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000
FXUS04 KWBC 050838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


DAYS 2/3...

***NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.  THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE
OTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE MOST OF ITS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER.  A SURFACE LOW CROSSING
MINNESOTA IS FORECAST TO INTERCEPT A PLUME OF 1.75+ INCH PWS WITH
A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS WELL ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND OUR FORECAST HAS 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.  A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS GENERAL
AREA.  A BLEND OF THE CMC/ECMWF/GFS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION
BEST HERE.


***OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST***

A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  PWS ON THE ORDER OF
2 INCHES IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL
ASCENT COURTESY OF RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS FROM THE JET STREAK
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ALSO BE PRESENT.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA.  ALTHOUGH MODEL DEPICTIONS
OF QPF HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN AND A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED HERE.


***ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS***

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD OVER
NEVADA.  AS THIS FEATURE REACHES THE WEST COAST, MOISTURE FROM
WESTERN MEXICO WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE, AND ALLOW PWS TO EXCEED AN INCH FROM ARIZONA TO UTAH.
WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER JET STREAK CROSSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
EASTERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS AT THIS TIME.  IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS, AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WAS INTRODUCED HERE.  A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WAS USED FOR THE
WESTERN U.S.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


HAYES/HAMRICK

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 560073 560063 560056 560038 557026 554014 552004 550999
      548997 542990 536984 526975 520970 515962 512955 511950
      511944 509939 510933 512923 516895 518889 517882 516876
      515869 514863 512861 507856 500849 493843 487811 480797
      477792 473791 469791 468793 466799 464812 465828 466843
      466851 464856 459863 453867 444872 435875 428877 425878
      423881 414894 412897 408898 403899 398900 397898 397895
      401887 404882 405876 407865 408852 407838 406833 405827
      406817 406802 409799 411794 413786 413779 412768 410759
      408749 405738 401728 400722 401718 397707 395701 392697
      386691 378689 368691 363696 357704 351711 343721 338727
      334734 330741 324747 315757 308765 305773 304778 301781
      292786 282787 274790 266796 261802 256805 256810 258813
      269821 274826 279828 286831 289835 288839 286845 286852
      287865 284875 283879 282886 299912 303914 308916 314915
      321912 326911 330912 346935 350939 355941 360949 362954
      367959 378961 391977 407984 411986 414988 419993 428994
      434997 438005 443019 454036 466050 479061 481064 485068
      487072 488078 486107 487117 486128 488136 490147 492156
      492165 493179 494186 497190 503197 511199 516199 520200
      523199 526196 538184 540175 540167 539163 538154 539149
      541145 545136 547126 549115 553108 557088 558078 560073
 0.01 478671 476655 474642 470632 465627 460626 456627 452636
      454650 454661 455669 455677 456687 455701 450708 448713
      448718 450729 453733 458732 463731 465728 471721 475712
      477708 478702 480693 478678 478671
 0.01 358129 357122 354117 348109 345105 345099 343095 340090
      333081 329076 326078 325083 326087 326091 323092 321091
      317087 312083 306082 301080 291076 282072 277069 272065
      269062 265058 260051 253045 249041 243039 240038 236041
      231050 230055 229061 231067 234071 241078 246086 252092
      273103 282108 288114 297122 305128 310130 314135 314139
      311142 306145 303148 306153 309156 318162 328166 334167
      337167 340166 342162 341159 341155 346145 352139 357133
      358129
 0.01 334058 334056 334055 332055 330055 329055 327055 326057
      327057 328058 330058 332058 334058 334058
 0.25 548082 550072 550063 549048 546036 543025 540019 535013
      528009 519009 511012 508017 504018 499018 496017 490011
      488005 488001 489990 491980 493970 494954 497940 502919
      503912 503905 502892 500880 497873 493869 489866 485865
      480865 476868 472871 467878 462884 456889 450894 444897
      440901 437904 433915 430925 428937 426945 425955 423959
      418960 412961 402957 394954 391955 392960 399965 411971
      415975 416979 419982 422983 429983 434985 438987 442990
      447998 451007 459022 468033 475040 483046 496057 500065
      503073 506081 508091 510107 510122 509135 507140 505143
      503147 502150 504155 506158 519170 522173 524175 526175
      527169 526163 526157 527153 530147 531140 534129 537121
      541113 544103 548082
 0.25 399767 399757 397749 395741 392734 386726 383722 379720
      373719 367721 360724 356728 348735 342742 339748 336754
      333759 328763 325766 323771 323776 327779 333780 336780
      337784 339791 339797 338802 334806 326814 323819 322825
      320832 319834 315835 312838 309842 304852 298863 295876
      297882 302884 307882 310878 316875 319874 320877 321880
      323882 327886 334894 340902 344906 351907 358907 364904
      373898 379891 386881 391869 394856 396844 399782 399767
 0.25 397929 396924 394920 391918 385916 380916 375918 374923
      376927 378931 380936 384938 387938 391938 395934 396930
      397929
 0.25 317108 317102 314097 307094 296089 288085 271077 256066
      248061 245058 241057 239059 240063 242066 245070 246074
      252081 258087 276096 285101 291106 299112 304114 309115
      313114 315112 317108
 0.25 296815 295812 293811 289810 287809 284808 282808 280807
      278807 275809 277813 279814 281815 284816 287816 290817
      294817 296815
 0.50 544076 545065 545057 542045 537032 532025 527022 521022
      517024 515027 507035 504038 502044 506058 509068 512076
      513083 514095 515127 517142 516150 517154 519154 522151
      525145 528132 530124 533120 537107 540092 543079 544076
 0.50 515158 514156 513155 512154 511152 510152 509150 508149
      506149 505150 505153 506154 507156 509158 510159 512160
      513159 515158
 0.50 496916 496908 495902 493892 490884 485880 479881 476883
      471889 460898 453903 448908 443913 440920 436930 434939
      434945 434951 438956 437966 437973 439976 450985 454993
      457002 460011 463018 468025 473031 478035 484038 489038
      492035 493031 491027 483016 481012 482004 483993 484983
      487975 487951 491933 494924 496916
 0.50 395780 395764 394757 393751 390742 385735 379729 375727
      370728 358738 350743 345750 342757 342763 343768 348776
      352784 353793 352798 351802 336832 332843 332848 332854
      333862 335868 337871 342879 345888 349895 352897 356897
      366894 372888 375880 378873 380868 383865 389859 391850
      391840 391832 392825 393815 394805 395795 395780
 0.50 391931 391929 389930 387930 387929 386928 384929 386931
      387932 389932 391932 391931
 0.50 334828 334826 334824 333822 332821 331822 329824 329826
      329827 328829 329830 331830 333829 334828
 0.50 305871 306869 306867 306865 304863 303865 303866 302867
      301869 301870 300872 299873 299874 299875 300876 301877
      303876 303875 305873 305871
 0.50 299101 297096 294094 286089 279085 271085 264080 258075
      259082 266087 274092 279093 284093 290098 295101 299101
 1.00 531109 532098 532088 531081 529074 527067 524065 522068
      521073 522081 522091 521101 521109 523113 525114 530111
      531109
 1.00 487917 488911 488906 486899 482895 479895 477896 468904
      460909 457914 455921 451932 449940 449945 452950 456952
      464962 466966 466970 464970 462969 460970 461977 464981
      465986 465993 467999 468002 471002 473999 474993 474990
      472982 473979 477976 481971 480964 474954 473951 473946
      476940 481932 486923 487917
 1.00 391789 390777 387769 386756 384750 382747 379746 377748
      373753 368757 361757 357758 356762 355765 356769 359776
      361780 363782 365785 366789 361803 360811 362819 367822
      366829 361827 355831 346839 344842 342846 343849 346852
      352864 354868 357870 360870 362867 367855 371838 375832
      376829 378830 382833 384830 385827 385822 384816 386808
      390798 391789
 1.50 482912 482907 480904 477905 472909 469912 467915 467920
      466925 464932 463935 464939 470937 472935 473932 476927
      479922 482914 482912
 1.50 383795 383784 380780 380775 380766 376766 375769 375775
      377780 374787 375790 373793 369800 368804 367806 369808
      374810 378805 382798 383795

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 562018 562010 561005 561992 560983 560971 556954 552936
      547930 544925 542921 541915 539912 539906 537899 537890
      537885 535880 533876 529874 525868 519861 516855 513849
      509842 502829 499823 496815 489800 485796 479794 471792
      464789 460788 456787 448779 440771 437763 437752 436744
      432741 428746 425755 423763 416771 408775 403770 402764
      405759 412739 415722 417714 420708 422699 425694 427688
      428681 428670 427664 425664 415655 410656 407655 395658
      389663 382669 377675 373680 365690 362695 358700 353705
      349709 343715 337719 326727 319732 312736 297747 285755
      278766 273778 271791 273793 273796 265799 260804 259808
      260812 265816 272819 274824 273830 272835 273841 274846
      275850 279855 283869 286877 291879 297881 305881 314883
      316890 324894 329894 332894 333898 336906 338914 339917
      341919 344923 344928 345932 352934 354932 357926 359920
      360915 363916 368920 372920 379918 385915 386910 390910
      404915 413919 417924 420928 424930 430933 435934 438935
      446936 458940 471944 480950 492960 494964 495969 495976
      494980 490990 491002 494023 498042 498047 500050 503056
      509068 513074 516075 518078 523079 526081 533083 538083
      541082 547075 552067 554060 556050 557037 559026 562018
 0.01 513245 515232 511223 507218 503218 500219 494223 490227
      488231 484237 480238 475237 470238 464244 454258 453264
      453268 459275 462274 466275 473272 486267 498260 503255
      509251 513245
 0.01 451144 450127 454112 454107 453097 450093 446091 441092
      432091 428091 427092 425095 423095 420089 418085 416084
      411078 408075 410071 414064 416058 419043 420037 423037
      433043 435045 439045 443042 443033 439028 433025 434022
      437019 445010 458987 459979 459970 458965 455961 445952
      437952 433951 431949 426945 423942 419942 407942 403944
      400942 395939 388930 385926 379926 375929 375936 378943
      380951 380962 382972 386985 387992 383997 378008 371017
      366020 363020 360022 356024 354027 356042 356051 354060
      350065 345069 331074 324075 317075 306074 284066 274058
      264051 252046 245046 237047 233053 231058 235068 236073
      239078 246085 264102 290115 296118 303119 316121 321123
      327125 332127 337131 341137 346140 348142 349145 350148
      350153 351157 354158 360162 366167 368170 368174 365174
      361172 356170 350170 350175 368187 372189 374191 378197
      382202 386207 391211 398216 397221 395223 393224 392227
      395234 401236 407237 412236 417232 420231 424217 422209
      423205 425203 425198 425191 426180 427174 429170 435165
      440161 446155 451144
 0.01 425846 424837 422831 422820 423813 419807 417801 416795
      416791 412791 409791 406794 402797 396807 390817 381825
      373833 370833 366836 361837 353844 349849 349852 353852
      358862 361867 362876 362885 366887 378893 385892 389890
      393888 392886 393880 402873 408871 414868 417865 420860
      423853 423849 425846
 0.01 338056 338054 336053 334053 332053 331053 329053 327053
      327055 326057 327057 328059 330058 332058 334058 336058
      338056 338056
 0.25 546036 546025 546011 546003 544992 541987 537981 534979
      531980 526984 522989 518996 514999 512002 510006 509014
      511022 514030 517036 526045 531048 538048 542045 545036
      546036
 0.25 533957 533948 533942 530931 528919 526912 523905 515887
      509876 506867 502855 498847 492837 489833 485829 479824
      476825 472828 467834 459842 448857 445860 439862 435864
      433869 428877 421882 416886 413890 416895 420897 424899
      426903 428908 431911 438917 442919 448920 460906 465910
      468913 474922 476925 480927 487930 491932 494935 501947
      509963 510965 514967 519966 528968 531965 533957
 0.25 417679 414671 410667 406665 400665 394669 389674 380686
      365703 355714 345723 337731 330740 321750 313760 307763
      304765 303768 300779 300787 301796 303802 301808 292816
      287827 285834 285838 286843 291857 293864 297868 304869
      310868 317869 323871 334878 338879 342878 343872 342867
      339861 335856 331848 329842 327833 329826 331820 337812
      342808 346803 348800 352798 359796 366793 371790 376786
      378782 384778 390775 394769 396761 398753 400748 402741
      402734 404727 407720 412706 415694 417679
 0.25 431006 432999 431995 426986 421980 417977 412975 404973
      401970 398966 394959 391954 391959 395967 398972 399977
      397987 392997 389004 386008 386015 388024 389031 392034
      399037 405037 408035 419022 430009 431006
 0.25 414160 414153 412148 405145 402146 400148 398154 396163
      394170 396175 399181 402183 405182 407173 411171 414162
      414160
 0.25 405196 405193 405192 403191 402193 402195 402197 402198
      403198 404197 405196
 0.25 408110 409107 409105 409103 408100 408099 406099 405100
      405102 405105 404107 404109 405110 407110 408110
 0.25 392119 392114 388113 380115 372118 367118 363116 354114
      349111 346108 344105 343101 340091 338087 335084 332081
      329079 328081 331085 334095 334099 337103 340106 341111
      344119 345125 348128 355133 360135 365135 372132 376132
      380130 392119
 0.25 388086 388080 385077 381075 378072 375069 371070 369077
      370083 372086 375089 380090 384090 387087 388086
 0.25 311094 306089 299084 285078 278075 271070 266066 259061
      252057 248055 243056 240057 239062 239068 241072 252081
      264091 269095 277099 293105 301104 307100 310097 311094
 0.50 540019 540011 539006 537002 532000 529002 526007 524012
      525019 529023 530027 533032 535032 538029 540022 540019
 0.50 522934 519916 516907 512900 506886 501870 495856 490848
      486842 482838 478837 475838 469843 465850 462856 457861
      450865 445868 443868 442870 443872 443877 445880 447882
      453886 458891 463894 468899 472905 476912 480916 489915
      495918 500923 503928 505939 508947 512953 513955 516955
      517951 518944 516939 514935 517933 522934
 0.50 446908 445906 443904 441903 439902 439901 438901 437902
      437904 436906 436907 438909 440910 441911 443911 444911
      445910 446909 446908
 0.50 409686 408677 406672 401671 398672 390681 382691 355726
      342740 327757 321765 316774 314781 313788 312801 309812
      305822 304829 302834 297834 293834 293837 293845 294850
      297855 300858 305859 313859 317856 318851 317843 316836
      316824 316817 319811 324807 329805 334802 338798 340793
      344790 349788 354789 362789 367786 371781 373776 378768
      381765 386768 389768 391765 393758 393750 394745 397733
      399722 406710 409700 409686
 0.50 426004 425997 422993 415984 411984 407986 402996 396003
      393007 390009 392013 395024 396029 402032 406030 411026
      416019 423011 426004
 0.50 290094 288088 283084 273079 265072 261069 255066 251065
      253069 253071 249067 245066 245070 246072 257077 266084
      273092 277094 285096 290094
 1.00 509911 506905 502900 497896 495893 494888 493878 491868
      489862 485856 481852 475852 471858 469865 467872 471880
      472883 472888 475895 479900 484902 490899 495899 499904
      503908 507911 509911
 1.00 403694 402683 399681 397684 393691 389698 378710 374717
      371725 368732 365742 365752 364762 377758 384755 387753
      388746 390727 396712 401706 402701 403695 403694
 1.00 419006 416003 415998 413997 411998 408003 406005 401007
      397009 397014 399017 402020 406018 408014 411011 415009
      418006 419006
 1.00 351780 350780 348780 349780 350781 351780
 1.50 486874 486871 484867 483864 482862 479862 477864 477867
      477872 478875 479879 481881 483882 485881 486876 486874
 1.50 389712 388710 385710 382714 379718 376726 376733 375740
      375744 377747 383745 385739 386731 386724 388718 389712
 1.50 402014 401012 401011 399011 400014 402014

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 06 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E OWB 35 WSW FTK 20 NW GLW 10 SSW BWG 25 NNW BNA 50 ENE MKL
MKL M19 15 W HRO 25 NW SGF 15 ENE AIZ 20 W SAR CUL 25 E OWB.


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...BRINGING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT
GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS
BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL
AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL
QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS
NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN
AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS RETAINED FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN KY.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 06 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E OWB 35 WSW FTK 20 NW GLW 10 SSW BWG 25 NNW BNA 50 ENE MKL
MKL M19 15 W HRO 25 NW SGF 15 ENE AIZ 20 W SAR CUL 25 E OWB.


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...BRINGING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT
GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS
BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL
AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL
QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS
NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN
AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS RETAINED FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN KY.

HAYES
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 050649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE STRETCHED ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL FEED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE
WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
MAXIMUM QPF...AND BRING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS INTO NORTHERN AR.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO IN THE HOURS BEFORE 05/12Z....AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW PEAKS
BEFORE THEN...BUT THE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MO FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY AND
WESTERN TN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
PROVIDES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STRADDLE THE FRONT...FEEDING
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH KY/TN. THE LATEST NAM
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/06Z.

A LARGE AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERNMOST
TN WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS EXTENT GENERALLY RUNS BETWEEN 2.00 AND
3.00 INCHES...AND THE WPC QPF IS BELOW THIS ACROSS THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 00Z REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN
A DISTINCT SHIFT IN THE MODEL QPF MAXIMUM PLACEMENT IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...AND IT WAS NECESSARY TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN KY/TN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE CLUSTERS...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
RETAINED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
AND WESTERN KY.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE FRONT OVER ND/MN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
ND/SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND INTO EASTERNMOST MN. THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 05/18Z
THROUGH 06/06Z...RESULTING IN CONVECTION MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN ND. A SWATH OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION...SURROUNDED
BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.25  TO 0.50 INCHES. THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...AND MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS BELOW 2.00 INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (REACHING NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...MAINLY BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
AUGMENTED BY THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA. A STRIPE OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THESE AREA...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD SOME LOCAL 1.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD.

THE NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AFTER 06/08Z...WHICH TRACKS SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NE
THROUGH 06/12Z. INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESPONSE IN THE MODEL QPF TO THIS FEATURE. FOR THE MOST
PART...THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER WEST
CENTRAL SD FOR NOW...NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED WITH THIS
CONVECTION.


...NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVES IN A FAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FOCUS MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH THE SHORT WAVES (WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED IN A FAST FLOW).
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN
ME) TO PRODUCE SMALL LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME. SOUNDINGS ALSO
REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WHERE LINE OF
CONVECTION ARE MORE PERSISTENT... AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 05.0 INCHES
OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557059 557053 556050 557047 558041 559032 557015 553004
      547988 543978 539968 535960 527953 521948 519943 519938
      520934 520922 520914 518908 515897 513892 510890 505885
      495885 489886 484887 480891 478895 462925 456933 454942
      456948 460952 461959 462967 462970 459972 456976 452974
      446970 443967 441969 439972 436973 435970 432960 429947
      433938 426923 416910 413907 410901 406889 398870 397846
      396836 394830 392826 387822 384820 378821 374815 373808
      371802 369799 364799 361796 360785 359774 356768 354764
      348760 344759 342759 338766 334777 327794 325816 323824
      322827 320825 319819 317813 314809 310806 306804 297803
      294803 291806 288809 285808 279805 270802 261800 253800
      252810 257814 260817 265818 273823 277824 283824 291825
      292831 290836 289842 287848 285858 281875 279883 279890
      278894 280898 282901 285913 293931 296933 299931 302930
      305933 309927 314918 317911 319907 324905 329903 333906
      336917 337922 340925 343931 344944 346954 346960 348966
      352972 356974 360975 364975 368976 373977 376979 384984
      399998 409999 414999 416001 415003 413009 412017 414022
      417026 419031 422033 432034 422039 418048 416053 416060
      418066 421070 427070 431073 433079 432083 430086 428087
      425088 424091 425097 421105 418114 416119 415127 413144
      412159 415161 420161 424153 424143 427134 428129 431125
      435122 436125 436130 434138 433146 434152 436156 441164
      443168 446171 449173 452171 458165 553075 557059
 0.01 540195 542183 542179 541175 538169 536166 536161 533155
      528152 523147 518144 514139 508137 505137 503139 500146
      497153 494159 493161 493166 495172 502184 501194 500201
      498206 496206 489205 484207 480211 481219 485223 486225
      490227 494233 500245 504249 508256 511260 513259 514255
      513246 512241 514237 517232 522229 526225 530218 536207
      540195
 0.01 362665 357669 351677 340686 336693 332700 327714 324721
      320728 313741 310748 307757 306761 306765 307771 309773
      312773 315771 321765 327762 332757 339752 345748 352743
      358739 376733 381730 387725 393719 398712 401709 405708
      407705 408702 426677 428675 432673 441671 444673 447675
      449680 447683 443690 440699 439707 435715 434719 434726
      434730 435734 434742 435754 437756 437763 443767 448770
      453770 456771 462768 472766 476767 479767 482766 486763
      488757 490744 488738 488732 486728 480708 484689 483677
      483670 484664 484657 482653 480651 467644 460641 455640
      446642 444639 440638 437639 434642 426645 423647 419648
      415648 410649 401651 397652 394652 379651
 0.01 300101 299090 296082 288075 284066 278060 270054 267052
      262051 254047 245043 241042 234040 230043 229047 229054
      231058 237065 243071 249077 256083 263089 271094 279099
      286104 290106 294106 298104 300101
 0.25 522192 521186 519183 516179 513174 511171 509170 510175
      511181 512186 514190 518193 520194 522192
 0.25 534011 534004 532999 530989 525979 523970 520966 517962
      512957 508955 507950 506943 505939 503934 500929 495926
      486922 481927 478940 475948 474954 474957 475961 475965
      474969 466987 462995 461000 463004 470009 472012 473018
      470020 466021 463023 461027 460032 464035 468034 471032
      474031 476035 482042 488047 493053 500059 503060 506059
      508055 508049 504041 502036 499033 493029 490026 490022
      493020 497020 507020 514019 521018 526018 532015 534011
 0.25 514158 514157 512155 511154 509154 510156 511157 512158
      513158 514158
 0.25 473682 470682 469686 463690 458696 455703 452711 452717
      454722 457723 461721 464715 467707 470699 471691 473682
 0.25 459121 460116 460111 459108 456106 454105 451104 448103
      444103 443106 443111 442115 444118 446120 448122 451124
      454124 457123 459121
 0.25 452151 450148 451144 453137 450133 445132 441134 439137
      437141 437146 438151 441154 446157 450155 452151
 0.25 412671 411664 408662 401661 396662 393664 386669 379673
      371679 359689 353694 350702 350707 351711 355717 359720
      362720 370718 378714 384708 394696 399689 405683 409677
      412671
 0.25 400926 400918 398910 395894 391880 391874 390865 388857
      386850 384843 380839 377837 372838 368842 365849 362854
      359859 357864 352878 351887 350893 349900 349906 348910
      344914 343917 344921 352930 365952 369957 374960 378963
      382964 386963 389959 391953 397940 399932 400926
 0.25 314877 314870 314862 309853 303854 299857 295866 294872
      292878 291889 291895 292901 294906 294910 297911 302909
      306906 311896 313886 314877
 0.25 283086 283080 278076 269070 257065 253063 250058 239052
      235052 235055 239059 247066 256072 265080 268083 273087
      277090 280091 282088 283086
 0.25 269810 267808 265808 263808 262807 260809 261811 262811
      264812 265812 266813 266812 268812 269810 269810
 0.50 515991 516980 514971 510967 504963 502961 498961 496963
      495967 497975 497978 495980 490983 482982 477981 475983
      474989 474995 478002 482002 483004 486011 492014 498011
      504009 509006 511998 515992 515991
 0.50 501952 501945 499939 497936 494934 490934 487937 485942
      486949 487953 491955 496956 500954 501952
 0.50 402676 403671 400669 395670 389671 384673 376680 369688
      364697 364702 366708 370709 376709 380706 384701 386691
      396684 399681 402676 402676
 0.50 389922 389897 387885 386870 385863 384858 382853 378851
      373854 371858 366866 361874 358884 355895 353905 348915
      350920 353923 359930 365938 370946 377953 380953 382951
      384947 387936 389922
 0.50 309882 308875 306867 302864 298868 296873 295880 294887
      295893 296897 298899 302898 306894 308888 309882
 1.00 380913 381897 379882 379874 377868 374869 370873 366876
      364880 361892 359897 359905 360911 363916 366921 368927
      370930 373931 375929 378924 379918 380913
 1.00 304888 305886 304884 304882 305880 304878 303877 302876
      301876 299878 299880 299882 300884 300886 302888 304889
      304888
 1.50 376907 376898 375891 373884 370882 366887 363892 362901
      364909 367914 370918 373918 375916 376909 376907
 2.00 372907 373905 373902 372900 372898 372896 371893 369891
      367891 367892 366894 365895 365896 364898 364901 364903
      365905 366907 367909 368909 369910 370909 371908 372907

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 050048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI HSI 20 ESE HSI 20 N HJH 25 NNE HJH 20 NW BIE 20 SSW OFF
15 W RDK 20 E RDK 10 SE CSQ 35 NNW IRK 25 WNW UIN 30 SW PPQ
30 NNE VIH 20 WNW VIH 10 SSE AIZ 15 NNW SGF 25 W SGF 10 SE JLN
20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS 20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


0100 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO RELATIVELY MINOR...TRIMMING NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE...STILL SEE POTNL OVERNIGHT FOR
HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG AHEAD OF CNVTVLY ENHANCED VORT
DROPPING ESEWD OUT OF SRN NEB/NRN KS.  WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL JET/WAA INTO E/W FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION.

 SLIGHT RISK AREA ACRS ERN MT INTO NE WY/WRN SD STILL HAS SOME
RESIDUAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO FEED OFF HEAD OF WEAK SHEER AXIS
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN HI PLAINS.  SFC DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ACRS ERN WY INTO WRN SD AS OF 00Z..WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HRS BEFORE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS BETTER WAA LIFT NWD INTO WRN
ND..BUT WITH A GENL DECREASE IN HEAVIER PCPN POTNL.

ACRS THE NC COAST...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD STILL FAVOR SOME TSTM
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE HEAVIER RAINS WILL STAY
OFFSHORE..BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
SETTING UP ACRS ERN NC.


ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SULLIVAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042111
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
INCREASED AMOUNTS FIRST PD ACRS NE KS/SW NEB INTO NW MO WITH
CONVECTION LINING UP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EARLY IN THE EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK VORT DROPPING SEWD ACRS WRN NEB.
ELSEHWERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/SULLIVAN/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 462630 466633 471632 479635 486638 490647 490654
      489660 485669 483674 484682 484690 483696 479706 472728
      471734 468738 464748 458755 455762 452763 452765 449771
      446781 441790 435798 428803 425806 420806 417806 415804
      415800 417788 419775 424767 427762 428757 431746 435736
      434727 436715 439704 440701 440697 440691 437686 433684
      429683 424687 420695 416705 414708 412715 405734 396753
      394759 392763 387771 381778 373785 369791 363798 358801
      352802 350798 350791 361778 368770 371766 372762 372756
      370755 367757 361764 353771 345776 337782 330788 326790
      321791 309793 306791 304788 304783 306780 307757 310747
      315739 319730 325721 333706 336701 339698 346691 355686
      363680 371673 378668 385663 391661 397660 402659 405656
      408650 411644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535184 529170 527166 527162 527156 527150
      526146 526142 522136 518132 513126 505119 502123 501126
      503129 502135 502144 500152 497158 497162 498165 501173
      502176 502181 501193 501199 499205 497207 490205 484207
      480211 481219 486225 491229 495234 503246 510258 511260
      514258 513250 512245 513240 516233 522229 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537026 537021 535017 533999 533993 534990 534986
      533984 530978 525973 522967 517964 515962 512962 506963
      499964 492964 486962 481962 474964 469968 465972 461977
      457981 454986 448985 443981 439978 436975 435971 432965
      431957 430952 430948 433941 433935 430928 421917 417913
      413909 403881 397869 390857 385846 380834 376825 376821
      374817 372815 369815 363816 353825 349826 346825 342823
      338817 332815 326816 324814 320814 306812 300812 295811
      287809 282806 271801 268800 267796 266793 262793 256797
      252800 251806 251809 253812 257813 262815 272823 274824
      278824 285824 292827 291834 289842 287848 281875 280881
      278890 279895 281900 282917 284924 288929 294931 296933
      299931 305933 308930 314916 317910 320906 325904 329902
      333904 338907 342912 347923 350930 350934 347943 346946
      346951 348958 350963 353970 356977 361989 364994 369997
      380004 389009 399017 418034 435052 439057 444061 456067
      477078 489084 493085 495087 501089 506092 513093 521094
      526093 530089 532082 533072 530066 525062 521057 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484105 483100 481095 478092 474090 470089 466087
      455075 448070 446067 442067 440070 441074 446080 448085
      446089 440092 434092 431089 426088 424091 428098 423100
      424108 422112 420123 419130 422133 426132 432124 434121
      437124 433150 431154 429159 429171 426182 427186 426189
      422200 422207 424208 428206 431202 435196 455168 461161
      465155 475141 478136 480130 481122 482120
 0.01 225050 228062 231067 234070 242077 250084 258091 266097
      282110 292115 297114 302112 304108 303104 302098 302091
      301084 299080 297074 293071 288068 283067 272062 263057
      254052 245045 239037 235035 230037 227040 226047
 0.25 519012 520006 520000 518994 513988 509983 503981 497983
      484984 476986 471989 467995 467001 471008 476011 480012
      481015 483022 489026 496027 502025 508023 514020 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497056 494051 491045 489040 482029 477025 473023
      467024 465031 457039 455042 457046 460050 469058 478064
      489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 395673 392672 388673 383676 377680 372683
      363692 353701 351707 349713 338736 333747 328758 325764
      324770 328774 333775 339772 345768 354760 361751 370743
      379734 387724 390719 393712 396700 398692 400688
 0.25 410989 409954 403941 400933 401924 401914 400904 396890
      391877 385865 379862 375863 373864 366874 361888 359903
      358920 359938 361954 362970 368982 372988 376992 382995
      388996 393992 398993 403995 408994 410989
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309873 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 297906 301905 303901 306892
      308882 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 245056 241054
      237053 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 271086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 403956 403952 402949 399944 397942 396939 396931 396922
      397914 397905 396897 391885 386875 383872 380871 375874
      368883 366890 365897 363912 362928 362937 363943 367957
      368963 365967 367974 370979 374984 378988 384990 386987
      386983 389978 390982 393983 395976 394969 393952 403956
 0.50 387705 385701 382697 379695 374696 367701 364704 363708
      364713 363717 357723 350729 345736 338751 333759 332763
      333766 336767 343762 350757 356750 361743 365735 370729
      381716 387705
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296894 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392903 390895 387889 383884 378885 374889 370895
      369903 369920 367936 370943 373949 377954 382957 386942
      390927 392918 392913
 1.50 389913 388904 386895 384892 381893 374898 372905 374914
      375922 374931 375936 378938 382934 385927 388920 389913

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554083 552075 546063 545057 542051 536040 533034
      530027 525018 522012 521008 523005 526002 529997 530994
      528989 526988 524989 515995 512993 512987 511980 511970
      512965 514963 516959 518951 519945 518936 517930 517923
      514914 512908 509901 508896 507892 503877 501870 499864
      495860 490856 487852 484849 479839 472836 471838 469840
      468839 464836 451832 450831 447831 443832 441834 438838
      437840 437845 436852 436861 429869 428877 428885 430891
      431898 434911 438928 439930 439935 438939 436941 431944
      428947 420956 414964 413971 412977 411981 413984 416988
      422997 424000 425006 423014 423022 422027 421030 419033
      417034 412037 409042 408044 408049 411059 416068 419073
      423077 432083 434086 434089 433091 431093 427094 425095
      425098 425103 418114 416120 415130 415132 418134 423136
      428128 430123 434120 439124 441130 437136 436138 435143
      434150 436153 439154 443154 445153 449148 452144 455140
      459136 463133 470125 473126 476129 477134 480140 481145
      486151 491152 494151 497153 499156 498159 495158 493160
      491166 491173 491178 493180 497183 502185 508193 513203
      516209 520214 528217 533213 536209 537205 539202 542184
      542175 541167 540160 543155 546142 547131 549125 553110
      557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451661 444663 439667
      438671 438675 441684 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 419945 419930 419924 418919 417914 416910 414905 414898
      415891 414879 414870 416865 416861 417855 417848 416835
      415823 413819 412812 411809 410803 406796 403787 400781
      391765 387756 385754 380754 376753 374750 370745 367736
      368725 365721 362720 355716 353715 348716 347721 347725
      346729 342730 337734 334736 331741 328746 319761 309773
      299783 292786 282787 278790 273791 266796 261800 259809
      260815 262818 266824 269829 275834 286845 288849 288855
      289860 288864 286873 286885 285892 288898 290902 289907
      288914 290923 295930 319918 325918 329916 333915 337917
      337927 338936 341946 343952 348967 352971 355974 364974
      380970 393966 403966 409961 416952 419945
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 341137 343131 343126 344116 341102 336095 329092 317088
      308087 301083 289078 276070 274068 269067 262066 254055
      250050 243049 240051 238054 236056 236061 239066 243070
      255079 264088 271100 278109 288119 295124 300125 315131
      321136 327138 328140 331140 335140 341137
 0.25 534182 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148 505148
      504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180 529184
      533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522078
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 510071 510055 508042 505032 504025 504018 500006 499003
      500999 501993 502962 501946 497932 495922 492911 485902
      480892 476885 472884 468886 461895 457904 453912 452919
      453928 454935 453940 452947 449952 443955 434959 426964
      422968 421973 421978 423981 429987 436996 442004 446012
      450022 456046 458052 460055 468060 475066 482074 489076
      497077 503079 507078 510074 510071
 0.25 403855 403836 400820 398807 393796 388792 382792 372797
      369795 368788 369773 368768 366765 361763 358759 355753
      353752 350753 347757 341766 337776 335783 334789 328811
      325823 323830 320834 311838 304846 301852 297856 296861
      295870 297877 300880 302881 306881 312880 316881 318884
      320890 323892 329891 334892 336893 338896 340906 346918
      351930 359951 363954 369954 373952 379948 386943 389938
      392933 397921 400908 402895 403880 402864 403855
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495043 496037 496031 495022 493016 490009 488005 488000
      485991 484984 487976 493961 493949 492942 490932 487924
      484918 480913 474910 468913 464919 463927 463940 461948
      455959 454964 451966 444967 440971 439975 439980 447992
      450007 463033 466035 469036 470036 473038 476042 480049
      484053 490052 493049 495043
 0.50 396835 395826 393818 390811 386806 380807 374811 369814
      363818 358819 356821 352825 349830 346836 344844 344850
      345854 347871 343885 344893 347899 353913 355921 357927
      362941 364944 368945 374943 380938 383933 389920 392903
      396890 397881 397870 397861 397851 396835
 0.50 350791 350789 350787 349785 349784 348782 347782 345782
      344783 343784 343785 343788 343790 344792 344793 345794
      346796 348796 350793 350791
 1.00 390877 388864 389854 389846 388839 387836 385830 382827
      377827 370831 365838 361845 358868 358875 359882 361892
      364915 368925 370927 374927 379919 383911 386901 388890
      390877
 1.50 380861 381855 379849 377848 374853 371855 369858 367862
      366869 368874 372878 374878 377874 379870 380864 380861

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042111
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
INCREASED AMOUNTS FIRST PD ACRS NE KS/SW NEB INTO NW MO WITH
CONVECTION LINING UP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EARLY IN THE EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK VORT DROPPING SEWD ACRS WRN NEB.
ELSEHWERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/SULLIVAN/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 462630 466633 471632 479635 486638 490647 490654
      489660 485669 483674 484682 484690 483696 479706 472728
      471734 468738 464748 458755 455762 452763 452765 449771
      446781 441790 435798 428803 425806 420806 417806 415804
      415800 417788 419775 424767 427762 428757 431746 435736
      434727 436715 439704 440701 440697 440691 437686 433684
      429683 424687 420695 416705 414708 412715 405734 396753
      394759 392763 387771 381778 373785 369791 363798 358801
      352802 350798 350791 361778 368770 371766 372762 372756
      370755 367757 361764 353771 345776 337782 330788 326790
      321791 309793 306791 304788 304783 306780 307757 310747
      315739 319730 325721 333706 336701 339698 346691 355686
      363680 371673 378668 385663 391661 397660 402659 405656
      408650 411644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535184 529170 527166 527162 527156 527150
      526146 526142 522136 518132 513126 505119 502123 501126
      503129 502135 502144 500152 497158 497162 498165 501173
      502176 502181 501193 501199 499205 497207 490205 484207
      480211 481219 486225 491229 495234 503246 510258 511260
      514258 513250 512245 513240 516233 522229 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537026 537021 535017 533999 533993 534990 534986
      533984 530978 525973 522967 517964 515962 512962 506963
      499964 492964 486962 481962 474964 469968 465972 461977
      457981 454986 448985 443981 439978 436975 435971 432965
      431957 430952 430948 433941 433935 430928 421917 417913
      413909 403881 397869 390857 385846 380834 376825 376821
      374817 372815 369815 363816 353825 349826 346825 342823
      338817 332815 326816 324814 320814 306812 300812 295811
      287809 282806 271801 268800 267796 266793 262793 256797
      252800 251806 251809 253812 257813 262815 272823 274824
      278824 285824 292827 291834 289842 287848 281875 280881
      278890 279895 281900 282917 284924 288929 294931 296933
      299931 305933 308930 314916 317910 320906 325904 329902
      333904 338907 342912 347923 350930 350934 347943 346946
      346951 348958 350963 353970 356977 361989 364994 369997
      380004 389009 399017 418034 435052 439057 444061 456067
      477078 489084 493085 495087 501089 506092 513093 521094
      526093 530089 532082 533072 530066 525062 521057 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484105 483100 481095 478092 474090 470089 466087
      455075 448070 446067 442067 440070 441074 446080 448085
      446089 440092 434092 431089 426088 424091 428098 423100
      424108 422112 420123 419130 422133 426132 432124 434121
      437124 433150 431154 429159 429171 426182 427186 426189
      422200 422207 424208 428206 431202 435196 455168 461161
      465155 475141 478136 480130 481122 482120
 0.01 225050 228062 231067 234070 242077 250084 258091 266097
      282110 292115 297114 302112 304108 303104 302098 302091
      301084 299080 297074 293071 288068 283067 272062 263057
      254052 245045 239037 235035 230037 227040 226047
 0.25 519012 520006 520000 518994 513988 509983 503981 497983
      484984 476986 471989 467995 467001 471008 476011 480012
      481015 483022 489026 496027 502025 508023 514020 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497056 494051 491045 489040 482029 477025 473023
      467024 465031 457039 455042 457046 460050 469058 478064
      489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 395673 392672 388673 383676 377680 372683
      363692 353701 351707 349713 338736 333747 328758 325764
      324770 328774 333775 339772 345768 354760 361751 370743
      379734 387724 390719 393712 396700 398692 400688
 0.25 410989 409954 403941 400933 401924 401914 400904 396890
      391877 385865 379862 375863 373864 366874 361888 359903
      358920 359938 361954 362970 368982 372988 376992 382995
      388996 393992 398993 403995 408994 410989
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309873 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 297906 301905 303901 306892
      308882 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 245056 241054
      237053 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 271086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 403956 403952 402949 399944 397942 396939 396931 396922
      397914 397905 396897 391885 386875 383872 380871 375874
      368883 366890 365897 363912 362928 362937 363943 367957
      368963 365967 367974 370979 374984 378988 384990 386987
      386983 389978 390982 393983 395976 394969 393952 403956
 0.50 387705 385701 382697 379695 374696 367701 364704 363708
      364713 363717 357723 350729 345736 338751 333759 332763
      333766 336767 343762 350757 356750 361743 365735 370729
      381716 387705
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296894 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392903 390895 387889 383884 378885 374889 370895
      369903 369920 367936 370943 373949 377954 382957 386942
      390927 392918 392913
 1.50 389913 388904 386895 384892 381893 374898 372905 374914
      375922 374931 375936 378938 382934 385927 388920 389913

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554083 552075 546063 545057 542051 536040 533034
      530027 525018 522012 521008 523005 526002 529997 530994
      528989 526988 524989 515995 512993 512987 511980 511970
      512965 514963 516959 518951 519945 518936 517930 517923
      514914 512908 509901 508896 507892 503877 501870 499864
      495860 490856 487852 484849 479839 472836 471838 469840
      468839 464836 451832 450831 447831 443832 441834 438838
      437840 437845 436852 436861 429869 428877 428885 430891
      431898 434911 438928 439930 439935 438939 436941 431944
      428947 420956 414964 413971 412977 411981 413984 416988
      422997 424000 425006 423014 423022 422027 421030 419033
      417034 412037 409042 408044 408049 411059 416068 419073
      423077 432083 434086 434089 433091 431093 427094 425095
      425098 425103 418114 416120 415130 415132 418134 423136
      428128 430123 434120 439124 441130 437136 436138 435143
      434150 436153 439154 443154 445153 449148 452144 455140
      459136 463133 470125 473126 476129 477134 480140 481145
      486151 491152 494151 497153 499156 498159 495158 493160
      491166 491173 491178 493180 497183 502185 508193 513203
      516209 520214 528217 533213 536209 537205 539202 542184
      542175 541167 540160 543155 546142 547131 549125 553110
      557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451661 444663 439667
      438671 438675 441684 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 419945 419930 419924 418919 417914 416910 414905 414898
      415891 414879 414870 416865 416861 417855 417848 416835
      415823 413819 412812 411809 410803 406796 403787 400781
      391765 387756 385754 380754 376753 374750 370745 367736
      368725 365721 362720 355716 353715 348716 347721 347725
      346729 342730 337734 334736 331741 328746 319761 309773
      299783 292786 282787 278790 273791 266796 261800 259809
      260815 262818 266824 269829 275834 286845 288849 288855
      289860 288864 286873 286885 285892 288898 290902 289907
      288914 290923 295930 319918 325918 329916 333915 337917
      337927 338936 341946 343952 348967 352971 355974 364974
      380970 393966 403966 409961 416952 419945
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 341137 343131 343126 344116 341102 336095 329092 317088
      308087 301083 289078 276070 274068 269067 262066 254055
      250050 243049 240051 238054 236056 236061 239066 243070
      255079 264088 271100 278109 288119 295124 300125 315131
      321136 327138 328140 331140 335140 341137
 0.25 534182 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148 505148
      504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180 529184
      533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522078
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 510071 510055 508042 505032 504025 504018 500006 499003
      500999 501993 502962 501946 497932 495922 492911 485902
      480892 476885 472884 468886 461895 457904 453912 452919
      453928 454935 453940 452947 449952 443955 434959 426964
      422968 421973 421978 423981 429987 436996 442004 446012
      450022 456046 458052 460055 468060 475066 482074 489076
      497077 503079 507078 510074 510071
 0.25 403855 403836 400820 398807 393796 388792 382792 372797
      369795 368788 369773 368768 366765 361763 358759 355753
      353752 350753 347757 341766 337776 335783 334789 328811
      325823 323830 320834 311838 304846 301852 297856 296861
      295870 297877 300880 302881 306881 312880 316881 318884
      320890 323892 329891 334892 336893 338896 340906 346918
      351930 359951 363954 369954 373952 379948 386943 389938
      392933 397921 400908 402895 403880 402864 403855
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495043 496037 496031 495022 493016 490009 488005 488000
      485991 484984 487976 493961 493949 492942 490932 487924
      484918 480913 474910 468913 464919 463927 463940 461948
      455959 454964 451966 444967 440971 439975 439980 447992
      450007 463033 466035 469036 470036 473038 476042 480049
      484053 490052 493049 495043
 0.50 396835 395826 393818 390811 386806 380807 374811 369814
      363818 358819 356821 352825 349830 346836 344844 344850
      345854 347871 343885 344893 347899 353913 355921 357927
      362941 364944 368945 374943 380938 383933 389920 392903
      396890 397881 397870 397861 397851 396835
 0.50 350791 350789 350787 349785 349784 348782 347782 345782
      344783 343784 343785 343788 343790 344792 344793 345794
      346796 348796 350793 350791
 1.00 390877 388864 389854 389846 388839 387836 385830 382827
      377827 370831 365838 361845 358868 358875 359882 361892
      364915 368925 370927 374927 379919 383911 386901 388890
      390877
 1.50 380861 381855 379849 377848 374853 371855 369858 367862
      366869 368874 372878 374878 377874 379870 380864 380861

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 042025
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON DAY 2...A LEAD WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN MN.  THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF QPF IS
STARTING TO CLUSTER BETTER...SO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED.
THE 12Z NAM WAS HIGHEST IN ND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS BULLSEYE
SO A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED THAT IS CLOSER TOT HE
OTHERS MODELS AND 09Z SREF MEAN.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS
THE UPPER LAKES.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIKE YESTERDAY`S IN THAT IT INTENSIFIES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PRODUCES HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE WI/MN BORDER.
 THE 12Z NAM LIKEWISE PRODUCES A LOW CONFIDENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT QPF... GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL 850-700 MB
WAVES/DISTURBANCES.

CA/GREAT BASIN ON DAY 3...

THE PERSISTENT CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING TOWARDS AND THEN
ONSHORE INTO CA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST.
 LIKEWISE...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUXES DEVELOP IN AZ/UT.  THE MOISTURE
FLUXES IN BOTH AREAS LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FRI ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV AND ACROSS ALL OF UT/AZ.
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER JET CORE CROSSING
NORTHEAST NV INTO UT AND ALSO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
IN NORTHERN CA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CA/NV AND THEN EAST INTO UT/AZ.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS
APPROACH GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH PRECEDING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SUPPORTING A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OF THE WAVE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING/PHASING...WITH CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3 REMAINS DIFFICULT.

THE RECENT TRENDS FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE FOR A SOUTH
ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB WAVE AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
THUS A SOUTH NUDGE TO THE QPF/AXIS WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SO AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AREA IN THE OH VALLEY UP TO THE APPALACHIANS.

BY DAY 3...THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SO IT HAS RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH LESS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE IN OH/PA/NY.  SINCE THE
EXISTING BETTER DEFINED CLUSTER EXISTS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAM...A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE BELOW NORMAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 557089 554082 550072 546063 545057 542051 534036 529025
      525017 521008 524004 527001 529997 530992 528988 524989
      518993 515995 512992 511978 511970 512965 517957 519946
      515918 508896 507890 506885 503874 498867 496863 492861
      486858 484855 483851 481843 480839 472835 471838 471843
      469846 467846 464844 452837 445833 441829 436830 431831
      428836 424823 423816 421812 419803 416793 412784 408776
      403768 401765 396765 387769 383769 380766 376760 373751
      369743 367736 368730 368724 365721 357716 353715 348716
      347724 347727 345729 341731 334736 330743 320758 316764
      311770 307776 301781 294784 283787 275790 266796 262798
      260803 259807 260814 263821 269827 273833 279838 285844
      287846 288853 288863 286870 286884 285893 289900 289908
      288912 289916 290923 292927 295931 298930 303928 306924
      312918 322918 327917 331915 334917 335922 338932 339939
      340944 346963 350969 355974 363974 368974 372973 377972
      382970 389966 398970 403972 408973 412973 412977 412982
      414986 423999 427002 428005 428010 427014 428020 428027
      425030 417033 412038 408044 409052 412061 417069 420073
      423077 429081 432084 434089 432092 427094 425098 425103
      416118 415131 418135 423136 426131 430123 433120 437122
      440125 441130 437137 435141 434148 436153 441154 444153
      447150 453142 459135 472126 475126 476129 477134 481142
      482147 486151 488152 492152 494151 497153 499156 494160
      490169 491178 505189 515206 520213 525216 530217 535210
      539198 541194 542186 542178 542172 540164 541159 543154
      553105 557089
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      494210 493215 492217 490222 491225 495231 497236 499242
      503248 506249 508248
 0.01 472685 471674 467667 463663 458661 451660 444663 439667
      438670 438675 441683 441692 440709 441720 445725 451726
      458724 463713 466705 469699 469694 471691 472685
 0.01 441940 438926 434911 431897 430892 429888 428881 428871
      427867 426865 424867 420879 419886 421893 421903 423909
      424917 425926 428942 428945 431945 437944 441940
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386049 386050 388052
      390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 347108 345103 342093 338089 336084
      333080 329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115
      342127 344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 326111 323108 321106 317105 314104 312102 308097
      302087 299083 293080 283075 274068 262065 255056 252052
      247049 241050 237055 236061 238066 247073 255079 264088
      268097 283114 292122 298124 306124 313125 317125 319127
      324127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518077 517079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523114 522120
      524130 526133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 509073 507045 505035 504029 504024 504018 503011 501006
      500998 501989 500984 499978 502972 502956 499942 494919
      490910 484902 475887 470887 466889 458895 455903 453910
      454918 455923 455931 455944 452954 449959 446961 439968
      437971 436978 443997 446008 448012 449019 450030 450044
      451050 453055 457057 462058 468060 471063 475070 476076
      476085 477090 480091 482090 487082 488078 493078 499079
      504078 507076 509073
 0.25 410852 409844 407833 403817 400810 397805 393799 388796
      382794 378795 374797 364805 356808 352813 349816 345817
      342816 343813 344810 350809 353798 359794 364789 366785
      367777 367770 365762 357751 352751 348754 341766 338772
      336780 333795 329822 327828 324834 310839 306843 303848
      296859 295868 296873 298878 303882 311880 317878 322878
      323880 325883 328885 334886 338889 341898 342907 344915
      347923 350929 352934 355941 357947 361953 367954 373952
      384945 394938 398934 402928 406911 407904 407895 408886
      408875 409862 410852
 0.25 292814 290810 287808 283805 280803 276802 271804 269808
      271814 273817 278817 283818 286819 290817 292814
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 495020 495012 493004 493000 492991 490989 487988 483984
      485978 487970 491956 492947 491939 489931 485925 482921
      478917 472915 467918 465924 464935 463942 460949 456962
      454969 451974 449980 450988 453003 454010 457018 459023
      461026 461030 465038 470036 474038 479039 484038 489036
      492031 495020
 0.50 403862 403852 402843 400835 398828 391815 388811 383808
      380808 376809 371813 367816 365819 361818 357820 353825
      350830 348838 352854 353863 352872 351890 350896 351906
      354920 359932 362939 366943 372943 378940 387934 391929
      394922 401894 402886 403876 403862
 0.50 359779 359773 356768 353766 351767 349771 348776 346781
      343784 344790 346794 349793 351789 355786 358783 359779
      359779
 1.00 393881 393869 394860 392848 389840 384833 381831 378833
      373840 370847 365854 362863 361873 362885 362893 365903
      366914 369921 371925 374928 379928 382925 385917 388909
      392889 393881
 1.50 384863 384856 381853 377855 374858 369865 368870 368874
      370886 374896 377904 378906 380902 381899 380893 383883
      384877 384870 384863

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 548052 549035 550017 548003 545995 541987 539983 538974
      535944 534936 533931 530919 523900 521894 518890 515885
      511882 505874 500868 494860 487853 485851 482849 477841
      472833 469831 465830 459832 455835 453839 449843 411858
      408859 405857 404853 408845 410841 411837 414828 419806
      421784 422778 421771 420766 420761 428741 431732 433726
      434718 435707 434699 433695 434691 428669 423663 417660
      408657 398658 379663 362672 359675 354676 345683 338689
      331697 327701 324706 320713 304744 300752 295760 290767
      285772 274785 272789 268792 263794 257795 251796 251800
      253814 253819 256820 263825 266827 269832 271844 272851
      274857 277867 281875 287881 301889 311903 320901 326900
      331898 336907 341917 343922 344925 346926 350929 352933
      356942 362949 368956 375957 381958 383962 388970 391973
      394975 402979 409983 412984 410986 405986 398991 391999
      380014 374025 369034 365041 363047 363052 358061 353066
      349069 345071 336075 328076 325078 319077 308076 300073
      293072 288070 278069 274071 271076 268084 268089 269094
      275102 289114 296118 300120 305122 316123 320122 327123
      334127 337129 339133 344140 351144 363145 372149 375152
      373156 371161 372165 376173 380176 385178 386181 385185
      382190 375186 372183 367181 363183 362186 371192 378199
      381206 386214 388217 392219 402219 407221 412220 419214
      425209 430200 428192 425188 420186 411183 405181 402179
      402176 411171 416173 420171 422169 424165 427160 426155
 0.01 426155 424150 420145 420141 419139 415139 414141 410145
      405149 403142 399137 395133 393131 394127 398123 402120
      412115 415109 416104 413099 410096 404097 399101 394103
      389103 384100 385095 387093 402077 411069 415057 413049
      414041 418027 431006 431996 430990 428988 430985 436984
      442984 447987 452992 453998 460008 464006 466009 468013
      471025 474033 477039 482041 486043 490045 493044 496046
      490054 486062 485070 485078 487085 490099 493105 500106
      507097 508088 511087 513089 518091 524091 532085 540075
      543071 545064 548052
 0.01 442108 443103 441101 441098 440095 436095 434095 431097
      430099 429101 428106 428108 430111 431114 435114 436114
      438112 440110 442108
 0.01 397234 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224 390225
      389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233 393234
      394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 412896 408889 404882 401876 398869 395870 393874 390881
      390892 391898 392901 392907 396910 401910 408907 411904
      411898 412896
 0.25 525073 526071 526068 525066 525065 524062 524061 523060
      522058 521057 519059 519062 519063 519064 519067 520070
      522072 522073 523073 525074 525073
 0.25 526023 525009 525002 522997 516989 510981 507972 504958
      501931 498918 496904 493892 488881 483874 476867 468863
      460865 452869 444869 438869 432871 429873 426876 423924
      423934 424941 426946 428951 431955 438960 453970 460977
      464981 465985 478993 491008 502022 509030 514030 517028
      526023
 0.25 416712 415703 414696 410691 406687 401686 395686 383692
      374699 367707 353728 347736 340746 333756 327766 322775
      316785 310795 301802 296805 292809 290814 291820 292836
      294851 297859 299864 305873 310877 315879 319878 324874
      327870 330868 331871 332879 337882 342883 345882 347880
      349874 350865 353860 355858 358857 363855 367851 376845
      386838 393829 399818 404806 407792 409778 409763 410746
      411739 413732 415721 416712
 0.25 407028 409026 409024 407022 406021 404023 404026 404028
      405029 407028 407028
 0.25 395032 394032 394030 393028 391028 389029 389030 390031
      390034 391034 392034 393034 394032 395032
 0.25 391938 391932 388927 382918 376911 371902 362905 360911
      359918 360926 361932 364936 368940 376945 379948 384950
      389941 391938
 0.25 366130 368126 366123 363121 361120 358119 354120 352121
      351124 351127 353130 354132 356134 360134 361134 365132
      366130
 0.50 489954 490947 490938 489922 483899 478890 471883 468880
      464879 458879 452881 434883 433888 435893 437899 438904
      438917 436923 435930 436938 438943 440947 443951 451955
      460957 468963 479963 486960 489954
 0.50 408731 407718 406711 405705 403701 399698 389702 382706
      376712 371718 365724 354736 345750 341758 338766 332783
      328791 324798 322806 321813 323816 327816 330813 335807
      342801 350798 354799 356803 356813 357820 357827 355830
      354835 357838 360839 368837 379836 386831 391825 395817
      401799 403789 404778 405756 406742 408731
 0.50 377934 378931 377929 377928 376927 375925 374925 373924
      371923 370925 371927 371928 372929 373931 374932 375933
      376934 377934 377934
 0.50 325838 323827 320823 321822 319819 314819 308820 305821
      302824 300834 301844 305854 310860 315862 317862 320859
      322855 324851 324844 325838
 1.00 401734 401728 399724 397721 392721 383724 377728 371734
      366741 362748 361752 359756 356764 359774 364781 369786
      379798 383800 386799 393795 396792 397788 397777 399756
      401737 401734
 1.50 396749 395736 392732 388732 385734 382738 377744 373754
      373765 378773 384779 388781 392781 393778 394771 395760
      396749

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 041848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 041848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 041848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 041848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 05/0000 UTC THRU AUG 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN TWO STREAMS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY--WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
KS---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF MO---FAR NORTHERN
AR---SOUTHERN IL AND INTO FAR WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN.
CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS IS NOT GREAT THIS PERIOD
GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.  THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES
MEANS WERE USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD--BUT
INCREASING SPREAD IN THE HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAD TO NOT USING THEM
MUCH TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1. THE ECMWF AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THEY
SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE MORE CONSISTENT REALISTIC LOOKING SOLUTIONS.
 .50-1" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND NORTHEAST
PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON---INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WHICH SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES RUNS WERE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ID INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MT AND NORTHWEST WY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND--SOUTHERN SASK/SOUTHERN MB.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
MT ACROSS MOST OF ND.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN WAS
USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS---WITH MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF .25-.50"
DEPICTED.

OUTER BANKS OF NC

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY DAY 1 AND THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE---WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452626 460629 464632 469633 477634 480635 483637 487640
      490644 490654 488660 486666 484672 483677 484682 484689
      483695 480706 476715 473724 470736 464747 461751 458756
      455762 450768 446780 442788 438794 434799 431802 426805
      421806 416806 415801 417788 430751 431745 434740 436734
      434730 436715 439704 441694 439689 435684 431682 428683
      426686 422692 417702 414707 412713 410718 409722 405734
      401742 397751 393760 389768 383775 376783 363798 359801
      354802 350800 350794 351789 354787 356783 359781 366773
      369769 371764 372759 371755 368755 364759 361764 355770
      346776 340781 333785 325790 312792 308792 304789 303784
      306780 309775 307771 306764 306759 309750 310747 313742
      316738 317733 323723 333706 338699 341695 345692 360682
      377669 386663 397660 401659 404657 407652 410644 415639
 0.01 537202 538191 535185 529170 527163 527157 527152 526147
      526142 522136 505119 503122 502125 502133 502143 500152
      497157 497161 498164 501172 502175 502181 501199 500203
      498206 490205 484206 481211 481218 483222 486225 491228
      495233 503246 509257 511260 513259 514254 513250 512241
      515234 520230 526225 537202
 0.01 536040 537021 534002 533997 533992 535989 534986 528976
      520966 514962 507962 501964 495964 487963 485962 481962
      475964 471966 462975 459979 455984 454986 451987 447985
      436975 433969 431961 431957 430953 430947 432943 433939
      433935 430928 423919 419914 414910 409898 406887 391858
      386847 380834 376828 376821 374817 372815 365815 357821
      353826 349826 345825 341823 337817 325814 318815 315813
      310813 295811 284807 273802 268800 266793 260794 256797
      251801 251808 253812 259814 265817 269820 275824 285824
      291825 292828 291832 288845 282869 279884 278894 281900
      282917 284923 288929 293931 297933 300931 303933 306933
      308931 317909 321905 328903 335905 341909 346922 349929
      350934 346947 346954 350962 359985 362991 365995 371999
      377002 383005 388009 393012 399017 407024 417033 425041
      428046 432049 441059 447063 454066 466072 477078 486083
      493085 495087 499088 504091 509092 522094 527093 531087
      532082 533076 533071 531068 522060 521057 523055 526055
      531050 534045 536040
 0.01 482120 484106 484100 482097 475091 471090 466087 456076
      442067 440069 440073 445079 448083 447088 443091 440092
      435092 431089 424089 426094 428097 423100 425107 422112
      420120 419129 421132 424134 426132 431124 434121 436121
      436129 435136 433150 429158 428169 426189 422199 421205
      423208 428207 430203 435196 438193 440188 444183 455168
      465157 470148 475141 478136 479130 480124 482120
 0.01 225050 228061 230066 234070 241076 250084 256090 266097
      282110 290115 296115 302112 304108 304106 302100 302091
      300080 298075 293071 272062 264058 254052 246046 239037
      235035 231036 227039 226047
 0.25 519012 521001 518994 514988 509983 503981 497983 484984
      477985 471989 468994 467001 470007 472009 476011 480012
      481015 483022 488025 492027 496027 508023 513021 517017
      519012
 0.25 498064 497057 494051 491046 489040 486035 482029 478026
      473023 468024 465031 457039 455042 456045 460050 469058
      478064 489069 494069 498064
 0.25 465715 466707 463701 460701 457704 456707 453713 452718
      451723 450728 453733 455732 460729 463726 464722 465716
      465715
 0.25 452151 450148 449147 447145 446142 444139 441139 439141
      438144 438148 438151 439154 442156 444159 448158 449156
      451154 452151
 0.25 428652 427649 426649 425650 425651 424653 425654 427654
      428652
 0.25 400688 399678 396673 390673 383676 377679 372683 363692
      354699 352705 349713 338736 334747 328758 325764 324769
      326773 329775 333775 339773 343769 354760 360752 365747
      370743 379735 387724 390719 392713 396700 398693 400688
 0.25 409991 409987 408982 408975 403959 401945 400936 400929
      401919 401911 399901 397893 393881 387868 385865 383863
      377862 371867 368871 363883 361890 359899 358907 359914
      358923 358934 362967 366978 370984 374990 378993 383995
      387996 390995 390990 394989 401994 406993 409991
 0.25 390746 390743 388743 382745 381748 380753 379759 378764
      380769 383767 386763 388760 390755 390748 390746
 0.25 309880 309874 308867 306859 304854 300855 297858 295862
      291870 288879 288891 291900 294903 299905 302903 304899
      307889 309880
 0.25 279084 274077 270073 266070 257065 250060 241054 237053
      236055 237058 244066 251072 257078 265084 270086 275085
      279084
 0.50 502008 501006 502003 502999 500997 497996 493996 490996
      487997 486000 487002 488007 490008 493010 495011 498012
      500011 502008
 0.50 387705 383698 380695 374696 367700 364703 363708 364712
      363716 357723 351729 345736 338751 333758 332764 334767
      336767 342763 350757 355751 361743 364736 370729 381716
      387705
 0.50 396920 397912 397905 396897 394891 390882 384872 378871
      375874 368883 366888 365894 364907 362920 362936 364948
      368959 369962 367964 365968 367975 369979 376986 380989
      383990 386988 387980 389978 393981 395977 396969 395962
      394956 394947 394933 396920
 0.50 302880 303876 302872 301868 298870 296872 296874 294877
      293881 292883 292887 292891 294893 296893 298891 299889
      300886 301882 302880
 1.00 392913 392904 390895 388890 383884 379884 374889 370894
      369898 369903 369912 369923 367930 369938 374952 377957
      380959 381960 384959 386943 389927 392919 392913
 1.50 388920 389908 387897 386894 383892 377895 374898 373902
      373909 374920 372929 373934 374938 379943 381941 382938
      384929 387921 388920

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 041416
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI 15 SE HSI 25 WNW HJH 35 SW FNB 30 NE MKC 15 NE DMO AIZ
15 NNE SGF 10 SE JLN 20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS
20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NE
INTO EASTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST MO TO THE NORTHEAST TO COVER  AREAS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHERN MO WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING IN A WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL--WITH ALL SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
WEAKENING BY THIS TIME.  THIS VERY WELL MAY STILL BE THE
TREND--BUT DELAYED FOR A FEW HOURS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING---2"+
AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE.  SEE WPC MPD # 0420 VALID UNTIL 1500
UTC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.  THIS MPD MAY BE UPDATED SHORTLY IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES.

ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OR THE LOWER NC COAST.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 041416
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI 15 SE HSI 25 WNW HJH 35 SW FNB 30 NE MKC 15 NE DMO AIZ
15 NNE SGF 10 SE JLN 20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS
20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NE
INTO EASTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST MO TO THE NORTHEAST TO COVER  AREAS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHERN MO WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING IN A WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL--WITH ALL SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
WEAKENING BY THIS TIME.  THIS VERY WELL MAY STILL BE THE
TREND--BUT DELAYED FOR A FEW HOURS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING---2"+
AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE.  SEE WPC MPD # 0420 VALID UNTIL 1500
UTC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.  THIS MPD MAY BE UPDATED SHORTLY IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES.

ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OR THE LOWER NC COAST.

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040918
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
515 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z/06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...AND THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE THE
HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 3+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD
SLOW OR EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS
DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG
THE FRONT FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND THE 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
2.00 INCHES LOCAL RAINFALL MAXIMA. SINCE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES SOUTHEAST
MT...NORTHWEST WY AND WESTERN SD...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ASSIGNED
TO THIS AREA.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WAS COVERED BY A SEE TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST

THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW LEAVING SOUTHWEST CANADA.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED REPLENISHING
OF MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...THIS FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR MODEL REFERENCES HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS PROVIDED A
REASONABLY STARTING POINT GIVEN THEIR GENERAL AGREEMENT YET SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3 THAT HELPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...THUS ADDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THEIR SOLUTIONS
AS WELL.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

DESPITE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A FRONT
MODULATING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING IT...CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...CREATE A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3.  MOST BUT NOT ALL 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOWING TREND CROSSING MISSOURI ON DAY 2...
THUS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION APPEARS REASONABLE
...WITH A SOLUTION ROUGHLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS USED WHILE
EXCLUDING ITS HIGH QPF NEAR THE MID LEVEL CENTER.  BY DAY 3...THE
GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND THUS
IS FLATTER...WEAKER...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOST OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
DEPICT VARIOUS DEGREES OF PHASING AND THUS ARE MORE NORTH.
PHASING IS ALMOST ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ROLE OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.  THUS...PREFER TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF PHASING BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE FORECAST SO MUCH IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE
GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN OTHER MODELS...WITH
ONLY 1 00Z GEFS MEMBER AS FAR NORTH AND DEEP AS THE STRONGER
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BY 72 HOURS.  SO FOR THE DAY 3
QPF...VALUES GENERALLY REPRESENT A GFS APPROACH...
WHILE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE FASTER ECWMF IDEA...ALTHOUGH WITH
LOWER VALUES GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE DEPTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED.  GIVEN
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER...THE AREAS DEPICTED FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND ARE
WORTH HOLDING ONTO FOR AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THIS MODEL CYCLE
UNTIL ANOTHER 1 OR 2 RUNS CAN BE EVALUATED...THUS SUPPORTING
FURTHER CHANGES WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.

...NORTHEAST

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST

OTHER THAN THE 00Z NAM WITH ITS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AND INLAND LOW
MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST...A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS GENERALLY RELIED UPON IN MOST AREAS FOR QPF...RESULTING
IN LOW TO MODERATE BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAINING DEEP
MOISTURE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542197 540200 536200 533201 531196 529191 529183
      528178 526175 521173 518170 511166 509166 508169 505173
      500175 496174 493176 490178 489176 487172 487168 489163
      490160 489153 487148 485143 483141 477137 472130 469126
      468130 465142 459148 454148 451148 450151 445155 439153
      435153 433150 435141 436134 439132 442129 442122 442119
      439117 435118 432121 431126 427137 428146 430156 429166
      428173 426176 422183 418180 417177 419168 420156 418144
      419133 421125 422113 424110 429110 431109 434108 434105
      434100 435094 439086 435079 432073 423059 415041 403029
      392019 385014 381008 377001 374993 373989 368989 362992
      353992 348995 344993 342991 338983 339976 340971 339966
      339960 339949 339943 341938 344930 344925 346921 350912
      353906 359893 361889 361883 361874 364865 363852 361828
      360815 360809 361803 364793 367785 361785 356785 353787
      332806 330809 326810 323812 320816 315825 314828 314834
      311853 308873 310884 313893 313904 312911 306918 303920
      303927 302937 301941 299945 294950 289954 286952 286947
      286937 278923 276919 276913 276900 272881 267862 269853
      272844 273834 275826 274823 270822 266821 264819 258814
      253810 250819 248822 245820 243815 244811 245806 247802
      253797 260792 269799 276800 283803 290803 293795 297789
      300779 308767 314753 318745 323738 334725 340719 343711
      349695 357680 361674 366669 374666 378665 381660 386652
      393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559089 560085 562082 562079 559047 558040
      555033 552028 550021 545011 543007 542005 539005 535002
      529002 516001 498010 491010 487012 481011 477007 471000
      465991 462986 458983 451974 446970 442966 438963 435958
      430950 425942 419932 414919 412915 409910 406905 402901
      398896 395892 393886 391878 387852 385818 384802 384795
      384785 385778 385774 387772 392763 398754 400750 401744
      406733 409729 414725 417725 415731 413737 413742 418743
      420741 422741 418753 417765 416778 414791 410803 414814
      421808 429833 435843 439846 440853 441862 445864 449862
      453859 456854 457847 455839 454835 455830 455823 453818
      450812 446808 440801 439794 440788 440784 441781 444774
      449763 458739 462728 472721 474717 476710 477697 486689
      487685 486678 484675 486672 490667 497657 499653 500645
      501632 495624 492621 490621 480628 474629 468629 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 463173 461169 459167 456167 451170 449171 448170
      446167 443166 439170 434184 433188 430191 426194 420196
      416200 410201 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416222 417220 421215
      426214 433213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194 439189
      444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 288064 283063 279061 272060
      265059 260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 233037 231038
      229044 228049 229055 230061 234065 241071 249078 257084
      274098 289110 292111 295109 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532079 535085 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 489068 491063 490059 488050 484037 476026 470025 466023
      461020 457024 452029 447026 442023 437019 434013 433006
      433997 431989 426978 419966 413956 408944 404929 400916
      394906 381904 375905 373907 371910 368923 364936 361953
      360960 357967 354980 359978 364978 369980 376982 388984
      393986 394988 394991 392998 392002 394006 397010 402014
      407019 411022 416025 421022 423021 426023 428027 428037
      429047 432053 435057 439062 442067 445074 448077 453082
      455083 457087 458096 463097 471098 475095 477089 476081
      479077 483073 489068
 0.25 472658 471652 469650 464653 460656 458659 456665 453672
      448675 446684 444691 441698 442702 446700 451699 452702
      451706 452711 452717 455719 456715 458707 462703 469691
      470687 470682 467674 470666 471659 472658
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 457110 459108 460106
 0.25 446741 444741 440741 437743 436746 435749 435753 436758
      439759 441757 442754 443752 445748 446744 446741
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 392674 388673 384675 379681 370684
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 339737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 325800 331797 337792 348781 353776 355773
      356769 357760 359750 365735 369729 374723 379718 385712
      393703 396698 397693
 0.25 394743 394738 392736 387738 383743 381748 379755 377762
      378767 382768 384765 388761 390755 392750 394743
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298873 298866
      300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 465051 461049 456047 453044 448039
      440033 436033 435037 433042 436047 442052 449056 456061
      462067 467068 470066 472063
 0.50 418017 418010 418005 417001 413997 408995 402993 399995
      396002 399008 403012 407016 412019 414021 417020 418017
 0.50 391748 391746 390744 389742 388743 386744 386745 385747
      383750 382752 382753 382754 382757 382758 384758 386757
      387756 387755 388753 389753 389751 390749 391748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 395949 393940 393936 391932 388927
      384922 379918 376918 375920 373927 368943 366950 365958
      363966 362969 364972 373976 386977 392974 400973 400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354750 354742 353739 351738 345741 342744 338747 335752
      330759 327765 327770 323780 321786 321789 322792 329791
      335789 339787 343783 349776 352765 354753 354750
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 414015 413013 412012 411012 410012 410015 411015 413017
      414015
 1.00 388956 388949 387945 384941 380940 378943 377947 376954
      376961 377965 380968 384966 386963 388956 388956
 1.00 346770 346767 346765 345763 345762 343763 341765 341766
      340767 339769 338769 337771 337772 336773 337775 337776
      339777 341777 343776 344774 345772 346770 346770

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 559079 554053 551041 550035 547031 537014 533008 529002
      524995 517989 514986 512982 513974 512966 511960 511952
      509945 507941 496931 481919 473913 467907 462902 457896
      454893 450893 444894 441896 434902 432904 432911 436923
      440931 445940 446944 445949 444951 441951 437949 431944
      425935 420927 416917 414912 412906 408886 407859 405849
      402838 398830 396826 392822 387816 380811 373808 370806
      364807 362803 362799 362791 364782 365769 366764 368759
      370757 369751 367746 364744 362739 358740 353741 351744
      342759 334772 332782 332789 330795 325801 320809 312804
      309803 303803 292803 283800 277796 274794 269794 259797
      251800 247808 245811 247815 252823 256826 260828 267831
      275833 282836 284841 284846 285861 286866 288871 288879
      286883 284893 282901 280904 280911 284931 285937 288939
      288947 290951 294952 297952 299950 304942 308935 313929
      318925 323919 326918 329919 334919 337921 337925 337931
      337943 341954 343957 344963 346971 349981 350985 355985
      361990 365994 367992 373987 379983 392993 412997 416999
      420003 426009 432016 437025 436035 431042 425048 421057
      424065 427075 425082 424088 422093 421101 417109 416111
      416115 418120 422123 428128 432153 436163 446165 450166
      453163 458158 462151 468145 475140 479135 482125 489121
      490119 491116 491109 487101 486093 487090 492097 496101
      501100 506093 508086 508078 508064 511063 513058 513056
      515054 519054 522057 525063 528071 532081 532088 533096
      534101 534108 535118 539127 542131 545131 548126 552124
      554119 556111 559079
 0.01 540195 542186 543179 540169 537165 532163 529160 527156
      525152 521149 515145 511141 507139 501144 499150 500154
      505162 496166 491173 491178 494182 504186 507189 509193
      513202 518210 521214 525216 530216 533214 536209 537204
      540195
 0.01 508248 510239 508234 504230 503224 501211 497206 493207
      488208 483207 478209 475212 470213 469218 472220 476219
      480221 486223 491227 494230 499241 501247 506249 508248
 0.01 515171 514169 513168 513167 511167 509166 508167 509169
      511170 512172 514173 515171
 0.01 509687 508679 507673 505667 503663 498655 494648 487641
      483640 479640 474631 468626 464625 460625 455632 451641
      449650 446661 439667 438670 439678 438690 438695 441700
      436709 432716 424722 422726 422729 424733 427736 429742
      429747 428757 429763 433766 436765 440763 443763 444764
      447767 451775 454780 457784 459786 462788 473786 479780
      481776 482770 484760 481731 483725 485720 490713 492710
      496707 502701 506699 508694 509687
 0.01 493251 493248 491244 490241 489239 486237 484239 481239
      482242 483246 484249 485251 489252 490251 493251
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 307102 308093 306087 301077 294054 290049 286045 280044
      276046 272059 269061 266061 259059 252052 247049 240048
      235048 230049 227055 227059 229061 233065 236068 245075
      262089 266093 269097 273102 276106 285114 290117 294116
      299113 302110 307102
 0.25 517159 517158 516156 515155 514154 512153 511152 509152
      507153 507154 509156 509157 510158 512158 513159 515158
      517159 517159
 0.25 505001 507996 506992 503989 495984 490985 489988 489991
      491996 492001 481001 475000 475996 479991 480985 477981
      472979 464979 460982 459988 461994 464997 465002 463008
      463021 462025 460030 462035 466037 472038 477037 483038
      487037 494032 497028 500024 503013 503005 505001
 0.25 491952 492946 489942 484937 479933 473930 467927 464927
      462930 461936 462940 466947 472952 477955 482957 486957
      489955 491952
 0.25 460109 460103 458098 455095 451095 448098 444099 441103
      439108 438111 443112 448113 452116 455115 459111 460109
 0.25 450139 449136 447133 445133 443134 441135 439137 439141
      439144 440147 442149 443149 446147 447145 449141 450139
 0.25 408956 408951 406947 402943 396940 395936 396933 400927
      402919 400911 397906 392899 390895 387886 385879 377846
      373842 368843 364849 362856 360863 359872 358890 358901
      358908 354923 353932 352941 355949 358954 362959 366965
      368966 373966 378965 400975 404971 404964 408956
 0.25 361760 362756 361753 356750 353751 349755 345763 340773
      337784 337792 338795 340800 345802 350799 352795 354784
      357772 361762 361760
 0.25 357832 358830 358828 356826 354825 352825 351826 349829
      348831 348833 348835 349837 350838 352838 353837 354837
      355835 356835 357833 357832
 0.25 312873 311858 311854 308848 305842 301838 302835 303831
      303824 303821 299822 298828 299836 301838 298840 296847
      296853 296870 298887 302889 305886 309882 312875 312873
 0.25 298916 298914 298912 297910 297909 295910 293912 294914
      294916 294918 295919 297918 298916
 0.25 282093 283091 283088 282086 282084 281083 280082 279081
      277081 276080 274081 273081 273083 273084 274085 275087
      275088 277089 277090 278092 280093 282093 282093
 0.25 253067 253065 252063 251062 250060 248059 246058 245060
      246061 247062 248063 249064 249065 250067 251067 253067
      253067
 0.50 399963 399961 399959 399956 399954 398953 396952 395952
      393952 391954 389956 389959 389960 389961 390963 391964
      392965 393966 395966 396966 397965 398964 399963
 0.50 393927 392914 391911 389908 385906 380903 373903 367906
      364910 360916 358921 356927 356936 358943 361949 364953
      370955 377947 386940 389936 392929 393927
 0.50 373857 373853 370851 369854 367857 366860 365863 364867
      364869 364872 366874 368874 370871 370867 371862 372860
      373857
 0.50 357759 357757 353755 349760 347765 345772 344779 342786
      342792 346794 349789 350782 351775 353771 356764 357759
 1.00 383925 382919 381916 375912 368915 363921 360927 361936
      364943 367945 372946 377941 381936 380929 383925
 1.50 373923 373922 371921 369921 368922 367923 366924 366925
      365927 366929 366930 367932 368933 370932 371929 373927
      373925 373924 373923

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 546131 546109 545096 542087 538076 533069 528062 526057
      524052 522046 520041 516032 516025 515017 514009 513004
      513994 513989 512980 511975 509970 507967 502954 499947
      503941 506938 509934 505929 495914 490913 487908 486903
      485896 485880 484871 483865 479852 475841 473835 469833
      462832 458833 459840 459854 459860 457863 452859 445854
      443853 441856 438861 436866 436872 438877 439884 440888
      442900 438903 434904 424908 419909 415911 404912 401910
      400907 401904 405896 408885 411873 407856 404844 406834
      410812 412807 412803 410797 410791 414781 415776 413772
      411756 409753 403754 399753 396753 395750 392737 390732
      386730 383728 377729 370732 367733 363733 361731 358734
      354736 352733 349730 347730 342733 339735 336737 331741
      327749 316764 305778 296783 291784 286787 281788 277790
      269794 261804 262816 263820 266823 297835 296846 295851
      293855 289864 288869 289873 291878 292881 294881 298883
      298886 289904 289914 289918 290922 295930 298931 301929
      314918 321913 325915 330916 335917 340917 344929 344937
      347941 351944 353944 357935 361928 364926 367925 373934
      376940 378948 382970 398992 401000 406000 411999 420997
      431993 434993 436995 439999 442007 450024 469048 475055
      477067 483087 487098 489101 492104 495105 496107 497111
      496115 494123 490126 486128 481127 477127 476131 480139
      483148 486151 489152 495151 498154 500157 497158 494159
      493163 491168 492173 498180 510194 514201 520207 523211
      527210 531211 534207 535201 536193 540182 541177 541170
      540164 541157 543152 544144 545134 546131
 0.01 486995 485993 484992 482994 482995 481997 482998 483999
      483000 485000 485997 486995
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      448715 450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702
      469699
 0.01 470108 470103 465100 462099 458096 453095 450097 449102
      451105 454108 457111 462112 466110 469108 470108
 0.01 397234 398231 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224
      390225 389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233
      393234 394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 401211 401206 398202 391197 387195 383192 376187 368181
      365183 362183 362186 364189 369191 375196 382203 388209
      391212 396213 401211
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 337084 334080 329077
      326083 331093 334097 339100 339105 342111 342124 343129
      349130 351125 354122 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327115 325109 321106 312103 307095 302087
      296080 287077 279071 271067 269067 262068 257074 258078
      260084 271097 275105 282112 288118 291121 297123 317125
      319127 322128 328124
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 520077
      518079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523113 522120 524130
      526133 528132
 0.25 506065 506052 505045 504040 499031 494026 491023 486021
      483022 482030 482035 484040 487044 488050 491060 492065
      496069 498070 503070 506065
 0.25 470009 470006 469006 468007 468009 470010 470009
 0.25 471917 472898 471887 469878 465878 459881 455888 453896
      451911 446915 443916 437917 430919 424922 419926 418932
      419936 423937 430935 436933 441931 448932 438936 432937
      428940 423946 420952 417956 415963 418965 421963 426960
      431957 438958 450957 453953 455947 459940 464935 468927
      471917
 0.25 405794 404788 402782 399778 398776 397771 393767 387767
      384762 382754 381750 378749 376751 374756 375764 375778
      377781 379781 386780 391780 393781 393785 389788 383790
      364802 358809 351817 348821 345827 342838 342844 344850
      347854 352856 356859 357867 357873 358880 358885 360891
      360897 358904 359914 360917 363916 368914 371913 375916
      380926 384937 387943 391947 393947 396942 396937 396930
      393923 390918 387913 386910 387906 389904 390898 395887
      396879 396870 394864 390858 387849 390836 390818 392813
      395810 401802 405794
 0.25 368773 368765 366758 364749 361747 354747 350750 347754
      342764 340775 339780 339784 340788 343790 348791 352794
      357796 362794 365789 367777 368773
 0.25 330831 330825 327820 323820 320822 314828 310836 307846
      308858 307862 309867 312869 315869 319865 320861 323851
      326842 329833 330831
 0.25 290091 288087 284085 281082 277080 274078 268078 268081
      271085 274087 276091 280094 283096 287095 290091
 0.25 287816 286812 284810 286808 285805 283804 281805 278806
      274807 273808 271811 271814 273816 275817 279817 281817
      285818 287816
 0.50 390801 389799 386799 381802 378807 376812 373817 370823
      372828 374830 378828 378821 378817 379814 384810 387806
      390801
 0.50 388883 389878 388873 384874 382877 377883 372887 367893
      364899 362904 363909 366910 369908 375907 377909 379907
      380902 382900 385893 386887 388884 388883
 0.50 362767 361760 358759 353759 351762 350767 350773 352778
      353784 355785 358784 359781 361776 362769 362767
 0.50 356839 357837 355837 354839 355839 356839

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040918
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
515 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z/06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...AND THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE THE
HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 3+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD
SLOW OR EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS
DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG
THE FRONT FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND THE 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
2.00 INCHES LOCAL RAINFALL MAXIMA. SINCE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES SOUTHEAST
MT...NORTHWEST WY AND WESTERN SD...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ASSIGNED
TO THIS AREA.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WAS COVERED BY A SEE TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST

THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW LEAVING SOUTHWEST CANADA.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED REPLENISHING
OF MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...THIS FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR MODEL REFERENCES HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS PROVIDED A
REASONABLY STARTING POINT GIVEN THEIR GENERAL AGREEMENT YET SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3 THAT HELPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...THUS ADDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THEIR SOLUTIONS
AS WELL.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

DESPITE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A FRONT
MODULATING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING IT...CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...CREATE A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3.  MOST BUT NOT ALL 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOWING TREND CROSSING MISSOURI ON DAY 2...
THUS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION APPEARS REASONABLE
...WITH A SOLUTION ROUGHLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS USED WHILE
EXCLUDING ITS HIGH QPF NEAR THE MID LEVEL CENTER.  BY DAY 3...THE
GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND THUS
IS FLATTER...WEAKER...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOST OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
DEPICT VARIOUS DEGREES OF PHASING AND THUS ARE MORE NORTH.
PHASING IS ALMOST ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ROLE OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.  THUS...PREFER TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF PHASING BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE FORECAST SO MUCH IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE
GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN OTHER MODELS...WITH
ONLY 1 00Z GEFS MEMBER AS FAR NORTH AND DEEP AS THE STRONGER
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BY 72 HOURS.  SO FOR THE DAY 3
QPF...VALUES GENERALLY REPRESENT A GFS APPROACH...
WHILE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE FASTER ECWMF IDEA...ALTHOUGH WITH
LOWER VALUES GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE DEPTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED.  GIVEN
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER...THE AREAS DEPICTED FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND ARE
WORTH HOLDING ONTO FOR AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THIS MODEL CYCLE
UNTIL ANOTHER 1 OR 2 RUNS CAN BE EVALUATED...THUS SUPPORTING
FURTHER CHANGES WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.

...NORTHEAST

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST

OTHER THAN THE 00Z NAM WITH ITS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AND INLAND LOW
MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST...A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS GENERALLY RELIED UPON IN MOST AREAS FOR QPF...RESULTING
IN LOW TO MODERATE BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAINING DEEP
MOISTURE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542197 540200 536200 533201 531196 529191 529183
      528178 526175 521173 518170 511166 509166 508169 505173
      500175 496174 493176 490178 489176 487172 487168 489163
      490160 489153 487148 485143 483141 477137 472130 469126
      468130 465142 459148 454148 451148 450151 445155 439153
      435153 433150 435141 436134 439132 442129 442122 442119
      439117 435118 432121 431126 427137 428146 430156 429166
      428173 426176 422183 418180 417177 419168 420156 418144
      419133 421125 422113 424110 429110 431109 434108 434105
      434100 435094 439086 435079 432073 423059 415041 403029
      392019 385014 381008 377001 374993 373989 368989 362992
      353992 348995 344993 342991 338983 339976 340971 339966
      339960 339949 339943 341938 344930 344925 346921 350912
      353906 359893 361889 361883 361874 364865 363852 361828
      360815 360809 361803 364793 367785 361785 356785 353787
      332806 330809 326810 323812 320816 315825 314828 314834
      311853 308873 310884 313893 313904 312911 306918 303920
      303927 302937 301941 299945 294950 289954 286952 286947
      286937 278923 276919 276913 276900 272881 267862 269853
      272844 273834 275826 274823 270822 266821 264819 258814
      253810 250819 248822 245820 243815 244811 245806 247802
      253797 260792 269799 276800 283803 290803 293795 297789
      300779 308767 314753 318745 323738 334725 340719 343711
      349695 357680 361674 366669 374666 378665 381660 386652
      393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559089 560085 562082 562079 559047 558040
      555033 552028 550021 545011 543007 542005 539005 535002
      529002 516001 498010 491010 487012 481011 477007 471000
      465991 462986 458983 451974 446970 442966 438963 435958
      430950 425942 419932 414919 412915 409910 406905 402901
      398896 395892 393886 391878 387852 385818 384802 384795
      384785 385778 385774 387772 392763 398754 400750 401744
      406733 409729 414725 417725 415731 413737 413742 418743
      420741 422741 418753 417765 416778 414791 410803 414814
      421808 429833 435843 439846 440853 441862 445864 449862
      453859 456854 457847 455839 454835 455830 455823 453818
      450812 446808 440801 439794 440788 440784 441781 444774
      449763 458739 462728 472721 474717 476710 477697 486689
      487685 486678 484675 486672 490667 497657 499653 500645
      501632 495624 492621 490621 480628 474629 468629 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 463173 461169 459167 456167 451170 449171 448170
      446167 443166 439170 434184 433188 430191 426194 420196
      416200 410201 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416222 417220 421215
      426214 433213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194 439189
      444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 288064 283063 279061 272060
      265059 260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 233037 231038
      229044 228049 229055 230061 234065 241071 249078 257084
      274098 289110 292111 295109 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532079 535085 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 489068 491063 490059 488050 484037 476026 470025 466023
      461020 457024 452029 447026 442023 437019 434013 433006
      433997 431989 426978 419966 413956 408944 404929 400916
      394906 381904 375905 373907 371910 368923 364936 361953
      360960 357967 354980 359978 364978 369980 376982 388984
      393986 394988 394991 392998 392002 394006 397010 402014
      407019 411022 416025 421022 423021 426023 428027 428037
      429047 432053 435057 439062 442067 445074 448077 453082
      455083 457087 458096 463097 471098 475095 477089 476081
      479077 483073 489068
 0.25 472658 471652 469650 464653 460656 458659 456665 453672
      448675 446684 444691 441698 442702 446700 451699 452702
      451706 452711 452717 455719 456715 458707 462703 469691
      470687 470682 467674 470666 471659 472658
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 457110 459108 460106
 0.25 446741 444741 440741 437743 436746 435749 435753 436758
      439759 441757 442754 443752 445748 446744 446741
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 392674 388673 384675 379681 370684
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 339737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 325800 331797 337792 348781 353776 355773
      356769 357760 359750 365735 369729 374723 379718 385712
      393703 396698 397693
 0.25 394743 394738 392736 387738 383743 381748 379755 377762
      378767 382768 384765 388761 390755 392750 394743
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298873 298866
      300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 465051 461049 456047 453044 448039
      440033 436033 435037 433042 436047 442052 449056 456061
      462067 467068 470066 472063
 0.50 418017 418010 418005 417001 413997 408995 402993 399995
      396002 399008 403012 407016 412019 414021 417020 418017
 0.50 391748 391746 390744 389742 388743 386744 386745 385747
      383750 382752 382753 382754 382757 382758 384758 386757
      387756 387755 388753 389753 389751 390749 391748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 395949 393940 393936 391932 388927
      384922 379918 376918 375920 373927 368943 366950 365958
      363966 362969 364972 373976 386977 392974 400973 400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354750 354742 353739 351738 345741 342744 338747 335752
      330759 327765 327770 323780 321786 321789 322792 329791
      335789 339787 343783 349776 352765 354753 354750
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 414015 413013 412012 411012 410012 410015 411015 413017
      414015
 1.00 388956 388949 387945 384941 380940 378943 377947 376954
      376961 377965 380968 384966 386963 388956 388956
 1.00 346770 346767 346765 345763 345762 343763 341765 341766
      340767 339769 338769 337771 337772 336773 337775 337776
      339777 341777 343776 344774 345772 346770 346770

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 559079 554053 551041 550035 547031 537014 533008 529002
      524995 517989 514986 512982 513974 512966 511960 511952
      509945 507941 496931 481919 473913 467907 462902 457896
      454893 450893 444894 441896 434902 432904 432911 436923
      440931 445940 446944 445949 444951 441951 437949 431944
      425935 420927 416917 414912 412906 408886 407859 405849
      402838 398830 396826 392822 387816 380811 373808 370806
      364807 362803 362799 362791 364782 365769 366764 368759
      370757 369751 367746 364744 362739 358740 353741 351744
      342759 334772 332782 332789 330795 325801 320809 312804
      309803 303803 292803 283800 277796 274794 269794 259797
      251800 247808 245811 247815 252823 256826 260828 267831
      275833 282836 284841 284846 285861 286866 288871 288879
      286883 284893 282901 280904 280911 284931 285937 288939
      288947 290951 294952 297952 299950 304942 308935 313929
      318925 323919 326918 329919 334919 337921 337925 337931
      337943 341954 343957 344963 346971 349981 350985 355985
      361990 365994 367992 373987 379983 392993 412997 416999
      420003 426009 432016 437025 436035 431042 425048 421057
      424065 427075 425082 424088 422093 421101 417109 416111
      416115 418120 422123 428128 432153 436163 446165 450166
      453163 458158 462151 468145 475140 479135 482125 489121
      490119 491116 491109 487101 486093 487090 492097 496101
      501100 506093 508086 508078 508064 511063 513058 513056
      515054 519054 522057 525063 528071 532081 532088 533096
      534101 534108 535118 539127 542131 545131 548126 552124
      554119 556111 559079
 0.01 540195 542186 543179 540169 537165 532163 529160 527156
      525152 521149 515145 511141 507139 501144 499150 500154
      505162 496166 491173 491178 494182 504186 507189 509193
      513202 518210 521214 525216 530216 533214 536209 537204
      540195
 0.01 508248 510239 508234 504230 503224 501211 497206 493207
      488208 483207 478209 475212 470213 469218 472220 476219
      480221 486223 491227 494230 499241 501247 506249 508248
 0.01 515171 514169 513168 513167 511167 509166 508167 509169
      511170 512172 514173 515171
 0.01 509687 508679 507673 505667 503663 498655 494648 487641
      483640 479640 474631 468626 464625 460625 455632 451641
      449650 446661 439667 438670 439678 438690 438695 441700
      436709 432716 424722 422726 422729 424733 427736 429742
      429747 428757 429763 433766 436765 440763 443763 444764
      447767 451775 454780 457784 459786 462788 473786 479780
      481776 482770 484760 481731 483725 485720 490713 492710
      496707 502701 506699 508694 509687
 0.01 493251 493248 491244 490241 489239 486237 484239 481239
      482242 483246 484249 485251 489252 490251 493251
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 307102 308093 306087 301077 294054 290049 286045 280044
      276046 272059 269061 266061 259059 252052 247049 240048
      235048 230049 227055 227059 229061 233065 236068 245075
      262089 266093 269097 273102 276106 285114 290117 294116
      299113 302110 307102
 0.25 517159 517158 516156 515155 514154 512153 511152 509152
      507153 507154 509156 509157 510158 512158 513159 515158
      517159 517159
 0.25 505001 507996 506992 503989 495984 490985 489988 489991
      491996 492001 481001 475000 475996 479991 480985 477981
      472979 464979 460982 459988 461994 464997 465002 463008
      463021 462025 460030 462035 466037 472038 477037 483038
      487037 494032 497028 500024 503013 503005 505001
 0.25 491952 492946 489942 484937 479933 473930 467927 464927
      462930 461936 462940 466947 472952 477955 482957 486957
      489955 491952
 0.25 460109 460103 458098 455095 451095 448098 444099 441103
      439108 438111 443112 448113 452116 455115 459111 460109
 0.25 450139 449136 447133 445133 443134 441135 439137 439141
      439144 440147 442149 443149 446147 447145 449141 450139
 0.25 408956 408951 406947 402943 396940 395936 396933 400927
      402919 400911 397906 392899 390895 387886 385879 377846
      373842 368843 364849 362856 360863 359872 358890 358901
      358908 354923 353932 352941 355949 358954 362959 366965
      368966 373966 378965 400975 404971 404964 408956
 0.25 361760 362756 361753 356750 353751 349755 345763 340773
      337784 337792 338795 340800 345802 350799 352795 354784
      357772 361762 361760
 0.25 357832 358830 358828 356826 354825 352825 351826 349829
      348831 348833 348835 349837 350838 352838 353837 354837
      355835 356835 357833 357832
 0.25 312873 311858 311854 308848 305842 301838 302835 303831
      303824 303821 299822 298828 299836 301838 298840 296847
      296853 296870 298887 302889 305886 309882 312875 312873
 0.25 298916 298914 298912 297910 297909 295910 293912 294914
      294916 294918 295919 297918 298916
 0.25 282093 283091 283088 282086 282084 281083 280082 279081
      277081 276080 274081 273081 273083 273084 274085 275087
      275088 277089 277090 278092 280093 282093 282093
 0.25 253067 253065 252063 251062 250060 248059 246058 245060
      246061 247062 248063 249064 249065 250067 251067 253067
      253067
 0.50 399963 399961 399959 399956 399954 398953 396952 395952
      393952 391954 389956 389959 389960 389961 390963 391964
      392965 393966 395966 396966 397965 398964 399963
 0.50 393927 392914 391911 389908 385906 380903 373903 367906
      364910 360916 358921 356927 356936 358943 361949 364953
      370955 377947 386940 389936 392929 393927
 0.50 373857 373853 370851 369854 367857 366860 365863 364867
      364869 364872 366874 368874 370871 370867 371862 372860
      373857
 0.50 357759 357757 353755 349760 347765 345772 344779 342786
      342792 346794 349789 350782 351775 353771 356764 357759
 1.00 383925 382919 381916 375912 368915 363921 360927 361936
      364943 367945 372946 377941 381936 380929 383925
 1.50 373923 373922 371921 369921 368922 367923 366924 366925
      365927 366929 366930 367932 368933 370932 371929 373927
      373925 373924 373923

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 546131 546109 545096 542087 538076 533069 528062 526057
      524052 522046 520041 516032 516025 515017 514009 513004
      513994 513989 512980 511975 509970 507967 502954 499947
      503941 506938 509934 505929 495914 490913 487908 486903
      485896 485880 484871 483865 479852 475841 473835 469833
      462832 458833 459840 459854 459860 457863 452859 445854
      443853 441856 438861 436866 436872 438877 439884 440888
      442900 438903 434904 424908 419909 415911 404912 401910
      400907 401904 405896 408885 411873 407856 404844 406834
      410812 412807 412803 410797 410791 414781 415776 413772
      411756 409753 403754 399753 396753 395750 392737 390732
      386730 383728 377729 370732 367733 363733 361731 358734
      354736 352733 349730 347730 342733 339735 336737 331741
      327749 316764 305778 296783 291784 286787 281788 277790
      269794 261804 262816 263820 266823 297835 296846 295851
      293855 289864 288869 289873 291878 292881 294881 298883
      298886 289904 289914 289918 290922 295930 298931 301929
      314918 321913 325915 330916 335917 340917 344929 344937
      347941 351944 353944 357935 361928 364926 367925 373934
      376940 378948 382970 398992 401000 406000 411999 420997
      431993 434993 436995 439999 442007 450024 469048 475055
      477067 483087 487098 489101 492104 495105 496107 497111
      496115 494123 490126 486128 481127 477127 476131 480139
      483148 486151 489152 495151 498154 500157 497158 494159
      493163 491168 492173 498180 510194 514201 520207 523211
      527210 531211 534207 535201 536193 540182 541177 541170
      540164 541157 543152 544144 545134 546131
 0.01 486995 485993 484992 482994 482995 481997 482998 483999
      483000 485000 485997 486995
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      448715 450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702
      469699
 0.01 470108 470103 465100 462099 458096 453095 450097 449102
      451105 454108 457111 462112 466110 469108 470108
 0.01 397234 398231 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224
      390225 389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233
      393234 394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 401211 401206 398202 391197 387195 383192 376187 368181
      365183 362183 362186 364189 369191 375196 382203 388209
      391212 396213 401211
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 337084 334080 329077
      326083 331093 334097 339100 339105 342111 342124 343129
      349130 351125 354122 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327115 325109 321106 312103 307095 302087
      296080 287077 279071 271067 269067 262068 257074 258078
      260084 271097 275105 282112 288118 291121 297123 317125
      319127 322128 328124
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 520077
      518079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523113 522120 524130
      526133 528132
 0.25 506065 506052 505045 504040 499031 494026 491023 486021
      483022 482030 482035 484040 487044 488050 491060 492065
      496069 498070 503070 506065
 0.25 470009 470006 469006 468007 468009 470010 470009
 0.25 471917 472898 471887 469878 465878 459881 455888 453896
      451911 446915 443916 437917 430919 424922 419926 418932
      419936 423937 430935 436933 441931 448932 438936 432937
      428940 423946 420952 417956 415963 418965 421963 426960
      431957 438958 450957 453953 455947 459940 464935 468927
      471917
 0.25 405794 404788 402782 399778 398776 397771 393767 387767
      384762 382754 381750 378749 376751 374756 375764 375778
      377781 379781 386780 391780 393781 393785 389788 383790
      364802 358809 351817 348821 345827 342838 342844 344850
      347854 352856 356859 357867 357873 358880 358885 360891
      360897 358904 359914 360917 363916 368914 371913 375916
      380926 384937 387943 391947 393947 396942 396937 396930
      393923 390918 387913 386910 387906 389904 390898 395887
      396879 396870 394864 390858 387849 390836 390818 392813
      395810 401802 405794
 0.25 368773 368765 366758 364749 361747 354747 350750 347754
      342764 340775 339780 339784 340788 343790 348791 352794
      357796 362794 365789 367777 368773
 0.25 330831 330825 327820 323820 320822 314828 310836 307846
      308858 307862 309867 312869 315869 319865 320861 323851
      326842 329833 330831
 0.25 290091 288087 284085 281082 277080 274078 268078 268081
      271085 274087 276091 280094 283096 287095 290091
 0.25 287816 286812 284810 286808 285805 283804 281805 278806
      274807 273808 271811 271814 273816 275817 279817 281817
      285818 287816
 0.50 390801 389799 386799 381802 378807 376812 373817 370823
      372828 374830 378828 378821 378817 379814 384810 387806
      390801
 0.50 388883 389878 388873 384874 382877 377883 372887 367893
      364899 362904 363909 366910 369908 375907 377909 379907
      380902 382900 385893 386887 388884 388883
 0.50 362767 361760 358759 353759 351762 350767 350773 352778
      353784 355785 358784 359781 361776 362769 362767
 0.50 356839 357837 355837 354839 355839 356839

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040816
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW HLC 30 NW HLC 20 SSE MCK 10 WNW MCK 25 NNW MCK 30 N MCK
20 SSE LBF 20 SE LBF 25 ESE LBF 10 NNW LXN 20 ENE LXN EAR
15 W HSI 15 SE HSI 25 WNW HJH 35 SW FNB 30 NE MKC 15 NE DMO AIZ
15 NNE SGF 10 SE JLN 20 NW GMJ 20 SSW BVO 20 WSW WLD 10 N HYS
20 NW HLC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S JDN 20 E JDN 35 S OLF 10 NE GDV 30 SE BHK 40 SSE 2WX
25 E RCA 30 SE RAP 30 NW IEN 35 NNW CDR 30 SSW CUT 35 SW CUT
50 WSW CUT 20 N GCC 55 S JDN.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MT ACROSS WESTERN SD. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MOS AND
EASTERN NE SHOULD START TO WEAKENING TOWARD 04/12Z...AS THE
REMAINING MUCAPE IS EXHAUSTED. THE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST
THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
12Z OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB...SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER...BUT
HIS WILL BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE..THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR
05/06Z OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS
TRANSPORTED ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE
00Z NAM IS ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS
ACROSS NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL BE RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC COAST.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE COVERED BY  SEE TEXT...MAINLY
FOR THIS MORNING...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

HAYES
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040705
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST

THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW LEAVING SOUTHWEST CANADA.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED REPLENISHING
OF MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...THIS FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR MODEL REFERENCES HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS PROVIDED A
REASONABLY STARTING POINT GIVEN THEIR GENERAL AGREEMENT YET SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3 THAT HELPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...THUS ADDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THEIR SOLUTIONS
AS WELL.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

DESPITE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A FRONT
MODULATING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING IT...CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...CREATE A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3.  MOST BUT NOT ALL 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOWING TREND CROSSING MISSOURI ON DAY 2...
THUS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION APPEARS REASONABLE
...WITH A SOLUTION ROUGHLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS USED WHILE
EXCLUDING ITS HIGH QPF NEAR THE MID LEVEL CENTER.  BY DAY 3...THE
GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND THUS
IS FLATTER...WEAKER...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOST OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
DEPICT VARIOUS DEGREES OF PHASING AND THUS ARE MORE NORTH.
PHASING IS ALMOST ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ROLE OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.  THUS...PREFER TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF PHASING BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE FORECAST SO MUCH IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE
GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN OTHER MODELS...WITH
ONLY 1 00Z GEFS MEMBER AS FAR NORTH AND DEEP AS THE STRONGER
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BY 72 HOURS.  SO FOR THE DAY 3
QPF...VALUES GENERALLY REPRESENT A GFS APPROACH...
WHILE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE FASTER ECWMF IDEA...ALTHOUGH WITH
LOWER VALUES GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE DEPTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED.  GIVEN
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER...THE AREAS DEPICTED FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND ARE
WORTH HOLDING ONTO FOR AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THIS MODEL CYCLE
UNTIL ANOTHER 1 OR 2 RUNS CAN BE EVALUATED...THUS SUPPORTING
FURTHER CHANGES WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.

...NORTHEAST

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST

OTHER THAN THE 00Z NAM WITH ITS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AND INLAND LOW
MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST...A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS GENERALLY RELIED UPON IN MOST AREAS FOR QPF...RESULTING
IN LOW TO MODERATE BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAINING DEEP
MOISTURE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 559079 555058 553047 551039 542022 537013 531005 519990
      515987 513985 512980 513976 513972 512963 511958 511950
      507942 496931 484921 478917 472912 467907 461901 455893
      450893 445893 438898 435900 432904 432911 434916 437924
      441935 446944 445950 441952 439950 431944 426937 422930
      418923 415916 413911 412904 410893 408880 407866 406853
      404843 394824 388817 384813 380812 373808 369806 364807
      362801 362794 363784 365777 365771 366768 367763 368759
      370755 369750 366746 363742 362739 359740 353741 351744
      349750 343757 338765 334774 332784 332789 330794 328798
      325801 320809 314804 311803 307803 297803 290803 281799
      274794 269794 263796 256799 251800 249802 246810 249817
      254824 258828 263829 271832 280836 284838 284846 285858
      286867 288872 288877 286885 280905 281915 282926 284936
      287938 288944 288950 292952 297952 299950 310933 317926
      323919 328918 331919 336920 337926 337937 337943 339945
      345966 350985 354985 358987 365994 377983 380983 384987
      392993 412997 418001 424007 429012 433018 438027 434037
      429044 426048 424052 422059 426070 427076 425082 424088
      422093 416114 417119 421122 428128 431149 433157 437163
      447166 450166 454163 460156 466148 472143 477137 481130
      482126 484123 488121 490119 491112 490106 487101 486089
      489092 492097 495100 500101 504095 508088 508076 507069
      509064 511063 515054 519054 522057 527066 528072 531077
      533092 535118 539127 542131 545130 548127 552124 554121
      556111 559079
 0.01 540195 543180 541173 540169 537166 533163 530161 527156
      525153 522149 515145 512141 507139 504141 501144 499148
      500154 505162 496166 492172 491178 494182 503185 507189
      509193 513202 518210 520213 525216 530217 533214 535210
      537205 540195
 0.01 508248 510240 508234 504231 503224 501211 498207 493207
      489208 483207 479208 475212 470212 469218 472220 476219
      480221 486223 491226 494230 499241 501246 506249 508248
 0.01 515171 514169 513168 513167 511167 509166 508167 509169
      511170 512172 514173 515171
 0.01 509687 507674 504664 494648 488642 485639 480641 477637
      474632 468626 462625 458627 456631 451640 449650 447660
      441666 438670 439676 439680 439684 438690 439698 441701
      439704 437708 432716 424722 421728 423732 426735 428741
      430743 429747 428757 429762 431765 434766 438764 441763
      444763 447766 451775 455782 461788 472786 479780 481773
      484761 483747 481731 484722 489714 496707 502701 505699
      507695 509687
 0.01 493251 493248 491244 490241 489239 486237 484239 481239
      482242 483246 484249 485251 489252 490251 493251
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 307102 307095 306088 301077 298066 294054 291049 286046
      281044 276046 274051 272058 270061 267061 259059 252052
      247049 240048 236047 230049 227054 227058 229061 236067
      245075 262089 266092 268097 276106 284113 290117 294116
      298114 302110 307102
 0.25 517159 517158 516156 515155 514154 512153 511152 509152
      507153 507154 509156 509157 510158 512158 513159 515158
      517159 517159
 0.25 505001 506994 503989 495984 491984 489986 489990 491996
      492001 482001 475000 475996 478992 480987 478981 472979
      465979 460982 459988 460993 464997 465998 465002 463008
      463021 462025 460030 462034 466036 471038 477037 482038
      486037 490035 494032 499025 503013 502005 505001
 0.25 491952 492946 489942 484937 479933 473930 467927 464927
      462930 461936 462940 466947 472952 477955 481957 486957
      489955 491952
 0.25 460109 460103 458098 455095 451095 448098 444099 441103
      439108 438111 443112 448113 452116 455115 459111 460109
 0.25 450139 449136 447133 445133 443134 441135 439137 439141
      439144 440147 442149 443149 446147 447145 449141 450139
 0.25 408956 408952 407949 403944 396940 395936 396933 400928
      402921 401912 397906 390895 387887 385879 381865 380853
      377846 374842 371841 368842 364848 362856 360862 359871
      358879 358890 358906 356915 354923 352940 354948 358954
      365964 368966 372966 375965 378965 389970 394975 397977
      400975 408956
 0.25 361760 362757 361753 356750 354751 349755 345763 340773
      337784 337791 338795 340800 345802 350800 352795 354784
      357772 361762 361760
 0.25 357832 358830 358828 356826 354825 352825 351826 349829
      348831 348833 348835 349837 350838 352838 353837 354837
      355835 356835 357833 357832
 0.25 312873 312865 311858 311854 308848 305842 301838 303832
      303824 303822 300822 298824 298828 299836 301838 298840
      297846 296849 296853 296870 298887 301889 305886 309882
      312875 312873
 0.25 298916 298914 298912 297910 297909 295910 293912 294914
      294916 294918 295919 297918 298916
 0.25 282093 283091 283088 282086 282084 281083 280082 279081
      277081 276080 274081 273081 273083 273084 274085 275087
      275088 277089 277090 278092 280093 282093 282093
 0.25 253067 253065 252063 251062 250060 248059 246058 245060
      246061 247062 248063 249064 249065 250067 251067 253067
      253067
 0.50 399963 399961 399959 399956 399954 398953 396952 395952
      393952 391954 389956 389959 389960 389961 390963 391964
      392965 393966 395966 396966 397965 398964 399963
 0.50 393927 392914 389909 385906 380903 376902 373903 368906
      364910 361915 358921 356927 356936 358942 361949 364953
      370955 377947 386940 389936 392929 393927
 0.50 373857 373853 370851 369854 367857 366860 365863 364867
      364869 364872 366874 368874 370871 370867 371862 372860
      373857
 0.50 357759 357757 353755 349760 347765 345772 344779 342786
      342792 346794 349789 350782 351775 353771 356764 357759
 1.00 383925 382919 381916 375912 368915 363921 360927 361936
      364943 367945 372946 377941 381936 380929 383925
 1.50 373923 373922 371921 369921 368922 367923 366924 366925
      365927 366929 366930 367932 368933 370932 371929 373927
      373925 373924 373923

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 546131 546109 545096 542087 538076 533069 528062 526057
      524052 522046 520041 516032 516025 515017 514009 513004
      513994 513989 512980 511975 509970 507967 502954 499947
      503941 506938 509934 505929 495914 490913 487908 486903
      485896 485880 484871 483865 479852 475841 473835 469833
      462832 458833 459840 459854 459860 457863 452859 445854
      443853 441856 438861 436866 436872 438877 439884 440888
      442900 438903 434904 424908 419909 415911 404912 401910
      400907 401904 405896 408885 411873 407856 404844 406834
      410812 412807 412803 410797 410791 414781 415776 413772
      411756 409753 403754 399753 396753 395750 392737 390732
      386730 383728 377729 370732 367733 363733 361731 358734
      354736 352733 349730 347730 342733 339735 336737 331741
      327749 316764 305778 296783 291784 286787 281788 277790
      269794 261804 262816 263820 266823 297835 296846 295851
      293855 289864 288869 289873 291878 292881 294881 298883
      298886 289904 289914 289918 290922 295930 298931 301929
      314918 321913 325915 330916 335917 340917 344929 344937
      347941 351944 353944 357935 361928 364926 367925 373934
      376940 378948 382970 398992 401000 406000 411999 420997
      431993 434993 436995 439999 442007 450024 469048 475055
      477067 483087 487098 489101 492104 495105 496107 497111
      496115 494123 490126 486128 481127 477127 476131 480139
      483148 486151 489152 495151 498154 500157 497158 494159
      493163 491168 492173 498180 510194 514201 520207 523211
      527210 531211 534207 535201 536193 540182 541177 541170
      540164 541157 543152 544144 545134 546131
 0.01 486995 485993 484992 482994 482995 481997 482998 483999
      483000 485000 485997 486995
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      448715 450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702
      469699
 0.01 470108 470103 465100 462099 458096 453095 450097 449102
      451105 454108 457111 462112 466110 469108 470108
 0.01 397234 398231 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224
      390225 389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233
      393234 394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 401211 401206 398202 391197 387195 383192 376187 368181
      365183 362183 362186 364189 369191 375196 382203 388209
      391212 396213 401211
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 337084 334080 329077
      326083 331093 334097 339100 339105 342111 342124 343129
      349130 351125 354122 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327115 325109 321106 312103 307095 302087
      296080 287077 279071 271067 269067 262068 257074 258078
      260084 271097 275105 282112 288118 291121 297123 317125
      319127 322128 328124
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 520077
      518079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523113 522120 524130
      526133 528132
 0.25 506065 506052 505045 504040 499031 494026 491023 486021
      483022 482030 482035 484040 487044 488050 491060 492065
      496069 498070 503070 506065
 0.25 470009 470006 469006 468007 468009 470010 470009
 0.25 471917 472898 471887 469878 465878 459881 455888 453896
      451911 446915 443916 437917 430919 424922 419926 418932
      419936 423937 430935 436933 441931 448932 438936 432937
      428940 423946 420952 417956 415963 418965 421963 426960
      431957 438958 450957 453953 455947 459940 464935 468927
      471917
 0.25 405794 404788 402782 399778 398776 397771 393767 387767
      384762 382754 381750 378749 376751 374756 375764 375778
      377781 379781 386780 391780 393781 393785 389788 383790
      364802 358809 351817 348821 345827 342838 342844 344850
      347854 352856 356859 357867 357873 358880 358885 360891
      360897 358904 359914 360917 363916 368914 371913 375916
      380926 384937 387943 391947 393947 396942 396937 396930
      393923 390918 387913 386910 387906 389904 390898 395887
      396879 396870 394864 390858 387849 390836 390818 392813
      395810 401802 405794
 0.25 368773 368765 366758 364749 361747 354747 350750 347754
      342764 340775 339780 339784 340788 343790 348791 352794
      357796 362794 365789 367777 368773
 0.25 330831 330825 327820 323820 320822 314828 310836 307846
      308858 307862 309867 312869 315869 319865 320861 323851
      326842 329833 330831
 0.25 290091 288087 284085 281082 277080 274078 268078 268081
      271085 274087 276091 280094 283096 287095 290091
 0.25 287816 286812 284810 286808 285805 283804 281805 278806
      274807 273808 271811 271814 273816 275817 279817 281817
      285818 287816
 0.50 390801 389799 386799 381802 378807 376812 373817 370823
      372828 374830 378828 378821 378817 379814 384810 387806
      390801
 0.50 388883 389878 388873 384874 382877 377883 372887 367893
      364899 362904 363909 366910 369908 375907 377909 379907
      380902 382900 385893 386887 388884 388883
 0.50 362767 361760 358759 353759 351762 350767 350773 352778
      353784 355785 358784 359781 361776 362769 362767
 0.50 356839 357837 355837 354839 355839 356839

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 040705
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST

THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW LEAVING SOUTHWEST CANADA.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED REPLENISHING
OF MODESTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...THIS FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR MODEL REFERENCES HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS PROVIDED A
REASONABLY STARTING POINT GIVEN THEIR GENERAL AGREEMENT YET SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3 THAT HELPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...THUS ADDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THEIR SOLUTIONS
AS WELL.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

DESPITE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A FRONT
MODULATING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING IT...CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD WITH MODEL
DETAILS...VARIOUS RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITIES...AND SUSPECT PHASING
OF MULTIPLE TROUGHS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE...CREATE A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR DAYS 2/3.  MOST BUT NOT ALL 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOWING TREND CROSSING MISSOURI ON DAY 2...
THUS AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION APPEARS REASONABLE
...WITH A SOLUTION ROUGHLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS USED WHILE
EXCLUDING ITS HIGH QPF NEAR THE MID LEVEL CENTER.  BY DAY 3...THE
GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND THUS
IS FLATTER...WEAKER...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOST OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS
DEPICT VARIOUS DEGREES OF PHASING AND THUS ARE MORE NORTH.
PHASING IS ALMOST ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ROLE OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.  THUS...PREFER TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF PHASING BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE FORECAST SO MUCH IN ANOTHER DIRECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE
GFS SHOWS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN OTHER MODELS...WITH
ONLY 1 00Z GEFS MEMBER AS FAR NORTH AND DEEP AS THE STRONGER
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BY 72 HOURS.  SO FOR THE DAY 3
QPF...VALUES GENERALLY REPRESENT A GFS APPROACH...
WHILE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE FASTER ECWMF IDEA...ALTHOUGH WITH
LOWER VALUES GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE DEPTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED.  GIVEN
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER...THE AREAS DEPICTED FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND ARE
WORTH HOLDING ONTO FOR AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THIS MODEL CYCLE
UNTIL ANOTHER 1 OR 2 RUNS CAN BE EVALUATED...THUS SUPPORTING
FURTHER CHANGES WITH MORE CONFIDENCE.

...NORTHEAST

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST

OTHER THAN THE 00Z NAM WITH ITS SUSPICIOUSLY DEEP AND INLAND LOW
MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST...A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS GENERALLY RELIED UPON IN MOST AREAS FOR QPF...RESULTING
IN LOW TO MODERATE BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAINING DEEP
MOISTURE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 559079 555058 553047 551039 542022 537013 531005 519990
      515987 513985 512980 513976 513972 512963 511958 511950
      507942 496931 484921 478917 472912 467907 461901 455893
      450893 445893 438898 435900 432904 432911 434916 437924
      441935 446944 445950 441952 439950 431944 426937 422930
      418923 415916 413911 412904 410893 408880 407866 406853
      404843 394824 388817 384813 380812 373808 369806 364807
      362801 362794 363784 365777 365771 366768 367763 368759
      370755 369750 366746 363742 362739 359740 353741 351744
      349750 343757 338765 334774 332784 332789 330794 328798
      325801 320809 314804 311803 307803 297803 290803 281799
      274794 269794 263796 256799 251800 249802 246810 249817
      254824 258828 263829 271832 280836 284838 284846 285858
      286867 288872 288877 286885 280905 281915 282926 284936
      287938 288944 288950 292952 297952 299950 310933 317926
      323919 328918 331919 336920 337926 337937 337943 339945
      345966 350985 354985 358987 365994 377983 380983 384987
      392993 412997 418001 424007 429012 433018 438027 434037
      429044 426048 424052 422059 426070 427076 425082 424088
      422093 416114 417119 421122 428128 431149 433157 437163
      447166 450166 454163 460156 466148 472143 477137 481130
      482126 484123 488121 490119 491112 490106 487101 486089
      489092 492097 495100 500101 504095 508088 508076 507069
      509064 511063 515054 519054 522057 527066 528072 531077
      533092 535118 539127 542131 545130 548127 552124 554121
      556111 559079
 0.01 540195 543180 541173 540169 537166 533163 530161 527156
      525153 522149 515145 512141 507139 504141 501144 499148
      500154 505162 496166 492172 491178 494182 503185 507189
      509193 513202 518210 520213 525216 530217 533214 535210
      537205 540195
 0.01 508248 510240 508234 504231 503224 501211 498207 493207
      489208 483207 479208 475212 470212 469218 472220 476219
      480221 486223 491226 494230 499241 501246 506249 508248
 0.01 515171 514169 513168 513167 511167 509166 508167 509169
      511170 512172 514173 515171
 0.01 509687 507674 504664 494648 488642 485639 480641 477637
      474632 468626 462625 458627 456631 451640 449650 447660
      441666 438670 439676 439680 439684 438690 439698 441701
      439704 437708 432716 424722 421728 423732 426735 428741
      430743 429747 428757 429762 431765 434766 438764 441763
      444763 447766 451775 455782 461788 472786 479780 481773
      484761 483747 481731 484722 489714 496707 502701 505699
      507695 509687
 0.01 493251 493248 491244 490241 489239 486237 484239 481239
      482242 483246 484249 485251 489252 490251 493251
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 307102 307095 306088 301077 298066 294054 291049 286046
      281044 276046 274051 272058 270061 267061 259059 252052
      247049 240048 236047 230049 227054 227058 229061 236067
      245075 262089 266092 268097 276106 284113 290117 294116
      298114 302110 307102
 0.25 517159 517158 516156 515155 514154 512153 511152 509152
      507153 507154 509156 509157 510158 512158 513159 515158
      517159 517159
 0.25 505001 506994 503989 495984 491984 489986 489990 491996
      492001 482001 475000 475996 478992 480987 478981 472979
      465979 460982 459988 460993 464997 465998 465002 463008
      463021 462025 460030 462034 466036 471038 477037 482038
      486037 490035 494032 499025 503013 502005 505001
 0.25 491952 492946 489942 484937 479933 473930 467927 464927
      462930 461936 462940 466947 472952 477955 481957 486957
      489955 491952
 0.25 460109 460103 458098 455095 451095 448098 444099 441103
      439108 438111 443112 448113 452116 455115 459111 460109
 0.25 450139 449136 447133 445133 443134 441135 439137 439141
      439144 440147 442149 443149 446147 447145 449141 450139
 0.25 408956 408952 407949 403944 396940 395936 396933 400928
      402921 401912 397906 390895 387887 385879 381865 380853
      377846 374842 371841 368842 364848 362856 360862 359871
      358879 358890 358906 356915 354923 352940 354948 358954
      365964 368966 372966 375965 378965 389970 394975 397977
      400975 408956
 0.25 361760 362757 361753 356750 354751 349755 345763 340773
      337784 337791 338795 340800 345802 350800 352795 354784
      357772 361762 361760
 0.25 357832 358830 358828 356826 354825 352825 351826 349829
      348831 348833 348835 349837 350838 352838 353837 354837
      355835 356835 357833 357832
 0.25 312873 312865 311858 311854 308848 305842 301838 303832
      303824 303822 300822 298824 298828 299836 301838 298840
      297846 296849 296853 296870 298887 301889 305886 309882
      312875 312873
 0.25 298916 298914 298912 297910 297909 295910 293912 294914
      294916 294918 295919 297918 298916
 0.25 282093 283091 283088 282086 282084 281083 280082 279081
      277081 276080 274081 273081 273083 273084 274085 275087
      275088 277089 277090 278092 280093 282093 282093
 0.25 253067 253065 252063 251062 250060 248059 246058 245060
      246061 247062 248063 249064 249065 250067 251067 253067
      253067
 0.50 399963 399961 399959 399956 399954 398953 396952 395952
      393952 391954 389956 389959 389960 389961 390963 391964
      392965 393966 395966 396966 397965 398964 399963
 0.50 393927 392914 389909 385906 380903 376902 373903 368906
      364910 361915 358921 356927 356936 358942 361949 364953
      370955 377947 386940 389936 392929 393927
 0.50 373857 373853 370851 369854 367857 366860 365863 364867
      364869 364872 366874 368874 370871 370867 371862 372860
      373857
 0.50 357759 357757 353755 349760 347765 345772 344779 342786
      342792 346794 349789 350782 351775 353771 356764 357759
 1.00 383925 382919 381916 375912 368915 363921 360927 361936
      364943 367945 372946 377941 381936 380929 383925
 1.50 373923 373922 371921 369921 368922 367923 366924 366925
      365927 366929 366930 367932 368933 370932 371929 373927
      373925 373924 373923

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 546131 546109 545096 542087 538076 533069 528062 526057
      524052 522046 520041 516032 516025 515017 514009 513004
      513994 513989 512980 511975 509970 507967 502954 499947
      503941 506938 509934 505929 495914 490913 487908 486903
      485896 485880 484871 483865 479852 475841 473835 469833
      462832 458833 459840 459854 459860 457863 452859 445854
      443853 441856 438861 436866 436872 438877 439884 440888
      442900 438903 434904 424908 419909 415911 404912 401910
      400907 401904 405896 408885 411873 407856 404844 406834
      410812 412807 412803 410797 410791 414781 415776 413772
      411756 409753 403754 399753 396753 395750 392737 390732
      386730 383728 377729 370732 367733 363733 361731 358734
      354736 352733 349730 347730 342733 339735 336737 331741
      327749 316764 305778 296783 291784 286787 281788 277790
      269794 261804 262816 263820 266823 297835 296846 295851
      293855 289864 288869 289873 291878 292881 294881 298883
      298886 289904 289914 289918 290922 295930 298931 301929
      314918 321913 325915 330916 335917 340917 344929 344937
      347941 351944 353944 357935 361928 364926 367925 373934
      376940 378948 382970 398992 401000 406000 411999 420997
      431993 434993 436995 439999 442007 450024 469048 475055
      477067 483087 487098 489101 492104 495105 496107 497111
      496115 494123 490126 486128 481127 477127 476131 480139
      483148 486151 489152 495151 498154 500157 497158 494159
      493163 491168 492173 498180 510194 514201 520207 523211
      527210 531211 534207 535201 536193 540182 541177 541170
      540164 541157 543152 544144 545134 546131
 0.01 486995 485993 484992 482994 482995 481997 482998 483999
      483000 485000 485997 486995
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      448715 450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702
      469699
 0.01 470108 470103 465100 462099 458096 453095 450097 449102
      451105 454108 457111 462112 466110 469108 470108
 0.01 397234 398231 397231 396229 396227 394227 393225 391224
      390225 389226 388227 389227 389229 390231 390232 391233
      393234 394235 394236 395235 397234 397234
 0.01 401211 401206 398202 391197 387195 383192 376187 368181
      365183 362183 362186 364189 369191 375196 382203 388209
      391212 396213 401211
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 337084 334080 329077
      326083 331093 334097 339100 339105 342111 342124 343129
      349130 351125 354122 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327115 325109 321106 312103 307095 302087
      296080 287077 279071 271067 269067 262068 257074 258078
      260084 271097 275105 282112 288118 291121 297123 317125
      319127 322128 328124
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 520077
      518079 517085 520091 522102 525110 523113 522120 524130
      526133 528132
 0.25 506065 506052 505045 504040 499031 494026 491023 486021
      483022 482030 482035 484040 487044 488050 491060 492065
      496069 498070 503070 506065
 0.25 470009 470006 469006 468007 468009 470010 470009
 0.25 471917 472898 471887 469878 465878 459881 455888 453896
      451911 446915 443916 437917 430919 424922 419926 418932
      419936 423937 430935 436933 441931 448932 438936 432937
      428940 423946 420952 417956 415963 418965 421963 426960
      431957 438958 450957 453953 455947 459940 464935 468927
      471917
 0.25 405794 404788 402782 399778 398776 397771 393767 387767
      384762 382754 381750 378749 376751 374756 375764 375778
      377781 379781 386780 391780 393781 393785 389788 383790
      364802 358809 351817 348821 345827 342838 342844 344850
      347854 352856 356859 357867 357873 358880 358885 360891
      360897 358904 359914 360917 363916 368914 371913 375916
      380926 384937 387943 391947 393947 396942 396937 396930
      393923 390918 387913 386910 387906 389904 390898 395887
      396879 396870 394864 390858 387849 390836 390818 392813
      395810 401802 405794
 0.25 368773 368765 366758 364749 361747 354747 350750 347754
      342764 340775 339780 339784 340788 343790 348791 352794
      357796 362794 365789 367777 368773
 0.25 330831 330825 327820 323820 320822 314828 310836 307846
      308858 307862 309867 312869 315869 319865 320861 323851
      326842 329833 330831
 0.25 290091 288087 284085 281082 277080 274078 268078 268081
      271085 274087 276091 280094 283096 287095 290091
 0.25 287816 286812 284810 286808 285805 283804 281805 278806
      274807 273808 271811 271814 273816 275817 279817 281817
      285818 287816
 0.50 390801 389799 386799 381802 378807 376812 373817 370823
      372828 374830 378828 378821 378817 379814 384810 387806
      390801
 0.50 388883 389878 388873 384874 382877 377883 372887 367893
      364899 362904 363909 366910 369908 375907 377909 379907
      380902 382900 385893 386887 388884 388883
 0.50 362767 361760 358759 353759 351762 350767 350773 352778
      353784 355785 358784 359781 361776 362769 362767
 0.50 356839 357837 355837 354839 355839 356839

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 040648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER RESOLVE
THE HIGHER QPF MAXIMA.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS FOCUSED NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.30 INCHES ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW WILL
FEED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE AXIS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY 04/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MD MS
VALLEY THROUGH THAT TIME.

ACROSS MT/SD/NE...THE MOIST INFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD SLOW OR
EVEN BACKBUILD ACROSS SD/NE AS DOWNWIND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP BELOW
10 KNOTS. LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
KS INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 05/03Z AND PEAKS NEAR 05/06Z OVER
WEST CENTRAL MO...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS TRANSPORTED
ION THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE 00Z NAM IS
ALONE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS ACROSS
NE...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...POINTS TOWARD
KS/MO. AN AREA OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THIS
REGION...BUT LOCAL 3.00 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.


...MID ATLANTIC/FL/GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES FOCUSED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IS THE DELMARVA...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS AUGMENTED
BY LIFT FROM AN EXITING JET STREAK. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SO THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY EARLY
THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SC COAST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.25 INCHES.
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS INSTABILITY ONSHORE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
04/12Z. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A SEE TEXT OR SLIGHT
RISK EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SC/NC COASTS...WITH
THE NC BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KNOT INFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES TO THE COAST...AND THIS
AIRMASS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FL.
FOR NOW...THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH QPF GRADIENT WAS PLACED OVER
COASTAL NC...AS THE BEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC
COAST...THE RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST...EASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NC COAST.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRIPE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO
SOUTHERN NJ. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...WITH LIFT AUGMENTED
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A LOCAL JET MAXIMUM. A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHERN NJ. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW LOCAL 2.00 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT YET MERIT A SEE TEXT OR
SLIGHT RISK AREA.


...NORTHEAST...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SO THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD
04/12Z...AS THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WANES AND INHIBITION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO
REFIRE NEAR A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX STRETCHING
FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES...SO THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM UPSTATE NY INTO
NORTHERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT A JET STREAK
CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR 05/00Z COULD PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. NONE OF
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HITTING THIS AREA HARD AS OF YET...BUT
THE QPF FOR THIS AREA COULD INCREASE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 536200 533201 531196 530191 529186
      527176 519171 512167 509166 508169 505174 500175 495174
      492176 490178 488175 487172 488167 490159 489154 488150
      487146 484142 481139 477137 472131 470126 468130 466136
      465142 459147 455147 452147 450150 449153 446155 439153
      436155 434152 433150 435140 436134 439133 442128 442120
      440117 437117 434119 432121 431126 428135 427141 428145
      430156 429165 428172 427176 422183 417180 418168 420156
      418144 419133 421124 422112 424110 430109 433109 434107
      434104 434095 439087 439083 437080 432073 423059 416043
      413039 410036 404029 397025 392019 385014 380007 376999
      374994 374989 370989 367990 361992 357992 352994 348995
      344994 342991 338983 339977 340972 339963 339948 339942
      341938 344930 344925 346921 350912 353905 359893 361888
      361882 361873 364865 363852 361829 360817 360810 361806
      366787 366784 364784 360785 356784 353787 347793 341798
      330808 323812 319817 315825 314834 308871 308877 309880
      311890 313894 313901 312911 306918 303921 303928 302939
      299946 289954 287952 286949 286937 278924 277920 276915
      276903 267862 269853 272844 274828 253810 251818 248821
      245820 243816 244811 246804 249800 253797 260793 270799
      286803 288805 291802 293794 297788 299781 308767 314753
      317746 322739 334726 340720 343711 348695 356682 360675
      366669 374666 378665 381660 386652 393645
 0.01 559112 559095 559090 560086 562081 559047 558039 555034
      552028 551023 545012 543007 542005 539005 535003 529002
      517001 497010 491010 486012 479010 476006 470998 465991
      462986 459983 452974 443967 438964 435958 430949 424941
      414919 412915 409910 406905 403901 394894 391878 387850
      385818 384802 385796 384787 386772 392763 398754 401742
      403737 407732 414725 417724 421728 426727 428725 430724
      425736 420747 418753 418760 416774 415787 411798 410803
      411807 412811 414813 416813 420808 423812 425821 427827
      449862 453859 456855 457848 456840 454836 454832 455824
      453818 450813 444805 440801 439792 441781 446768 451758
      455747 457740 460733 462728 464726 467725 471721 474717
      476710 477702 477696 481693 485690 487686 485672 493664
      500653 501639 501632 498628 494623 491620 484626 479628
      474629 469629 464628 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 425646 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 535217 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233
      517238 515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281
      505284 506290 510297
 0.01 463176 461170 460167 456167 451170 449171 448170 447167
      443166 439170 434184 433188 431190 426194 420196 416200
      410201 408202 404202 398202 393199 391197 388196 385200
      387203 390204 395207 405215 410212 412211 413214 411224
      408230 409232 415231 418230 418225 416223 417220 419216
      421215 426214 432213 435213 436209 434203 434198 436194
      439189 444185 455182 460179 463176
 0.01 306083 306077 302073 293067 283063 278061 272060 265059
      260056 254048 251044 246041 236037 231038 229044 228049
      229055 230060 234065 241071 249078 257084 274098 289110
      294110 297104 302094 305088 306083
 0.25 547085 547079 547076 545068 541063 537060 530058 526055
      523057 523062 525069 528075 532080 535084 539089 541091
      543089 547085
 0.25 530156 530146 528140 524135 519130 514128 511131 508138
      506145 507148 509151 514154 518156 523157 527158 530156
 0.25 472658 472653 470650 464653 459657 456662 454668 451674
      450680 452684 456687 455693 454700 455705 453708 453713
      454720 457706 462703 466697 469691 470686 468671 470664
      472658
 0.25 486063 487053 486045 483039 479034 457026 453023 449018
      447001 445995 442990 435982 417966 410959 407953 405947
      404938 402931 398918 390909 386906 382904 379903 376904
      372909 369914 366922 364935 361948 358962 354977 354981
      357980 361978 371981 385982 391984 394986 394989 389002
      391008 394011 403019 408021 411023 415024 421022 425025
      427031 428037 429046 431051 439061 442067 444073 451081
      456084 457091 458096 461097 468098 473098 476093 476085
      476081 477078 486063
 0.25 460106 460101 458099 457096 455095 452093 449095 448097
      447102 448104 450107 452110 454110 456110 459108 460106
 0.25 446744 446739 445739 442741 439742 437743 436747 435751
      435756 437760 441758 442755 443752 444749 445747 446744
 0.25 397693 396683 394678 391674 388673 384675 379681 370683
      366690 360704 356711 352719 349725 345732 340737 335743
      330748 326755 324763 320770 314784 305796 303799 303802
      305805 309807 316804 325800 337791 342786 347780 351774
      354766 359750 365735 368729 374723 379718 385712 393703
      396698 397693
 0.25 394738 392734 388734 385738 384740 381745 379749 379755
      377760 378762 381762 385761 388758 391753 392749 393745
      394738 394738
 0.25 310826 308822 305818 301815 295817 291825 289829 289835
      291847 291858 295865 295876 289883 286893 286903 287912
      289917 290919 291917 294914 294908 296885 298878 298872
      298866 300861 302851 303838 302834 305830 310826
 0.25 294086 292080 287078 276073 264068 253063 244058 241057
      238058 240062 249069 257077 266084 277090 282092 289092
      293088 294086
 0.50 472063 471058 468054 461049 455044 448038 442033 438031
      435033 434038 433041 434044 439050 447055 454060 460066
      464068 467068 472063
 0.50 434992 431986 426982 421981 419982 414989 412991 412994
      413000 415003 420006 423008 425008 424000 426999 433997
      434992
 0.50 414017 413010 411002 407998 403995 399993 395998 393000
      393004 396009 401012 405016 409019 412019 414017
 0.50 390748 391746 390744 390741 389741 388742 386743 384745
      383747 382747 381750 381752 381754 382756 384755 386756
      387754 387753 389751 390748 390748
 0.50 400972 399964 397956 392943 391938 390934 386929 378920
      376918 372918 371920 371925 368941 365949 364956 362964
      361971 363973 365974 371977 378976 382975 386976 400973
      400972
 0.50 369709 369707 369705 368704 367705 366706 365707 364708
      363709 362711 361713 361715 361716 360718 361718 363718
      364717 365717 366716 368714 369712 369710 369709
 0.50 354748 353740 349739 341744 337748 334752 328761 326772
      322782 324789 329789 335787 339784 345776 351767 354757
      354748
 0.50 296838 296836 295834 294834 294836 293839 295839 296838
 0.50 286087 284082 281079 278078 276076 272074 268072 264072
      261074 263076 266080 270083 273084 277086 282088 286087
 1.00 385959 385952 385945 383940 380937 377936 376940 375945
      374952 373958 373963 377965 381963 384960 385959
 1.00 344770 344768 345765 345763 343763 343764 341765 340766
      338769 338770 337771 337773 339773 340773 342772 344770
      344770

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040527
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 0526Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW 2WX 25 N PIR 35 SSW MHE 35 SW ONL 25 SSE IEN 40 S IKA
45 SSW 2WX.


...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.30
INCHES. CELL MOTION SLOWS AS THE DOWNWIND PROPAGATION DROPS TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO THAT CELL MERGERS AND BACKBUILDING COULD
RESULT IN PLASH FLOODING THROUGH 04/12Z. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 417 FOR MORE DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040527
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

...VALID 0526Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSW 2WX 25 N PIR 35 SSW MHE 35 SW ONL 25 SSE IEN 40 S IKA
45 SSW 2WX.


...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.30
INCHES. CELL MOTION SLOWS AS THE DOWNWIND PROPAGATION DROPS TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...SO THAT CELL MERGERS AND BACKBUILDING COULD
RESULT IN PLASH FLOODING THROUGH 04/12Z. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 417 FOR MORE DETAILS.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0226Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.



...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.


ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0226Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.



...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.


ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0226Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.



...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.


ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0226Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 35 ENE TCC 30 NW CAO 35 ESE LAA 25 NE GCK
20 E DDC 15 NW AVK 30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.



...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...LOWER OH VALLEY...

A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
STILL HAS ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR BACKBUILDING
CELLS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 415 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.


ORAVEC/TERRY/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 040055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
STILL LOOK GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE AREAS OR
THE PREVIOUS REASONING.
PREVIOUS DUSCUSSION FOLLOWS...

2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
STILL LOOK GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE AREAS OR
THE PREVIOUS REASONING.
PREVIOUS DUSCUSSION FOLLOWS...

2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
STILL LOOK GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE AREAS OR
THE PREVIOUS REASONING.
PREVIOUS DUSCUSSION FOLLOWS...

2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 040055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
STILL LOOK GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE AREAS OR
THE PREVIOUS REASONING.
PREVIOUS DUSCUSSION FOLLOWS...

2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

...ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS...

A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032241
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
640 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MADE NO CHANGE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/TERRY/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537139 536135 534129 530126 526125 521123 516121
      512118 509115 503111 499110 495107 501085 502071 497065
      485055 472044 466038 460032 449018 442011 439007 437002
      434991 429979 420956 416948 412939 408931 403924 398917
      396913 396906 394896 395885 395879 396874 396859 396852
      397846 399840 401835 405823 410814 412810 414804 417802
      418806 421813 422823 424829 426831 428834 433833 437832
      439827 441822 441817 441804 441797 442791 444781 457739
      462731 468722 473712 476707 480701 484693 488685 492665
      494655 494650 489652 485653 483651 483648 482638 480634
      477631 473630 468630 464629 459631 454641 449652 446663
      443669 442673 437685 434693 431696 428697 424691 417685
      414684 410685 406693 402700 399709 393729 388738 384747
      374765 366789 364796 361803 360810 360814 361827 361838
      361845 362851 363863 362867 362874 361879 361884 360891
      358895 350914 345925 344930 342936 339941 339947 339965
      340968 339974 338978 338984 340988 339994 338998 335003
      329007 324013 321016 319020 315030 314035 312038 310042
      307045 303048 297048 287051 278056 272056 266055 260054
      256051 253047 249043 243039 236037 232038 230043 229046
      228051 229059 234065 247076 259088 272102 286118 294121
      299120 303116 306109 308097 308086 310082 311075 315069
      320060 328044 330040 334039 346040 359042 368045 370051
      367055 364059 367063 370067 370074 371081 373089 375096
      384095 389091 394084 397082 401083 404086 407091 410099
      411102 410106 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 403116 408119 413125 417135 424136
      432140 435142 435149 437154 439156 442160 448162 455159
      466160 475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 501175
      504173 508171 511169 514166 517164 521163 528159 533152
      536147
 0.01 487146 486145 486144 485142 483141 483140 482139 480138
      479140 480141 481142 482144 483145 483146 485147 486148
      487146
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 440856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 357730 348731 344735 341741 338746
      334751 316773 306779 302784 298788 294793 291796 288795
      273793 267792 259792 255793 253794 248798 247802 252807
      257813 262817 266821 271823 275823 273825 269829 271835
      273839 272842 270850 267859 267865 270872 271879 272886
      277902 279910 279915 278919 275932 275940 276947 277956
      279960 281962 289962 294957 296952 299946 301940 302931
      304892 307879 310863 312846 314828 316821 320817 323812
      328809 338800 350791 359781 362776 364771 366759 366753
      367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 464666 459669 455675 451686 449692 448700 446705
      443708 439713 436719 433723 428726 420734 417738 415743
      412748 410754 411757 414757 417755 423751 428747 434746
      438747 439741 440732 447725 452722 457717 463709 474690
      478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455103 453099 448096 443095 436095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      424117 427118 432116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433024 430024 429033
      429042 430050 430054 431056 438066 442071 446075 450078
      448075 445072 446067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430999 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 405933
      402931 401936 402938 404947 407954 410970 414985 419999
      423006 427010 431009
 0.25 410021 410016 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 396793 392794 389797 386800 383804 382807 380812
      381818 384818 387815 389813 392808 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 368976 370970 369961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353965 351971 352979 350985 348004 349013 349022
      352029 353032 357033 363030 366023 367014 366007 365999
      367992 370985
 0.25 355757 354748 348747 343751 339755 331765 322774 314784
      311791 310794 311799 316802 322805 329802 334798 342790
      347783 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 281091 283089
      284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362018 361012 360007 358003 360997 360994 357992
      355993 354998 354005 353011 352016 352020 354025 357027
      361026 362025
 0.50 351755 351753 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787
      319792 321795 322799 325800 329798 337791 343783 347774
      350764 351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 328779 326784 324786
      326790 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768 345765
 1.50 336782 336781 334781 332782 331783 331785 333786 334785
      335784 336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032241
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
640 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MADE NO CHANGE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.



DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/TERRY/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537139 536135 534129 530126 526125 521123 516121
      512118 509115 503111 499110 495107 501085 502071 497065
      485055 472044 466038 460032 449018 442011 439007 437002
      434991 429979 420956 416948 412939 408931 403924 398917
      396913 396906 394896 395885 395879 396874 396859 396852
      397846 399840 401835 405823 410814 412810 414804 417802
      418806 421813 422823 424829 426831 428834 433833 437832
      439827 441822 441817 441804 441797 442791 444781 457739
      462731 468722 473712 476707 480701 484693 488685 492665
      494655 494650 489652 485653 483651 483648 482638 480634
      477631 473630 468630 464629 459631 454641 449652 446663
      443669 442673 437685 434693 431696 428697 424691 417685
      414684 410685 406693 402700 399709 393729 388738 384747
      374765 366789 364796 361803 360810 360814 361827 361838
      361845 362851 363863 362867 362874 361879 361884 360891
      358895 350914 345925 344930 342936 339941 339947 339965
      340968 339974 338978 338984 340988 339994 338998 335003
      329007 324013 321016 319020 315030 314035 312038 310042
      307045 303048 297048 287051 278056 272056 266055 260054
      256051 253047 249043 243039 236037 232038 230043 229046
      228051 229059 234065 247076 259088 272102 286118 294121
      299120 303116 306109 308097 308086 310082 311075 315069
      320060 328044 330040 334039 346040 359042 368045 370051
      367055 364059 367063 370067 370074 371081 373089 375096
      384095 389091 394084 397082 401083 404086 407091 410099
      411102 410106 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 403116 408119 413125 417135 424136
      432140 435142 435149 437154 439156 442160 448162 455159
      466160 475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 501175
      504173 508171 511169 514166 517164 521163 528159 533152
      536147
 0.01 487146 486145 486144 485142 483141 483140 482139 480138
      479140 480141 481142 482144 483145 483146 485147 486148
      487146
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 440856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 357730 348731 344735 341741 338746
      334751 316773 306779 302784 298788 294793 291796 288795
      273793 267792 259792 255793 253794 248798 247802 252807
      257813 262817 266821 271823 275823 273825 269829 271835
      273839 272842 270850 267859 267865 270872 271879 272886
      277902 279910 279915 278919 275932 275940 276947 277956
      279960 281962 289962 294957 296952 299946 301940 302931
      304892 307879 310863 312846 314828 316821 320817 323812
      328809 338800 350791 359781 362776 364771 366759 366753
      367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 464666 459669 455675 451686 449692 448700 446705
      443708 439713 436719 433723 428726 420734 417738 415743
      412748 410754 411757 414757 417755 423751 428747 434746
      438747 439741 440732 447725 452722 457717 463709 474690
      478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455103 453099 448096 443095 436095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      424117 427118 432116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433024 430024 429033
      429042 430050 430054 431056 438066 442071 446075 450078
      448075 445072 446067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430999 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 405933
      402931 401936 402938 404947 407954 410970 414985 419999
      423006 427010 431009
 0.25 410021 410016 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 396793 392794 389797 386800 383804 382807 380812
      381818 384818 387815 389813 392808 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 368976 370970 369961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353965 351971 352979 350985 348004 349013 349022
      352029 353032 357033 363030 366023 367014 366007 365999
      367992 370985
 0.25 355757 354748 348747 343751 339755 331765 322774 314784
      311791 310794 311799 316802 322805 329802 334798 342790
      347783 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 281091 283089
      284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362018 361012 360007 358003 360997 360994 357992
      355993 354998 354005 353011 352016 352020 354025 357027
      361026 362025
 0.50 351755 351753 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787
      319792 321795 322799 325800 329798 337791 343783 347774
      350764 351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 328779 326784 324786
      326790 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768 345765
 1.50 336782 336781 334781 332782 331783 331785 333786 334785
      335784 336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 032047
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 032047
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 032047
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 032047
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TRIGGER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WHILE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES COULD FUEL A MORE
ORGANIZED/HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
TERRAIN...BUT THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE WPC FORECAST STARTED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES.


...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
BROAD ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE
ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER
OR EVEN PHASING.  PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP OR REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE
MID-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLY LYING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF
ASCENT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST...FOR DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PMDHMD.  FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WAS HEAVILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.  MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED DAY 2 AND 3 SLIGHT RISK AREAS.


...NORTHEAST...

A DEEP VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
GFS/ECMWF.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/GERHARDT

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 545188 542196 540200 537200 533201 532198 529190 529183
      526180 520177 516171 511166 510164 508166 505174 493176
      489177 487170 490162 490157 490151 488147 485141 490136
      498138 499134 499131 496124 492122 488122 485123 482127
      479134 476139 472142 468145 463151 459157 450166 442164
      438164 436161 432153 430149 430144 429133 427137 428143
      430158 429170 426177 422183 418180 417179 417175 419167
      419158 419154 418152 418142 419131 421127 420121 417115
      415111 417109 420103 422098 422092 424088 425082 427075
      425067 423062 421057 424048 421042 413031 407026 402023
      395018 391013 387007 385000 384994 382992 375988 371988
      368990 362992 356992 353987 351985 351981 353972 345960
      345944 343936 342930 341927 340923 336922 330920 327918
      323920 318926 313930 308935 302946 298951 293952 288950
      288941 281929 277922 276912 277902 278894 281879 285872
      286869 286864 284847 283837 277834 267831 260828 254825
      250820 246822 245825 240828 234826 232824 229821 227818
      227814 231813 233815 238819 243819 243814 244810 246804
      250799 255795 259793 262792 265794 272794 286801 298804
      302802 301800 297792 298786 300780 306770 312757 317746
      322739 326734 331728 337723 341719 346715 354711 359706
      363702 367696 370682 372676 376670 382658 387652 393645
 0.01 559112 559080 557069 555057 552045 549033 544027 540019
      538015 535011 529002 523994 517988 510984 506982 503979
      499972 496970 491969 487967 482966 477964 471963 468961
      465958 459949 439921 428903 424893 419885 414875 409867
      401855 389838 385826 383815 384809 383802 384797 382792
      378787 369788 365786 366781 374775 382769 387761 397747
      404741 410737 419731 422731 424733 427737 429742 429746
      428761 428768 430776 433778 436777 440769 442766 444765
      446766 451775 453780 457784 460788 464788 474785 477782
      480777 483769 484759 482743 481735 482728 484722 487718
      492711 500703 506697 508693 509687 507675 504665 501660
      499655 499648 500641 501632 498629 495624 492621 489622
      481627 477629 474629 468625 461625 458626 454626
 0.01 447628 444631 441632 438633 436636 434637 433640 430642
      427644 426647 422648 421649 418652 414651 412649 410647
      408646 406644 405642
 0.01 536219 532215 527215 525217 524222 520228 518233 517238
      515242 511246 509251 506258 505268 505276 504281 505284
      506290 510297
 0.01 509246 510241 509237 506233 503228 501224 501215 500209
      495206 491208 487209 481207 474212 470212 469214 471221
      478218 483217 488219 494229 501238 503243 506247 509246
 0.01 463176 462170 460168 457167 453169 449173 445177 441180
      437184 437189 439190 442191 444189 448185 452183 457185
      460180 463176
 0.01 441701 440699 439697 437698 436700 436701 435703 434704
      434706 434708 435710 437709 438707 438706 439704 441701
 0.01 423239 423236 421235 420235 418235 416234 415234 414234
      412235 412238 413241 415241 417242 419240 421241 421240
      423239 423239
 0.01 427784 427781 424782 422787 418792 414793 413795 411800
      410803 410807 412812 416814 419806 420799 423794 426789
      427784
 0.01 364762 362758 360757 359759 357761 356764 354766 353769
      350771 348774 352774 355775 357777 359774 360771 362767
      363765 364762
 0.01 363807 361805 359805 355806 351802 347799 344798 340797
      338799 335803 332805 330809 328810 323812 325816 327818
      327822 330831 330836 329839 328849 328854 329857 332866
      335868 339869 342869 345867 347864 346862 344850 344840
      345831 349826 359816 363807
 0.01 307102 306076 301072 299067 297061 294056 292051 288047
      283045 278044 274050 272057 269061 262061 243049 237047
      231049 228052 227058 231063 235066 243073 260087 268095
      275104 278109 283112 292117 297115 301111 304107 307102
 0.25 554097 554088 551086 549089 545084 542081 537077 534076
      532077 534083 537089 539096 542103 545109 548109 551102
      554097
 0.25 528159 527156 525154 523152 521151 517150 514149 511149
      511150 512154 514156 516158 518160 520162 522162 524160
      526160 528159
 0.25 508011 505005 502003 498003 492004 486007 480009 476003
      467994 457985 449973 444969 439966 428960 423955 419949
      414933 407921 403915 399911 384886 379875 376867 372862
      366860 364862 363867 362876 363885 362900 360916 359925
      359934 359942 359951 360960 361964 362969 367973 371976
      387978 395979 402982 405984 405985 398988 396991 398995
      399997 403998 406998 407002 411008 422017 431027 434033
      436039 439047 444052 453062 459067 466069 471068 475064
      476060 476056 477052 479049 480038 479027 503021 506016
      508011
 0.25 477684 476681 473680 468681 466687 463693 459697 457702
      455705 454710 456713 458712 462707 467702 470698 474692
      477686 477684
 0.25 463640 462638 459637 456640 455643 454646 455651 456655
      457658 459657 461654 462651 463647 463643 463640
 0.25 459111 459107 459103 458101 456098 453096 451097 449099
      448104 448109 449112 450114 453117 457115 458113 459111
 0.25 448143 448141 448139 447138 446137 445136 443136 441136
      440137 439139 439141 439142 439144 440146 440147 441149
      442149 443149 445148 445147 447145 447144 448143
 0.25 399688 399683 398679 394674 390671 384673 381679 379684
      376697 373703 370707 365712 363717 364722 369725 374724
      379721 384717 387713 394703 397698 399691 399688
 0.25 348743 348737 345736 338739 333743 328748 326752 324756
      324764 326768 329768 334764 339758 343752 347747 348743
 0.25 304823 300822 298826 295829 293833 292839 292843 292849
      294851 298853 301851 303846 304842 304836 303829 303824
      304823
 0.25 302891 303884 301880 298876 296878 294882 294887 296891
      295896 291899 288900 286906 287912 288918 289922 292925
      296924 300916 300909 299903 300897 301893 302891
 0.25 295088 295083 293079 288078 283077 274075 265071 256067
      254068 255071 261076 266083 273088 280092 286094 289093
      293091 295088
 0.50 466016 464012 462010 456006 452001 448995 445990 441983
      437978 433976 426976 419978 417980 416984 415991 417999
      422003 427006 434007 438009 440011 444015 450019 456020
      462019 466016
 0.50 402947 403940 402934 398924 394915 391908 386899 381891
      376884 374882 371881 369882 367893 366905 363915 362925
      363937 364949 366961 367965 370968 374970 377969 384965
      388966 392964 396958 401952 402947
 0.50 285087 282085 281083 278082 275081 273079 270078 268079
      269081 272082 273084 277085 279086 282087 285087
 1.00 390938 390930 389924 385911 380902 376900 373901 370906
      369911 367918 367925 368931 368938 368942 370947 373953
      377956 381952 385949 389940 390938
 1.50 384940 385934 385927 384920 383916 380913 377912 375913
      373917 373923 373929 372936 373941 376945 379948 382946
      384942 384940
 2.00 381936 381934 381931 380929 378927 378929 378931 377934
      377936 379937 380938 381936

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540195 542186 542178 540162 543150 545134 546131 546124
      546111 546098 542086 540081 538075 533068 527060 521048
      518040 514032 509027 504018 501015 496013 487005 480999
      473995 471991 469985 471975 471969 469963 472952 473944
      474939 475924 477918 477911 477894 472886 468880 464876
      461876 456876 452879 446884 441888 435890 430892 427891
      426889 422880 420871 419865 421863 424860 427856 430845
      430840 428836 425828 422818 420812 420805 422794 420777
      419771 417766 415761 414753 412737 412733 410731 407725
      403724 399727 395729 392733 387740 381744 363744 356749
      351757 350759 348757 346752 345745 341741 337740 332741
      325746 317759 312768 309773 305778 297783 291784 288786
      279788 272792 268795 266798 261805 262817 264821 267823
      270827 276828 286829 292830 295832 297835 298837 297839
      292840 289844 288848 288854 289860 289864 288866 288870
      289872 289880 286890 285893 287898 290901 289907 289918
      293927 294930 297931 305926 310920 317915 319913 322913
      325915 330917 331922 332930 333935 334949 337958 341960
      346961 352960 357957 370945 376940 383936 386934 392934
      398934 402937 406945 408949 409956 410963 408969 407975
      403979 398987 393994 388000 387004 386011 386018 386020
      389022 393027 396030 408031 413031 418033 420038 422042
      427047 432054 435059 436064 437070 437074 436076 433083
      430085 426087 424091 425096 424105 419113 417114 417118
      420121 425123 430123 434122 438121 440125 439132 435136
      434140 437144 441152 445152 447150 452144 455140 458137
      464131 468124 467121 468118 471116 478112 482103 485099
      486093 481084 478081 473083 464084 465079 469075 474071
      476069 473063 468063 461066 459067 456068 456065 459061
      463060 472057 478063 484070 489080 493089 495096 495102
      496109 495116 494123 491125 476129 483148
 0.01 483148 486151 491152 495151 499155 493161 491166 491173
      492179 496182 502185 505188 511198 516209 519212 524215
      529217 533214 538203 540195
 0.01 508248 509243 508240 506234 503228 502220 501214 498208
      495207 494210 493215 492217 490221 491225 495231 497236
      499242 503248 506249 508248
 0.01 469699 467694 462694 459697 456700 453704 450708 448712
      450719 452718 456715 459711 462708 464705 467702 469699
 0.01 455675 454668 453662 449661 444663 441666 438670 438675
      440682 441687 443692 448690 451687 453683 454678 455675
 0.01 394050 392048 390047 388047 387047 386047 386049 386050
      388052 390052 392050 394050 394050
 0.01 356120 354115 351112 345103 342093 338090 336084 333080
      329079 327082 328085 335093 338098 339104 342115 342127
      344130 347130 349130 350128 353123 356120
 0.01 328124 328120 327116 326111 321107 315105 310100 308099
      307096 301085 296081 291078 280072 275068 269066 265067
      260063 253053 248049 241049 238054 236056 236060 238065
      243070 261084 275104 278109 282113 286117 291121 319127
      325127 328124
 0.25 534182 535178 536174 534168 528167 523160 516153 509148
      505148 504151 506156 508159 516166 519169 522173 526180
      529184 533184 534182
 0.25 528132 528121 527108 530098 530092 529087 524081 522079
      518078 517084 519088 520091 522096 523105 524109 523112
      522119 523125 525133 528132
 0.25 510180 510179 508177 508180 509181 510180
 0.25 500036 500031 499028 494024 489021 483021 478022 473024
      469028 471035 474039 480041 487041 492040 499039 500036
 0.25 462927 462920 460917 454911 446906 443906 442911 443918
      445921 450929 452933 450935 447938 442940 438940 435938
      426935 424935 421940 423945 426949 430952 431957 437963
      443968 450974 452976 457977 459973 460966 459952 457940
      462927
 0.25 449107 451105 449103 448102 446103 445104 445106 444108
      445109 446109 447107 449107 449107
 0.25 410859 406803 407797 407790 406783 404777 400776 399781
      395789 382802 379805 377810 375814 372817 369821 365824
      362826 358825 355821 350820 344826 338834 337838 338842
      341846 346846 354839 359834 359839 358845 357850 354853
      350855 347858 346861 347866 351867 354866 356868 355872
      351882 347890 348898 347903 347916 348921 350925 354928
      359929 388908 397905 403899 404894 405888 407875 409866
      410859
 0.25 377771 376766 372764 369766 365769 362773 359776 357779
      354783 356785 360783 363780 366777 371775 375773 377771
 0.25 311854 310850 307850 303852 300855 297859 297864 297868
      299874 303875 306871 308867 309863 310858 311854
 0.25 290091 288087 283082 279080 274077 270076 267076 266081
      270085 273090 277094 281097 287095 290091
 0.50 403859 403851 402844 401830 399817 398815 395814 390817
      384823 376829 369835 364843 362849 361853 365863 364875
      362887 358897 357910 358914 359916 363916 371912 377906
      385901 393895 397887 400876 403864 403859
 1.00 396853 395844 393842 391839 386836 380838 375841 372847
      372851 374854 374860 372868 371876 369892 366899 369902
      373902 381893 387888 390882 390873 392865 396853
 1.50 385861 385859 385856 385855 384854 383854 382854 381855
      380856 379857 378859 378860 377862 377864 377866 378868
      379870 380870 382868 383866 384864 384863 385861 385861
 1.50 378882 378880 377877 375879 375880 375882 376883 377883
      378882

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031905
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 21Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.


2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS


A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 031905
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 21Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.


2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS


A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031905
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 21Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.


2100 UTC UPDATE

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---THE QPF AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ALONG THE SC AND LOWER NC COASTS


A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
TOTALS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH
ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES FROM
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN WY WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS---WITH
THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS USED FOR DETAILS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 031853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 031853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031435
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 15Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


1500 UTC UPDATE

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPA.  CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM
QUICKLY WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION---WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
HOURLY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DECREASE ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS--SIGNALING A DECREASING THREAT OF RUNOFF ISSUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON---WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
INTENSITIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.   PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION # 0413 VALID UNTIL 1615 UTC FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ACROSS THIS REGION.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SC/NC---THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OR INTO THE GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION.

ORAVEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING
OVER COASTAL SC/NC. IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE
PREPONDERANCE OF OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE
BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER  PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 031435
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 15Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


1500 UTC UPDATE

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPA.  CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM
QUICKLY WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION---WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF
HOURLY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DECREASE ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS--SIGNALING A DECREASING THREAT OF RUNOFF ISSUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITIES MAY INCREASE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON---WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
INTENSITIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.   PLEASE SEE WPC`S MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION # 0413 VALID UNTIL 1615 UTC FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ACROSS THIS REGION.  ELSEWHERE---NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SC/NC---THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OR INTO THE GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION.

ORAVEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING
OVER COASTAL SC/NC. IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE
PREPONDERANCE OF OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE
BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER  PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030942
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
541 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0941Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)... WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030942
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
541 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0941Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)... WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030942
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
541 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0941Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)... WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 030942
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
541 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 0941Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N OCF 10 WSW ORL 15 ESE BOW 35 N PGD 20 SSW SRQ 55 WSW SRQ
90 W SRQ 90 W PIE 95 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 20 N OCF.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)... WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030936
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
534 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z
WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGED QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE TEXT WAS
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WY INTO NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE
ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN WARRANTED.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
TX/SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...WHICH TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COASTS.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE
CLOSEST...PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR
REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL
PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 530227 526222 519205 511194
      509191 507192 502193 496195 493187 478182 476180 472178
      465176 462193 458200 456202 456206 462210 467211 470210
      477211 482211 475216 463224 458227 450228 425232 413231
      409223 404217 396207 389199 388180 388174 388170 388164
      389159 396144 394140 390140 385140 384143 372136 371133
      370128 370125 372121 374115 378112 389108 391103 391098
      384097 379102 376103 373101 373089 371083 366069 364062
      357060 355056 357053 361052 363048 361042 356039 349040
      348043 349046 350055 351060 350063 344068 344074 347084
      348093 346102 345106 342107 337105 332104 328105 326106
      324109 322115 320117 312116 307113 304108 306104 313094
      315089 314084 317080 316076 314066 313063 313057 314048
      313039 313030 314022 327013 328995 330982 341973 347968
      354964 369961 376959 382956 385940 385934 387931 387925
      385921 381908 378903 376894 371878 372861 372855 368847
      368843 369839 372833 371831 370826 371817 375800 384777
      389771 392764 395759 396754 397747 408726 415715 421709
      427704 431699 434693 437689 440684 445678 451672 461663
      467658 472652 482641 489631 494626 502622 519668 519684
      514689 516698 516703 515707 514715 511721 507727 503727
      497728 492732 488737 479747 471756 455776 448786 445791
      442798 439804 436805 435807 431813 433816 437813 438811
      441813 445814 449820 455825 459829 461834 465839 470846
      474858 475868 473875 471883 474885 471890
 0.01 471890 470895 468898 466897 461899 458898 454891 453889
      452884 451865 448860 446855 446850 440843 433833 430826
      430821 431819 430815 428817 424822 419830 411840 402848
      395859 393863 392870 391876 393881 402891 415908 421919
      424926 426933 435957 439971 441979 443985 447001 448015
      453047 454056 456062 457069 460074 466104 468110 472116
      475120 480122 485124 488126 490124 502121 508122 512121
      520117 524113 528113 543116 544119 546120 548126 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 518853 520853 523855
      531854 534851 534843 534840
 0.01 411699 406671 400671 396673 392675 389677 386680 380688
      376697 369705 354717 349721 342725 327735 323738 321742
      315751 303765 291772 287772 282774 273774 267775 263777
      257779 253781 239787 227795 225800 228803 232804 234809
      239819 243825 246819 249817 251819 253823 259838 261842
      262849 264854 266859 268864 269870 270882 271907 273915
      272927 271939 270941 269948 268954 268960 272968 279965
      285958 287954 289951 294946 301940 303937 304929 303916
      301905 300900 300893 303881 307873 308865 311870 313870
      315866 317860 315834 316829 318825 329822 336818 341813
      346805 350795 357777 365760 368754 374749 381741 387735
      399719 405710 409704 411699
 0.01 308091 309085 308081 308068 303063 292061 283059 272058
      263055 252053 244051 232050 228051 229054 234061 245073
      250079 257084 272093 280096 289096 299098 303096 306093
      308091
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 493654 487657 482661 475670
      469673 466677 459685 445703 436712 431719 425729 423735
      419741 412751 410753 408759 407766 410771 415783 406785
      400792 398790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380816 381821
      383825 385827 388828 393824 401816 405812 410809 410813
      411818 415819 418814 422799 431793 436786 448765 452765
      456761 461753 467743 470737 472729 477719 482716 486718
      502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457126 456115 456106 455098 450092 444087
      437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 399044 393045
      392047 388046 386049 385067 385074 390079 398108 406119
      409115 412114 415116 422120 427124 433121 440120 443120
      445123 443130 440138 441143 443147 446150 450152 455152
      457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433999 433987 431978 427970 423961 415947 412939 410935
      407932 404935 403939 403952 402964 402970 403977 405985
      408993 416010 418018 420029 421034 423037 425034 425027
      426015 427003 433999
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378714 376715 368716 361719 357722 334738 331742
      326747 320756 305778 302783 298788 294792 292797 293802
      293806 288806 282804 277801 262799 256801 252804 252807
      253810 255812 258813 271815 270821 269829 268837 268842
      269848 271856 275863 281867 282897 282905 282914 284922
      286925 290926 292925 293920 294912 293896 292878 289862
      290855 292849 296837 300825 302823 306821 314818 320816
      328814 333811 336807 342796 346790 349785 351777 354770
      359761 365750 369743 372736 379716
 0.25 390897 390895 390892 390890 389888 388886 386884 385884
      384883 383884 381886 381887 381888 381891 382893 382895
      383897 385899 387899 389898 390897
 0.25 386027 387013 385999 382991 379987 375983 367980 362980
      357982 351987 348992 347998 345009 343013 338015 334019
      334023 340023 345025 352030 360034 365037 367041 372049
      379055 383056 384054 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 298084 299079 297075 295073 291072 282071 274071 267070
      263069 261069 260072 265076 270083 275086 282089 286090
      291090 297086 298084
 0.50 498683 497665 496662 491662 485668 465688 457700 447711
      443715 440722 436728 434731 433737 433740 430744 426748
      416757 416763 418765 425765 430769 432768 434765 442754
      445747 449741 453738 456740 461737 464730 458726 467716
      476703 480697 483691 485699 492696 496690 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 447098 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416106
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404112 406113 410109 414109
      419113 423117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414975 414970 414967 412965 409966 407967 405970 406975
      407977 408982 410984 411987 413987 413982 414977 414975
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 366737 365729 362726 356727 352729 337743 331750 325760
      313776 308783 305787 303793 301797 301803 309809 313812
      318812 324810 327807 335800 341792 345783 350773 359754
      363746 366737
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 296817 295814 291814 286817 279821 276826 273834 273843
      276849 279851 283850 287845 292840 294832 295824 296817
 0.50 292079 290078 289076 285076 281076 280076 276077 274078
      273081 275083 277084 281085 284085 286084 288083 292081
      292079
 0.50 288900 288897 288895 288893 287892 287893 286895 287898
      287900 288900 288900
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 357741 355737 353737 345743 340750 335758 328772 322779
      315785 309790 306793 307797 310799 315799 320799 318802
      318804 321805 325803 329800 334794 340786 348771 350762
      355754 357741
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 291830 291826 292822 290819 288820 285822 283824 282826
      280828 279832 279836 280840 283841 286840 288838 290836
      291833 291830
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 348754 348751 346752 344755 339762 336771 334780 328788
      325797 325800 328798 334791 338782 342775 344770 344765
      345761 347756 348754
 1.50 290831 290826 290822 287822 285824 283827 282829 280832
      280834 281837 283839 285837 288835 289833 290831
 2.00 288831 288829 288827 287825 285826 285827 284828 283829
      282831 282833 282836 284835 286835 287833 288833 288831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505285 504281 505275 505264 506258 508253
      511247 515243 516238 520229 519225 517225 514225 511227
      510233 508231 510226 513223 517225 520228 524221 526216
      529215 532215 534211 537207 539205 537203 533202 526199
      520199 513198 508198 500197 490194 484188 482188 483181
      483176 482171 476166 469163 467162 466164 462171 455185
      451190 447191 444193 438207 437211 439214 436218 414238
      410234 408232 409226 413219 417214 420207 418199 417196
      415193 413193 410190 410186 410167 410159 407152 409143
      413135 417130 421123 422119 425116 432111 429102 427094
      425081 423077 419077 415076 411077 408077 404079 397078
      394076 391075 384074 380074 375071 371068 370065 368057
      367048 369045 372044 374042 379042 382040 385040 389037
      389034 390031 389029 388027 384022 376009 373001 369997
      365993 357992 353992 351989 346986 335985 333982 332977
      332975 335971 339966 344960 350955 363930 365924 367916
      366894 362848 360838 360833 358830 357819 359812 362797
      362791 365791 373790 378794 383798 384802 386804 389804
      389810 390816 392819 392829 397847 399856 403866 407877
      411884 417896 420903 423911 429923 433930 435937 442952
      446962 451971 460981 464986 469991 486013 491017 494018
      496020 509025 517028 521030 525031 530035 534040 538047
      543053 552066 555075 556082 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 500623 497623 491618 484620 481623 477625 447630
      440636 433642 428648 424650 419653 410654 400656 397656
      394658 387663 377672 366684 354694 343702 322730 318737
      314744 306758 302763 297768 285779 276786 269791 266793
      262794 254799 251800 248804 244811 242815 240817 239815
      235808 231798 227793 223793 222797 223804 223814 224823
      226825 227828 225833 226836 224839 225842 227843 230842
      232838 235831 242827 245824 248825 258834 268839 276842
      283845 285848 287854 280867 279875 279880 278885 277895
      276903 276913 277923 281930 283934 285939 289948 290952
      293954 301952 305951 309949 314943 315932 314923 314912
      313909 315905 318898 315881 312864 312857 310853 309841
      308828 310819 314810 318804 332795 338791 343787 349782
      352780 356779 358781 362780 366778 370779 376780 383782
      388775 392767 401752 403748 408748 412749 415753 417757
      418763 417773 418784 419790 420793 427811 432830 435840
      437845 441858 445866 448874 449877 451877 455875 457874
      459876 464882 465884 468883 468878 466868 460854 460849
      458845 455836 449820 447815 447810 446799 446786 446780
      451778 454777 456779 458784 459797 461809 464818 466824
      467829 469833 472835 484839 489834 494828 499822 503816
      509801 511796 513791 515780 518771 521755 525736 522710
      520689 519678 521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533853 532848 532843 530841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 445152 443157 442164 441171 439175
      437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 445176 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317046 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307081 304070 299065 293063 286063 275062 269061
      264059 256055 247052 237051 233054 231059 231063 234067
      240074 253086 267098 273103 282108 291111 295110 300108
      305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555117 554113 551107 547103 545101 542101 537105
      531108 519107 517109 514110 509116 505122 504127 503134
      503140 501144 500150 500157 502159 505158 512157 526161
      531162 537167 541173 544177 547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 520075 513072 512067 510064 503059 501057 499059
      496060 493058 491053 487046 482041 478034 470023 461008
      451995 442983 433973 428966 425959 421949 417940 414934
      410929 405923 403916 399906 396896 392889 388881 379848
      376848 375851 374862 377873 379884 379894 379906 375922
      368937 364946 360954 356959 352967 352974 357978 373985
      379988 385988 387987 394986 399991 406003 410010 415017
      425030 428036 431044 436060 440067 445073 450075 453076
      461082 468083 475083 489083 497084 502085 505087 510095
      515101 519101 523097 526092 527087
 0.25 488660 482647 480644 478645 476652 472654 468654 463650
      458647 452645 440651 429658 401671 390679 381688 376692
      371697 363708 355718 346727 330750 325760 321773 318787
      318791 321791 327786 335778 343770 355761 360758 365755
      368757 373760 378759 382754 384748 390733 393727 396721
      401718 406719 412722 418719 423714 427707 430701 428696
      422695 421692 422688 425683 432681 443688 446702 448707
      451708 455706 459702 462696 467690 472686 484679 486674
      486668 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 442743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299086 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 249073 252077 257081 266088 275094 279097
      287098 294099 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 296813 291813 286818 285820 284825 286827 289826
      292826 289831 288833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 295825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 478049 470041 465034 463028 461023 456013
      452010 450008 446008 444007 444004 442999 436988 430982
      426979 421975 419973 417976 416985 416994 419005 424015
      430023 435033 446052 462065 466067 471067 476066 480062
      481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 415676 408677 401680 396684 387690 382693 376698
      369705 361715 349735 344744 340749 337755 335760 334764
      338764 345760 352753 361743 366734 372731 377727 394710
      401702 409693 414686 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 390902 387901 385906 383913
      379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 360974 368977
      375979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 397952 401949
      404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 264071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388939 387934 386929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 030802
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

...VALID 12Z MON AUG 03 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSE HHF 20 W AMA 25 SSW DHT 25 SE SPD 40 E LBL 15 NW AVK
30 W JWG 40 SSE HHF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 WNW PIE 70 SW CTY 25 WNW OCF 20 ENE OCF 20 NNW GIF 10 S SPG
60 WSW PIE 80 WNW PIE.



...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING
OVER COASTAL SC/NC. IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE
PREPONDERANCE OF OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE
BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER  PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COAST.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AND MOVE ITO
SOUTHWEST OK AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTH TX AND NEARBY
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL COULD
BE INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...PEAKING AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)... AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.


HAYES

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE CLOSEST...
PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR REINFORCE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL PORTIONS OF
THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 355750 354746 351745 347746 343748 339752 335757 328768
      319778 318783 317788 318793 323795 320801 319804 321807
      327803 335793 341782 348771 352757 355750
 1.00 294822 295819 294816 290820 287822 283824 280827 279832
      278836 279840 282841 284841 288838 290835 292830 293826
      294822
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 345765 344762 341760 336767 333772 333783 329789 326795
      325801 330796 334791 336784 341777 344771 345765
 1.50 291824 289824 287825 284827 282829 280831 280834 281838
      283839 286837 287835 289833 290831 291826 291824
 2.00 287831 286830 284830 283831 283833 284834 285833 286833
      287831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 506290 504281 504271 505260 507255 509250 511246
      514243 517240 516238 520229 519226 517225 514225 511228
      509235 508230 510226 513223 519225 520228 522224 523222
      525217 529215 532214 534211 537207 538204 524199 509199
      500197 492194 489193 487190 482188 483178 482171 470163
      468161 466164 462171 459174 459180 456184 453188 451190
      448191 445192 443196 439203 437208 438213 438216 436218
      431222 424232 422234 421237 421240 414238 409232 408230
      409225 417214 419210 421204 417196 411191 409185 411172
      410166 410161 407152 409143 413135 417130 425115 429113
      432112 431109 429101 427094 426084 427082 424078 415076
      409077 401079 397078 393076 383074 381074 377071 371068
      370064 370059 367050 367048 369045 374042 379042 382040
      386040 389037 389034 390031 389029 388027 382020 379013
      376008 372999 367994 357992 353991 350989 345985 335985
      333982 333978 332975 334973 341964 345959 350955 358941
      360934 364927 366923 367918 366906 366883 361843 360834
      358828 357819 359812 361803 361798 363795 362792 369790
      373790 375791 381796 383798 385804 388804 389808 390815
      392819 392828 393833 394835 395841 396845 399852 403867
      406876 408880 411884 413891 416895 418899 424912 428921
      432929 435937 439944 450971 460981 469991 473998 479004
      488015 502022 507024 509026 517027 530034 534040 537045
      546057 549063 552066 555075 557085 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 499624 496622 493619 489618 485620 482623 475626
      470627 466626 455629 448630 441635 429646 425650 418653
      410654 401656 397656 395657 387663 363685 358691 352695
      348700 344701 338709 321732 316740 313746 306758 295770
      289774 284779 276786 269791 255798 252800 249803 247805
      245809 242815 239815 237812 231798 227793 223793 222797
      224819 224823 227826 225835 224840 226843 230842 232839
      235830 242827 244824 247823 248825 252829 255832 258834
      266838 272841 277843 284846 287854 285858 283861 279871
      279880 278888 276911 277923 281929 287944 290950 291953
      295954 309950 313944 314940 315932 314921 314914 313909
      318896 317891 316884 314873 311854 309844 308832 308827
      309825 311817 314811 318804 320801 325800 332795 339791
      346785 351780 355779 357781 361781 365778 374779 383782
      387776 394764 399756 401751 404748 408748 410749 415753
      418763 417773 418786 419792 422798 425806 427815 431826
      434836 437845 440856 443863 446869 449877 456875 459876
      464883 466885 468883 468878 466872 466868 462859 460855
      460850 456842 454833 450824 447813 446799 446788 446783
      447779 454777 457781 458786 460799 461810 464819 467829
      469833 472835 475835 478837 483839 486837 495825 501819
      506810 513791 521757 525738 524723 522710 519687 519677
      521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533852 532848 532843 529841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 447151 445152 443157 442164 441171
      439175 437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317045 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307079 304070 302067 297064 292063 286063 274062
      268061 264059 256055 247052 241051 236052 232054 231059
      231064 234068 240074 253086 267098 275104 282108 291110
      297110 300108 305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555115 551107 546102 542101 537105 531108 519107
      513111 509116 505123 504129 503134 503141 501145 500151
      500157 503159 506158 512157 526161 532162 537167 541174
      547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 519074 515072 513071 513069 510064 507062 500057
      498059 494059 487046 477034 473027 468020 460007 451995
      431970 427963 423955 421948 417940 414933 409928 406925
      404921 401911 398902 395895 388881 384863 381852 379848
      378846 376848 374857 375866 379884 379897 378908 376917
      373925 366941 363949 360954 355960 352968 352972 353976
      361980 368983 374986 381989 387987 390985 395986 400990
      410005 418018 425030 438064 442070 449075 455077 461082
      469083 476083 493084 498084 502085 506089 510096 515101
      520101 524097 527087
 0.25 488660 452645 444649 439652 426661 413666 401671 395676
      390680 384685 378689 373695 369699 363708 344729 337740
      330750 327755 324761 321776 318783 318789 320791 322790
      327786 336777 346767 356761 361757 365755 368757 374760
      379759 383752 386744 391732 396721 399719 402717 406719
      410722 414722 420718 428707 430701 428696 422694 421690
      422687 425684 428682 435681 438684 439687 442687 444689
      445696 446702 446705 449707 452708 455706 464694 474685
      480682 484679 486674 485667 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 441743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299085 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 251071 248072 249073 257081 266088 275094
      280097 287098 294098 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 295812 291813 286818 285821 284825 287827 289826
      291827 289831 287833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 294825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 477049 470041 467038 464032 461023 455012
      451009 446008 444007 444003 442997 436988 429981 421975
      419973 417974 417978 416986 417993 420005 424015 430024
      435033 446052 449056 455059 462065 466067 473067 477066
      480062 481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 414676 407678 396684 385691 376698 368707 361715
      349735 346741 343746 339749 337755 335761 335765 345760
      353752 361743 364738 367734 372731 377727 394710 409693
      415684 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 392905 390902 387902 385906
      383915 379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 361974
      368977 376979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 398950
      401949 404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 263071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388938 387934 385929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE CLOSEST...
PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR REINFORCE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL PORTIONS OF
THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 355750 354746 351745 347746 343748 339752 335757 328768
      319778 318783 317788 318793 323795 320801 319804 321807
      327803 335793 341782 348771 352757 355750
 1.00 294822 295819 294816 290820 287822 283824 280827 279832
      278836 279840 282841 284841 288838 290835 292830 293826
      294822
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 345765 344762 341760 336767 333772 333783 329789 326795
      325801 330796 334791 336784 341777 344771 345765
 1.50 291824 289824 287825 284827 282829 280831 280834 281838
      283839 286837 287835 289833 290831 291826 291824
 2.00 287831 286830 284830 283831 283833 284834 285833 286833
      287831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 506290 504281 504271 505260 507255 509250 511246
      514243 517240 516238 520229 519226 517225 514225 511228
      509235 508230 510226 513223 519225 520228 522224 523222
      525217 529215 532214 534211 537207 538204 524199 509199
      500197 492194 489193 487190 482188 483178 482171 470163
      468161 466164 462171 459174 459180 456184 453188 451190
      448191 445192 443196 439203 437208 438213 438216 436218
      431222 424232 422234 421237 421240 414238 409232 408230
      409225 417214 419210 421204 417196 411191 409185 411172
      410166 410161 407152 409143 413135 417130 425115 429113
      432112 431109 429101 427094 426084 427082 424078 415076
      409077 401079 397078 393076 383074 381074 377071 371068
      370064 370059 367050 367048 369045 374042 379042 382040
      386040 389037 389034 390031 389029 388027 382020 379013
      376008 372999 367994 357992 353991 350989 345985 335985
      333982 333978 332975 334973 341964 345959 350955 358941
      360934 364927 366923 367918 366906 366883 361843 360834
      358828 357819 359812 361803 361798 363795 362792 369790
      373790 375791 381796 383798 385804 388804 389808 390815
      392819 392828 393833 394835 395841 396845 399852 403867
      406876 408880 411884 413891 416895 418899 424912 428921
      432929 435937 439944 450971 460981 469991 473998 479004
      488015 502022 507024 509026 517027 530034 534040 537045
      546057 549063 552066 555075 557085 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 499624 496622 493619 489618 485620 482623 475626
      470627 466626 455629 448630 441635 429646 425650 418653
      410654 401656 397656 395657 387663 363685 358691 352695
      348700 344701 338709 321732 316740 313746 306758 295770
      289774 284779 276786 269791 255798 252800 249803 247805
      245809 242815 239815 237812 231798 227793 223793 222797
      224819 224823 227826 225835 224840 226843 230842 232839
      235830 242827 244824 247823 248825 252829 255832 258834
      266838 272841 277843 284846 287854 285858 283861 279871
      279880 278888 276911 277923 281929 287944 290950 291953
      295954 309950 313944 314940 315932 314921 314914 313909
      318896 317891 316884 314873 311854 309844 308832 308827
      309825 311817 314811 318804 320801 325800 332795 339791
      346785 351780 355779 357781 361781 365778 374779 383782
      387776 394764 399756 401751 404748 408748 410749 415753
      418763 417773 418786 419792 422798 425806 427815 431826
      434836 437845 440856 443863 446869 449877 456875 459876
      464883 466885 468883 468878 466872 466868 462859 460855
      460850 456842 454833 450824 447813 446799 446788 446783
      447779 454777 457781 458786 460799 461810 464819 467829
      469833 472835 475835 478837 483839 486837 495825 501819
      506810 513791 521757 525738 524723 522710 519687 519677
      521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533852 532848 532843 529841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 447151 445152 443157 442164 441171
      439175 437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317045 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307079 304070 302067 297064 292063 286063 274062
      268061 264059 256055 247052 241051 236052 232054 231059
      231064 234068 240074 253086 267098 275104 282108 291110
      297110 300108 305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555115 551107 546102 542101 537105 531108 519107
      513111 509116 505123 504129 503134 503141 501145 500151
      500157 503159 506158 512157 526161 532162 537167 541174
      547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 519074 515072 513071 513069 510064 507062 500057
      498059 494059 487046 477034 473027 468020 460007 451995
      431970 427963 423955 421948 417940 414933 409928 406925
      404921 401911 398902 395895 388881 384863 381852 379848
      378846 376848 374857 375866 379884 379897 378908 376917
      373925 366941 363949 360954 355960 352968 352972 353976
      361980 368983 374986 381989 387987 390985 395986 400990
      410005 418018 425030 438064 442070 449075 455077 461082
      469083 476083 493084 498084 502085 506089 510096 515101
      520101 524097 527087
 0.25 488660 452645 444649 439652 426661 413666 401671 395676
      390680 384685 378689 373695 369699 363708 344729 337740
      330750 327755 324761 321776 318783 318789 320791 322790
      327786 336777 346767 356761 361757 365755 368757 374760
      379759 383752 386744 391732 396721 399719 402717 406719
      410722 414722 420718 428707 430701 428696 422694 421690
      422687 425684 428682 435681 438684 439687 442687 444689
      445696 446702 446705 449707 452708 455706 464694 474685
      480682 484679 486674 485667 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 441743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299085 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 251071 248072 249073 257081 266088 275094
      280097 287098 294098 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 295812 291813 286818 285821 284825 287827 289826
      291827 289831 287833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 294825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 477049 470041 467038 464032 461023 455012
      451009 446008 444007 444003 442997 436988 429981 421975
      419973 417974 417978 416986 417993 420005 424015 430024
      435033 446052 449056 455059 462065 466067 473067 477066
      480062 481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 414676 407678 396684 385691 376698 368707 361715
      349735 346741 343746 339749 337755 335761 335765 345760
      353752 361743 364738 367734 372731 377727 394710 409693
      415684 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 392905 390902 387902 385906
      383915 379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 361974
      368977 376979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 398950
      401949 404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 263071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388938 387934 385929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE CLOSEST...
PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR REINFORCE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL PORTIONS OF
THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 355750 354746 351745 347746 343748 339752 335757 328768
      319778 318783 317788 318793 323795 320801 319804 321807
      327803 335793 341782 348771 352757 355750
 1.00 294822 295819 294816 290820 287822 283824 280827 279832
      278836 279840 282841 284841 288838 290835 292830 293826
      294822
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 345765 344762 341760 336767 333772 333783 329789 326795
      325801 330796 334791 336784 341777 344771 345765
 1.50 291824 289824 287825 284827 282829 280831 280834 281838
      283839 286837 287835 289833 290831 291826 291824
 2.00 287831 286830 284830 283831 283833 284834 285833 286833
      287831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 506290 504281 504271 505260 507255 509250 511246
      514243 517240 516238 520229 519226 517225 514225 511228
      509235 508230 510226 513223 519225 520228 522224 523222
      525217 529215 532214 534211 537207 538204 524199 509199
      500197 492194 489193 487190 482188 483178 482171 470163
      468161 466164 462171 459174 459180 456184 453188 451190
      448191 445192 443196 439203 437208 438213 438216 436218
      431222 424232 422234 421237 421240 414238 409232 408230
      409225 417214 419210 421204 417196 411191 409185 411172
      410166 410161 407152 409143 413135 417130 425115 429113
      432112 431109 429101 427094 426084 427082 424078 415076
      409077 401079 397078 393076 383074 381074 377071 371068
      370064 370059 367050 367048 369045 374042 379042 382040
      386040 389037 389034 390031 389029 388027 382020 379013
      376008 372999 367994 357992 353991 350989 345985 335985
      333982 333978 332975 334973 341964 345959 350955 358941
      360934 364927 366923 367918 366906 366883 361843 360834
      358828 357819 359812 361803 361798 363795 362792 369790
      373790 375791 381796 383798 385804 388804 389808 390815
      392819 392828 393833 394835 395841 396845 399852 403867
      406876 408880 411884 413891 416895 418899 424912 428921
      432929 435937 439944 450971 460981 469991 473998 479004
      488015 502022 507024 509026 517027 530034 534040 537045
      546057 549063 552066 555075 557085 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 499624 496622 493619 489618 485620 482623 475626
      470627 466626 455629 448630 441635 429646 425650 418653
      410654 401656 397656 395657 387663 363685 358691 352695
      348700 344701 338709 321732 316740 313746 306758 295770
      289774 284779 276786 269791 255798 252800 249803 247805
      245809 242815 239815 237812 231798 227793 223793 222797
      224819 224823 227826 225835 224840 226843 230842 232839
      235830 242827 244824 247823 248825 252829 255832 258834
      266838 272841 277843 284846 287854 285858 283861 279871
      279880 278888 276911 277923 281929 287944 290950 291953
      295954 309950 313944 314940 315932 314921 314914 313909
      318896 317891 316884 314873 311854 309844 308832 308827
      309825 311817 314811 318804 320801 325800 332795 339791
      346785 351780 355779 357781 361781 365778 374779 383782
      387776 394764 399756 401751 404748 408748 410749 415753
      418763 417773 418786 419792 422798 425806 427815 431826
      434836 437845 440856 443863 446869 449877 456875 459876
      464883 466885 468883 468878 466872 466868 462859 460855
      460850 456842 454833 450824 447813 446799 446788 446783
      447779 454777 457781 458786 460799 461810 464819 467829
      469833 472835 475835 478837 483839 486837 495825 501819
      506810 513791 521757 525738 524723 522710 519687 519677
      521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533852 532848 532843 529841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 447151 445152 443157 442164 441171
      439175 437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317045 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307079 304070 302067 297064 292063 286063 274062
      268061 264059 256055 247052 241051 236052 232054 231059
      231064 234068 240074 253086 267098 275104 282108 291110
      297110 300108 305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555115 551107 546102 542101 537105 531108 519107
      513111 509116 505123 504129 503134 503141 501145 500151
      500157 503159 506158 512157 526161 532162 537167 541174
      547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 519074 515072 513071 513069 510064 507062 500057
      498059 494059 487046 477034 473027 468020 460007 451995
      431970 427963 423955 421948 417940 414933 409928 406925
      404921 401911 398902 395895 388881 384863 381852 379848
      378846 376848 374857 375866 379884 379897 378908 376917
      373925 366941 363949 360954 355960 352968 352972 353976
      361980 368983 374986 381989 387987 390985 395986 400990
      410005 418018 425030 438064 442070 449075 455077 461082
      469083 476083 493084 498084 502085 506089 510096 515101
      520101 524097 527087
 0.25 488660 452645 444649 439652 426661 413666 401671 395676
      390680 384685 378689 373695 369699 363708 344729 337740
      330750 327755 324761 321776 318783 318789 320791 322790
      327786 336777 346767 356761 361757 365755 368757 374760
      379759 383752 386744 391732 396721 399719 402717 406719
      410722 414722 420718 428707 430701 428696 422694 421690
      422687 425684 428682 435681 438684 439687 442687 444689
      445696 446702 446705 449707 452708 455706 464694 474685
      480682 484679 486674 485667 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 441743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299085 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 251071 248072 249073 257081 266088 275094
      280097 287098 294098 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 295812 291813 286818 285821 284825 287827 289826
      291827 289831 287833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 294825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 477049 470041 467038 464032 461023 455012
      451009 446008 444007 444003 442997 436988 429981 421975
      419973 417974 417978 416986 417993 420005 424015 430024
      435033 446052 449056 455059 462065 466067 473067 477066
      480062 481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 414676 407678 396684 385691 376698 368707 361715
      349735 346741 343746 339749 337755 335761 335765 345760
      353752 361743 364738 367734 372731 377727 394710 409693
      415684 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 392905 390902 387902 385906
      383915 379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 361974
      368977 376979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 398950
      401949 404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 263071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388938 387934 385929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE CLOSEST...
PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR REINFORCE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL PORTIONS OF
THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 355750 354746 351745 347746 343748 339752 335757 328768
      319778 318783 317788 318793 323795 320801 319804 321807
      327803 335793 341782 348771 352757 355750
 1.00 294822 295819 294816 290820 287822 283824 280827 279832
      278836 279840 282841 284841 288838 290835 292830 293826
      294822
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 345765 344762 341760 336767 333772 333783 329789 326795
      325801 330796 334791 336784 341777 344771 345765
 1.50 291824 289824 287825 284827 282829 280831 280834 281838
      283839 286837 287835 289833 290831 291826 291824
 2.00 287831 286830 284830 283831 283833 284834 285833 286833
      287831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 506290 504281 504271 505260 507255 509250 511246
      514243 517240 516238 520229 519226 517225 514225 511228
      509235 508230 510226 513223 519225 520228 522224 523222
      525217 529215 532214 534211 537207 538204 524199 509199
      500197 492194 489193 487190 482188 483178 482171 470163
      468161 466164 462171 459174 459180 456184 453188 451190
      448191 445192 443196 439203 437208 438213 438216 436218
      431222 424232 422234 421237 421240 414238 409232 408230
      409225 417214 419210 421204 417196 411191 409185 411172
      410166 410161 407152 409143 413135 417130 425115 429113
      432112 431109 429101 427094 426084 427082 424078 415076
      409077 401079 397078 393076 383074 381074 377071 371068
      370064 370059 367050 367048 369045 374042 379042 382040
      386040 389037 389034 390031 389029 388027 382020 379013
      376008 372999 367994 357992 353991 350989 345985 335985
      333982 333978 332975 334973 341964 345959 350955 358941
      360934 364927 366923 367918 366906 366883 361843 360834
      358828 357819 359812 361803 361798 363795 362792 369790
      373790 375791 381796 383798 385804 388804 389808 390815
      392819 392828 393833 394835 395841 396845 399852 403867
      406876 408880 411884 413891 416895 418899 424912 428921
      432929 435937 439944 450971 460981 469991 473998 479004
      488015 502022 507024 509026 517027 530034 534040 537045
      546057 549063 552066 555075 557085 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 499624 496622 493619 489618 485620 482623 475626
      470627 466626 455629 448630 441635 429646 425650 418653
      410654 401656 397656 395657 387663 363685 358691 352695
      348700 344701 338709 321732 316740 313746 306758 295770
      289774 284779 276786 269791 255798 252800 249803 247805
      245809 242815 239815 237812 231798 227793 223793 222797
      224819 224823 227826 225835 224840 226843 230842 232839
      235830 242827 244824 247823 248825 252829 255832 258834
      266838 272841 277843 284846 287854 285858 283861 279871
      279880 278888 276911 277923 281929 287944 290950 291953
      295954 309950 313944 314940 315932 314921 314914 313909
      318896 317891 316884 314873 311854 309844 308832 308827
      309825 311817 314811 318804 320801 325800 332795 339791
      346785 351780 355779 357781 361781 365778 374779 383782
      387776 394764 399756 401751 404748 408748 410749 415753
      418763 417773 418786 419792 422798 425806 427815 431826
      434836 437845 440856 443863 446869 449877 456875 459876
      464883 466885 468883 468878 466872 466868 462859 460855
      460850 456842 454833 450824 447813 446799 446788 446783
      447779 454777 457781 458786 460799 461810 464819 467829
      469833 472835 475835 478837 483839 486837 495825 501819
      506810 513791 521757 525738 524723 522710 519687 519677
      521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533852 532848 532843 529841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 447151 445152 443157 442164 441171
      439175 437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317045 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307079 304070 302067 297064 292063 286063 274062
      268061 264059 256055 247052 241051 236052 232054 231059
      231064 234068 240074 253086 267098 275104 282108 291110
      297110 300108 305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555115 551107 546102 542101 537105 531108 519107
      513111 509116 505123 504129 503134 503141 501145 500151
      500157 503159 506158 512157 526161 532162 537167 541174
      547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 519074 515072 513071 513069 510064 507062 500057
      498059 494059 487046 477034 473027 468020 460007 451995
      431970 427963 423955 421948 417940 414933 409928 406925
      404921 401911 398902 395895 388881 384863 381852 379848
      378846 376848 374857 375866 379884 379897 378908 376917
      373925 366941 363949 360954 355960 352968 352972 353976
      361980 368983 374986 381989 387987 390985 395986 400990
      410005 418018 425030 438064 442070 449075 455077 461082
      469083 476083 493084 498084 502085 506089 510096 515101
      520101 524097 527087
 0.25 488660 452645 444649 439652 426661 413666 401671 395676
      390680 384685 378689 373695 369699 363708 344729 337740
      330750 327755 324761 321776 318783 318789 320791 322790
      327786 336777 346767 356761 361757 365755 368757 374760
      379759 383752 386744 391732 396721 399719 402717 406719
      410722 414722 420718 428707 430701 428696 422694 421690
      422687 425684 428682 435681 438684 439687 442687 444689
      445696 446702 446705 449707 452708 455706 464694 474685
      480682 484679 486674 485667 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 441743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299085 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 251071 248072 249073 257081 266088 275094
      280097 287098 294098 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 295812 291813 286818 285821 284825 287827 289826
      291827 289831 287833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 294825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 477049 470041 467038 464032 461023 455012
      451009 446008 444007 444003 442997 436988 429981 421975
      419973 417974 417978 416986 417993 420005 424015 430024
      435033 446052 449056 455059 462065 466067 473067 477066
      480062 481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 414676 407678 396684 385691 376698 368707 361715
      349735 346741 343746 339749 337755 335761 335765 345760
      353752 361743 364738 367734 372731 377727 394710 409693
      415684 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 392905 390902 387902 385906
      383915 379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 361974
      368977 376979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 398950
      401949 404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 263071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388938 387934 385929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 030638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 355750 354746 351745 347746 343748 339752 335757 328768
      319778 318783 317788 318793 323795 320801 319804 321807
      327803 335793 341782 348771 352757 355750
 1.00 294822 295819 294816 290820 287822 283824 280827 279832
      278836 279840 282841 284841 288838 290835 292830 293826
      294822
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 345765 344762 341760 336767 333772 333783 329789 326795
      325801 330796 334791 336784 341777 344771 345765
 1.50 291824 289824 287825 284827 282829 280831 280834 281838
      283839 286837 287835 289833 290831 291826 291824
 2.00 287831 286830 284830 283831 283833 284834 285833 286833
      287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 030638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF HE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE
00Z WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOULD
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE
TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY INTO
NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY
WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN
WARRANTED.



...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD THE MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...THEN TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND R00Z REGIONAL GEM).
CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2.0O INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/MMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT OR EVEN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 531230 530226 524219 521210
      517201 512194 509191 506192 499194 496195 495192 494188
      489186 480183 473179 465176 463180 464185 463193 460198
      456202 455205 457206 460209 464210 469210 477211 480210
      482211 477215 464224 458227 452229 421232 413231 410225
      399209 393204 391201 389197 388175 388166 389160 390157
      394147 396143 395140 393140 388139 386140 384142 382142
      379140 376137 372136 369126 373119 374114 379112 387109
      390108 391103 391098 386097 380101 377102 374103 373091
      368074 365067 364062 360061 357060 355056 357053 361051
      363048 362044 357040 343070 346077 347081 347087 348092
      347096 345107 338106 333104 328105 325106 323110 322115
      320117 311115 307113 305109 304106 307103 312094 314091
      314085 316080 316076 315069 313065 312071 310082 308091
      303096 300098 294097 277095 270092 265088 257084 250078
      244072 238066 229055 228052 230050 239051 276058 284059
      293061 297061 299059 302056 306054 310056 311061 313059
      314052 313041 313031 313024 316021 323016 327014 327008
      328997 329988 330982 333980 345970 350966 358964 374960
      382955 383952 384946 387925 384916 382911 381906 379902
      378899 376898 374893 374889 372885 371879 370876 370872
      370865 369860 370853 369846 369834 370831 370824 371815
      373807 377797 380788 383779 388772 395757 396750 397747
      400741 408726 412720 414715 417712 422708 428702 438689
      442681 448675 460664 467659 472652 484638 491629 495625
      502622 519668 519676 519684 514689 516696 516704 514712
      513718 509724 505728 500727 497728 494730 491734 486738
 0.01 486738 465763 455776 445791 442799 439803 436805 432812
      432816 437813 444812 449820 455825 460832 470846 473854
      474858 475865 468898 463898 460899 456896 453889 451877
      450863 446855 446849 443846 438839 433833 431829 430823
      431820 431817 430815 424822 419829 414835 409841 404848
      398854 394863 392871 392877 393881 404893 415907 419914
      423923 429940 432947 435957 441978 443986 446998 449017
      452039 453051 456061 459071 461080 465100 468107 469113
      472116 475120 480122 488126 495122 502121 509123 515119
      521117 524113 527113 536115 541116 544119 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 523855 528854 532854
      534848 534840
 0.01 411699 407672 405670 399671 396673 391676 384682 380688
      375697 369705 355716 349721 340726 327736 323738 320743
      315751 304764 298769 294771 289772 283774 273774 267775
      263777 257779 253781 239787 232791 229793 226797 226800
      228803 233804 233810 236814 239819 243825 246819 248817
      250818 253822 260839 262844 263850 265858 268864 269869
      270882 270903 273912 273925 269945 269951 268956 268962
      271966 272968 277966 283961 285958 287954 292947 298901
      298891 303884 307873 307870 307866 309867 312871 314869
      317860 315834 318824 324818 331813 336807 347794 350791
      353786 357777 365760 369753 375748 387735 399719 405710
      409704 411699
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 492654 487658 482662 475670
      469673 466677 459686 445703 430720 427724 424730 421734
      417738 410747 408752 407759 406764 409768 411774 415780
      399791 397790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380815 381823
      384825 387822 389816 391813 395814 400814 409809 411818
      415818 418814 420807 422799 431793 437785 448765 452765
      456761 462751 467742 470736 472729 477719 482716 484719
      487718 502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457125 456115 456106 456101 454097 450092
      444087 437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 400045
      396044 393046 392047 388046 386049 385068 386074 390079
      394086 395094 398100 398108 406119 409115 412114 415116
      427124 433121 440120 443120 445123 443131 440139 441143
      443147 446150 451152 455152 457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433004 434998 433991 433985 432980 428972 424964 416949
      409934 405936 404941 405952 403959 402966 402972 404983
      407991 410000 414008 417016 419027 421035 424037 425032
      427021 430011 433004
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378713 375712 370714 364717 359720 349727 338736
      329743 322753 316762 308773 302783 294792 292797 293802
      293806 289806 282804 277801 271800 265799 258800 253802
      251806 252810 254812 257813 264813 271814 270819 269832
      268838 268845 270853 273859 280870 281887 282903 283910
      285913 288912 291905 292898 292881 292874 290865 289858
      291851 300827 303823 309820 315817 321814 326810 330806
      338797 345788 352776 357765 363754 369744 375731 379716
 0.25 386027 387012 385999 382990 379987 375983 367980 361980
      357982 351988 348992 347998 346005 345009 343013 338015
      334019 335023 340023 345025 352031 360034 364037 367041
      372049 379055 383056 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299080 298073 294071 289071 280070 271071 265069 261069
      261073 266078 270083 277087 284090 288090 292090 297086
      299080
 0.50 498683 497664 495661 491662 485668 465688 456699 447710
      442715 440722 436727 433735 432740 431743 427748 424751
      421752 417754 414758 416762 418765 426765 430769 432768
      434765 442754 445747 449741 454737 456740 459739 462733
      464730 462728 459726 461723 466718 474705 478700 481694
      483692 484696 486699 489698 493695 496691 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 446097 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416105
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404111 406113 410109 414110
      419113 424117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414987 414982 414977 413975 412971 410969 409968 405968
      405970 405973 406977 407980 408984 410987 412989 414987
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 368732 369728 368724 364724 358726 353729 346737 337743
      330751 325761 318770 315774 312779 308789 302798 301803
      306805 313813 318813 323811 331804 337795 343785 353766
      358756 363746 367738 368732
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 298817 298812 293813 287816 281819 276825 274832 273841
      275849 277851 282851 287846 291841 294834 296826 297819
      298817
 0.50 293081 293077 291076 287075 283075 280076 278076 275077
      272079 274082 277084 279084 282085 286085 288084 290083
      293081
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 2