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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 301411
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT RECENT OBSERATIONAL DATA AND SOME OF THE RECENT
HIRES QPF GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER
THINKING/REASONING REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 70 SW APF 55 W APF 50 WSW PGD 30 S SRQ 20 WNW PGD
10 SSE PGD 15 NNE APF 30 SE APF 25 WSW TMB 10 NW TMB 10 NNW HWO
10 ESE BCT 20 ESE PMP 25 ESE MIA 25 E MTH 40 SSE NQX 40 SSW KEY
40 SW KEY.

...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 301411
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT RECENT OBSERATIONAL DATA AND SOME OF THE RECENT
HIRES QPF GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER
THINKING/REASONING REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 70 SW APF 55 W APF 50 WSW PGD 30 S SRQ 20 WNW PGD
10 SSE PGD 15 NNE APF 30 SE APF 25 WSW TMB 10 NW TMB 10 NNW HWO
10 ESE BCT 20 ESE PMP 25 ESE MIA 25 E MTH 40 SSE NQX 40 SSW KEY
40 SW KEY.

...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 301411
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT RECENT OBSERATIONAL DATA AND SOME OF THE RECENT
HIRES QPF GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER
THINKING/REASONING REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 70 SW APF 55 W APF 50 WSW PGD 30 S SRQ 20 WNW PGD
10 SSE PGD 15 NNE APF 30 SE APF 25 WSW TMB 10 NW TMB 10 NNW HWO
10 ESE BCT 20 ESE PMP 25 ESE MIA 25 E MTH 40 SSE NQX 40 SSW KEY
40 SW KEY.

...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 301411
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT RECENT OBSERATIONAL DATA AND SOME OF THE RECENT
HIRES QPF GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM EARLIER
THINKING/REASONING REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 70 SW APF 55 W APF 50 WSW PGD 30 S SRQ 20 WNW PGD
10 SSE PGD 15 NNE APF 30 SE APF 25 WSW TMB 10 NW TMB 10 NNW HWO
10 ESE BCT 20 ESE PMP 25 ESE MIA 25 E MTH 40 SSE NQX 40 SSW KEY
40 SW KEY.

...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300925
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

ONLY SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN PRECIP TOTALS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FL
INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST MADE FROM THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE.  THESE CHANGES WERE BASED ON LATEST HI RES
ENSEMBLES AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEANS.

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.


DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539200 539193 534183 529173 525165 518156 514152
      508149 500143 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124 474120
      475117 478117 483118 486116 510075 514072 517067 519062
      519056 518050 515045 514043 515041 518037 522033 524028
      525026 524023 521017 505005 500003 494002 483002 466006
      463006 463010 465017 468023 471029 473033 474035 474039
      470051 467064 466071 463077 461089 459094 457100 450109
      446111 440109 439107 437109 434114 441117 444120 447124
      452122 454119 459116 454141 453149 450155 448162 447166
      448171 448178 445183 441188 439195 444204 446206 445208
      441211 434217 427220 423223 426227 424231 421233 411235
      405237 402242 408251 412253 417253 434250 446249 451249
      458249 462249 468251 473254 477258 500291 505290 510286
      514282 516276 518271 520261 519247 516241 515234 510225
      501207 504202 509205 515215 519219 522222 528223 532222
      536217 538210
 0.01 482685 480680 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 456725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424725 422728 417735 414739
      412745 408754 404766 402779 399790 396793 391796 383801
      377805 375810 373812 371808 371804 369803 365800 360790
      356779 353771 353764 352759 349755 345751 344747 341744
      337742 331748 325755 324757 320758 318757 315757 308758
      304759 300758 289759 284760 280759 268760 264761 260764
      245776 230788 226799 223807 221816 219824 222837 225841
      226847 235850 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852
      275851 283848 287847 292848 298848 303849 308850 312854
      320862 325881 326889 327894 331896 341900 351904 357910
      359915 355919 352921 348925 341930 339934 340938 341944
      343946 349953 353956 359956 368952 371947 374943 377938
      379934 384926 389918 392908 401887 408864 410859 413854
      416846 419835 423827 426815 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226068 228073 232077 236080 247089 253091 258095
      269100 277107 287115 293118 303119 315116 324112 333113
      336117 342123 348126 354129 358134 362138 366140 386125
      386122 388121 395120 405117 408117 412115 414113 414109
      414106 413102 412101 408100 402096 406092 410089 413084
      413078 413074 411070 409067 405065 402067 398064 392063
      387065 384067 381065 377062 372058 371054 373051 370050
      367051 363051 350071 334071 329074 327080 326086 323089
      319088 308083 295076 284070 274064 264059 252055 244054
      237052 231050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533198 530186 525177 520167 513161 508164
      505164 496164 487159 470154 468150 464147 460149 458155
      460159 465160 468162 473162 476165 479168 482173 485176
      493183 502188 508193 512198 515202 520210 525213 530214
      533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517256 516248 513242 509230 503218 500211
      497208 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440226 446227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 458240 465239 469243 478251 485261 499283 504284
      508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      406823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 356815 355810 352801 348794 345781 341774 334772
      323774 314777 304778 296778 287777 277777 266777 257779
      249782 241788 236794 233800 231809 229819 228828 232833
      240835 249837 266840 276842 285842 295841 300836 307835
      312837 317838 323842 328848 332855 337863 342864 345861
      348854 349843 353834 356821
 0.25 295098 296094 295091 293085 289081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243069 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 521178 517175 511170 509169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516256 514250 512244 504226 500217 496211
      494210 485210 475212 473214 475218 480219 485222 489226
      490229 495240 501248 502251 501255 498255 493246 491241
      487237 485238 484240 483248 484253 487259 497276 500281
      504282 508280 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 347814 345806 343794 341786 341782 339778
      336777 333778 325781 309782 292783 278782 270783 261784
      254786 249789 244793 239799 234810 233818 234827 236830
      239831 245832 252834 260835 267836 275835 281833 291832
      298832 304830 310831 319834 328841 334845 343843 346839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505274 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279 504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337817 335791 331786 326786 311789 298790 291791 286790
      275790 267790 260792 250796 246799 242803 237812 237818
      238824 241827 246829 252830 258831 269831 278825 286825
      292826 296825 307825 319828 324827 329825 334822 337817
      337817
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331805 331797 328792 324792 317793 304794 294794 285800
      290810 293814 296817 300820 305821 318821 322821 327819
      331809 331805
 1.50 272824 271820 268815 266811 265806 265804 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 247827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 327807 328802 327796 319796 311796 303797 299798 296800
      295803 296809 300815 307818 314818 321816 326810 327807
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 323808 323803 320802 318802 314801 311802 308803 306806
      305808 306812 308814 310814 314815 317814 319812 321810
      323808
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562889 560872 559869 560864 560855 559845 557839
      554833 551830 547830 542832 535841 532848 529851 506893
      500903 497908 494911 491916 485919 482923 479929 475939
      474946 474953 477959 478962 477965 477975 477984 479989
      480992 479996 477002 475009 471024 470041 471047 473053
      475057 476059 480060 483060 485058 489054 495046 508029
      515019 518014 521007 526999 529993 531988 542965 551941
      553932 554930 557929 560930 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520255 517243 515237 511231 514216 515212
      517214 519219 521224 524230 529232 532227 537213 538209
      539201 539194 537187 531176 526164 521155 511150 502144
      492137 488135 485132 481129 476129 479134 483136 487141
      488147 482175 481185 478191 472198 466207 458212 454216
      452220 453226 454229 454233 451235 447237 442237 443244
      445249 448254 450259 454265 458274 461278 464282 468286
      471287 474285 481280 483281 484284 485289 489299 497308
      502309 506303 511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501644 499633 498627 496622 491617 486616 479619
      474624 471633 470648 469669 469678 467686 462701 460705
      458703 454698 451699 448702 443708 440712 440719 441721
      440723 438727 438734 440736 444735 448731 454725 459719
      458711 460708 461713 462716 466718 470717 472718 478720
      481721 485721 488722 490719 494715 496707 497698 498677
      500665 502655
 0.01 504872 501867 497865 494860 489863 481873 473881 463892
      456903 442925 436935 431947 426958 419971 413984 407997
      400010 395009 390013 372025 364034 355042 351045 345046
      340047 336047 329047 325048 320048 319051 320058 319062
      317065 316067 313068 311070 307070 297072 291070 284069
      278069 272067 260062 254060 249057 238050 231048 228051
      228055 225061 227067 231076 237084 247093 252097 257101
      262105 269109 274111 280111 286109 290108 293111 298116
      303118 308119 313118 326116 329115 332116 335121 340133
      342136 346138 353140 364138 368138 370136 376132 391117
      404114 399108 389113 385113 381115 375118 369119 363116
      360115 358113 353108 352105 352102 354095 358092 364092
      368091 371091 373089 376091 377098 381099 383097 387095
      392095 401090 405089 407091 410091 411088 416069 420064
      425060 427054 426049 422043 418040 418034 417029 416029
      413027 414023 417017 422004 426997 429992 437978 440973
      443967 450958 453953 456947 464936 479912 493889 499881
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 419779 417769 416767 415762
      414755 414748 415741 413735 408735 403745 398756 395770
      393776 391780 388785 383788 379793 376797 372802 369807
      365811 363815 360819 357825 355830 353836 355839 357839
      362837 367838 373837 377835 379832 383832 385836 386840
      386850 383863 374886 372891 369896 365902 362907 360912
      357916 352927 351933 348939 349946 350947 354947 358946
      363943 366941 370936 382914 387906 392895 399883 401878
      402871 406860 412850 416845 418839 422827 424810 424802
      425796
 0.01 379741 377725 376715 373710 369705 362705 358700 354697
      349698 346703 347720 345725 341731 336736 333740 325747
      317755 309765 300773 291780 289782 285782 278783 272782
      266780 259780 253783 250786 247790 240799 237803 235806
      236809 239816 238822 241826 241830 239836 240840 242842
      254847 260848 267848 272850 277852 280855 287856 295856
      298861 302867 306869 311859 313854 314851 316849 320847
      323847 329848 332848 335846 339841 345833 349827 351822
      354817 355809 357794 360790 363784 365779 371780 376780
      377772 378755 378748 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307923 303909 296902 291899 286900 284902
      284905 286910 288912 288916 284919 280922 274925 263929
      252933 246933 243937 239942 237947 237951 235954 235957
      237959 240971 244975 248978 256985 260988 266991 273991
      278989 286981 292973 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551875 549867 547864 543864 539870 536876
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517935 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 531188 524170 520162 513159 503156 499156 496159
      493166 492172 493176 495179 496185 497191 496195 490198
      483200 471210 465214 464218 465222 466227 466233 465237
      466242 469248 475254 482260 488267 498279 501282 505285
      508285 511284 516278 518273 518268 516257 513247 510240
      507231 505221 503210 501207 502202 505200 509202 517206
      524212 528214 532213 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 406059 402055 392048 387046 381047 369048
      365049 363051 363054 365056 371055 379057 380060 378062
      374066 374073 376076 379077 384075 387073 390074 395078
      399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 367739 365734 363730 363722 360718 358717 355718
      354723 352728 349736 342742 329755 303779 289790 287794
      287801 288804 285805 281804 273803 263802 257802 252804
      245809 243813 243818 245829 245833 247837 251839 257839
      275842 286843 294843 299841 302838 308833 321819 326812
      333808 339801 344792 348785 354778 363761 366754 367746
 0.25 346094 347087 346081 343078 338078 328081 323091 320093
      317090 314088 311088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317101
      321097 324094 329093 333095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293088 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 251082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 282094
      287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259971 259974 262976 268977 273977 277976
      283970 288963 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505163 502168 500175 502181 505190 512197 518203 521205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516268 515262 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      494206 488204 485205 478208 474211 472216 472221 475225
      477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250 485250
      488247 490240 496247 503254 503259 502264 502270 503276
      506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 341755 333758 327762 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332798 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 312819 309816 302813 287812 281809 274807 266807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 249833 253836
      260837 275840 282841 292840 299838 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 303822 296823 286821 277816 273814 268813
      258813 256814 254816 254820 255822 255830 259832 264834
      275836 286835 292836 299834 302832 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 298828 296827 291827 287827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300925
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

ONLY SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN PRECIP TOTALS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FL
INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST MADE FROM THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE
FINAL ISSUANCE.  THESE CHANGES WERE BASED ON LATEST HI RES
ENSEMBLES AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEANS.

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.


DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539200 539193 534183 529173 525165 518156 514152
      508149 500143 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124 474120
      475117 478117 483118 486116 510075 514072 517067 519062
      519056 518050 515045 514043 515041 518037 522033 524028
      525026 524023 521017 505005 500003 494002 483002 466006
      463006 463010 465017 468023 471029 473033 474035 474039
      470051 467064 466071 463077 461089 459094 457100 450109
      446111 440109 439107 437109 434114 441117 444120 447124
      452122 454119 459116 454141 453149 450155 448162 447166
      448171 448178 445183 441188 439195 444204 446206 445208
      441211 434217 427220 423223 426227 424231 421233 411235
      405237 402242 408251 412253 417253 434250 446249 451249
      458249 462249 468251 473254 477258 500291 505290 510286
      514282 516276 518271 520261 519247 516241 515234 510225
      501207 504202 509205 515215 519219 522222 528223 532222
      536217 538210
 0.01 482685 480680 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 456725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424725 422728 417735 414739
      412745 408754 404766 402779 399790 396793 391796 383801
      377805 375810 373812 371808 371804 369803 365800 360790
      356779 353771 353764 352759 349755 345751 344747 341744
      337742 331748 325755 324757 320758 318757 315757 308758
      304759 300758 289759 284760 280759 268760 264761 260764
      245776 230788 226799 223807 221816 219824 222837 225841
      226847 235850 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852
      275851 283848 287847 292848 298848 303849 308850 312854
      320862 325881 326889 327894 331896 341900 351904 357910
      359915 355919 352921 348925 341930 339934 340938 341944
      343946 349953 353956 359956 368952 371947 374943 377938
      379934 384926 389918 392908 401887 408864 410859 413854
      416846 419835 423827 426815 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226068 228073 232077 236080 247089 253091 258095
      269100 277107 287115 293118 303119 315116 324112 333113
      336117 342123 348126 354129 358134 362138 366140 386125
      386122 388121 395120 405117 408117 412115 414113 414109
      414106 413102 412101 408100 402096 406092 410089 413084
      413078 413074 411070 409067 405065 402067 398064 392063
      387065 384067 381065 377062 372058 371054 373051 370050
      367051 363051 350071 334071 329074 327080 326086 323089
      319088 308083 295076 284070 274064 264059 252055 244054
      237052 231050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533198 530186 525177 520167 513161 508164
      505164 496164 487159 470154 468150 464147 460149 458155
      460159 465160 468162 473162 476165 479168 482173 485176
      493183 502188 508193 512198 515202 520210 525213 530214
      533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517256 516248 513242 509230 503218 500211
      497208 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440226 446227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 458240 465239 469243 478251 485261 499283 504284
      508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      406823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 356815 355810 352801 348794 345781 341774 334772
      323774 314777 304778 296778 287777 277777 266777 257779
      249782 241788 236794 233800 231809 229819 228828 232833
      240835 249837 266840 276842 285842 295841 300836 307835
      312837 317838 323842 328848 332855 337863 342864 345861
      348854 349843 353834 356821
 0.25 295098 296094 295091 293085 289081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243069 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 521178 517175 511170 509169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516256 514250 512244 504226 500217 496211
      494210 485210 475212 473214 475218 480219 485222 489226
      490229 495240 501248 502251 501255 498255 493246 491241
      487237 485238 484240 483248 484253 487259 497276 500281
      504282 508280 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 347814 345806 343794 341786 341782 339778
      336777 333778 325781 309782 292783 278782 270783 261784
      254786 249789 244793 239799 234810 233818 234827 236830
      239831 245832 252834 260835 267836 275835 281833 291832
      298832 304830 310831 319834 328841 334845 343843 346839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505274 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279 504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337817 335791 331786 326786 311789 298790 291791 286790
      275790 267790 260792 250796 246799 242803 237812 237818
      238824 241827 246829 252830 258831 269831 278825 286825
      292826 296825 307825 319828 324827 329825 334822 337817
      337817
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331805 331797 328792 324792 317793 304794 294794 285800
      290810 293814 296817 300820 305821 318821 322821 327819
      331809 331805
 1.50 272824 271820 268815 266811 265806 265804 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 247827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 327807 328802 327796 319796 311796 303797 299798 296800
      295803 296809 300815 307818 314818 321816 326810 327807
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 323808 323803 320802 318802 314801 311802 308803 306806
      305808 306812 308814 310814 314815 317814 319812 321810
      323808
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562889 560872 559869 560864 560855 559845 557839
      554833 551830 547830 542832 535841 532848 529851 506893
      500903 497908 494911 491916 485919 482923 479929 475939
      474946 474953 477959 478962 477965 477975 477984 479989
      480992 479996 477002 475009 471024 470041 471047 473053
      475057 476059 480060 483060 485058 489054 495046 508029
      515019 518014 521007 526999 529993 531988 542965 551941
      553932 554930 557929 560930 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520255 517243 515237 511231 514216 515212
      517214 519219 521224 524230 529232 532227 537213 538209
      539201 539194 537187 531176 526164 521155 511150 502144
      492137 488135 485132 481129 476129 479134 483136 487141
      488147 482175 481185 478191 472198 466207 458212 454216
      452220 453226 454229 454233 451235 447237 442237 443244
      445249 448254 450259 454265 458274 461278 464282 468286
      471287 474285 481280 483281 484284 485289 489299 497308
      502309 506303 511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501644 499633 498627 496622 491617 486616 479619
      474624 471633 470648 469669 469678 467686 462701 460705
      458703 454698 451699 448702 443708 440712 440719 441721
      440723 438727 438734 440736 444735 448731 454725 459719
      458711 460708 461713 462716 466718 470717 472718 478720
      481721 485721 488722 490719 494715 496707 497698 498677
      500665 502655
 0.01 504872 501867 497865 494860 489863 481873 473881 463892
      456903 442925 436935 431947 426958 419971 413984 407997
      400010 395009 390013 372025 364034 355042 351045 345046
      340047 336047 329047 325048 320048 319051 320058 319062
      317065 316067 313068 311070 307070 297072 291070 284069
      278069 272067 260062 254060 249057 238050 231048 228051
      228055 225061 227067 231076 237084 247093 252097 257101
      262105 269109 274111 280111 286109 290108 293111 298116
      303118 308119 313118 326116 329115 332116 335121 340133
      342136 346138 353140 364138 368138 370136 376132 391117
      404114 399108 389113 385113 381115 375118 369119 363116
      360115 358113 353108 352105 352102 354095 358092 364092
      368091 371091 373089 376091 377098 381099 383097 387095
      392095 401090 405089 407091 410091 411088 416069 420064
      425060 427054 426049 422043 418040 418034 417029 416029
      413027 414023 417017 422004 426997 429992 437978 440973
      443967 450958 453953 456947 464936 479912 493889 499881
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 419779 417769 416767 415762
      414755 414748 415741 413735 408735 403745 398756 395770
      393776 391780 388785 383788 379793 376797 372802 369807
      365811 363815 360819 357825 355830 353836 355839 357839
      362837 367838 373837 377835 379832 383832 385836 386840
      386850 383863 374886 372891 369896 365902 362907 360912
      357916 352927 351933 348939 349946 350947 354947 358946
      363943 366941 370936 382914 387906 392895 399883 401878
      402871 406860 412850 416845 418839 422827 424810 424802
      425796
 0.01 379741 377725 376715 373710 369705 362705 358700 354697
      349698 346703 347720 345725 341731 336736 333740 325747
      317755 309765 300773 291780 289782 285782 278783 272782
      266780 259780 253783 250786 247790 240799 237803 235806
      236809 239816 238822 241826 241830 239836 240840 242842
      254847 260848 267848 272850 277852 280855 287856 295856
      298861 302867 306869 311859 313854 314851 316849 320847
      323847 329848 332848 335846 339841 345833 349827 351822
      354817 355809 357794 360790 363784 365779 371780 376780
      377772 378755 378748 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307923 303909 296902 291899 286900 284902
      284905 286910 288912 288916 284919 280922 274925 263929
      252933 246933 243937 239942 237947 237951 235954 235957
      237959 240971 244975 248978 256985 260988 266991 273991
      278989 286981 292973 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551875 549867 547864 543864 539870 536876
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517935 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 531188 524170 520162 513159 503156 499156 496159
      493166 492172 493176 495179 496185 497191 496195 490198
      483200 471210 465214 464218 465222 466227 466233 465237
      466242 469248 475254 482260 488267 498279 501282 505285
      508285 511284 516278 518273 518268 516257 513247 510240
      507231 505221 503210 501207 502202 505200 509202 517206
      524212 528214 532213 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 406059 402055 392048 387046 381047 369048
      365049 363051 363054 365056 371055 379057 380060 378062
      374066 374073 376076 379077 384075 387073 390074 395078
      399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 367739 365734 363730 363722 360718 358717 355718
      354723 352728 349736 342742 329755 303779 289790 287794
      287801 288804 285805 281804 273803 263802 257802 252804
      245809 243813 243818 245829 245833 247837 251839 257839
      275842 286843 294843 299841 302838 308833 321819 326812
      333808 339801 344792 348785 354778 363761 366754 367746
 0.25 346094 347087 346081 343078 338078 328081 323091 320093
      317090 314088 311088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317101
      321097 324094 329093 333095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293088 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 251082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 282094
      287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259971 259974 262976 268977 273977 277976
      283970 288963 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505163 502168 500175 502181 505190 512197 518203 521205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516268 515262 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      494206 488204 485205 478208 474211 472216 472221 475225
      477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250 485250
      488247 490240 496247 503254 503259 502264 502270 503276
      506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 341755 333758 327762 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332798 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 312819 309816 302813 287812 281809 274807 266807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 249833 253836
      260837 275840 282841 292840 299838 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 303822 296823 286821 277816 273814 268813
      258813 256814 254816 254820 255822 255830 259832 264834
      275836 286835 292836 299834 302832 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 298828 296827 291827 287827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 300800
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 65 NW KEY 60 W APF 45 WSW PGD 40 W PGD PGD RSW
35 SE APF 50 W TMB 20 W HST 10 NW HWO BCT 15 ESE FLL 25 E HST
40 ENE MTH 25 SSE MTH 30 SSW MTH 40 SSW KEY 40 SW KEY.


SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS


WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300800
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 65 NW KEY 60 W APF 45 WSW PGD 40 W PGD PGD RSW
35 SE APF 50 W TMB 20 W HST 10 NW HWO BCT 15 ESE FLL 25 E HST
40 ENE MTH 25 SSE MTH 30 SSW MTH 40 SSW KEY 40 SW KEY.


SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS


WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300800
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 65 NW KEY 60 W APF 45 WSW PGD 40 W PGD PGD RSW
35 SE APF 50 W TMB 20 W HST 10 NW HWO BCT 15 ESE FLL 25 E HST
40 ENE MTH 25 SSE MTH 30 SSW MTH 40 SSW KEY 40 SW KEY.


SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS


WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 300800
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E NRB 10 NW SGJ 10 NW VQQ 30 WNW JAX 30 ESE AYS 25 ESE JYL
40 WSW MYR 15 SW MYR 45 E CHS 65 SSE CHS 75 SE HXD 35 E NRB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SW KEY 65 NW KEY 60 W APF 45 WSW PGD 40 W PGD PGD RSW
35 SE APF 50 W TMB 20 W HST 10 NW HWO BCT 15 ESE FLL 25 E HST
40 ENE MTH 25 SSE MTH 30 SSW MTH 40 SSW KEY 40 SW KEY.


SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL REGIONS


WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND AHEAD OF ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS---THERE IS A DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO
ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF FLORIDA---INCLUDING THE KEYS.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALSO ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FROM FAR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH
COASTAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.   SEPARATE
FROM ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA---HIGH PW
VALUES AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE
IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT
LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND.  WPC DID LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 300655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562888 559871 560855 559845 557839 554833 550830
      545830 542831 541833 535842 532848 529851 506893 500903
      497908 493912 485919 482922 479929 475940 474947 474952
      475955 477960 477964 477974 477984 479989 480993 479997
      475010 471024 470041 471047 473054 476059 482060 488055
      495046 509027 515019 518014 521007 533987 542965 552939
      553931 554929 557929 560930 561927 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520254 516241 511231 513226 514216 515213
      517214 519220 519223 521226 525231 530232 532227 537213
      538209 539199 538191 536185 531176 526164 521154 510149
      492137 488135 485131 476129 479135 484138 487141 488147
      489151 488155 485161 482178 479190 472198 466208 457213
      452220 453226 454233 451235 446237 442237 442239 443245
      446250 448254 450259 454265 459275 466284 470287 474285
      481280 483280 484284 486290 490302 497308 502309 506303
      511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501643 499631 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 469669 469679 466687 462701 460705 458703 456699
      453698 448702 443708 441709 439713 439717 441720 438726
      437730 438734 440736 444735 449729 453728 454725 459719
      458710 459707 460709 462715 465718 469717 472718 479720
      481721 486720 488722 490719 494715 497707 497697 498677
      500664 502655
 0.01 504872 501868 497864 493860 489864 471884 463893 457902
      442925 430949 424961 417975 412986 409993 405999 399010
      395009 390013 371026 363035 353044 341047 333047 329046
      327048 320048 318051 321059 317065 316067 313068 311070
      307070 302071 295072 268066 257062 247055 235049 230049
      228055 225060 227067 232077 239086 250095 259102 267108
      272111 280111 287109 291108 293111 297115 303118 308119
      311118 316118 323118 329115 334117 337124 342136 349139
      357140 368138 376132 384124 388120 394117 405114 401110
      398108 396110 386113 375118 372119 368119 361116 353108
      352102 354095 359092 363092 366091 370091 373090 375090
      376092 377096 378099 381099 386096 388095 390096 395093
      401090 404089 407091 410091 411089 412087 413083 414075
      416069 420065 425060 427053 425048 422043 416038 417035
      418030 413026 419011 425998 437978 493889 496885 499880
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 418777 417769 415765 415761
      414755 414748 415741 413735 411734 408735 402746 399751
      398756 395770 393776 391781 387786 382790 379793 376797
      372801 369807 365811 362816 359821 356827 353836 356839
      360839 362837 367838 373837 378833 381832 385834 386849
      383863 374887 369896 366902 362907 360912 357916 352927
      348940 348945 350947 354947 358946 364943 371934 376924
      382914 387905 394893 399884 401878 402871 404865 407860
      413849 416844 418838 422827 424810 424802 425796
 0.01 379741 377723 375714 371709 368705 365705 362704 358700
      354697 349698 346703 347722 341732 337735 333740 324747
      320752 316757 309766 300773 291780 288782 284782 276782
      271781 266780 260780 253783 250786 246791 239800 236805
      237810 239815 238822 241826 240832 240838 244842 253846
      259848 267848 272850 277853 283855 289856 296857 298861
      301866 306869 311858 313853 318848 324847 331848 335846
      339841 346831 349827 352820 354816 355808 357794 360790
      363783 367779 373781 376779 377772 378755 378747 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307922 303909 295901 291899 286900 284902
      284906 286911 288913 288916 284919 279922 274925 263929
      251933 246933 243937 239942 237948 235954 235957 237959
      241972 244975 248978 257986 266991 273991 279989 286981
      290977 292972 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551874 549867 547864 543865 539870 536877
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517936 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 530186 524170 519162 516160 511158 503156 499156
      496159 492167 492172 494177 497186 496195 490198 482201
      471210 465214 464218 465223 466242 469249 476255 482260
      488267 498279 505285 508285 511284 514281 516277 518272
      518266 516257 513247 510240 507229 505221 503210 501207
      502202 506201 511202 517206 524212 529214 533212 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 405058 402055 397052 392048 386046 381047
      369048 365049 363051 363054 365056 372055 379057 380060
      378062 374066 375073 376076 379077 385074 387073 390074
      395078 399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 362720 359717 357717 355719 354723 352728 351733
      349736 341744 329755 303779 296785 289791 287795 287801
      288804 286805 281804 272803 261802 256802 252804 245809
      243813 243819 245830 245833 248837 251839 257839 276842
      286843 294843 299841 303838 309831 321819 326812 334807
      339801 344792 349785 354777 363761 366753 367746
 0.25 346094 347086 346081 342078 338078 328081 323091 319093
      317090 314088 310088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317100
      321097 325094 329093 334095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293087 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 252082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 278095
      282094 287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259972 259974 263976 268977 274977 277976
      283970 288963 290959 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505164 502168 501175 502181 505190 512197 518203 522205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516267 515261 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      496208 493206 488204 485205 477209 474211 472216 472221
      476225 477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250
      486250 488247 490240 496247 503254 503260 502265 502269
      503276 506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 340755 333758 326763 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332797 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 311819 309816 302813 287812 280809 274807 265807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 250834 253836
      260837 275840 283841 292840 299837 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 302822 296823 286821 277816 268813 258813
      256814 254820 255823 255830 259833 264834 275836 286835
      293836 299834 302831 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 297827 295827 291827 286827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562888 559871 560855 559845 557839 554833 550830
      545830 542831 541833 535842 532848 529851 506893 500903
      497908 493912 485919 482922 479929 475940 474947 474952
      475955 477960 477964 477974 477984 479989 480993 479997
      475010 471024 470041 471047 473054 476059 482060 488055
      495046 509027 515019 518014 521007 533987 542965 552939
      553931 554929 557929 560930 561927 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520254 516241 511231 513226 514216 515213
      517214 519220 519223 521226 525231 530232 532227 537213
      538209 539199 538191 536185 531176 526164 521154 510149
      492137 488135 485131 476129 479135 484138 487141 488147
      489151 488155 485161 482178 479190 472198 466208 457213
      452220 453226 454233 451235 446237 442237 442239 443245
      446250 448254 450259 454265 459275 466284 470287 474285
      481280 483280 484284 486290 490302 497308 502309 506303
      511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501643 499631 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 469669 469679 466687 462701 460705 458703 456699
      453698 448702 443708 441709 439713 439717 441720 438726
      437730 438734 440736 444735 449729 453728 454725 459719
      458710 459707 460709 462715 465718 469717 472718 479720
      481721 486720 488722 490719 494715 497707 497697 498677
      500664 502655
 0.01 504872 501868 497864 493860 489864 471884 463893 457902
      442925 430949 424961 417975 412986 409993 405999 399010
      395009 390013 371026 363035 353044 341047 333047 329046
      327048 320048 318051 321059 317065 316067 313068 311070
      307070 302071 295072 268066 257062 247055 235049 230049
      228055 225060 227067 232077 239086 250095 259102 267108
      272111 280111 287109 291108 293111 297115 303118 308119
      311118 316118 323118 329115 334117 337124 342136 349139
      357140 368138 376132 384124 388120 394117 405114 401110
      398108 396110 386113 375118 372119 368119 361116 353108
      352102 354095 359092 363092 366091 370091 373090 375090
      376092 377096 378099 381099 386096 388095 390096 395093
      401090 404089 407091 410091 411089 412087 413083 414075
      416069 420065 425060 427053 425048 422043 416038 417035
      418030 413026 419011 425998 437978 493889 496885 499880
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 418777 417769 415765 415761
      414755 414748 415741 413735 411734 408735 402746 399751
      398756 395770 393776 391781 387786 382790 379793 376797
      372801 369807 365811 362816 359821 356827 353836 356839
      360839 362837 367838 373837 378833 381832 385834 386849
      383863 374887 369896 366902 362907 360912 357916 352927
      348940 348945 350947 354947 358946 364943 371934 376924
      382914 387905 394893 399884 401878 402871 404865 407860
      413849 416844 418838 422827 424810 424802 425796
 0.01 379741 377723 375714 371709 368705 365705 362704 358700
      354697 349698 346703 347722 341732 337735 333740 324747
      320752 316757 309766 300773 291780 288782 284782 276782
      271781 266780 260780 253783 250786 246791 239800 236805
      237810 239815 238822 241826 240832 240838 244842 253846
      259848 267848 272850 277853 283855 289856 296857 298861
      301866 306869 311858 313853 318848 324847 331848 335846
      339841 346831 349827 352820 354816 355808 357794 360790
      363783 367779 373781 376779 377772 378755 378747 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307922 303909 295901 291899 286900 284902
      284906 286911 288913 288916 284919 279922 274925 263929
      251933 246933 243937 239942 237948 235954 235957 237959
      241972 244975 248978 257986 266991 273991 279989 286981
      290977 292972 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551874 549867 547864 543865 539870 536877
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517936 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 530186 524170 519162 516160 511158 503156 499156
      496159 492167 492172 494177 497186 496195 490198 482201
      471210 465214 464218 465223 466242 469249 476255 482260
      488267 498279 505285 508285 511284 514281 516277 518272
      518266 516257 513247 510240 507229 505221 503210 501207
      502202 506201 511202 517206 524212 529214 533212 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 405058 402055 397052 392048 386046 381047
      369048 365049 363051 363054 365056 372055 379057 380060
      378062 374066 375073 376076 379077 385074 387073 390074
      395078 399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 362720 359717 357717 355719 354723 352728 351733
      349736 341744 329755 303779 296785 289791 287795 287801
      288804 286805 281804 272803 261802 256802 252804 245809
      243813 243819 245830 245833 248837 251839 257839 276842
      286843 294843 299841 303838 309831 321819 326812 334807
      339801 344792 349785 354777 363761 366753 367746
 0.25 346094 347086 346081 342078 338078 328081 323091 319093
      317090 314088 310088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317100
      321097 325094 329093 334095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293087 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 252082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 278095
      282094 287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259972 259974 263976 268977 274977 277976
      283970 288963 290959 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505164 502168 501175 502181 505190 512197 518203 522205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516267 515261 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      496208 493206 488204 485205 477209 474211 472216 472221
      476225 477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250
      486250 488247 490240 496247 503254 503260 502265 502269
      503276 506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 340755 333758 326763 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332797 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 311819 309816 302813 287812 280809 274807 265807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 250834 253836
      260837 275840 283841 292840 299837 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 302822 296823 286821 277816 268813 258813
      256814 254820 255823 255830 259833 264834 275836 286835
      293836 299834 302831 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 297827 295827 291827 286827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 300655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562888 559871 560855 559845 557839 554833 550830
      545830 542831 541833 535842 532848 529851 506893 500903
      497908 493912 485919 482922 479929 475940 474947 474952
      475955 477960 477964 477974 477984 479989 480993 479997
      475010 471024 470041 471047 473054 476059 482060 488055
      495046 509027 515019 518014 521007 533987 542965 552939
      553931 554929 557929 560930 561927 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520254 516241 511231 513226 514216 515213
      517214 519220 519223 521226 525231 530232 532227 537213
      538209 539199 538191 536185 531176 526164 521154 510149
      492137 488135 485131 476129 479135 484138 487141 488147
      489151 488155 485161 482178 479190 472198 466208 457213
      452220 453226 454233 451235 446237 442237 442239 443245
      446250 448254 450259 454265 459275 466284 470287 474285
      481280 483280 484284 486290 490302 497308 502309 506303
      511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501643 499631 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 469669 469679 466687 462701 460705 458703 456699
      453698 448702 443708 441709 439713 439717 441720 438726
      437730 438734 440736 444735 449729 453728 454725 459719
      458710 459707 460709 462715 465718 469717 472718 479720
      481721 486720 488722 490719 494715 497707 497697 498677
      500664 502655
 0.01 504872 501868 497864 493860 489864 471884 463893 457902
      442925 430949 424961 417975 412986 409993 405999 399010
      395009 390013 371026 363035 353044 341047 333047 329046
      327048 320048 318051 321059 317065 316067 313068 311070
      307070 302071 295072 268066 257062 247055 235049 230049
      228055 225060 227067 232077 239086 250095 259102 267108
      272111 280111 287109 291108 293111 297115 303118 308119
      311118 316118 323118 329115 334117 337124 342136 349139
      357140 368138 376132 384124 388120 394117 405114 401110
      398108 396110 386113 375118 372119 368119 361116 353108
      352102 354095 359092 363092 366091 370091 373090 375090
      376092 377096 378099 381099 386096 388095 390096 395093
      401090 404089 407091 410091 411089 412087 413083 414075
      416069 420065 425060 427053 425048 422043 416038 417035
      418030 413026 419011 425998 437978 493889 496885 499880
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 418777 417769 415765 415761
      414755 414748 415741 413735 411734 408735 402746 399751
      398756 395770 393776 391781 387786 382790 379793 376797
      372801 369807 365811 362816 359821 356827 353836 356839
      360839 362837 367838 373837 378833 381832 385834 386849
      383863 374887 369896 366902 362907 360912 357916 352927
      348940 348945 350947 354947 358946 364943 371934 376924
      382914 387905 394893 399884 401878 402871 404865 407860
      413849 416844 418838 422827 424810 424802 425796
 0.01 379741 377723 375714 371709 368705 365705 362704 358700
      354697 349698 346703 347722 341732 337735 333740 324747
      320752 316757 309766 300773 291780 288782 284782 276782
      271781 266780 260780 253783 250786 246791 239800 236805
      237810 239815 238822 241826 240832 240838 244842 253846
      259848 267848 272850 277853 283855 289856 296857 298861
      301866 306869 311858 313853 318848 324847 331848 335846
      339841 346831 349827 352820 354816 355808 357794 360790
      363783 367779 373781 376779 377772 378755 378747 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307922 303909 295901 291899 286900 284902
      284906 286911 288913 288916 284919 279922 274925 263929
      251933 246933 243937 239942 237948 235954 235957 237959
      241972 244975 248978 257986 266991 273991 279989 286981
      290977 292972 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551874 549867 547864 543865 539870 536877
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517936 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 530186 524170 519162 516160 511158 503156 499156
      496159 492167 492172 494177 497186 496195 490198 482201
      471210 465214 464218 465223 466242 469249 476255 482260
      488267 498279 505285 508285 511284 514281 516277 518272
      518266 516257 513247 510240 507229 505221 503210 501207
      502202 506201 511202 517206 524212 529214 533212 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 405058 402055 397052 392048 386046 381047
      369048 365049 363051 363054 365056 372055 379057 380060
      378062 374066 375073 376076 379077 385074 387073 390074
      395078 399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 362720 359717 357717 355719 354723 352728 351733
      349736 341744 329755 303779 296785 289791 287795 287801
      288804 286805 281804 272803 261802 256802 252804 245809
      243813 243819 245830 245833 248837 251839 257839 276842
      286843 294843 299841 303838 309831 321819 326812 334807
      339801 344792 349785 354777 363761 366753 367746
 0.25 346094 347086 346081 342078 338078 328081 323091 319093
      317090 314088 310088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317100
      321097 325094 329093 334095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293087 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 252082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 278095
      282094 287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259972 259974 263976 268977 274977 277976
      283970 288963 290959 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505164 502168 501175 502181 505190 512197 518203 522205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516267 515261 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      496208 493206 488204 485205 477209 474211 472216 472221
      476225 477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250
      486250 488247 490240 496247 503254 503260 502265 502269
      503276 506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 340755 333758 326763 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332797 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 311819 309816 302813 287812 280809 274807 265807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 250834 253836
      260837 275840 283841 292840 299837 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 302822 296823 286821 277816 268813 258813
      256814 254820 255823 255830 259833 264834 275836 286835
      293836 299834 302831 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 297827 295827 291827 286827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 300655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH DAYS 2/3...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT LARGELY CONTROLLING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THUS...GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...RELIED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHEST RESOLVING
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF
MEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AND CASCADES.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE IN LARGE PART FROM THE TERRAIN WILL
CONTRIBUTE IN LARGE PART TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION WILL FORM THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS THE MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODEST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTALS.

TEXAS COAST...

OTHER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH LIED NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL
REPRESENTATION PROVIDING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BOTH
DAYS...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS
USED TO DERIVE THE FINAL VALUES...WITH THE LITTLE OR NO 12Z ECMWF
USED.

SOUTHEAST...

DESPITE ERIKA HAVING WEAKENED...A FORMIDABLE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
REMNANTS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PATH OF ERIKA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY MODULATED BY NOCTURNAL FLAIR UPS AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL QPF`S WERE USED JUST A
GUIDE...WITH LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND/FORCING PROFILES
FROM THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF RELIED UPON MORE...ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA SHOWING HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN EXTENDING THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS...WITH THESE PERSPECTIVES AND CONTINUITY
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD SAVANNAH.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN REPRESENT THE STRONGER AND HEAVIER SIDES OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE NOT PREFERRED AT THIS TIME...THESE SOLUTIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF DECREASES ONCE
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXITS THE REGION AND THE
REMNANTS TRAVERSE THE VERY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 564905 562888 559871 560855 559845 557839 554833 550830
      545830 542831 541833 535842 532848 529851 506893 500903
      497908 493912 485919 482922 479929 475940 474947 474952
      475955 477960 477964 477974 477984 479989 480993 479997
      475010 471024 470041 471047 473054 476059 482060 488055
      495046 509027 515019 518014 521007 533987 542965 552939
      553931 554929 557929 560930 561927 562922 564905
 0.01 521269 522260 520254 516241 511231 513226 514216 515213
      517214 519220 519223 521226 525231 530232 532227 537213
      538209 539199 538191 536185 531176 526164 521154 510149
      492137 488135 485131 476129 479135 484138 487141 488147
      489151 488155 485161 482178 479190 472198 466208 457213
      452220 453226 454233 451235 446237 442237 442239 443245
      446250 448254 450259 454265 459275 466284 470287 474285
      481280 483280 484284 486290 490302 497308 502309 506303
      511294 516282
 0.01 502655 501643 499631 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 469669 469679 466687 462701 460705 458703 456699
      453698 448702 443708 441709 439713 439717 441720 438726
      437730 438734 440736 444735 449729 453728 454725 459719
      458710 459707 460709 462715 465718 469717 472718 479720
      481721 486720 488722 490719 494715 497707 497697 498677
      500664 502655
 0.01 504872 501868 497864 493860 489864 471884 463893 457902
      442925 430949 424961 417975 412986 409993 405999 399010
      395009 390013 371026 363035 353044 341047 333047 329046
      327048 320048 318051 321059 317065 316067 313068 311070
      307070 302071 295072 268066 257062 247055 235049 230049
      228055 225060 227067 232077 239086 250095 259102 267108
      272111 280111 287109 291108 293111 297115 303118 308119
      311118 316118 323118 329115 334117 337124 342136 349139
      357140 368138 376132 384124 388120 394117 405114 401110
      398108 396110 386113 375118 372119 368119 361116 353108
      352102 354095 359092 363092 366091 370091 373090 375090
      376092 377096 378099 381099 386096 388095 390096 395093
      401090 404089 407091 410091 411089 412087 413083 414075
      416069 420065 425060 427053 425048 422043 416038 417035
      418030 413026 419011 425998 437978 493889 496885 499880
      504872
 0.01 425796 424787 424784 422782 418777 417769 415765 415761
      414755 414748 415741 413735 411734 408735 402746 399751
      398756 395770 393776 391781 387786 382790 379793 376797
      372801 369807 365811 362816 359821 356827 353836 356839
      360839 362837 367838 373837 378833 381832 385834 386849
      383863 374887 369896 366902 362907 360912 357916 352927
      348940 348945 350947 354947 358946 364943 371934 376924
      382914 387905 394893 399884 401878 402871 404865 407860
      413849 416844 418838 422827 424810 424802 425796
 0.01 379741 377723 375714 371709 368705 365705 362704 358700
      354697 349698 346703 347722 341732 337735 333740 324747
      320752 316757 309766 300773 291780 288782 284782 276782
      271781 266780 260780 253783 250786 246791 239800 236805
      237810 239815 238822 241826 240832 240838 244842 253846
      259848 267848 272850 277853 283855 289856 296857 298861
      301866 306869 311858 313853 318848 324847 331848 335846
      339841 346831 349827 352820 354816 355808 357794 360790
      363783 367779 373781 376779 377772 378755 378747 379741
 0.01 307939 307931 307922 303909 295901 291899 286900 284902
      284906 286911 288913 288916 284919 279922 274925 263929
      251933 246933 243937 239942 237948 235954 235957 237959
      241972 244975 248978 257986 266991 273991 279989 286981
      290977 292972 298962 307939
 0.25 551887 552881 551874 549867 547864 543865 539870 536877
      533883 528899 523913 517929 517936 520937 522936 529923
      532917 536912 545901 548895 551888 551887
 0.25 536204 530186 524170 519162 516160 511158 503156 499156
      496159 492167 492172 494177 497186 496195 490198 482201
      471210 465214 464218 465223 466242 469249 476255 482260
      488267 498279 505285 508285 511284 514281 516277 518272
      518266 516257 513247 510240 507229 505221 503210 501207
      502202 506201 511202 517206 524212 529214 533212 536204
 0.25 408065 407061 405058 402055 397052 392048 386046 381047
      369048 365049 363051 363054 365056 372055 379057 380060
      378062 374066 375073 376076 379077 385074 387073 390074
      395078 399078 401076 408065
 0.25 367746 362720 359717 357717 355719 354723 352728 351733
      349736 341744 329755 303779 296785 289791 287795 287801
      288804 286805 281804 272803 261802 256802 252804 245809
      243813 243819 245830 245833 248837 251839 257839 276842
      286843 294843 299841 303838 309831 321819 326812 334807
      339801 344792 349785 354777 363761 366753 367746
 0.25 346094 347086 346081 342078 338078 328081 323091 319093
      317090 314088 310088 306091 302094 305100 312103 317100
      321097 325094 329093 334095 340097 344096 346094
 0.25 293092 293087 291083 283078 274076 265073 256071 252072
      251077 252082 253085 260092 267097 270098 274098 278095
      282094 287095 291094 293092
 0.25 292952 292947 288944 286943 281945 276950 270958 266964
      265970 262970 259972 259974 263976 268977 274977 277976
      283970 288963 290959 292954 292952
 0.50 530205 531197 529192 527182 522173 518165 513163 508162
      505164 502168 501175 502181 505190 512197 518203 522205
      526207 530205
 0.50 540896 541893 540891 539893 538893 537896 536899 536901
      537901 539899 539898 540896 540896
 0.50 516272 516267 515261 512252 508243 505232 503222 499211
      496208 493206 488204 485205 477209 474211 472216 472221
      476225 477230 474232 472236 472241 475245 479248 482250
      486250 488247 490240 496247 503254 503260 502265 502269
      503276 506278 511279 514277 516272
 0.50 374053 374052 372052 371052 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 345776 343761 342757 340755 333758 326763 321767 310777
      300785 295790 293794 293799 296805 302810 309812 312812
      316811 327803 332797 337791 344779 345776
 0.50 311824 311819 309816 302813 287812 280809 274807 265807
      258807 251810 247815 247819 248823 248831 250834 253836
      260837 275840 283841 292840 299837 304833 309828 311824
 0.50 285958 285954 283953 281954 279956 277958 275960 273962
      272964 272968 274969 276968 279966 281964 283962 284960
      285958
 1.00 523192 524187 522184 521181 520179 518176 517174 514172
      511171 509172 508177 508180 509183 512186 514188 516190
      518192 521193 523192
 1.00 511265 511263 511260 509259 509262 508264 509265 510267
      511265
 1.00 504239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500233 498234 498237
      498240 499241 499243 500243 501243 502243 503241 504241
      504239
 1.00 496226 497221 497218 495215 493212 491210 488209 484209
      483210 480211 478213 478218 480219 483221 486222 487224
      491226 494227 496226
 1.00 480241 481239 481236 479235 477235 476238 477239 477240
      478242 480242 480241
 1.00 332783 332779 330776 327775 322775 317779 312784 306788
      301793 301800 304803 307805 313805 320801 325797 329790
      332783 332783
 1.00 306825 305822 302822 296823 286821 277816 268813 258813
      256814 254820 255823 255830 259833 264834 275836 286835
      293836 299834 302831 305827 306825
 1.50 489218 490216 489215 487214 485213 484213 482214 483216
      484217 485218 487218 488218 489218
 1.50 326788 325786 323783 320784 318786 316787 314790 311792
      310794 310797 310799 313800 315800 318799 320797 323795
      324793 325790 326788
 1.50 297830 297827 295827 291827 286827 284825 279821 273817
      266816 262817 260819 260825 261829 265831 273832 279832
      286831 295831 297830
 2.00 321791 320791 319791 320791 321791
 2.00 279825 278823 276821 273820 270819 267818 266819 263821
      265824 267826 270826 272827 275828 277828 279825

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 538216 539207 540199 539194 537181 533171 524155 521149
      518145 512139 508135 505136 502137 500138 498136 489134
      484133 482133 482138 483143 485147 486152 484155 481158
      479164 479170 481175 483187 482194 481200 472203 465206
      462211 459213 453217 448224 449227 447231 445233 441238
      440242 437248 436252 431263 427274 431277 435276 440271
      447264 455259 469254 472255 474257 478261 482270 486290
      488296 491300 499303 507299 513290 523262 524259 524257
      525255 526252 526249 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238
      531235 532233 533231 533230 534228 535225 536223
 0.01 498868 497864 495861 491861 484869 482872 481874 479871
      481862 482855 485849 490835 491828 488823 485818 482816
      479815 475816 472816 472811 475797 476790 474785 472783
      469783 465784 463786 456798 452811 450825 449842 449851
      451853 451857 450873 451882 452888 455894 459900 463903
      466905 467908 471913 476911 483903 483909 480917 477932
      474948 469960 466967 464975 460981 458986 455993 455999
      458003 463003 467998 475997 479994 483989 490979 494967
      496959 497948 498939 498929 497917 496910 495906 494904
      491901 486902 484901 485897 493884 496876 498868
 0.01 443103 443099 442098 438095 433094 429095 420095 412089
      410085 410081 412079 418073 424065 423060 420057 415056
      412055 411052 407051 405050 404047 404043 406040 412035
      422032 429028 436020 439015 438012 431004 427003 423004
      414005 406007 389013 370020 317062 315067 311070 307072
      302072 287074 282075 276075 270073 266071 248061 236047
      230045 226050 228061 233069 244083 251089 258095 264100
      270104 273108 279110 289114 292113 297114 306112 317110
      322111 326109 333114 339120 341122 345120 346115 344111
      341107 341102 347093 351090 357089 362090 366088 366084
      368082 371083 374085 377087 381097 384101 384106 383111
      380116 376120 374125 376130 380129 386125 392120 399116
      406113 410111 416112 419116 423119 425120 428118 431114
      436107 443103
 0.01 440964 440958 437952 430946 424946 419947 413948 409951
      402959 396967 394972 394979 398982 403983 407981 412978
      421973 426973 430970 435969 439966 440964
 0.01 420804 420792 419783 416780 413778 406780 394789 390791
      385792 379796 374801 370802 369804 360816 357823 354830
      354835 355841 358841 361839 364824 369817 374812 385816
      392812 398807 400808 401811 402816 402821 400824 398831
      398844 399850 401853 401863 402874 405882 413882 416877
      418874 418868 417856 415847 413844 414840 417830 418823
      420804
 0.01 385997 385992 384990 381992 378992 375994 371994 367998
      365001 365007 369010 372006 376004 378001 382999 385997
 0.01 365721 364715 360713 356711 352713 334723 319735 312744
      307752 305762 302771 300783 297792 294798 290800 285800
      283798 273793 270790 265789 262792 261797 252800 245808
      244813 243819 246824 249828 254834 262840 270844 280846
      285847 290847 296847 300846 305846 309848 314847 319845
      325840 338825 344817 348809 355788 359779 362770 366757
      365746 364740 366735 365726 365721
 0.01 316949 316939 316930 315926 313924 310922 308924 305925
      304922 301916 296912 293910 290909 286914 283916 279914
      276913 274910 273902 271897 271892 265892 263894 258893
      254895 249901 247905 244913 242921 242929 242937 244946
      248952 253955 253964 253969 255972 258978 273980 267985
      265988 266991 275992 281990 293984 299980 303976 310963
      316949
 0.25 534206 535201 534198 531189 528185 525177 523170 519163
      509156 503156 498161 495167 494174 496181 501186 511195
      516199 518207 520210 520216 520218 522216 528215 533211
      534206
 0.25 518268 519261 518257 516250 516243 518232 518227 519223
      519219 517217 511216 507214 501212 498209 494206 490205
      481207 474209 467214 459219 455221 455226 463231 470239
      473242 478245 484246 487249 493257 496269 498279 502285
      505287 509286 512284 517273 518268
 0.25 489962 490954 490947 489942 485942 482947 481952 480957
      479963 479967 481972 484972 487969 489963 489962
 0.25 461240 460239 458239 456240 455241 456241 457242 458242
      459240 461240 461240
 0.25 426961 425956 423955 419955 417956 414959 412960 410963
      410966 412967 416966 417966 421964 423963 426961
 0.25 395076 396073 394071 390070 388070 385067 382065 377064
      375069 378073 381076 384077 388075 391075 395076 395076
 0.25 345748 344743 342740 339739 336740 328742 321748 319755
      318762 317772 314778 308791 304798 300804 294808 287808
      281804 274802 266801 260803 258805 261807 265808 266812
      268816 267821 264825 263830 265833 271837 283840 294840
      303839 310835 314832 320827 325822 329815 330808 335792
      334784 334780 335777 342764 344756 345748
 0.25 288089 289087 288086 287085 286084 284084 283084 281084
      279083 277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 275087 275088
      277089 278090 280090 282090 282091 284091 286091 288090
      288089
 0.25 287952 288943 285937 283936 279936 274939 270941 268945
      268949 267956 268959 270962 274965 277965 280964 284960
      286954 287952
 0.25 267931 267925 266921 264915 262912 259913 255917 254921
      254927 255933 258935 261938 265936 266933 267931
 0.50 530199 526192 522185 519178 515171 509167 507167 505171
      508178 514184 519188 523196 524200 527202 530199
 0.50 514274 516268 516263 514253 512245 511236 508228 503221
      491213 483210 479210 476212 472216 472219 476221 479228
      486233 490238 493246 496249 498251 502253 502259 501265
      501271 503278 510281 513278 514274
 0.50 325816 322812 321806 320802 317798 313798 310800 302809
      296811 289811 276808 274810 274814 277820 279834 285836
      292837 299836 306833 316827 321823 325817 325816
 0.50 274805 272804 271804 270803 269803 267804 265804 267804
      269804 270804 272806 274806 274805
 1.00 503239 504236 503235 502233 501233 500234 499235 499236
      500237 501239 502239 503239
 1.00 487218 487217 485216 483216 482216 480217 480218 480219
      481219 483220 484220 485219 487218 487218
 1.00 318821 316818 315815 314811 310811 303816 293815 284813
      282813 281816 283818 288825 290828 293830 298832 300831
      309827 316824 318821
 1.50 315822 310820 307820 301819 297819 294817 290816 286816
      288819 292822 295824 300825 304825 309825 312824 315822

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 300647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 300647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 300042
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 300042
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 300042
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 300042
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 30 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

HURLEY
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 292253
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
653 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


DAYS 2/3...


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL. THERE IS
SOME MODEL SPREAD IN HOW THE REMNANTS ARE HANDLED...AND HOW THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANTS AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS ON THE WEST COAST OF
FL (BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER).
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

DAY 2...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WAS DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF
THE FL DURING DAY 2 (BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS). OTHER
SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM...TAKE THE VORTICITY
CENTER FURTHER EAST...WHICH DEMONSTRATES THE MODEL SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS...AND RESULTS IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD REMAIN OFF
THE FL WEST COAST...BRINGING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF JUST OFFSHORE
FROM THE KEYS THROUGH KTPA. ALONG THIS AXIS...2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES
OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES...SO BASED ON THE WPC QPF THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED FROM THE FL KEYS
UP THROUGH THE FL WEST COAST TO KTPA. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE
TO BETTER DELINEATE THE THREAT AS THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS
BECOMES CLEARER.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSES HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SC. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
AXIS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF CONVECTION HERE...AND
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF FROM CENTRAL SC
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GA.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ALONG THIS STRIPE GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES. WHILE THE WPC QPF VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THE FLASH FLOOD NUMBERS...THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD ON THE
HIGHER END FROM THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE. FOR THIS
REASON...NO SLIGHT RISK ARE WAS ASSIGNED AT THIS TIME.

DAY 3...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
WEST OF FL DURING DAY 3...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FEED REMAINING
OFFSHORE. AS WAS THE CASE DURING DAY 2...THE HIGHEST QPF STRIPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KPAM TO
JUST EAST OF KTPA. ALONG THIS LINE...2.00 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
WAS PLACED...WITH LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS PLACED NEAR THE COAST.
THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS FOR LOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE...SO A SLIGHT RISK
WAS ASSIGNED TO THE FL WEST COAST IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA.


...WESTERN GULF STATES...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY THE END OF DAY 3. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
OVER THE GULF AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX...WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.

DAY 2...
CONVECTION FORMS AS THE TROUGH LOWERS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHEAST TX DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG IN STABILITY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF WAS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.

DAY 3...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRUNDLES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST...ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO FORM CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT
THE SAME AS DAY 2...BUT SINCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE COAST... A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX. A SMALL AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED NEAR KCRP...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

SHORT WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAST...SO THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PROBABLY KEEPS THE CONVECTION MAINLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WERE
PLACED OVER EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

DAY 3...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS CONVECTION ACROSS MN
BEFORE 02/06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OUTFLOW DRIVEN...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MOVING. AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF COVERING MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE STATE. IF SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...THESE HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ENCOUNTERS SHORT WAVES IN THE MID
LEVEL LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. FOR THE
MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...WITH SOME 12Z NAM USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN AZ...DROPPING OFF TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DUE PRIMARILY TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKIES IN CO. IN THIS AREA...AN AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH LOWERS AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ...CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IN THE
ROCKIES OF CO. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF
AMOUNTS...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

DAY 3...
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO DAY 2 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
DAY 3. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL ON DAY 3...SO
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH.
STILL...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TERRAIN...AND
LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF AMOUNT BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM AND MUCH
OF CO.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SHORT WAVES ROUNDING A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WA AND OR DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. WHILE THERE WAS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THERE
WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT CROSS WA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING WA/OR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2 PUSHES
A SURFACE FRONT TO THE COAST LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 20 TO 30
KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO THE WA/OR COASTS...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY...SO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN STRIPES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE
AND NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.

DAY 3...
THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY
DURING DAY 3...AHEAD OF A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO
EASTERN WA. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND UPSLOPE MAKE
THE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACED...WHICH PRODUCE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.


TERRY/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532198 528188 527185 527179 525169 515155 509151
      503147 495141 490136 484130 479127 475131 471128 470125
      467115 469110 473108 477101 481092 479083 476074 462070
      456076 453078 451075 444069 442067 439068 438071 437077
      437082 435087 429091 425097 425102 422105 419106 414106
      412106 409101 407098 405100 402103 399101 396098 398092
      403086 408080 413074 416068 418062 412058 404056 396055
      389055 379055 374054 372052 363052 359054 358061 354069
      350077 343079 334077 325076 318077 313077 309075 294068
      286069 280067 274064 268060 254053 250051 244051 240052
      235052 228054 227059 227063 231070 232074 235076 245086
      257093 265102 269108 272110 276112 281113 283116 286119
      292120 310127 316124 324123 349137 351141 354142 361139
      367135 372131 375128 378128 384123 389120 395118 399116
      405117 408119 407121 411122 416125 417129 416139 420142
      423141 427134 432130 435131 436134 438139 436143 431149
      429153 429156 431159 434158 439156 445153 448151 449156
      445162 443166 444172 448180 450184 452186 455185 458185
      459187 462190 466192 473193 469198 464203 455209 449212
      441211 437211 435215 430224 426230 419233 415234 412237
      409247 407253 409256 411260 415261 420263 423265 425268
      429270 435269 442266 447262 452260 459257 467260 470259
      473262 476265 477269 479291 481296 484299 488302 491300
      493298 495293 497288 498285 500286 505288 508289 513285
      516274 519262 520250 518239 516231 512223 509216 507213
      508209 509206 512202 519203 523208 529212 532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503642 500635 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484641 483645 481644 478641 478638 476628 473626 470627
      465632 463638 458654 457672 455681 454690 452696 451701
      452706 455715 457722 461721 464723 463733 466757 473769
      476770 478768 482764 489750 492743 493733 495725 496717
      497706 499698 501680 505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434783 433781 428779 427770 428762 426755
      424748 421743 418743 415748 410761 402781 398787 394791
      390796 386799 382803 376806 369813 361821 356825 353824
      353820 345799 344781 344773 346768 352757 355753 356747
      358735 354732 348734 339740 332747 327751 322755 313762
      309766 303769 294775 281777 270774 266771 261769 253765
      247762 242760 232755 220753 215755 212759 210764 211771
      211779 210784 213799 217808 221813 225817 231826 234831
      238835 242837 247839 257838 266844 283852 296856 301857
      309858 315858 320862 324872 329882 336891 345895 352895
      356897 365896 371898 373900 372902 368907 361915 353923
      339941 330945 326947 323952 328952 330954 333954 348954
      354954 357954 360952 365950 368947 371941 375936 383929
      390922 396915 404904 407899 410894 416884 421874 426862
      430852 432845 433837 434823 436816 437809 437801 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514254 514250 512240 511232 508224 501210 497205
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 455215 449215 442217
      437221 435227 439230 440229 440233 438236 433240 427243
      426247 428250 431256 433259 435259 442257 447253 452251
      459250 466250 474252 479256 485264 488270 490286 493279
      496278 500279 503280 506278 506273 505268 503261 503259
      505257 509261 513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 511191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483236 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 429821 427810 425805 422801 416797 413798 410801 407806
      406810 406823 405834 405841 409842 416840 423839 426836
      428831 429821
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 341821 340817 337812 333809 331803 331791 331784
      328779 326777 323778 317780 308786 299790 294792 288792
      276791 266789 261788 257787 250781 242773 235767 227763
      223763 218765 217770 218777 221789 224798 227809 230814
      232819 238827 243829 247830 253829 258827 265827 269828
      279831 284833 290832 302829 308831 312833 314835 312837
      307838 297836 291838 292843 296847 302848 308849 312847
      317847 321850 324854 326859 329871 332874 338874 341869
      342864 342857 341849 339835 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311094 308089 303084 297081 289080 283078
      277075 269073 262071 258071 256072 252073 251076 251080
      253083 262091 271100 282106 291108 299109 305107 310105
      313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504224 501215 496208 488205 481206 469211
      455217 447217 441219 438224 440226 447225 453225 453231
      450232 443237 439244 439250 442249 449248 457246 465245
      473247 478249 482251 486259 490267 492271 495274 499275
      502275 502270 501264 498256 494249 490241 485239 482240
      479233 471228 471225 472224 476224 483224 490229 494236
      499242 502248 505250 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335837 324808 326802 326799 325795 321793 315795 307797
      297798 287797 277795 260791 252788 246782 240776 234771
      230768 226767 222769 221772 222782 225792 228803 231812
      235820 241825 247825 251822 258817 266817 270818 274820
      283824 289823 292822 303820 312817 317818 319819 319826
      320831 323841 328848 331852 331856 333867 335866 336861
      335855 333850 335837
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263084 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 480210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 477218 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 447239 447241 449242 450243 451242 452242 454241
      455241 456240 458240 459240
 1.00 295809 283803 275802 270798 255796 250792 246786 240781
      235779 230779 228783 229793 232803 234810 239815 242816
      246815 252812 258808 265806 273807 279810 282811 286811
      295809
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564905 562885 559867 556853 553846 550839 544836 539837
      535843 532851 531857 529878 528884 526888 524893 521897
      511924 503926 500927 498929 493934 489942 486949 482954
      479960 477967 477980 476985 474988 470994 467999 466004
      463008 463018 464028 464036 467045 470051 471054 472057
      471060 466067 462071 457074 453075 450075 444075 442077
      444079 450083 458087 460092 461097 457111 462111 468108
      471107 473104 478096 483092 488086 490081 493073 495064
      497056 502050 506046 512041 518036 522033 526028 527024
      527020 522017 520014 522011 526005 534987 536981 539976
      544960 551940 553931 555928 558930 561928 563922 563910
      564905
 0.01 539211 540198 537186 531177 527166 522159 519155 515153
      506146 497141 491137 484130 478129 476130 479135 484138
      486141 488146 489152 487158 484162 484169 483178 482183
      480185 478191 476194 472198 470201 464209 459222 455230
      453237 450239 446260 447263 451265 458272 460278 464282
      467285 473288 477290 480289 488288 493288 496287 498289
      500294 502294 506295 509292 514284 517279 519273 521265
      521258 520246 519239 518235 515229 515226 517225 521226
      525230 527232 530230 534225
 0.01 502655 501645 499634 496622 491617 487616 480619 474624
      471633 470648 469669 469678 467685 464693 462701 461706
      458704 454698 451699 448702 443708 440711 439715 440719
      441720 440723 438727 437730 438734 440736 443735 448731
      454725 457719 459716 458711 460708 461712 462716 465717
      472718 478720 484721 488722 490719 494715 496707 497700
      498677 499665 502655
 0.01 473158 474148 473143 470142 462140 458140 455142 449145
      445150 444155 446158 450163 457165 462158 465157 470158
      473158
 0.01 428769 427765 426763 422763 417761 414759 414755 414750
      415744 414738 413735 410734 408735 402746 399751 397759
      396768 395773 393777 390776 387774 384772 380773 375775
      372776 370775 366773 365770 367768 369763 370757 367750
      363746 339746 334750 328755 323760 319765 232796 229800
      228807 229820 230827 232833 235837 239841 241843 244844
      249848 258856 267865 272869 276877 277879 278883 278890
      277897 274901 268909 261920 259925 257929 255930 252932
      248933 244936 239941 237948 235956 233959 231965 232970
      234976 238979 250983 252984 252988 253994 257000 260002
      263003 275999 280997 285993 292981 297972 303961 309950
      314941 317935 319932 320928 319920 317914 316911 315907
      313901 316897 321893 325887 327883 330878 338871 343869
      344867 347869 350875 352878 351883 350891 347899 347903
      346907 341914 335925 332930 330937 330941 328943 328949
      333951 337954 345949 355942 365935 370929 372924 380913
      387899 389893 392888 392881 393873 394866 398860 403850
      406845 411840 414835 417828 423815 424807 425802 426796
      428769
 0.01 427053 425048 422043 416039 418032 417029 413028 411026
      407026 402025 399027 396027 393029 389034 387040 384043
      380043 373042 368039 360037 357039 355042 349048 344049
      336049 329050 325054 323061 320069 319072 316075 311074
      307072 297067 285061 279061 275059 269056 258049 247044
      243044 241045 240049 238050 232048 229049 228053 225061
      227068 232079 236084 241088 252097 262105 273111 280111
      285109 293107 298109 299113 303117 305119 310120 316120
      321117 327114 334115 341114 347116 351111 359107 363103
      368102 373103 378101 384097 390097 392098 396096 398097
      401100 409108 411107 414104 416098 416086 415078 415075
      416071 421063 425060 427053
 0.25 536209 536204 534196 530186 525176 519165 516161 510160
      505159 503160 502165 501173 501181 503187 507192 514200
      520208 522212 527216 532216 535212 536209
 0.25 516267 517261 517254 515245 512236 509227 506219 501210
      497203 492202 487202 482204 475209 470213 468216 469219
      470223 464241 463246 465250 469258 475264 482270 488274
      493277 498278 505276 511272 516267
 0.25 406070 405064 403060 400057 395055 388056 385057 382061
      375064 371068 371072 371077 374081 382084 387084 393086
      400081 404072 406070
 0.25 400802 399793 396786 392788 389792 385797 382802 380809
      382813 384815 388817 391818 395816 397812 399804 400802
 0.25 381053 379051 378050 376049 374049 372049 370049 369050
      367050 365051 365052 365053 365054 366055 368055 370055
      372055 374055 375055 377055 379055 381053
 0.25 362767 361764 358762 353763 351764 343768 339769 335772
      324780 316784 307788 301790 292792 281793 273792 258793
      249796 246798 243801 239805 238812 239824 242831 246837
      251841 263852 268854 273855 277853 280852 286851 294853
      297854 300853 303850 305848 308840 309836 313833 328830
      338829 346825 350820 352816 352812 352805 353800 353791
      357778 360772 362767
 0.25 357082 356079 354077 347075 340076 336078 332084 331090
      333095 338099 341100 345098 348094 351088 354084 357082
 0.25 303099 303093 299087 295083 289079 283077 276075 262071
      254070 248074 243076 248082 256091 267098 272100 279099
      285097 292098 303099 303099
 0.25 290956 292947 291943 288940 287938 283939 277941 267949
      261951 259953 258958 261960 254963 250968 252972 255976
      263979 270978 275974 275970 272968 270962 270958 272957
      277956 280958 284962 286962 288960 290956
 0.50 530202 528193 525184 521178 517169 511165 506166 505169
      505174 506180 507184 512189 520193 524198 526201 530202
 0.50 514264 515258 515255 513245 510237 507229 504221 500214
      495208 488205 483207 477211 475213 474217 479223 478227
      476230 471235 469244 472251 477257 483263 489267 496272
      502272 509270 512268 514264
 0.50 384072 383071 382069 380069 378071 380073 381074 383073
      384072
 0.50 356772 355770 351773 345777 341777 336779 327783 313790
      304795 298795 292796 286798 277796 266795 260795 255796
      248800 243805 241811 241817 241822 243828 247834 253840
      267851 271851 276849 285846 294842 296839 296832 294822
      288818 277817 273814 273810 278807 286808 294813 301818
      307822 315824 321824 327824 336821 341816 344812 345807
      347796 349785 352779 356772
 0.50 341089 341087 341089 341089
 0.50 288089 285082 277084 270081 265080 261082 258082 255083
      257086 264091 266093 272095 275092 274087 273085 277087
      285091 288089
 1.00 510257 507240 504232 501223 498217 495214 491212 483211
      481214 483219 491232 493239 491243 487242 477233 475235
      475240 477244 479247 482253 489259 495263 499265 502263
      506259 510257
 1.00 501254 500253 499253 500254 501254
 1.00 342803 341800 340792 339787 335786 330785 325788 319793
      316796 310799 301801 298804 301808 308813 315816 326815
      335811 338810 341805 342803
 1.00 288835 289831 287827 281825 268822 259814 258811 260810
      265809 267806 268804 266802 259799 252802 247806 244811
      244819 245825 249831 258840 263843 268842 274843 281841
      285838 288835
 1.50 503244 503238 502233 500229 499224 497219 492218 489221
      491224 495228 497232 497237 499242 503244 503244
 1.50 495259 495257 495256 494254 494253 492251 492250 491249
      489248 488249 487250 486251 487252 488254 490256 491257
      493258 493259 494259 495259
 1.50 336802 335797 333793 328794 325795 321798 316800 314803
      315807 319810 322811 328810 331808 335805 336802
 1.50 285831 284829 282827 276827 267824 259818 256815 254810
      256807 254806 251808 246816 246820 248826 255833 264836
      273839 279838 282835 285831
 2.00 497224 496222 495220 493222 494224 496225 497224
 2.00 329803 327802 325802 323803 323804 325805 327805 329803
      329803
 2.00 277834 277830 274829 269828 264825 261821 256818 251815
      249816 248820 251826 255830 260832 266833 271835 275835
      277834
 3.00 258824 258822 257821 256820 255819 253819 252820 252821
      252822 252824 254826 256826 258824 258824

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560864 560855 559845 557839 554832 550829 545830 540830
      537826 529821 524819 521812 517801 515803 512809 505834
      500843 495853 483874 471892 469895 465899 454905 450907
      446906 441906 438909 434913 433914 432918 436933 439946
      443957 445960 447962 450962 457962 461958 472961 475963
      481962 484960 488957 491952 493944 499935 506929 508927
      510929 510937 514942 520942 528934 533927 539918 545907
      550898 553893 555886 557873 560864
 0.01 539208 539195 539189 537182 535174 529164 525157 520147
      518145 515140 509135 505134 502138 497138 496135 493135
      483133 482135 482141 486149 488154 486160 483171 481186
      478197 475202 471203 468204 465206 462210 458212 453217
      451227 445233 440241 432262 428269 427274 430278 437275
      443268 449262 453260 456260 461260 466262 471264 477268
      480271 481275 484284 487294 492303 494306 498308 502309
      505306 513290 523262 524259 524257 525255 526252 526249
      528248 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238 531235 533233
      534230 534228 535225 536224
 0.01 422994 422985 419982 414982 408989 404998 400006 393010
      388013 382017 370027 358040 354045 349045 349042 357027
      358022 356020 351020 347021 343024 340026 337031 336036
      334043 331046 326046 322048 318048 318052 319056 316064
      310070 301071 296072 290071 281069 277070 274073 272074
      269072 262069 255066 248061 237048 231044 227050 227058
      230065 239076 244083 251089 273108 280111 285112 288114
      297116 301118 306119 316120 321119 328116 334110 338104
      343098 345093 345086 348083 350084 354084 361085 358078
      358076 362074 367075 371077 375084 376088 376094 378099
      382098 390094 396090 400090 402088 407083 412075 415069
      417064 418058 411052 406051 405048 405045 405039 407034
      410026 413017 415008 422994
 0.01 408861 408854 406850 405845 404841 399832 396833 392835
      384840 382843 381850 380859 378866 378871 380875 384875
      391870 395867 398867 407864 408861
 0.01 376719 375711 371707 368703 362699 356698 349700 345701
      341706 336716 332721 326724 316722 310721 306718 293721
      290725 289730 289734 290738 289743 290749 287760 284772
      280777 276782 269789 263792 256793 248798 245800 244803
      240809 239815 237821 236826 236830 240843 241846 244847
      250850 260856 264856 267853 289861 298865 303865 308861
      312859 320858 324855 329849 332846 336841 340830 343819
      344815 346812 350807 360787 365776 369761 370756 373751
      375745 377739 375726 376719
 0.01 364934 365927 364918 361915 355913 350911 343912 332913
      328914 322915 316917 313919 311917 303911 293908 284905
      279907 276906 275903 268895 262888 260884 256881 250870
      248867 243867 233872 231874 230876 230880 230888 232894
      235918 235923 233928 233940 233967 233974 234979 237992
      239997 242000 249008 271006 277006 281008 289004 294993
      298989 303986 317974 350952 359943 363938 364934
 0.25 535215 536209 536202 534190 531183 527175 524166 522162
      518159 511155 507154 502155 497159 495163 493170 495179
      497190 497193 495197 487200 476207 463216 461220 462225
      468231 472238 475242 479245 485249 490257 491261 491266
      493277 496284 499288 503291 507291 510289 515281 519272
      520265 519259 517250 514240 511232 508222 505214 506208
      509206 513206 517208 523213 525217 528219 531220 535215
 0.25 541863 541858 540858 538861 536864 535866 533869 532872
      530875 529878 532879 534878 536875 538872 539869 541866
      541863
 0.25 521845 522841 521837 517839 514848 505867 500878 496888
      487905 477922 472932 473936 476940 481941 486939 492932
      495921 498909 498901 500896 503891 506888 509885 512880
      513875 513866 514861 516855 521845 521845
 0.25 385074 386072 385070 384067 382065 380063 379063 377063
      376064 375066 375069 376071 378073 379074 379075 381075
      383075 385074 385074
 0.25 365746 365740 363733 361727 357725 352726 348729 341735
      330750 317763 312769 304776 298782 293790 288797 287799
      287803 287806 284807 274806 267803 265800 259801 251803
      244808 243813 244818 249818 251823 254827 255833 255836
      257841 263846 271850 282852 290854 296853 300852 307848
      320845 326839 326834 325829 320820 323816 327812 334807
      340801 353786 358780 361776 362770 363756 365746
 0.25 330081 331079 330078 329079 328081 330081 330081
 0.25 314094 315092 313091 312090 311090 310089 308089 307091
      306093 307096 309096 310096 311096 313095 314094
 0.25 304941 303935 298931 295927 291924 285923 277923 270919
      266915 261913 256911 251911 246914 243919 240930 239936
      239943 240956 241963 243968 246968 248968 249972 248977
      247986 248991 251996 254999 258999 261998 271996 282992
      286990 290985 292980 293973 292966 293958 294952 295948
      297945 301944 304941
 0.25 290089 290086 288084 284083 281083 277083 273083 273084
      275087 277089 280090 282091 284091 287091 290089
 0.25 259817 259815 257812 255810 257807 259805 256804 252805
      250807 250810 251814 252816 255818 257818 259817
 0.50 533209 534201 532196 528187 525177 521169 517166 513164
      508162 505164 502168 501175 504184 507190 510193 516200
      521207 524210 529212 533209
 0.50 518270 518265 517259 514248 511239 507231 499213 496209
      491206 483207 479209 476212 474217 474223 480231 478241
      481242 484239 485233 488231 491233 493239 492245 494251
      496261 496267 497273 498278 501282 504285 508285 511284
      515280 518270
 0.50 359772 357759 357748 355741 351738 348738 344741 331754
      320769 308782 302790 298798 300804 303808 310813 314815
      318811 322804 328796 335790 352780 357777 359772
 0.50 317834 318832 317830 317829 315829 314830 315832 317834
      317835 317834
 0.50 304840 302835 299832 293828 283826 274824 265823 259824
      258828 260836 265844 269846 272847 281849 287849 292848
      297847 300844 304840
 0.50 284983 285977 284973 281964 280961 280957 281954 283951
      284947 283943 279941 275940 270941 267941 263940 259937
      260941 258940 256937 254937 251941 252947 254948 257947
      258957 261964 263968 263973 260980 254986 252988 252991
      253994 255996 258995 266993 273989 280987 284983
 1.00 528199 526193 525189 522184 521181 518176 515174 510172
      510178 512181 514184 517188 520193 522197 525200 528199
 1.00 514277 516271 516264 514256 511248 507240 503234 499234
      498239 499245 501247 504251 504255 502264 501269 502274
      504277 508279 512279 514277
 1.00 492220 493217 492215 492214 491213 489212 487212 486212
      484212 482212 480213 479215 479218 479220 481221 483222
      484223 485222 486222 488222 489222 491222 491221 492220
 1.00 354773 353766 350763 344759 339760 336762 331768 324775
      319781 317785 316789 318791 321790 324788 331783 334780
      339778 345777 349776 354773
 1.00 296838 293834 291832 287831 282830 276828 271827 265827
      263827 262831 265837 268841 274845 279845 285844 292841
      296838
 1.00 277978 275977 274977 272978 271978 271980 272981 273980
      275980 277979 277978
 1.50 512271 513268 513266 513263 513261 513260 512257 511257
      510256 509257 508258 508259 507261 507264 506266 506268
      506269 508271 509272 511272 512271
 1.50 288837 286834 282832 278830 274829 269829 265831 266835
      269839 272841 277842 281842 284840 288837 288837
 2.00 282836 280834 278833 278832 276831 275831 273831 271830
      269831 267833 268835 269837 270837 272838 272839 273839
      275839 277838 278838 279837 281837 282836

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 292055
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DAYS 2/3...


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL. THERE IS
SOME MODEL SPREAD IN HOW THE REMNANTS ARE HANDLED...AND HOW THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANTS AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS ON THE WEST COAST OF
FL (BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER).
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

DAY 2...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WAS DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF
THE FL DURING DAY 2 (BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS). OTHER
SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM...TAKE THE VORTICITY
CENTER FURTHER EAST...WHICH DEMONSTRATES THE MODEL SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS...AND RESULTS IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD REMAIN OFF
THE FL WEST COAST...BRINGING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF JUST OFFSHORE
FROM THE KEYS THROUGH KTPA. ALONG THIS AXIS...2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES
OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES...SO BASED ON THE WPC QPF THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED FROM THE FL KEYS
UP THROUGH THE FL WEST COAST TO KTPA. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE
TO BETTER DELINEATE THE THREAT AS THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS
BECOMES CLEARER.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSES HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SC. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
AXIS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF CONVECTION HERE...AND
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF FROM CENTRAL SC
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GA.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ALONG THIS STRIPE GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES. WHILE THE WPC QPF VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THE FLASH FLOOD NUMBERS...THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD ON THE
HIGHER END FROM THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE. FOR THIS
REASON...NO SLIGHT RISK ARE WAS ASSIGNED AT THIS TIME.

DAY 3...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
WEST OF FL DURING DAY 3...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FEED REMAINING
OFFSHORE. AS WAS THE CASE DURING DAY 2...THE HIGHEST QPF STRIPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KPAM TO
JUST EAST OF KTPA. ALONG THIS LINE...2.00 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
WAS PLACED...WITH LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS PLACED NEAR THE COAST.
THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS FOR LOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE...SO A SLIGHT RISK
WAS ASSIGNED TO THE FL WEST COAST IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA.


...WESTERN GULF STATES...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY THE END OF DAY 3. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
OVER THE GULF AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX...WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.

DAY 2...
CONVECTION FORMS AS THE TROUGH LOWERS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHEAST TX DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG IN STABILITY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF WAS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.

DAY 3...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRUNDLES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST...ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO FORM CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT
THE SAME AS DAY 2...BUT SINCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE COAST... A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX. A SMALL AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED NEAR KCRP...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

SHORT WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAST...SO THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PROBABLY KEEPS THE CONVECTION MAINLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WERE
PLACED OVER EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

DAY 3...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS CONVECTION ACROSS MN
BEFORE 02/06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OUTFLOW DRIVEN...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MOVING. AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF COVERING MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE STATE. IF SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...THESE HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ENCOUNTERS SHORT WAVES IN THE MID
LEVEL LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. FOR THE
MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...WITH SOME 12Z NAM USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN AZ...DROPPING OFF TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DUE PRIMARILY TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKIES IN CO. IN THIS AREA...AN AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH LOWERS AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ...CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IN THE
ROCKIES OF CO. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF
AMOUNTS...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

DAY 3...
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO DAY 2 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
DAY 3. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL ON DAY 3...SO
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH.
STILL...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TERRAIN...AND
LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF AMOUNT BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM AND MUCH
OF CO.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SHORT WAVES ROUNDING A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WA AND OR DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. WHILE THERE WAS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THERE
WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT CROSS WA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING WA/OR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2 PUSHES
A SURFACE FRONT TO THE COAST LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 20 TO 30
KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO THE WA/OR COASTS...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY...SO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN STRIPES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE
AND NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.

DAY 3...
THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY
DURING DAY 3...AHEAD OF A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO
EASTERN WA. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND UPSLOPE MAKE
THE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACED...WHICH PRODUCE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.


TERRY/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
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      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
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      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
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      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
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      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
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      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
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      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
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 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564905 563893 562885 561880 557857 554847 551841 548838
      546836 542836 539837 537840 533850 531860 528882 525892
      521897 518902 516910 514921 512923 508925 500927 494933
      490939 488943 486948 481957 477964 477977 476984 474988
      471997 468001 465003 459005 446014 440019 435026 433030
      433036 435038 440038 447039 451037 456037 463037 465046
      468051 471053 473054 473058 471061 465067 460072 452075
      444075 443077 445080 449083 455085 457087 460091 461095
      461101 457111 463111 470108 474102 479095 483092 486088
      490081 492076 493071 494067 495060 489055 487054 489051
      491049 495044 505031 507027 509022 511017 509014 507009
      504007 505003 508999 513996 519990 530978 533974 534969
      533962 530957 525952 523952 522949 524944 527936 532929
      536922 540920 544918 556929 560930 562922 564905
 0.01 539211 540196 537185 531176 527166 524162 521158 515152
      497141 490136 484130 478129 476130 479135 484138 487141
      489146 489153 486158 484163 483173 482181 480185 478192
      475195 472198 470202 463211 461218 459222 455232 454236
      453238 449239 446260 447263 453266 456269 458273 460278
      464284 467288 471289 474289 479290 487289 494287 500296
      504297 507295 513286 518277 520270 521261 520249 519237
      515226 518225 522227 526233 528233 532227 534225
 0.01 502655 501643 499632 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 470648 469669 469679 467686 462701 460705 458703
      454698 451699 449701 443708 441709 439713 440719 440723
      438726 437730 438734 440735 444735 448731 454726 457722
      457719 458716 458710 459707 460709 461714 466717 470717
      472718 485721 489720 491718 495712 497702 497693 498688
      498683 499672 502655
 0.01 485052 483050 482050 480050 478050 477051 478053 480054
      481054 483054 485052
 0.01 473158 474148 473143 470142 462140 458140 455142 449145
      445150 444155 446158 450163 457165 462158 466157 470158
      473158
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 420782 417779 416775 414758 413751
      415745 414736 412734 409734 402746 399751 397758 396767
      395770 393772 388774 383772 371775 366772 367767 369763
      370756 367750 364747 354747 341746 334749 329754 321762
      313771 304778 292782 283782 277781 271779 267779 263778
      258779 253783 247790 241794 236793 232796 229802 228807
      229814 229822 231829 233835 238839 241844 245845 247847
      264862 272870 275876 278883 278892 276898 269906 268911
      264916 260921 259924 258929 253931 246933 239942 237948
      235954 235959 232963 232969 233975 237978 243981 249983
      252983 252987 253995 257000 263003 268002 275000 280997
      288989 294979 305958 307952 310947 316939 319932 319923
      315907 314905 313900 318896 325887 328882 330878 340871
      344867 348872 352876 352881 350884 347900 345908 341914
      335924 332930 330936 328943 328949 338954 358941 366934
      370928 373923 380913 386901 391888 392874 395867 398862
      401855 406848 409843 411837 414831 417828 420822 423815
      426803
 0.01 427053 425047 420042 417037 418030 411027 403025 397027
      393031 389035 385042 378043 372042 366038 362037 358039
      354044 349048 343049 334049 328051 325055 319072 317074
      313075 307072 295066 283061 279060 275059 272058 269056
      263051 258049 245044 236049 234048 229049 227055 225063
      227069 233080 241089 252097 262105 268109 275111 278111
      281110 287108 294108 298110 300114 304118 310120 317120
      322117 324115 329115 336115 339114 343114 346116 349114
      353110 359107 363103 369101 374102 379100 384097 389097
      392098 396096 399097 401100 405105 411108 414104 416095
      416084 415075 417068 421063 425060 427053
 0.25 536209 536203 534196 530186 525176 519165 516161 510160
      504160 503161 502165 501174 501181 503187 507192 514200
      520208 523213 527216 532216 535212 536209
 0.25 516267 517260 517254 515245 512236 509227 506218 501210
      496203 492202 487202 481205 475209 470214 468217 469220
      470223 464241 464246 465250 469258 475265 482270 489275
      493277 498278 505276 511272 516267
 0.25 406070 405063 403060 400057 395055 388056 384058 382061
      375064 371068 371072 371077 374081 382084 387084 393086
      400081 404072 406070
 0.25 399804 399795 397788 394787 389790 385795 382800 380807
      381811 382814 388817 393818 396814 399807 399804
 0.25 381053 379051 378050 376049 374049 372049 370049 369050
      367050 365051 365052 365053 365054 366055 368055 370055
      372055 374055 375055 377055 379055 381053
 0.25 362767 360763 357761 351763 344766 338769 335771 330776
      324781 316785 307788 300791 290793 280793 271792 263792
      254793 247797 241803 238810 238819 240828 244835 250841
      255845 261850 267854 272854 276853 284851 292853 297854
      300853 303850 305846 308839 309835 313833 322831 341828
      347823 352817 352811 352805 353796 353790 354787 357778
      360772 362767
 0.25 357082 356079 354077 347075 340076 336078 332084 331090
      333095 338099 341100 345098 348094 351088 354084 357082
 0.25 303099 304095 302091 298086 293081 287078 280076 271074
      254070 249068 251070 249071 236068 234070 235073 241078
      245082 251086 257090 265093 272095 281096 290097 298099
      303099
 0.25 290956 292947 291942 288940 286938 283939 277941 267949
      261951 259954 258958 260960 254963 250968 252972 256976
      263979 270978 275974 274970 272968 270962 270958 273956
      277956 280958 284962 288960 290956
 0.50 530202 528193 525184 521178 517169 511165 506166 505174
      506180 507184 512189 520193 524198 526201 530202
 0.50 514264 515257 515254 513245 509237 507229 504221 500214
      498210 495207 488205 483207 477211 475213 474218 479223
      479229 476231 470236 469239 469245 472251 477258 483263
      489267 496272 502272 509270 512267 514264
 0.50 384072 383071 382069 380069 378071 380073 381074 383073
      384072
 0.50 356772 354770 351773 347775 343776 333780 327783 324786
      319789 311791 303794 292796 285797 277796 268795 257795
      248799 243804 241813 241819 242825 246832 251838 257844
      263849 266851 272851 281848 296840 297832 296827 294823
      289818 280813 278811 277809 279807 282806 285807 293812
      299815 305820 312823 322824 332822 336821 339818 344812
      345803 347791 351781 356772
 0.50 341089 341087 341089 341089
 0.50 288089 289087 288086 286085 285082 284082 283083 281083
      279083 278084 277085 276086 277086 279087 280087 282088
      282089 284089 286090 288090 288089
 1.00 510257 507241 502226 500220 496214 489212 482211 482216
      483219 487226 490231 493238 492243 489243 483240 479235
      475237 476243 478245 482252 485256 491261 497265 503262
      510257
 1.00 501254 500253 499253 500254 501254
 1.00 341805 340800 337796 334793 332794 327795 322795 317795
      314796 303799 298800 298804 302810 310815 313816 319816
      330814 337810 340808 341805
 1.00 290837 286830 280826 267822 262817 259815 257811 261809
      265809 269804 264800 258799 250801 245807 244813 243818
      244823 247829 252834 257840 263843 270844 279843 290837
 1.50 503244 503238 502233 500229 499224 497219 492218 489221
      491224 495228 497232 497237 499242 503244 503244
 1.50 495259 495257 495256 494254 494253 492251 492250 491249
      489248 488249 487250 486251 487252 488254 490256 491257
      493258 493259 494259 495259
 1.50 331805 327803 323803 319802 316800 312801 307802 302804
      304809 308811 311811 317812 322811 327809 330807 331805
 1.50 282836 280830 277828 269825 262821 256816 254812 256807
      252805 249807 245815 246821 247825 253832 259836 268838
      277839 282836
 2.00 497224 496222 495220 493222 494224 496225 497224
 2.00 279834 276829 271828 265826 261822 257819 253816 250815
      248817 248822 252828 256832 262832 268835 273836 277835
      279834
 3.00 258823 258822 257821 256820 255819 253819 252820 251822
      252824 252825 254826 256826 257826 258825 258823

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560864 560855 559845 557839 554832 550829 545830 540830
      537826 529821 524819 521812 517801 515803 512809 505834
      500843 495853 483874 471892 469895 465899 454905 450907
      446906 441906 438909 434913 433914 432918 436933 439946
      443957 445960 447962 450962 457962 461958 472961 475963
      481962 484960 488957 491952 493944 499935 506929 508927
      510929 510937 514942 520942 528934 533927 539918 545907
      550898 553893 555886 557873 560864
 0.01 539208 539195 539189 537182 535174 529164 525157 520147
      518145 515140 509135 505134 502138 497138 496135 493135
      483133 482135 482141 486149 488154 486160 483171 481186
      478197 475202 471203 468204 465206 462210 458212 453217
      451227 445233 440241 432262 428269 427274 430278 437275
      443268 449262 453260 456260 461260 466262 471264 477268
      480271 481275 484284 487294 492303 494306 498308 502309
      505306 513290 523262 524259 524257 525255 526252 526249
      528248 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238 531235 533233
      534230 534228 535225 536224
 0.01 422994 422985 419982 414982 408989 404998 400006 393010
      388013 382017 370027 358040 354045 349045 349042 357027
      358022 356020 351020 347021 343024 340026 337031 336036
      334043 331046 326046 322048 318048 318052 319056 316064
      310070 301071 296072 290071 281069 277070 274073 272074
      269072 262069 255066 248061 237048 231044 227050 227058
      230065 239076 244083 251089 273108 280111 285112 288114
      297116 301118 306119 316120 321119 328116 334110 338104
      343098 345093 345086 348083 350084 354084 361085 358078
      358076 362074 367075 371077 375084 376088 376094 378099
      382098 390094 396090 400090 402088 407083 412075 415069
      417064 418058 411052 406051 405048 405045 405039 407034
      410026 413017 415008 422994
 0.01 408861 408854 406850 405845 404841 399832 396833 392835
      384840 382843 381850 380859 378866 378871 380875 384875
      391870 395867 398867 407864 408861
 0.01 376719 375711 371707 368703 362699 356698 349700 345701
      341706 336716 332721 326724 316722 310721 306718 293721
      290725 289730 289734 290738 289743 290749 287760 284772
      280777 276782 269789 263792 256793 248798 245800 244803
      240809 239815 237821 236826 236830 240843 241846 244847
      250850 260856 264856 267853 289861 298865 303865 308861
      312859 320858 324855 329849 332846 336841 340830 343819
      344815 346812 350807 360787 365776 369761 370756 373751
      375745 377739 375726 376719
 0.01 364934 365927 364918 361915 355913 350911 343912 332913
      328914 322915 316917 313919 311917 303911 293908 284905
      279907 276906 275903 268895 262888 260884 256881 250870
      248867 243867 233872 231874 230876 230880 230888 232894
      235918 235923 233928 233940 233967 233974 234979 237992
      239997 242000 249008 271006 277006 281008 289004 294993
      298989 303986 317974 350952 359943 363938 364934
 0.25 535215 536209 536202 534190 531183 527175 524166 522162
      518159 511155 507154 502155 497159 495163 493170 495179
      497190 497193 495197 487200 476207 463216 461220 462225
      468231 472238 475242 479245 485249 490257 491261 491266
      493277 496284 499288 503291 507291 510289 515281 519272
      520265 519259 517250 514240 511232 508222 505214 506208
      509206 513206 517208 523213 525217 528219 531220 535215
 0.25 541863 541858 540858 538861 536864 535866 533869 532872
      530875 529878 532879 534878 536875 538872 539869 541866
      541863
 0.25 521845 522841 521837 517839 514848 505867 500878 496888
      487905 477922 472932 473936 476940 481941 486939 492932
      495921 498909 498901 500896 503891 506888 509885 512880
      513875 513866 514861 516855 521845 521845
 0.25 385074 386072 385070 384067 382065 380063 379063 377063
      376064 375066 375069 376071 378073 379074 379075 381075
      383075 385074 385074
 0.25 365746 365740 363733 361727 357725 352726 348729 341735
      330750 317763 312769 304776 298782 293790 288797 287799
      287803 287806 284807 274806 267803 265800 259801 251803
      244808 243813 244818 249818 251823 254827 255833 255836
      257841 263846 271850 282852 290854 296853 300852 307848
      320845 326839 326834 325829 320820 323816 327812 334807
      340801 353786 358780 361776 362770 363756 365746
 0.25 330081 331079 330078 329079 328081 330081 330081
 0.25 314094 315092 313091 312090 311090 310089 308089 307091
      306093 307096 309096 310096 311096 313095 314094
 0.25 304941 303935 298931 295927 291924 285923 277923 270919
      266915 261913 256911 251911 246914 243919 240930 239936
      239943 240956 241963 243968 246968 248968 249972 248977
      247986 248991 251996 254999 258999 261998 271996 282992
      286990 290985 292980 293973 292966 293958 294952 295948
      297945 301944 304941
 0.25 290089 290086 288084 284083 281083 277083 273083 273084
      275087 277089 280090 282091 284091 287091 290089
 0.25 259817 259815 257812 255810 257807 259805 256804 252805
      250807 250810 251814 252816 255818 257818 259817
 0.50 533209 534201 532196 528187 525177 521169 517166 513164
      508162 505164 502168 501175 504184 507190 510193 516200
      521207 524210 529212 533209
 0.50 518270 518265 517259 514248 511239 507231 499213 496209
      491206 483207 479209 476212 474217 474223 480231 478241
      481242 484239 485233 488231 491233 493239 492245 494251
      496261 496267 497273 498278 501282 504285 508285 511284
      515280 518270
 0.50 359772 357759 357748 355741 351738 348738 344741 331754
      320769 308782 302790 298798 300804 303808 310813 314815
      318811 322804 328796 335790 352780 357777 359772
 0.50 317834 318832 317830 317829 315829 314830 315832 317834
      317835 317834
 0.50 304840 302835 299832 293828 283826 274824 265823 259824
      258828 260836 265844 269846 272847 281849 287849 292848
      297847 300844 304840
 0.50 284983 285977 284973 281964 280961 280957 281954 283951
      284947 283943 279941 275940 270941 267941 263940 259937
      260941 258940 256937 254937 251941 252947 254948 257947
      258957 261964 263968 263973 260980 254986 252988 252991
      253994 255996 258995 266993 273989 280987 284983
 1.00 528199 526193 525189 522184 521181 518176 515174 510172
      510178 512181 514184 517188 520193 522197 525200 528199
 1.00 514277 516271 516264 514256 511248 507240 503234 499234
      498239 499245 501247 504251 504255 502264 501269 502274
      504277 508279 512279 514277
 1.00 492220 493217 492215 492214 491213 489212 487212 486212
      484212 482212 480213 479215 479218 479220 481221 483222
      484223 485222 486222 488222 489222 491222 491221 492220
 1.00 354773 353766 350763 344759 339760 336762 331768 324775
      319781 317785 316789 318791 321790 324788 331783 334780
      339778 345777 349776 354773
 1.00 296838 293834 291832 287831 282830 276828 271827 265827
      263827 262831 265837 268841 274845 279845 285844 292841
      296838
 1.00 277978 275977 274977 272978 271978 271980 272981 273980
      275980 277979 277978
 1.50 512271 513268 513266 513263 513261 513260 512257 511257
      510256 509257 508258 508259 507261 507264 506266 506268
      506269 508271 509272 511272 512271
 1.50 288837 286834 282832 278830 274829 269829 265831 266835
      269839 272841 277842 281842 284840 288837 288837
 2.00 282836 280834 278833 278832 276831 275831 273831 271830
      269831 267833 268835 269837 270837 272838 272839 273839
      275839 277838 278838 279837 281837 282836

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 292055
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DAYS 2/3...


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL. THERE IS
SOME MODEL SPREAD IN HOW THE REMNANTS ARE HANDLED...AND HOW THE
PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANTS AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS ON THE WEST COAST OF
FL (BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER).
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

DAY 2...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WAS DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF
THE FL DURING DAY 2 (BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS). OTHER
SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM...TAKE THE VORTICITY
CENTER FURTHER EAST...WHICH DEMONSTRATES THE MODEL SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS...AND RESULTS IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD REMAIN OFF
THE FL WEST COAST...BRINGING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF JUST OFFSHORE
FROM THE KEYS THROUGH KTPA. ALONG THIS AXIS...2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES
OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES...SO BASED ON THE WPC QPF THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED FROM THE FL KEYS
UP THROUGH THE FL WEST COAST TO KTPA. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE
TO BETTER DELINEATE THE THREAT AS THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS
BECOMES CLEARER.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSES HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SC. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
AXIS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF CONVECTION HERE...AND
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION
TO PRODUCE A LINE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF FROM CENTRAL SC
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GA.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ALONG THIS STRIPE GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.50 INCHES. WHILE THE WPC QPF VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO THE FLASH FLOOD NUMBERS...THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD ON THE
HIGHER END FROM THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE. FOR THIS
REASON...NO SLIGHT RISK ARE WAS ASSIGNED AT THIS TIME.

DAY 3...
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
WEST OF FL DURING DAY 3...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FEED REMAINING
OFFSHORE. AS WAS THE CASE DURING DAY 2...THE HIGHEST QPF STRIPE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KPAM TO
JUST EAST OF KTPA. ALONG THIS LINE...2.00 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF
WAS PLACED...WITH LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS PLACED NEAR THE COAST.
THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS FOR LOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE...SO A SLIGHT RISK
WAS ASSIGNED TO THE FL WEST COAST IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA.


...WESTERN GULF STATES...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY THE END OF DAY 3. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
OVER THE GULF AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX...WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.

DAY 2...
CONVECTION FORMS AS THE TROUGH LOWERS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHEAST TX DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG IN STABILITY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF WAS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.

DAY 3...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRUNDLES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST...ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO FORM CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ABOUT
THE SAME AS DAY 2...BUT SINCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO
THE COAST... A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX. A SMALL AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED NEAR KCRP...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

SHORT WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAST...SO THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PROBABLY KEEPS THE CONVECTION MAINLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WERE
PLACED OVER EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

DAY 3...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS CONVECTION ACROSS MN
BEFORE 02/06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIALLY BE OUTFLOW DRIVEN...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MOVING. AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF COVERING MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE STATE. IF SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...THESE HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ENCOUNTERS SHORT WAVES IN THE MID
LEVEL LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. FOR THE
MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...WITH SOME 12Z NAM USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 2.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN AZ...DROPPING OFF TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...DUE PRIMARILY TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKIES IN CO. IN THIS AREA...AN AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH LOWERS AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ...CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IN THE
ROCKIES OF CO. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF
AMOUNTS...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

DAY 3...
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO DAY 2 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
DAY 3. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL ON DAY 3...SO
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH.
STILL...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TERRAIN...AND
LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF AMOUNT BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM AND MUCH
OF CO.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SHORT WAVES ROUNDING A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WA AND OR DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. WHILE THERE WAS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THERE
WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SHORT WAVES THAT CROSS WA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER
TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
A SHORT WAVE CROSSING WA/OR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2 PUSHES
A SURFACE FRONT TO THE COAST LATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 20 TO 30
KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO THE WA/OR COASTS...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY...SO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN STRIPES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE
AND NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.

DAY 3...
THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY
DURING DAY 3...AHEAD OF A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH TRANSPORTS 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO
EASTERN WA. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND UPSLOPE MAKE
THE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACED...WHICH PRODUCE 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES OF WA.


TERRY/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564905 563893 562885 561880 557857 554847 551841 548838
      546836 542836 539837 537840 533850 531860 528882 525892
      521897 518902 516910 514921 512923 508925 500927 494933
      490939 488943 486948 481957 477964 477977 476984 474988
      471997 468001 465003 459005 446014 440019 435026 433030
      433036 435038 440038 447039 451037 456037 463037 465046
      468051 471053 473054 473058 471061 465067 460072 452075
      444075 443077 445080 449083 455085 457087 460091 461095
      461101 457111 463111 470108 474102 479095 483092 486088
      490081 492076 493071 494067 495060 489055 487054 489051
      491049 495044 505031 507027 509022 511017 509014 507009
      504007 505003 508999 513996 519990 530978 533974 534969
      533962 530957 525952 523952 522949 524944 527936 532929
      536922 540920 544918 556929 560930 562922 564905
 0.01 539211 540196 537185 531176 527166 524162 521158 515152
      497141 490136 484130 478129 476130 479135 484138 487141
      489146 489153 486158 484163 483173 482181 480185 478192
      475195 472198 470202 463211 461218 459222 455232 454236
      453238 449239 446260 447263 453266 456269 458273 460278
      464284 467288 471289 474289 479290 487289 494287 500296
      504297 507295 513286 518277 520270 521261 520249 519237
      515226 518225 522227 526233 528233 532227 534225
 0.01 502655 501643 499632 496622 491617 486616 479619 474624
      471633 470648 469669 469679 467686 462701 460705 458703
      454698 451699 449701 443708 441709 439713 440719 440723
      438726 437730 438734 440735 444735 448731 454726 457722
      457719 458716 458710 459707 460709 461714 466717 470717
      472718 485721 489720 491718 495712 497702 497693 498688
      498683 499672 502655
 0.01 485052 483050 482050 480050 478050 477051 478053 480054
      481054 483054 485052
 0.01 473158 474148 473143 470142 462140 458140 455142 449145
      445150 444155 446158 450163 457165 462158 466157 470158
      473158
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 420782 417779 416775 414758 413751
      415745 414736 412734 409734 402746 399751 397758 396767
      395770 393772 388774 383772 371775 366772 367767 369763
      370756 367750 364747 354747 341746 334749 329754 321762
      313771 304778 292782 283782 277781 271779 267779 263778
      258779 253783 247790 241794 236793 232796 229802 228807
      229814 229822 231829 233835 238839 241844 245845 247847
      264862 272870 275876 278883 278892 276898 269906 268911
      264916 260921 259924 258929 253931 246933 239942 237948
      235954 235959 232963 232969 233975 237978 243981 249983
      252983 252987 253995 257000 263003 268002 275000 280997
      288989 294979 305958 307952 310947 316939 319932 319923
      315907 314905 313900 318896 325887 328882 330878 340871
      344867 348872 352876 352881 350884 347900 345908 341914
      335924 332930 330936 328943 328949 338954 358941 366934
      370928 373923 380913 386901 391888 392874 395867 398862
      401855 406848 409843 411837 414831 417828 420822 423815
      426803
 0.01 427053 425047 420042 417037 418030 411027 403025 397027
      393031 389035 385042 378043 372042 366038 362037 358039
      354044 349048 343049 334049 328051 325055 319072 317074
      313075 307072 295066 283061 279060 275059 272058 269056
      263051 258049 245044 236049 234048 229049 227055 225063
      227069 233080 241089 252097 262105 268109 275111 278111
      281110 287108 294108 298110 300114 304118 310120 317120
      322117 324115 329115 336115 339114 343114 346116 349114
      353110 359107 363103 369101 374102 379100 384097 389097
      392098 396096 399097 401100 405105 411108 414104 416095
      416084 415075 417068 421063 425060 427053
 0.25 536209 536203 534196 530186 525176 519165 516161 510160
      504160 503161 502165 501174 501181 503187 507192 514200
      520208 523213 527216 532216 535212 536209
 0.25 516267 517260 517254 515245 512236 509227 506218 501210
      496203 492202 487202 481205 475209 470214 468217 469220
      470223 464241 464246 465250 469258 475265 482270 489275
      493277 498278 505276 511272 516267
 0.25 406070 405063 403060 400057 395055 388056 384058 382061
      375064 371068 371072 371077 374081 382084 387084 393086
      400081 404072 406070
 0.25 399804 399795 397788 394787 389790 385795 382800 380807
      381811 382814 388817 393818 396814 399807 399804
 0.25 381053 379051 378050 376049 374049 372049 370049 369050
      367050 365051 365052 365053 365054 366055 368055 370055
      372055 374055 375055 377055 379055 381053
 0.25 362767 360763 357761 351763 344766 338769 335771 330776
      324781 316785 307788 300791 290793 280793 271792 263792
      254793 247797 241803 238810 238819 240828 244835 250841
      255845 261850 267854 272854 276853 284851 292853 297854
      300853 303850 305846 308839 309835 313833 322831 341828
      347823 352817 352811 352805 353796 353790 354787 357778
      360772 362767
 0.25 357082 356079 354077 347075 340076 336078 332084 331090
      333095 338099 341100 345098 348094 351088 354084 357082
 0.25 303099 304095 302091 298086 293081 287078 280076 271074
      254070 249068 251070 249071 236068 234070 235073 241078
      245082 251086 257090 265093 272095 281096 290097 298099
      303099
 0.25 290956 292947 291942 288940 286938 283939 277941 267949
      261951 259954 258958 260960 254963 250968 252972 256976
      263979 270978 275974 274970 272968 270962 270958 273956
      277956 280958 284962 288960 290956
 0.50 530202 528193 525184 521178 517169 511165 506166 505174
      506180 507184 512189 520193 524198 526201 530202
 0.50 514264 515257 515254 513245 509237 507229 504221 500214
      498210 495207 488205 483207 477211 475213 474218 479223
      479229 476231 470236 469239 469245 472251 477258 483263
      489267 496272 502272 509270 512267 514264
 0.50 384072 383071 382069 380069 378071 380073 381074 383073
      384072
 0.50 356772 354770 351773 347775 343776 333780 327783 324786
      319789 311791 303794 292796 285797 277796 268795 257795
      248799 243804 241813 241819 242825 246832 251838 257844
      263849 266851 272851 281848 296840 297832 296827 294823
      289818 280813 278811 277809 279807 282806 285807 293812
      299815 305820 312823 322824 332822 336821 339818 344812
      345803 347791 351781 356772
 0.50 341089 341087 341089 341089
 0.50 288089 289087 288086 286085 285082 284082 283083 281083
      279083 278084 277085 276086 277086 279087 280087 282088
      282089 284089 286090 288090 288089
 1.00 510257 507241 502226 500220 496214 489212 482211 482216
      483219 487226 490231 493238 492243 489243 483240 479235
      475237 476243 478245 482252 485256 491261 497265 503262
      510257
 1.00 501254 500253 499253 500254 501254
 1.00 341805 340800 337796 334793 332794 327795 322795 317795
      314796 303799 298800 298804 302810 310815 313816 319816
      330814 337810 340808 341805
 1.00 290837 286830 280826 267822 262817 259815 257811 261809
      265809 269804 264800 258799 250801 245807 244813 243818
      244823 247829 252834 257840 263843 270844 279843 290837
 1.50 503244 503238 502233 500229 499224 497219 492218 489221
      491224 495228 497232 497237 499242 503244 503244
 1.50 495259 495257 495256 494254 494253 492251 492250 491249
      489248 488249 487250 486251 487252 488254 490256 491257
      493258 493259 494259 495259
 1.50 331805 327803 323803 319802 316800 312801 307802 302804
      304809 308811 311811 317812 322811 327809 330807 331805
 1.50 282836 280830 277828 269825 262821 256816 254812 256807
      252805 249807 245815 246821 247825 253832 259836 268838
      277839 282836
 2.00 497224 496222 495220 493222 494224 496225 497224
 2.00 279834 276829 271828 265826 261822 257819 253816 250815
      248817 248822 252828 256832 262832 268835 273836 277835
      279834
 3.00 258823 258822 257821 256820 255819 253819 252820 251822
      252824 252825 254826 256826 257826 258825 258823

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560864 560855 559845 557839 554832 550829 545830 540830
      537826 529821 524819 521812 517801 515803 512809 505834
      500843 495853 483874 471892 469895 465899 454905 450907
      446906 441906 438909 434913 433914 432918 436933 439946
      443957 445960 447962 450962 457962 461958 472961 475963
      481962 484960 488957 491952 493944 499935 506929 508927
      510929 510937 514942 520942 528934 533927 539918 545907
      550898 553893 555886 557873 560864
 0.01 539208 539195 539189 537182 535174 529164 525157 520147
      518145 515140 509135 505134 502138 497138 496135 493135
      483133 482135 482141 486149 488154 486160 483171 481186
      478197 475202 471203 468204 465206 462210 458212 453217
      451227 445233 440241 432262 428269 427274 430278 437275
      443268 449262 453260 456260 461260 466262 471264 477268
      480271 481275 484284 487294 492303 494306 498308 502309
      505306 513290 523262 524259 524257 525255 526252 526249
      528248 528247 528245 529242 530240 531238 531235 533233
      534230 534228 535225 536224
 0.01 422994 422985 419982 414982 408989 404998 400006 393010
      388013 382017 370027 358040 354045 349045 349042 357027
      358022 356020 351020 347021 343024 340026 337031 336036
      334043 331046 326046 322048 318048 318052 319056 316064
      310070 301071 296072 290071 281069 277070 274073 272074
      269072 262069 255066 248061 237048 231044 227050 227058
      230065 239076 244083 251089 273108 280111 285112 288114
      297116 301118 306119 316120 321119 328116 334110 338104
      343098 345093 345086 348083 350084 354084 361085 358078
      358076 362074 367075 371077 375084 376088 376094 378099
      382098 390094 396090 400090 402088 407083 412075 415069
      417064 418058 411052 406051 405048 405045 405039 407034
      410026 413017 415008 422994
 0.01 408861 408854 406850 405845 404841 399832 396833 392835
      384840 382843 381850 380859 378866 378871 380875 384875
      391870 395867 398867 407864 408861
 0.01 376719 375711 371707 368703 362699 356698 349700 345701
      341706 336716 332721 326724 316722 310721 306718 293721
      290725 289730 289734 290738 289743 290749 287760 284772
      280777 276782 269789 263792 256793 248798 245800 244803
      240809 239815 237821 236826 236830 240843 241846 244847
      250850 260856 264856 267853 289861 298865 303865 308861
      312859 320858 324855 329849 332846 336841 340830 343819
      344815 346812 350807 360787 365776 369761 370756 373751
      375745 377739 375726 376719
 0.01 364934 365927 364918 361915 355913 350911 343912 332913
      328914 322915 316917 313919 311917 303911 293908 284905
      279907 276906 275903 268895 262888 260884 256881 250870
      248867 243867 233872 231874 230876 230880 230888 232894
      235918 235923 233928 233940 233967 233974 234979 237992
      239997 242000 249008 271006 277006 281008 289004 294993
      298989 303986 317974 350952 359943 363938 364934
 0.25 535215 536209 536202 534190 531183 527175 524166 522162
      518159 511155 507154 502155 497159 495163 493170 495179
      497190 497193 495197 487200 476207 463216 461220 462225
      468231 472238 475242 479245 485249 490257 491261 491266
      493277 496284 499288 503291 507291 510289 515281 519272
      520265 519259 517250 514240 511232 508222 505214 506208
      509206 513206 517208 523213 525217 528219 531220 535215
 0.25 541863 541858 540858 538861 536864 535866 533869 532872
      530875 529878 532879 534878 536875 538872 539869 541866
      541863
 0.25 521845 522841 521837 517839 514848 505867 500878 496888
      487905 477922 472932 473936 476940 481941 486939 492932
      495921 498909 498901 500896 503891 506888 509885 512880
      513875 513866 514861 516855 521845 521845
 0.25 385074 386072 385070 384067 382065 380063 379063 377063
      376064 375066 375069 376071 378073 379074 379075 381075
      383075 385074 385074
 0.25 365746 365740 363733 361727 357725 352726 348729 341735
      330750 317763 312769 304776 298782 293790 288797 287799
      287803 287806 284807 274806 267803 265800 259801 251803
      244808 243813 244818 249818 251823 254827 255833 255836
      257841 263846 271850 282852 290854 296853 300852 307848
      320845 326839 326834 325829 320820 323816 327812 334807
      340801 353786 358780 361776 362770 363756 365746
 0.25 330081 331079 330078 329079 328081 330081 330081
 0.25 314094 315092 313091 312090 311090 310089 308089 307091
      306093 307096 309096 310096 311096 313095 314094
 0.25 304941 303935 298931 295927 291924 285923 277923 270919
      266915 261913 256911 251911 246914 243919 240930 239936
      239943 240956 241963 243968 246968 248968 249972 248977
      247986 248991 251996 254999 258999 261998 271996 282992
      286990 290985 292980 293973 292966 293958 294952 295948
      297945 301944 304941
 0.25 290089 290086 288084 284083 281083 277083 273083 273084
      275087 277089 280090 282091 284091 287091 290089
 0.25 259817 259815 257812 255810 257807 259805 256804 252805
      250807 250810 251814 252816 255818 257818 259817
 0.50 533209 534201 532196 528187 525177 521169 517166 513164
      508162 505164 502168 501175 504184 507190 510193 516200
      521207 524210 529212 533209
 0.50 518270 518265 517259 514248 511239 507231 499213 496209
      491206 483207 479209 476212 474217 474223 480231 478241
      481242 484239 485233 488231 491233 493239 492245 494251
      496261 496267 497273 498278 501282 504285 508285 511284
      515280 518270
 0.50 359772 357759 357748 355741 351738 348738 344741 331754
      320769 308782 302790 298798 300804 303808 310813 314815
      318811 322804 328796 335790 352780 357777 359772
 0.50 317834 318832 317830 317829 315829 314830 315832 317834
      317835 317834
 0.50 304840 302835 299832 293828 283826 274824 265823 259824
      258828 260836 265844 269846 272847 281849 287849 292848
      297847 300844 304840
 0.50 284983 285977 284973 281964 280961 280957 281954 283951
      284947 283943 279941 275940 270941 267941 263940 259937
      260941 258940 256937 254937 251941 252947 254948 257947
      258957 261964 263968 263973 260980 254986 252988 252991
      253994 255996 258995 266993 273989 280987 284983
 1.00 528199 526193 525189 522184 521181 518176 515174 510172
      510178 512181 514184 517188 520193 522197 525200 528199
 1.00 514277 516271 516264 514256 511248 507240 503234 499234
      498239 499245 501247 504251 504255 502264 501269 502274
      504277 508279 512279 514277
 1.00 492220 493217 492215 492214 491213 489212 487212 486212
      484212 482212 480213 479215 479218 479220 481221 483222
      484223 485222 486222 488222 489222 491222 491221 492220
 1.00 354773 353766 350763 344759 339760 336762 331768 324775
      319781 317785 316789 318791 321790 324788 331783 334780
      339778 345777 349776 354773
 1.00 296838 293834 291832 287831 282830 276828 271827 265827
      263827 262831 265837 268841 274845 279845 285844 292841
      296838
 1.00 277978 275977 274977 272978 271978 271980 272981 273980
      275980 277979 277978
 1.50 512271 513268 513266 513263 513261 513260 512257 511257
      510256 509257 508258 508259 507261 507264 506266 506268
      506269 508271 509272 511272 512271
 1.50 288837 286834 282832 278830 274829 269829 265831 266835
      269839 272841 277842 281842 284840 288837 288837
 2.00 282836 280834 278833 278832 276831 275831 273831 271830
      269831 267833 268835 269837 270837 272838 272839 273839
      275839 277838 278838 279837 281837 282836

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 291336
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ESE MTH 20 SE NQX 20 WSW KEY 25 WNW KEY 25 N NQX 35 N MTH
20 NW HWO 10 E PBI 25 E PMP 40 E HST 50 ESE MTH.


SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EARLIER THINKING/REASONING AT
THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


...COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS...

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE FROM PERIODS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.



DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 474621 475626 478635 482648 487634 490628 492626
      495627 498630 500635 504646 506654 509659 511676 513686
      513696 514712 515722 514730 512737 510746 504772 502783
      500794 498812 496825 496836 496842 495846 491859 491863
      489866 487870 481879 478883 475887 471888 471883 471873
      472865 472858 473855 473850 467838 463838 461840 458842
      456845 445863 435879 422898 415908 406916 400922 392928
      377938 372943 368947 361954 357956 352955 348955 345956
      341956 338954 332954 329952 323952 325949 341939 343932
      346927 348923 352919 364914 367911 372906 384888 378868
      385859 390849 395836 397830 399823 400818 403814 405801
      407796 411794 419789 423784 429781 432780 435785 437793
      439796 441795 442793 447788 449786 450781 452768 453762
      452755 453750 456744 460736 464722 454725 452723 451719
      450716 449711 450704 451698 458677 460651 463634 464627
      467621
 0.01 203761 205772 209777 211783 211790 212796 214800 217807
      218810 221813 226816 231820 236826 238828 240833 240839
      242843 243847 247851 259859 269865 283871 292874 301876
      307878 314881 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881 359876
      365873 370869 375864 380857 383848 384841 383827 381823
      378824 374829 369835 355841 350841 348837 346833 344831
      336828 332829 329829 328827 326819 326811 337802 339791
      340782 340777 343773 348766 353762 357755 358751 361747
      363742 368725 369721 368718 366718 356718 354719 352722
      346728 336738 331744 325748 310760 300768 295772 290773
      287772 271771 266771 261769 253765 247763 242760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541179 538177 525164 520159 515156 503149
      500146 496144 489142 488144 487151 484155 479152 467144
      464144 462146 459150 454158 451167 446172 448175 451176
      452178 454181 457182 463178 466173 469170 472171 475169
      479170 482169 486171 490173 492174 492178 487184 477190
      468200 466204 462204 457208 451212 440211 433209 426204
      420201 419206 421211 419217 413213 404212 397216 402221
      404223 403227 401229 397228 389226 384225 380226 376228
      380234 381237 384238 387241 391242 394245 398247 402249
      412257 420260 427260 435259 443259 450259 456258 464259
      471263 479268 483274 486284 490292 495296 500296 506295
      511289 515281 518270 520264 521257 523251 522246 521242
      521236 525230 529229 533225 538209 539200 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 449111 447109 441105 437105
      435107 434110 430113 424114 416115 410117 408119 408122
      412122 416125 417129 417136 416139 420142 424140 427134
      433128 439125 442123 444125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 451133 452129 454126 455120 457115
 0.01 391070 390067 388064 383062 380060 379055 374050 372048
      369048 364050 356053 344049 330044 317043 311043 307047
      288065 284068 278069 272069 267068 256063 249059 241056
      232053 228055 227062 230068 233072 239077 244080 249084
      253086 258090 263092 272100 277104 284107 305117 309118
      312120 317123 323123 327122 329119 332113 336117 339122
      342125 354131 358132 361130 366126 366121 361118 351112
      348110 347106 345099 348092 351088 352085 349081 345079
      342080 339080 336078 335075 336071 338068 343066 361068
      368069 371073 374080 377083 381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 526182 522175 516169 508167 505170
      503179 502184 501189 496197 489200 480202 467209 460210
      452215 446219 443222 443230 440235 437238 429242 423246
      424249 428251 437250 443252 447252 455251 462251 467251
      472253 480259 485266 490273 495280 498286 501287 504287
      509283 513274 517264 519256 519249 517239 513230 509222
      507215 507208 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210 532205
 0.25 498657 497649 494647 492648 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476748 477754 479757 483756 488748 493741
      496730 498719 499713 498708 497696 496682 497670 498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 438854 439848 438842 436840 433839 427843 422846 413855
      408868 400880 397887 396894 397899 399901 404900 410896
      415892 420888 423883 430871 436859 438854
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350742 347741 343745 339749 335754 329762 325771
      322776 318779 314784 310789 306791 301792 290793 282793
      277792 264789 256786 249780 242772 233763 227758 218754
      211755 208757 210764 212770 216780 220790 233809 240817
      242820 246822 252823 259823 264825 269827 272824 275820
      282814 282811 280810 275809 272809 270807 272805 277805
      295811 304814 310816 314816 316815 320811 322807 326797
      326786 332774 335771 339769 344760 349752 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342853 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298822 295826 292829 285830 280830
      275831 269833 266836 263838 261844 266854 273857 284859
      293862 312865 316867 323867 332868 337869 343867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516245 513234 503211 500205 497203 493202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446234 442236 439241 440244 442246 447248 456246
      462246 468247 472249 477251 481255 485261 491270 498281
      500285 504284 508281 511275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 429859 427854 424853 420855 419860 418865 416870 416875
      417877 420874 423870 425867 427862 429859
 0.50 335858 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835 309830
      304829 300830 298832 295835 287836 281838 279839 277843
      278846 281853 285855 292856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 265812 258809 260805 264802 268801 270799
      268797 260792 253787 240775 228763 219759 214760 213765
      217777 221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 252816
      261819 268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513247 511236 507226 502217 500213 496208
      490206 479208 472211 464215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 451235 447239 448243 453243 463241 467241
      471243 480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 502280 505279
      509270 510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 247789 245786 241783 238779 232772
      228768 224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797
      237800 239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510245 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 485211
      481211 477212 474214 479217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525167 522160 514153 494140 487133 482129 478127
      475134 473138 475139 481142 479146 476146 472143 466140
      460140 456142 449145 446149 444157 449161 448178 451183
      455183 465192 471192 474193 476195 478201 474206 466209
      453213 439211 435214 432219 427230 420232 415234 411240
      410244 412247 421247 426246 432247 445247 454255 466260
      468266 468273 474288 477294 483297 487301 489302 491300
      497289 507253 509244 511237 512229 511226 511223 513215
      516205 520199 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 508011 501005 496000 490000 487002 483005 478006
      477004 473003 466003 458005 449012 437023 435026 433031
      433042 431043 427044 422043 419047 415049 404049 399046
      394045 392043 388045 383046 379044 370045 363048 360049
      356047 353048 349050 343049 338047 331046 327044 324044
      323046 321050 323054 324060 323066 319074 311077 301075
      292069 287067 281067 271062 255054 252052 246051 238052
      234053 233055 232062 232073 247088 255091 261098 266103
      272110 278112 282115 286118 290120 295122 301124 306126
      312126 319123 329121 334121 335125 337130 340133 347135
      350139 354142 358141 365136 373129 378128 381126 388121
      396118 400116 404117 410116 416116 419116 422120 422125
      424129 428125 430121 434117 435120 434124 435130 439139
      444140 446138 448136 448131 462117 469110 473108 477102
      481095 482084 491068 493061 495059 493056 488054 488051
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492659 491654 487650 483646 476643 469646 466649
      465655 465665 463675 459683 455690 453694 452698 451703
      454708 455711 458712 461715 462720 467729 470729 473726
      476719 478707 480699 486692 490686 492682 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481049 478044 475039 470036 460036 455037 448037
      446049 439057 433057 429059 426059 425061 421065 415072
      414076 415078 416085 415100 414106 418106 421105 425102
      426096 428091 433090 442067 445069 448072 453075 458073
      465067 473058 476054 481054 485052
 0.01 428786 425772 424764 422757 419752 415750 410751 407754
      404755 402753 399749 394752 391760 390775 388780 384786
      379796 375798 369800 363802 359798 353792 353787 354784
      357778 361766 364760 366755 368748 368739 368731 366730
      362730 361729 354729 351729 348732 340740 321756 312764
      300770 291776 287778 281779 270784 261787 247791 242792
      239791 233788 229789 225794 225801 225809 232833 238841
      241843 246845 262861 272869 275875 274882 271892 269897
      266903 260911 256920 254926 253932 254935 252938 250940
      248943 250956 259962 264965 268967 272970 276972 282971
      286968 289965 291961 294956 297948 300936 303920 303913
      303908 306905 311903 313901 318896 321893 324888 327883
      330883 333886 339916 334927 331933 330936 330941 328947
      330950 339954 348948 352945 355945 367941 372940 376935
      380930 384926 389921 391915 402895 411876 414870 416865
      419858 421851 425836 427817 427801 427793 428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506163 503163
      496164 489165 487167 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      513193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507232 507226 506219 502213 496206 485206 481207
      477209 474211 468213 461216 460220 461223 464225 465224
      473221 477223 480226 477228 471231 466234 463241 463244
      466248 470251 474256 477266 480272 483277 486280 489282
      489284 490286 492283 494277 498267 501259 500254 499252
      499247 503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 347778 347770 345768 342769 336778 326790
      319797 311802 304803 295802 287798 283795 279794 270791
      261791 250794 245796 239795 235794 230796 228803 228811
      229816 233826 237834 242839 250843 255842 259839 262831
      264829 268830 273831 279831 286831 288833 293840 297847
      298853 301855 307847 311846 314843 318842 322843 332844
      340850 345850 350849 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304085 298080 283077 279087
      275087 268083 263081 259083 260088 269097 272100 280103
      286105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 307105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 515181 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169
      496174 496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 474217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470236 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482265
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344820 343814 340808 338800 339794 340786 339783
      335785 330789 324796 319802 313806 304807 295805 287802
      281798 275796 268794 262793 257794 243800 235797 231798
      229803 230813 232820 236829 241835 248839 255839 263824
      271825 275825 277822 270816 268813 269812 273812 276813
      282816 292818 299820 307822 316821 320821 324823 330828
      334832 338834 342831 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 268797 264797 259797 253798 249801 243803
      239801 236801 234803 232808 233816 238827 241831 246834
      250835 254834 256832 256827 255820 255814 257807 262805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 259800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 251832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 254805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.



DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 474621 475626 478635 482648 487634 490628 492626
      495627 498630 500635 504646 506654 509659 511676 513686
      513696 514712 515722 514730 512737 510746 504772 502783
      500794 498812 496825 496836 496842 495846 491859 491863
      489866 487870 481879 478883 475887 471888 471883 471873
      472865 472858 473855 473850 467838 463838 461840 458842
      456845 445863 435879 422898 415908 406916 400922 392928
      377938 372943 368947 361954 357956 352955 348955 345956
      341956 338954 332954 329952 323952 325949 341939 343932
      346927 348923 352919 364914 367911 372906 384888 378868
      385859 390849 395836 397830 399823 400818 403814 405801
      407796 411794 419789 423784 429781 432780 435785 437793
      439796 441795 442793 447788 449786 450781 452768 453762
      452755 453750 456744 460736 464722 454725 452723 451719
      450716 449711 450704 451698 458677 460651 463634 464627
      467621
 0.01 203761 205772 209777 211783 211790 212796 214800 217807
      218810 221813 226816 231820 236826 238828 240833 240839
      242843 243847 247851 259859 269865 283871 292874 301876
      307878 314881 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881 359876
      365873 370869 375864 380857 383848 384841 383827 381823
      378824 374829 369835 355841 350841 348837 346833 344831
      336828 332829 329829 328827 326819 326811 337802 339791
      340782 340777 343773 348766 353762 357755 358751 361747
      363742 368725 369721 368718 366718 356718 354719 352722
      346728 336738 331744 325748 310760 300768 295772 290773
      287772 271771 266771 261769 253765 247763 242760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541179 538177 525164 520159 515156 503149
      500146 496144 489142 488144 487151 484155 479152 467144
      464144 462146 459150 454158 451167 446172 448175 451176
      452178 454181 457182 463178 466173 469170 472171 475169
      479170 482169 486171 490173 492174 492178 487184 477190
      468200 466204 462204 457208 451212 440211 433209 426204
      420201 419206 421211 419217 413213 404212 397216 402221
      404223 403227 401229 397228 389226 384225 380226 376228
      380234 381237 384238 387241 391242 394245 398247 402249
      412257 420260 427260 435259 443259 450259 456258 464259
      471263 479268 483274 486284 490292 495296 500296 506295
      511289 515281 518270 520264 521257 523251 522246 521242
      521236 525230 529229 533225 538209 539200 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 449111 447109 441105 437105
      435107 434110 430113 424114 416115 410117 408119 408122
      412122 416125 417129 417136 416139 420142 424140 427134
      433128 439125 442123 444125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 451133 452129 454126 455120 457115
 0.01 391070 390067 388064 383062 380060 379055 374050 372048
      369048 364050 356053 344049 330044 317043 311043 307047
      288065 284068 278069 272069 267068 256063 249059 241056
      232053 228055 227062 230068 233072 239077 244080 249084
      253086 258090 263092 272100 277104 284107 305117 309118
      312120 317123 323123 327122 329119 332113 336117 339122
      342125 354131 358132 361130 366126 366121 361118 351112
      348110 347106 345099 348092 351088 352085 349081 345079
      342080 339080 336078 335075 336071 338068 343066 361068
      368069 371073 374080 377083 381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 526182 522175 516169 508167 505170
      503179 502184 501189 496197 489200 480202 467209 460210
      452215 446219 443222 443230 440235 437238 429242 423246
      424249 428251 437250 443252 447252 455251 462251 467251
      472253 480259 485266 490273 495280 498286 501287 504287
      509283 513274 517264 519256 519249 517239 513230 509222
      507215 507208 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210 532205
 0.25 498657 497649 494647 492648 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476748 477754 479757 483756 488748 493741
      496730 498719 499713 498708 497696 496682 497670 498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 438854 439848 438842 436840 433839 427843 422846 413855
      408868 400880 397887 396894 397899 399901 404900 410896
      415892 420888 423883 430871 436859 438854
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350742 347741 343745 339749 335754 329762 325771
      322776 318779 314784 310789 306791 301792 290793 282793
      277792 264789 256786 249780 242772 233763 227758 218754
      211755 208757 210764 212770 216780 220790 233809 240817
      242820 246822 252823 259823 264825 269827 272824 275820
      282814 282811 280810 275809 272809 270807 272805 277805
      295811 304814 310816 314816 316815 320811 322807 326797
      326786 332774 335771 339769 344760 349752 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342853 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298822 295826 292829 285830 280830
      275831 269833 266836 263838 261844 266854 273857 284859
      293862 312865 316867 323867 332868 337869 343867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516245 513234 503211 500205 497203 493202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446234 442236 439241 440244 442246 447248 456246
      462246 468247 472249 477251 481255 485261 491270 498281
      500285 504284 508281 511275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 429859 427854 424853 420855 419860 418865 416870 416875
      417877 420874 423870 425867 427862 429859
 0.50 335858 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835 309830
      304829 300830 298832 295835 287836 281838 279839 277843
      278846 281853 285855 292856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 265812 258809 260805 264802 268801 270799
      268797 260792 253787 240775 228763 219759 214760 213765
      217777 221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 252816
      261819 268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513247 511236 507226 502217 500213 496208
      490206 479208 472211 464215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 451235 447239 448243 453243 463241 467241
      471243 480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 502280 505279
      509270 510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 247789 245786 241783 238779 232772
      228768 224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797
      237800 239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510245 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 485211
      481211 477212 474214 479217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525167 522160 514153 494140 487133 482129 478127
      475134 473138 475139 481142 479146 476146 472143 466140
      460140 456142 449145 446149 444157 449161 448178 451183
      455183 465192 471192 474193 476195 478201 474206 466209
      453213 439211 435214 432219 427230 420232 415234 411240
      410244 412247 421247 426246 432247 445247 454255 466260
      468266 468273 474288 477294 483297 487301 489302 491300
      497289 507253 509244 511237 512229 511226 511223 513215
      516205 520199 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 508011 501005 496000 490000 487002 483005 478006
      477004 473003 466003 458005 449012 437023 435026 433031
      433042 431043 427044 422043 419047 415049 404049 399046
      394045 392043 388045 383046 379044 370045 363048 360049
      356047 353048 349050 343049 338047 331046 327044 324044
      323046 321050 323054 324060 323066 319074 311077 301075
      292069 287067 281067 271062 255054 252052 246051 238052
      234053 233055 232062 232073 247088 255091 261098 266103
      272110 278112 282115 286118 290120 295122 301124 306126
      312126 319123 329121 334121 335125 337130 340133 347135
      350139 354142 358141 365136 373129 378128 381126 388121
      396118 400116 404117 410116 416116 419116 422120 422125
      424129 428125 430121 434117 435120 434124 435130 439139
      444140 446138 448136 448131 462117 469110 473108 477102
      481095 482084 491068 493061 495059 493056 488054 488051
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492659 491654 487650 483646 476643 469646 466649
      465655 465665 463675 459683 455690 453694 452698 451703
      454708 455711 458712 461715 462720 467729 470729 473726
      476719 478707 480699 486692 490686 492682 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481049 478044 475039 470036 460036 455037 448037
      446049 439057 433057 429059 426059 425061 421065 415072
      414076 415078 416085 415100 414106 418106 421105 425102
      426096 428091 433090 442067 445069 448072 453075 458073
      465067 473058 476054 481054 485052
 0.01 428786 425772 424764 422757 419752 415750 410751 407754
      404755 402753 399749 394752 391760 390775 388780 384786
      379796 375798 369800 363802 359798 353792 353787 354784
      357778 361766 364760 366755 368748 368739 368731 366730
      362730 361729 354729 351729 348732 340740 321756 312764
      300770 291776 287778 281779 270784 261787 247791 242792
      239791 233788 229789 225794 225801 225809 232833 238841
      241843 246845 262861 272869 275875 274882 271892 269897
      266903 260911 256920 254926 253932 254935 252938 250940
      248943 250956 259962 264965 268967 272970 276972 282971
      286968 289965 291961 294956 297948 300936 303920 303913
      303908 306905 311903 313901 318896 321893 324888 327883
      330883 333886 339916 334927 331933 330936 330941 328947
      330950 339954 348948 352945 355945 367941 372940 376935
      380930 384926 389921 391915 402895 411876 414870 416865
      419858 421851 425836 427817 427801 427793 428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506163 503163
      496164 489165 487167 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      513193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507232 507226 506219 502213 496206 485206 481207
      477209 474211 468213 461216 460220 461223 464225 465224
      473221 477223 480226 477228 471231 466234 463241 463244
      466248 470251 474256 477266 480272 483277 486280 489282
      489284 490286 492283 494277 498267 501259 500254 499252
      499247 503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 347778 347770 345768 342769 336778 326790
      319797 311802 304803 295802 287798 283795 279794 270791
      261791 250794 245796 239795 235794 230796 228803 228811
      229816 233826 237834 242839 250843 255842 259839 262831
      264829 268830 273831 279831 286831 288833 293840 297847
      298853 301855 307847 311846 314843 318842 322843 332844
      340850 345850 350849 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304085 298080 283077 279087
      275087 268083 263081 259083 260088 269097 272100 280103
      286105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 307105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 515181 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169
      496174 496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 474217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470236 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482265
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344820 343814 340808 338800 339794 340786 339783
      335785 330789 324796 319802 313806 304807 295805 287802
      281798 275796 268794 262793 257794 243800 235797 231798
      229803 230813 232820 236829 241835 248839 255839 263824
      271825 275825 277822 270816 268813 269812 273812 276813
      282816 292818 299820 307822 316821 320821 324823 330828
      334832 338834 342831 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 268797 264797 259797 253798 249801 243803
      239801 236801 234803 232808 233816 238827 241831 246834
      250835 254834 256832 256827 255820 255814 257807 262805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 259800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 251832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 254805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.



DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 474621 475626 478635 482648 487634 490628 492626
      495627 498630 500635 504646 506654 509659 511676 513686
      513696 514712 515722 514730 512737 510746 504772 502783
      500794 498812 496825 496836 496842 495846 491859 491863
      489866 487870 481879 478883 475887 471888 471883 471873
      472865 472858 473855 473850 467838 463838 461840 458842
      456845 445863 435879 422898 415908 406916 400922 392928
      377938 372943 368947 361954 357956 352955 348955 345956
      341956 338954 332954 329952 323952 325949 341939 343932
      346927 348923 352919 364914 367911 372906 384888 378868
      385859 390849 395836 397830 399823 400818 403814 405801
      407796 411794 419789 423784 429781 432780 435785 437793
      439796 441795 442793 447788 449786 450781 452768 453762
      452755 453750 456744 460736 464722 454725 452723 451719
      450716 449711 450704 451698 458677 460651 463634 464627
      467621
 0.01 203761 205772 209777 211783 211790 212796 214800 217807
      218810 221813 226816 231820 236826 238828 240833 240839
      242843 243847 247851 259859 269865 283871 292874 301876
      307878 314881 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881 359876
      365873 370869 375864 380857 383848 384841 383827 381823
      378824 374829 369835 355841 350841 348837 346833 344831
      336828 332829 329829 328827 326819 326811 337802 339791
      340782 340777 343773 348766 353762 357755 358751 361747
      363742 368725 369721 368718 366718 356718 354719 352722
      346728 336738 331744 325748 310760 300768 295772 290773
      287772 271771 266771 261769 253765 247763 242760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541179 538177 525164 520159 515156 503149
      500146 496144 489142 488144 487151 484155 479152 467144
      464144 462146 459150 454158 451167 446172 448175 451176
      452178 454181 457182 463178 466173 469170 472171 475169
      479170 482169 486171 490173 492174 492178 487184 477190
      468200 466204 462204 457208 451212 440211 433209 426204
      420201 419206 421211 419217 413213 404212 397216 402221
      404223 403227 401229 397228 389226 384225 380226 376228
      380234 381237 384238 387241 391242 394245 398247 402249
      412257 420260 427260 435259 443259 450259 456258 464259
      471263 479268 483274 486284 490292 495296 500296 506295
      511289 515281 518270 520264 521257 523251 522246 521242
      521236 525230 529229 533225 538209 539200 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 449111 447109 441105 437105
      435107 434110 430113 424114 416115 410117 408119 408122
      412122 416125 417129 417136 416139 420142 424140 427134
      433128 439125 442123 444125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 451133 452129 454126 455120 457115
 0.01 391070 390067 388064 383062 380060 379055 374050 372048
      369048 364050 356053 344049 330044 317043 311043 307047
      288065 284068 278069 272069 267068 256063 249059 241056
      232053 228055 227062 230068 233072 239077 244080 249084
      253086 258090 263092 272100 277104 284107 305117 309118
      312120 317123 323123 327122 329119 332113 336117 339122
      342125 354131 358132 361130 366126 366121 361118 351112
      348110 347106 345099 348092 351088 352085 349081 345079
      342080 339080 336078 335075 336071 338068 343066 361068
      368069 371073 374080 377083 381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 526182 522175 516169 508167 505170
      503179 502184 501189 496197 489200 480202 467209 460210
      452215 446219 443222 443230 440235 437238 429242 423246
      424249 428251 437250 443252 447252 455251 462251 467251
      472253 480259 485266 490273 495280 498286 501287 504287
      509283 513274 517264 519256 519249 517239 513230 509222
      507215 507208 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210 532205
 0.25 498657 497649 494647 492648 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476748 477754 479757 483756 488748 493741
      496730 498719 499713 498708 497696 496682 497670 498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 438854 439848 438842 436840 433839 427843 422846 413855
      408868 400880 397887 396894 397899 399901 404900 410896
      415892 420888 423883 430871 436859 438854
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350742 347741 343745 339749 335754 329762 325771
      322776 318779 314784 310789 306791 301792 290793 282793
      277792 264789 256786 249780 242772 233763 227758 218754
      211755 208757 210764 212770 216780 220790 233809 240817
      242820 246822 252823 259823 264825 269827 272824 275820
      282814 282811 280810 275809 272809 270807 272805 277805
      295811 304814 310816 314816 316815 320811 322807 326797
      326786 332774 335771 339769 344760 349752 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342853 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298822 295826 292829 285830 280830
      275831 269833 266836 263838 261844 266854 273857 284859
      293862 312865 316867 323867 332868 337869 343867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516245 513234 503211 500205 497203 493202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446234 442236 439241 440244 442246 447248 456246
      462246 468247 472249 477251 481255 485261 491270 498281
      500285 504284 508281 511275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 429859 427854 424853 420855 419860 418865 416870 416875
      417877 420874 423870 425867 427862 429859
 0.50 335858 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835 309830
      304829 300830 298832 295835 287836 281838 279839 277843
      278846 281853 285855 292856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 265812 258809 260805 264802 268801 270799
      268797 260792 253787 240775 228763 219759 214760 213765
      217777 221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 252816
      261819 268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513247 511236 507226 502217 500213 496208
      490206 479208 472211 464215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 451235 447239 448243 453243 463241 467241
      471243 480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 502280 505279
      509270 510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 247789 245786 241783 238779 232772
      228768 224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797
      237800 239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510245 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 485211
      481211 477212 474214 479217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525167 522160 514153 494140 487133 482129 478127
      475134 473138 475139 481142 479146 476146 472143 466140
      460140 456142 449145 446149 444157 449161 448178 451183
      455183 465192 471192 474193 476195 478201 474206 466209
      453213 439211 435214 432219 427230 420232 415234 411240
      410244 412247 421247 426246 432247 445247 454255 466260
      468266 468273 474288 477294 483297 487301 489302 491300
      497289 507253 509244 511237 512229 511226 511223 513215
      516205 520199 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 508011 501005 496000 490000 487002 483005 478006
      477004 473003 466003 458005 449012 437023 435026 433031
      433042 431043 427044 422043 419047 415049 404049 399046
      394045 392043 388045 383046 379044 370045 363048 360049
      356047 353048 349050 343049 338047 331046 327044 324044
      323046 321050 323054 324060 323066 319074 311077 301075
      292069 287067 281067 271062 255054 252052 246051 238052
      234053 233055 232062 232073 247088 255091 261098 266103
      272110 278112 282115 286118 290120 295122 301124 306126
      312126 319123 329121 334121 335125 337130 340133 347135
      350139 354142 358141 365136 373129 378128 381126 388121
      396118 400116 404117 410116 416116 419116 422120 422125
      424129 428125 430121 434117 435120 434124 435130 439139
      444140 446138 448136 448131 462117 469110 473108 477102
      481095 482084 491068 493061 495059 493056 488054 488051
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492659 491654 487650 483646 476643 469646 466649
      465655 465665 463675 459683 455690 453694 452698 451703
      454708 455711 458712 461715 462720 467729 470729 473726
      476719 478707 480699 486692 490686 492682 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481049 478044 475039 470036 460036 455037 448037
      446049 439057 433057 429059 426059 425061 421065 415072
      414076 415078 416085 415100 414106 418106 421105 425102
      426096 428091 433090 442067 445069 448072 453075 458073
      465067 473058 476054 481054 485052
 0.01 428786 425772 424764 422757 419752 415750 410751 407754
      404755 402753 399749 394752 391760 390775 388780 384786
      379796 375798 369800 363802 359798 353792 353787 354784
      357778 361766 364760 366755 368748 368739 368731 366730
      362730 361729 354729 351729 348732 340740 321756 312764
      300770 291776 287778 281779 270784 261787 247791 242792
      239791 233788 229789 225794 225801 225809 232833 238841
      241843 246845 262861 272869 275875 274882 271892 269897
      266903 260911 256920 254926 253932 254935 252938 250940
      248943 250956 259962 264965 268967 272970 276972 282971
      286968 289965 291961 294956 297948 300936 303920 303913
      303908 306905 311903 313901 318896 321893 324888 327883
      330883 333886 339916 334927 331933 330936 330941 328947
      330950 339954 348948 352945 355945 367941 372940 376935
      380930 384926 389921 391915 402895 411876 414870 416865
      419858 421851 425836 427817 427801 427793 428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506163 503163
      496164 489165 487167 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      513193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507232 507226 506219 502213 496206 485206 481207
      477209 474211 468213 461216 460220 461223 464225 465224
      473221 477223 480226 477228 471231 466234 463241 463244
      466248 470251 474256 477266 480272 483277 486280 489282
      489284 490286 492283 494277 498267 501259 500254 499252
      499247 503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 347778 347770 345768 342769 336778 326790
      319797 311802 304803 295802 287798 283795 279794 270791
      261791 250794 245796 239795 235794 230796 228803 228811
      229816 233826 237834 242839 250843 255842 259839 262831
      264829 268830 273831 279831 286831 288833 293840 297847
      298853 301855 307847 311846 314843 318842 322843 332844
      340850 345850 350849 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304085 298080 283077 279087
      275087 268083 263081 259083 260088 269097 272100 280103
      286105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 307105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 515181 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169
      496174 496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 474217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470236 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482265
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344820 343814 340808 338800 339794 340786 339783
      335785 330789 324796 319802 313806 304807 295805 287802
      281798 275796 268794 262793 257794 243800 235797 231798
      229803 230813 232820 236829 241835 248839 255839 263824
      271825 275825 277822 270816 268813 269812 273812 276813
      282816 292818 299820 307822 316821 320821 324823 330828
      334832 338834 342831 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 268797 264797 259797 253798 249801 243803
      239801 236801 234803 232808 233816 238827 241831 246834
      250835 254834 256832 256827 255820 255814 257807 262805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 259800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 251832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 254805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.



DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 474621 475626 478635 482648 487634 490628 492626
      495627 498630 500635 504646 506654 509659 511676 513686
      513696 514712 515722 514730 512737 510746 504772 502783
      500794 498812 496825 496836 496842 495846 491859 491863
      489866 487870 481879 478883 475887 471888 471883 471873
      472865 472858 473855 473850 467838 463838 461840 458842
      456845 445863 435879 422898 415908 406916 400922 392928
      377938 372943 368947 361954 357956 352955 348955 345956
      341956 338954 332954 329952 323952 325949 341939 343932
      346927 348923 352919 364914 367911 372906 384888 378868
      385859 390849 395836 397830 399823 400818 403814 405801
      407796 411794 419789 423784 429781 432780 435785 437793
      439796 441795 442793 447788 449786 450781 452768 453762
      452755 453750 456744 460736 464722 454725 452723 451719
      450716 449711 450704 451698 458677 460651 463634 464627
      467621
 0.01 203761 205772 209777 211783 211790 212796 214800 217807
      218810 221813 226816 231820 236826 238828 240833 240839
      242843 243847 247851 259859 269865 283871 292874 301876
      307878 314881 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881 359876
      365873 370869 375864 380857 383848 384841 383827 381823
      378824 374829 369835 355841 350841 348837 346833 344831
      336828 332829 329829 328827 326819 326811 337802 339791
      340782 340777 343773 348766 353762 357755 358751 361747
      363742 368725 369721 368718 366718 356718 354719 352722
      346728 336738 331744 325748 310760 300768 295772 290773
      287772 271771 266771 261769 253765 247763 242760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541179 538177 525164 520159 515156 503149
      500146 496144 489142 488144 487151 484155 479152 467144
      464144 462146 459150 454158 451167 446172 448175 451176
      452178 454181 457182 463178 466173 469170 472171 475169
      479170 482169 486171 490173 492174 492178 487184 477190
      468200 466204 462204 457208 451212 440211 433209 426204
      420201 419206 421211 419217 413213 404212 397216 402221
      404223 403227 401229 397228 389226 384225 380226 376228
      380234 381237 384238 387241 391242 394245 398247 402249
      412257 420260 427260 435259 443259 450259 456258 464259
      471263 479268 483274 486284 490292 495296 500296 506295
      511289 515281 518270 520264 521257 523251 522246 521242
      521236 525230 529229 533225 538209 539200 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 449111 447109 441105 437105
      435107 434110 430113 424114 416115 410117 408119 408122
      412122 416125 417129 417136 416139 420142 424140 427134
      433128 439125 442123 444125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 451133 452129 454126 455120 457115
 0.01 391070 390067 388064 383062 380060 379055 374050 372048
      369048 364050 356053 344049 330044 317043 311043 307047
      288065 284068 278069 272069 267068 256063 249059 241056
      232053 228055 227062 230068 233072 239077 244080 249084
      253086 258090 263092 272100 277104 284107 305117 309118
      312120 317123 323123 327122 329119 332113 336117 339122
      342125 354131 358132 361130 366126 366121 361118 351112
      348110 347106 345099 348092 351088 352085 349081 345079
      342080 339080 336078 335075 336071 338068 343066 361068
      368069 371073 374080 377083 381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 526182 522175 516169 508167 505170
      503179 502184 501189 496197 489200 480202 467209 460210
      452215 446219 443222 443230 440235 437238 429242 423246
      424249 428251 437250 443252 447252 455251 462251 467251
      472253 480259 485266 490273 495280 498286 501287 504287
      509283 513274 517264 519256 519249 517239 513230 509222
      507215 507208 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210 532205
 0.25 498657 497649 494647 492648 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476748 477754 479757 483756 488748 493741
      496730 498719 499713 498708 497696 496682 497670 498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 438854 439848 438842 436840 433839 427843 422846 413855
      408868 400880 397887 396894 397899 399901 404900 410896
      415892 420888 423883 430871 436859 438854
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350742 347741 343745 339749 335754 329762 325771
      322776 318779 314784 310789 306791 301792 290793 282793
      277792 264789 256786 249780 242772 233763 227758 218754
      211755 208757 210764 212770 216780 220790 233809 240817
      242820 246822 252823 259823 264825 269827 272824 275820
      282814 282811 280810 275809 272809 270807 272805 277805
      295811 304814 310816 314816 316815 320811 322807 326797
      326786 332774 335771 339769 344760 349752 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342853 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298822 295826 292829 285830 280830
      275831 269833 266836 263838 261844 266854 273857 284859
      293862 312865 316867 323867 332868 337869 343867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516245 513234 503211 500205 497203 493202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446234 442236 439241 440244 442246 447248 456246
      462246 468247 472249 477251 481255 485261 491270 498281
      500285 504284 508281 511275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 429859 427854 424853 420855 419860 418865 416870 416875
      417877 420874 423870 425867 427862 429859
 0.50 335858 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835 309830
      304829 300830 298832 295835 287836 281838 279839 277843
      278846 281853 285855 292856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 265812 258809 260805 264802 268801 270799
      268797 260792 253787 240775 228763 219759 214760 213765
      217777 221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 252816
      261819 268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513247 511236 507226 502217 500213 496208
      490206 479208 472211 464215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 451235 447239 448243 453243 463241 467241
      471243 480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 502280 505279
      509270 510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 247789 245786 241783 238779 232772
      228768 224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797
      237800 239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510245 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 485211
      481211 477212 474214 479217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525167 522160 514153 494140 487133 482129 478127
      475134 473138 475139 481142 479146 476146 472143 466140
      460140 456142 449145 446149 444157 449161 448178 451183
      455183 465192 471192 474193 476195 478201 474206 466209
      453213 439211 435214 432219 427230 420232 415234 411240
      410244 412247 421247 426246 432247 445247 454255 466260
      468266 468273 474288 477294 483297 487301 489302 491300
      497289 507253 509244 511237 512229 511226 511223 513215
      516205 520199 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 508011 501005 496000 490000 487002 483005 478006
      477004 473003 466003 458005 449012 437023 435026 433031
      433042 431043 427044 422043 419047 415049 404049 399046
      394045 392043 388045 383046 379044 370045 363048 360049
      356047 353048 349050 343049 338047 331046 327044 324044
      323046 321050 323054 324060 323066 319074 311077 301075
      292069 287067 281067 271062 255054 252052 246051 238052
      234053 233055 232062 232073 247088 255091 261098 266103
      272110 278112 282115 286118 290120 295122 301124 306126
      312126 319123 329121 334121 335125 337130 340133 347135
      350139 354142 358141 365136 373129 378128 381126 388121
      396118 400116 404117 410116 416116 419116 422120 422125
      424129 428125 430121 434117 435120 434124 435130 439139
      444140 446138 448136 448131 462117 469110 473108 477102
      481095 482084 491068 493061 495059 493056 488054 488051
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492659 491654 487650 483646 476643 469646 466649
      465655 465665 463675 459683 455690 453694 452698 451703
      454708 455711 458712 461715 462720 467729 470729 473726
      476719 478707 480699 486692 490686 492682 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481049 478044 475039 470036 460036 455037 448037
      446049 439057 433057 429059 426059 425061 421065 415072
      414076 415078 416085 415100 414106 418106 421105 425102
      426096 428091 433090 442067 445069 448072 453075 458073
      465067 473058 476054 481054 485052
 0.01 428786 425772 424764 422757 419752 415750 410751 407754
      404755 402753 399749 394752 391760 390775 388780 384786
      379796 375798 369800 363802 359798 353792 353787 354784
      357778 361766 364760 366755 368748 368739 368731 366730
      362730 361729 354729 351729 348732 340740 321756 312764
      300770 291776 287778 281779 270784 261787 247791 242792
      239791 233788 229789 225794 225801 225809 232833 238841
      241843 246845 262861 272869 275875 274882 271892 269897
      266903 260911 256920 254926 253932 254935 252938 250940
      248943 250956 259962 264965 268967 272970 276972 282971
      286968 289965 291961 294956 297948 300936 303920 303913
      303908 306905 311903 313901 318896 321893 324888 327883
      330883 333886 339916 334927 331933 330936 330941 328947
      330950 339954 348948 352945 355945 367941 372940 376935
      380930 384926 389921 391915 402895 411876 414870 416865
      419858 421851 425836 427817 427801 427793 428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506163 503163
      496164 489165 487167 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      513193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507232 507226 506219 502213 496206 485206 481207
      477209 474211 468213 461216 460220 461223 464225 465224
      473221 477223 480226 477228 471231 466234 463241 463244
      466248 470251 474256 477266 480272 483277 486280 489282
      489284 490286 492283 494277 498267 501259 500254 499252
      499247 503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 347778 347770 345768 342769 336778 326790
      319797 311802 304803 295802 287798 283795 279794 270791
      261791 250794 245796 239795 235794 230796 228803 228811
      229816 233826 237834 242839 250843 255842 259839 262831
      264829 268830 273831 279831 286831 288833 293840 297847
      298853 301855 307847 311846 314843 318842 322843 332844
      340850 345850 350849 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304085 298080 283077 279087
      275087 268083 263081 259083 260088 269097 272100 280103
      286105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 307105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 515181 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169
      496174 496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 474217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470236 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482265
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344820 343814 340808 338800 339794 340786 339783
      335785 330789 324796 319802 313806 304807 295805 287802
      281798 275796 268794 262793 257794 243800 235797 231798
      229803 230813 232820 236829 241835 248839 255839 263824
      271825 275825 277822 270816 268813 269812 273812 276813
      282816 292818 299820 307822 316821 320821 324823 330828
      334832 338834 342831 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 268797 264797 259797 253798 249801 243803
      239801 236801 234803 232808 233816 238827 241831 246834
      250835 254834 256832 256827 255820 255814 257807 262805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 259800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 251832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 254805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 290833
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW HST 15 WNW OPF PBI 20 E PMP 15 E PMP 20 ESE FLL 35 E HST
40 ESE MTH 10 WSW KEY 25 WSW HST.


COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE FROM PERIODS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SEE THE LATEST
NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290833
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW HST 15 WNW OPF PBI 20 E PMP 15 E PMP 20 ESE FLL 35 E HST
40 ESE MTH 10 WSW KEY 25 WSW HST.


COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE FROM PERIODS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SEE THE LATEST
NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 290831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW HST 15 WNW OPF PBI 20 E PMP 15 E PMP 20 ESE FLL 35 E HST
40 ESE MTH 10 WSW KEY 25 WSW HST.


COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUE OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 290831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW HST 15 WNW OPF PBI 20 E PMP 15 E PMP 20 ESE FLL 35 E HST
40 ESE MTH 10 WSW KEY 25 WSW HST.


COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/FL KEYS

A SLIGHT RISK AREA DEPICTED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIKA.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY--ALONG WITH INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2.00-2.25"+.  STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA---BUT
RUNOFF ISSUE OVER URBANIZED AREAS POSSIBLE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525169 524165 522160 514152 512149 509149 505147
      501144 497143 494140 485132 482128 478127 474139 481142
      480146 476146 471142 464140 458140 454143 451144 449145
      445150 444157 449161 449166 448171 449179 450183 451184
      457182 465192 470192 473193 476195 477199 477203 473206
      469208 464209 453213 439211 435215 432220 426231 421232
      415234 411239 410244 412247 417248 422247 427245 434247
      445247 454255 461258 467261 469275 474288 477294 483297
      484300 488302 492299 498287 507253 512235 512228 510225
      511221 514212 516204 519200 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 510014 506009 500003 497000 493000 490000 486003
      482006 479006 477004 468003 463003 458005 449012 436025
      433028 433033 433038 431043 422043 417047 413049 404049
      399046 394045 391044 386047 377044 360049 341048 331046
      327044 324044 323046 322067 318075 309077 300074 292069
      288068 281067 271062 254053 249051 245051 241052 234053
      233056 232063 232070 234075 237078 239079 240082 247088
      256093 262099 267105 274111 293121 296123 303124 306126
      312126 321122 326121 331121 334121 335124 336128 338133
      343134 347136 350139 353142 357141 366135 373129 378128
      382125 389120 397118 402116 407117 411116 417116 420117
      422120 422126 424129 427126 430121 434117 435121 434124
      435132 440139 444140 448136 448134 449130 477102 479098
      481091 481087 483083 492065 494060 493056 488054 487052
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492658 490653 487650 483645 476643 469647 466650
      465655 465666 463675 459684 455690 452695 452699 452704
      454708 456712 458713 462717 462720 465727 467729 471729
      473726 476719 478707 480698 486692 491685 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481048 478044 474039 470036 448037 445050 439057
      432057 429059 423062 421065 414073 416085 415101 414103
      415106 421105 425102 426096 429091 433090 437084 437077
      438069 442067 446069 448073 454075 458073 465067 473058
      477054 482054 485052
 0.01 428786 425768 423760 421756 418751 414750 408751 405755
      397749 394752 392758 391767 390775 387781 384786 378797
      371799 367802 361801 358797 355794 353792 352788 356778
      361766 364760 367753 368748 368739 367734 368730 363730
      353728 345734 342739 338742 321756 313763 300770 296773
      289776 279781 273783 269785 257788 245792 241792 238791
      234789 232788 229789 225794 225800 225809 229824 233835
      239842 248847 264862 272869 275875 274882 270895 265905
      259913 255923 253929 254936 250939 248943 250956 259962
      264966 270968 274971 279972 284970 288967 290964 292959
      297949 300936 303920 303912 303908 306905 311903 315898
      319896 322891 328882 332884 334890 335893 336896 337904
      339916 334927 332930 331933 330936 330941 328943 328947
      329950 333951 337954 341952 349947 354944 357945 369941
      373938 377933 382929 386925 389920 391915 394911 398904
      400898 403894 413873 417863 420856 422848 425836 427817
      428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506162 503163
      496164 489165 487168 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      514193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507231 507225 505217 502213 499209 495206 485206
      480207 477209 472212 468213 464214 460217 460221 462224
      465224 474221 478224 479226 477228 470231 466235 463241
      463245 466249 471252 474256 478267 480273 483277 487280
      489282 490285 491283 494277 499266 501257 499252 499247
      503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 346786 347776 346769 343769 341771 336778
      326791 318798 311802 305804 303803 294802 279794 269791
      260791 249794 244796 239795 234794 229796 228800 228805
      228812 229816 233826 237834 242839 247842 252843 255842
      259839 262830 265829 269830 273831 279831 285831 288833
      293841 297849 299854 302854 307847 315843 319842 323843
      333845 340850 346850 351848 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304084 298080 283077 279087
      274087 268083 262081 259083 260088 269097 273100 280103
      287105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 308105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169 496174
      496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 475217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470237 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482266
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344818 343813 339806 338801 339795 340786 338783
      334785 330790 325796 319802 312806 303807 294805 287802
      281798 274795 266793 257794 248798 242799 238797 233797
      231799 229803 230814 232821 236830 241835 248839 251839
      256838 258835 259831 259825 263824 272825 276825 276821
      270816 268813 269812 284816 292818 299820 308822 317820
      321821 325823 330828 334833 339834 341832 343829 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 264797 259797 253798 248801 243803 239801
      235801 234803 232808 233816 235822 238827 241831 246834
      251835 255834 256832 256826 255820 255814 257807 263805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 258800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 252832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 255805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525169 524165 522160 514152 512149 509149 505147
      501144 497143 494140 485132 482128 478127 474139 481142
      480146 476146 471142 464140 458140 454143 451144 449145
      445150 444157 449161 449166 448171 449179 450183 451184
      457182 465192 470192 473193 476195 477199 477203 473206
      469208 464209 453213 439211 435215 432220 426231 421232
      415234 411239 410244 412247 417248 422247 427245 434247
      445247 454255 461258 467261 469275 474288 477294 483297
      484300 488302 492299 498287 507253 512235 512228 510225
      511221 514212 516204 519200 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 510014 506009 500003 497000 493000 490000 486003
      482006 479006 477004 468003 463003 458005 449012 436025
      433028 433033 433038 431043 422043 417047 413049 404049
      399046 394045 391044 386047 377044 360049 341048 331046
      327044 324044 323046 322067 318075 309077 300074 292069
      288068 281067 271062 254053 249051 245051 241052 234053
      233056 232063 232070 234075 237078 239079 240082 247088
      256093 262099 267105 274111 293121 296123 303124 306126
      312126 321122 326121 331121 334121 335124 336128 338133
      343134 347136 350139 353142 357141 366135 373129 378128
      382125 389120 397118 402116 407117 411116 417116 420117
      422120 422126 424129 427126 430121 434117 435121 434124
      435132 440139 444140 448136 448134 449130 477102 479098
      481091 481087 483083 492065 494060 493056 488054 487052
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492658 490653 487650 483645 476643 469647 466650
      465655 465666 463675 459684 455690 452695 452699 452704
      454708 456712 458713 462717 462720 465727 467729 471729
      473726 476719 478707 480698 486692 491685 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481048 478044 474039 470036 448037 445050 439057
      432057 429059 423062 421065 414073 416085 415101 414103
      415106 421105 425102 426096 429091 433090 437084 437077
      438069 442067 446069 448073 454075 458073 465067 473058
      477054 482054 485052
 0.01 428786 425768 423760 421756 418751 414750 408751 405755
      397749 394752 392758 391767 390775 387781 384786 378797
      371799 367802 361801 358797 355794 353792 352788 356778
      361766 364760 367753 368748 368739 367734 368730 363730
      353728 345734 342739 338742 321756 313763 300770 296773
      289776 279781 273783 269785 257788 245792 241792 238791
      234789 232788 229789 225794 225800 225809 229824 233835
      239842 248847 264862 272869 275875 274882 270895 265905
      259913 255923 253929 254936 250939 248943 250956 259962
      264966 270968 274971 279972 284970 288967 290964 292959
      297949 300936 303920 303912 303908 306905 311903 315898
      319896 322891 328882 332884 334890 335893 336896 337904
      339916 334927 332930 331933 330936 330941 328943 328947
      329950 333951 337954 341952 349947 354944 357945 369941
      373938 377933 382929 386925 389920 391915 394911 398904
      400898 403894 413873 417863 420856 422848 425836 427817
      428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506162 503163
      496164 489165 487168 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      514193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507231 507225 505217 502213 499209 495206 485206
      480207 477209 472212 468213 464214 460217 460221 462224
      465224 474221 478224 479226 477228 470231 466235 463241
      463245 466249 471252 474256 478267 480273 483277 487280
      489282 490285 491283 494277 499266 501257 499252 499247
      503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 346786 347776 346769 343769 341771 336778
      326791 318798 311802 305804 303803 294802 279794 269791
      260791 249794 244796 239795 234794 229796 228800 228805
      228812 229816 233826 237834 242839 247842 252843 255842
      259839 262830 265829 269830 273831 279831 285831 288833
      293841 297849 299854 302854 307847 315843 319842 323843
      333845 340850 346850 351848 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304084 298080 283077 279087
      274087 268083 262081 259083 260088 269097 273100 280103
      287105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 308105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169 496174
      496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 475217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470237 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482266
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344818 343813 339806 338801 339795 340786 338783
      334785 330790 325796 319802 312806 303807 294805 287802
      281798 274795 266793 257794 248798 242799 238797 233797
      231799 229803 230814 232821 236830 241835 248839 251839
      256838 258835 259831 259825 263824 272825 276825 276821
      270816 268813 269812 284816 292818 299820 308822 317820
      321821 325823 330828 334833 339834 341832 343829 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 264797 259797 253798 248801 243803 239801
      235801 234803 232808 233816 235822 238827 241831 246834
      251835 255834 256832 256826 255820 255814 257807 263805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 258800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 252832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 255805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


DAYS 2/3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF POST FRONTAL ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON DAY 2.  BY DAY
3...STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A BROAD AND GENERALLY
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE WITH RESULTING ONSHORE
FLOW.  WPC VALUES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF
WASHINGTON...WITH THE NAM RECEIVING THE GREATEST WEIGHTING GIVEN
ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND ROLE OF TERRAIN.

OH/TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

MODELS DEPICT 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMPRISING THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH-TN VALLEYS DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH ONE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A SECOND
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THE WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WEAK
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  THUS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  USED A MEAN
POSITION FOR THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT ALIGNS MOST CLOSELY
WITH THE 00Z GFS.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ERICA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON DAY 2 WHEN ERICA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE KEYS.  MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS
GENERALLY JOINING THE 00Z GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE MID
LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERICA TO SUPPORT 2 AXES OF QPF...ONE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EVEN
FURTHER WITH VARIOUS TRACKS AND INTENSITIES GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN AS A WHOLE.  THUS...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE
12Z ECMWF WHICH ALSO ALIGNED REASONABLY WELL WITH THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FORMED THE BASIS OF THE QPF.  THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO CONTINUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAY
2 FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DESPITE THE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES.


SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAYS 2/3.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN POOR...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF USED TO DERIVE THE QPF.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525174 525169 524165 522160 514152 512149 509149 505147
      501144 497143 494140 485132 482128 478127 474139 481142
      480146 476146 471142 464140 458140 454143 451144 449145
      445150 444157 449161 449166 448171 449179 450183 451184
      457182 465192 470192 473193 476195 477199 477203 473206
      469208 464209 453213 439211 435215 432220 426231 421232
      415234 411239 410244 412247 417248 422247 427245 434247
      445247 454255 461258 467261 469275 474288 477294 483297
      484300 488302 492299 498287 507253 512235 512228 510225
      511221 514212 516204 519200 522192 523181 525174
 0.01 511019 510014 506009 500003 497000 493000 490000 486003
      482006 479006 477004 468003 463003 458005 449012 436025
      433028 433033 433038 431043 422043 417047 413049 404049
      399046 394045 391044 386047 377044 360049 341048 331046
      327044 324044 323046 322067 318075 309077 300074 292069
      288068 281067 271062 254053 249051 245051 241052 234053
      233056 232063 232070 234075 237078 239079 240082 247088
      256093 262099 267105 274111 293121 296123 303124 306126
      312126 321122 326121 331121 334121 335124 336128 338133
      343134 347136 350139 353142 357141 366135 373129 378128
      382125 389120 397118 402116 407117 411116 417116 420117
      422120 422126 424129 427126 430121 434117 435121 434124
      435132 440139 444140 448136 448134 449130 477102 479098
      481091 481087 483083 492065 494060 493056 488054 487052
      490051 502035 507027 511019
 0.01 494671 492658 490653 487650 483645 476643 469647 466650
      465655 465666 463675 459684 455690 452695 452699 452704
      454708 456712 458713 462717 462720 465727 467729 471729
      473726 476719 478707 480698 486692 491685 493676 494671
 0.01 485052 481048 478044 474039 470036 448037 445050 439057
      432057 429059 423062 421065 414073 416085 415101 414103
      415106 421105 425102 426096 429091 433090 437084 437077
      438069 442067 446069 448073 454075 458073 465067 473058
      477054 482054 485052
 0.01 428786 425768 423760 421756 418751 414750 408751 405755
      397749 394752 392758 391767 390775 387781 384786 378797
      371799 367802 361801 358797 355794 353792 352788 356778
      361766 364760 367753 368748 368739 367734 368730 363730
      353728 345734 342739 338742 321756 313763 300770 296773
      289776 279781 273783 269785 257788 245792 241792 238791
      234789 232788 229789 225794 225800 225809 229824 233835
      239842 248847 264862 272869 275875 274882 270895 265905
      259913 255923 253929 254936 250939 248943 250956 259962
      264966 270968 274971 279972 284970 288967 290964 292959
      297949 300936 303920 303912 303908 306905 311903 315898
      319896 322891 328882 332884 334890 335893 336896 337904
      339916 334927 332930 331933 330936 330941 328943 328947
      329950 333951 337954 341952 349947 354944 357945 369941
      373938 377933 382929 386925 389920 391915 394911 398904
      400898 403894 413873 417863 420856 422848 425836 427817
      428786
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 517188 518182 518176 514171 512166 510164 506162 503163
      496164 489165 487168 487172 491180 497185 504189 510192
      514193 516190 517188
 0.25 506239 507231 507225 505217 502213 499209 495206 485206
      480207 477209 472212 468213 464214 460217 460221 462224
      465224 474221 478224 479226 477228 470231 466235 463241
      463245 466249 471252 474256 478267 480273 483277 487280
      489282 490285 491283 494277 499266 501257 499252 499247
      503246 506239
 0.25 455221 454218 451216 447216 445216 442217 440218 438220
      436223 435225 435228 438228 440228 442227 445226 448225
      450224 453223 455221
 0.25 403072 399069 392067 385067 380067 377067 375069 372075
      372082 377086 382089 389089 393087 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 402816 402806 400797 398791 394791 390796 388802 386809
      384815 384822 387827 390828 394827 399823 401818 402816
 0.25 388842 389840 389838 387837 386837 384837 382838 380838
      379839 380840 382841 384842 385843 386843 388843 388842
 0.25 355841 343796 346786 347776 346769 343769 341771 336778
      326791 318798 311802 305804 303803 294802 279794 269791
      260791 249794 244796 239795 234794 229796 228800 228805
      228812 229816 233826 237834 242839 247842 252843 255842
      259839 262830 265829 269830 273831 279831 285831 288833
      293841 297849 299854 302854 307847 315843 319842 323843
      333845 340850 346850 351848 355841
 0.25 343103 344094 345090 344087 339083 336080 331076 328077
      327079 328085 329092 328096 330099 334102 340104 343103
 0.25 312101 313096 311094 308089 304084 298080 283077 279087
      274087 268083 262081 259083 260088 269097 273100 280103
      287105 290104 292102 294096 299101 303104 308105 310104
      312101
 0.50 515184 514179 512175 510170 506166 502168 498169 496174
      496177 498179 501181 505184 508185 512184 515184
 0.50 504239 506232 505226 504221 502215 496209 488210 479210
      473215 475217 480220 485226 491234 493238 497241 500243
      502244 504241 504239
 0.50 497265 499260 497255 495246 492240 486233 482234 478231
      472234 470237 469243 471246 474248 478254 480262 482266
      486269 493269 497265
 0.50 472218 471216 470217 468217 466216 465216 464217 463218
      462218 462221 464222 466222 467221 469221 470220 471219
      472218
 0.50 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445220 443219 442220
      441220 439221 439224 439225 441225 443224 444223 445223
      446221 448222 449222 450221 451220
 0.50 392077 390075 388074 387074 385073 383073 381073 381074
      379075 379076 379078 379079 381081 382082 384083 385083
      386082 387081 388081 390080 391080 392078 392077
 0.50 344825 344818 343813 339806 338801 339795 340786 338783
      334785 330790 325796 319802 312806 303807 294805 287802
      281798 274795 266793 257794 248798 242799 238797 233797
      231799 229803 230814 232821 236830 241835 248839 251839
      256838 258835 259831 259825 263824 272825 276825 276821
      270816 268813 269812 284816 292818 299820 308822 317820
      321821 325823 330828 334833 339834 341832 343829 344825
 0.50 339093 339091 337089 337088 336086 335085 334084 333084
      334085 334086 335088 335091 336093 337093 338094 339093
 1.00 503239 503233 502228 501222 498217 495215 492215 487215
      484217 486220 491224 492229 493233 496237 499240 502240
      503239
 1.00 494259 494254 493251 493247 491244 489242 487240 485240
      483245 482247 483250 484253 485256 487259 489260 491260
      494259
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235
      474236 474237 473239 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 272803 270799 264797 259797 253798 248801 243803 239801
      235801 234803 232808 233816 235822 238827 241831 246834
      251835 255834 256832 256826 255820 255814 257807 263805
      270804 272803
 1.50 502238 501235 500231 500227 499224 498221 495219 493220
      492225 493227 493230 495233 497237 499238 502238
 1.50 491255 492253 492250 492248 491246 490245 490244 488243
      487243 486243 485246 485248 485250 486251 486254 487254
      488257 490256 491255
 1.50 260803 258800 254801 248804 244806 241805 237804 234808
      235814 237822 241828 247831 252832 254830 254825 253822
      251819 250814 252808 255805 259803 260803
 2.00 499235 499232 498230 498229 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 493222 493225 494227 494228 495231 496233 497234
      498235 499235
 2.00 490253 491250 491249 489247 488248 487249 487251 488254
      488255 489254 490253 490253
 2.00 253826 251822 248818 247815 248810 249808 243809 239807
      237807 236810 237816 239820 241824 243827 249828 252828
      253826

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522184 524172 523164 519159 514156 508152 501151 495150
      493150 490152 483163 484171 482181 480189 476194 472198
      468204 461215 460220 458222 456229 454239 452242 451246
      453252 457257 477274 484277 491279 495278 499272 505258
      510241 513222 515211 517204 522184
 0.01 535968 533961 526961 517966 507972 499980 492989 490995
      490005 493009 499008 508001 515994 524986 528982 531977
      535968
 0.01 533920 533912 531907 526899 522896 519899 516910 516915
      515918 514921 512923 508925 504926 500929 497931 494942
      486964 475979 484979 492976 496974 500971 506965 517947
      527931 533920
 0.01 502911 501908 498906 494909 488914 484919 481923 480927
      479931 479937 480941 482942 488939 492932 496926 499919
      502911
 0.01 477686 474679 470679 467682 462687 457693 454700 453705
      453710 458717 461717 465715 469709 473703 476696 477686
 0.01 487881 485875 482874 476880 468885 463891 454904 448911
      443918 440923 438928 433935 428944 424952 418969 414978
      410987 405997 401005 398009 394010 387015 375023 371025
      368030 362036 356042 353044 347046 343047 338047 329047
      325048 320048 318050 319052 319056 321060 317064 313069
      302071 291070 286069 282071 278077 278085 278090 280095
      285102 291108 294112 297115 305119 323118 331114 336115
      341114 347112 355109 359107 362103 365094 367092 370091
      373089 381089 385090 387093 390096 393094 401090 405089
      410091 413090 416086 418083 418076 417066 421059 425051
      429042 428039 424036 418031 411026 411022 413017 417008
      420997 424990 427981 430973 433968 435964 445945 453929
      472900 487881
 0.01 426803 424784 422782 418782 416774 414755 414748 415746
      415741 414736 412734 409734 407737 401748 398754 396760
      396768 394775 391781 387786 382789 378794 374799 371804
      364814 360820 358825 356830 360834 366838 373837 383832
      392831 395837 396839 399841 405841 410837 413832 417828
      420823 424811 424805 426803
 0.01 398917 398910 394910 391911 387915 385918 383922 382927
      382932 386934 389934 393929 395927 396922 398917
 0.01 369761 364749 357746 356741 355733 353726 351722 346718
      344717 341717 336725 335732 336740 335752 333765 330776
      328781 326785 322789 318791 307796 302798 297798 286797
      277795 264793 257794 251795 247797 245801 242805 240811
      242823 246833 250842 257850 265857 273862 281858 291862
      295864 300866 305864 308861 315852 323848 329850 334850
      338847 339843 342829 341816 341811 342808 345803 350794
      361777 369761
 0.01 373918 373911 371907 369905 366907 360912 355919 351927
      346930 344932 343937 343941 345945 348947 354947 356945
      361938 365936 368932 372925 373918
 0.01 303941 304933 303928 300916 297910 295907 291903 288905
      285910 286915 285919 282923 279927 276931 273941 273949
      275954 278957 283958 281963 277965 273967 266967 257963
      255967 255974 258978 262980 267981 273980 282976 285972
      287968 292960 295955 299952 302946 303941
 0.25 514187 516179 517172 515166 511163 508161 504161 500162
      499167 498175 498180 501185 504187 508190 511191 514188
      514187
 0.25 506242 506237 506233 504223 503216 502212 500209 494207
      488205 482207 476210 472214 470218 470223 473229 472231
      469233 467234 466238 467242 469244 475248 480253 485257
      491257 495257 497253 499253 502251 504248 506242
 0.25 408063 408059 407057 405054 397049 388047 379047 369047
      365049 362052 365056 369057 374059 379059 387063 389067
      392070 396072 399070 403068 406065 408063
 0.25 348083 346079 343077 340076 335080 328081 326085 322090
      319085 312084 304084 300086 297093 299099 303102 310104
      315105 319102 326094 330093 332094 338097 344096 346094
      347090 348083
 0.25 329794 328791 326792 322795 313800 301802 291803 286804
      283806 284808 290815 298820 302822 307823 313822 318820
      322817 323812 327802 329794
 0.25 309846 308840 306836 299830 291826 281825 272822 269818
      268815 269812 272809 276807 276803 272799 268798 263797
      258797 252799 247802 245805 243809 242815 244821 247824
      250834 255843 261850 268854 280854 290856 295856 300855
      306851 309846
 0.50 513181 514179 514176 513174 513173 513171 512170 511169
      509168 507168 506168 505169 504170 503171 503173 503175
      504176 505179 506181 508182 509184 511184 511183 513181
      513181
 0.50 501246 503241 504236 502229 498216 494212 489211 482211
      477212 474217 476223 481223 483225 483229 481232 476232
      471236 473242 484249 487248 488246 490243 493245 498248
      501246
 0.50 378051 377051 376050 374051 376051 377051 378051
 0.50 312096 313094 311092 309091 308091 306091 306092 304093
      304094 303095 304095 305097 307097 309097 311097 312096
 0.50 312811 311805 307805 302806 296807 293809 291807 293811
      295815 299817 303818 308816 311813 312811
 0.50 303844 303838 300835 297832 293831 287831 283830 276827
      268823 263819 258813 265807 268804 268801 265799 259799
      253800 249802 245809 244813 244818 249824 252835 257842
      262848 269851 289852 298851 302848 303844
 1.00 494228 495223 495220 493217 490215 487214 484214 482215
      480216 481218 485220 486220 489223 491226 492228 494228
 1.00 479241 480239 479237 477236 475237 475239 476240 477241
      478241 479241
 1.00 289843 288838 285835 278831 270828 263825 255820 253818
      250818 251822 252828 255836 261843 268847 272848 278848
      283847 287845 289843
 1.50 491219 490218 488217 487217 485217 484217 485217 487218
      488219 490221 491219
 1.50 282842 282837 280835 275832 270830 265828 260826 255826
      255830 256834 259838 263841 268845 274846 279844 282842
 2.00 279840 278836 275833 271832 267831 263829 258828 258833
      260836 263839 266841 270843 275843 279840 279840
 3.00 274838 274836 273836 271836 269836 269835 268835 266835
      268837 270837 271838 273838 273839 274838

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 290647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LARGE
SCALE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON HEAVY RAINS FROM THE WA
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE---WA COAST RANGE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  OVERALL THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN REGIONS THE WA
CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE

LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKEN DAY 1.  WITH
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THE RECENT
WELL DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DAY 1.   MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY EARLY DAY 1---FROM THE
LOWER LAKES---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID WEST AND
TOWARD THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.

FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY DAY 1.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL REGION---INTO
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN GA.

FLORIDA

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER TROF---SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE LATE DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS PW
VALUES INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF ERICKA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA.  CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 475625 478635 482648 486634 490629 494626 498630
      500635 503641 505648 509659 511676 513685 513696 514712
      515722 514730 512736 511744 504770 502783 500794 498811
      496825 496835 496844 492856 491863 489867 483877 480882
      477885 473888 471887 471883 473850 467839 458849 455852
      452858 447867 444871 441875 435883 421900 415908 405917
      391929 383934 378937 375940 371944 367949 359954 357956
      354956 347955 342956 337954 331954 327952 323951 326948
      328945 332945 334943 336943 339941 341936 346925 350921
      353919 365913 373905 384889 384885 382882 380877 378872
      378868 380866 386857 390847 396834 398828 399822 401817
      403813 405800 407796 412793 422787 425783 430780 434782
      436789 439796 444792 448787 450783 450780 452767 453761
      452755 460733 463728 464723 461721 457724 454725 452723
      450716 449709 452696 455685 458680 458674 459660 460646
      463633 464627 467621
 0.01 203761 205771 209777 211783 211789 212795 214798 215804
      217807 218810 220812 226816 231820 236826 238829 240833
      240839 242844 243847 246851 258859 269865 283871 299876
      304877 308878 314882 320885 327887 334886 343885 351881
      358877 370869 375864 380857 384841 383829 381823 379823
      374828 370833 367837 363838 360840 355841 351841 348837
      346833 344831 336828 334829 328829 326820 325814 326810
      337802 339782 340778 342774 347767 352762 356756 359748
      363742 368725 369721 368718 362719 358718 354719 352721
      347727 336738 331743 325748 312759 300768 295772 291773
      287772 271771 265771 263769 258768 254765 243760 237755
      231751 219745
 0.01 540197 542183 541178 539177 526165 516157 503149 501147
      496144 494142 489142 488144 487152 483155 479152 474150
      470145 465144 463146 459150 454158 451166 446172 448175
      452178 455182 461180 465173 468171 472171 475169 479170
      482169 486170 492176 491180 488184 476191 468200 457208
      451212 441212 433209 427205 425203 421202 419203 419206
      420210 420217 413213 404212 398215 397218 400219 403222
      404226 402228 398228 389226 381225 376228 380235 386240
      399247 406251 408254 412257 420260 427260 435259 442258
      450259 455258 459258 464259 471263 478267 483274 486283
      489291 495296 500296 506295 511289 515282 518270 520265
      521258 522253 523248 521243 521237 525230 527227 528229
      533225 538210 539201 540197
 0.01 457115 456112 453110 451111 447109 442105 437105 435107
      434110 431112 424114 416115 413115 410117 408119 408122
      412123 416125 417129 417135 416139 420142 423140 427134
      433129 439125 442123 443125 442127 441131 443135 446135
      449134 452132 452129 457115
 0.01 391070 391068 388064 383062 376051 371048 366050 356053
      344049 331044 323043 315042 311043 307047 298056 290065
      284068 278069 273069 267068 243057 232053 229054 228056
      227062 229068 233072 243080 253086 263092 272100 277104
      284107 295112 305117 309118 312120 317123 324123 329120
      331114 334114 335116 338121 342125 354131 358132 360130
      363129 366126 367121 362118 351112 348110 347106 345099
      349091 352086 350081 346079 343080 339080 336078 335075
      335071 338068 343066 360067 367068 371073 374080 377083
      381079 386077 391070
 0.25 532205 532197 531194 529187 527183 523176 516169 508167
      505169 503178 502185 501189 496197 489200 481202 467209
      460210 452215 445220 443223 443230 440234 437238 430242
      426243 423245 424248 428251 437250 446252 455251 462251
      467251 471253 479259 485266 490273 495280 497285 500287
      503287 509283 513274 517264 519257 519250 517240 513230
      509222 507216 507209 509205 514206 521211 525212 528210
      532205
 0.25 498657 497649 495647 491649 489653 486664 485674 482696
      480721 476742 476747 476753 479757 483756 488749 493741
      496730 498719 499714 498708 497696 496682 496676 497670
      498657
 0.25 490234 489234 488231 487229 485229 484228 482228 480228
      480229 481230 482232 483234 485233 486233 487233 488234
      489234 490234
 0.25 430864 430855 427852 419856 414855 412859 407870 402878
      399883 397889 396896 399901 403901 406899 414891 421884
      425881 427876 430864
 0.25 414837 414835 413833 412831 412828 410830 409831 408832
      408833 408836 408838 408840 409842 410842 411843 413843
      413842 413840 414838 414837
 0.25 351747 350743 348741 343745 336754 330761 325771 322776
      318779 310788 306791 301792 290793 282793 277792 265789
      256786 249780 234764 226758 218754 211755 208757 212769
      216780 220790 232808 239816 242820 246822 252823 259823
      269827 272824 275820 282814 280810 275809 271809 270806
      276804 285807 295811 304814 310816 316815 320811 322807
      326797 326786 331775 335771 340768 344760 349753 351747
 0.25 346864 346858 342854 338846 331839 323838 318835 315830
      311822 306820 301821 298823 295826 292829 286830 280830
      275831 269833 266835 262839 261844 266853 269856 273857
      284859 293862 312865 332868 337869 342867 346864
 0.25 311098 312095 311092 310087 307080 300074 296072 291072
      285077 277080 273082 273087 275091 278094 285098 291098
      294097 300092 305098 311098
 0.50 528199 524194 522188 519181 517176 512171 507172 506182
      507190 510194 516197 519198 522198 525201 528199
 0.50 516262 517254 516246 513234 503211 500205 497203 494202
      483204 474207 466212 456215 452218 451221 451224 452228
      451230 446233 442236 439241 439244 442246 447248 456246
      467246 473249 477251 481255 485261 491270 497281 500285
      504284 508281 510275 516262 516262
 0.50 491235 490232 488229 487227 484226 480225 478225 477227
      478228 480231 481234 482237 484236 486235 489236 491235
 0.50 490718 490716 489714 489713 487714 486717 485720 484723
      483725 484728 485729 487727 488724 489721 490721 490718
 0.50 335858 336856 335854 333852 329848 320842 316838 313835
      309831 304829 300830 298831 295835 281838 279839 277842
      278846 281852 285855 291856 298856 306856 311858 324859
      330860 335858
 0.50 272818 271814 266812 258809 260805 264802 269800 268797
      260793 253787 240775 228763 220759 214760 213765 217776
      221784 225794 231800 237808 243813 246815 251816 261819
      268820 272818
 1.00 510265 513257 513248 511236 507227 502217 500213 496208
      490206 480208 472211 465215 457217 455218 455221 458227
      458232 455233 447238 449243 453243 462241 466241 471243
      480249 486256 491266 496273 499278 501280 504279 509270
      510265
 1.00 497244 494239 492232 489227 484223 478222 472223 469228
      471231 475230 478231 480233 482240 486237 490240 494246
      496247 497244
 1.00 256801 253796 251794 245786 241783 238779 232772 228768
      224766 220766 218770 223779 227791 229794 233797 237800
      239804 249808 254805 256801
 1.50 509257 510252 510246 509238 504226 499215 494210 491209
      484209 479210 474212 471216 477219 483221 489224 492229
      494236 497241 502253 503257 505258 508259 509257
 1.50 503273 504264 502261 499258 496255 493248 490244 486243
      485245 484248 485250 488255 491261 494267 497271 501274
      503273
 1.50 481244 481242 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 472234 471236 471239 472239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466218 464218 463218 462219
      461219 459220 459221 458222 459222 460223 462224 463224
      464224 465223 467222 467221 469220 469219 471218
 1.50 233788 232786 230785 228787 230788 230789 232789 233788
 2.00 507248 507241 506237 502227 498218 495214 491212 486210
      481211 477212 474214 478217 483219 488220 491224 494233
      499241 504249 507248
 2.00 496262 494260 493261 494263 496262 496262
 2.00 479241 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      473236 473239 473240 475241 476242 478243 479241
 3.00 485215 484214 482213 481214 482215 484215 485215
 3.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 475237 477239 477238

$$




000
NZUS99 KLUB 290449
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290503
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290449
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290503
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290438
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290453
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290429
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290443
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290429
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290443
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290418
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290433
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290418
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290433
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290408
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290423
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1108 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290408
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290423
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1108 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290405
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290419
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1104 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290403
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290417
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290403
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1048 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290328
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1028 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290343
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1028 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 93 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290318
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290333
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290309
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290309
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290305
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290319
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1004 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290305
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290319
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1004 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290303
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290303
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
948 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
948 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290228
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290243
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
928 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290219
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290209
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290223
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
908 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290205
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290219
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290205
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290219
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290203
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290217
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290148
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290203
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
848 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
838 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
838 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
838 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
838 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290128
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290143
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 92 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
818 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 91 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 9 tenths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 9 tenths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 88 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 88 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290103
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 88 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290103
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
802 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 88 hundredths,

$$



000
FOUS30 KWBC 290100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 01Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNE GBG MPZ OTM
15 SW TNU 25 E EBS DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 01Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNE GBG MPZ OTM
15 SW TNU 25 E EBS DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 290100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 01Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNE GBG MPZ OTM
15 SW TNU 25 E EBS DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 290100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 01Z SAT AUG 29 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNE GBG MPZ OTM
15 SW TNU 25 E EBS DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
NZUS99 KLUB 290048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
748 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 85 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
748 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 85 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290039
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 78 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290039
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 78 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290029
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 76 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290029
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 76 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290019
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
718 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 71 hundredths,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 290019
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-290033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
718 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Olton 71 hundredths,

$$



000
FOUS30 KWBC 282312
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 21Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 282312
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 21Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 282312
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 21Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 282312
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
711 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 21Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 282257
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR




...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A SHORT LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WEAK WITH THE SHORT
WAVE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO STRONG. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CONTINUITY...AND SOME OF THE DETAILS OF
THE QPF MAXIMUM WERE BASED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM.

CONVECTION IS REFIRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MCS
CROSSING EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BACKBUILDING OCCURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (IN THE FORM OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CENTRAL IA) SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 29/06Z...AND THE LATEST
NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEWLY FORMING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS PEAKING OVER EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI IN THE 29/00Z THROUGH 29/06Z TIME FRAME.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MODEST...PEAKING
BEFORE 29/06Z. THIS COULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FAIRLY
SMALL...CLOSER TO THE MCS ITSELF THROUGH 29/12Z.

A SWATH OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ALONG THE
EXPECTED PATH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE MAXIMUM QPF SWATH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO MI. TO THIS
POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES.
THIS BIAS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND THE MORE SOUTHERN MODELS WERE USED AS A
GUIDE FOR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN IA...AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD ALLOW THESE
VALUES TO FALL. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE REPLENISHED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET)...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AN EXCESSIVE
AREA WAS RETAINED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
MI.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST DURING SAT...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI AS THE
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO....AND ITS RETROGRESSION SLOWLY WEST WITH
TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF DETAILS WERE BASED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW.

CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA...NEAR LOCAL SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BEND BIG OF FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (NEAR 1.00 INCH)
WAS PLACED NEAR KPAM AND KAAF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW/12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL HERE.

THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL INFLOW (ABOUT 15 KNOTS OFF THE EASTERN
GULF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...POINTING TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COVER ENOUGH AREA TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISK OR SEE TEXT.  THE ACTIVITY REFIRES DURING THE DAY
SAT AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES...AGAIN CENTERED ON SURFACE
TROUGHS...SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INT SOUTHEAST GA.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND THE 12Z REGIONAL
GEM/12Z WRF ARW WERE USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUPPRESSES LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE (WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE HIGH AND MID
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TIED TO THE TERRAIN OF NM AND PORTIONS OF AZ. AXES OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF WERE STRUNG ALONG THE TERRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
AZ...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT... AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOWED A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS TAPPED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE WA/OR COASTS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z (DURING THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX). THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE THE
TERRAIN...SO WHILE THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE...IT IS NOT YET IDEAL.

A LONG AXIS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE THE
OLYMPICS IN WA AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN OR...AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES IN WA AND OR. THIS IS CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND...AND
NEAR THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE QPF SHOULD
COME IN WAVES...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO WHILE
LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.



DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A COMPLEX AND DEEPENING EARLY AUTUMNAL UPPER TROUGH COMPOSED OF
SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORT WAVES WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ON BOTH DAYS 2 TO 3/SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO WESTERN OREGON...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF LOCATED
ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  ONE STRONG
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WASHINGTON COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE A BROAD AND COLDER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL YIELD RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN .25 INCHES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
OREGON.  MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE COMBINATION OF THE GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE FOLLOWED TO GENERATE THE QPF GRAPHICS FOR THE
REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNLIKE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON MORE OF A COMPOSITE
APPROACH SINCE THERE WAS LITTLE ACTUAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND EVEN WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE QPF FORECASTS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.  AN ELONGATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK BUT HARD TO DEFINE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WHATEVER HAPPENS TO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AND CERTAINLY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THERE.
PINPOINTING WHERE IS CURRENTLY VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY ESPECIALLY
SINCE ERIKA HAS NOT BEEN FOLLOWING ITS EXPECTED PATH AND ANY
INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
COULD INFLUENCE ITS STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT.  SO THE COMBINATION OF
UNCERTAINTY OF NOT ONLY PATH BUT ULTIMATE INTENSITY...OR LACK OF
IT...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED TO WILDLY VARYING MODEL RESULTS.  AS A RESULT...A MULTI
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WAS USED TO FORECAST THE QPF IN THIS
REGION BUT THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS VERY LOW.  FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE...HAVE KEPT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAYS 2 AND 3.


...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA
OF CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ORGANIZATION IS MINIMAL
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE.

HURLEY/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 434318 440313 446310 451308 457304 462301 466301 468304
      476307 483307 488305 495305 502305 507305 523262 520255
      518246 517238 517233 518229 528236 532230 534223 537211
      540203 542193 542183 539177 534170 524162 520156 515152
      504145 497143 493142 491138 486135 483130 478124 471123
      468122 468127 470132 478142 484146 485151 484154 480153
      478151 476149 474150 469147 467149 465153 461160 456163
      452167 450169 451175 454179 457179 459181 466171 473171
      477170 481172 484179 484186 485189 483192 482196 480198
      477199 472201 467203 458202 453205 443209 393216 391220
      391224 388228 386230 382232 381236 383241 386247 381250
      377253 372258 364269 361276 360283 363286 366287 373288
      381290 388293 394298 399305
 0.01 525741 523723 522707 518693 516688 515683 508666 503658
      497652 493653 491656 481660 476681 476708 475720 474732
      469754 467763 465770 463775 460783 456790 452793 449795
      444797 439798 435799 432802 427810 419823 403863 395881
      390889 385897 375911 369915 366917 361918 356919 351922
      344929 337935 336940 337946 340955 337962 333970 333982
      336985 340987 342990 342993 340997 329010 323018 319024
      315031 313035 312037 310037 304030 302034 304038 306042
      307049 305054 301057 287064 280067 271070 260070 256073
      255077 257081 260084 267089 276093 279095 283096 290100
      293108 297115 299118 303119 318128 326133 330133 331129
      328120 327116 329114 333115 338116 340118 341122 342126
      346128 349130 351125 354124 359123 365125 368124 368118
      360114 353111 349103 345094 344086 344080 343076 339072
      336072 332074 327073 326070 327067 331064 336063 341065
      353067 357069 360072 361078 364081 373084 376084 380081
      384074 393062 395057 395055 391057 388061 385061 383058
      381050 377047 371046 366048 361048 355047 352045 345037
      343032 343024 346019 349015 353007 357000 360994 362992
      368985 377974 389962 400952 408947 416942 426941 431940
      437938 443933 449925 453915 457906 459897 461893 463895
      463911 464917 465922 465931 465939 464947 464958 464964
      465967 467972 467974 470975 475973 479970 491955 496947
      500937 504926 505913 506902 506888 506875 507867 508862
      513842 516831 518821 523795 524767 525741
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 391113 387113 382115
      379119 375125 375130 378128 384129 386125 390118 394115
      398113 401111 405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 378803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 388804 392801 394798
 0.01 225743 217748 214749 212753 207766 215783 219791 224797
      234810 236812 237816 240821 243823 247824 252825 254828
      252830 247833 244841 243844 244850 241857 236873 236885
      237887 242888 252887 258885 267881 270879 276878 279876
      283877 287877 290879 298885 300887 306887 315886 319887
      322889 333889 337889 340885 346881 352880 356879 360877
      364875 366871 369864 371855 369849 366846 361839 360826
      359821 357819 352819 348818 341814 337806 337800 337795
      341785 342782 345779 357768 362762 367753 369744 369736
      368723 366717 364713 359708 357705 352706 346706 343706
      335709 327713 321719 316725 315731 313734 310742 306748
      297762 288775 285775 284772 285768 286763 286758 285754
      283750 278743 277740 273738 265736 257734 249733 235738
 0.25 425314 430311 434305 437302 441298 450292 459288 463286
      469286 480288 486287 491289 503292 508291 512287 515283
      517277 519268 517260 514248 513239 513231 514221 517217
      522217 527220 531217 533211 535203 535199 537193 537188
      536185 533180 530175 526171 516165 509174 501180 487200
      478205 470209 451215 415230 410227 406229 401232 398235
      398241 401247 407250 404253 399256 395259 392265 389269
      388274 389278 391281 402287 405292 407298 409304 413310
 0.25 510708 509698 506688 503680 500677 498677 490689 487697
      485704 483723 482743 480760 477779 476787 475797 474806
      472815 472822 472828 475836 479843 482849 482853 483855
      489853 494851 498845 500837 501828 506812 507802 507791
      508771 509760 510751 510729 511717 510708
 0.25 494914 494905 493898 492891 490886 486882 481882 478885
      476890 474896 473904 475917 476923 476930 475938 477942
      481941 486938 488933 491927 494915 494914
 0.25 454867 454857 454848 453839 450833 445831 440833 435835
      430840 423849 417859 406882 403887 401894 400900 398907
      387929 385932 385936 389939 400936 406933 412932 418931
      424929 434923 438918 440914 449887 454867
 0.25 372936 372932 370930 366930 362931 357934 354936 350941
      348947 352951 355952 361949 366945 370941 372936
 0.25 355741 356735 355730 351724 345722 339722 333725 327729
      322734 318739 316746 315754 313769 313778 313788 312796
      311798 309801 304805 296805 295800 290798 287797 283797
      278796 271795 266798 266800 270801 277801 288806 295808
      297810 299814 303821 302826 307831 308833 308837 306840
      304840 300836 294832 287830 279831 273834 256851 252858
      250865 248868 250871 257871 264870 270865 276863 281863
      296867 302868 310868 314869 316871 322874 329874 334872
      339868 342861 339856 336852 327842 321829 321823 322817
      323807 325801 328794 329786 334773 338766 342761 350751
      355741
 0.25 340098 341096 340094 339093 338092 337093 336095 338097
      339098 340098 340098
 0.25 336086 335085 334085 332085 331086 331088 333089 335088
      336086
 0.25 336058 337056 336054 334054 332054 330054 329053 327053
      326055 326057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
      336058
 0.25 331081 330079 329080 327081 328083 328084 330083 331081
 0.25 309100 310098 309096 307094 307093 306092 304093 302095
      302096 301097 303099 304100 305100 307101 309101 309100
 0.25 306087 305081 301077 296074 291073 285072 280074 278078
      279081 282085 286086 289085 294086 299090 302090 305089
      306087
 0.25 280815 278811 276810 275809 271808 267808 264809 261809
      259809 260811 262813 264815 267816 269818 272819 275819
      278817 280815
 0.25 254814 254812 253810 253809 251808 251807 250808 249810
      249812 251814 252814 253814 254814
 0.25 243756 244750 242744 239741 235741 232743 229745 226749
      225753 228757 230759 234760 240760 243757 243756
 0.50 530202 531197 531194 530189 528187 527188 525186 522184
      519185 517188 517193 517198 517201 520204 522205 525206
      526206 529205 530202
 0.50 515272 516264 515258 513249 509227 505216 505205 502201
      498200 490202 476208 461215 454218 448221 447231 441239
      437240 433240 423237 419235 415234 412237 411242 418248
      423250 426252 425257 422261 416267 413271 411276 411283
      412286 415297 418306 421308 425307 430301 433297 436294
      442290 449285 456282 462279 466277 471276 480279 489281
      496281 503276 506273 509272 513274 515272
 0.50 504730 504714 501706 499703 495699 492699 489711 488723
      488731 487737 486749 485763 483790 482797 484800 485798
      487797 487800 486805 485820 485826 487831 489829 490822
      492810 491802 493796 499788 502779 503772 503764 502756
      503750 504736 504730
 0.50 487917 487912 487907 487902 486899 484897 483897 480899
      479902 479906 479909 479912 480917 482919 484921 487919
      487917
 0.50 449867 450860 449853 448847 444846 442846 437845 435844
      432847 426855 421863 417870 413880 410889 407898 403919
      403925 407927 412928 417926 424923 431918 434914 436909
      439899 446882 449867
 0.50 351738 350732 349729 346727 342726 337727 330732 325736
      321743 321752 324758 329759 333757 338753 344748 348743
      351738
 0.50 323795 323793 323790 323788 323786 322784 320786 320787
      319789 319791 319793 319794 319795 319797 319798 321798
      322797 323796 323795
 0.50 309856 303846 295836 291834 286833 280834 277839 272849
      263856 260861 264863 269861 273857 275855 278854 282857
      287859 295859 300859 306858 309856
 0.50 303087 303085 303084 302082 301082 299080 298079 296078
      294078 292079 291081 292082 294083 295084 297085 299086
      300086 301087 302087 303087
 0.50 239751 239749 239747 238745 236745 234745 232746 231748
      232750 233752 234754 235754 237754 238753 239753 239751
 1.00 508256 509248 509242 505230 502219 496209 492206 488206
      484207 480211 480214 484214 485218 489223 494233 494240
      493241 490241 484238 481234 478231 472231 464234 461240
      459247 459255 462259 463264 466267 471267 475265 484262
      488265 493269 495270 500269 504260 508256
 1.00 430289 431285 431282 428279 425279 423280 420283 419286
      419290 419293 420296 421299 424300 426298 428296 429292
      430289
 1.00 441878 441869 439863 435860 431858 427861 425867 422879
      417889 414900 413906 415912 415920 418921 421920 429914
      431909 433904 434896 435890 440880 441878
 1.00 300849 299845 298842 296840 294839 292838 288837 286837
      284838 283841 282844 283848 284850 286852 289853 293853
      296852 298851 300849
 1.50 490250 490247 490245 490244 488243 487243 486243 485245
      486248 486249 487249 489251 490250
 1.50 481244 480242 480241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233
      472234 471236 470238 471241 471242 472244 473244 474246
      476246 477246 479246 479245 481244
 1.50 429883 430881 428880 428881 427883 426883 425886 424888
      423889 423891 423893 424894 425893 426893 427890 427889
      427888 427886 428884 429883
 1.50 427907 428905 428902 428900 427899 425899 425900 424901
      423902 422903 422905 421907 420908 420910 421912 422914
      424912 425912 426910 426909 427907 427907
 1.50 294847 295845 294844 293843 292842 291843 290844 289845
      290847 292848 294847 294847

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 525174 525168 522164 516155 509149 503145 498143 494140
      488133 481126 477127 475131 472135 468137 462136 458138
      450136 448133 451129 453126 457125 462119 464114 468112
      475106 478101 480097 481090 480084 477080 476075 473073
      469072 467070 464069 462069 460071 454078 451075 448070
      442067 438069 437074 437083 436087 434089 428091 426096
      425103 418113 412118 409121 407125 405130 404135 404142
      406145 410148 415147 419145 421143 426136 429131 432128
      435129 436133 437138 440142 444142 442145 442149 442157
      444160 445169 446174 450176 453179 456177 457182 460188
      463191 468193 472192 474193 473196 471199 463203 448212
      438211 434218 429226 427230 424231 415235 412237 409242
      407246 406250 404252 406255 410259 414260 417263 419269
      423270 426271 430270 437264 443259 451254 459258 463262
      465267 469276 475283 484300 489302 492300 496289 500279
      502270 504264 510241 512233 512228 508221 510207 513201
      517204 519202 520197 522190 523180 525174
 0.01 494671 492656 490652 487650 481644 478643 473644 466649
      465655 465662 464673 460681 455690 452698 452704 454708
      456712 460714 464723 465727 469729 474729 477730 486730
      489728 492724 491718 490713 487699 486695 487689 491685
      492682 494671
 0.01 457788 453781 448780 440781 437779 434775 429777 426773
      424770 421768 415767 411769 405773 400777 395782 391786
      384790 372797 365802 361802 358801 352797 351792 351788
      356776 360770 364766 368760 370757 369753 369747 370743
      372736 375728 376723 377713 375705 370700 365698 358698
      349702 337709 329717 325723 321727 318729 317733 318736
      316738 307746 301751 296756 272771 265774 257776 248782
      243786 239791 237796 233800 229807 227811 227814 227817
      230819 234824 239829 244832 250835 259837 267847 268850
      269854 269862 270868 271871 274874 274878 271892 269898
      265903 258913 249940 248946 249955 258961 263965 269967
      274969 281968 292939 292919 292913 293910 296900 307879
      310873 314872 316873 320875 322879 327883 352883 360884
      366885 373888 379893 378895 371896 367899 363904 353916
      348921 344925 339936 328945 327946 329949 331950 331954
      334958 338958 346958 358961 366961 371959 381953 389943
      405917 413907 417900 420892 426878 432867 446841 451826
      453820 456813 457788
 0.01 446048 447037 442033 437037 433041 431044 427044 422043
      416048 409051 397046 384049 379048 376046 370046 364049
      360049 358047 352049 348050 343049 331045 324044 322048
      324065 321073 316078 312078 308077 302075 295073 287070
      277065 270062 264058 253052 247050 239049 234053 231059
      230068 231072 233075 241083 246087 251090 258094 262098
      266103 271109 282115 287119 292122 299125 308126 315127
      318125 322126 327126 332123 335122 339124 344129 351130
      355129 362125 364123 367119 370114 375112 380109 386106
      392103 396099 413078 416071 419067 423060 427058 430058
      433057 437057 441055 444053 446048
 0.25 514184 515178 515174 514168 513165 509163 505162 498163
      491165 489165 486169 488177 490182 492186 497192 503195
      509193 513187 514184
 0.25 500261 500257 499255 497250 497245 499243 502241 504226
      504217 502212 498207 495204 485203 476206 469210 451216
      446217 441220 439225 439234 439237 442238 447239 457241
      475253 479258 481262 486272 488278 489283 491285 493279
      500261
 0.25 486233 485230 484228 483227 482226 480226 479225 478225
      479226 479228 480229 481231 481232 483233 484234 486233
 0.25 432838 431816 431806 429795 424792 419792 414797 411803
      408810 405815 402822 400830 396844 403855 407860 409862
      414862 424853 427848 430843 432838
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378075 377078
      379080 381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 355091 355086 354084 351084 348086 343082 338076 332077
      328083 331092 332101 339103 343103 343100 344097 347094
      349092 353091 355091
 0.25 358850 358844 356840 352835 345818 344815 344810 342803
      338796 333790 326788 317787 311788 304791 299793 295792
      288790 280790 273788 263788 255789 249792 244797 239805
      238811 238816 240819 245823 253826 261827 280825 283826
      284831 286840 289847 293853 298855 303853 309850 317848
      323851 329857 335860 342863 350864 353862 356858 358850
 0.25 315110 312096 308091 302087 292079 286078 279078 272079
      265078 260079 258081 258086 267095 271099 277102 288108
      302114 306114 309113 315110 315110
 0.50 513181 512176 510171 508168 503167 499168 496170 494176
      496181 501183 504186 509187 512184 513181
 0.50 499240 501230 502221 500215 497211 487208 481208 476209
      468214 463215 458217 453218 449220 446225 448229 452230
      456229 459233 463236 471246 480252 487262 490266 492266
      494261 495254 494249 491243 487239 484240 481237 478233
      475229 473226 474224 479223 484225 489228 491233 496239
      499240
 0.50 425839 424837 424836 423836 421835 419837 418839 418841
      418842 417844 417846 418848 420847 422847 422846 423844
      424843 425841 425839
 0.50 418820 419818 418816 418815 416815 415816 414817 413819
      412821 411823 411824 411826 413828 413829 414828 415827
      417825 418823 418821 418820
 0.50 345840 346835 344831 341826 335815 334811 332808 329803
      324800 318800 304802 298802 290801 285798 281796 269793
      262793 256793 251796 246799 243805 242811 243817 248819
      255820 262820 269818 275817 289817 295817 301821 307822
      312824 320825 325827 331837 334842 336850 339851 341849
      343846 345840
 0.50 296099 296094 295090 288087 281086 276091 271087 268085
      264084 264087 266089 273092 278096 282098 285101 287103
      292102 295101 296099
 1.00 498232 499227 498221 497218 495216 494214 491213 487212
      486213 483214 483219 484221 488222 491224 492227 493230
      495233 498232
 1.00 488249 488247 488246 486246 487249 488249
 1.00 477243 478241 477238 476237 475237 474236 473236 472239
      473241 474242 475242 476243 477243
 1.00 282806 278803 270800 264798 255799 248802 245808 245811
      247813 252814 257813 264809 271806 280806 282806
 1.50 494223 494220 493219 492218 490219 491221 492222 493223
      494223 494223
 1.50 489219 488217 487217 486218 487218 488219 489219
 1.50 259805 258803 257803 256803 254804 252804 250805 249806
      248808 248810 249811 251811 253811 254810 255810 256809
      258807 259805

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 522184 524170 524165 523162 519156 516155 514152 512149
      509149 506151 503151 495150 490152 485159 482165 483169
      483174 482181 480185 479189 477193 472198 465209 462212
      461216 458224 454232 448234 446243 449244 451247 454254
      460260 465264 468267 468272 470279 473286 477294 482296
      489281 495278 499272 502266 505258 508247 510236 512227
      514216 522184
 0.01 533920 533913 531908 527901 523897 520897 519900 515919
      513923 510925 504926 498930 494939 493943 491944 486949
      472974 468982 465991 458005 448013 439021 433028 433037
      441039 447038 451038 452042 454044 457044 464040 467037
      471037 474039 480047 485052 482054 478054 473058 469063
      464069 460072 452075 444075 443077 444079 448080 450083
      454084 456086 461092 461097 460103 457110 462112 469108
      473103 476096 484081 487076 491069 494060 494058 491055
      487053 490051 494046 502035 509024 511019 510015 506008
      496000 493998 495995 500990 504985 509983 516978 522974
      526968 528965 528962 526955 523947 520944 522939 525934
      533920
 0.01 473695 471683 467674 462665 452669 449672 448675 450680
      451686 452693 454698 456712 459722 461718 461711 461706
      463700 471696 473695
 0.01 443829 436797 431789 424782 420776 421773 415763 399760
      393757 389758 388765 390769 391773 391777 390780 387783
      379790 372798 369801 364804 358805 352804 349799 348791
      349787 351785 355781 361776 363771 365766 364762 359753
      351744 348740 345743 335760 252774 245776 240778 236779
      235782 231786 228790 228796 229802 231807 236817 239829
      240832 239835 240837 244841 246847 253857 262862 267865
      270868 273872 276877 278883 278890 278894 276898 274901
      264917 261930 264943 264951 260951 256949 253951 252957
      252964 252972 252977 255981 259984 263986 266985 278981
      288977 293974 297970 299968 302963 304957 305951 307945
      307939 301933 301920 303914 306907 307904 310903 314899
      326884 332876 336872 342870 339875 339880 349882 363881
      375876 386872 390870 395869 405864 409862 415861 421860
      424855 429848 438837 443829
 0.01 431042 429037 427034 424033 419031 416029 412028 411026
      405026 396027 391032 388036 385042 381043 360038 355039
      351040 349041 342046 333052 328059 321070 318073 314076
      309079 305079 297073 293070 287067 280067 278069 277077
      278083 285089 289093 291099 294103 297106 300111 301116
      305119 310120 331115 342114 346116 349114 367102 371101
      374102 383098 400099 403102 407105 411108 414104 417087
      418082 417076 416069 417063 423054 428047 431042
 0.25 517188 519178 520172 519168 516163 510160 504161 500164
      499170 500178 502186 505192 508198 511199 514197 515195
      517188
 0.25 505242 508229 508223 507219 505210 502207 498206 493205
      487205 479208 475212 470218 470223 472226 471231 469234
      465239 464245 465248 471253 474260 478268 482274 485274
      487272 493268 496267 498263 499255 503249 505242
 0.25 415821 415818 414815 412814 410811 410807 410801 410796
      412788 410785 406786 401790 397793 393794 386796 381802
      377807 374815 370821 365827 362832 362836 366838 374835
      382832 387832 396830 397828 401826 404829 408828 414823
      415821
 0.25 403072 403066 402062 397057 394056 390056 387058 386061
      380065 375069 372073 372076 374080 377082 384084 389085
      394085 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 355082 352077 345075 340076 334080 332084 331091 335095
      340099 345098 349092 352086 355082
 0.25 345776 345770 342770 338775 329783 321787 313788 307787
      302785 293782 287782 272782 264782 256783 249784 243788
      238793 237799 241813 244822 247827 251831 258833 283842
      295849 302849 309847 314847 317845 321840 326835 329829
      332821 333813 332808 332804 335798 339792 341786 345776
 0.25 317097 316094 315092 312090 310089 306088 302088 301091
      301095 302097 305099 309100 312100 316099 317097
 0.50 516185 516181 516177 515173 514169 513167 509166 506166
      504167 503171 504174 505177 506181 507184 509186 512187
      514187 516185
 0.50 504244 506234 506225 505218 501212 496208 491209 481211
      478213 477218 478222 480223 480228 475232 472236 470241
      471245 478256 480262 483267 487268 488267 492264 496262
      497260 496252 501248 504244
 0.50 343091 344089 342088 342087 341086 340087 339089 338091
      339091 340092 342092 343091
 0.50 322812 324808 323803 319800 310797 302792 298790 293789
      281789 276789 271788 261786 254787 247790 243792 240795
      240801 243814 245818 248822 256826 262826 267828 275833
      284837 292842 298841 299836 299828 301823 306821 312821
      317819 319817 322812
 1.00 503241 504234 503228 502222 500218 497214 492214 489215
      486218 486223 487228 490234 492237 495240 498243 502242
      503241
 1.00 492258 493251 493245 490242 485239 482242 480239 479236
      475235 475241 478244 481247 483252 485256 487260 491259
      492258
 1.00 301806 299801 296798 290794 278795 270793 266792 261791
      253792 245795 243799 243805 245811 247815 253820 261819
      268822 274828 282831 285830 283827 277822 273819 270816
      269812 269808 275806 280807 284808 285812 286815 288814
      292812 300808 301806
 1.50 503238 502236 501233 500228 500224 498221 497219 493219
      491222 490224 491227 492231 493233 495236 497238 500240
      503238
 1.50 490255 491253 492250 491248 491247 490245 489244 488244
      486243 485246 485248 486250 486251 486254 487254 488257
      490255 490255
 1.50 291803 289802 287803 286804 287804 289804 291803 291803
 1.50 272799 268795 262794 255794 248795 245801 247809 249812
      254816 258813 261809 264804 269802 272799
 2.00 501238 501235 500233 499232 499229 498227 498224 497224
      496222 495221 493222 493225 493227 493230 495232 496234
      498236 499237 500238 501238 501238
 2.00 491250 489248 488249 488252 488254 490252 490251 491250
 2.00 267798 264796 259796 255795 252796 249796 246800 246802
      249807 253810 254809 257805 261803 265801 267798

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 282257
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR




...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A SHORT LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WEAK WITH THE SHORT
WAVE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO STRONG. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CONTINUITY...AND SOME OF THE DETAILS OF
THE QPF MAXIMUM WERE BASED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM.

CONVECTION IS REFIRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MCS
CROSSING EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BACKBUILDING OCCURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (IN THE FORM OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CENTRAL IA) SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 29/06Z...AND THE LATEST
NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEWLY FORMING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS PEAKING OVER EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI IN THE 29/00Z THROUGH 29/06Z TIME FRAME.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MODEST...PEAKING
BEFORE 29/06Z. THIS COULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FAIRLY
SMALL...CLOSER TO THE MCS ITSELF THROUGH 29/12Z.

A SWATH OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ALONG THE
EXPECTED PATH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE MAXIMUM QPF SWATH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO MI. TO THIS
POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES.
THIS BIAS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND THE MORE SOUTHERN MODELS WERE USED AS A
GUIDE FOR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN IA...AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD ALLOW THESE
VALUES TO FALL. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE REPLENISHED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET)...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AN EXCESSIVE
AREA WAS RETAINED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
MI.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST DURING SAT...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI AS THE
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO....AND ITS RETROGRESSION SLOWLY WEST WITH
TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF DETAILS WERE BASED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW.

CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA...NEAR LOCAL SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BEND BIG OF FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (NEAR 1.00 INCH)
WAS PLACED NEAR KPAM AND KAAF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW/12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL HERE.

THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL INFLOW (ABOUT 15 KNOTS OFF THE EASTERN
GULF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...POINTING TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COVER ENOUGH AREA TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISK OR SEE TEXT.  THE ACTIVITY REFIRES DURING THE DAY
SAT AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES...AGAIN CENTERED ON SURFACE
TROUGHS...SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INT SOUTHEAST GA.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND THE 12Z REGIONAL
GEM/12Z WRF ARW WERE USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUPPRESSES LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE (WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE HIGH AND MID
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TIED TO THE TERRAIN OF NM AND PORTIONS OF AZ. AXES OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF WERE STRUNG ALONG THE TERRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
AZ...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT... AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOWED A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS TAPPED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE WA/OR COASTS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z (DURING THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX). THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE THE
TERRAIN...SO WHILE THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE...IT IS NOT YET IDEAL.

A LONG AXIS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE THE
OLYMPICS IN WA AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN OR...AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES IN WA AND OR. THIS IS CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND...AND
NEAR THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE QPF SHOULD
COME IN WAVES...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO WHILE
LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.



DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A COMPLEX AND DEEPENING EARLY AUTUMNAL UPPER TROUGH COMPOSED OF
SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORT WAVES WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ON BOTH DAYS 2 TO 3/SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO WESTERN OREGON...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF LOCATED
ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  ONE STRONG
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WASHINGTON COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE A BROAD AND COLDER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL YIELD RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN .25 INCHES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
OREGON.  MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE COMBINATION OF THE GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE FOLLOWED TO GENERATE THE QPF GRAPHICS FOR THE
REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNLIKE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON MORE OF A COMPOSITE
APPROACH SINCE THERE WAS LITTLE ACTUAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND EVEN WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE QPF FORECASTS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.  AN ELONGATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK BUT HARD TO DEFINE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WHATEVER HAPPENS TO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AND CERTAINLY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THERE.
PINPOINTING WHERE IS CURRENTLY VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY ESPECIALLY
SINCE ERIKA HAS NOT BEEN FOLLOWING ITS EXPECTED PATH AND ANY
INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
COULD INFLUENCE ITS STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT.  SO THE COMBINATION OF
UNCERTAINTY OF NOT ONLY PATH BUT ULTIMATE INTENSITY...OR LACK OF
IT...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED TO WILDLY VARYING MODEL RESULTS.  AS A RESULT...A MULTI
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WAS USED TO FORECAST THE QPF IN THIS
REGION BUT THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS VERY LOW.  FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE...HAVE KEPT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAYS 2 AND 3.


...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA
OF CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ORGANIZATION IS MINIMAL
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE.

HURLEY/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 434318 440313 446310 451308 457304 462301 466301 468304
      476307 483307 488305 495305 502305 507305 523262 520255
      518246 517238 517233 518229 528236 532230 534223 537211
      540203 542193 542183 539177 534170 524162 520156 515152
      504145 497143 493142 491138 486135 483130 478124 471123
      468122 468127 470132 478142 484146 485151 484154 480153
      478151 476149 474150 469147 467149 465153 461160 456163
      452167 450169 451175 454179 457179 459181 466171 473171
      477170 481172 484179 484186 485189 483192 482196 480198
      477199 472201 467203 458202 453205 443209 393216 391220
      391224 388228 386230 382232 381236 383241 386247 381250
      377253 372258 364269 361276 360283 363286 366287 373288
      381290 388293 394298 399305
 0.01 525741 523723 522707 518693 516688 515683 508666 503658
      497652 493653 491656 481660 476681 476708 475720 474732
      469754 467763 465770 463775 460783 456790 452793 449795
      444797 439798 435799 432802 427810 419823 403863 395881
      390889 385897 375911 369915 366917 361918 356919 351922
      344929 337935 336940 337946 340955 337962 333970 333982
      336985 340987 342990 342993 340997 329010 323018 319024
      315031 313035 312037 310037 304030 302034 304038 306042
      307049 305054 301057 287064 280067 271070 260070 256073
      255077 257081 260084 267089 276093 279095 283096 290100
      293108 297115 299118 303119 318128 326133 330133 331129
      328120 327116 329114 333115 338116 340118 341122 342126
      346128 349130 351125 354124 359123 365125 368124 368118
      360114 353111 349103 345094 344086 344080 343076 339072
      336072 332074 327073 326070 327067 331064 336063 341065
      353067 357069 360072 361078 364081 373084 376084 380081
      384074 393062 395057 395055 391057 388061 385061 383058
      381050 377047 371046 366048 361048 355047 352045 345037
      343032 343024 346019 349015 353007 357000 360994 362992
      368985 377974 389962 400952 408947 416942 426941 431940
      437938 443933 449925 453915 457906 459897 461893 463895
      463911 464917 465922 465931 465939 464947 464958 464964
      465967 467972 467974 470975 475973 479970 491955 496947
      500937 504926 505913 506902 506888 506875 507867 508862
      513842 516831 518821 523795 524767 525741
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 391113 387113 382115
      379119 375125 375130 378128 384129 386125 390118 394115
      398113 401111 405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 378803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 388804 392801 394798
 0.01 225743 217748 214749 212753 207766 215783 219791 224797
      234810 236812 237816 240821 243823 247824 252825 254828
      252830 247833 244841 243844 244850 241857 236873 236885
      237887 242888 252887 258885 267881 270879 276878 279876
      283877 287877 290879 298885 300887 306887 315886 319887
      322889 333889 337889 340885 346881 352880 356879 360877
      364875 366871 369864 371855 369849 366846 361839 360826
      359821 357819 352819 348818 341814 337806 337800 337795
      341785 342782 345779 357768 362762 367753 369744 369736
      368723 366717 364713 359708 357705 352706 346706 343706
      335709 327713 321719 316725 315731 313734 310742 306748
      297762 288775 285775 284772 285768 286763 286758 285754
      283750 278743 277740 273738 265736 257734 249733 235738
 0.25 425314 430311 434305 437302 441298 450292 459288 463286
      469286 480288 486287 491289 503292 508291 512287 515283
      517277 519268 517260 514248 513239 513231 514221 517217
      522217 527220 531217 533211 535203 535199 537193 537188
      536185 533180 530175 526171 516165 509174 501180 487200
      478205 470209 451215 415230 410227 406229 401232 398235
      398241 401247 407250 404253 399256 395259 392265 389269
      388274 389278 391281 402287 405292 407298 409304 413310
 0.25 510708 509698 506688 503680 500677 498677 490689 487697
      485704 483723 482743 480760 477779 476787 475797 474806
      472815 472822 472828 475836 479843 482849 482853 483855
      489853 494851 498845 500837 501828 506812 507802 507791
      508771 509760 510751 510729 511717 510708
 0.25 494914 494905 493898 492891 490886 486882 481882 478885
      476890 474896 473904 475917 476923 476930 475938 477942
      481941 486938 488933 491927 494915 494914
 0.25 454867 454857 454848 453839 450833 445831 440833 435835
      430840 423849 417859 406882 403887 401894 400900 398907
      387929 385932 385936 389939 400936 406933 412932 418931
      424929 434923 438918 440914 449887 454867
 0.25 372936 372932 370930 366930 362931 357934 354936 350941
      348947 352951 355952 361949 366945 370941 372936
 0.25 355741 356735 355730 351724 345722 339722 333725 327729
      322734 318739 316746 315754 313769 313778 313788 312796
      311798 309801 304805 296805 295800 290798 287797 283797
      278796 271795 266798 266800 270801 277801 288806 295808
      297810 299814 303821 302826 307831 308833 308837 306840
      304840 300836 294832 287830 279831 273834 256851 252858
      250865 248868 250871 257871 264870 270865 276863 281863
      296867 302868 310868 314869 316871 322874 329874 334872
      339868 342861 339856 336852 327842 321829 321823 322817
      323807 325801 328794 329786 334773 338766 342761 350751
      355741
 0.25 340098 341096 340094 339093 338092 337093 336095 338097
      339098 340098 340098
 0.25 336086 335085 334085 332085 331086 331088 333089 335088
      336086
 0.25 336058 337056 336054 334054 332054 330054 329053 327053
      326055 326057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
      336058
 0.25 331081 330079 329080 327081 328083 328084 330083 331081
 0.25 309100 310098 309096 307094 307093 306092 304093 302095
      302096 301097 303099 304100 305100 307101 309101 309100
 0.25 306087 305081 301077 296074 291073 285072 280074 278078
      279081 282085 286086 289085 294086 299090 302090 305089
      306087
 0.25 280815 278811 276810 275809 271808 267808 264809 261809
      259809 260811 262813 264815 267816 269818 272819 275819
      278817 280815
 0.25 254814 254812 253810 253809 251808 251807 250808 249810
      249812 251814 252814 253814 254814
 0.25 243756 244750 242744 239741 235741 232743 229745 226749
      225753 228757 230759 234760 240760 243757 243756
 0.50 530202 531197 531194 530189 528187 527188 525186 522184
      519185 517188 517193 517198 517201 520204 522205 525206
      526206 529205 530202
 0.50 515272 516264 515258 513249 509227 505216 505205 502201
      498200 490202 476208 461215 454218 448221 447231 441239
      437240 433240 423237 419235 415234 412237 411242 418248
      423250 426252 425257 422261 416267 413271 411276 411283
      412286 415297 418306 421308 425307 430301 433297 436294
      442290 449285 456282 462279 466277 471276 480279 489281
      496281 503276 506273 509272 513274 515272
 0.50 504730 504714 501706 499703 495699 492699 489711 488723
      488731 487737 486749 485763 483790 482797 484800 485798
      487797 487800 486805 485820 485826 487831 489829 490822
      492810 491802 493796 499788 502779 503772 503764 502756
      503750 504736 504730
 0.50 487917 487912 487907 487902 486899 484897 483897 480899
      479902 479906 479909 479912 480917 482919 484921 487919
      487917
 0.50 449867 450860 449853 448847 444846 442846 437845 435844
      432847 426855 421863 417870 413880 410889 407898 403919
      403925 407927 412928 417926 424923 431918 434914 436909
      439899 446882 449867
 0.50 351738 350732 349729 346727 342726 337727 330732 325736
      321743 321752 324758 329759 333757 338753 344748 348743
      351738
 0.50 323795 323793 323790 323788 323786 322784 320786 320787
      319789 319791 319793 319794 319795 319797 319798 321798
      322797 323796 323795
 0.50 309856 303846 295836 291834 286833 280834 277839 272849
      263856 260861 264863 269861 273857 275855 278854 282857
      287859 295859 300859 306858 309856
 0.50 303087 303085 303084 302082 301082 299080 298079 296078
      294078 292079 291081 292082 294083 295084 297085 299086
      300086 301087 302087 303087
 0.50 239751 239749 239747 238745 236745 234745 232746 231748
      232750 233752 234754 235754 237754 238753 239753 239751
 1.00 508256 509248 509242 505230 502219 496209 492206 488206
      484207 480211 480214 484214 485218 489223 494233 494240
      493241 490241 484238 481234 478231 472231 464234 461240
      459247 459255 462259 463264 466267 471267 475265 484262
      488265 493269 495270 500269 504260 508256
 1.00 430289 431285 431282 428279 425279 423280 420283 419286
      419290 419293 420296 421299 424300 426298 428296 429292
      430289
 1.00 441878 441869 439863 435860 431858 427861 425867 422879
      417889 414900 413906 415912 415920 418921 421920 429914
      431909 433904 434896 435890 440880 441878
 1.00 300849 299845 298842 296840 294839 292838 288837 286837
      284838 283841 282844 283848 284850 286852 289853 293853
      296852 298851 300849
 1.50 490250 490247 490245 490244 488243 487243 486243 485245
      486248 486249 487249 489251 490250
 1.50 481244 480242 480241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233
      472234 471236 470238 471241 471242 472244 473244 474246
      476246 477246 479246 479245 481244
 1.50 429883 430881 428880 428881 427883 426883 425886 424888
      423889 423891 423893 424894 425893 426893 427890 427889
      427888 427886 428884 429883
 1.50 427907 428905 428902 428900 427899 425899 425900 424901
      423902 422903 422905 421907 420908 420910 421912 422914
      424912 425912 426910 426909 427907 427907
 1.50 294847 295845 294844 293843 292842 291843 290844 289845
      290847 292848 294847 294847

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 525174 525168 522164 516155 509149 503145 498143 494140
      488133 481126 477127 475131 472135 468137 462136 458138
      450136 448133 451129 453126 457125 462119 464114 468112
      475106 478101 480097 481090 480084 477080 476075 473073
      469072 467070 464069 462069 460071 454078 451075 448070
      442067 438069 437074 437083 436087 434089 428091 426096
      425103 418113 412118 409121 407125 405130 404135 404142
      406145 410148 415147 419145 421143 426136 429131 432128
      435129 436133 437138 440142 444142 442145 442149 442157
      444160 445169 446174 450176 453179 456177 457182 460188
      463191 468193 472192 474193 473196 471199 463203 448212
      438211 434218 429226 427230 424231 415235 412237 409242
      407246 406250 404252 406255 410259 414260 417263 419269
      423270 426271 430270 437264 443259 451254 459258 463262
      465267 469276 475283 484300 489302 492300 496289 500279
      502270 504264 510241 512233 512228 508221 510207 513201
      517204 519202 520197 522190 523180 525174
 0.01 494671 492656 490652 487650 481644 478643 473644 466649
      465655 465662 464673 460681 455690 452698 452704 454708
      456712 460714 464723 465727 469729 474729 477730 486730
      489728 492724 491718 490713 487699 486695 487689 491685
      492682 494671
 0.01 457788 453781 448780 440781 437779 434775 429777 426773
      424770 421768 415767 411769 405773 400777 395782 391786
      384790 372797 365802 361802 358801 352797 351792 351788
      356776 360770 364766 368760 370757 369753 369747 370743
      372736 375728 376723 377713 375705 370700 365698 358698
      349702 337709 329717 325723 321727 318729 317733 318736
      316738 307746 301751 296756 272771 265774 257776 248782
      243786 239791 237796 233800 229807 227811 227814 227817
      230819 234824 239829 244832 250835 259837 267847 268850
      269854 269862 270868 271871 274874 274878 271892 269898
      265903 258913 249940 248946 249955 258961 263965 269967
      274969 281968 292939 292919 292913 293910 296900 307879
      310873 314872 316873 320875 322879 327883 352883 360884
      366885 373888 379893 378895 371896 367899 363904 353916
      348921 344925 339936 328945 327946 329949 331950 331954
      334958 338958 346958 358961 366961 371959 381953 389943
      405917 413907 417900 420892 426878 432867 446841 451826
      453820 456813 457788
 0.01 446048 447037 442033 437037 433041 431044 427044 422043
      416048 409051 397046 384049 379048 376046 370046 364049
      360049 358047 352049 348050 343049 331045 324044 322048
      324065 321073 316078 312078 308077 302075 295073 287070
      277065 270062 264058 253052 247050 239049 234053 231059
      230068 231072 233075 241083 246087 251090 258094 262098
      266103 271109 282115 287119 292122 299125 308126 315127
      318125 322126 327126 332123 335122 339124 344129 351130
      355129 362125 364123 367119 370114 375112 380109 386106
      392103 396099 413078 416071 419067 423060 427058 430058
      433057 437057 441055 444053 446048
 0.25 514184 515178 515174 514168 513165 509163 505162 498163
      491165 489165 486169 488177 490182 492186 497192 503195
      509193 513187 514184
 0.25 500261 500257 499255 497250 497245 499243 502241 504226
      504217 502212 498207 495204 485203 476206 469210 451216
      446217 441220 439225 439234 439237 442238 447239 457241
      475253 479258 481262 486272 488278 489283 491285 493279
      500261
 0.25 486233 485230 484228 483227 482226 480226 479225 478225
      479226 479228 480229 481231 481232 483233 484234 486233
 0.25 432838 431816 431806 429795 424792 419792 414797 411803
      408810 405815 402822 400830 396844 403855 407860 409862
      414862 424853 427848 430843 432838
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378075 377078
      379080 381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 355091 355086 354084 351084 348086 343082 338076 332077
      328083 331092 332101 339103 343103 343100 344097 347094
      349092 353091 355091
 0.25 358850 358844 356840 352835 345818 344815 344810 342803
      338796 333790 326788 317787 311788 304791 299793 295792
      288790 280790 273788 263788 255789 249792 244797 239805
      238811 238816 240819 245823 253826 261827 280825 283826
      284831 286840 289847 293853 298855 303853 309850 317848
      323851 329857 335860 342863 350864 353862 356858 358850
 0.25 315110 312096 308091 302087 292079 286078 279078 272079
      265078 260079 258081 258086 267095 271099 277102 288108
      302114 306114 309113 315110 315110
 0.50 513181 512176 510171 508168 503167 499168 496170 494176
      496181 501183 504186 509187 512184 513181
 0.50 499240 501230 502221 500215 497211 487208 481208 476209
      468214 463215 458217 453218 449220 446225 448229 452230
      456229 459233 463236 471246 480252 487262 490266 492266
      494261 495254 494249 491243 487239 484240 481237 478233
      475229 473226 474224 479223 484225 489228 491233 496239
      499240
 0.50 425839 424837 424836 423836 421835 419837 418839 418841
      418842 417844 417846 418848 420847 422847 422846 423844
      424843 425841 425839
 0.50 418820 419818 418816 418815 416815 415816 414817 413819
      412821 411823 411824 411826 413828 413829 414828 415827
      417825 418823 418821 418820
 0.50 345840 346835 344831 341826 335815 334811 332808 329803
      324800 318800 304802 298802 290801 285798 281796 269793
      262793 256793 251796 246799 243805 242811 243817 248819
      255820 262820 269818 275817 289817 295817 301821 307822
      312824 320825 325827 331837 334842 336850 339851 341849
      343846 345840
 0.50 296099 296094 295090 288087 281086 276091 271087 268085
      264084 264087 266089 273092 278096 282098 285101 287103
      292102 295101 296099
 1.00 498232 499227 498221 497218 495216 494214 491213 487212
      486213 483214 483219 484221 488222 491224 492227 493230
      495233 498232
 1.00 488249 488247 488246 486246 487249 488249
 1.00 477243 478241 477238 476237 475237 474236 473236 472239
      473241 474242 475242 476243 477243
 1.00 282806 278803 270800 264798 255799 248802 245808 245811
      247813 252814 257813 264809 271806 280806 282806
 1.50 494223 494220 493219 492218 490219 491221 492222 493223
      494223 494223
 1.50 489219 488217 487217 486218 487218 488219 489219
 1.50 259805 258803 257803 256803 254804 252804 250805 249806
      248808 248810 249811 251811 253811 254810 255810 256809
      258807 259805

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 522184 524170 524165 523162 519156 516155 514152 512149
      509149 506151 503151 495150 490152 485159 482165 483169
      483174 482181 480185 479189 477193 472198 465209 462212
      461216 458224 454232 448234 446243 449244 451247 454254
      460260 465264 468267 468272 470279 473286 477294 482296
      489281 495278 499272 502266 505258 508247 510236 512227
      514216 522184
 0.01 533920 533913 531908 527901 523897 520897 519900 515919
      513923 510925 504926 498930 494939 493943 491944 486949
      472974 468982 465991 458005 448013 439021 433028 433037
      441039 447038 451038 452042 454044 457044 464040 467037
      471037 474039 480047 485052 482054 478054 473058 469063
      464069 460072 452075 444075 443077 444079 448080 450083
      454084 456086 461092 461097 460103 457110 462112 469108
      473103 476096 484081 487076 491069 494060 494058 491055
      487053 490051 494046 502035 509024 511019 510015 506008
      496000 493998 495995 500990 504985 509983 516978 522974
      526968 528965 528962 526955 523947 520944 522939 525934
      533920
 0.01 473695 471683 467674 462665 452669 449672 448675 450680
      451686 452693 454698 456712 459722 461718 461711 461706
      463700 471696 473695
 0.01 443829 436797 431789 424782 420776 421773 415763 399760
      393757 389758 388765 390769 391773 391777 390780 387783
      379790 372798 369801 364804 358805 352804 349799 348791
      349787 351785 355781 361776 363771 365766 364762 359753
      351744 348740 345743 335760 252774 245776 240778 236779
      235782 231786 228790 228796 229802 231807 236817 239829
      240832 239835 240837 244841 246847 253857 262862 267865
      270868 273872 276877 278883 278890 278894 276898 274901
      264917 261930 264943 264951 260951 256949 253951 252957
      252964 252972 252977 255981 259984 263986 266985 278981
      288977 293974 297970 299968 302963 304957 305951 307945
      307939 301933 301920 303914 306907 307904 310903 314899
      326884 332876 336872 342870 339875 339880 349882 363881
      375876 386872 390870 395869 405864 409862 415861 421860
      424855 429848 438837 443829
 0.01 431042 429037 427034 424033 419031 416029 412028 411026
      405026 396027 391032 388036 385042 381043 360038 355039
      351040 349041 342046 333052 328059 321070 318073 314076
      309079 305079 297073 293070 287067 280067 278069 277077
      278083 285089 289093 291099 294103 297106 300111 301116
      305119 310120 331115 342114 346116 349114 367102 371101
      374102 383098 400099 403102 407105 411108 414104 417087
      418082 417076 416069 417063 423054 428047 431042
 0.25 517188 519178 520172 519168 516163 510160 504161 500164
      499170 500178 502186 505192 508198 511199 514197 515195
      517188
 0.25 505242 508229 508223 507219 505210 502207 498206 493205
      487205 479208 475212 470218 470223 472226 471231 469234
      465239 464245 465248 471253 474260 478268 482274 485274
      487272 493268 496267 498263 499255 503249 505242
 0.25 415821 415818 414815 412814 410811 410807 410801 410796
      412788 410785 406786 401790 397793 393794 386796 381802
      377807 374815 370821 365827 362832 362836 366838 374835
      382832 387832 396830 397828 401826 404829 408828 414823
      415821
 0.25 403072 403066 402062 397057 394056 390056 387058 386061
      380065 375069 372073 372076 374080 377082 384084 389085
      394085 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 355082 352077 345075 340076 334080 332084 331091 335095
      340099 345098 349092 352086 355082
 0.25 345776 345770 342770 338775 329783 321787 313788 307787
      302785 293782 287782 272782 264782 256783 249784 243788
      238793 237799 241813 244822 247827 251831 258833 283842
      295849 302849 309847 314847 317845 321840 326835 329829
      332821 333813 332808 332804 335798 339792 341786 345776
 0.25 317097 316094 315092 312090 310089 306088 302088 301091
      301095 302097 305099 309100 312100 316099 317097
 0.50 516185 516181 516177 515173 514169 513167 509166 506166
      504167 503171 504174 505177 506181 507184 509186 512187
      514187 516185
 0.50 504244 506234 506225 505218 501212 496208 491209 481211
      478213 477218 478222 480223 480228 475232 472236 470241
      471245 478256 480262 483267 487268 488267 492264 496262
      497260 496252 501248 504244
 0.50 343091 344089 342088 342087 341086 340087 339089 338091
      339091 340092 342092 343091
 0.50 322812 324808 323803 319800 310797 302792 298790 293789
      281789 276789 271788 261786 254787 247790 243792 240795
      240801 243814 245818 248822 256826 262826 267828 275833
      284837 292842 298841 299836 299828 301823 306821 312821
      317819 319817 322812
 1.00 503241 504234 503228 502222 500218 497214 492214 489215
      486218 486223 487228 490234 492237 495240 498243 502242
      503241
 1.00 492258 493251 493245 490242 485239 482242 480239 479236
      475235 475241 478244 481247 483252 485256 487260 491259
      492258
 1.00 301806 299801 296798 290794 278795 270793 266792 261791
      253792 245795 243799 243805 245811 247815 253820 261819
      268822 274828 282831 285830 283827 277822 273819 270816
      269812 269808 275806 280807 284808 285812 286815 288814
      292812 300808 301806
 1.50 503238 502236 501233 500228 500224 498221 497219 493219
      491222 490224 491227 492231 493233 495236 497238 500240
      503238
 1.50 490255 491253 492250 491248 491247 490245 489244 488244
      486243 485246 485248 486250 486251 486254 487254 488257
      490255 490255
 1.50 291803 289802 287803 286804 287804 289804 291803 291803
 1.50 272799 268795 262794 255794 248795 245801 247809 249812
      254816 258813 261809 264804 269802 272799
 2.00 501238 501235 500233 499232 499229 498227 498224 497224
      496222 495221 493222 493225 493227 493230 495232 496234
      498236 499237 500238 501238 501238
 2.00 491250 489248 488249 488252 488254 490252 490251 491250
 2.00 267798 264796 259796 255795 252796 249796 246800 246802
      249807 253810 254809 257805 261803 265801 267798

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 282245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 2244Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 282245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 2244Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 282245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 2244Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 282245
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 2244Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE MSN MWC 10 E RAC 10 SSE UGN 10 SSE RPJ 15 NNW GBG
15 SSW MPZ 20 S OTM CNC 30 WNW DSM 10 W EBS 10 ESE DEH 15 NE MSN.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 472 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HURLEY/HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 282007
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A SHORT LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WEAK WITH THE SHORT
WAVE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO STRONG. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CONTINUITY...AND SOME OF THE DETAILS OF
THE QPF MAXIMUM WERE BASED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM.

CONVECTION IS REFIRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MCS
CROSSING EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BACKBUILDING OCCURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (IN THE FORM OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CENTRAL IA) SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 29/06Z...AND THE LATEST
NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEWLY FORMING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS PEAKING OVER EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI IN THE 29/00Z THROUGH 29/06Z TIME FRAME.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MODEST...PEAKING
BEFORE 29/06Z. THIS COULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FAIRLY
SMALL...CLOSER TO THE MCS ITSELF THROUGH 29/12Z.

A SWATH OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ALONG THE
EXPECTED PATH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE MAXIMUM QPF SWATH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO MI. TO THIS
POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES.
THIS BIAS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND THE MORE SOUTHERN MODELS WERE USED AS A
GUIDE FOR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN IA...AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD ALLOW THESE
VALUES TO FALL. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE REPLENISHED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET)...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AN EXCESSIVE
AREA WAS RETAINED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
MI.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST DURING SAT...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI AS THE
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO....AND ITS RETROGRESSION SLOWLY WEST WITH
TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF DETAILS WERE BASED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW.

CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA...NEAR LOCAL SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BEND BIG OF FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (NEAR 1.00 INCH)
WAS PLACED NEAR KPAM AND KAAF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW/12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL HERE.

THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL INFLOW (ABOUT 15 KNOTS OFF THE EASTERN
GULF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...POINTING TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COVER ENOUGH AREA TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISK OR SEE TEXT.  THE ACTIVITY REFIRES DURING THE DAY
SAT AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES...AGAIN CENTERED ON SURFACE
TROUGHS...SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INT SOUTHEAST GA.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND THE 12Z REGIONAL
GEM/12Z WRF ARW WERE USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUPPRESSES LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE (WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE HIGH AND MID
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TIED TO THE TERRAIN OF NM AND PORTIONS OF AZ. AXES OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF WERE STRUNG ALONG THE TERRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
AZ...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT... AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOWED A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS TAPPED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE WA/OR COASTS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z (DURING THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX). THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE THE
TERRAIN...SO WHILE THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE...IT IS NOT YET IDEAL.

A LONG AXIS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE THE
OLYMPICS IN WA AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN OR...AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES IN WA AND OR. THIS IS CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND...AND
NEAR THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE QPF SHOULD
COME IN WAVES...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO WHILE
LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A COMPLEX AND DEEPENING EARLY AUTUMNAL UPPER TROUGH COMPOSED OF
SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORT WAVES WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ON BOTH DAYS 2 TO 3/SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO WESTERN OREGON...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF LOCATED
ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  ONE STRONG
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WASHINGTON COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE A BROAD AND COLDER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL YIELD RAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN .25 INCHES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
OREGON.  MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE COMBINATION OF THE GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE FOLLOWED TO GENERATE THE QPF GRAPHICS FOR THE
REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNLIKE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON MORE OF A COMPOSITE
APPROACH SINCE THERE WAS LITTLE ACTUAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND EVEN WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE QPF FORECASTS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.  AN ELONGATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK BUT HARD TO DEFINE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WHATEVER HAPPENS TO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AND CERTAINLY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THERE.
PINPOINTING WHERE IS CURRENTLY VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY ESPECIALLY
SINCE ERIKA HAS NOT BEEN FOLLOWING ITS EXPECTED PATH AND ANY
INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
COULD INFLUENCE ITS STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT.  SO THE COMBINATION OF
UNCERTAINTY OF NOT ONLY PATH BUT ULTIMATE INTENSITY...OR LACK OF
IT...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED TO WILDLY VARYING MODEL RESULTS.  AS A RESULT...A MULTI
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WAS USED TO FORECAST THE QPF IN THIS
REGION BUT THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS VERY LOW.  FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE...HAVE KEPT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON DAYS 2 AND 3.


...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/SEA
OF CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ORGANIZATION IS MINIMAL
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE.

HURLEY/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 434318 440313 446310 451308 457304 462301 466301 470303
      472306 476307 482306 488305 495305 502305 507304 523262
      520255 519248 517238 517232 519229 528237 532230 534223
      537211 539204 541199 542192 542186 541182 533170 524162
      520156 516153 503145 497143 493141 491138 485135 483130
      478124 472123 468122 468127 471133 478142 482144 484146
      485151 484154 475149 469147 467150 465154 461160 456163
      452167 450171 451175 454179 456179 459180 468171 472171
      474170 478170 481172 484178 484186 484192 482195 478199
      465203 459203 453205 448207 443208 436209 430208 423210
      417213 414213 410212 403210 395210 395214 393222 392226
      389228 384232 381234 382238 384244 386247 383248 375255
      366265 362271 360282 363286 370287 384291 389294 393297
      399305
 0.01 525741 524725 522708 516687 508666 505661 501656 498654
      494652 491655 487657 481659 480663 476683 476706 475719
      474732 469754 464771 460783 454793 449794 445797 436799
      431804 426812 421820 419824 417829 409847 407855 403863
      395881 392887 387895 376909 368916 357918 344929 338935
      336937 336941 337947 340955 339959 336963 333971 333982
      339987 342989 342992 340997 330008 319024 315033 312037
      308034 306032 304030 303032 302036 305039 306044 307050
      302057 287064 279067 271070 260069 257072 255076 256081
      259083 265087 273092 283096 291101 294111 299118 307120
      313125 320130 323132 328134 331131 331128 328118 329114
      333115 337116 341120 342125 342127 345128 348130 350127
      356123 362123 364126 368123 369119 367117 362116 358113
      353111 351108 347098 343090 344079 339072 332074 327073
      326068 330065 333064 338063 341065 351067 357069 360072
      361077 363081 370083 373084 378083 381080 384075 390067
      395057 395055 392057 385061 382058 382053 379048 374047
      357048 351044 345037 343033 343026 345021 348016 356002
      358998 361993 367986 379972 385967 391960 403950 411945
      419941 429941 437938 443933 449926 452917 455910 459898
      461891 463895 463899 463915 465923 465937 465944 464948
      464962 466970 468975 472975 477972 479969 491955 496947
      500938 503928 504924 505918 506888 506871 509859 514837
      519817 522805 523795 524789 524780 525775 524767 525741
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 390114 387113 381115
      379119 375125 375130 378128 384129 386125 390118 394115
      398113 402111 405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 378803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 388804 392801 394798
 0.01 225743 212751 209760 208765 208767 215783 218791 224797
      232808 241822 244824 249824 254828 247833 244841 243843
      244849 241855 238865 237870 236875 236886 237888 243888
      252888 258885 267881 274878 279876 283877 289878 292880
      298885 301887 307887 316886 320888 322889 333889 336889
      339886 345881 353879 361877 366871 369864 371855 369849
      367847 364843 362840 360834 360826 359821 356819 347818
      341814 337806 337799 337795 340786 345779 358768 367753
      370743 369736 368723 367718 365715 359708 356705 351706
      342706 339708 333710 326714 321719 316725 316730 314734
      310741 305749 297762 288775 285776 284773 285768 286764
      286760 285754 283750 278741 276739 272737 264736 256734
      249733 235738
 0.25 425314 429311 433307 437301 441298 450292 459288 463286
      468286 481288 486287 491289 503293 508291 511288 515282
      517276 518271 519265 517260 514248 513239 513233 513226
      514221 518217 522218 526220 530218 533211 535204 536195
      537188 536185 533179 527171 516165 509173 501181 487200
      479205 469209 460212 451215 441218 435220 430223 429225
      426232 422232 415230 410227 406229 401232 398236 399243
      401247 407250 404253 399255 396259 392265 388271 388276
      391281 402287 413310
 0.25 510708 509698 506688 503680 500677 498677 495679 494682
      490690 487697 485704 483723 482743 480761 477779 476787
      475797 474806 472815 472822 472827 476837 482849 483855
      489853 493852 498845 500838 502827 506813 508771 509760
      510750 510729 510716 510708
 0.25 494914 494905 493898 492891 490886 486882 481882 478885
      476890 474896 473904 475917 476924 476930 475938 477942
      482941 486938 491927 494915 494914
 0.25 454867 454857 454847 453838 450833 445831 439833 435835
      430840 423849 417859 406882 403887 401895 398907 387929
      385931 385935 387938 390939 400936 424928 428925 431920
      438909 448887 452875 454867
 0.25 372936 372932 370930 362931 357934 354936 350941 348947
      352951 355952 361949 366945 370941 372936
 0.25 355741 356736 355731 351724 346722 338722 327729 322734
      318739 316746 316753 314762 313771 313779 313788 312796
      309801 304805 296805 295800 291799 289797 279796 272795
      266798 289807 295809 299815 303821 302826 306831 308837
      306840 303839 299835 294832 288830 279830 273834 255852
      250865 248869 250871 257871 264870 269866 276863 282863
      296867 302868 310868 313869 316871 321874 328875 335871
      339868 342861 340856 336852 327842 320827 322816 323807
      325801 335771 338766 342761 350751 355741
 0.25 340098 341096 340094 339093 338092 337093 336095 338097
      339098 340098 340098
 0.25 336086 335085 334085 332085 331086 331088 333089 335088
      336086
 0.25 336058 337056 336054 334054 332054 330054 329053 327053
      326055 326057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
      336058
 0.25 331081 330079 329080 327081 328083 328084 330083 331081
 0.25 309100 310098 309096 308094 307093 306091 304093 302095
      302096 301097 303099 304100 305100 307101 309101 309100
 0.25 306087 305081 301077 296074 291073 285072 280074 278078
      279081 282085 286086 289085 294086 299090 302091 306089
      306087
 0.25 280815 278811 276810 275809 271808 267808 264809 261809
      259809 260811 262813 264815 267816 269818 272819 275819
      278817 280815
 0.25 254814 254812 253810 253809 251808 251807 250808 249810
      249812 251814 252814 253814 254814
 0.25 243756 244750 242744 239741 235741 232743 229745 226749
      225753 228757 230759 234760 240760 243757 243756
 0.50 530202 531197 531194 530189 528188 527188 525186 522184
      519185 517188 517193 517198 517201 520204 522205 525206
      526206 529205 530202
 0.50 515272 516264 515259 513248 509227 506217 505204 502200
      498200 490202 475209 461215 454218 447222 447231 441239
      437240 433240 422236 415234 412237 411242 417247 423250
      426253 425257 422261 416267 411275 411283 413287 415297
      418306 421308 424307 430301 436294 442290 448285 452283
      456282 463278 471276 479279 489281 496281 503276 506273
      509273 513274 515272
 0.50 504730 504713 501705 499703 495699 491700 489711 487737
      486750 485763 483790 482797 483800 485798 487800 486804
      486811 485820 485825 487831 489829 490821 492810 491802
      493795 499788 501784 502778 503773 503764 502756 503750
      504736 504730
 0.50 487917 487912 487907 487902 486899 484897 483897 480899
      479902 479906 479909 479912 480917 482919 484921 487919
      487917
 0.50 449867 450860 449852 448847 444846 442846 437845 435844
      432847 426855 421863 416870 413880 410889 407898 405911
      403919 403926 407928 416926 421925 426924 431916 438899
      446881 449867
 0.50 351738 350732 349729 346727 342726 337727 330732 325736
      321743 320747 321752 324758 329759 333757 338753 344748
      348743 351738
 0.50 323795 323793 323790 323788 323786 322784 320786 320787
      319789 319791 319793 319794 319795 319797 319798 321798
      322797 323796 323795
 0.50 309856 303846 295836 291834 286833 280834 277839 272849
      263856 260861 264863 270861 273857 274855 278854 282857
      288859 295859 301859 306858 309856
 0.50 303087 303085 303084 302082 301082 299080 298079 296078
      294078 292079 291081 292082 294083 295084 297085 299086
      300086 301087 302087 303087
 0.50 239751 239749 239747 238745 236745 234745 232746 231748
      232750 233752 234754 235754 237754 238753 239753 239751
 1.00 508256 509249 508242 505230 501218 496209 493206 488206
      484207 480211 479214 484214 485219 489223 494233 494241
      490241 485238 481234 478230 472231 463235 459247 459255
      462259 463264 466267 471267 475265 484262 488265 493269
      495270 500269 504259 508256
 1.00 430289 431285 431282 428279 425279 423280 420283 419286
      419290 419293 420296 421299 424300 426298 428296 429292
      430289
 1.00 441875 441870 440866 437861 432858 429859 427861 425867
      423874 421880 418886 415898 413905 415907 416910 414917
      415922 417922 423920 426915 431904 433897 435890 440878
      441875
 1.00 300849 299845 298842 296840 294839 292838 288837 286837
      284838 283841 282844 283848 284850 286852 289853 293853
      296852 298851 300849
 1.50 490250 490247 490245 490244 488243 487243 486243 485245
      486248 486249 487249 489251 490250
 1.50 481244 480242 480241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233
      472234 471236 470238 471241 471242 472244 473245 474246
      476246 477246 479246 479245 481244
 1.50 431883 431881 431878 430878 429878 428879 427881 426881
      425882 424883 423886 423888 422891 423893 424895 425894
      426893 427891 427890 428888 428886 429886 430884 431883
 1.50 427900 427899 425898 424898 422900 421902 420903 420905
      419907 419909 419910 418912 419914 420914 421915 421914
      422913 423912 424910 425909 426907 426905 427902 427901
      427900
 1.50 294847 295845 294844 293843 292842 291843 290844 289845
      290847 292848 294847 294847

24HR QP VT 31/00Z



24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 522184 524170 524165 523162 519156 516155 514152 512149
      509149 506151 503151 495150 490152 485159 482165 483169
      483174 482181 480185 479189 477193 472198 465209 462212
      461216 458224 454232 448234 446243 449244 451247 454254
      460260 465264 468267 468272 470279 473286 477294 482296
      489281 495278 499272 502266 505258 508247 510236 512227
      514216 522184
 0.01 533920 533913 531908 527901 523897 520897 519900 515919
      513923 510925 504926 498930 494939 493943 491944 486949
      472974 468982 465991 458005 448013 439021 433028 433037
      441039 447038 451038 452042 454044 457044 464040 467037
      471037 474039 480047 485052 482054 478054 473058 469063
      464069 460072 452075 444075 443077 444079 448080 450083
      454084 456086 461092 461097 460103 457110 462112 469108
      473103 476096 484081 487076 491069 494060 494058 491055
      487053 490051 494046 502035 509024 511019 510015 506008
      496000 493998 495995 500990 504985 509983 516978 522974
      526968 528965 528962 526955 523947 520944 522939 525934
      533920
 0.01 473695 471683 467674 462665 452669 449672 448675 450680
      451686 452693 454698 456712 459722 461718 461711 461706
      463700 471696 473695
 0.01 443829 436797 431789 424782 420776 421773 415763 399760
      393757 389758 388765 390769 391773 391777 390780 387783
      379790 372798 369801 364804 358805 352804 349799 348791
      349787 351785 355781 361776 363771 365766 364762 359753
      351744 348740 345743 335760 252774 245776 240778 236779
      235782 231786 228790 228796 229802 231807 236817 239829
      240832 239835 240837 244841 246847 253857 262862 267865
      270868 273872 276877 278883 278890 278894 276898 274901
      264917 261930 264943 264951 260951 256949 253951 252957
      252964 252972 252977 255981 259984 263986 266985 278981
      288977 293974 297970 299968 302963 304957 305951 307945
      307939 301933 301920 303914 306907 307904 310903 314899
      326884 332876 336872 342870 339875 339880 349882 363881
      375876 386872 390870 395869 405864 409862 415861 421860
      424855 429848 438837 443829
 0.01 431042 429037 427034 424033 419031 416029 412028 411026
      405026 396027 391032 388036 385042 381043 360038 355039
      351040 349041 342046 333052 328059 321070 318073 314076
      309079 305079 297073 293070 287067 280067 278069 277077
      278083 285089 289093 291099 294103 297106 300111 301116
      305119 310120 331115 342114 346116 349114 367102 371101
      374102 383098 400099 403102 407105 411108 414104 417087
      418082 417076 416069 417063 423054 428047 431042
 0.25 517188 519178 520172 519168 516163 510160 504161 500164
      499170 500178 502186 505192 508198 511199 514197 515195
      517188
 0.25 505242 508229 508223 507219 505210 502207 498206 493205
      487205 479208 475212 470218 470223 472226 471231 469234
      465239 464245 465248 471253 474260 478268 482274 485274
      487272 493268 496267 498263 499255 503249 505242
 0.25 415821 415818 414815 412814 410811 410807 410801 410796
      412788 410785 406786 401790 397793 393794 386796 381802
      377807 374815 370821 365827 362832 362836 366838 374835
      382832 387832 396830 397828 401826 404829 408828 414823
      415821
 0.25 403072 403066 402062 397057 394056 390056 387058 386061
      380065 375069 372073 372076 374080 377082 384084 389085
      394085 397083 400076 403072
 0.25 355082 352077 345075 340076 334080 332084 331091 335095
      340099 345098 349092 352086 355082
 0.25 345776 345770 342770 338775 329783 321787 313788 307787
      302785 293782 287782 272782 264782 256783 249784 243788
      238793 237799 241813 244822 247827 251831 258833 283842
      295849 302849 309847 314847 317845 321840 326835 329829
      332821 333813 332808 332804 335798 339792 341786 345776
 0.25 317097 316094 315092 312090 310089 306088 302088 301091
      301095 302097 305099 309100 312100 316099 317097
 0.50 516185 516181 516177 515173 514169 513167 509166 506166
      504167 503171 504174 505177 506181 507184 509186 512187
      514187 516185
 0.50 504244 506234 506225 505218 501212 496208 491209 481211
      478213 477218 478222 480223 480228 475232 472236 470241
      471245 478256 480262 483267 487268 488267 492264 496262
      497260 496252 501248 504244
 0.50 343091 344089 342088 342087 341086 340087 339089 338091
      339091 340092 342092 343091
 0.50 322812 324808 323803 319800 310797 302792 298790 293789
      281789 276789 271788 261786 254787 247790 243792 240795
      240801 243814 245818 248822 256826 262826 267828 275833
      284837 292842 298841 299836 299828 301823 306821 312821
      317819 319817 322812
 1.00 503241 504234 503228 502222 500218 497214 492214 489215
      486218 486223 487228 490234 492237 495240 498243 502242
      503241
 1.00 492258 493251 493245 490242 485239 482242 480239 479236
      475235 475241 478244 481247 483252 485256 487260 491259
      492258
 1.00 301806 299801 296798 290794 278795 270793 266792 261791
      253792 245795 243799 243805 245811 247815 253820 261819
      268822 274828 282831 285830 283827 277822 273819 270816
      269812 269808 275806 280807 284808 285812 286815 288814
      292812 300808 301806
 1.50 503238 502236 501233 500228 500224 498221 497219 493219
      491222 490224 491227 492231 493233 495236 497238 500240
      503238
 1.50 490255 491253 492250 491248 491247 490245 489244 488244
      486243 485246 485248 486250 486251 486254 487254 488257
      490255 490255
 1.50 291803 289802 287803 286804 287804 289804 291803 291803
 1.50 272799 268795 262794 255794 248795 245801 247809 249812
      254816 258813 261809 264804 269802 272799
 2.00 501238 501235 500233 499232 499229 498227 498224 497224
      496222 495221 493222 493225 493227 493230 495232 496234
      498236 499237 500238 501238 501238
 2.00 491250 489248 488249 488252 488254 490252 490251 491250
 2.00 267798 264796 259796 255795 252796 249796 246800 246802
      249807 253810 254809 257805 261803 265801 267798

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 281850
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 1849Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S SQI 15 SE MLI 10 SE MUT AWG 20 NNE OTM DSM 25 SSW BNW
20 SW FOD 15 ENE AXA 15 SE AUM 20 SW LSE 25 ESE VOK 10 W OSH
20 NW SBM 25 ESE SBM 35 ENE MKE 10 ESE UGN DKB 15 S SQI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 471 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 281850
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 1849Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S SQI 15 SE MLI 10 SE MUT AWG 20 NNE OTM DSM 25 SSW BNW
20 SW FOD 15 ENE AXA 15 SE AUM 20 SW LSE 25 ESE VOK 10 W OSH
20 NW SBM 25 ESE SBM 35 ENE MKE 10 ESE UGN DKB 15 S SQI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 471 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281850
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 1849Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S SQI 15 SE MLI 10 SE MUT AWG 20 NNE OTM DSM 25 SSW BNW
20 SW FOD 15 ENE AXA 15 SE AUM 20 SW LSE 25 ESE VOK 10 W OSH
20 NW SBM 25 ESE SBM 35 ENE MKE 10 ESE UGN DKB 15 S SQI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 471 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.

HAYES
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 281844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A SHORT LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WEAK WITH THE SHORT
WAVE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO STRONG. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CONTINUITY...AND SOME OF THE DETAILS OF
THE QPF MAXIMUM WERE BASED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM.

CONVECTION IS REFIRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MCS
CROSSING EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BACKBUILDING OCCURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (IN THE FORM OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CENTRAL IA) SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 29/06Z...AND THE LATEST
NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEWLY FORMING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS PEAKING OVER EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI IN THE 29/00Z THROUGH 29/06Z TIME FRAME.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MODEST...PEAKING
BEFORE 29/06Z. THIS COULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FAIRLY
SMALL...CLOSER TO THE MCS ITSELF THROUGH 29/12Z.

A SWATH OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ALONG THE
EXPECTED PATH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE MAXIMUM QPF SWATH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO MI. TO THIS
POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES.
THIS BIAS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND THE MORE SOUTHERN MODELS WERE USED AS A
GUIDE FOR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN IA...AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD ALLOW THESE
VALUES TO FALL. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE REPLENISHED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET)...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AN EXCESSIVE
AREA WAS RETAINED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
MI.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST DURING SAT...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI AS THE
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO....AND ITS RETROGRESSION SLOWLY WEST WITH
TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF DETAILS WERE BASED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW.

CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA...NEAR LOCAL SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BEND BIG OF FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (NEAR 1.00 INCH)
WAS PLACED NEAR KPAM AND KAAF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW/12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL HERE.

THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL INFLOW (ABOUT 15 KNOTS OFF THE EASTERN
GULF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...POINTING TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COVER ENOUGH AREA TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISK OR SEE TEXT.  THE ACTIVITY REFIRES DURING THE DAY
SAT AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES...AGAIN CENTERED ON SURFACE
TROUGHS...SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INT SOUTHEAST GA.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND THE 12Z REGIONAL
GEM/12Z WRF ARW WERE USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUPPRESSES LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE (WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE HIGH AND MID
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TIED TO THE TERRAIN OF NM AND PORTIONS OF AZ. AXES OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF WERE STRUNG ALONG THE TERRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
AZ...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT... AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOWED A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS TAPPED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE WA/OR COASTS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z (DURING THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX). THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE THE
TERRAIN...SO WHILE THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE...IT IS NOT YET IDEAL.

A LONG AXIS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE THE
OLYMPICS IN WA AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN OR...AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES IN WA AND OR. THIS IS CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND...AND
NEAR THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE QPF SHOULD
COME IN WAVES...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO WHILE
LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 434318 440313 446310 451308 457304 462301 466301 470303
      472306 476307 482306 488305 495305 502305 507304 523262
      520255 519248 517238 517232 519229 528237 532230 534223
      537211 539204 541199 542192 542186 541182 533170 524162
      520156 516153 503145 497143 493141 491138 485135 483130
      478124 472123 468122 468127 471133 478142 482144 484146
      485151 484154 475149 469147 467150 465154 461160 456163
      452167 450171 451175 454179 456179 459180 468171 472171
      474170 478170 481172 484178 484186 484192 482195 478199
      465203 459203 453205 448207 443208 436209 430208 423210
      417213 414213 410212 403210 395210 395214 393222 392226
      389228 384232 381234 382238 384244 386247 383248 375255
      366265 362271 360282 363286 370287 384291 389294 393297
      399305
 0.01 525741 524725 522708 516687 508666 505661 501656 498654
      494652 491655 487657 481659 480663 476683 476706 475719
      474732 469754 464771 460783 454793 449794 445797 436799
      431804 426812 421820 419824 417829 409847 407855 403863
      395881 392887 387895 376909 368916 357918 344929 338935
      336937 336941 337947 340955 339959 336963 333971 333982
      339987 342989 342992 340997 330008 319024 315033 312037
      308034 306032 304030 303032 302036 305039 306044 307050
      302057 287064 279067 271070 260069 257072 255076 256081
      259083 265087 273092 283096 291101 294111 299118 307120
      313125 320130 323132 328134 331131 331128 328118 329114
      333115 337116 341120 342125 342127 345128 348130 350127
      356123 362123 364126 368123 369119 367117 362116 358113
      353111 351108 347098 343090 344079 339072 332074 327073
      326068 330065 333064 338063 341065 351067 357069 360072
      361077 363081 370083 373084 378083 381080 384075 390067
      395057 395055 392057 385061 382058 382053 379048 374047
      357048 351044 345037 343033 343026 345021 348016 356002
      358998 361993 367986 379972 385967 391960 403950 411945
      419941 429941 437938 443933 449926 452917 455910 459898
      461891 463895 463899 463915 465923 465937 465944 464948
      464962 466970 468975 472975 477972 479969 491955 496947
      500938 503928 504924 505918 506888 506871 509859 514837
      519817 522805 523795 524789 524780 525775 524767 525741
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 390114 387113 381115
      379119 375125 375130 378128 384129 386125 390118 394115
      398113 402111 405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 378803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 388804 392801 394798
 0.01 225743 212751 209760 208765 208767 215783 218791 224797
      232808 241822 244824 249824 254828 247833 244841 243843
      244849 241855 238865 237870 236875 236886 237888 243888
      252888 258885 267881 274878 279876 283877 289878 292880
      298885 301887 307887 316886 320888 322889 333889 336889
      339886 345881 353879 361877 366871 369864 371855 369849
      367847 364843 362840 360834 360826 359821 356819 347818
      341814 337806 337799 337795 340786 345779 358768 367753
      370743 369736 368723 367718 365715 359708 356705 351706
      342706 339708 333710 326714 321719 316725 316730 314734
      310741 305749 297762 288775 285776 284773 285768 286764
      286760 285754 283750 278741 276739 272737 264736 256734
      249733 235738
 0.25 425314 429311 433307 437301 441298 450292 459288 463286
      468286 481288 486287 491289 503293 508291 511288 515282
      517276 518271 519265 517260 514248 513239 513233 513226
      514221 518217 522218 526220 530218 533211 535204 536195
      537188 536185 533179 527171 516165 509173 501181 487200
      479205 469209 460212 451215 441218 435220 430223 429225
      426232 422232 415230 410227 406229 401232 398236 399243
      401247 407250 404253 399255 396259 392265 388271 388276
      391281 402287 413310
 0.25 510708 509698 506688 503680 500677 498677 495679 494682
      490690 487697 485704 483723 482743 480761 477779 476787
      475797 474806 472815 472822 472827 476837 482849 483855
      489853 493852 498845 500838 502827 506813 508771 509760
      510750 510729 510716 510708
 0.25 494914 494905 493898 492891 490886 486882 481882 478885
      476890 474896 473904 475917 476924 476930 475938 477942
      482941 486938 491927 494915 494914
 0.25 454867 454857 454847 453838 450833 445831 439833 435835
      430840 423849 417859 406882 403887 401895 398907 387929
      385931 385935 387938 390939 400936 424928 428925 431920
      438909 448887 452875 454867
 0.25 372936 372932 370930 362931 357934 354936 350941 348947
      352951 355952 361949 366945 370941 372936
 0.25 355741 356736 355731 351724 346722 338722 327729 322734
      318739 316746 316753 314762 313771 313779 313788 312796
      309801 304805 296805 295800 291799 289797 279796 272795
      266798 289807 295809 299815 303821 302826 306831 308837
      306840 303839 299835 294832 288830 279830 273834 255852
      250865 248869 250871 257871 264870 269866 276863 282863
      296867 302868 310868 313869 316871 321874 328875 335871
      339868 342861 340856 336852 327842 320827 322816 323807
      325801 335771 338766 342761 350751 355741
 0.25 340098 341096 340094 339093 338092 337093 336095 338097
      339098 340098 340098
 0.25 336086 335085 334085 332085 331086 331088 333089 335088
      336086
 0.25 336058 337056 336054 334054 332054 330054 329053 327053
      326055 326057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
      336058
 0.25 331081 330079 329080 327081 328083 328084 330083 331081
 0.25 309100 310098 309096 308094 307093 306091 304093 302095
      302096 301097 303099 304100 305100 307101 309101 309100
 0.25 306087 305081 301077 296074 291073 285072 280074 278078
      279081 282085 286086 289085 294086 299090 302091 306089
      306087
 0.25 280815 278811 276810 275809 271808 267808 264809 261809
      259809 260811 262813 264815 267816 269818 272819 275819
      278817 280815
 0.25 254814 254812 253810 253809 251808 251807 250808 249810
      249812 251814 252814 253814 254814
 0.25 243756 244750 242744 239741 235741 232743 229745 226749
      225753 228757 230759 234760 240760 243757 243756
 0.50 530202 531197 531194 530189 528188 527188 525186 522184
      519185 517188 517193 517198 517201 520204 522205 525206
      526206 529205 530202
 0.50 515272 516264 515259 513248 509227 506217 505204 502200
      498200 490202 475209 461215 454218 447222 447231 441239
      437240 433240 422236 415234 412237 411242 417247 423250
      426253 425257 422261 416267 411275 411283 413287 415297
      418306 421308 424307 430301 436294 442290 448285 452283
      456282 463278 471276 479279 489281 496281 503276 506273
      509273 513274 515272
 0.50 504730 504713 501705 499703 495699 491700 489711 487737
      486750 485763 483790 482797 483800 485798 487800 486804
      486811 485820 485825 487831 489829 490821 492810 491802
      493795 499788 501784 502778 503773 503764 502756 503750
      504736 504730
 0.50 487917 487912 487907 487902 486899 484897 483897 480899
      479902 479906 479909 479912 480917 482919 484921 487919
      487917
 0.50 449867 450860 449852 448847 444846 442846 437845 435844
      432847 426855 421863 416870 413880 410889 407898 405911
      403919 403926 407928 416926 421925 426924 431916 438899
      446881 449867
 0.50 351738 350732 349729 346727 342726 337727 330732 325736
      321743 320747 321752 324758 329759 333757 338753 344748
      348743 351738
 0.50 323795 323793 323790 323788 323786 322784 320786 320787
      319789 319791 319793 319794 319795 319797 319798 321798
      322797 323796 323795
 0.50 309856 303846 295836 291834 286833 280834 277839 272849
      263856 260861 264863 270861 273857 274855 278854 282857
      288859 295859 301859 306858 309856
 0.50 303087 303085 303084 302082 301082 299080 298079 296078
      294078 292079 291081 292082 294083 295084 297085 299086
      300086 301087 302087 303087
 0.50 239751 239749 239747 238745 236745 234745 232746 231748
      232750 233752 234754 235754 237754 238753 239753 239751
 1.00 508256 509249 508242 505230 501218 496209 493206 488206
      484207 480211 479214 484214 485219 489223 494233 494241
      490241 485238 481234 478230 472231 463235 459247 459255
      462259 463264 466267 471267 475265 484262 488265 493269
      495270 500269 504259 508256
 1.00 430289 431285 431282 428279 425279 423280 420283 419286
      419290 419293 420296 421299 424300 426298 428296 429292
      430289
 1.00 441875 441870 440866 437861 432858 429859 427861 425867
      423874 421880 418886 415898 413905 415907 416910 414917
      415922 417922 423920 426915 431904 433897 435890 440878
      441875
 1.00 300849 299845 298842 296840 294839 292838 288837 286837
      284838 283841 282844 283848 284850 286852 289853 293853
      296852 298851 300849
 1.50 490250 490247 490245 490244 488243 487243 486243 485245
      486248 486249 487249 489251 490250
 1.50 481244 480242 480241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233
      472234 471236 470238 471241 471242 472244 473245 474246
      476246 477246 479246 479245 481244
 1.50 431883 431881 431878 430878 429878 428879 427881 426881
      425882 424883 423886 423888 422891 423893 424895 425894
      426893 427891 427890 428888 428886 429886 430884 431883
 1.50 427900 427899 425898 424898 422900 421902 420903 420905
      419907 419909 419910 418912 419914 420914 421915 421914
      422913 423912 424910 425909 426907 426905 427902 427901
      427900
 1.50 294847 295845 294844 293843 292842 291843 290844 289845
      290847 292848 294847 294847

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 281844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A SHORT LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST AND WEAK WITH THE SHORT
WAVE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO STRONG. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CONTINUITY...AND SOME OF THE DETAILS OF
THE QPF MAXIMUM WERE BASED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM.

CONVECTION IS REFIRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MCS
CROSSING EASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND BACKBUILDING OCCURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
INFLOW (IN THE FORM OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CROSSING CENTRAL IA) SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 29/06Z...AND THE LATEST
NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEWLY FORMING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS PEAKING OVER EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
IL/SOUTHERN WI IN THE 29/00Z THROUGH 29/06Z TIME FRAME.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MODEST...PEAKING
BEFORE 29/06Z. THIS COULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FAIRLY
SMALL...CLOSER TO THE MCS ITSELF THROUGH 29/12Z.

A SWATH OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ALONG THE
EXPECTED PATH OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE MAXIMUM QPF SWATH ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO MI. TO THIS
POINT...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES.
THIS BIAS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND THE MORE SOUTHERN MODELS WERE USED AS A
GUIDE FOR PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN IA...AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN COULD ALLOW THESE
VALUES TO FALL. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE REPLENISHED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET)...HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AN EXCESSIVE
AREA WAS RETAINED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
MI.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST DURING SAT...THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LP OF MI AS THE
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHEAST GA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO....AND ITS RETROGRESSION SLOWLY WEST WITH
TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF DETAILS WERE BASED
ON THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW.

CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA...NEAR LOCAL SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BEND BIG OF FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (NEAR 1.00 INCH)
WAS PLACED NEAR KPAM AND KAAF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OFFSHORE.
SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW/12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL HERE.

THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL INFLOW (ABOUT 15 KNOTS OFF THE EASTERN
GULF) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...POINTING TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO COVER ENOUGH AREA TO SUPPORT
A SLIGHT RISK OR SEE TEXT.  THE ACTIVITY REFIRES DURING THE DAY
SAT AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES...AGAIN CENTERED ON SURFACE
TROUGHS...SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INT SOUTHEAST GA.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. FOR THE MOST PART... THERE WAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...AND THE 12Z REGIONAL
GEM/12Z WRF ARW WERE USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF
MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUPPRESSES LARGE SCALE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE (WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE HIGH AND MID
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TIED TO THE TERRAIN OF NM AND PORTIONS OF AZ. AXES OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF WERE STRUNG ALONG THE TERRAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
AZ...EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHERN CO. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT... AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN WAS USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOWED A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THIS
MOISTURE IS TAPPED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE WA/OR COASTS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z (DURING THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX). THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE THE
TERRAIN...SO WHILE THE FLOW IS UPSLOPE...IT IS NOT YET IDEAL.

A LONG AXIS OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WAS PLACED OVER THE THE
OLYMPICS IN WA AND THE COASTAL RANGE IN OR...AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES IN WA AND OR. THIS IS CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND...AND
NEAR THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE QPF SHOULD
COME IN WAVES...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO WHILE
LOCAL FLOOD ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 434318 440313 446310 451308 457304 462301 466301 470303
      472306 476307 482306 488305 495305 502305 507304 523262
      520255 519248 517238 517232 519229 528237 532230 534223
      537211 539204 541199 542192 542186 541182 533170 524162
      520156 516153 503145 497143 493141 491138 485135 483130
      478124 472123 468122 468127 471133 478142 482144 484146
      485151 484154 475149 469147 467150 465154 461160 456163
      452167 450171 451175 454179 456179 459180 468171 472171
      474170 478170 481172 484178 484186 484192 482195 478199
      465203 459203 453205 448207 443208 436209 430208 423210
      417213 414213 410212 403210 395210 395214 393222 392226
      389228 384232 381234 382238 384244 386247 383248 375255
      366265 362271 360282 363286 370287 384291 389294 393297
      399305
 0.01 525741 524725 522708 516687 508666 505661 501656 498654
      494652 491655 487657 481659 480663 476683 476706 475719
      474732 469754 464771 460783 454793 449794 445797 436799
      431804 426812 421820 419824 417829 409847 407855 403863
      395881 392887 387895 376909 368916 357918 344929 338935
      336937 336941 337947 340955 339959 336963 333971 333982
      339987 342989 342992 340997 330008 319024 315033 312037
      308034 306032 304030 303032 302036 305039 306044 307050
      302057 287064 279067 271070 260069 257072 255076 256081
      259083 265087 273092 283096 291101 294111 299118 307120
      313125 320130 323132 328134 331131 331128 328118 329114
      333115 337116 341120 342125 342127 345128 348130 350127
      356123 362123 364126 368123 369119 367117 362116 358113
      353111 351108 347098 343090 344079 339072 332074 327073
      326068 330065 333064 338063 341065 351067 357069 360072
      361077 363081 370083 373084 378083 381080 384075 390067
      395057 395055 392057 385061 382058 382053 379048 374047
      357048 351044 345037 343033 343026 345021 348016 356002
      358998 361993 367986 379972 385967 391960 403950 411945
      419941 429941 437938 443933 449926 452917 455910 459898
      461891 463895 463899 463915 465923 465937 465944 464948
      464962 466970 468975 472975 477972 479969 491955 496947
      500938 503928 504924 505918 506888 506871 509859 514837
      519817 522805 523795 524789 524780 525775 524767 525741
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 390114 387113 381115
      379119 375125 375130 378128 384129 386125 390118 394115
      398113 402111 405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 378803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 388804 392801 394798
 0.01 225743 212751 209760 208765 208767 215783 218791 224797
      232808 241822 244824 249824 254828 247833 244841 243843
      244849 241855 238865 237870 236875 236886 237888 243888
      252888 258885 267881 274878 279876 283877 289878 292880
      298885 301887 307887 316886 320888 322889 333889 336889
      339886 345881 353879 361877 366871 369864 371855 369849
      367847 364843 362840 360834 360826 359821 356819 347818
      341814 337806 337799 337795 340786 345779 358768 367753
      370743 369736 368723 367718 365715 359708 356705 351706
      342706 339708 333710 326714 321719 316725 316730 314734
      310741 305749 297762 288775 285776 284773 285768 286764
      286760 285754 283750 278741 276739 272737 264736 256734
      249733 235738
 0.25 425314 429311 433307 437301 441298 450292 459288 463286
      468286 481288 486287 491289 503293 508291 511288 515282
      517276 518271 519265 517260 514248 513239 513233 513226
      514221 518217 522218 526220 530218 533211 535204 536195
      537188 536185 533179 527171 516165 509173 501181 487200
      479205 469209 460212 451215 441218 435220 430223 429225
      426232 422232 415230 410227 406229 401232 398236 399243
      401247 407250 404253 399255 396259 392265 388271 388276
      391281 402287 413310
 0.25 510708 509698 506688 503680 500677 498677 495679 494682
      490690 487697 485704 483723 482743 480761 477779 476787
      475797 474806 472815 472822 472827 476837 482849 483855
      489853 493852 498845 500838 502827 506813 508771 509760
      510750 510729 510716 510708
 0.25 494914 494905 493898 492891 490886 486882 481882 478885
      476890 474896 473904 475917 476924 476930 475938 477942
      482941 486938 491927 494915 494914
 0.25 454867 454857 454847 453838 450833 445831 439833 435835
      430840 423849 417859 406882 403887 401895 398907 387929
      385931 385935 387938 390939 400936 424928 428925 431920
      438909 448887 452875 454867
 0.25 372936 372932 370930 362931 357934 354936 350941 348947
      352951 355952 361949 366945 370941 372936
 0.25 355741 356736 355731 351724 346722 338722 327729 322734
      318739 316746 316753 314762 313771 313779 313788 312796
      309801 304805 296805 295800 291799 289797 279796 272795
      266798 289807 295809 299815 303821 302826 306831 308837
      306840 303839 299835 294832 288830 279830 273834 255852
      250865 248869 250871 257871 264870 269866 276863 282863
      296867 302868 310868 313869 316871 321874 328875 335871
      339868 342861 340856 336852 327842 320827 322816 323807
      325801 335771 338766 342761 350751 355741
 0.25 340098 341096 340094 339093 338092 337093 336095 338097
      339098 340098 340098
 0.25 336086 335085 334085 332085 331086 331088 333089 335088
      336086
 0.25 336058 337056 336054 334054 332054 330054 329053 327053
      326055 326057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 336058
      336058
 0.25 331081 330079 329080 327081 328083 328084 330083 331081
 0.25 309100 310098 309096 308094 307093 306091 304093 302095
      302096 301097 303099 304100 305100 307101 309101 309100
 0.25 306087 305081 301077 296074 291073 285072 280074 278078
      279081 282085 286086 289085 294086 299090 302091 306089
      306087
 0.25 280815 278811 276810 275809 271808 267808 264809 261809
      259809 260811 262813 264815 267816 269818 272819 275819
      278817 280815
 0.25 254814 254812 253810 253809 251808 251807 250808 249810
      249812 251814 252814 253814 254814
 0.25 243756 244750 242744 239741 235741 232743 229745 226749
      225753 228757 230759 234760 240760 243757 243756
 0.50 530202 531197 531194 530189 528188 527188 525186 522184
      519185 517188 517193 517198 517201 520204 522205 525206
      526206 529205 530202
 0.50 515272 516264 515259 513248 509227 506217 505204 502200
      498200 490202 475209 461215 454218 447222 447231 441239
      437240 433240 422236 415234 412237 411242 417247 423250
      426253 425257 422261 416267 411275 411283 413287 415297
      418306 421308 424307 430301 436294 442290 448285 452283
      456282 463278 471276 479279 489281 496281 503276 506273
      509273 513274 515272
 0.50 504730 504713 501705 499703 495699 491700 489711 487737
      486750 485763 483790 482797 483800 485798 487800 486804
      486811 485820 485825 487831 489829 490821 492810 491802
      493795 499788 501784 502778 503773 503764 502756 503750
      504736 504730
 0.50 487917 487912 487907 487902 486899 484897 483897 480899
      479902 479906 479909 479912 480917 482919 484921 487919
      487917
 0.50 449867 450860 449852 448847 444846 442846 437845 435844
      432847 426855 421863 416870 413880 410889 407898 405911
      403919 403926 407928 416926 421925 426924 431916 438899
      446881 449867
 0.50 351738 350732 349729 346727 342726 337727 330732 325736
      321743 320747 321752 324758 329759 333757 338753 344748
      348743 351738
 0.50 323795 323793 323790 323788 323786 322784 320786 320787
      319789 319791 319793 319794 319795 319797 319798 321798
      322797 323796 323795
 0.50 309856 303846 295836 291834 286833 280834 277839 272849
      263856 260861 264863 270861 273857 274855 278854 282857
      288859 295859 301859 306858 309856
 0.50 303087 303085 303084 302082 301082 299080 298079 296078
      294078 292079 291081 292082 294083 295084 297085 299086
      300086 301087 302087 303087
 0.50 239751 239749 239747 238745 236745 234745 232746 231748
      232750 233752 234754 235754 237754 238753 239753 239751
 1.00 508256 509249 508242 505230 501218 496209 493206 488206
      484207 480211 479214 484214 485219 489223 494233 494241
      490241 485238 481234 478230 472231 463235 459247 459255
      462259 463264 466267 471267 475265 484262 488265 493269
      495270 500269 504259 508256
 1.00 430289 431285 431282 428279 425279 423280 420283 419286
      419290 419293 420296 421299 424300 426298 428296 429292
      430289
 1.00 441875 441870 440866 437861 432858 429859 427861 425867
      423874 421880 418886 415898 413905 415907 416910 414917
      415922 417922 423920 426915 431904 433897 435890 440878
      441875
 1.00 300849 299845 298842 296840 294839 292838 288837 286837
      284838 283841 282844 283848 284850 286852 289853 293853
      296852 298851 300849
 1.50 490250 490247 490245 490244 488243 487243 486243 485245
      486248 486249 487249 489251 490250
 1.50 481244 480242 480241 479238 478236 477234 476233 474233
      472234 471236 470238 471241 471242 472244 473245 474246
      476246 477246 479246 479245 481244
 1.50 431883 431881 431878 430878 429878 428879 427881 426881
      425882 424883 423886 423888 422891 423893 424895 425894
      426893 427891 427890 428888 428886 429886 430884 431883
 1.50 427900 427899 425898 424898 422900 421902 420903 420905
      419907 419909 419910 418912 419914 420914 421915 421914
      422913 423912 424910 425909 426907 426905 427902 427901
      427900
 1.50 294847 295845 294844 293843 292842 291843 290844 289845
      290847 292848 294847 294847

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 281627
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 1627Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW MPZ 25 WNW CNC 15 NW ADU 10 SSW SPW 10 SW FRM AUM
15 SSE LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 10 SSW MPZ.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 471 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 281627
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 1627Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW MPZ 25 WNW CNC 15 NW ADU 10 SSW SPW 10 SW FRM AUM
15 SSE LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 10 SSW MPZ.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCS THAT ROLLED
THROUGH IA THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION # 471 FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 281413
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 28 2015 - 12Z SAT AUG 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE MLI 25 WNW GBG 15 SSW FFL CNC 15 ESE AMW 20 NNW MIW
20 ESE CCY 30 S LSE 20 NW DLL 10 E RYV RAC 10 WNW PWK 30 SSW SQI
20 SSE MLI.


...MID MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MCS THAT AFFECTED NE/IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
WEAKENED AS THE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
IA/SOUTHERN WI.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE (IN
THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IS
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST JET INTO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL/SOUTHERN WI AFTER
28/21Z. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 29/00Z AND
29/06Z...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER SOUTH
VERSUS FURTHER NORTH...FOLLOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FAVORING THE SOUTHERN POSITION HAS BEEN THE
BIAS THIS WARM SEASON...AND THIS BIAS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST. THE MORE SOUTHERN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (SUCH AS THE
00Z NSSL WRF/06Z REGIONAL GEM) INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL 2
OR 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...SO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES.

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA WAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...COVERING
MUCH OF EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...IF THE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE EXCESSIVE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED THIS AFTERNOON

HAYES/ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 280944
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF CURRENT
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE PREVIOUS TIMING WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY
1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE 500-MB
HEIGHTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 3 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE SHOWING
THE TREMENDOUS STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION
WILL AFFECTED BY A PAIR OF MOISTURE SURGES...EACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 850-MB FLOW IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WA CASCADES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN RELOADS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCELERATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRAVERSING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...IN SPITE OF SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT. GIVEN THEIR
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...INCORPORATED THESE SOLUTIONS HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WAS
TEMPTED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WA CASCADES BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE BELIEF IT WOULD BE MORE OF A
LONG DURATION FLOOD ISSUE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS EXPECT THE FLOW TO
RELAX AS THE IMPULSE FLATTENS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TENDED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FORECASTER...IT WAS BELIEVED THE 12Z ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORTING A QUICKER TREND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM.
THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP AS IT SIGNIFICANTLY WASHED OUT
THE WAVE LEADING TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMED UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN. THUS...THIS FORECAST WAS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY THE 00Z
NAM INFLUENCES.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

BY FAR THE MOST UNCERTAIN SECTOR OF THE MAP...THIS AREA IS PRIMED
TO BE AFFECTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER TN
VALLEY/ADJACENT LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL. BEGINNING TO THE
NORTH...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES WOBBLING ABOUT THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE DEFINITELY LIKELY GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TENDED TO LEAN ON A COMBINATION OF THE
18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS THEIR SLOWER SOLUTIONS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOT TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY WASHED OUT THE
SIGNAL A BIT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AT HAND...FELT
THIS WAS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

OF COURSE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE 03Z FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOST SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN COMBINATION. HOWEVER...WITH A TREND IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OBEYED SOMETHING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM. THE FINAL QPF PRODUCT FOLLOWED SUIT
ADJUSTING AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARISING
FORM THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO MUCH OF FL. DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND UP ALONG THE MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE METRO
AREAS. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH...TROPICAL RAINFALL
RATES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVE FROM THE
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
GIVEN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FLUXES. THE OVERALL SIGNAL WAS
CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ORGANIZATION NOT BEING GREAT SITTING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE. THE GRAPHIC WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMBINATION
OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF GIVEN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 523264 521256 518246 513233 510229 508224 505216 503212
      503208 505205 508204 514209 519215 524220 529224 532222
      534218 536209 539198 536190 519164 515160 512157 509156
      505158 503160 500172 498175 497182 495186 492188 486192
      483197 477201 470204 466204 464208 463211 460213 453214
      446216 439216 433216 425217 421222 419226 416224 415219
      412214 407214 399210 395210 395211 397217 401219 403223
      400227 396228 388228 382232 381235 382239 384247 375255
      365266 363270 361275 360282 362284 364287 368288 376289
      391294 408300 419304 428307 435307 442304 445298 448290
      455273 454267 455259 455256 457255 461254 467254 472256
      475258 485267 491273 495278 503285 506288 509287 514285
      518277
 0.01 520952 520923 520890 519865 517854 516841 515835 514826
      513810 510775 506767 501760 496754 495753 492756 487765
      486770 486776 487790 487805 485825 485832 483831 482827
      479823 472819 469818 463819 457824 457834 458849 459851
      459856 455852 448848 443847 441846 441841 439831 438825
      436822 432821 429823 426828 424833 422839 418846 414852
      410860 406866 403875 399886 395894 391903 385911 380919
      373924 366927 359931 355934 352938 348945 344952 340957
      333970 333982 336985 340987 342988 342991 340997 335004
      329010 326015 323018 319027 313034 311036 308038 306042
      305047 305054 303061 299069 296070 292070 286071 275071
      271070 268068 259063 250057 241054 237053 234056 234063
      240069 244075 252079 257082 261084 263088 268095 271099
      275102 279107 283112 288116 294119 298118 300115 306108
      315105 319106 321108 331114 342116 347116 346112 343103
      330069 332061 339059 344059 349060 353066 357069 362070
      368071 370075 373078 377080 379079 382079 387079 395078
      403074 410071 412067 412061 409056 406053 400053 378050
      370046 367044 366040 362036 359028 358023 358018 361006
      367999 368996 371995 375994 384990 387988 389986 393977
      398970 402963 409956 413955 419955 422959 423966 424969
      424975 428980 433983 438978 442969 444960 448934 450923
      454915 461891 463890 464896 463908 465920 465929 465937
      464947 463957 463964 465968 468975 480984 484983 486984
      487988 487996 488000 492998 494995 498985 501981 506981
      511981 514978 517965 520952
 0.01 385806 384801 383800 379800 375801 371805 367808 364813
      361816 358821 354824 351828 349831 348838 350842 354840
      357837 360832 365825 372816 380812 385806
 0.01 361729 359713 356710 353708 347710 344715 341720 339724
      334734 328741 322749 313757 308766 306770 303773 297776
      290778 287778 284777 279777 266779 258784 249789 240797
      236806 236810 236817 241829 246839 249842 253844 262846
      265847 267850 271855 277861 284869 288871 293871 301870
      306868 311870 314873 318872 323868 325865 326860 328854
      327847 327842 328838 326833 322822 326813 336793 338788
      340783 340776 342772 355754 358748 360743 361729
 0.25 530208 530199 528192 525187 520183 515179 510178 510183
      512189 515195 519201 521206 526210 530208
 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513250 509238 498214 493211 487210
      477212 475215 476218 478219 485221 486223 486229 485230
      482230 477227 474220 466224 461228 456229 445232 435235
      431236 425235 419232 413232 402233 400234 398238 399243
      400246 405249 404253 394258 384265 377272 374276 377281
      390279 402287 411294 421299 426300 431297 441289 442282
      442273 440263 437256 442252 451247 462246 471246 477246
      483250 492260 495260 496255 494248 492241 493238 496239
      498241 501247 504252 507258 510265 514266
 0.25 500914 501904 500895 499886 498883 495882 490881 485882
      482879 478879 477882 475889 475897 474907 474917 476937
      476944 477952 479954 482955 488954 492950 495944 499931
      500922 500914
 0.25 448887 448876 446869 443863 440861 438858 436855 431856
      427859 419872 405894 400906 393919 380943 370950 365954
      370955 374954 377957 378959 381960 385963 391959 400952
      405948 412945 418945 423946 429947 433947 436945 440939
      442934 445916 447901 448887
 0.25 322801 321799 318798 312798 303798 297797 284797 283798
      281802 282807 257802 252806 250807 250810 250816 254821
      256827 260830 271834 277839 279844 286854 292856 298857
      302856 304853 303846 297835 293831 286830 280832 275830
      276826 280826 289826 293826 296824 297819 312819 316815
      319811 322801
 0.25 275797 273795 271794 270795 269796 268798 267800 268800
      270800 272800 274799 275797 275797
 0.50 510257 509249 508243 507240 505237 502232 499226 496221
      495220 493225 495231 497237 502242 505247 507253 508256
      510257
 0.50 496919 495909 493904 491901 487896 480892 478902 479905
      480912 479922 479932 480938 482942 488942 492936 495927
      496919
 0.50 461240 462236 460235 457234 455234 452235 450236 448237
      446241 448244 452244 454243 457243 459242 461240
 0.50 436287 438283 437280 436277 432266 431263 426260 417260
      410261 405261 401263 399267 399272 404280 411287 418292
      421295 427295 429294 433290 436287
 0.50 431246 430243 429240 426239 423238 419236 416235 414237
      413240 413243 416246 418247 421249 425249 426249 430248
      431246
 0.50 443906 444893 443886 442880 438871 435868 431865 428867
      425871 420879 411895 407902 403912 396929 396938 396944
      400946 408943 411942 417941 425943 430942 435940 439934
      441921 443906
 0.50 298845 297840 296838 293837 292836 288835 286834 282835
      282838 283842 284844 287846 289846 291847 294848 296847
      298845
 1.00 438909 438900 438890 436884 432880 427878 423882 418893
      412905 408918 407923 406933 406938 408939 416938 422939
      428937 433934 436928 437921 438911 438909
 1.50 434909 435902 434896 432891 429889 427888 423892 419900
      416910 412919 410929 410935 414936 419936 424935 430930
      432926 433921 434909
 2.00 429919 430909 431905 430900 427898 424899 420903 418910
      415917 414924 413931 414933 417933 423932 426928 429921
      429919
 3.00 422919 421917 419918 418919 419921 421920 422919

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 524260 523248 519240 518237 518232 520230 523233 527235
      529236 534225 537211 541198 542190 542183 537175 531168
      526164 523161 520157 512150 509148 504146 500144 495143
      483129 481126 478126 474133 469137 464135 464130 466125
      467120 462117 457111 443104 441103 438105 432108 427109
      423111 421111 419113 415117 404116 406124 412130 415134
      416139 419145 423141 426134 429131 436124 439122 441121
      442124 443129 443133 441135 438138 437141 441149 451152
      449160 450172 452176 455178 457177 459180 461179 463174
      464170 467169 481173 484180 483186 480188 476192 474196
      470199 466202 458202 450206 421212 417213 412213 400211
      396212 394217 391220 390227 393235 399241 402243 406246
      404252 418268 421270 426271 434267 434273 436278 439286
      446290 450292 453291 456290 459293 465301 469305 475307
      479308 483307 494305 501305 507305
 0.01 485154 486151 485149 485147 483146 483145 482144 480145
      479147 479150 481153 482154 484155 485154
 0.01 491838 490818 488812 484806 481800 477797 470793 463794
      459795 456792 454785 451778 451770 449758 447756 444756
      442755 438755 435756 432758 424767 418777 416784 412790
      406805 405812 404820 403827 403834 402843 399853 398861
      401869 390890 387897 382903 378907 373913 364920 355927
      351930 344933 341934 338938 337945 341960 343963 345965
      348965 355963 359963 363961 366956 369955 373955 381954
      386951 388947 390940 389929 389926 391922 394918 400913
      408904 412902 417903 425902 430900 436895 441892 447887
      452884 456882 463881 465878 469878 471875 475874 479870
      482864 486858 488852 491838
 0.01 455147 456145 456142 455140 453142 452144 452146 454149
      455147
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 387113 382115 379119
      375125 375130 378128 383129 386125 390118 394115 398113
      405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 377803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 389806 392801 394798
 0.01 395057 395055 393056 389059 385061 383058 381050 379048
      375047 368046 365048 362048 358048 356050 352053 347055
      344054 340049 336043 324043 313039 310036 306032 305030
      303032 302034 304038 306040 307044 307050 305053 301057
      296060 287064 277068 274069 270070 262069 258071 256073
      255077 258086 260089 264090 271092 275095 277102 286108
      289110 292115 297120 302122 309124 315127 325133 329133
      331129 331125 332123 335121 339122 341124 342127 349130
      352124 357123 366125 368124 369120 366116 352110 349105
      349099 350099 355102 357102 360100 362098 364099 366103
      370104 372102 373098 373093 371091 368088 366083 371083
      375084 381081 387070 395057
 0.01 219745 214749 211756 207766 211774 213783 216791 221798
      226802 229809 231816 235821 249828 244841 242844 243850
      245857 253865 263865 267867 270870 274874 277877 281878
      284879 289879 296883 300886 307887 317887 324890 333890
      337889 340885 345881 347882 351879 355879 357877 363876
      367870 369862 371858 369854 368849 366845 364834 360827
      359821 352818 344817 336813 331809 330805 331800 337786
      343775 352761 356755 362749 367743 371737 377726 378718
      376707 371700 368698 363697 358698 349701 338708 332714
      328719 317731 314734 313739 312741 307743 300745 293744
      286743 278740 272737 264734 258731 255733 248733 242735
 0.01 340065 339064 337063 335063 333063 332063 330064 328066
      330068 331068 333068 335068 337068 338067 339067 340065
 0.25 521272 513229 514221 516218 522218 528220 532216 534211
      535207 536199 537194 537187 531178 525172 520166 514162
      512166 508167 504169 499169 496171 495176 494181 494185
      493191 491197 484201 472207 464209 456213 443218 440221
      439228 437232 434237 428242 428247 429250 433254 436256
      441255 446257 452264 458269 464276 469283 475289 479291
      483292 487291 491292 502297 508294 514288
 0.25 448846 449838 448832 446827 444822 437801 434798 432794
      430790 424789 420797 416807 415817 414823 414830 415837
      416841 417848 416854 411875 410880 411883 414887 419886
      426882 433876 437870 443861 446853 448846
 0.25 371722 371717 370712 366705 360703 352707 346710 339716
      334719 329725 324730 320736 317742 317753 319761 322764
      325766 328767 332766 337762 349752 354748 359741 362736
      367730 371722
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 380070 380069 379067 378065 377065
      376064 375064 373064 371064 371065 371066 373067 374068
      374070 375071 375073 375075 376077 377078 379076 380076
 0.25 363056 364054 363052 361052 359053 358054 357056 357057
      359058 361057 363056 363056
 0.25 361067 362065 361063 359063 358065 359067 360067 361067
 0.25 352855 352851 351848 349846 341838 337830 331824 325817
      321814 315813 308819 302825 293830 286830 280831 276832
      272834 270840 273845 278851 280856 282862 288868 297871
      303871 308870 312869 317870 326872 331872 337871 344867
      350859 352855
 0.25 341098 340093 339091 338089 337085 336083 334082 332079
      329077 327079 325083 326085 329088 331090 333091 335095
      336097 338098 341098
 0.25 336056 336055 334055 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057
      328058 330058 332058 334058 336057 336056
 0.25 331105 330101 328099 322093 319089 315086 312086 309086
      307084 302078 297074 289072 282072 276077 272081 272085
      274087 284097 289101 297104 303107 311111 315115 320115
      319112 320108 322106 329107 331105
 0.25 259764 259756 257752 255749 246742 240740 236740 232741
      226744 222748 218753 214759 214765 216773 218779 222786
      225790 228792 232792 240790 249790 253789 256787 258781
      258774 259766 259764
 0.50 531208 532201 531194 528188 526186 527182 525178 521175
      515177 510176 507177 504181 503189 505192 510195 514197
      515202 517206 521209 527212 531208
 0.50 518273 519268 518265 517259 513243 511230 509222 505216
      505209 503204 500201 496202 490203 481206 476207 471210
      462213 456216 451217 447220 444225 445230 445234 442237
      436246 439251 444248 450247 453251 457257 462260 469269
      475273 481277 490284 496288 503290 507287 511283 515280
      518273
 0.50 443849 443840 441832 438826 436820 428810 424808 421813
      422817 421825 421833 422844 422852 421860 420867 420872
      421875 428875 433871 439861 441856 443849
 0.50 367721 368716 367713 363708 359708 357709 351712 346715
      341720 337722 333726 325734 322740 322747 325753 327755
      331754 343749 348747 353742 359733 362728 366723 367721
 0.50 331081 330080 329081 328081 328082 330082 331081
 0.50 331852 329846 326842 324836 322829 319828 315829 311833
      308839 307846 311850 313852 315856 318859 324857 329854
      331852
 0.50 303087 303084 301082 299080 296078 293077 292077 289078
      286078 284080 283084 284087 286086 288085 292085 295085
      297086 301087 303087
 0.50 300846 300842 298840 295838 293837 292836 288836 286838
      285841 285844 286846 289847 290848 294849 296849 299849
      300846
 0.50 253773 252767 250761 249755 246750 243746 240743 235742
      230744 222751 217758 217765 219772 224781 226783 232785
      237784 242782 248781 252777 253773
 1.00 514272 516268 516265 515260 513249 507229 503220 498211
      495209 491209 482210 475212 468215 461218 458222 459227
      461230 461236 465246 471251 479257 486263 491271 497278
      501281 504278 506272 508270 512273 514272
 1.00 491240 491234 488230 485227 482224 478220 474223 470225
      472227 477228 480231 482236 487238 490240 491240
 1.00 436854 436847 435842 431838 428837 426841 426848 425853
      427857 427864 427867 430868 432864 434860 436856 436854
 1.00 347734 346732 344730 341731 337731 335732 332735 332737
      333739 335741 339741 342740 344739 346736 347734
 1.00 247772 247767 245764 242757 240749 237746 232747 226751
      222756 221759 221764 224771 227777 230779 235780 240779
      246774 247772
 1.50 514266 514261 511255 508242 504231 500220 497216 492212
      487212 483216 483220 487225 490228 493233 498245 504254
      509262 511266 514266
 1.50 499266 497255 493246 490242 487240 484241 480239 478234
      475231 471233 469236 469240 471244 475247 479249 483252
      485256 491263 494267 497268 499266
 1.50 244773 243767 242763 239758 238753 235750 231753 226755
      224757 224763 225769 227773 231776 234777 240776 243773
      244773
 2.00 507251 507243 505236 502231 499224 497219 492215 489214
      486215 485219 488223 492227 495233 497239 500244 504249
      507251
 2.00 491253 491250 491249 490247 489246 488244 487244 486243
      485245 486247 487249 489252 490254 491253
 2.00 479244 479241 479238 478235 477235 476233 474234 473234
      472236 472237 472239 473240 475242 476243 478244 479244
 2.00 241769 240767 240765 240763 238759 236758 234757 230756
      228756 226757 225761 227765 228767 230770 232771 234772
      238772 239771 241769

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 205774 212789 214798 213804 213812 214820 217834 222839
      226843 232847 243846 246847 249851 253857 258860 266864
      272869 274873 274877 274884 272886 271892 267901 260911
      257917 254926 253929 254932 254937 250939 248941 248946
      249955 255960 262964 265966 269968 275972 281973 286969
      289965 292960 297948 300942 301932 302921 303916 304912
      307905 312900 318894 324887 328882 330879 334880 347884
      352883 358883 370887 377891 385893 387895 392895 401894
      413885 421874 424869 425866 428858 429855 429850 430841
      430832 431825 434819 436811 439794 440782 441772 440766
      441762 440750 439743 437738 440733 443730 448725 450721
      453719 458714 462716 462720 465727 467729 469729 472728
      473725 476719 477714 477710 479701 482696 485692 491685
      493676 494672 493666 495658 496655 494650 491639 490636
      487634 481632 476631 464635 453643 450652 447661 444668
      442677 437694 433701 427706 419709 416711 414709 415706
      416699 416696 412696 398700 394712 393718 392727 392738
      394748 396753 396759 398762 397768 397773 395777 388784
      377794 365801 358802 353801 338803 333799 330794 328773
      327770 323767 317763 310760 306756 305750 299733 290725
      280723 264726 258728 250732 237739 210757 206759 206763
      205774
 0.01 524262 526246 530234 533228 537218 538211 538206 538202
      538191 537184 534179 531174 528168 524163 514153 498143
      492139 488134 478127 473138 475141 478140 481141 481145
      478146 475146 471145 468142 463141 456145 451157 454161
      453169 451171 451176 452178 455178 458184 461188 463191
      467192 472191 477194 478200 475205 470208 458212 452213
      446212 440211 437211 436213 430224 426231 420233 414235
      411240 411247 414248 421246 426245 434247 441247 443245
      447248 450252 453255 459257 463259 467259 467263 468273
      470280 473287 475293 479303 490312 499311 506303 510297
      513292
 0.01 521229 522226 522224 522221 521220 521218 520216 520215
      519214 517213 516212 514213 514214 513215 512218 513221
      513222 514223 515224 516226 517227 517228 519229 520230
      521229
 0.01 501201 502199 501197 499197 498196 496196 495197 494199
      495202 495203 497203 498204 499204 500203 501201
 0.01 481097 481088 480084 475074 469072 466070 461070 458074
      454078 451074 447070 442067 439068 437072 437082 435088
      427092 423107 421111 421115 422119 424120 429120 433116
      434114 436118 434123 435126 435131 439139 444140 448136
      448132 450128 454124 458123 461117 464115 473108 477104
      481097
 0.01 446048 446038 444036 441035 438035 436038 433042 406050
      399046 395043 385046 378043 371045 365047 361048 357047
      352049 348050 345049 340047 333046 327044 324044 322048
      323065 320072 315076 311077 305076 297073 292069 277065
      264058 254053 247051 238052 234053 233055 232065 232073
      237077 244085 257093 261097 265103 269108 275111 280113
      285117 298123 305125 310127 313125 325121 332121 335122
      338124 344129 349130 356127 359126 363124 371115 375111
      380109 386106 392102 397097 401091 410081 413076 417072
      425059 432059 436057 439057 446048
 0.25 534209 533190 530183 527177 523172 519167 514166 508163
      504162 502163 496164 493166 491168 490172 490176 493181
      499186 511194 518204 527216 532214 534209
 0.25 520266 521260 521253 520245 519240 513232 508222 504215
      500210 496207 488207 483207 479208 475212 473216 472222
      473226 471230 468232 465236 463241 464246 467249 471252
      474256 480277 484286 492294 497297 501296 508291 512286
      513282 518271 520266
 0.25 418792 416784 413779 410779 406780 403785 398791 394791
      390791 387794 383800 374817 369815 365811 362809 360810
      353814 347823 342829 337834 331837 327840 325843 325847
      329852 334855 340855 349853 354850 359845 362840 364833
      366829 369828 375828 378824 390824 394825 398824 403825
      410827 412825 414821 416815 417809 418792
 0.25 401058 400056 398056 397056 395055 393055 392057 393059
      393060 394062 395062 396062 398061 400060 400059 401058
 0.25 392080 393078 393075 393073 392072 391073 390073 389075
      388077 387079 388082 390082 391081 392080
 0.25 385072 384070 382067 380066 378068 377071 376073 374076
      374080 375082 377082 379082 382081 384079 385074 385072
 0.25 354086 355081 354075 349077 341078 335078 332076 329077
      327082 329085 331092 332101 334104 339106 343106 345102
      347094 352088 354086
 0.25 327102 325097 323095 317086 299081 294081 292083 291088
      293092 297100 294098 289091 286087 282086 274086 266082
      261081 259085 262090 264092 270098 278102 284108 292113
      299116 304117 308115 312108 316105 321104 324104 327102
 0.25 305806 304796 302789 298773 296764 293759 285747 281743
      277740 270737 264736 256737 249738 242741 236745 229753
      218762 215768 215773 216783 218790 221806 223814 226819
      230824 234827 241830 247831 259830 268830 276829 280828
      282825 285820 297813 301810 305806
 0.25 283941 283933 282927 281923 279921 274924 270927 267933
      266939 268945 271949 276952 281950 283943 283941
 0.50 531208 532200 530194 529188 526183 524178 520175 516175
      512173 509169 506167 503167 499169 496174 496178 498179
      503182 506185 512188 518196 520202 523205 526209 529210
      531208 531208
 0.50 519265 519259 518254 517245 515240 505219 499211 494209
      489210 480210 478212 477216 479221 488226 494238 495241
      493241 490239 486235 481235 477231 474233 470237 469244
      476251 478257 480264 490283 494287 499289 504289 509287
      511282 513276 519265
 0.50 316093 315090 313088 312087 310087 308086 306086 304086
      303086 301085 299086 299088 300091 302092 303093 304093
      305094 307094 309094 311094 313093 315093 316093
 0.50 294797 293789 291785 289772 288766 285762 279753 271748
      265746 260746 253746 248747 237751 230758 222766 219771
      219776 221790 223803 225811 228815 237819 241821 248822
      257822 261820 262816 264811 269808 272808 279808 285807
      291803 294797
 0.50 282099 282097 281096 280094 278094 276094 276095 277096
      278097 279098 281099 282099
 1.00 516264 515251 510238 505229 502222 499216 494214 491215
      485215 484220 486221 489222 491225 492230 495236 498242
      501246 504251 505258 505263 503262 490242 486240 483242
      476234 473239 474242 481245 483252 488262 494273 501282
      505284 508280 508274 511272 516264
 1.00 284787 283782 281779 275774 261768 246766 239763 236762
      233763 228768 224771 223775 224783 226793 228803 229807
      232810 247815 253813 259807 274801 280796 284789 284787
 1.50 512263 513258 512252 510246 506237 502231 499223 498220
      493218 491223 492227 496236 500242 504248 507256 508261
      510263 512263
 1.50 505279 504272 502266 499261 495254 492249 490244 487243
      485246 486254 489260 492265 496270 499274 503279 505279
 1.50 275787 270785 264781 259780 254779 251778 243771 238767
      234767 231768 227773 226781 230797 233802 238806 243809
      249811 259804 265802 270800 271797 275787
 2.00 510257 510254 509251 508248 507248 507250 507251 508253
      508255 509257 510257 510257
 2.00 501272 502269 500267 498263 496259 493254 492250 488248
      487251 489257 491260 493265 496268 500272 501272
 2.00 504241 504238 503236 500232 499229 498227 497224 495221
      493225 494229 495232 496234 498237 500240 502241 504241
 2.00 269796 267790 263787 255783 247778 239771 236769 234770
      232772 229781 231792 233798 237801 240804 244807 249808
      254805 264800 267798 269796
 3.00 263796 262793 260790 252789 247784 242780 240779 235780
      234788 241791 244792 243795 242798 243801 248804 254802
      261798 263796

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 280944
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF CURRENT
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE PREVIOUS TIMING WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY
1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE 500-MB
HEIGHTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 3 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE SHOWING
THE TREMENDOUS STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION
WILL AFFECTED BY A PAIR OF MOISTURE SURGES...EACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 850-MB FLOW IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WA CASCADES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN RELOADS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCELERATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRAVERSING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...IN SPITE OF SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT. GIVEN THEIR
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...INCORPORATED THESE SOLUTIONS HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WAS
TEMPTED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WA CASCADES BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE BELIEF IT WOULD BE MORE OF A
LONG DURATION FLOOD ISSUE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS EXPECT THE FLOW TO
RELAX AS THE IMPULSE FLATTENS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TENDED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FORECASTER...IT WAS BELIEVED THE 12Z ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORTING A QUICKER TREND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM.
THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP AS IT SIGNIFICANTLY WASHED OUT
THE WAVE LEADING TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMED UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN. THUS...THIS FORECAST WAS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY THE 00Z
NAM INFLUENCES.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

BY FAR THE MOST UNCERTAIN SECTOR OF THE MAP...THIS AREA IS PRIMED
TO BE AFFECTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER TN
VALLEY/ADJACENT LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL. BEGINNING TO THE
NORTH...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES WOBBLING ABOUT THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE DEFINITELY LIKELY GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TENDED TO LEAN ON A COMBINATION OF THE
18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS THEIR SLOWER SOLUTIONS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOT TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY WASHED OUT THE
SIGNAL A BIT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AT HAND...FELT
THIS WAS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

OF COURSE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE 03Z FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOST SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN COMBINATION. HOWEVER...WITH A TREND IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OBEYED SOMETHING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM. THE FINAL QPF PRODUCT FOLLOWED SUIT
ADJUSTING AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARISING
FORM THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO MUCH OF FL. DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND UP ALONG THE MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE METRO
AREAS. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH...TROPICAL RAINFALL
RATES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVE FROM THE
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
GIVEN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FLUXES. THE OVERALL SIGNAL WAS
CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ORGANIZATION NOT BEING GREAT SITTING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE. THE GRAPHIC WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMBINATION
OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF GIVEN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 523264 521256 518246 513233 510229 508224 505216 503212
      503208 505205 508204 514209 519215 524220 529224 532222
      534218 536209 539198 536190 519164 515160 512157 509156
      505158 503160 500172 498175 497182 495186 492188 486192
      483197 477201 470204 466204 464208 463211 460213 453214
      446216 439216 433216 425217 421222 419226 416224 415219
      412214 407214 399210 395210 395211 397217 401219 403223
      400227 396228 388228 382232 381235 382239 384247 375255
      365266 363270 361275 360282 362284 364287 368288 376289
      391294 408300 419304 428307 435307 442304 445298 448290
      455273 454267 455259 455256 457255 461254 467254 472256
      475258 485267 491273 495278 503285 506288 509287 514285
      518277
 0.01 520952 520923 520890 519865 517854 516841 515835 514826
      513810 510775 506767 501760 496754 495753 492756 487765
      486770 486776 487790 487805 485825 485832 483831 482827
      479823 472819 469818 463819 457824 457834 458849 459851
      459856 455852 448848 443847 441846 441841 439831 438825
      436822 432821 429823 426828 424833 422839 418846 414852
      410860 406866 403875 399886 395894 391903 385911 380919
      373924 366927 359931 355934 352938 348945 344952 340957
      333970 333982 336985 340987 342988 342991 340997 335004
      329010 326015 323018 319027 313034 311036 308038 306042
      305047 305054 303061 299069 296070 292070 286071 275071
      271070 268068 259063 250057 241054 237053 234056 234063
      240069 244075 252079 257082 261084 263088 268095 271099
      275102 279107 283112 288116 294119 298118 300115 306108
      315105 319106 321108 331114 342116 347116 346112 343103
      330069 332061 339059 344059 349060 353066 357069 362070
      368071 370075 373078 377080 379079 382079 387079 395078
      403074 410071 412067 412061 409056 406053 400053 378050
      370046 367044 366040 362036 359028 358023 358018 361006
      367999 368996 371995 375994 384990 387988 389986 393977
      398970 402963 409956 413955 419955 422959 423966 424969
      424975 428980 433983 438978 442969 444960 448934 450923
      454915 461891 463890 464896 463908 465920 465929 465937
      464947 463957 463964 465968 468975 480984 484983 486984
      487988 487996 488000 492998 494995 498985 501981 506981
      511981 514978 517965 520952
 0.01 385806 384801 383800 379800 375801 371805 367808 364813
      361816 358821 354824 351828 349831 348838 350842 354840
      357837 360832 365825 372816 380812 385806
 0.01 361729 359713 356710 353708 347710 344715 341720 339724
      334734 328741 322749 313757 308766 306770 303773 297776
      290778 287778 284777 279777 266779 258784 249789 240797
      236806 236810 236817 241829 246839 249842 253844 262846
      265847 267850 271855 277861 284869 288871 293871 301870
      306868 311870 314873 318872 323868 325865 326860 328854
      327847 327842 328838 326833 322822 326813 336793 338788
      340783 340776 342772 355754 358748 360743 361729
 0.25 530208 530199 528192 525187 520183 515179 510178 510183
      512189 515195 519201 521206 526210 530208
 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513250 509238 498214 493211 487210
      477212 475215 476218 478219 485221 486223 486229 485230
      482230 477227 474220 466224 461228 456229 445232 435235
      431236 425235 419232 413232 402233 400234 398238 399243
      400246 405249 404253 394258 384265 377272 374276 377281
      390279 402287 411294 421299 426300 431297 441289 442282
      442273 440263 437256 442252 451247 462246 471246 477246
      483250 492260 495260 496255 494248 492241 493238 496239
      498241 501247 504252 507258 510265 514266
 0.25 500914 501904 500895 499886 498883 495882 490881 485882
      482879 478879 477882 475889 475897 474907 474917 476937
      476944 477952 479954 482955 488954 492950 495944 499931
      500922 500914
 0.25 448887 448876 446869 443863 440861 438858 436855 431856
      427859 419872 405894 400906 393919 380943 370950 365954
      370955 374954 377957 378959 381960 385963 391959 400952
      405948 412945 418945 423946 429947 433947 436945 440939
      442934 445916 447901 448887
 0.25 322801 321799 318798 312798 303798 297797 284797 283798
      281802 282807 257802 252806 250807 250810 250816 254821
      256827 260830 271834 277839 279844 286854 292856 298857
      302856 304853 303846 297835 293831 286830 280832 275830
      276826 280826 289826 293826 296824 297819 312819 316815
      319811 322801
 0.25 275797 273795 271794 270795 269796 268798 267800 268800
      270800 272800 274799 275797 275797
 0.50 510257 509249 508243 507240 505237 502232 499226 496221
      495220 493225 495231 497237 502242 505247 507253 508256
      510257
 0.50 496919 495909 493904 491901 487896 480892 478902 479905
      480912 479922 479932 480938 482942 488942 492936 495927
      496919
 0.50 461240 462236 460235 457234 455234 452235 450236 448237
      446241 448244 452244 454243 457243 459242 461240
 0.50 436287 438283 437280 436277 432266 431263 426260 417260
      410261 405261 401263 399267 399272 404280 411287 418292
      421295 427295 429294 433290 436287
 0.50 431246 430243 429240 426239 423238 419236 416235 414237
      413240 413243 416246 418247 421249 425249 426249 430248
      431246
 0.50 443906 444893 443886 442880 438871 435868 431865 428867
      425871 420879 411895 407902 403912 396929 396938 396944
      400946 408943 411942 417941 425943 430942 435940 439934
      441921 443906
 0.50 298845 297840 296838 293837 292836 288835 286834 282835
      282838 283842 284844 287846 289846 291847 294848 296847
      298845
 1.00 438909 438900 438890 436884 432880 427878 423882 418893
      412905 408918 407923 406933 406938 408939 416938 422939
      428937 433934 436928 437921 438911 438909
 1.50 434909 435902 434896 432891 429889 427888 423892 419900
      416910 412919 410929 410935 414936 419936 424935 430930
      432926 433921 434909
 2.00 429919 430909 431905 430900 427898 424899 420903 418910
      415917 414924 413931 414933 417933 423932 426928 429921
      429919
 3.00 422919 421917 419918 418919 419921 421920 422919

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 524260 523248 519240 518237 518232 520230 523233 527235
      529236 534225 537211 541198 542190 542183 537175 531168
      526164 523161 520157 512150 509148 504146 500144 495143
      483129 481126 478126 474133 469137 464135 464130 466125
      467120 462117 457111 443104 441103 438105 432108 427109
      423111 421111 419113 415117 404116 406124 412130 415134
      416139 419145 423141 426134 429131 436124 439122 441121
      442124 443129 443133 441135 438138 437141 441149 451152
      449160 450172 452176 455178 457177 459180 461179 463174
      464170 467169 481173 484180 483186 480188 476192 474196
      470199 466202 458202 450206 421212 417213 412213 400211
      396212 394217 391220 390227 393235 399241 402243 406246
      404252 418268 421270 426271 434267 434273 436278 439286
      446290 450292 453291 456290 459293 465301 469305 475307
      479308 483307 494305 501305 507305
 0.01 485154 486151 485149 485147 483146 483145 482144 480145
      479147 479150 481153 482154 484155 485154
 0.01 491838 490818 488812 484806 481800 477797 470793 463794
      459795 456792 454785 451778 451770 449758 447756 444756
      442755 438755 435756 432758 424767 418777 416784 412790
      406805 405812 404820 403827 403834 402843 399853 398861
      401869 390890 387897 382903 378907 373913 364920 355927
      351930 344933 341934 338938 337945 341960 343963 345965
      348965 355963 359963 363961 366956 369955 373955 381954
      386951 388947 390940 389929 389926 391922 394918 400913
      408904 412902 417903 425902 430900 436895 441892 447887
      452884 456882 463881 465878 469878 471875 475874 479870
      482864 486858 488852 491838
 0.01 455147 456145 456142 455140 453142 452144 452146 454149
      455147
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 387113 382115 379119
      375125 375130 378128 383129 386125 390118 394115 398113
      405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 377803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 389806 392801 394798
 0.01 395057 395055 393056 389059 385061 383058 381050 379048
      375047 368046 365048 362048 358048 356050 352053 347055
      344054 340049 336043 324043 313039 310036 306032 305030
      303032 302034 304038 306040 307044 307050 305053 301057
      296060 287064 277068 274069 270070 262069 258071 256073
      255077 258086 260089 264090 271092 275095 277102 286108
      289110 292115 297120 302122 309124 315127 325133 329133
      331129 331125 332123 335121 339122 341124 342127 349130
      352124 357123 366125 368124 369120 366116 352110 349105
      349099 350099 355102 357102 360100 362098 364099 366103
      370104 372102 373098 373093 371091 368088 366083 371083
      375084 381081 387070 395057
 0.01 219745 214749 211756 207766 211774 213783 216791 221798
      226802 229809 231816 235821 249828 244841 242844 243850
      245857 253865 263865 267867 270870 274874 277877 281878
      284879 289879 296883 300886 307887 317887 324890 333890
      337889 340885 345881 347882 351879 355879 357877 363876
      367870 369862 371858 369854 368849 366845 364834 360827
      359821 352818 344817 336813 331809 330805 331800 337786
      343775 352761 356755 362749 367743 371737 377726 378718
      376707 371700 368698 363697 358698 349701 338708 332714
      328719 317731 314734 313739 312741 307743 300745 293744
      286743 278740 272737 264734 258731 255733 248733 242735
 0.01 340065 339064 337063 335063 333063 332063 330064 328066
      330068 331068 333068 335068 337068 338067 339067 340065
 0.25 521272 513229 514221 516218 522218 528220 532216 534211
      535207 536199 537194 537187 531178 525172 520166 514162
      512166 508167 504169 499169 496171 495176 494181 494185
      493191 491197 484201 472207 464209 456213 443218 440221
      439228 437232 434237 428242 428247 429250 433254 436256
      441255 446257 452264 458269 464276 469283 475289 479291
      483292 487291 491292 502297 508294 514288
 0.25 448846 449838 448832 446827 444822 437801 434798 432794
      430790 424789 420797 416807 415817 414823 414830 415837
      416841 417848 416854 411875 410880 411883 414887 419886
      426882 433876 437870 443861 446853 448846
 0.25 371722 371717 370712 366705 360703 352707 346710 339716
      334719 329725 324730 320736 317742 317753 319761 322764
      325766 328767 332766 337762 349752 354748 359741 362736
      367730 371722
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 380070 380069 379067 378065 377065
      376064 375064 373064 371064 371065 371066 373067 374068
      374070 375071 375073 375075 376077 377078 379076 380076
 0.25 363056 364054 363052 361052 359053 358054 357056 357057
      359058 361057 363056 363056
 0.25 361067 362065 361063 359063 358065 359067 360067 361067
 0.25 352855 352851 351848 349846 341838 337830 331824 325817
      321814 315813 308819 302825 293830 286830 280831 276832
      272834 270840 273845 278851 280856 282862 288868 297871
      303871 308870 312869 317870 326872 331872 337871 344867
      350859 352855
 0.25 341098 340093 339091 338089 337085 336083 334082 332079
      329077 327079 325083 326085 329088 331090 333091 335095
      336097 338098 341098
 0.25 336056 336055 334055 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057
      328058 330058 332058 334058 336057 336056
 0.25 331105 330101 328099 322093 319089 315086 312086 309086
      307084 302078 297074 289072 282072 276077 272081 272085
      274087 284097 289101 297104 303107 311111 315115 320115
      319112 320108 322106 329107 331105
 0.25 259764 259756 257752 255749 246742 240740 236740 232741
      226744 222748 218753 214759 214765 216773 218779 222786
      225790 228792 232792 240790 249790 253789 256787 258781
      258774 259766 259764
 0.50 531208 532201 531194 528188 526186 527182 525178 521175
      515177 510176 507177 504181 503189 505192 510195 514197
      515202 517206 521209 527212 531208
 0.50 518273 519268 518265 517259 513243 511230 509222 505216
      505209 503204 500201 496202 490203 481206 476207 471210
      462213 456216 451217 447220 444225 445230 445234 442237
      436246 439251 444248 450247 453251 457257 462260 469269
      475273 481277 490284 496288 503290 507287 511283 515280
      518273
 0.50 443849 443840 441832 438826 436820 428810 424808 421813
      422817 421825 421833 422844 422852 421860 420867 420872
      421875 428875 433871 439861 441856 443849
 0.50 367721 368716 367713 363708 359708 357709 351712 346715
      341720 337722 333726 325734 322740 322747 325753 327755
      331754 343749 348747 353742 359733 362728 366723 367721
 0.50 331081 330080 329081 328081 328082 330082 331081
 0.50 331852 329846 326842 324836 322829 319828 315829 311833
      308839 307846 311850 313852 315856 318859 324857 329854
      331852
 0.50 303087 303084 301082 299080 296078 293077 292077 289078
      286078 284080 283084 284087 286086 288085 292085 295085
      297086 301087 303087
 0.50 300846 300842 298840 295838 293837 292836 288836 286838
      285841 285844 286846 289847 290848 294849 296849 299849
      300846
 0.50 253773 252767 250761 249755 246750 243746 240743 235742
      230744 222751 217758 217765 219772 224781 226783 232785
      237784 242782 248781 252777 253773
 1.00 514272 516268 516265 515260 513249 507229 503220 498211
      495209 491209 482210 475212 468215 461218 458222 459227
      461230 461236 465246 471251 479257 486263 491271 497278
      501281 504278 506272 508270 512273 514272
 1.00 491240 491234 488230 485227 482224 478220 474223 470225
      472227 477228 480231 482236 487238 490240 491240
 1.00 436854 436847 435842 431838 428837 426841 426848 425853
      427857 427864 427867 430868 432864 434860 436856 436854
 1.00 347734 346732 344730 341731 337731 335732 332735 332737
      333739 335741 339741 342740 344739 346736 347734
 1.00 247772 247767 245764 242757 240749 237746 232747 226751
      222756 221759 221764 224771 227777 230779 235780 240779
      246774 247772
 1.50 514266 514261 511255 508242 504231 500220 497216 492212
      487212 483216 483220 487225 490228 493233 498245 504254
      509262 511266 514266
 1.50 499266 497255 493246 490242 487240 484241 480239 478234
      475231 471233 469236 469240 471244 475247 479249 483252
      485256 491263 494267 497268 499266
 1.50 244773 243767 242763 239758 238753 235750 231753 226755
      224757 224763 225769 227773 231776 234777 240776 243773
      244773
 2.00 507251 507243 505236 502231 499224 497219 492215 489214
      486215 485219 488223 492227 495233 497239 500244 504249
      507251
 2.00 491253 491250 491249 490247 489246 488244 487244 486243
      485245 486247 487249 489252 490254 491253
 2.00 479244 479241 479238 478235 477235 476233 474234 473234
      472236 472237 472239 473240 475242 476243 478244 479244
 2.00 241769 240767 240765 240763 238759 236758 234757 230756
      228756 226757 225761 227765 228767 230770 232771 234772
      238772 239771 241769

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 205774 212789 214798 213804 213812 214820 217834 222839
      226843 232847 243846 246847 249851 253857 258860 266864
      272869 274873 274877 274884 272886 271892 267901 260911
      257917 254926 253929 254932 254937 250939 248941 248946
      249955 255960 262964 265966 269968 275972 281973 286969
      289965 292960 297948 300942 301932 302921 303916 304912
      307905 312900 318894 324887 328882 330879 334880 347884
      352883 358883 370887 377891 385893 387895 392895 401894
      413885 421874 424869 425866 428858 429855 429850 430841
      430832 431825 434819 436811 439794 440782 441772 440766
      441762 440750 439743 437738 440733 443730 448725 450721
      453719 458714 462716 462720 465727 467729 469729 472728
      473725 476719 477714 477710 479701 482696 485692 491685
      493676 494672 493666 495658 496655 494650 491639 490636
      487634 481632 476631 464635 453643 450652 447661 444668
      442677 437694 433701 427706 419709 416711 414709 415706
      416699 416696 412696 398700 394712 393718 392727 392738
      394748 396753 396759 398762 397768 397773 395777 388784
      377794 365801 358802 353801 338803 333799 330794 328773
      327770 323767 317763 310760 306756 305750 299733 290725
      280723 264726 258728 250732 237739 210757 206759 206763
      205774
 0.01 524262 526246 530234 533228 537218 538211 538206 538202
      538191 537184 534179 531174 528168 524163 514153 498143
      492139 488134 478127 473138 475141 478140 481141 481145
      478146 475146 471145 468142 463141 456145 451157 454161
      453169 451171 451176 452178 455178 458184 461188 463191
      467192 472191 477194 478200 475205 470208 458212 452213
      446212 440211 437211 436213 430224 426231 420233 414235
      411240 411247 414248 421246 426245 434247 441247 443245
      447248 450252 453255 459257 463259 467259 467263 468273
      470280 473287 475293 479303 490312 499311 506303 510297
      513292
 0.01 521229 522226 522224 522221 521220 521218 520216 520215
      519214 517213 516212 514213 514214 513215 512218 513221
      513222 514223 515224 516226 517227 517228 519229 520230
      521229
 0.01 501201 502199 501197 499197 498196 496196 495197 494199
      495202 495203 497203 498204 499204 500203 501201
 0.01 481097 481088 480084 475074 469072 466070 461070 458074
      454078 451074 447070 442067 439068 437072 437082 435088
      427092 423107 421111 421115 422119 424120 429120 433116
      434114 436118 434123 435126 435131 439139 444140 448136
      448132 450128 454124 458123 461117 464115 473108 477104
      481097
 0.01 446048 446038 444036 441035 438035 436038 433042 406050
      399046 395043 385046 378043 371045 365047 361048 357047
      352049 348050 345049 340047 333046 327044 324044 322048
      323065 320072 315076 311077 305076 297073 292069 277065
      264058 254053 247051 238052 234053 233055 232065 232073
      237077 244085 257093 261097 265103 269108 275111 280113
      285117 298123 305125 310127 313125 325121 332121 335122
      338124 344129 349130 356127 359126 363124 371115 375111
      380109 386106 392102 397097 401091 410081 413076 417072
      425059 432059 436057 439057 446048
 0.25 534209 533190 530183 527177 523172 519167 514166 508163
      504162 502163 496164 493166 491168 490172 490176 493181
      499186 511194 518204 527216 532214 534209
 0.25 520266 521260 521253 520245 519240 513232 508222 504215
      500210 496207 488207 483207 479208 475212 473216 472222
      473226 471230 468232 465236 463241 464246 467249 471252
      474256 480277 484286 492294 497297 501296 508291 512286
      513282 518271 520266
 0.25 418792 416784 413779 410779 406780 403785 398791 394791
      390791 387794 383800 374817 369815 365811 362809 360810
      353814 347823 342829 337834 331837 327840 325843 325847
      329852 334855 340855 349853 354850 359845 362840 364833
      366829 369828 375828 378824 390824 394825 398824 403825
      410827 412825 414821 416815 417809 418792
 0.25 401058 400056 398056 397056 395055 393055 392057 393059
      393060 394062 395062 396062 398061 400060 400059 401058
 0.25 392080 393078 393075 393073 392072 391073 390073 389075
      388077 387079 388082 390082 391081 392080
 0.25 385072 384070 382067 380066 378068 377071 376073 374076
      374080 375082 377082 379082 382081 384079 385074 385072
 0.25 354086 355081 354075 349077 341078 335078 332076 329077
      327082 329085 331092 332101 334104 339106 343106 345102
      347094 352088 354086
 0.25 327102 325097 323095 317086 299081 294081 292083 291088
      293092 297100 294098 289091 286087 282086 274086 266082
      261081 259085 262090 264092 270098 278102 284108 292113
      299116 304117 308115 312108 316105 321104 324104 327102
 0.25 305806 304796 302789 298773 296764 293759 285747 281743
      277740 270737 264736 256737 249738 242741 236745 229753
      218762 215768 215773 216783 218790 221806 223814 226819
      230824 234827 241830 247831 259830 268830 276829 280828
      282825 285820 297813 301810 305806
 0.25 283941 283933 282927 281923 279921 274924 270927 267933
      266939 268945 271949 276952 281950 283943 283941
 0.50 531208 532200 530194 529188 526183 524178 520175 516175
      512173 509169 506167 503167 499169 496174 496178 498179
      503182 506185 512188 518196 520202 523205 526209 529210
      531208 531208
 0.50 519265 519259 518254 517245 515240 505219 499211 494209
      489210 480210 478212 477216 479221 488226 494238 495241
      493241 490239 486235 481235 477231 474233 470237 469244
      476251 478257 480264 490283 494287 499289 504289 509287
      511282 513276 519265
 0.50 316093 315090 313088 312087 310087 308086 306086 304086
      303086 301085 299086 299088 300091 302092 303093 304093
      305094 307094 309094 311094 313093 315093 316093
 0.50 294797 293789 291785 289772 288766 285762 279753 271748
      265746 260746 253746 248747 237751 230758 222766 219771
      219776 221790 223803 225811 228815 237819 241821 248822
      257822 261820 262816 264811 269808 272808 279808 285807
      291803 294797
 0.50 282099 282097 281096 280094 278094 276094 276095 277096
      278097 279098 281099 282099
 1.00 516264 515251 510238 505229 502222 499216 494214 491215
      485215 484220 486221 489222 491225 492230 495236 498242
      501246 504251 505258 505263 503262 490242 486240 483242
      476234 473239 474242 481245 483252 488262 494273 501282
      505284 508280 508274 511272 516264
 1.00 284787 283782 281779 275774 261768 246766 239763 236762
      233763 228768 224771 223775 224783 226793 228803 229807
      232810 247815 253813 259807 274801 280796 284789 284787
 1.50 512263 513258 512252 510246 506237 502231 499223 498220
      493218 491223 492227 496236 500242 504248 507256 508261
      510263 512263
 1.50 505279 504272 502266 499261 495254 492249 490244 487243
      485246 486254 489260 492265 496270 499274 503279 505279
 1.50 275787 270785 264781 259780 254779 251778 243771 238767
      234767 231768 227773 226781 230797 233802 238806 243809
      249811 259804 265802 270800 271797 275787
 2.00 510257 510254 509251 508248 507248 507250 507251 508253
      508255 509257 510257 510257
 2.00 501272 502269 500267 498263 496259 493254 492250 488248
      487251 489257 491260 493265 496268 500272 501272
 2.00 504241 504238 503236 500232 499229 498227 497224 495221
      493225 494229 495232 496234 498237 500240 502241 504241
 2.00 269796 267790 263787 255783 247778 239771 236769 234770
      232772 229781 231792 233798 237801 240804 244807 249808
      254805 264800 267798 269796
 3.00 263796 262793 260790 252789 247784 242780 240779 235780
      234788 241791 244792 243795 242798 243801 248804 254802
      261798 263796

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 280944
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF CURRENT
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE PREVIOUS TIMING WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY
1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE 500-MB
HEIGHTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 3 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE SHOWING
THE TREMENDOUS STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION
WILL AFFECTED BY A PAIR OF MOISTURE SURGES...EACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 850-MB FLOW IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WA CASCADES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN RELOADS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCELERATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRAVERSING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...IN SPITE OF SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT. GIVEN THEIR
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...INCORPORATED THESE SOLUTIONS HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WAS
TEMPTED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WA CASCADES BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE BELIEF IT WOULD BE MORE OF A
LONG DURATION FLOOD ISSUE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS EXPECT THE FLOW TO
RELAX AS THE IMPULSE FLATTENS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TENDED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FORECASTER...IT WAS BELIEVED THE 12Z ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORTING A QUICKER TREND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM.
THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP AS IT SIGNIFICANTLY WASHED OUT
THE WAVE LEADING TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMED UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN. THUS...THIS FORECAST WAS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY THE 00Z
NAM INFLUENCES.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

BY FAR THE MOST UNCERTAIN SECTOR OF THE MAP...THIS AREA IS PRIMED
TO BE AFFECTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER TN
VALLEY/ADJACENT LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL. BEGINNING TO THE
NORTH...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES WOBBLING ABOUT THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE DEFINITELY LIKELY GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TENDED TO LEAN ON A COMBINATION OF THE
18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS THEIR SLOWER SOLUTIONS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOT TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY WASHED OUT THE
SIGNAL A BIT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AT HAND...FELT
THIS WAS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

OF COURSE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE 03Z FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOST SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN COMBINATION. HOWEVER...WITH A TREND IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OBEYED SOMETHING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM. THE FINAL QPF PRODUCT FOLLOWED SUIT
ADJUSTING AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARISING
FORM THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO MUCH OF FL. DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND UP ALONG THE MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE METRO
AREAS. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH...TROPICAL RAINFALL
RATES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVE FROM THE
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
GIVEN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FLUXES. THE OVERALL SIGNAL WAS
CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ORGANIZATION NOT BEING GREAT SITTING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE. THE GRAPHIC WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMBINATION
OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF GIVEN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 523264 521256 518246 513233 510229 508224 505216 503212
      503208 505205 508204 514209 519215 524220 529224 532222
      534218 536209 539198 536190 519164 515160 512157 509156
      505158 503160 500172 498175 497182 495186 492188 486192
      483197 477201 470204 466204 464208 463211 460213 453214
      446216 439216 433216 425217 421222 419226 416224 415219
      412214 407214 399210 395210 395211 397217 401219 403223
      400227 396228 388228 382232 381235 382239 384247 375255
      365266 363270 361275 360282 362284 364287 368288 376289
      391294 408300 419304 428307 435307 442304 445298 448290
      455273 454267 455259 455256 457255 461254 467254 472256
      475258 485267 491273 495278 503285 506288 509287 514285
      518277
 0.01 520952 520923 520890 519865 517854 516841 515835 514826
      513810 510775 506767 501760 496754 495753 492756 487765
      486770 486776 487790 487805 485825 485832 483831 482827
      479823 472819 469818 463819 457824 457834 458849 459851
      459856 455852 448848 443847 441846 441841 439831 438825
      436822 432821 429823 426828 424833 422839 418846 414852
      410860 406866 403875 399886 395894 391903 385911 380919
      373924 366927 359931 355934 352938 348945 344952 340957
      333970 333982 336985 340987 342988 342991 340997 335004
      329010 326015 323018 319027 313034 311036 308038 306042
      305047 305054 303061 299069 296070 292070 286071 275071
      271070 268068 259063 250057 241054 237053 234056 234063
      240069 244075 252079 257082 261084 263088 268095 271099
      275102 279107 283112 288116 294119 298118 300115 306108
      315105 319106 321108 331114 342116 347116 346112 343103
      330069 332061 339059 344059 349060 353066 357069 362070
      368071 370075 373078 377080 379079 382079 387079 395078
      403074 410071 412067 412061 409056 406053 400053 378050
      370046 367044 366040 362036 359028 358023 358018 361006
      367999 368996 371995 375994 384990 387988 389986 393977
      398970 402963 409956 413955 419955 422959 423966 424969
      424975 428980 433983 438978 442969 444960 448934 450923
      454915 461891 463890 464896 463908 465920 465929 465937
      464947 463957 463964 465968 468975 480984 484983 486984
      487988 487996 488000 492998 494995 498985 501981 506981
      511981 514978 517965 520952
 0.01 385806 384801 383800 379800 375801 371805 367808 364813
      361816 358821 354824 351828 349831 348838 350842 354840
      357837 360832 365825 372816 380812 385806
 0.01 361729 359713 356710 353708 347710 344715 341720 339724
      334734 328741 322749 313757 308766 306770 303773 297776
      290778 287778 284777 279777 266779 258784 249789 240797
      236806 236810 236817 241829 246839 249842 253844 262846
      265847 267850 271855 277861 284869 288871 293871 301870
      306868 311870 314873 318872 323868 325865 326860 328854
      327847 327842 328838 326833 322822 326813 336793 338788
      340783 340776 342772 355754 358748 360743 361729
 0.25 530208 530199 528192 525187 520183 515179 510178 510183
      512189 515195 519201 521206 526210 530208
 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513250 509238 498214 493211 487210
      477212 475215 476218 478219 485221 486223 486229 485230
      482230 477227 474220 466224 461228 456229 445232 435235
      431236 425235 419232 413232 402233 400234 398238 399243
      400246 405249 404253 394258 384265 377272 374276 377281
      390279 402287 411294 421299 426300 431297 441289 442282
      442273 440263 437256 442252 451247 462246 471246 477246
      483250 492260 495260 496255 494248 492241 493238 496239
      498241 501247 504252 507258 510265 514266
 0.25 500914 501904 500895 499886 498883 495882 490881 485882
      482879 478879 477882 475889 475897 474907 474917 476937
      476944 477952 479954 482955 488954 492950 495944 499931
      500922 500914
 0.25 448887 448876 446869 443863 440861 438858 436855 431856
      427859 419872 405894 400906 393919 380943 370950 365954
      370955 374954 377957 378959 381960 385963 391959 400952
      405948 412945 418945 423946 429947 433947 436945 440939
      442934 445916 447901 448887
 0.25 322801 321799 318798 312798 303798 297797 284797 283798
      281802 282807 257802 252806 250807 250810 250816 254821
      256827 260830 271834 277839 279844 286854 292856 298857
      302856 304853 303846 297835 293831 286830 280832 275830
      276826 280826 289826 293826 296824 297819 312819 316815
      319811 322801
 0.25 275797 273795 271794 270795 269796 268798 267800 268800
      270800 272800 274799 275797 275797
 0.50 510257 509249 508243 507240 505237 502232 499226 496221
      495220 493225 495231 497237 502242 505247 507253 508256
      510257
 0.50 496919 495909 493904 491901 487896 480892 478902 479905
      480912 479922 479932 480938 482942 488942 492936 495927
      496919
 0.50 461240 462236 460235 457234 455234 452235 450236 448237
      446241 448244 452244 454243 457243 459242 461240
 0.50 436287 438283 437280 436277 432266 431263 426260 417260
      410261 405261 401263 399267 399272 404280 411287 418292
      421295 427295 429294 433290 436287
 0.50 431246 430243 429240 426239 423238 419236 416235 414237
      413240 413243 416246 418247 421249 425249 426249 430248
      431246
 0.50 443906 444893 443886 442880 438871 435868 431865 428867
      425871 420879 411895 407902 403912 396929 396938 396944
      400946 408943 411942 417941 425943 430942 435940 439934
      441921 443906
 0.50 298845 297840 296838 293837 292836 288835 286834 282835
      282838 283842 284844 287846 289846 291847 294848 296847
      298845
 1.00 438909 438900 438890 436884 432880 427878 423882 418893
      412905 408918 407923 406933 406938 408939 416938 422939
      428937 433934 436928 437921 438911 438909
 1.50 434909 435902 434896 432891 429889 427888 423892 419900
      416910 412919 410929 410935 414936 419936 424935 430930
      432926 433921 434909
 2.00 429919 430909 431905 430900 427898 424899 420903 418910
      415917 414924 413931 414933 417933 423932 426928 429921
      429919
 3.00 422919 421917 419918 418919 419921 421920 422919

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 524260 523248 519240 518237 518232 520230 523233 527235
      529236 534225 537211 541198 542190 542183 537175 531168
      526164 523161 520157 512150 509148 504146 500144 495143
      483129 481126 478126 474133 469137 464135 464130 466125
      467120 462117 457111 443104 441103 438105 432108 427109
      423111 421111 419113 415117 404116 406124 412130 415134
      416139 419145 423141 426134 429131 436124 439122 441121
      442124 443129 443133 441135 438138 437141 441149 451152
      449160 450172 452176 455178 457177 459180 461179 463174
      464170 467169 481173 484180 483186 480188 476192 474196
      470199 466202 458202 450206 421212 417213 412213 400211
      396212 394217 391220 390227 393235 399241 402243 406246
      404252 418268 421270 426271 434267 434273 436278 439286
      446290 450292 453291 456290 459293 465301 469305 475307
      479308 483307 494305 501305 507305
 0.01 485154 486151 485149 485147 483146 483145 482144 480145
      479147 479150 481153 482154 484155 485154
 0.01 491838 490818 488812 484806 481800 477797 470793 463794
      459795 456792 454785 451778 451770 449758 447756 444756
      442755 438755 435756 432758 424767 418777 416784 412790
      406805 405812 404820 403827 403834 402843 399853 398861
      401869 390890 387897 382903 378907 373913 364920 355927
      351930 344933 341934 338938 337945 341960 343963 345965
      348965 355963 359963 363961 366956 369955 373955 381954
      386951 388947 390940 389929 389926 391922 394918 400913
      408904 412902 417903 425902 430900 436895 441892 447887
      452884 456882 463881 465878 469878 471875 475874 479870
      482864 486858 488852 491838
 0.01 455147 456145 456142 455140 453142 452144 452146 454149
      455147
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 387113 382115 379119
      375125 375130 378128 383129 386125 390118 394115 398113
      405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 377803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 389806 392801 394798
 0.01 395057 395055 393056 389059 385061 383058 381050 379048
      375047 368046 365048 362048 358048 356050 352053 347055
      344054 340049 336043 324043 313039 310036 306032 305030
      303032 302034 304038 306040 307044 307050 305053 301057
      296060 287064 277068 274069 270070 262069 258071 256073
      255077 258086 260089 264090 271092 275095 277102 286108
      289110 292115 297120 302122 309124 315127 325133 329133
      331129 331125 332123 335121 339122 341124 342127 349130
      352124 357123 366125 368124 369120 366116 352110 349105
      349099 350099 355102 357102 360100 362098 364099 366103
      370104 372102 373098 373093 371091 368088 366083 371083
      375084 381081 387070 395057
 0.01 219745 214749 211756 207766 211774 213783 216791 221798
      226802 229809 231816 235821 249828 244841 242844 243850
      245857 253865 263865 267867 270870 274874 277877 281878
      284879 289879 296883 300886 307887 317887 324890 333890
      337889 340885 345881 347882 351879 355879 357877 363876
      367870 369862 371858 369854 368849 366845 364834 360827
      359821 352818 344817 336813 331809 330805 331800 337786
      343775 352761 356755 362749 367743 371737 377726 378718
      376707 371700 368698 363697 358698 349701 338708 332714
      328719 317731 314734 313739 312741 307743 300745 293744
      286743 278740 272737 264734 258731 255733 248733 242735
 0.01 340065 339064 337063 335063 333063 332063 330064 328066
      330068 331068 333068 335068 337068 338067 339067 340065
 0.25 521272 513229 514221 516218 522218 528220 532216 534211
      535207 536199 537194 537187 531178 525172 520166 514162
      512166 508167 504169 499169 496171 495176 494181 494185
      493191 491197 484201 472207 464209 456213 443218 440221
      439228 437232 434237 428242 428247 429250 433254 436256
      441255 446257 452264 458269 464276 469283 475289 479291
      483292 487291 491292 502297 508294 514288
 0.25 448846 449838 448832 446827 444822 437801 434798 432794
      430790 424789 420797 416807 415817 414823 414830 415837
      416841 417848 416854 411875 410880 411883 414887 419886
      426882 433876 437870 443861 446853 448846
 0.25 371722 371717 370712 366705 360703 352707 346710 339716
      334719 329725 324730 320736 317742 317753 319761 322764
      325766 328767 332766 337762 349752 354748 359741 362736
      367730 371722
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 380070 380069 379067 378065 377065
      376064 375064 373064 371064 371065 371066 373067 374068
      374070 375071 375073 375075 376077 377078 379076 380076
 0.25 363056 364054 363052 361052 359053 358054 357056 357057
      359058 361057 363056 363056
 0.25 361067 362065 361063 359063 358065 359067 360067 361067
 0.25 352855 352851 351848 349846 341838 337830 331824 325817
      321814 315813 308819 302825 293830 286830 280831 276832
      272834 270840 273845 278851 280856 282862 288868 297871
      303871 308870 312869 317870 326872 331872 337871 344867
      350859 352855
 0.25 341098 340093 339091 338089 337085 336083 334082 332079
      329077 327079 325083 326085 329088 331090 333091 335095
      336097 338098 341098
 0.25 336056 336055 334055 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057
      328058 330058 332058 334058 336057 336056
 0.25 331105 330101 328099 322093 319089 315086 312086 309086
      307084 302078 297074 289072 282072 276077 272081 272085
      274087 284097 289101 297104 303107 311111 315115 320115
      319112 320108 322106 329107 331105
 0.25 259764 259756 257752 255749 246742 240740 236740 232741
      226744 222748 218753 214759 214765 216773 218779 222786
      225790 228792 232792 240790 249790 253789 256787 258781
      258774 259766 259764
 0.50 531208 532201 531194 528188 526186 527182 525178 521175
      515177 510176 507177 504181 503189 505192 510195 514197
      515202 517206 521209 527212 531208
 0.50 518273 519268 518265 517259 513243 511230 509222 505216
      505209 503204 500201 496202 490203 481206 476207 471210
      462213 456216 451217 447220 444225 445230 445234 442237
      436246 439251 444248 450247 453251 457257 462260 469269
      475273 481277 490284 496288 503290 507287 511283 515280
      518273
 0.50 443849 443840 441832 438826 436820 428810 424808 421813
      422817 421825 421833 422844 422852 421860 420867 420872
      421875 428875 433871 439861 441856 443849
 0.50 367721 368716 367713 363708 359708 357709 351712 346715
      341720 337722 333726 325734 322740 322747 325753 327755
      331754 343749 348747 353742 359733 362728 366723 367721
 0.50 331081 330080 329081 328081 328082 330082 331081
 0.50 331852 329846 326842 324836 322829 319828 315829 311833
      308839 307846 311850 313852 315856 318859 324857 329854
      331852
 0.50 303087 303084 301082 299080 296078 293077 292077 289078
      286078 284080 283084 284087 286086 288085 292085 295085
      297086 301087 303087
 0.50 300846 300842 298840 295838 293837 292836 288836 286838
      285841 285844 286846 289847 290848 294849 296849 299849
      300846
 0.50 253773 252767 250761 249755 246750 243746 240743 235742
      230744 222751 217758 217765 219772 224781 226783 232785
      237784 242782 248781 252777 253773
 1.00 514272 516268 516265 515260 513249 507229 503220 498211
      495209 491209 482210 475212 468215 461218 458222 459227
      461230 461236 465246 471251 479257 486263 491271 497278
      501281 504278 506272 508270 512273 514272
 1.00 491240 491234 488230 485227 482224 478220 474223 470225
      472227 477228 480231 482236 487238 490240 491240
 1.00 436854 436847 435842 431838 428837 426841 426848 425853
      427857 427864 427867 430868 432864 434860 436856 436854
 1.00 347734 346732 344730 341731 337731 335732 332735 332737
      333739 335741 339741 342740 344739 346736 347734
 1.00 247772 247767 245764 242757 240749 237746 232747 226751
      222756 221759 221764 224771 227777 230779 235780 240779
      246774 247772
 1.50 514266 514261 511255 508242 504231 500220 497216 492212
      487212 483216 483220 487225 490228 493233 498245 504254
      509262 511266 514266
 1.50 499266 497255 493246 490242 487240 484241 480239 478234
      475231 471233 469236 469240 471244 475247 479249 483252
      485256 491263 494267 497268 499266
 1.50 244773 243767 242763 239758 238753 235750 231753 226755
      224757 224763 225769 227773 231776 234777 240776 243773
      244773
 2.00 507251 507243 505236 502231 499224 497219 492215 489214
      486215 485219 488223 492227 495233 497239 500244 504249
      507251
 2.00 491253 491250 491249 490247 489246 488244 487244 486243
      485245 486247 487249 489252 490254 491253
 2.00 479244 479241 479238 478235 477235 476233 474234 473234
      472236 472237 472239 473240 475242 476243 478244 479244
 2.00 241769 240767 240765 240763 238759 236758 234757 230756
      228756 226757 225761 227765 228767 230770 232771 234772
      238772 239771 241769

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 205774 212789 214798 213804 213812 214820 217834 222839
      226843 232847 243846 246847 249851 253857 258860 266864
      272869 274873 274877 274884 272886 271892 267901 260911
      257917 254926 253929 254932 254937 250939 248941 248946
      249955 255960 262964 265966 269968 275972 281973 286969
      289965 292960 297948 300942 301932 302921 303916 304912
      307905 312900 318894 324887 328882 330879 334880 347884
      352883 358883 370887 377891 385893 387895 392895 401894
      413885 421874 424869 425866 428858 429855 429850 430841
      430832 431825 434819 436811 439794 440782 441772 440766
      441762 440750 439743 437738 440733 443730 448725 450721
      453719 458714 462716 462720 465727 467729 469729 472728
      473725 476719 477714 477710 479701 482696 485692 491685
      493676 494672 493666 495658 496655 494650 491639 490636
      487634 481632 476631 464635 453643 450652 447661 444668
      442677 437694 433701 427706 419709 416711 414709 415706
      416699 416696 412696 398700 394712 393718 392727 392738
      394748 396753 396759 398762 397768 397773 395777 388784
      377794 365801 358802 353801 338803 333799 330794 328773
      327770 323767 317763 310760 306756 305750 299733 290725
      280723 264726 258728 250732 237739 210757 206759 206763
      205774
 0.01 524262 526246 530234 533228 537218 538211 538206 538202
      538191 537184 534179 531174 528168 524163 514153 498143
      492139 488134 478127 473138 475141 478140 481141 481145
      478146 475146 471145 468142 463141 456145 451157 454161
      453169 451171 451176 452178 455178 458184 461188 463191
      467192 472191 477194 478200 475205 470208 458212 452213
      446212 440211 437211 436213 430224 426231 420233 414235
      411240 411247 414248 421246 426245 434247 441247 443245
      447248 450252 453255 459257 463259 467259 467263 468273
      470280 473287 475293 479303 490312 499311 506303 510297
      513292
 0.01 521229 522226 522224 522221 521220 521218 520216 520215
      519214 517213 516212 514213 514214 513215 512218 513221
      513222 514223 515224 516226 517227 517228 519229 520230
      521229
 0.01 501201 502199 501197 499197 498196 496196 495197 494199
      495202 495203 497203 498204 499204 500203 501201
 0.01 481097 481088 480084 475074 469072 466070 461070 458074
      454078 451074 447070 442067 439068 437072 437082 435088
      427092 423107 421111 421115 422119 424120 429120 433116
      434114 436118 434123 435126 435131 439139 444140 448136
      448132 450128 454124 458123 461117 464115 473108 477104
      481097
 0.01 446048 446038 444036 441035 438035 436038 433042 406050
      399046 395043 385046 378043 371045 365047 361048 357047
      352049 348050 345049 340047 333046 327044 324044 322048
      323065 320072 315076 311077 305076 297073 292069 277065
      264058 254053 247051 238052 234053 233055 232065 232073
      237077 244085 257093 261097 265103 269108 275111 280113
      285117 298123 305125 310127 313125 325121 332121 335122
      338124 344129 349130 356127 359126 363124 371115 375111
      380109 386106 392102 397097 401091 410081 413076 417072
      425059 432059 436057 439057 446048
 0.25 534209 533190 530183 527177 523172 519167 514166 508163
      504162 502163 496164 493166 491168 490172 490176 493181
      499186 511194 518204 527216 532214 534209
 0.25 520266 521260 521253 520245 519240 513232 508222 504215
      500210 496207 488207 483207 479208 475212 473216 472222
      473226 471230 468232 465236 463241 464246 467249 471252
      474256 480277 484286 492294 497297 501296 508291 512286
      513282 518271 520266
 0.25 418792 416784 413779 410779 406780 403785 398791 394791
      390791 387794 383800 374817 369815 365811 362809 360810
      353814 347823 342829 337834 331837 327840 325843 325847
      329852 334855 340855 349853 354850 359845 362840 364833
      366829 369828 375828 378824 390824 394825 398824 403825
      410827 412825 414821 416815 417809 418792
 0.25 401058 400056 398056 397056 395055 393055 392057 393059
      393060 394062 395062 396062 398061 400060 400059 401058
 0.25 392080 393078 393075 393073 392072 391073 390073 389075
      388077 387079 388082 390082 391081 392080
 0.25 385072 384070 382067 380066 378068 377071 376073 374076
      374080 375082 377082 379082 382081 384079 385074 385072
 0.25 354086 355081 354075 349077 341078 335078 332076 329077
      327082 329085 331092 332101 334104 339106 343106 345102
      347094 352088 354086
 0.25 327102 325097 323095 317086 299081 294081 292083 291088
      293092 297100 294098 289091 286087 282086 274086 266082
      261081 259085 262090 264092 270098 278102 284108 292113
      299116 304117 308115 312108 316105 321104 324104 327102
 0.25 305806 304796 302789 298773 296764 293759 285747 281743
      277740 270737 264736 256737 249738 242741 236745 229753
      218762 215768 215773 216783 218790 221806 223814 226819
      230824 234827 241830 247831 259830 268830 276829 280828
      282825 285820 297813 301810 305806
 0.25 283941 283933 282927 281923 279921 274924 270927 267933
      266939 268945 271949 276952 281950 283943 283941
 0.50 531208 532200 530194 529188 526183 524178 520175 516175
      512173 509169 506167 503167 499169 496174 496178 498179
      503182 506185 512188 518196 520202 523205 526209 529210
      531208 531208
 0.50 519265 519259 518254 517245 515240 505219 499211 494209
      489210 480210 478212 477216 479221 488226 494238 495241
      493241 490239 486235 481235 477231 474233 470237 469244
      476251 478257 480264 490283 494287 499289 504289 509287
      511282 513276 519265
 0.50 316093 315090 313088 312087 310087 308086 306086 304086
      303086 301085 299086 299088 300091 302092 303093 304093
      305094 307094 309094 311094 313093 315093 316093
 0.50 294797 293789 291785 289772 288766 285762 279753 271748
      265746 260746 253746 248747 237751 230758 222766 219771
      219776 221790 223803 225811 228815 237819 241821 248822
      257822 261820 262816 264811 269808 272808 279808 285807
      291803 294797
 0.50 282099 282097 281096 280094 278094 276094 276095 277096
      278097 279098 281099 282099
 1.00 516264 515251 510238 505229 502222 499216 494214 491215
      485215 484220 486221 489222 491225 492230 495236 498242
      501246 504251 505258 505263 503262 490242 486240 483242
      476234 473239 474242 481245 483252 488262 494273 501282
      505284 508280 508274 511272 516264
 1.00 284787 283782 281779 275774 261768 246766 239763 236762
      233763 228768 224771 223775 224783 226793 228803 229807
      232810 247815 253813 259807 274801 280796 284789 284787
 1.50 512263 513258 512252 510246 506237 502231 499223 498220
      493218 491223 492227 496236 500242 504248 507256 508261
      510263 512263
 1.50 505279 504272 502266 499261 495254 492249 490244 487243
      485246 486254 489260 492265 496270 499274 503279 505279
 1.50 275787 270785 264781 259780 254779 251778 243771 238767
      234767 231768 227773 226781 230797 233802 238806 243809
      249811 259804 265802 270800 271797 275787
 2.00 510257 510254 509251 508248 507248 507250 507251 508253
      508255 509257 510257 510257
 2.00 501272 502269 500267 498263 496259 493254 492250 488248
      487251 489257 491260 493265 496268 500272 501272
 2.00 504241 504238 503236 500232 499229 498227 497224 495221
      493225 494229 495232 496234 498237 500240 502241 504241
 2.00 269796 267790 263787 255783 247778 239771 236769 234770
      232772 229781 231792 233798 237801 240804 244807 249808
      254805 264800 267798 269796
 3.00 263796 262793 260790 252789 247784 242780 240779 235780
      234788 241791 244792 243795 242798 243801 248804 254802
      261798 263796

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 280944
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE MOSTLY FOR TIMING OF CURRENT
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE PREVIOUS TIMING WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY
1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE 500-MB
HEIGHTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 3 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE SHOWING
THE TREMENDOUS STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION
WILL AFFECTED BY A PAIR OF MOISTURE SURGES...EACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 850-MB FLOW IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WA CASCADES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN RELOADS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCELERATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRAVERSING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...IN SPITE OF SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT. GIVEN THEIR
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...INCORPORATED THESE SOLUTIONS HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WAS
TEMPTED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WA CASCADES BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE BELIEF IT WOULD BE MORE OF A
LONG DURATION FLOOD ISSUE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS EXPECT THE FLOW TO
RELAX AS THE IMPULSE FLATTENS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TENDED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FORECASTER...IT WAS BELIEVED THE 12Z ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORTING A QUICKER TREND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM.
THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP AS IT SIGNIFICANTLY WASHED OUT
THE WAVE LEADING TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMED UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN. THUS...THIS FORECAST WAS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY THE 00Z
NAM INFLUENCES.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

BY FAR THE MOST UNCERTAIN SECTOR OF THE MAP...THIS AREA IS PRIMED
TO BE AFFECTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER TN
VALLEY/ADJACENT LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL. BEGINNING TO THE
NORTH...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES WOBBLING ABOUT THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE DEFINITELY LIKELY GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TENDED TO LEAN ON A COMBINATION OF THE
18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS THEIR SLOWER SOLUTIONS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOT TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY WASHED OUT THE
SIGNAL A BIT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AT HAND...FELT
THIS WAS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

OF COURSE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE 03Z FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOST SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN COMBINATION. HOWEVER...WITH A TREND IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OBEYED SOMETHING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM. THE FINAL QPF PRODUCT FOLLOWED SUIT
ADJUSTING AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARISING
FORM THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO MUCH OF FL. DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3
ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND UP ALONG THE MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE METRO
AREAS. WHILE FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HIGH...TROPICAL RAINFALL
RATES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVE FROM THE
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
GIVEN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FLUXES. THE OVERALL SIGNAL WAS
CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ORGANIZATION NOT BEING GREAT SITTING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ISSUES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WHERE RUNOFF MAY
BE AN ISSUE. THE GRAPHIC WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMBINATION
OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF GIVEN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
TWO.


ORAVEC/RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 523264 521256 518246 513233 510229 508224 505216 503212
      503208 505205 508204 514209 519215 524220 529224 532222
      534218 536209 539198 536190 519164 515160 512157 509156
      505158 503160 500172 498175 497182 495186 492188 486192
      483197 477201 470204 466204 464208 463211 460213 453214
      446216 439216 433216 425217 421222 419226 416224 415219
      412214 407214 399210 395210 395211 397217 401219 403223
      400227 396228 388228 382232 381235 382239 384247 375255
      365266 363270 361275 360282 362284 364287 368288 376289
      391294 408300 419304 428307 435307 442304 445298 448290
      455273 454267 455259 455256 457255 461254 467254 472256
      475258 485267 491273 495278 503285 506288 509287 514285
      518277
 0.01 520952 520923 520890 519865 517854 516841 515835 514826
      513810 510775 506767 501760 496754 495753 492756 487765
      486770 486776 487790 487805 485825 485832 483831 482827
      479823 472819 469818 463819 457824 457834 458849 459851
      459856 455852 448848 443847 441846 441841 439831 438825
      436822 432821 429823 426828 424833 422839 418846 414852
      410860 406866 403875 399886 395894 391903 385911 380919
      373924 366927 359931 355934 352938 348945 344952 340957
      333970 333982 336985 340987 342988 342991 340997 335004
      329010 326015 323018 319027 313034 311036 308038 306042
      305047 305054 303061 299069 296070 292070 286071 275071
      271070 268068 259063 250057 241054 237053 234056 234063
      240069 244075 252079 257082 261084 263088 268095 271099
      275102 279107 283112 288116 294119 298118 300115 306108
      315105 319106 321108 331114 342116 347116 346112 343103
      330069 332061 339059 344059 349060 353066 357069 362070
      368071 370075 373078 377080 379079 382079 387079 395078
      403074 410071 412067 412061 409056 406053 400053 378050
      370046 367044 366040 362036 359028 358023 358018 361006
      367999 368996 371995 375994 384990 387988 389986 393977
      398970 402963 409956 413955 419955 422959 423966 424969
      424975 428980 433983 438978 442969 444960 448934 450923
      454915 461891 463890 464896 463908 465920 465929 465937
      464947 463957 463964 465968 468975 480984 484983 486984
      487988 487996 488000 492998 494995 498985 501981 506981
      511981 514978 517965 520952
 0.01 385806 384801 383800 379800 375801 371805 367808 364813
      361816 358821 354824 351828 349831 348838 350842 354840
      357837 360832 365825 372816 380812 385806
 0.01 361729 359713 356710 353708 347710 344715 341720 339724
      334734 328741 322749 313757 308766 306770 303773 297776
      290778 287778 284777 279777 266779 258784 249789 240797
      236806 236810 236817 241829 246839 249842 253844 262846
      265847 267850 271855 277861 284869 288871 293871 301870
      306868 311870 314873 318872 323868 325865 326860 328854
      327847 327842 328838 326833 322822 326813 336793 338788
      340783 340776 342772 355754 358748 360743 361729
 0.25 530208 530199 528192 525187 520183 515179 510178 510183
      512189 515195 519201 521206 526210 530208
 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513250 509238 498214 493211 487210
      477212 475215 476218 478219 485221 486223 486229 485230
      482230 477227 474220 466224 461228 456229 445232 435235
      431236 425235 419232 413232 402233 400234 398238 399243
      400246 405249 404253 394258 384265 377272 374276 377281
      390279 402287 411294 421299 426300 431297 441289 442282
      442273 440263 437256 442252 451247 462246 471246 477246
      483250 492260 495260 496255 494248 492241 493238 496239
      498241 501247 504252 507258 510265 514266
 0.25 500914 501904 500895 499886 498883 495882 490881 485882
      482879 478879 477882 475889 475897 474907 474917 476937
      476944 477952 479954 482955 488954 492950 495944 499931
      500922 500914
 0.25 448887 448876 446869 443863 440861 438858 436855 431856
      427859 419872 405894 400906 393919 380943 370950 365954
      370955 374954 377957 378959 381960 385963 391959 400952
      405948 412945 418945 423946 429947 433947 436945 440939
      442934 445916 447901 448887
 0.25 322801 321799 318798 312798 303798 297797 284797 283798
      281802 282807 257802 252806 250807 250810 250816 254821
      256827 260830 271834 277839 279844 286854 292856 298857
      302856 304853 303846 297835 293831 286830 280832 275830
      276826 280826 289826 293826 296824 297819 312819 316815
      319811 322801
 0.25 275797 273795 271794 270795 269796 268798 267800 268800
      270800 272800 274799 275797 275797
 0.50 510257 509249 508243 507240 505237 502232 499226 496221
      495220 493225 495231 497237 502242 505247 507253 508256
      510257
 0.50 496919 495909 493904 491901 487896 480892 478902 479905
      480912 479922 479932 480938 482942 488942 492936 495927
      496919
 0.50 461240 462236 460235 457234 455234 452235 450236 448237
      446241 448244 452244 454243 457243 459242 461240
 0.50 436287 438283 437280 436277 432266 431263 426260 417260
      410261 405261 401263 399267 399272 404280 411287 418292
      421295 427295 429294 433290 436287
 0.50 431246 430243 429240 426239 423238 419236 416235 414237
      413240 413243 416246 418247 421249 425249 426249 430248
      431246
 0.50 443906 444893 443886 442880 438871 435868 431865 428867
      425871 420879 411895 407902 403912 396929 396938 396944
      400946 408943 411942 417941 425943 430942 435940 439934
      441921 443906
 0.50 298845 297840 296838 293837 292836 288835 286834 282835
      282838 283842 284844 287846 289846 291847 294848 296847
      298845
 1.00 438909 438900 438890 436884 432880 427878 423882 418893
      412905 408918 407923 406933 406938 408939 416938 422939
      428937 433934 436928 437921 438911 438909
 1.50 434909 435902 434896 432891 429889 427888 423892 419900
      416910 412919 410929 410935 414936 419936 424935 430930
      432926 433921 434909
 2.00 429919 430909 431905 430900 427898 424899 420903 418910
      415917 414924 413931 414933 417933 423932 426928 429921
      429919
 3.00 422919 421917 419918 418919 419921 421920 422919

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 524260 523248 519240 518237 518232 520230 523233 527235
      529236 534225 537211 541198 542190 542183 537175 531168
      526164 523161 520157 512150 509148 504146 500144 495143
      483129 481126 478126 474133 469137 464135 464130 466125
      467120 462117 457111 443104 441103 438105 432108 427109
      423111 421111 419113 415117 404116 406124 412130 415134
      416139 419145 423141 426134 429131 436124 439122 441121
      442124 443129 443133 441135 438138 437141 441149 451152
      449160 450172 452176 455178 457177 459180 461179 463174
      464170 467169 481173 484180 483186 480188 476192 474196
      470199 466202 458202 450206 421212 417213 412213 400211
      396212 394217 391220 390227 393235 399241 402243 406246
      404252 418268 421270 426271 434267 434273 436278 439286
      446290 450292 453291 456290 459293 465301 469305 475307
      479308 483307 494305 501305 507305
 0.01 485154 486151 485149 485147 483146 483145 482144 480145
      479147 479150 481153 482154 484155 485154
 0.01 491838 490818 488812 484806 481800 477797 470793 463794
      459795 456792 454785 451778 451770 449758 447756 444756
      442755 438755 435756 432758 424767 418777 416784 412790
      406805 405812 404820 403827 403834 402843 399853 398861
      401869 390890 387897 382903 378907 373913 364920 355927
      351930 344933 341934 338938 337945 341960 343963 345965
      348965 355963 359963 363961 366956 369955 373955 381954
      386951 388947 390940 389929 389926 391922 394918 400913
      408904 412902 417903 425902 430900 436895 441892 447887
      452884 456882 463881 465878 469878 471875 475874 479870
      482864 486858 488852 491838
 0.01 455147 456145 456142 455140 453142 452144 452146 454149
      455147
 0.01 411105 410101 406100 402108 394112 387113 382115 379119
      375125 375130 378128 383129 386125 390118 394115 398113
      405112 409110 411105
 0.01 394798 393794 391794 386795 381798 377803 374808 371813
      374819 379819 382814 385809 389806 392801 394798
 0.01 395057 395055 393056 389059 385061 383058 381050 379048
      375047 368046 365048 362048 358048 356050 352053 347055
      344054 340049 336043 324043 313039 310036 306032 305030
      303032 302034 304038 306040 307044 307050 305053 301057
      296060 287064 277068 274069 270070 262069 258071 256073
      255077 258086 260089 264090 271092 275095 277102 286108
      289110 292115 297120 302122 309124 315127 325133 329133
      331129 331125 332123 335121 339122 341124 342127 349130
      352124 357123 366125 368124 369120 366116 352110 349105
      349099 350099 355102 357102 360100 362098 364099 366103
      370104 372102 373098 373093 371091 368088 366083 371083
      375084 381081 387070 395057
 0.01 219745 214749 211756 207766 211774 213783 216791 221798
      226802 229809 231816 235821 249828 244841 242844 243850
      245857 253865 263865 267867 270870 274874 277877 281878
      284879 289879 296883 300886 307887 317887 324890 333890
      337889 340885 345881 347882 351879 355879 357877 363876
      367870 369862 371858 369854 368849 366845 364834 360827
      359821 352818 344817 336813 331809 330805 331800 337786
      343775 352761 356755 362749 367743 371737 377726 378718
      376707 371700 368698 363697 358698 349701 338708 332714
      328719 317731 314734 313739 312741 307743 300745 293744
      286743 278740 272737 264734 258731 255733 248733 242735
 0.01 340065 339064 337063 335063 333063 332063 330064 328066
      330068 331068 333068 335068 337068 338067 339067 340065
 0.25 521272 513229 514221 516218 522218 528220 532216 534211
      535207 536199 537194 537187 531178 525172 520166 514162
      512166 508167 504169 499169 496171 495176 494181 494185
      493191 491197 484201 472207 464209 456213 443218 440221
      439228 437232 434237 428242 428247 429250 433254 436256
      441255 446257 452264 458269 464276 469283 475289 479291
      483292 487291 491292 502297 508294 514288
 0.25 448846 449838 448832 446827 444822 437801 434798 432794
      430790 424789 420797 416807 415817 414823 414830 415837
      416841 417848 416854 411875 410880 411883 414887 419886
      426882 433876 437870 443861 446853 448846
 0.25 371722 371717 370712 366705 360703 352707 346710 339716
      334719 329725 324730 320736 317742 317753 319761 322764
      325766 328767 332766 337762 349752 354748 359741 362736
      367730 371722
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 380070 380069 379067 378065 377065
      376064 375064 373064 371064 371065 371066 373067 374068
      374070 375071 375073 375075 376077 377078 379076 380076
 0.25 363056 364054 363052 361052 359053 358054 357056 357057
      359058 361057 363056 363056
 0.25 361067 362065 361063 359063 358065 359067 360067 361067
 0.25 352855 352851 351848 349846 341838 337830 331824 325817
      321814 315813 308819 302825 293830 286830 280831 276832
      272834 270840 273845 278851 280856 282862 288868 297871
      303871 308870 312869 317870 326872 331872 337871 344867
      350859 352855
 0.25 341098 340093 339091 338089 337085 336083 334082 332079
      329077 327079 325083 326085 329088 331090 333091 335095
      336097 338098 341098
 0.25 336056 336055 334055 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057
      328058 330058 332058 334058 336057 336056
 0.25 331105 330101 328099 322093 319089 315086 312086 309086
      307084 302078 297074 289072 282072 276077 272081 272085
      274087 284097 289101 297104 303107 311111 315115 320115
      319112 320108 322106 329107 331105
 0.25 259764 259756 257752 255749 246742 240740 236740 232741
      226744 222748 218753 214759 214765 216773 218779 222786
      225790 228792 232792 240790 249790 253789 256787 258781
      258774 259766 259764
 0.50 531208 532201 531194 528188 526186 527182 525178 521175
      515177 510176 507177 504181 503189 505192 510195 514197
      515202 517206 521209 527212 531208
 0.50 518273 519268 518265 517259 513243 511230 509222 505216
      505209 503204 500201 496202 490203 481206 476207 471210
      462213 456216 451217 447220 444225 445230 445234 442237
      436246 439251 444248 450247 453251 457257 462260 469269
      475273 481277 490284 496288 503290 507287 511283 515280
      518273
 0.50 443849 443840 441832 438826 436820 428810 424808 421813
      422817 421825 421833 422844 422852 421860 420867 420872
      421875 428875 433871 439861 441856 443849
 0.50 367721 368716 367713 363708 359708 357709 351712 346715
      341720 337722 333726 325734 322740 322747 325753 327755
      331754 343749 348747 353742 359733 362728 366723 367721
 0.50 331081 330080 329081 328081 328082 330082 331081
 0.50 331852 329846 326842 324836 322829 319828 315829 311833
      308839 307846 311850 313852 315856 318859 324857 329854
      331852
 0.50 303087 303084 301082 299080 296078 293077 292077 289078
      286078 284080 283084 284087 286086 288085 292085 295085
      297086 301087 303087
 0.50 300846 300842 298840 295838 293837 292836 288836 286838
      285841 285844 286846 289847 290848 294849 296849 299849
      300846
 0.50 253773 252767 250761 249755 246750 243746 240743 235742
      230744 222751 217758 217765 219772 224781 226783 232785
      237784 242782 248781 252777 253773
 1.00 514272 516268 516265 515260 513249 507229 503220 498211
      495209 491209 482210 475212 468215 461218 458222 459227
      461230 461236 465246 471251 479257 486263 491271 497278
      501281 504278 506272 508270 512273 514272
 1.00 491240 491234 488230 485227 482224 478220 474223 470225
      472227 477228 480231 482236 487238 490240 491240
 1.00 436854 436847 435842 431838 428837 426841 426848 425853
      427857 427864 427867 430868 432864 434860 436856 436854
 1.00 347734 346732 344730 341731 337731 335732 332735 332737
      333739 335741 339741 342740 344739 346736 347734
 1.00 247772 247767 245764 242757 240749 237746 232747 226751
      222756 221759 221764 224771 227777 230779 235780 240779
      246774 247772
 1.50 514266 514261 511255 508242 504231 500220 497216 492212
      487212 483216 483220 487225 490228 493233 498245 504254
      509262 511266 514266
 1.50 499266 497255 493246 490242 487240 484241 480239 478234
      475231 471233 469236 469240 471244 475247 479249 483252
      485256 491263 494267 497268 499266
 1.50 244773 243767 242763 239758 238753 235750 231753 226755
      224757 224763 225769 227773 231776 234777 240776 243773
      244773
 2.00 507251 507243 505236 502231 499224 497219 492215 489214
      486215 485219 488223 492227 495233 497239 500244 504249
      507251
 2.00 491253 491250 491249 490247 489246 488244 487244 486243
      485245 486247 487249 489252 490254 491253
 2.00 479244 479241 479238 478235 477235 476233 474234 473234
      472236 472237 472239 473240 475242 476243 478244 479244
 2.00 241769 240767 240765 240763 238759 236758 234757 230756
      228756 226757 225761 227765 228767 230770 232771 234772
      238772 239771 241769

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 205774 212789 214798 213804 213812 214820 217834 222839
      226843 232847 243846 246847 249851 253857 258860 266864
      272869 274873 274877 274884 272886 271892 267901 260911
      257917 254926 253929 254932 254937 250939 248941 248946
      249955 255960 262964 265966 269968 275972 281973 286969
      289965 292960 297948 300942 301932 302921 303916 304912
      307905 312900 318894 324887 328882 330879 334880 347884
      352883 358883 370887 377891 385893 387895 392895 401894
      413885 421874 424869 425866 428858 429855 429850 430841
      430832 431825 434819 436811 439794 440782 441772 440766
      441762 440750 439743 437738 440733 443730 448725 450721
      453719 458714 462716 462720 465727 467729 469729 472728
      473725 476719 477714 477710 479701 482696 485692 491685
      493676 494672 493666 495658 496655 494650 491639 490636
      487634 481632 476631 464635 453643 450652 447661 444668
      442677 437694 433701 427706 419709 416711 414709 415706
      416699 416696 412696 398700 394712 393718 392727 392738
      394748 396753 396759 398762 397768 397773 395777 388784
      377794 365801 358802 353801 338803 333799 330794 328773
      327770 323767 317763 310760 306756 305750 299733 290725
      280723 264726 258728 250732 237739 210757 206759 206763
      205774
 0.01 524262 526246 530234 533228 537218 538211 538206 538202
      538191 537184 534179 531174 528168 524163 514153 498143
      492139 488134 478127 473138 475141 478140 481141 481145
      478146 475146 471145 468142 463141 456145 451157 454161
      453169 451171 451176 452178 455178 458184 461188 463191
      467192 472191 477194 478200 475205 470208 458212 452213
      446212 440211 437211 436213 430224 426231 420233 414235
      411240 411247 414248 421246 426245 434247 441247 443245
      447248 450252 453255 459257 463259 467259 467263 468273
      470280 473287 475293 479303 490312 499311 506303 510297
      513292
 0.01 521229 522226 522224 522221 521220 521218 520216 520215
      519214 517213 516212 514213 514214 513215 512218 513221
      513222 514223 515224 516226 517227 517228 519229 520230
      521229
 0.01 501201 502199 501197 499197 498196 496196 495197 494199
      495202 495203 497203 498204 499204 500203 501201
 0.01 481097 481088 480084 475074 469072 466070 461070 458074
      454078 451074 447070 442067 439068 437072 437082 435088
      427092 423107 421111 421115 422119 424120 429120 433116
      434114 436118 434123 435126 435131 439139 444140 448136
      448132 450128 454124 458123 461117 464115 473108 477104
      481097
 0.01 446048 446038 444036 441035 438035 436038 433042 406050
      399046 395043 385046 378043 371045 365047 361048 357047
      352049 348050 345049 340047 333046 327044 324044 322048
      323065 320072 315076 311077 305076 297073 292069 277065
      264058 254053 247051 238052 234053 233055 232065 232073
      237077 244085 257093 261097 265103 269108 275111 280113
      285117 298123 305125 310127 313125 325121 332121 335122
      338124 344129 349130 356127 359126 363124 371115 375111
      380109 386106 392102 397097 401091 410081 413076 417072
      425059 432059 436057 439057 446048
 0.25 534209 533190 530183 527177 523172 519167 514166 508163
      504162 502163 496164 493166 491168 490172 490176 493181
      499186 511194 518204 527216 532214 534209
 0.25 520266 521260 521253 520245 519240 513232 508222 504215
      500210 496207 488207 483207 479208 475212 473216 472222
      473226 471230 468232 465236 463241 464246 467249 471252
      474256 480277 484286 492294 497297 501296 508291 512286
      513282 518271 520266
 0.25 418792 416784 413779 410779 406780 403785 398791 394791
      390791 387794 383800 374817 369815 365811 362809 360810
      353814 347823 342829 337834 331837 327840 325843 325847
      329852 334855 340855 349853 354850 359845 362840 364833
      366829 369828 375828 378824 390824 394825 398824 403825
      410827 412825 414821 416815 417809 418792
 0.25 401058 400056 398056 397056 395055 393055 392057 393059
      393060 394062 395062 396062 398061 400060 400059 401058
 0.25 392080 393078 393075 393073 392072 391073 390073 389075
      388077 387079 388082 390082 391081 392080
 0.25 385072 384070 382067 380066 378068 377071 376073 374076
      374080 375082 377082 379082 382081 384079 385074 385072
 0.25 354086 355081 354075 349077 341078 335078 332076 329077
      327082 329085 331092 332101 334104 339106 343106 345102
      347094 352088 354086
 0.25 327102 325097 323095 317086 299081 294081 292083 291088
      293092 297100 294098 289091 286087 282086 274086 266082
      261081 259085 262090 264092 270098 278102 284108 292113
      299116 304117 308115 312108 316105 321104 324104 327102
 0.25 305806 304796 302789 298773 296764 293759 285747 281743
      277740 270737 264736 256737 249738 242741 236745 229753
      218762 215768 215773 216783 218790 221806 223814 226819
      230824 234827 241830 247831 259830 268830 276829 280828
      282825 285820 297813 301810 305806
 0.25 283941 283933 282927 281923 279921 274924 270927 267933
      266939 268945 271949 276952 281950 283943 283941
 0.50 531208 532200 530194 529188 526183 524178 520175 516175
      512173 509169 506167 503167 499169 496174 496178 498179
      503182 506185 512188 518196 520202 523205 526209 529210
      531208 531208
 0.50 519265 519259 518254 517245 515240 505219 499211 494209
      489210 480210 478212 477216 479221 488226 494238 495241
      493241 490239 486235 481235 477231 474233 470237 469244
      476251 478257 480264 490283 494287 499289 504289 509287
      511282 513276 519265
 0.50 316093 315090 313088 312087 310087 308086 306086 304086
      303086 301085 299086 299088 300091 302092 303093 304093
      305094 307094 309094 311094 313093 315093 316093
 0.50 294797 293789 291785 289772 288766 285762 279753 271748
      265746 260746 253746 248747 237751 230758 222766 219771
      219776 221790 223803 225811 228815 237819 241821 248822
      257822 261820 262816 264811 269808 272808 279808 285807
      291803 294797
 0.50 282099 282097 281096 280094 278094 276094 276095 277096
      278097 279098 281099 282099
 1.00 516264 515251 510238 505229 502222 499216 494214 491215
      485215 484220 486221 489222 491225 492230 495236 498242
      501246 504251 505258 505263 503262 490242 486240 483242
      476234 473239 474242 481245 483252 488262 494273 501282
      505284 508280 508274 511272 516264
 1.00 284787 283782 281779 275774 261768 246766 239763 236762
      233763 228768 224771 223775 224783 226793 228803 229807
      232810 247815 253813 259807 274801 280796 284789 284787
 1.50 512263 513258 512252 510246 506237 502231 499223 498220
      493218 491223 492227 496236 500242 504248 507256 508261
      510263 512263
 1.50 505279 504272 502266 499261 495254 492249 490244 487243
      485246 486254 489260 492265 496270 499274 503279 505279
 1.50 275787 270785 264781 259780 254779 251778 243771 238767
      234767 231768 227773 226781 230797 233802 238806 243809
      249811 259804 265802 270800 271797 275787
 2.00 510257 510254 509251 508248 507248 507250 507251 508253
      508255 509257 510257 510257
 2.00 501272 502269 500267 498263 496259 493254 492250 488248
      487251 489257 491260 493265 496268 500272 501272
 2.00 504241 504238 503236 500232 499229 498227 497224 495221
      493225 494229 495232 496234 498237 500240 502241 504241
 2.00 269796 267790 263787 255783 247778 239771 236769 234770
      232772 229781 231792 233798 237801 240804 244807 249808
      254805 264800 267798 269796
 3.00 263796 262793 260790 252789 247784 242780 240779 235780
      234788 241791 244792 243795 242798 243801 248804 254802
      261798 263796

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 280900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE 500-MB
HEIGHTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 3 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE SHOWING
THE TREMENDOUS STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE REGION
WILL AFFECTED BY A PAIR OF MOISTURE SURGES...EACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 850-MB FLOW IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WA CASCADES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN RELOADS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACCELERATES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX TRAVERSING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...IN SPITE OF SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT. GIVEN THEIR
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...INCORPORATED THESE SOLUTIONS HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON BOTH DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WAS
TEMPTED TO PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WA CASCADES BUT HELD OFF GIVEN THE BELIEF IT WOULD BE MORE OF A
LONG DURATION FLOOD ISSUE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MODELS EXPECT THE FLOW TO
RELAX AS THE IMPULSE FLATTENS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TENDED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FORECASTER...IT WAS BELIEVED THE 12Z ECMWF WAS TOO SLOW WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SUPPORTING A QUICKER TREND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM.
THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT OF MUCH HELP AS IT SIGNIFICANTLY WASHED OUT
THE WAVE LEADING TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMED UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN. THUS...THIS FORECAST WAS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY THE 00Z
NAM INFLUENCES.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

BY FAR THE MOST UNCERTAIN SECTOR OF THE MAP...THIS AREA IS PRIMED
TO BE AFFECTED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER TN
VALLEY/ADJACENT LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL. BEGINNING TO THE
NORTH...A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES WOBBLING ABOUT THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/OZARKS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE DEFINITELY LIKELY GIVEN SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TENDED TO LEAN ON A COMBINATION OF THE
18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AS THEIR SLOWER SOLUTIONS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOT TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY WASHED OUT THE
SIGNAL A BIT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AT HAND...FELT
THIS WAS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

OF COURSE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE 03Z FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOST SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN COMBINATION. HOWEVER...WITH A TREND IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OBEYED SOMETHING
CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM. THE FINAL QPF PRODUCT FOLLOWED SUIT
ADJUSTING AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARISING
FORM THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO MUCH OF FL.