

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 521261 522253 522249 523240 524235 527217 527210 525203
      523193 519183 517179 515174 514166 512160 507162 502170
      499177 500182 494192 492196 489200 483205 476210 472213
      469218 465221 463222 456228 450236 446248 444255 441257
      438260 436266 420276 414279 410280 407284 412292 419301
      422304 426306 436307 444313 448316 455319 488317 495312
      502307 507299 512287 514279 516273 521261
 0.01 507034 508029 508023 503016 499011 493005 488005 485007
      483012 483022 485030 489036 494041 499044 502042 504039
      507034
 0.01 474680 470673 466669 454658 448656 444659 444663 443670
      438672 427676 414684 412687 409688 406691 403696 391678
      388677 383677 377677 372678 369677 361681 356688 354697
      353702 353707 357719 364732 369738 375743 378744 382743
      386742 391739 397733 405727 410733 411730 412726 414722
      417722 419723 423732 425737 422739 420740 416742 415746
      413751 415755 416760 418764 419767 419772 417775 414776
      407782 404780 401783 397786 392787 386793 380800 376807
      375815 377819 383813 392810 396808 400811 405817 417830
      419824 421821 425820 431824 437828 445832 449836 452838
      455836 456832 457827 460822 473816 475815 477810 477805
      478800 477785 477777 475773 467769 464770 461770 459768
      457766 455764 455761 454750 454738 457730 460718 463710
      465705 468702 472700 470696 473693 474688 474680
 0.01 483874 478849 471841 465840 462844 460846 457846 453844
      447846 442849 436858 428858 424856 420854 416850 409842
      406845 406852 406859 408868 411871 415875 421875 426873
      438871 450868 456868 460871 463876 464886 463891 463900
      466899 470895 483874 483874
 0.01 443706 443703 443701 442699 442696 440694 438693 437695
      437697 437700 438702 438705 438707 438709 440710 442708
      443706
 0.01 440711 438709 437710 435710 433711 432713 432716 433718
      434720 435720 436721 438719 439716 439714 440711
 0.01 433973 433966 432957 428942 426936 423931 421926 416921
      414917 410912 405912 401917 401926 404931 409943 415954
      417959 421964 424969 429972 433973
 0.25 516262 517254 516247 514240 510233 504223 500218 496214
      490213 485215 484222 484225 482229 474233 467245 460254
      452262 444269 440275 438282 438289 441293 445298 453301
      463302 475302 479302 485301 494295 502288 509278 513269
      516262
 0.25 435766 434763 433763 433765 433766 435768 435766
 0.50 514261 515256 514251 510241 500224 495220 492225 492230
      490233 487236 480241 476249 471259 460271 455276 459286
      463288 468290 477290 485291 490291 493290 499285 505278
      510271 514261
 1.00 501275 502267 501262 499258 497254 494250 491247 487248
      485252 484258 483265 484270 487273 492275 496275 500275
      501275

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 082041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...


...NEW ENGLAND...

A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING DAY 1...AND
THE SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 2. A
THIRD SYSTEM COULD GRAZE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST DURING DAY 3.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOWS ON DAYS 2 AND 3...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WRAPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 1...WITH THE WESTERNMOST
DEFORMATION BANDS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ME THROUGH
AT LEAST 09/12Z. THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO
LOCALLY 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE...AND THESE
AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE 09Z SREF. FURTHER WEST...A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z NAM IS THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
THESE SEEMS TOO FAR ENOUGH NORTH CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF (AND SNOWFALL)
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK AND COASTAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THESE LOCATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

DAY 3...
AS THE LAST SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 3...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE BOTTOM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY...AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH.


...MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING DAY 1. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING HOW THE THERMAL FIELDS SET UP
ALONG THE TROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS EVENT COULD
HAVE SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCIES WITH IT. BASED ON THE
SPREAD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES
AND ELEVATION ISSUES...THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED ON A 12Z NAM/GFS/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF

DAY 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPINS UP ON A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST BEFORE 09/12Z.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 8.0
C/KM) AFTER 09/06Z...AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE A BLOOM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z. EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS WHEN THE
COLUMN SATURATES..AND THE INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FALL LINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE BEST LIFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
ACCUMULATION. CLOSER TO THE FALL LINE...THE EVENT BECOMES MORE
ELEVATION DRIVEN... AS THE INITIALLY WARM BOUNDARY IS OVERCOME BY
THE COOLING IN THE SATURATED COLUMN. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE 12Z
NAM...WHICH INDICATES THAT RIMING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR FOR
LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO THE FALL LINE.

A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MD/NORTHERN VA...WHERE RIMING AND PRECIPITATION PHASE PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD LIE FROM NORTHERN WV
ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/NORTHERN
DE/SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED. IN THIS AXIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
09Z SREF OUTPUT. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...AND THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT EXISTS BETWEEN 09/12Z
AND 09/18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER WHICH TIME LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS ON THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AHEAD OF A SHORT AVE DURING DAY 2 SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST
PA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO A PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY STATE.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MARYLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ...WHERE 2 TO
4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
12Z NAM STANDS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NJ...BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST...GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON.


...GREAT LAKES...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 1 OPENS
INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WAS BASED MAINLY ON THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF...AS THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF THESE MODELS BETTER DEPICT THE LAKE EFFECT
STRUCTURE. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTS THE SETUP OF LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AS
THIS FLOW IS CLOSER TO THE MAJOR LAKE AXES THAN IT IS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE UP OF MI (ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA)...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI (WITH FLOW OFF
NORTHERNMOST LAKE MI AND EASTERNMOST LAKE SUPERIOR)...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE LP OF MI. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL MEMBERS FROM THE 09Z SREF.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS AN AREA OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MI AND NEARBY NORTH
CENTRAL IN. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW NEARLY PARALLELS THE MAJOR
AXIS OF LAKE MI...AND THE FETCH SHOULD ALLOW THIS AXIS TO AFFECT
MORE OF NORTHERN IN. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM NEITHER THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE NOR THE 09Z SREF FOR THIS...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z NAM
CAN SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

DAY 2...
AS THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN
(AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STARTS TO
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS THE LOWER LAKES TO BECOME MORE
INVOLVED IN THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAYER FLOW...COUPLED WITH CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPENING TO
825 MB...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCAL 4 TO 6 INCHES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THE FETCHES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED BY THE BACKING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WHILE THIS COULD SUPPORT A LARGER AREA OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS (OUTSIDE OF THE UP OF MI) ARE PROBABLY UNLIKELY.

DAY 3...
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT CIRCULATIONS OFF EACH LAKE ON DAY 3. THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT AS
ROBUST AS DAY 2...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS ARE NOT AS DEEP...AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF EACH
LAKE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A SHORT WAVE STREAKING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN SD DURING DAY 2. THE
12Z GFS/NAM AREA CLOSER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AND SNOWFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OCCURS IN THE 10/12Z
TO 10/18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN SD. THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY...AND THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY
SCANT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWED MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD.
NONE OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED 4+ INCH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HERE...AND ONLY A FEW OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOWED THIS
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RELATIVE PAUCITY OF MOISTURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...4+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM
UNLIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HAYES

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 082041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...


...NEW ENGLAND...

A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING DAY 1...AND
THE SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 2. A
THIRD SYSTEM COULD GRAZE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST DURING DAY 3.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOWS ON DAYS 2 AND 3...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WRAPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 1...WITH THE WESTERNMOST
DEFORMATION BANDS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ME THROUGH
AT LEAST 09/12Z. THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO
LOCALLY 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE...AND THESE
AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE 09Z SREF. FURTHER WEST...A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z NAM IS THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
THESE SEEMS TOO FAR ENOUGH NORTH CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF (AND SNOWFALL)
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK AND COASTAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THESE LOCATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

DAY 3...
AS THE LAST SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 3...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE BOTTOM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY...AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH.


...MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING DAY 1. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING HOW THE THERMAL FIELDS SET UP
ALONG THE TROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS EVENT COULD
HAVE SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCIES WITH IT. BASED ON THE
SPREAD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES
AND ELEVATION ISSUES...THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED ON A 12Z NAM/GFS/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF

DAY 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPINS UP ON A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST BEFORE 09/12Z.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 8.0
C/KM) AFTER 09/06Z...AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE A BLOOM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z. EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS WHEN THE
COLUMN SATURATES..AND THE INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FALL LINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE BEST LIFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
ACCUMULATION. CLOSER TO THE FALL LINE...THE EVENT BECOMES MORE
ELEVATION DRIVEN... AS THE INITIALLY WARM BOUNDARY IS OVERCOME BY
THE COOLING IN THE SATURATED COLUMN. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE 12Z
NAM...WHICH INDICATES THAT RIMING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR FOR
LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO THE FALL LINE.

A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MD/NORTHERN VA...WHERE RIMING AND PRECIPITATION PHASE PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD LIE FROM NORTHERN WV
ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/NORTHERN
DE/SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED. IN THIS AXIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
09Z SREF OUTPUT. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...AND THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT EXISTS BETWEEN 09/12Z
AND 09/18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER WHICH TIME LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS ON THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AHEAD OF A SHORT AVE DURING DAY 2 SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST
PA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO A PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY STATE.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MARYLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ...WHERE 2 TO
4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
12Z NAM STANDS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NJ...BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST...GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON.


...GREAT LAKES...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 1 OPENS
INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WAS BASED MAINLY ON THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF...AS THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF THESE MODELS BETTER DEPICT THE LAKE EFFECT
STRUCTURE. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTS THE SETUP OF LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AS
THIS FLOW IS CLOSER TO THE MAJOR LAKE AXES THAN IT IS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE UP OF MI (ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA)...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI (WITH FLOW OFF
NORTHERNMOST LAKE MI AND EASTERNMOST LAKE SUPERIOR)...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE LP OF MI. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL MEMBERS FROM THE 09Z SREF.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS AN AREA OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MI AND NEARBY NORTH
CENTRAL IN. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW NEARLY PARALLELS THE MAJOR
AXIS OF LAKE MI...AND THE FETCH SHOULD ALLOW THIS AXIS TO AFFECT
MORE OF NORTHERN IN. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM NEITHER THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE NOR THE 09Z SREF FOR THIS...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z NAM
CAN SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

DAY 2...
AS THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN
(AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STARTS TO
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS THE LOWER LAKES TO BECOME MORE
INVOLVED IN THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAYER FLOW...COUPLED WITH CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPENING TO
825 MB...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCAL 4 TO 6 INCHES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THE FETCHES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED BY THE BACKING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WHILE THIS COULD SUPPORT A LARGER AREA OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS (OUTSIDE OF THE UP OF MI) ARE PROBABLY UNLIKELY.

DAY 3...
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT CIRCULATIONS OFF EACH LAKE ON DAY 3. THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT AS
ROBUST AS DAY 2...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS ARE NOT AS DEEP...AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF EACH
LAKE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A SHORT WAVE STREAKING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN SD DURING DAY 2. THE
12Z GFS/NAM AREA CLOSER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AND SNOWFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OCCURS IN THE 10/12Z
TO 10/18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN SD. THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY...AND THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY
SCANT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWED MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD.
NONE OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED 4+ INCH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HERE...AND ONLY A FEW OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOWED THIS
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RELATIVE PAUCITY OF MOISTURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...4+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM
UNLIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HAYES

$$




000
FOUS11 KWBC 082041
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...


...NEW ENGLAND...

A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING DAY 1...AND
THE SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 2. A
THIRD SYSTEM COULD GRAZE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST DURING DAY 3.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOWS ON DAYS 2 AND 3...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WRAPPING UP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 1...WITH THE WESTERNMOST
DEFORMATION BANDS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ME THROUGH
AT LEAST 09/12Z. THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO
LOCALLY 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE...AND THESE
AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE 09Z SREF. FURTHER WEST...A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z NAM IS THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
THESE SEEMS TOO FAR ENOUGH NORTH CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF (AND SNOWFALL)
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK AND COASTAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THESE LOCATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

DAY 3...
AS THE LAST SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 3...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE BOTTOM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY...AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH.


...MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING DAY 1. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING HOW THE THERMAL FIELDS SET UP
ALONG THE TROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS EVENT COULD
HAVE SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCIES WITH IT. BASED ON THE
SPREAD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES
AND ELEVATION ISSUES...THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED ON A 12Z NAM/GFS/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF

DAY 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPINS UP ON A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST BEFORE 09/12Z.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 8.0
C/KM) AFTER 09/06Z...AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE A BLOOM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z. EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS WHEN THE
COLUMN SATURATES..AND THE INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FALL LINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE BEST LIFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
ACCUMULATION. CLOSER TO THE FALL LINE...THE EVENT BECOMES MORE
ELEVATION DRIVEN... AS THE INITIALLY WARM BOUNDARY IS OVERCOME BY
THE COOLING IN THE SATURATED COLUMN. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE 12Z
NAM...WHICH INDICATES THAT RIMING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR FOR
LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO THE FALL LINE.

A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MD/NORTHERN VA...WHERE RIMING AND PRECIPITATION PHASE PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD LIE FROM NORTHERN WV
ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/NORTHERN
DE/SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED. IN THIS AXIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
09Z SREF OUTPUT. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...AND THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT EXISTS BETWEEN 09/12Z
AND 09/18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER WHICH TIME LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

DAY 2...
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS ON THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AHEAD OF A SHORT AVE DURING DAY 2 SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST
PA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO A PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY STATE.
THE BEST LIFT WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST MARYLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ...WHERE 2 TO
4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE
12Z NAM STANDS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NJ...BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST...GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON.


...GREAT LAKES...

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 1 OPENS
INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WAS BASED MAINLY ON THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF...AS THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF THESE MODELS BETTER DEPICT THE LAKE EFFECT
STRUCTURE. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

DAY 1...
AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTS THE SETUP OF LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AS
THIS FLOW IS CLOSER TO THE MAJOR LAKE AXES THAN IT IS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE UP OF MI (ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA)...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI (WITH FLOW OFF
NORTHERNMOST LAKE MI AND EASTERNMOST LAKE SUPERIOR)...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE LP OF MI. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AS WELL MEMBERS FROM THE 09Z SREF.

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS AN AREA OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MI AND NEARBY NORTH
CENTRAL IN. THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW NEARLY PARALLELS THE MAJOR
AXIS OF LAKE MI...AND THE FETCH SHOULD ALLOW THIS AXIS TO AFFECT
MORE OF NORTHERN IN. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM NEITHER THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE NOR THE 09Z SREF FOR THIS...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z NAM
CAN SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

DAY 2...
AS THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN
(AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STARTS TO
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS THE LOWER LAKES TO BECOME MORE
INVOLVED IN THE LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAYER FLOW...COUPLED WITH CAPPING INVERSIONS DEEPENING TO
825 MB...SHOULD SUPPORT LOCAL 4 TO 6 INCHES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THE FETCHES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED BY THE BACKING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WHILE THIS COULD SUPPORT A LARGER AREA OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS (OUTSIDE OF THE UP OF MI) ARE PROBABLY UNLIKELY.

DAY 3...
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT CIRCULATIONS OFF EACH LAKE ON DAY 3. THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT AS
ROBUST AS DAY 2...AS CAPPING INVERSIONS ARE NOT AS DEEP...AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF EACH
LAKE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A SHORT WAVE STREAKING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN SD DURING DAY 2. THE
12Z GFS/NAM AREA CLOSER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AND SNOWFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF.

THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OCCURS IN THE 10/12Z
TO 10/18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN SD. THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY...AND THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY
SCANT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWED MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD.
NONE OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED 4+ INCH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HERE...AND ONLY A FEW OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOWED THIS
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RELATIVE PAUCITY OF MOISTURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...4+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM
UNLIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HAYES

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 081900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 455628 460628 465626 469623 474621 477625 483636
      483642 484649 483657 484662 486665 489670 490676 489680
      489688 487696 484705 482717 479730 477745 478752 477756
      477760 477768 476773 477777 479800 480819 481834 482851
      485865 482880 480894 475907 470917 466922 464923 462920
      458917 453916 445921 439921 432921 426921 422921 415919
      414917 411917 407915 403910 403908 396904 387899 384895
      382893 379893 371889 364890 360888 354888 350884 343874
      340869 335865 329859 333848 332843 333839 335835 338835
      342839 346838 349833 351828 354821 357816 361811 366808
      369802 370799 370795 366791 362789 358786 353787 349790
      343791 327805 320813 312822 304829 300832 297832 295830
      293826 292822 293817 293810 293804 295799 297794 298787
      296769 302759 307750 313740 322725 327716 334708 363672
      377661 388660 394669 396672 399671 401669 405668 412666
      416662 421651 425645 428639 432635 440630
 0.01 520070 516057 514050 507045 505044 503041 499033 506036
      513038 518036 519032 517028 514025 511024 504019 499018
      492019 483019 480017 476016 471013 464009 458005 450004
      442004 434003 429003 427006 427011 428016 428020 430022
      435023 434018 437014 444019 453027 458032 461035 465037
      468043 470046 474047 477050 479053 485058 497064 503068
      510074 515074 519072 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 411713 410716 410721 409728 409735
      410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 420747 419742 419738
      420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341772
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 252808 254804
      257802 261801 264802 267805 270806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469640 466637 463638 460640 456642 451642 445644
      440650 437659 436669 432677 428684 425688 425693 428702
      431705 434702 436694 437689 442687 446687 448690 451695
      454697 457699 460696 464688 469681 469676 468671 467661
      469651 470646
 0.25 475882 475879 472878 469872 469863 467860 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468887 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461818 460815 457810 452807 449807 446810 444815
      441816 438815 434813 428811 425815 422817 423822 426826
      428833 431838 435838 438837 443835 449837 451842 448848
      449851 452850 456846 461844 462840 461834 460826 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 413774 410771 407768 404762 399750 396742 392739
      392733 392726 389711 383708 382706 382702 384688 383684
      380680 375679 370682 362690 355700 341715 335724 329735
      325744 322755 320760 320767 323770 329767 336761 343753
      351744 357734 361726 363720 364717 368717 373717 375718
      375720 374727 375733 376737 374742 376747 378753 382758
      384764 385773 386781 392785 394787 393792 386799 382805
      380809 381816 383822 385827 389831 392829 394824 397821
      400821 401819 401815 402806 404799 408789 413781
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 403776 401770 401765 398757 394753 389739 388733 387729
      389725 388719 384715 384719 380724 378729 378734 379739
      380743 383747 386753 390760 393773 397778 398780 402779
      403776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391808 392808
      394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352726 349723 348720 344718 340723 335730 332735
      331738 331744 332749 334752 334756 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 081900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 455628 460628 465626 469623 474621 477625 483636
      483642 484649 483657 484662 486665 489670 490676 489680
      489688 487696 484705 482717 479730 477745 478752 477756
      477760 477768 476773 477777 479800 480819 481834 482851
      485865 482880 480894 475907 470917 466922 464923 462920
      458917 453916 445921 439921 432921 426921 422921 415919
      414917 411917 407915 403910 403908 396904 387899 384895
      382893 379893 371889 364890 360888 354888 350884 343874
      340869 335865 329859 333848 332843 333839 335835 338835
      342839 346838 349833 351828 354821 357816 361811 366808
      369802 370799 370795 366791 362789 358786 353787 349790
      343791 327805 320813 312822 304829 300832 297832 295830
      293826 292822 293817 293810 293804 295799 297794 298787
      296769 302759 307750 313740 322725 327716 334708 363672
      377661 388660 394669 396672 399671 401669 405668 412666
      416662 421651 425645 428639 432635 440630
 0.01 520070 516057 514050 507045 505044 503041 499033 506036
      513038 518036 519032 517028 514025 511024 504019 499018
      492019 483019 480017 476016 471013 464009 458005 450004
      442004 434003 429003 427006 427011 428016 428020 430022
      435023 434018 437014 444019 453027 458032 461035 465037
      468043 470046 474047 477050 479053 485058 497064 503068
      510074 515074 519072 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 411713 410716 410721 409728 409735
      410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 420747 419742 419738
      420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341772
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 252808 254804
      257802 261801 264802 267805 270806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469640 466637 463638 460640 456642 451642 445644
      440650 437659 436669 432677 428684 425688 425693 428702
      431705 434702 436694 437689 442687 446687 448690 451695
      454697 457699 460696 464688 469681 469676 468671 467661
      469651 470646
 0.25 475882 475879 472878 469872 469863 467860 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468887 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461818 460815 457810 452807 449807 446810 444815
      441816 438815 434813 428811 425815 422817 423822 426826
      428833 431838 435838 438837 443835 449837 451842 448848
      449851 452850 456846 461844 462840 461834 460826 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 413774 410771 407768 404762 399750 396742 392739
      392733 392726 389711 383708 382706 382702 384688 383684
      380680 375679 370682 362690 355700 341715 335724 329735
      325744 322755 320760 320767 323770 329767 336761 343753
      351744 357734 361726 363720 364717 368717 373717 375718
      375720 374727 375733 376737 374742 376747 378753 382758
      384764 385773 386781 392785 394787 393792 386799 382805
      380809 381816 383822 385827 389831 392829 394824 397821
      400821 401819 401815 402806 404799 408789 413781
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 403776 401770 401765 398757 394753 389739 388733 387729
      389725 388719 384715 384719 380724 378729 378734 379739
      380743 383747 386753 390760 393773 397778 398780 402779
      403776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391808 392808
      394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352726 349723 348720 344718 340723 335730 332735
      331738 331744 332749 334752 334756 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 081900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 455628 460628 465626 469623 474621 477625 483636
      483642 484649 483657 484662 486665 489670 490676 489680
      489688 487696 484705 482717 479730 477745 478752 477756
      477760 477768 476773 477777 479800 480819 481834 482851
      485865 482880 480894 475907 470917 466922 464923 462920
      458917 453916 445921 439921 432921 426921 422921 415919
      414917 411917 407915 403910 403908 396904 387899 384895
      382893 379893 371889 364890 360888 354888 350884 343874
      340869 335865 329859 333848 332843 333839 335835 338835
      342839 346838 349833 351828 354821 357816 361811 366808
      369802 370799 370795 366791 362789 358786 353787 349790
      343791 327805 320813 312822 304829 300832 297832 295830
      293826 292822 293817 293810 293804 295799 297794 298787
      296769 302759 307750 313740 322725 327716 334708 363672
      377661 388660 394669 396672 399671 401669 405668 412666
      416662 421651 425645 428639 432635 440630
 0.01 520070 516057 514050 507045 505044 503041 499033 506036
      513038 518036 519032 517028 514025 511024 504019 499018
      492019 483019 480017 476016 471013 464009 458005 450004
      442004 434003 429003 427006 427011 428016 428020 430022
      435023 434018 437014 444019 453027 458032 461035 465037
      468043 470046 474047 477050 479053 485058 497064 503068
      510074 515074 519072 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 411713 410716 410721 409728 409735
      410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 420747 419742 419738
      420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341772
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 252808 254804
      257802 261801 264802 267805 270806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469640 466637 463638 460640 456642 451642 445644
      440650 437659 436669 432677 428684 425688 425693 428702
      431705 434702 436694 437689 442687 446687 448690 451695
      454697 457699 460696 464688 469681 469676 468671 467661
      469651 470646
 0.25 475882 475879 472878 469872 469863 467860 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468887 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461818 460815 457810 452807 449807 446810 444815
      441816 438815 434813 428811 425815 422817 423822 426826
      428833 431838 435838 438837 443835 449837 451842 448848
      449851 452850 456846 461844 462840 461834 460826 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 413774 410771 407768 404762 399750 396742 392739
      392733 392726 389711 383708 382706 382702 384688 383684
      380680 375679 370682 362690 355700 341715 335724 329735
      325744 322755 320760 320767 323770 329767 336761 343753
      351744 357734 361726 363720 364717 368717 373717 375718
      375720 374727 375733 376737 374742 376747 378753 382758
      384764 385773 386781 392785 394787 393792 386799 382805
      380809 381816 383822 385827 389831 392829 394824 397821
      400821 401819 401815 402806 404799 408789 413781
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 403776 401770 401765 398757 394753 389739 388733 387729
      389725 388719 384715 384719 380724 378729 378734 379739
      380743 383747 386753 390760 393773 397778 398780 402779
      403776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391808 392808
      394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352726 349723 348720 344718 340723 335730 332735
      331738 331744 332749 334752 334756 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 081458
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 15Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

OTTO
$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 081324
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 11 2016


DAYS 1 TO 3...

...MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...

AS THIS EVENT GROWS CLOSER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS THAN EARLIER EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MESOSCALE
DETAILS THAT REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION. A VERY
ACTIVE COMPLEX SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A
CHALLENGING FORECAST.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE CONSENSUS FOR
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 1/MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THERE IS ALSO MORE CONFIDENCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
MARYLAND AND SW PENNSYLVANIA.  THERE IS EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE FOR A
POSSIBLE SMALLER SCALE SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE
MARYLAND/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BUT THE EXTENT AND DIMENSIONS ARE
STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR DAY 1 INTO DAY 2/MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A POWERFUL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A
LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE OVER AN INCH MELTED QPF OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ON DAY 1 INCLUDING THE ARW/NMM AS WELL
AS THE NAM/SREFMEAN. MOST OF THE RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS/ENSEMBLE
MEANS PUT .5 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW JUST SOUTH
OF BOSTON WITH A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A
FOOT OF SNOW.

WHILE THE INTENSE STORM AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST COAST...THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION
WILL CAUSE SNOW TO BREAK OUT OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO/THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO THE MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ON DAY 1 AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH ENCOUNTERS A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  THERE ARE MODERATE
PROBABILITIES THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES IN THESE
LOCATIONS ON DAY 1 AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE.

A SECOND IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON
THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON DAY 2/TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THIS RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ALSO MOVES OVER THE
WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.  WHILE YESTERDAYS MODELS HAD A REALLY
DISPERSED SOLUTION...TONIGHTS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA INTO SW PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
NEAR THE BORDER OF PENNSYLVANIA/NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE.  THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN
4 INCHES OF SNOW ON DAY 2. ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP FOSTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON DAY 2 AND THEN PRODUCES SOME AREAS OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
DAY 3.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 081053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
552 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A LARGE
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WHICH STARTS OVER THE STATE OF MI AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. TJE UPPER
DYNAMICS HELP SPIN UP ANOTHER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.  A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM
THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH FOCUSES MOISTURE AND PCPN ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS A COMMON IDEA.  SO WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...WE WERE ABLE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY PLUS A GFS/ECMWF COMBO
WITH MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS THE GFS.  ON WED...DEEP COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 470622 473621 477625 483636 483651 483658 483661
      484671 486691 486698 484702 476715 472719 466722 463723
      461726 458731 456744 453762 455773 458776 461775 471776
      481781 485783 488789 492805 486816 482827 480830 479835
      482845 483851 485851 489856 491863 494868 491881 487897
      486917 486925 483929 481930 479927 477925 476927 471932
      464937 456943 450945 442945 440945 440940 438937 440935
      440927 440921 438918 434916 429919 421926 417928 414926
      408923 403917 396915 394920 397926 402929 407931 411934
      415939 418945 422950 421954 417954 412954 408951 404948
      402946 398945 395943 391943 386939 382936 379931 371925
      367920 366918 366915 364911 362903 361894 361888 360885
      358878 355872 353868 350868 348871 343873 340868 339865
      340862 335861 331858 329852 329848 330845 332841 335834
      338830 339825 336822 331825 314839 305846 296838 295831
      292826 293820 293813 293805 294800 297793 297783 296769
      302759 308748 314738 326719 341697 348690 355681 363672
      369667 374662 380660 386661 389661 391664 394669 396669
      398667 404665 409661 413656 419644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 504015 500013 495012 473011
      470013 466011 458005 453005 449006 445009 442012 452027
      460034 467038 472039 474041 476042 483047 486052 490056
      493058 498060 501059 502051 505047 508045 511043 513043
      518043 522036
 0.01 427845 430843 434844 435844 437842 437841 436840 434840
      432840 429839 428838 426836 424837 423837 421837 419837
      417837 416838 415840 416841 418841 419841 420841 421843
      423843 425845 427845
 0.01 422756 422751 420747 420745 418743 414742 411743 407744
      405745 406747 408749 410753 411756 414757 416759 420758
      422756
 0.01 374754 373748 372745 371743 369742 366744 359748 353753
      348758 345764 342771 342776 346776 353772 358767 365762
      370759 373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 246805 244809
      243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253812 251808
      252806 254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 250053 252056 254063 256069 261076 264077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 463636 458636 452635 446637 439641
      431648 422657 415666 408676 401685 394694 390700 388705
      386711 386716 387721 396728 401730 407730 414728 419725
      425723 431719 439711 451689 457680 460674 461666 464661
      467656 469650 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 467819 467813 466808 460803 445798 440792 438789 435790
      428795 424796 418795 413791 410788 410784 407777 401771
      399769 397765 395759 393755 387753 385756 385763 386768
      385772 383777 382782 384789 379797 369809 364814 359821
      355828 351835 350839 353840 358834 362829 367827 371829
      375830 380829 390828 398829 405834 409831 411828 413825
      418823 425820 430820 434823 440826 448827 461828 465824
      467819
 0.25 466866 465866 464865 463866 464868 465866 466866
 0.25 384690 383683 380679 374679 370682 362690 356698 350704
      343713 338721 332730 327738 323749 321759 319765 320767
      322769 329765 337759 344752 351744 356737 360727 363722
      366717 371715 376712 381704 384692 384690
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 431658 424663 418671 407687
      402695 398705 396716 399720 403721 408721 414719 420717
      425715 431709 436700 441691 444681 453663 458656 460649
 0.50 460815 460812 459811 457811 456812 454813 454814 454816
      455818 456819 458819 459817 460815
 0.50 411819 407815 403813 400812 396811 393808 390804 387806
      384811 386817 389820 393820 399821 402821 407820 411819
 0.50 395775 395774 394775 395776 395775
 0.50 399777 398777 397777 399777 399777
 0.50 377691 376687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697 368700
      369705 372705 373704 375701 376698 377694 377691
 0.50 351735 348735 346732 349725 348719 344718 340722 335730
      332735 330739 331744 332749 334752 337752 340750 345745
      349740 351735
 1.00 446656 445653 443654 440658 434667 430671 426674 422678
      420683 418688 415692 412698 414700 417704 422706 428696
      432685 435674 437670 441666 444661 446656

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 509288 509282 507277 505272 504265 504260 502254 498251
      494248 491244 486243 482243 476242 468242 460245 442249
      434250 430251 426254 427257 428258 433258 443258 452258
      462258 466257 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286
      506289 509288
 0.01 487699 486691 484684 481671 479665 476661 467657 458653
      453653 450659 448664 444668 437674 429681 424683 420682
      408685 402685 398686 388693 380702 375705 370707 365710
      360711 349715 343721 329736 325746 320755 314778 312783
      315786 319787 323785 330778 336770 348751 352748 358746
      367748 371751 375756 376757 375760 373764 370768 369773
      366777 368783 374783 378781 381786 383793 380798 376801
      372803 369804 367804 366807 364813 361816 358820 356826
      353826 348834 333838 332844 332851 329855 329859 341875
      355888 366887 374882 383886 388890 394892 398892 403895
      408894 412892 415896 420900 427897 431894 437892 449896
      449901 452902 456905 462912 466913 470912 475901 477897
      478891 482878 483870 482861 481840 479807 466754 464751
      464747 463741 467736 469731 472726 476721 480712 484705
      487699
 0.01 498062 499057 498053 496048 492043 490038 484029 479025
      476019 469013 460008 454008 451007 448005 439999 433990
      428992 424992 423996 421998 415998 417002 422006 427014
      433023 444026 449030 454032 462038 465039 467042 470046
      476048 479053 481060 484063 493064 498062
 0.01 441723 441721 440719 438717 436717 434718 433720 431723
      433725 435724 437724 439726 440724 441723
 0.25 473885 474877 472871 471866 469863 467860 467856 467858
      466866 465871 465878 467883 467890 469892 471890 473886
      473885
 0.25 465851 463846 461841 457838 454840 451844 448847 444851
      443854 441858 441861 443862 448862 452860 455857 459854
      463852 465851
 0.25 413715 414710 412706 408705 404705 396707 389712 384716
      382723 380731 381737 383740 386747 388752 388758 389763
      390768 394775 398781 402781 404779 407772 408767 408764
      406755 406749 407745 408736 409728 413715
 0.25 424862 422861 421860 420860 420863 421865 422865 424863
      424862
 0.25 419787 419783 417783 410787 406789 402788 399788 396791
      391796 387802 386805 389806 396805 403805 411803 416799
      419790 419787
 0.50 390732 390730 389730 390732 390732

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 519276 520270 519265 518255 511237 504221 501214 494210
      490210 486207 484204 481203 477212 475215 471217 469214
      465214 460219 458223 455227 450232 444237 439243 428255
      417264 412269 407277 408286 411293 418292 425288 436280
      444292 450291 456288 470282 476280 484280 498290 507293
      510293 513290
 0.01 516025 516017 514012 511006 508003 495987 481974 472969
      469966 466961 457956 452954 448954 445958 446963 452972
      459979 467985 469990 472994 475999 478003 475009 478014
      481017 489023 498023 505029 511030 513030 514027 516025
 0.01 476692 476686 474682 469683 466687 460690 453691 451694
      448693 447689 447686 447681 445676 440670 432667 425668
      415671 410673 407676 404682 386714 382720 377728 374731
      373736 375741 376744 380747 384747 391742 396737 402741
      404741 405744 405750 403755 404760 409767 410772 409777
      405780 399781 392785 386791 380791 380797 377800 369804
      359816 355823 354828 355835 354841 362836 364841 363845
      360850 360852 364852 367849 376853 383856 389861 407864
      418876 426877 435876 446876 449877 454877 457878 457882
      457889 456898 460903 462906 466908 472904 475897 480889
      483884 482883 481879 481875 480869 476860 465819 464815
      466812 470804 471798 471792 471788 469786 469781 466778
      464774 461770 457769 455766 455762 454749 454738 455732
      458727 462720 466710 469704 469699 476692
 0.01 442014 443009 443007 439006 436004 434004 431002 429001
      427999 425999 425002 427006 427009 429011 432012 435014
      437014 441014 442014
 0.01 383777 383772 382768 382764 381759 380757 378754 376755
      375758 375762 375767 376771 377776 378778 381780 383777
 0.25 511276 512270 513263 512255 511250 509246 505239 501233
      499232 497237 500245 503252 499258 502266 505274 508277
      511276
 0.25 457249 457247 455248 454248 453249 452250 451252 450252
      449254 450255 451255 452254 453253 454252 455251 456250
      457249
 0.25 422799 422796 421796 420797 419799 418801 418802 420804
      421801 422801 422799
 0.25 424865 422863 421863 421862 420863 420865 421865 422865
      424865
 0.25 392803 390802 388803 387803 385804 383806 382807 382808
      380809 379812 380813 382812 384811 385810 387809 388808
      389807 390806 390805 392803

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 081053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
552 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A LARGE
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WHICH STARTS OVER THE STATE OF MI AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. TJE UPPER
DYNAMICS HELP SPIN UP ANOTHER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.  A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM
THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH FOCUSES MOISTURE AND PCPN ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS A COMMON IDEA.  SO WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...WE WERE ABLE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY PLUS A GFS/ECMWF COMBO
WITH MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS THE GFS.  ON WED...DEEP COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 470622 473621 477625 483636 483651 483658 483661
      484671 486691 486698 484702 476715 472719 466722 463723
      461726 458731 456744 453762 455773 458776 461775 471776
      481781 485783 488789 492805 486816 482827 480830 479835
      482845 483851 485851 489856 491863 494868 491881 487897
      486917 486925 483929 481930 479927 477925 476927 471932
      464937 456943 450945 442945 440945 440940 438937 440935
      440927 440921 438918 434916 429919 421926 417928 414926
      408923 403917 396915 394920 397926 402929 407931 411934
      415939 418945 422950 421954 417954 412954 408951 404948
      402946 398945 395943 391943 386939 382936 379931 371925
      367920 366918 366915 364911 362903 361894 361888 360885
      358878 355872 353868 350868 348871 343873 340868 339865
      340862 335861 331858 329852 329848 330845 332841 335834
      338830 339825 336822 331825 314839 305846 296838 295831
      292826 293820 293813 293805 294800 297793 297783 296769
      302759 308748 314738 326719 341697 348690 355681 363672
      369667 374662 380660 386661 389661 391664 394669 396669
      398667 404665 409661 413656 419644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 504015 500013 495012 473011
      470013 466011 458005 453005 449006 445009 442012 452027
      460034 467038 472039 474041 476042 483047 486052 490056
      493058 498060 501059 502051 505047 508045 511043 513043
      518043 522036
 0.01 427845 430843 434844 435844 437842 437841 436840 434840
      432840 429839 428838 426836 424837 423837 421837 419837
      417837 416838 415840 416841 418841 419841 420841 421843
      423843 425845 427845
 0.01 422756 422751 420747 420745 418743 414742 411743 407744
      405745 406747 408749 410753 411756 414757 416759 420758
      422756
 0.01 374754 373748 372745 371743 369742 366744 359748 353753
      348758 345764 342771 342776 346776 353772 358767 365762
      370759 373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 246805 244809
      243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253812 251808
      252806 254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 250053 252056 254063 256069 261076 264077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 463636 458636 452635 446637 439641
      431648 422657 415666 408676 401685 394694 390700 388705
      386711 386716 387721 396728 401730 407730 414728 419725
      425723 431719 439711 451689 457680 460674 461666 464661
      467656 469650 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 467819 467813 466808 460803 445798 440792 438789 435790
      428795 424796 418795 413791 410788 410784 407777 401771
      399769 397765 395759 393755 387753 385756 385763 386768
      385772 383777 382782 384789 379797 369809 364814 359821
      355828 351835 350839 353840 358834 362829 367827 371829
      375830 380829 390828 398829 405834 409831 411828 413825
      418823 425820 430820 434823 440826 448827 461828 465824
      467819
 0.25 466866 465866 464865 463866 464868 465866 466866
 0.25 384690 383683 380679 374679 370682 362690 356698 350704
      343713 338721 332730 327738 323749 321759 319765 320767
      322769 329765 337759 344752 351744 356737 360727 363722
      366717 371715 376712 381704 384692 384690
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 431658 424663 418671 407687
      402695 398705 396716 399720 403721 408721 414719 420717
      425715 431709 436700 441691 444681 453663 458656 460649
 0.50 460815 460812 459811 457811 456812 454813 454814 454816
      455818 456819 458819 459817 460815
 0.50 411819 407815 403813 400812 396811 393808 390804 387806
      384811 386817 389820 393820 399821 402821 407820 411819
 0.50 395775 395774 394775 395776 395775
 0.50 399777 398777 397777 399777 399777
 0.50 377691 376687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697 368700
      369705 372705 373704 375701 376698 377694 377691
 0.50 351735 348735 346732 349725 348719 344718 340722 335730
      332735 330739 331744 332749 334752 337752 340750 345745
      349740 351735
 1.00 446656 445653 443654 440658 434667 430671 426674 422678
      420683 418688 415692 412698 414700 417704 422706 428696
      432685 435674 437670 441666 444661 446656

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 509288 509282 507277 505272 504265 504260 502254 498251
      494248 491244 486243 482243 476242 468242 460245 442249
      434250 430251 426254 427257 428258 433258 443258 452258
      462258 466257 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286
      506289 509288
 0.01 487699 486691 484684 481671 479665 476661 467657 458653
      453653 450659 448664 444668 437674 429681 424683 420682
      408685 402685 398686 388693 380702 375705 370707 365710
      360711 349715 343721 329736 325746 320755 314778 312783
      315786 319787 323785 330778 336770 348751 352748 358746
      367748 371751 375756 376757 375760 373764 370768 369773
      366777 368783 374783 378781 381786 383793 380798 376801
      372803 369804 367804 366807 364813 361816 358820 356826
      353826 348834 333838 332844 332851 329855 329859 341875
      355888 366887 374882 383886 388890 394892 398892 403895
      408894 412892 415896 420900 427897 431894 437892 449896
      449901 452902 456905 462912 466913 470912 475901 477897
      478891 482878 483870 482861 481840 479807 466754 464751
      464747 463741 467736 469731 472726 476721 480712 484705
      487699
 0.01 498062 499057 498053 496048 492043 490038 484029 479025
      476019 469013 460008 454008 451007 448005 439999 433990
      428992 424992 423996 421998 415998 417002 422006 427014
      433023 444026 449030 454032 462038 465039 467042 470046
      476048 479053 481060 484063 493064 498062
 0.01 441723 441721 440719 438717 436717 434718 433720 431723
      433725 435724 437724 439726 440724 441723
 0.25 473885 474877 472871 471866 469863 467860 467856 467858
      466866 465871 465878 467883 467890 469892 471890 473886
      473885
 0.25 465851 463846 461841 457838 454840 451844 448847 444851
      443854 441858 441861 443862 448862 452860 455857 459854
      463852 465851
 0.25 413715 414710 412706 408705 404705 396707 389712 384716
      382723 380731 381737 383740 386747 388752 388758 389763
      390768 394775 398781 402781 404779 407772 408767 408764
      406755 406749 407745 408736 409728 413715
 0.25 424862 422861 421860 420860 420863 421865 422865 424863
      424862
 0.25 419787 419783 417783 410787 406789 402788 399788 396791
      391796 387802 386805 389806 396805 403805 411803 416799
      419790 419787
 0.50 390732 390730 389730 390732 390732

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 519276 520270 519265 518255 511237 504221 501214 494210
      490210 486207 484204 481203 477212 475215 471217 469214
      465214 460219 458223 455227 450232 444237 439243 428255
      417264 412269 407277 408286 411293 418292 425288 436280
      444292 450291 456288 470282 476280 484280 498290 507293
      510293 513290
 0.01 516025 516017 514012 511006 508003 495987 481974 472969
      469966 466961 457956 452954 448954 445958 446963 452972
      459979 467985 469990 472994 475999 478003 475009 478014
      481017 489023 498023 505029 511030 513030 514027 516025
 0.01 476692 476686 474682 469683 466687 460690 453691 451694
      448693 447689 447686 447681 445676 440670 432667 425668
      415671 410673 407676 404682 386714 382720 377728 374731
      373736 375741 376744 380747 384747 391742 396737 402741
      404741 405744 405750 403755 404760 409767 410772 409777
      405780 399781 392785 386791 380791 380797 377800 369804
      359816 355823 354828 355835 354841 362836 364841 363845
      360850 360852 364852 367849 376853 383856 389861 407864
      418876 426877 435876 446876 449877 454877 457878 457882
      457889 456898 460903 462906 466908 472904 475897 480889
      483884 482883 481879 481875 480869 476860 465819 464815
      466812 470804 471798 471792 471788 469786 469781 466778
      464774 461770 457769 455766 455762 454749 454738 455732
      458727 462720 466710 469704 469699 476692
 0.01 442014 443009 443007 439006 436004 434004 431002 429001
      427999 425999 425002 427006 427009 429011 432012 435014
      437014 441014 442014
 0.01 383777 383772 382768 382764 381759 380757 378754 376755
      375758 375762 375767 376771 377776 378778 381780 383777
 0.25 511276 512270 513263 512255 511250 509246 505239 501233
      499232 497237 500245 503252 499258 502266 505274 508277
      511276
 0.25 457249 457247 455248 454248 453249 452250 451252 450252
      449254 450255 451255 452254 453253 454252 455251 456250
      457249
 0.25 422799 422796 421796 420797 419799 418801 418802 420804
      421801 422801 422799
 0.25 424865 422863 421863 421862 420863 420865 421865 422865
      424865
 0.25 392803 390802 388803 387803 385804 383806 382807 382808
      380809 379812 380813 382812 384811 385810 387809 388808
      389807 390806 390805 392803

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 080852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A LARGE
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WHICH STARTS OVER THE STATE OF MI AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. TJE UPPER
DYNAMICS HELP SPIN UP ANOTHER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.  A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM
THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH FOCUSES MOISTURE AND PCPN ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS A COMMON IDEA.  SO WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...WE WERE ABLE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY PLUS A GFS/ECMWF COMBO
WITH MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS THE GFS.  ON WED...DEEP COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 471622 474621 477625 483636 483642 484649 483664
      485683 486693 485700 477712 473718 466722 463723 461726
      458731 455747 455759 453763 454767 456775 469776 475777
      481781 486783 488791 492805 486816 484824 481829 479836
      481842 483850 486853 492865 494870 493878 490887 488894
      487904 486910 486917 486926 482930 479927 476927 474930
      459941 454944 451945 447945 440945 439939 438937 440933
      440928 441925 440922 438918 435916 429919 421926 417928
      412924 408923 405919 400916 396915 395917 396922 398926
      404931 407931 409933 411934 414938 417943 422949 421954
      417954 412954 407950 398944 392943 387940 384938 381934
      377930 373927 366918 362905 361894 361889 360885 359881
      358877 355872 352867 348871 343873 341871 339866 335861
      331859 329851 329848 330844 333837 337832 339826 337823
      334823 329827 312841 305846 300843 298839 296832 293827
      292822 293816 293811 293804 295796 297793 298789 297779
      296771 298766 304756 308747 314739 328715 335705 343696
      357678 372664 374662 378661 386661 389661 391664 395669
      407662 411659 415653 420644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 505016 500013 495012 473011
      469013 466011 458005 449005 445008 442012 452027 459033
      467038 472039 475041 478042 480044 483047 486053 489055
      493058 498060 501059 502052 505047 508045 511043 514043
      518043 520041 522036
 0.01 437842 436840 436837 435835 433836 431836 430836 428836
      426836 425839 426841 428840 428841 430842 432843 434844
      435844 437842
 0.01 421744 420742 418743 416742 415743 416745 417745 418747
      420747 421744
 0.01 374754 373749 372745 369741 366744 359748 353753 348758
      345764 342771 342775 346776 353772 358767 365762 370758
      373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244824 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 251809 252806
      254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 249053 252056 254063 256069 261076 263077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 464636 459637 456635 452635 449636
      442639 433647 418661 411671 403680 400684 394686 390689
      386689 384682 379679 376679 372681 367685 339718 334727
      329734 326740 324745 321758 320764 321769 323769 327766
      336760 345751 352743 357735 362723 364718 372717 378715
      381714 384715 390722 398728 404730 411729 422725 430720
      441712 441706 444698 446693 449689 456682 459677 460671
      463663 466658 469652 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 468814 466808 464804 458799 448798 443796 440791 436788
      432792 426798 422800 420801 417800 412797 409792 407792
      407789 407783 408778 407775 402771 400765 399758 396752
      391744 392740 391734 389734 387736 386742 385749 384756
      385763 385769 382778 382791 379797 376803 374807 370809
      363814 358821 351832 349836 348841 348844 351844 354844
      367831 373831 377829 385827 396827 400829 405834 409834
      412831 414826 417824 425817 426814 429814 433816 446824
      456829 461830 465827 467821 468814
 0.25 465866 464865 463866 464867 465866
 0.25 423862 422862 421862 420863 421863 422863 423862
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 439649 432658 425663 418671
      413678 407686 401694 398698 397704 398710 400713 403716
      408717 416717 422717 427713 433707 437697 445678 449670
      452665 456660 459654 460649
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457809 455810 454810
      453811 452812 452814 452816 454818 454819 456820 456821
      458821 460820 461817 461815
 0.50 413816 413813 410812 404811 398810 393808 392805 389804
      385809 380813 379816 381820 386821 392821 399822 404822
      409820 413816
 0.50 401779 400777 400776 398775 397775 396775 395774 394775
      395777 397779 399781 400779 401779
 0.50 379696 379691 377687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697
      368700 369705 372706 375703 377701 378698 379696
 0.50 363823 363822 363823 363824 363823 362825 361824 361825
362826 362825 355837 355835 354837 355837 355837 354839 353838
353839 354839 354839 358832 358830 357832 356832
      355835 357835 357834 358832
      358832 360827 360828 360827
 0.50 351735 348735 346735 346732 349725 348720 344718 340722
      335730 332735 331738 331744 331748 334752 337752 340750
      345745 349740 351735
 1.00 446656 446653 444653 443654 441656 440658 438660 438661
      437663 437664 437666 438667 439667 441665 442663 443661
      444661 445659 445658 446656
 1.00 434674 431673 428676 425677 421680 418688 414694 411701
      411704 413707 419709 423708 425705 427698 430690 432682
      434674

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 509288 509282 507277 505272 504265 504259 502254 498251
      494248 491244 486243 482243 476242 468242 460245 442249
      435249 430251 426254 427257 429258 432258 443258 462258
      466257 470259 480265 485268 487271 495279 501285 506289
      509288
 0.01 487699 486690 484684 480669 479665 476661 468658 459654
      454653 452657 449662 446667 441670 437674 429681 426682
      423682 418682 407685 403685 398686 387693 385697 381702
      376705 370707 369709 366709 360711 349715 345718 342722
      330735 327740 325745 320754 316767 314778 312783 315786
      320787 324784 330779 335771 347752 351748 354746 357746
      367748 371751 375756 372765 369773 366777 368781 369784
      372784 376783 379782 380785 383791 381797 379799 376801
      372803 369804 367804 366807 364813 361816 358821 356826
      353826 349832 344837 341838 340837 336834 333837 332843
      332850 331854 329855 329859 342876 349881 354888 363887
      367887 368886 373882 384886 388890 394892 398892 403895
      409894 413892 415896 420899 422900 424898 427898 435892
      441895 447895 450901 454904 458907 462912 466913 470912
      475900 478891 481880 483877 483873 482863 482846 479807
      477801 476794 474786 472780 466755 462742 468734 471727
      475722 480712 484705 487699
 0.01 498062 499057 498052 497048 492043 490038 476019 470013
      460008 453007 451007 448005 439999 433990 429992 424992
      423996 421998 415998 417002 420003 422006 427014 433023
      444026 454032 462038 465038 467042 470046 473046 476049
      478052 481059 484063 493064 498062
 0.01 441723 441721 440719 438717 436717 434718 433720 431723
      433725 435724 437724 439726 440724 441723
 0.25 473885 474877 472871 471866 469863 467860 467856 467858
      466866 465871 465878 467883 467890 469892 471890 473886
      473885
 0.25 465851 463846 461841 457838 454840 451844 448847 444851
      443854 441858 441861 443862 448862 452860 455857 459854
      463852 465851
 0.25 413715 413709 412706 408705 404705 397707 389712 385716
      382723 380731 381737 383740 386747 388752 388758 389763
      390767 394775 398781 401782 404779 407773 408768 408764
      406755 406749 407745 408736 409728 413715
 0.25 424862 422861 421860 420860 420863 421865 422865 424863
      424862
 0.25 419787 419783 417783 410787 406789 402788 399788 396791
      391796 387802 386805 389806 396805 403805 411803 416799
      419790 419787
 0.50 390732 390730 389730 390732 390732

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 519276 520270 519265 518255 511237 504221 501214 494210
      490210 486207 484204 481203 477212 475215 471217 469214
      465214 460219 458223 455227 450232 444237 439243 428255
      417264 412269 407277 408286 411293 418292 425288 436280
      444292 450291 456288 470282 476280 484280 498290 507293
      510293 513290
 0.01 516025 516017 514012 511006 508003 495987 481974 472969
      469966 466961 457956 452954 448954 445958 446963 452972
      459979 467985 469990 472994 475999 478003 475009 478014
      481017 489023 498023 505029 511030 513030 514027 516025
 0.01 476692 476686 474682 469683 466687 460690 453691 451694
      448693 447689 447686 447681 445676 440670 432667 425668
      415671 410673 407676 404682 386714 382720 377728 374731
      373736 375741 376744 380747 384747 391742 396737 402741
      404741 405744 405750 403755 404760 409767 410772 409777
      405780 399781 392785 386791 380791 380797 377800 369804
      359816 355823 354828 355835 354841 362836 364841 363845
      360850 360852 364852 367849 376853 383856 389861 407864
      418876 426877 435876 446876 449877 454877 457878 457882
      457889 456898 460903 462906 466908 472904 475897 480889
      483884 482883 481879 481875 480869 476860 465819 464815
      466812 470804 471798 471792 471788 469786 469781 466778
      464774 461770 457769 455766 455762 454749 454738 455732
      458727 462720 466710 469704 469699 476692
 0.01 442014 443009 443007 439006 436004 434004 431002 429001
      427999 425999 425002 427006 427009 429011 432012 435014
      437014 441014 442014
 0.01 383777 383772 382768 382764 381759 380757 378754 376755
      375758 375762 375767 376771 377776 378778 381780 383777
 0.25 511276 512270 513263 512255 511250 509246 505239 501233
      499232 497237 500245 503252 499258 502266 505274 508277
      511276
 0.25 457249 457247 455248 454248 453249 452250 451252 450252
      449254 450255 451255 452254 453253 454252 455251 456250
      457249
 0.25 422799 422796 421796 420797 419799 418801 418802 420804
      421801 422801 422799
 0.25 424865 422863 421863 421862 420863 420865 421865 422865
      424865
 0.25 392803 390802 388803 387803 385804 383806 382807 382808
      380809 379812 380813 382812 384811 385810 387809 388808
      389807 390806 390805 392803

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 080728
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 080728
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 080728
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

...VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 080624
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 471622 474621 477625 483636 483642 484649 483664
      485683 486693 485700 477712 473718 466722 463723 461726
      458731 455747 455759 453763 454767 456775 469776 475777
      481781 486783 488791 492805 486816 484824 481829 479836
      481842 483850 486853 492865 494870 493878 490887 488894
      487904 486910 486917 486926 482930 479927 476927 474930
      459941 454944 451945 447945 440945 439939 438937 440933
      440928 441925 440922 438918 435916 429919 421926 417928
      412924 408923 405919 400916 396915 395917 396922 398926
      404931 407931 409933 411934 414938 417943 422949 421954
      417954 412954 407950 398944 392943 387940 384938 381934
      377930 373927 366918 362905 361894 361889 360885 359881
      358877 355872 352867 348871 343873 341871 339866 335861
      331859 329851 329848 330844 333837 337832 339826 337823
      334823 329827 312841 305846 300843 298839 296832 293827
      292822 293816 293811 293804 295796 297793 298789 297779
      296771 298766 304756 308747 314739 328715 335705 343696
      357678 372664 374662 378661 386661 389661 391664 395669
      407662 411659 415653 420644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 505016 500013 495012 473011
      469013 466011 458005 449005 445008 442012 452027 459033
      467038 472039 475041 478042 480044 483047 486053 489055
      493058 498060 501059 502052 505047 508045 511043 514043
      518043 520041 522036
 0.01 437842 436840 436837 435835 433836 431836 430836 428836
      426836 425839 426841 428840 428841 430842 432843 434844
      435844 437842
 0.01 421744 420742 418743 416742 415743 416745 417745 418747
      420747 421744
 0.01 374754 373749 372745 369741 366744 359748 353753 348758
      345764 342771 342775 346776 353772 358767 365762 370758
      373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244824 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 251809 252806
      254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 249053 252056 254063 256069 261076 263077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 464636 459637 456635 452635 449636
      442639 433647 418661 411671 403680 400684 394686 390689
      386689 384682 379679 376679 372681 367685 339718 334727
      329734 326740 324745 321758 320764 321769 323769 327766
      336760 345751 352743 357735 362723 364718 372717 378715
      381714 384715 390722 398728 404730 411729 422725 430720
      441712 441706 444698 446693 449689 456682 459677 460671
      463663 466658 469652 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 468814 466808 464804 458799 448798 443796 440791 436788
      432792 426798 422800 420801 417800 412797 409792 407792
      407789 407783 408778 407775 402771 400765 399758 396752
      391744 392740 391734 389734 387736 386742 385749 384756
      385763 385769 382778 382791 379797 376803 374807 370809
      363814 358821 351832 349836 348841 348844 351844 354844
      367831 373831 377829 385827 396827 400829 405834 409834
      412831 414826 417824 425817 426814 429814 433816 446824
      456829 461830 465827 467821 468814
 0.25 465866 464865 463866 464867 465866
 0.25 423862 422862 421862 420863 421863 422863 423862
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 439649 432658 425663 418671
      413678 407686 401694 398698 397704 398710 400713 403716
      408717 416717 422717 427713 433707 437697 445678 449670
      452665 456660 459654 460649
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457809 455810 454810
      453811 452812 452814 452816 454818 454819 456820 456821
      458821 460820 461817 461815
 0.50 413816 413813 410812 404811 398810 393808 392805 389804
      385809 380813 379816 381820 386821 392821 399822 404822
      409820 413816
 0.50 401779 400777 400776 398775 397775 396775 395774 394775
      395777 397779 399781 400779 401779
 0.50 379696 379691 377687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697
      368700 369705 372706 375703 377701 378698 379696
 0.50 363823 363822 363823 363824 363823 362825 361824 361825
362826 362825 355837 355835 354837 355837 355837 354839 353838
353839 354839 354839 358832 358830 357832 356832
      355835 357835 357834 358832
      358832 360827 360828 360827
 0.50 351735 348735 346735 346732 349725 348720 344718 340722
      335730 332735 331738 331744 331748 334752 337752 340750
      345745 349740 351735
 1.00 446656 446653 444653 443654 441656 440658 438660 438661
      437663 437664 437666 438667 439667 441665 442663 443661
      444661 445659 445658 446656
 1.00 434674 431673 428676 425677 421680 418688 414694 411701
      411704 413707 419709 423708 425705 427698 430690 432682
      434674

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 080058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

...VALID 01Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ROTH
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 080058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

...VALID 01Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ROTH
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 080058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

...VALID 01Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ROTH
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 072139
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

RETRANSMITTED DUE TO DAY 2 CODING ERROR

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

OUTER BANKS OF NC
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WHIRL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS
ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY
BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND GFS...THE 18Z DAY 1 QPF ALSO
FOLLOWED IT AND THE 00Z DAY 1 QPF HELD SERVE.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC
VERSIONS OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN
BETTER WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.
 DAY 1 QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---
TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS
ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---WHILE A
SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAYS 2/3...

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

ROTH/ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 467624 469630 468636 465652 458681 455695 450710 447722
      442735 438738 432742 422740 416739 411742 404745 399749
      389757 384759 377761 373764 372767 375769 390766 395767
      402767 414769 425772 438774 451777 458776 464776 469773
      473770 476770 478767 484766 488767 491774 495778 498784
      501789 503796 508815 512831 516845 518853 518864 519887
      519894 518899 518902 515919 512934 509944 509949 507954
      505962 502965 497967 495970 491971 487972 480972 465972
      452971 439970 436969 433968 425968 423967 419966 416961
      411957 407952 403947 398945 395943 392943 387940 383937
      379931 375928 371925 368921 366918 366915 372913 374911
      378911 380906 377902 373898 367887 364882 359884 354886
      348884 345880 341873 341871 338869 332868 328868 325870
      321873 314872 312871 310867 310862 313856 316851 319845
      321831 323824 320821 317822 310833 307836 301835 294835
      294830 300821 308810 317804 325796 329790 331789 332785
      325784 319782 310778 305774 303766 302758 302752 304744
      306738 308732 316730 323721 326718 329716 329713 332708
      331705 328703 326703 325699 326693 329688 344672 361657
      393637 421640 450612 465616 467624
 0.01 536207 537199 536193 534184 532179 530175 527169 525171
      516168 511167 507168 506168 505171 506177 511183 516185
      518189 524195 527199 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519266 518258 513245 512239 508232 505229 499226
      495221 493214 489210 488208 485206 481208 481211 484212
      486215 486218 493220 497226 499232 501238 502246 506261
      512271 513274 512277 507274 502262 499256 495250 489248
      485251 486256 489263 490270 493277 496282 500287 506289
      511287 515281 518276
 0.25 474810 472803 466799 458798 451796 442797 433798 415801
      406802 396803 389803 386804 383807 376810 372811 368813
      358825 351839 353842 356841 360836 364829 366825 366820
      371823 368831 368836 372838 376838 379836 386834 384837
      381839 380842 383841 390837 397834 405830 412827 419824
      428822 437821 445822 453823 459826 464826 467824 471822
      473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466883 465890 463895
      461903 460908 461913 465916 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454651 452646 448642 446642 443643 435649 430652
      425654 416655 408649 404647 400647 390649 381652 371657
      364663 356669 342682 340687 339691 340694 343699 344703
      344709 340718 336726 332735 328744 323752 322763 324768
      327771 333772 336771 347768 366760 383751 400742 408735
      417730 423723 429716 439699 443690 447680 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 438672 436666 434664 428664 420664 414662 411661
      408657 402652 395651 385653 376657 369661 357672 352677
      347684 345688 346692 349700 349709 346719 344726 341734
      333748 330755 329759 330763 333766 338765 347763 364756
      380749 393740 406731 413725 418719 423713 428707 432699
      435691 437684 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419689 415681 408672 404666 399662 394659 388658
      380660 374664 365672 360677 356683 354689 354695 357703
      358710 353724 351730 348736 340746 338752 341758 343759
      347759 353756 366750 377743 382739 388735 396726 417708
      420703 421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408685 401678 398674 394671 386667 381667
      377669 370677 365685 365693 366701 364713 360722 355731
      349740 344748 346753 353752 363747 371743 378734 384725
      390717 400712 407705 410701 412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395689 391681 389677 385677 379682 374689
      371697 367714 364722 360729 351742 350746 352749 359746
      366742 372736 376729 380723 384714 388708 394703 397700
      399695 399695
 3.00 380700 380697 379698 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705
      376706 375708 376709 378708 378707 379705 380702 380700
      380700

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 072139
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

RETRANSMITTED DUE TO DAY 2 CODING ERROR

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

OUTER BANKS OF NC
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WHIRL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS
ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY
BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND GFS...THE 18Z DAY 1 QPF ALSO
FOLLOWED IT AND THE 00Z DAY 1 QPF HELD SERVE.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC
VERSIONS OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN
BETTER WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.
 DAY 1 QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---
TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS
ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---WHILE A
SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAYS 2/3...

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

ROTH/ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 467624 469630 468636 465652 458681 455695 450710 447722
      442735 438738 432742 422740 416739 411742 404745 399749
      389757 384759 377761 373764 372767 375769 390766 395767
      402767 414769 425772 438774 451777 458776 464776 469773
      473770 476770 478767 484766 488767 491774 495778 498784
      501789 503796 508815 512831 516845 518853 518864 519887
      519894 518899 518902 515919 512934 509944 509949 507954
      505962 502965 497967 495970 491971 487972 480972 465972
      452971 439970 436969 433968 425968 423967 419966 416961
      411957 407952 403947 398945 395943 392943 387940 383937
      379931 375928 371925 368921 366918 366915 372913 374911
      378911 380906 377902 373898 367887 364882 359884 354886
      348884 345880 341873 341871 338869 332868 328868 325870
      321873 314872 312871 310867 310862 313856 316851 319845
      321831 323824 320821 317822 310833 307836 301835 294835
      294830 300821 308810 317804 325796 329790 331789 332785
      325784 319782 310778 305774 303766 302758 302752 304744
      306738 308732 316730 323721 326718 329716 329713 332708
      331705 328703 326703 325699 326693 329688 344672 361657
      393637 421640 450612 465616 467624
 0.01 536207 537199 536193 534184 532179 530175 527169 525171
      516168 511167 507168 506168 505171 506177 511183 516185
      518189 524195 527199 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519266 518258 513245 512239 508232 505229 499226
      495221 493214 489210 488208 485206 481208 481211 484212
      486215 486218 493220 497226 499232 501238 502246 506261
      512271 513274 512277 507274 502262 499256 495250 489248
      485251 486256 489263 490270 493277 496282 500287 506289
      511287 515281 518276
 0.25 474810 472803 466799 458798 451796 442797 433798 415801
      406802 396803 389803 386804 383807 376810 372811 368813
      358825 351839 353842 356841 360836 364829 366825 366820
      371823 368831 368836 372838 376838 379836 386834 384837
      381839 380842 383841 390837 397834 405830 412827 419824
      428822 437821 445822 453823 459826 464826 467824 471822
      473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466883 465890 463895
      461903 460908 461913 465916 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454651 452646 448642 446642 443643 435649 430652
      425654 416655 408649 404647 400647 390649 381652 371657
      364663 356669 342682 340687 339691 340694 343699 344703
      344709 340718 336726 332735 328744 323752 322763 324768
      327771 333772 336771 347768 366760 383751 400742 408735
      417730 423723 429716 439699 443690 447680 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 438672 436666 434664 428664 420664 414662 411661
      408657 402652 395651 385653 376657 369661 357672 352677
      347684 345688 346692 349700 349709 346719 344726 341734
      333748 330755 329759 330763 333766 338765 347763 364756
      380749 393740 406731 413725 418719 423713 428707 432699
      435691 437684 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419689 415681 408672 404666 399662 394659 388658
      380660 374664 365672 360677 356683 354689 354695 357703
      358710 353724 351730 348736 340746 338752 341758 343759
      347759 353756 366750 377743 382739 388735 396726 417708
      420703 421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408685 401678 398674 394671 386667 381667
      377669 370677 365685 365693 366701 364713 360722 355731
      349740 344748 346753 353752 363747 371743 378734 384725
      390717 400712 407705 410701 412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395689 391681 389677 385677 379682 374689
      371697 367714 364722 360729 351742 350746 352749 359746
      366742 372736 376729 380723 384714 388708 394703 397700
      399695 399695
 3.00 380700 380697 379698 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705
      376706 375708 376709 378708 378707 379705 380702 380700
      380700

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 072139
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

RETRANSMITTED DUE TO DAY 2 CODING ERROR

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

OUTER BANKS OF NC
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WHIRL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS
ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY
BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND GFS...THE 18Z DAY 1 QPF ALSO
FOLLOWED IT AND THE 00Z DAY 1 QPF HELD SERVE.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC
VERSIONS OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN
BETTER WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.
 DAY 1 QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---
TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS
ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---WHILE A
SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAYS 2/3...

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

ROTH/ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 467624 469630 468636 465652 458681 455695 450710 447722
      442735 438738 432742 422740 416739 411742 404745 399749
      389757 384759 377761 373764 372767 375769 390766 395767
      402767 414769 425772 438774 451777 458776 464776 469773
      473770 476770 478767 484766 488767 491774 495778 498784
      501789 503796 508815 512831 516845 518853 518864 519887
      519894 518899 518902 515919 512934 509944 509949 507954
      505962 502965 497967 495970 491971 487972 480972 465972
      452971 439970 436969 433968 425968 423967 419966 416961
      411957 407952 403947 398945 395943 392943 387940 383937
      379931 375928 371925 368921 366918 366915 372913 374911
      378911 380906 377902 373898 367887 364882 359884 354886
      348884 345880 341873 341871 338869 332868 328868 325870
      321873 314872 312871 310867 310862 313856 316851 319845
      321831 323824 320821 317822 310833 307836 301835 294835
      294830 300821 308810 317804 325796 329790 331789 332785
      325784 319782 310778 305774 303766 302758 302752 304744
      306738 308732 316730 323721 326718 329716 329713 332708
      331705 328703 326703 325699 326693 329688 344672 361657
      393637 421640 450612 465616 467624
 0.01 536207 537199 536193 534184 532179 530175 527169 525171
      516168 511167 507168 506168 505171 506177 511183 516185
      518189 524195 527199 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519266 518258 513245 512239 508232 505229 499226
      495221 493214 489210 488208 485206 481208 481211 484212
      486215 486218 493220 497226 499232 501238 502246 506261
      512271 513274 512277 507274 502262 499256 495250 489248
      485251 486256 489263 490270 493277 496282 500287 506289
      511287 515281 518276
 0.25 474810 472803 466799 458798 451796 442797 433798 415801
      406802 396803 389803 386804 383807 376810 372811 368813
      358825 351839 353842 356841 360836 364829 366825 366820
      371823 368831 368836 372838 376838 379836 386834 384837
      381839 380842 383841 390837 397834 405830 412827 419824
      428822 437821 445822 453823 459826 464826 467824 471822
      473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466883 465890 463895
      461903 460908 461913 465916 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454651 452646 448642 446642 443643 435649 430652
      425654 416655 408649 404647 400647 390649 381652 371657
      364663 356669 342682 340687 339691 340694 343699 344703
      344709 340718 336726 332735 328744 323752 322763 324768
      327771 333772 336771 347768 366760 383751 400742 408735
      417730 423723 429716 439699 443690 447680 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 438672 436666 434664 428664 420664 414662 411661
      408657 402652 395651 385653 376657 369661 357672 352677
      347684 345688 346692 349700 349709 346719 344726 341734
      333748 330755 329759 330763 333766 338765 347763 364756
      380749 393740 406731 413725 418719 423713 428707 432699
      435691 437684 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419689 415681 408672 404666 399662 394659 388658
      380660 374664 365672 360677 356683 354689 354695 357703
      358710 353724 351730 348736 340746 338752 341758 343759
      347759 353756 366750 377743 382739 388735 396726 417708
      420703 421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408685 401678 398674 394671 386667 381667
      377669 370677 365685 365693 366701 364713 360722 355731
      349740 344748 346753 353752 363747 371743 378734 384725
      390717 400712 407705 410701 412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395689 391681 389677 385677 379682 374689
      371697 367714 364722 360729 351742 350746 352749 359746
      366742 372736 376729 380723 384714 388708 394703 397700
      399695 399695
 3.00 380700 380697 379698 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705
      376706 375708 376709 378708 378707 379705 380702 380700
      380700

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$




000
FOUS11 KWBC 072111
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 11 2016

NEW ENGLAND...

LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AUTOMATED
PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGES TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE MORE PREFERRED SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE THAT IS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF
ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLES...
WITH MOST OF THE SREF MEMBERS CONSIDERED TOO FAR WEST AND
THEREFORE HEAVY WITH THEIR SNOW TOO FAR INLAND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GREAT LAKES...

MODELS MORE SO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDE THE
NAM AND SREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SNOW EVENT EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW TOO
MUCH WEAKENING IN ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS PERHAPS DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THUS...THE DETERMINISTIC SNOW TOTALS AND RESULTING PROBABILITIES
WERE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. APPRECIATION GOES
OUT TO THE GRAND RAPIDS WFO FOR PROVIDING FURTHER INSIGHT INTO THE
EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...

A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL STRONGLY PREFERRED FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS APPROACH
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS LIKELY TOO COLD BELOW 700 MB. THE RESULTING
PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED
AND INITIALLY WEIGHTED ABOUT 50 PERCENT TOWARD THE SREF MEMBERS
WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS AND ANTICIPATED WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR THE AXIS TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW JERSEY WITHIN A TROWEL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

JAMES


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 072105
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 11 2016

NEW ENGLAND...

LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AUTOMATED
PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGES TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE MORE PREFERRED SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE THAT IS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF
ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLES...
WITH MOST OF THE SREF MEMBERS CONSIDERED TOO FAR WEST AND
THEREFORE HEAVY WITH THEIR SNOW TOO FAR INLAND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GREAT LAKES...

MODELS MORE SO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDE THE
NAM AND SREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SNOW EVENT EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW TOO
MUCH WEAKENING IN ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS PERHAPS DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THUS...THE DETERMINISTIC SNOW TOTALS AND RESULTING PROBABILITIES
WERE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. APPRECIATION GOES
OUT TO THE GRAND RAPIDS WFO FOR PROVIDING FURTHER INSIGHT INTO THE
EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...

A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL STRONGLY PREFERRED FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS APPROACH
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS LIKELY TOO COLD BELOW 700 MB. THE RESULTING
PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED
AND INITIALLY WEIGHTED ABOUT 50 PERCENT TOWARD THE SREF MEMBERS
WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS AND ANTICIPATED WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR THE AXIS TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW JERSEY WITHIN A TROWEL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

JAMES


$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 072105
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z THU FEB 11 2016

NEW ENGLAND...

LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE AUTOMATED
PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN EDGES TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE MORE PREFERRED SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE THAT IS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00-12Z ECMWF
ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLES...
WITH MOST OF THE SREF MEMBERS CONSIDERED TOO FAR WEST AND
THEREFORE HEAVY WITH THEIR SNOW TOO FAR INLAND.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

GREAT LAKES...

MODELS MORE SO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDE THE
NAM AND SREF MEMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SNOW EVENT EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO SHOW TOO
MUCH WEAKENING IN ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS PERHAPS DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THUS...THE DETERMINISTIC SNOW TOTALS AND RESULTING PROBABILITIES
WERE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. APPRECIATION GOES
OUT TO THE GRAND RAPIDS WFO FOR PROVIDING FURTHER INSIGHT INTO THE
EVENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...

A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL STRONGLY PREFERRED FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS APPROACH
ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS LIKELY TOO COLD BELOW 700 MB. THE RESULTING
PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW AUTOMATICALLY GENERATED
AND INITIALLY WEIGHTED ABOUT 50 PERCENT TOWARD THE SREF MEMBERS
WERE TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS AND ANTICIPATED WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR THE AXIS TO EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW JERSEY WITHIN A TROWEL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

JAMES


$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 072058
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

OUTER BANKS OF NC
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WHIRL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE
NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS
ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY
BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION
OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND GFS...THE 18Z DAY 1 QPF ALSO
FOLLOWED IT AND THE 00Z DAY 1 QPF HELD SERVE.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC
VERSIONS OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN
BETTER WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.
 DAY 1 QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING
DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---
TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS
ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES---WHILE A
SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAYS 2/3...

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ROTH/ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 467624 469630 468636 465652 458681 455695 450710 447722
      442735 438738 432742 422740 416739 411742 404745 399749
      389757 384759 377761 373764 372767 375769 390766 395767
      402767 414769 425772 438774 451777 458776 464776 469773
      473770 476770 478767 484766 488767 491774 495778 498784
      501789 503796 508815 512831 516845 518853 518864 519887
      519894 518899 518902 515919 512934 509944 509949 507954
      505962 502965 497967 495970 491971 487972 480972 465972
      452971 439970 436969 433968 425968 423967 419966 416961
      411957 407952 403947 398945 395943 392943 387940 383937
      379931 375928 371925 368921 366918 366915 372913 374911
      378911 380906 377902 373898 367887 364882 359884 354886
      348884 345880 341873 341871 338869 332868 328868 325870
      321873 314872 312871 310867 310862 313856 316851 319845
      321831 323824 320821 317822 310833 307836 301835 294835
      294830 300821 308810 317804 325796 329790 331789 332785
      325784 319782 310778 305774 303766 302758 302752 304744
      306738 308732 316730 323721 326718 329716 329713 332708
      331705 328703 326703 325699 326693 329688 344672 361657
      393637 421640 450612 465616 467624
 0.01 536207 537199 536193 534184 532179 530175 527169 525171
      516168 511167 507168 506168 505171 506177 511183 516185
      518189 524195 527199 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519266 518258 513245 512239 508232 505229 499226
      495221 493214 489210 488208 485206 481208 481211 484212
      486215 486218 493220 497226 499232 501238 502246 506261
      512271 513274 512277 507274 502262 499256 495250 489248
      485251 486256 489263 490270 493277 496282 500287 506289
      511287 515281 518276
 0.25 474810 472803 466799 458798 451796 442797 433798 415801
      406802 396803 389803 386804 383807 376810 372811 368813
      358825 351839 353842 356841 360836 364829 366825 366820
      371823 368831 368836 372838 376838 379836 386834 384837
      381839 380842 383841 390837 397834 405830 412827 419824
      428822 437821 445822 453823 459826 464826 467824 471822
      473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466883 465890 463895
      461903 460908 461913 465916 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454651 452646 448642 446642 443643 435649 430652
      425654 416655 408649 404647 400647 390649 381652 371657
      364663 356669 342682 340687 339691 340694 343699 344703
      344709 340718 336726 332735 328744 323752 322763 324768
      327771 333772 336771 347768 366760 383751 400742 408735
      417730 423723 429716 439699 443690 447680 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 438672 436666 434664 428664 420664 414662 411661
      408657 402652 395651 385653 376657 369661 357672 352677
      347684 345688 346692 349700 349709 346719 344726 341734
      333748 330755 329759 330763 333766 338765 347763 364756
      380749 393740 406731 413725 418719 423713 428707 432699
      435691 437684 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419689 415681 408672 404666 399662 394659 388658
      380660 374664 365672 360677 356683 354689 354695 357703
      358710 353724 351730 348736 340746 338752 341758 343759
      347759 353756 366750 377743 382739 388735 396726 417708
      420703 421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408685 401678 398674 394671 386667 381667
      377669 370677 365685 365693 366701 364713 360722 355731
      349740 344748 346753 353752 363747 371743 378734 384725
      390717 400712 407705 410701 412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395689 391681 389677 385677 379682 374689
      371697 367714 364722 360729 351742 350746 352749 359746
      366742 372736 376729 380723 384714 388708 394703 397700
      399695 399695
 3.00 380700 380697 379698 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705
      376706 375708 376709 378708 378707 379705 380702 380700
      380700

24HR QP VT 10/00Z



24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 072043
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 071900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 071344
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
844 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

...VALID 15Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 071000
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE TIME THE DAY 2 PERIOD
BEGINS ON MONDAY MORNING... WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS DIG
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. A LARGE CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH HELPS PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...WHILE A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION.
THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A .25 INCH OR GREATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN
UP OF MI. THE UPPER DYNAMICS THEN REACH THE MID-ATL COAST WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROCEED AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP
FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... WITH
THE RANGE OF SOLNS STILL HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING
UP FROM ANYWHERE FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS
NYC/NJ/NERN PA BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING INDUCE A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY. BY THE TIME EARLY MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP
LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL
COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE OF THE LARGE PRECIP
SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA
THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH
POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING
OR THROUGH OCEAN EFFECT PROCESSES.  SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK SINCE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
BE FALLING AS SNOW.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 420641 424644 430651 437665 438669 436676 434689
      430699 429705 426712 421721 408738 405743 401747 393755
      388758 382760 378762 375767 370777 364787 361792 357795
      349802 339809 328814 323814 318814 308812 298807 291799
      284791 281788 277786 272784 265783 258783 252784 246784
      242781 243778 245774 250764 257754 264747 271741 290728
      298721 305715 322700 327692 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 537183 536182 533176 529171 527169 525170
      521167 516167 510167 504167 501167 501169 502176 507188
      511192 516198 518203 519206 519212 522216 523219 526220
      530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518260 517255 511237 507230 505228
      501227 497224 495220 492212 486207 483206 480207 471208
      465211 464219 470218 478217 483218 486220 491221 494223
      497226 500235 502243 480228 472226 466229 465233 466239
      464242 459242 455246 450252 447255 444259 446265 453269
      461271 471274 475275 478275 487277 490279 492282 502287
      505289 509288 514283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516952 516943 514937 514929 512925 512918 509907
      504880 503873 503862 505847 504834 501822 498812 494802
      489794 487789 483785 480781 477779 472775 468774 463772
      460770 456771 454776 455783 452784 448782 444782 406800
      389808 381813 373817 366823 359833 357837 357844 356849
      354852 352857 355861 362865 364868 364872 368880 371884
      374884 377880 379878 382877 391873 396871 398869 402869
      409864 415863 418864 419867 420871 423872 428864 429859
      430856 433854 435854 438856 440859 444862 446863 448867
      449876 450882 448887 444889 443892 439892 434892 430890
      426890 418886 413884 409884 407882 403882 397883 390888
      385897 381905 380911 380917 380923 382927 386929 388932
      402945 414961 421969 426977 437988 445993 456998 461998
      465996 470996 473998 473001 475012 481021 486027 493027
      498020 503008 507997 510983 514970 517957
 0.01 496655 495649 492644 488642 484641 478642 475645 469654
      464664 462669 460676 458686 454698 450708 449721 446727
      445732 445740 446744 448744 456723 459712 464703 470695
      479686 485679 492669 494667 496663 495657 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503273 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489867 489859 487854 483847 479837 475828 472816
      470811 467809 460804 452802 443802 438803 436806 435809
      437812 442812 445812 449814 454815 456818 460821 462826
      463832 463839 465850 472856 477863 481872 485882 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418665 416659 414655 410651 406648 401647 395647
      390649 377654 369659 359667 351674 342681 336688 329698
      321706 306720 300728 295739 289748 284756 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 285775 290778 294789 298794 302798
      311803 320805 327804 333802 343796 352789 355786 358781
      368760 397728 404719 409711 414698 417686 419673
 0.50 413675 412668 410661 405653 402651 396650 385653 375657
      368662 360669 353676 340688 327703 315716 309724 307728
      306733 301742 297749 294752 292758 294763 299763 301765
      300769 297779 298785 300791 306796 315800 324801 330800
      336797 344792 350786 354779 364760 374746 388731 399717
      404708 408698 411687 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 398661 390658 386657 381659 368669
      362675 355681 342691 336697 330704 321716 317724 315734
      313742 313747 314753 314759 313765 309771 305779 304783
      306786 313792 321795 329795 337793 341790 344786 348778
      351771 355764 365749 370743 375738 381730 386724 390716
      394709 401692 403686 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 391668 387666 383665 377668 355688
      344698 340698 336701 332707 325719 322727 321736 321745
      322754 320763 316769 312775 311778 311782 313787 316789
      322791 331791 338788 342781 346774 352762 360749 369739
      373733 378725 391699 395690 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 382678 375682 369686 360694 354699 352705
      348706 345705 340704 338706 336710 333715 329721 327726
      326735 326740 328744 331751 330756 327762 323767 318771
      315776 314780 316785 322788 330787 336784 340778 342772
      345766 348761 356750 372729 378717 384703 388694 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 357729 353735 344744 341749 338755 335761
      330766 321774 319779 322781 327779 332777 337772 344761
      347756 351751 359741 362735 363729
 3.00 337729 337728 336727 335727 334728 334730 334732 336733
      336732 337730 337729
 4.00 331770 334769 336766 336765 335765 333767 331770 331770

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 459624 460634 463640 469659 467677 467685 464690 451713
      442723 431730 429731 427735 425744 424748 426753 430757
      433760 436761 440765 444771 450772 461775 471777 476779
      480783 486788 488789 489795 490798 491804 494813 500829
      503835 504839 505843 505854 504859 504864 504871 501878
      495889 492895 487899 486910 487919 487925 489929 487937
      483943 477945 466937 461941 456943 442947 439943 438935
      441930 439925 440920 438916 431916 422924 417928 412924
      409924 407922 401917 399915 396915 395916 394919 396922
      399927 404930 412935 420947 422950 421954 414956 403948
      391942 384938 380934 377929 371925 366918 367914 370913
      375911 378911 382909 380904 378902 372898 369891 362880
      357874 351871 345869 343867 339869 334869 330868 326868
      321872 315873 312871 311868 310863 313858 315852 318848
      321840 323824 320821 317823 313829 309834 307836 303836
      300835 296835 292835 294832 296826 299821 303817 298814
      291812 284810 282809 283807 282798 283782 291771 307751
      321731 335712 351689 368670 373666 380664 387663 390669
      392671 395670 401666 408662 411661 413656 417638
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528033 524028 516021 508014 504013
      503011 496010 494011 494016 494020 496023 496026 499029
      502032 507035 512040 520046 525049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 455920 455918 455915 453914 452913 450916 452918 452920
      454923 455920
 0.01 351769 349767 347766 346767 345768 344770 344771 343772
      342773 341775 343777 344776 346774 348772 348771 349771
      351769
 0.01 287837 286835 286833 285831 284829 284828 282827 282825
      281825 280825 278825 277826 277828 278830 278832 278834
      280836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 285839 286838
      287837
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 252802 248802 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 478872 476870 474869 471868 469867 467868 467873 468875
      469880 470883 471886 473889 475887 476883 477880 477875
      478872
 0.25 474808 475801 474795 469790 461792 456791 449790 443786
      436785 431791 430795 431797 425801 421803 419806 424808
      438809 443809 446810 449816 453824 458829 463834 465834
      467830 471823 473815 474808
 0.25 454656 452649 450645 448643 445639 441637 435636 432640
      427649 421660 414669 407677 402680 397682 394684 391683
      386682 381679 376679 367685 360693 344710 338717 331726
      325736 320745 315754 310764 306776 305782 306786 310789
      315787 323780 337764 351749 360740 369734 376732 381729
      382726 385724 388721 395720 401720 405722 410722 417721
      426715 435706 441697 445687 450677 452671 453666 454656
 0.25 417809 413803 412797 409794 405792 405785 403780 401775
      398772 393770 388768 386769 386773 389778 392784 392788
      389792 385795 377802 371810 366813 364816 358824 353833
      351838 354843 361835 364831 366830 367831 372829 376826
      386822 397819 407816 417809
 0.50 466809 466804 465801 463800 460800 458800 455803 454806
      454811 455816 456819 458820 460819 463817 464814 465812
      466809
 0.50 441665 441657 439651 437648 434646 430653 426661 422669
      418676 416679 412681 403685 397689 390693 385696 383699
      383704 386706 390707 393705 400701 410699 414698 415703
      416706 419707 422704 426696 430688 435683 439675 441666
      441665
 0.50 377705 378698 374695 369696 357707 349712 342716 338723
      333730 329736 326743 323751 322760 324764 328764 334760
      345749 356738 361731 365724 369716 373710 377705
 1.00 342737 341736 340736 338738 336740 335742 335743 334745
      333745 334746 335745 337745 339743 339742 340741 341740
      342738 342737

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 518083 514074 509067 502062 495056 490050 488054 488060
      489064 492067 496069 499072 505080 511087 514089 516088
      517085 518083
 0.01 521025 521015 519009 516005 510001 505998 501997 489995
      482994 478996 473997 467000 463003 459003 448997 445995
      441998 438001 435001 429998 425998 425001 426007 427011
      429013 433018 437021 443023 448025 456026 461029 464032
      472042 474045 477046 480046 482044 485042 489043 490045
      493046 497047 498049 504050 510051 516049 519049 518043
      516039 516034 518032 521025
 0.01 483692 482684 480678 479671 480664 478660 476657 469651
      466649 464654 463660 460664 456664 455663 450664 442674
      437683 432690 429692 427690 426683 424670 423663 421658
      417657 412657 392669 390682 385690 379696 374703 366709
      358711 353715 348716 345719 342723 338727 327741 324750
      323754 321758 317767 316774 317783 320785 326785 330782
      334779 340772 347765 353759 355759 358763 365772 370781
      374783 376786 375789 372799 370805 367809 360815 355821
      353830 345838 339840 338845 340856 344860 346864 351870
      355874 360874 364876 368876 371873 375875 398874 410877
      418882 441880 451879 453879 456882 456888 456892 455896
      456901 463910 465913 469910 474902 480894 486886 491867
      493853 493848 492845 491841 483814 477786 472764 474750
      476740 478724 478719 479716 479709 483692
 0.01 456010 456008 455006 454005 454003 453000 451001 450003
      449005 448006 446006 444005 443007 444008 445010 446010
      448011 448012 449013 451013 453014 454013 454012 456010
 0.25 401718 400708 397702 393706 388712 385718 384725 382731
      382736 384741 396769 398777 399782 396789 394792 391794
      385799 382803 379809 373815 369819 364821 362825 367831
      370832 374832 377827 381811 399793 403788 402782 404764
      401750 400743 401732 401718

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 071000
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE TIME THE DAY 2 PERIOD
BEGINS ON MONDAY MORNING... WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS DIG
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. A LARGE CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH HELPS PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...WHILE A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION.
THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A .25 INCH OR GREATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN
UP OF MI. THE UPPER DYNAMICS THEN REACH THE MID-ATL COAST WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROCEED AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP
FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... WITH
THE RANGE OF SOLNS STILL HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING
UP FROM ANYWHERE FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS
NYC/NJ/NERN PA BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING INDUCE A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY. BY THE TIME EARLY MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP
LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL
COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE OF THE LARGE PRECIP
SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA
THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH
POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING
OR THROUGH OCEAN EFFECT PROCESSES.  SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK SINCE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
BE FALLING AS SNOW.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 420641 424644 430651 437665 438669 436676 434689
      430699 429705 426712 421721 408738 405743 401747 393755
      388758 382760 378762 375767 370777 364787 361792 357795
      349802 339809 328814 323814 318814 308812 298807 291799
      284791 281788 277786 272784 265783 258783 252784 246784
      242781 243778 245774 250764 257754 264747 271741 290728
      298721 305715 322700 327692 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 537183 536182 533176 529171 527169 525170
      521167 516167 510167 504167 501167 501169 502176 507188
      511192 516198 518203 519206 519212 522216 523219 526220
      530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518260 517255 511237 507230 505228
      501227 497224 495220 492212 486207 483206 480207 471208
      465211 464219 470218 478217 483218 486220 491221 494223
      497226 500235 502243 480228 472226 466229 465233 466239
      464242 459242 455246 450252 447255 444259 446265 453269
      461271 471274 475275 478275 487277 490279 492282 502287
      505289 509288 514283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516952 516943 514937 514929 512925 512918 509907
      504880 503873 503862 505847 504834 501822 498812 494802
      489794 487789 483785 480781 477779 472775 468774 463772
      460770 456771 454776 455783 452784 448782 444782 406800
      389808 381813 373817 366823 359833 357837 357844 356849
      354852 352857 355861 362865 364868 364872 368880 371884
      374884 377880 379878 382877 391873 396871 398869 402869
      409864 415863 418864 419867 420871 423872 428864 429859
      430856 433854 435854 438856 440859 444862 446863 448867
      449876 450882 448887 444889 443892 439892 434892 430890
      426890 418886 413884 409884 407882 403882 397883 390888
      385897 381905 380911 380917 380923 382927 386929 388932
      402945 414961 421969 426977 437988 445993 456998 461998
      465996 470996 473998 473001 475012 481021 486027 493027
      498020 503008 507997 510983 514970 517957
 0.01 496655 495649 492644 488642 484641 478642 475645 469654
      464664 462669 460676 458686 454698 450708 449721 446727
      445732 445740 446744 448744 456723 459712 464703 470695
      479686 485679 492669 494667 496663 495657 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503273 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489867 489859 487854 483847 479837 475828 472816
      470811 467809 460804 452802 443802 438803 436806 435809
      437812 442812 445812 449814 454815 456818 460821 462826
      463832 463839 465850 472856 477863 481872 485882 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418665 416659 414655 410651 406648 401647 395647
      390649 377654 369659 359667 351674 342681 336688 329698
      321706 306720 300728 295739 289748 284756 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 285775 290778 294789 298794 302798
      311803 320805 327804 333802 343796 352789 355786 358781
      368760 397728 404719 409711 414698 417686 419673
 0.50 413675 412668 410661 405653 402651 396650 385653 375657
      368662 360669 353676 340688 327703 315716 309724 307728
      306733 301742 297749 294752 292758 294763 299763 301765
      300769 297779 298785 300791 306796 315800 324801 330800
      336797 344792 350786 354779 364760 374746 388731 399717
      404708 408698 411687 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 398661 390658 386657 381659 368669
      362675 355681 342691 336697 330704 321716 317724 315734
      313742 313747 314753 314759 313765 309771 305779 304783
      306786 313792 321795 329795 337793 341790 344786 348778
      351771 355764 365749 370743 375738 381730 386724 390716
      394709 401692 403686 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 391668 387666 383665 377668 355688
      344698 340698 336701 332707 325719 322727 321736 321745
      322754 320763 316769 312775 311778 311782 313787 316789
      322791 331791 338788 342781 346774 352762 360749 369739
      373733 378725 391699 395690 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 382678 375682 369686 360694 354699 352705
      348706 345705 340704 338706 336710 333715 329721 327726
      326735 326740 328744 331751 330756 327762 323767 318771
      315776 314780 316785 322788 330787 336784 340778 342772
      345766 348761 356750 372729 378717 384703 388694 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 357729 353735 344744 341749 338755 335761
      330766 321774 319779 322781 327779 332777 337772 344761
      347756 351751 359741 362735 363729
 3.00 337729 337728 336727 335727 334728 334730 334732 336733
      336732 337730 337729
 4.00 331770 334769 336766 336765 335765 333767 331770 331770

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 459624 460634 463640 469659 467677 467685 464690 451713
      442723 431730 429731 427735 425744 424748 426753 430757
      433760 436761 440765 444771 450772 461775 471777 476779
      480783 486788 488789 489795 490798 491804 494813 500829
      503835 504839 505843 505854 504859 504864 504871 501878
      495889 492895 487899 486910 487919 487925 489929 487937
      483943 477945 466937 461941 456943 442947 439943 438935
      441930 439925 440920 438916 431916 422924 417928 412924
      409924 407922 401917 399915 396915 395916 394919 396922
      399927 404930 412935 420947 422950 421954 414956 403948
      391942 384938 380934 377929 371925 366918 367914 370913
      375911 378911 382909 380904 378902 372898 369891 362880
      357874 351871 345869 343867 339869 334869 330868 326868
      321872 315873 312871 311868 310863 313858 315852 318848
      321840 323824 320821 317823 313829 309834 307836 303836
      300835 296835 292835 294832 296826 299821 303817 298814
      291812 284810 282809 283807 282798 283782 291771 307751
      321731 335712 351689 368670 373666 380664 387663 390669
      392671 395670 401666 408662 411661 413656 417638
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528033 524028 516021 508014 504013
      503011 496010 494011 494016 494020 496023 496026 499029
      502032 507035 512040 520046 525049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 455920 455918 455915 453914 452913 450916 452918 452920
      454923 455920
 0.01 351769 349767 347766 346767 345768 344770 344771 343772
      342773 341775 343777 344776 346774 348772 348771 349771
      351769
 0.01 287837 286835 286833 285831 284829 284828 282827 282825
      281825 280825 278825 277826 277828 278830 278832 278834
      280836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 285839 286838
      287837
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 252802 248802 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 478872 476870 474869 471868 469867 467868 467873 468875
      469880 470883 471886 473889 475887 476883 477880 477875
      478872
 0.25 474808 475801 474795 469790 461792 456791 449790 443786
      436785 431791 430795 431797 425801 421803 419806 424808
      438809 443809 446810 449816 453824 458829 463834 465834
      467830 471823 473815 474808
 0.25 454656 452649 450645 448643 445639 441637 435636 432640
      427649 421660 414669 407677 402680 397682 394684 391683
      386682 381679 376679 367685 360693 344710 338717 331726
      325736 320745 315754 310764 306776 305782 306786 310789
      315787 323780 337764 351749 360740 369734 376732 381729
      382726 385724 388721 395720 401720 405722 410722 417721
      426715 435706 441697 445687 450677 452671 453666 454656
 0.25 417809 413803 412797 409794 405792 405785 403780 401775
      398772 393770 388768 386769 386773 389778 392784 392788
      389792 385795 377802 371810 366813 364816 358824 353833
      351838 354843 361835 364831 366830 367831 372829 376826
      386822 397819 407816 417809
 0.50 466809 466804 465801 463800 460800 458800 455803 454806
      454811 455816 456819 458820 460819 463817 464814 465812
      466809
 0.50 441665 441657 439651 437648 434646 430653 426661 422669
      418676 416679 412681 403685 397689 390693 385696 383699
      383704 386706 390707 393705 400701 410699 414698 415703
      416706 419707 422704 426696 430688 435683 439675 441666
      441665
 0.50 377705 378698 374695 369696 357707 349712 342716 338723
      333730 329736 326743 323751 322760 324764 328764 334760
      345749 356738 361731 365724 369716 373710 377705
 1.00 342737 341736 340736 338738 336740 335742 335743 334745
      333745 334746 335745 337745 339743 339742 340741 341740
      342738 342737

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 518083 514074 509067 502062 495056 490050 488054 488060
      489064 492067 496069 499072 505080 511087 514089 516088
      517085 518083
 0.01 521025 521015 519009 516005 510001 505998 501997 489995
      482994 478996 473997 467000 463003 459003 448997 445995
      441998 438001 435001 429998 425998 425001 426007 427011
      429013 433018 437021 443023 448025 456026 461029 464032
      472042 474045 477046 480046 482044 485042 489043 490045
      493046 497047 498049 504050 510051 516049 519049 518043
      516039 516034 518032 521025
 0.01 483692 482684 480678 479671 480664 478660 476657 469651
      466649 464654 463660 460664 456664 455663 450664 442674
      437683 432690 429692 427690 426683 424670 423663 421658
      417657 412657 392669 390682 385690 379696 374703 366709
      358711 353715 348716 345719 342723 338727 327741 324750
      323754 321758 317767 316774 317783 320785 326785 330782
      334779 340772 347765 353759 355759 358763 365772 370781
      374783 376786 375789 372799 370805 367809 360815 355821
      353830 345838 339840 338845 340856 344860 346864 351870
      355874 360874 364876 368876 371873 375875 398874 410877
      418882 441880 451879 453879 456882 456888 456892 455896
      456901 463910 465913 469910 474902 480894 486886 491867
      493853 493848 492845 491841 483814 477786 472764 474750
      476740 478724 478719 479716 479709 483692
 0.01 456010 456008 455006 454005 454003 453000 451001 450003
      449005 448006 446006 444005 443007 444008 445010 446010
      448011 448012 449013 451013 453014 454013 454012 456010
 0.25 401718 400708 397702 393706 388712 385718 384725 382731
      382736 384741 396769 398777 399782 396789 394792 391794
      385799 382803 379809 373815 369819 364821 362825 367831
      370832 374832 377827 381811 399793 403788 402782 404764
      401750 400743 401732 401718

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 070855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE TIME THE DAY 2 PERIOD
BEGINS ON MONDAY MORNING... WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS DIG
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. A LARGE CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH HELPS PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...WHILE A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION.
THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A .25 INCH OR GREATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN
UP OF MI. THE UPPER DYNAMICS THEN REACH THE MID-ATL COAST WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROCEED AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP
FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... WITH
THE RANGE OF SOLNS STILL HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING
UP FROM ANYWHERE FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS
NYC/NJ/NERN PA BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING INDUCE A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY. BY THE TIME EARLY MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP
LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL
COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE OF THE LARGE PRECIP
SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA
THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH
POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING
OR THROUGH OCEAN EFFECT PROCESSES.  SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK SINCE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
BE FALLING AS SNOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 461623 460631 461636 463640 469659 467676 467684 464690
      460697 456704 453710 448715 440723 431731 426736 425744
      424747 426753 430757 436761 440765 444771 450772 460775
      473778 477780 482784 488788 490797 491805 494813 497819
      500829 505843 505854 504858 504864 504869 503873 500880
      494892 487903 486907 486912 487922 487927 489929 487937
      484942 477945 472942 468937 456943 442947 440945 438937
      440931 439924 440918 436916 431916 422924 417928 412924
      409924 407922 403917 396915 396916 394919 396921 398925
      403929 410932 414937 421948 422952 420955 412955 403948
      397944 391942 382936 377930 372926 368921 366916 368913
      372912 378911 381909 380905 376902 369891 362880 357874
      352871 341867 338869 334869 331868 327868 321872 316873
      312869 310867 310863 313856 316851 319846 320843 321838
      323824 320821 316824 313829 309834 307836 303836 301835
      296835 293835 293833 295827 299822 303817 297814 284810
      282809 283806 282796 283790 283783 291771 307752 320733
      336711 351690 368670 370668 373666 382663 386663 388664
      390669 393671 404664 410661 412659 413656 415646 417638
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528034 524028 516021 508014 505013
      503011 496010 495010 494015 494020 496023 496026 499028
      502032 507035 512040 520046 524049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 455920 455918 455915 453914 452913 450916 452918 452920
      454923 455920
 0.01 351769 349767 347766 346767 345768 344770 344771 343772
      342773 341775 343777 344776 346774 348772 348771 349771
      351769
 0.01 287837 286835 286833 285831 284829 284828 282827 282825
      281825 280825 278825 277826 277828 278830 278832 278834
      280836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 285839 286838
      287837
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 252802 248802 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 478872 476870 474869 471868 469867 467868 467873 468875
      469880 470883 471886 473889 475887 476883 477880 477875
      478872
 0.25 474808 475801 474795 472792 469790 462792 456791 449790
      443786 436785 433788 431791 430795 431797 425801 419805
      419807 424808 438809 445810 449816 453824 458829 463834
      465834 467830 471823 473815 474808
 0.25 451657 450648 447642 444638 439636 435636 432640 426651
      416670 410678 397682 392683 386682 378678 372681 368684
      361692 346707 340714 333724 327732 322741 312760 308770
      305781 305786 310789 315788 319785 332769 338762 346754
      361739 366737 369733 373733 377729 382720 394717 418713
      426705 433698 440689 445679 449668 451657
 0.25 417809 414804 412802 412798 409794 405792 405786 404780
      401775 398772 389768 387769 386772 389778 392784 392787
      389792 385795 378802 371810 364816 358824 353833 351838
      354843 361836 364831 366830 367831 372830 376827 386822
      397819 407816 417809
 0.50 466809 466804 465801 463800 460800 458800 455803 454806
      454811 455816 456819 458820 460819 463817 464814 465812
      466809
 0.50 439660 439654 437649 435646 433648 425662 419676 415682
      407684 392692 385696 383699 383704 388707 392706 395703
      400700 404698 408697 415693 422689 426681 428673 433669
      437663 439660
 0.50 379700 379697 377695 374694 370695 366698 360704 352710
      344715 339720 330735 326743 323752 322756 322763 325765
      328764 336758 342752 355739 360734 364726 368718 374711
      378706 379700
 1.00 342737 341736 340736 338738 336740 335742 335743 334745
      333745 334746 335745 337745 339743 339742 340741 341740
      342738 342737

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 518083 514074 509067 502062 495056 490050 488054 488060
      489064 492067 496069 499072 505080 511087 514089 516088
      517085 518083
 0.01 521025 521015 519009 516005 510001 505998 501997 489995
      482994 478996 473997 467000 463003 459003 448997 445995
      441998 438001 435001 429998 425998 425001 426007 427011
      429013 433018 437021 443023 448025 456026 461029 464032
      472042 474045 477046 480046 482044 485042 489043 490045
      493046 497047 498049 504050 510051 516049 519049 518043
      516039 516034 518032 521025
 0.01 483692 482684 480678 479671 480664 478660 476657 469651
      466649 464654 463660 460664 456664 455663 450664 442674
      437683 432690 429692 427690 426683 424670 423663 421658
      417657 412657 392669 390682 385690 379696 374703 366709
      358711 353715 348716 345719 342723 338727 327741 324750
      323754 321758 317767 316774 317783 320785 326785 330782
      334779 340772 347765 353759 355759 358763 365772 370781
      374783 376786 375789 372799 370805 367809 360815 355821
      353830 345838 339840 338845 340856 344860 346864 351870
      355874 360874 364876 368876 371873 375875 398874 410877
      418882 441880 451879 453879 456882 456888 456892 455896
      456901 463910 465913 469910 474902 480894 486886 491867
      493853 493848 492845 491841 483814 477786 472764 474750
      476740 478724 478719 479716 479709 483692
 0.01 456010 456008 455006 454005 454003 453000 451001 450003
      449005 448006 446006 444005 443007 444008 445010 446010
      448011 448012 449013 451013 453014 454013 454012 456010
 0.25 401718 400708 397702 393706 388712 385718 384725 382731
      382736 384741 396769 398777 399782 396789 394792 391794
      385799 382803 379809 373815 369819 364821 362825 367831
      370832 374832 377827 381811 399793 403788 402782 404764
      401750 400743 401732 401718

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 070855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE TIME THE DAY 2 PERIOD
BEGINS ON MONDAY MORNING... WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS DIG
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. A LARGE CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH HELPS PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...WHILE A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION.
THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A .25 INCH OR GREATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN
UP OF MI. THE UPPER DYNAMICS THEN REACH THE MID-ATL COAST WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROCEED AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP
FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... WITH
THE RANGE OF SOLNS STILL HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING
UP FROM ANYWHERE FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS
NYC/NJ/NERN PA BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING INDUCE A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY. BY THE TIME EARLY MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP
LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL
COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE OF THE LARGE PRECIP
SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA
THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH
POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING
OR THROUGH OCEAN EFFECT PROCESSES.  SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK SINCE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
BE FALLING AS SNOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 461623 460631 461636 463640 469659 467676 467684 464690
      460697 456704 453710 448715 440723 431731 426736 425744
      424747 426753 430757 436761 440765 444771 450772 460775
      473778 477780 482784 488788 490797 491805 494813 497819
      500829 505843 505854 504858 504864 504869 503873 500880
      494892 487903 486907 486912 487922 487927 489929 487937
      484942 477945 472942 468937 456943 442947 440945 438937
      440931 439924 440918 436916 431916 422924 417928 412924
      409924 407922 403917 396915 396916 394919 396921 398925
      403929 410932 414937 421948 422952 420955 412955 403948
      397944 391942 382936 377930 372926 368921 366916 368913
      372912 378911 381909 380905 376902 369891 362880 357874
      352871 341867 338869 334869 331868 327868 321872 316873
      312869 310867 310863 313856 316851 319846 320843 321838
      323824 320821 316824 313829 309834 307836 303836 301835
      296835 293835 293833 295827 299822 303817 297814 284810
      282809 283806 282796 283790 283783 291771 307752 320733
      336711 351690 368670 370668 373666 382663 386663 388664
      390669 393671 404664 410661 412659 413656 415646 417638
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528034 524028 516021 508014 505013
      503011 496010 495010 494015 494020 496023 496026 499028
      502032 507035 512040 520046 524049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 455920 455918 455915 453914 452913 450916 452918 452920
      454923 455920
 0.01 351769 349767 347766 346767 345768 344770 344771 343772
      342773 341775 343777 344776 346774 348772 348771 349771
      351769
 0.01 287837 286835 286833 285831 284829 284828 282827 282825
      281825 280825 278825 277826 277828 278830 278832 278834
      280836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 285839 286838
      287837
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 252802 248802 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 478872 476870 474869 471868 469867 467868 467873 468875
      469880 470883 471886 473889 475887 476883 477880 477875
      478872
 0.25 474808 475801 474795 472792 469790 462792 456791 449790
      443786 436785 433788 431791 430795 431797 425801 419805
      419807 424808 438809 445810 449816 453824 458829 463834
      465834 467830 471823 473815 474808
 0.25 451657 450648 447642 444638 439636 435636 432640 426651
      416670 410678 397682 392683 386682 378678 372681 368684
      361692 346707 340714 333724 327732 322741 312760 308770
      305781 305786 310789 315788 319785 332769 338762 346754
      361739 366737 369733 373733 377729 382720 394717 418713
      426705 433698 440689 445679 449668 451657
 0.25 417809 414804 412802 412798 409794 405792 405786 404780
      401775 398772 389768 387769 386772 389778 392784 392787
      389792 385795 378802 371810 364816 358824 353833 351838
      354843 361836 364831 366830 367831 372830 376827 386822
      397819 407816 417809
 0.50 466809 466804 465801 463800 460800 458800 455803 454806
      454811 455816 456819 458820 460819 463817 464814 465812
      466809
 0.50 439660 439654 437649 435646 433648 425662 419676 415682
      407684 392692 385696 383699 383704 388707 392706 395703
      400700 404698 408697 415693 422689 426681 428673 433669
      437663 439660
 0.50 379700 379697 377695 374694 370695 366698 360704 352710
      344715 339720 330735 326743 323752 322756 322763 325765
      328764 336758 342752 355739 360734 364726 368718 374711
      378706 379700
 1.00 342737 341736 340736 338738 336740 335742 335743 334745
      333745 334746 335745 337745 339743 339742 340741 341740
      342738 342737

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 518083 514074 509067 502062 495056 490050 488054 488060
      489064 492067 496069 499072 505080 511087 514089 516088
      517085 518083
 0.01 521025 521015 519009 516005 510001 505998 501997 489995
      482994 478996 473997 467000 463003 459003 448997 445995
      441998 438001 435001 429998 425998 425001 426007 427011
      429013 433018 437021 443023 448025 456026 461029 464032
      472042 474045 477046 480046 482044 485042 489043 490045
      493046 497047 498049 504050 510051 516049 519049 518043
      516039 516034 518032 521025
 0.01 483692 482684 480678 479671 480664 478660 476657 469651
      466649 464654 463660 460664 456664 455663 450664 442674
      437683 432690 429692 427690 426683 424670 423663 421658
      417657 412657 392669 390682 385690 379696 374703 366709
      358711 353715 348716 345719 342723 338727 327741 324750
      323754 321758 317767 316774 317783 320785 326785 330782
      334779 340772 347765 353759 355759 358763 365772 370781
      374783 376786 375789 372799 370805 367809 360815 355821
      353830 345838 339840 338845 340856 344860 346864 351870
      355874 360874 364876 368876 371873 375875 398874 410877
      418882 441880 451879 453879 456882 456888 456892 455896
      456901 463910 465913 469910 474902 480894 486886 491867
      493853 493848 492845 491841 483814 477786 472764 474750
      476740 478724 478719 479716 479709 483692
 0.01 456010 456008 455006 454005 454003 453000 451001 450003
      449005 448006 446006 444005 443007 444008 445010 446010
      448011 448012 449013 451013 453014 454013 454012 456010
 0.25 401718 400708 397702 393706 388712 385718 384725 382731
      382736 384741 396769 398777 399782 396789 394792 391794
      385799 382803 379809 373815 369819 364821 362825 367831
      370832 374832 377827 381811 399793 403788 402782 404764
      401750 400743 401732 401718

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 070855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE TIME THE DAY 2 PERIOD
BEGINS ON MONDAY MORNING... WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS DIG
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. A LARGE CLOSED MID TO
UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH HELPS PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...WHILE A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION.
THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A .25 INCH OR GREATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN
UP OF MI. THE UPPER DYNAMICS THEN REACH THE MID-ATL COAST WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING.  THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROCEED AWAY FROM
THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP
FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF
MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... WITH
THE RANGE OF SOLNS STILL HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN SETTING
UP FROM ANYWHERE FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS
NYC/NJ/NERN PA BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING INDUCE A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY. BY THE TIME EARLY MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP
LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL
COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE OF THE LARGE PRECIP
SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING
DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA
THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH
POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING
OR THROUGH OCEAN EFFECT PROCESSES.  SEE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK SINCE AT LEAST SOME OF THE PCPN WILL
BE FALLING AS SNOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 461623 460631 461636 463640 469659 467676 467684 464690
      460697 456704 453710 448715 440723 431731 426736 425744
      424747 426753 430757 436761 440765 444771 450772 460775
      473778 477780 482784 488788 490797 491805 494813 497819
      500829 505843 505854 504858 504864 504869 503873 500880
      494892 487903 486907 486912 487922 487927 489929 487937
      484942 477945 472942 468937 456943 442947 440945 438937
      440931 439924 440918 436916 431916 422924 417928 412924
      409924 407922 403917 396915 396916 394919 396921 398925
      403929 410932 414937 421948 422952 420955 412955 403948
      397944 391942 382936 377930 372926 368921 366916 368913
      372912 378911 381909 380905 376902 369891 362880 357874
      352871 341867 338869 334869 331868 327868 321872 316873
      312869 310867 310863 313856 316851 319846 320843 321838
      323824 320821 316824 313829 309834 307836 303836 301835
      296835 293835 293833 295827 299822 303817 297814 284810
      282809 283806 282796 283790 283783 291771 307752 320733
      336711 351690 368670 370668 373666 382663 386663 388664
      390669 393671 404664 410661 412659 413656 415646 417638
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528034 524028 516021 508014 505013
      503011 496010 495010 494015 494020 496023 496026 499028
      502032 507035 512040 520046 524049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 455920 455918 455915 453914 452913 450916 452918 452920
      454923 455920
 0.01 351769 349767 347766 346767 345768 344770 344771 343772
      342773 341775 343777 344776 346774 348772 348771 349771
      351769
 0.01 287837 286835 286833 285831 284829 284828 282827 282825
      281825 280825 278825 277826 277828 278830 278832 278834
      280836 280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 285839 286838
      287837
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 252802 248802 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 478872 476870 474869 471868 469867 467868 467873 468875
      469880 470883 471886 473889 475887 476883 477880 477875
      478872
 0.25 474808 475801 474795 472792 469790 462792 456791 449790
      443786 436785 433788 431791 430795 431797 425801 419805
      419807 424808 438809 445810 449816 453824 458829 463834
      465834 467830 471823 473815 474808
 0.25 451657 450648 447642 444638 439636 435636 432640 426651
      416670 410678 397682 392683 386682 378678 372681 368684
      361692 346707 340714 333724 327732 322741 312760 308770
      305781 305786 310789 315788 319785 332769 338762 346754
      361739 366737 369733 373733 377729 382720 394717 418713
      426705 433698 440689 445679 449668 451657
 0.25 417809 414804 412802 412798 409794 405792 405786 404780
      401775 398772 389768 387769 386772 389778 392784 392787
      389792 385795 378802 371810 364816 358824 353833 351838
      354843 361836 364831 366830 367831 372830 376827 386822
      397819 407816 417809
 0.50 466809 466804 465801 463800 460800 458800 455803 454806
      454811 455816 456819 458820 460819 463817 464814 465812
      466809
 0.50 439660 439654 437649 435646 433648 425662 419676 415682
      407684 392692 385696 383699 383704 388707 392706 395703
      400700 404698 408697 415693 422689 426681 428673 433669
      437663 439660
 0.50 379700 379697 377695 374694 370695 366698 360704 352710
      344715 339720 330735 326743 323752 322756 322763 325765
      328764 336758 342752 355739 360734 364726 368718 374711
      378706 379700
 1.00 342737 341736 340736 338738 336740 335742 335743 334745
      333745 334746 335745 337745 339743 339742 340741 341740
      342738 342737

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 518083 514074 509067 502062 495056 490050 488054 488060
      489064 492067 496069 499072 505080 511087 514089 516088
      517085 518083
 0.01 521025 521015 519009 516005 510001 505998 501997 489995
      482994 478996 473997 467000 463003 459003 448997 445995
      441998 438001 435001 429998 425998 425001 426007 427011
      429013 433018 437021 443023 448025 456026 461029 464032
      472042 474045 477046 480046 482044 485042 489043 490045
      493046 497047 498049 504050 510051 516049 519049 518043
      516039 516034 518032 521025
 0.01 483692 482684 480678 479671 480664 478660 476657 469651
      466649 464654 463660 460664 456664 455663 450664 442674
      437683 432690 429692 427690 426683 424670 423663 421658
      417657 412657 392669 390682 385690 379696 374703 366709
      358711 353715 348716 345719 342723 338727 327741 324750
      323754 321758 317767 316774 317783 320785 326785 330782
      334779 340772 347765 353759 355759 358763 365772 370781
      374783 376786 375789 372799 370805 367809 360815 355821
      353830 345838 339840 338845 340856 344860 346864 351870
      355874 360874 364876 368876 371873 375875 398874 410877
      418882 441880 451879 453879 456882 456888 456892 455896
      456901 463910 465913 469910 474902 480894 486886 491867
      493853 493848 492845 491841 483814 477786 472764 474750
      476740 478724 478719 479716 479709 483692
 0.01 456010 456008 455006 454005 454003 453000 451001 450003
      449005 448006 446006 444005 443007 444008 445010 446010
      448011 448012 449013 451013 453014 454013 454012 456010
 0.25 401718 400708 397702 393706 388712 385718 384725 382731
      382736 384741 396769 398777 399782 396789 394792 391794
      385799 382803 379809 373815 369819 364821 362825 367831
      370832 374832 377827 381811 399793 403788 402782 404764
      401750 400743 401732 401718

$$





000
FOUS11 KWBC 070831
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2016


UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS...

THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF A MAJOR CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...A LARGE REGION OF UPPER CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY...AND THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS LEAVES A COMPLICATED SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR ALL 3
DAYS FROM THE SOUTHEAST US ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY ALSO BE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE ISSUES THAT ALSO COMPLICATE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
THERE APPEAR TO BE SEVERAL DISJOINTED AREAS OF SNOWFALL THAT ARE
NOT CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FROM ONE MODELING SYSTEM TO MODELING
SYSTEM.  ALL IN ALL...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

IN THIS KIND OF FORECAST DILEMMA WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS A GOOD STRATEGY GOING IN IS TO BE RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE ON AMOUNTS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS/SPREAD AS A
GUIDE WITH WHICH TO SELECT PARTS OF SOME OPERATIONAL FORECASTS
THAT SEEM TO MATCH TO SOME DEGREE THE MEAN SOLUTIONS.  THIS OF
COURSE STILL ALLOWS SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS.  FOR
EXAMPLE...THE NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS FOR BRINGING SNOW NORTHWARD ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAYS 1
INTO 2 MAY APPEAR TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SOME
OTHER MODELS...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED SINCE THEY STILL
REPRESENT A PORTION OF THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.

ON DAY 1/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...A DEEP CYCLONE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A SMALL PROBABILITY OF
SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...WITH ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT SOME
REGION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL PICK UP MEASURABLE SNOW...LET ALONE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
ROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BRING A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE RISK OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF
SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH ONLY A
LOW RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

BY DAY 2/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THERE REMAINS A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WHILE ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS WHERE THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES EXTENDS NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN MARYLAND.  ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE IS
LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IS LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

BY DAY 3/TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS ONLY A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

KOCIN


$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 070753
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

...VALID 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 08 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 070634
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 070634
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 070634
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 980 MB BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD. A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHILE ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SC/NC COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY AND THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPANDS INLAND. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN...INVOLVING
NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY...TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE LESSER BUT
NONETHELESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG THE SC/NC COAST
AND OUTER BANKS WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SHORE...AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST AS FLORENCE TO
RALEIGH. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL UP THE COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST VA TO NJ TO EASTERN MA WILL EXPERIENCE
HEIGHT FALLS PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NOTEWORTHY
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT PER ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY FROM VA NORTHWARD...SOME EASTERLY WARM ADVECTION
MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...AND THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE MID LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE.

THIS THINKING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GEFS
MEAN...NAM CONUS NEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM REGIONAL. OUR
IN-HOUSE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THESE...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE SPREADING PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR INLAND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SREF MEAN. TO TEMPER THAT...WE
TOOK A 40/40/20 BLEND OF OUR BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE WITH THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...AND USED THAT OUTPUT AS A
TEMPLATE FOR ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ON A BROAD SCALE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THERMODYNAMICS AND/OR DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH MELTED ACCUMULATIONS
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE H7-5 TROUGH...FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WILL BE AIDED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE EFFECT ON LOCAL
SCALES...BUT ALSO AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH THIS REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND ARCTIC AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT ALOFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND WE REFINED SOME OF THE
DETAILS USING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT WITH LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 416638 421641 425644 432655 438667 436678 433691 429704
      419724 416729 412734 404743 396752 388758 382759 378763
      374767 371774 365796 362803 359807 355811 349815 340819
      336822 329823 324825 317826 311825 306822 301819 298816
      291808 285799 277790 274787 269784 264783 257783 250784
      245783 242779 245774 250766 255757 262749 271741 289729
      322700 327691 333684
 0.01 538205 538188 533176 530174 528170 525170 520167 516167
      509167 504167 501167 501170 502176 507188 512192 516198
      518204 519212 522217 526220 530218 534214 538205
 0.01 518276 519269 519264 518258 516253 511237 506230 503227
      499226 494218 492212 486207 477207 471208 465211 464219
      472217 476218 478217 482218 486220 492221 495223 497227
      501236 502243 500246 498243 493235 486231 480228 472226
      468227 466230 465240 463242 459242 454246 449253 444260
      446265 454269 463272 471274 475275 478275 487278 494283
      502287 506289 509288 515283 518276
 0.01 512276 513274 512272 512271 511270 510269 509270 508272
      508275 509276 510277 512277 512276
 0.01 517957 516951 516942 514936 514929 510913 509907 508900
      505885 503872 503859 505847 504834 501821 496809 492797
      486788 482783 479779 475777 468774 463772 460770 456772
      454777 455781 454785 449782 443782 439784 431789 424792
      415796 406800 396804 389808 379814 370820 367822 363826
      359833 357837 357844 356849 354852 352858 355862 362865
      366876 368880 371884 374884 376881 380878 384875 402869
      410864 415863 418864 419867 421872 424872 425869 428864
      429859 430856 432855 435854 438856 443861 446863 448865
      448869 449876 450882 447887 444889 442892 439892 434892
      413885 409884 407882 397883 394885 392886 390888 385897
      382901 380906 380918 380925 385929 391936 395938 397941
      404947 409956 410959 414961 421970 426978 433983 437988
      441990 448995 455998 461998 465996 470996 472997 473001
      476013 481022 488028 493027 496023 501014 503006 510983
      512976 515968 516961 517957
 0.01 496655 495648 491643 484641 478643 476643 474647 470651
      469654 464665 461671 460676 457688 455693 454698 450710
      450716 449721 446727 445733 445741 446744 448744 456723
      460711 464703 472693 479686 492669 494666 496663 496655
 0.01 253826 253820 251816 249812 247808 245804 243800 240803
      240809 241815 242821 244825 246829 249831 252828 253826
 0.25 502278 503272 503268 501262 498257 494251 491247 488244
      486248 487253 488255 491261 493267 496273 500277 502278
 0.25 490881 489865 489858 487854 483846 479837 475827 472816
      470811 466808 460804 451802 443802 438803 435807 437812
      442812 445812 450814 454815 456818 460822 462827 463832
      463839 464846 466851 472856 478863 481872 485883 488885
      490881
 0.25 471910 471907 471905 471902 471900 471897 470896 469895
      468895 467895 465898 464900 464903 464905 464908 464910
      464913 465914 467915 469914 470912 470911 471910
 0.25 419673 418664 416659 413653 408649 404647 399647 390649
      377654 366661 359667 351674 342682 334690 329698 321706
      305722 302726 299730 295739 289748 282758 275764 271768
      270773 275774 281775 287776 291780 295791 301799 309806
      314809 320810 326810 331809 340804 349798 353793 356788
      360777 364769 370759 378749 392734 399726 406716 410707
      414696 418683 419673
 0.50 413675 412667 410660 407655 403652 395651 384654 374658
      364665 351678 343684 336692 324706 318713 311722 308725
      306730 303738 292756 300768 297779 298785 299790 306797
      312801 317803 321804 328804 335802 342797 348791 351787
      353782 358771 363762 368755 373748 381739 393725 398718
      404708 408699 411689 412680 413675
 1.00 404680 404673 402667 400662 397660 390658 386657 381659
      355681 340693 334698 330705 320718 316726 315733 312754
      314763 311769 306776 305781 305787 311792 317795 324797
      330797 335795 342790 345785 353767 362754 382729 387721
      392713 399697 403687 404680
 1.50 397682 397676 396673 390667 386666 382665 377668 371675
      365679 354688 342698 338699 335702 332707 327714 324721
      322728 321735 316769 312775 310779 311785 316790 322792
      331791 337789 340787 346774 348767 352760 360749 370737
      375732 378726 391699 395689 397682
 2.00 390683 387677 384678 381679 368684 363688 356693 354695
      353698 351704 348706 345705 339705 333715 329721 327728
      326735 327744 330751 328759 325764 320769 316774 315777
      314782 319787 322788 326788 331787 335785 337783 342772
      345765 349759 356750 361745 365738 372729 376723 379716
      384703 388693 390683
 3.00 363729 360728 356730 353735 344744 340750 338755 334762
      330766 321776 321778 321782 327781 333777 337773 344761
      347755 351751 359741 362734 363729
 3.00 337729 336727 335727 334728 335730 335732 336732 337730
      337729

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 070044
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORRISON
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 070044
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORRISON
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 070044
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 07 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

ORRISON
$$






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