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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 302033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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