000
FZHW50 PHFO 250503
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
HIZ005>011-251900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BUILD TO HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 30
FEET WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL INCREASE TO HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 20
FEET WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL RISE TO HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET
WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY NOV 30:
THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AFTER PEAKING WEDNESDAY. SURF IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY...PUSHING SURF BACK TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM
REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
4 DAYS.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 7 NNW 15 12 16 DOWN 11-16 ENE SAME
11/23 6 ENE 8 2 4 SAME
3 SSW 15 4 6 SAME
TUE 6 NNW 13 10 12 DOWN MED 11-16 ENE SAME
11/24 6 ENE 8 2 4 SAME MED
2 SSW 14 2 4 DOWN LOW
WED 14 NW 16 30 38 UP HIGH 17-21 ENE UP
11/25 7 ENE 8 4 6 UP LOW
2 SSW 12 2 4 DOWN LOW
THU 11 NNW 14 20 26 DOWN MED 17-21 ENE SAME
11/26 8 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW
FRI 7 NNW 13 12 14 DOWN MED 17-21 E SAME
11/27 8 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW
SAT 7 NNW 16 12 16 UP LOW 17-21 E SAME
11/28
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
WINTER-TYPE SURF ON TAP.
DETAILED...
MID MONDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 315-340 DEGREES
WITH 13-17 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY A STORM- TO
HURRICANE-FORCE SYSTEM OVER 2200 NM AWAY NEAR KAMCHATKA LAST
THURSDAY. THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MODERATE TO NEAR
HIGH BRACKET ON TUESDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION.
THE JET STREAM TRACK SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LATE LAST WEEK OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. MODELS SHOW A WINTER-TYPE
PATTERN THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WITH OVERLAPPING HIGH EPISODES.
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKED FROM KAMCHATKA EAST ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS LAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERE GALES IN THE 325-335
DEGREE BAND. THIS SOURCE ALONE WOULD ONLY RESULT IN MODERATE SURF
LOCALLY...YET A FOLLOWUP SYSTEM HAS ACTED UPON THE EXISTING SEAS
FROM THE FORMER SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORMED OFF THE KURIL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
A AMPLIFYING JET STREAM TROUGH STEERING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
EAST. STORM-FORCE WINDS CENTERED ON 320 DEGREES RELATIVE TO HAWAII
SET UP FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RESULTANT CAPTURED FETCH
DUE TO THE SYSTEM TRAVELING AT SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE GROWING SEAS.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...QUIKSCAT SHOWED SEVERE GALES TO NEAR 1000 NM FROM
HAWAII IN THE 315-330 DEGREE BAND. COMBINED WITH THE OTHER ALEUTIAN
SOURCE...AND CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY TO HAWAII...THIS SPELLS
EXTRA-LARGE TO GIANT SURF FOR NORTHERN SHORES OF OAHU. MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM RACING TO THE NE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TURNING OFF THE SOURCE FROM 315-330 DEGREES.
ONE ASPECT OF A RELATIVELY NEARBY SOURCE IS TYPICALLY A RAPID
RISE...WHICH IS EXPECTED IN THE WEE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SURF SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY AT DAWN...WITH THE EPISODE PEAKING
MID DAY FROM 310-330 DEGREES. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO
PEAK FACE AT THE MOMENT OF MAXIMUM CRESTING IN ZONES OF HIGHEST
REFRACTION. WAVES BREAK IN WATER DEPTHS SIMILAR TO WAVE
HEIGHTS...THUS THESE TYPE EPISODES RESULT IN HIGHEST BREAKERS ON
OUTER REEFS IN DEEPER WATERS. SURF HEIGHTS AT HIGHEST NEAR SHORE
SPOTS ARE USUALLY ABOUT 30% LOWER.
THE EPISODE SHOULD REMAIN EXTRA-LARGE...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS
ON OUTER REEFS...INTO THE HOLIDAY...AND FALL OFF STEADILY ON FRIDAY
AS THE DIRECTION BROADENS FROM 315-360 DEGREES. THE AMOUNT OF SWELL
FROM 340-360 DEGREES SHOULD BE MODERATE OR LESS SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THAT DIRECTIONAL SWATH RELATIVE TO HAWAII FOR
LESS THAN A DAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE KURILS ON
TUESDAY...CROSSING THE DATELINE ON WEDNESDAY...AND NOSING SEVERE
GALES TO WITHIN ABOUT 1800 NM OF HAWAII. A MARGINALLY HIGH EPISODE
IS EXPECTED LOCALLY BUILDING SATURDAY FROM 315-330 DEGREES.
MID MONDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS UNDER
MODERATE TRADES FROM 50-80 DEGREES. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
TRADES FRESHENING BY WEDNESDAY...HOLDING ABOUT THE SAME INTO
SATURDAY. WINDSWELL SHOULD BUILD TO MODERATE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND
HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID MONDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS INFREQUENT MODERATE SETS FROM
190-200 DEGREES. A SYSTEM TO THE SE OF NEW ZEALAND WEAKENED RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKED EAST. THIS EPISODE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY AND FADE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...A SMALL NEW ZEALAND EPISODE IS POSSIBLE
LOCALLY NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER...BOTH FROM 180-200 DEGREES.
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...BACK-TO-BACK EPISODES INTO THE HIGH
BRACKET ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ABOUT A 3 DAY SPACING BETWEEN
EPISODE ARRIVAL. TRADES MOST DAYS WITH PEAK DAYS IN THE FRESH TO
STRONG RANGE.
LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...NOVEMBER 25.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS CP/NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
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