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000
FOUS30 KWBC 021447
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
VVG 10 NW LAL 10 W SRQ 90 SSE AAF 10 SW 40J 45 SE VLD 20 SW VQQ
25 SE GNV VVG.


...FLORIDA...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FEED SURGES OF CONVECTION THAT TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR QUITE SOME TIME...AS THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS INCLUDES THE STRETCH OF COAST FROM NEAR AND NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY UP THROUGH CEDAR KEY AND STEINHATCHEE. CONVECTION
HERE MAY BE SHALLOW AT TIMES...BUT STILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION GIVEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING.
EFFICIENCY MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE. A BASIN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE LARGER SCALE
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA...BUT
THERE ARE FACTORS COMBATING A MORE ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EXCESSIVE
RAIN THREAT. LAPSE RATES HAD GROWN LESS STEEP WITH TIME AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND LAPSE RATES WERE NOT BEING
REPLENISHED GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH / SHEAR ZONE. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE
WITH DECENT FORWARD MOTION ALONG OUTFLOWS...CUTTING DOWN ON
RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN POINT.


...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST MAY RECEIVE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. LATER IN THE NIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE UP TO AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SUCH AS THE
00Z WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL ONSHORE IN SC LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. QUESTIONS ABOUT
PLACEMENT AND RECENT TRENDS TOWARD POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE LEVELS CAUSED WPC TO STOP SHORT OF ADDING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THIS AREA...BUT RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN RATES WHEREVER CONVECTION DOES FORM.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES REMAINS CONNECTED TO A
PLUME EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH SONORA.
PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE THEN DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWING A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LAID OUT
ROUGHTLY WNW TO ESE. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES/BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 021447
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
VVG 10 NW LAL 10 W SRQ 90 SSE AAF 10 SW 40J 45 SE VLD 20 SW VQQ
25 SE GNV VVG.


...FLORIDA...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FEED SURGES OF CONVECTION THAT TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR QUITE SOME TIME...AS THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS INCLUDES THE STRETCH OF COAST FROM NEAR AND NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY UP THROUGH CEDAR KEY AND STEINHATCHEE. CONVECTION
HERE MAY BE SHALLOW AT TIMES...BUT STILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION GIVEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING.
EFFICIENCY MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE. A BASIN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE LARGER SCALE
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA...BUT
THERE ARE FACTORS COMBATING A MORE ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EXCESSIVE
RAIN THREAT. LAPSE RATES HAD GROWN LESS STEEP WITH TIME AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND LAPSE RATES WERE NOT BEING
REPLENISHED GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH / SHEAR ZONE. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE
WITH DECENT FORWARD MOTION ALONG OUTFLOWS...CUTTING DOWN ON
RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN POINT.


...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST MAY RECEIVE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. LATER IN THE NIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE UP TO AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SUCH AS THE
00Z WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL ONSHORE IN SC LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. QUESTIONS ABOUT
PLACEMENT AND RECENT TRENDS TOWARD POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE LEVELS CAUSED WPC TO STOP SHORT OF ADDING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THIS AREA...BUT RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN RATES WHEREVER CONVECTION DOES FORM.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES REMAINS CONNECTED TO A
PLUME EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH SONORA.
PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE THEN DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWING A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LAID OUT
ROUGHTLY WNW TO ESE. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES/BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 021447
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
VVG 10 NW LAL 10 W SRQ 90 SSE AAF 10 SW 40J 45 SE VLD 20 SW VQQ
25 SE GNV VVG.


...FLORIDA...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FEED SURGES OF CONVECTION THAT TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR QUITE SOME TIME...AS THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS INCLUDES THE STRETCH OF COAST FROM NEAR AND NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY UP THROUGH CEDAR KEY AND STEINHATCHEE. CONVECTION
HERE MAY BE SHALLOW AT TIMES...BUT STILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION GIVEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING.
EFFICIENCY MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE. A BASIN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE LARGER SCALE
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA...BUT
THERE ARE FACTORS COMBATING A MORE ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EXCESSIVE
RAIN THREAT. LAPSE RATES HAD GROWN LESS STEEP WITH TIME AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND LAPSE RATES WERE NOT BEING
REPLENISHED GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH / SHEAR ZONE. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE
WITH DECENT FORWARD MOTION ALONG OUTFLOWS...CUTTING DOWN ON
RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN POINT.


...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST MAY RECEIVE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. LATER IN THE NIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE UP TO AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SUCH AS THE
00Z WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL ONSHORE IN SC LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. QUESTIONS ABOUT
PLACEMENT AND RECENT TRENDS TOWARD POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE LEVELS CAUSED WPC TO STOP SHORT OF ADDING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THIS AREA...BUT RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN RATES WHEREVER CONVECTION DOES FORM.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES REMAINS CONNECTED TO A
PLUME EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH SONORA.
PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE THEN DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWING A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LAID OUT
ROUGHTLY WNW TO ESE. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES/BURKE
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 021447
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
VVG 10 NW LAL 10 W SRQ 90 SSE AAF 10 SW 40J 45 SE VLD 20 SW VQQ
25 SE GNV VVG.


...FLORIDA...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FEED SURGES OF CONVECTION THAT TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR QUITE SOME TIME...AS THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THIS INCLUDES THE STRETCH OF COAST FROM NEAR AND NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY UP THROUGH CEDAR KEY AND STEINHATCHEE. CONVECTION
HERE MAY BE SHALLOW AT TIMES...BUT STILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION GIVEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING.
EFFICIENCY MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ONSHORE. A BASIN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE LARGER SCALE
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY INTENSE RAIN RATES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA...BUT
THERE ARE FACTORS COMBATING A MORE ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE EXCESSIVE
RAIN THREAT. LAPSE RATES HAD GROWN LESS STEEP WITH TIME AFTER A
FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND LAPSE RATES WERE NOT BEING
REPLENISHED GIVEN RELATIVELY LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH / SHEAR ZONE. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE
WITH DECENT FORWARD MOTION ALONG OUTFLOWS...CUTTING DOWN ON
RESIDENCE TIME OVER A GIVEN POINT.


...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...

A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST MAY RECEIVE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. LATER IN THE NIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE UP TO AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SUCH AS THE
00Z WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL ONSHORE IN SC LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. QUESTIONS ABOUT
PLACEMENT AND RECENT TRENDS TOWARD POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE LEVELS CAUSED WPC TO STOP SHORT OF ADDING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THIS AREA...BUT RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN RATES WHEREVER CONVECTION DOES FORM.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES REMAINS CONNECTED TO A
PLUME EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH SONORA.
PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE THEN DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWING A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LAID OUT
ROUGHTLY WNW TO ESE. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FARTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES/BURKE
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020931
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH SOLUTION
HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF. FOR
NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM QPF. GIVEN
THE SPREAD IN PLACE... A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE
MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW TO
BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.



DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT AT ALL.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS
CAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE
ROUNDS FOR PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A
BETTER OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.  PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
AREAS TO DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A
MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX NEAR KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF
HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST (EVEN WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS),
WITH THE 00Z UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE
WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514104 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      505152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526192 526198
      529199 532192 537191 539194 538198 537202 536205 536209
      537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188
      539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 529777 527775 523776 521778 520779 518783
      515789 513793 512797 512802 509805 505818 501837 502856
      506872 511887 518902 528931 531940 534945 539947 544941
      544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 506651 498654 493658 488665 481674
      476681 470687 465693 459701 451714 446724 442731 432744
      428753 424761 421768 418776 414787 411796 408805 406815
      401834 398841 392846 388849 387854 385864 382873 382886
      380890 378893 375897 374901 379906 380917 378922 379928
      380934 382938 384940 388943 390944 389947 388952 386959
      386966 386971 387977 389979 394985 396986 400983 403979
      405975 409967 413964 416963 418960 419956 423945 423939
      424933 425924 426919 429914 433912 438912 443913 446916
      450918 452923 457928 461928 465925 475916 479912 481909
      487902 488899 490892 490879 488868 491857 492845 494836
      495824 496817 496811 495797 495791 493787 492782 495779
      501772 510759 513755 515750 523745 527743 529740 533731
      533725 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445220 442215 435205 430201 424200 415198 413195
      413192 416189 417186 417179 416175 417170 411143 414129
      416111 418109 418104 419096 418083 417076 414067 416061
      416057 415054 411050 406044 400035 400027 400023 398023
      391033 385035 381032 379026 379021 370993 366988 362984
      352979 347977 341976 337978 333982 329994 329000 330006
      331012 330018 328025 328028 331030 335034 338036 338042
      338050 336054 333053 325047 320043 316045 318050 321054
      329061 336062 336067 332068 322067 318070 315071 311071
      308071 300070 295069 292064 279063 269059 262058 259057
      242054 237053 234057 235061 237063 241068 248076 256083
      260086 266089 279091 282092 283095 284100 288104 291106
      296110 302114 307117 314121 322128 331113 344129 347132
      350130 353124 356121 357117 356115 353108 358106 361106
      363110 363114 364117 363122 362125 364127 364132 363135
      359141 356144 356151 361160 365164 368169 368179 365182
      362182 374194 381202 391210 400218 403221 404227 404234
      407239 415243 422246 425244 425237 425233 427231 430229
      446226
 0.01 385675 367679 359681 355688 342700 332713 324727 318741
      310755 305763 300770 295775 284777 276780 268781 263784
      259785 251789 249791 249796 248802 246805 245807 246811
      248816 251818 258817 263820 266823 266827 264835 262839
      262844 263856 265879 266899 266909 265918 264929 261939
      259946 258958 257962 257967 260966 263964 268962 272961
      275956 284943 288937 290933 296933 299933 301929 301925
      303922 303910 301906 302900 306891 307886 307882 309879
      307875 307868 308864 313849 322832 326826 329823 334822
      340817 343814 344810 344805 345801 348794 354777 362760
      366753 369745 373738 376731 383714 385704 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 504718 503714 498712 489718 479725 468726 459731
      456735 452740 447751 441761 435771 431781 420804 416814
      412824 408835 407843 406852 407865 405876 404885 403890
      393897 395902 399907 405913 410917 412917 413914 417910
      420907 428904 434895 438891 442889 454884 457880 459873
      462861 464845 466831 478777 481765 483760 487755 494746
      500736 502729 504723
 0.25 479889 479882 477877 475872 473868 472865 470870 469875
      469883 469890 470895 471898 473899 476895 478891 479889
 0.25 418223 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211 407215
      408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229 418225 418223
 0.25 409110 410102 407097 402107 400109 397108 392105 388102
      390096 392088 392079 393075 396072 398070 398067 398063
      396057 392052 389049 382047 372045 367041 364035 364025
      366011 364007 361006 358006 352009 348008 345008 344004
      346002 347994 347990 344989 341990 337993 340999 341003
      341007 340013 342017 357031 360035 362042 356055 357058
      359058 365056 370056 376056 379060 377062 374062 369061
      366063 362062 358062 357064 358069 361072 365075 368081
      370086 374091 376095 378102 382106 386104 386108 385110
      381110 378112 376119 373126 372132 375133 378132 381131
      389123 399118 403112 407112 409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364721 363717 360716 358713 357709 351709
      343712 339717 332730 320751 313762 306776 300786 297790
      295793 291794 282795 275797 261801 255804 254806 256808
      266812 275813 278814 277818 274824 272830 271837 271847
      272863 274882 276891 275900 273906 273915 273923 272929
      270943 270946 273948 276942 281929 282923 282918 282914
      284906 286900 289893 291886 310834 316821 322812 330803
      337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 468754 464755 455768 449771 444775 440780
      435787 429799 425805 421813 417828 415834 413844 416853
      416863 415879 416890 416894 418896 422895 425893 429886
      430879 431875 434873 445877 448877 451875 454867 455859
      456847 461811 461801 462792 463783 466774 469768 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757 316765
      310779 306786 303795 302805 301813 288815 282819 277824
      274832 273839 274845 277864 278869 281871 284869 287866
      297855 303840 306831 309825 309819 310816 317811 327799
      336786 350756 353750 354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 447819 447817 446814 446812 445812 444812 443812 442814
      442815 442817 442818 443820 444822 444823 446822 446821
      447819
 1.00 448862 448860 447858 446855 444855 444856 444858 443860
      445863 447864 448862
 1.00 438835 438832 438831 437832 438835 438835
 1.00 346752 346746 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 301834 302829 300825 294822 291820 287820 281823 278830
      277838 277844 279852 284857 287856 290854 294848 297842
      301835 301834
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299834 299830 298828 294824 287823 283824 282826 280832
      279840 281848 285851 289850 290848 294844 297838 299834
 2.00 297834 296828 294826 289825 285827 282831 281836 281842
      284846 286847 289846 292844 294841 297836 297834
 3.00 294836 295834 295832 294830 293828 291827 289826 289827
      287827 286829 286830 285831 284833 284835 284837 284839
      286841 288840 290840 291839 292838 293837 294836

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 501304 497302 498300 502293 505290 508285 510277
      509270 509259 509254 511248 513243 515240 511236 508233
      510224 516214 519212 518206 514197 510193 506193 504195
      500194 497195 495192 492183 486177 481173 478170 475168
      467163 464167 463172 464176 462180 455186 452189 447189
      445189 440190 441195 444198 454205 459208 465211 470210
      476212 477215 475216 471218 460226 454228 447230 440232
      431231 422232 413231 405224 401216 400210 395206 389199
      389177 388165 391153 372141 370136 370131 370123 372116
      378112 382111 386109 390107 393104 396100 396097 392097
      386096 382099 379102 376103 373103 373091 370081 367073
      365068 365063 373062 377061 375058 367046 361040 357038
      351038 349039 348042 349047 351058 349063 347066 343069
      344073 347083 348092 347095 344107 334110 326113 320119
      317121 315118 314116 309113 305112 302110 296109 291109
      285108 278105 264094 252082 239069 233062 230059 228054
      228050 233050 245051 253053 261053 279054 300056 304055
      310055 316056 318055 319051 316042 322033 327028 334023
      341018 341014 339008 338003 338996 338989 340984 347981
      357982 361986 366992 368996 372999 377006 382013 387022
      394027 403031 407023 409019 410014 409008 407002 401992
      398982 395972 392963 390954 391949 393947 397946 400948
      406953 411959 416967 421977 425987 427992 427998 428009
      430020 431026 431029 433030 444033 447039 447046 449058
      451070 453078 456085 459094 462104 465114 469122 471124
      472121 476121 483127 491129 496133 504136 507136 509138
      513137 522139 530136 532133 537133 539132 541130 543133
      545130
 0.01 545130 546131 548129 550129 551132 553132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 493626 489631 486635 484641 478648 477652 474657
      472661 468665 464668 461671 456677 452684 446690 436705
      432711 426719 415734 407747 402756 399765 398768 397773
      391780 379795 369806 367809 370814 370817 368820 368824
      369831 371834 376842 379843 382841 391836 393838 393841
      393847 390856 389861 391861 395862 394865 401867 404863
      406858 410851 415847 418840 421834 427827 432819 436810
      437805 441801 452788 455785 459784 467782 470781 469786
      466797 465802 463806 462811 464817 471840 474845 477842
      481842 491841 499838 502838 503842 505847 506853 509856
      516854 521853 524855 530854 532854 534851 535845 534843
      533839 531835 519821 520809 520805 522802 521797 524786
      524782 525778 527751 528739 529733 528724 524696 523685
      522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 478772 476770 474770 473771 472773 471774 470776 472778
      473778 475775 476775 478772
 0.01 450173 448168 448163 442156 436149 435138 438127 434126
      432130 428139 426148 426155 427160 428165 430170 437177
      447179 450173
 0.01 407674 406670 401671 397672 394674 389677 386680 380688
      376697 369705 353717 347722 340726 325737 320743 315752
      308761 303768 300771 295772 287772 278775 274774 267775
      259778 250783 240787 234790 227795 224803 222806 222813
      225825 226825 227832 227837 229838 231836 232831 232828
      234824 239820 243825 246819 248817 251818 253823 258832
      260836 261840 263846 263854 267862 269868 270876 270887
      269898 271907 273912 273919 270944 269950 268954 268962
      270966 272968 275966 278966 281962 284959 286955 292948
      294944 294937 294929 295922 297912 298899 298893 300890
      303884 307873 306861 304849 304842 306835 308831 311827
      316821 328810 339796 351782 360763 370750 377743 381735
      387728 392719 397709 400700 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511654 509646 507637 506635 503634 499638 496645
      493651 490656 483662 479668 475671 471674 467679 458689
      445705 438715 433726 429735 426740 422744 414751 411756
      409759 409763 414763 417765 418774 416779 413785 408789
      401790 397793 391800 389807 389810 394812 399811 405808
      408807 411807 411815 412822 415822 417820 420815 425802
      431793 435783 437776 439772 442767 447763 452760 456759
      460757 463753 466748 467742 472728 479719 481715 486713
      488706 491701 499692 506683 508679 509674 511663
 0.25 457138 458130 458122 456110 452099 449094 443092 440090
      435091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421108 419110 416109
      412106 411101 409096 407095 406098 404104 401106 397106
      395112 397116 403118 413120 418119 423122 425124 430120
      433116 436114 441115 444120 440145 443148 449150 454147
      456140 457138
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 432214 432212 431210 430209 429209 427208 426208 425208
      424209 423210 423212 423213 424215 424216 426217 428217
      429217 431217 432215 432214
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422074 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 407077 411076 419079 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428029 428023 427018 424001 423994 421985 418979
      414973 406963 401960 397961 396963 397971 400979 405991
      411004 414011 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 385708 383704 379705 368714 345730 337737 331741
      326746 313770 307779 298788 295793 292800 291804 289807
      285808 282806 272801 265799 257801 253804 251807 253811
      258814 268814 275813 282811 285812 285817 281823 277827
      274834 273842 275849 278853 281858 285864 284870 283879
      282889 286906 288904 289896 290888 291881 290876 289873
      286864 287859 290854 294843 298829 302823 306819 317811
      325803 335793 342784 350771 356762 363751 379727 383720
      385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352999
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299090 300086 300082 298075 292071 286069 271066 257062
      243058 238058 242064 249073 258082 268089 273092 280096
      285098 290098 292097 299090
 0.50 497670 496665 495665 490667 485674 481679 476678 473680
      471682 467687 462691 446712 441723 436737 434742 429746
      424750 417753 416757 419758 422758 425760 429766 431767
      434766 438763 440755 442750 448744 456737 461731 464725
      470714 475700 479688 485684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 444099 443101 442102 442103 441105 440107 440108
      441110 442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 426110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 419986 417982 410973 403967 400965
      398968 399972 403983 408993 413003 418012 421016 423022
      425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 369722 364723 360725 352730 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327794 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 292083 292079 289077 281075 272073 265070 258068 254068
      258074 262080 268085 273088 280091 284091 288090 290088
      292084 292083
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419996 418992 417987 414983 410980 408977 405974
      403976 405981 407985 409989 411994 413998 415001 418005
      419003
      358016 358015 357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 297815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 415994 415991 414989 414988 413987 412986 411987 411989
      412990 413991 413992 415994 415994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293823 296817 293818 291822 290823 290824 289826 289829
      290829 291827 291826 292824 293823

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020931
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH SOLUTION
HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF. FOR
NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM QPF. GIVEN
THE SPREAD IN PLACE... A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE
MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW TO
BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.



DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT AT ALL.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS
CAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE
ROUNDS FOR PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A
BETTER OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.  PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
AREAS TO DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A
MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX NEAR KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF
HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST (EVEN WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS),
WITH THE 00Z UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE
WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514104 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      505152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526192 526198
      529199 532192 537191 539194 538198 537202 536205 536209
      537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188
      539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 529777 527775 523776 521778 520779 518783
      515789 513793 512797 512802 509805 505818 501837 502856
      506872 511887 518902 528931 531940 534945 539947 544941
      544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 506651 498654 493658 488665 481674
      476681 470687 465693 459701 451714 446724 442731 432744
      428753 424761 421768 418776 414787 411796 408805 406815
      401834 398841 392846 388849 387854 385864 382873 382886
      380890 378893 375897 374901 379906 380917 378922 379928
      380934 382938 384940 388943 390944 389947 388952 386959
      386966 386971 387977 389979 394985 396986 400983 403979
      405975 409967 413964 416963 418960 419956 423945 423939
      424933 425924 426919 429914 433912 438912 443913 446916
      450918 452923 457928 461928 465925 475916 479912 481909
      487902 488899 490892 490879 488868 491857 492845 494836
      495824 496817 496811 495797 495791 493787 492782 495779
      501772 510759 513755 515750 523745 527743 529740 533731
      533725 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445220 442215 435205 430201 424200 415198 413195
      413192 416189 417186 417179 416175 417170 411143 414129
      416111 418109 418104 419096 418083 417076 414067 416061
      416057 415054 411050 406044 400035 400027 400023 398023
      391033 385035 381032 379026 379021 370993 366988 362984
      352979 347977 341976 337978 333982 329994 329000 330006
      331012 330018 328025 328028 331030 335034 338036 338042
      338050 336054 333053 325047 320043 316045 318050 321054
      329061 336062 336067 332068 322067 318070 315071 311071
      308071 300070 295069 292064 279063 269059 262058 259057
      242054 237053 234057 235061 237063 241068 248076 256083
      260086 266089 279091 282092 283095 284100 288104 291106
      296110 302114 307117 314121 322128 331113 344129 347132
      350130 353124 356121 357117 356115 353108 358106 361106
      363110 363114 364117 363122 362125 364127 364132 363135
      359141 356144 356151 361160 365164 368169 368179 365182
      362182 374194 381202 391210 400218 403221 404227 404234
      407239 415243 422246 425244 425237 425233 427231 430229
      446226
 0.01 385675 367679 359681 355688 342700 332713 324727 318741
      310755 305763 300770 295775 284777 276780 268781 263784
      259785 251789 249791 249796 248802 246805 245807 246811
      248816 251818 258817 263820 266823 266827 264835 262839
      262844 263856 265879 266899 266909 265918 264929 261939
      259946 258958 257962 257967 260966 263964 268962 272961
      275956 284943 288937 290933 296933 299933 301929 301925
      303922 303910 301906 302900 306891 307886 307882 309879
      307875 307868 308864 313849 322832 326826 329823 334822
      340817 343814 344810 344805 345801 348794 354777 362760
      366753 369745 373738 376731 383714 385704 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 504718 503714 498712 489718 479725 468726 459731
      456735 452740 447751 441761 435771 431781 420804 416814
      412824 408835 407843 406852 407865 405876 404885 403890
      393897 395902 399907 405913 410917 412917 413914 417910
      420907 428904 434895 438891 442889 454884 457880 459873
      462861 464845 466831 478777 481765 483760 487755 494746
      500736 502729 504723
 0.25 479889 479882 477877 475872 473868 472865 470870 469875
      469883 469890 470895 471898 473899 476895 478891 479889
 0.25 418223 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211 407215
      408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229 418225 418223
 0.25 409110 410102 407097 402107 400109 397108 392105 388102
      390096 392088 392079 393075 396072 398070 398067 398063
      396057 392052 389049 382047 372045 367041 364035 364025
      366011 364007 361006 358006 352009 348008 345008 344004
      346002 347994 347990 344989 341990 337993 340999 341003
      341007 340013 342017 357031 360035 362042 356055 357058
      359058 365056 370056 376056 379060 377062 374062 369061
      366063 362062 358062 357064 358069 361072 365075 368081
      370086 374091 376095 378102 382106 386104 386108 385110
      381110 378112 376119 373126 372132 375133 378132 381131
      389123 399118 403112 407112 409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364721 363717 360716 358713 357709 351709
      343712 339717 332730 320751 313762 306776 300786 297790
      295793 291794 282795 275797 261801 255804 254806 256808
      266812 275813 278814 277818 274824 272830 271837 271847
      272863 274882 276891 275900 273906 273915 273923 272929
      270943 270946 273948 276942 281929 282923 282918 282914
      284906 286900 289893 291886 310834 316821 322812 330803
      337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 468754 464755 455768 449771 444775 440780
      435787 429799 425805 421813 417828 415834 413844 416853
      416863 415879 416890 416894 418896 422895 425893 429886
      430879 431875 434873 445877 448877 451875 454867 455859
      456847 461811 461801 462792 463783 466774 469768 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757 316765
      310779 306786 303795 302805 301813 288815 282819 277824
      274832 273839 274845 277864 278869 281871 284869 287866
      297855 303840 306831 309825 309819 310816 317811 327799
      336786 350756 353750 354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 447819 447817 446814 446812 445812 444812 443812 442814
      442815 442817 442818 443820 444822 444823 446822 446821
      447819
 1.00 448862 448860 447858 446855 444855 444856 444858 443860
      445863 447864 448862
 1.00 438835 438832 438831 437832 438835 438835
 1.00 346752 346746 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 301834 302829 300825 294822 291820 287820 281823 278830
      277838 277844 279852 284857 287856 290854 294848 297842
      301835 301834
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299834 299830 298828 294824 287823 283824 282826 280832
      279840 281848 285851 289850 290848 294844 297838 299834
 2.00 297834 296828 294826 289825 285827 282831 281836 281842
      284846 286847 289846 292844 294841 297836 297834
 3.00 294836 295834 295832 294830 293828 291827 289826 289827
      287827 286829 286830 285831 284833 284835 284837 284839
      286841 288840 290840 291839 292838 293837 294836

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 501304 497302 498300 502293 505290 508285 510277
      509270 509259 509254 511248 513243 515240 511236 508233
      510224 516214 519212 518206 514197 510193 506193 504195
      500194 497195 495192 492183 486177 481173 478170 475168
      467163 464167 463172 464176 462180 455186 452189 447189
      445189 440190 441195 444198 454205 459208 465211 470210
      476212 477215 475216 471218 460226 454228 447230 440232
      431231 422232 413231 405224 401216 400210 395206 389199
      389177 388165 391153 372141 370136 370131 370123 372116
      378112 382111 386109 390107 393104 396100 396097 392097
      386096 382099 379102 376103 373103 373091 370081 367073
      365068 365063 373062 377061 375058 367046 361040 357038
      351038 349039 348042 349047 351058 349063 347066 343069
      344073 347083 348092 347095 344107 334110 326113 320119
      317121 315118 314116 309113 305112 302110 296109 291109
      285108 278105 264094 252082 239069 233062 230059 228054
      228050 233050 245051 253053 261053 279054 300056 304055
      310055 316056 318055 319051 316042 322033 327028 334023
      341018 341014 339008 338003 338996 338989 340984 347981
      357982 361986 366992 368996 372999 377006 382013 387022
      394027 403031 407023 409019 410014 409008 407002 401992
      398982 395972 392963 390954 391949 393947 397946 400948
      406953 411959 416967 421977 425987 427992 427998 428009
      430020 431026 431029 433030 444033 447039 447046 449058
      451070 453078 456085 459094 462104 465114 469122 471124
      472121 476121 483127 491129 496133 504136 507136 509138
      513137 522139 530136 532133 537133 539132 541130 543133
      545130
 0.01 545130 546131 548129 550129 551132 553132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 493626 489631 486635 484641 478648 477652 474657
      472661 468665 464668 461671 456677 452684 446690 436705
      432711 426719 415734 407747 402756 399765 398768 397773
      391780 379795 369806 367809 370814 370817 368820 368824
      369831 371834 376842 379843 382841 391836 393838 393841
      393847 390856 389861 391861 395862 394865 401867 404863
      406858 410851 415847 418840 421834 427827 432819 436810
      437805 441801 452788 455785 459784 467782 470781 469786
      466797 465802 463806 462811 464817 471840 474845 477842
      481842 491841 499838 502838 503842 505847 506853 509856
      516854 521853 524855 530854 532854 534851 535845 534843
      533839 531835 519821 520809 520805 522802 521797 524786
      524782 525778 527751 528739 529733 528724 524696 523685
      522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 478772 476770 474770 473771 472773 471774 470776 472778
      473778 475775 476775 478772
 0.01 450173 448168 448163 442156 436149 435138 438127 434126
      432130 428139 426148 426155 427160 428165 430170 437177
      447179 450173
 0.01 407674 406670 401671 397672 394674 389677 386680 380688
      376697 369705 353717 347722 340726 325737 320743 315752
      308761 303768 300771 295772 287772 278775 274774 267775
      259778 250783 240787 234790 227795 224803 222806 222813
      225825 226825 227832 227837 229838 231836 232831 232828
      234824 239820 243825 246819 248817 251818 253823 258832
      260836 261840 263846 263854 267862 269868 270876 270887
      269898 271907 273912 273919 270944 269950 268954 268962
      270966 272968 275966 278966 281962 284959 286955 292948
      294944 294937 294929 295922 297912 298899 298893 300890
      303884 307873 306861 304849 304842 306835 308831 311827
      316821 328810 339796 351782 360763 370750 377743 381735
      387728 392719 397709 400700 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511654 509646 507637 506635 503634 499638 496645
      493651 490656 483662 479668 475671 471674 467679 458689
      445705 438715 433726 429735 426740 422744 414751 411756
      409759 409763 414763 417765 418774 416779 413785 408789
      401790 397793 391800 389807 389810 394812 399811 405808
      408807 411807 411815 412822 415822 417820 420815 425802
      431793 435783 437776 439772 442767 447763 452760 456759
      460757 463753 466748 467742 472728 479719 481715 486713
      488706 491701 499692 506683 508679 509674 511663
 0.25 457138 458130 458122 456110 452099 449094 443092 440090
      435091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421108 419110 416109
      412106 411101 409096 407095 406098 404104 401106 397106
      395112 397116 403118 413120 418119 423122 425124 430120
      433116 436114 441115 444120 440145 443148 449150 454147
      456140 457138
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 432214 432212 431210 430209 429209 427208 426208 425208
      424209 423210 423212 423213 424215 424216 426217 428217
      429217 431217 432215 432214
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422074 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 407077 411076 419079 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428029 428023 427018 424001 423994 421985 418979
      414973 406963 401960 397961 396963 397971 400979 405991
      411004 414011 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 385708 383704 379705 368714 345730 337737 331741
      326746 313770 307779 298788 295793 292800 291804 289807
      285808 282806 272801 265799 257801 253804 251807 253811
      258814 268814 275813 282811 285812 285817 281823 277827
      274834 273842 275849 278853 281858 285864 284870 283879
      282889 286906 288904 289896 290888 291881 290876 289873
      286864 287859 290854 294843 298829 302823 306819 317811
      325803 335793 342784 350771 356762 363751 379727 383720
      385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352999
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299090 300086 300082 298075 292071 286069 271066 257062
      243058 238058 242064 249073 258082 268089 273092 280096
      285098 290098 292097 299090
 0.50 497670 496665 495665 490667 485674 481679 476678 473680
      471682 467687 462691 446712 441723 436737 434742 429746
      424750 417753 416757 419758 422758 425760 429766 431767
      434766 438763 440755 442750 448744 456737 461731 464725
      470714 475700 479688 485684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 444099 443101 442102 442103 441105 440107 440108
      441110 442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 426110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 419986 417982 410973 403967 400965
      398968 399972 403983 408993 413003 418012 421016 423022
      425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 369722 364723 360725 352730 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327794 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 292083 292079 289077 281075 272073 265070 258068 254068
      258074 262080 268085 273088 280091 284091 288090 290088
      292084 292083
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419996 418992 417987 414983 410980 408977 405974
      403976 405981 407985 409989 411994 413998 415001 418005
      419003
      358016 358015 357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 297815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 415994 415991 414989 414988 413987 412986 411987 411989
      412990 413991 413992 415994 415994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293823 296817 293818 291822 290823 290824 289826 289829
      290829 291827 291826 292824 293823

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020931
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH SOLUTION
HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF. FOR
NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM QPF. GIVEN
THE SPREAD IN PLACE... A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE
MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW TO
BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE THREAT.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.



DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT AT ALL.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS
CAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE
ROUNDS FOR PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A
BETTER OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.  PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
AREAS TO DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A
MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX NEAR KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF
HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST (EVEN WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS),
WITH THE 00Z UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE
WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514104 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      505152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526192 526198
      529199 532192 537191 539194 538198 537202 536205 536209
      537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188
      539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 529777 527775 523776 521778 520779 518783
      515789 513793 512797 512802 509805 505818 501837 502856
      506872 511887 518902 528931 531940 534945 539947 544941
      544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 506651 498654 493658 488665 481674
      476681 470687 465693 459701 451714 446724 442731 432744
      428753 424761 421768 418776 414787 411796 408805 406815
      401834 398841 392846 388849 387854 385864 382873 382886
      380890 378893 375897 374901 379906 380917 378922 379928
      380934 382938 384940 388943 390944 389947 388952 386959
      386966 386971 387977 389979 394985 396986 400983 403979
      405975 409967 413964 416963 418960 419956 423945 423939
      424933 425924 426919 429914 433912 438912 443913 446916
      450918 452923 457928 461928 465925 475916 479912 481909
      487902 488899 490892 490879 488868 491857 492845 494836
      495824 496817 496811 495797 495791 493787 492782 495779
      501772 510759 513755 515750 523745 527743 529740 533731
      533725 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445220 442215 435205 430201 424200 415198 413195
      413192 416189 417186 417179 416175 417170 411143 414129
      416111 418109 418104 419096 418083 417076 414067 416061
      416057 415054 411050 406044 400035 400027 400023 398023
      391033 385035 381032 379026 379021 370993 366988 362984
      352979 347977 341976 337978 333982 329994 329000 330006
      331012 330018 328025 328028 331030 335034 338036 338042
      338050 336054 333053 325047 320043 316045 318050 321054
      329061 336062 336067 332068 322067 318070 315071 311071
      308071 300070 295069 292064 279063 269059 262058 259057
      242054 237053 234057 235061 237063 241068 248076 256083
      260086 266089 279091 282092 283095 284100 288104 291106
      296110 302114 307117 314121 322128 331113 344129 347132
      350130 353124 356121 357117 356115 353108 358106 361106
      363110 363114 364117 363122 362125 364127 364132 363135
      359141 356144 356151 361160 365164 368169 368179 365182
      362182 374194 381202 391210 400218 403221 404227 404234
      407239 415243 422246 425244 425237 425233 427231 430229
      446226
 0.01 385675 367679 359681 355688 342700 332713 324727 318741
      310755 305763 300770 295775 284777 276780 268781 263784
      259785 251789 249791 249796 248802 246805 245807 246811
      248816 251818 258817 263820 266823 266827 264835 262839
      262844 263856 265879 266899 266909 265918 264929 261939
      259946 258958 257962 257967 260966 263964 268962 272961
      275956 284943 288937 290933 296933 299933 301929 301925
      303922 303910 301906 302900 306891 307886 307882 309879
      307875 307868 308864 313849 322832 326826 329823 334822
      340817 343814 344810 344805 345801 348794 354777 362760
      366753 369745 373738 376731 383714 385704 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 504718 503714 498712 489718 479725 468726 459731
      456735 452740 447751 441761 435771 431781 420804 416814
      412824 408835 407843 406852 407865 405876 404885 403890
      393897 395902 399907 405913 410917 412917 413914 417910
      420907 428904 434895 438891 442889 454884 457880 459873
      462861 464845 466831 478777 481765 483760 487755 494746
      500736 502729 504723
 0.25 479889 479882 477877 475872 473868 472865 470870 469875
      469883 469890 470895 471898 473899 476895 478891 479889
 0.25 418223 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211 407215
      408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229 418225 418223
 0.25 409110 410102 407097 402107 400109 397108 392105 388102
      390096 392088 392079 393075 396072 398070 398067 398063
      396057 392052 389049 382047 372045 367041 364035 364025
      366011 364007 361006 358006 352009 348008 345008 344004
      346002 347994 347990 344989 341990 337993 340999 341003
      341007 340013 342017 357031 360035 362042 356055 357058
      359058 365056 370056 376056 379060 377062 374062 369061
      366063 362062 358062 357064 358069 361072 365075 368081
      370086 374091 376095 378102 382106 386104 386108 385110
      381110 378112 376119 373126 372132 375133 378132 381131
      389123 399118 403112 407112 409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364721 363717 360716 358713 357709 351709
      343712 339717 332730 320751 313762 306776 300786 297790
      295793 291794 282795 275797 261801 255804 254806 256808
      266812 275813 278814 277818 274824 272830 271837 271847
      272863 274882 276891 275900 273906 273915 273923 272929
      270943 270946 273948 276942 281929 282923 282918 282914
      284906 286900 289893 291886 310834 316821 322812 330803
      337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 468754 464755 455768 449771 444775 440780
      435787 429799 425805 421813 417828 415834 413844 416853
      416863 415879 416890 416894 418896 422895 425893 429886
      430879 431875 434873 445877 448877 451875 454867 455859
      456847 461811 461801 462792 463783 466774 469768 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757 316765
      310779 306786 303795 302805 301813 288815 282819 277824
      274832 273839 274845 277864 278869 281871 284869 287866
      297855 303840 306831 309825 309819 310816 317811 327799
      336786 350756 353750 354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 447819 447817 446814 446812 445812 444812 443812 442814
      442815 442817 442818 443820 444822 444823 446822 446821
      447819
 1.00 448862 448860 447858 446855 444855 444856 444858 443860
      445863 447864 448862
 1.00 438835 438832 438831 437832 438835 438835
 1.00 346752 346746 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 301834 302829 300825 294822 291820 287820 281823 278830
      277838 277844 279852 284857 287856 290854 294848 297842
      301835 301834
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299834 299830 298828 294824 287823 283824 282826 280832
      279840 281848 285851 289850 290848 294844 297838 299834
 2.00 297834 296828 294826 289825 285827 282831 281836 281842
      284846 286847 289846 292844 294841 297836 297834
 3.00 294836 295834 295832 294830 293828 291827 289826 289827
      287827 286829 286830 285831 284833 284835 284837 284839
      286841 288840 290840 291839 292838 293837 294836

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 501304 497302 498300 502293 505290 508285 510277
      509270 509259 509254 511248 513243 515240 511236 508233
      510224 516214 519212 518206 514197 510193 506193 504195
      500194 497195 495192 492183 486177 481173 478170 475168
      467163 464167 463172 464176 462180 455186 452189 447189
      445189 440190 441195 444198 454205 459208 465211 470210
      476212 477215 475216 471218 460226 454228 447230 440232
      431231 422232 413231 405224 401216 400210 395206 389199
      389177 388165 391153 372141 370136 370131 370123 372116
      378112 382111 386109 390107 393104 396100 396097 392097
      386096 382099 379102 376103 373103 373091 370081 367073
      365068 365063 373062 377061 375058 367046 361040 357038
      351038 349039 348042 349047 351058 349063 347066 343069
      344073 347083 348092 347095 344107 334110 326113 320119
      317121 315118 314116 309113 305112 302110 296109 291109
      285108 278105 264094 252082 239069 233062 230059 228054
      228050 233050 245051 253053 261053 279054 300056 304055
      310055 316056 318055 319051 316042 322033 327028 334023
      341018 341014 339008 338003 338996 338989 340984 347981
      357982 361986 366992 368996 372999 377006 382013 387022
      394027 403031 407023 409019 410014 409008 407002 401992
      398982 395972 392963 390954 391949 393947 397946 400948
      406953 411959 416967 421977 425987 427992 427998 428009
      430020 431026 431029 433030 444033 447039 447046 449058
      451070 453078 456085 459094 462104 465114 469122 471124
      472121 476121 483127 491129 496133 504136 507136 509138
      513137 522139 530136 532133 537133 539132 541130 543133
      545130
 0.01 545130 546131 548129 550129 551132 553132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 493626 489631 486635 484641 478648 477652 474657
      472661 468665 464668 461671 456677 452684 446690 436705
      432711 426719 415734 407747 402756 399765 398768 397773
      391780 379795 369806 367809 370814 370817 368820 368824
      369831 371834 376842 379843 382841 391836 393838 393841
      393847 390856 389861 391861 395862 394865 401867 404863
      406858 410851 415847 418840 421834 427827 432819 436810
      437805 441801 452788 455785 459784 467782 470781 469786
      466797 465802 463806 462811 464817 471840 474845 477842
      481842 491841 499838 502838 503842 505847 506853 509856
      516854 521853 524855 530854 532854 534851 535845 534843
      533839 531835 519821 520809 520805 522802 521797 524786
      524782 525778 527751 528739 529733 528724 524696 523685
      522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 478772 476770 474770 473771 472773 471774 470776 472778
      473778 475775 476775 478772
 0.01 450173 448168 448163 442156 436149 435138 438127 434126
      432130 428139 426148 426155 427160 428165 430170 437177
      447179 450173
 0.01 407674 406670 401671 397672 394674 389677 386680 380688
      376697 369705 353717 347722 340726 325737 320743 315752
      308761 303768 300771 295772 287772 278775 274774 267775
      259778 250783 240787 234790 227795 224803 222806 222813
      225825 226825 227832 227837 229838 231836 232831 232828
      234824 239820 243825 246819 248817 251818 253823 258832
      260836 261840 263846 263854 267862 269868 270876 270887
      269898 271907 273912 273919 270944 269950 268954 268962
      270966 272968 275966 278966 281962 284959 286955 292948
      294944 294937 294929 295922 297912 298899 298893 300890
      303884 307873 306861 304849 304842 306835 308831 311827
      316821 328810 339796 351782 360763 370750 377743 381735
      387728 392719 397709 400700 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511654 509646 507637 506635 503634 499638 496645
      493651 490656 483662 479668 475671 471674 467679 458689
      445705 438715 433726 429735 426740 422744 414751 411756
      409759 409763 414763 417765 418774 416779 413785 408789
      401790 397793 391800 389807 389810 394812 399811 405808
      408807 411807 411815 412822 415822 417820 420815 425802
      431793 435783 437776 439772 442767 447763 452760 456759
      460757 463753 466748 467742 472728 479719 481715 486713
      488706 491701 499692 506683 508679 509674 511663
 0.25 457138 458130 458122 456110 452099 449094 443092 440090
      435091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421108 419110 416109
      412106 411101 409096 407095 406098 404104 401106 397106
      395112 397116 403118 413120 418119 423122 425124 430120
      433116 436114 441115 444120 440145 443148 449150 454147
      456140 457138
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 432214 432212 431210 430209 429209 427208 426208 425208
      424209 423210 423212 423213 424215 424216 426217 428217
      429217 431217 432215 432214
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422074 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 407077 411076 419079 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428029 428023 427018 424001 423994 421985 418979
      414973 406963 401960 397961 396963 397971 400979 405991
      411004 414011 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 385708 383704 379705 368714 345730 337737 331741
      326746 313770 307779 298788 295793 292800 291804 289807
      285808 282806 272801 265799 257801 253804 251807 253811
      258814 268814 275813 282811 285812 285817 281823 277827
      274834 273842 275849 278853 281858 285864 284870 283879
      282889 286906 288904 289896 290888 291881 290876 289873
      286864 287859 290854 294843 298829 302823 306819 317811
      325803 335793 342784 350771 356762 363751 379727 383720
      385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352999
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 299090 300086 300082 298075 292071 286069 271066 257062
      243058 238058 242064 249073 258082 268089 273092 280096
      285098 290098 292097 299090
 0.50 497670 496665 495665 490667 485674 481679 476678 473680
      471682 467687 462691 446712 441723 436737 434742 429746
      424750 417753 416757 419758 422758 425760 429766 431767
      434766 438763 440755 442750 448744 456737 461731 464725
      470714 475700 479688 485684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 444099 443101 442102 442103 441105 440107 440108
      441110 442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 426110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 419986 417982 410973 403967 400965
      398968 399972 403983 408993 413003 418012 421016 423022
      425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 369722 364723 360725 352730 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327794 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 292083 292079 289077 281075 272073 265070 258068 254068
      258074 262080 268085 273088 280091 284091 288090 290088
      292084 292083
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419996 418992 417987 414983 410980 408977 405974
      403976 405981 407985 409989 411994 413998 415001 418005
      419003
      358016 358015 357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 297815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 415994 415991 414989 414988 413987 412986 411987 411989
      412990 413991 413992 415994 415994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293823 296817 293818 291822 290823 290824 289826 289829
      290829 291827 291826 292824 293823

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020816
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 SSE AAF 50 SE AAF 45 SW 40J 15 SW 40J 25 NNW GNV 25 SE GNV
VVG 10 NNW LAL 10 N SRQ 45 WSW SPG 110 W PIE 75 SSE AAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.


...FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF FL IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF
THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD
ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020816
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z MON AUG 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 SSE AAF 50 SE AAF 45 SW 40J 15 SW 40J 25 NNW GNV 25 SE GNV
VVG 10 NNW LAL 10 N SRQ 45 WSW SPG 110 W PIE 75 SSE AAF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW TAD 25 WSW TAD 15 W RTN 15 W LVS 15 SE SAF 15 SSW SAF
20 NE AEG AEG 25 W AEG 10 ESE GNT GNT 35 NNW GNT 30 NE GUP
30 NNE RQE 50 N RQE 60 SW CEZ 55 S 4BL 40 SSW 4BL 40 SW 4BL
55 NE PGA 50 SSW 4HV 40 SSW 4HV 30 SW 4HV 15 SW 4HV 4HV 15 E 4HV
20 SW CNY 10 SSE CNY 15 E CNY 25 ENE CNY 20 WSW GJT 10 ENE GJT
10 SW RIL 10 W EGE 10 WNW CCU 30 SE LXV 40 SW FCS 30 NNE VTP
20 NW TAD.


...FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF FL IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF
THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF...THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD
ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS)...NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREAS WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST OR THROUGH MUCH OF NV SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN
TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN....AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (LIKE THE 00Z
NAM CONEST) SUGGESTS THAT LOCAL 1.00+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NV. WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...LOCAL QPF AMOUNTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER NV.

HAYES
$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020747
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHEAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.
FOR NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


WESTERN UNITED STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR
PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST (EVEN
WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS), WITH THE 00Z
UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER,
WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 507298 504303 502304 498303 498300 502293 505290
      507286 509279 510271 509261 509254 510252 511246 515241
      515239 512239 511236 509235 508231 509227 515215 519212
      519209 517202 515199 511195 508193 505195 500194 497195
      495193 495189 493184 488178 485176 481173 475168 466164
      464167 462172 464176 464178 457185 454188 450189 447189
      445187 443188 439192 442197 458207 479213 476217 471221
      465224 458227 452230 444231 440232 435232 426232 417232
      411231 408228 404224 401220 399210 396205 394200 393195
      394187 395182 398178 401174 405174 438177 447179 450176
      449171 446161 440154 437150 436143 434140 435136 437129
      437126 435126 432129 425136 413151 407155 404157 400155
      400149 398146 391147 376148 372141 370132 370125 372118
      374114 378112 387109 391107 393103 397099 392097 386096
      382099 376103 373100 373093 370081 367072 365068 365064
      368062 373062 376061 377059 371053 367046 360039 350038
      348039 348042 349046 350053 351059 349063 346066 343070
      344074 347081 347086 348092 346096 345103 344107 334110
      325114 320118 317121 316119 314116 309113 305112 303110
      299109 295109 290109 284108 271100 263093 255086 243074
      231060 227052 230050 236050 244051 252053 270054 290055
      310055 316055 319054 319051 316043 320035 323031 326029
      342017 339006 338000 338993 338988 340985 346981 351981
      356982 362986 372999 381013 386021 394027 398029 402030
      404031 405028 407024 409019 410015 409012 408005 406000
      401991 397982 393965 391955 390950 393947 397946 399948
      406953 412960 417968 422977 425988 428999 429013 431025
      431029 433030 438031 443032 446036 448051 451071
 0.01 451071 453078 457086 461102 464110 467119 471124 472121
      477121 488129 492130 495133 499134 512136 524139 529137
      535133 542130 551132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 494626 489631 481645 476654 472661 469664 464667
      461671 458676 454681 449687 440700 418730 414735 410741
      402756 399765 398768 396774 390782 385788 368811 369831
      375841 377844 381841 386838 389836 393839 393845 392851
      390859 399867 403864 406857 410850 414848 418840 422834
      427826 433816 437808 438804 441801 450790 455785 464783
      468780 470780 470783 467789 466794 464804 462808 462812
      464814 469832 471836 471840 473845 475844 480842 485841
      489842 493840 498838 503839 506836 508841 510846 510850
      513859 520858 523855 524851 524842 523836 519833 518829
      520805 524786 526764 527751 527747 528743 528737 529731
      528722 527711 525707 524703 524694 523684 522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 407674 406670 402671 397672 394674 390677 386680 381687
      378691 376697 370704 362711 353717 324738 301770 297772
      292773 289772 285773 265775 230793 227795 225798 224803
      222805 223817 224823 226825 226831 227838 230838 232833
      234828 234824 236821 239820 241823 243825 245823 250817
      254825 258834 262844 264855 269866 270882 270900 273910
      273924 270947 268954 268962 272968 279964 285958 287954
      289951 294944 294931 295924 296919 299891 303884 305875
      307871 306864 306858 304854 304845 305839 307832 310829
      323815 333804 344790 351782 356772 361762 366755 377742
      381735 387728 396710 400697 401692 404687 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511655 509646 507638 504634 501635 499638 496646
      494651 490656 458689 446704 439714 433726 429735 426739
      423744 414751 410756 409759 409763 413763 417765 418773
      417779 414785 411787 407789 401790 397793 391800 389805
      389810 394812 398811 404808 408807 411807 412822 417821
      420816 424805 431793 435783 438772 443767 447763 452760
      456759 460757 463754 466749 467743 472728 479719 481716
      486713 490702 498693 506683 509674 511663
 0.25 456145 459129 459119 457113 453102 450096 445093 441091
      437091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421107 420109 415109
      412105 411099 409096 407096 404102 402107 399105 396110
      396114 397116 406119 413119 418118 422120 425124 429122
      433116 435114 441115 444120 444128 439137 439143 443149
      450151 454149 456145
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 430216 431214 431212 430211 429210 427208 425209 424210
      423212 424215 426216 428217 430217 430216
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422073 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 406077 411076 419078 419084 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428030 428024 427018 424004 423994 421985 419979
      415973 410969 405964 402960 397960 396963 397970 400978
      406991 411003 414010 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 384706 383703 380704 373711 353725 337736 328744
      322754 312772 309776 305781 297789 293798 291803 291806
      288807 285808 282806 276803 272801 266800 261800 256801
      252804 251808 252810 257813 262814 270814 278812 284811
      286814 285817 283821 279825 276829 274834 273841 275849
      278852 280856 283860 287859 292847 296836 299827 305819
      315812 324805 330798 337791 350771 361754 374735 381725
      383719 385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352998
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 301091 302086 302081 301076 300073 294070 286068 270064
      253060 237057 239061 241063 245068 254079 266088 278096
      284098 289099 292098 297094 301091
 0.50 497670 495665 490667 481679 476678 473679 472681 467687
      462691 455701 450706 446712 441722 436737 434742 429746
      417753 416757 419758 424760 428765 431767 434766 438763
      440756 440752 442749 448744 457737 460731 463724 467720
      471716 472707 475700 479688 484684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 454134 453134 453132 453129 452127 451127 451126 451127
      449129 449130 448131 447133 446135 445138 445140 446141
      447142 449142 450141 451140 452139 453137 453135 454134
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 443099 443101 442103 441105 440107 440108 441110
      442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 425110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 420987 417982 414977 410974 403968
      401966 398968 400975 405986 410996 414005 416010 420014
      422018 423022 425019 425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 370722 364723 360725 353729 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327795 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 294088 295081 292077 282073 271070 260066 256065 249064
      254071 259080 266085 275090 279092 285094 289093 293088
      294088
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419998 418992 417987 414983 410980 407977 404977
      405982 407987 409991 412995 414998 416003 419003 358016
358015
      357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 298815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 416994 416991 415990 414989 414987 413987 412986 410986
      410987 411989 412991 413994 415995 416994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293824 294821 295817 294818 292821 291822 290823 290824
      289826 289829 290829 291827 291826 292824 293824

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 020747
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHEAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.
FOR NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


WESTERN UNITED STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR
PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST (EVEN
WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS), WITH THE 00Z
UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER,
WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 507298 504303 502304 498303 498300 502293 505290
      507286 509279 510271 509261 509254 510252 511246 515241
      515239 512239 511236 509235 508231 509227 515215 519212
      519209 517202 515199 511195 508193 505195 500194 497195
      495193 495189 493184 488178 485176 481173 475168 466164
      464167 462172 464176 464178 457185 454188 450189 447189
      445187 443188 439192 442197 458207 479213 476217 471221
      465224 458227 452230 444231 440232 435232 426232 417232
      411231 408228 404224 401220 399210 396205 394200 393195
      394187 395182 398178 401174 405174 438177 447179 450176
      449171 446161 440154 437150 436143 434140 435136 437129
      437126 435126 432129 425136 413151 407155 404157 400155
      400149 398146 391147 376148 372141 370132 370125 372118
      374114 378112 387109 391107 393103 397099 392097 386096
      382099 376103 373100 373093 370081 367072 365068 365064
      368062 373062 376061 377059 371053 367046 360039 350038
      348039 348042 349046 350053 351059 349063 346066 343070
      344074 347081 347086 348092 346096 345103 344107 334110
      325114 320118 317121 316119 314116 309113 305112 303110
      299109 295109 290109 284108 271100 263093 255086 243074
      231060 227052 230050 236050 244051 252053 270054 290055
      310055 316055 319054 319051 316043 320035 323031 326029
      342017 339006 338000 338993 338988 340985 346981 351981
      356982 362986 372999 381013 386021 394027 398029 402030
      404031 405028 407024 409019 410015 409012 408005 406000
      401991 397982 393965 391955 390950 393947 397946 399948
      406953 412960 417968 422977 425988 428999 429013 431025
      431029 433030 438031 443032 446036 448051 451071
 0.01 451071 453078 457086 461102 464110 467119 471124 472121
      477121 488129 492130 495133 499134 512136 524139 529137
      535133 542130 551132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 494626 489631 481645 476654 472661 469664 464667
      461671 458676 454681 449687 440700 418730 414735 410741
      402756 399765 398768 396774 390782 385788 368811 369831
      375841 377844 381841 386838 389836 393839 393845 392851
      390859 399867 403864 406857 410850 414848 418840 422834
      427826 433816 437808 438804 441801 450790 455785 464783
      468780 470780 470783 467789 466794 464804 462808 462812
      464814 469832 471836 471840 473845 475844 480842 485841
      489842 493840 498838 503839 506836 508841 510846 510850
      513859 520858 523855 524851 524842 523836 519833 518829
      520805 524786 526764 527751 527747 528743 528737 529731
      528722 527711 525707 524703 524694 523684 522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 407674 406670 402671 397672 394674 390677 386680 381687
      378691 376697 370704 362711 353717 324738 301770 297772
      292773 289772 285773 265775 230793 227795 225798 224803
      222805 223817 224823 226825 226831 227838 230838 232833
      234828 234824 236821 239820 241823 243825 245823 250817
      254825 258834 262844 264855 269866 270882 270900 273910
      273924 270947 268954 268962 272968 279964 285958 287954
      289951 294944 294931 295924 296919 299891 303884 305875
      307871 306864 306858 304854 304845 305839 307832 310829
      323815 333804 344790 351782 356772 361762 366755 377742
      381735 387728 396710 400697 401692 404687 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511655 509646 507638 504634 501635 499638 496646
      494651 490656 458689 446704 439714 433726 429735 426739
      423744 414751 410756 409759 409763 413763 417765 418773
      417779 414785 411787 407789 401790 397793 391800 389805
      389810 394812 398811 404808 408807 411807 412822 417821
      420816 424805 431793 435783 438772 443767 447763 452760
      456759 460757 463754 466749 467743 472728 479719 481716
      486713 490702 498693 506683 509674 511663
 0.25 456145 459129 459119 457113 453102 450096 445093 441091
      437091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421107 420109 415109
      412105 411099 409096 407096 404102 402107 399105 396110
      396114 397116 406119 413119 418118 422120 425124 429122
      433116 435114 441115 444120 444128 439137 439143 443149
      450151 454149 456145
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 430216 431214 431212 430211 429210 427208 425209 424210
      423212 424215 426216 428217 430217 430216
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422073 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 406077 411076 419078 419084 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428030 428024 427018 424004 423994 421985 419979
      415973 410969 405964 402960 397960 396963 397970 400978
      406991 411003 414010 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 384706 383703 380704 373711 353725 337736 328744
      322754 312772 309776 305781 297789 293798 291803 291806
      288807 285808 282806 276803 272801 266800 261800 256801
      252804 251808 252810 257813 262814 270814 278812 284811
      286814 285817 283821 279825 276829 274834 273841 275849
      278852 280856 283860 287859 292847 296836 299827 305819
      315812 324805 330798 337791 350771 361754 374735 381725
      383719 385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352998
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 301091 302086 302081 301076 300073 294070 286068 270064
      253060 237057 239061 241063 245068 254079 266088 278096
      284098 289099 292098 297094 301091
 0.50 497670 495665 490667 481679 476678 473679 472681 467687
      462691 455701 450706 446712 441722 436737 434742 429746
      417753 416757 419758 424760 428765 431767 434766 438763
      440756 440752 442749 448744 457737 460731 463724 467720
      471716 472707 475700 479688 484684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 454134 453134 453132 453129 452127 451127 451126 451127
      449129 449130 448131 447133 446135 445138 445140 446141
      447142 449142 450141 451140 452139 453137 453135 454134
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 443099 443101 442103 441105 440107 440108 441110
      442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 425110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 420987 417982 414977 410974 403968
      401966 398968 400975 405986 410996 414005 416010 420014
      422018 423022 425019 425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 370722 364723 360725 353729 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327795 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 294088 295081 292077 282073 271070 260066 256065 249064
      254071 259080 266085 275090 279092 285094 289093 293088
      294088
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419998 418992 417987 414983 410980 407977 404977
      405982 407987 409991 412995 414998 416003 419003 358016
358015
      357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 298815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 416994 416991 415990 414989 414987 413987 412986 410986
      410987 411989 412991 413994 415995 416994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293824 294821 295817 294818 292821 291822 290823 290824
      289826 289829 290829 291827 291826 292824 293824

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020747
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHEAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.
FOR NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


WESTERN UNITED STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR
PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST (EVEN
WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS), WITH THE 00Z
UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER,
WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 507298 504303 502304 498303 498300 502293 505290
      507286 509279 510271 509261 509254 510252 511246 515241
      515239 512239 511236 509235 508231 509227 515215 519212
      519209 517202 515199 511195 508193 505195 500194 497195
      495193 495189 493184 488178 485176 481173 475168 466164
      464167 462172 464176 464178 457185 454188 450189 447189
      445187 443188 439192 442197 458207 479213 476217 471221
      465224 458227 452230 444231 440232 435232 426232 417232
      411231 408228 404224 401220 399210 396205 394200 393195
      394187 395182 398178 401174 405174 438177 447179 450176
      449171 446161 440154 437150 436143 434140 435136 437129
      437126 435126 432129 425136 413151 407155 404157 400155
      400149 398146 391147 376148 372141 370132 370125 372118
      374114 378112 387109 391107 393103 397099 392097 386096
      382099 376103 373100 373093 370081 367072 365068 365064
      368062 373062 376061 377059 371053 367046 360039 350038
      348039 348042 349046 350053 351059 349063 346066 343070
      344074 347081 347086 348092 346096 345103 344107 334110
      325114 320118 317121 316119 314116 309113 305112 303110
      299109 295109 290109 284108 271100 263093 255086 243074
      231060 227052 230050 236050 244051 252053 270054 290055
      310055 316055 319054 319051 316043 320035 323031 326029
      342017 339006 338000 338993 338988 340985 346981 351981
      356982 362986 372999 381013 386021 394027 398029 402030
      404031 405028 407024 409019 410015 409012 408005 406000
      401991 397982 393965 391955 390950 393947 397946 399948
      406953 412960 417968 422977 425988 428999 429013 431025
      431029 433030 438031 443032 446036 448051 451071
 0.01 451071 453078 457086 461102 464110 467119 471124 472121
      477121 488129 492130 495133 499134 512136 524139 529137
      535133 542130 551132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 494626 489631 481645 476654 472661 469664 464667
      461671 458676 454681 449687 440700 418730 414735 410741
      402756 399765 398768 396774 390782 385788 368811 369831
      375841 377844 381841 386838 389836 393839 393845 392851
      390859 399867 403864 406857 410850 414848 418840 422834
      427826 433816 437808 438804 441801 450790 455785 464783
      468780 470780 470783 467789 466794 464804 462808 462812
      464814 469832 471836 471840 473845 475844 480842 485841
      489842 493840 498838 503839 506836 508841 510846 510850
      513859 520858 523855 524851 524842 523836 519833 518829
      520805 524786 526764 527751 527747 528743 528737 529731
      528722 527711 525707 524703 524694 523684 522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 407674 406670 402671 397672 394674 390677 386680 381687
      378691 376697 370704 362711 353717 324738 301770 297772
      292773 289772 285773 265775 230793 227795 225798 224803
      222805 223817 224823 226825 226831 227838 230838 232833
      234828 234824 236821 239820 241823 243825 245823 250817
      254825 258834 262844 264855 269866 270882 270900 273910
      273924 270947 268954 268962 272968 279964 285958 287954
      289951 294944 294931 295924 296919 299891 303884 305875
      307871 306864 306858 304854 304845 305839 307832 310829
      323815 333804 344790 351782 356772 361762 366755 377742
      381735 387728 396710 400697 401692 404687 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511655 509646 507638 504634 501635 499638 496646
      494651 490656 458689 446704 439714 433726 429735 426739
      423744 414751 410756 409759 409763 413763 417765 418773
      417779 414785 411787 407789 401790 397793 391800 389805
      389810 394812 398811 404808 408807 411807 412822 417821
      420816 424805 431793 435783 438772 443767 447763 452760
      456759 460757 463754 466749 467743 472728 479719 481716
      486713 490702 498693 506683 509674 511663
 0.25 456145 459129 459119 457113 453102 450096 445093 441091
      437091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421107 420109 415109
      412105 411099 409096 407096 404102 402107 399105 396110
      396114 397116 406119 413119 418118 422120 425124 429122
      433116 435114 441115 444120 444128 439137 439143 443149
      450151 454149 456145
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 430216 431214 431212 430211 429210 427208 425209 424210
      423212 424215 426216 428217 430217 430216
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422073 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 406077 411076 419078 419084 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428030 428024 427018 424004 423994 421985 419979
      415973 410969 405964 402960 397960 396963 397970 400978
      406991 411003 414010 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 384706 383703 380704 373711 353725 337736 328744
      322754 312772 309776 305781 297789 293798 291803 291806
      288807 285808 282806 276803 272801 266800 261800 256801
      252804 251808 252810 257813 262814 270814 278812 284811
      286814 285817 283821 279825 276829 274834 273841 275849
      278852 280856 283860 287859 292847 296836 299827 305819
      315812 324805 330798 337791 350771 361754 374735 381725
      383719 385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352998
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 301091 302086 302081 301076 300073 294070 286068 270064
      253060 237057 239061 241063 245068 254079 266088 278096
      284098 289099 292098 297094 301091
 0.50 497670 495665 490667 481679 476678 473679 472681 467687
      462691 455701 450706 446712 441722 436737 434742 429746
      417753 416757 419758 424760 428765 431767 434766 438763
      440756 440752 442749 448744 457737 460731 463724 467720
      471716 472707 475700 479688 484684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 454134 453134 453132 453129 452127 451127 451126 451127
      449129 449130 448131 447133 446135 445138 445140 446141
      447142 449142 450141 451140 452139 453137 453135 454134
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 443099 443101 442103 441105 440107 440108 441110
      442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 425110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 420987 417982 414977 410974 403968
      401966 398968 400975 405986 410996 414005 416010 420014
      422018 423022 425019 425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 370722 364723 360725 353729 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327795 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 294088 295081 292077 282073 271070 260066 256065 249064
      254071 259080 266085 275090 279092 285094 289093 293088
      294088
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419998 418992 417987 414983 410980 407977 404977
      405982 407987 409991 412995 414998 416003 419003 358016
358015
      357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 298815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 416994 416991 415990 414989 414987 413987 412986 410986
      410987 411989 412991 413994 415995 416994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293824 294821 295817 294818 292821 291822 290823 290824
      289826 289829 290829 291827 291826 292824 293824

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020747
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHEAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.
FOR NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


WESTERN UNITED STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR
PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST (EVEN
WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS), WITH THE 00Z
UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER,
WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 507298 504303 502304 498303 498300 502293 505290
      507286 509279 510271 509261 509254 510252 511246 515241
      515239 512239 511236 509235 508231 509227 515215 519212
      519209 517202 515199 511195 508193 505195 500194 497195
      495193 495189 493184 488178 485176 481173 475168 466164
      464167 462172 464176 464178 457185 454188 450189 447189
      445187 443188 439192 442197 458207 479213 476217 471221
      465224 458227 452230 444231 440232 435232 426232 417232
      411231 408228 404224 401220 399210 396205 394200 393195
      394187 395182 398178 401174 405174 438177 447179 450176
      449171 446161 440154 437150 436143 434140 435136 437129
      437126 435126 432129 425136 413151 407155 404157 400155
      400149 398146 391147 376148 372141 370132 370125 372118
      374114 378112 387109 391107 393103 397099 392097 386096
      382099 376103 373100 373093 370081 367072 365068 365064
      368062 373062 376061 377059 371053 367046 360039 350038
      348039 348042 349046 350053 351059 349063 346066 343070
      344074 347081 347086 348092 346096 345103 344107 334110
      325114 320118 317121 316119 314116 309113 305112 303110
      299109 295109 290109 284108 271100 263093 255086 243074
      231060 227052 230050 236050 244051 252053 270054 290055
      310055 316055 319054 319051 316043 320035 323031 326029
      342017 339006 338000 338993 338988 340985 346981 351981
      356982 362986 372999 381013 386021 394027 398029 402030
      404031 405028 407024 409019 410015 409012 408005 406000
      401991 397982 393965 391955 390950 393947 397946 399948
      406953 412960 417968 422977 425988 428999 429013 431025
      431029 433030 438031 443032 446036 448051 451071
 0.01 451071 453078 457086 461102 464110 467119 471124 472121
      477121 488129 492130 495133 499134 512136 524139 529137
      535133 542130 551132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 494626 489631 481645 476654 472661 469664 464667
      461671 458676 454681 449687 440700 418730 414735 410741
      402756 399765 398768 396774 390782 385788 368811 369831
      375841 377844 381841 386838 389836 393839 393845 392851
      390859 399867 403864 406857 410850 414848 418840 422834
      427826 433816 437808 438804 441801 450790 455785 464783
      468780 470780 470783 467789 466794 464804 462808 462812
      464814 469832 471836 471840 473845 475844 480842 485841
      489842 493840 498838 503839 506836 508841 510846 510850
      513859 520858 523855 524851 524842 523836 519833 518829
      520805 524786 526764 527751 527747 528743 528737 529731
      528722 527711 525707 524703 524694 523684 522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 407674 406670 402671 397672 394674 390677 386680 381687
      378691 376697 370704 362711 353717 324738 301770 297772
      292773 289772 285773 265775 230793 227795 225798 224803
      222805 223817 224823 226825 226831 227838 230838 232833
      234828 234824 236821 239820 241823 243825 245823 250817
      254825 258834 262844 264855 269866 270882 270900 273910
      273924 270947 268954 268962 272968 279964 285958 287954
      289951 294944 294931 295924 296919 299891 303884 305875
      307871 306864 306858 304854 304845 305839 307832 310829
      323815 333804 344790 351782 356772 361762 366755 377742
      381735 387728 396710 400697 401692 404687 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511655 509646 507638 504634 501635 499638 496646
      494651 490656 458689 446704 439714 433726 429735 426739
      423744 414751 410756 409759 409763 413763 417765 418773
      417779 414785 411787 407789 401790 397793 391800 389805
      389810 394812 398811 404808 408807 411807 412822 417821
      420816 424805 431793 435783 438772 443767 447763 452760
      456759 460757 463754 466749 467743 472728 479719 481716
      486713 490702 498693 506683 509674 511663
 0.25 456145 459129 459119 457113 453102 450096 445093 441091
      437091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421107 420109 415109
      412105 411099 409096 407096 404102 402107 399105 396110
      396114 397116 406119 413119 418118 422120 425124 429122
      433116 435114 441115 444120 444128 439137 439143 443149
      450151 454149 456145
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 430216 431214 431212 430211 429210 427208 425209 424210
      423212 424215 426216 428217 430217 430216
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422073 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 406077 411076 419078 419084 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428030 428024 427018 424004 423994 421985 419979
      415973 410969 405964 402960 397960 396963 397970 400978
      406991 411003 414010 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 384706 383703 380704 373711 353725 337736 328744
      322754 312772 309776 305781 297789 293798 291803 291806
      288807 285808 282806 276803 272801 266800 261800 256801
      252804 251808 252810 257813 262814 270814 278812 284811
      286814 285817 283821 279825 276829 274834 273841 275849
      278852 280856 283860 287859 292847 296836 299827 305819
      315812 324805 330798 337791 350771 361754 374735 381725
      383719 385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352998
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 301091 302086 302081 301076 300073 294070 286068 270064
      253060 237057 239061 241063 245068 254079 266088 278096
      284098 289099 292098 297094 301091
 0.50 497670 495665 490667 481679 476678 473679 472681 467687
      462691 455701 450706 446712 441722 436737 434742 429746
      417753 416757 419758 424760 428765 431767 434766 438763
      440756 440752 442749 448744 457737 460731 463724 467720
      471716 472707 475700 479688 484684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 454134 453134 453132 453129 452127 451127 451126 451127
      449129 449130 448131 447133 446135 445138 445140 446141
      447142 449142 450141 451140 452139 453137 453135 454134
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 443099 443101 442103 441105 440107 440108 441110
      442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 425110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 420987 417982 414977 410974 403968
      401966 398968 400975 405986 410996 414005 416010 420014
      422018 423022 425019 425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 370722 364723 360725 353729 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327795 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 294088 295081 292077 282073 271070 260066 256065 249064
      254071 259080 266085 275090 279092 285094 289093 293088
      294088
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419998 418992 417987 414983 410980 407977 404977
      405982 407987 409991 412995 414998 416003 419003 358016
358015
      357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 298815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 416994 416991 415990 414989 414987 413987 412986 410986
      410987 411989 412991 413994 415995 416994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293824 294821 295817 294818 292821 291822 290823 290824
      289826 289829 290829 291827 291826 292824 293824

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020747
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHEAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.
FOR NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


WESTERN UNITED STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


DAYS 2/3...

ROCKIES/MONTANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OF THE TWO DAYS, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC HELPS SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THE TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROLLS AROUND, LEAVING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE
CENTER OF ACTION.  USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS HERE FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF EASTERN MT WHERE THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL, SO THINK ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.


PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COMBINED WITH THE USUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION
IS QUITE MINIMAL, IF EXISTENT.  THE 21Z SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP DEVELOP CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER, SD, AND TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR
PORTIONS OF KS, NE, AND MO.  TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OVERALL SETUP THAN MONDAY FOR THESE COMPLEXES, BUT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS REGION DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
PLACED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
DEAL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  DECIDED AGAINST A MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY AS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
KS/MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THOUGHT THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF HAD A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST (EVEN
WHEN CONSULTING THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS MASS FIELDS), WITH THE 00Z
UKMET HAVING SOME UTILITY ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z
UKMET IDEAS SEEMED BETTER QPF-WISE NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER,
WHICH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF NY MONDAY.  WHILE MASS
FIELDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR, PROGRESSION ISSUES ARE SEEN IN
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS QPF-WISE.  HAVE LEANED ON
A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO HERE SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES
WERE ALSO SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AVAILABLE 24 HOURS AGO.  THE 21Z
SREF MEAN SHOWS CAPES >1000 J/KG WHILE THE 00Z GFS ADVERTISES 850
HPA INFLOW OF 30-50 KTS STREAMING INTO THE REGION.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO THIS REGION.


FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.  LIGHT FLOW IN
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/THE EVERGLADES/NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE QPF PATTERN IN
THIS REGION.  A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SC AND NC, SO ANY WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP SUBSTANTIALLY.  STAY TUNED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 511294 507298 504303 502304 498303 498300 502293 505290
      507286 509279 510271 509261 509254 510252 511246 515241
      515239 512239 511236 509235 508231 509227 515215 519212
      519209 517202 515199 511195 508193 505195 500194 497195
      495193 495189 493184 488178 485176 481173 475168 466164
      464167 462172 464176 464178 457185 454188 450189 447189
      445187 443188 439192 442197 458207 479213 476217 471221
      465224 458227 452230 444231 440232 435232 426232 417232
      411231 408228 404224 401220 399210 396205 394200 393195
      394187 395182 398178 401174 405174 438177 447179 450176
      449171 446161 440154 437150 436143 434140 435136 437129
      437126 435126 432129 425136 413151 407155 404157 400155
      400149 398146 391147 376148 372141 370132 370125 372118
      374114 378112 387109 391107 393103 397099 392097 386096
      382099 376103 373100 373093 370081 367072 365068 365064
      368062 373062 376061 377059 371053 367046 360039 350038
      348039 348042 349046 350053 351059 349063 346066 343070
      344074 347081 347086 348092 346096 345103 344107 334110
      325114 320118 317121 316119 314116 309113 305112 303110
      299109 295109 290109 284108 271100 263093 255086 243074
      231060 227052 230050 236050 244051 252053 270054 290055
      310055 316055 319054 319051 316043 320035 323031 326029
      342017 339006 338000 338993 338988 340985 346981 351981
      356982 362986 372999 381013 386021 394027 398029 402030
      404031 405028 407024 409019 410015 409012 408005 406000
      401991 397982 393965 391955 390950 393947 397946 399948
      406953 412960 417968 422977 425988 428999 429013 431025
      431029 433030 438031 443032 446036 448051 451071
 0.01 451071 453078 457086 461102 464110 467119 471124 472121
      477121 488129 492130 495133 499134 512136 524139 529137
      535133 542130 551132 554132 556130
 0.01 502622 494626 489631 481645 476654 472661 469664 464667
      461671 458676 454681 449687 440700 418730 414735 410741
      402756 399765 398768 396774 390782 385788 368811 369831
      375841 377844 381841 386838 389836 393839 393845 392851
      390859 399867 403864 406857 410850 414848 418840 422834
      427826 433816 437808 438804 441801 450790 455785 464783
      468780 470780 470783 467789 466794 464804 462808 462812
      464814 469832 471836 471840 473845 475844 480842 485841
      489842 493840 498838 503839 506836 508841 510846 510850
      513859 520858 523855 524851 524842 523836 519833 518829
      520805 524786 526764 527751 527747 528743 528737 529731
      528722 527711 525707 524703 524694 523684 522675
 0.01 489154 486151 484149 483148 480145 478143 475142 472141
      471145 473148 474150 477151 481152 482154 485156 489154
 0.01 407674 406670 402671 397672 394674 390677 386680 381687
      378691 376697 370704 362711 353717 324738 301770 297772
      292773 289772 285773 265775 230793 227795 225798 224803
      222805 223817 224823 226825 226831 227838 230838 232833
      234828 234824 236821 239820 241823 243825 245823 250817
      254825 258834 262844 264855 269866 270882 270900 273910
      273924 270947 268954 268962 272968 279964 285958 287954
      289951 294944 294931 295924 296919 299891 303884 305875
      307871 306864 306858 304854 304845 305839 307832 310829
      323815 333804 344790 351782 356772 361762 366755 377742
      381735 387728 396710 400697 401692 404687 407674
 0.01 306042 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042
 0.25 550164 549164 548164 547165 546166 545167 544168 543170
      543171 542173 541176 541177 540178 540181 541184 541185
      542187 543188 543190 544193
 0.25 511663 511655 509646 507638 504634 501635 499638 496646
      494651 490656 458689 446704 439714 433726 429735 426739
      423744 414751 410756 409759 409763 413763 417765 418773
      417779 414785 411787 407789 401790 397793 391800 389805
      389810 394812 398811 404808 408807 411807 412822 417821
      420816 424805 431793 435783 438772 443767 447763 452760
      456759 460757 463754 466749 467743 472728 479719 481716
      486713 490702 498693 506683 509674 511663
 0.25 456145 459129 459119 457113 453102 450096 445093 441091
      437091 431092 427091 425096 423102 421107 420109 415109
      412105 411099 409096 407096 404102 402107 399105 396110
      396114 397116 406119 413119 418118 422120 425124 429122
      433116 435114 441115 444120 444128 439137 439143 443149
      450151 454149 456145
 0.25 450080 450078 450076 449075 448073 447072 446072 445071
      443070 441069 441072 441073 442074 443075 444077 446079
      448080 449081 450080
 0.25 430216 431214 431212 430211 429210 427208 425209 424210
      423212 424215 426216 428217 430217 430216
 0.25 429082 428078 425075 422073 421069 416062 409057 395050
      393047 388046 381049 378052 379056 384056 384054 385059
      389059 395062 391068 390077 391083 393086 396088 399085
      404079 406077 411076 419078 419084 421088 426086 429082
 0.25 426039 428030 428024 427018 424004 423994 421985 419979
      415973 410969 405964 402960 397960 396963 397970 400978
      406991 411003 414010 418017 421022 423030 424038 426039
 0.25 385713 384706 383703 380704 373711 353725 337736 328744
      322754 312772 309776 305781 297789 293798 291803 291806
      288807 285808 282806 276803 272801 266800 261800 256801
      252804 251808 252810 257813 262814 270814 278812 284811
      286814 285817 283821 279825 276829 274834 273841 275849
      278852 280856 283860 287859 292847 296836 299827 305819
      315812 324805 330798 337791 350771 361754 374735 381725
      383719 385713
 0.25 379078 379076 378074 378073 377071 376070 375069 375068
      373067 372068 372071 373072 373073 373075 373077 374079
      374080 375082 377082 379080 379078
 0.25 374024 372017 368010 365001 361996 358995 353996 352998
      351004 349013 351022 355028 362032 368035 370034 373030
      374024
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 301091 302086 302081 301076 300073 294070 286068 270064
      253060 237057 239061 241063 245068 254079 266088 278096
      284098 289099 292098 297094 301091
 0.50 497670 495665 490667 481679 476678 473679 472681 467687
      462691 455701 450706 446712 441722 436737 434742 429746
      417753 416757 419758 424760 428765 431767 434766 438763
      440756 440752 442749 448744 457737 460731 463724 467720
      471716 472707 475700 479688 484684 490680 495676 497670
 0.50 454134 453134 453132 453129 452127 451127 451126 451127
      449129 449130 448131 447133 446135 445138 445140 446141
      447142 449142 450141 451140 452139 453137 453135 454134
 0.50 447111 448109 448107 448104 448102 448099 447097 446097
      445098 443099 443101 442103 441105 440107 440108 441110
      442112 443113 445113 447111 447111
 0.50 426113 427110 427108 426108 425110 425112 426113 426113
 0.50 425018 422006 420992 420987 417982 414977 410974 403968
      401966 398968 400975 405986 410996 414005 416010 420014
      422018 423022 425019 425018
 0.50 410110 410108 410105 410103 409101 408098 407100 406102
      406103 405105 405107 405109 405110 407112 408111 410110
 0.50 405067 403066 401067 400068 398069 397069 396070 395071
      394073 394074 393075 394077 394078 395080 397079 397078
      399076 401074 403072 403071 404070 405068 405067
 0.50 373729 373724 370722 364723 360725 353729 345736 334748
      325763 319780 316789 315794 319795 322796 327795 333789
      339783 344776 354762 364746 373731 373729
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 375075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 365025 366021 366016 365013 363009 363007 362005 360003
      356002 355005 354007 353011 353016 354019 356022 357024
      359025 363026 365025
 0.50 312798 310797 308797 307798 306799 305800 304802 303804
      305805 307805 309804 311803 312801 312798 312798
 0.50 302812 299811 295812 292816 288821 283827 279832 277840
      280843 285843 290838 293832 296826 300819 302812
 0.50 294088 295081 292077 282073 271070 260066 256065 249064
      254071 259080 266085 275090 279092 285094 289093 293088
      294088
 0.50 274805 272803 270802 266801 263801 259802 256803 254805
      254808 256809 258810 262809 265809 269808 271808 274805
 1.00 419003 419998 418992 417987 414983 410980 407977 404977
      405982 407987 409991 412995 414998 416003 419003 358016
358015
      357016 358016 358016
 1.00 360745 358742 355740 351742 348745 344750 341757 338763
      335770 335772 338775 342772 347767 352760 355755 359747
      360745
 1.00 297817 298815 295814 292818 290821 288824 286829 283831
      283834 284836 288835 291830 293827 294824 297819 297817
 1.50 416994 416991 415990 414989 414987 413987 412986 410986
      410987 411989 412991 413994 415995 416994
 1.50 353753 354751 352749 349751 347753 346756 344758 343761
      342764 343767 345765 347763 349760 350758 352755 353753
 1.50 293824 294821 295817 294818 292821 291822 290823 290824
      289826 289829 290829 291827 291826 292824 293824

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505287 504278 504271 505260 506255 508253
      511247 515243 517240 516235 519228 523224 525217 527214
      530215 535217 536220
 0.01 539204 534205 527204 516195 492183 488178 483174 479170
      474168 471167 468168 465169 463172 464176 463179 459185
      455190 449193 439190 423209 419214 416215 416206 415199
      410184 407179 402174 396170 392166 394145 395128 395123
      392122 386120 387112 389107 391103 395098 401100 405095
      407088 409084 411084 423110 426115 429123 427140 430154
      432154 432150 433141 435133 436127 436120 433113 432106
      433102 431098 427092 426089 428087 431086 433083 432073
      432062 427049 428033 425026 421022 410016 406012 404007
      404997 403992 400990 394991 387993 374997 368998 365000
      364004 360009 356012 349012 344008 342006 341001 341991
      340984 340980 342978 344971 348965 354952 357945 359936
      359930 357922 354906 355900 357893 360887 361878 364873
      368867 369864 372864 375866 375870 380886 393911 398922
      405933 409940 413945 420954 441971 449979 457991 460997
      462001 462006 465023 468028 472031 475033 479034 484035
      487035 490033 495030 502029 509029 520035 525039 529044
      534048 537048 539051 553056 555058 558059 560059 560063
      560074 558079 555085 554089 556092 560101
 0.01 550819 549814 547808 544801 538797 533800 531806 532811
      534817 532822 527844 524844 523850 523860 525865 528868
      530870 533867 532857 531851 534854 536859 538864 539866
      542869 544866 547864 547855 543844 543841 544836 546830
      548826 550819
 0.01 501620 497626 493626 489628 481629 474633 468638 465640
      461641 456639 453638 448640 440644 431647 426649 423651
      415654 409659 404664 393671 387677 383684 372696 361706
      356712 350718 342728 337734 331739 322749 316755 313760
      302772 299774 295775 288780 274787 267791 260794 248802
      239810 236809 234805 232804 231799 227793 223794 224797
      222802 223806 223817 224823 226825 227833 226838 227842
      230843 231840 234832 236830 238833 239845 239848 243845
      248843 253837 262829 268827 274829 281833 289835 293837
      293843 292852 290860 286866 283873 281881 281891 280894
      280898 280909 281917 286933 294945 300950 307946 312943
      315943 317939 318930 316921 313913 311905 311896 311887
      311876 311871 312868 314864 314860 313854 311850 310840
      308831 311822 311817 313813 317807 322801 333791 344781
      349775 356771 360769 358775 355784 360790 363789 365785
      368780 380769 394761 398754 401746 405739 410733 413728
      417723 422718 428711 431708 433706 434708 432718 429735
      427744 424751 421756 420761 420771 420793 420801 427798
      429795 433795 436793 440793 448795 455798 458798 460800
      464801 467804 469811 473818 474821 477822 480822 482824
      485824 489826 493825 498819 505806 508803 510799 513791
      515780 518772 519764 521755 523745 525734 522710 520688
      519678 521673
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484321 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 416062 412059 406056 402055 398055 394050 389048 383048
      378049 367052 360053 357056 379059 383063 383065 380065
      378068 376066 371062 368063 363063 359065 357067 358069
      362069 365068 368070 370075 372080 375085 380086 384087
      385090 385093 387091 389086 394083 397085 400080 404079
      405077 413071 410063 414064 416062
 0.01 381094 380094 378094 378096 379096 380096 381094
 0.01 315052 316049 315045 311044 309040 308036 305032 303032
      300036 300042 302044 306045 307047 309051 314052 315052
 0.01 307100 308093 307088 306076 302067 299065 293063 281063
      276061 272058 256050 247046 243046 239047 235051 234057
      239064 252077 258083 266088 272094 279099 289104 293105
      299105 304103 307100
 0.25 556129 553119 551113 549110 545107 541108 536115 531123
      525129 522131 521138 521146 522150 526153 530155 534158
      536161 538167 539172 541177 545179 547180
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 504649 502649 501649 499649 497650 497652 497654 498654
      500654 501653 502653 503652 504649 504649
 0.25 504062 504057 501054 496052 492052 487053 483054 480057
      479062 483064 488064 493064 497064 501064 504062
 0.25 497151 497145 495142 489137 484132 479127 477124 473123
      469128 471135 471146 478145 484149 491153 495153 497151
 0.25 482657 482654 482652 481649 480647 480646 479647 479650
      479652 479653 478655 479658 480659 482658 482657
 0.25 479663 477663 477664 479663 479663
 0.25 485111 484106 482102 478096 474090 472082 467068 463061
      461054 460044 459032 456014 454006 451999 444988 434977
      430972 423968 418970 413965 408952 394925 381900 376893
      374891 370889 365895 363902 362912 364923 367938 368947
      368957 368967 369975 371978 375979 381979 387978 392978
      395979 402983 409981 413982 415984 418991 424004 430016
      437031 440049 443065 444075 446082 446088 445092 442094
      441098 442102 441108 440115 444121 444129 443137 444142
      446144 452147 456147 459145 459139 460133 461130 460126
      458123 458119 458114 459111 472114 480114 485111
 0.25 471668 470666 467665 464665 463662 460652 457649 452648
      445650 434655 412670 392683 384692 377701 370709 361718
      357722 354727 347737 333754 326763 320773 316783 313788
      312792 314795 319792 324789 332780 339771 344761 348756
      354753 361752 365749 369745 373742 375742 375745 373751
      372759 373763 376763 387756 388754 388750 386747 386743
      389736 392732 406711 410708 414707 417702 419696 422690
      425684 431681 437679 456686 464684 467682 467679 468671
      471668
 0.25 469150 468148 466147 466149 467151 469150
 0.25 448724 448719 446717 444717 443720 442723 441727 440731
      439733 440738 441741 443744 444742 445739 446734 447732
      447727 448724
 0.25 434763 434761 433759 432758 431759 430760 430762 429764
      429766 429767 429768 430769 430771 432773 433771 434768
      434766 434765 434763
 0.25 358000 358998 357996 357994 357993 356991 355991 353990
      351990 350990 349991 348993 348995 349998 349000 350002
      351003 353003 355003 356002 358000
 0.25 301091 300084 298078 294074 289072 277068 264064 258063
      253063 249064 249067 252071 259078 268086 277092 287098
      294099 298097 301091
 0.25 296815 295813 291812 289814 287816 285819 283821 282823
      284825 287826 289824 292822 294820 295817 296815
 0.25 293887 293883 291882 288887 286893 284900 285908 286916
      288920 290923 291920 290914 289906 289898 291893 293887
 0.25 279811 276807 274805 269804 263805 258806 256809 258813
      260815 264817 270817 273816 278813 279811
 0.50 555136 553128 550121 547117 543119 540124 537129 533134
      531141 530146 532147 536148 538150 540156 542164 546169
      548171
 0.50 455661 455655 453653 450653 447656 445657 442659 440661
      439664 439665 443666 446665 448665 450667 452666 453663
      455661
 0.50 466090 464077 460067 458060 457054 456048 456040 454024
      452012 450006 448001 443993 436984 428978 423975 421976
      420983 422989 426000 430011 440030 444041 447053 449066
      453077 458087 462091 465092 466090
 0.50 454108 454105 454100 453095 452095 449095 446096 445099
      446104 446106 445110 445111 447114 450115 452112 453110
      454108
 0.50 409688 409685 407685 403685 396688 391694 386701 373710
      368716 361722 357728 353735 349742 348746 350748 359748
      364743 369736 373731 380725 387721 396707 406694 409688
 0.50 406973 406966 405961 403954 400945 397938 390924 382911
      378905 373902 369902 367905 365914 366923 369932 371940
      372949 374959 377967 382972 389973 397975 401976 404975
      406973
 0.50 382757 383754 382754 380755 378756 377757 376758 377758
      379759 380758 382757 382757
 0.50 343755 341752 338755 334760 329766 325771 321778 320783
      323785 325783 330777 333771 337764 341758 343755
 0.50 295092 293085 288079 283076 276073 269070 261070 259072
      261075 266080 271085 277089 284092 291094 295092
 1.00 550145 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133 544135
      544136 544138 544139 545141 545142 547145 548146 550146
      550145
 1.00 452042 450029 448015 444003 439995 431987 430986 427986
      427992 431004 435015 440024 446034 448039 451044 452042
 1.00 400970 401965 400961 398954 394943 391936 389931 382921
      378917 374914 371913 370916 369921 371929 373935 377947
      379954 380963 384967 391967 400970
 1.00 376719 376717 375717 373717 372719 372720 374720 376719
      376719
 1.00 364733 363731 363730 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737
      356738 356739 357740 358740 360739 361738 362737 363735
      364733
 1.50 446017 445012 443007 441002 439000 436996 433993 431992
      432997 434002 435007 437011 439014 442018 446017
 1.50 395963 393954 391945 388938 384932 379927 375922 373928
      376936 379943 383949 384953 384959 391961 395963
 2.00 384940 384939 383938 382937 380937 379938 380940 380941
      382942 384941 384940

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 020626
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/1200 UTC THRU AUG 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FEED SURGES OF
CONVECTION THAT TRACK ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL DURING DAY 1...PRODUCING
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK
TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE ON THE
TROUGH...RESULTING INTO TOO LITTLE QPF FOR NORTHERN FL...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (WITH 00Z GFS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FURTHER SOUTH). EACH
SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...WHICH LEADS TO A BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIUM QPF. FOR
NOW...A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE BEST MEAN LAYER INSTABILITY
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REDEVELOP CLOSER TO 02/12Z...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE WEST COAST SURGES
EASTWARD. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS CENTERED AROUND
02/18Z...AND SLOWLY TAILS OFF AFTER THAT TIME. THE BEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02/12Z AND 03/00Z...AFTER WHICH THE BEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR (ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATES THAT A BASIN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF QPF SHOULD BE EXPECTED BETWEEN KCTY
AND KBKV.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE QPF
MAXIMUM OCCURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST FOR MAXIMUM QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. LIKE
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT OF MAXIMUM
QPF. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE PLACED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FROM KTPA
NORTHWEST INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.

OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FROM
KTTS THROUGH KFPR. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF
0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGH RESOLUTIONS
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF NMMB) SUGGEST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE.


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS
MI...WHICH LEADS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LP OF MI.
THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE
ON THIS BLEND.

THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE 02/18Z.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO TO THE MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... THE CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVING WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES AFTER 02/18Z...AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSSES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST INFLOW TRANSPORTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (MAINLY
WI/MI). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
MOISTEN...SUGGESTING THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE CENTERED
IN THE 30/00Z THROUGH 03/06Z TIME FRAME...AND A LARGE AREA OF 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER MI AND SOUTHEAST WI.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS HAD MAXIMUM
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...THOUGH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS THE LP OF MI INTO NEARBY ONTARIO). THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...AND THE 14 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SUGGESTING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS IMPRESSIVE...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...SO OUTSIDE OF TRAINING...THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.


...WESTERN UNITED STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...AND PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE ARE DIVERTED INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF...AND WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF
ARW TO BETTER DEPICT HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH THEN TRACKS INTO NORTH TX. INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 02/12Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN
NM DURING THE DAY ...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
FUEL CONVECTION THAT IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.

CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHWEST OK. THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A SMALL MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
WEST TX IN THE 03/6Z TO 03/12Z TIME FRAME. WHILE AN MCS COULD
FORM...THERE IS NOT A STRONG MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR IT TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH ITS QPF ACROSS NORTH
TX...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND ON THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF HERE.

THE BEST THRUST OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN (AS SEEN ON THE LATEST HIGH
AND MID LEVEL LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES). THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OUT OF AZ THROUGH
NV AND UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS WESTERN CO (INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS) INTO NEARBY SOUTHEAST UT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HERE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS  ABOVE
THE MEAN...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL 2.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT TAP THE HIGH MOISTURE AIR...AND BASED ON
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN CO SAT...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE...BUT WESTERN CO AND SOUTHEAST UT SEEM TO BE IN THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. WHILE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES MAY BE COMMON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE ONE AND THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AN INCH OR LESS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS. EITHER A SEE TEXT OR SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY DEPEND ON COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES.

FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV INTO
NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR. AT THIS POINT...THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555125 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 523097 520099 516104 514105 512100
      509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499141 501147
      504152 508155 516163 521172 523177 525185 526191 526198
      529198 532192 536191 539193 538198 536205 536209 537212
      537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191 538188 539186
      540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 547928 547905 546879 545856 544847 543834 536795 534792
      533787 531781 528775 524775 521778 518782 515789 513797
      512801 509805 505818 501837 502856 506872 509880 511887
      518902 528931 534945 535947 539947 544941 544933 547928
 0.01 517660 513656 510653 507652 504652 499653 493658 481674
      476681 470687 465692 460699 456706 451714 448722 443730
      432744 418776 412793 409804 406815 402833 399840 396843
      392846 389847 388852 385862 382873 382886 374899 374902
      378905 380907 380911 380917 378923 380929 380934 382938
      387943 390944 389947 388951 385958 385965 385970 386975
      388980 394986 397986 401983 405975 409967 413959 416952
      419943 421940 422934 425924 426919 429915 432912 436912
      455915 472917 475915 477911 481902 484891 486879 488869
      490859 494836 495825 496813 495798 495791 493787 492783
      495779 500773 510759 533731 533726 534722 533706
 0.01 446226 445221 443215 439211 437206 433203 427200 415198
      413195 413192 416187 417168 416160 412156 410152 409147
      411143 413130 416114 418108 418099 419093 418083 414066
      416064 416059 414053 410050 407045 400035 400028 400024
      399023 397023 395026 392031 387035 383035 382032 379026
      379021 377011 373006 371001 367999 366996 366991 368990
      364985 355980 345977 341976 336979 332983 330990 329996
      329003 331011 330016 328025 330030 335034 337036 338040
      338048 337052 336055 319043 316046 318050 326059 337064
      336067 334068 331068 326068 320068 315071 309070 304071
      284064 279063 274061 268059 260058 254056 247055 237053
      234056 235060 238065 243070 247073 253081 261087 266089
      273090 280091 283093 283097 286102 291106 296109 302114
      311121 321126 322128 326124 325118 327113 331113 335116
      338122 341127 346132 349131 351128 355122 357120 357115
      354110 353108 356107 363106 363114 364119 362125 365129
      362136 356144 355149 356152 359157 367167 368169 368174
      368179 366182 361184 364185 367187 371189 372192 378199
      383203 387207 392210 397215 401219 403224 404227 404232
      407239 412241 415243 418245 423246 425243 424234 428230
      432228 437227 446226
 0.01 385675 369679 360681 355688 348693 342699 332713 324726
      318741 309756 305763 300770 295774 285777 281777 278779
      268781 252788 246805 245807 245811 247815 250818 256817
      260818 263820 266823 267826 264835 262839 262844 263856
      265877 266899 266908 265919 264929 261939 259945 258956
      257965 257968 260966 264963 269962 274958 284943 287938
      290934 294933 299933 301930 301925 303922 302899 306891
      307886 307882 308865 313849 321834 325827 328823 334822
      339818 342815 343811 345801 348794 354778 362760 376731
      382716 384712 385706 384699 385694 385675
 0.01 386747 384746 381747 379750 378753 378755 376758 375760
      375765 376765 379762 381760 382759 384754 385754 385749
      386747
 0.25 504723 503715 499711 494714 489718 480724 477726 474726
      468726 459731 456734 452740 447750 441761 436770 431781
      420804 416813 412824 408836 407843 406852 407863 405876
      404884 402889 397892 393897 394904 396908 403917 406919
      408914 412917 415918 417916 424907 429898 432893 436889
      440885 444885 449884 454882 456878 459871 462859 465844
      467829 470817 476787 482764 484759 487754 495744 498739
      501734 504723
 0.25 475892 475886 473880 471878 469870 467866 465867 464870
      463876 464883 465890 465895 467901 471900 473895 475892
 0.25 416229 418225 418220 418216 416213 414212 411210 408211
      407215 408218 410220 411225 411228 413230 416229
 0.25 409110 410104 409098 406098 404104 401108 397108 392105
      388102 392091 392078 393074 397071 398063 397059 394055
      388049 377046 372044 367041 364033 364025 365014 364007
      359007 351009 348013 348020 350025 353028 360036 362040
      360046 356056 357058 360058 364056 369056 375056 379059
      377062 373062 369060 366063 362063 359062 357063 357067
      360071 363073 368080 370086 373090 375094 377100 379103
      381105 384105 386105 385110 382109 379112 375123 373127
      372132 378132 381131 388125 391121 396119 402113 407112
      409110
 0.25 394177 396173 397168 396164 394162 391161 389163 387166
      386168 385173 386175 387178 390180 392179 394177
 0.25 390201 388199 386196 385194 383192 382190 379187 377186
      376188 378190 380192 383194 384196 386198 389201 390201
 0.25 365730 365726 364722 363718 361716 359715 358711 356708
      354708 351709 342712 338717 332730 320750 313762 306776
      300785 297790 295792 292794 284794 276797 261801 256804
      254806 256808 266812 274813 277814 278818 274824 272830
      271836 271845 272863 274880 275890 275900 273906 273913
      273922 272929 270942 270946 272948 274946 276942 280930
      282924 282914 284906 286900 289894 291886 310834 315823
      322812 330802 337791 349768 360742 365730
 0.25 368093 368090 368088 366086 364086 363085 362085 361086
      359086 358087 359089 360091 361092 362093 363094 363095
      365095 367095 367094 368093
 0.25 352991 351991 350991 348991 349991 351991 352991
 0.25 341098 341096 341093 340092 339091 337092 336093 337093
      337095 338097 338098 340098 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 329079 330081 330082 331081
 0.25 300084 300082 299081 297081 296080 294080 292081 293083
      293084 295086 297086 299086 300084
 0.50 472761 471756 469754 464756 459763 457766 454769 448771
      443776 438783 434790 427802 423808 420818 416833 413841
      414847 415851 415862 415871 415877 417880 416886 413893
      412901 413910 415909 418905 421899 425893 429886 430880
      432877 437873 440872 443873 447874 450872 454864 456856
      456846 459825 460816 460806 463785 465777 467772 472761
 0.50 415227 415224 414223 413224 414226 414227 415227
 0.50 381081 382078 382076 382074 382072 381072 380070 379069
      378069 376068 375067 374069 374071 374073 374075 374077
      374078 374080 375082 377082 379082 381081 381081
 0.50 356730 352723 348723 343725 336729 331737 324750 320757
      316765 310778 306786 303795 302804 301813 298815 295813
      291812 288815 282819 277824 275828 274832 273838 274845
      277864 278869 281871 284870 287866 297855 303840 306832
      309825 309820 311816 317811 327799 336786 350756 353751
      354744 356730
 0.50 293805 292803 289801 287800 284800 281800 278801 276802
      272803 270804 270808 272810 275811 278811 282810 286809
      289809 292807 293805
 1.00 448817 447814 447812 447811 445810 443808 442808 440808
      440810 440813 441815 441817 442819 443820 444822 445822
      446821 447819 447818 448817
 1.00 447860 446860 446858 445856 443858 443860 443861 443863
      445863 446863 446861 447860
 1.00 346752 346747 344743 342744 339748 337750 337747 339743
      338740 334745 331751 328758 327762 325766 321771 317777
      311790 310797 312801 316801 321796 325790 334779 338773
      340766 343759 346752
 1.00 302829 301827 298824 292820 289819 285820 280825 277832
      277838 278848 279853 282856 284857 288856 292850 296845
      300838 302830 302829
 1.50 335765 334763 332765 332768 333769 334767 335765
 1.50 332772 332770 331769 331770 330772 331772 332772
 1.50 327779 327777 326776 324777 323777 323778 322780 321780
      320782 320783 319785 320786 322785 323784 323783 325782
      325781 327779 327779
 1.50 299836 300832 298828 294825 289823 285823 283825 280830
      280838 280846 283851 287851 290849 293845 296840 299836
 2.00 299834 298830 294827 291826 286827 283829 282834 282840
      283845 285848 289847 292844 295841 297837 299834
 3.00 297834 297832 295830 293829 292828 291828 289828 289829
      287830 286831 286833 286835 286837 286839 288840 290840
      292840 293839 294839 295837 296836 297834 297834

$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 020448
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020503
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020438
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020453
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020428
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020443
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020418
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020433
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020418
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020433
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020409
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020423
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1108 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020405
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020419
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020405
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020419
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020403
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020417
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020403
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1048 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020328
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020343
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020319
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1018 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020333
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1018 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020308
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1008 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1008 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020305
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020319
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1004 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020302
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020302
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
938 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
938 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020228
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020243
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
928 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020218
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
918 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020209
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020223
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
908 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020205
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020219
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
904 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020203
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020217
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
902 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020148
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020203
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
838 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
838 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020128
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020143
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020104
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
804 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
804 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020104
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
804 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
804 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020102
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
802 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020102
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
802 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
FOUS30 KWBC 020053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOBS..AND RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS..PREVIOUS OUTLINED THREAT AREAS FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS STILL APPEAR GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE EARLIER ISSUANCE.  THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS..CONCENTRATED VICINITY OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
IN A PERSISTENT AND RATHER DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N AAF TLH 20 NNW 40J 35 NNE CTY 15 ENE OCF 10 N GIF 30 N PGD
10 WNW SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF 45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF.

...FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.


...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES/TERRY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOBS..AND RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS..PREVIOUS OUTLINED THREAT AREAS FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS STILL APPEAR GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE EARLIER ISSUANCE.  THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS..CONCENTRATED VICINITY OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
IN A PERSISTENT AND RATHER DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N AAF TLH 20 NNW 40J 35 NNE CTY 15 ENE OCF 10 N GIF 30 N PGD
10 WNW SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF 45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF.

...FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.


...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES/TERRY
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 020053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOBS..AND RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS..PREVIOUS OUTLINED THREAT AREAS FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS STILL APPEAR GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE EARLIER ISSUANCE.  THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS..CONCENTRATED VICINITY OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
IN A PERSISTENT AND RATHER DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N AAF TLH 20 NNW 40J 35 NNE CTY 15 ENE OCF 10 N GIF 30 N PGD
10 WNW SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF 45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF.

...FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.


...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES/TERRY
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 020053
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 01Z SUN AUG 02 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOBS..AND RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS..PREVIOUS OUTLINED THREAT AREAS FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS STILL APPEAR GOOD..SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE EARLIER ISSUANCE.  THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS..CONCENTRATED VICINITY OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
IN A PERSISTENT AND RATHER DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N AAF TLH 20 NNW 40J 35 NNE CTY 15 ENE OCF 10 N GIF 30 N PGD
10 WNW SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF 45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF.

...FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.


...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES/TERRY
$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 020048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
748 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020038
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020038
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020018
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
718 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020005
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020019
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020005
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020019
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 020003
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020017
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
702 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020003
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-020003
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012328
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012343
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012328
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012343
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012318
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012333
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012318
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012333
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012308
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012308
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
608 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012305
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012319
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
604 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012303
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
602 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
548 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
548 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
538 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012229
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012243
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
528 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012218
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
518 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012218
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
518 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 012217
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
616 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST OF
CA SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OR SUN NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN OR. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITH
A WAVE MOVING ONSHORE MON...PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/09Z SREF
MEAN.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT WITH ITS BULLS EYES
OVER WESTERN OR 12-21Z MON. A PAIR OF WAVES IMPACT THE REST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ONE LEAD WAVE
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE 12Z
NAM DEVELOPED A STRONGER CIRCULATION AFTER PRODUCING CONVECTION IN
WY MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE EXTENDING TO WESTERN SD...SO ITS AMOUNTS
APPEARED TO BE OVERDONE WITH POSSIBLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.
CONSEQUENTLY AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO BE LOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB JET HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE WPC QPF USED
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET.  12Z NAM MI
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH AS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS FAVORED BY
THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH TIME.
CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
ENHANCEMENTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN.  THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND BEYOND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BUT MOST CONDITIONS PERSIST
SFC-700 MB AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS IN THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND VT GREEN MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS NE AND THEN NORTHERN MO ON
DAY 3.
THE TRICK HERE IS THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND WHERE ANY
CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON DAY 2...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSES OUT OF UT ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN
NM. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE UT WASATCH AND THE RANGES OF CO DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST NM AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEADING INTO OK/KS/MO.  THE DIFFER ON TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
700-500 MB WAVE SO A BLEND OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GFS/12Z NAM QPF WAS USED.

...SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

THE MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS BANDS OF 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSIST OF
WEST CENTRAL FL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE
INCLUDED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.
THE AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS ON
DAY 3 AND PRESSURES RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO BOTH SEA BREEZES PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
INTERIOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM SEA BREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS.

THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET LOOK OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
GA/SC/NC. THE 00-12Z UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP
CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH INDUCES HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z-12Z GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED IN THIS REGION...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO USED
IN THE FL PENINSULA DAY 3.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/TERRY/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530118
      529108 528105 525106 524118 522129 519132 516131 510136
      508143 507151 508154 509159 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526198 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 487754 469754 458760 446774 429795 427798 424802
      418804 411807 408810 407816 407824 410835 411841 412846
      412854 411859 409864 406869 400878 387896 385900 385906
      387909 394910 399917 399925 397932 394941 393945 392941
      390936 389927 387921 383917 381912 376903 369896 365892
      363896 366901 365907 366911 368916 370920 374925 377931
      384938 389946 392951 392958 393973 391979 387983 386990
      386997 387004 388006 394007 399003 403998 405993 407987
      412989 415992 420992 424992 428990 434985 449971 467942
      469955 473966 477976 480987 480992 482994 486998 490002
      494003 498001 499996 500990 501980 501962 499956 499948
      498935 497930 496921 495914 494909 494903 498889 501876
      504866 510842 512838 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 491825 490817 488814 486811 485803 484789 481774 480787
      479799 478810 476822 475828 477831 480835 484835 489833
      490828 491825
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439714 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739
      447741 451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439215 439211 433205 428206 423208 421208 419206
      416201 413195 409190 407186 408181 409172 411157 404145
      402144 395144 392141 390137 389134 392131 398127 402123
      409115 410106 410101 409098 408095 406096 403102 401099
      400096 401092 405077 407071 410066 411055 411049 409047
      408044 410041 414037 421028 421023 420019 417017 410015
      405017 397023 391032 384034 380030 379021 377012 376009
      373006 368003 366993 367988 362984 354979 348977 341976
      337977 333982 331987 329990 329995 329003 331008 330011
      327012 317018 313020 308022 302025 301027 300032 298038
      299045 301050 303053 309050 311043 314038 319036 324037
      326036 332030 340032 341034 341039 343045 339049 333050
      329051 328053 325057 329061 334063 337065 337067 326070
      320071 316073 313076 309076 301073 297072 296070 292064
      287064 281065 276066 269063 268062 265063 265067 266072
      269075 270084 272088 275092 280097 284102 290106 295111
      300114 311121 316123 319124 322123 326112 333114 336118
      338124 342129 346132 349131 351129 354128 356125 358122
      359116 361108 363107 363112 364118 362125 364126 364131
      361134 357144 356150 359156 361161 364165 367170 368173
      367177 364178 362181 363185 366188 372192 376196 379200
      384204 389207 394212 403220 405226 405231 409235 412237
      418237 422230 426230 428228 432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343686 342690 335703 331712 328718 320730
      315740 311747 304761 285785 279792 272793 265795 260796
      256798 249802 246804 245808 247815 252818 257817 261819
      268824 270827 269832 268840 268851 269854 270861 269880
      268885 269892 269898 268902 266922 264925 264930 261939
      258946 258958 256962 257968 263964 270962 274959 275955
      281940 284932 292933 298933 301931 301924 303920 303908
      303903 304900 308883 309865 312854 313849 316846 317850
      319852 323850 326847 327844 328839 329830 330825 332823
      336821 339817 351783 353775 354769 356764 357756 359748
      362744 363738 366729 367721 368710 370691 371681 372672
      370666 365662
 0.25 490932 490926 490919 488911 486904 482899 478886 476879
      473873 473867 473860 470859 470855 471840 469834 463832
      462827 463819 466811 465803 464797 461791 456788 452791
      446800 432841 433846 432850 430858 428864 430873 429878
      427886 418893 413897 411900 411904 411912 413920 405925
      404932 404936 405940 409946 411948 415948 418945 418935
      419930 421931 423937 426937 429936 433932 438926 439936
      441942 444949 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442920
      442915 443913 449909 455908 457902 456896 457888 460886
      462891 465898 467904 469907 472907 475912 477919 482932
      484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 372057 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064
      359071 362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089
      382088 384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357714 356711 353709 347719 330735 321746
      314755 302775 295787 293792 288797 283798 275800 269799
      263800 255802 252807 255811 262811 268814 273814 279812
      286812 290811 288814 283818 278820 276822 275825 272839
      272844 274851 278883 280892 279896 278899 277905 277911
      279914 283915 286910 288905 289898 290890 292883 297872
      302859 306846 307840 310833 314823 318816 322816 324818
      327817 326814 325814 325810 327804 332794 343768 348757
      352746 356734 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321100 318095 316092 311090 307092 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      375080 377080 379078
 0.50 352729 349725 345725 338731 326745 320753 315760 306776
      301785 298789 297794 302804 306812 310814 313811 320804
      325796 329787 337771 342762 345752 351733 352729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 308827 308822 306821 300822 295821 288821 283823 280827
      276836 275842 276846 277854 279859 281864 284869 288871
      291868 297860 301851 304840 305834 307829 308827
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306788 308790 310795 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 290824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 502317 501314 503312 504310 503308 500309 498309 495307
      494304 493301 493298 495296 497296 500297 503298 504301
      506305 506306 514286 512284 511280 512277 511274
      506271 505266 506263 507261 507258 506254 504248 506234
      506225 507214 511210 513205 518202 520201 522198 525176
      520163 509157 505155 503151 500147 498143 497140 498137
      498126 497118 499111 500108 502105 507099 509098 513103
      515106 516103 517100 520099 525097 527105 531110 534111
      537108 549093 552094 552097 555103 557113 559110 559106
 0.01 502626 499627 497626 494630 487642 480649 473659 458680
      442700 427719 420728 413736 399757 393767 391773 388779
      377801 369824 366838 368843 368852 369862 369867 371869
      374874 376875 381875 385876 389879 387895 379919 378925
      379931 385943 382951 381958 380966 380970 384971 389968
      391966 394968 397982 401994 403000 406005 409010 411012
      415014 420016 426016 429016 430013 430005 431997 431987
      427975 421963 417952 414946 413943 414940 419929 421921
      424914 438894 451873 460850 462834 464829 467832 472836
      474838 476842 479848 483854 487853 492850 500841 501850
      502859 505874 509886 505891 503899 503903 502907 504911
      504915 505923 509931 510937 512942 514942 518944 522947
      526947 531947 533947 535949 539949 541947 544944 544941
      547934 547930 549926 548904 548898 549898 551894 551889
      552884 552878 547870 546866 545860 544851 543842 543833
      541825 540815 532788 531767 532756 531745 532741 532735
      533728 534718 533706
 0.01 464224 458212 451208 446203 428191 421190 420187 421186
      423184 425174 424166 425160 422158 422152 424146 426138
      430130 431128 435127 434133 433143 434152 437158 442162
      444162 445164 448170 447175 449179 451182 455184 460179
      463178 461174 456161 455144 454135 455125 457120 457116
      458105 457098 454092 442088 438087 435084 438076 441070
      442063 442052 441048 439046 433042 430038 428035 428030
      426027 421024 420022 416021 407021 402018 399014 390002
      387997 382992 376990 369989 363985 356983 353982 349982
      341981 332982 328986 326988 325992 324995 323999 318009
      314017 313024 310030 306031 304029 301029 300033 295037
      293038 294043 290048 285053 282057 255062 249063 250070
      252083 254090 254092 257094 269100 279107 286110 296113
      303115 307111 312116 316121 319125 322128 325126 325115
      328113 332112 338115 342127 344130 347132 351128 348122
      351119 355120 355115 352109 348103 344092 342076 345077
      347083 355094 364104 367112 368120 369136 371143 376148
      382150 380158 380165 380169 380174 382180 385186 389191
      393194 401197 404198 407196 413192 418187 420190 418194
      417199 415201 409203 404205 400209 401216 403223 404226
      404231 405236 407239 414243 420245 428246 440244 450243
      455241 459237 464224
 0.01 402680 401676 401671 400664 397660 395659 393661 390663
      387667 381674 378677 374678 367679 361681 355688 338717
      329731 322737 317746 308760 297771 294774 289775 279778
      273776 268777 257778 253781 248782 241787 234801 234802
      237805 243811 246819 250822 252824 252828 253836 255838
      259836 262838 263843 264850 264869 264876 263879 263892
      264899 265903 265909 266913 269921 269928 267932 265943
      264946 267948 274954 276955 277958 279962 281960 285960
      292954 295952 296948 299939 307923 308912 309899 313879
      314875 314869 317860 319852 323843 331826 341812 346805
      349797 353788 356779 364762 396698 402680
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248995 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 522699 522688 519679 517673 513667 509665 503663 498662
      491664 481671 476675 472680 463690 460695 458698 455700
      448710 441720 435731 427741 412762 409768 407774 404781
      401786 398792 394797 392802 391810 389816 392822 394823
      398824 402823 403832 406840 405846 406854 407862 407871
      407881 408889 410894 412896 416895 421891 424886 431874
      436861 441849 445836 449822 455808 458803 462798 470790
      479780 488770 496761 503751 510741 516727 519712 521705
      522699
 0.25 435220 437216 436211 435208 433205 431204 428203 426204
      424206 422208 421212 420216 420219 422222 425224 428224
      431224 434222 435220
 0.25 429108 419096 419092 420087 422077 421066 425064 426059
      424055 419054 414052 411051 404047 402044 398042 393043
      388041 380038 375033 371026 370016 369010 367006 362000
      355997 352995 348995 341000 337007 337013 338018 341025
      346031 352036 357042 367054 376068 381085 385093 390098
      391108 396115 401121 404124 408125 416123 420116 426112
      429108
 0.25 421989 422986 422982 419978 417975 414971 411968 408966
      405966 405973 406977 408982 410986 412989 417991 421989
 0.25 373722 373717 372713 365712 359715 354717 335732 331737
      327741 321750 309770 303779 295787 289796 283799 275799
      262799 255800 252804 251807 253812 256815 266820 269824
      268831 268838 269846 271860 276874 279903 284914 288918
      291920 293917 295911 296903 297897 296892 296880 296872
      297866 300859 302854 306843 307835 309830 318823 332806
      339796 345785 350775 355765 366742 370732 373722
 0.25 333058 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057 328058 330058
      332058 333058
 0.25 298092 298086 296082 289078 280075 270075 263072 260072
      258075 263081 271085 278090 285094 291095 296094 298092
 0.50 507701 507692 506690 503691 497696 481696 482685 477686
      474689 467697 465701 463708 461712 456712 452719 442740
      429753 426757 424763 423777 424783 423790 419799 415810
      414815 414823 416829 416837 418843 418849 419862 421867
      424866 427861 428855 431845 435841 437837 440825 444815
      447804 460788 465779 470771 476763 479759 485756 491748
      494738 497726 499721 502715 505708 507701
 0.50 413078 413073 411068 408065 405063 402063 399067 398074
      399078 402082 405084 409083 413080 413078
 0.50 409108 410105 410103 410101 410098 409096 408095 406094
      405095 404097 404098 404100 403102 403104 404107 405109
      407109 409108 409108
 0.50 396057 396055 395054 393054 392055 392057 393058 395058
      396057
 0.50 386056 388054 386052 385049 383048 381048 380049 379050
      379051 379052 381053 383054 384055 386056 386056
 0.50 368725 368721 366719 364717 361718 351724 343731 335740
      328748 322758 310778 304788 301801 300807 299814 303818
      310818 315815 319812 325803 333794 340784 346775 351764
      357754 362742 368725
 0.50 365021 364016 361012 359009 354007 351006 348009 348015
      349020 351024 354027 359028 363025 365022 365021
 0.50 299836 299828 296821 294817 290813 279809 275805 273810
      275812 278813 278817 273828 271834 272843 275848 278853
      283856 288856 292853 296847 298843 299836
 0.50 266808 266806 265806 264804 263804 261804 259804 258804
      256805 255806 254808 255810 256811 258811 258812 260812
      262812 264811 265810 265809 266808
 1.00 461755 462750 461746 458746 457747 455749 453752 452755
      451758 450763 452766 455764 457763 459761 461758 461755
 1.00 358732 356730 353732 349736 342743 337751 332760 327768
      325774 325778 327779 331778 335774 342766 346758 352749
      355739 358732
 1.00 293837 294830 292825 290822 287820 283821 280824 277828
      275832 275836 277840 279843 283845 288843 291841 293837
      293837
 1.50 290835 291830 290826 288824 285824 282825 280827 278830
      278832 277836 279838 281840 284840 286839 289837 290835
 2.00 288833 288831 288829 287828 286827 285826 283827 282829
      281829 280831 280832 280834 280835 281836 282836 284836
      286835 288833 288833

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 525257 521259 519260 516259 510257 507256 505253 503247
      500243 501238 503236 506234 512231 515229 517227 520229
      525230 527236 530240 534226 526226 521223 520219 518211
      512205 507204 505201 501196 498195 494197 492192 491188
      486181 476177 473175 470175 465181 444206 434222 430228
      426232 423236 420235 415230 417226 419219 420215 421208
      419205 416203 415191 415188 413184 406182 402179 397178
      393170 393167 391166 388166 390155 399150 403142 408136
      412129 413122 410118 405112 406099 406092 403091 400092
      397092 394090 388090 384088 381084 379081 378071 373066
      373062 372057 371052 367050 360046 355040 339035 336036
      331036 321035 321025 322013 326006 332001 338994 340991
      341985 340966 339957 344952 350947 355940 357936 356931
      356919 357907 358902 358894 357872 358867 358862 357855
      356851 354837 354826 356816 356806 357801 357796 353786
      352782 349779 344786 338799 325809 319815 312820 311822
      311825 312831 313834 314839 312843 313850 313861 313872
      313882 313894 315899 315905 316911 318915 321923 319930
      316938 301946 289951 286949 282950 278950 277947 274939
      271930 268923 266914 262895 257875 252859 249851 248846
      246842 241825 240814 240805 240799 243798 249794 279777
      285772 289769 294767 298763 303757 315745 323733 334722
      345710 357698 367685 394668 429653 434651 438648 443640
      447633 453628 468626 477627 484628 487630 491627 495622
      499619
 0.01 522673 519673 518678 520681 522686 521690 520697 523704
      523708 525711 526718 528723 528727 530731 531737 531741
      533744 535761 533776 530790 530797 530801 531804 532819
      533824 534829 536834 541847 544861 546867 546874 546893
      547901 545908 543912 540916 536917 531918 526918 522914
      515908 508898 503890 495886 486881 483879 480876 478875
      479872 476870 474863 474857 476843 477836 472833 465829
      463827 462831 463839 467867 469873 470881 471885 466886
      462886 460888 456889 452878 441861 436851 431842 428838
      426832 424827 422819 415796 412800 409805 404815 399824
      394833 390843 388846 389849 390856 393868 398877 410896
      417915 422926 424933 426938 433959 441982 447991 453998
      459007 462011 465014 470018 473019 474021 482025 492030
      497031 501033 512035 519039 538048 543057 545060 546067
      549081 550088 550098 551117 551123 553127 556130
 0.01 480919 480917 480914 480912 479912 477912 477915 477917
      479918 480919 480919
 0.01 472892 471890 470890 468890 466893 465895 465898 465900
      465903 467905 468903 470900 470898 472895 472892
 0.01 433135 431133 429131 428132 429134 429135 431137 433135
      433135
 0.01 345059 342054 340051 336050 330048 326043 308025 302026
      298031 295037 294046 295053 297056 295058 289061 282063
      250059 244057 242059 244062 252071 261079 265084 269088
      274092 280094 288096 294096 300093 304089 312078 315072
      316063 322060 328062 334063 340063 345059
 0.01 322095 320093 317088 315086 312086 309090 307094 305098
      306102 308106 311108 316107 318103 320099 322095
 0.01 246788 245788 244787 243786 241786 239786 237787 237788
      236790 236791 235792 236794 238794 240795 242795 244794
      245793 245791 245789 246788
 0.25 550163 547164 543160 540155 539148 536137 532131 529127
      526128 524130 524135 525139 526153 525158 524159 519157
      514147 512142 510136 510131 509128 505127 499125 494125
      489135 488139 488142 491146 495150 496156 495164 491166
      490170 492171 494172 497174 499178 501180 505180 510182
      515179 516173 519172 523176 526181 533188 538191 541195
      542199
 0.25 504629 499632 496635 493639 487640 480639 475638 470639
      466644 462643 457643 453643 450645 448651 449665 444674
      443679 443686 444689 443692 440696 433703 430707 426709
      421708 418704 413704 408706 404709 402713 400716 399720
      402723 408733 408737 408743 405753 401763 398773 399778
      404780 408778 411775 425761 436761 442755 444751 445746
      447741 452738 459734 468736 473736 477734 481730 486722
      491713 495703 499693 504670 508656 508647 509641
 0.25 471148 472142 472137 469130 462116 455078 455072 457066
      457060 456049 454039 451031 448024 445017 443007 441999
      438991 432976 427960 421945 414929 407915 399901 395897
      388893 384894 381897 379904 380915 379927 376935 373941
      370949 366954 361961 358967 354974 353979 351997 350008
      352016 355019 359020 366022 379029 383030 386029 394028
      397026 400028 402031 407033 412037 416043 421048 425054
      428061 429066 427069 422074 418075 416078 417082 420084
      425086 431085 433086 433091 432095 432100 433110 439126
      441144 445162 447165 451168 456169 461165 463160 465157
      469152 471148
 0.25 399797 398793 396792 393794 391795 390797 388799 387802
      386806 389808 392805 394803 395802 397800 399797
 0.25 383745 383741 382738 378735 375722 377710 367712 351726
      338741 335744 332749 329759 319776 317782 316785 321784
      326781 331779 335776 342768 357755 364749 366747 368748
      372752 375753 379752 383745
 0.25 383823 382817 380812 375809 371810 368815 367820 364833
      364839 364847 365853 367860 373869 377869 379864 380858
      379850 378845 379839 380832 382827 383823
 0.25 310788 309788 307788 305788 304788 302788 300788 298789
      297790 297791 297792 297793 297794 299795 301795 303795
      304794 305793 306792 307791 308790 309788 310788
 0.25 302076 300074 296072 287072 278071 269069 265069 263072
      268077 274081 279084 286085 294083 299080 302076
 0.25 299834 299828 298823 295815 283806 275803 267803 262803
      257805 254807 255811 260816 268818 276819 280821 280823
      275831 273838 273844 274850 277857 281863 288864 290860
      294858 296854 296850 299834
 0.25 299912 300904 300897 299882 298876 295872 291869 286872
      284876 282881 281894 282908 283913 286918 290927 294931
      296929 298923 298916 299912
 0.50 503639 502639 501640 500642 499643 500645 500646 500645
      502644 503642 503641 503639
 0.50 495658 494650 492646 489644 487646 484649 481655 481660
      483664 485669 490667 493664 495660 495658
 0.50 481693 481688 477686 470687 464691 458697 448707 438717
      429730 427738 426741 429744 435740 440735 451724 457720
      464716 470711 474706 481693
 0.50 450063 449057 447053 446046 447039 443031 439023 437012
      435000 428981 421961 414942 411934 407926 401917 400915
      397914 395915 393919 392924 392938 391942 388945 382946
      378947 375950 373954 370964 361978 360985 360990 364999
      367002 369006 374012 380014 384013 387011 390007 394999
      397995 400995 408012 411023 413027 416030 425032 429034
      431039 434048 436052 439055 445060 448064 450063
 0.50 368723 368720 366720 363722 359728 354734 352736 350740
      347747 344753 344757 346756 352751 357745 359738 363732
      367726 368723
 0.50 294834 293830 293828 291826 287825 283827 282829 281831
      280834 280838 281840 283843 285844 287843 290842 292841
      293837 294834
 1.00 379988 379986 379983 378982 377981 375983 375985 375986
      376988 378989 379988

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 012217
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
616 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST OF
CA SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OR SUN NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN OR. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITH
A WAVE MOVING ONSHORE MON...PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/09Z SREF
MEAN.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT WITH ITS BULLS EYES
OVER WESTERN OR 12-21Z MON. A PAIR OF WAVES IMPACT THE REST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ONE LEAD WAVE
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE 12Z
NAM DEVELOPED A STRONGER CIRCULATION AFTER PRODUCING CONVECTION IN
WY MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE EXTENDING TO WESTERN SD...SO ITS AMOUNTS
APPEARED TO BE OVERDONE WITH POSSIBLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.
CONSEQUENTLY AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO BE LOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB JET HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE WPC QPF USED
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET.  12Z NAM MI
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH AS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS FAVORED BY
THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH TIME.
CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
ENHANCEMENTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN.  THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND BEYOND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BUT MOST CONDITIONS PERSIST
SFC-700 MB AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS IN THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND VT GREEN MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS NE AND THEN NORTHERN MO ON
DAY 3.
THE TRICK HERE IS THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND WHERE ANY
CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON DAY 2...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSES OUT OF UT ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN
NM. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE UT WASATCH AND THE RANGES OF CO DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST NM AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEADING INTO OK/KS/MO.  THE DIFFER ON TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
700-500 MB WAVE SO A BLEND OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GFS/12Z NAM QPF WAS USED.

...SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

THE MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS BANDS OF 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSIST OF
WEST CENTRAL FL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE
INCLUDED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.
THE AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS ON
DAY 3 AND PRESSURES RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO BOTH SEA BREEZES PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
INTERIOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM SEA BREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS.

THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET LOOK OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
GA/SC/NC. THE 00-12Z UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP
CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH INDUCES HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z-12Z GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED IN THIS REGION...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO USED
IN THE FL PENINSULA DAY 3.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/TERRY/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530118
      529108 528105 525106 524118 522129 519132 516131 510136
      508143 507151 508154 509159 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526198 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 487754 469754 458760 446774 429795 427798 424802
      418804 411807 408810 407816 407824 410835 411841 412846
      412854 411859 409864 406869 400878 387896 385900 385906
      387909 394910 399917 399925 397932 394941 393945 392941
      390936 389927 387921 383917 381912 376903 369896 365892
      363896 366901 365907 366911 368916 370920 374925 377931
      384938 389946 392951 392958 393973 391979 387983 386990
      386997 387004 388006 394007 399003 403998 405993 407987
      412989 415992 420992 424992 428990 434985 449971 467942
      469955 473966 477976 480987 480992 482994 486998 490002
      494003 498001 499996 500990 501980 501962 499956 499948
      498935 497930 496921 495914 494909 494903 498889 501876
      504866 510842 512838 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 491825 490817 488814 486811 485803 484789 481774 480787
      479799 478810 476822 475828 477831 480835 484835 489833
      490828 491825
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439714 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739
      447741 451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439215 439211 433205 428206 423208 421208 419206
      416201 413195 409190 407186 408181 409172 411157 404145
      402144 395144 392141 390137 389134 392131 398127 402123
      409115 410106 410101 409098 408095 406096 403102 401099
      400096 401092 405077 407071 410066 411055 411049 409047
      408044 410041 414037 421028 421023 420019 417017 410015
      405017 397023 391032 384034 380030 379021 377012 376009
      373006 368003 366993 367988 362984 354979 348977 341976
      337977 333982 331987 329990 329995 329003 331008 330011
      327012 317018 313020 308022 302025 301027 300032 298038
      299045 301050 303053 309050 311043 314038 319036 324037
      326036 332030 340032 341034 341039 343045 339049 333050
      329051 328053 325057 329061 334063 337065 337067 326070
      320071 316073 313076 309076 301073 297072 296070 292064
      287064 281065 276066 269063 268062 265063 265067 266072
      269075 270084 272088 275092 280097 284102 290106 295111
      300114 311121 316123 319124 322123 326112 333114 336118
      338124 342129 346132 349131 351129 354128 356125 358122
      359116 361108 363107 363112 364118 362125 364126 364131
      361134 357144 356150 359156 361161 364165 367170 368173
      367177 364178 362181 363185 366188 372192 376196 379200
      384204 389207 394212 403220 405226 405231 409235 412237
      418237 422230 426230 428228 432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343686 342690 335703 331712 328718 320730
      315740 311747 304761 285785 279792 272793 265795 260796
      256798 249802 246804 245808 247815 252818 257817 261819
      268824 270827 269832 268840 268851 269854 270861 269880
      268885 269892 269898 268902 266922 264925 264930 261939
      258946 258958 256962 257968 263964 270962 274959 275955
      281940 284932 292933 298933 301931 301924 303920 303908
      303903 304900 308883 309865 312854 313849 316846 317850
      319852 323850 326847 327844 328839 329830 330825 332823
      336821 339817 351783 353775 354769 356764 357756 359748
      362744 363738 366729 367721 368710 370691 371681 372672
      370666 365662
 0.25 490932 490926 490919 488911 486904 482899 478886 476879
      473873 473867 473860 470859 470855 471840 469834 463832
      462827 463819 466811 465803 464797 461791 456788 452791
      446800 432841 433846 432850 430858 428864 430873 429878
      427886 418893 413897 411900 411904 411912 413920 405925
      404932 404936 405940 409946 411948 415948 418945 418935
      419930 421931 423937 426937 429936 433932 438926 439936
      441942 444949 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442920
      442915 443913 449909 455908 457902 456896 457888 460886
      462891 465898 467904 469907 472907 475912 477919 482932
      484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 372057 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064
      359071 362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089
      382088 384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357714 356711 353709 347719 330735 321746
      314755 302775 295787 293792 288797 283798 275800 269799
      263800 255802 252807 255811 262811 268814 273814 279812
      286812 290811 288814 283818 278820 276822 275825 272839
      272844 274851 278883 280892 279896 278899 277905 277911
      279914 283915 286910 288905 289898 290890 292883 297872
      302859 306846 307840 310833 314823 318816 322816 324818
      327817 326814 325814 325810 327804 332794 343768 348757
      352746 356734 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321100 318095 316092 311090 307092 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      375080 377080 379078
 0.50 352729 349725 345725 338731 326745 320753 315760 306776
      301785 298789 297794 302804 306812 310814 313811 320804
      325796 329787 337771 342762 345752 351733 352729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 308827 308822 306821 300822 295821 288821 283823 280827
      276836 275842 276846 277854 279859 281864 284869 288871
      291868 297860 301851 304840 305834 307829 308827
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306788 308790 310795 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 290824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 502317 501314 503312 504310 503308 500309 498309 495307
      494304 493301 493298 495296 497296 500297 503298 504301
      506305 506306 514286 512284 511280 512277 511274
      506271 505266 506263 507261 507258 506254 504248 506234
      506225 507214 511210 513205 518202 520201 522198 525176
      520163 509157 505155 503151 500147 498143 497140 498137
      498126 497118 499111 500108 502105 507099 509098 513103
      515106 516103 517100 520099 525097 527105 531110 534111
      537108 549093 552094 552097 555103 557113 559110 559106
 0.01 502626 499627 497626 494630 487642 480649 473659 458680
      442700 427719 420728 413736 399757 393767 391773 388779
      377801 369824 366838 368843 368852 369862 369867 371869
      374874 376875 381875 385876 389879 387895 379919 378925
      379931 385943 382951 381958 380966 380970 384971 389968
      391966 394968 397982 401994 403000 406005 409010 411012
      415014 420016 426016 429016 430013 430005 431997 431987
      427975 421963 417952 414946 413943 414940 419929 421921
      424914 438894 451873 460850 462834 464829 467832 472836
      474838 476842 479848 483854 487853 492850 500841 501850
      502859 505874 509886 505891 503899 503903 502907 504911
      504915 505923 509931 510937 512942 514942 518944 522947
      526947 531947 533947 535949 539949 541947 544944 544941
      547934 547930 549926 548904 548898 549898 551894 551889
      552884 552878 547870 546866 545860 544851 543842 543833
      541825 540815 532788 531767 532756 531745 532741 532735
      533728 534718 533706
 0.01 464224 458212 451208 446203 428191 421190 420187 421186
      423184 425174 424166 425160 422158 422152 424146 426138
      430130 431128 435127 434133 433143 434152 437158 442162
      444162 445164 448170 447175 449179 451182 455184 460179
      463178 461174 456161 455144 454135 455125 457120 457116
      458105 457098 454092 442088 438087 435084 438076 441070
      442063 442052 441048 439046 433042 430038 428035 428030
      426027 421024 420022 416021 407021 402018 399014 390002
      387997 382992 376990 369989 363985 356983 353982 349982
      341981 332982 328986 326988 325992 324995 323999 318009
      314017 313024 310030 306031 304029 301029 300033 295037
      293038 294043 290048 285053 282057 255062 249063 250070
      252083 254090 254092 257094 269100 279107 286110 296113
      303115 307111 312116 316121 319125 322128 325126 325115
      328113 332112 338115 342127 344130 347132 351128 348122
      351119 355120 355115 352109 348103 344092 342076 345077
      347083 355094 364104 367112 368120 369136 371143 376148
      382150 380158 380165 380169 380174 382180 385186 389191
      393194 401197 404198 407196 413192 418187 420190 418194
      417199 415201 409203 404205 400209 401216 403223 404226
      404231 405236 407239 414243 420245 428246 440244 450243
      455241 459237 464224
 0.01 402680 401676 401671 400664 397660 395659 393661 390663
      387667 381674 378677 374678 367679 361681 355688 338717
      329731 322737 317746 308760 297771 294774 289775 279778
      273776 268777 257778 253781 248782 241787 234801 234802
      237805 243811 246819 250822 252824 252828 253836 255838
      259836 262838 263843 264850 264869 264876 263879 263892
      264899 265903 265909 266913 269921 269928 267932 265943
      264946 267948 274954 276955 277958 279962 281960 285960
      292954 295952 296948 299939 307923 308912 309899 313879
      314875 314869 317860 319852 323843 331826 341812 346805
      349797 353788 356779 364762 396698 402680
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248995 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 522699 522688 519679 517673 513667 509665 503663 498662
      491664 481671 476675 472680 463690 460695 458698 455700
      448710 441720 435731 427741 412762 409768 407774 404781
      401786 398792 394797 392802 391810 389816 392822 394823
      398824 402823 403832 406840 405846 406854 407862 407871
      407881 408889 410894 412896 416895 421891 424886 431874
      436861 441849 445836 449822 455808 458803 462798 470790
      479780 488770 496761 503751 510741 516727 519712 521705
      522699
 0.25 435220 437216 436211 435208 433205 431204 428203 426204
      424206 422208 421212 420216 420219 422222 425224 428224
      431224 434222 435220
 0.25 429108 419096 419092 420087 422077 421066 425064 426059
      424055 419054 414052 411051 404047 402044 398042 393043
      388041 380038 375033 371026 370016 369010 367006 362000
      355997 352995 348995 341000 337007 337013 338018 341025
      346031 352036 357042 367054 376068 381085 385093 390098
      391108 396115 401121 404124 408125 416123 420116 426112
      429108
 0.25 421989 422986 422982 419978 417975 414971 411968 408966
      405966 405973 406977 408982 410986 412989 417991 421989
 0.25 373722 373717 372713 365712 359715 354717 335732 331737
      327741 321750 309770 303779 295787 289796 283799 275799
      262799 255800 252804 251807 253812 256815 266820 269824
      268831 268838 269846 271860 276874 279903 284914 288918
      291920 293917 295911 296903 297897 296892 296880 296872
      297866 300859 302854 306843 307835 309830 318823 332806
      339796 345785 350775 355765 366742 370732 373722
 0.25 333058 332055 330055 329054 327055 327057 328058 330058
      332058 333058
 0.25 298092 298086 296082 289078 280075 270075 263072 260072
      258075 263081 271085 278090 285094 291095 296094 298092
 0.50 507701 507692 506690 503691 497696 481696 482685 477686
      474689 467697 465701 463708 461712 456712 452719 442740
      429753 426757 424763 423777 424783 423790 419799 415810
      414815 414823 416829 416837 418843 418849 419862 421867
      424866 427861 428855 431845 435841 437837 440825 444815
      447804 460788 465779 470771 476763 479759 485756 491748
      494738 497726 499721 502715 505708 507701
 0.50 413078 413073 411068 408065 405063 402063 399067 398074
      399078 402082 405084 409083 413080 413078
 0.50 409108 410105 410103 410101 410098 409096 408095 406094
      405095 404097 404098 404100 403102 403104 404107 405109
      407109 409108 409108
 0.50 396057 396055 395054 393054 392055 392057 393058 395058
      396057
 0.50 386056 388054 386052 385049 383048 381048 380049 379050
      379051 379052 381053 383054 384055 386056 386056
 0.50 368725 368721 366719 364717 361718 351724 343731 335740
      328748 322758 310778 304788 301801 300807 299814 303818
      310818 315815 319812 325803 333794 340784 346775 351764
      357754 362742 368725
 0.50 365021 364016 361012 359009 354007 351006 348009 348015
      349020 351024 354027 359028 363025 365022 365021
 0.50 299836 299828 296821 294817 290813 279809 275805 273810
      275812 278813 278817 273828 271834 272843 275848 278853
      283856 288856 292853 296847 298843 299836
 0.50 266808 266806 265806 264804 263804 261804 259804 258804
      256805 255806 254808 255810 256811 258811 258812 260812
      262812 264811 265810 265809 266808
 1.00 461755 462750 461746 458746 457747 455749 453752 452755
      451758 450763 452766 455764 457763 459761 461758 461755
 1.00 358732 356730 353732 349736 342743 337751 332760 327768
      325774 325778 327779 331778 335774 342766 346758 352749
      355739 358732
 1.00 293837 294830 292825 290822 287820 283821 280824 277828
      275832 275836 277840 279843 283845 288843 291841 293837
      293837
 1.50 290835 291830 290826 288824 285824 282825 280827 278830
      278832 277836 279838 281840 284840 286839 289837 290835
 2.00 288833 288831 288829 287828 286827 285826 283827 282829
      281829 280831 280832 280834 280835 281836 282836 284836
      286835 288833 288833

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 525257 521259 519260 516259 510257 507256 505253 503247
      500243 501238 503236 506234 512231 515229 517227 520229
      525230 527236 530240 534226 526226 521223 520219 518211
      512205 507204 505201 501196 498195 494197 492192 491188
      486181 476177 473175 470175 465181 444206 434222 430228
      426232 423236 420235 415230 417226 419219 420215 421208
      419205 416203 415191 415188 413184 406182 402179 397178
      393170 393167 391166 388166 390155 399150 403142 408136
      412129 413122 410118 405112 406099 406092 403091 400092
      397092 394090 388090 384088 381084 379081 378071 373066
      373062 372057 371052 367050 360046 355040 339035 336036
      331036 321035 321025 322013 326006 332001 338994 340991
      341985 340966 339957 344952 350947 355940 357936 356931
      356919 357907 358902 358894 357872 358867 358862 357855
      356851 354837 354826 356816 356806 357801 357796 353786
      352782 349779 344786 338799 325809 319815 312820 311822
      311825 312831 313834 314839 312843 313850 313861 313872
      313882 313894 315899 315905 316911 318915 321923 319930
      316938 301946 289951 286949 282950 278950 277947 274939
      271930 268923 266914 262895 257875 252859 249851 248846
      246842 241825 240814 240805 240799 243798 249794 279777
      285772 289769 294767 298763 303757 315745 323733 334722
      345710 357698 367685 394668 429653 434651 438648 443640
      447633 453628 468626 477627 484628 487630 491627 495622
      499619
 0.01 522673 519673 518678 520681 522686 521690 520697 523704
      523708 525711 526718 528723 528727 530731 531737 531741
      533744 535761 533776 530790 530797 530801 531804 532819
      533824 534829 536834 541847 544861 546867 546874 546893
      547901 545908 543912 540916 536917 531918 526918 522914
      515908 508898 503890 495886 486881 483879 480876 478875
      479872 476870 474863 474857 476843 477836 472833 465829
      463827 462831 463839 467867 469873 470881 471885 466886
      462886 460888 456889 452878 441861 436851 431842 428838
      426832 424827 422819 415796 412800 409805 404815 399824
      394833 390843 388846 389849 390856 393868 398877 410896
      417915 422926 424933 426938 433959 441982 447991 453998
      459007 462011 465014 470018 473019 474021 482025 492030
      497031 501033 512035 519039 538048 543057 545060 546067
      549081 550088 550098 551117 551123 553127 556130
 0.01 480919 480917 480914 480912 479912 477912 477915 477917
      479918 480919 480919
 0.01 472892 471890 470890 468890 466893 465895 465898 465900
      465903 467905 468903 470900 470898 472895 472892
 0.01 433135 431133 429131 428132 429134 429135 431137 433135
      433135
 0.01 345059 342054 340051 336050 330048 326043 308025 302026
      298031 295037 294046 295053 297056 295058 289061 282063
      250059 244057 242059 244062 252071 261079 265084 269088
      274092 280094 288096 294096 300093 304089 312078 315072
      316063 322060 328062 334063 340063 345059
 0.01 322095 320093 317088 315086 312086 309090 307094 305098
      306102 308106 311108 316107 318103 320099 322095
 0.01 246788 245788 244787 243786 241786 239786 237787 237788
      236790 236791 235792 236794 238794 240795 242795 244794
      245793 245791 245789 246788
 0.25 550163 547164 543160 540155 539148 536137 532131 529127
      526128 524130 524135 525139 526153 525158 524159 519157
      514147 512142 510136 510131 509128 505127 499125 494125
      489135 488139 488142 491146 495150 496156 495164 491166
      490170 492171 494172 497174 499178 501180 505180 510182
      515179 516173 519172 523176 526181 533188 538191 541195
      542199
 0.25 504629 499632 496635 493639 487640 480639 475638 470639
      466644 462643 457643 453643 450645 448651 449665 444674
      443679 443686 444689 443692 440696 433703 430707 426709
      421708 418704 413704 408706 404709 402713 400716 399720
      402723 408733 408737 408743 405753 401763 398773 399778
      404780 408778 411775 425761 436761 442755 444751 445746
      447741 452738 459734 468736 473736 477734 481730 486722
      491713 495703 499693 504670 508656 508647 509641
 0.25 471148 472142 472137 469130 462116 455078 455072 457066
      457060 456049 454039 451031 448024 445017 443007 441999
      438991 432976 427960 421945 414929 407915 399901 395897
      388893 384894 381897 379904 380915 379927 376935 373941
      370949 366954 361961 358967 354974 353979 351997 350008
      352016 355019 359020 366022 379029 383030 386029 394028
      397026 400028 402031 407033 412037 416043 421048 425054
      428061 429066 427069 422074 418075 416078 417082 420084
      425086 431085 433086 433091 432095 432100 433110 439126
      441144 445162 447165 451168 456169 461165 463160 465157
      469152 471148
 0.25 399797 398793 396792 393794 391795 390797 388799 387802
      386806 389808 392805 394803 395802 397800 399797
 0.25 383745 383741 382738 378735 375722 377710 367712 351726
      338741 335744 332749 329759 319776 317782 316785 321784
      326781 331779 335776 342768 357755 364749 366747 368748
      372752 375753 379752 383745
 0.25 383823 382817 380812 375809 371810 368815 367820 364833
      364839 364847 365853 367860 373869 377869 379864 380858
      379850 378845 379839 380832 382827 383823
 0.25 310788 309788 307788 305788 304788 302788 300788 298789
      297790 297791 297792 297793 297794 299795 301795 303795
      304794 305793 306792 307791 308790 309788 310788
 0.25 302076 300074 296072 287072 278071 269069 265069 263072
      268077 274081 279084 286085 294083 299080 302076
 0.25 299834 299828 298823 295815 283806 275803 267803 262803
      257805 254807 255811 260816 268818 276819 280821 280823
      275831 273838 273844 274850 277857 281863 288864 290860
      294858 296854 296850 299834
 0.25 299912 300904 300897 299882 298876 295872 291869 286872
      284876 282881 281894 282908 283913 286918 290927 294931
      296929 298923 298916 299912
 0.50 503639 502639 501640 500642 499643 500645 500646 500645
      502644 503642 503641 503639
 0.50 495658 494650 492646 489644 487646 484649 481655 481660
      483664 485669 490667 493664 495660 495658
 0.50 481693 481688 477686 470687 464691 458697 448707 438717
      429730 427738 426741 429744 435740 440735 451724 457720
      464716 470711 474706 481693
 0.50 450063 449057 447053 446046 447039 443031 439023 437012
      435000 428981 421961 414942 411934 407926 401917 400915
      397914 395915 393919 392924 392938 391942 388945 382946
      378947 375950 373954 370964 361978 360985 360990 364999
      367002 369006 374012 380014 384013 387011 390007 394999
      397995 400995 408012 411023 413027 416030 425032 429034
      431039 434048 436052 439055 445060 448064 450063
 0.50 368723 368720 366720 363722 359728 354734 352736 350740
      347747 344753 344757 346756 352751 357745 359738 363732
      367726 368723
 0.50 294834 293830 293828 291826 287825 283827 282829 281831
      280834 280838 281840 283843 285844 287843 290842 292841
      293837 294834
 1.00 379988 379986 379983 378982 377981 375983 375985 375986
      376988 378989 379988

$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 012208
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
508 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012223
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
508 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012204
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
504 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012219
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
504 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012203
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012217
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
502 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012148
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012203
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
448 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
438 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012128
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012143
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
428 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
418 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
418 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
404 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012102
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012102
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012038
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012038
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012018
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012004
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012019
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012002
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012017
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 012002
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012017
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 011953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST OF
CA SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OR SUN NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN OR. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITH
A WAVE MOVING ONSHORE MON...PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/09Z SREF
MEAN.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT WITH ITS BULLS EYES
OVER WESTERN OR 12-21Z MON. A PAIR OF WAVES IMPACT THE REST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ONE LEAD WAVE
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE 12Z
NAM DEVELOPED A STRONGER CIRCULATION AFTER PRODUCING CONVECTION IN
WY MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE EXTENDING TO WESTERN SD...SO ITS AMOUNTS
APPEARED TO BE OVERDONE WITH POSSIBLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.
CONSEQUENTLY AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO BE LOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB JET HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE WPC QPF USED
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET.  12Z NAM MI
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH AS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS FAVORED BY
THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH TIME.
CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
ENHANCEMENTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN.  THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND BEYOND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BUT MOST CONDITIONS PERSIST
SFC-700 MB AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS IN THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND VT GREEN MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS NE AND THEN NORTHERN MO ON
DAY 3.
THE TRICK HERE IS THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND WHERE ANY
CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON DAY 2...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSES OUT OF UT ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN
NM. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE UT WASATCH AND THE RANGES OF CO DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST NM AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEADING INTO OK/KS/MO.  THE DIFFER ON TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
700-500 MB WAVE SO A BLEND OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GFS/12Z NAM QPF WAS USED.

...SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

THE MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS BANDS OF 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSIST OF
WEST CENTRAL FL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE
INCLUDED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.
THE AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS ON
DAY 3 AND PRESSURES RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO BOTH SEA BREEZES PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
INTERIOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM SEA BREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS.

THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET LOOK OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
GA/SC/NC. THE 00-12Z UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP
CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH INDUCES HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z-12Z GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED IN THIS REGION...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO USED
IN THE FL PENINSULA DAY 3.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530119
      529108 528105 525105 524118 523123 522129 520132 516131
      510136 508143 507150 508154 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526197 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 520792 519784 515780 512777 508773 504771 496767
      493766 488767 485770 484772 482770 482763 482756 481747
      478742 474740 470743 466745 462750 450766 427798 423803
      419804 413806 410807 409809 407814 407822 408829 410835
      411842 412847 412852 412856 410861 405870 400878 388895
      385899 385906 388909 394910 399919 399927 397932 394941
      393945 392941 390936 389927 387922 382913 376904 373900
      369896 367893 364893 363896 365900 366909 368916 370920
      374925 377931 383938 389947 392950 392958 392974 391979
      388983 386988 386997 386003 388006 392007 394006 399003
      402999 405994 406988 408987 411989 415991 420992 424992
      428990 434985 442978 449971 456962 459958 461952 463946
      463938 466933 467941 468953 472965 477975 480987 480992
      482994 485998 489002 493003 497002 499996 500990 501981
      501964 500957 499948 498935 496921 495913 494904 497891
      500879 504866 510843 512837 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739 447741
      451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439216 439211 433206 429206 424207 421208 419206
      416200 413195 409190 408184 409175 411158 405146 402144
      399144 395144 390137 390134 392131 401125 406120 409115
      410105 410101 409098 408095 406095 403102 401101 400097
      400093 402090 403082 405077 407070 410066 411054 411049
      410047 407044 409042 413038 421027 421023 420019 417017
      412015 406016 398023 390033 384034 380030 379021 377013
      374007 369004 367001 367999 366992 367988 362984 352979
      341976 336978 333982 329995 329004 331009 328012 318017
      313020 309021 307022 302025 301027 300031 299037 298044
      300049 303053 307051 309049 310044 313039 315037 319036
      323037 326035 331031 339031 341033 341037 342041 343045
      341048 338049 332050 329051 328053 325057 330062 334063
      337065 338067 325070 320071 316073 314076 309076 302074
      298072 296070 293066 291064 287064 280065 275066 270063
      266063 265065 265069 266072 269075 270084 271087 276093
      280097 285102 290106 298114 310120 315123 319124 322123
      326112 333114 336119 338124 342129 346132 349131 351129
      363110 364117 362125 364127 365130 361134 357144 356150
      359156 361161 365166 368171 369174 367177 364178 362182
      365187 375195 380200 385205 390208 394212 401219 405224
      406232 409236 413237 417237 419236 422230 426230 428228
      432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343688 335703 332710 329716 321730 316738
      313745 305759 287783 282790 279792 275793 267794 259796
      253800 248806 246809 247814 249817 253817 259817 262819
      268824 270828 269832 267841 270860 270870 269880 268902
      267912 266916 266921 264925 264931 261939 259945 258956
      257960 257966 257968 261965 264963 270962 274958 280943
      283936 283933 285932 288933 299933 301931 301924 303920
      303915 303903 307886 309878 308875 308871 310860 313852
      315847 316846 317849 319852 323851 326845 328837 330827
      331823 336821 342816 344807 345801 346796 349789 353773
      357757 360747 362743 364738 368721 371684 372670 369665
      365662
 0.25 490932 490925 490920 488912 486904 482899 473873 473861
      471859 470856 471840 471836 468834 463832 462827 463819
      466812 466804 464796 461791 458788 456788 452792 446800
      432841 432846 432849 430857 428864 430873 429879 427886
      418893 414897 412899 411903 411912 413920 405925 404931
      404936 405940 408946 410948 414948 418945 418935 419930
      421931 423937 426937 430936 433932 438926 439929 439935
      441942 444948 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442921
      442916 444912 449909 455908 457901 456896 457888 472907
      475913 477919 482932 484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
      527161 526161 527161
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064 359071
      362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089 382088
      384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357715 354709 350713 347719 343723 339727
      335730 330735 322744 315753 304773 291794 286798 280799
      268799 260801 254803 252808 257811 263812 268814 279812
      284813 281818 277823 275828 272841 272846 274853 278884
      277912 282915 286912 289905 290899 291891 293885 297874
      302861 306850 309838 313826 315818 319813 323809 326804
      336784 342771 347760 355737 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321099 318095 316092 311090 307093 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      376080 377080 379078
 0.50 351729 349725 345725 339731 334736 329742 318755 310769
      301783 298792 297796 300800 303811 305815 306818 305819
      300821 298820 295819 292820 286821 283823 279827 278830
      275838 274844 276848 278858 282867 285873 289872 292870
      300854 303846 305838 306831 307828 309824 308820 312813
      317808 322801 326793 334778 341763 345755 347747 350736
      351729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306787 308791 309794 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 289824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 525257 521259 519260 516259 510257 507256 505253 503247
      500243 501238 503236 506234 512231 515229 517227 520229
      525230 527236 530240 534226 526226 521223 520219 518211
      512205 507204 505201 501196 498195 494197 492192 491188
      486181 476177 473175 470175 465181 444206 434222 430228
      426232 423236 420235 415230 417226 419219 420215 421208
      419205 416203 415191 415188 413184 406182 402179 397178
      393170 393167 391166 388166 390155 399150 403142 408136
      412129 413122 410118 405112 406099 406092 403091 400092
      397092 394090 388090 384088 381084 379081 378071 373066
      373062 372057 371052 367050 360046 355040 339035 336036
      331036 321035 321025 322013 326006 332001 338994 340991
      341985 340966 339957 344952 350947 355940 357936 356931
      356919 357907 358902 358894 357872 358867 358862 357855
      356851 354837 354826 356816 356806 357801 357796 353786
      352782 349779 344786 338799 325809 319815 312820 311822
      311825 312831 313834 314839 312843 313850 313861 313872
      313882 313894 315899 315905 316911 318915 321923 319930
      316938 301946 289951 286949 282950 278950 277947 274939
      271930 268923 266914 262895 257875 252859 249851 248846
      246842 241825 240814 240805 240799 243798 249794 279777
      285772 289769 294767 298763 303757 315745 323733 334722
      345710 357698 367685 394668 429653 434651 438648 443640
      447633 453628 468626 477627 484628 487630 491627 495622
      499619
 0.01 522673 519673 518678 520681 522686 521690 520697 523704
      523708 525711 526718 528723 528727 530731 531737 531741
      533744 535761 533776 530790 530797 530801 531804 532819
      533824 534829 536834 541847 544861 546867 546874 546893
      547901 545908 543912 540916 536917 531918 526918 522914
      515908 508898 503890 495886 486881 483879 480876 478875
      479872 476870 474863 474857 476843 477836 472833 465829
      463827 462831 463839 467867 469873 470881 471885 466886
      462886 460888 456889 452878 441861 436851 431842 428838
      426832 424827 422819 415796 412800 409805 404815 399824
      394833 390843 388846 389849 390856 393868 398877 410896
      417915 422926 424933 426938 433959 441982 447991 453998
      459007 462011 465014 470018 473019 474021 482025 492030
      497031 501033 512035 519039 538048 543057 545060 546067
      549081 550088 550098 551117 551123 553127 556130
 0.01 480919 480917 480914 480912 479912 477912 477915 477917
      479918 480919 480919
 0.01 472892 471890 470890 468890 466893 465895 465898 465900
      465903 467905 468903 470900 470898 472895 472892
 0.01 433135 431133 429131 428132 429134 429135 431137 433135
      433135
 0.01 345059 342054 340051 336050 330048 326043 308025 302026
      298031 295037 294046 295053 297056 295058 289061 282063
      250059 244057 242059 244062 252071 261079 265084 269088
      274092 280094 288096 294096 300093 304089 312078 315072
      316063 322060 328062 334063 340063 345059
 0.01 322095 320093 317088 315086 312086 309090 307094 305098
      306102 308106 311108 316107 318103 320099 322095
 0.01 246788 245788 244787 243786 241786 239786 237787 237788
      236790 236791 235792 236794 238794 240795 242795 244794
      245793 245791 245789 246788
 0.25 550163 547164 543160 540155 539148 536137 532131 529127
      526128 524130 524135 525139 526153 525158 524159 519157
      514147 512142 510136 510131 509128 505127 499125 494125
      489135 488139 488142 491146 495150 496156 495164 491166
      490170 492171 494172 497174 499178 501180 505180 510182
      515179 516173 519172 523176 526181 533188 538191 541195
      542199
 0.25 504629 499632 496635 493639 487640 480639 475638 470639
      466644 462643 457643 453643 450645 448651 449665 444674
      443679 443686 444689 443692 440696 433703 430707 426709
      421708 418704 413704 408706 404709 402713 400716 399720
      402723 408733 408737 408743 405753 401763 398773 399778
      404780 408778 411775 425761 436761 442755 444751 445746
      447741 452738 459734 468736 473736 477734 481730 486722
      491713 495703 499693 504670 508656 508647 509641
 0.25 471148 472142 472137 469130 462116 455078 455072 457066
      457060 456049 454039 451031 448024 445017 443007 441999
      438991 432976 427960 421945 414929 407915 399901 395897
      388893 384894 381897 379904 380915 379927 376935 373941
      370949 366954 361961 358967 354974 353979 351997 350008
      352016 355019 359020 366022 379029 383030 386029 394028
      397026 400028 402031 407033 412037 416043 421048 425054
      428061 429066 427069 422074 418075 416078 417082 420084
      425086 431085 433086 433091 432095 432100 433110 439126
      441144 445162 447165 451168 456169 461165 463160 465157
      469152 471148
 0.25 399797 398793 396792 393794 391795 390797 388799 387802
      386806 389808 392805 394803 395802 397800 399797
 0.25 383745 383741 382738 378735 375722 377710 367712 351726
      338741 335744 332749 329759 319776 317782 316785 321784
      326781 331779 335776 342768 357755 364749 366747 368748
      372752 375753 379752 383745
 0.25 383823 382817 380812 375809 371810 368815 367820 364833
      364839 364847 365853 367860 373869 377869 379864 380858
      379850 378845 379839 380832 382827 383823
 0.25 310788 309788 307788 305788 304788 302788 300788 298789
      297790 297791 297792 297793 297794 299795 301795 303795
      304794 305793 306792 307791 308790 309788 310788
 0.25 302076 300074 296072 287072 278071 269069 265069 263072
      268077 274081 279084 286085 294083 299080 302076
 0.25 299834 299828 298823 295815 283806 275803 267803 262803
      257805 254807 255811 260816 268818 276819 280821 280823
      275831 273838 273844 274850 277857 281863 288864 290860
      294858 296854 296850 299834
 0.25 299912 300904 300897 299882 298876 295872 291869 286872
      284876 282881 281894 282908 283913 286918 290927 294931
      296929 298923 298916 299912
 0.50 503639 502639 501640 500642 499643 500645 500646 500645
      502644 503642 503641 503639
 0.50 495658 494650 492646 489644 487646 484649 481655 481660
      483664 485669 490667 493664 495660 495658
 0.50 481693 481688 477686 470687 464691 458697 448707 438717
      429730 427738 426741 429744 435740 440735 451724 457720
      464716 470711 474706 481693
 0.50 450063 449057 447053 446046 447039 443031 439023 437012
      435000 428981 421961 414942 411934 407926 401917 400915
      397914 395915 393919 392924 392938 391942 388945 382946
      378947 375950 373954 370964 361978 360985 360990 364999
      367002 369006 374012 380014 384013 387011 390007 394999
      397995 400995 408012 411023 413027 416030 425032 429034
      431039 434048 436052 439055 445060 448064 450063
 0.50 368723 368720 366720 363722 359728 354734 352736 350740
      347747 344753 344757 346756 352751 357745 359738 363732
      367726 368723
 0.50 294834 293830 293828 291826 287825 283827 282829 281831
      280834 280838 281840 283843 285844 287843 290842 292841
      293837 294834
 1.00 379988 379986 379983 378982 377981 375983 375985 375986
      376988 378989 379988

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST OF
CA SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OR SUN NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN OR. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITH
A WAVE MOVING ONSHORE MON...PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/09Z SREF
MEAN.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT WITH ITS BULLS EYES
OVER WESTERN OR 12-21Z MON. A PAIR OF WAVES IMPACT THE REST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ONE LEAD WAVE
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE 12Z
NAM DEVELOPED A STRONGER CIRCULATION AFTER PRODUCING CONVECTION IN
WY MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE EXTENDING TO WESTERN SD...SO ITS AMOUNTS
APPEARED TO BE OVERDONE WITH POSSIBLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.
CONSEQUENTLY AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO BE LOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB JET HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE WPC QPF USED
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET.  12Z NAM MI
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH AS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS FAVORED BY
THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH TIME.
CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
ENHANCEMENTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN.  THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND BEYOND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BUT MOST CONDITIONS PERSIST
SFC-700 MB AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS IN THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND VT GREEN MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS NE AND THEN NORTHERN MO ON
DAY 3.
THE TRICK HERE IS THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND WHERE ANY
CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON DAY 2...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSES OUT OF UT ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN
NM. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE UT WASATCH AND THE RANGES OF CO DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST NM AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEADING INTO OK/KS/MO.  THE DIFFER ON TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
700-500 MB WAVE SO A BLEND OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GFS/12Z NAM QPF WAS USED.

...SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

THE MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS BANDS OF 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSIST OF
WEST CENTRAL FL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE
INCLUDED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.
THE AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS ON
DAY 3 AND PRESSURES RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO BOTH SEA BREEZES PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
INTERIOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM SEA BREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS.

THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET LOOK OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
GA/SC/NC. THE 00-12Z UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP
CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH INDUCES HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z-12Z GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED IN THIS REGION...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO USED
IN THE FL PENINSULA DAY 3.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530119
      529108 528105 525105 524118 523123 522129 520132 516131
      510136 508143 507150 508154 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526197 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 520792 519784 515780 512777 508773 504771 496767
      493766 488767 485770 484772 482770 482763 482756 481747
      478742 474740 470743 466745 462750 450766 427798 423803
      419804 413806 410807 409809 407814 407822 408829 410835
      411842 412847 412852 412856 410861 405870 400878 388895
      385899 385906 388909 394910 399919 399927 397932 394941
      393945 392941 390936 389927 387922 382913 376904 373900
      369896 367893 364893 363896 365900 366909 368916 370920
      374925 377931 383938 389947 392950 392958 392974 391979
      388983 386988 386997 386003 388006 392007 394006 399003
      402999 405994 406988 408987 411989 415991 420992 424992
      428990 434985 442978 449971 456962 459958 461952 463946
      463938 466933 467941 468953 472965 477975 480987 480992
      482994 485998 489002 493003 497002 499996 500990 501981
      501964 500957 499948 498935 496921 495913 494904 497891
      500879 504866 510843 512837 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739 447741
      451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439216 439211 433206 429206 424207 421208 419206
      416200 413195 409190 408184 409175 411158 405146 402144
      399144 395144 390137 390134 392131 401125 406120 409115
      410105 410101 409098 408095 406095 403102 401101 400097
      400093 402090 403082 405077 407070 410066 411054 411049
      410047 407044 409042 413038 421027 421023 420019 417017
      412015 406016 398023 390033 384034 380030 379021 377013
      374007 369004 367001 367999 366992 367988 362984 352979
      341976 336978 333982 329995 329004 331009 328012 318017
      313020 309021 307022 302025 301027 300031 299037 298044
      300049 303053 307051 309049 310044 313039 315037 319036
      323037 326035 331031 339031 341033 341037 342041 343045
      341048 338049 332050 329051 328053 325057 330062 334063
      337065 338067 325070 320071 316073 314076 309076 302074
      298072 296070 293066 291064 287064 280065 275066 270063
      266063 265065 265069 266072 269075 270084 271087 276093
      280097 285102 290106 298114 310120 315123 319124 322123
      326112 333114 336119 338124 342129 346132 349131 351129
      363110 364117 362125 364127 365130 361134 357144 356150
      359156 361161 365166 368171 369174 367177 364178 362182
      365187 375195 380200 385205 390208 394212 401219 405224
      406232 409236 413237 417237 419236 422230 426230 428228
      432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343688 335703 332710 329716 321730 316738
      313745 305759 287783 282790 279792 275793 267794 259796
      253800 248806 246809 247814 249817 253817 259817 262819
      268824 270828 269832 267841 270860 270870 269880 268902
      267912 266916 266921 264925 264931 261939 259945 258956
      257960 257966 257968 261965 264963 270962 274958 280943
      283936 283933 285932 288933 299933 301931 301924 303920
      303915 303903 307886 309878 308875 308871 310860 313852
      315847 316846 317849 319852 323851 326845 328837 330827
      331823 336821 342816 344807 345801 346796 349789 353773
      357757 360747 362743 364738 368721 371684 372670 369665
      365662
 0.25 490932 490925 490920 488912 486904 482899 473873 473861
      471859 470856 471840 471836 468834 463832 462827 463819
      466812 466804 464796 461791 458788 456788 452792 446800
      432841 432846 432849 430857 428864 430873 429879 427886
      418893 414897 412899 411903 411912 413920 405925 404931
      404936 405940 408946 410948 414948 418945 418935 419930
      421931 423937 426937 430936 433932 438926 439929 439935
      441942 444948 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442921
      442916 444912 449909 455908 457901 456896 457888 472907
      475913 477919 482932 484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
      527161 526161 527161
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064 359071
      362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089 382088
      384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357715 354709 350713 347719 343723 339727
      335730 330735 322744 315753 304773 291794 286798 280799
      268799 260801 254803 252808 257811 263812 268814 279812
      284813 281818 277823 275828 272841 272846 274853 278884
      277912 282915 286912 289905 290899 291891 293885 297874
      302861 306850 309838 313826 315818 319813 323809 326804
      336784 342771 347760 355737 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321099 318095 316092 311090 307093 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      376080 377080 379078
 0.50 351729 349725 345725 339731 334736 329742 318755 310769
      301783 298792 297796 300800 303811 305815 306818 305819
      300821 298820 295819 292820 286821 283823 279827 278830
      275838 274844 276848 278858 282867 285873 289872 292870
      300854 303846 305838 306831 307828 309824 308820 312813
      317808 322801 326793 334778 341763 345755 347747 350736
      351729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306787 308791 309794 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 289824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 525257 521259 519260 516259 510257 507256 505253 503247
      500243 501238 503236 506234 512231 515229 517227 520229
      525230 527236 530240 534226 526226 521223 520219 518211
      512205 507204 505201 501196 498195 494197 492192 491188
      486181 476177 473175 470175 465181 444206 434222 430228
      426232 423236 420235 415230 417226 419219 420215 421208
      419205 416203 415191 415188 413184 406182 402179 397178
      393170 393167 391166 388166 390155 399150 403142 408136
      412129 413122 410118 405112 406099 406092 403091 400092
      397092 394090 388090 384088 381084 379081 378071 373066
      373062 372057 371052 367050 360046 355040 339035 336036
      331036 321035 321025 322013 326006 332001 338994 340991
      341985 340966 339957 344952 350947 355940 357936 356931
      356919 357907 358902 358894 357872 358867 358862 357855
      356851 354837 354826 356816 356806 357801 357796 353786
      352782 349779 344786 338799 325809 319815 312820 311822
      311825 312831 313834 314839 312843 313850 313861 313872
      313882 313894 315899 315905 316911 318915 321923 319930
      316938 301946 289951 286949 282950 278950 277947 274939
      271930 268923 266914 262895 257875 252859 249851 248846
      246842 241825 240814 240805 240799 243798 249794 279777
      285772 289769 294767 298763 303757 315745 323733 334722
      345710 357698 367685 394668 429653 434651 438648 443640
      447633 453628 468626 477627 484628 487630 491627 495622
      499619
 0.01 522673 519673 518678 520681 522686 521690 520697 523704
      523708 525711 526718 528723 528727 530731 531737 531741
      533744 535761 533776 530790 530797 530801 531804 532819
      533824 534829 536834 541847 544861 546867 546874 546893
      547901 545908 543912 540916 536917 531918 526918 522914
      515908 508898 503890 495886 486881 483879 480876 478875
      479872 476870 474863 474857 476843 477836 472833 465829
      463827 462831 463839 467867 469873 470881 471885 466886
      462886 460888 456889 452878 441861 436851 431842 428838
      426832 424827 422819 415796 412800 409805 404815 399824
      394833 390843 388846 389849 390856 393868 398877 410896
      417915 422926 424933 426938 433959 441982 447991 453998
      459007 462011 465014 470018 473019 474021 482025 492030
      497031 501033 512035 519039 538048 543057 545060 546067
      549081 550088 550098 551117 551123 553127 556130
 0.01 480919 480917 480914 480912 479912 477912 477915 477917
      479918 480919 480919
 0.01 472892 471890 470890 468890 466893 465895 465898 465900
      465903 467905 468903 470900 470898 472895 472892
 0.01 433135 431133 429131 428132 429134 429135 431137 433135
      433135
 0.01 345059 342054 340051 336050 330048 326043 308025 302026
      298031 295037 294046 295053 297056 295058 289061 282063
      250059 244057 242059 244062 252071 261079 265084 269088
      274092 280094 288096 294096 300093 304089 312078 315072
      316063 322060 328062 334063 340063 345059
 0.01 322095 320093 317088 315086 312086 309090 307094 305098
      306102 308106 311108 316107 318103 320099 322095
 0.01 246788 245788 244787 243786 241786 239786 237787 237788
      236790 236791 235792 236794 238794 240795 242795 244794
      245793 245791 245789 246788
 0.25 550163 547164 543160 540155 539148 536137 532131 529127
      526128 524130 524135 525139 526153 525158 524159 519157
      514147 512142 510136 510131 509128 505127 499125 494125
      489135 488139 488142 491146 495150 496156 495164 491166
      490170 492171 494172 497174 499178 501180 505180 510182
      515179 516173 519172 523176 526181 533188 538191 541195
      542199
 0.25 504629 499632 496635 493639 487640 480639 475638 470639
      466644 462643 457643 453643 450645 448651 449665 444674
      443679 443686 444689 443692 440696 433703 430707 426709
      421708 418704 413704 408706 404709 402713 400716 399720
      402723 408733 408737 408743 405753 401763 398773 399778
      404780 408778 411775 425761 436761 442755 444751 445746
      447741 452738 459734 468736 473736 477734 481730 486722
      491713 495703 499693 504670 508656 508647 509641
 0.25 471148 472142 472137 469130 462116 455078 455072 457066
      457060 456049 454039 451031 448024 445017 443007 441999
      438991 432976 427960 421945 414929 407915 399901 395897
      388893 384894 381897 379904 380915 379927 376935 373941
      370949 366954 361961 358967 354974 353979 351997 350008
      352016 355019 359020 366022 379029 383030 386029 394028
      397026 400028 402031 407033 412037 416043 421048 425054
      428061 429066 427069 422074 418075 416078 417082 420084
      425086 431085 433086 433091 432095 432100 433110 439126
      441144 445162 447165 451168 456169 461165 463160 465157
      469152 471148
 0.25 399797 398793 396792 393794 391795 390797 388799 387802
      386806 389808 392805 394803 395802 397800 399797
 0.25 383745 383741 382738 378735 375722 377710 367712 351726
      338741 335744 332749 329759 319776 317782 316785 321784
      326781 331779 335776 342768 357755 364749 366747 368748
      372752 375753 379752 383745
 0.25 383823 382817 380812 375809 371810 368815 367820 364833
      364839 364847 365853 367860 373869 377869 379864 380858
      379850 378845 379839 380832 382827 383823
 0.25 310788 309788 307788 305788 304788 302788 300788 298789
      297790 297791 297792 297793 297794 299795 301795 303795
      304794 305793 306792 307791 308790 309788 310788
 0.25 302076 300074 296072 287072 278071 269069 265069 263072
      268077 274081 279084 286085 294083 299080 302076
 0.25 299834 299828 298823 295815 283806 275803 267803 262803
      257805 254807 255811 260816 268818 276819 280821 280823
      275831 273838 273844 274850 277857 281863 288864 290860
      294858 296854 296850 299834
 0.25 299912 300904 300897 299882 298876 295872 291869 286872
      284876 282881 281894 282908 283913 286918 290927 294931
      296929 298923 298916 299912
 0.50 503639 502639 501640 500642 499643 500645 500646 500645
      502644 503642 503641 503639
 0.50 495658 494650 492646 489644 487646 484649 481655 481660
      483664 485669 490667 493664 495660 495658
 0.50 481693 481688 477686 470687 464691 458697 448707 438717
      429730 427738 426741 429744 435740 440735 451724 457720
      464716 470711 474706 481693
 0.50 450063 449057 447053 446046 447039 443031 439023 437012
      435000 428981 421961 414942 411934 407926 401917 400915
      397914 395915 393919 392924 392938 391942 388945 382946
      378947 375950 373954 370964 361978 360985 360990 364999
      367002 369006 374012 380014 384013 387011 390007 394999
      397995 400995 408012 411023 413027 416030 425032 429034
      431039 434048 436052 439055 445060 448064 450063
 0.50 368723 368720 366720 363722 359728 354734 352736 350740
      347747 344753 344757 346756 352751 357745 359738 363732
      367726 368723
 0.50 294834 293830 293828 291826 287825 283827 282829 281831
      280834 280838 281840 283843 285844 287843 290842 292841
      293837 294834
 1.00 379988 379986 379983 378982 377981 375983 375985 375986
      376988 378989 379988

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 011953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST OF
CA SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OR SUN NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN OR. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP WITH
A WAVE MOVING ONSHORE MON...PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN OR CASCADES.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/09Z SREF
MEAN.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT WITH ITS BULLS EYES
OVER WESTERN OR 12-21Z MON. A PAIR OF WAVES IMPACT THE REST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ONE LEAD WAVE
DEPARTING THE ROCKIES ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE 12Z
NAM DEVELOPED A STRONGER CIRCULATION AFTER PRODUCING CONVECTION IN
WY MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE EXTENDING TO WESTERN SD...SO ITS AMOUNTS
APPEARED TO BE OVERDONE WITH POSSIBLE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.
CONSEQUENTLY AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO BE LOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB JET HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE WPC QPF USED
A CONSENSUS OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/12Z UKMET.  12Z NAM MI
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HIGH AS FORWARD PROPAGATION IS FAVORED BY
THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH TIME.
CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
ENHANCEMENTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WINDWARD TERRAIN.  THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND BEYOND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BUT MOST CONDITIONS PERSIST
SFC-700 MB AND LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS IN THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND VT GREEN MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN A NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS NE AND THEN NORTHERN MO ON
DAY 3.
THE TRICK HERE IS THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND WHERE ANY
CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON DAY 2...A 700 MB WAVE CROSSES OUT OF UT ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN
NM. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE UT WASATCH AND THE RANGES OF CO DOWN
INTO NORTHEAST NM AND THEN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
ON DAY 3 THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEADING INTO OK/KS/MO.  THE DIFFER ON TIMING AND PHASING OF THE
700-500 MB WAVE SO A BLEND OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GFS/12Z NAM QPF WAS USED.

...SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA...

THE MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE AS BANDS OF 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSIST OF
WEST CENTRAL FL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE
INCLUDED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.
THE AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TAPER AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS ON
DAY 3 AND PRESSURES RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO BOTH SEA BREEZES PROPAGATING INLAND WITH
INTERIOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM SEA BREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS.

THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET LOOK OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
GA/SC/NC. THE 00-12Z UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP
CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH INDUCES HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z-12Z GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED IN THIS REGION...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO USED
IN THE FL PENINSULA DAY 3.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530119
      529108 528105 525105 524118 523123 522129 520132 516131
      510136 508143 507150 508154 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526197 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 520792 519784 515780 512777 508773 504771 496767
      493766 488767 485770 484772 482770 482763 482756 481747
      478742 474740 470743 466745 462750 450766 427798 423803
      419804 413806 410807 409809 407814 407822 408829 410835
      411842 412847 412852 412856 410861 405870 400878 388895
      385899 385906 388909 394910 399919 399927 397932 394941
      393945 392941 390936 389927 387922 382913 376904 373900
      369896 367893 364893 363896 365900 366909 368916 370920
      374925 377931 383938 389947 392950 392958 392974 391979
      388983 386988 386997 386003 388006 392007 394006 399003
      402999 405994 406988 408987 411989 415991 420992 424992
      428990 434985 442978 449971 456962 459958 461952 463946
      463938 466933 467941 468953 472965 477975 480987 480992
      482994 485998 489002 493003 497002 499996 500990 501981
      501964 500957 499948 498935 496921 495913 494904 497891
      500879 504866 510843 512837 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739 447741
      451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439216 439211 433206 429206 424207 421208 419206
      416200 413195 409190 408184 409175 411158 405146 402144
      399144 395144 390137 390134 392131 401125 406120 409115
      410105 410101 409098 408095 406095 403102 401101 400097
      400093 402090 403082 405077 407070 410066 411054 411049
      410047 407044 409042 413038 421027 421023 420019 417017
      412015 406016 398023 390033 384034 380030 379021 377013
      374007 369004 367001 367999 366992 367988 362984 352979
      341976 336978 333982 329995 329004 331009 328012 318017
      313020 309021 307022 302025 301027 300031 299037 298044
      300049 303053 307051 309049 310044 313039 315037 319036
      323037 326035 331031 339031 341033 341037 342041 343045
      341048 338049 332050 329051 328053 325057 330062 334063
      337065 338067 325070 320071 316073 314076 309076 302074
      298072 296070 293066 291064 287064 280065 275066 270063
      266063 265065 265069 266072 269075 270084 271087 276093
      280097 285102 290106 298114 310120 315123 319124 322123
      326112 333114 336119 338124 342129 346132 349131 351129
      363110 364117 362125 364127 365130 361134 357144 356150
      359156 361161 365166 368171 369174 367177 364178 362182
      365187 375195 380200 385205 390208 394212 401219 405224
      406232 409236 413237 417237 419236 422230 426230 428228
      432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343688 335703 332710 329716 321730 316738
      313745 305759 287783 282790 279792 275793 267794 259796
      253800 248806 246809 247814 249817 253817 259817 262819
      268824 270828 269832 267841 270860 270870 269880 268902
      267912 266916 266921 264925 264931 261939 259945 258956
      257960 257966 257968 261965 264963 270962 274958 280943
      283936 283933 285932 288933 299933 301931 301924 303920
      303915 303903 307886 309878 308875 308871 310860 313852
      315847 316846 317849 319852 323851 326845 328837 330827
      331823 336821 342816 344807 345801 346796 349789 353773
      357757 360747 362743 364738 368721 371684 372670 369665
      365662
 0.25 490932 490925 490920 488912 486904 482899 473873 473861
      471859 470856 471840 471836 468834 463832 462827 463819
      466812 466804 464796 461791 458788 456788 452792 446800
      432841 432846 432849 430857 428864 430873 429879 427886
      418893 414897 412899 411903 411912 413920 405925 404931
      404936 405940 408946 410948 414948 418945 418935 419930
      421931 423937 426937 430936 433932 438926 439929 439935
      441942 444948 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442921
      442916 444912 449909 455908 457901 456896 457888 472907
      475913 477919 482932 484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
      527161 526161 527161
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064 359071
      362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089 382088
      384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357715 354709 350713 347719 343723 339727
      335730 330735 322744 315753 304773 291794 286798 280799
      268799 260801 254803 252808 257811 263812 268814 279812
      284813 281818 277823 275828 272841 272846 274853 278884
      277912 282915 286912 289905 290899 291891 293885 297874
      302861 306850 309838 313826 315818 319813 323809 326804
      336784 342771 347760 355737 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321099 318095 316092 311090 307093 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      376080 377080 379078
 0.50 351729 349725 345725 339731 334736 329742 318755 310769
      301783 298792 297796 300800 303811 305815 306818 305819
      300821 298820 295819 292820 286821 283823 279827 278830
      275838 274844 276848 278858 282867 285873 289872 292870
      300854 303846 305838 306831 307828 309824 308820 312813
      317808 322801 326793 334778 341763 345755 347747 350736
      351729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306787 308791 309794 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 289824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 525257 521259 519260 516259 510257 507256 505253 503247
      500243 501238 503236 506234 512231 515229 517227 520229
      525230 527236 530240 534226 526226 521223 520219 518211
      512205 507204 505201 501196 498195 494197 492192 491188
      486181 476177 473175 470175 465181 444206 434222 430228
      426232 423236 420235 415230 417226 419219 420215 421208
      419205 416203 415191 415188 413184 406182 402179 397178
      393170 393167 391166 388166 390155 399150 403142 408136
      412129 413122 410118 405112 406099 406092 403091 400092
      397092 394090 388090 384088 381084 379081 378071 373066
      373062 372057 371052 367050 360046 355040 339035 336036
      331036 321035 321025 322013 326006 332001 338994 340991
      341985 340966 339957 344952 350947 355940 357936 356931
      356919 357907 358902 358894 357872 358867 358862 357855
      356851 354837 354826 356816 356806 357801 357796 353786
      352782 349779 344786 338799 325809 319815 312820 311822
      311825 312831 313834 314839 312843 313850 313861 313872
      313882 313894 315899 315905 316911 318915 321923 319930
      316938 301946 289951 286949 282950 278950 277947 274939
      271930 268923 266914 262895 257875 252859 249851 248846
      246842 241825 240814 240805 240799 243798 249794 279777
      285772 289769 294767 298763 303757 315745 323733 334722
      345710 357698 367685 394668 429653 434651 438648 443640
      447633 453628 468626 477627 484628 487630 491627 495622
      499619
 0.01 522673 519673 518678 520681 522686 521690 520697 523704
      523708 525711 526718 528723 528727 530731 531737 531741
      533744 535761 533776 530790 530797 530801 531804 532819
      533824 534829 536834 541847 544861 546867 546874 546893
      547901 545908 543912 540916 536917 531918 526918 522914
      515908 508898 503890 495886 486881 483879 480876 478875
      479872 476870 474863 474857 476843 477836 472833 465829
      463827 462831 463839 467867 469873 470881 471885 466886
      462886 460888 456889 452878 441861 436851 431842 428838
      426832 424827 422819 415796 412800 409805 404815 399824
      394833 390843 388846 389849 390856 393868 398877 410896
      417915 422926 424933 426938 433959 441982 447991 453998
      459007 462011 465014 470018 473019 474021 482025 492030
      497031 501033 512035 519039 538048 543057 545060 546067
      549081 550088 550098 551117 551123 553127 556130
 0.01 480919 480917 480914 480912 479912 477912 477915 477917
      479918 480919 480919
 0.01 472892 471890 470890 468890 466893 465895 465898 465900
      465903 467905 468903 470900 470898 472895 472892
 0.01 433135 431133 429131 428132 429134 429135 431137 433135
      433135
 0.01 345059 342054 340051 336050 330048 326043 308025 302026
      298031 295037 294046 295053 297056 295058 289061 282063
      250059 244057 242059 244062 252071 261079 265084 269088
      274092 280094 288096 294096 300093 304089 312078 315072
      316063 322060 328062 334063 340063 345059
 0.01 322095 320093 317088 315086 312086 309090 307094 305098
      306102 308106 311108 316107 318103 320099 322095
 0.01 246788 245788 244787 243786 241786 239786 237787 237788
      236790 236791 235792 236794 238794 240795 242795 244794
      245793 245791 245789 246788
 0.25 550163 547164 543160 540155 539148 536137 532131 529127
      526128 524130 524135 525139 526153 525158 524159 519157
      514147 512142 510136 510131 509128 505127 499125 494125
      489135 488139 488142 491146 495150 496156 495164 491166
      490170 492171 494172 497174 499178 501180 505180 510182
      515179 516173 519172 523176 526181 533188 538191 541195
      542199
 0.25 504629 499632 496635 493639 487640 480639 475638 470639
      466644 462643 457643 453643 450645 448651 449665 444674
      443679 443686 444689 443692 440696 433703 430707 426709
      421708 418704 413704 408706 404709 402713 400716 399720
      402723 408733 408737 408743 405753 401763 398773 399778
      404780 408778 411775 425761 436761 442755 444751 445746
      447741 452738 459734 468736 473736 477734 481730 486722
      491713 495703 499693 504670 508656 508647 509641
 0.25 471148 472142 472137 469130 462116 455078 455072 457066
      457060 456049 454039 451031 448024 445017 443007 441999
      438991 432976 427960 421945 414929 407915 399901 395897
      388893 384894 381897 379904 380915 379927 376935 373941
      370949 366954 361961 358967 354974 353979 351997 350008
      352016 355019 359020 366022 379029 383030 386029 394028
      397026 400028 402031 407033 412037 416043 421048 425054
      428061 429066 427069 422074 418075 416078 417082 420084
      425086 431085 433086 433091 432095 432100 433110 439126
      441144 445162 447165 451168 456169 461165 463160 465157
      469152 471148
 0.25 399797 398793 396792 393794 391795 390797 388799 387802
      386806 389808 392805 394803 395802 397800 399797
 0.25 383745 383741 382738 378735 375722 377710 367712 351726
      338741 335744 332749 329759 319776 317782 316785 321784
      326781 331779 335776 342768 357755 364749 366747 368748
      372752 375753 379752 383745
 0.25 383823 382817 380812 375809 371810 368815 367820 364833
      364839 364847 365853 367860 373869 377869 379864 380858
      379850 378845 379839 380832 382827 383823
 0.25 310788 309788 307788 305788 304788 302788 300788 298789
      297790 297791 297792 297793 297794 299795 301795 303795
      304794 305793 306792 307791 308790 309788 310788
 0.25 302076 300074 296072 287072 278071 269069 265069 263072
      268077 274081 279084 286085 294083 299080 302076
 0.25 299834 299828 298823 295815 283806 275803 267803 262803
      257805 254807 255811 260816 268818 276819 280821 280823
      275831 273838 273844 274850 277857 281863 288864 290860
      294858 296854 296850 299834
 0.25 299912 300904 300897 299882 298876 295872 291869 286872
      284876 282881 281894 282908 283913 286918 290927 294931
      296929 298923 298916 299912
 0.50 503639 502639 501640 500642 499643 500645 500646 500645
      502644 503642 503641 503639
 0.50 495658 494650 492646 489644 487646 484649 481655 481660
      483664 485669 490667 493664 495660 495658
 0.50 481693 481688 477686 470687 464691 458697 448707 438717
      429730 427738 426741 429744 435740 440735 451724 457720
      464716 470711 474706 481693
 0.50 450063 449057 447053 446046 447039 443031 439023 437012
      435000 428981 421961 414942 411934 407926 401917 400915
      397914 395915 393919 392924 392938 391942 388945 382946
      378947 375950 373954 370964 361978 360985 360990 364999
      367002 369006 374012 380014 384013 387011 390007 394999
      397995 400995 408012 411023 413027 416030 425032 429034
      431039 434048 436052 439055 445060 448064 450063
 0.50 368723 368720 366720 363722 359728 354734 352736 350740
      347747 344753 344757 346756 352751 357745 359738 363732
      367726 368723
 0.50 294834 293830 293828 291826 287825 283827 282829 281831
      280834 280838 281840 283843 285844 287843 290842 292841
      293837 294834
 1.00 379988 379986 379983 378982 377981 375983 375985 375986
      376988 378989 379988

$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 011948
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-012003
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011938
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011953
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
238 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011928
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011943
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011928
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011943
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011918
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011933
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011908
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011923
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011904
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011919
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011903
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011917
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011903
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011917
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011848
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011903
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 011844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530119
      529108 528105 525105 524118 523123 522129 520132 516131
      510136 508143 507150 508154 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526197 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 520792 519784 515780 512777 508773 504771 496767
      493766 488767 485770 484772 482770 482763 482756 481747
      478742 474740 470743 466745 462750 450766 427798 423803
      419804 413806 410807 409809 407814 407822 408829 410835
      411842 412847 412852 412856 410861 405870 400878 388895
      385899 385906 388909 394910 399919 399927 397932 394941
      393945 392941 390936 389927 387922 382913 376904 373900
      369896 367893 364893 363896 365900 366909 368916 370920
      374925 377931 383938 389947 392950 392958 392974 391979
      388983 386988 386997 386003 388006 392007 394006 399003
      402999 405994 406988 408987 411989 415991 420992 424992
      428990 434985 442978 449971 456962 459958 461952 463946
      463938 466933 467941 468953 472965 477975 480987 480992
      482994 485998 489002 493003 497002 499996 500990 501981
      501964 500957 499948 498935 496921 495913 494904 497891
      500879 504866 510843 512837 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739 447741
      451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439216 439211 433206 429206 424207 421208 419206
      416200 413195 409190 408184 409175 411158 405146 402144
      399144 395144 390137 390134 392131 401125 406120 409115
      410105 410101 409098 408095 406095 403102 401101 400097
      400093 402090 403082 405077 407070 410066 411054 411049
      410047 407044 409042 413038 421027 421023 420019 417017
      412015 406016 398023 390033 384034 380030 379021 377013
      374007 369004 367001 367999 366992 367988 362984 352979
      341976 336978 333982 329995 329004 331009 328012 318017
      313020 309021 307022 302025 301027 300031 299037 298044
      300049 303053 307051 309049 310044 313039 315037 319036
      323037 326035 331031 339031 341033 341037 342041 343045
      341048 338049 332050 329051 328053 325057 330062 334063
      337065 338067 325070 320071 316073 314076 309076 302074
      298072 296070 293066 291064 287064 280065 275066 270063
      266063 265065 265069 266072 269075 270084 271087 276093
      280097 285102 290106 298114 310120 315123 319124 322123
      326112 333114 336119 338124 342129 346132 349131 351129
      363110 364117 362125 364127 365130 361134 357144 356150
      359156 361161 365166 368171 369174 367177 364178 362182
      365187 375195 380200 385205 390208 394212 401219 405224
      406232 409236 413237 417237 419236 422230 426230 428228
      432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343688 335703 332710 329716 321730 316738
      313745 305759 287783 282790 279792 275793 267794 259796
      253800 248806 246809 247814 249817 253817 259817 262819
      268824 270828 269832 267841 270860 270870 269880 268902
      267912 266916 266921 264925 264931 261939 259945 258956
      257960 257966 257968 261965 264963 270962 274958 280943
      283936 283933 285932 288933 299933 301931 301924 303920
      303915 303903 307886 309878 308875 308871 310860 313852
      315847 316846 317849 319852 323851 326845 328837 330827
      331823 336821 342816 344807 345801 346796 349789 353773
      357757 360747 362743 364738 368721 371684 372670 369665
      365662
 0.25 490932 490925 490920 488912 486904 482899 473873 473861
      471859 470856 471840 471836 468834 463832 462827 463819
      466812 466804 464796 461791 458788 456788 452792 446800
      432841 432846 432849 430857 428864 430873 429879 427886
      418893 414897 412899 411903 411912 413920 405925 404931
      404936 405940 408946 410948 414948 418945 418935 419930
      421931 423937 426937 430936 433932 438926 439929 439935
      441942 444948 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442921
      442916 444912 449909 455908 457901 456896 457888 472907
      475913 477919 482932 484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
      527161 526161 527161
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064 359071
      362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089 382088
      384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357715 354709 350713 347719 343723 339727
      335730 330735 322744 315753 304773 291794 286798 280799
      268799 260801 254803 252808 257811 263812 268814 279812
      284813 281818 277823 275828 272841 272846 274853 278884
      277912 282915 286912 289905 290899 291891 293885 297874
      302861 306850 309838 313826 315818 319813 323809 326804
      336784 342771 347760 355737 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321099 318095 316092 311090 307093 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      376080 377080 379078
 0.50 351729 349725 345725 339731 334736 329742 318755 310769
      301783 298792 297796 300800 303811 305815 306818 305819
      300821 298820 295819 292820 286821 283823 279827 278830
      275838 274844 276848 278858 282867 285873 289872 292870
      300854 303846 305838 306831 307828 309824 308820 312813
      317808 322801 326793 334778 341763 345755 347747 350736
      351729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306787 308791 309794 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 289824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 011844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FLORIDA AND ADJACENT STATES...

IT IS A WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND WIDE ZONE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.25
INCHES ON AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION / FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH PROMOTES A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AND REPLENISHMENT OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS CONCERN OVER HEFTY RAIN RATES. EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS...HOWEVER...MAKES THE
EVENT A LITTLE LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LAND...CAUGHT UP IN MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE WESTERN RING OF OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE INFLOW...PLACING QPF MAXIMA
GENERALLY OFFSHORE. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND URBAN FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR LONGER LASTING
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIMITED TO THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH CONVECTION FEEDING OFF THE LARGER
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE CAPE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINS IS GREATEST ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
TAMPA BAY THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO SAINT MARKS. THIS IS WHERE THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHOW SLIGHT
DEEPENING...WITH MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION HELPING TO
SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN IN SPITE OF OUTFLOWS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER DIURNAL ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN SC TO SOUTHERN GA EACH DAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAD
FAILED TO PUSH TO THE COAST. WPC QPF HAD THIS REGION HANDLED
WELL...AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...INCORPORATING THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND NMM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

THE REGION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND UP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
MOISTURE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ASCENT STRETCHED ACROSS A
BACKGROUND OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT. JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS...THE AXIS FROM EASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO SHOULD BE ACTIVE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH ADVECTION ON THE 310 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STANDING 250 MB JET STREAK. ANOTHER
ACTIVE AXIS SHOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE SHARPENS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
ENTER NORTHERN ND/MN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A THIRD RELATIVE
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
MOISTURE QUALITY AND RAPID MOVEMENT WOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY IN THE AREAL AVERAGE QPF. THE MODEL SIGNALS SHOW
SIMILARITIES...BUT HAVE A NUMBER OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DISPARITIES...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE
12Z HI-RES MODELS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN IOWA
WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MAXIMIZED THERE. WPC SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE TO SOME RESPECT...AS THE 310 K UPGLIDE MAY
INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND RESULT IN A PRECIP AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM CONEST...WRF-NMM...AND UKMET TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOCAL
AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE VALUES THAT THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE
DOWNPOURS SETTING UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. FOR
QPF...THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR AXIS OVER AZ/NV...AND
ITS QPF LOOKED GOOD. WE USED A BLEND OF 40 PERCENT CONTINUITY WITH
50 PERCENT NAM AND 10 PERCENT GFS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR AREAS EAST INTO CO/NM WE USED A SIMILAR
BLEND...BUT PREFERRED THE NAM CONUS NEST WHICH PICKED OUT MORE
DETAIL OVER COLORADO.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 538191 539177 539167 540153 539145 535136 533128 530119
      529108 528105 525105 524118 523123 522129 520132 516131
      510136 508143 507150 508154 511161 516168 521173 523177
      524182 526190 526197 527199 531194 533191 536191 538191
 0.01 520803 520792 519784 515780 512777 508773 504771 496767
      493766 488767 485770 484772 482770 482763 482756 481747
      478742 474740 470743 466745 462750 450766 427798 423803
      419804 413806 410807 409809 407814 407822 408829 410835
      411842 412847 412852 412856 410861 405870 400878 388895
      385899 385906 388909 394910 399919 399927 397932 394941
      393945 392941 390936 389927 387922 382913 376904 373900
      369896 367893 364893 363896 365900 366909 368916 370920
      374925 377931 383938 389947 392950 392958 392974 391979
      388983 386988 386997 386003 388006 392007 394006 399003
      402999 405994 406988 408987 411989 415991 420992 424992
      428990 434985 442978 449971 456962 459958 461952 463946
      463938 466933 467941 468953 472965 477975 480987 480992
      482994 485998 489002 493003 497002 499996 500990 501981
      501964 500957 499948 498935 496921 495913 494904 497891
      500879 504866 510843 512837 514833 516828 517822 520803
 0.01 464705 464697 461695 456697 453700 450703 448707 445711
      441713 439716 441718 447718 447722 444732 445739 447741
      451740 453735 457727 459716 463708 464705
 0.01 438221 439216 439211 433206 429206 424207 421208 419206
      416200 413195 409190 408184 409175 411158 405146 402144
      399144 395144 390137 390134 392131 401125 406120 409115
      410105 410101 409098 408095 406095 403102 401101 400097
      400093 402090 403082 405077 407070 410066 411054 411049
      410047 407044 409042 413038 421027 421023 420019 417017
      412015 406016 398023 390033 384034 380030 379021 377013
      374007 369004 367001 367999 366992 367988 362984 352979
      341976 336978 333982 329995 329004 331009 328012 318017
      313020 309021 307022 302025 301027 300031 299037 298044
      300049 303053 307051 309049 310044 313039 315037 319036
      323037 326035 331031 339031 341033 341037 342041 343045
      341048 338049 332050 329051 328053 325057 330062 334063
      337065 338067 325070 320071 316073 314076 309076 302074
      298072 296070 293066 291064 287064 280065 275066 270063
      266063 265065 265069 266072 269075 270084 271087 276093
      280097 285102 290106 298114 310120 315123 319124 322123
      326112 333114 336119 338124 342129 346132 349131 351129
      363110 364117 362125 364127 365130 361134 357144 356150
      359156 361161 365166 368171 369174 367177 364178 362182
      365187 375195 380200 385205 390208 394212 401219 405224
      406232 409236 413237 417237 419236 422230 426230 428228
      432227 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 391704 389709
      387712 388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 406717
      409716 413715 416710 417705
 0.01 411970 412968 412966 412963 410962 409963 409966 408968
      408970 408973 408975 408977 410975 410973 410972 411970
 0.01 350672 346681 343688 335703 332710 329716 321730 316738
      313745 305759 287783 282790 279792 275793 267794 259796
      253800 248806 246809 247814 249817 253817 259817 262819
      268824 270828 269832 267841 270860 270870 269880 268902
      267912 266916 266921 264925 264931 261939 259945 258956
      257960 257966 257968 261965 264963 270962 274958 280943
      283936 283933 285932 288933 299933 301931 301924 303920
      303915 303903 307886 309878 308875 308871 310860 313852
      315847 316846 317849 319852 323851 326845 328837 330827
      331823 336821 342816 344807 345801 346796 349789 353773
      357757 360747 362743 364738 368721 371684 372670 369665
      365662
 0.25 490932 490925 490920 488912 486904 482899 473873 473861
      471859 470856 471840 471836 468834 463832 462827 463819
      466812 466804 464796 461791 458788 456788 452792 446800
      432841 432846 432849 430857 428864 430873 429879 427886
      418893 414897 412899 411903 411912 413920 405925 404931
      404936 405940 408946 410948 414948 418945 418935 419930
      421931 423937 426937 430936 433932 438926 439929 439935
      441942 444948 448952 451949 451944 450940 448935 442921
      442916 444912 449909 455908 457901 456896 457888 472907
      475913 477919 482932 484936 487937 490932
 0.25 415227 416224 416222 416220 416217 415216 414215 412216
      411216 411218 411221 411223 411224 411226 412227 414227
      415227
      527161 526161 527161
 0.25 431976 432971 431968 430965 428962 426960 423961 422964
      422968 423973 423975 426978 428978 429978 431976
 0.25 392202 391197 390192 387188 384186 379183 376181 372181
      372186 374190 378193 381195 384198 387201 392202
 0.25 389178 391174 391169 390166 387164 385166 383168 379168
      378166 377169 378171 378176 380178 382179 385181 387180
      389178
 0.25 393062 393059 390057 387057 384058 382063 378065 374057
      371052 370055 370058 366060 361062 359062 357064 359071
      362074 365076 368075 371079 373085 377089 380089 382088
      384081 384073 385067 393062
 0.25 387118 387116 385117 384117 383118 382119 383122 384120
      385120 386118 387118
 0.25 358725 358719 357715 354709 350713 347719 343723 339727
      335730 330735 322744 315753 304773 291794 286798 280799
      268799 260801 254803 252808 257811 263812 268814 279812
      284813 281818 277823 275828 272841 272846 274853 278884
      277912 282915 286912 289905 290899 291891 293885 297874
      302861 306850 309838 313826 315818 319813 323809 326804
      336784 342771 347760 355737 358725
 0.25 366054 365052 365050 363049 362049 361049 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357057 359058 361057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 366034 365027 362023 366019 365012 360009 354011 351014
      350022 352029 352035 353039 357039 362038 366034
 0.25 341098 342096 341093 340092 339091 338091 337092 336093
      336094 337095 338097 338098 340099 341098
 0.25 336086 336084 335084 334084 333086 333087 335087 336086
 0.25 331081 332079 331078 330079 330081 331081
 0.25 323102 321099 318095 316092 311090 307093 305095 305100
      308103 312107 315108 318106 321103 323102
 0.50 458795 456794 455796 454796 454799 453801 454803 455804
      456803 456801 458798 458797 458795
 0.50 458847 457840 456835 454830 451826 448825 445828 444834
      444841 445848 443853 440863 440871 442877 444882 447882
      450879 452874 453864 455857 456854 458847
 0.50 411933 411931 410930 410931 410933 411933
 0.50 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 376069 375066 373066
      371066 371067 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077 374078
      376080 377080 379078
 0.50 351729 349725 345725 339731 334736 329742 318755 310769
      301783 298792 297796 300800 303811 305815 306818 305819
      300821 298820 295819 292820 286821 283823 279827 278830
      275838 274844 276848 278858 282867 285873 289872 292870
      300854 303846 305838 306831 307828 309824 308820 312813
      317808 322801 326793 334778 341763 345755 347747 350736
      351729
 0.50 361067 360066 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 361067
 0.50 284806 284804 283804 281803 280803 278803 276803 274803
      272804 270804 269805 268806 268808 268810 269812 271812
      273811 275809 276809 278808 280808 282807 284806 284806
 1.00 343744 342738 340737 336741 330745 327750 319761 316766
      313771 307784 306787 308791 309794 310799 311801 314800
      319796 326786 331774 337761 340755 342748 343744
 1.00 302831 301827 298824 294823 289824 284829 280838 279846
      280856 286861 290863 293860 296853 300844 302834 302831
 1.50 338747 334746 332748 327755 324760 320766 315772 314779
      314783 318785 321785 323784 326775 329769 332761 335755
      337747 338747
 1.50 301834 299827 294825 289827 285831 282837 281844 282852
      286856 290858 293853 296847 298842 300836 301834
 2.00 299836 299830 296827 291827 287829 285833 284837 283844
      283848 283852 287855 291852 292849 294845 297840 299837
      299836
 3.00 299832 296829 293828 289829 287833 286837 285844 286850
      289849 291845 294842 296838 299834 299832
 4.00 298834 297832 297831 295830 293829 291830 290831 289832
      289833 288835 288837 288839 289841 290843 292842 292841
      294840 295838 297836 298834
 5.00 295836 296834 296832 295831 293831 291832 291833 290835
      291837 292838 293838 295837 295836

$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 011838
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011853
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011838
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011853
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
138 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011828
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
128 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011843
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
128 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011818
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011833
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011818
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011833
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011808
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
108 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011823
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
108 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011804
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011819
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011804
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011819
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011802
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011817
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011802
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011817
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011748
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011803
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011748
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011803
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011738
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011753
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.11 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011728
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011743
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.09 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011728
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011743
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.09 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011718
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011733
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011718
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011733
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011708
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011723
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011708
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011723
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011704
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011719
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011704
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011719
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011703
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011717
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011703
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011717
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1202 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011648
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011703
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1148 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011640
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011653
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011628
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011643
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1128 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011628
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011643
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1128 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011619
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011633
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011619
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011633
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.08 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011608
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011623
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1108 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.05 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011604
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011619
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.03 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011604
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011619
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.24 inches,
Paducah 2.03 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011603
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011617
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.23 inches,
Paducah 1.96 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011548
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011603
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.23 inches,
Paducah 1.75 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011538
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011553
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.23 inches,
Paducah 1.64 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011538
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011553
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.23 inches,
Paducah 1.64 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011528
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011543
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.21 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011518
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1018 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011533
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1018 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.14 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011509
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1008 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011523
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1008 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.05 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011504
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011519
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 2.01 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011502
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011517
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.94 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
FOUS30 KWBC 011501
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S LEE 30 SE BOW 30 NNE PGD 10 N SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF
45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF 20 ESE TLH 30 E 40J 15 NNW OCF 10 S LEE.


..FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.

...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 011501
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S LEE 30 SE BOW 30 NNE PGD 10 N SRQ 30 WSW PIE 70 SE AAF
45 WSW AAF 25 N AAF 20 ESE TLH 30 E 40J 15 NNW OCF 10 S LEE.


..FL...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN FLORIDA WAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...TO INCLUDE
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND OVER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY HIGH
RAIN RATES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN...RATHER THAN PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESSER
EVENT TOTALS...AS CONVECTION WILL BE PRONE TO FORMING ALONG THE
COAST AND RADIATING OUT...QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PENINSULA...AND PROPAGATING MORE
SLOWLY WEST INTO THE BETTER INFLOW. WHILE THE POSSIBLITY FOR
EXTREME RAIN TOTALS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...REMAINS IN TACT NEAR THE COAST...THE OVERALL EVENT SHOULD
BE CHARACTERIZED MORE BY UNUSUALLY HIGH SHORT TERM RAIN RATES
GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES AT TIMES.

...PREVIOUS FL DISCUSSION...

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON
SEASON PER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR EXTENDED UP
THROUGH A FAIR DEPTH IN SOUNDINGS FROM AZ TO NV...WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
NV NEAR THE CA BORDER...DOWN INTO CENTRAL AZ. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY OUT OF AZ TOWARD
SOUTHERN NV. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE PROFILES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODEL QPF SIGNAL
IS THAT OF AN AVERAGE DAY IN THE WESTERN U.S...WITHOUT MUCH
SPECIFIC FOCUS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z
WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT AGAIN THIS IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE VALUES THAT
THOSE MODELS TYPICALLY GENERATE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE
ON SMALL SCALES AND DEPENDENT ON BRIEFLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS SETTING
UP OVER PLACES THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...AND INFLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
COME FROM DRIER SOURCE REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.

BURKE/HAYES
$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 011448
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
948 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011503
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
948 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.81 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011448
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
948 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011503
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
948 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.81 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011438
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
938 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011453
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
938 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011428
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011443
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
928 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011418
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
918 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011433
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
918 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Paducah 1.54 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011408
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011423
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
908 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011408
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011423
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
908 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011404
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011419
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
904 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011404
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011419
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
904 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011402
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011417
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
902 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011403
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011348
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011403
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
838 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
838 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011338
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
838 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011353
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
838 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011328
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
828 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011343
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
828 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011318
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011333
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
818 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.44 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011308
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011308
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011323
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011304
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
804 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011319
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
804 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011303
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011317
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
802 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Roaring Springs 1.73 inches,
Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
748 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.42 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011248
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011303
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
748 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.42 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.41 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011238
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011253
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.41 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011228
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011243
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.37 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011228
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011243
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.37 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011218
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
718 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.16 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011218
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
718 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011233
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
718 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,
Paducah 1.16 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011208
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011223
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011208
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011223
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011204
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011219
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
704 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011202
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011217
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011148
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011203
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011148
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011203
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.50 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011138
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011153
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011128
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011143
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011128
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011143
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011118
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011133
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
608 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011108
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011123
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
608 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
604 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011105
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011119
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
604 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011103
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
602 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011103
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011117
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
602 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011048
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011103
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011038
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011053
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
538 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011028
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011043
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011018
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
518 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011018
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011033
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
518 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.49 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
508 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
508 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.48 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011008
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
508 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011023
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
508 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.48 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011004
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
504 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011019
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
504 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.48 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011002
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011017
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.48 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 011002
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011017
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.48 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010948
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011003
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.45 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010948
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-011003
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.45 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010938
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010953
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010938
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010953
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.43 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010928
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010943
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
428 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.42 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010918
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010933
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.40 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010908
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010923
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
408 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.38 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010904
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010919
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
404 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.35 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010903
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010917
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
402 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.31 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010903
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010917
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
402 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.31 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN). A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND
THE 00Z WRF ARW/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN
OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS NORTH TX...WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL COMMONALITY
AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR IF A FULL BLOWN
MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE
EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND
AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...AND TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW CELL/CLUSTER
MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHETHER THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND OVER NORTHWEST
FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE WPC QPF. IN ANY
EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
FL.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AS
NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS
AT THE TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS
TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.



DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/OLD
00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PROBLEMS FROM AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS
PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.
 FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.
 THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAGS
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539171 539164 539143 538139 539133 539126 536118
      533114 530114 528116 526121 523129 519132 516132 513133
      510136 508144 507152 510160 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 531185 534186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541921 541915 539903 539886 537877 533872
      529865 525857 511837 504826 503811 498804 492802 487803
      485798 480791 475786 472780 464765 457752 457748 458744
      461740 475716 480709 483703 491685 492677 492674 491670
      489667 486665 480662 475661 470661 461670 454679 447692
      443698 439704 433711 426717 424719 420721 419723 421727
      427729 429733 429738 430743 429747 427754 418766 414778
      408787 408798 410803 412806 415809 418809 424803 429798
      434792 437785 440779 441776 443775 444777 446783 451797
      457808 461816 463822 463826 460829 455835 445847 435859
      428869 426871 425869 423866 420859 415854 411851 408852
      408854 410860 410870 409877 410894 411899 411902 408911
      405919 403921 401919 400915 397915 395917 389915 384918
      381923 380927 382931 384938 389949 393952 395954 396959
      396963 398967 402973 406980 408985 406990 406001 407011
      409019 413024 416025 420025 425023 432014 448993 452988
      456981 463976 466974 468970 469962 468958 468953 465944
      466940 469938 472937 475940 475951 475964 477973 481985
      485989 490991 495987 497983 499978 503972 504967 504958
      499943 497932 497927 500929 502937 505943 510952 520962
      526963 533963 537958 541952 541945 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 489869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 437208 433205 427206 417210 414199 405181
      397165 394153 392148 388143 384140 382134 384129 385120
      384116 385111 388098 391088 390082 390075 388063 388056
      385049 379041 377039 375036 377030 378024 381020 383015
      383010 378988 376984 375981 372980 367978 359978 351981
      345983 341981 333985 327990 321997 320999 317001 313002
      303005 293010 285018 286020 290023 300024 306024 310022
      320020 328027 335034 338036 338039 334045 330047 326051
      325059 326066 326071 325075 323080 318080 312079 307076
      296074 292073 285072 277070 271068 266066 260065 247064
      242064 239065 241076 246082 249087 252089 269103 278107
      283110 289111 298115 305119 315123 319123 325122 329121
      332122 333126 331144 332149 336153 339163 339168 344169
      354169 357173 359176 362187 369195 379202 384206 390206
      395207 399209 410226 412229 417230 426230 434225 438221
 0.01 417705 415693 407696 404694 401695 394701 389709 387713
      388719 389732 392736 396736 401730 405722 407716 409716
      413715 416710 417705
 0.01 345676 340694 333709 319733 315740 313745 310749 301762
      297767 292771 280780 273784 270787 268792 260794 257797
      255801 254804 254809 256812 259813 262814 264817 259823
      269835 269840 268845 268856 270874 270879 269884 265890
      260898 256906 252914 250922 251932 252938 256946 258954
      261957 265956 268952 269947 276931 278925 281924 283927
      286933 290933 294931 297924 301915 304896 307888 311882
      318870 328856 332849 334840 336821 341808 347789 350781
      350777 347775 349768 351762 359748 363740 366730 369721
      370712 370704 371696 373688 372677 372672 370668 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523895 522888 521879 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499850 500854 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      521912 523907 523905
 0.25 492954 493944 493934 491927 489919 485915 482916 481919
      481927 482934 484942 486948 487954 489958 492957 492954
 0.25 472688 471682 469680 465682 463685 460691 456698 451704
      448712 451721 455722 457719 461711 464705 466700 468697
      472691 472688
 0.25 452947 452942 451937 450932 448930 447929 445927 443928
      443933 442937 443942 445945 447947 449949 452947
 0.25 445911 446903 445896 444891 441889 437890 432892 428893
      424893 420893 418896 417901 417905 419910 418914 418922
      419926 423930 426928 432921 435918 440918 442918 444913
      445911
 0.25 424004 425999 425994 422992 419993 417996 416998 415001
      414005 415008 416011 419013 420013 423011 423006 424004
 0.25 418968 419963 417959 416956 416954 414952 410952 409952
      405954 405956 405961 406963 407967 409969 410971 413973
      415973 417970 418968
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388199 388194 387189 384185 381182 376180 371181 366182
      364184 367187 371190 374192 377195 382197 386199 388199
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 369054 366050 359048 354049
      353054 354057 356062 353069 349072 345076 343082 343084
      345087 348086 351088 357090 360090 362087 364085 363080
      365076 370077 372082 373086 376087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 360703 358700 354701 345712 330733 321745
      318750 313756 305765 299777 293790 290798 283801 278803
      274798 269797 263799 259802 259804 263806 267806 276806
      278809 279813 277826 277842 276882 274888 271893 263903
      259909 256917 255926 254930 255935 263939 268933 270929
      274923 275917 277914 282909 289906 296901 294893 296887
      299880 305875 309868 310861 323840 324831 325825 323819
      324813 327807 337782 349753 359729 362720 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 365023 366014 366007 366999 365994 361991 355990 350988
      344988 337989 333993 330997 330001 331005 333008 338019
      341023 345026 353031 357031 361029 365023
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 305090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263084 265086 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 381192 380191 379190 378189 376189 375187 375186 373186
      372186 373187 375187 376189 377192 378192 379192 381193
      381192
 0.50 358718 357711 356710 352710 347717 337731 326746 315759
      309767 304775 301781 298790 296795 296801 294807 290809
      283812 281821 281824 280831 280843 280854 280865 281880
      282884 285888 288886 291883 295876 299866 303864 306860
      307849 307839 312837 315832 316822 317812 318808 322804
      331786 337771 346753 353737 357726 358718
 0.50 361014 358007 356000 354996 352993 346991 339993 337995
      337998 339006 340016 345021 351024 356022 361016 361014
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 264931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347726 344730 340736 329749 323757 319763
      309777 304786 302793 302801 304806 306808 311808 317801
      322795 329779 338763 342754 344746 351729
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295819 293815 288816 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284859 285864 288867 292866 297859 300851
      304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 336745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307796 310801 315799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 293858 296853 298848
      300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287856 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518255 520253 522251 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554133 555124 557117 556111 553107 542105 538107
      535110 530109 528103 523097 518099 516103 515106 514104
      512100 509097 505101 500108 497115 498121 498135 499142
      501147 505152 508155 516163 521172 523178 525185 526192
      526198 529199 533192 537191 539194 538199 537202 536206
      536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194 538191
      538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179 545180
 0.01 515656 508653 499656 482662 478665 476669 474680 473686
      470690 465697 459704 454712 448728 440748 436757 433765
      429774 424783 421790 417797 412805 406814 402822 398830
      390847 385863 385870 384875 384887 384895 385899 387900
      392907 396908 401910 407916 411917 416918 417922 419924
      427928 431931 433931 447916 450914 453918 457918 460915
      467900 476880 482862 485857 487851 488849 491850 493854
      497861 501870 507889 508896 507901 503903 501908 503919
      506921 511921 515921 517924 520934 526939 528944 531947
      540946 544939 546933 545928 547928 547924 548910 547895
      545861 545853 543848 542831 538804 536795 535789 532785
      528775 526772 526767 525757 533739 534733 534726 534719
      533709
 0.01 441224 440218 438212 436206 433202 414197 410192 407187
      418182 434172 438169 438164 437161 435148 433136 431125
      430108 429105 429101 426096 418089 416084 414078 414070
      411064 408051 403042 398034 383017 374011 367003 364000
      359997 355996 358994 363992 366990 367984 368981 364976
      358975 354975 350978 347983 348989 349992 346992 341994
      335997 334003 334010 336018 338022 344028 347032 347040
      343054 331053 326055 330060 334062 341063 341066 338066
      332067 321071 314075 312076 311075 309073 306075 303074
      297072 292064 286064 280065 268065 266067 267070 268074
      275081 279084 280088 283092 283097 285101 287103 291106
      299112 319125 322128 326125 325115 330113 334115 338122
      345131 349131 352126 356121 357118 356115 353110 352108
      355107 360106 363107 363112 364119 362124 364127 365130
      364133 359142 370185 376196 379200 384204 392210 398216
      403220 405226 407234 410238 415237 420235 421230 425227
      430227 435228 439228 441224
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 391705 387704 389696 388693 385696
      376700 370705 361711 353716 350718 344720 339722 336725
      325734 318741 309747 303751 296756 280767 274770 271772
      265771 257768 252769 245770 236771 232773 230776 230787
      231791 234794 246802 249805 247808 245813 249815 258816
      264821 270827 270833 270839 266846 265849 264853 265860
      267864 268876 269898 266920 262937 259945 258957 257962
      257968 263964 268963 272960 276953 279943 283937 283932
      285928 287925 290927 294927 296924 297919 297908 297901
      299896 302887 304877 305869 312849 315840 319832 334802
      353771 362756 365749 369742 376733 377730 382727 385724
      388721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411950 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 388920
      386918 382915 375915 372920 371925 374931 379935 380941
      383947 387951 393953 394959 398965 403967 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 223820 225823 226833 228841 230840 233836 234830
      234825 235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511731 507728 503718 499714 494712 488713 484717
      474722 469731 462738 457744 454750 451755 450762 446771
      440782 431790 425798 421809 418821 417829 415835 413842
      413849 412856 411862 407866 402871 398874 395878 394885
      395893 398897 402899 406903 413903 416903 419907 423912
      427911 430907 430899 426894 425892 426888 430877 434873
      440872 445872 451871 455867 458859 461847 464834 468823
      472812 476807 480802 482801 486796 490787 492778 494773
      502765 506759 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430216 430212 425210 422212 418213 414213 410213 410219
      411223 412226 414227 417225 421224 424222 428219 430216
 0.25 404163 404158 404156 401154 397154 395154 391155 389157
      389160 387164 388167 392169 395170 399169 401167 403165
      404163
 0.25 409110 410102 408097 405101 402106 398108 393108 383110
      379113 376116 373121 371129 372135 375139 379142 384143
      388138 390132 395122 401114 405116 408112 409110
 0.25 401067 399061 397057 393055 387052 383051 379051 379053
      381056 382063 377064 372063 368063 362063 359063 357067
      359070 363071 369077 370084 373092 376099 379098 381096
      387091 389087 388083 386075 389074 392075 397073 401067
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 367717 362717 355722 350725 344727 339729 335732
      322746 316755 311764 306774 302781 298790 297797 299802
      302806 304813 302818 299820 286823 281825 278830 275839
      273850 274863 277877 278892 279896 279899 280902 287895
      291887 294874 297866 302857 304852 305846 308835 311825
      316817 323808 332791 344772 349764 353756 358747 363737
      367729 369723
 0.25 366054 365052 365051 363050 361050 360050 358051 356053
      355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056 365055
      366054
 0.25 367023 366016 363011 362008 358007 353005 349000 344000
      341004 344009 348013 351018 355022 359025 362026 366025
      367023
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 253808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489742 488742 487740 486743 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468769 468761 468756 464756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 452779 445788 439798 432805 429807 428812 427819
      427824 424838 424845 422850 421857 424864 426865 429865
      433862 437858 443857 448860 450860 453855 455847 456813
      459802 463790 467783 470776
 0.50 417891 417884 416879 412876 407875 403878 400880 398885
      399890 402894 404896 410898 411898 415896 417891
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379121 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 383129 384129 386127 388125
      389121 390118
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 339734 335737 331741 320755
      315763 313768 311773 309782 308788 307793 311801 314805
      318806 321803 321797 326790 331782 337773 342767 348759
      352751 356741 360735 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 362018 361016 360014 360013 358013 357014 356015 356016
      356018 358019 359020 361019 362018
 0.50 301840 302835 301829 296825 289824 283827 278833 276840
      276845 277851 280859 284863 288862 291860 296856 300855
      301851 301841 301840
 1.00 297838 297832 295828 291826 287826 284829 281831 280836
      279842 280848 283852 287853 291851 293847 296843 297838
      297838
 1.50 294836 294832 293829 291828 287828 285829 283831 282834
      281838 281842 282846 285848 286848 289846 290844 292842
      293839 294836
 2.00 292837 292832 291830 289829 287829 284831 283833 283838
      283841 283842 285844 287843 290841 291839 292837
 3.00 288837 289835 289833 288831 287831 286833 286834 286835
      286837 286838 288838 288837

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$




000
NZUS99 KLUB 010848
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010903
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
348 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.25 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010838
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010853
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.21 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010838
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010853
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.21 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010828
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010843
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.20 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010818
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010833
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.19 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 010808
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE  BIGGEST DIFFERENCE). A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARM/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL AND NEARBY SOUTHEAST GA.


CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
AS NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FEED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS AT THE
TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.


DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z & 06Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS/OLD 00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS FROM AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW
OF 15-25 KTS IS PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT
SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.  FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAG
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539173 539164 539143 539135 539126 537118 533114
      530114 529115 526121 524128 522131 519132 516131 514133
      510136 508143 507152 510159 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 530184 533186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541916 540909 539906 539891 538882 535875
      528863 525857 520850 512839 503824 503814 502810 499806
      494802 488803 484796 479790 475785 472779 465766 461759
      457748 465734 480708 487694 490686 492678 492671 488665
      477661 471660 467663 465666 455677 439703 435709 430714
      419723 421728 425728 428730 430741 429749 426755 422761
      418767 416774 413781 410784 408787 408794 409801 411805
      414808 417809 419808 424803 429798 434792 437787 439780
      441777 443776 446783 453800 461816 464821 463826 461829
      451840 433861 428868 427870 425867 420853 412842 408842
      405844 407852 409860 410870 407880 408887 412894 413897
      413899 406914 404921 402923 398923 393918 391915 388915
      382920 380926 382934 385943 389949 393953 399970 401974
      401980 401989 403009 405016 409021 414025 421025 426021
      431016 439005 450991 453985 455982 459984 459980 462976
      467973 467969 467963 463958 460957 458958 456955 458951
      461945 465941 466939 470937 474938 475943 475956 476965
      478976 481986 487990 491990 494988 496986 497982 501975
      504969 504957 499943 497932 497928 499928 502936 505942
      508949 513955 517960 520963 524963 532963 538957 540953
      541949 542941 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 490869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 438209 433205 430206 422208 418210 416208
      416205 397165 394154 392149 389144 386142 383138 382133
      384128 385120 384118 384113 386108 387100 391090 391084
      390075 386052 381043 377040 375036 377032 378024 381020
      383015 383008 382002 378988 373981 369978 363978 353979
      348979 342979 336981 333984 326991 321000 309002 301006
      293010 286017 285020 288022 299024 307024 311022 316021
      321021 330029 337035 338038 337041 334045 327050 326055
      326062 325074 324078 322080 316079 309078 304076 294073
      282071 271068 261065 250064 245064 240064 239067 240070
      241076 246083 250087 254091 261097 269103 277107 286111
      296114 305119 317123 327122 330121 332122 333129 331144
      332148 335151 337156 338161 339167 343169 348170 353169
      357172 360177 361183 364189 367194 371197 379202 383205
      389207 392206 398208 410225 412229 418231 428229 434225
      438221
 0.01 425696 424690 423686 420684 417683 409685 404691 395702
      386714 383720 380727 378736 378740 380743 382745 386745
      393743 399738 404732 413720 421709 425696
 0.01 345676 341692 334705 331713 326720 319733 315740 311747
      304759 294769 280780 273784 270787 269791 267793 262793
      257797 253805 254810 256812 264815 259823 259825 262827
      268832 269843 268845 268850 270874 270880 269885 265890
      261897 257904 254911 252918 250921 250927 251933 252938
      255945 258954 261957 265956 267954 269950 270945 271942
      274935 278927 280923 282927 286933 290933 294931 297924
      301916 304901 306892 307888 309884 313877 318870 327857
      331851 333848 333844 335825 336820 337817 341808 359748
      363741 365733 370717 370713 370707 371700 373688 372677
      372672 371669 368664 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523896 522888 521880 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499849 499853 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      520912 522910 523907 523905
 0.25 477684 474678 472677 469678 461686 457691 454696 448707
      445712 443720 440733 441738 443739 447738 449731 453725
      455721 460717 468707 470702 473695 476691 477684
 0.25 452947 452945 452942 451940 451937 451935 450933 449932
      448931 447931 445932 445933 443935 443937 443940 443941
      444942 445944 445945 447947 449949 450949 452947
 0.25 444909 444902 443894 441891 436891 432893 429892 426888
      424883 419876 414877 412880 413886 415890 417893 422895
      425905 426909 429912 434913 440912 444909
 0.25 426997 425988 427978 426969 424965 421962 416957 413949
      409943 405938 402935 398935 396938 396943 398951 400959
      407973 410980 412984 412987 410998 410005 411010 413012
      419015 422014 423011 425999 426997
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388196 388192 386187 383184 379181 374181 370182 366185
      369188 372191 376194 381196 385198 388197 388196
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 370054 366050 360048 356048
      354049 353053 354056 356062 354068 349072 345075 343082
      344087 348086 351088 356090 360090 362087 365076 370077
      372082 373086 375087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 361703 358701 355700 351704 347710 339721
      330733 315753 306763 302770 299777 293789 291795 289798
      287800 281802 278803 276801 273798 270797 263799 259802
      259804 261806 266806 272807 276806 278809 279817 277824
      277842 276878 275886 272892 268897 263903 260908 257915
      255923 254930 255934 257936 263939 267935 270929 274923
      276915 280910 285908 291905 295904 296898 295895 294891
      296887 299881 304876 307871 309869 309864 311857 313854
      316852 320847 323840 324832 325826 324821 323816 326810
      332796 335790 337782 342769 348756 359729 362721 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 368021 370013 369008 368000 367993 364990 359988 348986
      338989 337991 337993 337998 337002 337010 338017 341020
      350026 357031 361030 364027 368021
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 306090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263083 264085 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 412968 413963 412961 410959 409955 407952 405949 404947
      402946 399947 400952 401954 402957 403960 405963 407965
      409968 410970 412968
 0.50 358718 357712 354709 348715 337731 328744 315759 310766
      306772 301781 298790 296801 293808 283812 281821 281824
      280830 280840 280852 280865 280878 281883 283887 287888
      289885 295876 299867 304863 306857 307851 307839 312837
      314834 316829 316824 317813 318808 322804 329789 337771
      346754 353737 356727 358718
 0.50 363012 362005 359002 357998 353993 350991 346990 340993
      339998 340002 342011 345017 351022 357022 361016 363012
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 263931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347725 344729 340736 329749 324756 319763
      309777 305784 303789 302793 302800 303805 306808 308809
      311808 322795 329779 338763 341755 344746 351729
 1.00 352011 352009 352007 352004 351002 350000 349999 348998
      346998 345000 345002 346003 346004 346006 347009 349011
      351012 352011
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295820 293815 288815 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284858 285864 288867 292866 297859 299855
      300851 304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 337745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307794 310801 314799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 291860 293858 296853
      298848 300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287855 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518257 520255 522253 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554132 555123 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 526102 526099 522096 518099 516103
      514104 511100 509097 505101 500108 499112 497115 498121
      498136 499143 501147 505152 509156 516163 521173 523178
      525185 526191 526198 529198 533192 537191 539195 538200
      536205 536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194
      538191 538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179
      545180
 0.01 515656 508654 500655 480662 476669 474679 473685 471690
      465697 455711 450720 446729 444733 440734 435736 432739
      430743 429750 424756 422779 418780 415785 411795 408803
      403810 394826 389833 386840 383852 382863 382876 383888
      385900 389901 392904 419924 433931 445919 448916 451915
      453918 457918 460915 462910 465905 467900 482864 485856
      487851 488849 491850 495858 500869 504880 507889 508899
      502904 501910 502914 503919 506921 515921 519933 526939
      530947 537948 542941 547928 547914 547896 546867 545852
      543848 543844 543836 538811 537797 536794 535791 532786
      528775 526770 525763 525755 524752 526749 532744 533736
      534733 534727 534720 533709
 0.01 439214 439208 437202 434198 430192 424190 420192 417199
      413195 410191 409186 417183 426177 434172 438169 438162
      436156 435148 431118 429103 427098 423094 417086 415080
      414073 408049 401039 398032 395027 389026 385023 380020
      377016 371008 367003 364000 359997 356996 357994 362992
      366990 368983 365977 355974 351976 348980 347987 349991
      342992 336989 330995 324002 325006 329010 334014 336019
      340025 344028 347032 347041 346050 344054 341054 335053
      329054 327055 330060 333062 339063 341065 339066 333067
      321071 317074 312076 309072 306075 297071 293067 292064
      288064 277064 272065 269065 266067 269075 277082 283093
      284100 288104 295109 305117 314121 322128 324126 326122
      325115 329113 333113 335115 337121 343130 347132 351130
      357118 355112 352108 357107 363106 363120 362125 365128
      364132 358143 356148 357154 360159 365164 368169 369171
      368175 368181 370185 376195 378199 383203 393211 401219
      405225 405231 408235 412237 418237 421233 422229 424227
      427225 439214
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 392704 387705 389695 386694 382697
      376701 366707 360712 353716 337724 330730 323736 317741
      311746 307749 303751 296756 282767 272770 268773 264771
      256768 246770 240770 235771 232773 230776 230786 233794
      248802 248806 246809 245813 248814 258815 264821 269826
      270831 270838 267847 265850 265857 267868 269877 269898
      266918 264929 261939 258947 258959 256963 257968 263964
      271961 274958 276954 279944 283936 287927 294927 297923
      297918 297908 298902 300898 303889 307882 311872 326840
      330833 333824 337814 341806 349790 356775 372741 376734
      378730 382727 385724 387721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411949 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 387920
      386918 382914 375915 372921 371925 374932 379935 380941
      383947 388951 393953 395960 398965 404966 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 225823 226833 228841 230839 233836 234830 234825
      235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511732 508728 501716 498713 494712 487713 482718
      476718 472722 471731 468736 465740 461741 457744 455749
      451754 447756 442752 437752 431778 425788 419799 415809
      412824 410837 409844 409854 408860 405866 397874 394878
      392885 394892 397897 406904 412904 419904 422903 424906
      426911 430915 433914 434909 432900 430896 431881 433876
      438873 445872 451870 454865 456858 460847 463833 468819
      468814 469811 475808 479804 485798 490785 494774 497770
      502765 505760 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430209 429205 426205 421207 419209 418213 415212 410213
      409218 410221 412227 415227 417225 418220 419216 421216
      426213 430209
 0.25 409110 410104 409099 406098 404102 402105 399108 395107
      391108 383110 378114 373122 372127 372134 380148 384155
      386164 388167 393169 397169 398164 400160 400155 399151
      396147 391141 391136 392130 395121 400115 406115 409110
 0.25 403070 403065 401061 397055 392048 390044 387045 384048
      378047 375049 376053 379056 381060 380063 378064 375063
      370062 367064 360063 357066 359070 364072 367074 369077
      370083 373091 375098 379098 381097 387091 389086 388081
      386077 389077 390081 393084 396086 398082 402074 403070
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 368717 366716 363716 354723 350725 343727 339729
      335732 328740 321748 316755 311764 307773 301783 297791
      297796 299802 302806 304812 303816 302818 297821 286823
      282825 279830 276840 274851 275864 275869 277877 278898
      280903 282902 284900 289893 294884 298873 302865 305861
      307854 312832 316823 322814 332796 341779 352760 360742
      366731 369723
 0.25 366054 366052 365050 364050 363050 361050 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056
      365055 366054
 0.25 362016 361012 359007 356003 353000 349999 344998 340001
      339006 341010 343015 347017 350019 356020 361018 362016
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 339099 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 254808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489743 488742 487741 486742 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468770 468761 468756 465756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 451779 445788 442792 439794 435793 430795 426800
      424813 423819 422827 419839 418846 419853 420858 424864
      429865 432860 433854 432852 434851 438854 440855 444854
      447850 449843 454816 458804 462792 467784 470776
 0.50 423893 423888 422885 418881 414877 409874 403876 398879
      395885 398892 402896 406899 413900 419898 423893
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379122 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 384129 386126 388125 389121
      390118
 0.50 393064 394062 394059 393058 392057 391056 390055 388054
      386056 385058 384061 384063 386063 387063 389063 390063
      391064 393064 393064
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 338735 331741 320755 315763
      311773 309783 307793 309797 311802 314806 318807 322805
      323798 327790 332781 337773 343767 348759 352750 356741
      360734 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 354011 354009 353007 353006 351004 349003 349002 347002
      346002 345002 344004 344005 344006 345008 345009 347011
      349013 351013 352014 353013 354011 354011
 0.50 303844 304839 304833 302828 300827 292824 285827 281834
      279842 278850 281858 286863 291863 294862 299857 302855
      303850 303844
 1.00 414891 414889 413886 411884 409884 407884 407885 406886
      406887 406889 407892 408893 409894 410894 411894 413894
      413893 414891
 1.00 299840 299834 297830 294828 289829 287831 285835 283840
      282844 282850 285854 289854 293853 297851 299847 299841
      299840
 1.50 297838 297834 296832 294830 291830 289831 288833 286836
      285839 284842 284846 285850 287850 291850 292849 294847
      296844 297840 297838
 2.00 296838 296836 296834 295833 294832 293831 291831 289832
      289833 288835 288836 287837 287839 286841 286843 286846
      287846 289846 290847 292846 294845 295843 295841 295840
      296838
 3.00 293839 292837 292836 291837 291839 292840 293839

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$




000
FXUS04 KWBC 010808
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE  BIGGEST DIFFERENCE). A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARM/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL AND NEARBY SOUTHEAST GA.


CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
AS NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FEED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS AT THE
TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.


DAYS 2/3...

THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 00Z & 06Z WPC QPF/12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z
GFS/OLD 00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST PATTERN WISE.  ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/NV EARLY ON COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS FROM AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS 700 HPA INFLOW
OF 15-25 KTS IS PROGGED WHICH COULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION -- IT
SHOULD NOT BE PULSE.  FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS.


GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A VARIETY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.  THE 06Z/12Z WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO
A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF/00Z WPC QPF ACROSS IL/MI --
STILL BELIEVE MI AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXTREME AS COMPLEXES
UPSTREAM SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTERCEPT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DID NUDGE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED BY
ONE-THIRD ACROSS MI.  ACROSS THE MIDWEST (NE/IA) MONDAY, LIKED THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
(DESPITE POSSIBLE MASS FIELD ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A 700 HPA
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE 00Z GFS) AS CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EDGE OF THE CAP.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS.


NORTHERN TX/OK/KS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOWED THE THOUGHTS OF THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE MUCH WETTER 00Z GFS NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER
JUNCTION ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE, USE OF THE 18Z GFS MASS FIELDS AND
THE 31/00Z GEFS-BASED REFORECAST LED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESEMBLES
THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TX/WESTERN OK.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AS
SOILS HAVE SATURATED AND COULD FURTHER SATURATE IN THE MEANTIME.
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES AND REMAIN FORWARD
PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF OK.


NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IN THIS REGION TO COME
UP WITH THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WHICH SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION FROM
00Z AND 06Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  ON MONDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (PER THE 00Z GFS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (PER THE 21Z
SREF MEAN) ALONG WITH THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT.


SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF LOOKED REASONABLE IN THIS
REGION.  VARIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO SPIN UP CONVECTIVE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH DRAG
HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-7" REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS (06Z-15Z), SO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE INCLUDED ON
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS EACH DAY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2.5-3" AN HOUR RANGE, WHICH
SHORT SEGMENTS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD ACCOMPLISH.  LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE 21Z SREF MEAN LOOKS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS INLAND
ACROSS SC/NC, SO BELIEVE THE PROBABILISTIC QPF IS ALSO OVERDONE IN
THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/ROTH

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539173 539164 539143 539135 539126 537118 533114
      530114 529115 526121 524128 522131 519132 516131 514133
      510136 508143 507152 510159 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 530184 533186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541916 540909 539906 539891 538882 535875
      528863 525857 520850 512839 503824 503814 502810 499806
      494802 488803 484796 479790 475785 472779 465766 461759
      457748 465734 480708 487694 490686 492678 492671 488665
      477661 471660 467663 465666 455677 439703 435709 430714
      419723 421728 425728 428730 430741 429749 426755 422761
      418767 416774 413781 410784 408787 408794 409801 411805
      414808 417809 419808 424803 429798 434792 437787 439780
      441777 443776 446783 453800 461816 464821 463826 461829
      451840 433861 428868 427870 425867 420853 412842 408842
      405844 407852 409860 410870 407880 408887 412894 413897
      413899 406914 404921 402923 398923 393918 391915 388915
      382920 380926 382934 385943 389949 393953 399970 401974
      401980 401989 403009 405016 409021 414025 421025 426021
      431016 439005 450991 453985 455982 459984 459980 462976
      467973 467969 467963 463958 460957 458958 456955 458951
      461945 465941 466939 470937 474938 475943 475956 476965
      478976 481986 487990 491990 494988 496986 497982 501975
      504969 504957 499943 497932 497928 499928 502936 505942
      508949 513955 517960 520963 524963 532963 538957 540953
      541949 542941 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 490869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 438209 433205 430206 422208 418210 416208
      416205 397165 394154 392149 389144 386142 383138 382133
      384128 385120 384118 384113 386108 387100 391090 391084
      390075 386052 381043 377040 375036 377032 378024 381020
      383015 383008 382002 378988 373981 369978 363978 353979
      348979 342979 336981 333984 326991 321000 309002 301006
      293010 286017 285020 288022 299024 307024 311022 316021
      321021 330029 337035 338038 337041 334045 327050 326055
      326062 325074 324078 322080 316079 309078 304076 294073
      282071 271068 261065 250064 245064 240064 239067 240070
      241076 246083 250087 254091 261097 269103 277107 286111
      296114 305119 317123 327122 330121 332122 333129 331144
      332148 335151 337156 338161 339167 343169 348170 353169
      357172 360177 361183 364189 367194 371197 379202 383205
      389207 392206 398208 410225 412229 418231 428229 434225
      438221
 0.01 425696 424690 423686 420684 417683 409685 404691 395702
      386714 383720 380727 378736 378740 380743 382745 386745
      393743 399738 404732 413720 421709 425696
 0.01 345676 341692 334705 331713 326720 319733 315740 311747
      304759 294769 280780 273784 270787 269791 267793 262793
      257797 253805 254810 256812 264815 259823 259825 262827
      268832 269843 268845 268850 270874 270880 269885 265890
      261897 257904 254911 252918 250921 250927 251933 252938
      255945 258954 261957 265956 267954 269950 270945 271942
      274935 278927 280923 282927 286933 290933 294931 297924
      301916 304901 306892 307888 309884 313877 318870 327857
      331851 333848 333844 335825 336820 337817 341808 359748
      363741 365733 370717 370713 370707 371700 373688 372677
      372672 371669 368664 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523896 522888 521880 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499849 499853 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      520912 522910 523907 523905
 0.25 477684 474678 472677 469678 461686 457691 454696 448707
      445712 443720 440733 441738 443739 447738 449731 453725
      455721 460717 468707 470702 473695 476691 477684
 0.25 452947 452945 452942 451940 451937 451935 450933 449932
      448931 447931 445932 445933 443935 443937 443940 443941
      444942 445944 445945 447947 449949 450949 452947
 0.25 444909 444902 443894 441891 436891 432893 429892 426888
      424883 419876 414877 412880 413886 415890 417893 422895
      425905 426909 429912 434913 440912 444909
 0.25 426997 425988 427978 426969 424965 421962 416957 413949
      409943 405938 402935 398935 396938 396943 398951 400959
      407973 410980 412984 412987 410998 410005 411010 413012
      419015 422014 423011 425999 426997
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388196 388192 386187 383184 379181 374181 370182 366185
      369188 372191 376194 381196 385198 388197 388196
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 370054 366050 360048 356048
      354049 353053 354056 356062 354068 349072 345075 343082
      344087 348086 351088 356090 360090 362087 365076 370077
      372082 373086 375087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 361703 358701 355700 351704 347710 339721
      330733 315753 306763 302770 299777 293789 291795 289798
      287800 281802 278803 276801 273798 270797 263799 259802
      259804 261806 266806 272807 276806 278809 279817 277824
      277842 276878 275886 272892 268897 263903 260908 257915
      255923 254930 255934 257936 263939 267935 270929 274923
      276915 280910 285908 291905 295904 296898 295895 294891
      296887 299881 304876 307871 309869 309864 311857 313854
      316852 320847 323840 324832 325826 324821 323816 326810
      332796 335790 337782 342769 348756 359729 362721 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 368021 370013 369008 368000 367993 364990 359988 348986
      338989 337991 337993 337998 337002 337010 338017 341020
      350026 357031 361030 364027 368021
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 306090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263083 264085 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 412968 413963 412961 410959 409955 407952 405949 404947
      402946 399947 400952 401954 402957 403960 405963 407965
      409968 410970 412968
 0.50 358718 357712 354709 348715 337731 328744 315759 310766
      306772 301781 298790 296801 293808 283812 281821 281824
      280830 280840 280852 280865 280878 281883 283887 287888
      289885 295876 299867 304863 306857 307851 307839 312837
      314834 316829 316824 317813 318808 322804 329789 337771
      346754 353737 356727 358718
 0.50 363012 362005 359002 357998 353993 350991 346990 340993
      339998 340002 342011 345017 351022 357022 361016 363012
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 263931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347725 344729 340736 329749 324756 319763
      309777 305784 303789 302793 302800 303805 306808 308809
      311808 322795 329779 338763 341755 344746 351729
 1.00 352011 352009 352007 352004 351002 350000 349999 348998
      346998 345000 345002 346003 346004 346006 347009 349011
      351012 352011
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295820 293815 288815 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284858 285864 288867 292866 297859 299855
      300851 304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 337745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307794 310801 314799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 291860 293858 296853
      298848 300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287855 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 502317 501314 502312 503312 504310 505310 516281 515278
513277 512274 511270 512265 512260
      514258 516257 518257 520255 522253 524249 526247 526244
      528242 530240
 0.01 553146 554132 555123 557117 556111 553107 542105 538106
      535110 530109 528103 526102 526099 522096 518099 516103
      514104 511100 509097 505101 500108 499112 497115 498121
      498136 499143 501147 505152 509156 516163 521173 523178
      525185 526191 526198 529198 533192 537191 539195 538200
      536205 536209 537212 537215 544190 543190 541192 539194
      538191 538188 539186 540184 541181 541178 542176 544179
      545180
 0.01 515656 508654 500655 480662 476669 474679 473685 471690
      465697 455711 450720 446729 444733 440734 435736 432739
      430743 429750 424756 422779 418780 415785 411795 408803
      403810 394826 389833 386840 383852 382863 382876 383888
      385900 389901 392904 419924 433931 445919 448916 451915
      453918 457918 460915 462910 465905 467900 482864 485856
      487851 488849 491850 495858 500869 504880 507889 508899
      502904 501910 502914 503919 506921 515921 519933 526939
      530947 537948 542941 547928 547914 547896 546867 545852
      543848 543844 543836 538811 537797 536794 535791 532786
      528775 526770 525763 525755 524752 526749 532744 533736
      534733 534727 534720 533709
 0.01 439214 439208 437202 434198 430192 424190 420192 417199
      413195 410191 409186 417183 426177 434172 438169 438162
      436156 435148 431118 429103 427098 423094 417086 415080
      414073 408049 401039 398032 395027 389026 385023 380020
      377016 371008 367003 364000 359997 356996 357994 362992
      366990 368983 365977 355974 351976 348980 347987 349991
      342992 336989 330995 324002 325006 329010 334014 336019
      340025 344028 347032 347041 346050 344054 341054 335053
      329054 327055 330060 333062 339063 341065 339066 333067
      321071 317074 312076 309072 306075 297071 293067 292064
      288064 277064 272065 269065 266067 269075 277082 283093
      284100 288104 295109 305117 314121 322128 324126 326122
      325115 329113 333113 335115 337121 343130 347132 351130
      357118 355112 352108 357107 363106 363120 362125 365128
      364132 358143 356148 357154 360159 365164 368169 369171
      368175 368181 370185 376195 378199 383203 393211 401219
      405225 405231 408235 412237 418237 421233 422229 424227
      427225 439214
 0.01 397703 395699 393701 392704 387705 389695 386694 382697
      376701 366707 360712 353716 337724 330730 323736 317741
      311746 307749 303751 296756 282767 272770 268773 264771
      256768 246770 240770 235771 232773 230776 230786 233794
      248802 248806 246809 245813 248814 258815 264821 269826
      270831 270838 267847 265850 265857 267868 269877 269898
      266918 264929 261939 258947 258959 256963 257968 263964
      271961 274958 276954 279944 283936 287927 294927 297923
      297918 297908 298902 300898 303889 307882 311872 326840
      330833 333824 337814 341806 349790 356775 372741 376734
      378730 382727 385724 387721 390711 397703
 0.01 411959 411949 409944 403933 400928 396924 391921 387920
      386918 382914 375915 372921 371925 374932 379935 380941
      383947 388951 393953 395960 398965 404966 409964 411959
 0.01 242004 244000 242996 242994 240992 238989 235989 233989
      231991 231995 233997 233999 235002 236003 240004 242004
 0.01 235820 234810 232802 229795 225791 221791 221796 222805
      223815 225823 226833 228841 230839 233836 234830 234825
      235820 235820
 0.25 512741 511732 508728 501716 498713 494712 487713 482718
      476718 472722 471731 468736 465740 461741 457744 455749
      451754 447756 442752 437752 431778 425788 419799 415809
      412824 410837 409844 409854 408860 405866 397874 394878
      392885 394892 397897 406904 412904 419904 422903 424906
      426911 430915 433914 434909 432900 430896 431881 433876
      438873 445872 451870 454865 456858 460847 463833 468819
      468814 469811 475808 479804 485798 490785 494774 497770
      502765 505760 508753 511747 512741
 0.25 430209 429205 426205 421207 419209 418213 415212 410213
      409218 410221 412227 415227 417225 418220 419216 421216
      426213 430209
 0.25 409110 410104 409099 406098 404102 402105 399108 395107
      391108 383110 378114 373122 372127 372134 380148 384155
      386164 388167 393169 397169 398164 400160 400155 399151
      396147 391141 391136 392130 395121 400115 406115 409110
 0.25 403070 403065 401061 397055 392048 390044 387045 384048
      378047 375049 376053 379056 381060 380063 378064 375063
      370062 367064 360063 357066 359070 364072 367074 369077
      370083 373091 375098 379098 381097 387091 389086 388081
      386077 389077 390081 393084 396086 398082 402074 403070
 0.25 400949 400948 400947 398946 396947 396949 396951 397952
      398953 400952 400951 400949
 0.25 395936 395933 393932 391932 389933 389934 388936 388938
      389940 391941 393941 393940 395938 395936
 0.25 369723 368717 366716 363716 354723 350725 343727 339729
      335732 328740 321748 316755 311764 307773 301783 297791
      297796 299802 302806 304812 303816 302818 297821 286823
      282825 279830 276840 274851 275864 275869 277877 278898
      280903 282902 284900 289893 294884 298873 302865 305861
      307854 312832 316823 322814 332796 341779 352760 360742
      366731 369723
 0.25 366054 366052 365050 364050 363050 361050 360050 358051
      356053 355055 356056 357058 359058 361058 363057 363056
      365055 366054
 0.25 362016 361012 359007 356003 353000 349999 344998 340001
      339006 341010 343015 347017 350019 356020 361018 362016
 0.25 342096 341091 339088 337083 334080 331077 329077 329081
      332085 333088 335093 337097 339099 341098 342096
 0.25 282809 281804 276803 273801 268800 265800 261801 256803
      253806 254808 256808 260807 265806 271805 274806 278808
      282809 282809
 0.25 258783 257779 253777 247776 242778 239781 236784 238789
      240791 244793 249794 253791 256787 257784 258783
 0.50 489744 489743 488742 487741 486742 486745 487747 487748
      488747 489745 489744
 0.50 470776 468770 468761 468756 465756 463758 459763 457768
      455774 451779 445788 442792 439794 435793 430795 426800
      424813 423819 422827 419839 418846 419853 420858 424864
      429865 432860 433854 432852 434851 438854 440855 444854
      447850 449843 454816 458804 462792 467784 470776
 0.50 423893 423888 422885 418881 414877 409874 403876 398879
      395885 398892 402896 406899 413900 419898 423893
 0.50 407105 407103 406105 407105 407105
 0.50 390118 390115 387115 385116 382117 380119 379122 377125
      376128 377128 380127 382126 384129 386126 388125 389121
      390118
 0.50 393064 394062 394059 393058 392057 391056 390055 388054
      386056 385058 384061 384063 386063 387063 389063 390063
      391064 393064 393064
 0.50 380078 380076 379075 379074 378072 378071 376069 375067
      373067 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077 374080
      375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.50 363729 362724 358727 350732 338735 331741 320755 315763
      311773 309783 307793 309797 311802 314806 318807 322805
      323798 327790 332781 337773 343767 348759 352750 356741
      360734 363729
 0.50 360067 360065 359064 358065 359066 360067 360067
 0.50 354011 354009 353007 353006 351004 349003 349002 347002
      346002 345002 344004 344005 344006 345008 345009 347011
      349013 351013 352014 353013 354011 354011
 0.50 303844 304839 304833 302828 300827 292824 285827 281834
      279842 278850 281858 286863 291863 294862 299857 302855
      303850 303844
 1.00 414891 414889 413886 411884 409884 407884 407885 406886
      406887 406889 407892 408893 409894 410894 411894 413894
      413893 414891
 1.00 299840 299834 297830 294828 289829 287831 285835 283840
      282844 282850 285854 289854 293853 297851 299847 299841
      299840
 1.50 297838 297834 296832 294830 291830 289831 288833 286836
      285839 284842 284846 285850 287850 291850 292849 294847
      296844 297840 297838
 2.00 296838 296836 296834 295833 294832 293831 291831 289832
      289833 288835 288836 287837 287839 286841 286843 286846
      287846 289846 290847 292846 294845 295843 295841 295840
      296838
 3.00 293839 292837 292836 291837 291839 292840 293839

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 514286 511282 512278 512273 506271 505253 503247 500243
      501238 504235 508213 511208 512204 511200 511194 511191
      509190 502192 499195 494197 491189 489183 486179 480171
      477167 476164 477156 480153 485155 490156 493154 491150
      487146 485142 480140 472142 470148 469155 462159 459162
      459165 461172 463173 464178 461182 457184 454186 451190
      447200 446206 448209 451217 454221 451223 442225 439226
      436228 430232 422236 416234 413231 414226 414222 413218
      414212 416207 417199 417194 422188 423181 425178 428173
      430171 432172 437174 440178 444180 448180 451179 450173
      452168 450164 444160 439154 437152 436147 435141 436135
      441127 442120 439119 438120 432126 427132 423140 419149
      415159 410169 407181 406184 404184 402181 400176 396174
      389178 385180 383177 380169 374164 371159 368156 361150
      359146 353145 345146 328147 324145 320141 318132 324126
      332123 336121 340121 341115 344111 348111 351113 361117
      366118 368119 370118 377116 382115 386112 391105 394103
      399102 401102 402099 403095 400092 396090 391083 386079
      386074 390064 391061 388059 385058 375055 366054 363054
      359056 357058 355053 355049 356047 358046 360043 359036
      357033 351029 343033 339037 340043 340049 339054 344059
      329063 320066 317066 316068 315074 313077 312081 318089
      329100 326109 321110 320116 314116 307111 302110 298107
      291101 284096 276093 270088 264083 259077 254072 248066
      244062 242057 251059 262060 267060 271058 279054 285051
      291045 294042 293037 297035 300032 302029 305029 306031
      311037 312041 315044 324044 327042 331039 332032 333029
      337019 340006 338986 341977 346967 358960 362958 366958
      369961 370964 373970 376974 383979 387987 391993 399008
      419043 420048 424048 429042
 0.01 429042 429039 432040 438040 439045 436050 434050 433053
      437057 440060 444065 450075 453080 455086 457091 461095
      464095 465092 468087 477084 490086 498090 502090 504093
      507094 524107 528109 533113 541121 544119 542113 541110
      542106 543098 543092 545091 549093 552094 555102 556108
      556114 557116 558112 559106
 0.01 499619 495624 491628 489631 484644 476656 471664 466669
      459677 455678 452681 448686 443693 439699 436705 432712
      429717 420731 417736 413742 396767 395776 392782 385787
      378791 372796 365800 355808 350813 346819 343825 342827
      342832 341836 342838 346840 348839 356836 362832 364834
      362836 361838 361842 363845 365847 368845 373840 379835
      384834 387836 389838 391842 393846 393851 381861 380868
      380878 384884 388888 393890 394896 394908 393934 394940
      396944 397947 396951 398957 402961 412972 413013 416015
      420016 423015 425012 433997 434993 435987 434977 433965
      431958 429950 424943 421938 418934 416933 413930 410926
      409923 409916 410898 410891 411885 411872 410868 412863
      411854 411852 413850 417849 419847 420844 422833 426827
      430820 433813 435809 435804 439797 451787 459786 462787
      463791 465794 464797 462805 460810 460816 458822 460830
      465835 469835 473833 476835 473856 474863 476866 476870
      479872 479875 481877 487881 491889 494896 497898 500896
      503891 505890 502908 504911 504917 506925 512941 518944
      524949 534960 539968 541973 540976 538979 534979 537981
      539982 544982 544979 542976 544974 545971 546965 547960
      550952 553947 553941 552939 548929 548922 548915 548908
      547905 547901 548898 551894 551888 552884 552878 550875
      546872 544870 542871 540874 539866 537859 536855 535848
      535838 535832 533825 531803 530797 531793 532782 534771
      534765 535761 537749 537744 538740 535716
 0.01 506306 505303 504299 502297 499296 495296 493297 492300
      493303 495306 497308 500309 502308 504308 506306
 0.01 523157 523155 522153 521152 519154 519157 520158 522158
      523157
 0.01 501752 502749 501747 497748 494749 491751 490754 488757
      487760 487763 489762 490762 493759 495758 498755 500755
      501752
 0.01 478770 476770 474770 473771 471769 470771 470774 470776
      472778 472781 472778 473775 475778 473775 475773 476772
      478770 478770
 0.01 432655 424655 419656 417659 413667 409664 404666 387677
      377692 365706 351719 342724 335729 327734 323736 320741
      311755 305763 299769 284778 273776 262778 256779 252781
      248782 244784 240786 237789 235800 234802 237806 244811
      250816 253826 253831 253836 255838 259836 266832 268837
      266841 264846 263852 263858 265862 270882 270896 271900
      273905 275913 277920 277928 277933 281935 287936 290939
      296943 299941 303937 299913 299907 297902 298896 299890
      307874 310864 307854 314838 324822 343790 353775 362758
      372743 381725 391711 401692 404683 409674 412671 417669
      425662 432655
 0.01 342098 341091 338086 336080 340076 340073 334073 329075
      326076 327080 329085 331090 335095 340100 342098
 0.01 251002 251000 251998 249996 248994 246995 244995 243996
      242997 241998 241000 241002 242004 243006 245006 247006
      249004 251002
 0.01 233834 233832 231830 229829 227831 225833 225835 227837
      229838 231836 233834
 0.25 550159 547157 545158 544160 543165 542168 540171 538175
      537178 536182 534185 535188 536191 536196 535201 536206
      537209 539211
 0.25 532138 532137 531135 530135 529133 528135 527137 528139
      529140 530142 531141 532138
 0.25 504629 498632 495636 489647 483656 478666 471676 463685
      448702 441709 435720 431731 428743 427750 424754 419753
      416759 417764 420769 421774 418778 406782 398789 391797
      388801 387806 389808 396809 401807 406803 411801 414801
      416803 418810 425810 425799 428793 433790 436787 437780
      437771 439765 444761 448758 453756 459756 464752 466746
      470733 475723 482713 488705 501702 505698 509698 514696
      518692 519687 518678 518673 516666 511644
 0.25 459108 460106 458104 456101 452095 444090 442087 442081
      439077 437075 429071 422067 417062 413060 408060 401062
      396067 394071 394075 396080 398083 405081 411079 415080
      419083 424089 425093 424099 419107 416108 413104 409098
      406100 404104 400109 396112 398115 405118 411117 414116
      419118 425122 429123 431120 437114 450112 448120 444128
      439136 439141 440144 443148 447148 450146 451142 448134
      452127 455115 459108
 0.25 433220 435215 432212 434210 434207 433203 430204 429206
      427210 425213 424215 424218 427220 431220 433220
 0.25 434088 433086 432086 430087 431088 433088 434088
 0.25 428985 429975 428966 424954 421948 416945 409936 406931
      402927 398931 397936 398938 403952 409962 416970 419975
      421982 422990 424992 426990 427987 428985
 0.25 396163 396162 394163 396164 396163
 0.25 378709 376708 373709 367712 363716 358720 339734 331741
      326747 323751 318761 314766 311770 305780 302785 298788
      296790 297793 301797 306799 312799 319799 323799 326797
      333789 341779 347770 354760 360750 366740 371729 376719
      378709
 0.25 379017 380010 379006 377994 374985 371982 368980 362980
      359982 354989 357998 359009 360014 362018 365021 370022
      375021 378019 379017
 0.25 334058 335056 334055 332054 330054 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334058 334058
 0.25 304085 304074 301072 296070 286068 275067 264066 258067
      259069 264076 270081 277086 287089 295090 300089 304087
      304085
 0.25 300842 300835 298829 296824 292821 282821 278824 276828
      271837 270842 269849 270856 272861 275865 279868 284870
      287870 290868 295859 298851 300842
 0.25 279807 277803 273801 268800 263800 260801 256802 253806
      255810 260810 265810 271809 276809 279807
 0.50 408105 408103 408101 407103 406105 407106 408105 446099
445098
      443099 444100 446099
 0.50 548170 546172 546174 546177 546180 546183 546185
 0.50 504639 504637 502637 501638 499640 499641 498643 498645
      498646 499647 499648 501650 502649 503647 504646 504644
      504641 504640 504639
 0.50 491672 492669 491667 489665 488664 486665 485666 485667
      484669 483672 483674 483677 484679 485679 486678 488677
      489675 490673 491672
 0.50 473698 469693 466692 462694 458699 455703 450705 446708
      443713 440717 439724 438730 439738 439742 442744 448743
      450738 452733 455720 461711 465714 468715 470714 470707
      472701 473698
 0.50 438748 439745 437744 436744 434745 434747 434749 436749
      438748 438748
 0.50 424975 424970 422966 419956 414947 409940 403933 400933
      399938 403947 407954 412963 417969 421971 423972 424975
      424975
 0.50 415069 414064 412063 409063 407063 403064 401066 400067
      398070 396073 397077 399079 401079 404077 406076 408074
      411073 413071 415069
 0.50 404797 404794 402793 400794 398795 397796 395798 394800
      395802 397802 399802 401801 402800 403799 404797 404797
 0.50 369721 367717 365719 358725 347734 343739 337744 329756
      325762 322768 322772 324775 330777 333776 336773 340768
      350758 354751 358745 365732 369721
 0.50 373010 374003 373997 371993 369990 364988 361992 361998
      362003 363009 365013 368015 372012 373010
 0.50 299082 298076 291073 284072 276071 271070 265070 267074
      272079 276082 283084 288085 293085 299082
 0.50 295836 295830 292824 289823 285823 280826 277832 275836
      273843 274849 278854 284855 289852 292847 294843 295836
 0.50 269804 269803 267802 265802 263802 261802 259803 258803
      258804 257805 258805 260805 261805 263805 265805 267805
      269804 269804
 1.00 417961 417959 416957 414956 412954 410952 410954 411956
      412958 412959 414960 415961 416962 417961
 1.00 292835 292830 291827 289825 285825 282827 281829 279832
      279834 277838 277840 277842 279845 283845 286843 288841
      290839 291837 292835
 1.50 290835 291830 289827 285827 283829 281831 280834 279838
      279840 281842 283842 285841 287839 289837 290835
 2.00 290831 289830 288829 287828 285828 284829 282831 282832
      281834 280835 280836 280838 281839 283839 284839 286838
      287837 288836 289835 289833 290831
 3.00 287831 286830 284831 284832 283833 283835 284836 285835
      286835 287833 287831 287831

$$





000
NZUS99 KLUB 010808
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010823
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
308 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.17 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010803
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
302 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010817
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
302 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.16 inches,

$$



000
FOUS30 KWBC 010759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW TLH 25 WNW GNV 10 NNE OCF 20 SW VVG 20 NNW BKV
30 WSW CTY 35 SW 40J 20 SE AAF 15 WSW AAF 15 SSW TLH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW AMA 15 S DUX 10 W HHF 30 NW CSM 20 SE HBR 20 SSE FDR
40 SSE CDS 25 SSW CDS 35 SSW AMA.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES...WHICH FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES AZ ON ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...FL...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS FL DURING DAY 1. THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW CELL MOTION
DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.

HAYES
$$




000
FOUS30 KWBC 010759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW TLH 25 WNW GNV 10 NNE OCF 20 SW VVG 20 NNW BKV
30 WSW CTY 35 SW 40J 20 SE AAF 15 WSW AAF 15 SSW TLH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW AMA 15 S DUX 10 W HHF 30 NW CSM 20 SE HBR 20 SSE FDR
40 SSE CDS 25 SSW CDS 35 SSW AMA.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES...WHICH FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES AZ ON ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...FL...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS FL DURING DAY 1. THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW CELL MOTION
DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.

HAYES
$$





000
FOUS30 KWBC 010759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015

...VALID 12Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z SUN AUG 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW TLH 25 WNW GNV 10 NNE OCF 20 SW VVG 20 NNW BKV
30 WSW CTY 35 SW 40J 20 SE AAF 15 WSW AAF 15 SSW TLH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW AMA 15 S DUX 10 W HHF 30 NW CSM 20 SE HBR 20 SSE FDR
40 SSE CDS 25 SSW CDS 35 SSW AMA.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES...WHICH FEEDS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES AZ ON ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...FL...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS FL DURING DAY 1. THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW CELL MOTION
DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL.

HAYES
$$




000
NZUS99 KLUB 010748
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010803
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
248 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.15 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010738
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010753
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
238 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010738
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010753
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
238 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010728
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
228 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010743
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
228 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010718
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
218 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010733
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
218 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010708
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010723
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
208 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010702
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010717
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
202 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
NZUS99 KLUB 010702
QPFLUB

WEST TEXAS MESONET RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


TXC303-TXC369-TXC189-TXC075-TXC125-010717
LUBBOCK-PARMER-HALE-CHILDRESS-DICKENS-
202 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015


A COLLECTION OF TODAYS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE REGION.

Tulia 1.12 inches,

$$



000
FXUS04 KWBC 010655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE  BIGGEST DIFFERENCE). A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARM/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHERE
LOCAL UPSLOPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO SHOULD HELP FOCUS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ...AREAS
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. FOR THIS MOST
PART...THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV...MAINLY AFTER 01/18Z. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AND NEARBY EAST CENTRAL CA.
WHILE THE BASIN AVERAGE QPF VALUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50
INCHES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
SUGGEST THAT LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z WRF ARW AND 00Z NAM CONEST)
SUGGEST LOCAL 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THESE
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...A SEE TEXT WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ. SHOULD THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY...THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL DURING
DAY 1. THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS SLOW
CELL MOTION DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FL. THERE WAS
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE MAXIMUM QPF (OVER LAND AS OPPOSED TO JUST OFFSHORE). THE
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WILL RESULT IN A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT SERVES TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...WHICH TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2.25+ INCHES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE MID LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. OVER THIS
AREA...1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN KCTY AND KBKV.

THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS 00Z
REGIONAL/GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PLACING 3.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACED MAXIMUM NEAR 8 INCHES (INCLUDING THE 00Z
WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM..WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 11 INCHES
OF QPF) IN THIS AREA...OR JUST OFFSHORE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE
PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW
CELL/CLUSTER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO
WHETHER THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE OR ON LAND
OVER NORTHWEST FL...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE
WPC QPF. IN ANY EVENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW CELL MOTIONS NECESSITATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FL AND NEARBY SOUTHEAST GA.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
DURING DAY 1. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE
WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
REGION...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE QPF WAS AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB
AS NEEDED TO BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BEST QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TACKING FROM SD INTO IA SHOULD PUSH ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE SIPHONED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FEED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS NE/IA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CLUSTERS OR LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOPPING 1.50 INCHES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRY MID LEVELS AT THE
TIME OF CONVECTION INITIATION...WHICH SUPPORTS LESS OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. ALONG THIS TRACK...0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAS MAXIMUM QPF
AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH NOT IN THE SAME
LOCATION. THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEPING MOVING
DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHEAST...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW TAPS INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE (AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR QPF WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE
PRODUCING THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS.

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY DURING DAY 1 TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 01/18Z. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
(AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION)...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS ENOUGH
TO TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
FUNNELED PRIMARILY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTED INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. THE BEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE 02/00Z. GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN VT/NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ME.


HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 537183 539173 539164 539143 539135 539126 537118 533114
      530114 529115 526121 524128 522131 519132 516131 514133
      510136 508143 507152 510159 513164 517169 522173 526177
      529181 530184 533186 537183
 0.01 542939 542928 541916 540909 539906 539891 538882 535875
      528863 525857 520850 512839 503824 503814 502810 499806
      494802 488803 484796 479790 475785 472779 465766 461759
      457748 465734 480708 487694 490686 492678 492671 488665
      477661 471660 467663 465666 455677 439703 435709 430714
      419723 421728 425728 428730 430741 429749 426755 422761
      418767 416774 413781 410784 408787 408794 409801 411805
      414808 417809 419808 424803 429798 434792 437787 439780
      441777 443776 446783 453800 461816 464821 463826 461829
      451840 433861 428868 427870 425867 420853 412842 408842
      405844 407852 409860 410870 407880 408887 412894 413897
      413899 406914 404921 402923 398923 393918 391915 388915
      382920 380926 382934 385943 389949 393953 399970 401974
      401980 401989 403009 405016 409021 414025 421025 426021
      431016 439005 450991 453985 455982 459984 459980 462976
      467973 467969 467963 463958 460957 458958 456955 458951
      461945 465941 466939 470937 474938 475943 475956 476965
      478976 481986 487990 491990 494988 496986 497982 501975
      504969 504957 499943 497932 497928 499928 502936 505942
      508949 513955 517960 520963 524963 532963 538957 540953
      541949 542941 542939
 0.01 492871 492868 491866 490869 490871 491873 492871
 0.01 438221 440213 438209 433205 430206 422208 418210 416208
      416205 397165 394154 392149 389144 386142 383138 382133
      384128 385120 384118 384113 386108 387100 391090 391084
      390075 386052 381043 377040 375036 377032 378024 381020
      383015 383008 382002 378988 373981 369978 363978 353979
      348979 342979 336981 333984 326991 321000 309002 301006
      293010 286017 285020 288022 299024 307024 311022 316021
      321021 330029 337035 338038 337041 334045 327050 326055
      326062 325074 324078 322080 316079 309078 304076 294073
      282071 271068 261065 250064 245064 240064 239067 240070
      241076 246083 250087 254091 261097 269103 277107 286111
      296114 305119 317123 327122 330121 332122 333129 331144
      332148 335151 337156 338161 339167 343169 348170 353169
      357172 360177 361183 364189 367194 371197 379202 383205
      389207 392206 398208 410225 412229 418231 428229 434225
      438221
 0.01 425696 424690 423686 420684 417683 409685 404691 395702
      386714 383720 380727 378736 378740 380743 382745 386745
      393743 399738 404732 413720 421709 425696
 0.01 345676 341692 334705 331713 326720 319733 315740 311747
      304759 294769 280780 273784 270787 269791 267793 262793
      257797 253805 254810 256812 264815 259823 259825 262827
      268832 269843 268845 268850 270874 270880 269885 265890
      261897 257904 254911 252918 250921 250927 251933 252938
      255945 258954 261957 265956 267954 269950 270945 271942
      274935 278927 280923 282927 286933 290933 294931 297924
      301916 304901 306892 307888 309884 313877 318870 327857
      331851 333848 333844 335825 336820 337817 341808 359748
      363741 365733 370717 370713 370707 371700 373688 372677
      372672 371669 368664 365662
 0.25 530162 531159 530157 530155 530154 529152 527151 527150
      526149 524148 522148 521148 520149 519150 518151 518153
      519156 520157 522159 523160 525161 526162 528163 529163
      530162
 0.25 523905 523896 522888 521880 519874 514864 508856 501850
      499849 499853 501860 506870 510882 513895 515902 517908
      520912 522910 523907 523905
 0.25 477684 474678 472677 469678 461686 457691 454696 448707
      445712 443720 440733 441738 443739 447738 449731 453725
      455721 460717 468707 470702 473695 476691 477684
 0.25 452947 452945 452942 451940 451937 451935 450933 449932
      448931 447931 445932 445933 443935 443937 443940 443941
      444942 445944 445945 447947 449949 450949 452947
 0.25 444909 444902 443894 441891 436891 432893 429892 426888
      424883 419876 414877 412880 413886 415890 417893 422895
      425905 426909 429912 434913 440912 444909
 0.25 426997 425988 427978 426969 424965 421962 416957 413949
      409943 405938 402935 398935 396938 396943 398951 400959
      407973 410980 412984 412987 410998 410005 411010 413012
      419015 422014 423011 425999 426997
 0.25 393174 394170 393167 392164 389162 387162 385163 384165
      383170 384173 385176 387178 389178 392176 393174
 0.25 388196 388192 386187 383184 379181 374181 370182 366185
      369188 372191 376194 381196 385198 388197 388196
 0.25 379085 380076 378070 373059 370054 366050 360048 356048
      354049 353053 354056 356062 354068 349072 345075 343082
      344087 348086 351088 356090 360090 362087 365076 370077
      372082 373086 375087 379085
 0.25 362713 362707 361703 358701 355700 351704 347710 339721
      330733 315753 306763 302770 299777 293789 291795 289798
      287800 281802 278803 276801 273798 270797 263799 259802
      259804 261806 266806 272807 276806 278809 279817 277824
      277842 276878 275886 272892 268897 263903 260908 257915
      255923 254930 255934 257936 263939 267935 270929 274923
      276915 280910 285908 291905 295904 296898 295895 294891
      296887 299881 304876 307871 309869 309864 311857 313854
      316852 320847 323840 324832 325826 324821 323816 326810
      332796 335790 337782 342769 348756 359729 362721 362713
 0.25 367124 366119 362116 358114 355111 351109 347110 344114
      343118 343123 346127 349129 355130 358129 362127 366125
      367124
 0.25 368021 370013 369008 368000 367993 364990 359988 348986
      338989 337991 337993 337998 337002 337010 338017 341020
      350026 357031 361030 364027 368021
 0.25 345101 346098 346096 346094 346093 345092 345090 344087
      343086 342087 341088 340089 339090 338091 338093 337095
      338097 338098 339100 339101 341102 343102 345101 345101
 0.25 311103 311097 309094 306090 302088 293085 283082 274081
      264081 263083 264085 268088 274093 281098 288102 297106
      306106 311103
 0.50 412968 413963 412961 410959 409955 407952 405949 404947
      402946 399947 400952 401954 402957 403960 405963 407965
      409968 410970 412968
 0.50 358718 357712 354709 348715 337731 328744 315759 310766
      306772 301781 298790 296801 293808 283812 281821 281824
      280830 280840 280852 280865 280878 281883 283887 287888
      289885 295876 299867 304863 306857 307851 307839 312837
      314834 316829 316824 317813 318808 322804 329789 337771
      346754 353737 356727 358718
 0.50 363012 362005 359002 357998 353993 350991 346990 340993
      339998 340002 342011 345017 351022 357022 361016 363012
 0.50 299101 300099 300097 300096 299095 298094 296093 295093
      293092 291092 289091 288093 289094 290096 291097 292098
      294100 295100 296101 297101 299101 299101
 0.50 280902 281900 281898 280897 278896 277898 276898 276900
      277901 277902 279903 280902 280902
 0.50 269802 268802 266801 265802 264802 265803 267803 268802
      269802
 0.50 273910 274904 269903 264905 262908 261912 259917 259921
      259925 261930 263931 266929 269927 271923 272919 273913
      273910
 1.00 351729 350726 347725 344729 340736 329749 324756 319763
      309777 305784 303789 302793 302800 303805 306808 308809
      311808 322795 329779 338763 341755 344746 351729
 1.00 352011 352009 352007 352004 351002 350000 349999 348998
      346998 345000 345002 346003 346004 346006 347009 349011
      351012 352011
 1.00 312828 311826 311825 310824 310822 309820 308820 307820
      306823 306825 307826 308827 309828 310829 311830 312828
 1.00 304842 300832 298823 295820 293815 288815 286818 284829
      283840 284852 284858 285864 288867 292866 297859 299855
      300851 304842
 1.00 265917 266915 266913 265911 264910 264911 263913 262914
      262915 262916 263917 264918 265917
 1.50 339746 337745 332749 326758 320768 314777 310782 308788
      307794 310801 314799 318796 324785 328774 334763 338753
      339746
 1.50 300842 300838 299834 297828 294823 292821 288820 285827
      285833 285842 285848 285856 288861 291860 293858 296853
      298848 300842
 2.00 329766 329764 328762 327763 325764 323766 323767 322768
      321769 320771 320772 319774 319775 319776 319777 321777
      322776 322775 324774 325773 326771 327769 328768 329766
      329766
 2.00 317785 316784 314784 313785 312786 311788 311789 311790
      313790 314790 315788 315787 316786 317785
 2.00 298842 299838 298834 296828 292824 289823 286829 286835
      286843 286852 287855 289857 293853 296847 298842
 3.00 296841 296836 295834 293831 291828 291826 288827 288831
      287833 287837 287841 288845 288850 289852 291849 291847
      292844 294843 296841
 4.00 292839 292837 291836 291835 289834 289835 289837 289839
      290840 292839 292839

$$





000
FXUS04 KWBC 010655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/1200 UTC THRU AUG 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH TX AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OK...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF (LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTH
TX BEING THE  BIGGEST DIFFERENCE). A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO PRODUCE THE LARGE SCALE WPC QPF...AND THE 00Z
WRF ARM/00Z REGIONAL GEM WERE USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAXIMUM QPF.

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TX SHOULD PRODUCE AN
MCV...WHICH CROSSES NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN ITS PATH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS NORTH
TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS AFTER 02/00Z...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 02/06Z ACROSS
NORTH TX...WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST OK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
MODEL COMMONALITY AMONG 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE...IT IT NOT CLEAR
IF A FULL BLOWN MCS DEVELOPS IN THE PRESENCE OP THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR NOW...A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS USED FOR QPF. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE
00Z REGIONAL GEM...00Z WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST) PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS MAKES
THAT PLAUSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK WAS RETAINED FOR THIS AREA.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN CONTINUES DURING DAY 1...WHICH FEEDS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL
SIGNAL THAT A SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO CROSSES
AZ ON ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NV. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW MORE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...LOCALLY
HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NV/NORTHERN CA. THE 00Z NAM/GFS WERE MORE GENEROUS WITH
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS LESS
GENEROUS WITH BOTH...SO FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/12Z
ECMWF WAS USED TO CREATE THE LARGER SCALE WPC QPF. THE 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS WERE EMPLOYED TO BETTER DEFINE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AND NV.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING
OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ) AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION NM/AZ INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA AND MUCH OF NV.
INITIALLY...TH